McCarthy Throws Fit, Accuses GOP Hardliners Of Wanting To "Burn The Whole Place Down" As Shutdown Looms House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has sent the House home for the week without a resolution on the looming government shutdown, after members of the Freedom Caucus refused to play ball, scuttling plans to pass a Continuing Resolution (a 30-day band-aid to avoid government shutdown), and putting 11 appropriations bills in jeopardy which McCarthy is hoping to pass in the next nine days. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) McCarthy on Thursday accused the (actual) conservatives of wanting to "burn the whole place down." “This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down.” — After House Republicans once again failed to pass a basic procedural rule to fund the Pentagon, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hits some members of his own conference pic.twitter.com/Qt4AR71jP3 — The Recount (@therecount) September 21, 2023  But wait, there's more! Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), meanwhile, has a bill lined up that could form the framework for the Continuing Resolution designed to keep the government operating beyond Sept. 30, according to Punchbowl News. While House Republicans are pointlessly grinding through their version of FY2024 spending bills next week, Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will likely send the House a bipartisan CR. And yes, it’ll probably include billions of dollars in Ukraine aid as well as disaster relief funding and plenty of provisions that conservatives abhor. At that point, McCarthy will have a choice to make. Will he bring up the Senate-approved CR and pass it with a mix of Democratic and Republican votes? Will he try to amend it and see if the Senate will bite? (They probably won’t.) Or will he ignore it and shut the government down? This is a decision that could define McCarthy’s speakership. On Friday, the House Rules Committee is slated to mark up four spending bills, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, Defense and Agriculture, as part of the GOP leadership's plan to get the 11 appropriations bills through the chamber. The four amount to $1.52 trillion in total spending - tens of billions less than what the Senate will accept. After that, House members will return on Tuesday evening according to GOP leadership aides. Punchbowl suggests that a Senate-led CR may have always been in the cards - as any bill to fund the government must be bipartisan, and McCarthy has been unwilling to put a bipartisan solution on the floor out of fear of an open war with his hardline conservatives. When lawmakers return Tuesday, they'll have just five days left to avoid a shutdown. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 10:45.....»»

"That 70s Show" Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the actors playing the teenagers were not born in the late 70s and had never experienced life during that period. Many alive today cannot fathom a lifestyle devoid of the internet, cable television, mobile phones, and social media. Oh…the horrors. Yet, today, almost 50 years later, financial commentators, many of whom were not alive at the time, suggest that inflation and yields will repeat “That 70s Show.” Understandably, the increase in inflation and interest rates from their historic lows is cause for concern. As James Bullard noted, “Inflation is a pernicious problem,” which is why the Federal Reserve lept into action. “When the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to quash inflation last year, it did so with the goal of avoiding a painful repeat of the 1970s, when inflation spun out of control and economic malaise set in.” – CNN That concern of “spiraling inflation” remains the key concern of the Federal Reserve in its current monetary policy decisions. It has also pushed many economists to point back at history, using “That 70s Show” period as the yardstick for justifying their concerns about a resurgence of inflation. “The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Then, as the economy contracted, he changed course and started cutting rates. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. Volcker brought double-digit inflation to heel — but only by raising borrowing costs high enough to trigger back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s that at one point pushed unemployment above 10%. ‘If they don’t stop inflation now, the historical analogy [indicates] it’s not going to stop, and it’s going to get worse,’ said Richardson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine.” However, such may be an oversimplification to suggest Burns was wrong and Volker was right. The reason is the economy today is vastly different than during “That 70s Show.” Today Is Very Different Than The 1970s During the 70s, the Federal Reserve was entrenched in an inflation fight. The end of the Bretton Woods and the failure of wage/price controls combined with an oil embargo sent inflation surging. That surge sent markets crumbling under the weight of rising interest rates. Ongoing oil price shocks, spiking food costs, wages, and budgetary pressures led to stagflation through the end of that decade. What was most notable was the Fed’s inflation fight. Like today, the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflationary pressures from exogenous factors. In the late 70s, the oil crisis led to inflationary pressures as oil prices fed through a manufacturing-intensive economy. Today, inflation resulted from monetary interventions that created demand against a supply-constrained economy. Such is a critical point. During “That 70s Show,” the economy was primarily manufacturing-based, providing a high multiplier effect on economic growth. Today, the mix has reversed, with services making up the bulk of economic activity. While services are essential, they have a very low multiplier effect on economic activity. One of the primary reasons is that services require lower wage growth than manufacturing. While wages did rise sharply over the last couple of years, such was a function of the economic shutdown, which created a supply/demand gap in the employment matrix. As shown, full-time employment as a percentage of the population fell sharply during the pandemic lockdown. However, with full employment back to pre-pandemic levels, wage growth declines as employers regain control over the labor balance. Furthermore, the economic composite of wages, interest rates, and economic growth remain highly correlated between “That 70s Show” and today. Such suggests that while inflation rose with the supply/demand imbalance created by the shutdown, the return to normalcy will lower inflation as economic activity slows. With a correlation of 85%, the inflationary decline will be coincident with economic growth, interest rates, and wages. Unlike “That 70s Show,” where economic growth and wages were rising steadily, which allowed for higher levels of interest rates and inflation, There is a singular reason why a repeat of that period is quite impossible. The Debt Burden And Economic Weakness What is notable about “That 70s Show” is that it was the culmination of events following World War II. Following World War II, America became the “last man standing.” France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others were devastated, with little ability to produce for themselves. America found its most substantial economic growth as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding a war-ravaged globe. But that was just the start of it. In the late ’50s, America stepped into the abyss as humankind took its first steps into space. The space race, which lasted nearly two decades, led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America. These advances, combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, fostered high levels of economic growth, increased savings rates, and capital investment, which supported higher interest rates. Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while inflation increased and interest rates rose in tandem, the average household could sustain its living standard. The chart shows the difference between household debt versus incomes in the pre- and post-financialization eras. With the Government running a deep deficit with debt exceeding $32 trillion, consumer debt at record levels, and economic growth rates fragile, consumers’ ability to withstand higher inflation and interest rates is limited. As noted previously, the “gap” between income and savings to sustain the standard of living is at record levels. The chart shows the gap between the inflation-adjusted cost of living and the spread between incomes and savings. It currently requires more than $6500 of debt annually to fill the “gap.“ It Is Not The Same While the Fed is currently engaged “in the fight of its life,” trying to quell inflation, The economic differences are vastly different today. Due to the heavy debt burden, the economy requires lower interest rates to sustain even meager economic growth rates of 2%. Such levels were historically seen as “pre-recessionary,” but today, they are something economists hope to maintain. This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels. Such suggests we will witness an economy: Subject to more frequent recessionary spats, Lower equity market returns, and A stagflationary environment as wage growth remains suppressed while the cost of living rises. Changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems. While many want to suggest that the Federal Reserve is worried about “That 70s Show,” we would be lucky to have the economic strength to support such a concern. The Fed’s bigger worry should be when the impact of higher rates causes a financial break in a debt-dependent financial system. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 11:05.....»»

Russia Confirms Ukrainian Missile Strike On Black Sea Fleet HQ, Personnel Missing.....»»

Has The Fed F**ked Up? By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack Has the Federal Reserve fucked up? Markets were a bit unsure of what the decisions would be from the Federal Reserve. Looking at monetary policy history, they would have seemed wise to pause interest rates increases. Looking at the US bond market, with it deeply inverted, this has typically been seen as a sign of “over-tightening” by the Federal Reserve. The 2 year to 10 year spread is its most negative since the 1970s, and previous bouts of yield inversion have preceded financial problems. And if you look around, there are loads of indicators that show the economy is beginning to roll over. US quits rates is one, but you have a huge choice in indicators to choose from to be honest. And with lag in monetary policy effects, it is easy to understand why the Federal Reserve chose caution over action. The economics and the back testing all tell you, now is the time to buy long dated bonds. Many market commentators also recommend bonds. And the market has responded. Inflows into TLT have been huge, even as TLT itself has been poor. The problem with this analysis is not the economics, but the politics. If you think the US government is fully ok with rising unemployment, and/or constrained by fiscal deficits, and will act to reduce these deficit, then buying bonds is completely rational. The problem is that you know that the next Presidential election will be contested between Trump and Biden. Both are proven spenders. There is no more austerity in US politics because Trump proved it’s a losing electoral strategy, just as Reagan and Thatcher proved austerity in the 1980s could be an election winning strategy. In a new pro-labor world, central banks have to act as a restraint, and when they don’t the bond market rebels. You can see despite the pause, the 30 year US treasury yield hit new highs. This is of course a problem, as the US housing market feeds directly off the yield on the 30 year Treasury. The Fed “pause” actually will do nothing much for the economy. I am fairly convinced we have moved back to a big-government, pro labor world, which puts the long end of the yield curve in a bear market. Buying at 4.5% makes very little sense to me. In reality, long dated Treasuries are a structural short, and I read steep inversion as a sign that it is a good time to short! An inverted yield cure, means you can sell a 30 year Treasury, put the proceeds in cash, and make a positive spread! When I think about interest rate policy, the pressure not to increase rates must be intense. The amount of wealth that has been built on transforming credit to equity is vast, and where there is money, there is political power. But the votes are no longer with the wealthy, they are with the poor, so policy is pro-labor for as far out as I can see. My preferred trade of long GLD/Short TLT also took out new highs on the Fed pause. One other trade I recommended for a new pro-labour world was Japanese banks. They continue to steam ahead. Historically speaking they have tended to act as deflationary canaries in the mine. Japanese banks are not point to an imminent slowdown requiring interest rate cuts! In the new political environment, central banks need to be aggressive to keep inflation under control. The pause is already been seen as a mistake by bond markets. I expect the Fed to resume raising rates shortly. I ultimately suspect treasury yields get back to double digits. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 11:45.....»»

Texas Declares "Invasion" As 10s Of 1000s Illegally Cross Southern Border.....»»

Watch: Rand Paul Blasts "Corrupt" Zelensky "Begging For More Money".....»»

Government Shutdown Could Push Unemployment To 4%, Triggering Recession Start Signal According to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, online betting markets see a 69% chance of a federal government shutdown starting Oct. 1, when appropriations will lapse if lawmakers can’t agree on a funding bill (in reality, the odds of a shutdown are just about 100%, although after a few weeks all should go back to normal as it always does after people get bored with the theatrics). What happens then? According to Goldman, a government-wide shutdown would reduce quarterly annualized growth by around 0.2% for each week it lasted after accounting for modest private sector effects. Goldman's baseline is that a shutdown could last for 2-3 weeks (the Trump government shutdown, the longest in history, lasted 35 days, from Dec 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 2019). Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics estimates a month-long government shutdown could temporarily push up the unemployment rate in October, triggering a popular rule for identifying the start of a recession. And while the hit to unemployment and GDP growth will reverse once the funding impasse is resolved, Bloomberg's baseline is for the shutdown to have a mild negative impact overall due to forgone economic activity and uncertainty. Bloomberg also speculates that in an extreme tail event, the maximum hit to 4Q GDP would be a drag of 2.8% if the shutdown lasts for the entire quarter. Considering that the current Bloomberg survey median sees just 0.4% GDP growth for 4Q, a shutdown that lasts all quarter would push 4Q growth deep into negative territory, something we first said on Tuesday. However, as noted above, past shutdowns have, on average, been much shorter. The eight government shutdowns since 1982 have lasted an average of two weeks. The longest one — in 2018 — lasted five weeks. Assuming a two-week duration, the shutdown will knock 0.5% off annualized quarterly GDP growth while it’s ongoing, and raise the unemployment rate by 0.1% in October. The effects will mostly reverse within 4Q once the funding stalemate is resolved, but forgone economic activity and the uncertainty from the shock could produce a net drag of 0.1% on 4Q GDP. In the scenario of a month-long shutdown — and assuming the unemployment rate remains at 3.8% in September — October’s unemployment rate could increase to 4.0%. That would meet the Sahm Rule threshold for identifying a recession. At the same time, a shutdown also would affect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ ability to collect real-time unemployment statistics — potentially affecting the accuracy of those data when they’re ultimately released with a delay (not like that matters since most BLS data is already highly manipulated and "goalseeked"), to wit: A shutdown beginning Oct. 1 and lasting two weeks — well within the normal range based on government shutdowns over the past 30 years — would likely delay the October jobs report, due Nov. 3. That might tip the scales toward an extended hold for a data-dependent Fed that won’t have all the data in hand. Bloomberg's bottom line: In the event of a protracted government shutdown, the FOMC will face a uniquely uncertain economic environment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting — and that may convince officials to hold rates steady again rather than hike. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 12:45.....»»

Diamond Prices Are Crashing, Forcing Russian Mining Giant To Halt Sales A surge in lab-grown diamonds flooding the market, coupled with a decline in luxury spending, has forced Russian mining giant Alrosa PJSC to temporarily suspend rough diamond sales to prevent prices from crashing further.  Bloomberg obtained a memo from Alrosa addressed to its customers, explaining rough diamond sales for September and October have been suspended as the company "strives to reverse the existing trend of diminishing demand."  Diamonds, watches, and other jewelry soared during the pandemic and peaked in the first half of 2022. We have covered the Rolex boom and bust extensively and have turned our attention to crashing diamond prices in 2023: Did Europe's Luxury Bubble Just Burst?  World's Top Polishing Diamond Hub Warns "Difficult Year" Ahead On Weak US, China Demand Another Middle-Class Spending Barometer Flashes Red: Rolex Prices Near Two-Year Low Luxury Recession: Diamond Prices Crash, Rolex Downturn Persists Luxury Turmoil: Diamond Prices Crash To Pre-COVID Levels; Used Rolex Prices Hit New Six-Month Low Besides the luxury spending slowdown due to tapped-out consumers, man-made diamonds have been all the rage because these gems are only a fraction of the cost. The big fear of the natural diamond industry is starting to be realized as consumers accept lab-grown diamonds in rings.  Edahn Golan, an independent diamond industry analyst, told CNN Business consumers are flocking to man-made diamonds because the most popular one-carat round man-made diamond for an engagement ring in March was $2,318. He said that's 73% cheaper than a natural diamond of the same size, cut, and clarity.  The latest data from the Diamond Index via the International Diamond Exchange shows prices have crashed well below pre-Covid levels.  Alrosa competes with De Beers, the biggest producer of diamonds, both of which have been rocked by a rough diamond sales slowdown this year after a massive boom during the pandemic.  Last week, Reuters reported the Group of Seven (G7) nations might be preparing to reshape the global diamond supply chain by placing restrictions on Alrosa.              Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 05:45.....»»

The Hard-Asset Inflation / Paper-Asset Deflation Theory Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time, All fiat currencies are no more than floating abstractions of value. Society has put its faith in fiat currency issued by governments. These government-issued currencies are not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the promises from the government that issued it. A difficult question investors today face is determining which assets will appreciate most thus rising in value and which form to hold their wealth. The value of fiat money is derived from supply and demand and the stability of the government that issues it. Over the years many promises have been made that simply cannot or will not be honored. History and many real-life examples exist that indicate that promises are easier to make than keep. It is very possible in the near future we may see a strong bifurcation of the financial system. The Hard Asset Inflation / Paper Asset Deflation Theory laid out below is based on the idea that as wealthy individuals begin to realize the fragility of the current financial system they will shift their investment preferences to items of substance.  This repositioning of wealth in assets could occur rather rapidly during a period of inflation. If such a revamping of how the wealthy invest takes place it could drastically add to any inflationary trends. In short, some investments would fall like a stone while others soar. Imagine real estate doubling in value while pensions are cut and stocks falter. This dovetails with my theory the Fed should be ecstatic so many people have been willing to invest in intangible assets because it has helped to minimize inflation. Paid For Hard Assets In Your Possession Are Best While real estate is normally valued by the amount of income it can generate, this could change. Other factors exist such as replacement cost. The way things are taxed also plays a big part in this game. Another problem  with many hard assets is they often require constant protection from the threat of theft. Regardless, the biggest factor we face is that it can be difficult to get out of the paper promise arena and into real assets. Reality places at risk all those pensions, stock holdings, and dollar signs held in banks and stored on computer files in some cloud. This issue of perceived value is put under a microscope and comes front and center with the realization many of the promises that have been made cannot be fulfilled. This all flows into what we buy and where we buy it matters. For years much of the wealth people earn has been flowing into paper assets and promises. There is a strong possibility this is not only about to stop but reverse as people realize the fragility of our current system. When it comes to inflation, it appears the lag effect has begun to catch up to the figures we see. The easy inflation comparisons due to the base effect are coming to an end, now begins the battle of forces that determine the "price of everything."  This is best seen in the service sector which is beginning to impact the Producer Price Index (PPI). This index is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level. It measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output.  One of the best indicators of where inflation is going is the cost of gasoline and energy in general. The chart below indicates we are likely to see inflation kick back up over the next few months. This Chart Indicates A Kick-up In Inflation Or Drop In Gas Prices Many trends tend to go on for years. Still, nothing goes on forever, the overriding issue is what happens when and if there is a "tipping point." Central banks have been able to set interest rates for a long time but logic dictates they are not in a position of ultimate power. The markets have the potential to take the power of setting interest rates away from the Fed and central banks, this would change everything. The central banks are powerful but the markets hold the ultimate power of what happens. It is important to consider the duration of a recession can be more important than its depth. How the Fed fights a recession also matters. We can expect the government to go into a super spend cycle but how the Fed accommodates this is also a factor in how things play out. It could be argued that consumers are choking on durable goods after the last wave of spending.  Considering the Fed is in a full-court press to halt inflation many people will miss the validity of this theory. It is important to remember inflation is uneven and supply and demand matter. Many people are praying and hoping for a return to ZERP and easy money. This is what they expect when they talk about Powell being forced to pivot. Some of us more focused on the long-term investment environment believe higher interest rates and inflation are here to stay even if prices occasionally drop before popping higher.  The MMT, Modern Monetary Theory or, More Money Today has already brought a lot of pent-up demand forward. It has also created a great deal of debt. Our tendency to view things as continuing as they have creates a recency bias that can blind us to future changes. It is normally infinite supply assets and those tied to scarce assets like energy that stay with the real rate or outpace true inflation. This means that while any country printing its own money may not default on its bonds in technical terms it can nominally through currency devaluation. This a real wealth killer.   Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 06:30.....»»

Broadcom Shares Slide On Report Google Plans To Abandon Chip Supplier  Broadcom Inc. shares fell in premarket trading in New York following a report from The Information that detailed Alphabet-owned Google has "extensively discussed dropping Broadcom as a supplier of artificial intelligence chips as early as 2027." According to a person with direct knowledge of the discussions, Google execs plan to develop in-house AI chips, known as tensor processing units, that could save the tech giant billions of dollars annually as it invests heavily in AI data centers. "Google executives set a goal earlier this year to ditch Broadcom following a monthslong standoff between the companies over the price Broadcom was charging for the TPU [Tensor Processing Unit] chips," the person said.  Breaking free from Broadcom will allow Google to profit handsomely off these chips and, most importantly, directly control its AI costs. The Information noted Broadcom generates a 70% profit margin on TPU and network chips.  In July, Google CFO Ruth Porat told analysts on an earnings call the company spent $13.2 billion on capital expenditures, including data centers, in the first half of 2023. She expects AI investments in data centers to continue surging through 2024 while the company continues to develop AI products, such as its Bard chatbot and AI services for Google Cloud customers.  The Information explained Google's AI investment spending spree has made Broadcom billions and transformed it into one of the world's largest AI chip sellers after Nvidia by revenue over the last year.  In May, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur projected that Google would spend $3 billion on TPUs from Broadcom this year, citing "recent order acceleration." SemiAnalysis forecasts that this amount is expected to climb to $7 billion next year and even higher in the years after, driven by AI demand.  Broadcom shares slid as much as 6% in premarket trading.  Google's move to explore in-house AI chips echoes Amazon and Microsoft's strategy of creating specialized in-house chips for AI.  The only question is if all this investment is worth it, as JPMorgan's top tech trader Ron Adler made a striking admission last week, detailing how the AI bubble just popped (full note available to pro subs).  Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 06:55.....»»

This Is The Worst Global Food Crisis In Modern History, And It Is About To Go To An Entirely New Level Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Hundreds of millions of people are desperately hungry all over the world, and by the time you are done reading this article more children will starve to death.  Earlier this year, CNN actually admitted that we are in the midst of “the worst food crisis in modern history”, but because the mainstream media rarely features images of the tremendous suffering on the other side of the globe most Americans don’t even know that it is happening.  Here in the western world, the primary way that the global food crisis is manifesting is through significantly higher prices at the grocery store.  Those higher prices are certainly painful, but we can deal with that.  But when you don’t have enough food to feed your family on a consistent basis, that really is a nightmare scenario.  According to the official UN website, 735 million people were in a “state of chronic hunger” last year… By 2022, approximately 735 million people – or 9.2% of the world’s population – found themselves in a state of chronic hunger – a staggering rise compared to 2019. This data underscores the severity of the situation, revealing a growing crisis. In addition, an estimated 2.4 billion people faced moderate to severe food insecurity in 2022. This classification signifies their lack of access to sufficient nourishment. This number escalated by an alarming 391 million people compared to 2019. The persistent surge in hunger and food insecurity, fueled by a complex interplay of factors, demands immediate attention and coordinated global efforts to alleviate this critical humanitarian challenge. We have never seen numbers like this before. And the final numbers for 2023 will inevitably be even higher, because crops are failing all over the planet. For example, this has been a catastrophic year for rice crops in India… Satish Kumar sits in front of his submerged rice paddy in India’s Haryana state, looking despairingly at his ruined crops. “I’ve suffered a tremendous loss,” said the third generation farmer, who relies solely on growing the grain to feed his young family. “I will not be able to grow anything until November.” The newly planted saplings have been underwater since July after torrential rain battered northern India, with landslides and flash floods sweeping through the region. The government of India responded to this crisis by banning the export of non-basmati white rice, but this has created a massive problem for the dozens of countries that rely on rice exports from India… Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice. The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban. More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports. Please read that last sentence again. Without rice exports from India, the number of people that starve in poor countries in Africa and the Middle East will soar. Some impoverished nations are literally begging India to start exporting non-basmati white rice again, but so far the government of India is not budging. So the price of rice has been surging all over the world, and supplies are getting tighter and tighter. Let me ask you a question. What would you do if your child was wasting away from malnutrition right in front of your eyes? In Somalia, that is actually happening to half of all children under the age of five… In Somalia, families are currently facing a catastrophic food crisis. This is the result of a severe and prolonged drought and decades of conflict that have destroyed crop production and made it almost impossible for herders to find food for their animals. Unfortunately, the most vulnerable are children, with 50% of children under five in the country experiencing acute malnutrition. Here in the western world, our children are not starving. So we should be thankful for that. But the lines at our food banks are getting longer.  Here is an example from the state of Ohio… Kam McKenzie, SNAP outreach manager for the food bank, said the Liberty Street pantry is seeing 940 more families per month since the end of February, when COVID-era SNAP benefits were halted. “So now we’re averaging maybe a little over 300 families a day coming into our Liberty Street pantry to shop for groceries,” said McKenzie. Based on the amount of food given out by Freestore, she estimated the demand on the pantry is up 27% compared to June of 2022. And we are experiencing problems with our crops too. In the middle of the country, seemingly endless drought conditions have greatly affected corn crops this year… Lack of rain has hit crops hard: In Missouri, for example, 40% of the state’s corn crop was classified as poor or very poor, according to the drought monitor. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is in the midst of its worst drought in a decade with about 80% of the state in some measure of drought. Prolonged drought has even reached the banks of Lake Superior: Parts of Wisconsin have the most severe drought designation for the first time since the 1999 inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub. “It’s the severity of the drought and the length of the drought that are causing some confounding issues right now,” he said. Unfortunately, we are still only in the very early stages of this new global food crisis. Multiple long-term trends will combine to make it impossible for us to feed everyone on the planet in the years ahead. Our politicians know this, but they are being very quiet about our rapidly growing food crisis because they don’t want to alarm the general population. But there will be no escape.  Hundreds of millions will not have enough food to eat tonight, and it won’t be too long before the number of people that are facing chronic hunger exceeds a billion. Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 07:20.....»»

BOE Surprises Markets By Keeping Rates Unchanged For The First Time In Two Years.....»»

Hollywood Writers Strike Could Be Over As Soon As Today Hollywood writers and producers are close to an agreement to end the Writers Guild of America strike following face-to-face meetings on Wednesday, CNBC reports, citing people close to the negotiations. If discussions hold together, the two sides hope to finalize a deal Thursday. That said, if the tentative deal unravels, the strike could last through the end of the year - keeping more than 11,000 film and TV writers in limbo. The writers and producers have argued that t hey aren't being paid enough relative to the income generated during the streaming era. In a Wednesday night joint statement, the WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers released a joint statement to announce that the two groups had met at the bargaining table, and would meet again on Thursday. After face to face meeting today, writers and producers near agreement to end WGA strike. Met today and hope to finalize deal tomorrow, according to people close to the negotiations, who, while optimistic, warn that without deal tomorrow strike likely continues through year end. — David Faber (@davidfaber) September 21, 2023 The writers strike has been in effect for more than 100 days, with actors joining in July, causing Hollywood production to grind to a halt. Several high profile shows such as Netflix's "Stranger Things," as well as various Marvel/Disney productions (and of course, Dune: Part Two featuring Christopher Walken) are among the high-profile projects to hit the pause button. Earlier in the week, the writers’ union said it would resume negotiations with the studios. This appears to be the closest the two sides have come to a resolution since the more than 11,000 film and TV writers went on strike beginning May 2. They have argued their compensation doesn’t match the revenue that’s been generated during the streaming era. -CNBC Beyond higher pay, the WGA has been pushing for new rules which would require studios to guarantee employment for specific lengths of time. The writers are also seeking to be compensated throughout the creative process (preproduction, production and postproduction). Currently writers are often required to provide revisions or new material without pay. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 07:45.....»»

There's a new type of bot that scrapes AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4 to extract intelligence. Vercel's CEO Guillermo Rauch tells Insider how this is happening and why it's such a big problem. Vercel CEO Guillermo RauchVivan Cromwell/ZeitVercel CEO Guillermo Rauch spotted a new breed of bot recently. These bots scrape information from AI models, including OpenAI's GPT-4.A developer recently fell victim to one of these bots, and got a surprise $35,000 bill from OpenAI.Powerful AI models, such as OpenAI's GPT-4, are being bombarded by digital bots that are "extracting intelligence" in new and nefarious ways.The phenomenon was spotted recently by Guillermo Rauch, CEO of Vercel, a startup that helps developers build websites that integrate with many of the biggest AI models. He discussed this new breed of bot on the No Priors podcast with venture capitalists Elad Gil and Sarah Guo. "It's almost like, extracting intelligence," Rauch said. "Let's call it web scraper 2.0. I run a bot that tries to get free GPT-4 basically." It's a huge problem, he added, so I called him up to delve deeper. 'Threat of model distillation'The generative AI boom has sparked unprecedented demand for quality data. AI models need this content for training. Without it, the technology just isn't as good. And there's not enough to go round. Rauch says this is one driver of these new bots. If you can cleverly scrape the outputs of GPT-4, Llama 2 and other powerful AI models, then you could use that as fresh training data for your own model, he explained. "There's a threat of model distillation," he said. "AI models can, in theory, share everything they know. It's plausible that you can train another model based on 100,000 high quality outputs from GPT-4, for example."Indeed, several of the top AI companies, including OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, ban the use of their outputs for training other models. A surprise $35,000 OpenAI billAnother reason: It's increasingly expensive to use the top-performing models. OpenAI and other tech companies have rate limits where even paying users can only ask a limited number of questions per minute or per day. Instead of abiding by these rules, bad actors are creating bots that bombard models with questions and leave someone else paying the bill for all the answers. This is often done by infiltrating applications that have official accounts and API connections with the largest and most powerful AI models, Rauch explained. "A lot of people are writing bots that try to go after web applications that rely on AI," he said. "These are essentially proxies to pull out this information, sometimes on behalf of users who are not paying to access the models."One developer Rauch knows was a victim of this type of attack. She has an application for data scientists that queries a major large language model. Bots attacked and essentially used her app as a proxy to access the AI model. "She ran up a $35,000 OpenAI bill in a very short time," Rauch said. "She spent months trying to explain that this wasn't her usage. Eventually OpenAI refunded her." OpenAI didn't respond to a request for comment. Evading China's AI model blockadeA third reason for this new phenomenon: China blocked access to ChatGPT, GPT-4 and many of the other top generative AI models. Creating a bot that secretly collects all the best outputs is one way to get around that country's censorship, Rauch explained. Hundreds of thousands of AI applications are being deployed on Vercel's platform each month right now. So there are a lot of targets for these new bots. Vercel offers technology to help developers protect against these attacks. SaaS businesses at riskRauch also sees SaaS businesses being challenged by this phenomenon. These types of companies often sell per-seat subscriptions that cost maybe $5 or $10 a month for unlimited use. New AI versions of SaaS services that query large AI models could be attacked by bots and end up paying for outputs that their real customers aren't getting, he explained. "Your SaaS business might find itself upside down and losing money," Rauch said. "So there will be more usage-based charging. A platform fee, a seat and a per-token charge or a per-query charge."Vercel already integrates rate limits for developers, he noted. So an an app could offer a seat where the user can only query AI models a certain number of times per day. "That stops attacks by outside bots that will do massive numbers of requests to steal intelligence," Rauch said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Destiny Pauls and Kellan Cousins live in an RV full time. They spent the winter working at a Washington ski lodge and the summer working at an Oregon winery. Destiny Pauls and Kellan Cousins in front of their RV.Courtesy of Destiny Pauls and Kellan CousinsDestiny Pauls and Kellan Cousins bought an RV in December and have been living in it full time.They spent the winter parked at a ski lodge and this summer parked at a winery in exchange for work.Their RV living costs are about $800 a month — hundreds less than the apartment they used to rent.In December, Destiny Pauls and Kellan Cousins took out a $48,000 loan on a 2003 Holiday Rambler motor home to live in with their dog.Before that, the couple had been renting an apartment in Corvallis, Oregon, where Pauls was finishing up her degree at Oregon State University — and where the average rent is nearly $1,800 per month for a one-bedroom, according to the rental site RentCafe. To have the flexibility for seasonal work, which sometimes becomes available at the last minute, the couple wanted to quit renting."Being on the go, we wanted to be a little more comfortable and take our home with us, rather than have to keep putting our stuff into storage and paying a lot for rent," Pauls told Insider.They spent the winter living in their RV at a ski lodge at Mount Baker, Washington, and stayed this summer at Tyee Wine Cellars, a 256-acre vineyard and orchard in Corvallis, Oregon. The couple plan to continue working seasonally at the two locations for the foreseeable future.The RV parked at the ski lodge.Courtesy of Destiny Pauls and Kellan CousinsCousins estimated they were saving $600 a month, compared with rent and utility costs, since they transitioned to RV living. They shared with Insider what costs were involved with RV life and how their lifestyle worked.Expense breakdownThey keep the RV parked and don't use gasoline — most of the time."We move it occasionally if we need to, but we don't actually move the RV itself too much unless we want to take it on a trip to go camping and have a nice vacation in our home," Cousins said.They spend about $800 monthly for the RV loan payment and full-coverage insurance. One major way they keep costs down is being off the grid as much as possible."We're not plugged into anything, we're not using any resources anywhere except what's on board here — and we've been doing that since December," Pauls said. "We've been using primarily propane and diesel."This summer, the couple had an agreement with the winery to work partially in exchange for parking and WiFi. The only other utility they pay for is their cellphone service.In winter, they paid $125 twice monthly to park their van at the lodge, but next winter, their lodging is set to be free with Cousins' promotion from working at the ski lift and in security to grooming the snowcats. His compensation includes water services such as laundry and lodge showers, as well as some food.The couple cook mostly in the RV, which has three propane burners, but sometimes treat themselves to takeout."For $0 commuting, we're living in some of the most beautiful places you can imagine," Pauls said. "I feel super fortunate to be able to have a mobile home. It's so cool to be able to park your home at your work, save money, and live super simply but be happy with that."Choosing the right RVThe inside of the RV.Courtesy of Destiny Pauls and Kellan CousinsWhen they set out to find an RV, they looked for one they could resell."It took a lot of noes to find one we were interested in," Cousins said. "We wanted to find something that had good value in the market."Cousins said their market research took into account their goal of owning property in a few years."If we're likely to sell this RV over the next three to five years and take probably less than a 5% loss, that's a really good equation for us to keep putting money into something," Cousins said. "We say we don't ever want to rent again."Pauls said they loved the RV they chose, which has a slide-out kitchen area that helps them maximize their interior space, as well as extra storage beneath the vehicle. It also features real tile and other upscale finishes. Recently, they upgraded the hardwood flooring.Cousins said the only downside to living in the RV was feeling cooped up at times, even though they could go a lot of places and spread their wings. Pauls said RV life was restrictive in terms of family visits — "but I guess the contrast is you're mobile, so maybe you can head their direction," she said.Sustainable living"There's a 100-gallon tank on board for diesel, and that typically lasts us about a month or so," Pauls said.Since the couple can use the employee showers at the ski lodge, they winterize the sink, shower, and toilet in the RV when they have bathroom access.Cousins said they're considering upgrading to a larger battery bank soon. The RV has just under 500 ampere-hours, and he'd like to triple or quadruple that."A larger battery bank would probably run in the neighborhood of $5,000 to 6,000, but we'll literally pay that over the course of the time we're off-grid in about 12 to probably 18 months, so it pays for itself pretty quickly," Cousins said.Their plansThe couple's dog perched under the RV.Courtesy of Destiny Pauls and Kellan CousinsIn the future, Pauls said they might be interested in buying an off-grid property to build and park on."We like being in the RV, but we also like the idea of an off-grid home somewhere that would work for a small family scenario — but also have an RV to go travel and still get out," Pauls said."These days, there's a lot of people building out vans, figuring out how to have a smaller footprint, getting rid of their leases, and making a move. It's interesting to see and be a part of that shift," Pauls said.She added: "A lot of homes are expensive, outrageous even, so this is a different way of doing it, and many people are finding a lot of satisfaction doing it."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

The "coffee-cup test," where job applicants get rejected if they don't pick up after themselves, hits on fears that tech like AI will make hiring more opaque. The "coffee-cup test" might play into some of our fears about a hiring process that's often not transparent. The rise of artificial intelligence can add to those concerns. vgajic/Getty ImagesThe "coffee-cup test" has resurfaced online as a symbol, for some, of opaqueness in hiring.The secret nature of the test can raise similar concerns to the use of AI in hiring.Both the coffee test and AI can make the process of getting a job feel arbitrary and nontransparent.Years ago, I heard a story about a recruiter who would hold up résumés to a light to see whether the watermark stamped onto the paper was facing the right direction.Some background: Résumés used to be printed on paper. Fancy résumé stock often carried a faint image known as a watermark that would speak to the paper's fine pedigree — or at least how much you'd paid for it.The legend went that even swanky paper wasn't enough for this loathsome recruiter. If the watermark was upside down or facing backward, it was an indicator of the candidate's slapdash approach to life. Into the trash it went.For another boss man, today's litmus test isn't paper but ceramic. The hiring manager shows those who show up for interviews where the kitchen is, offers them a coffee, and then rejects those who don't bus their dishes afterward.The coffee-cup test, like the watermark check before it, can feel like a trivial way to toss candidates who might otherwise be qualified. Little surprise, experts on interviewing often dismiss the gotcha approach.Yet one reason these stories keep resurfacing online, even years later, is because they speak to our fears that we're hurtling toward a hiring environment with more unfairness and even trickery — trappuccino, anyone? — thanks to technology.Today, the bogeyman is artificial intelligence. AI can seem just as arbitrary in its decision making as the coffee-cup test."One of the reasons people are nervous about AI is that the algorithms used are very blackbox," Josh Millet, an expert on hiring, told Insider. "The applicant has no idea how they're being evaluated."It's a similar feeling that some might get from the coffee-cup standard. "No one should have secret tests," he said.AI, of course, could make a hiring process that's still way too subjective that much less so. Yet some worry that ruthless bots will rely on mysterious algorithms to yank job candidates' from consideration because of invisible infractions or minor deficiencies.Millet, who's founder and CEO of Criteria, a Los Angeles company that works to help companies reduce bias and increase efficiency in hiring, said the promise of AI is to strip unfairness from the recruiting process and make it just about the data. Yet for that to happen, the data sets on which the AI is trained can't be biased. That's a big challenge."There's great promise, but there's also risk that it not be used ethically and responsibly," Millet said, referring to AI.When AI sits in on the interviewThere have been notable examples of AI fails when it comes to hiring. Perhaps one of the best known was a trial in which Amazon tested using AI in recruiting. But because the training was done using résumés largely from men, the AI discriminated against female candidates. The company shut down the project."There's been some really high-profile faceplants on AI," Millet said. It's little wonder, then, that job seekers would be concerned about the increase in digital gatekeepers. In a survey of some 1,200 employed US adults, about half said that AI tools used in recruiting are more biased than people. The online survey was conducted in June by the Harris Poll for the American Staffing Association.People are even more squeamish about the notion of our AI overlords getting to make a final call on whether a candidate gets hired. A Pew Research Center survey of 11,000 US adults in mid-December 2022 found that seven in 10 Americans are against letting AI make the ultimate hiring decision.Sandra Sucher, a professor of management practice at Harvard Business School, told Insider it's understandable why people would have concerns given the record of bias in AI."Those aren't imaginary concerns. Those are absolutely appropriate concerns," she said, adding that work remains to address those challenges."The promise of equitable hiring is there," Sucher said. "I genuinely would worry about perpetuation of bias depending on the age and the nature of the data set."Yet the misgivings by some workers and others don't seem to be keeping employers from bringing on AI to do more of the work of hiring. That includes interviewing — presumably without the java.In one survey of representatives from some US companies, 43% reported that their organizations are using or plan to use AI in the interview process by 2024. The online poll, conducted in June by Resume Builder, involved about 1,000 people who are part of the hiring process at their employers.Secret tests might not say much about a candidateThe coffee-cup test, then, can feel to critics like another way that people are being judged on things that don't pertain to their jobs. Of course, some have argued the test is a good measure of how considerate a candidate is in the workplace. One Reddit user wrote, "My guess is the people raging against it are the same ones that leave their dirty dishes for other people."Yet, Millet said, tests that are designed to be a "soul read" into what a person is really like, or how much integrity the candidate has, can often fall short. These measures, for one, don't take into account how nervous a candidate might be in the interview.Instead of relying on hidden metrics, Millet said those doing the hiring should use standardized questions across candidates and a rubric to score people's answers. For insights into people's character or,  preferably, their work ethic, Millet said it's best to use questions that pose scenarios and see how candidates respond. Essentially, anything interviewers do to assess character, personality, or ability should be structured and objective, he said.Millet said a good rule of thumb for hiring is that the selection criteria should be relatively transparent. "If I want to know something about you, I should ask you a question about it."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Beijing has put the squeeze on brokerages that use quantitative strategies to short sell the market, Reuters reported. China is cracking down on hedge funds that short sell its stocks, according to a Reuters report.REUTERS/China Daily China is scrutinizing hedge funds betting against its struggling economy, according to Reuters. Beijing has put the squeeze on brokerages that use quantitative strategies to short-sell the market, the outlet reported. The regulatory push comes with the flagship CSI 300 index down 5% this year. China is probing the activities of hedge funds that use quantitative trading strategies to bet against its struggling stock market, according to Reuters.The country's Securities Regulatory Commission has reached out to several major brokerages to ask about the trading strategies being deployed by some of their clients, the publication reported early Thursday, citing sources with direct knowledge of the investigation.Beijing's latest squeeze comes in the middle of a rough year for the world's second-largest economy, which is battling weaker-than-expected growth, deflation, and a property-market crisis.That's dragged down Chinese stocks this year, with the flagship CSI 300 index down 5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slumping 11% so far in 2023.Those dismal returns have sparked social-media outrage and led to top investors and retail traders alike questioning the strategies used by both quant funds and short sellers.As well as pushing back against these trading strategies, policymakers halved the stamp duty that investors are required to pay when trading stocks last month in a bid to revive China's stagnant markets.Beijing has also instructed top economists not to discuss issues like deflation, faltering growth, or slumping exports in a bid to prevent them from painting the country in a bad light, according to the Financial Times.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Apple has been trying to figure out a post-pandemic hybrid work balance for over two years and is no closer to an answer. Apple CEO Tim Cook with an Apple employee at company headquarters.Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesApple's hybrid work pilot program is still going two years after it was first proposed.It started after employees pushed back against a plan to bring them back to the office three days per week.Despite promises to adjust as needed, nothing seems to have changed and the program persists.Apple has been trying to figure out the proper post-pandemic, hybrid work balance for over two years, and it doesn't sound like they are any closer to an answer.During an interview this week with "CBS Sunday Morning," Apple CEO Tim Cook was asked about his stance on employees returning to the office. He didn't literally shrug his shoulders, but he sounded like it by noting that not much has changed in two years."What we did was we admitted we don't know what the best approach is," Cook told CBS. "So what we decided to do was run a pilot where people come into the office three days a week. We deal with user experience, and this requires collaboration. So we knew it had to have a fair amount of in-person work. And we're still in a pilot today."Apple first announced the pilot program Cook spoke of in June 2021 as pandemic restrictions wound down and people came out into the sun squinting their eyes. However, that plan was pushed back to 2022 due to more COVID-19 spikes.Apple's new $5 billion headquarters in Cupertino, California, was mostly empty for the first two years of the pandemic due to local government regulations. By mid-2021, the company was seemingly anxious to get people back into the office.An aerial view of Apple Park is seen in Cupertino, California, United States on October 28, 2021.Tayfun CoÅkun/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesAfter another attempt to launch the program in early 2022, Apple lost one of its leading artificial intelligence engineers because of the policy.Other employees also pushed back. Some wrote an anonymous letter to Apple's executives, accusing the pilot program of being driven by "fear of the future of work, fear of worker autonomy, fear of losing control." They later added: "Please get out of our way; there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Let us decide how we work best, and let us do the best work of our lives."One survey of Apple employees at the time, conducted by the anonymous social network Blind, found that 76% of respondents were "dissatisfied" with Apple's return-to-office policy and 56% said they would look for another job because of the policy.After more delays, the program finally launched in September 2022. The pilot required employees to return to the office three days per week — Tuesdays and Thursdays, with a third day determined by a team's manager — and increased the number of work-from-home weeks from two to four. Employees had been in the office two days a week before the pilot program.The company also made a similar plan for employees at their retail locations, with a "retail flex" program. In this case, when working from home, the staff would be assigned duties related to online sales, support, and customer service.An Apple store in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan province.Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesApple isn't the only company struggling with return-to-office questions. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently noted that he has always been a remote worker and doesn't work well in an office at the same time many of their employees are being required to return to the office. Meanwhile, more research is being produced on the subject and one found that fully remote workers are less productive.In mid-2022, Cook told employees that the pilot program wasn't set in stone and expected aspects to be adjusted. And while no timeframe was given, he suggested needed changes would come quickly."We are excited to move forward with the pilot and believe that this revised framework will enhance our ability to work flexibly, while preserving the in-person collaboration that is so essential to our culture," Cook wrote in an email to staff. "We also know that we still have a lot to learn. And we are committed to listening, adapting, and growing together in the weeks and months ahead."And yet here we are over a year later, and nothing has seemingly changed. It is starting to look more permanent and less pilot.Apple did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

While fitness trackers and step counters can help you be healthier, new studies show that they can also wind up hurting you. Fitness trackers have taken over. But is the deluge of fitness data making Americans healthier?Arantza Pena Popo/ InsiderOver the past seven or eight years, I've developed a habit. Whenever I have a brief moment of calm or boredom during my day, without really thinking about it, I'll pull up my smartphone's health-tracking app to check my step count. If it's late in the day and the number is low, I might decide to go out and walk a few blocks or take the long way home. If it's low at the end of a busy month, I might try to squeeze in a few extra long walks to pull up the average. And if it's low at the end of a busy year, I'll almost certainly fall into a spiral of self-recrimination: What was I doing with my time, exactly, that was more important than getting a bare minimum of daily steps? My step-counter guilt has been enabled by the growing ubiquity of health-tracking tech. Over the past decade, a dizzying array of smartwatches, activity-monitoring apps, and even high-tech activewear has flooded the marketplace, each promising to support their users' quests toward living their best and fittest lives. These tools count a person's heartbeat, hours of sleep, and even the length of your gait (and whether or not you should be worried about it). They are programmed into our phones, worn on our wrists, and even forced onto us by creepy employers. Entire fitness regimes replete with complex point systems and digital rewards are designed around the data they amass. What used to be just a helpful tool for health nuts has bloomed into a multibillion-dollar market. But is this deluge of data making Americans healthier? While some people are certainly motivated to move more because their phone or watch reminds them to, for others the proverbial carrot of self-optimization can become a source of dangerous preoccupation. Far from a silver-bullet solution to healthy living, these always-on tools and the culture of self-optimization they foster can stand in the way of our well-being. When numbers take overThe 10,000-step benchmark has generally been the baseline goal for smartphone apps and fitness trackers. Despite the cultural cache, the 10,000-step benchmark was not developed by scientists. Instead, it grew out of a marketing campaign by the Japanese company Yamasa to promote its new step-counting gadget during the 1964 Tokyo Olympics. Actual peer-reviewed studies have subsequently found that it takes far fewer steps a day to significantly lower the risk of mortality — and yet 10,000 steps remains the gold standard. The allure of 10,000 steps kind of makes sense: It's a nice, round number that's easy to remember, and in East Asia, it symbolizes the idea of plenty. Most critically, it provides a health target that's reassuringly direct — one easier to focus on than a messier holistic picture of well-being. Research suggests a number-crunching approach to well-being actively undermines the formation of sustainable, healthy habits.When the Fitbit tracker launched in 2009, 45 years after Yamasa's gadget cemented the 10,000-steps ideal in the public consciousness, it kick-started a boom in fitness wearables and spawned a frenzy for health data. Between 2010 and 2015, the company's sales grew from 58,000 to nearly 21.4 million devices each year. Much like the iPhone revolutionized the mobile-phone market, the Apple Watch's debut eight years ago cemented the fitness wearable as a desirable lifestyle product that could unlock a path to self-optimization. This flood of easily accessible health data has certainly had some positive effects. Numerous studies have shown that fitness trackers can provide users with a jolt of motivation to exercise — at least in the short term. Given that an overwhelming majority of Americans don't meet the US Department of Health and Human Services' recommended weekly exercise quotas, even a small boost in movement can have meaningfully positive health implications. Research indicates that for every 2,000 steps a person takes each day, their risk of premature death may fall by as much as 8% to 11%. Amanda Paluch, a physical activity epidemiologist and kinesiologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who studies the health benefits of fitness-tracking technology, said that for "moderately active" individuals like me, apps and wearables can be "a great tool." Quantifying our movement makes it easier to incrementally ramp up daily exercise incentives, which helps prevent injury and generally makes being more active more achievable. Many fitness-tracking products also incorporate social-sharing features, which can give us a better perspective on how our exercise habits stack up against our friends', providing a little healthy competition as motivation. While the guilt and anxiety I feel staring down the final hours of a 300-step workday aren't necessarily great, if that number prods me into racking up a couple thousand steps before the total resets at midnight — which it sometimes does — then the data is ultimately making me healthier. It's an intermittently effective Band-Aid for all the sitting that's baked into my daily life. But for all the upsides, that deluge of data can also spur unhealthy fixations and negative consequences down the road.There's no one-size-fits-all health metricDespite her pro-tracking position, Paluch concedes that there are downsides to living by the numbers on a scale or screen. "The thing with physical activity, or any type of health behavior, is that it's based on the individual," she told me. "How much activity you need in order to see various health benefits — like lowering your blood pressure or improving your mental health or lowering your risk of cardiovascular disease — is going to be different depending on the person." The optimal fitness regimen for a person depends on a wide variety of factors: their age, whether or not they have a chronic health condition, and even their genetic makeup. This inherent variability means that striving to outdo someone else's fitness metrics or meet the static targets laid out by an app can be a double-edged sword. Research suggests a number-crunching approach to well-being actively undermines the formation of sustainable, healthy habits. It gamifies fitness goals without factoring in the bigger picture of what a particular body might need on any given day and effectively reduces the care of our complex systems to arbitrary targets. This route can be handy for those of us who need to-do lists stacked with itemized tasks to get anything done, but it does little to support healthy choices beyond the limited scope of achieving select daily benchmarks. If I'm meeting my caloric requirements with a diet of pilsner and french fries, for instance, it doesn't really matter that I'm consuming as much energy as I can burn. When you are number-obsessed, it can really — pardon my French — fuck with your brain."If I see my physical activity solely as a numerical output, then I end up with little choice but to think of my body as a quantity of something," John Toner, a health sciences professor at University of Hull in the UK, cautioned in a 2018 paper published in the journal Performance Enhancement & Health. "Perhaps I am merely a quantity of fat or only capable of a certain quantity of power." Toner went on to explain that although measurement might spur a person to increase how much of an activity they do, it can also decrease their intrinsic motivation to do those activities in the long run. It may even make those activities less enjoyable, turning what should be recreation into yet another chore of productivity.Then there's the pinging and pestering. Many health- and fitness-tracking apps and wearables issue notifications throughout the day to urge their users toward their movement goals. While these little reminders can be helpful to some, they also play on users' insecurities about personal achievement and can cause people to fixate too much on the numbers. In some cases, users rearrange their entire lives in harmful ways to achieve their daily goals. Studies have found that exercise tracking can be linked to patterns of restrictive behavior in eating-disorder patients, and there's a growing body of research into whether the use of wearable fitness trackers contributes to the development of eating disorders.  "When you are number-obsessed, it can really — pardon my French — fuck with your brain," Cathleen Kronemer, a personal trainer based in St. Louis, told me. During her more than 30 years on the job, she's seen many clients fixate on calories, miles, steps, and pounds, beginning well before the advent of today's tech-enhanced trackers. But the rise in new gadgets has driven what Kronemer has called techorexia, a term for people who use of fitness wearables to fuel food restriction and overexercise. It was that same tendency, Kronemer said, that landed her in a residential treatment program in 2000 for anorexia, where she was fitted with a feeding tube. Today, Kronemer sees both sides of the fitness-tracking debate. Although these apps and wearables are not the source of eating disorders and overexercise, they pose a real risk to people who struggle to separate the pursuit of health from the rigid rules that fitness metrics may apply. At the same time, she recognizes that many people benefit from the extra push that numbers, goals, and a little competition can provide. Her own husband credits his Apple Watch with making him a better athlete. "In a perfect world, people would say, 'Let me use this data as a guide' as opposed to 'Let me believe in this like the Bible,'" Kronemer said. "People treat it like GPS. If it says, 'Go straight for three blocks and then turn right,' they think, 'I better not do anything but that. And if I did, I'm a failure.' I just think that there's got to be a happy medium, but Americans don't function on a happy medium."Endless optimizingWhile the allure of fitness-tracking apps has a lot to do with the psychological tricks they play on individual users, they also appeal to people because they fit so easily into our fast-paced lives. Overloaded work schedules, car-dependent commutes, and the nefarious convenience of food-delivery services make it harder than ever to take care of ourselves. A study by researchers at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis found that in 2016, the average American adult spent 6.5 hours a day sitting down — an entire hour longer than in 2007. Considering the ongoing rise of app-based conveniences, today's number may be even higher. These modern pressures — combined with an obsession with optimizing for efficiency — has caused Americans to squeeze healthy habits into the margins. And fitness tech is there to help make it easier for us to squash it all in. In fact, the original Japanese step counter is said to have been created after an exchange between Yamasa's founder and a doctor who suggested that the nation's newfound prosperity had given rise to new conveniences which, in turn, discouraged physical activity. The pursuit of fitness has become absorbed into the American (over)work ethic. Instead of valuing wellness as worthy of pursuing in its own right, fitness is pursued as a means to an end: People work out in order to be more focused and productive at work, or to be more confident in order to be a better worker, or to be more attractive in order to — you guessed it — succeed in their career. When the step counter on my health app reminds me how little I've moved my body, I feel like a failure. But in truth, those disappointing numbers usually mean I lived my days exactly as most Americans are taught to: by prioritizing the completion of more and more tasks, then doing whatever I can to decompress enough to repeat the whole process tomorrow. When my steps are low, it's because I'm dutifully working hard and putting my well-being last.Fitness tracking is no silver bullet, but it's not inherently antithetical to the cause. Despite my ambivalence, I suspect I will always turn to certain technological tools to keep me honest and active, hopefully for many years to come. For others, the tools may hurt more than they help. Everybody, and every body, is different.Kelli María Korducki is a journalist whose work focuses on work, tech, and culture. She's based in New York City.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

These are the best Apple Watch deals today, whether you want the newest Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 or bargains like the Apple Watch SE. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn moreApple; Alyssa Powell/InsiderFinding a good Apple Watch deal is like finding seeded grapes and watermelon in a grocery store. It's possible, but you might have to look around or wait it out (especially if you're looking for the Apple Watch Series 9 or Watch Ultra 2). We can't do much about the timing, but we can take care of the sleuthing for you as we're always on the look out for the best Apple Watch prices. Below, we've rounded up all the best Apple Watch deals we can find. The base Apple Watch, is often our top pick for best smartwatch overall thanks to its ease of use and robust health features. If you have the means and need for one, the Apple Watch Ultra models are a fun upgrade pick built for adventurous people. You can also save a lot by going for an Apple Watch SE, which lacks a couple of bells and whistles but otherwise delivers the essential Apple Watch experience.Need help deciding which one is right for you? Read our guide on the best Apple Watches to learn what sets each apart. If you end up buying one of the newer ones, consider using any savings you get to stylize it with one of our suggestions from the Best Apple Watch Series 9 bands and Apple Watch Ultra 2 bands.Best Apple Watch pricesThe base model is what most people are interested in, and you don't necessarily have to buy the latest. Check out these deals on all the Apple Watch models currently available.Apple Watch Series 9 dealsThe Apple Watch Series 9 is just arriving, and it'll be a while before we see any flat discounts, but you may be able to score a nice deal on Apple's newest smartwatch by adding a new line for a cellular version on carriers like AT&T and Verizon.For instance, Verizon offers up to $180 of trade-in credit (applied as monthly bill credits over 36 months) when trading in your old Apple Watch. You can trade in any Apple Watch, but the older it is, the less you'll get. Your monthly cost for an Apple Watch Series 9 is as low as $6 going this route.AT&T currently offers $300 off when buying any two Apple Watch models on an installment plan, applied as a monthly bill credit over 36 months. This deal requires adding at least one new line.Be sure to check the current retail prices below on GPS-only models if you'd rather buy the Apple Watch Series 9 outright with no carrier ties.Apple Watch Series 8 dealsThere aren't many Apple Watch Series 9 deals yet, but you can always go with older models to save money. The Apple Watch Series 8 is the previous generation flagship that comes loaded with all of Apple's most advanced health features, its latest processor, a brighter always-on display, and fast charging. Check out our Apple Watch Series 8 review if you want to know more about the smartwatch.Apple Watch Ultra dealsThe Apple Watch Ultra is an astronomical leapfrog over the base models' features and price. The Apple Watch Ultra starts at $799 and offers a bigger display, longer battery life, advanced GPS, and better durability. The deals on the original haven't been particularly bountiful even with the Apple Watch Ultra 2's arrival, but you may be able to save a few bucks on tax with some of these deals.Additionally, you can take advantage of the trade-in and financing offers mentioned above to make either of these smartwatches an easier buy at carriers like Verizon and AT&T. Otherwise, the retail prices below are the best we've found on both models.Apple Watch SE dealsIf price is your main concern, the SE is worth consideration. This is the cheapest Apple Watch that's still sold brand new by Apple. It offers the core Apple Watch experience at a much more accessible price, but lacks more advanced features like an always-on screen and ECG monitoring (there's a basic heart rate monitor and altimeter, but no other health features from the flagship Apple Watch models).If you don't need GPS features and just want something for simple app connectivity with your iPhone, Walmart has one of the best Apple Watch bargains available, as it's still selling brand-new Apple Watch SE (1st Gen) models for $130.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»