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The Disney Wish cruise ship is selling a $5,000 "Star Wars"-themed cocktail. Here"s what else is on the menu at the Hyperspace Lounge.

The Kaiburr Crystal is served from a droid-inspired case that's equipped with a smoke machine. Other drinks include Pickled Mynock and Breken's Flow. "Star Wars"-themed bar on the Disney Wish ship.Disney Disney is reportedly charging $5,000 for a "Star Wars"-themed cocktail on its new cruise ship. The drink is called Kaiburr Crystal and served with a smoke machine, according to guests. It's one of many themed drinks being served in the vessel's Hyperspace Bar. Disney's newest cruise ship, Disney Wish, is reportedly serving a $5,000 cocktail in its "Star Wars"-themed bar, the Hyperspace Lounge.The news was reported by multiple outlets after the drink was shown in video footage posted on social media.The drink is called Kaiburr Crystal and takes its name from the crystals that power lightsabers. It is listed as: "The galaxy's rarest and valuable cocktail," according to images shared online.The drink appears under the "hyperfuel" section of the menu and, unlike the rest of the drinks, no ingredients for the cocktail are included.The ingredients were not available at the time of publication but fans have been speculating online and on social media that the drink contains everything from Remy Martin Louis XIII cognac, which costs $4,000 per bottle, to "force powers." Disney did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment on the price of the cocktail.The drink is served from a droid-inspired case equipped with self-lowering doors and accompanied by a smoke machine, according to the video posted on social media.The Disney Wish website lists the bar as "offering interactive tasting experiences and signature beverages inspired by the hit films." The Hyperspace Lounge is a family experience during the day but turns adults-only at night.  Here's what else is on the cocktail menu, along with details of their origins, according to cruise guests and bloggers:Batuu – Spire Sunset: $15Grown on the sides of the planet's petrified spires. Saigon Bagur, Kamquat, lychee, coconut.Mustafar – Breken's Flow: $16From the largest lavafall of the galaxy. SelvaRay Coconut, Rumchata, Godivia Chocolate, coconut water.Coruscant – The Chancellor: $20Enjoyed by the senate elite members. Hennessy James, Calvados Menorval 1972.Tatooine – Freetown Reserve: $20Made of Bantha hides mashed with fermented grains. Woodford Reserve Double Oaked.Astroid Belt – Pickled Mynock: $16Consists of Codigo 1530 Artesenal Mezcal, Cointreau Blood Orange, Baileys Salted Caramel.Non-alcoholic drinks include Cloud City, which is made from oat milk, blue raspberry, and "galaxy" ice cream, and costs $7. A selection of wines and beers, including the Skywalker Pino Noir Rosé and Batuuan Harvest Brew, is also available.The Disney Wish is Disney Cruise's fifth and newest ship. Officially unveiled in May 2021, the ship arrived in Port Canaveral earlier this month. The ship has features including the Star Wars-themed bar, a Marvel restaurant, and a Frozen dining experience. The 1,119 feet long ship can accommodate 1,555 crew members and 4,000 guests. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider58 min. ago Related News

G-7 & The Desperation Stage Of Russian Sanctions

G-7 & The Desperation Stage Of Russian Sanctions Authored by Jack Rasmus via Counterpunch.org, Biden and the other G7 leaders are meeting in the Bavarian Alps this week. Apart from proclaiming they’ll never give up supporting Zelensky and Ukraine, G7 leaders announced they were planning two new sanctions on Russia. Like most of the previous six phases of sanctions the purpose of the latest is to deprive Russia of revenues from exports. So far sanctions haven’t been all that successful in that regard, at least in the shorter term. While the USA has banned Russian oil and gas imports to the USA, those amounts and their respective revenue impact on total Russian export revenue is insignificant. Moreover, the ban on Russian oil exports to Europe do not begin until December 2022, while there’s no ban on Russian natural gas imports whatsoever. So little net impact on Russian energy export revenues from Europe either. The sanctions on oil & gas Russian exports to Europe have been quite minimal to date. Meanwhile, Russia’s exports to China, India and rest of the world have been rising. As have global energy prices in general.  With accelerating global prices for oil and gas, and an increase in Russian energy exports to India, China and elsewhere, Russia’s revenues have been actually rising. This rising revenue despite sanctions has presented something of a conundrum for Biden and the G7. The whole idea of sanctions is to dramatically reduce Russian revenues, not simply volume of exports! Sanctions thus far have had the opposite effect of what was intended—Russian energy revenues have risen not fallen. So the G7 in Bavaria have come up with two more schemes to try to reduce Russian export revenues. But the thin mountain air must be affecting their thinking. The two new schemes are among the most desperate and economically absurd sanction ideas spawned thus far. 1. Ban Russian Gold Exports to Europe The first absurd proposal being bandied about in Bavaria is to get Europe to agree to ban Russian gold exports to Europe. The thinking is Russian revenues from gold constitute Russia’s second largest export revenue source, but at $20 billion a year gold sales revenue is still well below Russia’s oil export revenue of around $90 billion (before sanctions). Most of the Russian gold exports goes to the gold exchange in London where it’s ‘sold’ by Russia in exchange for other currencies. The G7 thinks denying Russia access to the London gold exchange will result in a big dent in its total export revenues and ability to obtain other currencies with which to purchase other needed imports for its economy. But there are problems with the G7’s proposed ban on Russia gold exports. First, Russia could just as well sell its gold elsewhere in the world. It doesn’t have to sell it to the Europeans at the London exchange. Other major global buyers of Russian gold are Turkey, Qatar, India and other middle eastern markets. Gold prices have been rising globally, as inflation has driven up oil, gas, and other industrial and agricultural commodities. Gold is an asset that tends to rise in price with rising general price levels, which are now accelerating worldwide. With inflation, other countries will more than gladly buy up the Europeans’ share of Russian gold. Some may even then sell the gold back to the Europeans—at a marked up higher price of course. The Demand for Russian gold will simply shift, from Europe to elsewhere. Russian gold export revenues will thus not fall on net; in fact, may possibly even rise as gold prices continue to rise with inflation–ironically in large part due to other sanctions in general. Second, gold is an asset that provides a hedge against inflation. It may be that Biden can get the G7 leaders and their governments (and central banks) to boycott buying Russian gold. But what’s to stop individual investors in Europe from buying Russian gold in offshore markets, when it’s presently such an attractive asset? Will Biden extend sanctions on all the individual Europeans who simply shift their purchases of Russian gold from the London Gold Exchange to the gold exchanges in Turkey, Qatar and elsewhere? 2. Price Cap Russian Oil Exports to Europe This is an even sillier proposal. Here’s the logic of how the price cap is supposed to work. Theoretically, Europe would all agree to buy Russian oil exports over the next six months but only at a deeply discounted price that all of Europe would agree on. In other words, set a ‘price cap’ at a level well below world market prices that are currently determined by supply in global oil spot markets. The lower price is supposed to cut Russian revenues from the oil exports to Europe—i.e. reduce revenues, the prime goal of all sanctions. The idea was first suggested by Janet Yellen, the US Secretary of the Treasury. That’s the Janet Yellen who told the world in February 2022 that inflation was temporary, remember! Getting all of the G7 to agree to a price cap still requires getting the rest of Europe as well as Japan, So. Korea and others to agree to that price capt as well.   But isn’t Europe supposed to stop buying all Russian oil imports by end of 2022 per previous sanctions they’ve agreed to? Who believes the Europeans can agree to a price cap on Russian oil and implement that cap in three months (July-September)–and then for just three months more (October-December)? Europe can’t do anything in three months, or even six. Maybe the US and EU aren’t all that confident they can implement a full ban on Russian oil exports by December? But even this isn’t the most absurd aspect of the ‘price cap’ proposal. Assuming Biden could get all the G7 to convince all of Europe’s 27 nations on a super discounted price, there’s still the ‘small problem’ of what Russia’s response might be to all that. The G7’s faulty logic is the deep discounted price Europe is only willing to pay for the oil would be at a price much lower than even the 30% discount that Russia is now selling oil to India, China and elsewhere. The G7 presumably would offer to buy Russian oil only at a 50% discount off current world prices maybe? That would put pressure, as the G7 argument goes, on Russian oil sales to India etc. The Indians would then demand Russia oil prices at the G7 lower 50% discount price. Russia would realize further reduced revenues from oil lower prices to India, China, the rest of the world as well as to G7 and Europe. This is a proposal so ridiculous it’s almost embarrassing. The problem with the G7 ‘price cap’ idea is there’s no reason why Russia would want to sell any oil whatsoever to Europe at the G7’s deeply discounted price cap level. First, why should it when Europe says it plans to phase out all Russian oil by December anyway? Second, Russia has shown it is not concerned with reducing natural gas export revenues to Europe. It’s already cut cubic gas exports to Europe by one-third as part of its own economic response to Europe’s agreement with US sanctions on Russia and it’s warned Europe of another third soon.  Economic warfare cuts both ways. So what’s to stop Russia from just cutting off all oil exports to Europe—and well before December? Third, Russia would have to be pretty dumb to agree to sell oil to Europe at the latter’s ‘price cap’ level which would be well below Russia’s already 30% discount oil price sales to India? It knows the likely knock on effect that would follow. India as a long term oil customer is far more important to Russia than Europe which says it’s ending as a customer in just six months.  Finally, Russia knows if it cuts off all oil exports to Europe, it would just change the market flow of global oil, not reduce it. Russia would sell more to other countries, which might then just re-export it back to Europe in turn. In short, the error with the G7 price cap idea is it assumes that buyers (Europe) can set the price for oil in what is a global sellers market! G7 may think they can stand market fundamentals on their head and make it work, but they are wrong.  No amount of G7 wishful thinking can make Demand determine Supply in today’s global energy markets, where broken and restructuring supply chains, sanctions, and war are the main determinants of price. Both the proposal to ban Russian gold exports to Europe and the proposal to manipulate oil demand to reduce its global market price—and thereby deprive Russia of revenues—are ideas that reflect more the desperation of the US and G7 to find some way to make sanctions on Russia work in the short run when thus far they aren’t working very well, if at all. The short run objective of sanctions–i.e. to reduce Russian export revenues–has not been working but the two latest desperate ideas won’t work any better. Historians will wonder years from now why the US and its most dependent allies in tow—the G7 countries—embarked upon a scope of sanctions on Russia so soon after Covid’s deep negative impacts on global supply chains and domestic product and labor markets. Global markets, trade and financial flows were seriously disrupted by the Covid experience of 2020-21. And they had not recovered by January 2022 when US sanctions on Russia were escalated. Before global supply chains could heal, the US and its G7 allies embarked on sanctions that further disrupted and restructured those same supply chains while simultaneously setting off chronic global inflation that ravaged their domestic economies as well. History will show, it was all not well thought out. Even less thought out, however, are the more recent G7 proposals to ban Russian gold and engineer a price cap on global oil—the latter in effect a fantasy that by somehow manipulating a region’s (Europe) oil Demand it could set global oil prices in general and thus over-ride Supply as the driver of oil price and revenues. It makes one wonder about the qualifications of the current generation of world leaders (led by Biden and the US) playing with the geopolitical world order. And wonder even more about their even less understanding of the consequences of their economic actions on the world economy. *  *  * Jack Rasmus is author of  ’The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump, Clarity Press, January 2020. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and hosts the weekly radio show, Alternative Visions on the Progressive Radio Network on Fridays at 2pm est. His twitter handle is @drjackrasmus. Tyler Durden Wed, 06/29/2022 - 21:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge10 hr. 30 min. ago Related News

The Best Marketing Strategies For eCommerce Businesses

Every day, new internet users buy products online. From America to Europe to Asia, eCommerce is here to stay. Therefore, it’s no surprise that global eCommerce sales are expected to hit $5.5 trillion in 2022, according to Statista. But while you have more potential customers, more competitors are also trying to take their share of […] Every day, new internet users buy products online. From America to Europe to Asia, eCommerce is here to stay. Therefore, it’s no surprise that global eCommerce sales are expected to hit $5.5 trillion in 2022, according to Statista. But while you have more potential customers, more competitors are also trying to take their share of the eCommerce pie. So, don’t expect internet users to land on your website and launch a buying spree without your effort. That’s why marketing is vital to any successful eCommerce business’s operations. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Now, there’s no single strategy that works for every eCommerce business. So how do you know the best for your business? This guide will show you the most effective marketing strategies and how to identify the best for your needs. How Do You Know What Strategy Is Best For Your eCommerce Business? As I mentioned earlier, every eCommerce business’s marketing strategy is unique according to various factors. Nevertheless, here are three critical considerations to help you discover the best marketing strategy for your eCommerce business. Your ideal buyer While billions of users are online, only a few profiles of people qualify as your ideal customer. Therefore, defining your ideal buyers will determine most of your marketing and even business decisions. You can define your ideal buyer by creating a buyer persona, which will include details such as: Name Gender Age Income Favorite marketing channels Location Pain points Ambitions Hobbies These pieces of information will determine elements of your marketing campaigns, such as marketing channels, brand voice, targeting criteria, and more. Here’s an eCommerce buyer persona example from Drip: Your marketing goals Although your overall goal is to acquire more customers and revenue, there are many stages of that journey. Your marketing campaigns at various buyer journey stages will have different goals. Common marketing goals for eCommerce businesses include: Brand awareness Lead acquisition Customer acquisition Customer retention Once you have a goal for your marketing campaign, it will inform your marketing messages, channels, and tasks. You must also define the metrics to measure your goal during the goal-setting process. Without setting a goal for your marketing campaigns, you can easily fall into a scattergun approach. As a result, there’ll be no way to measure the success or failure of your campaigns. Your marketing budget First, your overall budget will determine the channels you’ll focus on. With a big budget, you can have more space to experiment. However, a small budget will restrict you to only a tried-and-tested strategy. Whatever your budget, it’s vital to optimize it to obtain the best result possible. Considering these factors, you can create a unique eCommerce marketing strategy to meet your business needs. The Best eCommerce Marketing Strategies Below, we’ll consider six proven strategies to help you reach more customers. Of course, you can combine some of these strategies to achieve your marketing goals. Let’s go into the details. Ecommerce SEO Before a customer is ready to buy your product, they’ve done a lot of research. So to give your business the best chance of converting prospects, you must connect with them during the research stage. ECommerce SEO is the process of optimizing your web pages to rank high for essential business keywords. Here are tasks to execute to improve your eCommerce SEO: Content Marketing: no page can rank on search engines without some content on it. Hence, valuable content is one of the most vital criteria for ranking high for a keyword. Today, SEO has gone beyond just stuffing a page with keywords. Search engines consider search intent and ensure your content provides the information a searcher is looking for. Therefore, creating pieces of content that solve your visitors’ problems is vital. Technical SEO: includes tasks you execute in your website’s backend to ensure search engines can quickly discover your website. For example, you can submit your sitemap to index your pages and make them crawlable. Another aim of technical SEO is to improve the website experience for visitors. For instance, you can increase the speed of your website for a boost in rankings and usability. Another similar focus is making your website mobile-friendly to complement both of the points mentioned above. On-Page SEO: these are SEO tasks you do on your web page. They include tasks such as adding your target keyword to the page URL, title, subheadings, and other aspects of your page. Header tags are essential, they help break down content to help search engines better understand your content. Off-Page SEO: while you can improve SEO for your eCommerce website through many actions on your website, you can also take steps outside your website. One of the most prominent off-page SEO tactics is link building. When other websites relevant to your niche link to your page, they help build the authority of that page. Another critical factor is that the website linking to you already has a lot of high-quality backlinks to your pages will boost your chances of higher ranks. By engaging in eCommerce SEO campaigns, you can acquire more leads and customers through search engines. Pay Per Click Advertising Improving organic search and social media performance can take a lot of time that you don’t have. However, with pay-per-click (PPC) advertising, you can reach your audience now. For PPC advertising on Google, you must take the necessary steps to improve your chances of success. They include: Conduct keyword research: what keywords are your potential buyers putting in the search box? You can find the best keywords to reach your prospects through keyword research on Google Keyword planner and other research tools. Adjust bidding according to your goals: Are your ads showing up for your preferred keywords? Is the competition too high? Is a click worth much higher than you’re currently bidding? You can also achieve better success with your bidding if you increase your ad quality score through high-relevant ads and better click-through rates. Build relevant landing pages: your ad copy must align with your landing page copy to improve your chances of conversions. Some landing page builders allow you to take it further through dynamic text replacement. This will feature searchers’ keywords on your landing page. Use Google shopping ads: These ads are usually created for transactional keywords. These ads will display your products and their prices on the search results page. You can also add shipping information and ratings. Use retargeting ads: if someone has visited some pages on your website, you can send them ads related to those pages. For instance, you can target a shopper who has visited a product page with ads for that product. This will make them more receptive to your ads. After executing these tactics, you can improve performance through A/B testing. Frankly, there’s no single ad that works for every business. So, you have to test various ad campaign elements to improve performance. Email Marketing According to statistics from Litmus, email marketing can deliver an ROI of $45 for every dollar spent by eCommerce businesses. So, unsurprisingly, this is one of the best marketing channels to improve performance. That is because email marketing for eCommerce has many advantages compared to other marketing channels. First, your marketing messages will land in your subscribers’ inboxes. This is more exposure than other channels. Second, sending different messages according to the subscriber’s interests is easy. In other words, personalization can make a lot of difference in your marketing campaigns. Naturally, the best email marketing software you can use today will allow you to personalize your emails based on many criteria such as: Name Birthdays Gender Location Purchase history Emails opened Website pages visited As a result of sending relevant emails to subscribers, you’ll increase your open and click-through rates. And since you’re directing them to a relevant web page, there’s a higher chance of converting such visitors. Beyond personalization, email marketing automation is another effective strategy. Email marketing automation involves sending a series of messages to your subscribers based on a schedule or when some conditions are met. Some examples of automated email sequences are: Welcome emails Lead nurturing emails Promotional emails Abandoned cart emails Up-sell and cross-sell emails Onboarding emails Re-engagement emails To create these emails, you’ll find the necessary tools in your email marketing software. Better still, some software packages will provide automation templates you can use to create your campaigns. Here’s an example  of a sequence built with While creating your sequences, you can add triggers or conditions to add or remove subscribers from your email automation. For your eCommerce business, email marketing is a must rather than an afterthought. Social Media While social media is a platform to connect with friends, users also follow businesses and check out information and product offers. Here, eCommerce brands can provide value to their audience through content that can solve their problems. Of course, your business needs to focus on social media platforms where you can reach your ideal customers. Some ways eCommerce businesses can use social media include: Posting product tips Displaying product use cases Providing industry information Making product announcements Featuring user-generated content (UGC) Featuring influencer content Selling products Customer care In many industries, you’ll find experts and celebrities who have gained a big following due to years of excellent performance in their industries. As a result, these influencers have audiences who trust their product recommendations. Naturally, eCommerce businesses have taken advantage of this phenomenon to promote their products. However, while launching an influencer marketing campaign, you need to find the right influencers. The right social media management tool can help you find the right influencers. Then, it can help you track the effectiveness of your influencer campaigns. Fortunately, you’ll find many examples of brands using influencer marketing on Instagram. Over the years, social selling has become a popular strategy for eCommerce businesses. For instance, Statista found that about half of American social media users aged 14 to 34 made purchases through this channel in 2021. In fact, some social media platforms now allow you to sell your products on their platforms. For example, Instagram allows you to add shopping tags to products on your Instagram posts. A user can click on this tag to buy this product or shop more products without leaving the Instagram app. This allows you to eliminate the barrier of taking users out of Instagram. Pinterest also allows influencers and brands to create shoppable pins. This will let users shop products on Pinterest or click a link to visit the eCommerce website. On social media, there are many opportunities to promote and sell your products. Affiliate marketing Since you can’t reach all your prospects through your efforts alone, you can partner with publishers who will promote your products on blog posts, emails, social media, and videos. In return, publishers will take a share of the sales they refer. This will help you increase your reach faster. After all, according to Backlinko, “40% of U.S. merchants cited affiliate programs as their top customer acquisition channel”. First, you have to find a suitable affiliate marketing platform. This will help you organize details such as your affiliates, commissions, and other pieces of information. Moreover, your publishers can see the number of clicks, affiliates, paid affiliates, commissions, and more. Some affiliate marketing platforms such as PartnerStack, Everflow, and Impact.com provide tools to run your affiliate marketing campaigns. On the other hand, you can use affiliate marketplaces such as ShareASale and Commission Junction. Beyond this, you need to create an affiliate marketing page on your website. On this page, you’ll explain your affiliate terms to publishers. Publishers should also have a link to register. After a publisher has registered as an affiliate, you should send emails to them providing tips on how they can promote your products more effectively. Optimizing Website UI/UX Your website is the first impression a shopper will have about your business. If your website design is poor, shoppers will see your business as sloppy. And sloppy businesses don’t make great products, right? So, a shopper can leave before they get to see your wonderful products if your website UI/UX is poor. However, there are a few steps to ensure this never happens. First, you need a simple site structure. This means shoppers should be able to get to any page in no more than 4 clicks. More so, you can install a search bar to help visitors find products easily. You can also use a chatbot and live chat to answer any vital questions prospects may have during shopping. Another way to optimize your eCommerce website UI/UX is to make your website scannable and use obvious CTAs. Today, a large percentage of your buyers will be on mobile devices. Having a mobile responsive website ensures all the essential elements on your page will be visible to mobile users. Adding the geolocation feature helps provide shipping information and addresses of your nearest physical stores. Implementing these tactics will help provide a seamless experience to shoppers during the buyer’s journey. Conclusion As more people shop online, your eCommerce business should prepare for more challenging competition. Effective marketing is one of the best ways to give your business the right exposure. Even if you have an excellent product, nobody will buy it if they’ve never heard of it. But with the right marketing strategies, you’ll attract more shoppers to your online store and sell more products to them. Employ the strategies explained in this guide to boost your marketing results. Article by Diana Ford, Due About the Author Diana Ford utilizes over seven years of experience in marketing. She covers some industry-specific topics such as money management and business finance. Updated on Jun 29, 2022, 3:40 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk16 hr. 46 min. ago Related News

The 30 bestselling audiobooks on Audible in 2022, from celebrity memoirs to the most gripping thrillers

These are the most popular audiobooks on Audible that make for great road trip or beach day entertainment. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.These are the most popular audiobooks on Audible that make for great road trip or beach day entertainment.Crystal Cox/Insider Audible has thousands of books and podcasts. You can start a free 30-day Audible trial here. Below, we compiled its 30 bestselling audiobooks among Audible users right now. Books run the gamut from popular novels to self-help hits. If you're spending more time outside these days and have already cycled through your weekly podcasts, we'd recommend the slow burn of a great (and highly mobile) audiobook. If you're looking for a new title, we suggest starting with the books currently gaining buzz. Below are the top 30 bestselling audiobooks on Audible right now. The site has hundreds of thousands of titles to choose between, as well as a catalog of podcasts. If you're new to Audible or audiobook services in general, be sure to check out the FAQ section at the bottom of this article to get started. You can access Audible for free as part of a 30-day trial.The 30 bestselling audiobooks on Audible right now:Descriptions are provided by Amazon (lightly edited and condensed)."Where the Crawdads Sing" by Delia OwensAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $12.39For years, rumors of the "Marsh Girl" have haunted Barkley Cove, a quiet town on the North Carolina coast. So in late 1969, when handsome Chase Andrews is found dead, the locals immediately suspect Kya Clark, the so-called Marsh Girl. But Kya is not what they say.Sensitive and intelligent, she has survived for years alone in the marsh that she calls home, finding friends in the gulls and lessons in the sand. Then the time comes when she yearns to be touched and loved. When two young men from town become intrigued by her wild beauty, Kya opens herself to a new life — until the unthinkable happens."Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones" by James ClearAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $11.98No matter your goals, "Atomic Habits" offers a proven framework for improving every day. James Clear, one of the world's leading experts on habit formation, reveals practical strategies that will teach you exactly how to form good habits, break bad ones, and master the tiny behaviors that lead to remarkable results.“The Summer I Turned Pretty” by Jenny HanAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $9.25Some summers are just destined to be pretty.Belly measures her life in summers. Everything good, everything magical happens between June and August. Winters are simply a time to count the weeks until the following summer, a place away from the beach house, away from Susannah, and most importantly, away from Jeremiah and Conrad. They are the boys Belly has known since her very first summer — they have been her brother figures, her crushes, and everything in between. But one summer, one wonderful and terrible summer, the more everything changes, the more it all ends up just the way it should have been all along.“Dreadgod: Cradle, Book 11” by Will WightAmazonPre-order: Free with 30-day trialThe battle in the heavens has left a target on Lindon's back.His most reliable ally is gone, the Monarchs see him as a threat, and he has inherited one of the most valuable facilities in the world. At any moment, his enemies could band together to kill him.If it weren't for the Dreadgods. All four are empowered and unleashed, rampaging through Cradle, and grudges old and new must be set aside. The Monarchs need every capable fighter to help them defend their territory.And Lindon needs time. While he fights, he sends his friends off to train. They'll need to advance impossibly fast if they want to join him in battle against the kings and queens of Cradle. Together, they will need enough power to rival a Dreadgod.“Scars and Stripes: An Unapologetically American Story of Fighting the Taliban, UFC Warriors, and Myself” by Tim Kennedy, Nick PalmiscianoAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $18.37From decorated Green Beret sniper and UFC headliner Tim Kennedy comes a rollicking, inspirational memoir. It offers lessons on embracing failure and weathering storms — to unlock the strongest version of yourself.“It’s Not Summer Without You: Summer I Turned Pretty, Book 2” by Jenny HanAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $9.36It used to be that Belly counted the days until summer until she was back at Cousins Beach with Conrad and Jeremiah. But not this year. Not after Susannah got sick again, and Conrad stopped caring. Everything right and good has fallen apart, leaving Belly wishing summer would never come. But when Jeremiah calls, saying Conrad has disappeared, Belly knows what she must do to make things right again. And it can only happen back at the beach house, the three of them together, the way things used to be. If this summer really and truly is the last summer, it should end the way it started — at Cousins Beach.“The Hotel Nantucket” by Elin HilderbrandAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.99Fresh off a bad breakup with a longtime boyfriend, Nantucket sweetheart Lizbet Keaton is desperately seeking a second act. When she's named the new general manager of the Hotel Nantucket, a once Gilded Age gem turned abandoned eyesore, she hopes that her local expertise and charismatic staff can win the favor of their new London billionaire owner, Xavier Darling, as well as that of Shelly Carpenter, the wildly popular Instagram tastemaker who can help put them back on the map. And while the Hotel Nantucket appears to be a blissful paradise, complete with a celebrity chef-run restaurant and an idyllic wellness center, there's a lot of drama behind closed doors. The staff (and guests) have complicated pasts, and the hotel can't seem to overcome the bad reputation it earned in 1922 when a tragic fire killed 19-year-old chambermaid Grace Hadley. With Grace gleefully haunting the halls, a staff harboring all kinds of secrets, and Lizbet's romantic uncertainty, is the Hotel Nantucket destined for success or doom?“I'd Like to Play Alone, Please” by Tom SeguraAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $18.33From Tom Segura, the massively successful stand-up comedian and co-host of chart-topping podcasts "2 Bears 1 Cave" and "Your Mom's House," come hilarious real-life stories of parenting, celebrity encounters, youthful mistakes, misanthropy, and so much more.“Verity” by Colleen HooverAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $23.99Lowen Ashleigh is a struggling writer on the brink of financial ruin when she accepts the job offer of a lifetime. Jeremy Crawford, the husband of bestselling author Verity Crawford, has hired Lowen to complete the remaining books in a successful series his injured wife is unable to finish.Lowen arrives at the Crawford home, ready to sort through years of Verity's notes and outlines, hoping to find enough material to get her started. What Lowen doesn't expect to uncover in the chaotic office is an unfinished autobiography Verity never intended for anyone to read. Page after page of bone-chilling admissions, including Verity's recollection of the night her family was forever altered.Lowen decides to keep the manuscript hidden from Jeremy, knowing its contents could devastate the already grieving father. But as Lowen's feelings for Jeremy intensify, she recognizes all the ways she could benefit if he were to read his wife's words. After all, no matter how devoted Jeremy is to his injured wife, a truth this horrifying would make it impossible for him to continue loving her.You can find more of Colleen Hoover's best books here.“Sparring Partners” by John GrishamAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $27.90"Homecoming" takes us back to Ford County, the fictional setting of many of John Grisham's unforgettable stories. Jake Brigance is back, but he's not in the courtroom. He's called upon to help an old friend, Mack Stafford, a former lawyer in Clanton, who three years earlier became a local legend when he stole money from his clients, divorced his wife, filed for bankruptcy, and left his family in the middle of the night, never to be heard from again — until now. In "Strawberry Moon," we meet Cody Wallace, a young death row inmate only three hours away from execution. His lawyers can't save him, the courts slam the door, and the governor says no to a last-minute request for clemency. As the clock winds down, Cody has one final request. The "Sparring Partners" are the Malloy brothers, Kirk and Rusty, two successful young lawyers who inherited a once prosperous firm when its founder, their father, was sent to prison. As the firm disintegrates, the resulting fiasco falls into the lap of Diantha Bradshaw, the only person the partners trust. "Atlas of the Heart: Mapping Meaningful Connection and the Language of Human Experience" by Brené BrownAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $18.34In "Atlas of the Heart," Brown takes us on a journey through eighty-seven of the emotions and experiences that define what it means to be human. As she maps the necessary skills and an actionable framework for meaningful connection, she gives us the language and tools to access a universe of new choices and second chances — a universe where we can share and steward the stories of our bravest and most heartbreaking moments with one another in a way that builds connection.Over the past two decades, Brown's extensive research into the experiences that make us who we are has shaped the cultural conversation and helped define what it means to be courageous with our lives. Atlas of the Heart draws on this research, as well as on Brown's singular skills as a storyteller, to show us how accurately naming an experience doesn't give the experience more power — it gives us the power of understanding, meaning, and choice.“The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo” by Taylor Jenkins ReidAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $22.49Aging and reclusive Hollywood movie icon Evelyn Hugo is finally ready to tell the truth about her glamorous and scandalous life. But when she chooses unknown magazine reporter Monique Grant for the job, no one is more astounded than Monique herself. Why her? Why now?Monique is not exactly on top of the world. Her husband has left her, and her professional life is going nowhere. Regardless of why Evelyn has selected her to write her biography, Monique is determined to use this opportunity to jump-start her career.Summoned to Evelyn's luxurious apartment, Monique listens in fascination as the actress tells her story. From making her way to Los Angeles in the 1950s to her decision to leave show business in the '80s, and, of course, the seven husbands along the way, Evelyn unspools a tale of ruthless ambition, unexpected friendship, and a great forbidden love. Monique begins to feel a very real connection to the legendary star, but as Evelyn's story nears its conclusion, it becomes clear that her life intersects with Monique's own in tragic and irreversible ways.You can read a review of "The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo" here.“Greenlights” by Matthew McConaugheyAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $15.98From the Academy Award-winning actor, an unconventional memoir filled with raucous stories, outlaw wisdom, and lessons learned the hard way about living with greater satisfaction.“Finding Me: A Memoir” by Viola DavisAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $18.53In my book, you will meet a little girl named Viola who ran from her past until she made a life-changing decision to stop running forever.This is my story, from a crumbling apartment in Central Falls, Rhode Island, to the stage in New York City, and beyond. This is the path I took to finding my purpose, but also my voice in a world that didn't always see me.“The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization” by Peter ZeihanAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $31.50For generations, everything has been getting faster, better, and cheaper. Finally, we reached the point that almost anything you could ever want could be sent to your home within days — even hours — of when you decided you wanted it.America made that happen, but now America has lost interest in keeping it going.Globe-spanning supply chains are only possible with the protection of the U.S. Navy. The American dollar underpins internationalized energy and financial markets. Complex, innovative industries were created to satisfy American consumers. American security policy forced warring nations to lay down their arms. Billions of people have been fed and educated as the American-led trade system spread across the globe.All of this was artificial. All this was temporary. All this is ending.In "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning," author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan maps out the next world: a world where countries or regions will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging.The list of countries that make it all work is smaller than you think. This means everything about our interconnected world — from how we manufacture products, to how we grow food, to how we keep the lights on, to how we shuttle stuff about, to how we pay for it all — is about to change.“Finna: Book 1” by Nino CipriAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $14.99When an elderly customer at a Swedish big-box furniture store ― but not that one ― slips through a portal to another dimension, it's up to two minimum-wage employees to track her across the multiverse and protect their company's bottom line. Multi-dimensional swashbuckling would be hard enough, but those two unfortunate souls broke up a week ago.To find the missing granny, Ava and Jules will brave carnivorous furniture, swarms of identical furniture spokespeople, and the deep resentment simmering between them. Can friendship blossom from the ashes of their relationship? In infinite dimensions, all things are possible.“The Golden Couple” by Greer Hendricks, Sarah PekkanenAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.68Wealthy Washington suburbanites Marissa and Matthew Bishop seem to have it all ― until Marissa is unfaithful. Beneath their veneer of perfection is a relationship driven by work and a lack of intimacy. She wants to repair things for the sake of their eight-year-old son and because she loves her husband. Enter Avery Chambers.Avery is a therapist who lost her professional license. Still, it doesn't stop her from counseling those in crisis, though they must adhere to her unorthodox methods. And the Bishops are desperate.When they glide through Avery's door, and Marissa reveals her infidelity, all three are set on a collision course. Because the biggest secrets in the room are still hidden, and it's no longer simply a marriage that's in danger.“It Ends with Us” by Colleen HooverAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $10.26Lily hasn't always had it easy, but that's never stopped her from working hard for the life she wants. She's come a long way from the small town where she grew up — she graduated from college, moved to Boston, and started her own business. And when she feels a spark with a gorgeous neurosurgeon named Ryle Kincaid, everything in Lily's life seems too good to be true.Ryle is assertive, stubborn, and maybe even a little arrogant. He's also sensitive, brilliant, and has a soft spot for Lily. And the way he looks in scrubs certainly doesn't hurt. Lily can't get him out of her head. But Ryle's complete aversion to relationships is disturbing. Even as Lily finds herself becoming the exception to his "no dating" rule, she can't help but wonder what made him that way in the first place.As questions about her new relationship overwhelm her, so do thoughts of Atlas Corrigan — her first love and a link to the past she left behind. He was her kindred spirit, her protector. When Atlas suddenly reappears, everything Lily has built with Ryle is threatened.You can find more of Colleen Hoover's best books here."Can't Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds" by David GogginsAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $20.10For David Goggins, childhood was a nightmare — poverty, prejudice, and physical abuse colored his days and haunted his nights. The only man in history to complete elite training as a Navy SEAL, Army Ranger, and Air Force Tactical Air Controller, he went on to set records in numerous endurance events, inspiring Outside magazine to name him The Fittest (Real) Man in America.In "Can't Hurt Me," he shares his astonishing life story and reveals that most of us tap into only 40% of our capabilities. Goggins calls this The 40% Rule, and his story illuminates a path that anyone can follow to push past pain, demolish fear, and reach their full potential.“We’ll Always Have Summer: Summer I Turned Pretty, Book 3” by Jenny HanAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $9.31Belly has only ever been in love with two boys, both with the last name Fisher. And after being with Jeremiah for the previous two years, she's almost positive he is her soul mate. Almost. While Conrad has not gotten over the mistake of letting Belly go, Jeremiah has always known that Belly is the girl for him. So when Belly and Jeremiah decide to make things forever, Conrad realizes that it's now or never — tell Belly he loves her or loses her for good.Belly will have to confront her feelings for Jeremiah and Conrad and face the inevitable: She will have to break one of their hearts.“Happy-Go-Lucky” by David SedarisAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.79Back when restaurant menus were still printed on paper, and wearing a mask — or not — was a decision made mostly on Halloween, David Sedaris spent his time doing normal things. As "Happy-Go-Lucky" opens, he is learning to shoot guns with his sister, visiting muddy flea markets in Serbia, buying gummy worms to feed to ants, and telling his nonagenarian father wheelchair jokes.But then the pandemic hits, and like so many others, he's stuck in lockdown, unable to tour and read for audiences — the part of his work he loves most. To cope, he walks for miles through a nearly deserted city. He vacuums his apartment twice a day, fails to hoard anything, and contemplates how sex workers and acupuncturists might be getting by during quarantine.As the world gradually settles into a new reality, Sedaris too finds himself changed. His offer to fix a stranger's teeth rebuffed, he straightens his own, and ventures into the world with new confidence. Newly orphaned, he considers what it means, in his seventh decade, no longer to be someone's son. And back on the road, he discovers a battle-scarred America: people weary, storefronts empty or festooned with "Help Wanted" signs, walls painted with graffiti reflecting the contradictory messages of our time: Eat the Rich. Trump 2024. Black Lives Matter.“Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Book 1” by J.K. RowlingAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $6.98Harry Potter has never even heard of Hogwarts when the letters start dropping on the doormat at number four, Privet Drive. Addressed in green ink on yellowish parchment with a purple seal, they are swiftly confiscated by his grisly aunt and uncle. Then, on Harry's eleventh birthday, a great beetle-eyed giant of a man called Rubeus Hagrid bursts in with some astonishing news: Harry Potter is a wizard, and he has a place at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry.“Match Game: Expeditionary Force, Book 14” by Craig AlansonAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $14.44For years, the ancient alien AI known as Skippy (the Magnificent, don't forget that part) has been able to do one impossible thing after another. What is his secret? It's simple: 100 percent Grade-A Extreme Awesomeness. And also because he had never been faced with an opponent of equal power. Until now.This time, he might need a little help from a band of filthy monkeys.“The Terminal List” by Jack CarrAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $11.99On his last combat deployment, Lieutenant Commander James Reece's entire team was killed in a catastrophic ambush. But when those dearest to him are murdered on the day of his homecoming, Reece discovers that this was not an act of war by a foreign enemy but a conspiracy that runs to the highest levels of government.Now, with no family and free from the military's command structure, Reece applies the lessons that he's learned in over a decade of constant warfare toward avenging the deaths of his family and teammates. With breathless pacing and relentless suspense, Reece ruthlessly targets his enemies in the upper echelons of power without regard for the laws of combat or the rule of law."Project Hail Mary" by Andy WeirAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.32Ryland Grace is the sole survivor on a desperate, last-chance mission — and if he fails, humanity and the earth itself will perish.Except that right now, he doesn't know that. He can't even remember his own name, let alone the nature of his assignment or how to complete it.All he knows is that he's been asleep for a very, very long time. And he's just been awakened to find himself millions of miles from home, with nothing but two corpses for company.His crewmates dead, his memories fuzzily returning, Ryland realizes that an impossible task now confronts him. Hurtling through space on this tiny ship, it's up to him to puzzle out an impossible scientific mystery — and conquer an extinction-level threat to our species.And with the clock ticking down and the nearest human being light-years away, he's got to do it all alone. Or does he?You can read a review of "Project Hail Mary" here."12 Rules for Life" by Jordan B. PetersonAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $13.55What are the most valuable things that everyone should know?In this book, Jordan Peterson provides twelve profound and practical principles for how to live a meaningful life, from setting your house in order before criticizing others to comparing yourself to who you were yesterday, not someone else today. Happiness is a pointless goal, he shows us. Instead, we must search for meaning, not for its own sake, but as a defense against the suffering that is intrinsic to our existence.Drawing on vivid examples from the author's clinical practice and personal life, cutting-edge psychology and philosophy, and lessons from humanity's oldest myths and stories, "12 Rules for Life" offers a deeply rewarding antidote to the chaos in our lives: eternal truths applied to our modern problems.“Run, Rose, Run” by James Patterson, Dolly PartonAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.84From America's most beloved superstar and its greatest storyteller — a thriller about a young singer-songwriter on the rise and on the run, determined to do whatever it takes to survive.Nashville is where she's come to claim her destiny. It's also where the darkness she's fled might find her. And destroy her."The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck" by Mark MansonAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $12.99In this generation-defining self-help guide, a superstar blogger cuts through the crap to show us how to stop trying to be "positive" all the time so that we can truly become better, happier people.“The Paris Apartment” by Lucy FoleyAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $17.99Jess needs a fresh start. She's broke and alone, and she's just left her job under less than ideal circumstances. Her half-brother Ben didn't sound thrilled when she asked if she could crash with him for a bit, but he didn't say no, and surely everything will look better from Paris. Only when she shows up — to find a very nice apartment, could Ben really have afforded this? — he's not there.The longer Ben stays missing, the more Jess starts to dig into her brother's situation, and the more questions she has. Ben's neighbors are an eclectic bunch and not particularly friendly. Jess may have come to Paris to escape her past, but it's starting to look like it's Ben's future that's in question.The socialite — the nice guy — the alcoholic — the girl on the verge — the concierge.Everyone's a neighbor. Everyone's a suspect. And everyone knows something they're not telling.“Come with Me” by Ronald MalfiAmazonFree on Audible with 30-day trialAvailable on Amazon for $11.49Aaron Decker's life changes one December morning when his wife Allison is killed. Haunted by her absence — and her ghost — Aaron goes through her belongings, where he finds a receipt for a motel room in another part of the country. Piloted by grief and an increasing sense of curiosity, Aaron embarks on a journey to discover what Allison had been doing in the weeks prior to her death.Yet Aaron is unprepared to discover Allison's dark secrets, the death and horror that make up the tapestry of her hidden life. And with each dark secret revealed, Aaron becomes more and more consumed by his obsession to learn the terrifying truth about the woman who had been his wife, even if it puts his own life at risk.Audible FAQHow much is Audible?Audible Plus is $7.95/month and Audible Premium is $14.95 per month. You can compare the Audible plans here.Audible Plus and Audible Premium Plus have a 30-day free trial to most new members that come with one free credit to use on a title of your choice. And since Audible is an Amazon company, Prime members get two credits in their Audible trial as one of their perks.When your trial is over, you'll be automatically charged a monthly subscription fee. You can cancel anytime. What's the difference between Audible Plus and Audible Premium?Both memberships give you unlimited access to select audiobooks, Audible Originals, podcasts, and more.But, only Audible Premium gives you a credit that's good for one title of your choice in the premium selection every month and 30% off all additional premium titles, plus access to exclusive sales. You can toggle between some of the titles in the Premium selection and Plus selection here.Are there other good audiobook services out there?At Insider Reviews, we also like the service Scribd, which is $10/month for unlimited audiobooks and books. The company also has a joint NYT and Scribd membership for $12.99/month which can be a very good deal. You can start a free trial here, or find a full review of the service here. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider19 hr. 46 min. ago Related News

Personal finance links: moving the needle

Wednesdays are all about personal finance here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at some... HousingFirst-time home buyers are stuck between high prices and rising mortgage rates. (wsj.com)Real estate investing is active. Stock market investing need not be. (mrmoneymustache.com)Who really makes money on residential real estate? (humbledollar.com)InvestingHaving a long time horizon is a superpower. (humbledollar.com)People typically don't tell you about their investment losers. (whitecoatinvestor.com)How a bull market can distract you from your plans. (humbledollar.com)FamilyA case study of helping a parent, who isn't great with money, set up a retirement plan. (jlcollinsnh.com)Teenage jobs can teach any number of lessons. (humbledollar.com)Cellphone plan prices are on the rise. (wsj.com)PlanningWhen should you hire a financial advisor? (ofdollarsanddata.com)Automating as much of your financial life solves a lot of problems. (realsmartica.com)Tony Isola, "Financial plans are a form of creative destruction, serving as a compass, not a map. The changing nature of the planning process creates an ideal location to seek refuge." (tonyisola.com)Personal financeRoger Nusbaum, "Having your health and owning your time doesn't have to require having a lot of money." (rogersplanning.blogspot.com)Five things that move the financial needle including 'reverse budgeting.' (thomaskopelman.com)A bear market is an opportunity to do Roth IRA conversions. (wsj.com)Is imposter syndrome costing you money? (refinery29.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns21 hr. 58 min. ago Related News

Dave Ramsey On Annuities

There is a lot of confusion‌ ‌about‌ ‌annuities. ‌According to a Secure Retirement Institute study, only 25% of respondents to an annuity knowledge questionnaire scored a passing grade (70%). ‌Because of all the ‌uncertainty around annuities, it’s understandable that you would turn to expert advice for more clarification. And, it wouldn’t be surprising if you […] There is a lot of confusion‌ ‌about‌ ‌annuities. ‌According to a Secure Retirement Institute study, only 25% of respondents to an annuity knowledge questionnaire scored a passing grade (70%). ‌Because of all the ‌uncertainty around annuities, it’s understandable that you would turn to expert advice for more clarification. And, it wouldn’t be surprising if you listened to what Dave Ramsey says on annuities. Dave Ramsey, if you’re somehow unfamiliar, is considered one of the leading voices regarding business and money. He’s the author of five New Time Times bestsellers. And the Dave Ramsey Show reaches millions of people. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more While Dave has helped a number of people get their finances in order and offers sound advice, like the envelope-budget system, that’s not the case with annuities. Overall, Ramsey isn’t much of a fan of annuities. Why? Let’s take a closer look at his views on annuities, mainly from “The Retirement Crisis: Are Annuities the Answer?” And the misconceptions that he’s wrong about. First Misconception “Dave isn’t a fan of annuities, and there are plenty of reasons why. One of the main reasons is that annuities have significant expenses that reduce the growth of your investment. Annuities also have surrender charges on early withdrawals that can limit access to your money in the first few years after you buy the annuity.” Dave brings up some valid concerns regarding annuities. But let’s go ahead and unpack the truth. An annuity is not an investment; Rather, it’s an insurance contract. A surrender charge is only applied if you withdraw more than‌ ‌the penalty-free‌ ‌withdrawal‌ ‌amount. ‌Therefore, planning reduces this risk, and diversifying ‌minimizes ‌unnecessary ‌risk. There are no significant expenses associated with all annuities. ‌For example, most fixed annuities don’t charge‌ ‌fees. Yes, some annuities have high commissions. For example, standard agent pay could be 4% to 7% for a variable annuity. But, fixed-rate and single-premium annuities typically range between 1% to 3%. To put that in perspective, the average commission for a mutual fund is between 1% to 1.25%. There are also no-load annuities. ‌They are not sold by commission-based brokers or planners. As such, they do not pay commissions. What’s more, if you make a withdrawal from your mutual fund, it could cost you more than an annuity. Why? By law, sales charges can be as high as 8.5% — but most are‌ ‌3‌% ‌to‌ ‌6‌%. But, of course, that’s also in addition to the annual costs. An annuity, on the other hand, only incurs surrender penalties. ‌Surrender charges are usually 7 percent of your withdrawal amount the first year and get smaller every year after that. After that, and according to your contract, you may be allowed to withdraw up to 10 percent of the annuity’s current value without paying a surrender fee. Second Misconception “But those guarantees also mean lower returns than you could get by investing in the stock market with mutual funds.” In reality? Even if the fund’s performance were negative for a given year, the fixed annuity would provide a better‌ ‌return. ‌In addition, the annuity would be better off in a market where the performance doesn’t offset the fund costs and commissions. Furthermore, comparing the performance of stocks and fixed annuities is like comparing Chevy Spark to a Chevy Tahoe. The Spark is much cheaper at just over $15,000. But I wouldn’t want to drive that vehicle in a severe snowstorm — especially if you have a family. Both vehicles are designed for different purposes. Third Misconception “A typical fixed annuity may offer a five percent guaranteed annual payout with 1.15 percent in annual fees. That lowers your actual return to just 3.85 percent. With good growth stock mutual funds, you can earn much higher rates of return — as much as 12 percent based on the market’s long-term historical average. “Using those figures, a $10,000 fixed annuity will grow to $32,000 in 30 years at 3.85 percent. But a $10,000 mutual fund investment could grow to almost $360,000 in 30 years!” Why is this a misconception? Well, the 5 percent payout isn’t a rate of interest. ‌‌‌Also, besides being high in a fixed annuity world, the 1.15 percent fee‌ ‌would‌ ‌not‌ ‌be‌ ‌deducted‌ ‌from‌ ‌the‌ ‌guaranteed‌ ‌‌payout. But let’s look at another example. “Annuity Think Tank gave a stellar example of two investors who had $100,000 to invest from 2000 through today,” writes Rachel Summit for the Annuity FYI blog. “The investor who had their money in an S & P 500 index from October 2000 through October this year would have $90,000 right now.” That’s not a good scenario. ‌However, a 10-year fixed annuity purchased in 2000, with 7% guarantees, would be worth $196,000 today. Not too shabby, right? “While you may not get the highest returns in a really upmarket with annuities, you are protected from losing money in a down market, and I think that is worth a lot,” Rachel adds. According to Ramsey, there is no reason to purchase fixed equity-indexed annuities, and those interested in investing in an index should do so directly. “That argument was already refuted with the above example of investors who would have $90,000 or $196,000 for their invested $100,000 twelve years later.” Fourth Misconception When Dave was asked by a reader named Quincy if annuities are good for long-term retirement, here was his response; “The short answer is no. There might be a rare exception when I’d use a variable annuity — which is a mutual fund inside of an annuity — but as a rule, I don’t use annuities. And I certainly don’t use fixed annuities for anything, because they’re just crap. Basically, they’re a CD with a huge set of fees. It’s just an insurance agent’s product, really.” Okay. So, again, there’s a lot to unpack here. But, since we covered some of this above, let’s focus on the fact that annuities aren’t suitable for long-term retirement. People who are looking for a reliable income stream during their retirement should consider annuities. ‌But, again, annuities‌ ‌are‌ ‌not investment products with high returns. ‌As a result, annuities are a great addition to someone’s financial portfolio when they are approaching‌ ‌or‌ ‌in‌ ‌retirement. But don’t just take my word on this. ‌In a white-pot paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the authors state‌ ‌that “standard economic models of life-cycle spending patterns imply that the portfolio of a risk-averse individual should include a substantial portfolio share in life annuities as a hedge against uncertainty about length-of-life.” By viewing annuities as investments rather than insurance, this statement shows that annuities can make an excellent addition to a balanced portfolio for some types of investors. What’s more, an annuity with a long-term care rider attached can cover both long-term care and everyday expenses. Additionally, LTC income from annuities is that it is tax-free and can be inheritable. And the insurance company will not raise your premium. Fifth Misconception “In addition to fees, you’ll also need to consider taxes. In most cases, the growth of funds in an annuity is taxed at your ordinary-income tax rate when you withdraw the money. But when you invest in mutual funds through a Roth IRA, as Dave recommends, you can withdraw that money tax-free in retirement.” Yes. ‌If you withdraw income from an annuity, it will usually be taxed as ordinary income. But, that also depends on the type of annuity. For example, the interest rate is fixed for a long ‌time with a fixed annuity. ‌Also, the interest rate is not affected by market movements. And an annuity’s investment gains are not taxable as long as you don’t withdraw them. On the other hand, an annuity that is linked to market performance is a variable annuity. Therefore, until you withdraw the proceeds from the annuity, your earnings are tax-deferred. An annuity funded with a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA may allow you to avoid paying taxes. Because Roths are funded with after-tax dollars, you do not pay taxes upon withdrawals. Additionally, annuities often come with tax advantages. ‌For example, when used to pay premiums for long-term care insurance, the interest earned on annuities is usually tax-free. ‌Also, a qualified annuity bought with untaxed funds can be deducted. The Bottom Line According to Dave Ramsey, annuities aren’t a good option for most people. And they should not be the default option. ‌According to him, although the promise of a stable income is enticing, 401(k) plans and mutual funds are better investments. However, that’s not really the disadvantage of annuities. They are generally long-term products, meaning you can’t access the funds for a long time. If you make an early withdrawal, you may have to pay a surrender charge. Additionally, annuities do come with management fees, rider charges, and commissions — but not as much as Dave says. And, some annuities may not earn as much interest as other investments. But, they are less risky and more predictable. Also,‌ ‌Dave‌ ‌still‌ ‌believes‌ ‌that‌ ‌variable‌ ‌annuities are a good investment for some individuals who‌ ‌are avid‌ ‌investors. ‌However, he explained that an annuity should only be considered after other tax-favored retirement plans have been exhausted. ‌In other words, you’ve maxed out your other retirement plans like a Roth IRA or 401(k). And, actually, we also agree on that! There’s something else we agree on. ‌Get help from a financial advisor or certified investment professional to fully understand your options and the good, bad, and downright ugly of your choices. As Dave says, “never invest in what you lack understanding of.” Frequently Asked Questions What is an annuity? An annuity is a contract between you and an insurance company. You can protect your principal, earn lifetime income, pay for long-term care, and plan your legacy with an annuity. The premium can be paid to the issuer as a lump sum or over ‌time. ‌Annuity payments can also be made as a lump sum or recurring‌ ‌payments. ‌Companies such as insurance companies, banks, brokerage firms, and mutual fund companies sell annuities. How does an annuity work? Again, you usually make an annuity‌ ‌payment‌ ‌right‌ ‌now. ‌Consequently, you’ll receive a series of payments that begin at a later date. ‌Paying you in regular installments over a standard period of time is another option. For example, you might receive payments every month, quarterly, or annually. ‌Or you can get a lump sum. In addition, you may be able to set the payments to continue for as long as your spouse lives, depending on the type of annuity you select. ‌If a beneficiary doesn’t get all their payments, they can inherit the remaining benefits from certain types of annuities. ‌In‌ ‌addition,‌ ‌some‌ ‌annuities‌ ‌give you inflation-adjusted payments. What types of annuities exist? There are four types of annuities to be aware of for most people: Deferred income annuities. ‌With this plan, you’ll receive lifetime payments generated from the money you already possess. Immediate annuities. ‌It is possible to receive payments forever or for a limited‌ ‌time. Fixed deferred annuities. ‌While you are waiting for payments, you will get a fixed annual rate of return, and the payment of your premiums is‌ ‌guaranteed. Variable annuities. ‌A‌ ‌long-term‌ ‌investment product that allows you to invest‌ ‌in‌ ‌the‌ ‌markets. ‌In good markets, variable annuities can grow, but in bad markets, they can also cause losses. How is my money invested with an annuity? Owning a fixed annuity means you never have to worry about your investments or returns. ‌Additionally, your payments remain the same all the way to retirement. A variable annuity doesn’t work like that. ‌Basically, your return depends a lot on the investments you pick. ‌Shortly put, if your investments are underperforming, so will your return. On the flip side, the return will be higher if they outperform. How‌ ‌about‌ ‌indexed‌ ‌equity‌ ‌annuities? ‌You get returns by investing in a specific index, like the S&P 500. Is an annuity a good retirement vehicle? Annuities provide a guaranteed income stream in retirement. As such, they can be a valuable addition to your portfolio. ‌No other retirement product provides this benefit. In addition, a fixed annuity with a low-risk level helps balance out the riskier investments you have. Generally, many people do not just have one retirement product; they spread their retirement savings across different products. ‌As well as their savings, they may have a pension, an IRA, and a 401(k). ‌A separate portfolio of investments may also be available to them. With that said, an annuity would make the most amount of sense if; You need a low-risk means of growing your money steadily for retirement. As a retiree, you would like to safely earn interest on your nest egg. Your retirement income isn’t enough, so you want to supplement it. You‌ ‌want‌ ‌to‌ ‌invest‌ ‌for the long run. Article by John Rampton, Due About the Author John Rampton is an entrepreneur and connector. When he was 23 years old while attending the University of Utah he was hurt in a construction accident. His leg was snapped in half. He was told by 13 doctors he would never walk again. Over the next 12 months he had several surgeries, stem cell injections and learned how to walk again. During this time he studied and mastered how to make money work for you, not against you. He has since taught thousands through books, courses and written over 5000 articles online about finance, entrepreneurship and productivity. He has been recognized as the Top Online Influencers in the World by Entrepreneur Magazine and Finance Expert by Time . He is the Founder and CEO of Due. Updated on Jun 28, 2022, 4:42 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJun 28th, 2022Related News

Tuesday links: supply and demand imbalances

StrategyBear markets, 101. (monevator.com)Investing isn't supposed to be fun or exciting. (morningstar.com)Why you should sin a little when it comes to market timing. (bloomberg.com)Your benchmark is not necessarily the stock market. (thefinancialbodyguard.com)CryptoBitcoin miners are up against it, from a profit perspective. (ft.com)Matt Hougan, "I think crypto remains in the land of hype and hyperbole." (etf.com)Netflix Netflix ($NFLX) is investing more in Asia. (finance.yahoo.com)Streaming subscribers prefer HBO Max but are still holding on their Netflix ($NFLX) subs. (variety.com)Spotify ($SPOT) is acting more like an Aggregator than Netflix ($NFLX). (stratechery.com)Fund managementMuni bonds are increasingly held by funds not individuals. (wsj.com)Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is lowering expenses on a handful of ETFs. (riabiz.com)EconomyFifteen reasons why inflation got out of control including the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (ritholtz.com)Inflation is showing up in ways that don't always include higher prices. (theguardian.com)Where one year ahead inflation forecasts stand. (econbrowser.com)House prices were still strong through April. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Why you don't need to worry about the Fed losing money on its balance sheet items. (pragcap.com)Derek Thompson and Conor Sen on why the economy may not be in recession. (theringer.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsResearch links: memory bias. (abnormalreturns.com)What you may have missed in our Monday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Adviser links: good enough rules. (abnormalreturns.com)The Covid-19 vaccines saved a nearly unfathomable number of people. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaEVs now make up 5.1% of new auto registrations in the U.S. (axios.com)Why we need to accelerate EV production and adoption. (avc.com)Will an electric Ferrari or Lamborghini still mean as much? (nytimes.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsJun 28th, 2022Related News

Your July 4 cookout will cost 11% more this year. See how much the price of everything —from beer to burgers — has gone up.

Expect to pay more for burgers and beer. Fortunately, some picnic favorites — like fresh tomatoes and pretzels — aren't seeing big price increases. A man holds a burger topped with an American flag decoration.Getty Images Other than fireworks, nothing says Fourth of July more than a backyard barbecue. But this year, inflation may make some of those gatherings more pricey than usual. Wells Fargo broke down some of the biggest cost increases in a blog post. In the United States, the Fourth of July is linked with two things: fireworks and food.Americans traditionally celebrate the holiday with festive cookouts. The summertime feast typically features items like burgers, hot dogs, booze, and frozen treats.But thanks to inflation, purchasing classic Independence Day staples could leave consumers feeling like a round of firecrackers just went off in their wallet. Wells Fargo sector analyst Karol Aure-Flynn recently broke down the latest price increases in a blog post for the bank, finding that a cookout for 10 could spike in price by 11% year over year.1. Beef: Burgers are a classic Fourth of July meal, although this year fresh ground beef has gone up 11.8%.A beef burger on a grill.Source: Wells Fargo 2. Frozen treats: According to Wells Fargo, ice cream prices could have consumers feeling the chill, with a 6% spike over the last year. That being said, those looking for a thaw could opt for "nondairy desserts, such as sherbet, gelato, and popsicles," which dropped in cost by 4.5% according to the bank.An adult hands a frozen treat to a child.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 3. Booze: A pre-cookout trip to the liquor store could leave some shoppers' heads spinning. The cost of beer is up nearly 25% over last year. Cost-conscious consumers may instead opt for wine, which has only seen a 5.8% uptick.Bottles of beer sit in a cooler.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 4. Pretzels: Wells Fargo found that pretzel prices have only gone up 5%.A pile of pretzels.Getty Images5. Vegetables: Wells Fargo estimated that the retail produce prices have gone up 7% overall. Fresh tomatoes have seen a 1% increase, making them the low-cost topping of the summer.A cluster of red, ripe tomatoes.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 6. Condiments: Mayonnaise, ketchup, and mustard have all undergone price increases, largely thanks to the rising cost of raw ingredients, an increase in takeout orders, and even climate change.A spoonful of mayonnaise.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo, Insider, Insider7. Buns: According to Wells Fargo, hamburger and hot dog buns have spiked 10% in price since last year, partly due to the war in Ukraine. The nation is a major grain producer.Texas Wiener hot dogs sit on a tray.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 8. Sodas: Wells Fargo found that national-brand sodas increased 13% in price since 2021.A close-up shot of soda bubbles.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 9. Pork: According to Wells Fargo, swapping out burgers for pork chops could be a money-saving move this Independence Day. The bank found that prices for pork are up 3.1%, far less than other proteins.A grilled pork chop.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo 10. Chicken: Chicken prices have taken wing over the past year, with wings skyrocketing by 38% and breasts soaring by 24%.Chicken on a barbecue grill.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo, Insider11. Hot dogs: Last year, hot dog prices went up around the Fourth of July. And this year, it's the same story for frankfurters. Wells Fargo estimated that hot dog costs jumped more than 12% this year.Hot dogs on a grill.Getty ImagesSource: Wells Fargo, InsiderRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 28th, 2022Related News

Nomura: Everyone Is Waiting For This "Final" Shoe To Drop Before The All-Clear Signal

Nomura: Everyone Is Waiting For This "Final" Shoe To Drop Before The All-Clear Signal Having come back from a brief vacation, Nomura's cross-asset guru, Charlie McElligott looks back at last week's action and finds that just as we observed recently, “bad news was good news” again, as markets turned focus from “high inflation” to “deteriorating growth”, manifesting in a very significant re-pricing of “hard-landing” odds from perceived “CB policy-error >> Recession” meme (more evidence, as per global PMIs joining the “wrong way” growth data parade) which then dictated a powerful “reversal blast” of monetization in prior “trend trades” (a rally in heavily-shorted Bonds and Equities versus a selloff in Commodities and USD “longs”). As a result, markets removed a whopping 1.5 hikes for this Fed cycle, and pulling-forward the "end of Fed tightening"  by as early as 4Q22 / 1Q23 (FFZ2FFH3 shows removal of 32.5bps of implied Fed hiking over the past two weeks alone, with the market now expecting Fed cuts next year off the back of the economic slowdown (as we described in detail in "Fed Rate-Hikes To End This Year, Followed By 3% Of Rate-Cuts & QE"). This, as McElligott notes, meant big shocks across trend trades, with “winners” blasted lower and “losers / shorts” powerfully squeezed higher, and proceeds to highlight the following unique feedback loop: This “risk of a Recession” hammered Commodities and Inflation Expectations (e.g. Breakevens continuing their recent collapse off highs... -> Which lowered currently perceived Inflationary pressures...  -> Which is viewed as allowing the Fed to be less aggressive... ->  Which means we “cut the left tail” of a hard-landing recession!    Said another way, markets “leapt” at the opportunity provided by weakening growth, lower inflation expectations and collapsing commodities momentum to “anticipate the anticipators” and jump the “dovish” gun—again trying to “call the bluff” of Central Bankers who remain overly sensitive to a “growth > inflation” prioritization / reaction-function conditioning. McElligott next notes that, beyond these constructive macro “qualitative” tailwinds for Equities, we also saw Big covering of grossed-up shorts that led to a “net-up” of exposure, while the Spot rally saw Puts hammered and a thus, a massive amount of Short Delta hedge to unwind; Street feedback continues to indicate monster corp buyback flows ahead of the “blackout” (75% of SPX mkt cap in blackout by july 4th); Expectations of robust positive Equities rebal flows ($30BN) into Month / Qtr–end; and The big quarterly Put Spread Collar roll, where the low strike of the PS removed mkt downside and suppressed Vol on our worst recent levels, where now, there is a lumpy amount of Vega sold and Delta bot as we approach Jun30—hence the “fear of the right tail” rally continues to trump “crash,” as there still isn’t a lot of positioning on to hedge. With that in mind, the market now awaits the commencement of the much-discussed negative earnings revision “clearing” event, as the "final" shoe to drop following what the YTD drawdown that has been almost entirely due to the Rates impact on the multiple. Here, echoing Morgan Stanley, Bank of America (and even Goldman), McElligott notes that a flush down to 3300-3400 is the perceived “all-clear” on the valuation case for Equities, with the whole world seemingly bid “out loud” down there for size, which means it either doesn’t happen and we don’t trade low enough, or conversely, we do trade down there, but the supposed size demand doesn’t materialize, and we get the puke through 3k. In the meantime and after the “trend trade” reversal shocks of last week, yesterday saw the resumption of the “recession trade” in US Equities: 1) Energy 2) Utilities 3) Healthcare 4) Staples, which tells you that the said economic contraction concerns are driving the ongoing “Defensive” / “Low Risk” / “Quality” posture. Fixed-income also again reversed to prior footing and is weakening with ongoing volatile gaps, partially due to Energy stabilization as China reduces quarantine times in half (one step closer to full re-open) and Ukraine / Russia “calm” narrative seen over the past week and half looks increasingly iffy. Yet, as Charlie notes, at the same time, we see more signs of CB indecisiveness and noting their seeming “perpetually asymmetric conditioning” as it relates to “growth” concerns remaining tantamount over all others "scar tissue,” as old habits die hard.  The latest case in point: ECB’s Lagarde from Sintra this morning, "who is yet-again confusing and vacillating with almost dovish messaging, which comes just weeks after her and the council’s hawkish pivot!" Charlie here hands over the mic to his Nomura colleague Marco Brancolini who captures the latest absurdity, which only again creates confusion and front-end rates volatility, with CB’ers kowtowing to growth and market concerns, despite their inflation disaster sitting at the root of those issues: Lagarde is flip-flopping, signalling a resurgent concern for growth. The focus on “optionality” will leave the front end unanchored and highly volatile. Her words appear to suggest that only Sep is data-dependent, but it will be hard to receive July anyway until a week before the meeting, as headlines and data can push the market around. Confusingly, after the June pivot, Lagarde’s speech hails back to the framework of the May blog, noting that “in this environment, it is imperative for policymakers, within their respective mandates, to address the risks to the economic outlook”. I am not sure this is a u-turn in framework: there is a high chance that she may be simply trying to reassure markets after last week’s chatter of recession. I still think the Council will give primacy to inflation over growth, even at the cost of ending up with a recession. The “optionality principle” is spelt out: “If the inflation outlook does not improve, we will have sufficient information to move faster. This commitment is, however, data dependent.” My understanding from the transcript is that such data dependency, however, only applies to September – in contradiction to what Kazaks told Econostream. July is at 32bp – as it’s been the case all year, it is hard to trade ECB dates on a fundamental basis until a week or ten days before the meeting, and it will be especially hard to stay received into this week’s inflation data. I will be happy to receive July ECB from the 10th onwards, not earlier. Lagarde emphasised again “gradualism” and “optionality” – so expect limited visibility beyond the second meeting, as the ECB will remain data-dependent. The trigger for more aggressive tightening action are “higher inflation threatening to de-anchor inflation expectations, or signs of a more permanent loss of economic potential that limits resource availability”. The ECB already pencils in “wage growth above 4% in 2022 and 2023 and at 3.7% in 2024” – this is a level compatible with inflation higher than 2%, so clearly wage data will be front and centre when we talk about ECB data dependency. This, as McElligott notes, is the problem: you have to hold the line and see the hikes through now…otherwise, reflexive markets front-run this indecisiveness and ease financial conditions, which is counter-productive to inflation breaking efforts. We all get the joke: Central Banks can only pull the “demand” lever and attempt to weaken inflation via labor mkt impact on consumption, unable to address the supply-chain issues and both structural and idiosyncratic energy / commod market dynamics…hence the never-ending stream of memes: But at the end of the day, it’s the inflation volatility which will keep the front-end unstable and behind cross-asset moves... ... as event-weightings around monthly data (and reactive CB’s thereafter) keep us lunging: Inflation will continue to surprise in its “stickiness” and strength over the upcoming months, particularly as it moves into “Services” Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast currently projecting fresh highs for CPI YoY “High inflation means volatile inflation” and “inflation tends to trend” as local headwinds for sentiment, positioning and risk management Concluding his recap, Charlie writes that for now "this ongoing tilt in 'upside' inflation data, and persistently reactive Central Bank “hawkish impulse” thereafter, will continue to reinforce negative impact in the rate / credit –sensitive parts of the economy…effectively “self-fulfilling” a recession"... ... as consumer sentiment plummets and broad activity loses momentum. Which of course, is the best case scenario for stocks because as Rabobank noted earlier, the market endlessly wonders how long until we cut rates and restart QE again. The answer: a recession should do it. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/28/2022 - 13:25.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJun 28th, 2022Related News

Buy-And-Holders Should Be Critical Of Shiller’s Research Findings

Buy-and-Holders believe that market timing is a bad idea. It never works, they claim. Investors are rational. So they always set stock prices as close to where they should be set as possible. Any individual who thinks that he is better able to ascertain the proper price of stocks than the market as a whole […] Buy-and-Holders believe that market timing is a bad idea. It never works, they claim. Investors are rational. So they always set stock prices as close to where they should be set as possible. Any individual who thinks that he is better able to ascertain the proper price of stocks than the market as a whole is fooling himself. Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller disagrees. He believes that irrational exuberance is an important contributing factor to stock prices. He published research showing that today’s CAPE level predicts the stock return that will apply for the next 10 years because overpriced stocks perform worse than fairly priced stocks. Shiller’s research shows that market timing is required for any investor who wants to keep his risk profile constant over time. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Views Of Buy-And-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers You would think that advocates of Shiller’s ideas and advocates of Buy-and-Hold would be at each other’s throats. I of course do not mean that that should be so in a literal sense. I mean in an intellectual sense. Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers have opposite views on the fundamentals of how the stock market operates. So you would think that we would be seeing arguments between the two opposing camps appearing on internet discussion boards and blogs on a daily basis. I think that that would be great. It is my belief that all advances in a society’s understanding of a subject are achieved when established ideas are challenged by the proponents of a new set of ideas. The effort on both sides of the debate to present the best possible argument requires all parties to continually sharpen their thinking. The result over time is a better and better and better informed discussion. Knowledge grows and grows and grows, to the benefit of everyone. We have not seen such clashes of thought in the investment advice field since Shiller published his amazing research findings in 1981. Hardly ever have we seen it. It’s an exceedingly strange reality, in my assessment. Buy-and-Hold remains dominant. There are investors who have been influenced by Shiller’s findings. They make up about 10 percent of the investing population. But rarely do they publicly find fault with the majority viewpoint that opposes their own. And rarely do the Buy-and-Holders acknowledge the presence of the 10 percent that views their take on how stock investing works as dangerous. How Stock Investing Works It’s not that most people don’t view the question of how stock investing works as unimportant. I believe that the explanation of the odd phenomenon is just the opposite. We all see this one as being too important. If it turns out that Shiller is right (I believe that he is), then the vast majority of experts in this field have been giving very bad advice to millions of investors for 41 years now. That’s a highly embarrassing reality for all of us. So it has become taboo to speak of it. The longer the cover-up goes on, the more embarrassing a reality it becomes. So, paradoxically, the stronger the case against Buy-and-Hold becomes in an intellectual sense, the less likely you are to hear it argued. I have been writing about these matters for 20 years now. I hear people make the case for Buy-and-Hold all the time. I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of times that I have seen a Buy-and-Holder take on Shiller. The sense that I get is that Buy-and-Holders respect Shiller. He was awarded a Nobel prize for his work. So it is entirely understandable why they would respect him. But in ordinary circumstances I would think that the advocates of a strategy discredited by Nobel-prize-winning research would feel compelled to respond to those findings, both to reassure themselves and to reassure those who have staked their retirement hopes on their investment advice. It never happens. Buy-and-Holders respect Shiller. But they patronize him. They essentially pat him on the head and remark how impressive it is that he was awarded that Nobel prize and then resume advancing the same investment advice that they were advancing in the days before Shiller came on the scene. No market timing now! It’s more than a little maddening. I believe that the driver here is that Shiller’s research represents such a huge advance in our understanding that people do not feel comfortable acknowledging that there are today two academically respectable models for understanding how stock investing works. People must be sure that the investment advice they are hearing is valid! So there can only be one widely recognized model! Since Buy-and-Hold got there first, it will be Buy-and-Hold until the day arrives when there is a universal consensus that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior. And of course that day cannot arrive until the debate over which model is the right one commences. Buy-and-Hold is the real thing! Buy-and-Hold works! Market timing is a bad idea! Maybe. Rob’s bio is here. 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Category: blogSource: valuewalkJun 28th, 2022Related News

Research links: memory bias

Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at... ResearchIs the overnight effect the biggest anomaly hiding in plain sight? (elmwealth.com)How factors can be used in fixed income management. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com)Don't use the CAPE ratio to time markets. (evidenceinvestor.com)When selecting mutual funds it matters more to avoid the worst funds than identifying the best. (alphaarchitect.com)Why public pension funds should adopt a one-size-fits-all portfolio or 'Universal Investment Portfolio.' (papers.ssrn.com)Are long/short strategies preferable to direct indexing when managing individual positions? (aqr.com)Comparing the performance of micro VCs and traditional VCs. (papers.ssrn.com)Robin Powell talks with Mario Klenzer and Gustav Tinghög about their research into who is at-risk of 'financial BS.' (youtube.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsJun 28th, 2022Related News

A mystery rocket crashed into moon and left a "double crater," NASA says

NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spotted a double crater on the moon from a spacecraft impact. So far, no country has taken responsibility. An identified rocket body hit the moon on March 4, 2022, creating a double crater. The image was taken with NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter on May 25.NASA/GSFC/Arizona State University On March 4, a rocket booster slammed into the moon and left behind a double crater. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter later spotted the unusual crater on the far side of the moon. So far, no country has taken responsibility for the rocket and the resulting collision. NASA has spotted the crash site of a mystery rocket that slammed into the far side of the moon in March, leaving behind a double crater.New images taken May 25 and shared by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter on June 24 showed the unusual crater. The collision resulted in two overlapping impact sites — an eastern crater measuring 59 feet (18 meters) across and a western crater spanning 52.5 feet (16 meters). Astronomers expected the impact after discovering that an unidentified piece of space junk was on a collision course with the moon late last year. But "the double crater was unexpected," the space agency said in a press release. "No other rocket body impacts on the moon created double craters." NASA says two large masses on each end of the rocket may have caused the two craters, but that would be unusual, since spent rockets tend to have a heavy motor at one end and a lighter empty fuel tank at the other.According to 2016 data from Arizona State University, at least 47 NASA rocket bodies have created "spacecraft impacts" on the moon.Craters formed by impacts of the Apollo S-IVB stages. At least 47 NASA rocket bodies have created "spacecraft impacts" on the moon, but none are double craters.NASA/GSFC/Arizona State University"I must confess that I'd naively thought it would be easier to find and would have been located shortly after impact," Bill Gray, the astronomer who first discovered the mysterious object and alerted NASA about its eventual collision, wrote on his blog Project Pluto, where he uses software to track near-Earth objects. He pointed to efforts to find the booster for Apollo 16, which NASA shot at the moon in 1972 to study moonquakes. But before the Apollo 16 booster could hit the moon, NASA lost contact with it. The impact location remained elusive for years."Finding one small crater among hordes of craters isn't all that easy," Gray wrote of the Apollo 16 crater, adding, "That crater was found about six years after the other Apollo booster impacts. Compared to that, having to wait about three months looks pretty good."So far, no spacefaring nation has taken credit — or blame — for the mysterious rocket, reports Universe Today. "Since the origin of the rocket body remains uncertain, the double nature of the crater may indicate its identity," NASA said in a press release.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJun 27th, 2022Related News

The Age Of Discord

The Age Of Discord Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, It's very difficult to find common ground that supports cooperation in the disintegrative stage of scarcities, rising prices, catastrophically centralized power and social discord. Today's topic echoes Peter Turchin's 2016 book, Ages of Discord, which I have often referenced in blog posts. I'll also discuss two other books I've often referenced, Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century by Geoffrey Parker and The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer. Turchin proposes repeating cycles of history of social integration (people finding reasons to cooperate) and disintegration (people finding reasons to not cooperate). Clearly, we're in a disintegrative stage. Fischer proposed a repeating cycle of history in which humans expand their numbers and economy to consume all available resources. Once all the low-hanging fruit has been consumed, scarcities arise, pushing prices above what commoners can afford, and the result is economic stagnation and social/political revolution. Either humans exploit a new energy source at scale to provide for the larger population and higher consumption per person, or the population and consumption decline to fit available resources. Parker covers the mutually reinforcing climate, political, social and economic crises of the 17th century. A long cycle of cold, wet summers reduced crop yields, leading to hunger and strife. Parker also identifies another cause of the tumultuous, war-plagued 1600s: political leaders had consolidated too much power, enabling them to pursue disastrous wars without any restraint from competing domestic social-political interests. Clearly, we're in Fischer's stage of overshoot and resource scarcity and Parker's extremes of centralized power free to pursue catastrophic wars of choice. In the 1600s, those launching wars reckoned a clean, decisive victory was within easy reach. In every case, the wars dragged on inconclusively or generated even wider conflicts. In the end, all the wars were settled diplomatically, not by military victory. The military gains were nil while the destruction was widespread and devastating. Fischer details how poorly humans respond to scarcity and higher prices, also known as inflation or more. accurately, as the decline in purchasing power of money and labor. As scarcities and higher prices take their toll, society unravels: crime and social disorder accelerate. What we're seeing in real time is a "circle the wagons" mentality of weeding out everyone but the True Believers in every movement. Litmus tests are handy for this test: answer wrong on any question and you're cast out: heretic! It's not enough to tick one "progressive" or "conservative" box; you have to tick them all or you're a heretic who cannot be trusted. If you leave one box unticked, you might untick a few more in the days ahead. This puts pressure on everyone to declare their loyalty to the "party" even if the loyalty is just for show. This dishonesty pleases those demanding every box be ticked but this forced loyalty creates an illusion of solidarity that unravels under pressure. Officials vie to offer pledges of loyalty to Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of 20th Party Congress Exacerbating this is social media, which rewards those promoting the most extreme and divisive positions and deranges the populace by substituting recognition online, which encourages disintegration, for real-world engagement, which encourages moderation and cooperation. Online, it's easy to be all-or-nothing: there should be no restrictions on social media, or we should just pull the plug and shut the whole mess down. In the real world, these are knotty, nuanced problems. The Founding Fathers would not have tolerated sedition under the guise of free speech. The social order can only be maintained if every participant adheres to standards of civility and the common good. When put under stress, humans harden their positions as a defensive measure. They become more argumentative and less tolerant, more strident in insisting that the One True Thing is the answer to our problems. This leads to magical thinking, for example, that we can replace hydrocarbons with fusion or wind and solar. When the physical and cost limits of minerals are presented as impassable obstacles, people respond with denial: there must be a way to keep everything the same. Humans have an easy time expanding their population and consumption per person and a hard time consuming less. It's very difficult to find common ground that supports cooperation in the disintegrative stage of scarcities, rising prices, catastrophically centralized power and social discord. This requires accepting that we can cooperate with people on one issue even though all the other boxes of our group/party/movement are left unticked. History suggests the disintegrative stage will run its course and consumption will realign with available resources one way or another, and the best we can do is preserve our own sanity, community and willingness to nurture small patches of common ground that support productive cooperation. *  *  * My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.   Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 17:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 27th, 2022Related News

Brands, Metaverse And NFTs: Why They Need Each Other And What Benefits They Can Get By This Collaboration

Fuad Fatullaev, Co-founder and CEO of WeWay ‒ a Web3 ecosystem for bloggers, celebrities, and media personalities The NFT and metaverse technologies are changing rapidly today, attracting more and more brands to unique projects that hold the potential to forever change the future. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzingaJun 27th, 2022Related News

Yelp closing D.C. office in commitment to remote work

CEO Jeremy Stoppelman said in a blog post very little of the D.C. space is being used......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsJun 27th, 2022Related News

How many Instagram followers you need to start getting paid

When can a content creator start making money on Instagram with brand deals, or affiliate marketing? We spoke with dozens of influencers to find out. Tomi Obebe is a micro influencer on Instagram.Tomi Obebe A couple thousand followers on Instagram qualifies some users as "influencers." But at what point — and with how many followers — can an influencer start making money? Insider has talked with dozens of influencers about when they started making money, how, and how much. With a few thousand followers on Instagram these days, it's easy to ask yourself: When can I start making money doing this?The good news is, there's no strict minimum. Three influencers Insider interviewed — all with under 3,000 Instagram followers — said they got paid by brands to post to their small audiences.For instance, Kayla Compton became a brand ambassador for jewelry company PuraVida with less than 2,000 followers, she told Insider last year. She said her starting sponsored-content package at the time was $250, and that she also got paid by sharing affiliate links or codes with her followers and earning a small commission.And now, it's easier than ever to share affiliate links on Instagram stories since the company rolled out access to link stickers to all accounts in October. Instagram is also directly paying some influencers through incentive programs like "Bonuses" for Reels, which requires at least 1,000 views on Reels (rather than a follower minimum). On the other hand, other Instagram monetization features like "Badges," Instagram's tipping tool for IG Live, require that creators have at least 10,000 followers. Many of these programs also are limited to certain countries, have an age minimum of 18, and require accounts to be registered as business or creator accounts on the app. While the doors have opened for many more creators on Instagram to start making a living, often they don't start making full-time incomes immediately (although a fair number of micro influencers with under 100,000 followers work full-time as influencers). Read more: 19 content creators share how they turned their social-media side hustles into full-time jobsToday, influencers no longer need hundreds of thousands of followers to start earning cash.Here are a few reasons why:"Nano" and "micro" influencers (typically accounts with fewer than 100,000 followers) are being hired by many brands across industries. These smaller influencers have demonstrated the power of niche and engaged communities on Instagram, where fake followers and disproportional engagement have flooded the platform. Influencers can earn hundreds to thousands of dollars from these deals. Meta-owned Instagram is opening its multi-billion-dollar wallet and paying some influencers, which it announced last year with a flashy $1 billion investment into content creators through 2022.Affiliate links are easier to share now than ever. Some affiliate programs do have their own requirements, however, such as LTK or ShopStyle. Instagram also is testing its own affiliate marketing program, which is available to a select number of creators at the moment. Influencers can get paid a commission on sales driven directly through Instagram. Bethany Everett-Ratcliffe, who's already enrolled and had 16,000 followers when Insider first interviewed her, earned more than $500 in one month. Check out: Leaked commission rates from September 2021 reveal how much brands in Instagram's affiliate marketing test like Sephora were paying influencersSo, how much money are these influencers making on Instagram?Insider interviewed over two dozen Instagrammers about how much money they make, with follower counts between 2,000 and just over 100,000. Here's a full breakdown of our coverage:From brand deals:Natasha Greene, a food and lifestyle creator with 137,000 Instagram followersMacy Mariano, a travel and fashion influencer with 102,000 followersJehava Brown, a travel and lifestyle influencer with 70,000 followersNick Cutsumpas, a plant influencer with 63,700 followersAshley Jones, a fashion and lifestyle influencer with 45,000 followersTomi Obebe, a lifestyle influencer with 40,000 followersEmma Cortes, a lifestyle influencer and podcast host with 47,000 followersBritney Turner, a lifestyle influencer with 27,000 followersCaitlin Patton, a lifestyle influencer with 22,000 followersMary Margaret Boudreaux, a fashion and lifestyle influencer with 20,000 followersGigi Kovach, a part-time lifestyle blogger and mom of two with 13,500 followersTyler Chanel, a sustainability influencer with 12,000 followersKhadijah Lacey-Taylor, a fashion and lifestyle influencer with 9,800 followersTess Barclay, a lifestyle blogger with 5,600 followersLaur DeMartino, a nano influencer and full-time college student with 5,200 followersJalyn Baiden, a skincare influencer with 4,000 followersJen Lauren, a part-time lifestyle influencer with 2,900 followersAmber Broder, a part-time skincare influencer and full-time college student with 2,300 followersKayla Compton, a lifestyle nano influencer with about 2,000 Instagram followersFrom Meta Platforms, including Instagram:Kelly Anne Smith, a personal finance influencer with 12,000 Instagram followers shares how much she earned from Bonuses in MarchJackson Weimer, a meme creator who got paid more than $6,000 for views on his Reels with 114,000 followersSeveral influencers reveal the different 'bonus' payments Instagram is offering, with some stretching up to $35,000From affiliate links:Bethany Everett-Ratcliffe, a lifestyle micro influencer with 16,000 followers, makes money using Instagram's native affiliate programVi Lai, a skincare influencer, uses Instagram and TikTok to make thousands of dollars per month using affiliate marketing4 Instagram influencers reveal what the platform's exclusive affiliate marketing beta test is like — and how much they're earningRead more: Instagram is abruptly shutting down its affiliate marketing bonuses, which used to pay up to $400 a monthRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJun 27th, 2022Related News

What A Time To Be Alive

What A Time To Be Alive Submitted by Jack Raines via Young Money, A few things going on in the world today: War in Ukraine Global pandemic Political uncertainty Crashing financial markets $7 gas Layoffs Inflation And we are only two years into this century's "Roaring 20s." There is so much chaos in the world today that it's easy to say "life sucks, the world sucks, and everything sucks." Today, I am asking you to consider a different, more optimistic take: Life is good. In fact, it isn't just good. Life is the best that it has ever been. Turn Back the Clock Death If we were living in Alexandria in year 0, Kyoto during the samurai era, Stockholm in 1655, or Paris during Napoleon's reign, each of us would have had a coin flip's chance of surviving adolescence. Maybe we wouldn't have survived our own births. Maybe we would have fallen victim to famine, sickness, war, infection, labor, or an abundance of other adverse conditions.  From 500 BC to 1900 AD, death reigned supreme. The world's average youth mortality rate, defined as death before age 15, was 46.7%. Additionally, one-quarter of all infants didn't reach their first birthdays. For 2400 years, your odds of reaching your 15th birthday were reduced to the spin of a roulette wheel. But over the last century, everything changed. By 1950, the global youth mortality rate had nearly been cut in half to 27%. In 2017, we hit 4.6%. Somalia, which currently boasts the world's highest youth mortality rate at 14.8%, sits at just 1/3 of the global average from ~100 years earlier. In 2022, the death of a child is a tragic occurrence. In 1822, it was a normal part of daily life. We can't comprehend a world where early deaths were so common, yet that was the real world for millennia. Static mortality rates for centuries, then a 90% decline in just a few generations. Insane progress. Poverty In 1820, with a global population of 1.08B, 964.93M people lived in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.90 per day in 2015, adjusted for inflation). In 2015, with a global population of 7.35B, 733.48M people lived in extreme poverty. While the world's population increased by 6.3B, the number of people living in extreme poverty decreased by 230M. We often focus on wealth inequality in the US. And it's true, the wealth gap is growing. But what gets missed in this wealth gap comparison is just how much better off poor people are now than at any point in the past. You can be "poor" in the United States today and have a cellphone, an internet connection, food, and shelter. Those living in government housing today have a higher standard of living than the upper class did in year 1900. JD Rockefeller, the richest man in modern history, didn't even have air conditioning. As recently as 1981 (!!!) 42% of the world lived in extreme poverty. Today, that number is just 9%. In the last generation, global extreme poverty has dropped by 84%. A variable highly correlated to poverty? Literacy. Literacy Even centuries after the advent of the printing press, books were still reserved for the elites. Written knowledge passed down from generation to generation could only be accessed by a select few, with the rest of the populace relying on word-of-mouth communication. Letters couldn't be written. Notes couldn't be taken. Information couldn't be recorded, unless you were born into the right house. In year 1800, just 12% of the world's population was literate. In year 1900, just 21% of the world's population was literate. In year 2016, an astounding 86% of the world's population was literate. Spreadsheet built on Rows Perspective If you were born in Paris, France in 1820, you had a 56% chance of making it to your 15th birthday. Assuming you survived, there was a 38% chance that you knew how to read and write. And even if you were alive and literate, (a combination with just a 21% chance of happening), you had a 50/50 shot of being in extreme poverty. But let's say that you beat the odds. You were a living, literate Parisian with a modest income. Welcome to the good life. You would have spent your entire adulthood in a chaotic, politically unstable post-Napoleon France. Your grandchildren would have fought in WW1, and their children would have fought in WW2. The reward for overcoming all of life's obstacles was two generations of war that tore your country apart. But at least gas wasn't $7 per gallon. It's hard to internalize just how good we have it because our own life experiences are our homeostasis, our base point for comparison. We read about the hardships of history, but we don't experience them. We don't feel them. How could we? Decades of war, sickness, and hardship have been reduced to paragraphs and documentaries. But those wars, sicknesses, and hardships were all-too-real for those who lived through them. The Plague of Justinian wiped out 40% of Constantinople's population in four months. The Russian Plague killed 33% of Moscow's population in a single season, and 75% of the remaining populace fled. The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad, no doubt. But can you imagine a world with 4M New York City deaths in just four months? Where millions of others flee, fearing for their lives? Because that happened. And it happened more than once. These accounts feel like faraway stories from an era in the distant past. Lost somewhere between fact and fantasy. But they were just as real to the past generations as our conflicts are to us today. A Million Little Miracles History is nothing if not a series of mankind conquering nature's limitations. The printing press allowed our knowledge to conquer death. Penicillin allowed our bodies to conquer infection. Fertilizers allowed our farms to conquer famine. Steam engines allowed our ships to conquer windless seas. Airplanes allowed us to conquer gravity and distant travel. Phones allowed us to conquer long-distance communication. Computers allowed us to conquer the spatial limitations of data storage. Over time, these little miracles, these little breakthroughs, they compounded. Each generation built from the shoulders of their predecessors, beginning life on third base thanks to a triple hit by the generation before. And innovation has accelerated as a result. Every single thing that we take for granted today would be nothing short of a miracle to anyone who lived just 100 years ago. Supermarkets with fresh selections of every food imaginable are magic. Planes that will transport you anywhere in the world in under a day are magic. Clean water is magic. Antibiotics are magic. Cell phones are magic. Plumbing systems are magic. Anesthesia is magic. The fact that you can read this blog from New York, to New Delhi, to New Zealand is magic. But to us, none of this is magic. To us, the real magic is that our ancestors survived with so much less. Inflation sucks. Covid sucks. War sucks. High gas prices suck. But we live in a world where you can Facetime your best friend from another country, and they can fly to visit you the next day. You can instantly communicate with anyone who has an internet connection. The poorest people in first-world countries still have food, water, shelter, and access to healthcare, while 200 years ago a large gash on your leg was a death sentence. We struggle with purpose, our ancestors struggled with survival. Asking "What do I want to do with my life?" is a privilege, considering the primary concern for everyone before us was "How do I stay alive?"  So while we tweet, text, and opine about the disastrous state of the world today, it is important to remember that the depths of our modern hells would be the pinnacles of our ancestors' lives. Our problems are a privilege. - Jack If you liked this piece, make sure to subscribe by adding your email below! Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 05:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 27th, 2022Related News

Luongo: The End Of The European Colonial Powers & The Tyranny Of Physics

Luongo: The End Of The European Colonial Powers & The Tyranny Of Physics Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog. I sat down last weekend for a long chat with Alexander Mercouris of The Duran and Crypto Rich to discuss the rapidly evolving situation in Europe. Long time readers know that I’ve been handicapping the collapse of the European Union for years. That idea isn’t based on my personal antipathy for Eurotrash commies and eugenicists, though it is quite large. In fact, the deeper we go into 2022 the more that antipathy rises to near unquenchable levels. The sheer arrogance and stupidity of Europe’s leadership is nothing short of breathtaking. Today we are looking at a situation where an entire continent’s leadership is in the process of committing ritualistic suicide and yet is obsessed with portraying these self-inflicted wounds to the world as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fault. A common trait among all malignant narcissists is the inability to take any responsibility for their own actions, seeking to always shift blame onto someone else. You see this behavior in children. And it only manifests itself in adulthood because the parents refused to put any boundaries on the child or inflict any consequences on them. Look at Europe’s leaders today and to a person, man or woman, there is not one shred of self-reflection or contrition. The problem is just as endemic here amongst the Davos-affiliated American leadership. Fungal President Joe Biden keep yammering on about the “Putin Price Hike” or blaming oil companies for not being patriotic enough to keep gas and diesel prices affordable for nearly every American. But it was just a few weeks ago where these same people were telling us that we had to endure slightly higher prices at the pump to starve Russia and defend Ukraine. Biden and his party apparatchiks simply can’t give this idea up as we’re now just over four months to the mid-term elections. Biden to companies that run gas pumps: "This is a time of war. Global peril. Ukraine. These are not normal times. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you are paying for the product. Do it now. Do it today." pic.twitter.com/1SCACLd8YO — Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 22, 2022 I already told you what the real cost at the pump is all about, RINs, renewable offset blending credits, which are strangling small refiners. But in Europe the real story is beyond comprehension. It can be summed up in the following meme: And yet if you listen to Europe’s leadership what are they talking about? Expanding NATO to include Finland and Sweden. Backing Lithuania’s disastrous blockade of overland goods into Kaliningrad, in clear violation of that country’s treaty with Russia. The EU parliament and the leaders of France, Germany, and Italy all backing Ukraine’s invitation into the bloc. These are all to which Russia will correctly respond with shifting its exports East rather than West and put paid Putin’s words from his speech at SPIEF 2022 last week. “The European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else’s tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.” The whole speech is worth your time and the best highlight reel is this Twitter thread, not for what it implies for crypto, as the author implies, but for humanity in general. Debt is a slave’s system. It’s not real wealth, only the pretense of wealth. The big takeaway is exactly what I’ve been talking about on this blog for years: The end of sovereign debt as the basis for global reserves. The world will move, quickly, towards a commodity-backed monetary standard, where some form of discipline will be enforced on governments, who are torching their credibility by the day, because of reality. Real wealth is in things which sustain your life. Eventually physics and the limitations of time catch up with every central planner and their grand dreams of global domination. The tyranny they decry isn’t racism, a lack of tolerance or even tribalism, it is simply math and the physics of energy production. That is Putin’s big crime, reminding everyone of this basic fact. The narcissists who try to blame him for their woes will never admit they were wrong. They would rather continue manipulating events to steer the world towards the unthinkable blaming him and us for not bowing to their wisdom. Listen to them carefully and all you will hear is, “It’s not my fault!” But it is. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 02:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 27th, 2022Related News

DOJ Reaches Settlement With Facebook Parent Over Alleged Fair Housing Violation

A lawsuit claiming that Facebook’s parent company allegedly violated federal housing law appears to be nearing its close as the tech giant has agreed to change its advertising system per a proposed settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). The DOJ announced on June 21 that it reached a settlement agreement with Meta Platforms… The post DOJ Reaches Settlement With Facebook Parent Over Alleged Fair Housing Violation appeared first on RISMedia. A lawsuit claiming that Facebook’s parent company allegedly violated federal housing law appears to be nearing its close as the tech giant has agreed to change its advertising system per a proposed settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). The DOJ announced on June 21 that it reached a settlement agreement with Meta Platforms Inc. resolving allegations that the tech giant engaged in discriminatory advertising violating the Fair Housing Act (FHA). The settlement, which still needs federal court approval, calls for the company to stop using several ad targeting features that the DOJ claims discriminate against Facebook users based on their race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status and national origin. “As technology rapidly evolves, companies like Meta have a responsibility to ensure their algorithmic tools are not used in a discriminatory manner,” said Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division in a statement. The settlement comes after the Justice Department filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on June 21. The case takes issue with Facebook’s ad targeting tool known as “Lookalike Audience” or “Special Ad Audience.” According to the complaint, the tool uses a machine-learning algorithm to find Facebook users who share similarities with groups of individuals selected by an advertiser using several targeting options provided by Facebook. DOJ alleges that Facebook allowed its algorithm to consider FHA-protected characteristics, including race, religion and sex when finding Facebook users who “look like” the advertiser’s source audience and are eligible to receive housing ads. If the proposed settlement is approved, Meta is expected to stop using its tool for housing ads by December 31, 2022, which the DOJ claims rely on a discriminatory algorithm. By that time, Meta will also need to develop a new system for housing ads to address and mitigate the disparities in targeted advertising based on race, ethnicity and sex. Meta will also need to pay a fine of $115,054—the maximum penalty available under the Fair Housing Act. In a blog post that followed the DOJ’s announcement, Meta officials wrote that the settlement was a product of “more than a year of collaboration with HUD to develop a novel use of machine learning technology” that would make sure that the audience that ends up seeing a housing ad more closely reflects the eligible targeted audience for that ad. “We’re making this change in part to address feedback we’ve heard from civil rights groups, policymakers and regulators about how our ad system delivers certain categories of personalized ads, especially when it comes to fairness,” read an excerpt from the post. “So while HUD raised concerns about personalized housing ads specifically, we also plan to use this method for ads related to employment and credit. Discrimination in housing, employment and credit is a deep-rooted problem with a long history in the U.S., and we are committed to broadening opportunities for marginalized communities in these spaces and others.” The post DOJ Reaches Settlement With Facebook Parent Over Alleged Fair Housing Violation appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJun 27th, 2022Related News

The Asininity Of Inflation Expectations, Once Again By Powell & The Fed

The Asininity Of Inflation Expectations, Once Again By Powell & The Fed Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Jerome Powell and the St. Louis Fed are both concerned over inflation expectations. Let's investigate. What Do Financial Markets Say about Future Inflation? From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, please consider What Do Financial Markets Say about Future Inflation? by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett. The Importance of Inflation Expectation The effectiveness of monetary policy hinges critically on inflation expectations. If economic agents, such as households and firms, expect higher inflation in the future, the rational reaction is to purchase goods and services right away in order to avoid higher future prices. As a result, the demand for goods and services immediately rises and so does the price level, which results in higher inflation right away. Hence, the Federal Reserve needs to anchor economic agents’ long-term inflation expectations close to the inflation target in order to effectively combat inflation. This blog post looks at the recent movements in so-called market-based inflation expectations for various time horizons. .... Conclusion In short, according to the inflation swap data, market participants believe the Federal Reserve can and will control the high inflation rate, despite price increases being more persistent than previously thought. The well-anchored longer-term inflation expectation provides additional supporting evidence of this. I will rebut this nonsense again, but first let's consider another article on the alleged importance of inflation expectations.  The Strange Art of Asking People How Much Inflation They Expect Please consider The Strange Art of Asking People How Much Inflation They Expect “By about what percent do you expect prices to go up or down on the average, during the next 12 months?” The answers people give to this question—this exact question—produce one of the most important numbers for the U.S. economy. It’s the question the University of Michigan asks respondents to its Survey of Consumers. Because that survey is the longest-running such survey of consumer attitudes, dating back to 1946, its data about price increases have become the benchmark for economists who obsess over expectations of inflation. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed was raising interest rates by 0.75 percentage point, he cited an uptick in the responses people gave to the Michigan survey, saying, “It was quite eye-catching and we noticed that.” Crucial Variable Says Gregory Mankiw “Expected inflation is a crucial variable, but it’s probably one of the hardest of the crucial variables to measure,” said Harvard University economist Gregory Mankiw. The first quirk is that many people have only a vague idea of how much prices will rise, and tend to respond with large (sometimes implausibly large) round numbers: 5%, 10%, 15%, even 50%. In other words, people don’t gravitate toward a common assessment—they disagree sharply about how much inflation to expect, as Mr. Mankiw puts it. Second, partisanship colors people’s views. This is a well-known trend when assessing measures of consumer confidence: Democrats become extremely optimistic, and Republicans extremely pessimistic, the moment a Democratic president is elected. And vice versa. It has recently come to hang over inflation data, too. The question “by about what percent per year do you expect prices to go (up/down) on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?” is followed by a careful script to ensure that people are providing an estimate of annual increases, not cumulative. Richard Curtin, former head of the University of Michigan survey, says the tendency to gravitate toward large, round numbers is a genuine reflection of how people think.  He sees a bit of condescension from economists who are skeptical that consumers could have well-formed views about inflation. I Condemn the Surveys and the Economists  Q: Why? A: The premise is ridiculous.  Q: What premise? A: "If economic agents, such as households and firms, expect higher inflation in the future, the rational reaction is to purchase goods and services right away in order to avoid higher future prices." That actually seems logical and to a meaningless degree it can temporarily happen.  Gasoline Example Suppose a person thinks the price of gasoline will rise. That person then fills up his tank when it is half empty rather then three-quarters empty.  The person buys no more gas than he would otherwise, and perhaps even less by driving less. There is no place to store gas other the car.  Most people will not bother with the inconvenience of filling up twice as often to save a few cents, and it is meaningless if they do. No additional gas is purchased.  Toilet Paper Example Similarly, we have seen a rush on toilet paper on fears of supply, causing temporary shortages, but what then?  Does the price of toilet paper keep rising forever? Or after some number of roll hoarding does the situation self-correct? Medical Expense Example If consumers think the cost of a heart surgery will rise dramatically next year, will they rush out and have two of them now to avoid the price hike?  Clearly the answer is no. Rent Example Rent gets to the heart of the matter. It is over 31 percent of the CPI. What can consumers do about rising rent prices? Will they rush out and rent two houses if they expect an increase? No, they won't do that, but they might rush to buy a home. Alas, neither the Fed nor economists see home price inflation as inflation. Curiously, the rush to buy homes (asset prices in general) is the one place where expectations matter. But economists ignore that, focusing on what doesn't. Please consider Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?) by Jeremy B. Rudd at the Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board. Policy Errors Economists and economic policymakers believe that households’ and firms’ expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation. A review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this belief rests on extremely shaky foundations, and a case is made that adhering to it uncritically could easily lead to serious policy errors.   The study also debunked the highly touted Phillips Curve. Here are a few direct quotes. The direct evidence for an expected inflation channel was never very strong. It is an irony of history that, when Phelps and Friedman sought to justify their proposed theoretical specifications, they were faced with the uncomfortable fact that empirical Phillips curves appeared to be remarkably stable. These techniques are similar in spirit to those employed in the 1990s to estimate new-Keynesian models; hence, they suffer from the same sorts of problems—discussed below—that attend empirical estimates of those models. Friedman’s derivation of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve implies that the real product wage should be strongly countercyclical (recall that in this model firms are always assumed to be on their labor demand curves). In particular, Friedman states as a matter of fact that “. . . selling prices of products typically respond to an unanticipated rise in demand faster than prices of factors of production,” which would in turn imply the empirical prediction that the price Phillips curve is steeper than the wage Phillips curve. However, in U.S. data this prediction is completely at odds with the evidence. Most standard tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve suffer from such severe potential misspecification issues or such profound weak identification problems as to provide no evidence one way or the other regarding the importance of expectations (much the same statement applies to empirical tests that use survey measures of expected inflation). What little we know about firms’ price-setting behavior suggests that many tend to respond to cost increases only when they actually show up and are visible to their customers, rather than in a preemptive fashion.  Common Sense and Practical Examples Common sense and practical examples suggest that inflation expectations theory is ass backward. So much of the CPI is nondiscretionary that it's difficult to impossible for CPI expectations to matter.  Yet, economists focus on expectations that don't matter and ignore the expectations that do matter, namely asset prices! I have written about this several times previously, two of them before I even found the Fed study supporting my view.  Asset Irony People will rush to buy stocks in a bubble if they think prices will rise. They will hold off buying stocks if they expect prices will go down. People will buy houses to rent or fix up if they think home prices will rise. They will hold off housing speculation if they expect prices will drop. The very things where expectations do matter are the very things the Fed ignores. Hello Fed, Inflation Expectations Are Unglued, No Longer Well Anchored Inflation Expectations data from New York Fed, chart by Mish On April 11, I commented Hello Fed, Inflation Expectations Are Unglued, No Longer Well Anchored The New York Fed survey already shows inflation expectations are not anchored. Even the three-year median point projection is 4.88%, well over the Fed's target rate of 2.00%. Powell was shocked that the University of Michigan survey showed the same thing. I commented "It's a good thing that inflation expectations are a blatantly ridiculous concept. Even the Fed's own research papers make that conclusion." It's a good thing inflation expectations are not self-fulfilling because expectations are now unglued. Fed Studies Debunk the Phillips Curve Fed Study Shows Phillips Curve Is Useless Yet Another Fed Study Concludes Phillips Curve is Nonsense. Both studies were done by Fed staffers. Yet, Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell did not believe the Fed's own study. Stupidity Still Well Anchored You have to be trained to believe in nonsense and stick with it despite all evidence to the contrary.  Yet, Powell and the St. Louis Fed trust their disproved inflation expectations models. It has led to policy errors already and will lead to more of them. This is group think in action. There is no diversity of thought at the Fed. Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They? Regarding policy errors and the accurate warning by the Monetary Affairs Division of the Federal Reserve Board, please consider Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They? A BIS study concluded "Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive." Indeed, that must be the case as more goods for less money by default improves standards of living. The Fed was hell bent on reducing standards of living via inflation. Now they struggle to undo the inflation and asset bubble consequences they created.  The Fed is the problem, not the solution. *  *  * Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Tyler Durden Sun, 06/26/2022 - 17:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 26th, 2022Related News