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"Greater Idaho" took one step closer to being a real thing this week, as 5 counties voted to secede from liberal Oregon in hopes of joining conservative Idaho.

The proposed new border for the Greater Idaho movement would see more than 70% of Oregon's land be incorporated into Idaho. Welcome .....»»

Category: worldSource: nytMay 25th, 2021

"Greater Idaho" took one step closer to being a real thing this week, as 5 counties voted to secede from liberal Oregon in hopes of joining conservative Idaho.

The proposed new border for the Greater Idaho movement would see more than 70% of Oregon's land be incorporated into Idaho. Welcome .....»»

Category: worldSource: nytMay 25th, 2021

Stocks Slip This Week While Waiting for Stimulus

Stocks Slip This Week While Waiting for Stimulus The major indices pulled back this week as the market catches its breath after a record-setting run and wonders when Washington will agree on a stimulus package. The Dow crossed back over 30K on Friday after closing just under that mark yesterday. It gained 0.16% (or about 47 points) to 30,046.37. But the NASDAQ slipped 0.23% (or nearly 28 points) to 12,377.87, while the S&P declined 0.13% to 3663.46. For the week, the S&P was down 1% and the Dow was off 0.6%, which put an end to back-to-back weekly advances. The NASDAQ ended a three-week run by dipping 0.7% over the five days. The Senate passed a one-week government funding extension today, as did the House earlier this week. Assuming President Trump signs the measure, a government shutdown will be averted through Dec. 18. Unfortunately, that’s the only real progress that Capitol Hill has made this week. They appear to agree that something needs to get done while we wait for the vaccines to do their thing, but it’s only talk for now. The market hopes this extension will give them time to make it happen. We’ve been getting signs lately that the renewed restrictions amid rising coronavirus cases is having an economic impact. Most recently, the jobless claims soared past 800K for the first time in nearly two months, while falling well short of expectations and the previous week’s result. On Thursday, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine got one step closer to final approval when an FDA advisory panel recommended it for emergency use. Such news would’ve sent the market through the roof a few weeks ago.   And there’s the problem. All the positive vaccine news has been priced in, though the vaccine itself is still months away from normalizing our lives. In the meantime, the market needs a catalyst to keep moving higher after this record-setting run. Those folks in Washington are the best chance for that catalyst. Let’s hope it gets done next week. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Surprise Trader: Investors have always thought that the rising earnings in the RV space was unsustainable, but Dave believes its part of a paradigm shift. The upcoming quarterly report from Winnebago Industries (WGO) should be the latest example that this space isn’t a flash in the pan brought on by covid. The company has crushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by double digits in the last two quarters and now has a positive Earnings ESP of 14.89% for the quarter coming before the bell next Friday, December 18. Furthermore, WGO is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a VGM score of “A” that’s part of a space in the top 2% of the Zacks Industry Rank. The editor added WGO on Friday with a 12.5% allocation, while also selling Jack in the Box (JACK) for a 5.8% return in just under a month. Read the full write-up for more. TAZR Trader: The past couple days have been pretty eventful for Inseego (INSG). This small-cap “pioneer” in 5G and intelligent IoT device-to-cloud solutions provider announced that its 5G MiFi M2000 mobile hotspot would now be available in Japan, which gives it a much bigger footprint worldwide. This comes a day after T-Mobile selected this as its first 5G hotspot. INSG soared 12.2% on Friday to become the top-performing stock among all ZU names. Infinera (INFN) also made the Top 5 movers list with a gain of 4.4%.  Value Investor: "Stocks are in a wait-and-see mode as Congress continues to dither about the aid package. "Somehow it managed to pass a 1-week extension on the budget to avoid a government shutdown but it's no closer to a coronavirus agreement even as the Dec 26 deadline for the end to unemployment looms. "There are many who believe they positively won't allow that deadline to pass without passing something, but I would remind you all that many thought the same thing about the late July deadline on the extra $600 a week. "Not only did Congress let the $600 a week expire but they haven't even given it a second thought. "Anything will be possible next week. This stock market will move on the headlines, once again." -- Tracey Ryniec Have a Great Weekend! Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

BTFD Arrives: Futures Rebound, Europe Surges While Asia Slumps On Evergrande Fears

BTFD Arrives: Futures Rebound, Europe Surges While Asia Slumps On Evergrande Fears Even though China was closed for a second day, and even though the Evergrande drama is nowhere closer to a resolution with a bond default imminent and with Beijing mute on how it will resolve the potential "Lehman moment" even as rating agency S&P chimed in saying a default is likely and it does not expect China’s government “to provide any direct support” to the privately owned developer, overnight the BTFD crew emerged in full force, and ramped futures amid growing speculation that Beijing will rescue the troubled developer... Algos about to go on a rampage — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 21, 2021 ... pushing spoos almost 100 points higher from their Monday lows, and European stock were solidly in the green - despite Asian stocks hitting a one-month low - as investors tried to shake off fears of contagion from a potential collapse of China’s Evergrande, although gains were capped by concerns the Federal Reserve could set out a timeline to taper its stimulus at its meeting tomorrow. The dollar dropped from a one-month high, Treasury yields rose and cryptos rebounded from yesterday's rout. To be sure, the "this is not a Lehman moment" crowed was out in full force, as indicated by this note from Mizuho analysts who wrote that “while street wisdom is that Evergrande is not a ‘Lehman risk’, it is by no stretch of the imagination any meaningful comfort. It could end up being China’s proverbial house of cards ... with cross-sector headwinds already felt in materials/commodities.” At 7:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were up 34.00 points, or 0.79% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis 110.25 points, or 0.73%, while futures tracking the Dow  jumped 0.97%, a day after the index tumbled 1.8% in its worst day since late-July,  suggesting a rebound in sentiment after concerns about contagion from China Evergrande Group’s upcoming default woes roiled markets Monday. Dip-buyers in the last hour of trading Monday helped the S&P 500 pare some losses, though the index still posted the biggest drop since May. The bounce also came after the S&P 500 dropped substantially below its 50-day moving average - which had served as a resilient floor for the index this year - on Monday, its first major breach in more than six months. Freeport-McMoRan mining stocks higher with a 3% jump, following a 3.2% plunge in the S&P mining index a day earlier as copper prices hit a one-month low. Interest rate-sensitive banking stocks also bounced, tracking a rise in Treasury yields. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks start to recover from Monday’s slump in premarket trading as the global selloff moderates. Alibaba (BABA US), Baidu (BIDU US), Nio (NIO US), Tencent Music (TME US)and Bilibili (BILI US) are among the gainers Verrica Pharma (VRCA US) plunges 30% in premarket trading after failing to get FDA approval for VP-102 for the treatment of molluscum contagiosum ReWalk Robotics (RWLK US) shares jump 43% in U.S. premarket trading amid a spike in volume in the stock. Being discussed on StockTwits Aprea Therapeutics gains 21% in U.S. premarket trading after the company reported complete remission in a bladder cancer patient in Phase 1/2 clinical trial of eprenetapopt in combination with pembrolizumab Lennar (LEN US) shares fell 3% in Monday postmarket trading after the homebuilder forecast 4Q new orders below analysts’ consensus hurt by unprecedented supply chain challenges ConocoPhillips (COP US) ticks higher in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to buy Shell’s  Permian Basin assets for $9.5 billion in cash, accelerating the consolidation of the largest U.S. oil patch SmileDirect (SDC US) slightly higher in premarket trading after it said on Monday that it plans to enter France with an initial location in Paris KAR Global (KAR US) shares fell 4.6% in post-market trading on Monday after the company withdrew is full-year financial outlook citing disruption caused by chip shortage Sportradar (SRAD US) shares jumped 4.5% in Monday postmarket trading, after the company said basketball legend Michael Jordan will serve as a special adviser to its board and also increase his investment in the sports betting and entertainment services provider, effective immediately Orbital Energy Group (OEG US) gained 6% postmarket Monday after a unit won a contract  to construct 1,910 miles of rural broadband network in Virginia. Terms were not disclosed “So much of this information is already known that we don’t think it will necessary set off a wave of problems,” John Bilton, head of global multi-asset strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “I’m more concerned about knock-on sentiment at a time when investor sentiment is a bit fragile. But when we look at the fundamentals -- the general growth, and direction in the wider economy -- we still feel reasonably confident that the situation will right itself.” Aside from worries over Evergrande’s ability to make good on $300 billion of liabilities, investors are also positioning for the two-day Fed meeting starting Tuesday, where policy makers are expected to start laying the groundwork for paring stimulus.  Europe's Stoxx 600 index climbed more than 1%, rebounding from the biggest slump in two months, with energy companies leading the advance and all industry sectors in the green. Royal Dutch Shell rose after the company offered shareholders a payout from the sale of shale oil fields. Universal Music Group BV shares soared in their stock market debut after being spun off from Vivendi SE. European airlines other travel-related stocks rise for a second day following the U.S. decision to soon allow entry to most foreign air travelers as long as they’re fully vaccinated against Covid-19; British Airways parent IAG soars as much as 6.9%, extending Monday’s 11% jump. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Stagecoach shares jump as much as 24% after the company confirmed it is in takeover talks with peer National Express. Shell climbs as much as 4.4% after selling its Permian Basin assets to ConocoPhillips for $9.5 billion. Bechtle gains as much as 4.3% after UBS initiated coverage at buy. Husqvarna tumbles as much as 9% after the company said it is suing Briggs & Stratton in the U.S. for failing to deliver sufficient lawn mower engines for the 2022 season. Kingfisher slides as much as 6.4% after the DIY retailer posted 1H results and forecast higher profits this fiscal year. The mood was decidedly more sour earlier in the session, when Asian stocks fell for a second day amid continued concerns over China’s property sector, with Japan leading regional declines as the market reopened after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.5%, headed for its lowest close since Aug. 30, with Alibaba and SoftBank the biggest drags. China Evergrande Group slid deeper in equity and credit markets Tuesday after S&P said the developer is on the brink of default. Markets in China, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for holidays. Worries over contagion risk from the Chinese developer’s debt problems and Beijing’s ongoing crackdowns, combined with concern over Federal Reserve tapering, sent global stocks tumbling Monday. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 1.6%, the most since July 19. Japan’s stocks joined the selloff Tuesday as investor concerns grew over China’s real-estate sector as well as Federal Reserve tapering, with the Nikkei 225 sliding 2.2% - its biggest drop in three months, catching up with losses in global peers after a holiday - after a four-week rally boosted by expectations for favorable economic policies from a new government. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 1.7%. SoftBank Group and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 2.2% loss in the Nikkei 225. Japanese stocks with high China exposure including Toto and Nippon Paint also dropped. “The outsized reaction in global markets may be a function of having too many uncertainties bunched into this period,” Eugene Leow, a macro strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a note. “It probably does not help that risk taking (especially in equities) has gone on for an extended period and may be vulnerable to a correction.” “The proportion of Japan’s exports to China is greater than those to the U.S. or Europe, making it sensitive to any slowdown worries in the Chinese economy,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management in Tokyo. “The stock market has yet to fully price in the possibility of a bankruptcy by Evergrande Group.” The Nikkei 225 has been the best-performing major stock gauge in the world this month, up 6.2%, buoyed by expectations for favorable policies from a new government and an inflow of foreign cash. The Topix is up 5.3% so far in September. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower and the greenback fell versus most of its Group-of-10 peers as a selloff in global stocks over the past two sessions abated; the euro hovered while commodity currencies led by the Norwegian krone were the best performers amid an advance in crude oil prices. Sweden’s krona was little changed after the Riksbank steered clear of signaling any post-pandemic tightening, as it remains unconvinced that a recent surge in inflation will last. The pound bucked a three-day losing streak as global risk appetite revived, while investors look to Thursday’s Bank of England meeting for policy clues. The yen erased earlier gains as signs that risk appetite is stabilizing damped demand for haven assets. At the same time, losses were capped due to uncertainty over China’s handling of the Evergrande debt crisis. In rates, Treasuries were lower, although off worst levels of the day as U.S. stock futures recover around half of Monday’s losses while European equities trade with a strong bid tone. Yields are cheaper by up to 2.5bp across long-end of the curve, steepening 5s30s spread by 1.2bp; 10-year yields around 1.3226%, cheaper by 1.5bp on the day, lagging bunds and gilts by 1bp-2bp. The long-end of the curve lags ahead of $24b 20-year bond reopening. Treasury will auction $24b 20-year bonds in first reopening at 1pm ET; WI yield ~1.82% is below auction stops since January and ~3bp richer than last month’s new-issue result In commodities, crude futures rose, with the front month WTI up 1.5% near $71.50. Brent stalls near $75. Spot gold trades a narrow range near $1,765/oz. Base metals are mostly in the green with LME aluminum the best performer Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for August, along with the UK public finances for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos. Otherwise, the General Debate will begin at the UN General Assembly, and the OECD publishes their Interim Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 4,392.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 459.10 MXAP down 0.5% to 200.25 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 640.31 Nikkei down 2.2% to 29,839.71 Topix down 1.7% to 2,064.55 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,221.54 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,613.97 Sensex up 0.4% to 58,751.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,273.83 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,140.51 Brent Futures up 1.6% to $75.13/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,761.68 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.19 German 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to -0.304% Euro little changed at $1.1729 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Lael Brainard is a leading candidate to be the Federal Reserve’s banking watchdog and is also being discussed for more prominent Biden administration appointments, including to replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell and, potentially, for Treasury secretary if Janet Yellen leaves Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will this week face the challenge of convincing investors that plans to scale back asset purchases aren’t a runway to raising interest rates for the first time since 2018 ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says there is “good news” with respect to the euro-area recovery after a strong development in the second and third quarter The ECB is likely to continue purchasing junk-rated Greek sovereign debt even after the pandemic crisis has passed, according to Governing Council member and Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras U.K. government borrowing was well below official forecasts in the first five months of the fiscal year, providing a fillip for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak as he prepares for a review of tax and spending next month U.K. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warned the next few days will be challenging as the energy crisis deepens, and meat producers struggle with a crunch in carbon dioxide supplies The U.K.’s green bond debut broke demand records for the nation’s debt as investors leaped on the long-anticipated sterling asset. The nation is offering a green bond maturing in 2033 via banks on Tuesday at 7.5 basis points over the June 2032 gilt. It has not given an exact size target for the sale, which has attracted a record of more than 90 billion pounds ($123 billion) in orders Germany cut planned debt sales in the fourth quarter by 4 billion euros ($4.7 billion), suggesting the surge in borrowing triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is receding Contagion from China Evergrande Group has started to engulf even safer debt in Asia, sparking the worst sustained selloff of the securities since April. Premiums on Asian investment-grade dollar bonds widened 2-3 basis points Tuesday, according to credit traders, after a jump of 3.4 basis points on Monday Swiss National Bank policy makers watching the effects of negative interest rates on the economy are worrying about the real-estate bubble that their policy is helping to foster Global central banks need to set out clear strategies for coping with inflation risks as the world economy experiences faster-than-expected cost increases amid an uneven recovery from the pandemic, the OECD said A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities traded cautiously following the recent downbeat global risk appetite due to Evergrande contagion concerns which resulted in the worst day for Wall Street since May, with the region also contending with holiday-thinned conditions due to the ongoing closures in China, South Korea and Taiwan. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was indecisive with a rebound in the mining-related sectors counterbalanced by underperformance in utilities, financials and tech, while there were also reports that the Byron Bay area in New South Wales will be subject to a seven-day lockdown from this evening. Nikkei 225 (-1.8%) was heavily pressured and relinquished the 30k status as it played catch up to the contagion downturn on return from the extended weekend with recent detrimental currency inflows also contributing to the losses for exporters. Hang Seng (-0.3%) was choppy amid the continued absence of mainland participants with markets second-guessing whether Chinese authorities will intervene in the event of an Evergrande collapse, while shares in the world’s most indebted developer fluctuated and wiped out an early rebound, although affiliate Evergrande Property Services and other property names fared better after Sun Hung Kai disputed reports of China pressuring Hong Kong developers and with Guangzhou R&F Properties boosted by reports major shareholders pledged funds in the Co. which is also selling key assets to Country Garden. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the underperformance in Japanese stocks and with the Japan Securities Dealers Association recently noting that global funds purchased the most ultra-long Japanese bonds since 2014, although upside was limited amid softer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr maturities and with the BoJ kickstarting its two-day policy meeting. Top Asian News Richest Banker Says Evergrande Is China’s ‘Lehman Moment’ Hong Kong Tycoons, Casino Giants Find Respite in Stock Rebound Taliban Add More Male Ministers, Say Will Include Women Later Asian Stocks Drop to Lowest Level This Month; Japan Leads Losses European equities (Stoxx 600 +1.1%) trade on a firmer footing attempting to recoup some of yesterday’s losses with not much in the way of incremental newsflow driving the upside. Despite the attempt to claw back some of the prior session’s lost ground, the Stoxx 600 is still lower by around 1.6% on the week. The Asia-Pac session was one characterised by caution and regional market closures with China remaining away from market. Focus remains on whether Evergrande will meet USD 83mln in interest payments due on Thursday and what actions Chinese authorities could take to limit the contagion from the company in the event of further troubles. Stateside, futures are also on a firmer footing with some slight outperformance in the RTY (+1.2%) vs. peers (ES +0.8%). Again, there is not much in the way of fresh positivity driving the upside and instead gains are likely more a by-product of dip-buying; attention for the US is set to become increasingly geared towards tomorrow’s FOMC policy announcement. Sectors in Europe are firmer across the board with outperformance in Oil & Gas names amid a recovery in the crude complex and gains in Shell (+4.4%) after news that the Co. is to sell its Permian Basin assets to ConocoPhillips (COP) for USD 9.5bln in cash. Other outperforming sectors include Tech, Insurance and Basic Resources. IAG (+4.1%) and Deutsche Lufthansa (+3.8%) both sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 as the Co.’s continue to enjoy the fallout from yesterday’s decision by the US to allow travel from vaccinated EU and UK passengers. Swatch (-0.7%) is lagging in the luxury space following a downgrade at RBC, whilst data showed Swiss watch exports were +11.5% Y/Y in August (prev. 29.1%). Finally, National Express (+7.7%) is reportedly considering a takeover of Stagecoach (+21.4%), which is valued at around GBP 370mln. Top European News U.K. Warns of Challenging Few Days as Energy Crisis Deepens Germany Trims Planned Debt Sales as Pandemic Impact Recedes U.K.’s Green Bond Debut Draws Record Demand of $123 Billion Goldman Plans $1.5 Billion Petershill Partners IPO in London In FX, all the signs are constructive for a classic turnaround Tuesday when it comes to Loonie fortunes as broad risk sentiment improves markedly, WTI consolidates within a firm range around Usd 71/brl compared to yesterday’s sub-Usd 70 low and incoming results from Canada’s general election indicate victory for the incumbent Liberal party that will secure a 3rd term for PM Trudeau. Hence, it’s better the devil you know as such and Usd/Cad retreated further from its stop-induced spike to just pips short of 1.2900 to probe 1.2750 at one stage before bouncing ahead of new house price data for August. Conversely, the Swedish Krona seems somewhat reluctant to get carried away with the much better market mood after the latest Riksbank policy meeting only acknowledged significantly stronger than expected inflation data in passing, and the repo rate path remained rooted to zero percent for the full forecast horizon as a consequence. However, Eur/Sek has slipped back to test 10.1600 bids/support following an initial upturn to almost 10.1800, irrespective of a rise in unemployment. NOK/AUD/NZD - No such qualms for the Norwegian Crown as Brent hovers near the top of a Usd 75.18-74.20/brl band and the Norges Bank is widely, if not universally tipped to become the first major Central Bank to shift into tightening mode on Thursday, with Eur/Nok hugging the base of a 10.1700-10.2430 range. Elsewhere, the Aussie and Kiwi look relieved rather than rejuvenated in their own right given dovish RBA minutes, a deterioration in Westpac’s NZ consumer sentiment and near reversal in credit card spending from 6.9% y/y in July to -6.3% last month. Instead, Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd have rebounded amidst the recovery in risk appetite that has undermined their US rival to top 0.7380 and 0.7050 respectively at best. GBP/CHF/EUR/JPY/DXY - Sterling is latching on to the ongoing Dollar retracement and more supportive backdrop elsewhere to pare losses under 1.3700, while the Franc continues its revival to 0.9250 or so and almost 1.0850 against the Euro even though the SNB is bound to check its stride at the upcoming policy review, and the single currency is also forming a firmer base above 1.1700 vs the Buck. Indeed, the collective reprieve in all components of the Greenback basket, bar the Yen on diminished safe-haven demand, has pushed the index down to 93.116 from 93.277 at the earlier apex, and Monday’s elevated 93.455 perch, while Usd/Jpy is straddling 109.50 and flanked by decent option expiry interest either side. On that note, 1.4 bn resides at the 109.00 strike and 1.1 bn between 109.60-70, while there is 1.6 bn in Usd/Cad bang on 1.2800. EM - Some respite across the board in wake of yesterday’s mauling at the hands of risk-off positioning in favour of the Usd, while the Czk has also been underpinned by more hawkish CNB commentary as Holub echoes the Governor by advocating a 50 bp hike at the end of September and a further 25-50 bp in November. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer in the European morning post gains in excess of 1.0%, though the benchmarks are off highs after an early foray saw Brent Nov’21 eclipse USD 75.00/bbl, for instance. While there has been newsflow for the complex, mainly from various energy ministers, there hasn’t been much explicitly for crude to change the dial; thus, the benchmarks are seemingly moving in tandem with broader risk sentiment (see equities). In terms of the energy commentary, the Qatar minister said they are not thinking of re-joining OPEC+ while the UAE minister spoke on the gas situation. On this, reports in Russian press suggests that Russia might allow Rosneft to supply 10bcm of gas to Europe per year under an agency agreement with Gazprom “as an experiment”, developments to this will be closely eyed for any indication that it could serve to ease the current gas situation. Looking ahead, we have the weekly private inventory report which is expected to post a headline draw of 2.4mln and draws, albeit of a smaller magnitude, are expected for distillate and gasoline as well. Moving to metals, spot gold is marginally firmer while silver outperforms with base-metals picking up across the board from the poor performance seen yesterday that, for instance, saw LME copper below the USD 9k mark. Note, the action is more of a steadying from yesterday’s downside performance than any notable upside, with the likes of copper well within Monday’s parameters. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Aug. Building Permits MoM, est. -1.8%, prior 2.6%, revised 2.3% 8:30am: Aug. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -7.0% 8:30am: Aug. Building Permits, est. 1.6m, prior 1.64m, revised 1.63m 8:30am: Aug. Housing Starts, est. 1.55m, prior 1.53m 8:30am: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -$190.8b, prior -$195.7b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Global markets slumped across the board yesterday in what was one of the worst days of the year as an array of concerns about the outlook gathered pace. The crisis at Evergrande and in the Chinese real estate sector was the catalyst most people were talking about, but truth be told, the market rout we’re seeing is reflecting a wider set of risks than just Chinese property, and comes after increasing questions have been asked about whether current valuations could still be justified, with talk of a potential correction picking up. Remember that 68% of respondents to my survey last week (link here) thought they’d be at least a 5% correction in equity markets before year end. So this has been front and centre of people’s mind even if the catalyst hasn’t been clear. We’ve all known about Evergrande’s woes and how big it was for a while but it wasn’t until Friday’s story of the Chinese regulatory crackdown extending into property that crystallised the story into having wider implications. As I noted in my chart of the day yesterday link here Chinese USD HY had been widening aggressively over the last couple of months but IG has been pretty rock solid. There were still no domestic signs of contagion by close of business Friday. However as it stands, there will likely be by the reopening post holidays tomorrow which reflects how quickly the story has evolved even without much new news. Before we get to the latest on this, note that we’ve still got a bumper couple of weeks on the calendar to get through, including the Fed decision tomorrow, which comes just as a potential government shutdown and debt ceiling fight are coming into view, alongside big debates on how much spending the Democrats will actually manage to pass. There has been some respite overnight with S&P 500 futures +0.58% higher and 10y UST yields up +1.5bps to 1.327%. Crude oil prices are also up c. 1%. On Evergrande, S&P Global Ratings has said that the company is on the brink of default and that it’s failure is unlikely to result in a scenario where China will be compelled to step in. The report added that they see China stepping in only if “there is a far-reaching contagion causing multiple major developers to fail and posing systemic risks to the economy.” The Hang Seng (-0.32%) is lower but the Hang Seng Properties index is up (+1.59%) and bouncing off the 5 plus year lows it hit yesterday. Elsewhere the ASX (+0.30%) and India’s Nifty (+0.35%) have also advanced. Chinese and South Korean markets are closed for a holiday but the Nikkei has reopened and is -1.80% and catching down to yesterday’s global move. Looking at yesterday’s moves in more depth, the gathering storm clouds saw the S&P 500 shed -1.70% in its worst day since May 12, with cyclical industries leading the declines and with just 10% of S&P 500 index members gaining. There was a late rally at the end of the US trading session that saw equity indices bounce off their lows, with the S&P 500 (-2.87%) and NASDAQ (-3.42%) both looking like they were going to register their worst days since October 2020 and late-February 2021 respectively. However, yesterday was still the 5th worst day for the S&P 500 in 2021. Reflecting the risk-off tone, small caps suffered in particular with the Russell 2000 falling -2.44%, whilst tech stocks were another underperformer as the NASDAQ lost -2.19% and the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech firms saw an even bigger -3.16% decline. For Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-1.67%) and other bourses including the DAX (-2.31%) seeing significant losses amidst the cyclical underperformance. It was the STOXX 600’s worst performance since mid-July and the 6th worst day of the year overall. Unsurprisingly, there was also a significant spike in volatility, with the VIX index climbing +4.9pts to 25.7 – its highest closing level since mid-May – after trading above 28.0pts midday. In line with the broader risk-off move, especially sovereign bonds rallied strongly as investors downgraded their assessment of the economic outlook and moved to price out the chances of near-term rate hikes. By the close of trade, yields on 10yr Treasuries had fallen -5.1bps to 1.311%, with lower inflation breakevens (-4.1bps) leading the bulk of the declines. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) similarly fell back, although there was a widening in spreads between core and periphery as investors turned more cautious. Elsewhere, commodities took a hit as concerns grew about the economic outlook, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-1.53%) losing ground for a third consecutive session. That said, European natural gas prices (+15.69%) were the massive exception once again, with the latest surge taking them above the peak from last Wednesday, and thus bringing the price gains since the start of August to +84.80%. Here in the UK, Business Secretary Kwarteng said that he didn’t expect an emergency regarding the energy supply, but also said that the government wouldn’t bail out failed companies. Meanwhile, EU transport and energy ministers are set to meet from tomorrow for an informal meeting, at which the massive spike in prices are likely to be discussed. Overnight, we have the first projections of the Canadian federal election with CBC News projecting that the Liberals will win enough seats to form a government for the third time albeit likely a minority government. With the counting still underway, Liberals are currently projected to win 156 seats while Conservatives are projected to win 120 seats. Both the parties are currently projected to win a seat less than last time. The Canadian dollar is up +0.44% overnight as the results remove some election uncertainty. Turning to the pandemic, the main news yesterday was that the US is set to relax its travel rules for foreign arrivals. President Biden announced the move yesterday, mandating that all adult visitors show proof of vaccination before entering the country. Airline stocks outperformed strongly in response, with the S&P 500 airlines (+1.55%) being one of the few industry groups that actually advanced yesterday. Otherwise, we heard from Pfizer and BioNTech that their vaccine trials on 5-11 year olds had successfully produced an antibody response among that age group. The dose was just a third of that used in those aged 12 and above, and they said they planned to share the data with regulators “as soon as possible”. Furthermore, they said that trials for the younger cohorts (2-5 and 6m-2) are expected as soon as Q4. In Germany, there are just 5 days left until the election now, and the last Insa poll before the vote showed a slight tightening in the race, with the centre-left SPD down a point to 25%, whilst the CDU/CSU bloc were up 1.5 points to 22%. Noticeably, that would also put the race back within the +/- 2.5% margin of error. The Greens were unchanged in third place on 15%. Staying with politics and shifting back to the US, there was news last night that Congressional Democratic leaders are looking to tie the suspension of the US debt ceiling vote to the spending bill that is due by the end of this month. If the spending bill is not enacted it would trigger a government shutdown, and if the debt ceiling is not raised it would cause defaults on federal payments as soon as October. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said the House will pass a spending bill that will fund the government through December 3rd and that the “legislation to avoid a government shutdown will also include a suspension of the debt limit through December 2022.” Republicans may balk at the second measure, given that it would take the issue off the table until after the 2022 midterm elections in November of that year. There wasn’t a great deal of data out yesterday, though German producer price inflation rose to +12.0% in August (vs. +11.1% expected), marking the fastest pace since December 1974. Separately in the US, the NAHB’s housing market index unexpectedly rose to 76 in September (vs. 75 expected), the first monthly increase since April. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for August, along with the UK public finances for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos. Otherwise, the General Debate will begin at the UN General Assembly, and the OECD will be publishing their Interim Economic Outlook. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/21/2021 - 07:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 21st, 2021

S&P, Dow Break Four-Week Losing Streaks

S&P, Dow Break Four-Week Losing Streaks Stocks pulled back on Friday in a session that was jam-packed with several market-moving topics, including the coronavirus, the President and the monthly jobs report. In the end though, the major indices managed to post gains for the full week, which hadn’t been done throughout the rough month of September.   Of course, the big story today was that President Trump and his wife tested positive for the coronavirus. So far, it seems to be a mild case and he will continue to work while in quarantine.   Now, nobody knows how or if this will impact the election right now, nor if it will influence the odds of a stimulus package in the coming days. And that’s the problem; it adds another layer of uncertainty on these important issues. Plus, the news was jarring and added onto fears of a second wave now that the weather will be getting cooler. Remember that the market reacted negatively to rising cases in Europe, so this obviously strikes much closer to home. Nevertheless, the major indices took the news rather well today. The NASDAQ had a sharp decline of 2.22% (or about 250 points) to 11,075.02. However, it still gained 1.5% for its second straight weekly advance. The losses for the other indices were more modest. The S&P was down 0.96% to 3348.42, while the Dow was down by only 0.48% (or about 134 points) to 27,682.81. These indices were up 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, this week. Those performances finally break four straight weeks of losses throughout September. If it weren’t for the President getting the coronavirus, the big story on Friday would be the Government Employment Situation report. The economy added 661,000 jobs last month, which was below expectations of 800,000 and, therefore, a disappointment after several better-than-expected numbers. But the unemployment rate did decline to 7.9%, which marks the second single-digit rate in a row. Meanwhile, there’s still no agreement in the talks between Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. The House Democrats advanced a $2.2 trillion proposal last night, but it’s unlikely to go anywhere in the Senate. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Insider Trader: The rally in Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) continued on Friday, as the home goods retailer added another 9.9% on top of yesterday’s more than 25% surge! Needless to say, it was the top performer once again among all ZU services. The company reported strong quarterly results recently, which included its first comps growth since 2016. BBBY is now up nearly 124% in the portfolio since being added on July 17. The stock is at two-year highs and Tracey is wondering how long this will last. She may take some of this impressive profit off the table on Monday. Counterstrike: "Such confusing action this week. Let's face it, we have a really hard market all of a sudden with all these headlines and uncertainties. As we approach the election, I expect more of the same as October could be a really volatile month." -- Jeremy Mullin Options Trader: "The Employment Report also came out before the open, and that too helped underpin stocks. The headline number showed we gained 661K new jobs in the month of September. That was under the 894K consensus. But a closer look at the numbers shows private payrolls were much stronger at 877K vs. views for 900K. The 'miss' came mostly from the public sector which shed -216K jobs (which included temporary jobs such as census workers, etc.). The unemployment rate, however, dropped more than expected to 7.9% from last month's 8.4% and views for 8.2%. Although, the participation rate dipped as well to 61.4% from 61.7% and views for 61.8%. "All in all, it was a fine report and showed the economy continues to rebound. Even though the rebound in jobs has slowed a bit, we're well above where anybody predicted we'd be 6 months ago. Roughly half of the jobs lost have been regained, and the unemployment rate has been nearly cut in half from its worst levels as well. "The other thing helping stocks come off their lows on Friday was continued hopes for a stimulus bill. That hope was fueled when the Speaker of the House asked the airlines (which had threatened to furlough tens of thousands of workers by week's end), to hold off in doing so as aid for the airline industry was 'imminent'. By the close of trading on Friday, no such deal was available. And nobody knows what the 'imminent' deal would look like. But the word 'imminent' is a powerful word, and one can assume used only with supreme confidence that a deal is indeed coming. We shall see." -- Kevin Matras   Have a Great Weekend! Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Stocks Remained Hot in August

Stocks Remained Hot in August SPECIAL ALERT: The September episode of the Zacks Ultimate Strategy Session will be available for viewing no later than Thursday, September 9. Kevin Matras, Kevin Cook, Daniel Laboe, Dr. John Blank and Sheraz Mian will cover the investment landscape from several angles in this popular event. Don’t miss your chance to hear: ▪ Kevin Cook and John Agree to Disagree on where the S&P 500 will end in 2021 ▪ Kevin Matras answers your questions in Zacks Mailbag ▪ Sheraz and Daniel choose one portfolio to give feedback for improvement ▪ And much more Remember, we need your input. Please submit your questions for Zacks Mailbag and Portfolio Makeover by Thursday morning, September 2. Email now to mailbag@zacks.com. Then log on to Zacks.com and bookmark this page. The last day of August was certainly not representative of the full month. Stocks pulled back from record highs and finished in the red on Tuesday but were solidly higher over the past 31 days. The S&P climbed 2.9% for its seventh straight monthly gain, while the Dow managed to rise 1.2%. The biggest winner in August, though, was easily the NASDAQ, which soared 4% as investors were much kinder to the safe haven of tech as the delta variant complicated the recovery.   “For even greater perspective, since the pandemic lows in late March of last year (that’s 17 months), the S&P has been up in all but 3 of those months. That means the S&P has been up in 14 of the last 17 months. Pretty incredible,” said Kevin Matras in Options Trader. “And with the economy still growing, the jobs market still expanding, and with intertest rates still near zero (and likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future), it looks like there’s a lot more upside to go.” But for Tuesday, the S&P slipped 0.13% to 4522.68, while the Dow was off 0.11% (or about 39 points) to 35,360.73. The NASDAQ outperformed its counterparts like it did all month, but still finished in the red by 0.04% (or around 6 points) to 15,259.24. The S&P and NASDAQ had back-to-back record highs coming into the session and have been in the green for seven of the past nine days. Given such success during challenging times, it was no surprise to see stocks take a step back. Of course, it didn’t help that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index slipped to 133.8 in August, which was well short of expectations at 123 and July’s print of 125.1. The data suggests that the delta variant and rising inflation are impacting consumer decisions. But this is a week full of economic data. The ISM manufacturing and construction spending reports are scheduled for tomorrow. And Wednesday also brings the ADP employment report, which is the precursor for the Government Employment Situation on Friday. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Stocks Under $10: A number of small-cap biotech names are starting to recover after slipping this summer. One of these rebounds is Flexion Therapeutics (FLXN), a specialty pharmaceutical company that develops and sells pain therapies. It has one approved drug called Zilretta to treat osteoarthritis pain in the knee. And they’re expanding the use of the drug to other areas of the body, such as the shoulders. FLXN also has other indications in the pipeline. Earnings estimates are on the rise, but the biotech is still not making money yet. However, revenue growth was 82% year over year in the most recent quarter, while price to sales of 2.8x is pretty low for an early stage biotech. Read the full write-up for more. In other news, this portfolio had two of the best performers among all ZU names today as GT Biopharma (GTBP) rose 6.1% and Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) advanced 5.1%. Surprise Trader: Buying a property is one thing, but maintaining it is something completely different. That’s where a company like ABM Industries (ABM) comes in. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) provides integrated facility solutions, such as janitorial, energy, electrical & lighting, landscape & turf, HVAC and even parking, among many other services. It has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the past four quarters, and now has a positive Earnings ESP of 2.7% for its next report after the bell on Wednesday, September 9. Dave added ABM on Tuesday with a 12.5% allocation, while also selling Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). See the complete commentary for more on today’s action. Insider Trader: It’s been less than a week since Digital Turbine (APPS) was added to the portfolio, but this provider of products and solutions to mobile operators is already a top mover. The stock was easily the best performer among all ZU names on Tuesday by climbing more than 14% after news that it would join the S&P MidCap 400 index. Tracey picked up APPS last Friday after three directors added during August.   Zacks Short Sell List: The portfolio cashed in a double-digit winner on Tuesday while swapping out three positions for this week's adjustment. The stocks that were short-covered today included: • Peloton (PTON, +16.6%) • Autodesk (ADSK, +4.8%) • The AZEK Co. (AZEK) The new buys that replaced these names were: • Intuit (INTU) • JD.com (JD) • StoneCo (STNE) Learn more about this emotion-free portfolio that takes advantage of falling and volatile markets by reading the Short Sell List Trader Guide. Headline Trader: "We are entering the historically weakest month of the year for investments. The S&P 500 has, on average, surrendered about 0.7% of its value in September over the past 4 decades of trading (2019 was no exception with a 4.2% drop). "This doesn't mean that we are guaranteed to lose ground in this upcoming month, but it does raise the odds of a broader market decline. Market participants have been trading on self-fulfilling prophecies since the pandemic began, but will September mark a deviation from this trend?" -- Dan Laboe See You in September, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

"Tired, Divided, & Dejected" Canadians Give Trudeau Liberals Another Minority Government In Election

"Tired, Divided, & Dejected" Canadians Give Trudeau Liberals Another Minority Government In Election Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won another minority government in Canada’s federal elections held amidst the pandemic. The Epoch Times' Isaac Teo reports that while not all ballots are counted yet and mail-in ballots are to be counted in coming days, Liberals secured enough seats to be able to form a minority government, but will remain short of the 170 seats required to form a majority government. The Liberal Party, promising to continue its progressive path on climate action and finishing “the fight against COVID-19,” won or was leading in 156 ridings in the early hours of Tuesday, close to its 155 seats at dissolution. The opposition Conservatives, touting the party’s platform for “Canada’s recovery,” won or were leading in 121 ridings, close to their 119 seats at dissolution. Bloc Québécois, which continued its Quebec-first message throughout the campaign, won or was leading in 27 ridings, close to its 32 seats the party held at dissolution. The NDP, which was competing for the progressive votes with the Liberals and counting on the popularity of leader Jagmeet Singh, won or was leading in 21 ridings, also close to its 24 seats at dissolution. The Greens held on to the two seats they had at dissolution, while leader Annamie Paul failed to win in her riding of Toronto Centre. Long-time Green MP Elizabeth May won in her BC riding while fellow BC Green incumbent Paul Manly lost in his riding, but the loss was offset with Green candidate Mike Morrice winning in the Kitchener Centre riding. Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party didn’t win any seats, including in Bernier’s riding of Beauce in Quebec, which was won by the incumbent Conservative candidate. The party, which had campaigned on upholding personal liberties and fighting for COVID-19 vaccine choice, increased its share of national vote to over 5 percent as of the early hours of Tuesday, up from less than 2 percent in 2019. Throughout the campaign, the Trudeau Liberals had defended their decision to call an election only two years after the last one, when they lost their majority in the 2019 election, saying Canadians needed to decide who will lead the country toward ending the pandemic. Both leaders of the leading parties remained defiant in their post-election speeches, although Trudeau was expecting to win a majority, and Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole to form government. “You are sending us back to work, with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to brighter days ahead,” Trudeau said in his victory speech in Montreal. “I see Canadians standing together; together in your determination to end this pandemic, together for real climate action, for $10 a day child care, for homes that are in reach for middle class families, for our shared journey on the path of reconciliation.” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and his family watch early election results in Oshawa, Ont., on Sept. 20, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld) In his concession speech in Oshawa, O’Toole said “Canadians did not give Mr. Trudeau the majority mandate he wanted.” “In fact, Canadians sent him back with another minority at the cost of $600 million and deeper divisions in our great country,” he said. “I challenged the prime minister to put the unity of this country and the well being of its people first and I told him, if he thinks he can threaten Canadians with another election in 18 months, the Conservative Party will be ready.” The final vote count of the election will be announced once the approximately 800,000 mail-in ballots are counted. Counting on those ballots will begin on Tuesday. However, as Cory Morgan writes at The Epoch Times, the biggest losers in the 2021 federal election are Canadians. At a cost of over $600 million dollars and the disruption of our lives for over a month, we find ourselves nearly exactly where we began. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was accused of holding an election about nothing and the results are reflecting that. We are tired, divided, and dejected, and it all appears to have served no purpose. It is astounding how similar the 2021 election results are to the 2019 outcome. While he remains holding a minority government, Trudeau will not need to fear losing a confidence vote any time soon. Even though wasn’t given a clear mandate to govern, Canadians will not put up with being sent to the polls again soon. Trudeau is going to have to consolidate his leadership, though, and quickly. While the Liberal Party remains in power, insiders can’t be happy with the failure to grab a majority government in this election. The blame will fall upon Trudeau and many party members will not want to give him another kick at the electoral cat. While another election may not be immediately imminent, it likely will come within two years. Those within the Liberal Party who want a new leader are going to act to unseat him sooner rather than later. Trudeau will have his hands full keeping his party loyal at bay. Regionally, the nation is as divided as ever. While this election campaign didn’t have as much inter-regional vitriol than past ones have had, the outcome shows a clear regional split within Canada. The prairies went almost entirely Conservative, while the rest of the nation went predominantly Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois remains strong within Quebec, and interior BC has shunned the Liberals. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole held his ground but alienated much of his base as he took on a campaign of compromise in hopes of making a breakthrough in central Canada that never materialized. Small-c conservatives are going to want to move the party back to traditional conservative values while O’Toole’s supporters will want the party to hold the line. Many will be asking what the point of pragmatism was if it didn’t move the dial. As with every other party, the seat count for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP didn’t change much. NDP supporters hoping for a return to the heyday of Jack Layton’s days are surely disappointed but the party held its own. The federal NDP isn’t as inclined to tearing out its own leaders as conservative parties tend to be. Singh may choose to move on or may keep leading. Unlike other leaders, the choice will likely be his. The PPC failed to win a seat and this will make their survival difficult in years to come. They impacted the results but didn’t garner enough votes to be fully blamed for the Liberal victory. They established a solid base of support and surprised the country with their momentum. That said, it is tough to stay in the spotlight without a seat in parliament. Their support is based predominantly on the movement to resist COVID-19 restrictions, and they will need to broaden their appeal beyond that or that support level will become a hard ceiling for them. They made inroads, yet still may not endure as a lasting party. Time will tell. Annamie Paul of the Green Party failed to win her own seat. I suspect that she will step down as leader soon. She was treated terribly by her own party and won’t have the anchor of a seat to secure her position. With a couple of seats in the parliament and an established brand, the Green Party will endure with a new leader and maintain its niche in politics. Elizabeth May won her seat and she has been less than supportive of Paul. Nobody can look at the 2021 election and say that it was a good thing for Canada. There truly was no winner. Every leader is now in a tenuous position within his or her party. No new visions were put forth in the campaign to be embraced or rejected by Canadians. We don’t feel a sense of renewal or new direction, we only feel exhaustion and frustration and it all appears to have been for nothing. The 2021 election will go down as the $600 million dollar stalemate. What a colossal waste of resources, both fiscal and emotional. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/21/2021 - 07:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 21st, 2021

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 18 min. ago

CDC Panel Considers Delaying Booster Jabs Decision By 1 Month To "Wait For More Evidence"

CDC Panel Considers Delaying Booster Jabs Decision By 1 Month To "Wait For More Evidence" Last night, the FDA - as expected - authorized the emergency use of booster doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA jab for patients over the age of 65, the immuno-compromised, and the occupationally vulnerable. Now, it's the CDC's turn. The panel is preparing to wrap up a two-day meeting on Wednesday, where it is deliberating a more specific set of guidelines regarding the booster jab and who will initially be eligible, and when. Before we get into specifics, it's worth noting that after the first day of discussion, some of the advisors were so befuddled by the rationale for boosters that they suggested putting off the CDC's decision for a month to wait for more evidence. Such a decision would probably have driven the Biden Administration crazy. According to the AP, "the uncertainties were yet another reminder that the science surrounding boosters is more complicated than the Biden administration suggested when the president and his top aides rolled out their plan at the White House last month." On Wednesday, "the CDC panelists heard a series of presentations Wednesday outlining the knotty state of science on boosters. On one hand, the COVID-19 vaccines continue to offer strong protection against severe illness, hospitalization and death. On the other hand, there are signs of more low-grade infections among the vaccinated as immunity wanes." Ultimately, the function of the CDC panel is to "refine exactly who will be eligible" as Politico put it. For the booster jab, the focus will be on defining who's at "high risk". The discussions are expected to conclude Thursday afternoon. Politico has five key takeaways from day one, and what to expect on day two (text courtesy of Politico): The goals of vaccination might be changing: Data from the large clinical trials used to authorize Covid-19 vaccines in the United States suggested they offered strong protection against even mild infection, raising hopes that the shots would confer so-called sterilizing immunity — preventing vaccinated people from spreading the virus. But over time, scientists have realized that the vaccines' ability to ward off mild infection is waning, although protection against severe disease and death remains strong overall. CDC panel member Sarah Long, a pediatrics professor at Drexel University's College of Medicine, urged her colleagues to differentiate between ensuring the vaccines prevent hospitalizations versus all infection. "I don't think there's any hope that a vaccine, such as the ones we have, will prevent infection after the first maybe couple of weeks that you have those extraordinary immediate responses," she said. The elderly show the clearest need for boosters at this point: Antibodies from vaccination decrease over time among all age groups. But vaccine recipients 80 and older develop lower levels of neutralizing antibodies post-vaccination than younger adults do, said Natalie Thornburg, a respiratory virus immunology specialist at the CDC. That means that older people's antibodies may drop to undetectable levels faster, at which point their memory immune cells play a larger role in protecting them against Covid-19. But older people also may produce fewer memory cells than younger people whose immune systems are stronger — suggesting that older people would benefit from a third vaccine dose. Ruth Link-Gelles of the U.S. Public Health Service said current data shows significant drops in the efficacy of both the Pfizer and Moderna shots in people 65 and older in the time the Delta variant has dominated the domestic infection landscape. But Thornburg cautioned against viewing vaccines' protection as an on-off switch. "Immunity is not simply a binary" in which individuals are either protected or not against the coronavirus, she said. Most people are able to maintain some level of cellular immunity, which is likely enough to protect vaccine recipients from severe disease even after antibody levels drop off. Nursing-home residents face special risks, even with a boost Boosters may not be enough to fully protect residents of nursing homes, according to modeling data presented by Rachel Slayton of the U.S. Public Health Service. While boosters may help reduce the number of cases in long-term care facilities, she said, that depends on their inherent efficacy and on the vaccination coverage among facility staff. High community transmission will likely lead to more infections in nursing homes because staff can more easily import the virus, Slayton said. It's unclear whether booster doses could help curb transmission of the virus among vaccinated individuals. Experts are worried about confusing the public Members of the CDC's vaccine advisory committee expressed concerns Wednesday about green-lighting boosters from one brand over others with authorized Covid vaccines available to Americans, noting the potential for public perception and logistical issues. The panel is tasked with recommending to the CDC how the FDA's vaccine policy should be implemented in real-world settings. Long suggested that the group wait for more information on so-called mix-and-match doses — the ability to vaccinate someone with one brand's primary series with the option for a different manufacturer's booster later — before signing off on just the Pfizer booster, asking “whether we’re willing to panic half the recipients of Moderna." “I don’t want to jeopardize anyone," she said of delaying a booster decision. "At the same time, it’ll be very, very difficult to have a little less than half of the population who would be eligible to receive" a booster if people can only get the brand that matches their initial series. Moderna has asked FDA to authorize its booster shot, and Johnson & Johnson has begun submitting booster data to the agency with an eye to filing an application. Amanda Cohn of the CDC urged committee members to consider the recommendations they're making now as "interim policies" that will change as more data surfaces. The National Institutes of Health is conducting a study on mixing vaccine doses, with results expected later this year. "This is a rapidly moving target," she said. The booster rollout could be messy Still, there are a number of challenges to approving only one brand's vaccine for boosting. Immunocompromised Americans have already been permitted to seek out third doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines because of concerns they may not have mounted a sufficient immune response to the first two shots. While they've been told they can receive the other brand's shot if they can't access the one they initially got, FDA isn't expected to allow mixing brands for people outside that category, which could sow further confusion. More than 98 percent of Americans participating in a CDC safety monitoring program who have gotten additional doses stuck with the same brand they originally received. But it's unclear how many of those studied actually fell under the CDC's definition of immunocompromised since patients only have to attest to their eligibility — no doctor's note required — meaning there are few obstacles keeping people interested in boosters from acquiring them, anyway. Declining to allow mixing Pfizer and Moderna doses beyond the immunocompromised could make administering boosters in long-term care facilities difficult if residents received different brands, said Molly Howell, an immunization program manager at the North Dakota Department of Health. “I don’t know that it’s realistic to keep going back with different brands," she said. * * * Ironically, the deliberations on the booster jabs are happening during the slowest week for first-dose vaccinations since July (despite NY's mandate looming on Monday). Remember, all of the deliberation so far have  focused on the Pfizer jab. Regulators will decide on boosters for people who have received the Moderna or J&J jabs in the coming weeks. One thing we already know: Pfizer boosters won't be recommended for patients who received a different brand the first time around (though exceptions to this have already and will likely continue to be made). Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 09:34.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 18 min. ago

Pfizer CEO On Providing 500 Million Vaccines To Low Income Countries

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Wednesday, September 22. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Pfizer CEO On Providing 500 Million Vaccines To Low Income […] Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Wednesday, September 22. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Pfizer CEO On Providing 500 Million Vaccines To Low Income Countries MEG TIRRELL: That special guest is Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer. Albert, thanks for being with us this morning. Let's start with the news of the day, at least 500 million doses add to a previous agreement for the same number. They started shipping last month and will continue over the next year we understand. Tell us about your expectation for what these agreements will do for the course of the pandemic. ALBERT BOURLA: I think they will enable way more equitable access to our vaccines. When we started, Meg, more than a year, we're going to begin with the pandemic. It was always in our minds that we need to have a vaccine that will be available to all and the first thing that we had to do was to develop the vaccine because now it's considered given but the months ago, nobody thought that this could be done. The second was to manufacture enough so that everybody will have and we are gearing up our manufacturing capacity. Right now, at the end of the month, we will have manufactured 2 billion doses, 500 of which will be gone to the low- and middle-income countries. By the end of the quarter 3 billion doses, 1 billion of which will go to the low- and middle-income countries. And the third was to set the price that will enable everybody to access. As you know the price from the high-income countries is the cost of takeaway meal and this price for the government because their citizens are paying nothing. But for the middle-income countries, we are charging half of this price and the low-income countries we are charging basically at non-for-profit. The US government stepping once more 1 billion doses will be donated to the poorest of the countries, not to the middle and low but to the poorest countries, and that will not be given to them at the non-for-profit price, it will be given free because US is covering the cost. So, I think it is a great news for humanity and frankly it is great news for us because we are very proud that our vaccine will save the lives of people around the world. TIRRELL: How do you respond then to criticisms like from former CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden, who has been pointing out on Twitter over the last week that he thinks this inequity is quote, “shameful.” He says, “While focusing on selling expensive vaccines to rich countries, Moderna and Pfizer are doing next to nothing to close the global gap in vaccine supply.” How do you respond to criticisms like that? BOURLA: Well I respond that already we have seen 500 million doses to low- and middle-income countries, that we will see a billion doses by the end of this year, not in the near future, by the end of this year. And we will do at least 1 billion doses next year and I think the facts are speaking for themselves. TIRRELL: Is there more that Pfizer could do? There's also some focus on the infrastructure in developing countries and there's been criticisms of the Biden administration for delivering perhaps vaccines but then not delivering the sort of cold chain functionality to be able to store and move those vaccines around or helping get vaccinators to be able to help roll out these vaccines. What more do you think can be done to expedite all of this? BOURLA: Clearly there's more that can be done in terms of infrastructure in the poorest countries so that they can absorb vaccines so this kind of technology that they need special conditions like ultra-cold chain, etc. I think this is something that WHO is doing and this is something that was ourselves, we are working very intensively to help, although it is not let’s say our direct responsibility is to provide the vaccine but we are working also on the last mile, how we can assist, so that they can move eventually this vaccine to the citizens. TIRRELL: There's also been a big focus on ramping up production of mRNA vaccines in these developing countries so that they're not dependent on manufacturers elsewhere providing them. You do say or Uğur Şahin, your partner at BioNTech, says in your release today that you are exploring how to build the sustainable mRNA production infrastructure in low-income countries over the mid- and long-term. It seems like that is not a near term goal necessarily just because does it take that long to build this up, could scaling up happen in these countries any faster than it's happening already? BOURLA: Well yes, it will take a very long time to be able to build infrastructure that it is able to handle this higher level of technology. This is not easy. This is not making, you know, any type of goods so this is really, really high-end, regard not only sophisticated investments but thousands of people that they are highly skilled to do that. I don't say that it is impossible to be done but it will take time. TIRRELL: And of course, here in the United States, we're all focused on boosters, who's going to get their third shot and when. We're expecting an FDA decision on that today or tomorrow and CDC will, will vote. How do you in this position of deciding, where to take orders from and where to deliver things, respond to the pressures you get from the World Health Organization which is saying people shouldn't get boosters until the end of the year until more people have gotten their first doses. How do you weigh all those pressures coming in? BOURLA: Look, I think there's, as a whole that the decision to provide a booster should be made on the merits of the science. This is not correct to say that I will not give boosters to one because I prefer to give primary dose to someone else. The second is as I said that we should not be in, we should not resolve it with a “or,” we should resolve it with an “and.” Boosters should be given and other doses should be given to the other countries and this is the meaning of this agreement that we're doing today with the United States. And the third I would say that they, doses for this year have been allocated long ago. Everybody has placed their orders and with the first orders placed, first deliveries are coming out and so that will not change even if the boosters are approved which I expect will be. We will not give more to the countries that are approving boosters so that they can do the boosters. We will give the quantities to everyone that we have committed to give this year, and then as I said, this year, we're going to do a billion doses to the lower, middle-income countries. BECKY QUICK: Hey, Albert, on that point, it just, we know that the FDA panel that met last week voted no on the original question was that booster shots would be available for anyone ages 16 and up. They did vote yes on a more qualified picture, people ages 65 and up, people who have comorbidities and, and people who were maybe exposed at work because of the jobs that they do, but that still leaves a big gap if the FDA eventually goes through and approves the ladder question, not the opening. On that first question, they said they didn't have enough science to prove it. The science that was put in front of them didn't prove that those ages 16 and up needed boosters. When will we see more science, what's the next step or are people just kind of left to fend for themselves at this point? BOURLA: I think time will bring data because everybody's collecting data and I’m sure pretty soon they will have more data so that they can reevaluate their recommendations. It is clear from the data that we have seen that we support it to the need to give broad recommendations. The majority of the committee clearly thought that this is not the right time for people to receive in earlier phases. So, they, I guess they will expect to see when is the right time. What I want to say is in pandemic typically, it's very difficult to come to the right time. You're coming either too early or too late. ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Albert, when you think about efficacy, there seems to be different definitions of efficacy in the United States versus Israel and people are measuring it differently. In some cases, it's hospitalization and death. In others, it's simply infection upfront. Do we have to redefine what efficacy really is and what it should be and what we're trying to avoid? BOURLA: I think science is to measure everything so and we should be very clear when you speak about efficacy, if you refer to efficacy against severe disease, or if we speak about efficacy in general in disease or infection, and the data for example for me is coming from all three categories is not that they're coming only for mild infections. They had seen drop in the protection against severe disease as well. SORKIN: Do you have a view on why it appears that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine seems to be lesser, at least at the moment, based on some of the numbers than the, than the Moderna vaccine. It appears that in the case of Moderna, it has a higher efficacy or at least more durable efficacy, is that a function of the fact that, it's that there's more of it, more vaccine, actually that's put in the arm? Is it a function of the fact that between the first and second dose, there's a longer wait period, four weeks rather than three weeks, what do you, or is it simply the timing of what we've seen in the studies? A lot of people got Pfizer earlier. BOURLA: I think that it is the wrong thing to start comparing vaccines, particularly in public and I don't think I would like to do it. But nevertheless, given your, your question, I'm not convinced that one is better than the other or it lasted longer than the other because of the reasons that we just said that when those studies compare, they don't exhaust from the time of the second dose and also they don't adjust from the fact that Pfizer was given way earlier to elder, high risk people. And so, we are comparing more months of since the first dose from Pfizer and very different population. But again, I said that the both of them are wonderful vaccines, I don't want to make comparisons and those that make comparisons, they are wrong. QUICK: Albert, can you give us an update on where things stand for the vaccine approval at least emergency use authorization for kids ages five to 11. We've heard a lot and the latest that we've gotten is maybe available by Halloween. But what does that actually mean? Does it really mean that our kids might actually get to the shots by then, will it be fully distributed? Is it going to be hard to find this because I know you have to give different vial sizes so as a result it's kind of gearing up the entire process again like we did at the beginning of the year. BOURLA: We are going to be ready once FDA approves the vaccine, provided that they will approve it, to be able to distribute it. And I know that we will submit our data pretty soon. The data are very positive, but I cannot comment when FDA will approve it. This is absolutely up to them to take their time to do their review and do the approval, the time that they're comfortable if they approve it. TIRRELL: And Albert, you actually got data I think a little earlier than people expected in that age group five to 11. What are you expecting in terms of younger kids asking completely unbiased as a parent of a two-and-a-half-year-old? BOURLA: Meg, as you know, we are always coming ahead of people's expectations so I hope that we will not disappoint them. TIRRELL: So, your CFO Frank D’Amelio had suggested perhaps you're about a month behind for younger children. Is that the timeline you're looking at for down to age two, or down to age six months? BOURLA: Well yeah, that's one to two months I would say, somewhere there. TIRRELL: Okay, and just to go back to that booster discussion that that Becky was talking about. Were you surprised that the panel voted to narrow the recommendation for, for whom, who should get boosters here in the US as we're seeing them given so broadly in Israel and even to everybody over the age of 50 in the UK? BOURLA: Yes, I was surprised but you know this is not about me being surprised. This is about the committee which is composed by renowned scientists. They have very high integrity. They have high expertise and they came to this conclusion. Our scientists also have very high integrity and they have very high expertise and they came to different conclusion. Israel scientists, UK scientists is different from German scientists also they have high expertise, but this is the role of committees. They have responsibility to recommend and then the administration has the responsibility to implement health care policies that they are important. And, you know, I think we should let the system work. QUICK: With all of the countries that you just mentioned, is there one Albert that has been the easiest to work with or the most difficult to work with and maybe the administration maybe the bureaucracy that you deal with. What, what would you say? BOURLA: I would say that all the candidates have stepped up and they are wonderful and frankly, I had the opportunity because of that, to, to connect personally with state leaders and with administration of many countries and I understand there are going to do the best for their people and they have to deal with very tough decisions and sometimes they get it right. Sometimes they get it wrong. But they are all having the best of intentions so I wouldn’t separate anyone on this. TIRRELL: Alright, Albert. I think that's all the time we've got. We really appreciate you being with us this morning and we look forward to all of these updates coming up. Thanks so much. BOURLA: Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Meg. Thank you. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 9:35 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk15 hr. 34 min. ago

A New Campaign Asks Facebook Users to Log Off. Will It Have an Impact?

The campaign comes in the wake of a series of damning reports last week from the Wall Street 'Journal' A coalition of advocacy groups is calling on Facebook and Instagram users to log out of both platforms for one day in November to hold the company to account for “irresponsibility,” in a new campaign launched Wednesday. The Facebook Logout campaign takes aim at what it says is the company’s role in a series of recent scandals, including the Jan. 6 insurrection and a pattern of “ignoring disinformation for profit.” The campaign comes in the wake of a series of reports last week in the Wall Street Journal that revealed executives at Facebook knew its photo and video sharing platform Instagram had a negative impact on teen girls’ mental health, that it did little to act on staff reports of trafficking and other human rights violations, and that its executives ignored warnings that a change to content-ranking algorithms boosted divisive content and sensationalism. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The Facebook Logout campaign asks users to pledge to log off from Facebook and Instagram, its photo-sharing subsidiary, for 24 hours on Nov. 10. The campaign has a list of demands, including that CEO Mark Zuckerberg should step down, and that Facebook should immediately halt its “Instagram for Kids” project. It is spearheaded by Kairos, a tech-focused racial justice group. Facebook’s most recent earnings report shows that 98.5% of its revenue comes from its advertising business, which uses reams of personal data about users to predict what kinds of ads they are likely to click on, then sells businesses the opportunity to place those ads. “Companies like Facebook would have us believe that people are simply users of their platform and we should be grateful for the privilege of using Facebook, when in fact the opposite is true,” Kairos’ executive director Mariana Ruiz Fermat told TIME. “Through this campaign, we hope to change the way we think of ourselves as ‘users’ and our relationship to platforms.” The Facebook Logout campaign’s organizers are confident that user action can still have an impact. “Users logging off creates momentum that feeds into the need for greater regulation,” says Rishi Bharwani of Accountable Tech, a Washington-based tech reform advocacy group that is part of the coalition working on the Logout campaign. “These things all reinforce each other and create a groundswell of support for meaningful change.” But in a world where social media is integral to our human relationships, as well as being the primary organizing tool for social activists, can a grassroots boycott of social media ever get off the ground? “Facebook is everywhere. I got up this morning and posted about this campaign on Facebook,” says Jelani Drew-Davi, the Facebook Logout campaign director at Kairos. “The focus of this campaign is showing people power, and showing that we do hold power as Facebook and Instagram users,” Drew-Davi says. “We don’t have to be complacent with whatever Facebook wants to do. Long term, we’re trying to change people’s mindset.” It’s not the first time a campaign has attempted to convince users to drop the social network. Amid backlash to the Cambridge Analytica data scandal in 2018, the hashtag #DeleteFacebook trended online. The company’s stock price fell, but soon recovered. Facebook’s valuation has more than doubled since then, as advertisers continue to spend big money to reach users with targeted ads, even as the company’s reputation takes blow after blow. When advertisers have taken a stand, it has had little impact. During the Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020, more than 1,000 companies, including Ford and Coca-Cola, temporarily halted buying ads on Facebook after CEO Mark Zuckerberg refused to remove a post from President Donald Trump that said “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.” (The Southern Poverty Law Center said the post “glorifies violence against protesters,” especially protesters of color.) Again Facebook’s stock price dropped but quickly recovered. Ford, Coca-Cola and many of the other advertisers involved in the boycott have since returned to posting ads on the social network. “Black and brown people are the people who are most harmed when tech does things wrong,” Drew-Davi says. “That’s why it’s really important for us to take action from a racial equity lens.” Kairos hopes that the Facebook Logout campaign’s approach will be more effective than past attempts by balancing the symbolic power of a mass log-off while harnessing social media as a tool for collective organizing. “People use Facebook, not only to connect with each other, but also to organize for social change,” Drew-Davi says. “That’s the reason we’re not saying delete your account, or do it right now, even. All we’re asking is: take the pledge and join us later to log off. This is an opportunity to show our collective power.”.....»»

Category: topSource: time16 hr. 45 min. ago

How Gavin Newsom beat back the California gubernatorial recall effort

Newsom last week survived the biggest test of his political career, but with nearly all of the votes in, the results reveal some intriguing dynamics. Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to the press while visiting Melrose Leadership Academy in Oakland, Calif., on September 15, 2021. Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California last Tuesday survived the biggest test of his leadership by rallying voters against a gubernatorial recall election fueled by grievances over COVID-19 restrictions, housing affordability, uneven economic opportunities, and homelessness.While the eventual recall was a blowout in the governor's favor, there were underlying issues that seriously threatened his standing earlier in the summer - the lack of urgency among Democratic voters, minimal engagement with the state's growing Latino population, and the conservative buzz surrounding radio talk show host and first-time political candidate Larry Elder, who was able to channel the frustrations of millions of state residents.As California continues to count its remaining ballots, a fuller picture is emerging of Newsom's win.With 92% of the vote in, voters rejected the recall effort by a 63% to 37% margin, nearly identical to the 2018 gubernatorial election results, when Newsom defeated Republican businessman John Cox by a 62% to 38% spread.But the huge victory also exposed Newsom's vulnerability in not connecting with more voters on a personal level.Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at the University of Southern California and the University of California-Berkeley, pointed out that Newsom was able to win despite his fairly average standing among many Democratic voters."The final results obscure the fact that he's never been particularly well-loved, even by the base of his own party," he said.This account, based on interviews with California political observers and the recount data, focuses on the governor's broad victory and what it says about the future of Golden State politics. President Joe Biden speaks during a rally in support of California Gov. Gavin Newsom at Long Beach City College on September 13, 2021. David McNew/Getty Images Newsom overcame complacency and turned out Democrats California has become such a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level that now-President Joe Biden's win over former President Donald Trump (63.5% to 34%) last fall was a foregone conclusion.While Biden received over 11 million votes - a record for a presidential candidate in the state - Trump received over 6 million votes, which was the highest number of votes for any Republican candidate in state history.Democrats currently make up 46.5% of all registered voters in California, while Republicans make up 24% and independents comprise of 23%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California - which by the numbers would indicate a huge advantage for Newsom.However, voter turnout is key, and tepid party support, combined with Republican enthusiasm about Elder's candidacy, threatened to derail Newsom, especially as he struggled to connect with some of the very same voters who sent him to the Governor's Mansion nearly three years ago.In a Berkeley-IGS survey that was released in July, registered Democrats, by a nearly 30% margin, were less likely than Republicans to demonstrate a high level of engagement in the recall election - one of many polls that caused consternation among Democratic leaders.Conservatives, incensed by what they felt were heavy-handed COVID-19 restrictions that hurt small businesses and stifled the economy, were animated over potentially recalling Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor and lieutenant governor. The July Berkeley survey showed that 33% of the voters who were likely to vote in the recall would be Republicans - a troubling sign for the governor.After recalibrating and partaking in a rigorous campaign schedule, including rallies with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Newsom was able to to change the dynamics of the race by emphasizing Elder's opposition to key issues including abortion rights and COVID-19 vaccine mandates. California gubernatorial recall election candidate Larry Elder speaks at his election night party in Costa Mesa on September 14, 2021. ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images Larry Elder was not an appealing candidate to non-RepublicansIn the previous California gubernatorial recall election in 2003, then-Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was booted from office and replaced with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.Schwarzenegger - a Hollywood leading man famous for action movies like "The Terminator" represented a moderate wing of Republicanism that was still influential in the state at the time - won over his party and peeled off independents and even some Democrats. This year, Democrats overwhelmingly opposed against the recall on the first ballot question and largely abandoned picking another candidate to become governor if the recall was successful.Elder, a fierce advocate of small government who opposed the minimum wage, dismissed gender wage gaps, balked at gun-control measures, and supported charter schools and school choice, was unable to garner much support beyond the Republican base, which comprised of roughly 25% of the electorate in the recall election.According to exit polling conducted for CNN and other outlets by Edison Research, 94% of Democrats opposed the recall, while 89% of Republicans supported it, with independents narrowly rejecting the effort by a 52%-48% margin.While Elder currently sits at 47.8% of the vote, having earned over 3.1 million votes on the ballot question designating a gubernatorial successor, the rejection of the recall effort at the top of the ballot kept Newsom in office.Schnur told Insider that Elder's positions allowed Newsom to effectively use Trumpism as a political foil."Newsom was originally having some trouble framing this as a campaign against Donald Trump, primarily because Trump wasn't on the ballot or in the White House," he said. "Elder gave Newsom a way of framing the anti-Trump argument in the present tense. Instead of talking about the former president, he was able to talk about something that voters were facing now, and that helped him immeasurably." A sign at the Modoc National Forest. Bernard Friel/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images California has 'shades of blue in many communities of red'The modern image of California is largely shaped by its glittering Los Angeles skyline and the tech corridors of the San Francisco Bay Area, but the state is much more conservative in its interior stretches, where the election results of many counties largely mirrored the 2020 election.In rural northern California, counties like Lassen (84%), Modoc (78%), Tehama (69%), and Shasta (67%), voted overwhelmingly in favor of the recall - and subsequently these counties strongly backed Elder as their top choice in the second ballot question.While Elder's strong conservative views, including his opposition to broad COVID-19 restrictions, appealed to many in these counties, as well as a significant number of residents in the state's exurban communities, it wasn't enough to appeal to a wider audience - which has been the dilemma of the California GOP for years.The state party, which launched the careers of former Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, has not won a gubernatorial race since Schwarzenegger's reelection bid in 2006.Mindy Romero, the founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, told Insider that while the state's political ideology is more multifaceted than its reputation suggests, the GOP in recent years has continued to elevate candidates that lack appeal on a statewide level."The problem for the Republican Party is that politics is local," she said. "I actually say that we're not deep blue. I say that we're shades of blue in many communities of red. In those red communities, we have a lot of elected officials, including members of Congress, who are Republicans. Some of the messaging that they use that works in those communities is antithetical to many Democrats. But at a local level, the messaging works and helps them politically."She added: "It's hard for Republicans to make ground, because locally, they're going to put forth candidates that are going to be more to the right." Gov. Gavin Newsom greets volunteers who were working the phone banks to help campaign against the gubernatorial recall at Hecho en Mexico restaurant in East Los Angeles on August 14, 2021. Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de León, California state Sen. Maria Elena Durazo, California Assemblyman Miguel Santiago, and other Latino dignitaries were on hand to support the governor. Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Latino voters, a growing slice of the electorate, backed NewsomLatino residents now make up 39% of California's population and are the largest ethnic group in the state - according to the exit polling conducted by Edison Research, they made up 24% of the electorate in the recall election.For much of the summer, Democrats fretted that they weren't doing enough to appeal to this critical slice of the electorate, especially as Elder campaigned hard for Latino, Black, and Asian votes.However, in representing nearly a quarter of the vote in the recall election, the Latino vote was key in the eventual outcome.According to the Edison exit polling, Latino voters rejected the recall effort by a 60%-40% margin.But there were signs of concern for Democrats, even with the broad victory.Newsom actually lost ground with Latinos, albeit slightly, from his 2018 gubernatorial victory, when he carried the group with 64% of the vote, according to NBC exit polling.For Democrats, the question remains: How can the party engage with this diverse slice of the electorate in a meaningful way?Romero told Insider that both parties have a chance to improve their relationship with Latinos, but said that Democrats, who count on the group as part of their base, should have done more outreach this year."Both parties have a chance with the Latino vote because it's not monolithic," she said. "Newsom's campaign did not reach out to Latinos as it could have. There was lot of work by community organizations and by unions that it looks like helped bring out a lot of Latinos, but in terms of the party-driven work, it was either late or it didn't happen in the way that you would expect."She added: "Democrats will have to work on addressing Latino issues and having better relationships with Latino organizations, and essentially not taking the Latino vote for granted."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt19 hr. 18 min. ago

Futures Bounce On Evergrande Reprieve With Fed Looming

Futures Bounce On Evergrande Reprieve With Fed Looming Despite today's looming hawkish FOMC meeting in which Powell is widely expected to unveil that tapering is set to begin as soon as November and where the Fed's dot plot may signal one rate hike in 2022, futures climbed as investor concerns over China's Evergrande eased after the property developer negotiated a domestic bond payment deal. Commodities rallied while the dollar was steady. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 flipped from losses to gains as China’s central bank boosted liquidity when it injected a gross 120BN in yuan, the most since January... ... and investors mulled a vaguely-worded statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment.  S&P 500 E-minis were up 23.0 points, or 0.53%, at 7:30 a.m. ET. Dow E-minis were up 199 points, or 0.60%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 44.00 points, or 0.29%. Among individual stocks, Fedex fell 5.8% after the delivery company cut its profit outlook on higher costs and stalled growth in shipments. Morgan Stanley says it sees the company’s 1Q issues getting “tougher from here.” Commodity-linked oil and metal stocks led gains in premarket trade, while a slight rise in Treasury yields supported major banks. However, most sectors were nursing steep losses in recent sessions. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers: Adobe (ADBE US) down 3.1% after 3Q update disappointed the high expectations of investors, though the broader picture still looks solid, Morgan Stanley said in a note Freeport McMoRan (FCX US), Cleveland- Cliffs (CLF US), Alcoa (AA US) and U.S. Steel (X US) up 2%-3% premarket, following the path of global peers as iron ore prices in China rallied Aethlon Medical (AEMD US) and Exela Technologies (XELAU US) advance along with other retail traders’ favorites in the U.S. premarket session. Aethlon jumps 21%; Exela up 8.3% Other so-called meme stocks also rise: ContextLogic +1%; Clover Health +0.9%; Naked Brand +0.9%; AMC +0.5% ReWalk Robotics slumps 18% in U.S. premarket trading, a day after nearly doubling in value Stitch Fix (SFIX US) rises 15.7% in light volume after the personal styling company’s 4Q profit and sales blew past analysts’ expectations Hyatt Hotels (H US) seen opening lower after the company launches a seven-million-share stock offering Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US) shares fell as much as 17% in Tuesday extended trading after it said the FDA doesn’t agree with the change to the primary endpoint that has been implemented in the ongoing Phase III Ri-CoDIFy studies when combining the studies Marin Software (MRIN US) surged more than 75% Tuesday postmarket after signing a new revenue-sharing agreement with Google to develop its enterprise technology platforms and software products The S&P 500 had fallen for 10 of the past 12 sessions since hitting a record high, as fears of an Evergrande default exacerbated seasonally weak trends and saw investors pull out of stocks trading at lofty valuations. The Nasdaq fell the least among its peers in recent sessions, as investors pivoted back into big technology names that had proven resilient through the pandemic. Focus now turns to the Fed's decision, due at 2 p.m. ET where officials are expected to signal a start to scaling down monthly bond purchases (see our preview here).  The Fed meeting comes after a period of market volatility stoked by Evergrande’s woes. China’s wider property-sector curbs are also feeding into concerns about a slowdown in the economic recovery from the pandemic. “Chair Jerome Powell could hint at the tapering approaching shortly,” said Sébastien Barbé, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. “However, given the current uncertainty factors (China property market, Covid, pace of global slowdown), the Fed should remain cautious when it comes to withdrawing liquidity support.” Meanwhile, confirming what Ray Dalio said that the taper will just bring more QE, Governing Council member Madis Muller said the  European Central Bank may boost its regular asset purchases once the pandemic-era emergency stimulus comes to an end. “Dovish signals could unwind some of the greenback’s gains while offering relief to stock markets,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, wrote in emailed comments. A “hawkish shift would jolt markets, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar past the upper bound of recent ranges, while gold and equities would sell off hunting down the next levels of support.” China avoided a major selloff as trading resumed following a holiday, after the country’s central bank boosted its injection of short-term cash into the financial system. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index declined for a third day, dragged lower by Japan. Stocks were also higher in Europe. Basic resources - which bounced from a seven month low - and energy were among the leading gainers in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as commodity prices steadied after Beijing moved to contain fears of a spiraling debt crisis. Entain Plc rose more than 7%, extending Tuesday’s gain as it confirmed it received a takeover proposal from DraftKings Inc. Peer Flutter Entertainment Plc climbed after settling a legal dispute.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entain shares jump as much as 11% after DraftKings Inc. offered to acquire the U.K. gambling company for about $22.4 billion. Vivendi rises as much as 3.1% in Paris, after Tuesday’s spinoff of Universal Music Group. Legrand climbs as much as 2.1% after Exane BNP Paribas upgrades to outperform and raises PT to a Street-high of EU135. Orpea shares falls as much as 2.9%, after delivering 1H results that Jefferies (buy) says were a “touch” below consensus. Bechtle slides as much as 5.1% after Metzler downgrades to hold from buy, saying persistent supply chain problems seem to be weighing on growth. Sopra Steria drops as much as 4.1% after Stifel initiates coverage with a sell, citing caution on company’s M&A strategy Despite the Evergrande announcement, Asian stocks headed for their longest losing streak in more than a month amid continued China-related concerns, with traders also eying policy decisions from major central banks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7% in its third day of declines, with TSMC and Keyence the biggest drags. China’s CSI 300 tumbled as much as 1.9% as the local market reopened following a two-day holiday. However, the gauge came off lows after an Evergrande unit said it will make a bond interest payment and as China’s central bank boosted liquidity.  Taiwan’s equity benchmark led losses in Asia on Wednesday, dragged by TSMC after a two-day holiday, while markets in Hong Kong and South Korea were closed. Key stock gauges in Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam rose “A liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China accompanied the Evergrande announcement, which only served to bolster sentiment further,” according to DailyFX’s Thomas Westwater and Daniel Dubrovsky. “For now, it appears that market-wide contagion risk linked to a potential Evergrande collapse is off the table.” Japanese equities fell for a second day amid global concern over China’s real-estate sector, as the Bank of Japan held its key stimulus tools in place while flagging pressures on the economy. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 1%. Daikin and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 0.7% loss in the Nikkei 225. The BOJ had been expected to maintain its policy levers ahead of next week’s key ruling party election. Traders are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision due later for clues on the U.S. central banks plan for tapering stimulus. “Markets for some time have been convinced that the BOJ has reached the end of the line on normalization and will remain in a holding pattern on policy until at least April 2023 when Governor Kuroda is scheduled to leave,” UOB economist Alvin Liew wrote in a note. “Attention for the BOJ will now likely shift to dealing with the long-term climate change issues.” In the despotic lockdown regime that is Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,296.90, reversing an early decline in a rally led by mining and energy stocks. Banks closed lower for the fourth day in a row. Champion Iron was among the top performers after it was upgraded at Citi. IAG was among the worst performers after an earthquake caused damage to buildings in Melbourne. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 13,215.80 In FX, commodity currencies rallied as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles eased as China’s central bank boosted liquidity and investors reviewed a statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment. Overnight implied volatility on the pound climbed to the highest since March ahead of Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. The British pound weakened after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warnedthat people should prepare for longer-term high energy prices amid a natural-gas shortage that sent power costs soaring. Several U.K. power firms have stopped taking in new clients as small energy suppliers struggle to meet their previous commitments to sell supplies at lower prices. Overnight volatility in the euro rises above 10% for the first time since July ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision announcement. The Aussie jumped as much as 0.5% as iron-ore prices rebounded. Spot surged through option-related selling at 0.7240 before topping out near 0.7265 strikes expiring Wednesday, according to Asia- based FX traders.  Elsewhere, the yen weakened and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar pushed higher. In rates, the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury futures were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading, leaving yields cheaper by ~1.5bp from belly to long-end of the curve. The 10-year yield was at ~1.336% steepening the 2s10s curve by ~1bp as the front-end was little changed. Improved risk appetite weighed; with stock futures have recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as Evergrande concerns subside. Focal point for Wednesday’s session is FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.   FOMC is expected to suggest it will start scaling back asset purchases later this year, while its quarterly summary of economic projections reveals policy makers’ expectations for the fed funds target in coming years in the dot-plot update; eurodollar positions have emerged recently that anticipate a hawkish shift Bitcoin dropped briefly below $40,000 for the first time since August amid rising criticism from regulators, before rallying as the mood in global markets improved. In commodities, Iron ore halted its collapse and metals steadied. Oil advanced for a second day. Bitcoin slid below $40,000 for the first time since early August before rebounding back above $42,000.   To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,362.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 461.19 MXAP down 0.7% to 199.29 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 638.39 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,221.54 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,628.49 Sensex little changed at 59,046.84 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,296.94 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,140.51 Brent Futures up 1.5% to $75.47/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,775.15 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.26 German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.319% Euro little changed at $1.1725 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg What would it take to knock the U.S. recovery off course and send Federal Reserve policy makers back to the drawing board? Not much — and there are plenty of candidates to deliver the blow The European Central Bank will discuss boosting its regular asset purchases once the pandemic-era emergency stimulus comes to an end, but any such increase is uncertain, Governing Council member Madis Muller said Investors seeking hints about how Beijing plans to deal with China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis are training their cross hairs on the central bank’s liquidity management A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as caution lingered ahead of upcoming risk events including the FOMC, with participants also digesting the latest Evergrande developments and China’s return to the market from the Mid-Autumn Festival. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was positive with the index led higher by the energy sector after a rebound in oil prices and as tech also outperformed, but with gains capped by weakness in the largest-weighted financials sector including Westpac which was forced to scrap the sale of its Pacific businesses after failing to secure regulatory approval. Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) was subdued amid the lack of fireworks from the BoJ announcement to keep policy settings unchanged and ahead of the upcoming holiday closure with the index only briefly supported by favourable currency outflows. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was initially pressured on return from the long-weekend and with Hong Kong markets closed, but pared losses with risk appetite supported by news that Evergrande’s main unit Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments due tomorrow, although other sources noted this is referring to the onshore bond payments valued around USD 36mln and that there was no mention of the offshore bond payments valued at USD 83.5mln which are also due tomorrow. Meanwhile, the PBoC facilitated liquidity through a CNY 120bln injection and provided no surprises in keeping its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged for the 17th consecutive month at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid the absence of any major surprises from the BoJ policy announcement and following the choppy trade in T-notes which were briefly pressured in a knee-jerk reaction to the news that Evergrande’s unit will satisfy its coupon obligations tomorrow, but then faded most of the losses as cautiousness prevailed. Top Asian News Gold Steady as Traders Await Outcome of Fed Policy Meeting Evergrande Filing on Yuan Bond Interest Leaves Analysts Guessing Singapore Category E COE Price Rises to Highest Since April 2014 Asian Stocks Fall for Third Day as Focus Turns to Central Banks European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.5%) trade on a firmer footing in the wake of an encouraging APAC handover. Focus overnight was on the return of Chinese participants from the Mid-Autumn Festival and news that Evergrande’s main unit, Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments due tomorrow; however, we await indication as to whether they will meet Thursday’s offshore payment deadline as well. Furthermore, the PBoC facilitated liquidity through a CNY 120bln injection whilst keeping its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged (as expected). Note, despite gaining yesterday and today, thus far, the Stoxx 600 is still lower to the tune of 0.7% on the week. Stateside, futures are also trading on a firmer footing ahead of today’s FOMC policy announcement, at which, market participants will be eyeing any clues for when the taper will begin and digesting the latest dot plot forecasts. Furthermore, the US House voted to pass the bill to fund the government through to December 3rd and suspend the debt limit to end-2022, although this will likely be blocked by Senate Republicans. Back to Europe, sectors are mostly firmer with outperformance in Basic Resources and Oil & Gas amid upside in the metals and energy complex. Elsewhere, Travel & Leisure is faring well amid further upside in Entain (+6.1%) with the Co. noting it rejected an earlier approach from DraftKings at GBP 25/shr with the new offer standing at GBP 28/shr. Additionally for the sector, Flutter Entertainment (+4.1%) are trading higher after settling the legal dispute between the Co. and Commonwealth of Kentucky. Elsewhere, in terms of deal flow, Iliad announced that it is to acquire UPC Poland for around USD 1.8bln. Top European News Energy Cost Spike Gets on EU Ministers’ Green Deal Agenda Travel Startup HomeToGo Gains in Frankfurt Debut After SPAC Deal London Stock Exchange to Shut Down CurveGlobal Exchange EU Banks Expected to Add Capital for Climate Risk, EBA Says In FX, trade remains volatile as this week’s deluge of global Central Bank policy meetings continues to unfold amidst fluctuations in broad risk sentiment from relatively pronounced aversion at various stages to a measured and cautious pick-up in appetite more recently. Hence, the tide is currently turning in favour of activity, cyclical and commodity currencies, albeit tentatively in the run up to the Fed, with the Kiwi and Aussie trying to regroup on the 0.7000 handle and 0.7350 axis against their US counterpart, and the latter also striving to shrug off negative domestic impulses like a further decline below zero in Westpac’s leading index and an earthquake near Melbourne. Next up for Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd, beyond the FOMC, trade data and preliminary PMIs respectively. DXY/CHF/EUR/CAD - Notwithstanding the overall improvement in market tone noted above, or another major change in mood and direction, the Dollar index appears to have found a base just ahead of 93.000 and ceiling a similar distance away from 93.500, as it meanders inside those extremes awaiting US existing home sales that are scheduled for release before the main Fed events (policy statement, SEP and post-meeting press conference from chair Powell). Indeed, the Franc, Euro and Loonie have all recoiled into tighter bands vs the Greenback, between 0.9250-26, 1.1739-17 and 1.2831-1.2770, but with the former still retaining an underlying bid more evident in the Eur/Chf cross that is consolidating under 1.0850 and will undoubtedly be acknowledged by the SNB tomorrow. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd has hardly reacted to latest ECB commentary from Muller underpinning that the APP is likely to be boosted once the PEPP envelope is closed, though Usd/Cad is eyeing a firm rebound in oil prices in conjunction with hefty option expiry interest at the 1.2750 strike (1.8 bn) that may prevent the headline pair from revisiting w-t-d lows not far beneath the half round number. GBP/JPY - The major laggards, as Sterling slips slightly further beneath 1.3650 against the Buck to a fresh weekly low and Eur/Gbp rebounds from circa 0.8574 to top 0.8600 on FOMC day and T-1 to super BoE Thursday. Elsewhere, the Yen has lost momentum after peaking around 109.12 and still not garnering sufficient impetus to test 109.00 via an unchanged BoJ in terms of all policy settings and guidance, as Governor Kuroda trotted out the no hesitation to loosen the reins if required line for the umpteenth time. However, Usd/Jpy is holding around 109.61 and some distance from 1.1 bn option expiries rolling off between 109.85-110.00 at the NY cut. SCANDI/EM - Brent’s revival to Usd 75.50+/brl from sub-Usd 73.50 only yesterday has given the Nok another fillip pending confirmation of a Norges Bank hike tomorrow, while the Zar has regained some poise with the aid of firmer than forecast SA headline and core CPI alongside a degree of retracement following Wednesday’s breakdown of talks on a pay deal for engineering workers that prompted the union to call a strike from early October. Similarly, the Cnh and Cny by default have regrouped amidst reports that the CCP is finalising details to restructure Evergrande into 3 separate entities under a plan that will see the Chinese Government take control. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning though once again fresh newsflow for the complex has been relatively slim and largely consisting of gas-related commentary; as such, the benchmarks are taking their cue from the broader risk tone (see equity section). The improvement in sentiment today has brought WTI and Brent back in proximity to being unchanged on the week so far as a whole; however, the complex will be dictated directly by the EIA weekly inventory first and then indirectly, but perhaps more pertinently, by today’s FOMC. On the weekly inventories, last nights private release was a larger than expected draw for the headline and distillate components, though the Cushing draw was beneath expectations; for today, consensus is a headline draw pf 2.44mln. Moving to metals where the return of China has seen a resurgence for base metals with LME copper posting upside of nearly 3.0%, for instance. Albeit there is no fresh newsflow for the complex as such, so it remains to be seen how lasting this resurgence will be. Finally, spot gold and silver are firmer but with the magnitude once again favouring silver over the yellow metal. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.7%, prior 2.0% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, est. 0%, prior 0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap All eyes firmly on China this morning as it reopens following a 2-day holiday. As expected the indices there have opened lower but the scale of the declines are being softened by the PBoC increasing its short term cash injections into the economy. They’ve added a net CNY 90bn into the system. On Evergrande, we’ve also seen some positive headlines as the property developers’ main unit Hengda Real Estate Group has said that it will make coupon payment for an onshore bond tomorrow. However, the exchange filing said that the interest payment “has been resolved via negotiations with bondholders off the clearing house”. This is all a bit vague and doesn’t mention the dollar bond at this stage. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported that Chinese authorities have begun to lay the groundwork for a potential restructuring that could be one of the country’s biggest, assembling accounting and legal experts to examine the finances of the group. All this follows news from Bloomberg yesterday that Evergrande missed interest payments that had been due on Monday to at least two banks. In terms of markets the CSI (-1.11%), Shanghai Comp (-0.29%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.53%) are all lower but have pared back deeper losses from the open. We did a flash poll in the CoTD yesterday (link here) and after over 700 responses in a couple of hours we found only 8% who we thought Evergrande would still be impacting financial markets significantly in a month’s time. 24% thought it would be slightly impacting. The other 68% thought limited or no impact. So the world is relatively relaxed about contagion risk for now. The bigger risk might be the knock on impact of weaker Chinese growth. So that’s one to watch even if you’re sanguine on the systemic threat. Craig Nicol in my credit team did a good note yesterday (link here) looking at the contagion risk to the broader HY market. I thought he summed it up nicely as to why we all need to care one way or another in saying that “Evergrande is the largest corporate, in the largest sector, of the second largest economy in the world”. For context AT&T is the largest corporate borrower in the US market and VW the largest in Europe. Turning back to other Asian markets now and the Nikkei (-0.65%) is down but the Hang Seng (+0.51%) and Asx (+0.58%) are up. South Korean markets continue to remain closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, yields on 10y USTs are trading flattish while futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.10% and those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.21%. Crude oil prices are also up c.+1% this morning. In other news, the Bank of Japan policy announcement overnight was a non-event as the central bank maintained its yield curve target while keeping the policy rate and asset purchases plan unchanged. The central bank also unveiled more details of its green lending program and said that it would immediately start accepting applications and would begin making the loans in December. The relatively calm Asian session follows a stabilisation in markets yesterday following their rout on Monday as investors looked forward to the outcome of the Fed’s meeting later today. That said, it was hardly a resounding performance, with the S&P 500 unable to hold on to its intraday gains and ending just worse than unchanged after the -1.70% decline the previous day as investors remained vigilant as to the array of risks that continue to pile up on the horizon. One of these is in US politics and legislators seem no closer to resolving the various issues surrounding a potential government shutdown at the end of the month, along with a potential debt ceiling crisis in October, which is another flashing alert on the dashboard for investors that’s further contributing to weaker sentiment right now. Looking ahead now, today’s main highlight will be the latest Federal Reserve decision along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, with the policy decision out at 19:00 London time. Markets have been on edge for any clues about when the Fed might begin to taper asset purchases, but concern about tapering actually being announced at this meeting has dissipated over recent weeks, particularly after the most recent nonfarm payrolls in August came in at just +235k, and the monthly CPI print also came in beneath consensus expectations for the first time since November. In terms of what to expect, our US economists write in their preview (link here) that they see the statement adopting Chair Powell’s language that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases is appropriate “this year”, so long as the economy remains on track. They see Powell maintaining optionality about the exact timing of that announcement, but they think that the message will effectively be that the bar to pushing the announcement beyond November is relatively high in the absence of any material downside surprises. This meeting also sees the release of the FOMC’s latest economic projections and the dot plot, where they expect there’ll be an upward drift in the dots that raises the number of rate hikes in 2023 to 3, followed by another 3 increases in 2024. Back to yesterday, and as mentioned US equity markets fell for a second straight day after being unable to hold on to earlier gains, with the S&P 500 slightly lower (-0.08%). High-growth industries outperformed with biotech (+0.38%) and semiconductors (+0.18%) leading the NASDAQ (+0.22%) slightly higher, however the Dow Jones (-0.15%) also struggled. Europe saw a much stronger performance though as much of the US decline came after Europe had closed. The STOXX 600 gained +1.00% to erase most of Monday’s losses, with almost every sector in the index ending the day in positive territory. With risk sentiment improving for much of the day yesterday, US Treasuries sold off slightly and by the close of trade yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +1.2bps to 1.3226%, thanks to a +1.8bps increase in real yields. However, sovereign bonds in Europe told a different story as yields on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps), OATs (-0.3bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) moved lower. Other safe havens including gold (+0.59%) and silver (+1.02%) also benefited, but this wasn’t reflected across commodities more broadly, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-0.30%) losing ground for a 4th consecutive session. Democratic Party leaders plan to vote on the Senate-approved $500bn bipartisan infrastructure bill next Monday, even with no resolution to the $3.5tr budget reconciliation measure that encompasses the remainder of the Biden Administration’s economic agenda. Democrats continue to work on the reconciliation measure but have turned their attention to the debt ceiling and government funding bills.Congress has fewer than two weeks before the current budget expires – on Oct 1 – to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. Republicans yesterday noted that the Democrats could raise the ceiling on their own through the reconciliation process, with many saying that they would not be offering their support to any funding bill. Democrats continue to push for a bipartisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, pointing to their votes during the Trump administration. If Democrats are forced to tie the debt ceiling and funding bills to budget reconciliation, it could limit how much of the $3.5 trillion bill survives the last minute negotiations between progressives and moderates. More to come over the next 10 days. Staying on the US, there was an important announcement in President Biden’s speech at the UN General Assembly, as he said that he would work with Congress to double US funding to poorer nations to deal with climate change. That comes as UK Prime Minister Johnson (with the UK hosting the COP26 summit in less than 6 weeks’ time) has been lobbying other world leaders to find the $100bn per year that developed economies pledged by 2020 to support developing countries as they reduce their emissions and deal with climate change. In Germany, there are just 4 days to go now until the federal election, and a Forsa poll out yesterday showed a slight narrowing in the race, with the centre-left SPD remaining on 25%, but the CDU/CSU gained a point on last week to 22%, which puts them within the +/- 2.5 point margin of error. That narrowing has been seen in Politico’s Poll of Polls as well, with the race having tightened from a 5-point SPD lead over the CDU/CSU last week to a 3-point one now. Turning to the pandemic, Johnson & Johnson reported that their booster shot given 8 weeks after the first offered 100% protection against severe disease, 94% protection against symptomatic Covid in the US, and 75% against symptomatic Covid globally. Speaking of boosters, Bloomberg reported that the FDA was expected to decide as soon as today on a recommendation for Pfizer’s booster vaccine. That follows an FDA advisory panel rejecting a booster for all adults last Friday, restricting the recommendation to those over-65 and other high-risk categories. Staying with the US and vaccines, President Biden announced that the US was ordering 500mn doses of the Pfizer vaccine to be exported to the rest of the world. On the data front, there were some strong US housing releases for August, with housing starts up by an annualised 1.615m (vs. 1.55m expected), and building permits up by 1.728m (vs. 1.6m expected). Separately, the OECD released their Interim Economic Outlook, which saw them upgrade their inflation expectations for the G20 this year to +3.7% (up +0.2ppts from May) and for 2022 to +3.9% (up +0.5ppts from May). Their global growth forecast saw little change at +5.7% in 2021 (down a tenth) and +4.5% for 2022 (up a tenth). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 08:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 22nd, 2021

Resonance Companies brings garment manufacturing back to NYC

Resonance Companies today announced a milestone in driving the return of domestic textile manufacturing — the opening of the company’s first stateside sew production facility in New York City. The 300 s/f facility is housed at Pier 59 in Chelsea Piers, adjacent to Resonance’s headquarters. Resonance has built the first creation-to-customer-closet... The post Resonance Companies brings garment manufacturing back to NYC appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Resonance Companies today announced a milestone in driving the return of domestic textile manufacturing — the opening of the company’s first stateside sew production facility in New York City. The 300 s/f facility is housed at Pier 59 in Chelsea Piers, adjacent to Resonance’s headquarters. Resonance has built the first creation-to-customer-closet platform for sustainable fashion; the company uses digital printing on organic and environmentally certified fabrics as part of a fully automated process to design, sell, and make garments in real time, on demand, sustainably anywhere in the world. Their new facility is comprised of 12 sewing stations with the ability to make hundreds of garments per week supported by Resonance’s proprietary technology. The team plans to hire additional team members to run the NYC facility as well as several others that are planned in the coming months. “The US has lost one million apparel manufacturing jobs in the last 50 years. These jobs won’t come back by just wishing it – every step in the value chain to create fashion needs to be reimagined. Using advanced machine learning, innovative manufacturing systems, and new human processes, we can create thousands of living wage jobs across this country,” said Resonance chairman and co-founder Lawrence Lenihan. Resonance is committed to bringing components of garment manufacturing back to NYC, a city whose thriving textile manufacturing industry was driven overseas in search of lower production costs. The company is also working to create a network of US-based sew production firms utilizing the Resonance platform to renew stateside manufacturing across the country. Resonance believes that this network can birth a new fashion value chain and new entrepreneurs can build job-creating manufacturing businesses in their communities powered by orders for clothing from brands on the Resonance platform. These next generation manufacturers will compete on cost and by being closer to the end customer, adding value to the last-mile process, and producing garments that create social and environmental value transparently. In the future, Resonance’s goal is to open hundreds of these sew production facilities around the country and internationally while also connecting existing ones, helping to reimagine the textile manufacturing experience for designers, consumers and the planet. The post Resonance Companies brings garment manufacturing back to NYC appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklySep 21st, 2021

"Many People Will Be Arrested" - Evergrande Lured Retail Investors Into Billions Of "Wealth Management Products" With Gucci Bags, Dyson Air Purifiers

"Many People Will Be Arrested" - Evergrande Lured Retail Investors Into Billions Of "Wealth Management Products" With Gucci Bags, Dyson Air Purifiers In our post detailing how Evergrande became a "too big to fail" anchor of China's shadow banking system, we noted that a key missing piece in the company's funding was selling wealth management products  - i.e., unregulated "shadow banking" products - to outside investors, as well as its own employees and their families, promising returns up to 13%. It is these WMP investors that are currently besieging the company's offices across the country in hopes of getting some of their principal back, and which include everyone from paint suppliers to decoration and construction companies. To them, Evergrande owes more than 800 billion yuan ($124 billion) due within one year, while it has only a 10th of that amount of cash on hand. It will have even less once the now officially defaulted company makes priority payments to its banks and creditors. Expanding on this striking funding source, Reuters today writes that lured by the promise of yields as high as 12, "tens of thousands of investors bought wealth management products" through China Evergrande, a transaction which was softened by gifts such as Dyson air purifiers and Gucci bags, not to mention the guarantee of China’s top-selling developer, a guarantee which we now know was worthless. And now, many investors fear they may never get their investments back after the cash-strapped property developer recently stopped repaying some investors and set off global alarm bells over its massive debt. Some have been protesting at Evergrande offices, refusing to accept the company’s plan to provide payment with discounted apartments, offices, stores and parking units, which it began to implement on Saturday. “I bought from the property managers after seeing the ad in the elevator, as I trusted Evergrande for being a Fortune Global 500 company,” said the owner of an Evergrande property in the conglomerate’s home province of Guangdong surnamed Du. “It’s immoral of Evergrande not to pay my hard-earned money back,” said the investor, who had put 650,000 yuan ($100,533) into Evergrande wealth management products (WMPs) last year at an interest rate of more than 7%. That investor is about to learn that in addition to return, there is also risk, a concept almost forgotten in today's world where central banks and authoritarian governments do everything to preserve the "wealth effect" and avoid social unrest resulting from stock price crashes. According to a sales manager of Evergrande Wealth, launched in 2016 as a peer-to-peer (P2) online lending platform that originally was used to fund its property project, more than 80,000 people – including employees, their families and friends as well as owners of Evergrande properties - bought WMPs that raised more than 100 billion yuan in the past five years. Of these investments, some 40 billion yuan are still outstanding, and will likely never be repaid. Last week, Evergrande revealed that even Ding Yumei, the wife of billionaire founder Hui Ka Yan, had bought $3 million of the company’s investment products in a show of support. As the FT adds, Evergrande financial advisers marketed the products widely, including to homeowners in its apartment blocks, while its managers persuaded subordinates to invest, the executives of Evergrande’s wealth management division said. The publication adds that one executive - who spoke during a meeting with angry investors who went to the company’s Shenzhen headquarters to try to get their money back - suggested the products were too high risk for ordinary retail investors and should not have been offered to them. Of course, it is way too late now. "My parents put the bulk of their savings, which is Rmb200,000 and not a lot by Evergrande’s standard, into its [wealth management products],” said the daughter of one investor who asked to be identified by her surname Xu. She said an Evergrande financial adviser stationed in an apartment tower built by the company in central China had persuaded her mother to invest. “They wouldn’t have trusted Evergrande’s wealth products had they not bought the developer’s apartment,” she said. “All they wanted was to ease the financial pressure from buying expensive cancer drugs [for Xu’s mother], nothing else.” Last week, Xu was one of hundreds of people who travelled to Evergrande’s Shenzhen headquarters in hopes of recovering their investment. One investor named Rosy Chen and her husband, an Evergrande employee, invested Rmb100,000 this year in a product with an advertised 11.5 per cent annual return on the urging of one of his superiors. The cash went to “supplement” the working capital of a company called Hubei Gangdun Materials, according to the investment contract. Hundreds of home buyers, retail investors and Evergrande contractors converged on the property group’s Shenzhen headquarters last week seeking repayment. Photo: AFP/Getty “At first we waited, but when we saw we were among the only families in the whole [Evergrande] division not to buy in, we decided to invest too,” said Chen. “We believed Evergrande wouldn’t cheat its own employees.” Remarkably, this hit to Chinese investors and resulting social unrest, comes as a time when China's Xi has launched a renewed pursuit of core Marxism with his "Common prosperity" initiative, which also coincides with China’s years-long effort to deleverage its economy, which has pushed companies to resort to off-balance sheet investments in search of funding. It's why we said recently that what is happening to Evergrande is a symptom of China's great deleveraging campaign, which however for a country with 350% debt/GDP is doomed to fail. The funniest thing about the whole Evergrande fiasco is that it's due to China pretending it can reduce its debt without a crash. Guys, ain't happening: at least the US accepts this and has adopted the idiocy that is MMT to justify perpetual debt increase until it all blows up pic.twitter.com/xdw4F7CTQV — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2021 Incidentally China has only itself to blame for the Evergrande crisis. Having allowed unprecedented debt growth for much of the past decade, last year Beijing capped debt levels of property developers last year as part of its "three red lines" policy which limited how much debt growth various tiers of developers can engage in. As a result, the most indebted players like Evergrande - feeling even more pressure to find new sources of capital to ease mounting liquidity stress - ended up moving to the unregulated "shadow banking" market, and turned to employees, suppliers and clients for cash through commercial paper, trust and wealth management products. Evergrande Wealth started to sell WMPs to individuals in 2019 after a regulatory crackdown led to a collapse of the P2P lending sector, said the sales manager and another Evergrande employee who bought the WMPs. To attract investors, the sales manager offered gifts such as Dyson air purifiers and Gucci handbags to each person who bought more than 3 million yuan of WMPs during a Christmas promotion last year. A product leaflet provided by the sales manager seen by Reuters showed the WMPs are categorized as fixed-income products suitable for “conservative investors seeking steady returns”. It was anything but. In an interview with local media, one Evergrande financial adviser said the products were a type of “supply chain finance”. While the money from retail investors may in years past have gone to its suppliers, the Evergrande executives in Shenzhen receiving retail investors said this was no longer the case. Asked about Hubei Gangdun, one of the executives of Evergrande’s wealth management division said that it was just a shell company. “Proceeds from the WMPs have been used to bridge various funding gaps faced by the parent company,” the executive said. “There is no need to thoroughly examine where the money actually went. “Some WMP proceeds were used to repay previous products but sales plummeted, making it difficult for the business model to continue,” he admitted. "Many people . . . might be arrested for financial fraud if investors don’t get paid off,” he said. “Our products were not for everyone. But our grassroots salespeople didn’t consider this when making their sales pitches and they targeted everyone in order to meet their own sales targets.” Translation: Evergrande used not just Ponzi instruments, but unregulated Ponzi instruments, which are now worth nothing. In two products sold last November, a construction company in Qingdao was looking to raise up to 10 million yuan with annualized yield of 7% in one and 20 million yuan with yields ranging from 7.8% to 9.5%, depending on the investment size, in another. Minimum investments were 100,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan, respectively. According to the sale manager, to make its products especially attractive, Evergrande offered additional yield up to 1.8% to certain investors, which would push returns to above 11% for a 12-month investment, an interest rate which in a world of zero rates, indicates funding stress if nothing else. Proceeds were to be used for Qingdao Lvye International Construction Co’s working capital, the documents showed. Repayment would either come from the issuer’s income or from Evergrande Internet Information Service (Shenzhen) Co, a subsidiary that runs Evergrande Wealth and promises to cover the principal and interest if an issuer fails to repay, the prospectus said. The sales manager said the Qingdao company was working on Evergrande projects and would use the payment from Evergrande upon completion to repay investors. “It’s a de-facto Evergrande product,” he said. Other highly leveraged Chinese conglomerates including HNA Group, which declared bankruptcy early this year, and China Baoneng have used similar products. It was the overreliance of China's giant conglomerates on shadow banking - among others - that prompted us back all the way back in 2018 to predict that after HNA and Anbang, Evergrande would fail next. Anbang first, then HNA, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, 2018 Earlier this week, Evergrande said that six senior executives would face “severe punishment” for securing early redemptions on investment products after retail investors were told that they would not be repaid on time. Another big question is whether Evergrande ever included the 40 billion yuan of WMPs among the liabilities on its balance sheet; as the FT notes, the answer "remains unclear." “We expect part of it should be included in the total liabilities . . . however, there was no detailed disclosure in its financial statement, so it is difficult to verify,” said Cedric Lai, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s Investors Service. Nigel Stevenson of GMT Research agreed it was unclear how Evergrande accounted for the WMPs. “Once the lid is lifted on its financials, it’s possible more horrors will be discovered,” he said. In a petition to various government bodies, a group of WMP investors in Guangdong accused Evergrande of inappropriately using money that should have gone to the issuers to fund its own projects, and not sufficiently disclosing the risks. They also complained that they were misled by the stature of its chairman, Hui Ka-yan, noting that he was seated prominently during a 2019 celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. “The investors trusted Evergrande and bought Evergrande’s WMPs out of our love for and faith in the Party and government,” they wrote. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/21/2021 - 11:10.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 21st, 2021

I Tried Lab-Grown Fish Maw. Here’s Why It Could Help Save Our Oceans

I’m an avid surfer and a certified scuba diver, and spending so much time in the water means that I’m keenly aware of the impact that human activity is having on the ocean ecosystem. It sometimes feels like it’s more common to see plastic bags in the water than sea life. So, I was excited… I’m an avid surfer and a certified scuba diver, and spending so much time in the water means that I’m keenly aware of the impact that human activity is having on the ocean ecosystem. It sometimes feels like it’s more common to see plastic bags in the water than sea life. So, I was excited this week to try lab-grown fish—a new product that could help address at least one major problem facing the world’s oceans: over-fishing. Hong Kong-based Avant Meats offered a public tasting of cultivated fish, which its scientists had grown in their laboratory using the cells of real fish. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Startups around the world are racing to raise money to commercialize cultivated animal protein—ranging from beef to kangaroo. While lab-grown beef might help offset carbon emissions and reduce animal cruelty, the rollout of cell-based fish protein, shellfish and other seafood could be an important innovation to protect the ocean’s incredible biodiversity. One of ‘four treasures’ of Chinese cuisine Avant Meats has a unique approach to its lab-grown seafood business. Not content to just mass-produce lab-grown fish fillets, it has focused on developing prized delicacies, especially fish maw. Fish maw, sometimes referred to as the swim bladder, is an organ that helps a fish control its buoyancy. It’s considered one of the “four treasures” of Chinese cuisine. (The others are abalone, sea cucumber and shark’s fin, the consumption of which has caused shark populations around the globe to plummet). “We are the first company working on cultivated fish in Asia,” says Carrie Chan, the co-founder and CEO of Avant Meats. “We wanted to do something very emotionally connected with the people in this part of the world.” Aria Chen and Abhishyant Kidangoor–TIMEAvant Meats fish maw in a soup on Sept. 14, 2021. Fish maw is mostly eaten on special occasions; I tried it years ago at a friend’s wedding banquet dinner. Fish maw itself doesn’t have a strong flavor. Instead, it tends to pick up the flavors it’s cooked in. The yellow croaker fish maw in the soup chef Eddy Leung had prepared for us on Tuesday tasted similar. It had a spongey, chewy texture. “The texture is similar to the real fish maw before it’s cooked…It is sticky, it has gelatin,” says Leung. “But when you eat it, it doesn’t yet have the kind of stickiness the real ones do.” Avant Meats also let us sample a cultivated fish fillet, derived from a grouper. As a former vegetarian, I’m still squeamish about eating living things. But I didn’t feel guilty about eating meat that was never actually a living, swimming fish. The fillet tasted like the real thing, but it still has a way to go. Instead of flaking like real fish, it had a starchier consistency, more like gnocchi. To make the food we tried, the company took cells from a real fish, fed them nutrients and incubated them until they began to replicate. Some of those cells were then placed on what’s called scaffolding—plant-based materials that give the cells shape as they grow. Read More: Why This Year Is Our Last, Best Chance for Saving the Oceans Scaling up production, scaling down cost One of the biggest challenges facing cell-based companies is that, like most new technological developments, it’s really expensive to produce. It initially cost Avant Meat around $900 to produce a pound of lab-grown fish. The company has already brought its cost down to about $70 per pound, and Chan believes Avant can reduce its costs to $14 to $18 per pound in the next 12-18 months as production scales up. “The key is: Can you produce enough fish from cellular production that you displace wild capture or traditional or conventional farmed fish?” Arlin Wasserman, the founder of the sustainable food consultancy Changing Tastes, tells me. This is where focusing on fish maw and other high-end ingredients could make lab-grown seafood economically viable faster. A bowl of fish maw soup in a nice restaurant in Hong Kong costs around $30, while braised fish maw at the city’s three Michelin star Lung King Heen restaurant costs around $470. Read More: The World’s Oceans Are in Trouble. And So Are Humans, Warns U.N. Report Over-fishing crisis If cell-based seafood takes off, it will be good news for the world’s oceans. More than 30% of stocks are now being fished at biologically unsustainable levels, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Massive quantities of unwanted fish and other creatures like sea turtles and dolphins are accidentally captured while fishing for species meant for human consumption. Fish maw has had especially devastating ripple effects. The swim bladder of the totoaba fish, native to Mexico, is especially prized; it’s sometimes referred to as the “cocaine of the sea” for its astronomical prices. Totoaba fishing was banned in 1975, but illegal gillnets are still common. They also ensnare vaquitas, the world’s smallest porpoise. Now, it’s estimated that there are only nine vaquitas left in the world. Avant Meats’ innovation could help relieve the pressure that growing demand for rare delicacies has put on ocean habitats all over the world. Texture aside, I’m excited to see cell-based meats getting closer to becoming a reality. Avant Meats’ concept will be put to the test very soon. At a time when most companies are still working to bring their products to consumers, Avant Meats plans to sell its first products to the public sometime next year. The company is also working on a fish-based ingredient to be used in skincare products, and it plans to branch out into other meat, including sea cucumber, soon. —With reporting by Aria Chen / Hong Kong.....»»

Category: topSource: timeSep 21st, 2021

September Lull Lingers: 5 Best Inverse/Leveraged ETFs of Last Week

Wall Street replicated the week before and ended on a negative note last week too. Wall Street replicated the week before and ended on a negative note last week too. This strengthened the worth of the adage that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite lost about 0.6%, 0.07% and 0.5%, respectively. The S&P 500 is on its way toward its first monthly decline since January. The Russell 2000 only added 0.42% last week.Consumer sentiment missed estimates in early September and hovered near a decade-low as concerns over inflation lingered. Notably, September has an ill reputation for the stock market. According to moneychimp.com, a consensus carried out from 1950 to 2020 revealed that September ended up offering positive returns in 32 years and negative returns in 39 years, with an average return of negative 0.62%, which is worse than any other month.However, last week was not extremely downbeat on every ground as the oil sector surged and the retail sales bounced back. U.S. retail sales gained 0.7% sequentially in August 2021, following an upwardly revised 1.8% drop-off in July and breezing past market expectations of a 0.8% decline, as demand for goods remained strong despite the surge in cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19. Back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments from the government are deemed to be the drivers, per Reuters (read: August Retail Sales Shine: ETFs & Stocks to Win).Oil prices also staged a rally courtesy of ahost of factors. Most recently, an industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Also, expectations of higher demand thanks to growing vaccine distribution along with a still-dovish Fed boosted hopes of higher oil consumption. Brent hit its highest levels since late July and WTI since early August, per CNBC(read: Sector ETFs to Benefit/Lose as Oil Crosses $70).“The impact of Hurricane Ida was a lot greater than many anticipated and production in the Gulf of Mexico region might struggle to return until Tropical Storm Nicholas is done punishing the region with torrential rain,” said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, as quoted on CNBC.There was another big event last week. President Biden always had plans for tax hikes. In line with that plan, House Democrats drew a host of tax hikes on corporations and wealthy people to finance the costs associated with the social safety net and climate policy that could touch as much as $3.5 trillion (read: Tax Hike in the Cards? ETFs in Focus).The plan demands top corporate and individual tax rates of 26.5% and 39.6%, respectively, according to a summary released by the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, as quoted on CNBC. The proposal includes a 3% surcharge on individual income above $5 million and a capital gains tax of 25%.Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few inverse/leveraged ETFs that were the winning ones last week.ETFs in Focus Microsectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X ETN NRGU – Up 12.84%As oil prices rallied, leveraged energy ETFs gained last week. The fund follows the equal-dollar weighted Solactive MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index that provides exposure to the 10 largest U.S. energy and oil companies.FTSE China Bear 3X Direxion (YANG) – Up 12.58%Chinese equities have been under pressure for quite some time.  The China government’s crackdown on various sectors, especially technology, has weighed on it. Last week witnessed China’s property market bubble. Investors received a news that China Evergrande Group, the largest property company in the world in 2018, is set to miss interest payments on bank loans due on Sep 20. The fund follows the FTSE China 50 Index, which consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.Ultrashort Silver ETF ZSL – Up 12.30%The U.S. dollar rose last week. This probably weighed on the precious metals. The ProShares UltraShort Silver seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance the Bloomberg Silver Subindex.Ultrashort MSCI Brazil Capped ETF BZQ – Up 7.18%Brazil's real currency and stocks dropped sharply last week. Global growth worries amid a renewed virus threat recently weighed on the risk sentiment. The ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse of the daily performance of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.Microsectors Gold Miners -3X ETN GDXD – Up 6.41%The MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETNs is linked to a three times inverse leveraged participation in the performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index. Gold prices have also been a victim of Fed’s taper talks and the resultant rise in the greenback. Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL): ETF Research Reports ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped (BZQ): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN (NRGU): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Inverse Leveraged ETNs (GDXD): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Fathom Realty Expands Leadership Team

Fathom Realty recently announced several additions to its leadership team: Claire Addison District: Greater Albuquerque, New Mexico Addison relocated from Hawaii to practice law and real estate in New Mexico. She is a highly experienced REALTOR® in estates, investment, residential and trust properties. She enjoys helping families who are upsizing or downsizing and first-time homebuyers. […] The post Fathom Realty Expands Leadership Team appeared first on RISMedia. Fathom Realty recently announced several additions to its leadership team: Claire Addison District: Greater Albuquerque, New Mexico Addison relocated from Hawaii to practice law and real estate in New Mexico. She is a highly experienced REALTOR® in estates, investment, residential and trust properties. She enjoys helping families who are upsizing or downsizing and first-time homebuyers. Her goal is to provide valuable advice, market data and problem solving that results in successful outcomes. Addison looks forward to growing Fathom Realty’s presence in New Mexico by attracting the most capable agents and supporting their dreams and goals. Andres Aviles Greater Collin County – Southwest, Texas One of Fathom’s youngest district directors, Aviles, was inspired to pursue real estate and establish his career shortly after college. After just five years in the industry, Aviles has shown strong leadership and team-building skills that align with Fathom’s servant-based leadership mentality and culture, according to the company. He hopes to bring together a community based on trust, authenticity and transparency. Aviles caters to Spanish and English-speaking clients and specializes in assisting first-time home buyers, new construction projects and land purchases. Melissa Gibbens District: Southwest Missouri (Springfield/Joplin) Gibbon’s husband of 26 years is a general contractor who gave her the nudge to start a real estate career. With professional experience in customer service, Gibbens prides herself on focusing on serving the needs of her clients. She began her real estate career 16 years ago, focusing on new construction sales. As her career evolved, Gibbens became a specialist in another area, CAFO or concentrated animal feeding operation sales. She is proud to support rural America and the farmers that feed the U.S. Wendy Holcomb District: Greater Collin County – East, Texas Holcomb serves the Collin County East district in the Dallas/Fort Worth area in Texas. She brings a mix of investment banking and a legal background into her work in real estate. Holcomb is a Fathom Mentor and enjoys guiding, teaching and serving other agents. Julian Jacksonlt District: Greater Southwest San Antonio, Texas Originally from Atlanta, Georgia, Jackson earned degrees in Information System Technology and Psychology and was accepted to flight school as an Army helicopter pilot. He later became an Army instructor pilot training new Army flight students where he was voted the outstanding instructor of the flight in the  overwhelming majority of classes that he taught. After moving to San Antonio in 2003, Jackson went on to train Air Force officers in logistics readiness and attained his Master Instructor certification the following year with over 3000 hours on the podium. While still serving in the military, Jackson earned his license as a loan officer in 2006 and shortly after opened Paradigm Institute Loan Officer and Mortgage Broker Training School. He wrote and taught one of the highest first-time pass rate courses in the state of Texas. Thirteen months later he would open his own mortgage branch of Southwest Funding. Wendy Lahn District: East Central Minnesota Lahn has been in the real estate business collectively for 29 years. She has worked solo and in big brick-and-mortar offices but recently joined Fathom Realty to expand the brokerage into Minnesota. Lahn has achieved the Graduate REALTORS® Institute (GRI), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) and the ePro designations from the National Association of REALTORS®. Rachel Mann District: Greater Denton County – Southwest, Texas Mann has been a licensed REALTOR® in the State of Texas since 2016. Her passion for the industry includes mentoring, investing and working with custom builders. Mann’s experience and her industry connections help to ensure each transaction is handled with the utmost importance and professionalism Janet Mitchell District: Greater Collin County – Northwest, Texas Mitchell has been in the real estate industry for over 15 years. In addition to her real estate experience, she spent ten years as a sales director in a major cosmetic company helping consultants build successful businesses. Mitchell’s passion for assisting people to achieve their dreams and become a better version of themselves in the process is the driving force in all that she does. Rhonda Ryals District: Tampa, Florida In 2017, Ryals embarked on her journey into the world of real estate and never looked back! First, she began her career working in an apprenticeship role. The next step, to venture as a solo agent, was a natural progression for Ryals. Cindy Woyak District: Boise/Twin Falls, Idaho; State Broker Woyak has been a principal broker for many years, leading small and large brokerages, and teaching thousands of agents across the state of Idaho. As a new member of the Fathom family, she is excited to continue raising the bar in our ever-changing industry. For more information, please visit www.fathomrealty.com. The post Fathom Realty Expands Leadership Team appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 21st, 2021

NASDAQ Higher for Fifth Straight Day as Stocks Rally in Final Hour

NASDAQ Higher for Fifth Straight Day as Stocks Rally in Final Hour Thankfully, there was no repeat of last Thursday’s brutality in today’s session, as stocks rallied into the close and now have a great chance to post their third positive week in the past four. The NASDAQ stretched its winning streak to five days after advancing 0.33% (or about 32 points) to 9943.05. The S&P also inched out an advance of 0.06% to 3115.34. The Dow couldn’t follow its counterparts onto positive ground, but it did cut the day’s losses to only about 39 points from approximately 270 points earlier. The index was off 0.15% to 26,080.10. That’s quite the improvement from last Thursday’s plunge of 6.9%, or 1861 points! Stocks remain concerned about the increase in coronavirus cases in several states and China as these places try to reopen and get back to normal. However, we’re not seeing the frantic rush to the exits like earlier in the year. At the moment, the market is more concerned about losing momentum on the reopenings than the virus itself. Since its Thursday, we received the weekly jobless claims. The good news is that the downward trajectory of the past two-and-a-half months continued, as the nearly 1.51 million claims were lower than the previous week’s 1.54 million. But that’s still an ugly number and marks only a small improvement. Plus, it fell short of expectations at only 1.3 million claims. It’s especially frustrating because we’ve been getting some good economic numbers of late, including last month’s surprise employment situation report and the sharp rise in retail sales from earlier this week. Still, the market remains hopeful that we’ve seen the worst of this pandemic and that we’re in the beginning stages of a vibrant recovery. It also hopes that we can have a strong finish to the week tomorrow. The NASDAQ, which hasn’t seen a negative close in the past five days, is up 3.7% for the week heading into Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P and Dow are up 2.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Counterstrike: Buyers finally stepped in and pushed Spotify (SPOT) to all-time highs, which gave Jeremy a perfect opportunity to sell half of this successful position and pocket a 39.2% return in a little over a month. But this stock isn’t done. The editor is holding onto the other half because SPOT seems poised to hit $260. The portfolio also sold half of the volatile Teladoc (TDOC) position for an 8.9% return in a little under two months. Meanwhile, Jeremy also doubled down on natural and organic foods company United Natural Foods (UNFI). Shares dropped after an EPS shortfall in its most recent report, but the stock is still a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). In fact, a deeper dive shows a company that has plenty of positives. Therefore, this could be a classic counterstrike situation with a stock that’s set to bounceback after an unnecessary dip. The editor originally added UNFI with a small 5% allocation in late May… and he added another 5% on Thursday. Read the full write-up for more on all of today’s moves. By the way, SPOT was one of the best performers today with a gain of 12.7%, while Zscaler (ZS) also made the top five with a rise of 6.5%. Technology Innovators: Taking profits is part of having a successful portfolio, so Brian decided to cash in three of his best positions on Thursday since no one knows what’s around the next corner. He sold ACM Research (ACMR) for a 73.5% return in two months, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) for a 43% profit in less than two months and Cirrus Logic (CRUS) for 20% in about 10 months. But the editor also added today. He picked up EVO Payments (EVOP), a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) payments service provider for merchants. The company has a great earnings history with four straight beats and an average surprise of 31% over that time. Make sure to read the complete commentary for specifics on all of today’s moves. Surprise Trader: A nice move higher today from portfolio position Commercial Metals Company (CMC, +5.6%) has Dave looking to add another infrastructure name. Therefore, he picked up Schnitzer Steel (SCHN), which is one of the largest metal recycling businesses in the country. The company beat by more than 29% in its last report and should be going to the plate again next week if history is any guide, though there still isn’t a confirmed date. Nevertheless, SCHN has an Earnings ESP of 17.65% for the upcoming release, while next year’s EPS growth is slated at 435%. SCHN was added on Thursday with a 12.5% allocation. The editor also decided to sell the rest of Covetrus (CVET) for a solid 62.3% return in a little over a month. See the full report for more on today’s moves. Commodity Innovators: We’re still waiting for the oil recovery, but Jeremy isn’t going to just sit back and twiddle his thumbs in the interim. Instead, he bought one of the largest energy companies in the world on Thursday to take advantage of the bounce back. Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a $200 billion company and it pays a nice 7% dividend, which means the portfolio will be making money while it waits. Shares of XOM have found support at the 50-day after pulling back more about 15% from its highs. Obviously, you can consider this a long-term play. The editor also shed some underperformers today by selling United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) and Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT). Read the full write-up for more. Home Run Investor: Rising coronavirus cases in certain parts of the country may explain why shares of online marketplace Fiverr International (FVRR) have surged. In fact, it’s jumped so high that Brian thinks its time to take the profits. Therefore, FVRR was sold on Thursday for an impressive 178.7% return in only two-and-a-half months! And while he’s in a selling mood, the editor also got out of SpartanNash (SPTN) for a slight gain and DSP Group (DSPG) for a slight loss. Now there are several open positions in the portfolio, so get ready for more buying in the days ahead. Healthcare Innovators: With the market refusing to selloff despite being overbought, Kevin doesn’t want to wait around anymore with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY). This development-stage biopharmaceutical company is focused on the development of novel therapeutics based on RNA interference, which puts it at the forefront of groundbreaking science. The portfolio already pulled a 68% return from ALNY earlier this year. Some analysts are cautious about its valuation right now, but Kevin thinks the risks are a bit over-rated and decided this was a good spot to enter. The editor also started a small position in Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL), an emerging biopharma name that targets treatments for cancer and neurological diseases. Now this one IS considered to be highly speculative, especially since its too small for coverage from major Wall Street research houses. However, it’s a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and is making progress with some innovative products in its pipeline. Get all the specifics on these new buys in the full write-up. One more thing, this portfolio had a top performer in the session as a solid biotech space helped Editas Medicine (EDIT) rise 8.6%. All the Best, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Stocks Slip on Apple News, but Stay Positive for the Week

Stocks Slip on Apple News, but Stay Positive for the Week Everything was moving along nicely on Friday until Apple said it would be re-closing stores in a handful of states. Stocks took a turn for the worse after the announcement, but still easily secured their fourth positive week in the past five. The NASDAQ now has a 6-day winning streak and advanced 3.7% for the week. Meanwhile, the S&P was up 1.9%, while the Dow advanced 1% over the past five days. It’s a solid reversal from last week’s sharp step back, which was brought about by the epic June 11th selloff that saw all indices plunge by more than 5% and the Dow drop over 1860 points. However, this week’s advance didn’t get any help from Friday’s session. The big blow was Apple (AAPL) announcing that it would re-close 11 stores in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina. These states have seen sharper rises in coronavirus cases than most. The news really hit the market right in the gut, since its main concern right now is that an increase in cases could impact or completely stop the economic reopenings and jeopardize the recovery. The S&P’s first rebalancing of the year and quadruple witching also added to the volatility today. The NASDAQ managed to keep its winning run alive… but only by the slimmest of margins. The index rose 0.03% (or about 3 points) to 9946.12. But it still counts! Unfortunately, the other indices couldn’t follow on Friday. The Dow slipped 0.80% (or about 208 points) to 25,871.46, while the S&P was off 0.56% to 3097.74.   So we’re back to watching the daily count of coronavirus cases, which we knew was necessary once the states started to reopen. But this time we’re better prepared to deal with the sickness and, most importantly, are keeping relatively calm unlike earlier this year. Let’s just keep our masks on and continue moving forward…   Today's Portfolio Highlights: Options Trader: There’s a lot of innovation in the biotech sector right now, both in fighting the coronavirus and in treating a countless number of other diseases and disorders. In fact, it’s difficult for investors to pick just one or two names. However, Kevin found a way to play the whole sector. On Friday, the editor added a few bull call spreads in S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which tracks the S&P Biotech Select industry and has holdings in Moderna (MRNA), Regeneron (REGN), Biomarin (BMRN), Vertex (VRTX) and Gilead (GILD), among many others. The portfolio bought to open 3 Oct 107.00 Calls AND sold to open 3 October 115.00 Calls. If XBI can climb a little more than 7% from here by the mid-October expiration, then these spreads will bring a return of 122%. Read the full write-up for more specifics on these spreads.  Blockchain Innovators: The additive manufacturing industry has been coming around to blockchain for a while now to provide greater security during the 3D printing process. Stratasys (SSYS) is already using the technology with its products, which piqued Dave's interest right from the start. The editor also likes that earnings estimates are finally turning higher and that there's plenty of ground to recover before reaching recent highs above $29. Plus, next year's revenue growth is forecast to come in at 12.14%, while EPS is set to grow 164.1%. Dave likes what he sees with SSYS and added the stock to the portfolio on Friday. Read the full write-up for more.   Home Run Investor: The portfolio shed a lot of names this week, including a triple-digit profit in Fiverr International (FVRR) yesterday. Therefore, Brian will be adding a few positions in the coming days, which he started on Friday by picking up Rambus (RMBS). This chip stock doesn’t have the best earnings history, but the editor is most interested with its rising earnings estimates. In fact, RMBS is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). It also has a great valuation and achieved revenue growth of 32% in its most recent quarter. Read the full write-up for more on this new pick. Insider Trader: "What will the consumer do? It's unlikely that the US consumer will go back to the severe restrictions and full lockdown we saw in April this summer. Even if some states have outbreaks, it will be a more select shutdown and restrictions. "That's good news for the US economy. The key is getting as many people back to work as possible in travel and the restaurant industries. "There will also still be another big stimulus package coming before August. There's still ongoing debate as to what will be in it. But it should provide another boost to the economy, which should help with some of the set-backs that are going to be inevitable. "Even with stocks trading near highs, our strategy remains unchanged: don't fight the Fed (or Congress)." -- Tracey Ryniec Have a Great Weekend! Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

S&P, NASDAQ Each Gain Over 1% to Keep the Records Coming

S&P, NASDAQ Each Gain Over 1% to Keep the Records Coming Another strong performance from tech kept the NASDAQ and S&P on their record-breaking paces Wednesday, while the Dow also closed higher after snapping a three-day winning streak yesterday. All of the FAANGs were solidly higher in the session, especially Netflix (NFLX, +11.6%) and Facebook (FB, +8.2%). Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) were both up nearly 3%, while Apple (AAPL) rose about 1.4% following a rare decline for the $2 trillion company on Tuesday. As a result, the NASDAQ easily outperformed its counterparts by rising 1.73% (or just under 200 points) to 11,665.06. Meanwhile, the S&P jumped 1.02% to 3478.73. The NASDAQ has now made history for five straight days, while the S&P has put together four consecutive record highs. One of the biggest stories on Wednesday, though, was software company  salesforce.com (CRM), which soared 26% after beating second-quarter expectations and raising its revenue guidance. Remember that CRM will be joining the Dow on Monday. Speaking of the Dow, the index advanced 0.30% (or about 83 points) to 28,331.92. It has now been up in four of the past five days. We also enjoyed some good news outside of technology and salesforce. Moderna (MDRA) released encouraging results for its coronavirus vaccine, sending the stock higher by 6.4%. In addition, durable goods orders surged over 11% in July, which easily beat expectations and marked three consecutive months of gains. Now, we’re gearing up for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement at the virtual Jackson Hole conference  tomorrow. It seems like he will be outlining a shift in policy designed to increase inflation. It was a week ago today that the market reacted negatively to a cautious tone in the Fed minutes, in which Powell warned that the pandemic could impact the economy’s near and medium terms. So it’ll be interesting to hear what Mr. Powell has to say, but even more interesting to see how this exuberant market reacts. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Home Run Investor: It’s always great to find a company with huge EPS estimate increases and a good valuation. Well, that’s exactly what Brian added on Wednesday with Griffon Corporation (GFF). This diversified play has 3 major business lines, including tools & home storage; garage & rolling steel doors; and surveillance & communications products. The company beat earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters with the most recent report surprising by a hefty 391%. The editor was extremely impressed with its margin expansion and the upward estimate revisions for this year and next, which explains why GFF is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It also has a “super cheap” 15x forward earnings and a 2.1x book. Meanwhile, the portfolio sold Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) and The Lovesac Company (LOVE) today with the former bringing in a return of more than 10%. Read the complete commentary for a lot more on these moves. By the way, Dynatrace (DT) advanced 8.75% in the session, which was one of the best performing stocks of the day. Insider Trader: Who doesn’t like new buys? Tracey wanted some fresh picks in the portfolio, so she added two names on Wednesday. Apple Hospitality (APLE) is a hotel REIT, so it is obviously a recovery play. However, the important thing here is that nearly all of its properties are outside urban areas, which are having a tougher time with this pandemic. This month has seen three insiders pick up shares. The other buy is Coeur Mining (CDE), which operates gold and silver mines in North America. Shares are up 62% over the past year, but that hasn’t stopped a director from buying several times throughout the year, including earlier this month. The editor added APLE and CDE today with about 9% allocations each. She also sold the underperforming Sally Beauty (SBH). Read the full write-up for tons more info on today’s moves. Large-Cap Trader: There doesn’t have to be a deeper meaning behind every portfolio change. Case in point, John swapped out three positions on Wednesday simply to “put up some new, mostly tech names, and take some tech profits”. He sold Akamai Technologies (AKAM) for a 9.6% return, Microchip Technology (MCHP) for a profit of 5.8%, and Pentair (PNR) brought in 6.3%. The new buys that filled these spots were: • Applied Materials (AMAT) • KLA Corp. (KLAC) • Halliburton (HAL) All of these stocks are Zacks Rank #2s (Buys). AMAT and KLAC are both chip names that have been in the portfolio before, while HAL is an oilfield services giant that’s a play on the rebounding domestic energy sector. Read the full write-up for a lot more on all of today’s moves. Surprise Trader: At a time of social distancing, the safest vacations involve activities like camping, fishing and hunting. That’s good news for a company like Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH), which is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) outdoor sporting goods retailer that hasn’t missed earnings since May 2019. It beat by more than 116% last time and has a positive Earnings ESP of 25.81% for the quarter being reported after the bell on Wednesday, September 2. Expectations of 31 cents suggest year-over-year improvement of more than 138%. Dave added SPWH on Wednesday with a 12.5% allocation, while also selling Autohome (ATHM) for a slight loss. Read the full write-up for more on today’s moves. All the Best, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. 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Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021