Who Could Have Seen This Coming? All Over America, Blue Cities Are Facing A Severe Shortage Of Police Officers Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog, It turns out that we really do need the police after all.  Do you remember a few years ago when blue cities all over the nation wanted to defund the police?  Needless to say, that didn’t work out too well.  Wherever police budgets were slashed, crime rates shot up.  Today, we are in the midst of a massive crime wave that is sweeping the country.  In fact, it has gotten so bad that even many our most liberal politicians are desperate to restore law and order.  But that won’t be so easy, because after everything that has transpired blue cities are discovering that they are having a really difficult time finding enough warm bodies to serve in their crime-ridden communities. Just look at what is happening in Minneapolis.  Since the death of George Floyd, the number of officers serving in the MPD has fallen by about 35 percent… The Minneapolis Police Department is experiencing historically low staffing shortages, with ranks down approximately 35% since the death of George Floyd in 2020. According to a June report from the Department of Justice, the MPD had 892 sworn officers in 2018, but that number has since dropped to just 585. An officer told the DOJ that the police department’s morale “is at an all-time low.” Once upon a time, Minneapolis was one of the most beautiful cities in the country. But now it is a crime-infested hellhole, and at this point the city “has one of the lowest ratios of police officers to population” in the entire nation… Some days, the department has only four officers working a given precinct, the outlet reported. The MPD is often so understaffed that it does not have anyone available to work the station’s front desk. Minneapolis has one of the lowest ratios of police officers to population, with 1.4 officers per 1,000 residents, while the national average is 2.4. Similar things could be said about San Francisco. The “City by the Bay” is one of the epicenters of our rapidly growing national drug crisis, and they are having such a hard time finding police officers that they have decided to start recruiting in Texas… San Francisco is trying to recruit cops from Texas as it faces a shortage of officers, after businessman Marc Benioff slammed the city’s homeless and drug problems. The San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) is visiting four Texas university campuses throughout the month as part of a new recruitment drive. Candidates from outside of the state of California will take a written test, a physical ability test and an interview to see if they make they cut. Yes, things have really gotten this bad. Blue cities are having such difficulty hiring police officers that they must try to recruit them from red states. This month, the SFPD will be making recruiting trips to four different Texas universities… Texas Southern University in Houston; Sam Houston State University in Huntsville; Prairie View A&M University; and Texas A&M University Corpus Christi. If you always dreamed of serving as a police officer in a lawless city with hordes of drug addicts, this is your chance. In Prince George’s County just outside of Washington D.C., authorities have decided to search for hundreds of new recruits in Puerto Rico because the shortage of police officers has become so severe… Officer shortages are so dire in the Washington, D.C., area that one county police department is planning to send officials to Puerto Rico in an attempt to bring back hundreds of new recruits, the department announced Monday. Law enforcement officials in Maryland’s Prince George’s County, which borders D.C., told the city’s Fox affiliate that they plan to travel to the Caribbean island “soon” in an attempt to hire the roughly 350 officers they need to achieve a full staff. In addition to the tropical recruitment trip, the county’s police department is targeting Hispanic communities at parades and other events across the country and running ads in Spanish. At least they are still trying. Other communities seem to have given up completely. In Seattle, citizens are being instructed to “give up their car keys” and to give criminals “whatever they’re looking for” when they inevitably encounter violent thugs… The best thing to do if you are ever confronted by criminals while in Seattle is to simply give them “whatever they’re looking for,” according to King County Sheriff David Robinson. Instead of trying to fight criminals when they attempt to, say, steal your car, Robinson suggests that residents and visitors of Seattle “give up their car keys” and avoid provoking these robbers and thieves. “Give the criminals what they want,” Robinson told Seattleites about how to live in their city, which is currently facing the highest violent crime rate in 15 years. I have been to downtown Seattle, and I don’t plan on going back any time soon. Of course these days you can literally be robbed anywhere. On Sunday, a wealthy man in Connecticut was actually carjacked inside his own garage… A Connecticut man pulled his Aston Martin convertible into his garage Sunday and encountered two masked men who attacked him and stole the vehicle in a brazen broad daylight carjacking captured on home security video. “Get out, get out,” a masked man can be heard telling the victim as he sits in his own Bayberry Lane garage in an exchange captured by a Ring camera in the corner of the room. A second man opens the passenger door and then rifles around inside another luxury car parked to the side. Driving an expensive vehicle can be fun. But in our current social environment, it makes you a target. It appears that those two criminals followed that man home. Sadly, this sort of crime is rapidly rising all over the nation. So from this point forward, make sure that nobody is following you when you are headed back to where you live. If you do suspect that you are being followed, pull into a gas station, but don’t get out. Circle around and watch to see if the vehicle that was potentially tailing you follows suit.  If you are still being followed at that point, call the police and head toward the nearest police station.  Only really stupid criminals will follow you there. I wish that we did not have to constantly be on guard like this, but it is imperative to understand that our society has been fundamentally transformed. Lawlessness reigns in major cities all over the United States, and I fully expect violent crime to get even worse during the years ahead of us. *  *  * Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 21:40.....»»

Despite experiencing record sales during much of the first half of the year, electric vehicles (EVs) are now being pulled ... Read more Despite experiencing record sales during much of the first half of the year, electric vehicles (EVs) are now being pulled to the center of the political debate, as the run-up to the 2024 presidential election begins to intensify. During the second quarter of the year, a record-shattering 300,000 fully electric battery-operated vehicles hit American roads, according to Cox Automotive, a global automotive and systems technology company. The quarterly sales represented a 48.4% increase compared to the second quarter of last year, and the highest of any other period. However, new presidential hopefuls in the GOP are now slamming the Biden-Harris Administration's EV transition plans, as some have promised to reverse existing EV subsidies, slash America’s carbon-neutral goals, and further reduce congressional attention aimed at creating more environmental-forward policies. The Race To De-Electrify America’s Automotive Industry For quite some time already, there has been significant transformation taking place in the automotive industry, as numerous legacy car manufacturers have thrown their weight behind the widespread electrification of new vehicle lineups. More than this, the Federal government, with President Biden at the helm, has introduced a series of new policy changes in recent years in support of more robust electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. The most significant perhaps, was the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which changed existing tax credits and subsidies for EV buyers and manufacturers. However, now that the Republic presidential campaign has taken off in full swing, with former President Trump leading the polls, despite facing a flurry of allegations, many republican candidates are not as supportive of meeting Biden’s EV and carbon-emission targets. The most recent Republican presidential contender to speak out against America’s electric car transition was Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis. Speaking at an event in Midland, Texas, considered to be the heart of oil country, DeSantis pledged that he would not only slow the EV transition but further withdraw the U.S. from existing environmental agreements, Reuters reported. DeSantis isn’t the first to make such remarks. The former South Carolina Governor, Nikki Haley, who is currently backed by 6% of the Republican party has also slammed existing EV subsidies. During the first republican debate, Haley said that while she believes that climate change is a real threat, voters must look towards China and India to reduce their carbon emissions if they want to see real environmental change. She further went on to state that Biden’s new climate policies have helped put more money into China’s pockets, only further adding to the current environmental crisis. Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s currently in third place on the polls, behind DeSantis, and ahead of Haley, made his position on EV subsidies clear earlier in the year when he Tweeted, “End electric vehicle subsidies. If consumers want EVs, they’ll be fine without the subsidies. And if not, that means people don’t want EVs. It’s not too complicated.” Ramaswamy is currently the youngest republican candidate and is building his campaign in an attempt to capture younger republican voters, combatting the “woke” agenda, and further exposing corruption in the government. Where’s Trump on all of this? Well, the former president has taken a somewhat backseat during most recent Republican debates, missing not only the first debate in August, but is also planning to skip the upcoming debate which will be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, in Simi Valley, California scheduled for later in September. Instead, Trump is planning to travel to Detroit, hoping to deliver a speech to current and former union members. This comes as thousands of United Auto Workers (UAW) have downed their tools, and have gone on strike as a deal between carmakers and UAW has yet to be reached. A Blue And Red Tug And Pull For EVs It’s not only Republicans who have felt America’s strategy to become a global leader in EV production and see more battery-powered cars on the road has gone according to plan. In a statement by Jon Reinish, a Democratic Strategist last year, he says that despite the government’s efforts to combat climate change and bring to light the importance of progressive environmental policies, there’s still a lot the Democrats can do to make EVs more accessible. “This sort of elitism problem is real because these things are very high priced right now, so Democrats should also be creating some sort of an environment through many different channels to make these much more accessible,” Reinish told The Hill. However, it’s important to consider that Reinish was largely commenting on the state of the economy at the time, when consumers were seeing prices soaring, and inflation was at a 40-year high. While there has been a significant increase in new EV sales across the U.S. in recent years, many existing models continue to outprice motorists. The most affordable model currently on the market is the 2023 Chevrolet Bolt EV, with a sticker price of $19,995, and only offers a range of 259 miles. Even Tesla remains relatively pricey, considering the company recently embarked on a price war with legacy automakers. Currently, the most affordable of Tesla’s is the Model 3, priced at $40,420, and includes nearly zero upgrades. The EV has an estimated mileage of 333 miles per full charge. Higher prices for newer, and used electric cars aren’t the only thing that’s hampering motorists' optimism.  A lack of adequate charging infrastructure in some cities across the country has also led to slower adoption. “Perhaps the problem isn’t necessarily how politicians are feeling about widespread electrification, but rather the tight economic conditions many consumers are experiencing at the moment,” says Matthew Hart, founder of Axlewise, an automotive support and information blog. Despite inflation reluctantly trending downwards, countless consumers have had to tighten their purse strings in recent months as the cost of living continues to take a bigger bite out of consumer’s disposable income. In a Gallup poll from earlier this year, nearly 41% of surveyed U.S. adults said that they would not buy a new electric car. Extrapolated on a bigger spectrum, this would represent nearly 106 million Americans who are currently against Biden’s plans to create a greener and more efficient economy. The majority of those opposed to the idea of buying an electric vehicle - 71% - identified as Republicans, while only 17% identified as Democrats according to the Gallup poll. America’s idea of building a green economy, through rapid auto electrification, might soon become a pipeline dream, as new presidential hopefuls look to take a more aggressive stance at wiping Biden’s Green Plans out the door. This leaves many to wonder how these events will unfold once there’s a new leader in The White House, and what this could mean for the global effort against climate change......»»

RatesHigher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com)Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com)Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com)Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com)Dumb MoneyThere are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com)The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever. (institutionalinvestor.com)Does 'Dumb Money' get the finance right? (ft.com)Cardi B’s 2020 hit “WAP” plays a big role in 'Dumb Money.' (variety.com)StreamingThe battle over live sports will define the streaming wars. (wired.com)Is Apple's ($AAPL) MLS deal the future of sports broadcasting? (gq.com)Max is adding a soon to be paid, live sports tier. (theverge.com)Venture capitalAnother big VC firm, GV Capital, is separating its China business. (theinformation.com)Best practices for winding down a startup. (hunterwalk.com)UkraineUkraine is relying heavily on small, cheap drones against Russia. (nytimes.com)Ukraine has mastered the art of building decoy weapons. (ft.com)EconomyThe Fed doesn't know more than anyone else where the economy is going. (ritholtz.com)The housing market is hopelessly bifurcated. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsPodcast links: the crypto crash. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Longform links: embracing mediocrity. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaEver more complex drinks mean Starbucks ($SBUX) is struggling with wait times. (bloomberg.com)The long tail took a hit with the shutdown of Netflix's ($NFLX) DVD business. (slate.com)How the internet 'swallowed up' Google ($GOOGL) Search. (theatlantic.com).....»»

Unity Software Inc. U apologized Friday to game developers for not speaking with them more before it announced new fees recently. Earlier in the week, Unity shares fell as the company said it was “listening” to the backlash from game developers, after several switched off Unity’s ad-monetization, and would be making changes to per-download developer fees announced the week previous. “Our Unity Personal plan will remain free and there will be no Runtime Fee for games built on Unity Personal,” the company said in an open letter posted on the company’s blog. “We will be increasing the cap from $100,000 to $200,000 and we will remove the requirement to use the Made with Unity splash screen. No game with less than $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue will be subject to the fee.”Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman Sees U.S. Long-Term Rates Rising (Reuters) Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he believed 30-year interest rates would rise further, while his Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund remains short on bonds, as he sees inflation remaining stubbornly high. His comments came after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady […] Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman Sees U.S. Long-Term Rates Rising (Reuters) Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he believed 30-year interest rates would rise further, while his Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund remains short on bonds, as he sees inflation remaining stubbornly high. His comments came after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but stiffened a hawkish monetary policy stance that its officials increasingly believe can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. Hedge Funds Need to Plan for Failure, LTCM Founder Says (Bloomberg) Twenty-five years is a long time to think about the consequences of your involvement in one of Wall Street’s most infamous bailouts. Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management, has come to believe that a better understanding of his personal risk would’ve helped the hedge fund balance its own dangers. “I was pretty young at the time when I was a founder. I was 31 years old and had just come out of Salomon Brothers,” he says. “I just was not thinking much about my own personal financial decisions.” Former DMGT chief in talks to aid Marshall bid for Telegraph (Sky News) Paul Zwillenberg, who stepped down as CEO of the Daily Mail publisher a year ago, is in talks to work with the hedge fund tycoon on an offer for the broadsheet newspapers, Sky News learns. A former chief executive of the Daily Mail’s publisher is being courted to work with bidders for its broadsheet rival, The Daily Telegraph. Sky News has learnt that Paul Zwillenberg, who stepped down as Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT) chief last September, has held talks with Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund tycoon, about his interest in the newspaper. Rawpixel / shutterstock.com BlueCrest – The Upper Tribunal Considers The Salaried Member Rules (NatLawReview.com) The Upper Tribunal (UT) has upheld the decision of the First‑tier Tribunal (FTT) regarding the application of the UK’s salaried member rules (the Rules) to certain members of BlueCrest Capital Management (UK) LLP (BlueCrest), an asset manager engaged in the provision of hedge fund management services. We previously reported on the FTT decision in June 2022. A high‑level summary of the relevant aspects of the Rules, which can treat certain limited liability partnership (LLP) members as employees, and the FTT’s decision is set out below. For more information on this decision and for further background on the Rules, please refer to our Tax Talks blog post from last year. Hedge Fund Manager Revises Strategy Due to Robust Oil Market (Investing.com) James Jampel, founder of Massachusetts-based HITE Hedge Asset Management, announced on Thursday that his previous strategy of shorting fossil fuel stocks is no longer viable due to the strong surge in oil prices. The hedge fund manager, known for his successful track record in shorting fossil fuel stocks, now acknowledges the considerable strength of the oil market. Jampel’s shift in investment strategy is primarily due to the intricate geopolitical landscape surrounding oil. This complexity has made it increasingly challenging to maintain a strategy of shorting fossil fuel companies – an investment tactic that generates profit when stock prices fall......»»

A lead magnet can entice people to connect with your business, allowing you to deepen relationships and turn them into clients or customers. Ashley Louise, left, a cofounder and the CEO of Ladies Get Paid, and Jenn Robbins, the founder of The Flexible Funnel Studio.KT Gifting a product or service in exchange for contact information can help engage new customers. Known as a lead magnet, the gift should be tied to the value your company offers. Develop and market a lead magnet like any other product or service. This article is part of "Marketing for Small Business," a series exploring the basics of marketing strategy for SBOs to earn new customers and grow their business. Lead magnets are a critical tool for growing a thriving email- or text-marketing list and getting customers into a sales funnel.A lead magnet is a gift that a business offers people in exchange for their contact information, such as a free course download or a one-time discount."More than ever, lead magnets are important because people are a little stingier with their email addresses," Jenn Robbins, founder of The Flexible Funnel Studio, a digital-marketing agency, told Insider.Given how easily we can get inundated with emails these days, a high-value lead magnet can entice people to connect with your business, allowing you to deepen the relationships and turn them into clients or customers. Best of all, you don't have to be a marketing expert to see results.Ashley Louise, a cofounder and the CEO of Ladies Get Paid, an online platform that offers paid courses on career advancement and money management for women, started experimenting with lead magnets last year. In the past year, more than 8,500 prospective customers have downloaded her free e-books and printouts."The best thing about these assets is that they have a long tail distribution, meaning they continue to be found and shared, increasing our surface area for acquiring new email addresses," Louise said. Insider spoke with small-business owners about what they'd learned about making a lead magnet successful. Give a peek at the value your company offersRobbins said a good lead magnet achieved two things: It gives the customer a taste of the value your company offers, and it relates directly to something you're trying to sell. In other words, it's not about baiting people into your company's orbit to boost your email list. "If your lead magnet doesn't specifically tie to something you offer, then you're going to lose people along the way," Robbins said. "It doesn't matter if people have an email list of 30,000 people — if nobody's buying, then everybody's wasting their time." For example, Robbins worked with a farmer whose lead magnet was a recipe book, which enticed people to buy the company's products featured in the recipes. When brainstorming ideas for lead magnets, Louise considers what made her opt in to other companies' lead magnets. Often, she'll Google a question and download a resource that promised a solution.She said to ask yourself: "What is the very specific problem that someone would use this lead magnet to solve — and then you need to deliver them the exact solution." She added that she often looked to her membership community for inspiration.This approach led to her company's most popular lead magnet to date: a beginner's guide for ChatGPT, which had 5,000 views on its landing page within two weeks of launching.Use your established marketing channels When you promote a lead magnet, it's best to treat it like any other product or service you're selling."You're not asking them for money, but you're asking them for their time and their email address," Robbins said. Distribute your lead magnet via the channels that are effective for your other marketing efforts, such as social media, podcasts, online advertising, or linking to your lead magnet in blog posts or articles.Then, make sure you're pointing people to a strong landing page — not just asking them to "download my freebie" with no context. Instead, Robbins said, explain what the free item is, what's included, what the person can get out of it, plus who you are as a business owner and why you're the right person or company to offer this solution.Follow up quicklyFollow up within a week of a new sign-up, Robbins said, with a welcome sequence of five to seven emails that further introduce your work; share more resources, such as a blog post or podcast; and suggest a call to action to keep them engaged. Open rates tend to be highest in the first email sequence, she said.Lead magnets can also be an effective tool for segmenting and reengaging existing email subscribers, Louise said. When she sent a free course to her email list on how to use ChatGPT in a job search, an automated follow-up email went to those who downloaded the course, touting other job-search products available at Ladies Get Paid."That was a way for me to identify people who are not just readers, but they're engagers," Louise said. "Those are the people who are more likely to buy our products."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

"This feature needs to be changed. Not marketed," wrote a WSJ reporter who was part of an investigation into the matter. A screenshot of Apple Support's video on how to reset your Apple ID. The feature has been used by iPhone thieves, The Wall Street Journal found in an investigation; a victim of the scheme also talked to Insider.AppleApple is marketing a security feature after the WSJ revealed it can be used by iPhone thieves.Thieves have reportedly taken up to $10,000 through iPhones by using the Apple ID reset feature. One victim of the iPhone theft scheme said that Apple wasn't helpful in addressing the issue.Thieves have reportedly taken thousands of dollars through iPhones they've stolen — yet Apple is marketing a feature that may be making it easier for criminals to do just that.Earlier this week, Apple made a post on X, previously known as Twitter, that included a short video on how Apple users can change the passwords to their Apple ID accounts."Can't remember your Apple ID password? It's easy to reset right on your iPhone or iPad. Here's how," the post said."It comes just months after a Wall Street Journal investigation revealed that the feature has been used by thieves to lock users out of their accounts for nefarious purposes.In response to Apple's post on X, Joanna Stern — who was one of the Journal's reporters involved in the investigation — expressed her frustrations over the tech giant promoting the feature."I absolutely cannot believe Apple is marketing this as a feature," Stern wrote on X. "This feature needs to be changed. Not marketed."According to the WSJ's investigation, thieves go to places like bars and watch potential victims enter their passcodes to unlock their iPhones. After that, the thieves can swiftly steal their target's iPhone and use the passcode to change the phone's Apple ID password. That way, victims are logged out of their iCloud accounts.In turn, the thieves can disable the "Find my iPhone" feature, sign out of trusted Apple devices like Mac Books and iPads, and change a trusted phone number, the WSJ reported.By locking users out of their iPhones, thieves have reportedly stolen up to $10,000 from users' bank accounts — either directly or through third-party cash transfer apps like Venmo and Zelle.In response to Stern's post, John Gruber, a popular tech blogger, chimed in with his own thoughts on Apple's marketing. While Gruber said he wasn't surprised that Apple continues to promote the feature — he claimed "a lot of people wind up using this" — he said he found it hard to believe that Apple doesn't seem to be taking the necessary measures to make it safer."Harder to believe is they don't offer a way to disable it, or that using the feature doesn't have a waiting period or something, to mitigate the abuse you've documented by thieves," Gruber wrote.Stern's assertion that Apple hasn't done much to address the vulnerability may ring true for some victims of the iPhone theft scheme.Reyhan Ayas, a New York-based economist who got her iPhone stolen last November, previously told Insider that Apple's support team "was not helpful at all" when she tried to regain access to her iCloud account.Even though Ayas said she got locked out of using her MacBook laptop and was the victim of the thief stealing thousands of dollars from her bank account — and even of the thief opening an Apple credit card under her name — Apple kept asking "have you tried Find my iPhone?" when she sought assistance, she said."Of course, I tried it like minute three, I tried it," Ayas told Insider in reference to the "Find my iPhone" feature. "Like, this is a joke to you. My entire life is a shambles, yet you're still asking if I tried it."Still, it appears as though Apple hasn't taken the feature's vulnerability that seriously. When reached for comment, Apple told the Journal that while the company extends sympathy to victims, incidents of iPhone theft enabled by the feature are uncommon since they require stealing the device and its passcode."Security researchers agree that iPhone is the most secure consumer mobile device, and we work tirelessly every day to protect all our users from new and emerging threats," an Apple spokeswoman told the Journal.Apple, Stern, and Gruber didn't immediately respond to Insider's request for comment for this story.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Several major universities have stopped using AI detection tools provided by anti-plagiarism company Turnitin over fears that the technology could lead to students being falsely accused of cheating. Educators have been struggling to get a grips with the rise of generative AI tools such as ChatGPTFrank Rumpenhorst/picture alliance via Getty ImagesSeveral major universities say they have stopped using AI detection tools over accuracy concerns.They say that tools built to spot essays written by AI could lead to students being falsely accused of cheating.OpenAI has warned that there is no reliable way for educators to work out if students are using ChatGPT.Universities are going back to the drawing board to figure out how to stop their students using ChatGPT to write essays, after giving up on AI detectors over accuracy concerns.Several major universities have stopped using AI detection tools provided by anti-plagiarism company Turnitin over fears that the technology could lead to students being falsely accused of cheating, according to a report from Bloomberg.The decisions come despite the soaring popularity of ChatGPT with students and the increasing concerns among educators that it is fueling a cheating epidemic."After several months of using and testing this tool, meeting with Turnitin and other AI leaders, and talking to other universities who also have access, Vanderbilt has decided to disable Turnitin's AI detection tool for the foreseeable future," Vanderbilt University said in a blog post published in August.The university said that the detection tool had a 1% false positive rate at launch, which it estimates would have led to around 750 of the 75,000 papers it submitted to Turnitin last year being incorrectly labeled as written with AI.Northwestern University also said in a post on its website that it was turning Turnitin's AI detector off after a series of consultations, and that the university did not recommend using it to check student's work.Art Markman, vice provost for academic affairs at the University of Texas, told Bloomberg that his university had stopped using the tool over accuracy concerns."If we felt they were accurate enough, then having these tools would be great," he said. "But we don't want to create a situation where students are falsely accused."Educators have been experimenting with ways to deal with the popularity of generative AI tools like ChatGPT among students, with mixed results. A Texas professor came under fire for failing half his class after ChatGPT incorrectly identified their essays as written by AI. Other students have reported being falsely accused of using AI by anti-plagiarism software.Working out when text has been written by AI is notoriously difficult. ChatGPT's creator OpenAI scrapped its own AI text detector tool due to "low rates of accuracy", and warned educators that AI content detectors are not reliable in its recent back-to-school guide.The company confirmed that many detector tools had a tendency to incorrectly identify work written by non-English authors as AI-generated, something Vanderbilt identified as a concern.Turnitin said in a statement to Bloomberg that its AI detection software is not designed to be used to punish students. "Turnitin's technology is not meant to replace educators' professional discretion," the company's Chief Product Officer Annie Chechitelli told Bloomberg.Turnitin did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider, made outside normal US working hours.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Amazon.com Inc. AMZN said Friday it will add limited advertising to its Prime Video product starting in early 2024. The company said the move is aimed at enabling it to continue investing in “compelling content.” “We aim to have meaningfully fewer ads than linear TV and other streaming TV providers,” the company said in a blog post. Ads will be introduced in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Canada in early 2024, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Mexico, and Australia later in the year. U.S. consumers can pay an extra $2.99 a month to remain ad-free, while consumers in other countries will have that option at a later date. Prime Video has earned 68 Primetime Emmy award nominations this year, while “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” has been the most-nominated streaming comedy ever with 80 nominations over a five-season run. Amazon’s stock was up 1.2% premarket and has gained 54% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX has gained 12.8%. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Facebook just updated its logo to a design it says is "bolder, electric, and everlasting." How Facebook's logo has changed over time.Meta Facebook just updated its logo to a design it says is "bolder, electric, and everlasting." Parent Meta dedicated 1,600 words to announcing this and other subtle changes in a blog post on Wednesday. I think it's going to take more than a deeper shade of blue to reverse Facebook's dwindling appeal in its home market. Meta unveiled a refreshed logo for Facebook on Wednesday, and it is blink-and-you'd-miss-it subtle: it's now a slightly deeper shade of blue.The company described the new design as "bolder, electric, and everlasting," as part of a 1,600 blog post announcing this and other incremental design changes.Looking at the new logo, I can't help but ask: is the "bolder" design in the room with us right now?The company also announced in the same post that it is updating its emoji reactions to "evoke more dimensionality and emotion," and said it was rolling out a new dynamic color range featuring light blue, sky blue, navy, dark navy, and blue.If you think the change seems less like radical innovation and more like much ado about nothing, you're not alone.Users on X are already poking fun at the change, and comparing it to other incredibly subtle updates. —໊ (@buffys) September 20, 2023 To be sure, Facebook's logo change marks a stark contrast to other moves, like Twitter's controversial rebrand to X — or its parent company's rebrand from Facebook to Meta in 2021, amid deep public backlash against the company.But I can't help but wonder if the subtle and incremental change is a sign of Facebook's waning relevance.A 2022 study by the Pew Research Center highlighted Facebook's dwindling appeal among US teens since 2014 — who are flocking to platforms like TikTok, Snapchat, and sister app, Instagram. And though Facebook said in its last quarterly earnings call that around 40% of the world's population — or around three billion people — uses the platform every month, its growth in monthly active users appears to be plateauing.In the second quarter of the year, the company gained only a million monthly active users in the US and Canada, while it lost 2 million in Europe, per the earnings presentation.Personally, I think it's probably going to take more than a deeper shade of blue to reverse the trend.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Planet Fitness CEO Chris Rondeau was fired after a decade at the helm and replaced by ex-NH Gov. Craig Benson. The gym's stock price fell by 20%. Chris Rondeau, the former CEO of Planet Fitness.Bernard Weil/Toronto Star via Getty ImagesPlanet Fitness' board of directors asked its CEO Chris Rondeau to step down last week.Shares tumbled nearly 20% following the news.Rondeau told Insider he was "blindsided" by the board's decision.Former Planet Fitness CEO Chris Rondeau told Insider he doesn't know why the company's board of directors asked him to resign last week, a move that sent Planet Fitness shares tumbling nearly 20%, shaving over $1 billion in market cap — from $5.2 billion to $4 billion — off the US's largest network of gyms in less than a week. Rondeau told Insider he was "seriously blindsided" by the board's decision to remove him as CEO but declined to answer additional questions about his termination, citing a confidentiality clause in his separation agreement. Rondeau remains on the company's board of directors."I wasn't finished," he told Insider in a text message. "I had the best team best franchisees and an amazing business."Know more about Planet Fitness? Contact reporter Katherine Long via encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-206-375-9280) or email (klong@businessinsider.com), or reporter Jack Newsham via Signal (+1-314-971-1627) or email (jnewsham@insider.com). Use a non-work device.Rondeau's separation agreement bars him from contacting any Planet Fitness employees except those in the legal or human-resources divisions "about your employment or the end of your employment with the Company." A separate non-solicitation clause blocks him from trying to recruit his former employees for new ventures.A Planet Fitness spokesperson did not respond to questions about Rondeau's departure. Previously, the company had directed inquiries to a press release noting that the "management change is not the result of any material or unexpected financial events."Still, Rondeau's ouster has generated a flood of price-target reductions from Wall Street analysts. Jefferies, JP Morgan, and other analysts have downgraded the stock because of concerns over Planet Fitness' executive transition.The low-cost, low-frills gym saw same-store sales rise nearly 9% last quarter, according to its most recent earnings report. But because of inflation, the cost of opening a new franchise has risen nearly 25%, leading some analysts to question whether Planet Fitness might consider increasing the price of its $10-a-month basic membership.On a quarterly earnings call last month, Rondeau said ditching the $10-a-month membership might "cheapen the brand," adding that the company was trying to convince customers to upgrade to pricier membership tiers.Rondeau has been a fixture at Planet Fitness since the gym's founding. He started working at the front desk of the company's first location in New Hampshire in 1993 and was named CEO in 2013.But his tenure hasn't been without blemishes.In 2018, a former Planet Fitness employee alleged in a hostile-workplace lawsuit that Rondeau and another executive had sexual relationships with subordinates. The former employee, Casey Willard, called Planet Fitness a "debaucherous" workplace. Drinking on the job was encouraged, Willard said in the suit, at events like "Fireball Fridays" and "Beers with Peers" that sometimes started before 8:30 a.m. In her suit, Willard said she was drugged and raped by a manager on a work trip and then pressured into a relationship with her boss.The suit was settled in 2021 for undisclosed terms.Rondeau, in a text message to Insider, said that he never had an inappropriate relationship with an employee, "absolutely not on my kid's life." In court papers, Planet Fitness denied most of Willard's claims, including those about Rondeau.Rondeau's contributions to conservative politicians, including Donald Trump, attracted negative media attention in 2019. Rondeau gave just over $1,200 to Trump and another $1,000 to the congressional campaign of a former New Hampshire state senator.Earlier this year, an investing newsletter said the gym could be violating consumer-protection laws by making it purposefully difficult to cancel memberships. Though Planet Fitness' often-frustrating billing practices are common knowledge — the company has an "F" rating from the Better Business Bureau — the information in the blog posts was cited by law firms after Rondeau's ouster as a potential basis for shareholder suits against the company.The lack of information about Rondeau's firing has allowed rumors to proliferate. On X, formerly Twitter, Planet Fitness cofounder Mike Grondahl claimed that the board of directors has "been corrupt from day 1" and that the company's former general counsel was a "pedophile." Grondahl declined to speak on the record.Planet Fitness appointed Craig Benson, a board member and a former governor of New Hampshire, as interim CEO while the company looks for a new chief executive.Know more about Planet Fitness? Contact reporter Katherine Long via encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-206-375-9280) or email (klong@businessinsider.com), or reporter Jack Newsham via Signal (+1-314-971-1627) or email (jnewsham@insider.com). Use a non-work device.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Globalism Is The Real Pandemic Authored by Martin Enlund via Under Orion blog, TL;DR: Contrary to their stated goals, centralized solutions and globalism are poised to increase disaster risk, undermine knowledge production, impede economic growth, and hinder scientific progress. They should also be rejected on ethical grounds. The drawbacks of extensive centralization (globalism) have been discussed previously, including the fact that it empowers the wrong individuals. However, as proponents of global centralization continue to advance their positions - see e.g. the discussions around the WHO’s new pandemic treaty, it is high time to remind ourselves of more of the downsides associated with centralization. In this text, I present three additional reasons why the idea of large-scale and centralized solutions should be rejected. They increase the risk of disasters, undermine knowledge production and economic development, and should also be dismissed on ethical grounds. Risk of Catastrophes A society constitutes a complex system. Complex systems exhibit properties that emerge due to dependencies and interactions among their parts. This makes it impossible to understand the whole by merely examining its parts. Butterfly effects are a consequence - a small event can have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences. Such a system can be likened to a tangle of blackberry bushes. Everything is intertwined with everything else, and the only certainty is that you will encounter unintended consequences when you try to reach the berries. These consequences are often painful. Given that today’s experts treat society as if it were a complicated system rather than a complex one, it’s not surprising that they are often taken aback by unintended consequences, such as the recent years’ inflation. In complex systems, solutions cannot be calculated; instead, one must experiment on a small scale. Even if small-scale experiments yield positive results, it may not be prudent to expand them. It can also be argued that centralization is a necessary condition for catastrophes to occur. The consequences of experimenting on a large scale are well illustrated by China’s Great Leap Forward, where an estimated 30 million people perished due to famine. Fewer would have died if China had engaged in small-scale experiments first. However, this is what centrally planned and large-scale “solutions” prevent. Rather than consolidating more power into organizations like the UN, EU, or WHO, it is wiser not to put all our eggs in one basket. Undermined Knowledge Production and Economic Stagnation Large-scale centralization “one size fits all”-solutions, has significant implications for knowledge production worldwide and in the business sector. After all, insights into the nature of things don’t originate in spreadsheets; they emerge when hypotheses are tested in reality, and one observes the results. The more hypotheses that can be tested, the more knowledge will be generated. Centralized large-scale systems test fewer hypotheses and, as a result, will experience stagnation in terms of knowledge compared to decentralized systems. Since economic development relies on human ingenuity, centralization will lead to lower sustainable growth, possibly outright stagnation. Biologists recognize that small groups in isolation undergo rapid evolution, and the same concept applies in this context. Furthermore, when all individuals or groups are subjected to identical rules, the existence of control groups is eliminated. Without control groups, it becomes impossible to make scientifically valid claims about efficiency or causality. Consequently, centralization undermines the foundation of science. “Socialism primarily means keeping track of everything,” said Lenin, and he is likely correct. However, it’s unfortunate for him and other central planning bureaucrats that it’s just not feasible. The information required for successful planning is dispersed and cannot be collected by either a planning committee or an AI. Believing otherwise indicates a lack of understanding of the local knowledge problem. In the business world, decentralization is widely recognized as a potent force. Large corporations resist change and stagnate, making them less competitive than smaller counterparts when it comes to exploring new niches and markets through small-scale experiments. This observation applies to governmental, supranational, and global organizations as well. Is Unethical The principle of subsidiarity is an ethical guideline originating from the Catholic Church, which suggests that decisions should be made at the most appropriate and lowest level of authority. The Church’s interest lies not in disaster risk, knowledge production, or economics but in the souls of individuals. Rerum Novarum, issued in 1891 by Pope Leo XIII, addressed the social conflicts arising in the wake of the industrial revolution. The Catholic Church took a stand in favor of subsidiarity based on reasons related to community, dignity, justice, and self-governance. 40 years later, Pope Pius XI issued Quadragesimo Anno, in which he described the significant dangers to human freedom and dignity arising from unbridled capitalism, socialism, and communism. Pius spoke out against a few individuals controlling financial forces and advocated for the principle of subsidiarity. It would be intriguing to know what these popes would say about the ongoing globalist Fourth Industrial Revolution. For the countries that formed the Coal and Steel Union, which later evolved into the EU, subsidiarity was of utmost importance. Today, this principle seems to have vanished. Instead of respecting the uniqueness of nations, higher-level entities instead engage in bullying. Let’s Aim for a New Renaissance Instead Rather than centralization, globalization, and large-scale control, we should strive for the exact opposite. Complexity research indicates that when a system finds the “critical point” between order and chaos, it exhibits remarkable qualities of adaptability, innovation, and disturbance management. Isn’t it precisely such a balance we should seek as a society, as a world? A return to more decentralized systems would reduce disaster risks, promote stronger economic development, and, according to the Church, create a more decent and ethical society. “Woe to you, teachers of the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You shut the door of the kingdom of heaven in people’s faces. You yourselves do not enter, nor will you let those enter who are trying to.” Matthew 23:2-18. As for heaven, my knowledge is limited, but I am starting to suspect that it’s the proponents of centralization and their many foot soldiers who are blocking our path towards a new renaissance. *  *  * If you wish to subscribe, sign up here! Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 17:00.....»»

MarketsThe credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com)Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com)IPOsShopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com)Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com)BooksA review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White. (economist.com)The six finalists for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award include "Right Kind of Wrong: Why Learning to Fail Can Teach Us to Thrive" by Amy Edmondson. (ft.com)AppleWhy Apple ($AAPL) has failed to build its own modem chip. (wsj.com)The iPhone 15 Max upgrade was low-key, but may be worthwhile. (daringfireball.net)Some new of Apple's ($AAPL) multi-platform features. (sixcolors.com)Why the AirPods Pro 2 are way better the original version. (daringfireball.net)What's new in iOS 17. (arstechnica.com)AirbnbHow Airbnb ($ABNB) is trying to improve the user experience. (axios.com)How Airbnb ($ABNB) has cut down on the number of prohibited parties. (cnbc.com)Fund managementDon't get too excited about any recent outperformance by active managers. (ft.com)Morningstar ($MORN) is cutting jobs in its Sustainalytics unit. (etf.com)EconomyThe Fed has hiked 11 of the last 13 meetings. (thebasispoint.com)Despite lower initial unemployment claims the unemployment rate is still set to tick higher. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsLongform links: embracing mediocrity. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Wednesday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Personal finance links: the need to impress. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaA real-world example of how AI can disrupt traditional search. (etftrends.com)Doctors are coming to terms with the capabilities of 'Dr. ChatGPT.' (npr.org)On the irony of automation. (drorpoleg.com).....»»

The New Narrative Authored by Raul Ilragi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, A short comment on an all too familiar sort of MSM article about US politics these days. This article, a few days old, comes from Gary O’Donoghue, Washington correspondent, BBC News. The MSM must concede that Hunter Biden is under investigation. Now that it’s official, they can no longer hide it. Time for plan B. This is the BBC, more MSM than anyone. The new narrative is that both political sides are being probed now, supposed to make us think there’s a sort of balance, a neutrality. And the DOJ is some kind of impartial office (just like the FBI and CIA). Even though the entire alphabet soup has been directed squarely against Trump for 8 years now. The result is that they list the charges against the two sides as follows: 91 against Trump, one -small one- against Hunter, and zero against Joe Biden (he’s not even mentioned here). Not one word about Joe Biden’s own involvement in what Hunter is accused of. Not one word about the laptop. Or about the tens of millions of dollars the House Commitee says the Biden family received from foreign sources. Ergo: Trump is much worse than Hunter. And Joe never put a single finger wrong. What Hunter Biden Charges Mean For The President Politically speaking, there are currently two Americas. One is outraged and horrified that the former president, Donald Trump, is facing 91 federal and state criminal charges in what they see as a deep state conspiracy orchestrated in part by Joe Biden’s Department of Justice. The other believes that very same justice department has spent five years unfairly pursuing Mr Biden’s son, Hunter, over his tax affairs and behaviour while a self-declared and repentant drug addict. In other words, both Americas believe the department responsible for enforcing the laws of the land has been taken captive by the other side and is hopelessly politicised. “..improper and partisan interference..” but not from the Democrats… Hunter Biden’s lawyer responded to the news that his client had been indicted on three federal gun charges by accusing the prosecutor of bending to “improper and partisan interference” from Trump-supporting Republicans. Meanwhile, Andy Biggs, one of those conservatives in Congress, suggested the charges were simply a manoeuvre to make it look like the justice department was fair. “Don’t fall for it. They’re trying to protect him from way more serious charges coming his way!”, he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. Republicans only focus on Hunter because of Trump’s “legal jeopardies”. Not because of the laptop contents. Which the FBI sat on for 5 years, and we would never have known about if the repair shop owner had not given a copy to Rudy Giuliani. The FBI were busy targeting Trump, after all. Hunter’s “legal woes” are only “a blow in a personal sense to his father”. Surely not because his father pops up a thousand times in the laptop in comprimising ways, Hunter Biden’s legal woes will of course be a blow in a personal sense to his father and his family. But the ramifications go much further than that. Republicans have for some time known that the president’s son is a vulnerability. Exploiting that has the power not just to significantly rile up Joe Biden, but also to help distract from their own problems with Mr Trump’s legal jeopardies. Add to that the fact that most Democrats, when asked, are far from happy that Mr Biden is running for the White House again in 2024. Hunter seems like just another reason for some continuing to press for the 80-year-old president to step aside for the next generation. But wait, this is not about Hunter, it’s about Trump. And it’s certainly not about Joe. Nothing Hunter did could possible be as grave as Trump’s actions. Why else would there be 91 charges against him? All this means that the outcome of Hunter Biden’s case will play a significant part in what promises to be a turbulent election year. But Republicans face something of a dilemma. It’s true that the three gun-related charges are felonies rather than misdemeanours; and it’s true that further charges could come relating to Hunter Biden’s tax affairs and foreign dealings. But none of it currently quite rises to the scale and quantity of Donald Trump’s alleged crimes. So any attempt to weaponise Hunter Biden’s problems could simply invite the American people to compare and contrast. Also, as Democrats will no doubt continue to point out, Hunter Biden is not running for dog catcher, let alone to be President of the United States. “After all, there is nothing in the Constitution about drug addicts being unable to bear arms.” Gotta love that line. One intriguing aspect of Hunter Biden’s case is that his lawyers clearly believe the plea deal that broke down in July could still be resurrected – and that the recent expansion of Second Amendment rights by various courts could be an element in his defence. After all, there is nothing in the Constitution about drug addicts being unable to bear arms. That would be an extraordinary irony given where most Democrats stand on gun control. “..seven months of existing investigations into Hunter Biden..” Again, the FBI has had the laptop for 5 years. What more can you say? Jim Jordan just yesterday in the House: “We have an investigation run by Mr. Weiss that not only had a sweetheart deal rejected, but according to The New York Times, there was an even sweeter earlier deal with Mr. Biden where he would not have to plead guilty to anything. Four and a half years and all that..” Thursday’s indictment came just days after Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, announced an impeachment inquiry into President Biden – a move dismissed as a political stunt by the White House. Mr McCarthy said there were “serious and credible allegations” into the family’s business dealings and President Biden’s conduct. And Republicans will hope this new inquiry implicates the president in the peddling of power and corruption. So far, however, seven months of existing investigations into Hunter Biden have produced snippets from former business partners, an FBI informant and a couple of IRS agents, but nothing that comes close to a real smoking gun. The reason for the impeachment inquiry vs Joe Biden is not to get rid of him, or even “win a vote”, it’s to establish a record. The Senate would never agree to impeach him, just like it didn’t Donald Trump when the GOP had a majority. But the record is crucial. Pelosi and Schiff knew it, and now so does the GOP. That may change when the subpoenas begin to fly, but the Republican majority in the House is so slim, that it is far from certain that Republicans would win an impeachment vote on the House floor, if it got that far. What is certain, is that the once-clear distinction between the political and legal systems has become increasingly blurred. And that’s a major problem, according to Randy Zelin, adjunct professor of law at Cornell Law School. “Somebody woke up one day and said, boy I have a new toy and that is called the federal criminal justice system, where I’m going to use the criminal system to punish people who don’t agree with my politics,” Prof Zelin told the BBC. “I think the sole influence here is that this country is being torn apart by this never-ending battle.” This is how the media today wants you to see it. But where were they during the Steele dossier days? Or any of the other anti-Trump shenanigans? Remember, they never proved a single thing against him. They just “won” some votes in theaters where they had a majority. And now they’ve come up with 91 new charges in the theaters that the DOJ and FBI have been turned into. Vs zero for Joe Biden. And one puny one for Hunter. Hey, we have an election coming up. I suggested recently that there wouldn’t be a US election in 2024. But trying to imagine what would happen if they attempted to have one, replete with Dominion machines and mail-in ballots, I’m starting to wonder if there will be a country left next year to hold an election in. The two sides are so far apart (not really of course, they’re still neighbors, it’s all in the head), that they may as well live in different countries. And then one day they actually might. 1861 is not that long ago. *  *  * Support the Automatic Earth via Patreon.   Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 16:20.....»»

Planet Fitness CEO Chris Rondeau was fired after a decade at the helm and replaced by ex-NH Gov. Craig Benson. The gym's stock price fell by 20%. Chris Rondeau, the former CEO of Planet Fitness.Bernard Weil/Toronto Star via Getty ImagesPlanet Fitness' board of directors asked its CEO Chris Rondeau to step down last week.Shares tumbled nearly 20% following the news.Rondeau told Insider he was "blind sided" by the board's decision.Former Planet Fitness CEO Chris Rondeau told Insider he didn't know why the company's board of directors asked him to resign last week, a move that sent Planet Fitness shares tumbling nearly 20%, shaving over $1 billion in market cap off the US's largest network of gyms, down from $5.2 billion to $4 billion in less than a week.Rondeau told Insider he was "seriously blindsided" by the board's decision to remove him as CEO, but declined to answer additional questions about his termination, citing a confidentiality clause in his separation agreement. Rondeau remains on the company's board of directors."I wasn't finished," he told Insider in a text message. "I had the best team best franchisees and an amazing business."Know more about Planet Fitness? Contact reporter Katherine Long via encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-206-375-9280) or email (klong@businessinsider.com), or reporter Jack Newsham via Signal (+1-314-971-1627) or email (jnewsham@insider.com). Use a non-work device.Rondeau's separation agreement bars him from contacting any Planet Fitness employees except those in the legal or human resources divisions "about your employment or the end of your employment with the Company." (A separate non-solicitation clause blocks him from trying to recruit his former employees for new ventures.)A Planet Fitness spokesperson did not respond to questions about Rondeau's departure. Previously, the company had directed inquiries to a press release noting that the "management change is not the result of any material or unexpected financial events."Still, Rondeau's ouster has generated a rash of price target reductions from Wall Street analysts. Jefferies, JP Morgan, and other analysts have downgraded the stock due to concerns over Planet Fitness' executive transition.The low-cost, low-frills gym saw same-store sales rise nearly 9% last quarter, according to its most recent earnings report. But inflation has caused the cost of opening new franchises to rise nearly 25%, leading some analysts to question whether Planet Fitness might consider increasing the price of its $10-a-month basic membership.On a quarterly earnings call last month, Rondeau said ditching the $10-a-month membership might "cheapen the brand," but that the company is trying to convince customers to upgrade to pricier membership tiers.Rondeau has been a fixture at Planet Fitness nearly since the gym's founding. He started working at the front desk of the company's first location in New Hampshire in 1993 and was named CEO in 2013.But his tenure hasn't been without blemishes.In 2018, a former Planet Fitness employee alleged in a hostile workplace lawsuit that Rondeau and another executive had sexual relationships with subordinates. The former employee, Casey Willard, called Planet Fitness a "debaucherous" workplace. Drinking on the job was encouraged, Willard said in the suit, at events like "Fireball Fridays" and "Beers with Peers" that sometimes started before 8:30 am. In her suit, Willard said she was drugged and raped by a manager on a work trip and then pressured into a relationship with her boss.The suit settled in 2021 for undisclosed terms.Rondeau, in a text message to Insider, said that he never had an inappropriate relationship with an employee, "absolutely not on my kid's life." In court papers, Planet Fitness denied most of Willard's claims, including her claims about Rondeau.Rondeau's contributions to conservative politicians, including Donald Trump, attracted negative media attention in 2019. Rondeau gave just over $1,200 to Trump and another $1,000 to the congressional campaign of a former New Hampshire state senator.Earlier this year, an investing newsletter said the gym could be violating consumer protection laws by making it purposefully difficult to cancel memberships. Though Planet Fitness' often-frustrating billing practices are common knowledge – the company has an "F" rating from the Better Business Bureau – the information in the blog posts was cited by law firms after Rondeau's ouster as a potential basis for shareholder suits against the company.The lack of information about Rondeau's firing has allowed rumors to proliferate. On X, formerly Twitter, Planet Fitness cofounder Mike Grondahl claimed that the board of directors has "been corrupt from day 1," and that the company's former general counsel was a "pedophile." Grondahl declined to speak on the record.Planet Fitness appointed board member Craig Benson interim CEO while the company looks for a new chief executive.Know more about Planet Fitness? Contact reporter Katherine Long via encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-206-375-9280) or email (klong@businessinsider.com), or reporter Jack Newsham via Signal (+1-314-971-1627) or email (jnewsham@insider.com). Use a non-work device.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Does The UAW Union Merit A Huge Raise By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk The real problem is productivity says Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal. Greg Ip says American Labor’s Real Problem: It Isn’t Productive Enough For the United Auto Workers, it makes perfect sense to demand more pay and better work-life balance from Detroit’s three automakers. After all, workers throughout this historically tight labor market are getting exactly that. But what makes sense to striking factory workers makes no sense for manufacturing as a whole. Pay is ultimately tied to productivity: the quantity and quality of products a company’s workforce churns out. And here, American manufacturing companies and workers are in trouble. The issue isn’t with labor-intensive products such as clothing and furniture, which largely moved offshore long ago. Rather, it’s in the most advanced products: electric cars and batteries, power-generation equipment, commercial aircraft and semiconductors. Yes, American companies still lead the world in design and innovation, but the resulting products increasingly are made abroad, especially in Asia. Biden, like former President Donald Trump before him, wants to reverse this, through tariffs, subsidies and other government interventions. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and especially China certainly intervened plenty to help their manufacturers. Unions need to accept they’re not yet up to the job. “Everyone loses the skills they don’t practice,” Kevin Xu wrote recently on his China-focused blog, Interconnected. Xu, who once worked with unions to get former President Barack Obama elected, says unions need to be told “that they are not the best, but they can be if they stay humble (and) soak up all the know-how and skills from workers elsewhere.” Manufacturing Productivity Growth The US leads the world in innovation and design. No one competes with Apple in phones, US companies in chip design, or Tesla in starting EV innovation. But the best chip factories are in Taiwan and South Korea, Apple depends on China, and Tesla’s best plant is in Shanghai. Labor Productivity Since 2009 The WSJ has this alternate chart that’s worth a look. I would gladly have used that data in my chart except the St. Louis Fed doesn’t have it, the data is annual, doesn’t go back far enough, isn’t current, and percentages can be misleading. The decline in 2022 was certainly influenced by the Covid pandemic. Labor presents problems other than just cost, such as the shortage of skilled workers. “They find desirable candidates, they hire them, they train them, they don’t retain them,” said Jim Schmidt, an automotive expert at consultants Oliver Wyman. “A lot of the younger workforce doesn’t want to do that type of work.” For some, absenteeism is another problem. “You need a lot of additional labor to backfill for absenteeism,” Schmidt said. “That can lead to large effects on productivity, quality and culture.” The US big 3 automakers have just two of the top ten 10 dependable brands ranked by J.D. Power and just one of the 10 best cars picked by Consumer Reports, note Greg Ip. Beyond autos, Boeing has been plagued by production and quality issues. Airbus delivered three times the number of aircraft than Boeing. Union work rules and absenteeism are problems in the US. The UAW wants a shorter work week and jobs protection. US companies use the fewest robots in general. Unions don’t like robots or the loss of jobs that come with robots. Topping it off, EVs are easier to manufacture. The internal combustion engine has about 2,000 moving parts but an electric engine has about 20. So not only will EVs reduce the manufacturing need, they will reduce the need for union auto mechanics. Total UAW Unit Labor Costs vs Tesla Big Three: Analysts estimate $66 an hour Tesla: Roughly $45 at Tesla UAW Demands: Meeting Fain’s initial demands would boost costs to $136 according to Wells Fargo analysts. Elon Musk Taunts the UAW, “Tesla Pays Workers More and We Have Fun” Production costs are far cheaper at Tesla and nonunion plants. For discussion, please see Elon Musk Taunts the UAW, “Tesla Pays Workers More and We Have Fun” The unions want protection from foreign competition, from Tesla, from EVs in general, and higher wages to boot while producing lower quality cars. A huge UAW pay increase will only exacerbate the problem. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 09:05.....»»

Six Reasons Why Corporate Profits Will Fall 50% Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Should stock valuations track this same decline in profits, it's entirely reasonable to expect the stock market to lose 2/3 of its valuation premium. All Six of the reasons corporate profits will decline by half are common sense: 1. Reversion to the mean: profits that are double the historical average as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are highly likely not to be a sustainable New Normal. The far more likely track is a reversion to the historical average, which is about 50% below corporate profits' current 12% of GDP. Permanently elevated plateaus of stock valuations and corporate profits are both compelling chimera. (see chart below) 2. The Boost phase of Globalization has ended. The era of hyper-globalization is clearly visible on the charts of corporate profits and corporate profits as a percentage of GDP: right after China was accepted into the WTO in 2001, US corporate profits skyrocketed in both nominal dollars and as a percentage of the US economy (GDP). Globalization's boost phase that sent corporate profits into orbit has rounded the S-Curve and is now in the stagnation / decline phase. (see chart below) The reasons why hyper-globalization rocketed corporate profits to unprecedented heights are both well-known and terribly inconvenient to the happy story that globalization will magically generate unprecedented profits forever. The primary drivers were global labor and environmental arbitrage, a.k.a. exploit cheap labor in sweatshops and dump all the toxic waste of industrialization in developing nations with lax environmental standards and enforcement. As the chart below shows, wages in China are no longer low, and China has begun improving its environmental standards. 3. Quality and durability have been gutted and there's no more profit to pluck from buying lower-quality components and inputs, as the cheapest, lowest-quality components and inputs have already been standardized. Hyper-globalization provided the ideal cover for the systemic collapse of quality and durability. This corporate institutionalization of planned obsolescence, abysmal quality and shrinkflation all boosted profits enormously, but there's nothing left at the bottom of the barrel; corporations have licked the profitable slop of planned obsolescence, abysmal quality and shrinkflation clean. The super-efficient global supply chains are also breaking under the strain of geopolitical and national security priorities, and the difficulties of replacing existing supply chains, which depend on cheap energy and transport and a massive infrastructure to serve trade that non-industrialized developing nations cannot duplicate. 4. Hyper-financialization has also entered the decay-collapse phase. Hyper-financialization drove corporate profits in two ways: A. As borrowing costs dropped to unprecedented lows, corporations could borrow vast sums at near-zero rates to scoop up other companies with positive cash flow, gut the quality and staff and scoop up the resulting cost reductions as profits. B. Consumers could borrow vast sums at low rates to buy products that they would not have been able to afford at historically average interest rates. For example, with 1.9% (or even zero) financing, new autos and trucks became more affordable. With demand strong, corporations could keep prices high and reap the gains of stronger sales. Now that zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) has ended its disruptive reign, the tailwinds of zero rates have reversed into the headwinds of structurally higher rates. 5. The asymmetric distribution of the economy's output favoring corporations at the expense of labor is finally shifting. After 45 years of capital skimming $50 trillion from labor, rising rates of disability, unfavorable demographics, systemic healthcare inflation and social dynamics are pushing labor costs higher. 6. Debt saturation. Corporate profits soared from $800 billion annually to $3.5 trillion in 2022 on the tailwinds of public and private debt skyrocketing from $30 trillion in 2000 to $95 trillion today. With the era of zero cost of debt over, we've entered an era of debt saturation: households, government and enterprises can no longer afford to take on more debt without triggering unintended consequences or slashing discretionary spending to service the higher costs of new and existing debts. Since growth depends on the ceaseless expansion of debt and the discretionary spending it enables, growth reverses along with discretionary spending. Corporations will find it impossible to keep prices at nosebleed levels as consumer demand plummets while costs remain sticky. Rather than being the New Normal, corporations skimming 11% of GDP as profits was a one-time outlier resulting from the one-time boost of hyper-financialization, hyper-globalization and ZIRP. US GDP is around $26 trillion according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Corporate profits sagged a bit to $3.2 trillion in Q1 2023, roughly 12.3% of GDP. Should profits decline to 5% of GDP ($1.3 trillion), this would be in the middle of the historic range. In a real recession, they could dip to 3% of GDP ($800 billion). At 5% of GDP ($1.3 trillion), corporations would still be making money but not at rates that would justify today's absurdly overvalued stock valuations. The $2 trillion haircut equates to a 2/3 decline. Should stock valuations track this same decline in profits, it's entirely reasonable to expect the stock market to lose 2/3 of its valuation premium--a premium based not on anything remotely sustainable, but on a one-off of hyper-financialization, hyper-globalization and zero interest rates. There's nothing wrong with a 5% of GDP run-rate for corporate profits. That's still a very healthy return. It's only a disaster in a highly distorted funhouse whose players have lost touch with reality. *  *  * My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century. Read the first chapter for free (PDF) Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 10:15.....»»

Joe Biden Defiles The Corpse Of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Yesterday, an apparently fake headline circulated on Twitter (or X, or whatever the f**k it’s called this week), alleging that President Biden was open to “depleting” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve due to rising oil prices. Many quickly accepted the headline as genuine, perhaps because it sounded precisely like something President Biden might say. I spent some of the afternoon looking for the source and it was not The Wall Street Journal, as claimed on Twitter. Though the headline was fabricated, it almost doesn’t even matter at this point. President Biden has made it clear that tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is perpetually under consideration, undoubtedly because oil prices (and the prices of everything, i.e. inflation) have become a headline issue in the upcoming presidential election. In essence, the lower oil’s price is, the easier it is for President Biden to claim success in fighting inflation. Reduced oil prices also enable leftists to argue that limiting drilling domestically does not adversely affect consumers and therefore, we should all do whatever the f**k they want at any and all times, including cheering them on while they deface priceless historic works of art, all in the name of sacred “climate change.” However, by perpetuating this oil price “solution” charade with a series of short-term fixes, the administration sacrifices our country’s long-term goals, ultimately causing more harm than good. As Jim Bianco correctly noted on Twitter yesterday, the SPR was created to prevent supply shocks (i.e. shortages of actual oil) that the U.S. saw in the 1970s — not to manage prices of ample supply. And then there’s that pesky term “strategic” that keeps popping up. Has “The Big Guy” ever asked himself what that word means in the context of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? After all, it’s not just the petroleum reserve, it’s the strategic petroleum reserve. Oxford defines the word as “relating to the identification of long-term or overall aims and interests and the means of achieving them”. The word implies long-term planning, something evidently lacking in the administration’s approach. Their decisions instead seek short term political currency by depleting our national reserve, meant for emergencies, not market fluctuations. Price serves as a rationing mechanism and government interference distorts this natural function. I am once again reminded of the chief reminding Marcus and Mike in Bad Boys 2 of the meaning of the word “tactical”. “What’s your job description? What is your job description,” the public asks Biden as the SPR lays bone dry. “Tactical narcotics team! Key word: tactical! Displaying finesse and subtlety in achieving the goal! Tell me gentlemen, what was subtle about your work today? 42 cars - and a boat!” “Strategic petroleum reserve. Key word: strategic! Definition: relating to the identification of long-term or overall aims and interests and the means of achieving them. Tell me President Biden, what was long-term about defiling the corpse of the strategic petroleum reserve to get gas prices down $0.10 for 10 minutes?” Not only is the move not “strategic”, it makes us look vulnerable on the world stage. Ironically, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman tried to warn us back in late 2022 that emptying our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was a stupid idea to try and “temporarily” fix oil market prices. "People are depleting their emergency stocks, had depleted it, used it as a mechanism to manipulate markets while its profound purpose was to mitigate shortage of supply. However, it is my profound duty to make it clear to the world that losing emergency stock may become painful in the months to come," he said back in October. 50% OFF ALL SUBSCRIPTIONS: Subscribe and get 50% off and no price hikes for as long as you wish to be a subscriber. After all, everyone knows there’s only one organization that’s allowed to manipulate oil supply, and that’s OPEC. Oh, and now maybe BRICS, which is soon to have 6 of the top 10 largest oil producers in the world, making up about 40% of the world’s total oil supply Not only did the Biden Administration not heed this warning, but they also seem to have little to no understanding about geopolitics or free market economics. If they did, they would see they are putting the country into a precarious position when it’s totally unnecessary. They continue to use the SPR as a short term solution to what is going to become a long-term problem. The plundering shown above will do very little to the price of oil over the long term. Somewhere, OPEC is laughing. Here’s where draining the SPR has gotten us over the last year: Meanwhile, using up the SPR does little to ensure energy security in potential times of war (we technically aren’t, but we’re fighting Ukraine’s war), natural disaster (read: Maui, etc.), or other significant crises (a massive developing Cold War and erosion of the petrodollar). As Zero Hedge noted last week, we are at the lowest levels of total crude inventories in America since 1985, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Per Bloomberg, oil prices had been coiling for a few days ahead of data out last week and are “breaking out recently after OPEC reported that global oil markets face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter - potentially the biggest deficit in more than a decade.” “If realized, it could be the biggest inventory drawdown since at least 2007, according to a Bloomberg analysis of figures published by OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat,” a report last week said. It continued: OPEC’s 13 members have pumped an average of 27.4 million barrels a day so far this quarter, or roughly 1.8 million less than it believes consumers needed, according to the report. And so, the problem is that no matter how many times Joe Biden taps the SPR, it’s fruitless, because OPEC calls all the shots. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) gets together and decides how much oil they're going to pump and sell on the market. By controlling the supply of oil, they can influence its price. If they produce less, scarcity kicks in and prices go up; if they produce more, there's a surplus and prices go down. The situation is even more absurd given that the Biden administration is actively preventing U.S. companies from drilling for more oil. Our reserves are a safety net for national emergencies, not a solution to $80 or $100 per barrel oil. And this is not a national emergency, but an “electability emergency” for President Biden. The disconnect between halting drilling leases and daily pump pain boils down to dollars and cents. Short-term gains in electability come at the expense of long-term national interests and you and I paying more at the pump. Voters and consumers have two ways to think about the issue: one is the delusional take that the administration is actively doing its job and managing the issue by diving into our nation’s surplus at a time of need. The second is the double-whammy of a reality check that the administration is selling the country’s safety net out, putting us in a precarious position, and exacerbating price issues by stopping oil companies from bringing new supply online. It’s literally an instance where the government is making the problem worse than it was to begin with. But once again we are reminded that the nation is unable to deal with even a slight moment of temporary discomfort when it comes to markets and prices. We continue to focus on short term fixes, not just with the strategic petroleum reserve, but with the stock market and the economy, meaning that the long-term prices (literally and figuratively) we will eventually pay will be that much more consequential. More from Fringe Finance: Sick Thoughts Of Capitulating 100 Sigma Events? Fed Rate Cuts Should Scare The Shit Out Of You Peter Schiff: Fed Money Magicians Running Out of Rabbits Joe Rogan Will Interview Donald Trump The Unforgivable Ivermectin Swindle This Popular Stock Could Be An Unexpected Land Mine QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 12:25.....»»

Extreme weather, poorer health, and lower productivity are all costs of the climate crisis. Yet it can be an opportunity to build resiliency. Extreme weather is occurring more often. These events pose risks to the economy.APThis article is part of Insider's "The True Cost of Extreme Weather" project. Read more here.The climate crisis is about many things. One of them is that tiny numbers add up to big effects.About two degrees Fahrenheit. That's how much the planet has warmed since the preindustrial era, before the advent of smokestacks and cars.At least $165 billion. That's how much the US recorded in weather-related damage last year — a total that can't all be blamed on the climate crisis, but has been made worse by a warming world.This story keeps getting replayed around the world and in people's wallets. Those costs will only climb if we don't address the climate crisis, economists tell Insider. But in these sometimes-scary numbers, there are is also opportunity — a chance to remake the global economy into one that's far more resilient and in which the climate isn't blowing holes in our wallets. The ultimate goal, Amir Jina, an environmental economist at the University of Chicago, told Insider, should be to create a world where "climate or weather is a problem as boring as plumbing."But to get there, we'll need to spend a lot of money up front and be real about the climate costs we're already paying — even if we don't always notice them.The full costs of extreme weather are often hiddenThe biggest fires, floods, and heat waves tend to draw headlines. But for years, the more subtle effects of extreme weather had gone pretty much unnoticed. That's changing. Research over the past decade has exposed the wider-ranging fallout from wild weather. It's been linked to poorer health and higher mortality, of course. Yet extreme weather is also linked to costs like lower productivity at work, reduced crop yields, and worse mental health. It's also tied to an increased risk of suicide, and higher rates of property crime, murder, rape, and civil unrest.In short, "How's the weather?" is becoming an increasingly important question. Weather extremes put a strain on society, and that leaves the social safety net to pick up the slack. "The science on this in the past 10 years has just shown that even in the wealthiest countries, we are very much susceptible to exposure to weather, heat, disasters, etc. in a way which we probably thought we could adapt our way out or spend our way out of," Jina said.One study looking at the cost of hurricanes between 1979 and 2002 found that about a decade on, the storms cost about tenfold more than the initial amount spent on disaster relief. Those costs, the study found, were hidden in local budgets, in spending on social programs, and in insurance payouts. People in Tarpon Springs, Florida, had to evacuate their homes after Hurricane Idalia inundated the area over the summer.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesAll of these sleeper effects cost money. And that has to come from somewhere. This "affects the taxes, it affects health insurance, and many other costs that we pay towards the running of the government, and it spreads down across the economy," Jina said.  "There's almost no sector of the economy that people have looked at where we haven't seen a negative effect — particularly of heat," he added.Still, for many of us, unless we get hit with a big event, we don't always notice when we encounter these costs. "You could pick up the shadow of extremely hot days on people's incomes at the end of the year," Jina said. "There's this incremental increase in costs that people are facing, where no one in the US, or no one in the world, is truly insulated from the economic consequences of climate change."As climate disasters rise, social safety nets start to strainThe steepest cost of extreme weather can't be measured in dollars and cents: People are dying, losing loved ones, and forgoing livelihoods.Yet, for now, governments can offset many of the most acute financial costs of catastrophic events by drawing on emergency funds and letting some of the bills fall to private insurance. The COVID-19 pandemic was a similar type of catastrophe, Creon Butler, the director of the global economy and finance program at the London think tank Chatham House, told Insider. Even though the crisis brought enormous costs, many governments managed to shell out enough money to insulate their populations from the worst economic pain, he said.Record-high temperatures hit Phoenix over the summer.Mario Tama/Getty ImagesThose safety nets and economic buffers will likely start to strain and fail in a warmer world, Butler said, as catastrophes become more common.Just look at property insurance. "Insurance only works if the frequency of events doesn't change," Butler said. In a world where extreme weather becomes the norm, "private insurance won't be able to cope with that."At first, your premiums might start growing so that insurers can keep making a profit, Jina said. Down the line, insurers might decide to pull out of a market entirely. That's already happening in parts of the US.As the government starts shouldering more of the relief costs, taxes could go up and spending on other priorities like health or education could go down."It begins to then raise the question, can the government constantly protect its public?" Butler said. "And the answer is probably no."Economies lose out if they don't control climate change Economists haven't agreed on exactly how much climate change will cost in the future, though they do tend to share the sentiment that unless we limit emissions fast, these costs are going to be very difficult to deal with."Each new piece of information we learn is showing that the problem is actually worse than we thought," Jina said. One 2017 paper by Jina and his colleagues, which takes into account climate disasters and the growing effect of extreme weather on society, provides a sneak peek at how much the warming climate could cost the US by the end of the century.Smoke from Canadian wildfires turned the sky orange over New York City during the summer.ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty ImagesIt found that if little effort is made to control emissions — meaning temperatures rise by about three to six degrees Fahrenheit — these costs could strip about 2% to 5% off of the US gross domestic product every year between 2080 and 2099. If that estimate proves right, the economy "is probably still going to be growing," but the price of climate change will compound year over year to enormous, avoidable costs, Jina said."If we think about the future — even very conservatively — the benefits of mitigation always outweigh the costs," he said. This situation could be made worse by a looming financial "mega shock," which could arise as more people wake up to the reality of the climate crisis, Butler said.  Investors could suddenly pull out of markets, developing countries could quickly lose access to international financial markets, and people could demand governments bring in rapid policy changes as they see the weather get worse, Butler forecasted in a blog post.All of this means the longer people take to realize drastic action is needed, the more abrupt the transition will be. And economies aren't very good at dealing with rapid change.Mitigation and adaptation are going to be expensive, but they'll pay off There's now a "golden hour" to limit the worst of the effects of climate change and reach the best scenario available today, Jina said. A woman inspects the damage on Pine Island Road, Florida, after the passage of Hurricane Ian.Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesUnfortunately, historic emissions mean that some of the effects of the climate crisis are inevitable, per Jina. That means some will need to relocate and pricey infrastructure will need to be built to protect others from harsher environments. Countries will also need to invest to slow the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by moving away from fossil fuels and investing in measures to suck carbon dioxide out of the air.But those measures won't come cheap. The Biden administration has already earmarked $52 billion to tackle the climate crisis for 2024. That's likely not enough. Demand for climate spending could make for difficult economic times, Butler said. "We've got lots of priorities in terms of social care, general health, retirement, and so on. But none of that makes much sense unless you are actually protecting your public," said Butler. "And governments are going to have to choose."With effort, the climate crisis could be made "boring"Despite a long list of worries, there's reason for optimism: Climate change has never been so visible, and it's never been higher on the political agenda of government and international meetings, Jina and Butler said. At the same time, the price of renewable energy has dropped much faster than many analysts predicted. Both Jina and Butler said it's wrong to see the spending going to the net-zero transition as a loss. Instead, they said, we should see it as a necessary investment to build a sustainable and climate-resilient economy. "We currently have a system, both an energy system and an economic system, where we are quite susceptible to fluctuations in climate, where we are quite susceptible to big disasters, because of an interlinked economy," Jina said. "I would like a transition to an energy economy, facing this global energy challenge that we have, where this just becomes a completely boring issue."Jina points to how countries brought down the death toll from diarrheal diseases by rolling out plumbing. That initial investment must have seemed huge, yet now we reap the benefits of that infrastructure without even thinking about it, even though stomach bugs are still around. In the same way, a future economy could mean that thanks to clever adaptation policies, people are able to thrive in spite of an inevitable rise in climate extremes."Everything is taken care of. We don't have to talk about it. It's not politically contentious, and people aren't dying," Jina said of this future economy.Jina and Bulter said most economists agree investment in mitigation and adaptation today will be paid back many times over by the end of the century. There could be short-term benefits to this investment, according to the UN. For instance, cleaner air could save global economies $1.2 to $4.2 trillion by 2030 by reducing pollution. The transition to renewable energy could create up to 24 million jobs by 2030, compared with an estimated 6 million that could be lost, the UN reported.As of now, however, only four countries — Botswana, Denmark, Namibia, and the UK — are on track to meet zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, per the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization. "We're at this point where we could shift pretty dramatically. That really involves people raising their voices and people realizing there might be some short-term pain," Jina said.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Troops from one battalion published a video online in which they said they had abandoned their equipment after being ordered to form an assault group, according to a report. A building burns after shelling in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, on December 4, 2022, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.YEVHEN TITOV/AFP via Getty Images Russian forces are using desperate tactics to hold back Ukrainian advances, according to a think tank.  Soldiers say they're being ordered to make "ill-conceived" counterattacks, the Institute for the Study of War said. Ukraine is making slow but significant progress on the front near Bakhmut.  Russian commanders are ordering troops to make "ill-conceived" and "hysterical" counterattacks near the east Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in an urgent bid to regain lost ground, according to a respected US think tank. The Institute for the Study of War said recent posts by Russian military bloggers and servicemen revealed desperate conditions for the Russian military near Bakhmut, which has been at the center of ferocious fighting. Troops from one battalion published a video online in which they said they had abandoned their equipment after being ordered to form an assault group and attack in the Bakhmut direction, the ISW said. The think tank added that soldiers were being posted to the front line with shoddy artillery shells that don't explode when fired, and referred to reports that Russia had been sacrificing safety and quality in its efforts to build weapons quickly.It added that morale was low after Ukrainian forces killed "most of an unspecified Russian regiment and almost an entire retreating assault group in the area."The ISW cited a Russian military blogger posting on Telegram, who criticized flawed orders to counterattack and retake the village of Andriivka, near Bakhmut. "The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command was planning 'weak' counterattacks and failed to provide accurate intelligence to Russian assault units. The milblogger observed that Russian forces also lack artillery support, while 'hysterical' counterattacks are depleting Russian resources and reserves," said the report. Insider has been unable to verify the claims cited by the ISW, but it's one of a series of reports painting a picture of desperation as Russia seeks to stop Ukraine from breaking through its defensive lines. As Insider's Sophia Ankel reported, Ukraine is believed to have punched through Russia's formidable anti-tank and "dragon's teeth" defenses with vehicles for the first time, according to multiple analysts.George Barros, a lead analyst at ISW, located the assault near the southern village of Verbove.Experts believe that Ukraine is probing several axes on the front line simultaneously, as part of a strategy to get Russia to spread its forces thin. The UK's military intelligence on Wednesday said that Ukraine was drawing closer to cutting off a crucial supply route to Bakhmut.The city has been the scene of some of the most ferocious fighting in the war, with Russian forces taking control of the region in May in one of the Kremlin's few notable recent successes. "Since 15 September 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have secured the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, approximately 8km to the south of the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut. This tactical success brings Ukrainian forces closer to the T 05-13 road, one of the main supply routes into Bakhmut from the south," the UK Ministry of Defense said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»