The Fed Has Crossed The "Hard Landing" Rubicon So How High Will It Hike? One Bank Crunches The Numbers One month ago, a SocGen strategist calculated something remarkable: at a time when the Fed is warning of multiple 50bps hikes in coming FOMC meetings and Powell is threatening to take fed funds above neutral - somewhere in the great unknown zone between 2.0% and 4.5% - and even the gradually fading market consensus still expects just under 8 hikes this cycle... ... quant Solomon Tadesse calculated that according to his analysis, if the Fed i focused on preserving growth (at the expense of higher inflation), then Fed Funds will peak at just around 1.0%, which combined with a QT programme to the tune of about $1.8tn, means the Fed will very soon be forced to reverse. Furthermore, as Tadesse has since pointed out, with the Fed’s recent bold 50bp hike, "there does not seem much room left for manoeuvring for the desired soft-landing." He then echoes what we have been saying in recent weeks, namely that the "type of week-long market meltdown witnessed since the recent hike often precedes a policy about-face in line with our projection." Ok but what if having decided to push the US into a recession, growth be damned, the Fed is now focusing only and entirely on inflation?  After all, current rates are far, far below the prevailing CPI which is around 8%, and while many argue whether CPI has peaked, there is a significant possibility CPI could hit double digits in the coming months. This is the question that Tadesse addresses in his latest must-read note (available to pro subs in the usual place), in which he writes that "an inflation-fighting impulse is currently in the air, begging the question of what it could take to stamp out the current trend for good, even at the cost of a hard landing." According to the SocGen quant, given the rising inflation prints and accompanying political pressure, if the pro-growth tightening threshold is breached - which it likely will be as soon as the next FOMC meeting, making a hard landing inevitable, and unleashing the Fed in favor of a single-minded inflation-fighting policy stance, Tadesse's analysis suggests that it "could take overall monetary tightening of as much as 9.25% to arrest inflation, with the policy rate going up to 4.5% and the balance coming from QT of about $3.9tn, which would slash the current Fed balance sheet by about half." Here is some more detail from the SocGen quant on this potential "alternative" in which the Fed single-mindedly pursues inflation containment, going Volcker-style with accelerated rate hikes reminiscent of the 1970s and early 1980s, when the average MTE (tightening to easing) ratio was about 1.5x (left-hand chart below).: Such aggressive monetary tightening with a focus solely on inflation containment, even at the cost of inducing recession, according to our analysis, would require overall monetary tightening of about 11.6%. Given that rates have already been tightened by 2.5%, another 9.25% of monetary tightening might be expected via policy rate hikes and an aggressive QT program. The policy rate could go up by as much as 4.5%, with the remainder coming from QT (right-hand chart above). These projections are all before the 4 May rate hike of 50bp, which lowers the balance proportionately. At a rate of 12bp per $100bn of QT, this also amounts to a QT program of about $3.9tn, roughly equivalent to the net growth in the Fed’s balance sheet during the pandemic. An important caveat in the analysis is the presumption that current inflation levels resemble those of the late 1970s through the 1980s. As recent inflation prints are the highest in 40 years, this might be a reasonable assumption, particularly in reference to the rates seen in the early 1980s. In addition, in interpretating the results, there is an implicit assumption that the current inflation prints are persistent and demand driven. However, as our earlier analysis shows, the current inflation dynamics are driven both by transitory supply-related disruptions and demand-driven price pressures. Should the supply bottlenecks ease over time, the degree of monetary tightening needed to contain inflation through demand destruction could turn out to be lower. The above-left chart shows monetary policy frontiers (MPF). These are all the policy-rate hike and QT combinations that could generate the inflation-containing overall tightening of upwards of 9pp and the growth-conscious overall tightening discussed earlier, with the most likely outcomes of policy combinations identified with stars. Thus, our analysis suggests that while it might only take another 25-50bp for growth-conscious tightening to peak before a hard landing, an aggressive inflation-containing policy could mean additional policy rate hikes of up to 4.0pp. As noted earlier, the above analysis assumes that the Fed is resigned to a hard-landing. Does it mean that a soft-landing is now inevitable? Pretty much. Here is Tadasse again: In an earlier research note, we argued that if current monetary policy follows a pro-growth impulse, as has been the case over the past four decades, the current tightening phase could peak with only 0.75-1pp of rate hikes, combined with a QT program to the tune of about $1.8tn. After the Fed’s recent bold 50bp hike, there now does not seem to be much room left for manoeuvring toward a soft landing. Moreover, the type of week-long market meltdown witnessed since the hike has often preceded a policy about-face, which is what we expect. Summarizing the above, the SocGen quant writes that "monetary policy is thus at a crossroads, with a stark choice between a ‘growth’ conscious, albeit inflationary, rate-hike cycle, peaking after 300bp of tightening (with a mix of QT and FFR) or an inflation-containing, albeit recessionary, rate-hike cycle, peaking at about a 925bp of overall tightening (with a mix of 450bp in policy rate and the balance from QT)." And while there could be possibilities in between these two extremes, the middle ground may not, in general, be an admissible rational strategy. Such an intermediate path, plausible due to political pressure or a mid-course reversal in policy priorities between price stability and full employment, would likely fail to accomplish either mandate and could damage central bank credibility. What does this mean for traders? Nothing good - as Tadesse concludes, equity strategies do not fare well in scenarios of high inflation and declining growth (i.e. stagflation), as companies struggle with falling revenues and rising costs, lower growth causes lower earnings, and higher rates combined with an increase in the equity-risk premium negatively impact valuations. And while SocGen notes, that "cash flow and balance-sheet strength would matter for relative performance here", we would add that the real question is how fast does the market expect inflation to shrink back to the 2-3% range. The answer to that question will determine most investing strategies for the next year or so. For those unable or unwilling to answer, a simple heuristic is that strategies that pay high dividends at cheap valuations (such as quality income) should do well in this environment. So should equity strategies dominated by firms with pricing power, such as those in the upstream of the production chain, as should defensive equity strategies with stable cash flows and relative pricing power (such as utilities, the quality and quality income factors). Pair trades can use these as the long legs, offset with shorts among cyclical and aggressive growth strategies. The full note quantifying how high Powell will raise rates is available to pro subs. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 22:00.....»»

Deckers Outdoor Corp. wrapped up a record year with roughly $2 billion in sales of Ugg boots, pushing the company to an earnings beat and a soaring stock price Thursday......»»

Economic Optimism Has Collapsed Under Biden: Poll While the Biden administration continues to congratulate itself for the 'strongest job creation economy in modern times' (which isn't difficult when your y/y baseline was caused by economy-killing lockdowns), most people aren't buying it. In fact, as people face $100 tanks of gas and skyrocketing grocery prices, the Economic Optimism Index poll from IBD/TIPP plunged 9.5% in May, dropping to 41.2 - which, as Issues & Insights' editorial board notes, puts it firmly in the pessimism zone. This marks the worst reading since the height of the COVID pandemic, which bottomed out at 44 in July 2020. Meanwhile, the PBD/TIPP Financial Stress Index has skyrocketed - hitting 69.3 (above 50 indicates 'high stress') - or around where it was during the 2008 financial crisis. Under Biden's watch it's climbed 22%. As I&I notes: For Biden to say the economy “is on the move” is truly delirious. GDP was down 1.4% in the first quarter, and nearly half of adults think we are already in a recession, the IBD/TIPP poll found.  DOOCY: "Americans are now spending $5,000 a year on gasoline. That’s almost double what they did a year ago. Where are people supposed to go to get all that extra cash?" JEAN-PIERRE: "To get the extra cash to pay for gas?” DOOCY: “Yeah.” JEAN-PIERRE: “Well, I mean..." pic.twitter.com/KPzvhGxx78 — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 18, 2022 I&I also points out that while Biden brags about creating "8.3 million jobs in my first 15 months in office - a record," there were 12.5 million jobs created during the last nine months of the Trump administration - with more than half of those having been lost during the lockdowns. More via I&I: Biden also likes to boast about wage growth, without pointing out that inflation has climbed faster than wages, leaving workers worse off – real wages are down 3% since he took office. This, too, is a dramatic turnaround from the Trump years, when real wages climbed 10%.   The IBD/TIPP Poll found that only 18% of the adults surveyed say their earnings have kept pace with inflation.   ...  In his remarks last week, Biden said “when you look at the economy today, it’s clear that we’ve made enormous strides.”   He’s right about that. Unfortunately, those enormous strides have all been in the wrong direction. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 19:00.....»»

Shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) slipped more than 6.8% on Wednesday, to a value of $169.38, during what turned out to be a rather inexorable day on the trading floor. Indeed, every index suffered overall losses with the NASDAQ closing down more than 5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 […] Shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) slipped more than 6.8% on Wednesday, to a value of $169.38, during what turned out to be a rather inexorable day on the trading floor. Indeed, every index suffered overall losses with the NASDAQ closing down more than 5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 each fell 4.04% and 3.57%, respectively. The Dow finished the day at 3,923.68 while the S&P finished at 31,490.07. Trading volume on the day held at 54.1M, which is still 2.4 million below the 56.5 million 50-day average volume. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more NVIDIA Underperforms Even Against Competitors The decline of NVDA stock was among the worst performer in the NASDAQ index. Competitors like Microsoft (MSFT), Intel Corp (INTC), and Texas Instruments (TXN) were all down at the end of the day. Texas Instruments had the smallest drop, of nearly 2.7% to $170.30 while Microsoft saw a 4.55% drop to $254.08. Finally, Intel Corp fell more than 4.6% to $42.35. For Nvidia Corp, though, the day was not a satisfying one. As such, on Wednesday NVDA closed $177.09 below its 52-week high of $346.47 (reached on November 22, 2021). Accordingly, Nvidia shares have slipped as much as 50% from its record high share price of $346, from last year. Currently, the Nvidia share price has a value of $177. Why Nvidia is Struggling Nvidia is probably most commonly known as a manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs) that make PC video gaming possible. Unfortunately, a decline in prices for these products could present a near-term risk to one of Nvidia's biggest revenue sources. As a matter of fact, gaming remains the largest segment for the company. Last year, alone, Nvidia's gaming revenue grew by 61% year-over-year, to $12.4 billion. But while the overall growth in this segment is excellent, declining sale prices could put a damper on things. During the pandemic, a microchip shortage shot selling prices for items like upgraded GPUs through the roof. Indeed, prices for both Nvidia's GeForce RTX 30 series and also the Radeon RX 6000 series from Advanced Micro Devices had been on an upward trend throughout all of last year. Since the start of 2022, however, GPU prices started to drop. In addition to this, two major global events have created major obstacles for various industries and including chip makers like Nvidia. For example, China's largest chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co (SMIC) has warned of a massive drop in both smartphones and personal computers. Primarily, SMIC CEO Zhao Haijun notes that COVID lockdowns across China and also the Russian invasion of Ukraine have destroyed demand for approximately 200 million smartphone units. While SMIC and Nvidia are two separate companies (operating in two different countries), SMIC's struggles could easily spell out an equally difficult fate for Nvidia. Indeed, there is a chance that SMIC could be just a microcosm in China for what could become a much larger complication in the global market. This Cloud Has a Silver Lining Finally, some analysts have noted that Nvidia stock is trading at a somewhat attractive price-to-earnings ratio of 31.5. More importantly, perhaps, some analysts also expect Nvidia to grow its earnings at a 30% compound annual rate across the next half a decade. On top of this, the market anticipates that Nvidia will deliver a YOY increase in earnings on notably higher revenues when it releases its Q1 2022 earnings report. With the first quarter ending in April, Nvidia is expected to release its new earnings report on May 25, 2022. If the key numbers in the report are better than analysts expected, the stock could see a bump in value. Of course, that also means the stock could slip even further if the numbers fail to meet expectations. That said, analysts do expect the gaming and artificial intelligence graphics chip maker will post quarterly earnings upwards of $1.30 per share in that coming report. This incline represents a positive YOY change of 41.3%. Similarly, revenue is expected to reach $8.12 billion, which would be a YOY increase of 43.4% on the quarter. All this in mind, analysts are a bit cautious about Nvidia stock for the time being. For those who may be interested in acquiring a few shares, it may be best to wait til the end of the month, after the release of their earnings report, to be certain it will move favorably towards the end of the year. NVIDIA is a part of the Entrepreneur Index, which tracks some of the largest publicly traded companies founded and run by entrepreneurs. Should you invest $1,000 in NVIDIA right now? Before you consider NVIDIA, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and NVIDIA wasn't on the list. While NVIDIA currently has a "Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. Article by Keala Miles, MarketBeat Updated on May 19, 2022, 5:18 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Investors Run To Cash, S&P 500 Enters Reversal We recently saw a headline that made us ask “what?!?” because it said an uptrend in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) had been confirmed. Our take on the market is that not only has the near-term downtrend in the S&P 500 been confirmed but that a major reversal […] Investors Run To Cash, S&P 500 Enters Reversal We recently saw a headline that made us ask “what?!?” because it said an uptrend in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) had been confirmed. Our take on the market is that not only has the near-term downtrend in the S&P 500 been confirmed but that a major reversal in the market has been confirmed as well. You can blame it on what you want: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation, supply chain hurdles, rising rates, the FOMC, or the threat of recession and you would be basically right. The reason for the reversal is because of earnings and all of those other factors play into the S&P 500’s earnings power. We’ve already been tracking a downturn in the outlook for earnings growth, after this week’s reports from the retail sector we think that trend is going to accelerate and bring the entire market down with it. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Technical Picture Is Clear, The S&P 500 Is In A Downtrend The S&P 500 has been in a downtrend since hitting the all-time high at the turn of the year. That downtrend was confirmed over the past two weeks when the index broke through a major support level to set a new low and then bounce back to confirm resistance at that level. That level is the 4,100 level and the fall was confirmed by the indicators as well. Both the stochastic and the MACD are showing bearish crossovers that have ample room to run which suggests prices will wallow at current levels or move lower. The scary part of this assessment is that the near-term downtrend is part of a much larger and more powerful price pattern that has also been confirmed.   We’ve been tracking a reversal in the S&P 500 since early in the year. The index made a push to new highs that was met by selling and broke the uptrend that had been in place since the pandemic bottom in 2020. At that time, the question was, is this a trend change from up to sideways or a full reversal in prices and it looked, at least for a while, as if up to sideways was the answer. The problem now is that a Head & Shoulders Reversal pattern has formed and the break to new lows confirms it as such. Price action rebounded from the new low but, as mentioned before, the rebound met resistance at the 4,100 level which just happens to be the neckline of the pattern. Where Does The S&P 500 Go From Here? Where the S&P 500 goes from here is a tough call but the trend is definitely downward. The first targets we get are derived from the near-term downtrend. The most recent downtrend began at the 4,550 level and hit support at 4,100 which gives a magnitude of 450. Subtract 450 from 4,100 to get a target near 3,650. That target is coincident with the market consolidation in early 2021 and a viable target for a rebound or bottom to form. In the short to mid-term, the index could fall a little further based on the magnitude of the Head & Shoulders Pattern itself. That pattern is worth 700 points in movement and could take the index down to the 3,400 level. 3,400 is coincident with the 2020 top and consolidation so another good target for a rebound, relief rally, or bottom. If that doesn’t hold, the next target is near the 2,800 level and the long-term uptrend that we’ve been tracking for the last 13 years. It is our opinion that, unless something changes drastically very soon, the S&P 500 will move down to that level. Should you invest $1,000 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust right now? Before you consider SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust wasn't on the list. While SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. Article by Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat Updated on May 19, 2022, 5:28 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Deckers Outdoor Corp. wrapped up a record year with roughly $2 billion in sales of Ugg boots, pushing the company to an earnings beat and a soaring stock price Thursday......»»

Fiscal third quarter revenue grew 29% year over year to $1.4 billion Fiscal third quarter billings grew 40% year over year to $1.8 billion Remaining performance obligation grew 40% year over year to $6.9 billion SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), the global cybersecurity leader, announced today financial results for its fiscal third quarter 2022, ended April 30, 2022. Total revenue for the fiscal third quarter 2022 grew 29% year over year to $1.4 billion, compared with total revenue of $1.1 billion for the fiscal third quarter 2021. GAAP net loss for the fiscal third quarter 2022 was $73.2 million, or $0.74 per diluted share, compared with GAAP net loss of $145.1 million, or $1.50 per diluted share, for the fiscal third quarter 2021. Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal third quarter 2022 was $193.1 million, or $1.79 per diluted share, compared with non-GAAP net income of $139.5 million, or $1.38 per diluted share, for the fiscal third quarter 2021. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP information is contained in the tables below. "We saw strong top-line growth in Q3, which is a testament to our teams' consistent execution in capitalizing on the strong cybersecurity demand trends," said Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. "On the back of this strength across our portfolio, we are again raising our guidance for the year across revenue, billings and earnings per share." "Our drive to deliver strong total shareholder return in Q3 was headlined by our revenue growth, while we also balanced operating margin expansion and free cash flow conversion," said Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer of Palo Alto Networks. "We look forward to continuing this balance as we close out the year and look to FY23." Financial Outlook Palo Alto Networks provides guidance based on current market conditions and expectations. For the fiscal fourth quarter 2022, we expect: Total billings in the range of $2.32 billion to $2.35 billion, representing year over year growth of between 24% and 26%. Total revenue in the range of $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion, representing year over year growth of between 25% and 27%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $2.26 to $2.29, using 106 million to 108 million shares outstanding. For the fiscal year 2022, we are broadly raising guidance and expect: Total billings in the range of $7.106 billion to $7.136 billion, representing year over year growth of between 30% and 31%. Total revenue in the range of $5.481 billion to $5.501 billion, representing year over year growth of approximately 29%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $7.43 to $7.46, using 106 million to 107 million shares. Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 32% to 33%. Guidance for non-GAAP financial measures excludes share-based compensation-related charges (including share-based payroll tax expense), acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements,  non-cash charges related to convertible notes, and related foreign currency gains (losses) and income and other tax effects associated with these items, along with certain non-recurring expenses and certain non-recurring cash flows. We have not reconciled diluted non-GAAP net income per share guidance to GAAP net income (loss) per diluted share or adjusted free cash flow margin guidance to GAAP net cash from operating activities because we do not provide guidance on GAAP net income (loss) or net cash from operating activities and would not be able to present the various reconciling cash and non-cash items between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures because certain items that impact these measures are uncertain or out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, including share-based compensation expense, without unreasonable effort. The actual amounts of such reconciling items will have a significant impact on the company's GAAP net income (loss) per diluted share and GAAP net cash from operating activities. Earnings Call Information Palo Alto Networks will host a video webcast for analysts and investors to discuss the company's fiscal third quarter 2022 results as well as the outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter 2022 today at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time/1:30 p.m. Pacific time. Open to the public, investors may access the webcast, supplemental financial information and earnings slides from the "Investors" section of the company's website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com. A replay will be available three hours after the conclusion of the webcast and archived for one year. Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions including statements regarding our ability to balance future revenue growth with operating margin expansion and free cash flow, and our financial outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter 2022 and fiscal year 2022. There are a significant number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements made in this press release, including: developments and changes in general market, political, economic, and business conditions; the duration and global impact of COVID-19; risks associated with managing our growth; risks associated with new products and subscription and support offerings, including the discovery of software bugs; shifts in priorities or delays in the development or release of new subscription offerings, or the failure to timely develop and achieve market acceptance of new products and subscriptions as well as existing products and subscription and support offerings; rapidly evolving technological developments in the market for security products and subscription and support offerings; our customers' purchasing decisions and the length of sales cycles; our competition; our ability to attract and retain new customers; our ability as an organization to acquire and integrate other companies, products, or technologies in a successful manner; the effects of supply chain constraints and the global chip and component shortages and other factors affecting the manufacture, delivery, and cost of certain of our products; our ability to obtain adequate supply of our products from our third-party manufacturing partners; our debt repayment obligations; and our share repurchase program, which may not be fully consummated or enhance shareholder value, and any share repurchases which could affect the price of our common stock. Additional risks and uncertainties that could affect our financial results are included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on February 22, 2022, which is available on our website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Additional information will also be set forth in other filings that we make with the SEC from time to time. All forward-looking statements in this press release are based on information available to us as of the date hereof, and we do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements provided to reflect events that occur or circumstances that exist after the date on which they were made. Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Other Key Metrics Palo Alto Networks has provided in this press release financial information that has not been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). The company uses these non-GAAP financial measures and other key metrics internally in analyzing its financial results and believes that the use of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are useful to investors as an additional tool to evaluate ongoing operating results and trends, and in comparing the company's financial results with other companies in its industry, many of which present similar non-GAAP financial measures or key metrics. The presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP financial measures and should be read only in conjunction with the company's consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of the company's historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures has been provided in the financial statement tables included in this press release, and investors are encouraged to review these reconciliations. Non-GAAP net income and net income per share, diluted. Palo Alto Networks defines non-GAAP net income as net income (loss) plus share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, gains (losses) related to facility exit, and non-cash charges related to convertible notes. The company also excludes from non-GAAP net income the foreign currency gains (losses) and tax effects associated with these items in order to provide a complete picture of the company's recurring core business operating results. The company defines non-GAAP net income per share, diluted, as non-GAAP net income divided by the weighted-average diluted shares outstanding, which includes the potentially dilutive effect of the company's employee equity incentive plan awards and the company's convertible senior notes outstanding and related warrants, after giving effect to the anti-dilutive impact of the company's note hedge agreements, which reduces the potential economic dilution that otherwise would occur upon conversion of the company's convertible senior notes. Under GAAP, the anti-dilutive impact of the note hedge is not reflected in diluted shares outstanding. The company believes that excluding these items from non-GAAP net income and net income per share, diluted, provides management and investors with greater visibility into the underlying performance of the company's core business operating results, meaning its operating performance excluding these items and, from time to time, other discrete charges that are infrequent in nature, over multiple periods. Billings. Palo Alto Networks defines billings as total revenue plus the change in total deferred revenue, net of acquired deferred revenue, during the period. The company considers billings to be a key metric used by management to manage the company's business and believes billings provides investors with an important indicator of the health and visibility of the company's business because it includes subscription and support revenue, which is recognized ratably over the contractual service period, and product revenue, which is recognized at the time of shipment, provided that all other conditions for revenue recognition have been met. The company considers billings to be a useful metric for management and investors, particularly if sales of subscriptions continue to increase and the company experiences strong renewal rates for subscriptions and support. Investors are cautioned that there are a number of limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics as analytical tools. In particular, the billings metric reported by the company includes amounts that have not yet been recognized as revenue. Additionally, many of the adjustments to the company's GAAP financial measures reflect the exclusion of items that are recurring and will be reflected in the company's financial results for the foreseeable future, such as share-based compensation, which is an important part of Palo Alto Networks employees' compensation and impacts their performance. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures are not based on any standardized methodology prescribed by GAAP, and the components that Palo Alto Networks excludes in its calculation of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from the components that its peer companies exclude when they report their non-GAAP results of operations. Palo Alto Networks compensates for these limitations by providing specific information regarding the GAAP amounts excluded from these non-GAAP financial measures. In the future, the company may also exclude non-recurring expenses and other expenses that do not reflect the company's core business operating results. About Palo Alto Networks Palo Alto Networks, the global cybersecurity leader, is shaping the cloud-centric future with technology that is transforming the way people and organizations operate. Our mission is to be the cybersecurity partner of choice, protecting our digital way of life. We help address the world's greatest security challenges with continuous innovation that seizes the latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, analytics, automation, and orchestration. By delivering an integrated platform and empowering a growing ecosystem of partners, we are at the forefront of protecting tens of thousands of organizations across clouds, networks, and mobile devices. Our vision is a world where each day is safer and more secure than the one before. For more information, visit www.paloaltonetworks.com. Palo Alto Networks and the Palo Alto Networks logo are trademarks of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. in the United States and in jurisdictions throughout the world. All other trademarks, trade names, or service marks used or mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.   Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Preliminary Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended April 30, April 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021.....»»

FY 2022 REVENUE OF $3.150 BILLION, UP 24% VS. FY 2021; UP 48% VS. FY 2020 FY 2022 EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $16.26, UP 21% VS. FY 2021; UP 69% VS. FY 2020 GUIDES FY 2023 REVENUE GROWTH OF 10-11%; EPS RANGE OF $17.40-$18.25 GOLETA, Calif., May 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Deckers Brands (NYSE:DECK), a global leader in designing, marketing, and distributing innovative footwear, apparel, and accessories, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended March 31, 2022. The Company also provided its financial outlook for the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. "Fiscal year 2022 was another record year for Deckers, as we delivered both revenue and earnings per share growth above twenty percent," said Dave Powers, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Over the last two years, our portfolio of brands has added more than one billion dollars of revenue, while making progress towards key long-term strategies, and maintaining top-tier levels of profitability, despite navigating unprecedented disruption across the global supply chain. I am incredibly proud of our performance over the last couple of years, but with the power of our brands and our people, I am even more excited about the opportunities ahead." Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Financial Review (Compared to the Same Period Last Year)  Net sales increased 31.2% to $736.0 million compared to $561.2 million. On a constant currency basis, net sales increased 31.7%. Channel Wholesale net sales increased 37.6% to $448.8 million compared to $326.1 million. Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) net sales increased 22.2% to $287.2 million compared to $235.1 million. Comparable DTC net sales increased 19.3%. Geography Domestic net sales increased 37.4% to $521.0 million compared to $379.2 million. International net sales increased 18.2% to $215.1 million compared to $181.9 million. Gross margin was 48.7% compared to 53.2%.  Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $277.4 million compared to $244.0 million. Operating income was $81.3 million compared to $54.6 million. Diluted earnings per share was $2.51 compared to $1.18. Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Brand Summary (Compared to the Same Period Last Year) UGG® brand net sales increased 24.7% to $374.6 million compared to $300.5 million. HOKA® brand net sales increased 59.7% to $283.5 million compared to $177.5 million. Teva® brand net sales decreased 8.8% to $54.8 million compared to $60.2 million. Sanuk® brand net sales decreased 1.7% to $11.9 million compared to $12.1 million. Other brands, primarily composed of Koolaburra®, net sales increased 2.4% to $11.2 million compared to $10.9 million. Full Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Review (Compared to the Same Period Last Year)  Net sales increased 23.8% to $3.150 billion compared to $2.546 billion. On a constant currency basis, net sales increased 23.2%. Channel Wholesale net sales increased 31.0% to $1.937 billion compared to $1.479 billion. DTC net sales increased 13.8% to $1.214 billion compared to $1.067 billion. Due to the meaningful disruption of our retail store base for closures during the prior fiscal year, we are not reporting a comparable DTC sales metric for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2022. Geography Domestic net sales increased 23.1% to $2.168 billion compared to $1.761 billion. International net sales increased 25.3% to $982.5 million compared to $784.2 million. Gross margin was 51.0% compared to 54.0%.  SG&A expenses were $1.043 billion compared to $869.9 million. Operating income was $564.7 million compared to $504.2 million. Diluted earnings per share was $16.26 compared to $13.47. Full Fiscal Year 2022 Brand Summary (Compared to the Same Period Last Year)  UGG® brand net sales increased 15.4% to $1.982 billion compared to $1.717 billion. HOKA® brand net sales increased 56.1% to $891.6 million compared to $571.2 million. Teva® brand net sales increased 17.3% to $162.7 million compared to $138.8 million. Sanuk® brand net sales increased 3.0% to $43.1 million compared to $41.8 million. Other brands net sales decreased 7.5% to $70.9 million compared to $76.7 million. Balance Sheet (March 31, 2022 as compared to March 31, 2021)  Cash and cash equivalents were $843.5 million compared to $1.089 billion.  Inventories, which include amounts in-transit, were $506.8 million compared to $278.2 million. The Company had no outstanding borrowings. Stock Repurchase Program During the fourth quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 308 thousand shares of its common stock for a total of $90.0 million at an average price paid per share of $292.51. During full fiscal year 2022, the Company repurchased approximately 1.044 million shares of its common stock for a total of $356.7 million at an average price paid per share of $341.77. As of March 31, 2022, the Company had $454.0 million remaining under its stock repurchase authorization. "We have delivered two consecutive years of exceptional revenue growth, with accelerating increases over the prior year of 23.8% and 19.4%, for fiscal years 2022 and 2021, respectively," said Steve Fasching, Chief Financial Officer. "Despite facing significant incremental costs related to supply chain disruption, our teams were able to nimbly respond to these changing market dynamics to manage costs and deliver an operating margin of 17.9% in fiscal year 2022, at the top end of our original guidance range. With our in-demand brands, flexible operating model, and strong balance sheet, Deckers is well positioned to drive continued top-line growth and high levels of profitability." Full Fiscal Year 2023 Outlook for the Twelve Month Period Ending March 31, 2023 The Company's full fiscal year 2023 outlook is forward-looking in nature, reflecting our expectations as of May 19, 2022, and is subject to significant risks and uncertainties that limit our ability to accurately forecast results. This outlook assumes no meaningful changes to the Company's business prospects or risks and uncertainties identified by management that could impact future results, which include but are not limited to: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business and operations, including supply chain disruptions, constraints and related expenses; labor shortages; changes in economic conditions, inflationary pressures, consumer confidence and discretionary spending; and geopolitical tensions. Net sales are expected to be in the range of $3.45 billion to $3.50 billion. Gross margin is expected to be approximately 51.5%. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales are projected to be approximately 34%. Operating margin is expected to be in the range of 17.5% to 18.0%. Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 22% to 23%. Diluted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $17.40 to $18.25. The earnings per share guidance does not assume any impact from additional share repurchases. Non-GAAP Financial Measures In certain instances the Company may present financial measures that were not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (non-GAAP financial measures), including constant currency, to provide information that may assist investors in understanding its financial results and assessing its prospects for future performance. The Company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are important indicators of its operating performance because they exclude items that are unrelated to, and may not be indicative of, its core operating results. The non-GAAP financial measures presented by the Company may ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

THOMASVILLE, Ga., May 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO), producer of Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Tastykake, and other bakery foods, today reported financial results for the company's 16-week first quarter ended April 23, 2022. First Quarter Summary: Compared to the prior year first quarter where applicable Sales increased 10.3% to a quarter-record $1.436 billion. Net income increased 19.4% to $85.6 million. Adjusted net income increased 6.3% to $93.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA(1) increased 2.4% to a quarter-record $165.5 million, representing 11.5% of sales, a 90-basis point decrease. Diluted EPS increased $0.06 to $0.40. Adjusted diluted EPS(1) increased $0.03 to a quarter-record $0.44.  (1) Adjusted for items affecting comparability. See reconciliations of non-GAAP measures in the financial statements following this release.   CEO's Remarks: "We delivered another quarter of record results, reflecting outstanding top line growth and disciplined execution on costs," said Ryals McMullian, president and CEO of Flowers Foods. "Focused implementation of our portfolio strategy drove market share gains for our leading brands, as consumers continued to gravitate to these differentiated products despite widespread inflation. To sustain this robust momentum, we intend to invest in marketing and advertising, introduce new and innovative products, and expand production capacity. "We are adjusting our outlook for fiscal 2022 to account for improved pricing, higher-than-expected inflation, and supply chain disruptions," he continued. "To mitigate resource shortages and volatile commodity prices, which increased beyond our initial expectations, we continue to execute on efficiency initiatives and we have implemented a price increase that will become effective in the second quarter. The resulting price lag, combined with the supply chain disruptions, is expected to impact EPS by a total of five cents in the second and third quarters. We are encouraged by the strong underlying fundamentals of our business, and our industry-leading team remains dedicated to enhancing long-term shareholder value." For the 52-week Fiscal 2022, the Company Expects: Sales in the range of approximately $4.764 billion to $4.850 billion, representing an increase of approximately 10.0% to 12.0% compared to the prior year period. Prior guidance called for sales of $4.660 billion to $4.695 billion, representing an increase of approximately 7.6% to 8.4% compared to the prior year period. Adjusted EPS(1) in the range of approximately $1.20 to $1.30, compared to prior guidance of $1.25 to $1.35. The company's outlook is based on the following assumptions: Depreciation and amortization in the range of $135 million to $145 million Net interest expense of approximately $7 million An effective tax rate in the range of 24.0% to 24.5% Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 213.5 million shares Capital expenditures in the range of $150 million to $160 million, with $60 million to $70 million related to our ERP upgrade   Matters Affecting Comparability: Reconciliation of Earnings per Share to Adjusted Earnings per Share For the 16-Week Period Ended For the 16-Week Period Ended April 23, 2022 April 24, 2021 Net income per diluted common share $ 0.40 $ 0.34 Loss on inferior ingredients — NM Business process improvement consulting costs 0.03 0.02 Impairment of assets NM — Loss on extinguishment of debt — 0.06 Adjusted net income per diluted common share $ 0.44 $ 0.41 NM - not meaningful. Certain amounts may not add due to rounding.   Consolidated First Quarter Operating Highlights Compared to the prior year first quarter where applicable Sales increased 10.3% to $1.436 billion, surpassing the previous record first quarter results in 2020 that were influenced by the pandemic. Percentage point change in sales attributed to: Pricing/mix: 13.5% Volume: -3.2% Branded retail sales increased $94.4 million or 11.0% to $956.1 million, store branded retail sales increased $11.1 million or 6.9% to $173.6 million, while non-retail and other sales increased $28.2 million or 10.2% to $306.2 million. Branded retail sales increased primarily due to higher prices intended to offset inflationary pressures, and improved promotional efficiency, partially offset by volume declines in branded cake items partly due to supply constraints. Store branded retail sales increased primarily due to higher prices intended to offset inflationary pressures, partially offset by volume declines as consumer purchasing continued to shift to branded retail products. Non-retail and other sales increased primarily due to higher prices intended to offset inflationary pressures, partially offset by volume declines in fast food and co-manufactured items, supply chain disruptions, and targeted sales rationalization to improve profitability. Materials, supplies, labor, and other production costs (exclusive of depreciation and amortization) were 50.5% of sales, a 110-basis point increase. These costs increased as a percentage of sales due to higher ingredient and packaging costs, partly offset by higher sales and reduced outside purchases. Selling, distribution and administrative (SD&A) expenses were 38.6% of sales, a 10-basis point increase, impacted by incremental consulting costs and transportation cost inflation, largely offset by favorable price/mix, lower workforce-related costs, and increased scrap dough income. Excluding matters affecting comparability, adjusted SD&A expenses were 38.0% of sales, a 20-basis point decrease from the prior year period. Depreciation and amortization (D&A) expenses were $43.4 million, or 3.0% of sales, a 20-basis point decrease. Net income increased 19.4% to $85.6 million. Adjusted net income increased 6.3% to $93.1 million, helped by a discrete tax benefit and lower interest expense. Adjusted EBITDA increased 2.4% to a quarter-record $165.5 million, representing 11.5% of sales, a 90-basis point decrease. Cash Flow, Capital Allocation, and Capital Return For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, cash flow from operating activities increased by $26.2 million to $124.2 million, capital expenditures increased $23.2 million to $50.5 million, and dividends paid to shareholders increased $4.2 million to $46.7 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $205.1 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2022. There are 5.4 million shares that remain authorized for repurchase under the company's current share repurchase plan. The company expects to continue to execute share repurchases from time to time under this plan. Pre-Recorded Management Remarks and Question and Answer Webcast In conjunction with this release, pre-recorded management remarks and a supporting slide presentation will be posted to the Flowers Foods website. The company will host a live question and answer webcast at 8:30 a.m. (Eastern) on May 20, 2022. The pre-recorded remarks and the webcast can be accessed at flowersfoods.com/investors, where it will be archived. About Flowers Foods Headquartered in Thomasville, Ga., Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States with 2021 sales of $4.3 billion. Flowers operates bakeries across the country that produce a wide range of bakery products. Among the company's top brands are Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, and Tastykake. Learn more at www.flowersfoods.com. FLO-CORP   FLO-IR Forward-Looking Statements Statements contained in this filing and certain other written or oral statements made from time to time by Flowers Foods, Inc. (the "company", "Flowers Foods", "Flowers", "us", "we", or "our") and its representatives that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our future financial condition and results of operations and the ultimate impact of the novel strain of coronavirus ("COVID-19") on our business, results of operations and financial condition and are often identified by the use of words and phrases such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "should," "will," "would," "is likely to," "is expected to" or "will continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions we believe are reasonable. Forward-looking statements are based on current information and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain factors that may cause actual results, performance, liquidity, and achievements to differ materially from those projected are discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K (the "Form 10-K") and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC') and may include, but are not limited to, (a) unexpected changes in any of the following: (1) general economic and business conditions; (2) the competitive setting in which we operate, including advertising or promotional strategies by us or our competitors, as well as changes in consumer demand; (3) interest rates and other terms available to us on our borrowings; (4) supply chain conditions and any related impact on energy and raw materials costs and availability and hedging counter-party risks; (5) relationships with or increased costs related to our employees and third-party service providers; (6) laws and regulations (including environmental and health-related issues); and (7) accounting standards or tax rates in the markets in which we operate, (b) the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and future responses and/or measures taken in response thereto, including, but not limited to, new and emerging variants of the virus and the efficacy and distribution of vaccines, which are highly uncertain and are difficult to predict, (c) our ability to manage the demand, supply and operational challenges with the actual or perceived effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; (d) the loss or financial instability of any significant customer(s), including as a result of product recalls or safety concerns related to our products, (e) changes in consumer behavior, trends and preferences, including health and whole grain trends, and the movement toward more inexpensive store branded products, (f) the level of success we achieve in developing and introducing new products and entering new markets, (g) our ability to implement new technology and customer requirements as required, (h) our ability to operate existing, and any new, manufacturing lines according to schedule, (i) our ability to implement and achieve our environmental, social, and governance ("ESG") goals in accordance with suppliers, regulations, and customers; (j) our ability to execute our business strategies which may involve, among other things, (1) the ability to realize the intended benefits of planned or contemplated acquisitions, dispositions or joint ventures, (2) the deployment of new systems (e.g., our enterprise resource planning ("ERP") system), distribution channels and technology, and (3) an enhanced organizational structure, (k) consolidation within the baking industry and related industries, (l) changes in pricing, customer and consumer reaction to pricing actions (including decreased volumes), and the pricing environment among competitors within the industry, (m) our ability to adjust pricing to offset, or partially offset, inflationary pressure on the cost of our products; (n) disruptions in our direct-store-delivery distribution model, including litigation or an adverse ruling by a court or regulatory or governmental body, or other regulatory developments, that could affect the independent contractor classifications of the independent distributor partners, (n) increasing legal complexity and legal proceedings that we are or may become subject to, (p) labor shortages and turnover or increases in employee and employee-related costs, (q) the credit, business, and legal risks associated with independent distributor partners and customers, which operate in the highly competitive retail food and foodservice industries, (r) any business disruptions due to political instability, pandemics, armed hostilities (including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine), incidents of terrorism, natural disasters, labor strikes or work stoppages, technological breakdowns, product contamination, product recalls or safety concerns related to our products, or the responses to or repercussions from any of these or similar events or conditions and our ability to insure against such events, (s) the failure of our information technology ("IT") systems to perform adequately, including any interruptions, intrusions, cyber-attacks or security breaches of such systems or risks associated with the planned implementation of the upgrade of our ERP system; and (t) the potential impact of climate change on the company, including physical and transition risks, higher regulatory and compliance costs, reputational risks, and availability of capital on attractive terms. The foregoing list of important factors does not include all such factors, nor necessarily present them in order of importance. In addition, you should consult other disclosures made by the company (such as in our other filings with the SEC or in company press releases) for other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by the company. Refer to Part I, Item 1A., Risk Factors, of the Form 10-K, Part II, Item 1A., Risk Factors of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended April 23, 2022 and subsequent filing with the SEC for additional information regarding factors that could affect the company's results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as they speak only as of the date made and are inherently uncertain. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update such statements, except as required by law. You are advised, however, to consult any further public disclosures by the company (such as in our filings with the SEC or in company press releases) on related subjects. Information Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures The company prepares its consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). However, from time to time, the company may present in its public statements, press releases and SEC filings, non-GAAP financial measures such as, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization, free cash flow, and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. The company's definitions of these non-GAAP measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. These non-GAAP measures should be considered supplemental to, and not a substitute for, financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The company defines EBITDA as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Earnings are net income. The company believes that EBITDA is a useful tool for managing the operations of its business and is an indicator of the company's ability to incur and service indebtedness and generate free cash flow. EBITDA is used as the primary performance measure in the company's 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. Furthermore, pursuant to the terms of our credit facility, EBITDA is used to determine the company's compliance with certain financial covenants. The company also believes that EBITDA measures are commonly reported and widely used by investors and other interested parties as measures of a company's operating performance and debt servicing ability because EBITDA measures assist in comparing performance on a consistent basis without regard to depreciation or amortization, which can vary significantly depending upon accounting methods and non-operating factors (such as historical cost). EBITDA is also a widely-accepted financial indicator of a company's ability to incur and service indebtedness. EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to (a) income from operations or net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance; (b) cash flows provided by operating, investing and financing activities (as determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of the company's ability to meet its cash needs; or (c) any other indicator of performance or liquidity that has been determined in accordance with GAAP. The company defines adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted EPS, adjusted income tax expense and adjusted SD&A, respectively, excluding the impact of asset impairment charges, Project Centennial consulting costs, business process improvement costs, lease terminations, legal settlements, acquisition-related costs, and pension plan settlements. The company believes that these measures, when considered together with its GAAP financial results, provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of its business operating results, including underlying trends, by excluding the effects of certain charges. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The company believes that free cash flow provides investors a better understanding of the company's liquidity position. The company defines net debt as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Net debt to EBITDA is used as a measure of financial leverage employed by the company. Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization is used as a performance measure to provide additional transparent information regarding our results of operations on a consolidated and segment basis. Changes in depreciation and amortization are separately discussed and include depreciation and amortization for materials, supplies, labor and other production costs and operating activities. Presentation of gross margin includes depreciation and amortization in the materials, supplies, labor and other production costs according to GAAP. Our method of presenting gross margin excludes the depreciation and amortization components, as discussed above. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure.   Flowers Foods, Inc.  Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (000's omitted) April 23, 2022 January 1, 2022 Assets      Cash and cash equivalents $ 205,147 $ 185,871      Other current assets 586,276 531,154      Property, plant and equipment, net 816,466 798,728      Right-of-use leases, net 294,111.....»»

Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ: PANW) shares are trading higher in Thursday's after-hours session after the company reported better-than-expected financial results and raised guidance. Palo Alto said fiscal third-quarter revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $1.39 billion, which beat the $1.36-billion estimate, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The cybersecurity company reported quarterly earnings of $1.79 per share, which ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ: AMAT) shares are trading lower in Thursday's after-hours session after the company reported worse-than-expected financial results and issued earnings guidance below analyst estimates. Applied Materials said fiscal second-quarter revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $6.25 billion, which came in below the $6.37-billion ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Adagio Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ADGI) said it secured manufacturing capacity with third parties to produce its SARS CoV-2 antibody treatment for clinical trials in anticipation of US Food and Drug Administration and other regulations. The Waltham, MA-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focuses on discovering, developing and commercializing antibody-based solutions for infectious diseases with pandemic potential. Adagio has […] Adagio Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ADGI) said it secured manufacturing capacity with third parties to produce its SARS CoV-2 antibody treatment for clinical trials in anticipation of US Food and Drug Administration and other regulations. The Waltham, MA-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focuses on discovering, developing and commercializing antibody-based solutions for infectious diseases with pandemic potential. Adagio has a portfolio of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, including multiple, non-competing, broadly neutralizing antibodies with distinct binding epitopes, led by ADG20. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Adagio Therapeutics' IPO Adagio has traveled a rough road since its August 2021 $17 initial public offering. The shares debuted with a roughly 25% gain, climbing to $78.82 amid analyst optimism which drove demand. The bubble burst, though, and the shares began a long decline to their current roughly $3 a share. That's an 86% decline from the shares' high. The shares spiked briefly in November when Adagio said ADG20 showed effectiveness against Omicron. Retail investors greeted the news by opening their wallets to buy. Adagio shares climbed 629 positions on the Fintel Retail Ownership leaderboard and currently sit at the 119th spot. We included a chart from ADGI's Retail Ownership page below: Buyers also digested the company's earnings from Friday when the company reported a 93 cents a share loss first quarter loss, a blistering 30 cents below Wall Street analysts' average estimate. Research and Development expenses rose to $92 million, compared to $34 million for the prior year. The firm reported cash and cash equivalents of $532 million on the 31st of March and management expects total cash and equivalents will continue to fund the company into the 2024's second half. The company paused its clinical trials earlier after early results against the Covid 19 omicron variant. Adagio shares carry the risk of many early-stage biotech firms; running out of money. Investors often balk at funding untested product development. However, its current cash balance exceeds its market capitalization and provides an operating cushion and share price support. According to Fintel's Put/Call Ratio for ADGI, which indicates market sentiment for the underlying shares, the stock has a score of 0.42 The Put/Call Ratio shows the total number of disclosed open put option positions divided by the number of open call options. Since puts are generally a bearish bet and calls are a bullish bet, put/call ratios greater than 1 indicate a bearish sentiment, and ratios less than one indicate a bullish sentiment. We a chart of this ratio and how it has behaved over the last three months: Interestingly, the stock also sports a Fintel Short Squeeze Score of 86.61, which places it in the top 5% of our 5,500 screened companies. The Short Squeeze Score uses a sophisticated, multifactor quantitative model that identifies companies with the highest risk of experiencing a short squeeze. The scoring model uses a combination of short interest, float, short borrow fee rates, and other metrics. The number ranges from 0 to 100, with higher numbers indicating a higher risk of a short squeeze relative to its peers and 50 being the average. The consensus analyst rating for the shares is "underweight." Article by Ben Ward, Fintel Updated on May 19, 2022, 4:31 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Worse-than-expected earnings results from the biggest publicly traded companies are poised to become another headwind, says Capital Economics’ Thomas Mathews......»»

Applied Materials Inc. shares declined in the extended session Thursday after the semiconductor-manufacturing equipment maker missed on earnings, revenue and its forecast and pointed at continuing supply-chain issues......»»

Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ: AMAT) shares are trading lower in Thursday's after-hours session after the company reported worse-than-expected financial results and issued earnings guidance below analyst estimates. read more.....»»

Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) shares tanked on Tuesday after the company’s quarterly earnings missed Street expectations by a wide margin, mainly due to rising fuel costs and higher inventory levels. Latest Ratings for WMT DateFirmActionFromTo Feb 2022Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight Feb 2022Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform Feb 2022Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy View More Analyst Ratings for WMT View the Latest Analyst Ratings read more.....»»

Would you like to have an extra $1,000 per month? Even if you’re a minimalist, I think most of us would jump at this opportunity. And, for good reason. An extra grand a month could totally transform your life. In addition to paying off financial debt, you could also invest in your retirement or buy […] Would you like to have an extra $1,000 per month? Even if you’re a minimalist, I think most of us would jump at this opportunity. And, for good reason. An extra grand a month could totally transform your life. In addition to paying off financial debt, you could also invest in your retirement or buy life insurance with this extra cash. Or, with your newfound financial freedom, you could finally make much-needed home repairs, take a class to enhance your skills, or take that vacation you’ve been talking about for years. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more And, considering that 56% of Americans can’t pay for a $1,000 emergency expense, this money could be used to build a considerable emergency fund. However, you’re not going to suddenly end up with $1,000 per month — unless you inherit money or win the lottery. It has to be earned. Now, your first thought could be that you should find a second job. If you’re facing a financial crisis or are working toward a short-term financial goal, this is the right move. On the other hand, you may find this takes you away from your family, friends, or hobbies. Plus, juggling both a full-time job and an internship can be exhausting. Consequently, if your performance or productivity plummets, you could in essence risk your primary source of income. With that said, what are your realistic options for earning an extra grand each month? One of my favorites is through a passive income. What is a Passive Income? Making passive income requires little effort on your part. Often, passive income is referred to as ‘earning money while you sleep’ because it requires almost no involvement. This isn’t the case in every situation, however. However, hopefully, you’ve got the jest on what a passive income is. However, there is a myth about passive income that needs to be busted. Passive income is assumed to be so easy that anyone can earn it within the weekend. Once that’s done, you just sit back and wait for the money to come following in. Truth be told, a lot of work needs to be done upfront. Your passive income sources still need to be updated and maintained even after the initial legwork is completed. One example is blogging. Once it’s up and running and producing a steady revenue stream, it can make a lot of money. But, building a blog to that level takes a lot of effort. And, even if you reach that level, it still needs to be managed. If anything, it’s semi-passive. Although this is an excellent income source, it is not really passive. But, that’s not true with dividends. What is a Dividend (And Why They Rock)? If you want a truly passive income, then let me introduce you to my good friend dividends. For those who aren’t acquainted with my friend here, dividends are payments companies make to shareholders as a way of sharing profits. Investors earn a return on stock investments through dividends, which are paid on a regular basis. Let me also add that not all stocks pay dividends. You should choose dividend stocks if you want to invest for dividends, however. All right, that’s great. What makes dividends a passive income though? Again, most passive income sources will still need a little TLC every now and then. I already talked about blogging. But, property rentals are another example of a semi-passive income. If you don’t maintain your rental, it’s going to depreciate and become loss appealing to renters. In the current era of exceptionally low interest rates, dividend income is in a league of its own. It is possible without any effort to create a portfolio of stocks that generates a steady return of 3%-4% per year. There is no better example of a truly passive investment today than that. Now, let me be real. To reach the desired level of income takes a lot of capital. If you invest wisely, however, you can earn a generous income — even $1000 per month in dividends. And, as soon as it’s up and running, you won’t have to lift a finger to get it going. Besides being a legitimate passive income, I’m a big fan of dividends for the following reasons. Capital appreciation. Even though I’m talking about dividends, dividend stocks can also generate capital appreciation. After all, they’re stocks, and the value of stocks tends to go up over time. If you’re lost, let’s take Pepsi as an example. Right now, the stock pays a dividend of almost 3% per year. The current share price is about $172. But if you purchased the stock 10 years ago? You could have done so at less than $65 per share. The stock value has more than doubled in 10 years, and you have earned 3% in passive income over that time. In other words, dividend stocks have the advantage of not only providing a steady income. But also the benefit of capital appreciation. By doing so, you can protect your investment from inflation and also make sure it grows over the long run. As such, dividend stocks are among one of the very best investments you can make, and are one of the strongest recommendations for the foundation of your portfolio. Dividend stocks should be a core investment, even if you own other investments. Dividend stocks vs. growth stocks. Now, I gotta quickly fill you in on dividend stocks. Unlike growth stocks, dividend stocks tend to rise less in price than growth stocks. Why? As their name implies, growth stocks are all about growth. Most pay little dividends if any at all. All profits are instead reinvested into the business to expand revenue and profit. In fact, over the past decade, growth stocks that don’t pay dividends have produced some of the best results. The most notable example is Amazon (AMZN). In the past 10 years, its stock price increased from $170 per share to more than $3,000 now, but it doesn’t pay a dividend. You won’t get income from these stocks until the day you sell them, so you may want to hold a number of them in your portfolio. The appreciated value will come at that point. But, for now, it’s just paper gain. In short, investing in dividend stocks is a better choice if you’re looking for passive income. Favorable tax treatment. Dividend-paying stocks offer tax benefits in addition to yields above those of interest-bearing securities. Dividends are treated as ordinary income by the Internal Revenue Service. If qualified for the long-term capital gains tax rate, however, they aren’t taxed. Dividends on the stock must be issued by a US corporation or by a foreign corporation with stock trading on a US exchange in order to qualify as a qualified dividend. To qualify for dividends on a stock, you must also own it for at least 60 days. For qualified dividends the tax rates are as follows: If you have a taxable income of less than $78,750, you pay 0%. If you’re single and earn more than $78,750, but less than $434,550, or if you’re married filing jointly, or if you’re a qualified widow, you’re eligible for a 15% tax exemption. Taxes are charged at a rate of 20% of your taxable income that exceeds these thresholds. In any case, if you hold dividend stocks in qualified tax-deferred retirement plans, the lowered (or nonexistent) taxes won’t matter. Holding them in a taxable investment account will give you a big tax advantage though. Where to Find Dividend Stocks Dividend-paying stocks tend to be issued by large corporations with established financial records. Or at least those that pay higher yields consistently over time. They are also commonly known in most cases. Either they have popular products or services, or they’ve been around for a long time and have built a strong reputation. They tend to be popular with investors, too, due to all those qualities and their dividends. Now, when it comes to dividend stocks, companies can choose between different dividend types. The most common types include: Cash dividends. These are the most common dividends. Companies typically deposit cash dividends directly into shareholders’ brokerage accounts. Stock dividends. In addition to paying cash, companies can also share additional stock with investors. Dividend reinvestment programs (DRIPs). With DRIPs, dividends are reinvested into the company’s stock, often at a discount, so investors receive their dividends back sooner. Special dividends. Shareholders receive these dividends when their common stock goes up in value, but they do not recur. When a company has accumulated profits over years but does not need them at the moment, it will issue a special dividend. Preferred dividends. The dividends paid to the owners of preferred stock. Stocks that are preferred function less like stocks and more like bonds. Most preferred stock dividends are paid quarterly, but unlike dividends on common stock, they are typically fixed. With that out of the way, let me go over the three basic ways to invest in dividend stocks. Start with dividend aristocrats. At present, all stocks in the S&P 500 index offer a yield of 1.37%. To begin, you might want to focus on stocks that are paying even higher dividends. Stock screener software can certainly assist with finding those companies. But, there’s a much easier method. You can find many of the best and most stable dividend stocks on a list called Dividend Aristocrats, which includes some of the highest-dividend paying stocks. At the moment, the list includes 65 companies. In order to be considered a Dividend Aristocrat, a company must meet specific criteria. Among these criteria are: At least 25 straight years of increasing dividends to shareholders. An established, large company is generally listed on the S&P 500, rather than one that is fast-growing. The company must have a market capitalization of at least $3 billion. The value of daily share trades for the three months prior to the rebalancing date must have averaged $5 million. However, just because a stock is a Dividend Aristocrat doesn’t automatically make it a good investment. There is no guarantee that a company is permanently on the list just because it is on the list. The list is usually altered every year, as some companies are added and others drop. Dividend aristocrats: What to watch out for. In the case of Dividend Aristocrats, two factors need to be considered: The ratio of dividends paid out. This is the percentage of net profits a company pays out to shareholders in dividends. It is unlikely that the current dividend is sustainable if this number approaches or exceeds 100%. The optimal dividend payout ratio is between 50% and 60%. A dividend yield that is excessive. A dividend yield of 3% to 4% is the average for Dividend Aristocrats. In some cases, higher pay may be due to a company’s share price falling, such as 6%, 8%, or more. This could indicate a company is in distress. Either situation can indicate a dividend reduction is a real possibility. If that happens, not only will your dividend yield be reduced, but the price of the stock will almost certainly fall. High dividend exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investing in ETFs can be a good alternative to holding individual stocks. For example, you can invest in dividend-paying ETFs. Examples include: Vanguard High-Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) – currently yields 2.99%, with an average return of 10.45% over the past decade. SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) – has an overall return of 10.23% over the past ten years and a dividend yield of 2.91%. Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) – pays dividends of 3.69%, and has returned 14.61 percent over the past 9 years (founded in October 2011). These three funds not only show double-digit returns for the past decade but also have current yields much higher than interest-bearing investments. Although you might not become wealthy in the way that high-flying growth stocks do, these funds provide steady, reliable returns. Long-term investors should consider this kind of investment as the centerpiece of their portfolios. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Essentially, REITs are mutual funds that invest in real estate instead of stocks. However, not any kind of real estate will do. Real estate investment trusts invest mostly in commercial properties, including office buildings, retail space, warehouses, and big apartment buildings. A minimum of 90% of their income must be distributed to shareholders as dividends as well. The net rental income and the capital appreciation distributions of sold properties make up this portion. For simplicity, dividends are usually paid on a monthly basis by REITs. Here are some dividend-paying REITs to consider: Brookfield Property REIT (BPY) – current dividend yield of 7.54%. Kimco Realty Corp (KIM) – current dividend yield of 3.26%. Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) – current dividend yield of 6.59%. Bear in mind, however, that REITs have not had good long-term performance in the past few years. In spite of paying consistently high dividends, both Brookfield Property REIT and Kimco Realty Corp have experienced major share price declines over the past decade. On the flip side, Brandywine Realty Trust showed the best capital appreciation, holding constant over the past decade. Where to Invest in Dividend Stocks Want to earn a passive income with dividends? The following investment platforms allow you to invest in dividend stocks or high dividend ETFs. As an added perk, each gives you the option of commission-free investment in stocks or ETFs. Robinhood On either your computer or your mobile device, you can trade stocks and ETFs using the Robinhood app. This is also one of the only investment apps that offer trading options as well as cryptocurrency. In spite of the fact that Robinhood is primarily designed for self-directed investors, it provides sufficient company information to identify dividend stocks and track them. Dividend yield, price-earnings ratio, and 52-week high and low prices all fall into this category. The company is currently giving you the chance to earn up to $500 in free stocks by referring friends who open accounts on the app. A stock can be worth anywhere from $2.50 to $200. But, come on. That’s free money just for signing up. Webull Webull works a lot like Robinhood. This company offers commission-free trading of stocks, ETFs, and options, and it has mobile trading capabilities. If you’re on the move constantly, then this is the platform for you. Webull does not require a minimum initial investment. But funds are required for investing. Moreover, it does offer both traditional and Roth IRA accounts, which makes it a better alternative to Robinhood. The reason dividend stocks are ideal for retirement accounts is that they provide long-term growth in addition to income. You will also receive interest on any invested cash held in your account at Webull. M1 Finance Unlike Robinhood and WeBull, M1 Finance allows you to purchase stocks through portfolios called “pies,” which are comprised of many stocks and/or ETFs. There are pre-built pies available, but you can customize your own with the stocks and ETFs you want. If you prefer, you can make a pie out of each of your favorite Dividend Aristocrats, or even pick all 65 stocks. It’s entirely up to you how many pies you want. Dividend Aristocrats can be held in one account, growth stocks in another, or sector ETFs in another. When you have created one or more pies, M1 Finance provides you with another advantage. Your pie will be managed robo-advisor-style, with periodic rebalancing to make sure your allocations remain on target, and even dividends reinvested. You can then sit back and watch your investment grow once you’ve selected your stocks or funds. Ah. The best kind of passive income you could ever ask for. How to Build a Portfolio That Will Make $1,000 Per Month in Dividends Sample Dividend Portfolio For new and small investors, this is a significant barrier. I mean you’d need about $400,000 with a yield of 3% to make $1,000 per month in dividends. But how do you get to $400,000? To begin, let’s take a look at things from a different perspective. Investing in dividends is, by definition, a long-term endeavor. The goal isn’t growth, and most certainly not explosive growth. Rather it’s all about a steady income that hopefully will appreciate over time. So, you’ll need patience and constant investing if you want to make it a long-term investment. The first step, then, is to consider the amount you plan to invest and set up a regular schedule. Suppose, for example, you buy 10 shares of a particular stock each month, or invest $500 per month. Over time, you can gradually add many thousands of dollars to your investments every year. This results in a positive outcome. With your monthly purchases, you will be able to utilize dollar-cost averaging. A method like that greatly eliminates the impact of stock price fluctuations or the timing of the end of the market. Every month, you will just invest the same amount. And, best of you all, you just let compound interest work its magic. If you are investing $500 per month in a growing portfolio of dividend stocks with a 10% return, including dividends and capital appreciation, you would be investing $6,000 per year. Investing at the same level for 21 years will mean you’ll have over $400,000 — even if you never increase it. Dividend Reinvestment Plans commonly called DRIPs, make this possible. These are often offered by the brokerage firm where you hold the stocks. With DRIPs, dividends are used to buy more shares of the same company automatically. The Bottom Line Dividend stocks don’t get the same buzz as growth stocks do. The thing is, they’re the kind of investments that build both permanent wealth and passive income. What’s not to like about that? For retirement portfolios, dividend stocks are especially enticing. Investing in these funds will not only allow you to build wealth over decades but will also provide a steady flow of income when you retire. As the stock prices rise in value over time, you can use the dividend income to cover living expenses. You can choose to receive $2,000, $3,000, or even $5,000 in dividends per month, even though I have been talking about $1,000. You’ll need a much broader portfolio for that. However, if you are planning to become wealthy or retire with a seven-figure account, you might as well earn a decent income while you’re at it. To build a portfolio large enough to generate $1,000, or more, per month in dividends, you must combine regular contributions, dividend reinvestment, and capital appreciation. Article by Jeff Rose, Due About the Author Jeff Rose is an Iraqi Combat Veteran and founder of Good Financial Cents. He teaches people wealth hacking. He is a frequent on CNBC, Forbes, Nasdaq and many other publications. He is author of the book "Soldier of Finance: Take Charge of Your Money and Invest in your Future" where he teaches how he escaped from $20,000 in credit card debt to a life of wealth. Updated on May 19, 2022, 3:58 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Massive Momo Shuffle May Mean More Tech-Wrecks & Bank-Beatdowns To Come As if the market didn't need more sand kicked in its eye, a rebalance of a major quant strategy could put more technical selling pressure on tech and financial names as they suffer. BlackRock’s iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (ticker MTUM) is facing its latest semi-annual rebalance, with the fund’s underlying index due to start the process next week. Momentum names have been under pressure in the last few days as Value caught a bid... Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey estimates that a whopping 75% of the smart-beta product’s holdings will be turned over in favor of sectors that gain from elevated inflation like value and energy, at the expense of technology names. At the same economically sensitive companies like banks will likely be slashed in favor of defensives like health care. “Our preliminary estimates indicate a wholesale renovation,” Harvey wrote in a note. “Momentum holdings are expected to re-align with value and take on old-school defensive traits: lower price volatility, more stable earnings, larger size, and steadier dividends.” This sector shuffle will likely lower the overall volatility of the ETF. As the following chart of sector vols shows, while an increase in Energy's allocation will raise overall vol, a reduction in Tech and Financials will cut it and adding more 'low vol' Staples and Utes will significantly lower the overall volatility in the fund. A look at the S&P's implied correlation offers some more insight. A rising implied correlation suggests the index vol is rising considerably more than the individual names in the index. But given that VIX has not been rising dramatically, this suggests a notable dispersion among the individual names (or sectors) is already occurring. Finally, we consider what happens next? Last year's rebalance followed a similar path into the shuffle, then ramped after... We could see a similar reaction as traders reach for something more 'stable'. “Post-rebalance MTUM will have a lot in common with low-volatility funds, based on our analysis, with an expected 56% of MTUM’s projected weighting falling into the lowest-volatility quintile of the Russell 1000,” Christopher Cainand Athanasios Psarofagis wrote in research last week. Is this the turning point in Energy vs Tech... just like at the DotCom Bust? But, given the relatively strong correlation with the broad market, it is likely more a relative, than absolute, bet to buy the momo dip. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 14:40.....»»

Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A "Recession Manual" To Clients Gradually we are getting to the point where the tire hits the road. Now that Wall Street is convinced that hawkish global central banks (the top risk in the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey) will spark a global recession (the second highest risk in the FMS)... ... and as a result, peak inflation is now consensus with a whopping net 68% of respondents - a record high - expect inflation rates to fall in the coming quarters... ... it seems that fears of stagflation are gradually giving way to something just as concerning: a global recession.  Of course, a global recession is not good for Wall Street business nor stock prices, which is why Wall Street was bound to stage a spirited defense against the reality that a recession has already started, at least until the NBER makes the current recession official, and is why we get defensive articles such as this one in Bloomberg from this morning: "Goldman, JPMorgan Strategists See Recession Fears as Overblown"... ... although one could be forgiven to take such pro-establishment propaganda seriously any more when a quick google search reveals farcical humor such as this from October. So realizing that most of its clients are sophisticated enough to see through its "base case" bullish, Goldman (if not JPMorgan) has already started setting the stage for what is coming, and two days after publishing a list of 20 stocks that should thrive in the "coming recession", Goldman has quietly started handing out a "Recession Manual" for US stocks (available to professional subscribers) to clients. To be sure, it's a recession which Goldman is pretty certain won't happen (if only not to piss off the Biden admin): as Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin hedges in the second sentence of the report, "our economists estimate a 35% probability that the US economy will enter a recession during the next two years and believe the yield curve is pricing a similar likelihood of a contraction." And yet, despite Goldman's best efforts to mitigate the painfully obvious endgame, the bank goes on to admit that rotations within the US equity market indicate that investors are pricing elevated odds of a downturn compared with the strength of recent economic data. One such place is the relative performance of cyclical stocks vs. defensive stocks which has declined by 17% since January (-19% vs. -2%). The relative performance of these two factors has closely tracked the level of the ISM index for more than a decade. The ISM currently stands at 55, but the relative performance of cyclicals vs. defensives would imply a level below 50, i.e. a contraction and thus, a recession. Additionally, Kostin reveals that dividend futures market implies S&P 500 dividends will decline by nearly 5% in 2023 (this matters because during the last 60 years, S&P 500 dividends have not declined outside of a recession). In other words, even though Goldman says that "a recession is not inevitable", it also admits that "clients are constantly asking what to expect from equities in the event of a recession." So what should Goldman clients expect? In its report, Goldman discusses how S&P 500 price, earnings, valuations, and sector and factor performance have fared in past recessions. And while there is a lot of information in the full report, we take a more detailed look at some of the report highlights starting with... Price: Across 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 index has contracted from peak to trough by a median of 24%. A decline of this magnitude from the S&P 500 peak of nearly 4800 in January 2022 would bring the S&P 500 to approximately 3650 (11% below current levels). The average decline of 30% would reduce the S&P 500 to 3360 (-18% from today). Timing: Across the same 12 experiences since WWII, the equity market has begun to price a recession on average 7 months prior to the official start of the recession per NBER’s designation. In all but one instance, the sequence of events was the same: The market peaked prior to the recession and then bottomed prior to the end of the recession. As an aside, the 2000 recession was the only experience that departed from this pattern. Back then, the market continued to decline well after the economic recession ended, troughing a full 8 months after the recession ended and a full 30 months after its pre-recession peak. Labor Market: According to Goldman, bottom of the equity market has generally exhibited a relationship with the peak in weekly jobless claims. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has reached its local trough within weeks of the peak in weekly jobless claims. In most experiences, the market bottomed just before jobless claims reached their peak. That may be concerning because while claims just hit a 4 month high, at 218K, they have a long way to go to get back to historical average not to mention the records hit during the covid crash. Earnings: Since 1948, S&P 500 earnings have dropped from peak to trough around recessions by a median of 13%. EPS have recovered by a median of 17% four quarters after troughing. In terms of timing, recessions since 1990 provide a guide for the path of EPS revisions around a recession. During the last four recessions, the typical revision to consensus EPS estimates during the 6 months prior to the start of a recession has ranged from -6% to -18%, with a median of -10%. During the 6 months following the start of the recession, analysts reduced EPS estimates by an additional 13%. During the 12-month period surrounding the start of a recession, analysts reduced estimates by a median of 22%. Valuation: The S&P 500 forward P/E multiple has contracted by a median of 21% between its pre-recession peak and its eventual trough. During the typical recession since 1980, the index P/E multiple peaked 8 months in advance of the onset of a recession and declined by 15% between its pre-recession peak and the beginning of the recession. Sectors: During the 12 months before a recession, defensive sectors and “quality” factors have generally outperformed. Across 5 recessions since 1981, the average experience saw Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities outperform the index. There is more in the full Goldman Recession Manual available to professional subscribers. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 15:00.....»»

In the first quarter, Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR)’s seen bar and restaurant sales gain momentum in the UK following a tough start to the year where Omicron impacted trading. In the US and Rest of World, sales are ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Sales in UK shops have continued to return to normal levels, as consumers […] In the first quarter, Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR)’s seen bar and restaurant sales gain momentum in the UK following a tough start to the year where Omicron impacted trading. In the US and Rest of World, sales are ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Sales in UK shops have continued to return to normal levels, as consumers shift spending to bars and restaurants, following lockdowns. In the US, demand remains ‘very strong’ with sales 2.5 times higher than pre-pandemic levels. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Efforts to scale up production in the US continue as the group looks to reduce reliance on shipping, where higher costs and delays are hindering trading. On the West Coast, bottling lines are operational with the East Coast expected to ramp up production in the first half. The group called out continued inflationary cost pressures and expected performance this year in line with previous guidance. Revenue is expected between £355m-£365m with cash profit (EBITDA) of £63m-£66m. The shares were unmoved following the announcement. Fevertree's Earnings Matt Britzman, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown “Management described trading so far as ‘solid’ and it’s certainly nice to see the group on track for guidance, but we must not forget that was downgraded in March which was met with a nasty market reaction. The main issue this year, is that little to none of the c.16% forecast rise in revenue is expected to drop into cash profits and whilst that’s hardly unusual, given the wider macro conditions meaning costs are rising for pretty much everyone, some of Fevertree’s operations should be getting more efficient. One of the main issues called out for rising costs is shipping to the US, it’s a key growth area for the group so servicing that demand is essential. Positive steps are underway to bottle directly in the US and therefore avoid a lot of freight costs, that partnership with a local bottling company is well underway and ramping up production this year. However, we’re still yet to see any real benefit on margins which are still expected to drop quite significantly this year. There are some positives for the longer-term investment case, growth outside of the saturated UK market looks promising and increased demand for premium alcohol and mixers looks to be stickier than first anticipated. However, when investors are expected to pay 36 times earnings for a slice of the pie, in today’s world, those margins need to start moving in the right direction.” About Hargreaves Lansdown Over 1.7 million clients trust us with £132.3 billion (as at 30 April 2022), making us the UK’s number one platform for private investors. More than 98% of client activity is done through our digital channels and over 600,000 access our mobile app each month. 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