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The Tell: A pre-jobs data bet may have have netted trader $10 million profit, report says

A bet on fed-funds futures just ahead of Friday's January jobs report may have netted a trader a $10 million profit, according to Bloomberg......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch5 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

: A pre-jobs data bet may have have netted trader $10 million profit, report says

A bet on fed-funds futures just ahead of Friday's January jobs report may have netted a trader a $10 million profit, according to Bloomberg......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch6 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year Markets got the year off to a stellar start in January, with a positive performance for 34 of the 38 non-currency assets tracked by Deutsche Bank thematic research group. In fact, in terms of the breadth of gains, that’s the strongest start to a year since 2019, with advances across equities, sovereign bonds and credit. The main exception to this pattern has been among energy commodities, but lower oil and gas prices have themselves been good news to consumers who’ve been squeezed by higher energy prices last year. Elsewhere, As DB's Henry Allen writes, Chinese assets have continued to perform strongly amidst the economy’s reopening, which has also supported a strong rally amongst industrial metals. Nevertheless, it hasn’t been all good news, with investors remaining nervous about a US recession, as well as the prospect of more persistent inflation. Below we share some more details from the latest DB January performance review Month in Review - The high-level macro overview 2023 got off to a positive start in January, with investor risk appetite supported by several good news stories. The most important was the decline in energy prices, particularly in Europe, where natural gas futures continued their decline from late December with a further -24.8% decline in January. That took them down to their lowest levels since September 2021, and means that the outlook for the European economy is much brighter than expected only a few weeks ago, prompting numerous economists to positively revise their forecasts and remove a Euro Area recession from their 2023 projections. This brightening picture has also been reflected in sentiment indicators, with the European Commission’s numbers for Euro Area consumer confidence at an 11-month high in January. The other positive story for markets in January was the continued reopening of China’s economy. Easing restrictions have made investors more optimistic on China’s economic performance, with the Shanghai Composite up +5.4% in total return terms. And more broadly, industrial metals prices have performed very strongly, with copper (+10.9%) advancing for a third consecutive month, raising concerns that China’s reopening could be inflationary for the global economy. The brighter macro outlook meant that various assets put in a very strong performance over January. For instance, the S&P 500 (+6.3%) had its best start to a year since 2019, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+6.8%) had its best start since 2015. Meanwhile for US Treasuries (+2.8%), it’s been their second-best monthly performance since March 2020, back when the Fed slashed rates to zero as the Covid pandemic began. Tech stocks saw a particularly strong performance following an awful 2022, with the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech stocks up by +18.7%, marking its best month since August 2020. However, a more negative story over the month has been continued fears about a US recession. These were present from the start of the month, when the ISM readings showed that December was the first month since May 2020 that both the services and manufacturing components were in contractionary territory. Then both the retail sales and industrial production data for December came in beneath expectations. And lastly, the Conference Board’s Leading Index showed a year-on-year decline of -6.0%, which historically has been consistent with either recessions or the recovery from recessions. Other leading indicators such as the yield curve remained deeply inverted too, with the 2s10s closing in inversion territory for a 7th consecutive month. A final theme over the month was growing speculation that central banks might be nearing an end to their current cycle of rate hikes. That was turbocharged by the weak ISM services index for December at the start of the month, and then the US CPI release for December cemented expectations that the Fed would downshift to a 25bps move at their February meeting. Similar themes were evident elsewhere, with the Bank of Canada formally announcing a pause in their rate hikes for the time being. That said, nervousness about stronger-than-expected inflation was still evident, and the end of the month saw a modest sell-off on the penultimate day amidst fears that the central bank meetings in February could see a continuation of their hawkish stance. Which assets saw the biggest gains in January? Equities: January was a positive month for all the major equity indices, including gains for the S&P 500 (+6.3%), the STOXX 600 (+6.8%), the Nikkei (+4.x%) and the Shanghai Composite (+5.4%). Certain sectors like tech did particularly well, with the NASDAQ up +10.7%. European banks also outperformed, with the STOXX 600 Banks index up +14.1% in its strongest January since data begins in 1987. Sovereign Bonds: After an awful 2022 performance, sovereign bonds have had a very strong start to the year, with gains for US Treasuries (+2.8%), Euro Sovereigns (+2.4%) and UK gilts (+2.8%). For US Treasuries, it marks their second-strongest monthly performance since the height of the pandemic in March 2020. Credit: All the credit indices we follow were in positive territory over January, although as with sovereign bonds, EUR credit underperformed USD and GBP credit. The biggest gain was for USD fin sub (+4.4%), where the gain was more than double that for EUR fin sen (+2.1%). Metals: China’s reopening was a big support for industrial metals in January, with copper up +10.9% in its third consecutive monthly advance. In the meantime, gold advanced a further +5.7%, which brings its gains over the last 3 months to +18.0%, and marks its strongest advance over 3 calendar months since August 2011. EM Assets: Emerging markets put in a strong month over January, with the MSCI EM equity index up +7.9% for its strongest start to a year since 2019. Other EM assets also outperformed, with EM bonds up +3.9%, and EM FX up +2.5%. Cryptocurrencies: Having struggled in 2022, crypto assets have had a much better start in 2023. Bitcoin was up +38.8% over the month to $22,951, which is its strongest monthly performance since October 2021. The gains were widespread elsewhere, with Ethereum (+31.5%) and Litecoin (+32.9%) seeing significant advances as well. Which assets saw the biggest losses in January? Energy Commodities: Natural gas prices have declined significantly since the start of the year, with European futures (-24.8%) and US futures (-40.0%) seeing big falls over January. Oil prices have also lost ground, with Brent Crude (-1.7%) and WTI (-1.7%) both down slightly. US Dollar: The dollar index (-1.4%) fell for a 4th consecutive month for the first time since 2020. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 15:20.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt7 hr. 33 min. ago Related News

Futures Movers: Oil prices post weekly loss hit by doubts about Chinese demand and threat of higher interest rates

Oil futures end lower on Friday to tally a loss for the week, as traders await clarity on China's demand picture in the wake of the Lunar New Year holiday......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch8 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

: A pre-jobs report bet may have have netted trader $10 million profit, report says

A bet on fed-funds futures just ahead of Friday's January jobs report may have netted a trader a $10 million profit, according to Bloomberg......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch8 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

: Oil futures fall for the session, with U.S prices at lowest in a month

U.S. oil futures settled lower on Friday, hitting their lowest in a month. It was another rough week for oil as “cooling optimism over the demand outlook and rising U.S. stockpiles kept bears in a position of power,” said Lukman Otunuga, manager, market analysis at FXTM. The European Union is set to enforce sanctions on imports of Russian oil products on Feb. 5. “It will be interesting to see how this may impact global oil prices in the medium to longer term,” said Otunuga. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery clh23 fell $2.49, or 3.3%, to settle at $73.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Front-month contract prices settled at their lowest since Jan. 4, down 7.9% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch8 hr. 33 min. ago Related News

Metals Stocks: Gold posts lowest finish in more than 3 weeks after a stronger than-expected U.S. jobs report

Gold futures on Friday settle at their lowest in more than three weeks as a much better-than-expected U.S. monthly jobs report strengthens the dollar......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch8 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

: Brent oil futures trade below $80/bbl on ICE Futures Europe

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch9 hr. 33 min. ago Related News

: Brent oil futures trade below $80/bbl on ICE Futures Europe

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch9 hr. 33 min. ago Related News

: Gold futures settle at a more than 3-week low

Gold futures settled Friday at their lowest in more than three weeks, down 2.7% from last Friday’s finish. Gold took a hit because “the positive surprise on the jobs number is a strong indication that the [Federal Reserve] has more than a single rate hike left in it,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. Gold was hit harder than equities because “it’s been outperforming stocks over the last few months,” he said. “Profits are being taken by those who have enjoyed that ride.” Gold for April delivery GCJ23 fell $54.20, or 2.8%, to settle at $1,876.60 an ounce on Comex.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch10 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

Futures Movers: Oil prices head for a weekly drop, as traders await clarity on China demand

Oil futures move lower, on track for a weekly fall, as traders await clarity on China's demand picture in the wake of the Lunar New Year holiday......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch10 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

Bitcoin Market Sentiment Is Most Bullish in 14 Months With US Jobs Report Due

The cost of holding a bullish long position in perpetual futures tied to bitcoin has jumped to the highest since the dizzy bull market days of late 2021......»»

Category: forexSource: coindesk11 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

: Stock-index futures fall after much stronger-than-expected jobs report

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch14 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

: Dow futures down 208 points, or 0.6%

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch14 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

: S&P 500 futures down 1.1%; Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.6%

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch14 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

Nasdaq Futures Deflate As Apple Leads Tech Disappointments: Traders Look To Jobs Data For Mitigating Impact

Trading in the U.S. index futures suggests stocks may end a solidly positive week on a negative note. That said, the data-dependency of the Fed places the onus of providing trading cues to each incoming economic data. The U.S. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzinga15 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

: Apple, Alphabet and Amazon stock selloff would reduce their market caps by more than $150 billion combined

The selloff in the shares of AAA technology behemoths — Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. — that reported quarterly results overnight are shaving off a combined $158.5 billion from the companies’ market capitalizations. But that loss would be just about 38% of what the $254.5 billion gained the day before earnings were reported. Apple stock AAPL fell 2.4% in premarket trading Friday after earnings were reported late Thursday. While that would cut Apple’s market cap by $57.6 billion, the pre-earnings rally of 3.7% added $85.3 billion. Alphabet’s stock GOOGLGOOG fell 3.6% ahead of Friday’s open to reduce its market cap by $49.8 billion, but the Thursday rally of 7.3% had added $93.6 billion. And for Amazon, the stock AMZN shed 4.4% early Friday to cut off $51.1 billion in market cap, but Thursday’s surge of 7.4% had added $75.6 billion. Meanwhile, futures NQ00 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank 1.1% ahead of Friday’s open, after the index NDX jumped 3.6% on Thursday. The futures ES00 for the S&P 500 SPX fell 0.6% early Friday.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch15 hr. 5 min. ago Related News

Futures Movers: Oil ticks lower, headed for weekly drop, as traders await clarity on China demand

Oil futures edge lower, on track for a weekly fall, as traders await clarity on China's demand picture in the wake of the Lunar New Year holiday......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch15 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

Market Snapshot: U.S. stock futures slide after poor results from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet with jobs data ahead

U.S. stock futures fall Friday, with the technology sector bearing the brunt of the losses following disappointing results from Amazon.com, Apple and Alphabet, ahead of the January employment report......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch15 hr. 49 min. ago Related News

Stocks are getting a boost from a key indicator that"s been a reliable sign of more gains to come

Insider's Phil Rosen breaks down why stocks could stage a rally and the meaning of a key bullish bond market metric. Happy Friday, team. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen. In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts.EU policymakers plan to make the same sized hike at their meeting in March, similar to expectations for the US central bank to repeat yesterday's rate hike at its next meeting.  Speaking of rates, today we're going over a key economic indicator that suggests more upside ahead for stocks. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.REUTERS/Brendan McDermid1. Ever since the Fed started tightening policy last March, the stock market has been highly susceptible to interest-rate volatility. And as Insider's Anil Varma writes, falling bond-market volatility is now underpinning the rebounding investor confidence in equities. Based on stocks' blistering January rally, there seems to be a growing sense of optimism for 2023 — despite bleak Wall Street forecasts, as well as the Fed's insistence that more rate hikes are coming.Specifically, the MOVE Index — which measures volatility of US Treasury yields — has dipped to lows that haven't been seen since the Fed's first rate hike of this cycle. This means potentially smaller swings in the stock market as highly rate-sensitive equities get some relief after big rate moves battered indexes in 2022. Data shows that the trajectory of the S&P 500 has been almost a perfect inverse image of the MOVE index over the past year, illustrating the market's heightened sensitivity to the interest-rate outlook.All the while, US trading trends have pointed to increasingly positive market sentiment, as has a key "golden cross" indicator that's widely considered a bullish sign. Stocks saw sustained rallies in 2016, 2019, and 2020 following the flashing of the golden cross.And since Jerome Powell didn't completely dash investors' hopes of a dovish policy pivot at his speech on Wednesday, the market's enthusiasm looks poised to hold up, according to billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach."There was just something about his demeanor," Gundlach told CNBC. "He just seems like he has confidence, he feels comfortable in where he's gotten to, and I think everybody kind of sensed that. And he obviously did not fight back against market pricing."Are markets right to feel confident after Powell's speech and heading into the rest of 2023? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. In other news:Ray DalioYouTube / NYT Conferences2. European stocks and US futures fall early Friday, after gloomy earnings from Amazon, Google, and Apple underlined the troubles facing Big Tech. Meanwhile, Nordstrom shares shot up after Ryan Cohen reportedly took a stake. Here are the latest market moves.3. Earnings on deck: Mitsubishi, Cigna, and more, all reporting.4. Following the Fed's latest rate hike, economists and strategists shared where to put cash right now. Top experts from across Wall Street broke down the best investments to make as the central bank's policy threatens to tip the economy into a recession. See the 8 recommendations. 5. Mark Zuckerberg's net worth spiked $12 billion this week thanks to Meta's stock rally. Investors have cheered the social media company's cost-cutting plans, and the founder has reaped the rewards. Now Zuckerberg's sitting on roughly $69 billion.6. Ray Dalio warned that "money as we know it is in jeopardy." The Bridgewater Associates founder told CNBC that there's a looming currency crisis with too much money printing happening. Here's what the legendary investor sees as the best option moving forward.7. Oil giant Shell said it will spend $4 billion buying back shares. The announcement follows the company reporting its highest-ever annual profit. Over the last year, Shell booked massive natural gas business thanks to sky-high prices. 8. Here's how to pinpoint the housing markets that will see the biggest declines in 2023. BiggerPockets' star Dave Meyer predicted housing prices will drop across the country, but said regional shifts will vary widely. He also explained why real estate in the most expensive cities could fall 30%. 9. Jeremy Grantham's right-hand man shared five trades to start making right now. These moves, according to Ben Inker, can provide the best returns and the smallest downside risk in the cheapest parts of the market. Get the details.Carvana stock on Feb. 3, 2023Markets Insider10. Stocks like Carvana and Bed Bath & Beyond are getting a huge boost right now. Risk appetite is returning to markets now that the Fed has acknowledged falling inflation. In his Wednesday speech, Powell mentioned the word "disinflation" 13 times.Curated by Phil Rosen in Los Angeles. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.comEdited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt17 hr. 21 min. ago Related News