Over the past 3 months, 9 analysts have published their opinion on Ovintiv (NYSE:OVV) stock. These analysts are typically employed by large Wall Street banks and tasked with understanding a company's business to predict how a stock will trade over the upcoming year. Latest Ratings for OVV DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021Seaport GlobalInitiates Coverage OnBuy Aug 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight Aug 2021Cowen & Co.UpgradesMarket PerformOutperform View More Analyst Ratings for OVV View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Over the past 3 months, 6 analysts have published their opinion on Mirati Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MRTX) stock. These analysts are typically employed by large Wall Street banks and tasked with understanding a company's business to predict how a stock will trade over the upcoming year. Latest Ratings for MRTX DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021StifelInitiates Coverage OnBuy Sep 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight Sep 2021OppenheimerMaintainsPerform View More Analyst Ratings for MRTX View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Fisker (NYSE:FSR) has observed the following analyst ratings within the last quarter: Latest Ratings for FSR DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021Tudor PickeringInitiates Coverage OnBuy Sep 2021B of A SecuritiesDowngradesBuyNeutral Aug 2021Morgan StanleyInitiates Coverage OnOverweight View More Analyst Ratings for FSR View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Analysts have provided the following ratings for TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) within the last quarter: Latest Ratings for TRU DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight Aug 2021BarclaysMaintainsOverweight Jul 2021Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy View More Analyst Ratings for TRU View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Over the past 3 months, 6 analysts have published their opinion on Equifax (NYSE:EFX) stock. These analysts are typically employed by large Wall Street banks and tasked with understanding a company's business to predict how a stock will trade over the upcoming year. Latest Ratings for EFX DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight Aug 2021BarclaysMaintainsOverweight Jul 2021Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight View More Analyst Ratings for EFX View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Within the last quarter, Chart Industries (NYSE:GTLS) has observed the following analyst ratings: Latest Ratings for GTLS DateFirmActionFromTo Sep 2021Wells FargoInitiates Coverage OnOverweight Sep 2021Goldman SachsInitiates Coverage OnNeutral Sep 2021BarclaysInitiates Coverage OnOverweight View More Analyst Ratings for GTLS View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Michigan Gov. Whitmer Bans Masks/Vaxx Mandates As Polls Crash, Re-Election Fight Looks Grim Authored by Thomas Lifson via AmericanThinker.com, Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, early on distinguished herself as a pandemic hypocrite, demanding severe lockdowns of her citizens subjects while exempting her family and herself.  Her husband was caught boating when she had forbidden ordinary Michiganders to do the same, and she was caught traveling to Florida, violating her own proclamations. Resentment has grown, and not even an FBI informant–led bogus kidnapping plot has been enough to keep her polls strong as she faces re-election in November 2022.  Mary Chastain of Legal Insurrection spotted Whitmer signing legislation that specifically banned the state from enforcing mask mandates and vaccine passports: Whitmer and the Michigan state legislature agreed on a budget. This is no ordinary budget because it bans mask mandates and vaccine passports: Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the state legislature have agreed on a budget proposal that includes language banning health officials from enforcing mask mandates in schools and preventing state public agencies from enforcing vaccines on employees or customers. "The director or local health officer shall not issue or enforce any orders or other directives that require an individual in this state who is under the age of 18 to wear a face mask or face covering," the 1,000-page budget states in one section. Chastain notes that school districts are still free to enforce mask mandates. The reason for Whitmer's reversal is not hard to figure out.  Her polls stink. The Hill reports on a Trafalgar Group poll that shows her six points behind former Detroit police chief James Craig (who notably kept the peace there as Minneapolis and other cities were burning): Top ArticlesREAD MORERepeal the 17th Amendment Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) trails former Detroit Police Chief James Craig by 6 points in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a poll released this week.  The survey from the GOP-leaning Trafalgar Group shows Craig, a Republican, leading Whitmer 50.4 percent to 44.4 percent among likely general election voters. Another 5.2 percent of respondents remain undecided.  Craig, who retired as Detroit police chief in June after nearly eight years on the job, announced his campaign for governor earlier this month at the urging of top Michigan Republicans.  Trafalgar may be right-leaning, but other polls also indicate trouble.  The Detroit News: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's job approval has fallen to a point where Michigan voters are nearly split about how she is doing, according to a new poll released Monday, marking a large decline from prior surveys. The decrease has occurred as the Aug. 31-Sept. 3 survey by the Glengariff Group found that a majority of 600 registered voters said the state is on the wrong track and that they disapprove by a wide margin of the job that President Joe Biden is doing.  About 48% of voters approve of the Democratic governor's performance and 46% disapprove, according to the poll commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber, whose political action committee in 2018 endorsed Whitmer over Republican Bill Schuette for governor. The latest numbers are a marked shift from September 2020, when 59% of voters approved of Whitmer's performance and 38% disapproved (snip) Much of Whitmer's approval decline has occurred among independent voters, 39% of whom approved of her performance and 51% of whom disapproved, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. "Michigan elections are decided by independent voters and how she does with these independent voters moving forward will really dictate" her performance in the 2022  election, said Richard Czuba, a pollster with the Lansing-based Glengariff Group.  It looks as though, worldwide, resentment and rebellion against lockdowns and other severe restrictions are on the rise.  The fact that so many politicians exempt themselves and their families from the masking and other restrictions they place on those they regard as inferiors isn't helping. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 12:30.....»»

Developing a complete infrastructure for firms to thrive is crucial, said BioLabs@NYULangone Director Glennis Mehra To view the full story, click the title link......»»

The parent of Crain's New York Business has acquired Green Market Report, a NYC-based digital media company that covers financial news in the cannabis industry To view the full story, click the title link......»»

Firms face a balancing act of restoring normalcy while easing back into corporate life at a time Covid is still raging To view the full story, click the title link......»»

Fewer than 250 employees declined to get vaccinated To view the full story, click the title link......»»

New York is starting to disburse $550M this week from the Excluded Workers Fund To view the full story, click the title link......»»

Dr. Howard Zucker had served in his role since 2015 To view the full story, click the title link......»»

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Biden Pushing For Dishonourable Discharges, Court Martials For Troops Who Refuse Vaccines.....»»

Spike In California Jobless Sparks Surge In Americans Applying For First-Time Unemployment Benefits After unexpectedly rising in the prior week (perhaps due to Hurricane Ida's impact), analysts expected jobless claims to drop back to post-COVID lows last week - but they were very wrong as 351k Americans filed for first-time jobless claims (way worse than the 320k expected). That is the highest in 7 weeks... Source: Bloomberg California dominated the states seeing the biggest rise in jobless claims, while Louisiana saw the biggest drop... Additionally, continuing claims jumped from 2.665mm to 2.845mm (also well above expectations of a drop to 2.60mm). On the bright side, over 700,000 Americans left the pandemic emergency benefits roles... But, there are still over 11 million Americans on some form of government dole... Source: Bloomberg Finally, we note that this week was the September non-farm-payrolls survey period, so that may bode ill for the jobs data (that admittedly Powell has somewhat played down in importance with regard to the taper decision). Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:39.....»»

Peter Schiff Slams "The Fed That Cried Taper" Via SchiffGold.com, The Federal Reserve wrapped up its September FOMC meeting Wednesday and once again left its extraordinary loose “emergency” monetary policy in place. Quantitative easing continues unabated. Interest rates remain at zero. But the Fed did signal it may begin to taper quantitative easing “soon.” In his podcast, Peter Schiff broke down the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. He said he thinks when it comes to tightening monetary policy, the Fed is bluffing. This was a highly-anticipated Fed meeting. Peter wondered why, because after all of the speculation leading up to these FOMC meetings, the Fed always says pretty much the same thing. The economy is great. Everything is going great. The labor market is strong. Inflation is contained. Yet, we’re not raising rates. We’re not tapering our asset purchase program. Everything is great, but we’re not going to remove any of the emergency monetary policy supports that we implemented when everything was terrible. Even though everything is now great, we’re still going to continue with these policies, because even though it’s not great, it’s not perfect.” But the Fed did indicate it may begin to taper asset purchases “soon.” If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.” As far as raising interest rates — now referred to as liftoff — more members of the FOMC now think that might happen as early as next year. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly goes out of his way to assure everybody that liftoff is still a long way off and that the central bankers aren’t yet considering a timeline for rate hikes. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed won’t begin raising rates until the taper is complete. That means nobody can put a timeline on liftoff until we have a timeline on tapering. The FOMC downgraded its economic growth forecast to a 5.9% GDP increase this year compared with its 7% forecast in June. On the inflation front, the Fed now acknowledges that prices are rising faster than they projected. The new forecast is for core inflation to increase 3.7% this year. That compares with a 3% projection in June. Even while acknowledging surging prices, Powell continues to blame it completely on supply chain problems. These bottleneck effects have been larger and longer-lasting than anticipated. While these supply effects are prominent for now, they will abate. And as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal.” As Peter points out, the Fed never once takes any responsibility for surging inflation. In the Fed’s world, none of it is a function of monetary policy. It’s got nothing to do with too much money. It’s just not enough stuff. Of course, Powell continues to promise that if inflation does become a bigger problem, the Fed has the tools to fight it. Peter said that is a bluff. If the Fed was actually willing to use the tools, it would have already used them. The fact those tools are still buried in the shed someplace proves that they have no intention of using those tools, even if they can find them.” Once again, everybody was looking for the Fed to lay out a plan for tapering QE. And once again, the Fed just talked vaguely about slowing the pace of asset purchases. All Powell and Company said was that they may begin a gradual tapering process soon- maybe. Note all of the conditional words in the Fed statement. Tapering “may soon be warranted.” Of course, that means it may not soon be warranted. And what exactly does “soon” mean? What does “a moderation” in the pace of asset purchases mean? During the Q&A session, Powell said he thought the taper would be finished by the end of next year. But we’re almost through September and there is no taper. Powell reiterated that they haven’t made the decision to taper and there is no tapering timetable other than it will be “gradual.” Peter said if they were really close to tapering, there would have at least decided on a timetable. They would say, ‘Hey, this is how we’re going to do it, and we’re just going to implement it at some time, but they would already have decided on some type of framework.’ But according to Powell, they haven’t even had those discussions yet. They’re holding off on those discussions until they’ve already decided to taper. And they’re not even going to make that decision until sometime in the future.” The earliest projection for the taper to begin is maybe in December. If the earliest they can actually start the taper is in December – and Powell repeatedly said that the taper is going to be a very gradual process. It’s going to happen very slowly. Well, if it’s going to be finished by the middle of 2022, then you’re going to have to wrap the whole thing up in six months. Well, how is that slow? You’re going from $120 billion a month and you’re going to taper that to zero — in six months? That would not be slow. That would be pretty rapid, especially considering the pace of the last taper. So, to me, this just proves that the whole thing is a show. They’re not thinking about tapering.” Peter said the reality is that the Fed is continuing to bluff that it has everything under control. It doesn’t. In this podcast, Peter also talks about how Fed policies disproportionately hurt African Americans, Republicans and the debt ceiling, Evergrande and what gold will do when the markets realize the Fed is crying wolf. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:53.....»»

Turkish Lira Plunges To All Time Low After Surprise Rate Cut By The Erdogan Central Bank Turkey’s currency plunged to a new all time low, with the USDTRY rising as high as 8.8017 after Erdogan's central bank unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 18% on Thursday, delivering stimulus long sought by President Erdogan despite soaring inflation. The central bank was widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 19%, where they had been since March, given inflation soaered to 19.25% last month, the highest level since Turkey's FX crisis in 2018. Only two of 17 polled economists had predicted a cut. In retrospect, the cut should have been more widely expected after Governor Sahap Kavcioglu - who is the latest central bank head installed by Erdogan to serve at his behest at the "independent" bank - sounded more dovish in recent weeks, paving the way for Turkey’s first monetary easing since May 2020 and ending a tightening cycle that began 12 months ago. Kavcioglu strategically shifted his emphasis to (lower) core inflation as a reference benchmark, which stood below 17% in August, instead of headline CPI and had said policy was tight enough to cool price rises in the fourth quarter. The Turkish Central Bank is notorious for having its governors - hand picked by Erdogan in recent years - also get fired by Erdogan if they defy the core tenets of "Erdoganomics" and refuse to cut rates to tame soaring inflation. Today, the bank’s policy committee said a rate cut was “needed” because of the lower core price measures - which strip out food and some other goods - as well as shocks to supply in the wake of pandemic measures. The tightness in monetary stance has started to have a higher than envisaged contractionary effect on commercial loans. In addition, macroprudential policy framework has been strengthened to curb personal loan growth. The Committee evaluated the analyses to decompose the impact of demand factors that monetary policy can have an effect, core inflation developments and supply shocks Echoing the Fed, the TCMB said the recent rises in inflation “are due to transitory factors" and added that “the tightness in monetary stance has started to have a higher than envisaged contradictory effect on commercial loans.” “Ridiculous move by the CBRT - but not unexpected. Erdogan gets what Erdogan wants. But inflation is rising and yet they are cutting rates. The CBRT is taking a huge risk with the exchange rate” Blubeay's Tim Ash said of the rate cut. The central bank’s dovish pivot this month had prompted analysts to warn of a “policy mistake” if cuts come too soon, though most predicted they would come before year end. Foreign investors, having had enough of Erdogan's unpredictable authoritariansm, have dumped Turkish assets in recent years due in part to concerns over the political independence of the central bank, given Erdogan ousted its last three governors over a 20-month span due to policy disagreements. A self-described “enemy” of interest rates, Erdogan said in June he spoke to Kavcioglu about the need for a rate cut in August. Last month, he said “we will start to see a fall in rates”. Commenting on the turkish decision, Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey said that “Erdogan gets his way with surprise rate cut ... We think that further aggressive easing is likely over the next year. A few factors seem to have swayed the central bank to commence an easing cycle today. The first is the further decline in core inflation last month, to 16.8% y/y – CBRT Governor Sahap Kavcioglu had recently emphasised the ‘importance of core inflation indicators’ when determining the monetary policy stance.” “The second is that policymakers seem to be concerned about the impact of the tight policy stance on activity. The latest hard activity figures showed that the economy made a soft start to Q3. Finally, Mr. Kavcioglu will have been well aware of what happened to previous CBRT governor’s that defied President Erdogan’s desire for rate cuts and may have moved on policy to save his job The lira tumbled as much as 1.5% and stood at 8.76 against the dollar after earlier touching an all time low of 8.80. Depreciation brings further inflation in Turkey due to imports priced in hard currencies, but according to "Erdoganomics", lower rates lead to lower inflation in a revolutionary overhaul of conventional monetary thinking. “People were set up to be short the currency, there were the comments you had from Erdogan and the whole story of the conflict with the central bank. Obviously the currency has weakened and it will weaken further, but I don’t think you are going to see it blow up completely because there was some positioning for this” said Peter Kisler, emerging markets portfolio manager at Trium Capital. Investor jitters had led to a more than 4% currency devaluation this month. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 09:00.....»»

BP Prepares To Ration Gas At UK Service Stations Amid Supply Woes.....»»

Evergrande Rocked By WSJ Report China "Making Preparations For Its Demise"; EV Unit Stops Paying Staff, Suppliers Update (0810ET): Piling on to the chaotic swings in Evergrande, Bloomberg reports that the embattled property developer's electric-car unit has missed salary payments to some of its employees and has fallen behind on paying a number of suppliers for factory equipment, according to people familiar with the matter. Most employees at Evergrande NEV are paid at the start of every month and again on the 20th, however for some mid-level managers, the second installment for September hasn’t arrived, the people said. Several equipment suppliers, meanwhile, began withdrawing their on-site personnel from the Shanghai and Guangzhou sites as early as July after payments for machinery in Evergrande NEV’s factories weren’t made. This is clear evidence that the company's financial fragilities are having an impact beyond its core business. *  *  * It has been a rollercoaster session for Evergrande this morning. It started off optimistically enough, with Evergrande stock - which hit an all time low earlier this week in Hong Kong trading - soaring as much as 30% on furious short covering in early trading following news that the company would make an interest payment on local bonds... ... even though the big question for today was whether foreign creditors, who are also owed an $83.5 million interest payment Thursday, would get their money. In a few hours we will learn the fate of Evergrande's offshore bonds — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 22, 2021 Evergrande pared its gains before the close as selling shareholders took advantage of the price spike to continuing unloading shares, although the mood was decidedly more hopeful than on previous day, and pushed US equity futures sharply higher this morning. Said mood became even more euphoric just after 5am ET when Bloomberg blasted a flashing red headline for a report that China had told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default...  ... in which Bloomberg reported that according to "a person familiar with the matter", financial regulators in Beijing "issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds." The report added that "in a recent meeting with Evergrande representatives, regulators said the company should communicate proactively with bondholders to avoid a default but didn’t give more specific guidance." And while even Bloomberg conceded that the regulatory guidance "offers few clues about what an Evergrande endgame might look like, it does suggest China’s government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer that might roil financial markets and drag down economic growth." In other words, even more good news, with Beijing explicitly demanding that Evergrande should make foreign creditors whole and the implication being that an Evergrande collapse may be avoided. Or so the market though, until exactly one hour later when in a separate flashing red headline... .. Bloomberg informed the world of a story published away in the WSJ, which delivered just the opposite news, namely that "China Makes Preparations for Evergrande’s Demise" and that "authorities are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of China Evergrande Group." The report, which also cited anonymous "officials familiar with the discussions" who may or may not have major financial exposure to Evergrande - which we assume are different anonymous sources from the ones Bloomberg used - signaled "a reluctance to bail out the debt-saddled property developer while bracing for any economic and social fallout from the company’s travails." The WSJ then notes that "officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” but it also gives the suggestion that a nationalization of Evergrande is on the table, quoting those same officials as "saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." They said that local governments have been tasked with preventing unrest and mitigating the ripple effect on home buyers and the broader economy, for example by limiting job losses—scenarios that have grown in likelihood as Evergrande’s situation has worsened. The report also notes that local governments have been ordered to "assemble groups of accountants and legal experts to examine the finances around Evergrande’s operations in their respective regions, talk to local state-owned and private property developers to prepare to take over local real-estate projects and set up law-enforcement teams to monitor public anger and so-called “mass incidents,” a euphemism for protests, according to the people." In other words, just as we explained in "How Evergrande Became Too Big To Fail And Why Beijing Will Have To Bail It Out", Beijing will be dragged in -kicking and screaming - with a bailout of Evergrande one way or another, in order to prevent Beijing's biggest nightmare - mass social unrest. That said, a nationalization scenario does not answer today's $640 billion question: will Evergrande's offshore bondholders be made whole, or will the upcoming nationalization  be part of a broader balance sheet restructuring. What we do know is that as of 645am ET this morning, Bloomberg also reported that two holders of a China Evergrande Group dollar bond with a coupon due later Thursday "said they hadn’t received payment as of 5pm Hong Kong time" with Bloomberg adding that "there was no immediate reply from Evergrande to questions about the interest payment."  In short, total chaos continues, market reaction notwithstanding, and we expect it will get far more confusing from here as Chinese "sources" use reputable US mainstream media sources to not only convey what is going on but to allow themselves (and their conflicts of interest) an exit mechanism. After all, it's not as if anyone will prosecute them for insider trading. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 09:13.....»»