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Category: blogSource: benzingaDec 4th, 2021

Three Bizarre Reasons Why Inflation Is Here To Stay

When I was about five years old in the early 1980s, my dad brought home our first computer. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I’ll never forget it– it was an clunky IBM with a tiny, orange, monochromatic monitor, and dual floppy disks. It had 640 kilobytes of RAM, and no hard disk. […] When I was about five years old in the early 1980s, my dad brought home our first computer. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I’ll never forget it– it was an clunky IBM with a tiny, orange, monochromatic monitor, and dual floppy disks. It had 640 kilobytes of RAM, and no hard disk. I loved it. With that computer I learned how to program, how to navigate a command-line interface, how to design algorithms, and how to solve constant problems… because it was ridiculously buggy and would break down all the time. It was also painfully slow. The boot-up process could easily take an hour, from the time I flipped on the power switch, to the time I saw the ‘DOS prompt’. Sometimes I think that computer is a great metaphor for the global economy. Turning it off is nothing; you flip the switch and the power goes off. But starting it back up again takes a long time. And the process isn’t so smooth– sometimes it crashes during bootup. The Great Plague Last March when the Great Plague was upon us, nearly every industry, in nearly every country in the world, practically shut down. And many businesses went bust, never to return. Eighteen months later businesses have largely reopened. But like my old computer, the reboot process has been riddled with critical errors and system failures. For example, right now there are countless businesses in industries from retail to manufacturing that are experiencing severe labor shortages. Supply chains around the world are breaking down, resulting in product shortages and major transportation bottlenecks. The end result of this dumpster fire is that prices are soaring. And I wanted to spend some time today connecting the dots to help explain some of these important trends. Let’s go back to last March again when everything shut down. You probably recall that dozens of large companies declared bankruptcy, like Nieman Marcus, GNC, JC Penny, etc. But there were other companies that went bust which most people have probably never heard of. They were in more mundane, less sexy industries… like corrugated paper and wood pulp. Yet while their demise was hardly noticed, it turns out they would have a significant impact on the global economy. Surge In Global Shipping Demand Global shipping demand surged last year in ways that had never been seen before. Suddenly, instead of efficient supply chains shipping goods to large marketplaces (like retail and grocery stores), consumers wanted everything delivered to them. While the total volume of shipping was largely the same (or even less) than previous years, the number of individual shipments increased dramatically. In other words, instead of a single large shipment to a store or supermarket, companies were making thousands of tiny shipments to individual consumers. This meant more trips… and more packaging. More cardboard boxes. More plastic wrap. More plastic containers. More Styrofoam. And the prices for all of these materials has spiked. The price for polyethylene, for example, which is used extensively in shipping, has increased from $820 per ton to $1,850 per ton. Polypropylene prices are also up from $1,100 per ton to $1,770 per ton. It’s a similar trend with cardboard and corrugated paper. And these price increases aren’t simply due to high demand either. Supply has fallen. Last March when a number of wood pulp producers went out of business, no one noticed and no one cared. But it turned out that more than 10% of all North American paper capacity vanished, practically overnight, just before demand started to surge. And this capacity cannot be simply turned on again with a flip of a switch. It takes a lot of effort to resurrect a bankrupt factory, to re-hire and re-train workers. (We’ll get to the worker issue in a moment.) It’s a similar trend around the world– foreign factories have closed, and those that remain open are struggling to retain workers and operate under strict COVID protocols. Manufacturing efficiency is way down as a result, so they’re not producing enough supply to keep up with demand. The Actual Shipping Problems Then there are the actual shipping problems– the crazy delays, especially on the West Coast of the United States, that prevent container ships from delivering their cargo. It’s not that there aren’t enough ships in the world; in fact, the total global capacity in terms of TEUs, or 20-foot Equivalent Units, is slightly higher than pre-pandemic. But a range of factors, including COVID rules and union regulations, means there’s a shortage of maritime crew to operate the vessels. There’s also a shortage of dockworkers, truck drivers, forklift operators, etc. at the ports. This is especially true in California, whose regulatory environment makes port operations extremely difficult and inefficient. Yet sadly for the United States, California’s ports are the busiest and most important in the country; most of the seafreight from China is offloaded at the Port of Long Beach or Port of Los Angeles, so bottlenecks there cause a major ripple effect across the country. Right now there is a backlog of ships waiting to unload their cargo in southern California. This makes the COVID policies of California especially important for the rest of the United States; whatever Gavin Newsome decides has a huge impact on the national economy. Labor Shortage Labor is obviously another major issue in this messy economic reboot. Thanks to a steady digest of mass media Covid hysteria, there are still plenty of people who are terrified to leave their homes and go to work. Moreover, there are so many people who got used to being home over the past 18-months, that now they only want a job where they can work from home. This is a major problem for businesses… and why it’s so hard for restaurant companies, fast food joints, retail shops, factories, etc. to find workers. People would rather stay home. The government hasn’t exactly been helpful in this department when they were paying outsized unemployment benefits to encourage everyone to stay home. That effect is lingering. There’s another trend at work here, though. For the last several years, politicians have been fighting hard to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. It turns out that no one really wanted those jobs to begin with. Younger people in particular don’t have as much interest in those sorts of traditional jobs; they’d rather be ‘influencers’ and make their money posting butt selfies and snapshots of their contrived lifestyle. This was already becoming an issue prior to COVID; large companies– especially those in industries that were considered unappealing to Gen Z– were complaining how difficult it was to hire, train, and retain young workers. Now it’s borderline impossible. Businesses also have to compete with the government for labor, which has gobbled up workers and put them to work as ‘contact tracers’. And retail companies that are lucky enough to find employees are forced to misallocate those scarce resources to do unproductive tasks, like checking everyone’s ‘papers’ when customers walk through the door. And then, of course, if a business has been able to navigate all of those crazy obstacles, Hunter Biden’s dad is now forcing you to fire any worker who hasn’t been [unmentionable word– thanks Google]. Federal Reserve’s Monetary Blowout On top of all of the above is the Federal Reserve’s monetary blowout. They’ve printed trillions of dollars over the past 18 months to ‘support the economy’. Yet even though the unemployment rate is down to 4.8%, they’re STILL printing at least $120 billion per month in new money. All that new money has helped fuel giant asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, property, and commodities. Energy prices in particular have risen sharply, and this tends to cause all other prices to rise. The result of all of this insanity is inflation. Lots of it. The problem is that most of these trends are not going away anytime soon. The Fed may start to taper its money printing. But they have very little room to raise interest rates meaningfully to combat inflation. Plus the labor issues, government policy, shipping, manufacturing shortages, etc. are going to last for a while. In fact, you’d think the correct government policy right now would be to create incentives for people to work, to create new businesses, and to invest in new technology that could automate and clean up the bottlenecks. At a minimum you’d think they’d stay the hell away and let capitalism do its job. After all, free market competition is one of the greatest tools to fix any economic woes, especially inefficiencies and resource misallocation. Yet all of the policies they’re proposing are anti-competitive and anti-market. They want to create DISINCENTIVES to form businesses and make investments. It’s the exact opposite of what they should be doing. (This is what happens when you put a socialist in charge of writing the budget.) So the next time one of these politicians or central bankers say that inflation is ‘transitory’, you can be certain they’re completely clueless about what’s happening in the real world. On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That's why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here. Inside you'll learn... How you could Double Your Money with an asset That Has a 5,000 Year History of Prosperity Why gold could potentially DOUBLE, and why silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES The 5 smartest, safest and most lucrative ways to own gold and silver (and one way you should definitely avoid) Why gold is the ultimate anti-currency and insurance policy against the systematic destruction of the US dollar (that everyone should at least consider owning) Why ETFs are a lurking timebomb and why you want to avoid them like the plague And everything else you need to know about buying, owning, storing and investing in precious metals This 50-page report is brand new and absolutely free. Article by Simon Black, Sovereig Mman Updated on Oct 15, 2021, 4:01 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 15th, 2021

Children’s Furniture Market On The Rise Despite COVID-19

Most industries in the UK have been impacted in some way by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the furniture market is no different. However, thanks to increased parent spending on children’s bedrooms, nurseries, and playrooms, the global children’s furniture market is growing and is predicted to be worth USD $41.6 billion by 2027. Q3 2021 hedge […] Most industries in the UK have been impacted in some way by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the furniture market is no different. However, thanks to increased parent spending on children’s bedrooms, nurseries, and playrooms, the global children’s furniture market is growing and is predicted to be worth USD $41.6 billion by 2027. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more An improvement in the general standard of living and rising disposable income has led to growth in the furniture market. This increase in purchasing power has seen a significant increase in demand for children's furniture. “The beds industry had a noticeable surge in sales during covid, with many families concentrating on home improvements, this was hindered by international shipping and cost of bring in materials " – Ashley Hainsworth, Director of Bed Kingdom Parent Preference The desire to incorporate children's toys, books, and clothes in one place is driving up demand for multifunctional furniture, such as bunk beds and cabinets. Meanwhile, increasing real estate prices are expected to affect the sizes of homes, especially children-centred rooms, creating valuable growth opportunities for businesses offering easy to assemble furniture for children's rooms. Parents opting for furniture made from durable materials and offering both multifunctionality and a wide choice of colours is expected to create additional growth opportunities for key market players. As theme-based interior design continues to increase in popularity, parents want furniture with the appropriate shapes and colours to compliment their chosen theme. Product Insights Cribs, Cots, And Beds Cribs, cots, and children's beds have the largest market share of children's furniture sales at 40% and are the most popular furniture items purchased for children's rooms. Bunk Beds The increased use of bunk beds, especially metal bunk beds, in residential schools, dormitories, hostels and military bases, will likely create growth opportunities for manufacturers. Parents typically choose bunk beds as they have the same footprint as a single bed but allow two or more individuals to sleep within the same space. However, bunk beds typically have a limited lifespan, as the top bed can become difficult for children, adolescents, and young adults to access, potentially impacting the growth of the bunk bed market. Europe and North America are the bunk bed market leaders and are predicted to maintain this position due to the growing popularity of outdoor activities, such as summer camps. Storage, Chests, And Cabinets Chests, dressers, and cabinets are expected to experience the fastest CAGR at 5.4% from 2019 to 2025. While these items are relatively low-cost and easy to assemble, they also help teach organizational skills, which all combine to drive up product demand in the upcoming years. Material Insights Wood furniture has the largest market share at 60% when it comes to children's furniture. Wood furniture designed for children comes in both hardwood and softwood. Hardwood items are relatively more expensive, sourced from walnut, mahogany, rosewood, teak, beech, cherry, oak, maple, birch, and ash. Hardwood furniture items are far more durable and require relatively minimal maintenance. Softwood furniture comes from yew, redwood, juniper, cedar, larch, fir, spruce, and pine. These types of wood are lightweight, generally have a better finish, and can absorb adhesive. Regional Insights Europe, in recent years, has had the biggest market share for children's furniture at 40%. It's anticipated that the region will continue to hold this position as the strongest market player for children's furniture, particularly in countries such as Italy, France, the UK, and Germany who continue to maintain a strong market presence both online and offline. Meanwhile, it's predicted that Asia Pacific will experience the fastest CAGR from 2019 to 2025 at 5.4%. Australia, India, China, and Japan are the key consumers in the province. Increasing demand for American and English style children's furniture in Fast East regions such as the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will drive regional growth. Also, the substantially high birth rate will also likely fuel the demand. A relatively stable if not growing employment market in Indonesia, Maldives, South Korea, Bangladesh, India, and China has also helped improve its consumers' economic status, boosting buying power and product demand. Children's Furniture Market There's a huge amount of competition in the global children's furniture market. From companies offering high-end bespoke pieces to more affordable pieces, consumers must assemble them themselves at home. Consumers have a vast amount of choice depending on their style, budget, and material preferences, whether they are looking for beds, dressers, cabinets, or other storage items. Some of the top key players in the international children's furniture market include: Summer Infant Inc Sorelle Furniture Milliard Bedding Legare KidKraft Ikea Graco Dream on Me INC Bombay Dyeing Ashley Home Stores, Ltd Designer Children's Furniture The children's furniture market has seen a growing shift in preference for designer furniture. Increased awareness of environmental issues and the impact of plastic on the natural world has led many manufacturers and brands to explore new opportunities in designer children's furniture. The children's designer furniture market has also seen a wave of furniture made from discarded plastic toys and recycled plastic. This has led to the plastic material portion of the children's furniture market, expecting to reach around 200 million units by 2027. In recent years, the designer children's furniture market has seen several startups looking to capitalize on this growing and profitable trend. However, convincing parent consumers of the attraction and virtues of children's furniture made from recycled materials is a challenge. However, as startups collaborate with international brands and focus on innovative developments to improve children's comfort, it's expected that this share of the market will continue to attract eco-conscious parents. The global children's furniture market is experiencing a huge transformation. Intelligent furniture, more inclusive designs, and the use of eco-friendly materials are changing the shape of the market. Children's furniture manufacturers and brands are improving their capabilities to create and build high-quality furniture that meets customer demand for attractive and functional items and long-lasting products that will stand the test of time. However, those more green-conscious designers and manufacturers will continue to challenge convincing consumers of sustainable furniture's aesthetic and cost credentials. Therefore, companies shouldn't forget that even in our modern eco-conscious world, safety, quality, quantity, and longevity are the number one priority for most consumers looking to invest in furniture for their children's bedrooms, playrooms, and nurseries. Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 2:41 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 14th, 2021

Why Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is a Must Buy Right Now

A solid housing market backdrop, buyouts and digital solutions are encouraging for Builders FirstSource (BLDR). Solid momentum in the housing market has been a silver lining for building product suppliers. The migration of consumers to larger suburban and second homes is resulting in substantial square footage growth, thereby driving accelerated home products demand.Also, consumers are gradually shaking off worries about inflation and the rising cases of new variant Omicron. This is evident from the latest consumer confidence data. Consumer confidence improved in December, following a very modest gain in November. Importantly, as highlighted by Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, “expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased.”Hence, among the bellwethers, Builders FirstSource Inc. BLDR has been gaining from the industry tailwinds. Also, the company’s focus on strategic acquisitions and divestitures, cost synergies as well as digital solutions bodes well.Shares of this leading supplier of building materials, manufactured components and construction services have rallied 97.1% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Building Products – Retail industry’s 39.4% growth. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Full-year 2022 earnings estimates for this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company have moved 1.9% upward to $6.86 per share over the past seven days. This positive trend signifies bullish analysts’ sentiments, indicating robust fundamentals and the expectation of outperformance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.What Makes the Stock an Attractive Pick?Inorganic DriveSystematic acquisition is an important growth strategy for Builders FirstSource in order to supplement organic growth and expand extensively across vast geographic boundaries. The company’s first selective targets are those entities manufacturing prefabricated components such as factory-built roof and floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood as well as other value-added products such as vinyl windows and millwork. Secondly, the company intends to enter some of the homebuilding markets wherein it does not currently operate.On Sep 1, 2021, the company acquired certain assets and operations of CTF Holdings Limited Partnership. Prior to the acquisition, CTF was the largest independent truss manufacturer in California, supplying framing contractors and builders in both single and multifamily markets.On Aug 17, 2021, the company acquired certain assets and operations of WTS Paradigm, LLC (“Paradigm”), a software solutions and services provider for the building products industry. This buyout expands the company’s digital capabilities and aligns with its broader vision to provide digital solutions improving efficiency in the homebuilding process.Focus on Digital SolutionsBuilders FirstSource remains focused on investing in innovations and enhancing digital solutions for customers. On Sep 9, 2021, the company acquired the Apollo software assets from a construction technology startup, Katerra. The platform provides design collaboration and workflow, construction budgeting and scheduling as well as field task assignment with mobile functionality. Much optimism can be noted in this regard, as the company intends to boost long-term value through digital transformation. Also, during second-quarter 2021, the company adopted new logistics technologies, mainly delivery and dispatch management system. Its digital strategy includes three major areas — to focus on internal processes and productivity by investing in technology to drive operational efficiency as well as excellence, to help streamline interactions with vendors and customers, and to focus on external innovation and investment to offer value-added digital products and services that support customers' success and growth.Focus on Cost SynergiesThe company’s elevated scale and a very comfortable balance sheet position enable it to project an annual run-rate synergy of $140 million to $160 million by the end of 2022, indicating an overachievement in just two years compared with the original three-year commitment between $130 million and $150 million. The company continued its focus on achieving higher operating leverage on the back of higher sales and robust expense controls by offsetting higher variable costs. Builders FirstSource is focused on cost-saving initiatives and implementing various plans for the same. Owing to this, the company is expected to provide greater resources to invest in growth, innovation and non-stop value creation for all its shareholders.Other Top-Ranked Stocks From the Broader Retail-Wholesale SectorGMS Inc. GMS presently has a Zacks Rank #1. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.9%, on average. Shares of GMS have gained 73.9% over the past year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMS’ sales and earnings per share for the current financial year suggests an improvement of 36.6% and 100.6%, respectively, from the year-ago period.Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. BECN presently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 566.8%, on average. Shares of BECN have gained 30.7% over the past year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BECN’s sales and earnings per share for the current financial year suggests an improvement of 6.7% and 9.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period.Fastenal Company FAST presently has a Zacks Rank #2. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average. Shares of FAST have gained 20.3% over the past year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FAST’s sales and earnings for the current financial year suggests an improvement of 8.8% and 9.6%, respectively, from the year-ago period. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 5 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fastenal Company (FAST): Free Stock Analysis Report Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. (BECN): Free Stock Analysis Report Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Free Stock Analysis Report GMS Inc. (GMS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 14th, 2022

Elon Musk says all children must be aware of these 50 cognitive biases, and to avoid them

In order to avoid falling into cognitive biases, it's important to understand what they are and how to recognize them. Musk shared this view on Twitter, garnering over 64,000 retweets and 315,000 likes.Theo Wargo/Getty Images for TIME Elon Musk listed the 50 cognitive biases he thinks all children should be aware of. The biases are described in an infographic that was first published by TitleMax. The list is designed to help you make better decisions. Cognitive biases are shortcuts your mind uses when you need to make a decision quickly. They can cause you to act against your best interests or the most logical option. In the past, they helped humans to survive. Nowadays, however, they can be a burden in day-to-day life, affecting your decision-making. It's therefore important for people to understand what they are and how to recognize them. This can help people to avoid falling into them.Elon Musk shared this view on Twitter, garnering over 64,000 retweets and 315,000 likes.They "should be taught to all at a young age," he wrote, attaching an image of an infographic that lists the "50 cognitive biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you."The infographic is taken from TitleMax, which published it around two years ago."Knowing about this list of biases can help you make more informed decisions and realize when you're way off the mark," TitleMax explained.1. Fundamental Attribution Error: We judge others on their personality or fundamental character, but we judge ourselves on the situation.2. Self-Serving Bias: Our failures are situational, but our successes are our responsibility.3. In-Group Favoritism: We favor people who are in our in-group as opposed to an out-group.4. Bandwagon Effect: Ideas, fads and beliefs grow as more people adopt them.5. Groupthink: Due to a desire for conformity and harmony in the group, we make irrational decisions, often to minimize conflict.6. Halo Effect: If you see a person as having a positive trait, that positive impression will spill over into their other traits. (This also works for negative traits).7. Moral Luck: Better moral standing happens due to a positive outcome; worse moral standing happens due to a negative outcome.8. False Consensus: We believe more people agree with us than is actually the case.9. Curse of Knowledge: Once we know something, we assume everyone else knows it, too.10. Spotlight Effect: We overestimate how much people are paying attention to our behavior and appearance.11. Availability Heuristic: We rely on immediate examples that come to mind while making judgments.12. Defensive Attribution: As a witness who secretly fears being vulnerable to a serious mishap, we will blame the victim less and the attacker more if we relate to the victim.13. Just-World Hypothesis: We tend to believe the world is just; therefore, we assume acts of injustice are deserved.14. Naïve Realism: We believe that we observe objective reality and that others are irrational, uninformed, or biased.15. Naïve Cynicism: We believe that we observe objective reality and that other people have a higher egocentric bias than they actually do in their intentions/actions.16. Forer Effect (aka Barnum Effect): We easily attribute our personalities to vague statements, even if they can apply to a wide range of people.17. Dunning-Kruger Effect: The less you know, the more confident you are. The more you know, the less confident you are.18. Anchoring: We rely heavily on the first information introduced when making decisions.19. Automation Bias: We rely on automated systems, sometimes trusting too much in the automated correction of the actually correct decisions.20. Google effect (aka Digital Amnesia): We tend to forget information that's easily looked up in search engines.21. Reactance: We do the opposite of what we're told, especially when we perceive threats to personal freedoms.22. Confirmation Bias: We tend to find and remember information that confirms our perceptions.23. Backfire Effect: Disproving evidence sometimes has the unwarranted effect of confirming our beliefs.24. Third-Person Effect: We believe that others are more affected by mass media consumption than we ourselves are.25. Belief Bias: We judge an argument's strength not by how strongly it supports the conclusion but how plausible the conclusion is in our own minds.26. Availability Cascade: Tied to our need for social acceptance, collective beliefs gain more plausibility through public repetition.27. Declinism: We tend to romanticize the past and view the future negatively, believing that societies/institutions are by and in large in decline.28. Status Quo Bias: We tend to prefer things to stay the same; changes from the baseline are considered to be a loss.29. Sunk Cost Fallacy (aka Escalation of Commitment): We invest more in things that have cost us something rather than altering our investments, even if we face negative outcomes.30. Gambler's Fallacy: We think future possibilities are affected by past events.31. Zero-Risk Bias: We prefer to reduce small risks to zero, even if we can reduce more risk overall with another option.32. Framing Effect: We often draw different conclusions from the same information depending on how it's presented.33. Stereotyping: We adopt generalized beliefs that members of a group will have certain characteristics, despite not having information about the individual.34. Outgroup Homogeneity Bias: We perceive outgroup members as homogeneous and our own ingroups as more diverse.35. Authority Bias: We trust and are more often influenced by the opinions of authority figures.36. Placebo Effect*: If we believe a treatment will work, it often will have a small physiological effect.37. Survivorship bias: We tend to focus on those things that survived a process and overlook ones that failed.38. Tachypsychia: Our perceptions of time shift depending on trauma, drug use, and physical exertion.39. Law of Triviality (aka "Bike-Shedding"): We give disproportionate weight to trivial issues, often while avoiding more complex issues.40. Zeigarnik Effect: We remember incomplete tasks more than completed ones.41. IKEA Effect: We place higher value on things we have partially created ourselves.42. Ben Franklin Effect: We like doing favors; we are more likely to do another favor for someone if we've already done a favor for them than if we had received a favor from that person.43. Bystander Effect: The more other people are around, the less likely we are to help a victim. (though this technically isn't a cognitive bias, it's another important form of bias, according to TitleMax).44. Suggestibility: We, especially children, sometimes mistake ideas suggested by a questioner for memories.45. False Memory: We mistake imagination for real memories.46. Cryptomnesia: We mistake real memories for imagination.47. Clustering Illusion: We find patterns and "clusters" in random data.48. Pessimism Bias: We sometimes overestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes.49. Optimism Bias: We sometimes are over-optimistic about good outcomes.50. Blind Spot Bias: We don't think we have bias, and we see it in others more than ourselves.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 13th, 2022

8 Staging Secrets from a Top Real Estate Professional

Sell faster. And for more money. This is what every home seller (and agent) wants. And according to the Real Estate Staging Association, staged homes sell 73% faster with an average 297% return on investment. With so many differing opinions on home staging, we turned to Jay Hart, a co-principal at Sold with Style, a […] The post 8 Staging Secrets from a Top Real Estate Professional appeared first on RISMedia. Sell faster. And for more money. This is what every home seller (and agent) wants. And according to the Real Estate Staging Association, staged homes sell 73% faster with an average 297% return on investment. With so many differing opinions on home staging, we turned to Jay Hart, a co-principal at Sold with Style, a pre-sale consulting and home staging service for clients in and around NYC, to give us his best intelligence on staging. Hart’s staging advice is often featured in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, as well as a spotlight on HGTV’s “Selling NY.” 1. Home staging is all about making more money. Staging is a business move, not just making things look pretty. In many markets, you should be able to get a three to ten-time return on your staging investment. “I recently worked with a client who debated spending $5,000 on flooring. In the end, we convinced him to invest in the flooring and it resulted in a $150,000 price increase,” says Hart. 2. Your best offers will come in the first 40 days. This means the house needs to be in order and staged by the time you take listing photos, so that the very first day on the market, it can sell. “We see many sellers who decide they won’t make any changes to their home until it’s on the market for a while. They create if-then lists, which are never good: If the property doesn’t sell, then I’ll invest in some new paint,” says Hart. “The thing is, buyers don’t want to do the things on your if-then list. They don’t want to have to take down all of the wallpaper the seller put up 30 years ago. They see the amount of time or money they would have to put into the property and decide to move on.” And unfortunately, if you don’t get to your if-then list in the first 40 days, your sellers are going to lose a lot of potential buyers. 3. Buyers really don’t want to choose their own style. Many sellers or real estate agents abstain from making updates to a property because they think a buyer will want to choose their own style. “This is the single worst piece of advice a real estate agent can give a seller,” says Hart. “Only 10% of the people on the market are looking for a fixer-upper, and those people want a really great deal on a house. You’re losing 90% of your potential market by not making any updates,” says Hart. 4. If you don’t make the updates, that money is already gone. Oftentimes sellers are concerned that the updates they make on their home won’t be worth it financially. But Hart says that if they don’t make the improvements, that money is already gone. They can fix it now, or the buyer will just end up deducting it from their offer price. If sellers have many updates to make to the home, they can prioritize by making small bathroom or kitchen improvements first, which will get the most return. This includes things such as painting, re-glazing a blue bathtub, installing a new toilet, updating lighting, and so forth. 5. Stay true to the architecture. When staging a home, it’s important your clients stay consistent with the architecture of the home. This means staying away from ultra-modern designs in a Tudor, and so forth. 6. Perceived space is worth money, too. Whether the home you are selling is 500 square feet or 5,000 square feet, squeeze every inch of perceived space out of it. This means de-cluttering both horizontally and vertically. Hart says that another area to look for perceived space is a deck, patio, or outdoor living area. “While this isn’t counted toward the square footage of a home, it’s perceived as an extra room to homebuyers, and buyers value that.” 7. Don’t forget who your market is. It’s important a home is staged to capture the attention of the largest market demographic who might be interested in that house. Is the house in a young, cool, hip area where you might have a lot of single buyers? Make sure design choices reflect that. Is your target market 30-50-year-old couples with young children? Then you’ll want to ensure the house reflects what type of lifestyle their family can have while living there. 8. Encourage your clients to disconnect from their home. The way they are using their space now might not be the most appealing to potential buyers. They should know who the target market is that you’re going after, and make sure all spaces in their house reflect that. McKissock Learning is the nation’s premier online real estate school, providing continuing education courses and professional development to hundreds of thousands of real estate agents across the country. As part of the Colibri Real Estate family of premier education brands, McKissock Learning, along with its sister schools Real Estate Express, Superior School of Real Estate, Allied Schools, The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, Gold Coast Schools, The Rockwell Institute and Hondros Education Group, helps real estate professionals achieve sustainable success throughout each stage of their real estate career. Learn more at mckissock.com/real-estate. The post 8 Staging Secrets from a Top Real Estate Professional appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJan 13th, 2022

Don’t Let Journalists Turn You Away From This Early-Stage Tech Opportunity

“What is Internet, anyway?” Bryant Gumbel asked this on The Today Show in 1994. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Source: TODAY Looking back on this, it’s easy to laugh. This was long before our lives revolved around the internet. Most people had no idea what the internet would become. Even fewer folks were thinking […] “What is Internet, anyway?” Bryant Gumbel asked this on The Today Show in 1994. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Source: TODAY Looking back on this, it’s easy to laugh. This was long before our lives revolved around the internet. Most people had no idea what the internet would become. Even fewer folks were thinking about how to invest in it. But those who saw the incredible potential of the internet went on to create the world’s most important businesses. Think Jeff Bezos and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)… Marc Benioff and Salesforce (NYSE:CRM)… Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). Of course, entrepreneurs weren’t the only ones to cash in on the internet. Countless everyday investors made life-changing money as stocks like Netflix rose over 3,000%. But the truth is, most investors did NOT buy into these incredible stocks early on. Do you know why? Because most folks failed to tune out the naysayers. New megatrends always seem like a joke in the beginning… When they’re first getting started, world-changing megatrends have far more detractors than supporters. Those detractors often populate the major media. They’re loud, and they’re everywhere. So, it’s easy to listen to them. But listening to naysayers is one of the worst mistakes you can make as an investor. Just imagine if you shrugged off investing in the internet in its early days because some journalist called it a passing fad. Source: Daily Mail Of course, the internet is just one highly profitable megatrend that was mocked and dismissed during its early days. An Obituary For Bitcoin No one respected bitcoin (BTC) when it was worth $0.0008… Bitcoin is the world’s most popular and valuable cryptocurrency. It was created in 2009. In its very early days, hardly anyone besides hard-core libertarians and “cypherpunks” even knew about bitcoin. Cypherpunks are a group of folks who believe the privacy-enhancing technology behind bitcoin is a game changer. Word eventually got out about this underground technology. And once again, journalists, politicians, and even some respected investors were quick to dismiss it as a scam. Bitcoin has been declared “dead” more than four hundred times, according to website 99Bitcoins. Whether it was worth pennies on the dollar, or over $60,000 per coin, someone wrote an obituary for bitcoin. Source: 99Bitcoins Bitcoin is obviously alive and well. Today, it’s worth more than $900 billion, and its price has rallied more than 5,700,000,000% since its creation. Bitcoin’s incredible rally has also given rise to thousands of other cryptocurrency projects. The secure blockchain technology that’s behind crypto is revolutionizing the way people borrow and lend money. Of course, very few people recognized the immense potential of cryptocurrencies back in 2009. The same is true of the internet. Hardly anyone could have predicted that we’d use the internet to interact with our friends and family, and shop for everything from groceries to cars. So, it’s only fair to cut the journalists some slack. After all, it’s not like journalists are paid to see the big picture… The same goes for the talking heads on TV. Their job is to entertain people. It’s not to help folks envision the future and invest in it. So, you shouldn’t look to them for investing advice. I mention all this because another massive money-making opportunity is staring us in the face right now. Just like the internet and bitcoin, it may sound “farfetched.” But please, don’t dismiss it as a fad. Metaverse: An Early-Stage Tech Opportunity The metaverse is the biggest tech opportunity since the creation of the internet… If you’ve been reading RiskHedge, you know the metaverse is a new, 3D, immersive internet. A virtual world where you, through an avatar, can socialize with other people, work, play, create, and basically exist. Much of what takes place on the internet today could soon take place inside the metaverse. And it’s just now starting to get the attention it deserves. But there are still many folks in the media who are dismissing the metaverse. Just look at this recent headline from The Guardian. It’s calling the metaverse a “boondoggle,” or a waste of time. Source: The Guardian CNN refers to the metaverse as a “dystopian sci-fi idea.” Source: CNN Now, I understand why some people are so dismissive. For one, it’s still very much the early days for the metaverse. Just like the way folks were skeptical of the early internet, it’s hard to see how the metaverse will reshape every aspect of our lives. Plus, the only people really using the metaverse right now are children. But more than half of all American children are already playing on the metaverse! And children are often the first to embrace revolutionary technologies. We saw this play out with video games and social media. Now, the same thing is happening with the metaverse. Giant tech companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) are at the forefront of this technological revolution. Facebook is reinventing its entire business around the metaverse. Earlier this year, Facebook changed its name to Meta. And it plans to spend $10 billion and hire 10,000 people to build out the infrastructure of the metaverse. And Facebook is far from alone. Microsoft has had its eyes set on the metaverse for years. In 2014, it acquired the virtual sandbox game Minecraft for $2.5 billion. Microsoft is also actively building out the “enterprise metaverse.” In a nutshell, it aims to integrate the metaverse with the business world. Imagine a business that is headquartered in New York with a warehouse in Tokyo. It’s impossible for a worker to visit both locations in one business day. Microsoft wants to change that through the metaverse. In short, it will digitally map both places. Then workers could virtually “visit” both locations, no matter where they are in the physical world. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has also made the metaverse a top priority. The artificial intelligence pioneer recently launched its Omniverse platform that will allow engineers to develop 3D worlds for the metaverse. A couple months ago, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said that “the economy in the metaverse, the economy of Omniverse, will be larger than the economy in the physical world.” In other words, the metaverse is going to be worth tens of trillions of dollars. We’re looking at the next evolution of the internet—an internet that you can live in. The metaverse will be a space where everyone can socialize, work, play, and create. At this point, you must ask yourself, “Who’s more likely to be correct about the metaverse?” Will it be the naysayers doubting this new technology? Or the companies and entrepreneurs who are taking risks, investing their own money, and reshaping their entire business models to accommodate it? My money, as always, is on the visionaries. The Great Disruptors: 3 Breakthrough Stocks Set to Double Your Money" Get our latest report where we reveal our three favorite stocks that will hand you 100% gains as they disrupt whole industries. Get your free copy here. Article By Justin Spittler, Mauldin Economics Updated on Jan 5, 2022, 1:54 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 5th, 2022

COVID Is Dead. Energy Is The New Crisis

COVID Is Dead. Energy Is The New Crisis Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com, “Trying to fire-up the induction hob by rubbing two sticks together proved a waste of time..” Markets are welcoming victory versus COVID, but the next crisis is upon us: Energy instability. The consequences could be dramatic.. Back to the grindstone with a vengeance today – holidays are over and the Christmas decorations are back in their boxes. Time to get serious about 2022. Time to buy or time to sell? I am unconvinced many market participants understand just how much the ground has shifted over the last quarter – particularly in relation to Energy pricing. The first few months of 2022 are going to be about the market learning what the new landscape looks like, and how it adapts to a new and changing economic reality. This new year is going to be fundamentally different and more challenging in terms of how to invest “smart” in a new and utterly changed financial market environment. On the plus side, the outlook for 2022 has rosy overtones: Increasingly it looks like the back of Coronavirus has been broken. Infections of the new Omicron might be running out of control around the globe, but new variant hospitalisations and deaths are way down. The crisis is now coloured by issues such as the number of workers off sick – or more likely isolating at home with positive test results and minor symptoms. Official UK vaccine numbers (rather than dubious source material from the University of Facebook) show booster shots are 88% effective against Omicron, and the hospitalisation risk of the new variant is 1/3rd of the previous Delta. Hallelujah! Ding-Dong! Yippee… The market bulls are predicting a massive economic boost from the global economy reopening. We’ll see that confirmed by a host of new supply chain blockages, rising job vacancy numbers, short-term pressure on wages and increasing consumer confidence as the pandemic scales down from end-of-the-world contagion to a bad flu. That is the way viruses evolve and mutate – we learn to co-exist. Even if interest rates start to rise as central banks address the “transitory” inflation effects caused by supply chain bottlenecks, and scale back asset buying programmes, the market bulls believe normalised interest rates will not prove an insurmountable barrier to continued market upside on the back of 2 years of covid-repressed demand. (Central Banks are hoping a post-pandemic boom will prove their stay-out-of-jail card..) But, but and but again… Things are seldom so simple. Contain your enthusiasm. The big issue will be Energy – a factor I’ve commented upon many times in the Porridge. This new energy crisis has been a long-time brewing – unnoticed by the markets, and hidden under a bushel of ESG wokery, underinvestment, and neglect of energy security by governments. (The UK government’s blithe assumptions future energy security could be safely covered by the markets now look bumptiously foolish.) Energy prices will remain volatile on the back of increasing shortage – and the effects of a Gas Shock (in particular) will rock markets. Fixing energy security is a long-term issue, and will be made more complex and expensive by green politics. Energy matters. It is one of the 3 core ingredients of economic growth. To make economies work you need a willing workforce to make and buy stuff, access to capital to build the economy, and energy to transform raw materials into finished goods. Long-term inflation and economic destabilisation will occur when any of these become prohibitively expensive. If you want to know how an energy crisis impacts markets, go do a Wiki search on the 1973 Oil Shock. When I was clearing out my parents house last year I found petrol rationing coupons from 50 years ago hidden at the back of a drawer. Markets are serious underestimating just how painful and economically destructive sustained energy price and supply volatility could be. Thus far we’ve had an incredibly mild European winter – simply delaying the impact. We’re all going to feel it in Q1 when the power bills tumble through the letterbox. The short-term outlook the market is taking to the bigger Energy crisis was illustrated y’day in the price action on Tesla. The stock rocketed 13.5% higher – up $144 bln in market cap – on the back of Tesla’s success in overcoming the supply chain issues that have so blighted the rest of the autosector. It delivered a record 308,600 electric cars in Q4, confirming is got the manufacturing ability to deliver. It nearly doubled 2021 production (to 936k cars) from 510k in 2020! Respect…. But…. Increasing production is retrospective news. Surely, Tesla’s already massively bloated market valuation included the expectation Musk was going to deliver his promised 1 million cars? Musk promises much – and gradually, very gradually, he is now delivering cars. They are, apparently, good cars and I won’t dwell on stories about people driving them over cliffs, or blowing them up because of repair costs. (Finland: where the owner unsurprisingly found his battery didn’t last long in sub-zero conditions, and when faced with a $15k bill for a new battery pack, simply dynamited the car instead)! Tesla is now a good auto manufacturer with a very valuable franchise value garnered through its lead in the EV sector. It now faces growing competition in the EV space, which it will counter from its first mover status. It promises, and promises and promises, autonomous driving – just like everyone else. While Musk seems impervious to the delivery delays on his self-driving car, what happens as the price of lithium batteries becomes unsustainable, and folk start to realise the charging costs of an EV have risen by a factor of 4? Or when someone launches a non-lithium battery? Energy costs will impact across the economy. Energy inflation will impact consumer spending – which probably explains the briefness of Apple’s flirtation with a $3 trillion valuation. How many bright shiny things can we afford to buy when we can’t heat the house? Never forget the old story about 70% of American workers being one pay-check from penury – what happens when their pay-checks stretch half-as-far. There are, of course, a host of other energy-inflation consequences I haven’t mentioned this morning – particularly what happens in high-yield bond markets when higher-energy bills come due this quarter.. just saying, but Slaughter on Junk Avenue is a theme I expect to write about soon. The knock-on effects and consequences of higher energy prices are only dimly understood by markets… *  *  * An aside – Crimes against women. Through the holiday I followed the saga of the Maxwell trial. After 500 days of speculation and solitary she was found guilty. The papers are full of tributes to the bravery of the women who testified and are now able to bury the hurt and damage done to them. I couldn’t help but wonder at the media circus around it. Sexual abuse doesn’t stop at Epstein. It happens across the globe. There are multiple cases of Sexual Grooming, Pimping, and Rape being perpetrated by gangs of Asian men on vulnerable girls in UK cities. We’ve known about it for decades, but the police still don’t record the ethnicity of perpetrators (for fear of upsetting minorities). There have been few successful prosecutions. The lives of literally thousands of young girls are being blighted in perpetuity – but you ain’t seeing any of them receiving a penny and definitely not multi-million dollar payoffs, or supported by the press to pursue their abusers. There is something distinctly unsavoury about the whole Maxwell trial. One law for the rich and wealthy, versus none for the poor? Something has to change. Tyler Durden Wed, 01/05/2022 - 02:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 5th, 2022

Here Is Why Bargain Hunters Would Love Fast-paced Mover Boise Cascade (BCC)

Boise Cascade (BCC) could be a great choice for investors looking to buy stocks that have gained strong momentum recently but are still trading at reasonable prices. It is one of the several stocks that made it through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. Momentum investing is essentially the opposite of the tried-and-tested Wall Street adage -- "buy low and sell high." Investors following this investing style typically avoid betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. They believe instead that one could make far more money in lesser time by "buying high and selling higher."Everyone likes betting on fast-moving trending stocks, but it isn't easy to determine the right entry point. These stocks often lose momentum when their future growth potential fails to justify their swelled-up valuation. In that phase, investors find themselves invested in shares that have limited to no upside or even a downside. So, betting on a stock just by looking at the traditional momentum parameters could be risky at times.It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.Boise Cascade (BCC) is one of the several great candidates that made it through the screen. While there are numerous reasons why this stock is a great choice, here are the most vital ones:A dash of recent price momentum reflects growing interest of investors in a stock. With a four-week price change of 6.1%, the stock of this engineered wood products and plywood company is certainly well-positioned in this regard.While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. BCC meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 25.6% over the past 12 weeks.Moreover, the momentum for BCC is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.82. This indicates that the stock moves 82% higher than the market in either direction.Given this price performance, it is no surprise that BCC has a Momentum Score of B, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped BCC earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, BCC is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. BCC is currently trading at 0.37 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 37 cents for each dollar of sales.So, BCC appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.In addition to BCC, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today. Zacks’ Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence This world-changing technology is projected to generate $100s of billions by 2025. From self-driving cars to consumer data analysis, people are relying on machines more than we ever have before. Now is the time to capitalize on the 4th Industrial Revolution. Zacks’ urgent special report reveals 6 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 6 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 4th, 2022

The Coming Retirement Crisis Will Affect Everyone

The Coming Retirement Crisis Will Affect Everyone Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog, We are on the cusp of a retirement crisis that will affect everyone. Far too many promises have been made and the demographics we face do not bode well for a bright future. The answer that some people tout is we should have more children or open the borders. This is based on the idea we need more workers and ignores many other factors feeding into this issue. There is simply no way "more children" or workers can ever pay enough into the system to fulfill the promises that have been made.  The competition for programs from the government to support the needs of different generations is about to explode as young and old Americans reach out for more help. Much of our problems stem from a slew of bad policies either driven by stupidity, corruption, or an unwillingness to accept the reality you can postpone a reckoning for only so long. Investors and the public at large suffer from a "recency bias of hope" that tends to blind them from unpleasant long-term realities. The coming together of surging investment risk, an interrupted business cycle, and demographics are coming together to form the perfect storm. To clarify, much of the wealth in America is held in the hands of the baby boomers that have just or are about to retire, and over the years, many have moved into risky investment in search of yield. It has been years since we have had a major recession so sooner or later, it is logical one will arrive. Last, but not least, we are now seeing demographics play a larger role in the economy as boomers downsize (sell assets) and cut spending. While we look upon a world of wealth, we also see a world of debt. Unfortunately, over the last few decades growing inequality has placed much of the wealth in the hands of a few and distributed the debt in places where it will come back to bite us. Below are a few ugly indicators highlighting some frightening imbalances. Facts Indicating Problems Ahead Demographics show older consumers tend to downsize (sell assets) while spending less The boom-bust business cycle has been largely interrupted by surging government spending Stock buybacks continue to set new records and drive stock markets higher   The top one-percenters own more than 90% of America's wealth. Specifically, the 1% collectively own $43.27 trillion, while the bottom 90% earn $40.28 trillion combined. Moody’s estimate of Illinois’ retirement debts, made up of pension and retiree health shortfalls at the state and local level, hits $530 billion in 2020 The example of the pension and retiree health shortfalls in Illinois is well documented. Sadly, many other states and local governments have the same problem. This is despite a massive multi-year stock market rally and huge tax hikes that went to pension funds. It is difficult to imagine how many of these pension plans can avoid default. This is already baked into the cake. The financial giants aided by media have created the myth that everyone is making money when they invest in a retirement plan. Financial companies often forget to tell investors that when they invest in a 401 plan, the risk falls directly onto the individual owning the plan. Adding injury to insult, looking deeper into these schemes you will find outlandishly high fees buried under a slew of different names. Often the magic of compounded returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounded cost. A report by Robert Hiltonsmith claims these are a retirement savings drain. Hiltonsmith revealed a slew of pay-to-play and hidden kickbacks dwelling deep in the details of long difficult and boring documents. These tricks used to drain wealth from a customer's account helps to explain how financial companies pay for all those commercials and slick pamphlets constantly being thrown before us.  A big problem looms for those Americans that continue to believe disaster is something that hits other people but not them. Sadly, whether you have invested in a pension plan or a 401 account, prior economic crises show there is no guaranty that you will ever see your money again or if you do, that it will have retained its buying power. The risk is not only in stocks, but also lurks in bonds. Investors in bonds face a huge risk of default if they buy junk bonds and a good possibility of getting crushed if interest rates rise. This Did Not Work For Japan And Is Not Working For America Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic renaissance suddenly spring forth as the result of even lower interest rates. In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelop the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often have negative unintended consequences. People often discount how lucky Japan has been following its economic bubble burst in 1992 to be located next to China. Because of China's years of booming growth, Japan was able to mitigate much of the pain it was forced to endure. The ramifications of a retirement crisis will affect everyone. When older people lose their savings or watch their wealth fall they have little time to earn more. They cut back or need help to survive. When these people sell their assets it could cause deflation but that is not a certainty. My feeling is inflation is strong enough it will only slow its rate as money flows to tangible assets and away from paper and promises. Regardless of how you view this, it is not a recipe for strong growth.  Tyler Durden Mon, 01/03/2022 - 08:44.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 3rd, 2022

4 Promising China Stocks to Buy for 2022

JD.com (JD), PetroChina (PTR), ZTO Express (ZTO) & Dingdong Cayman (DDL) are the four best China companies to invest in next year. While 2020 was a stellar year for the China economy, this year hasn’t been as encouraging. After all, China had to deal with the sudden outbreak of the Omicron variant and an unwarranted crackdown on private organizations.Unfortunately, these problems are broad-based and long-lasting. Thus, the downside risk on China’s 2022 economic outlook has increased significantly. In fact, the World Bank recently trimmed China’s GDP growth in 2022 from 5.4% to 5.1%, the second slowest pace of economic expansion for China since 1990, citing a CNN article.A renewed outbreak of the Omicron variant raised concerns about a potential shutdown in the near future, thereby disrupting economic growth. The China government’s sweeping regulatory crackdown on various private tech, education, and entertainment companies has impacted its economy. Property firms, in particular, had to bear the burden of regulations and now most of the players in the real estate market are on the brink of a collapse.No doubt, China stocks didn’t fare well this year. The MSCI China index has tanked nearly 20% so far this year, whereas stocks across the globe gained traction. To top it, many China stocks face the threat of getting delisted from international bourses. Lest we forget, China’s Didi Global recently said that it will delist from U.S. exchanges and get listed in Hong Kong, aggravating the delisting worries.But, despite all odds, things may look good for the China economy in the near future as Beijing agreed to reconsider its economic policy. While the China government pledged to bring stability in economic growth, the People’s Bank of China recently trimmed interest rates to boost consumer spending and investment. The central bank also reduced the reserve requirement ratio for most banks to increase business and individual loans.While these initiatives are expected to boost economic growth in 2022, China will put an effort to rebalance its economy across several areas for certain. Similarly, the stock market is expected to bounce back from a major correction. This calls for placing bets on some noteworthy China stocks for next year. Here’re the players –JD.com, Inc. JD is primarily an e-commerce company in the People’s Republic of China. JD.com provides a wide range of products through its website, including mobile handsets, home appliances, accessories, clothes, personal care items, and e-books, to name a few.Despite stringent government regulations impacting the broader Internet companies in China, JD.com recently posted commendable third-quarter earnings results. In reality, the earnings results were boosted by an expansion in its supermarket and other retail groups.JD.com, at present, has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has moved up 6.3% over the past 60 days. JD.com’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 31.3%. In fact, for the next five-year period, its projected earnings growth rate is 26.9%.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.PetroChina Company Limited PTR provides a wide range of petroleum-related products and services in China. In fact, it is the largest integrated oil company in Mainland China. Being an integrated oil firm, PetroChina is well-poised to capitalize on the growing demand for natural gas. At the same time, PetroChina’s upstream segment is likely to benefit in the near term from a steady rise in oil prices.PetroChina currently has a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has moved up 5.9% over the past 60 days. PetroChina’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 4.1%. For the next five years, its projected earnings growth rate is 50.8%.  ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ZTO provides various logistic services, including express delivery in the People’s Republic of China. ZTO Express is headquartered in Shanghai and mostly delivers parcels weighing below 50 kilograms. With the rapid growth in e-commerce business, ZTO Express’ parcel volume has increased in recent times. Additionally, ZTO Express’ freight forwarding services are contributing toward its revenue growth.ZTO Express, at present, has a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has moved up 10.1% over the past 60 days. ZTO Express’ expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 33.3%. In reality, for the next five-year period, its projected earnings growth rate is 18.2%.Dingdong (Cayman) Limited DDL is principally an e-commerce company operating in China. Dingdong (Cayman) provides meat, seafood, and other necessary daily items. Dingdong (Cayman) primarily operates its online retail business through Dingdong Fresh. Thanks to the companies’ advanced supply-chain capabilities, Dingdong is one of the fastest-growing companies in the retail space in China.Dingdong (Cayman) currently has a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has moved up 41.6% over the past 60 days. Dingdong (Cayman)’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 50.7%. For the next five-year period, its projected earnings growth rate is 46%. Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report PetroChina Company Limited (PTR): Free Stock Analysis Report JD.com, Inc. (JD): Free Stock Analysis Report ZTO Express Cayman Inc. (ZTO): Free Stock Analysis Report Dingdong Cayman Limited Sponsored ADR (DDL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 28th, 2021

Forget International Paper (IP), Buy These 3 Packaging Stocks for 2022

With International Paper (IP) grappling with supply-chain issues, inflated costs and unplanned mill outage, it is wise to avoid this stock and invest in packaging stocks BERY, GEF and VRTV instead. Year 2021 will end on a sour note for International Paper IP. Investors earlier cheered its move to spin-off its Printing Papers segment, which will help the company capitalize on the growing demand for corrugated packaging. However, IP’s share price soon plunged on the weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2021 results and downbeat fourth-quarter guidance. This mainly resulted from supply-chain issues and cost pressures. International Paper’s woes were not over yet, as a structural failure at its Prattville paper mill led to an unplanned outage. On Dec 1, the company hiked its cost expectations again, and stated that inflated costs and the impact of the Prattville paper mill outage would likely have a $95-$105 million drag on fourth-quarter earnings. This dealt another blow to its share price.International Paper’s overall run in 2021 so far is not something worth writing about. Its shares have declined 7.8% so far this year against its industry’s growth of 2.5% and S&P 500’s rally of 26.1%. Earnings estimates for 2021 and 2022 have decreased by 12% and 16%, respectively, over the past 60 days. This indicates bearish sentiments for this stock, as six estimates moved downward versus none upward. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research In such a scenario, it is prudent for near-term investors to avoid this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock and instead focus on three packaging stocks — Berry Global Group BERY, Greif, Inc. GEF and Veritiv Corporation VRTV. These companies currently flaunt a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and are expected to deliver solid growth in 2022.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Before discussing these stocks, let’s have a detailed look at what made International Paper fall out of favor with investors this year.Higher-Than-Expected Costs in Q3: On the third-quarter conference call, management highlighted that input costs in the third quarter rose by 46 cents per share, more than double it had anticipated. Fiber and energy costs accounted for about 80% of this increase. Transportation costs remained elevated for both inbound materials and outbound shipments. Additionally, owing to labor market constraints, the company had to increase overtime and hire additional employees, leading to a spike in labor costs, particularly at its converting facilities.Supply-Chain Issues Impact Volumes: The company stated that the widespread supply-chain constraints limited its ability to capture the full opportunity from the strong level of demand across all channels, including boxes, sheets and containerboard.Tepid Guidance for Q4: On the third-quarter conference call, the company said that in the Industrial Packaging segment, maintenance outage expenses would increase by $3 million in the fourth quarter and input costs would increase by $50 million, mostly on higher costs for fiber and energy. In Global Cellulose Fibers, volume will likely be lower by $5 million primarily due to persistent port congestion. Maintenance outage expenses are expected to increase by $37 million and input costs are anticipated to increase by $15 million on higher wood and energy costs.Prattville Outage to Lead to Lost Production: On Nov 6, the company announced that the Prattville paper mill in Alabama had to be shut down due to a failure of one of the mill’s stock tanks. The mill produces 1.1 million tons per year of linerboard. Operations have since resumed for Paper Machine Number 2. However, Paper Machine Number 1 along with the balance of the mill is expected to be fully operational early next year, with no clear timeline provided. International Paper did not quantify the anticipated production loss.Hikes Cost Guidance: On Dec 1, during a presentation at the Citi 2021 Basic Materials Virtual Conference, International Paper’s management stated that the mill outage would likely impact fourth-quarter earnings by $60-$70 million. The company anticipates input costs to be $35 million higher than its earlier mentioned figure due to higher prices for wood fiber and energy.Though the company plans to file insurance claims, it is unclear how much it may be able to recover. Also, since Paper Machine Number 1 is not likely to restart until early 2022, investors anticipate some impacts in the first quarter of 2022. Considering that the company has struggled in recent quarters due to insufficient containerboard inventory, this development could exacerbate the problem. It is perceived that International Paper will not be able to capitalize on the current strong demand, given the Prattville outage, existing supply-chain issues and labor shortage.3 Solid Packaging Stocks Set for a Solid 2022Greif: The company’s Global Industrial Packaging segment has been gaining from strong growth in Intermediate Bulk Container and large plastic drum in the past few quarters, backed by strategic growth investments in the United States and EMEA, and ongoing recovery in the industrial end markets. The Paper Packaging segment has been benefiting from strong volumes in converting operations and higher selling prices. Strong demand, focus on operational execution, and price increases to combat cost inflation will likely boost the fiscal 2022 results. Greif has reached a lower interest rate tier in its credit facility as a result of substantial debt repayments, which, in turn, will bolster its earnings in the forthcoming quarters. The Caraustar acquisition, ongoing investment in business and restructuring activities will also aid growth. The stock has gained 22.1% so far this year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Greif’s fiscal 2022 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 11.4%. The consensus mark has moved up 6% over the past 60 days. The company has a long-term estimated earnings growth rate of 10%. The leading world producer of industrial packaging products and services has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.8%, on average.Veritiv: The third quarter of 2021 marked the company’s tenth consecutive quarter of a year-over-year improvement in its Packaging segment’s adjusted EBITDA margin performance. Also, it was instrumental in driving the overall record earnings and adjusted EBITDA margin performance in the company history. Strong demand and disciplined pass-through of supplier-driven inflationary price increases continue to lead to sales growth across most of its segments. Expected benefits of the 2020 Restructuring Plan as well as commercial and supply-chain productivity are expected to boost earnings. The company’s net leverage ratio is a record-low at 1.5X, which is commendable. The company’s shares have surged 467% so far this year. Its well-diversified packaging business, focus on acquisitions in high-growth and high-margin sectors, and investment in technology and e-commerce are expected to drive long-term growth.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Veritiv’s fiscal 2022 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 21%. The consensus mark has moved up 27% over the past 60 days. Veritiv is a business-to-business provider of value-added packaging products and services as well as facility solutions, print, and publishing products and services. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1,707%, on average.Berry Global: Demand across businesses, e-commerce, health, food safety and wellness is expected to be strong for the company in the quarters ahead. The Consumer Packaging — North America segment will likely benefit from strength in its consumer businesses across foodservice and beverage end markets. The Health, Hygiene & Specialties segment is likely to benefit from strength in the healthcare end market, recovery in the construction end market. Improvement in demand across food & beverage and foodservice end markets will drive the Consumer Packaging – International segment. The Engineered Materials segment is likely to gain from growth in demand for its protective films and can liner product lines along with strength in e-commerce. Investments in the latest equipment technologies, advantaged film development and design for circularity are likely to enhance its competency in the long run. The stock has gained 25% so far this year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Berry Global’s fiscal 2022 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 2.8%. The consensus mark has moved up 18% over the past 60 days. The company manufactures and supplies non-woven, flexible, and rigid products in consumer and industrial end markets. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.5%, on average. Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report International Paper Company (IP): Free Stock Analysis Report Greif, Inc. (GEF): Free Stock Analysis Report Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY): Free Stock Analysis Report Veritiv Corporation (VRTV): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 24th, 2021

5 Russell 2000 Stocks That Crushed the Index in 2021

Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Sanderson Farms (SAFM), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Trex (TREX) and Enova (ENVA) are the top Russell 2000 stocks that outperformed the index in 2021. Following the economic lows in 2020, investors have witnessed a gradual improvement in the financial markets in 2021 with accelerated COVID-19 vaccination drives, increased merger & acquisition activities across various industry verticals and favorable earnings growth.The pandemic has further witnessed a resurgence of small-cap stocks as startups and small corporations have proved their mettle by driving innovation and generating more revenues with new opportunities as the economy recovers.Small-Cap Stocks Lead the WayLarge-cap stocks tend to be less volatile, even during rough market conditions. However, given the current uncertainties stemming from the pandemic, small-cap stocks appear to be the preferred choice as they offer huge growth potential and higher returns in the long run.Moreover, small companies are known to have spurred employment rates in the private sector amid the pandemic-induced market turbulence. With large entities having major international exposure, small and mid-cap companies seem to be relatively better placed than their larger peers to tap local talents and capitalize on regional supply chain mechanism.About Russell 2000 IndexThe Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It accounts for 10% of the market capitalization of the Russell 3000. A broader section of the core U.S. companies forms an integral part of this index. It is one of the most widely used benchmarks for small-cap equities, making it a barometer for the economy.Driven by its resilience, the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks surged 140% as of Nov 4, 2021, since it hit rock-bottom levels in March 2020. In 2020, the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks gained 70.9% compared with 44.5% for the large-cap S&P 500 Index.The Russell 2000 Index reflects the bullish sentiments of the market and has moved up 14.2% on a year-to-date basis. It closed at 2,221.90 on Dec 22. Consequently, it would be prudent to park your hard-earned money on these small-cap stocks for lucrative returns.Top 5 PerformersWe have zeroed in on five such stocks that performed better than the index and are among the top gainers in 2021. These stocks are well poised to gain further in the near term on the back of their higher return potential.Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR: Headquartered in Dallas, TX, Builders FirstSource is the largest supplier of building materials, manufactured components and construction services. The company operates in more than 550 locations in 39 states all over the United States. Following the merger with BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. on Jan 1, 2021, Builders FirstSource reorganized its organizational structure.Acquisitions form an important part of Builders FirstSource growth strategy to supplement its organic growth. Before the BMC merger, the company integrated 43 acquisitions since 1998. With accretive investments in digital solutions, BLDR is observing higher demand driven by solid momentum of the housing industry. Also, it is expected to provide greater resources to invest in growth, innovation and non-stop value creation for all its shareholders.Builders FirstSource sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a VGM Score of A. BLDR delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 71.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 50.2% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has catapulted 98.7% compared with 43.4% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchYou can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Sanderson Farms, Inc. SAFM: Headquartered in Laurel, MS, Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company that produces, processes, markets and distributes fresh and frozen chicken products. The company operates 11 hatcheries, nine feed mills and 12 processing plants, and one prepared chicken plant.With sales of more than $3.5 billion, it is currently the third-largest poultry producer in the United States, processing more than 4.8 billion pounds of meat in fiscal 2020. Sanderson Farms has been strengthening its product portfolio by adding to its vast product pipeline. It is working toward boosting its assortments to meet consumers’ altering tastes and dining preferences. Additionally, it is investing toward augmenting its overall capacity.Sanderson Farms also flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 and has a VGM Score of A. SAFM delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 496.3%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.8% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has rallied 41.8% compared with 10.1% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLattice Semiconductor Corporation LSCC: Headquartered in Hillsboro, OR, Lattice is a manufacturer of high-performance programmable logic devices. The company sells its products globally in three end market groups — Communications and Computing, Industrial and Automotive, and Consumer.Lattice shares long-standing strategic relationships with major semiconductor foundries for procuring finished silicon wafers. This enables LSCC to focus its internal resources on product and market development, in turn, eliminating the fixed cost of operating semiconductor manufacturing facilities. The company solves customer problems across the network, from the Edge to the Cloud, across computing, communications, automotive, industrial and consumer markets.Lattice carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). LSCC delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 14.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 7.1% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has returned 63.1% compared with 41.4% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTrex Company, Inc. TREX: Based in Winchester, VA, Trex is a leading manufacturer of wood-alternative composite decking, railing and other outdoor items. Stocked in more than 6,700 retail locations worldwide, Trex outdoor living products deliver a plethora of style options with fewer maintenance requirements than wood. It currently operates in two reportable segments — Trex Residential Products (Trex Residential) and Trex Commercial Products (Trex Commercial).The expanded addressable market reflects the strength of its brand and product portfolio. Solid sales growth and disciplined SG&A spending act as major tailwinds. With strong demand trends, Trex anticipates double-digit revenue gains in 2022 with higher opportunities related to energy efficiency, modernization and automation. It also prioritizes cost reduction projects and new product development while driving innovation in the global market.  Trex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.6% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has gained 57% compared with 31.5% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEnova International, Inc. ENVA: Based in Chicago, IL, Enova is a leading financial technology company focused on providing online financial services. As of Dec 31, 2020, the company has completed more than 53.2 million customer transactions and collected nearly 49 terabytes of consumer behavior data, enabling it to better analyze its specific customer base. Some of its financing products and services are installment loans, income share agreements, CSO programs and receivables purchase agreements.Enova currently provides its services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Brazil. It caters to small businesses and capitalizes on its proprietary technology, analytics and customer service capabilities to underwrite and fund loans. Enova’s proprietary underwriting systems leverage advanced risk analytics, including machine learning and artificial intelligence. ENVA has provided more than 7 million customers with more than $40 billion in loans to enhance their financial health.Enova has a Zacks Rank #3. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 68.6%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.2% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has soared 61.5% compared with 34.9% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Free Stock Analysis Report Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC): Free Stock Analysis Report Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM): Free Stock Analysis Report Trex Company, Inc. (TREX): Free Stock Analysis Report Enova International, Inc. (ENVA): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 23rd, 2021

The Springsteen Sale

  30x?!!!! It’s the twilight of the gods. Pete Townshend said rock and roll would never die, but one thing’s for sure, its performers will. No one lives forever, and after the deaths of David Bowie and Glenn Frey, we knew it could come, not from bad behavior, not drugs and alcohol, but the vagaries… Read More The post The Springsteen Sale appeared first on The Big Picture.   30x?!!!! It’s the twilight of the gods. Pete Townshend said rock and roll would never die, but one thing’s for sure, its performers will. No one lives forever, and after the deaths of David Bowie and Glenn Frey, we knew it could come, not from bad behavior, not drugs and alcohol, but the vagaries of life, drawing the wrong genetic number, getting cancer or rheumatoid arthritis. So what about the music? Even though modern rock is a footnote in the overall sphere of new music, classic rock still lives, everywhere, from radio to jukeboxes to streaming services to commercials to that speaker at the drive-in…will this continue? What you have to know is the superstars who sold their rights for a lump sum ultimately regretted it. The two biggest examples being Elvis Presley and Led Zeppelin. Colonel Parker wanted his cash, and he thought the value of Elvis’s catalog had peaked. Peter Grant didn’t think Led Zeppelin was for the long term, he sold out the rights, thank god the internet came along and gave the band the opportunity to renegotiate. As for those people who’ve sold and are happy…scratch the surface, it’s more complicated than that. They own it, they can do what they want with it. And on one hand, this is good, it might keep the music alive, on the other the use might not align with your identity/personality/career strategy. But if you’re dead? The truth is most acts have not survived. For every Doors, there’s a Jefferson Airplane. Not everything from the past is worth a fortune. As for selling your royalties, Josh Gruss of Round Hill Music told me he expects to make the money back in seven years. Some acts are just that broke, they need the cash, but unless you’re 85, why would you do that? Don’t forget musicians are historically terrible business people. But you know the maxim, everything is for sale, and if the price is high enough… So they’re saying between $500 and $600 million. That’s a lot of cash, but the devil is in the details. Sell, and you pay 20% in taxes, whereas your yearly royalties are taxed at regular rates, as much as 37%. So… It’s a calculation. Let’s do the math. Bruce Springsteen is 72 years old. Is he gonna live another thirty years? Highly doubtful. There are some who live to 102, but very few. So this is the deal of a lifetime, he’s got to take the cash. And let’s not forget, when he and his wife die his heirs will have to pay significant inheritance tax, meaning if Bruce didn’t sell now, his children almost definitely would have to sell upon his death. So anybody who says Bruce shouldn’t have taken this deal runs on emotion, not fact. However, the big question is…what will Bruce Springsteen’s music be worth in the future? Yes, Bruce’s songs are iconic, but you can’t cover “Born to Run,” or “Born in the U.S.A.” Those are records, those are Bruce’s. This isn’t Bob Dylan, or even Paul Simon, with umpteen covers. However, covers are not the only way you can make money on a legacy catalog. Hell, Cadillac offered the Doors $10 million to use “Break on Through” decades ago, and the band turned it down! The price is only going up. And hedge funds don’t invest unless they foresee a HUGE return. They don’t want 5-10%, they’re looking for a huge multiple, just like Bruce. Now one thing we know, as long as there’s copyright law, at least in the U.S., you’re gonna get paid (Disney keeps lobbying to have nothing expire, most notably Mickey Mouse). This is the silver lining of streaming. And it seems every couple of years there’s a new opportunity to monetize. No one foresaw TikTok, and all these social media companies are now licensing music. So there’s runway, in the short to medium term, but the long term? Elvis’s merch sales are down. His fans are dying. Nobody is forever. Well, maybe Frank Sinatra and the Beatles. And who could have predicted the Doors would hang around this long. But will your band last, will your songs last? You don’t want to sell. These are your creations, these are your babies, you want to manage them, hold them closely. But now you’re confronted with death. No one lives forever. Like I said above, emotionally it might not make sense, but intellectually, financially, it certainly does. Now I bet some of the previous sellers are now kicking themselves, thinking they should have held on. It’s always an issue when to sell. We saw this with SFX, which is now Live Nation. At first, prices were extremely good, then they were stratospheric, but if you waited too long, the value went down. (And let’s not forget Sillerman sold SFX to Clear Channel, he got his money, and the music business has a history of consolidation, who is going to own your rights in the future? Certainly, someone you have no relationship with, never mind whether your interests align.) We have no frame of reference, no history, no classic rocker has been dead so long their audience is gone, so we can properly compute the value of their works. Classic rock could be forever, or when Generation X is gone, it could take a swift fall. Then again, classic rock is just not music, it represents an era of experimentation when the culture went hand in hand with the music when musicians moved the needle in everyday life when music was everything. That is not today, which is why today’s music has a shorter lifespan. Think of the paintings and sculptures of the Renaissance, they’re forever! Could that be Classic Rock? Just maybe, especially if there’s enough melody So it’s weird. Despite Springsteen’s quote today, the label has always been the enemy, it doesn’t pay accurate royalties, the faces keep changing, you can never trust your label. So on one hand you get your money upfront, on the other you lose control. Wasn’t classic rock all about control? And how much money do you need? Then again, you don’t want to just give it all to the government. The government essentially pays you to invest, to give some away, it’s one of the drivers of the economy. Then again, when you get really rich, how much can one person, one family purchase? So Springsteen’s kids will inherit a ton of cash, but they won’t own any of the music. And cash? You can spend it all in a day. Music rights have almost a guaranteed return, ergo the 30x above. But stocks, other investments? They can go down as well as up. And never forget, Steve Bing died essentially penniless, with under 100k. And he was not a dumb guy. So, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. When the prices get insane, it’s hard to say no. But once again, the valuations are by people who specialize in money, not music. It’s not feel, it’s math. There are a limited number of catalogs available. Is it key to have critical mass, or has Merck Mercuriadis driven the whole rights business right off a cliff? Remember when the internet came along, Napster? The labels had huge deals with legacy acts, they had to pay millions upfront for albums that couldn’t possibly make a return equal to what was laid out. Stuff happens in the future you can’t foresee. Like Black Friday or 2008. You could lose money on all your stock, but if you still had your music assets, royalties would be paid. On the surface, 30x appears out of control. Springsteen just can’t say no. On another, it’s the death of the dream. The money was always there, but it was never upfront. Hell, Bruce wanted to keep ticket prices low. Now the money’s right in your face and it affects credibility, it’s hard to create art with the dollar signs in sight. That’s a business proposition. And music is a business, but it survives on the efforts of artists. And the value of music grew to such heights because of classic rock. That’s why it’s classic! But when Bruce Springsteen and Neil Young sell out to the man, it breaks your heart. You can understand it, but still… The man was always the enemy. Corporations are the scourge of America. And now Sony owns the work of Bruce Springsteen, the poet laureate of the streets? That’s just sad. ~~~   Visit the archive: — Listen to the podcast: — @Lefsetz — Subscribe to the LefsetzLetter The post The Springsteen Sale appeared first on The Big Picture......»»

Category: blogSource: TheBigPictureDec 19th, 2021

Going To Cash Can Be As Costly As A Market Crash

Going To Cash Can Be As Costly As A Market Crash Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentaAdvice,.com, Going to all cash in your portfolio to avoid a crash can be just as costly as the crash itself. A recent CNBC article quoted a $200 billion money manager suggesting “every stock market investor should be ready to go to cash.” The comment was from Ashbel Williams, who retired from the Florida State Board of Administration. “You never want to be a forced seller of risk assets at reduced prices because of market turmoil that locks in permanent capital impairment. There always has to be liquidity when equity markets go down. The No. 1 way to protect capital is to follow investment policy and rebalance back into equities while at depressed prices.” Regular readers of our columns are already well aware we agree with Ashbel on raising cash to avoid drawdown risk. However, there is an essential distinction between “going to all cash” and “raising cash” to manage risk. The Psychology Trap The biggest battle for all investors is their own “psychology.” From “herding” to “anchoring” to “confirmation bias,” individuals exhibit the same set pattern of responses through the entire investing cycle. Such was a point we discussed recently in “Is Past Performance A Guarantee?” “During a bull market, people tend to forget about bear markets. As far as human recent memory is concerned, the market should keep going up since it has been going up recently. Investors therefore keep buying stocks, feeling good about their prospects. Investors thereby increase risk taking and may not think about diversification or portfolio management prudence. Then a bear market hits, and rather than be prepared for it with shock absorbers in their portfolios, investors instead suffer a massive drop in their net worths and may sell out of stocks when the market is low. Selling low is, of course, not a good long-term investing strategy.” – Morning Star When it comes to “going completely to cash” in portfolios, such action triggers numerous emotional behaviors that negatively impact portfolio outcomes. Over the past decade, I have met with numerous individuals who “went to cash” in 2008 before the crash. They felt confident in their actions at the time. However, that “confidence” gave way to “confirmation bias” after the market bottomed in 2009. Nevertheless, they remained convinced the “bear market” was not yet over and continued to seek out confirming information. As a consequence, they remained in cash. The Fear Of Being Wrong The cost of “sitting out” on a market advance is evident. As the market turned from “bearish” to “bullish,” many individuals remained in cash, worrying they had missed the opportunity to get in. Even when there were decent pullbacks, the “fear of being wrong” outweighed the necessity of getting capital invested. The problem with being completely in cash is that it becomes increasingly difficult to break those “psychological” barriers to getting capital invested as the market advances. The market has already run up too much. What if I buy in now and the market crashes? I’ve already missed so much, I will just wait for the next crash. The Cost Of Waiting While being entirely in cash certainly has psychological freedom, it also has negative financial consequences. The chart below shows the impact more clearly. We assume an individual invests $100,000 at the turn of the century. They ride the market down and back up to their original value in 2007. Then, having “learned their lesson,” they see the signs of an impending market crash and go to cash. While they avoided the 50% decline in 2008, remaining in “cash” has put them significantly behind their 6% annualized return needed to meet financial goals. This is certainly a more extreme example. However, there are many individuals who remain out of the markets today due to fear of suffering a “mean reverting” event. However, is there a better way? Reduce Cash Rather Than Liquidate You cannot, over the long term, effectively time the market. Being all in or out of the market will eventually put you on the wrong side of the “trade.”  However, you can manage risk and protect investment capital. When it comes to managing risk there are many sophisticated methods for doing so, and entire books have been written on the subject. But risk management doesn’t have to be overly complicated. Even a very basic moving average crossover can be a valuable tool over the long-term holding periods.  Will such a method ALWAYS be correct? Of course, not. However, will such a method keep you from losing significant amounts of capital? Absolutely. Let’s use our basic example from above. We will assume our investor understands market risk but is very slow at making transitions. In this example, we assume our investor: Puts 50% of his capital in 2000 and immediately gets swept into the “Dot.com” crash. Being concerned about the decline, they remain 50% invested until mid-2004. Finally investing the rest of their capital, they participate with the market before selling down by 50% in 2008. They don’t increase back to 100% equity exposure until late 2010. From 2010, they remain fully invested until reducing to 50% cash in 2017. They remain 50% cash until the end of 2020 before going back to full equity exposure. As shown, even though our hypothetical investor was late exiting and re-entering the market, they still substantially outperformed a “buy and hold” investor over the same time frame. Never Go 100% Into Cash Our inherent human biases make us extremely fallible creatures when investing. Inherently, we will all do precisely the opposite of what we should do. First, we will “buy high” as “greed” overtakes our base logic. Then, we will “sell low” as “panic” over mounting losses. But we can do better but understanding our essential behavioral traits and learning that we can manage the amount of risk that we take in our portfolio management strategies. Avoid the “herd mentality” of paying increasingly higher prices without sound reasoning. Do your own research and avoid “confirmation bias.”  Develop a sound long-term investment strategy that includes “risk management” protocals. Diversify your portfolio allocation model to include “safer assets.” Control your “greed” and resist the temptation to “get rich quick” in speculative investments. Resist getting caught up in “what could have been” or “anchoring” to a past value. Such leads to emotional mistakes.  Realize that price inflation does not last forever. The larger the deviation from the mean, the greater the eventual reversion will be. Invest accordingly.  Despite the inherent belief that we are long-term investors, we all consistently get swept up in the market’s short-term movements. Of course, with the media and Wall Street pushing the “you are missing it” mantra as the market rises; who can blame the average investor for “panic” buying market tops and selling out at market bottoms. It’s Never Easy The problem with going to all cash in a portfolio is that it becomes psychologically challenging to redeploy that cash in the future. To better navigate markets over time, choose a base level of exposure that you will never go below no matter how bad it gets in the market. (We utilize a base of 25% of total equity allocation targets.) The benefit of having a base level of exposure is that as the market begins to recover, it becomes psychologically easier to “buy into” an existing allocation that is beginning to recover. However, since invested capital got protected from the decline, that capital gets quickly reallocated to equity risk at depressed levels. While it may seem logical to go to cash to avoid “crashes,” the risk of mistiming the event can have the same negative impact on financial goals as the crash itself. Notably, managing risk is not the same as avoiding risk. We can’t invest capital without the acceptance of risk. However, we can take actions to minimize the impact of risk when things don’t work out as anticipated. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/17/2021 - 10:37.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 17th, 2021

A Guide To Professional Budget Management

Professional Budget Management from Beginning to End Effective budget management is necessary for your business to keep operating successfully year after year. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Budgeting ensures that your sales cover your costs and that resources are effectively utilized to meet strategic goals. Companies need funds for standard business operations […] Professional Budget Management from Beginning to End Effective budget management is necessary for your business to keep operating successfully year after year. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Budgeting ensures that your sales cover your costs and that resources are effectively utilized to meet strategic goals. Companies need funds for standard business operations such as incorporating a new business as well as for projects to improve products or services — all of which need to be budgeted for. Over 50% of projects run over budget, which significantly impacts their ability to deliver benefits for the organization. In this article, we’ll look at exactly what budget management is and why it’s so important. Plus, we’ll walk you through a six-step process to effectively manage your budget from beginning to end. What Is Budget Management? A budget is a financial plan created to help you achieve your organization's strategic and operational goals. Strategic goals are things like increasing your customer conversion rate or becoming an industry leader. Operational goals are related to routine tasks that are needed to keep the business running. One example would be implementing a new filing system that allows administrative employees to perform their jobs faster and more efficiently. Budget management is the effective planning, execution, and control of your budget. It's mainly done through a process of tracking and managing your income and expenses. After all, your budget is only useful if you actually stick to it. So, somebody needs to constantly manage the budget and make sure that the company is still on track to meet its goals. Budget management is different from financial management because of the time frame that it covers. A budget tends to only look out to a year into the future, at most. It focuses on immediate money issues. In contrast, financial management tends to take a more long-term approach and may look at the company's overall position in five or ten years. Why is effective budget management important? Managing a budget is a lot of work. So if you have to do it, you’d better have a good reason for doing so. The truth is, there are many benefits of creating and managing a budget. So it’s well worth the time you’ll invest. Let’s explore the various benefits of creating, executing, and controlling a budget that makes effective budget management so important. Benefits Of Creating A Budget Budget planning forces you to analyze what money you have (or expect to have in the future) and plan costs against it. You have to think ahead strategically for better investments. You’re less likely to be surprised by forgotten expenses. It prevents you from taking on projects that you don’t have the cash for. Employees become more cost-conscious and try to conserve resources. Avoid having to repair your credit score due to bad financial decisions. Benefits Of Executing A Budget Sharing the plan with the rest of your organization helps everybody to know where the focus is. It gets managers all on the same page. It lets everyone know what should be a priority and helps to keep the team on track. This leads to better planning and coordination of business activities. It also ensures short and long-term profitability. Profit margins increase from effective cost management. Benefits Of Controlling The Budget You can see early when overspending occurs. That way, you have more time to react. You’ll see when unexpected revenue comes in, so you can more quickly decide what to do with it. You can pinpoint any “cash leaks” or issues and work to reduce or resolve them. It allows the company to review its organizational plans (and change them when necessary) to maximize its financial resources. 6 Steps To Successfully Manage A Budget Now that you understand the importance of a well-managed budget, it’s time to learn the six key steps to building an effective budget management process. Determine The Scope Of Your Budget You can use a budget at nearly every level of your organization. So the first step needs to be figuring out what the scope of your budget is. What level of the organization are you budgeting at? This might be at a department level or budgeting for a specific item or product. You also need to figure out what period you’re budgeting for. Are you planning things out on a weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annual basis? You can be managing a budget related to the number of snacks in an office vending machine each month. Or you could be managing a budget for the entire marketing department for the year. Create Your Budget If you’re starting from scratch, then you’ll need to create a budget before you can begin managing it. If your company already has budgeting software, you can make use of that. Otherwise, you can find a template online to use. You’ll want to pull in all of the previous historical data that you’ve got about income and expenses (if you’ve got it). Include all of the revenue related to your budget as well as both fixed and variable costs. Fixed costs remain the same irrespective of how much volume you produce, e.g., factory lease. Variable costs fluctuate depending on production volume, e.g., labor costs. (Image Source) Be sure to adjust for any cyclical or seasonal changes that may affect your business. If you’re running a landscaping business, your budget is going to look a lot different in the summer than in the winter. Try to anticipate any new upcoming expenses or changes that might impact your budget. For example, a new hire or a new project will increase your costs. Projected growth will mean more revenue coming in. Don’t forget to account for any irregular costs like annual fees or licenses. Involve Other Decision-Makers Depending on your position within the company, you may need to get your budget reviewed and approved before you can start managing it. Even if you’re the only person who needs to approve it, it’s good to get feedback from other employees before finalizing your plans. They may be able to point out some unexpected expenses or other items that you’ve missed. As your budget influences your business planning for the coming year, it’s worth gathering a team of subject matter experts or other managers together to review your budget and discuss it. Getting the team more involved helps with any concerns they may have about how the budget may impact their department. Anybody who’ll be bound to the budget should get a chance to give their feedback before it’s finalized. People will quickly let you know if they feel like anything is missing or the numbers aren’t realistic. Once you receive feedback, you can adjust and revise your numbers to develop a final approved budget. After the budget is finalized, encourage buy-in from anyone who has to stick to it. For example, have the marketing department “own” the marketing budget. Execute Your Budget A budget doesn’t do any good if you just toss it in a drawer until the end of the year until it’s time to take it out and review how you’ve done. Budget monitoring needs to be done on an ongoing basis and needs to be communicated effectively to your team. You need to share and publish the budget where the team and cost owners can see it. That might mean printing it and putting it on a prominent notice board where people can refer to it at any time. You can also make an electronic copy available on an internal company website. Once your budget is out there, you also need a way to track costs against it. This is usually done using project management software in larger companies. However, smaller companies may be able to do it with just an Excel spreadsheet. Having a way to track costs will only work if there’s data coming in. You also need some way to get the information into your system. That could involve employees submitting an expense report each week. Or you may be able to provide them online access to log in and update their own expenses if your software allows for it. The closer to real-time that you’re able to track your expenses, the more effective the whole process will be. You don’t want a one-month lag between a significant spike in spending and when you’re able to identify it. Someone needs to be assigned as a budget manager to track and manage all of this. If you aren’t doing it yourself, then be sure that someone is responsible for managing the budget and keeping information up-to-date. The person managing your budget will be an invaluable resource for the company. They can raise the alert if costs exceed what’s been approved, help adjust the budget when necessary, and keep things on track. Review Your Budget Whoever is in charge of managing the budget should be providing reports or having meetings with the decision-makers in the company who are affected by the budgets on a regular basis. The frequency of these regular reviews will depend on the period of the budget. But generally, an annual budget will need to be broken down into monthly and quarterly forecasting. The person responsible for managing the budget will also be responsible for preparing reports that show actual numbers against forecasted numbers. That way, it’s easy for everyone involved to see which areas are performing well and where some adjustments might be needed. Besides regularly reviewing the budget, it’s essential to have certain controls in place that are performed continuously. These additional parts of the budget review process include: Reviewing and approving purchase orders Signing off on invoices Approving overtime requests against the budget Lastly, you need to have processes in place for what to do if actual numbers end up being far off what has been budgeted for. Repeat The Process A budget isn’t something that you just do once. It’s a constantly ongoing process of anticipating and forecasting the operations of your business. Before the period from your first budget is done, it’ll be time to review the data and create a new budget for the next period. Adjust your next budget based on actual numbers, ongoing market trends, current events, seasonality, and other changes. Additional Budget Management Tips The steps above will get you started on the right foot when managing your budget. Here are three further tips to have you manage your budget like a pro. Use Budgets As An Opportunity To Improve, Not To Punish It’s easy for a team member (or even a manager) to let costs get out of hand and exceed a budget without realizing it. Particularly if they’re new to managing a budget or if your company is only starting to get serious about budgeting. It’s important to understand why targets are getting missed and find a way to correct that next time instead of just casting blame. Set Realistic Budget Goals A budget is about where your company or department will realistically be at the end of a time period or specific project, not where you wish you would be. Setting overly-ambitious goals that people can’t realistically meet will only serve to demoralize your team. Put Your Plan Into Action Effective budget management isn’t a passive activity. You need to take an active role and use your budget to guide the decisions in your department or organization. For example, if you receive extra income above what your budget expected, you don’t want to let it sit. You need to decide how the extra money will be spent to further your organization's goals and update the budget. Effective Budget Management Is Essential To Financial Success In this article, we’ve looked at why good budget management is so important to the success of your business and staying profitable in the short and long term. You also learned six vital steps to creating and managing a budget and how to work with other colleagues in your organization to get feedback and keep financial information up to date. The ability to read financial statements is an important first step in understanding a company’s financial health. And it’s crucial for effective forecasting and accurate budget formation. Updated on Dec 8, 2021, 3:27 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 8th, 2021

84 great gifts for your girlfriend no matter her interests, from astrology jewelry to an REI co-op membership

We rounded up 84 thoughtful gifts to give your girlfriend, from keepsake jewelry under $100 to helpful tech and fitness accessories. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Gift your girlfriend a thoughtful, custom keepsake.Framebridge Giving your girlfriend a meaningful gift doesn't have to require hours of research. Below is a list of thoughtful gifts for your girlfriend, from accessories and tech to home decor. Still looking for gifts? Find more gift guides broken down by interest, budget, and occasion here. Giving gifts as a couple can be a lot of fun. You know your partner: What they love, what rituals they enjoy, what small daily annoyances you could possibly solve with a thoughtful gift. You also know how much they'll appreciate the gift when it comes from you.Odds are you want to give them something wonderful — whatever your price range is. All most of us need is a little direction and a few great options to pick from, so we put together a list of our favorite gift ideas for girlfriends of all personalities and interests to help guide you.Check out all 84 gifts for your girlfriend:This list includes a Sponsored Product that has been suggested by Vuori. It also meets our editorial criteria in terms of quality and value.*The best Apple Watch we've triedAppleApple Watch Series 7, available on Amazon and Apple, from $379If you're looking for a great gift and not concerned about staying in an under-$200 budget, we'd recommend the Apple Watch Series 7.Currently, we think it's the best Apple Watch. The Series 7 can charge up to 80% in 45 minutes, and it's the most advanced version with features such as blood oxygen saturation measuring and an electrocardiogram scanner to detect abnormalities in the heart's rhythm. Earrings made with her birthstoneMejuriAmethyst Flat Sphere Studs, available on Mejuri, $180If your girlfriend wears jewelry, birthstone earrings that she can keep forever are a thoughtful, personalized gift she'll wear often.  Delicious sweets from a famous NYC bakeryMilk BarMilk Bar Treats, from $22If your girlfriend has a sweet tooth, send her Milk Bar — the company delivers its iconic and decadent cakes, cookies, and truffles to her doorstep.A pass to get into a bunch of boutique fitness classesClasspassClassPass Gift Card, from $15Boutique fitness classes are expensive, which can make trying new workouts — either for variety or to figure out what we like — less appealing. ClassPass solves both issues. It's relatively affordable, and members can access a neverending catalog of great workouts with small class sizes. If your partner is getting back into fitness after over a year of at-home workouts, we'd highly recommend a gift card here for whenever they're ready to use it.Leggings fit for workouts and lounge sessionsVuoriVuori Daily Legging, from $50Vuori is known for its smooth, soft fabrics and flattering fits — and the Daily Legging is no exception. Combining the leisure and comfort of a jogger with the function and stretch of a legging, your girlfriend can wear these for both workouts and weekend lounging. *Sponsored by VuoriA disposable camera that doesn't take you out of the momentGamesgamer024 The gamer/YouTubeDisposable camera, $42.49Interested in preserving memories without taking yourself out of them? A good disposable camera or a film camera can take the pressure away from perfection so you and your girlfriend can focus on just savoring experiences together.The best electric toothbrushColgateElectric toothbrush, $39.99If your girlfriend is more interested in gifts she needs as well as wants, an electric toothbrush is a good option. We've tested our fair share of electric toothbrushes, and we think Colgate's Hum is the best value. It cleans thoroughly and offers advanced features and modern design for $70 — which is considerably more affordable than options with fancy features you may not use enough. A planned trip for the two of you to take togetherAirbnbAirbnb Gift Card, available at Airbnb, from $25If you want to gift an experience you and your girlfriend can enjoy together, grab a card, a gift card to Airbnb, and come up with a few location ideas to choose from. You can also book a hotel in your city on Booking.com or Expedia for a sweet staycation. *This gift can be saved and used at a later date.A versatile Exercise DressOutdoor VoicesThe Exercise Dress, available on Outdoor Voices, $100Given the popularity of the Exercise Dress, we wouldn't be surprised if this was on your girlfriend's wish list. The Exercise Dress is comfortable, versatile, and cute — which has made it a cult-favorite item. If she's a fan of dresses, outdoor voices, or clothes she can wear all day long, this may be a good option. Her favorite specialty food straight from the sourceGoldbelly/InstagramOrder her favorite specialty foods using Goldbelly, from $28Goldbelly makes it possible to satisfy your girlfriend's most specific and nostalgic cravings no matter where they live in the US — a cheesecake from Junior's, deep dish pizza from Lou Malnati, and more. Browse the iconic gifts section for inspiration. A streaming bundle that checks off all the boxesHulu/Disney+/ESPN+/Business InsiderHulu, Disney+ ESPN+ Bundle, available at Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu, from $13.99 per monthIf canceled sporting events or trips to Disney have you feeling down, you can gift Disney+, ESPN, and Hulu together to ensure the next few months include plenty of entertainment options. If your partner is not too fond of ads, this bundle can also be purchased with the ad-free version of Hulu.A small skincare tool that removes 99.5% of dirt, oil, and makeup residueAmazonForeo Luna Play Plus 2, available at Foreo, $59In the category of things your girlfriend may love but hasn't asked for yet: Foreo facial brushes. Our team swears by these gentle yet effective cleansing devices. They have hygienic silicone bristles and come in five different models for different skin types. The Luna is small enough to bring on the go, so your partner can maintain their skincare routine while traveling. A thoughtful book she'll loveAmazon"Tiny Beautiful Things: Advice on Love and Life from Dear Sugar" by Cheryl Strayed, available on Amazon, $12.42Pick up one of your all-time favorite books that you think she'd like, or browse some of the books we love to gift. This collection of Dear Sugar advice columns is a heartfelt favorite. Its topics are diverse, its letters to Dear Sugar are intimate and relatable, and Cheryl Strayed's responses are both witty and extraordinarily compassionate.A membership to a huge outdoor co-opREIREI Co-Op Lifetime Membership, $20, available at REIAn REI membership offers a lifetime of benefits for a one-time purchase. That includes 10%-back dividends, special offers, access to in-store REI Garage sales, and special pricing on REI classes and events. If your girlfriend loves the outdoors, this is an option she can enjoy solo and with you. A Dutch oven to elevate their bread gameLodge mfgEnameled Cast Iron Dutch Oven, available at Walmart, $79.90Did your girlfriend get into baking bread and, miraculously, stay committed to it? If so, a really nice Dutch oven can help elevate her experience. You can get something great for under $100, or you can splurge on a beautiful Le Creuset. Other meaningful upgrades include a cooling rack, according to the famous baker Apollonia Poilâne.A subscription that sends her a six-month world tour of teasAtlas Tea ClubAtlas Tea Club 6 Month Subscription, available on Atlas Tea Club, $94This subscription sends your girlfriend single-origin teas from the best tea-growing regions in the world for six months. She'll get two delicious options sent to her home each month.Festive matching underwear from one of the internet's favorite startupsMeUndiesMatching Underwear, available at MeUndies, $42Get yourself and your girlfriend festive matching underwear — which also happen to be some of the most comfortable pairs we've ever found. MeUndies gives you the options to create your own personalized set — two styles listed for women, two styles listed for men, a mix, and whichever length or cut you and your partner prefer. A standing desk for a home office upgradeFullyJarvis Bamboo Standing Desk, available at Fully, from $569If she's working from home, your girlfriend might love a home office upgrade the most. We ranked the Fully Jarvis the best standing desk; it provides the right blend of features and reliable performance. Its customizations for style, height, and accessories make it adaptable to pretty much any need. A framed keepsake of a favorite memoryFramebridgeFramed photo, available at Framebridge, from $45Gift Card, available at Framebridge, from $25Framebridge makes custom framing a bit more affordable. You can print or paint something on your own and have it framed, or have them print and frame it, and you can take advantage of the team of designers for help deciding what frame to get. The best socks she'll ever wearBombasBombas Women's Performance Running Ankle Sock 3-Pack, $49.50Bombas makes the best socks we've ever tried, and they're a gift we find ourselves giving every year to loved ones. They're lightweight, moisture-wicking, and built to circumvent annoyances like uncomfortable seams and heel slipping.A powerful, customizable massage gunTheragunTheragun PRO, available at Therabody, $599This is the best massage gun we've tested — though it's also on the higher end of what you would expect to pay. We loved it in part due to its two-year warranty, adjustable massage arm, customizable speeds, 60 lbs of no-stall force, six different heads, an extra battery, and how easy it is to use. If you can't give your girlfriend an unlimited pass to professional massages, this is a nice in-between option. A nice gold vermeil and sapphire zodiac sign necklaceMejuriAquarius Necklace, available at Mejuri, $395Mejuri is a Canadian startup created in 2015 to make fine jewelry affordable to buy — and it has racked up waitlists with more than 40,000 people before. Their popular Zodiac Necklace is cool, minimalist, and something she can wear every day. It's made in gold vermeil with AAA quality white sapphires. Mejuri's affordable pricing means the estimated traditional retail price of the same necklace elsewhere would be closer to $235.  The best bathrobe that money can buySnoweBathrobe, available at Snowe, $100Snowe's unisex bathrobe has been called the best and most absorbent terry robe on the market, and I'm just one more fervent believer. The cotton fiber traps air for extra absorbency and is soft and plush, and the unisex sizing means it will feel like a blanket-turned-robe. Perfect functionality, and extra points for coziness.A tracker for finding cell phones and wallets quicklyAmazonTile Pro, available at Amazon, $34.99When your girlfriend can't find her phone, all she has to do is click the Tile button to make her phone ring, even if it's on silent. We've found them especially useful lately. A monogrammed jewelry case from a minimalist fashion startupCuyanaLeather Jewelry Case, available at Cuyana, $85 (+ $15 for monogram)Keeping track of tiny and delicate jewelry is difficult — but jewelry cases are a pretty and useful solution. This is a thoughtful and personalized gift, especially if you've gotten your girlfriend jewelry in the past, or plan to in the future. It's made from premium leather, comes in many colors, and can be monogrammed with her initials. Cuyana is a cool leather bag startup she may have already heard of. A pair of blue light-blocking glasses that look good enough to wear outside of the houseFelix GrayFaraday Glasses, available at Felix Gray, from $95If she's ever complained about strain from constant screens, you can help mitigate it with a pair of blue-light-blocking glasses. They might even help with sleep.The convenience of Apple AirPodsHollis Johnson/Business InsiderApple AirPods, available at Best Buy, $119.99When it comes to convenience, truly wireless earbuds are the best. And Apple's AirPods are very popular with iPhone and Android users alike. They look subtle compared to other bigger options, and they're easy to use. For the latest option, you can pick up AirPods Pro for $189.99. A 215-piece art kit for creative projectsAmazonArt 101 215-Piece Wood Art Set, available at Amazon, $49.34If your girlfriend loves to create art, this 215-Piece art kit includes everything she'll need for projects: crayons, colored pencils, oil pastels, fine line markers, watercolor cakes, and acrylic paint.A year-long MasterClass membership to learn about things she's passionate aboutMasterClassAnnual Membership, available at MasterClass, from $180/yearIf your dinner table conversations often include talk of photography, or tennis, or screenwriting, or another passion, consider getting your girlfriend a gift that helps her spend time with her hobbies. We love MasterClass because it kind of feels like entertainment. Classes are short, there's no homework, and she can listen to the audio like its a podcast or watch the videos. The site hosts classes taught by well-known celebrities and industry leaders — from Neil deGrasse Tyson teaching Scientific Thinking and Communication to Malcolm Gladwell on Writing, Shonda Rhimes on Writing for Television, and Bob Iger on Business Strategy and Leadership. You can read our full review here.A one-size-fits-all lid that instantly declutters the cabinetsMade InSilicone Universal Lid Kit, available at Made In, $59This was one of the gifts that professional chefs recommended to us for avid home cooks. If your girlfriend loves to cook and has a plethora of differently sized pots and pans with all the corresponding lids, having one universal lid can declutter and streamline their space in one move. A convenient phone sanitizerPhoneSoapPhoneSoap 3 Smartphone UV Sanitizer, available at PhoneSoap, $79.95This small, easy-to-use device uses UV-C light to sanitize a phone, killing 99.9% of common household germs.A bottle (or two) of wineMcBride SistersMcBride Sisters Black Girl Magic Wine, starting at $19.99As the largest black-owned wine company in the United States, the McBride Sisters Collection is the perfect place to find a wine gift for your girlfriend. The Black Girl Magic collection in particular is inspired by the resilience of black women and includes varieties from Rosé to Merlot. The new Sonos Move portable speakerAmazonSonos Move, available at Best Buy, $399.99The Sonos Move is one of the best speakers on the market. It's powerful, can be controlled by voice or an app, and has Amazon Alexa built-in so on WiFi you can play music, check the news, set alarms, get your questions answered, and more, without much effort.A stylish, savvy carry-on with an external battery packAwayCarry-On, available at Away, from $225Away's hyper-popular suitcases deserve their hype. Their hard shell is lightweight but durable, their 360° spinner wheels make for seamless traveling, and the external (and ejectable and TSA-compliant) battery pack included can charge a smartphone five times over so she never has to sit behind a trash can at the airport for access to an outlet again. It's also guaranteed for life by Away. Find our full review here.16 highly-rated sheet masksAmazon/Business InsiderSheet Mask Set, available at Amazon, $22.99Grab 39 sheet masks to make it easier for your girlfriend to have a frequent and well-deserved "treat yourself" day. These are highly-rated and have both vitamin E and collagen included for healthy, happy skin.   A weighted blanket for better restAmazonYnM Weighted Blanket, available at YnM, from $49.80Weighted blankets help create more restful sleep by "grounding" the body, and YnM makes some of the most popular and affordable weighted blankets on the internet. There are multiple sizes and weights for the ideal fit and width (they recommend picking whichever is about 10% of your body weight), and the segmented design allows you to move around without displacing all the weighted beads inside. A mini multipurpose toolAmazonMini Multitool Knife 12 in 1, available on Amazon, $9.99This lightweight multitool has a knife, pliers, screwdrivers, wire cutters, scissors, and a bottle opener — so it's nine times as many opportunities for being useful as your average gift. A sleek fitness tracker that includes heart rate monitoringFitbitFitbit Inspire 2, available at Best Buy, $69.95Fitbit's affordable Inspire 2 tracker has no shortage of useful features to keep someone informed about their physical activity — tracking calorie burn, resting heart rate, and heart rate zones.An 8-in-1 pan that helps to declutter your homeOur PlaceAlways Pan, available at Our Place, $145If you're spending more time at home cooking together — or re-organizing the kitchen — she may appreciate a good 8-in-1 cookware hack.The Always Pan from startup Our Place is a frying pan, saute pan, steamer, skillet, saucier, saucepan, non-stick pan, spatula, and spoon rest in the space of a single pan. In other words, a clever generalist that's extremely convenient for small spaces or minimalist cooks. You can read our review here.A video message from someone she loves almost as much as youCameo/Business InsiderCameo Video Messages, available at Cameo, from $15Whether it's your girlfriend's favorite actor, comedian, or athlete, you're likely to find someone she admires on Cameo. Cameo allows celebrities to send custom video messages to recipients for nearly any occasion, and a personalized video is a gift that she'll never forget. Personalized cartoon couple mugsShelley KleinPersonalized Family Mugs, available at Uncommon Goods, from $30These cute mugs can be personalized for what you're like as a couple, making for a special weekend morning coffee routine or just a nice reminder in the kitchen cabinet. On the back, you can add a family name and the year the couple was established if you'd like. Silky, breathable leggingsEverlaneEverlane Leggings, $68Everlane's Perform Leggings are some of our all-time favorites — they're breathable and silky, like a slightly less expensive version of Alo leggings. You can read a full review of the Everlane Perform Leggings and see pictures of them here.Beautiful candles from a cool startupOtherlandOtherland Candles, available at Otherland, $36Otherland is a candle company started by Abigail Cook Stone, a former art buyer for Ralph Lauren. If you want to give your girlfriend a candle that burns for 55 hours, looks beautiful, and comes from a startup that she's probably seen (or coveted) before, this is a great option. Find our full review here.The last weekend bag you'll ever need to buy herRothy'sRothy's The Weekender, available at Rothy's, $550With its large, padded top handles and roomy interior, Rothy's The Weekender might be the last overnight bag your partner ever needs. It's got multiple pockets and a sturdy insert that helps it maintain its shape. You'll be shocked by how much you can fit in this bag — definitely enough for a long weekend. It's made of recycled plastic pulled from the ocean and is machine washable.  The "world's most comfortable shoes"AllbirdsWomen's Wool Runners, available at Allbirds, $98The classic Wool Runners make a great gift for the uninitiated, though we'd also highly recommend the brand's casual cup sole Wool Piper for everyday wear if that's more your partner's style. You can find our full review of the Runners here, and the Wool Pipers here.A customized map of her favorite placeGrafomapCustom Map Poster, available at Grafomap, from $49Grafomap lets you design custom maps of anywhere in the world — like the first place you met, the best trip you ever took together, or the hometown she couldn't wait to show you. It's unique, thoughtful, and pretty inexpensive.  You can find our full review here.A gift card to a popular wine subscription clubWincGift Card, available at Winc, from $29.95Winc is a personalized wine club — and we think it's the best one you can belong to overall. Members take a wine palate profile quiz and then choose from the personalized wine suggestions. Each bottle has extensive tasting notes and serving recommendations online, and makes it easy to discover similar bottles. Gift her a Winc gift card, and she can take a wine palate profile quiz and get started with her own customized suggestions. An exercise bike for staying active indoorsNordicTrackCommercial S22i Studio Cycle, available at NordicTrack, $1,499If money is of no object and your partner is trying to figure out how to exercise while staying indoors, an exercise bike is a particularly thoughtful and useful gift right now. We like the NordicTrack option the most overall, but we also like and recommend options that are under $200. A large print on fine art paper of a favorite memoryArtifact Uprising/Business InsiderLarge Format Prints, available at Artifact Uprising, from $22Artifact Uprising makes luxury prints at accessible prices — and they make especially thoughtful gifts that look like they should cost much more. Get one of their favorite photos printed on archival fine art paper for $20 and up, or thoughtful cards for as little as $1 per custom card. You can also make a color series photo book for $22, a set of prints for $9, and a personalized calendar on a handcrafted wood clipboard for $30.A mug that keeps hot drinks hot for up to six hours straightHydro FlaskHydro Flask Mug, 12 oz, available at Hydro Flask, from $24.95This mug is a common desk companion for the Insider Reviews team. The 12-ounce coffee mug has the company's proprietary TempShield insulation that made its water bottles famous. This mug will keep hot drinks hot for up to six hours, and cold drinks cold up to 24 hours. Read our full review of it here.A gift card for delicious, healthy meals she can make in about 30 secondsDaily HarvestGift Card, available at Daily Harvest, from $50Daily Harvest is a food startup that makes it possible to eat healthy, delicious meals for less than $10 each even if you only have 30 seconds to spare for prep time. Meals are pre-portioned, delicious, and designed by both a chef and a nutritionist to make sure they're tasty and good for you. It addressed most of my healthy eating roadblocks. The best hair dryer ever inventedDyson/FacebookDyson Blow Dryer, available at Ulta, $399.99This gift may seem inexplicably expensive, but the Dyson blow dryer is lauded as the best one ever invented, making it a cult favorite. It prevents hair damage by measuring air temperature 20 times per second, has a specially designed Dyson motor for fast drying, and reduces static, breakage, and makes hair look smooth and shiny.Comfy, high-end sheets at the best price on the marketBrooklinenLuxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle, available at Brooklinen, from $240Brooklinen is one of our favorite companies, point-blank. We think they make the best high-end sheets at the best price on the market, and most of the Insider Reviews team uses Brooklinen on their own beds.The Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle comes in plenty of colors and patterns, and you can mix and match them to suit your taste. Grab a gift card if you want to give her more freedom. If you opt for a sheet bundle, she'll receive a core sheet set (fitted, flat, two pillowcases), duvet cover, and two extra pillowcases in soft, smooth 480-thread-count weave.This cozy loungewear set that she'll never want to take offKnixKnix Cozzzy Track Pants, available at Knix, $46.75Cozy and warm, the Cozzzy Track Pants from Knix are comfortable enough to wear around the house while also being cute enough to wear to the market. The ultra-soft fabric feels like the softest terry cloth washcloth you've ever used, and its slouchy fit is modern and luxe. She'll love the joggers with cuffed legs that are sleek without being overly tight. Comes in cream and gray.The internet's favorite olive oilBrightlandAwake Olive Oil, available at Brightland, $37Brightland's olive oils make great gifts for cooks and anyone else who loves to entertain. The white bottles protect the EVOO from light damage and look nice displayed on a countertop. Find a full review here. A high-tech towel that keeps her from slipping around during yoga classesMandukaManduka Yogitoes Yoga Mat Towel, from $42.50Manduka is known for making the best yoga products, and their Yogitoes towel is one of the most loved. It has tiny 100% silicone nubs on one side that grab yoga mats and keep yogis from slipping around during the exercise. Having a good towel can make a big difference. It also comes in 19 great colors and gets eco-friendly points. Each Yogitoes towel is made from eight recycled plastic water bottles, and made with dyes free of azo, lead, or heavy metal. A card game that's meant to deepen personal connectionsUrban OutfittersWe're Not Really Strangers Card Game, available at Urban Outfitters, $30This card game, from the popular Instagram account We're Not Really Strangers, is designed to enhance connections between people with different levels: perceptions, connection, and reflection. Not only is it a card game you haven't played before, but it's also a thoughtful activity you can enjoy with your girlfriend.A cooking class from one of the nation's top chefsCozymeal/InstagramGift Card, available at Cozymeal, from $50With a Cozymeal class, you and your girlfriend can learn how to make anything from fresh pasta to Argentinian staple dishes from the nation's top chefs. In addition to cooking classes, Cozymeal offers food tours in various cities (when it's safe to do so). A satin-lined beanieAndrea Bossi / Business InsiderKink & Coil Satin-Lined Beanie, $36Most people with naturally curly hair avoid wearing hats to reduce frizz, but Kink and Coil's satin-lined beanie solves that issue. Just like a silk pillowcase or a bonnet, the inside of the beanie is designed to protect your hair from frizz and damage. On top of that, the pom-pom can be removed, if she'd prefer to wear the hat without it.We spoke with a trichologist to learn more about how satin- and silk-lined beanies can benefit anyone with curly or high-porosity hair. Rihanna's bestselling Fenty skincare setFenty BeautyFenty Skin Start'rs Full-Size Bundle, $75Rihanna's bestselling skincare bundle from her brand Fenty includes everything she'll need to maintain healthy skin. The kit includes a facial cleanser, toner, and two-in-one sunscreen moisturizer. Read our full review of the Fenty skincare set here.A cashmere crew from Everlane that she'll own foreverEverlaneThe Cashmere Crew, available at Everlane, from $120For a closet staple she'll own for years to come, Everlane's $120 Cashmere Crew (available in various colors) is about the safest choice you can make. Everlane has plenty of great gifts (you can find the Everlane basics we wear repeatedly here), so you can't really go wrong. A small cold brew coffee makerAmazonAirtight Cold Brew Iced Coffee Maker, available at Walmart, $34.99This small cold brew maker (available in 1-liter and 1.5-liter options) makes coffee's less acidic, smoother cousin cold brew in 12 hours in the fridge, so there's minimal hassle and always a treat ready in the morning on your girlfriend's way out the door to work. A stylish leather makeup pouch that's thoughtful and easy to travel withDagne DoverHunter Toiletry Bag, available at Dagne Dover, from $40Dagne Dover is quickly becoming one of the best women's handbag companies to know, and its toiletry pouches are a great and relatively affordable gift. The small size holds a handful of go-to toiletries, and the large should have enough space for all of the grooming essentials.A comfy zip-up for the months aheadPatagoniaBetter Sweater, available at Patagonia, from $139Patagonia makes our favorite athleisure options overall, and that definitely includes the Better Sweater. It works in pretty much any environment — in the office, at home, on a hike, or on a casual night out — and has zippered pockets to keep hands warm in the cold months. We're also big fans of the 1/4 Zip option.A new waterproof Kindle Paperwhite for reading anywhereAmazonKindle Paperwhite, available at Amazon, $129.99If your girlfriend is a reader, we'd suggest looking at Amazon's new Kindle Paperwhite; it's the company's thinnest and lightest yet, with double the storage. Perhaps the best features are that it's waterproof and has a built-in adjustable light for the perfect reading environment indoors or outdoors, day or night. If she loves a nice, relaxing bath, pair this with a caddy, bath bombs, and a glass of wine for a relaxing night in that you've already taken care of.A cult-favorite hair towel that reduces damage and cuts drying time by 50%AquisAquis Rapid Dry Hair Towel, available at Anthropologie, from $30Aquis' cult-favorite hair towels can cut the amount of time it takes for her hair to dry in half — a claim we're happy to report holds up. The proprietary fabric also means there's less damage to wet hair while it dries. A fun, unique local dateAirbnb/Business InsiderAirbnb Experiences, available at Airbnb, from $10Airbnb started offering experience programming online. You can book from thousands of experiences that range from workouts with Olympic athletes over Zoom to cooking classes with chefs you'd normally have to hop on a flight to meet. We tested a a tango class and a Moroccan cooking class.It's also an under-utilized part of Airbnb, making it a thoughtful and unusual gift — and one you may keep using with your girlfriend for out-of-the-box date nights in the future. As states and countries slowly begin reopening, Airbnb listings and in-person activities are becoming options again, but you can still participate in online activities from home if you're not ready to travel yet or just want a fun activity. A houseplant that arrives already potted and is easy to care forLeon & GeorgeSilver Evergreen, available at Leon & George, from $149Leon & George is a San Francisco startup that will send beautiful plants — potted in stylish, minimalist pots — to your girlfriend's door. All she has to do is to occasionally add water. Flowers are wonderful, but houseplants have a much longer shelf life, and most of Leon & George's options are very easy to care for. We'd also recommend checking out Bloomscape for small plant trios under $70.  Beautiful earrings she'll own foreverStone and StrandSparkle Diamond Cluster Huggies, available at Stone and Strand, $395They're solid gold, conflict-free, and made locally. Plus, the style is versatile enough that your girlfriend can wear them every day.A membership to a popular skincare and makeup subscription that sends new, cool, and bestselling products once per monthConnie Chen/Business InsiderBirchbox Gift Subscription, available at Birchbox, from $45Birchbox is a skincare and makeup subscription that sends tons of samples of new and cult-favorite products to subscribers so they can find products they love without much commitment or cost upfront. Makeup and skincare products can be expensive, so this is a particularly helpful service. A funny and unique cardLoveFromCo/EtsyYou Take My Breath Away, available at Etsy, from $4.09You can pick up a card from Walgreens on your way to exchange gifts, but it'll mean more if you think just a few days ahead. Etsy has great options for cheap, unique, handmade gifts that are cool and thoughtful. This one is perfect for a couple who appreciates a "The Office" deep cut. A streaming stick that gives you access to hundreds of thousands of movies and TV episodesAmazonRoku Streaming Stick +, available at Best Buy, $44.99Roku's Streaming Stick+ is exceptional for its 4K, HDR, and HD streaming, and long-range wireless receiver. Installing it is an easy process and starts by plugging the stick into his TV.A great foam rollerTB12Vibrating Pliability Roller, available on TB12, $160If your girlfriend is very physically active, a foam roller is a nice gift to aid in her workout recovery and soreness. This one is our favorite because it has four levels of vibration, a pattern that targets muscle groups, and a durable exterior. But, if your budget doesn't fit a $160 foam roller, never fear — we like some under-$20 options too. A subscription to a book club that sends her great hardcovers once per monthBook of the Month Instagram3-Month Subscription, available at Book of the Month, $49.99If she's a bookworm, Book of the Month is an especially thoughtful and unique gift — it's a book club that has been around since 1926, and it's credited with discovering some of the most beloved books of all time ("Gone with the Wind" and "Catcher in the Rye" to name a couple). If you gift her a subscription, she'll receive a hardcover book delivered to her door once a month. Books are selected by a team of experts and celebrity guest judges.If she's really more into audiobooks or e-reading now rather than hardcovers, check out a gift subscription to Scribd (full review here).Fancy popcorn and a movie nightWilliams SonomaAmish Popcorn Gift Set, available at Williams Sonoma, $29.95Make a reservation at a nice outdoor restaurant, stock up on your girlfriend's favorite movie candy and some fun drinks ahead of time (wrap them for an extra wow-factor), and create your own in-house cinema experience. Or, perhaps even better, order a bunch of take-out from your favorite local restaurants.A gift set of a dozen decadent bath bombsAmazonBath Bomb Gift Set, available at Walmart, $34.53This bath bomb gift set comes with 12 handcrafted bath bombs that range from mango-papaya to lavender in scent, and some of which include flower petals. They're a great addition to a long bath, as is a bamboo bathtub tray. A subscription to a coffee service that sends coffees specifically for her taste preferencesDriftaway Facebook3-Month Subscription, available at Driftaway Coffee, from $75If your girlfriend loves coffee, she'll probably love to try Driftaway. It's a gourmet coffee subscription that gets smarter the longer you use it, remembering your preferences and steering you towards increasingly accurate brews for your specific tastes. The first shipment will be a tasting kit with four coffee profiles, which she'll rate online or in the app to start getting personalized options.A book of love letters written by history's great menAmazonLove Letters of Great Men, available at Amazon, $13.95It can be hard to do yourself justice in words — whether they're spoken or written in a card. This compilation of love letters written by great men can help you say it without actually technically saying it. Bonus points if you write your own, or mark the ones in the book that most closely resemble your own feelings.  A beautiful diamond necklace she'll have foreverAUrateDiamond Bezel Necklace, available at AUrate, from $320A diamond necklace doesn't have to be thousands of dollars, as fine jewelry startups like AUrate are proving. This necklace is something she can keep and wear forever, and both the solid gold and conflict-free diamonds are of the highest quality. Lush, subtly scented body washNecessaireNecessaire — The Body Wash, available at Sephora, $25New startup Necessaire formulates its body care products with nourishing vitamins and clean ingredients. The subtly scented Body Wash will leave her skin feeling clean, soft, and nourished. Hand sanitizer that smells goodTouchlandTouchland Power Mist Hand Sanitizer, available at Touchland, $9Many of us are using hand sanitizer a lot these days. Why not pick one they'd enjoy using? This version from Touchland is a little moisturizing and doesn't smell like alcohol or make hands sticky. Read our full review here.A stylish weekender to keep her organized on the goCaraa SportCaraa Studio Tote Large, available at Caraa, $250Caraa Sport makes some of the most functional and best-looking gym bags on the market. This one can transition from tote to backpack by adding straps. It also has a hidden shoe compartment and a waterproof and antimicrobial lining.An award-winning at-home facialSephoraDrunk Elephant T.L.C. Sukari Babyfacial, available at Sephora, $80This is an award-winning mask with a big following in the beauty and skincare community. It's $80, but it's an at-home pro-quality facial your girlfriend can use anytime — which is a fraction of the price required for regular facials.Kitchen towels that rate wines by how well they pair with certain foodsUncommon GoodsWine Pairing Towel, available at Wolf & Badger, $19If your girlfriend loves having a nice glass of wine and/or cooking, she'll appreciate the thought behind this unique wine pairing towel. Grab a bottle and some corresponding ingredients for a fun night in for the two of you.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytDec 8th, 2021

Transcript: John Doerr

   The transcript from this week’s, MiB: John Doerr, Kleiner Perkins, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This… Read More The post Transcript: John Doerr appeared first on The Big Picture.    The transcript from this week’s, MiB: John Doerr, Kleiner Perkins, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have, yes, an extra special guest, John Doerr of the famed venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins is here to discuss all things venture capital and climate related. He has a new book out that’s really quite interesting. We talk about everything from crypto to Tesla to beyond me, to all of the opportunities that exist in order to help moderate and reduce carbon in the atmosphere and the potential climate crisis that awaits us if we don’t change our ways. So, Doerr is a venture capitalist. He invests money in order to generate a return. These aren’t just finger-wagging-be-green-for-green sake. He describes their venture fund which they put nearly a billion dollars into it 10 years ago and now, it’s worth over three billion. That’s how successful the returns have been. He describes the climate crisis as a multitrillion dollar opportunity. Yes, we need to do something in order to make sure we leave our children and grandchildren a habitable Earth. At the same time, there is a massive opportunity in everything from food to electrical grid, to transportation, on and on and on. It really is quite fascinating somebody like him sees the world from both perspectives, from the, hey, we want to make sure we have a habitable place to live but he can’t take off his VC hat and he sees just massive opportunities to do well by doing good. Really, a fascinating conversation. With no further ado, my interview with Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr. ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. RITHOLTZ: My extra special guest this week is John Doerr. He is the famed venture capitalists known for his work at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. The venture capital firm operates 32 funds. They’ve made more than 675 investments, including such early-stage funding for companies like Google, Twitter, Amazon and too many others to list. Doerr still holds a substantial stake in his initial investment in Google. His most recent book is “Speed & Scale: An Action Plan for Solving our Climate Crisis Now.” John Doerr, welcome to Bloomberg. JOHN DOERR, CHAIRMAN, KLEINER PERKINS: It’s thrilled to be here with you, Barry. Thank you. RITHOLTZ: And I’m thrilled to talk to you. Let’s go back to the early parts of your career before we start to get current. You originally joined Intel because you couldn’t land a gig as a venture capitalist. Tell us a little bit about that. DOERR: I came to Silicon Valley with no job, no place to live and incidentally, no girlfriend. The lady I’ve been dating decided I was too persistent and dumped me. So, I — my real goal was to win my way back into her heart and to join with some friends to start a company. I wanted to start a company and I heard that venture capital had something to do with that. So, I cold called all the venture capitalists and some of them returned my call in the mid-70s and they looked at my experience and uniformly included that I should go get a real job. That was their advice. I remember Dick Gramley (ph) said, we just backed a small new chip company called Intel, why don’t you interview for a job there, and I did. And lo and behold, unbeknownst to me, my former girlfriend, Ann Howland, now Ann Howland Doerr, has gotten a job at Intel. I got a job there and when I arrived that first summer day, I was surprised to see her there and she was not happy to see me. So, it took the rest of the summer to put our relationship back together again. But I love Intel, it was a dynamic place. They just invented the microprocessor and I’ve seriously considered abandoning my graduate education in business as it turns out to just stay at Intel. But I returned there after graduating and worked for, I guess, four or five years helping democratize computing as to get microprocessors used in everything from traffic lights to defibrillators, to nuclear resonance magnetic imaging systems, and it was all because I wanted to be part of new rapidly growing companies. RITHOLTZ: How did you work your way from Intel to venture investing? How did you find your way to Kleiner Perkins? DOERR: I got a phone call one day from a friend who said, hey, John, I just finished interviewing for job at a venture capital firm, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. It sounded to me like a law firm. I really didn’t know them. But he said, you should go interview there because what they want to add to their team is someone younger professional with a strong technical background, a good network in Silicon Valley, and a passion for startups. I think you and they would make a great fit. So, I didn’t — they ran an ad actually in the “Wall Street Journal” for this position which I didn’t see. But I called up, I interviewed and got a job there as an entry level professional, a gofer, I did everything. I carried people’s bags. I read business plans. But there was one important condition that I had and that is I made them promise that they would back me with my friends in starting a company. I went to work there because, honestly, I wasn’t interested in venture capital. I wanted to be an early ’80s entrepreneur. And they had — they agreed to that and pointed out that they had backed other young partners at Kleiner in writing business plans. Bob Swanson had written a business plan for Genentech that led to the whole biotech industry and Jimmy Treybig had done the same thing with Tandem Computers. My current partner, Brook Byers as the young partner at Kleiner wrote the business plan for hybrid tech. So, Eugene Kleiner and Tom Perkins were unusual and I’d even say mythic or epic figures in that they had technical backgrounds. They started their own companies and they felt that was part of what their venture capital firm ought to do. RITHOLTZ: So, here’s the key question, how come you never left Kleiner Perkins? Why didn’t you launch your own startup? DOERR: Well, I did. They backed me in doing it. The first was one called Silicon Compilers. I became the full-time CEO and founder of that with a Cal Tech professor, Carver Mead. RITHOLTZ: Sure. DOERR: Then as I worked with companies like Compaq, Sun Microsystems, they were growing really rapidly, I realized I was not at all qualified to advise these entrepreneurs. So, I took another 18-month leave of absence from Kleiner to run the desktop division of Sun and almost left Kleiner permanently to do that. But Ann and I wanted to start a family and she said, you know, you’re doing this Sun thing and keeping involved in Kleiner, it’s just not going to work, we have to make some choices here. And so, I left my operating role at Sun. But never gave up an interest in starting new companies and did that again at a later time with a company called @Home. You may remember that they … RITHOLTZ: Sure. DOERR: … standardized and commercialized the cable modem to access the Internet. Before the @Home venture, access to the Internet was really very slow and cable modem swept the United States and our company was key in making that happen. RITHOLTZ: So, I like this quote from you, “If you can’t invent the future, the next best thing is to fund it.” And so, I guess that helps to explain your move from Sun over back to Kleiner Perkins. DOERR: Exactly. It was Alan Kay, the Chief Scientist at Apple, who said the best way to predict the future is to invent it and while I’ve made some inventions, they’re modest, my better fortune has been to find amazing entrepreneurs, identify them and then help fund and accelerate their success. RITHOLTZ: Quite interesting. Amazon, Netscape, Applied Materials, Citrix, Intuit, Genentech, EA Sports, Compaq, Slack, Uber, Square, Spotify, Robinhood, that is just an amazing, amazing list of startups that you guys were fairly early investors in. Any of them stand out as uniquely memorable to you? DOERR: Well, two of the standouts got to be Amazon and Google, now, Alphabet, because, what are they, they’re two of the four or five most valuable companies in the world and I think both of them have profoundly changed the way that we live, communicate, educate, inform, conduct commerce, see the world. They both — what they both have in common is exceptional founders and really strong management teams who have a sense of urgency and a focus on either large new markets or large existing markets that deserved and have benefited from disruption. So, I remember when I was first offered a position at Kleiner Perkins, I told them that I thought it was kind of unfair that they would pay me to do the job. I would pay them for the privilege of working with these amazing entrepreneurs and founders. RITHOLTZ: So, when you’re thinking about putting money into the Amazon in the mid ’90s or Google in the late ’90s, at any point in that process, are you thinking, sure, these can become $2 trillion companies soon? DOERR: Well, I had no really good idea how big they could be. So, I put the question to Jeff Bezos and his response was, well, John, I don’t know but we’re going to get big fast. At that time, I kicked up something of a firestorm by proclaiming that the Internet had been under hyped and it might be the largest legal creation of wealth in our lifetimes. But I was more clear and explicit with Larry Page when I met with him and Sergey and I asked Larry, how big Google would get. I’ll never forget this, Barry. He responded to me without missing a beat, 10 billion, and I said, just to test myself, I said, surely, you mean market capitalization, don’t you, and he said, no, John, I mean revenues. We’re just beginning in the field of search and you cannot imagine how much better it’s going to get over time. And sure enough, he was, he was more than right. RITHOLTZ: To say the very least. So, let’s talk a bit about Google. You are known for introducing to both Larry and Sergey your concept of, OKRs, objectives and key results. What was the impact of that on Google? How did they respond to your suggestion on come up with objectives and come up with ways to measure your progress? DOERR: So, for everyone in your audience, objectives and key results or OKRs is a goalsetting system that Andy Grove invented at Intel and that’s because in the semiconductor industry, I’m a refugee from the semiconductor industry, you got to get tens of thousands of people to get lines that are a millionth of a meter, one micron wide, exactly right or nothing works, the chips fail. So, you need exceptional discipline, attention to detail, focus and execution. And so, Andy came up with the system. I was so enamored of it. When I left Intel, I took it everywhere I went from nonprofits to startups to large companies. The Gates Foundation in the nearly days, for example, how — they were — I mean, they were a very large nonprofit startup and an important one for the planet. So, I took Andy Grove’s system to Larry and Sergey, the founders of Google, in the very early days and I went through it with them and at the end of it asked them, so, guys, what you think, would you use this in growing Google, and Larry was — had no comment whatsoever. But Sergey, he was more like brilliant. I’d like to tell you, Barry, that he said, we love this, we’re going to adopt it wholeheartedly. Well, the truth of the matter is what he said was, we don’t have any better way to manage this Google company. So, we’ll give it a try, which I took as a ringing endorsement because what’s happened since then to this day, every Googler, every quarter, writes down her objectives and key results and publishes them for the entire company to see and interestingly, they never leaked. So, there’s 140,000 Googlers who are doing this four times a year. They’re graded. But at the end of each quarter, they’re swept aside because they’re not used for bonuses or promotions. They serve a higher purpose and that’s a collective social contract to get everybody focused and aligned and committed in tracking their progress to stretch for almost impossible to achieve goals. And I’m telling you this story because the same system that Andy Grove invented has now spread pretty broadly through the technology and other sectors of the economy and it’s at the heart of this plan that we have called speed and scale to deal with climate crisis. RITHOLTZ: Quite interesting. I want to stick with some of the early investments that you made and ask a really broad general question, how likely is it that a company you made in early stage investment in ends up looking like the company you thought you were investing in, meaning, how often do companies iterate or pivot into something totally different from what you thought you were getting involved with? DOERR: Well, I was going to say not often if it’s totally different. But if it’s meaningfully different, that happens all the time. And that’s why in the venture capital work that we do, it’s so important to back — to find fund and build a relationship with the right people because the people and the quality of the team is going to affect how they pivot, how they adapt their business plan to changing markets, changing technologies, changing opportunities. RITHOLTZ: Very interesting. So, you mentioned Amazon and Google as just uniquely memorable startups. What about some memorable ones that you thought would work out that didn’t or I know VCs love to talk about look how silly we are, we had an opportunity to invest in X and we passed and now X is fabulously successful, what stands out in that space? DOERR: Well, the standout in that space is the bad decision we made to invest in Fisker instead of in Tesla and at that time, they had similar strategies, which was to enter the electric vehicle market with high-end luxury, pretty expensive car and then to drive the cost of that vehicle down over time. Both companies were struggling to raise money. One of them had experienced executive from the automobile industry, fundamentally a designer by the name of Henrik Fisker as its founder and CEO. The other had Elon Musk who had no automobile industry experience but was determined to reinvent every part of the automotive car doing it more as a machine to run software than a collection of subsystems procured from the automobile industry. We made the wrong call and the rest is history. RITHOLTZ: That Fisker, that first Fisker car was just a gorgeous design and at that time, Tesla was taking old Lotus convertibles and filling them with laptop batteries. Between the two, it’s pretty easy to see how the Fisker opportunity really looked more intriguing than Tesla did way back when. How typical is that for the world of venture? DOERR: It happens all the time. RITHOLTZ: All the time. DOERR: That’s what makes the job of finding funding and accelerating the success of entrepreneurs hard. RITHOLTZ: To say the very least. So, there was just a new report that came out. It said, renewable energy in the U.S. has quadrupled over the past decade. So, we’re all good, right? There’s nothing else to worry about with the climate? DOERR: I wish that was true. I came to this project, this passion back in 2006 when Al Gore’s movie, you remember “An Inconvenient Truth” appeared. RITHOLTZ: Sure. DOERR: And I took my family and friends to see it and we came back for a dinner conversation and went around the table to see what people thought. When it came turn for my 16-year-old daughter Mary Doerr, she said, I’m scared and I’m angry. She said, dad, your generation created this problem, you better fix it. And, Barry, I was speechless, I had no idea what to say. So, I set out with partners at Kleiner Perkins to understand the extent of the climate crisis, even hired Al Gore as a partner and over time, over three funds, invested a third up to a half of the funds, total about $1 billion in some 70 climate ventures, most of which failed and, in fact, it’s hard, it’s very hard to grow a climate tech or green tech venture. It’s pretty lonely in the early days of doing that. And we almost lost all of our investments but we stood by these entrepreneurs and they produced companies like Beyond Meat or Enphase or the NEST smart thermostats and today are worth some $3 billion. But that was then, this is now. I think what’s important about now is we need way greater ambition and speed to avert catastrophic, irreversible climate crisis. I mean, the evidence is all around us. We’ve got devastating hurricanes and floods and wildfires and 10 million climate refugees. The IPCC says that if we don’t reduce our carbon emissions by 2030 by 55 percent, we will see global warming overshoot by more than 2°C, nearly 4°F. And the Paris accords, which were agreed to in 2015, if we were achieving them, it would still cause us to land at around 2°C. The bad news is we’re not close to achieving any of those goals. So, the latest report from the UN said this is a code red problem and I also see all problems as opportunities. Barry, I think this is going to be the greatest opportunity, human opportunity, social opportunity, economic opportunity for the 21st century. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s talk a little bit about that opportunity. You talked in the book about cutting emissions in half by 2030 and net zero by 2050 and you referenced six main areas of attack, transportation, the electrical grid, food, protecting nature, cleaning up industry, and then removing carbon from the atmosphere. Let’s talk a little bit about each of those because they’re all quite fascinating. We were talking about Tesla, how quickly do we think that we’re going to be past internal combustion engines with a fully electrified transportation network? DOERR: Well, that’s a great question and we can — I want to put this in context. Every year, we dump 59 gigatons of carbon, greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere as if it’s some kind of free and open sewer. And so, the book and the research behind it has built a plan in electrifying transportation and the other five for which each of the objectives has three to five key results. These are Andy Grove Intel style, very measurable specific steps in transportation. It says that electric vehicles will achieve parity, price performance parity with combustion engines in the U.S. by 2024. It says one of two new personal vehicles purchased worldwide are electric vehicles by 2030. So, what I’m trying to say is this is a global plan. RITHOLTZ: Right. DOERR: We’ve seen some nations of the world, some states like California say they’re going to ban the sale of internal combustion vehicles. And there’s also key results for buses, for trucks, for miles driven, for airplanes and maritime and this whole plan is available for free. You can download it at the website speedandscale.com. So, it’s pragmatic, it’s ambitious, it’s almost unachievable. It’s a total of 55 key results for the world, numeric time bound, and we’ve got to get after them all at once. We can’t take turns. We’re not going to achieve all of these, Barry. It’s — but if we fall short on one, we can make ground faster in others. Now, I don’t want to intimidate people by how big — how tall an order this is. The book also includes 35 stories from entrepreneurs and policymakers and leaders and innovators, leaders of indigenous tribes that describe in their own words their struggle, their successes, their journey to change the world. One of my favorites is of a cross-country team who got together to petition their school district to go to cleaner busses. They were sick and tired of running behind diesel buses with polluted air and it shows that something that I deeply believe and that is we’re fast running out of time. And so, yes, we need individuals to take individual action to eat less meat, use photovoltaic solar and buy an electric vehicle if you can afford it. But I’ve really written this book for the leader inside of everyone, their inner leader, and that’s their ability to influence others to act as a group like this cross-country team of runners in Maryland who got their school district to adopt electric buses. What the book shows is that we can get this job done but, as I said, we’re fast running out of time. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s talk a little bit about — by the way, the bus discussions in the book are quite fascinating not just because China leapt out to a big lead and have been very aggressively replacing diesel buses with electric buses but you helped fund an entrepreneur in the U.S. that’s gone around and has done a great job getting cities to purchase electric buses. The transportation grid is clearly an issue but as you point out, that’s only six gigatons. A bigger issue is the grid, the electric grid, which produces 21 gigatons of emissions. Tell us about what we need to do to decarbonize the electrical grid. DOERR: 100%, you’re right. If we move to electric vehicles but we still use coal to generate electricity, we won’t have reduced emissions. And the biggest opportunity is to decarbonize the grid and that’s to take today’s 24 gigatons of emissions mostly from goal, also natural gas to generate electricity. Take that 24 down to three gigatons. So, the first key result, the biggest of them, is to get 50 percent of our electricity from zero emission sources globally by 2025 and get it down to 38 percent — get a 90 percent by 2035. That would save us 16.5 gigatons. Simply put, we need to move to renewable sources like wind and solar and invest in longer-term durable storage so that we have reliable energy when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s talk about that battery technology a little bit. We’ve seen a series of incremental improvements over time but nothing has been like an order of magnitude improvement. Will we be able to get there soon enough? Do we need a Manhattan project for batteries or are all those incremental improvements compounding and we’ll get there eventually? DOERR: Much of the improvement that is needed in all of these technologies is lowering their costs. And so, batteries today are still too expensive for electric vehicles in India and in China. They’re barely affordable in the U.S. marketplace. RITHOLTZ: Right. DOERR: And so, the book tells the story of QuantumScape, I’ll disclose, a public company that I’ve invested in and served on the board of, an entrepreneur by the name of Jagdeep Singh and he is going for a quantum improvement in batteries to more than double their energy density. The energy density of a battery is how much energy you’ll get out of it for a pound of weight of a battery and it’s especially important in electric vehicles because the most expensive part of the vehicle is the battery and it’s the heaviest part and you got use energy to move the weight around. So, if you double the energy density of a battery, you can get a three or four times systems improvement in the vehicle itself. I’m not expecting, I don’t think anyone is forecasting an order of magnitude improvement. We’ve seen considerable lowering costs of batteries over time. But the QuantumScape innovation, which is an all solid-state battery, would be a genuine breakthrough. RITHOLTZ: Let’s talk a little bit about food, another key source of emissions. How can we become more efficient in growing the food affecting the menu of what we eat and reducing enough food waste to make a difference? DOERR: There’s three big things t to do about food. The first is to reduce the meat and dairies in our diet and I’m not saying cut them out entirely but to replace some of that with delicious, healthy plant-based proteins. And the book tells a story of Beyond Meat and the crusade of its founder. He struggled and mortgaged his house to lead the revolution in plant-based protein. It turns out that there’s a billion cows on the planet. The book tells you their story as well. If they were a nation, it would be the third largest country in terms of the emissions. The second big thing to do about food is to reduce food waste. Globally, 30 percent of the food that we produce is wasted and taking some straightforward measures we think that can be reduced. Our goal is to reduce it to 10 percent of the food that we produce, particularly when you consider the population will grow to 10 billion by the end of the century. Finally, we got to get more efficient with how we grow food and we can, for example, apply fertilizer much more precisely with new technologies. All in all, the food sector is a way for us to reduce nine gigatons of emissions to two gigatons by 2050 or a net gain of seven out of the 59 gigatons that we got to drive to zero. RITHOLTZ: So, we’ve spent a lot of time talking about beef and agriculture generally. But let’s talk about commercial fishing, what’s the impact of our fishing practices on the health of the oceans and its ability to absorb carbon and reflect heat? DOERR: Well, over fishing together with over drilling and over development have released huge amounts of carbon from the ocean floor and life and if we prevented the destruction of mangroves and other ocean life, we could prevent a gigaton of emissions from entering the atmosphere every year. Our plan calls to eliminate deep sea bottom trawling, which is an especially destructive practice. Bottom trawling releases one and a half gigatons of CO2 equivalent emissions. It also calls for increasing the protection of oceans to 30 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050. I want to call out, this is an area of climate ambition that Walmart is staking out an important and powerful leadership position. Not only that they said they’re going to have their supply chain be carbon neutral by 2040 but they are going to preserve, protect millions of acres of land and ocean water in the effort to become the first scale regenerative company. RITHOLTZ: Really, really interesting. So, very often, the average person listening to a conversation like this thinks, well, what can I do, I’m just one person. What’s the balance of responsibility between individuals on one side and government and institutions on the other? DOERR: We need all the forces in our economy, in our society to come together and work on this. We need innovators. We need entrepreneurs. We need policymakers. We need investors. We need to hear more from impassioned youth. In 2018, Greta Thunberg was a single high school student skipping school on Fridays. A year later, in 2019, in December, she organized a million-person march in a hundred cities around the world and specifically, she made the climate crisis atop two voting issue in the nations in Europe. Barry, it is not a top voting issue in the U.S. It is not a top issue in China or even in India. So, we have work to do and that’s one of our accelerants, the ways we get all this done faster and that’s to turn movements into specific actions. We really need individuals to lead others in powerful ways. That’s, for example, employees, pushing your employers to make net-zero commitment or shareholders and investors demanding changes in the board rooms. It turns out that changing the lightbulbs and eating less meat is important but we’ve got to go further. We’ve got to change our laws or even our lawmakers in order to avert this climate crisis. RITHOLTZ: Quite fascinating. I want to talk about some of the things you’ve said in the book that apply everywhere but are especially applicable to the climate crisis. Let’s start with, quote, “It seems every dozen years we witness magical ever-exponentially larger waves of innovation.” So, let’s start first with climate, how and where are those waves of innovation coming that’ll help ameliorate the climate crisis? DOERR: Well, the innovations are happening on many fronts, the material sciences, electrochemistry, biology. The opportunity that the climate transition to a clean energy the economy represents is the largest of our lifetime. It’s a bigger mobilization than even the effort of the allies to defeat the Nazi Axis in World War II. You’ll remember then, we shut down for four years all manufacturing of automobiles and appliances and instead, created 268,000 fighter aircrafts, 20,000 battleships. It was a monumental effort dealing with an existential threat. And that same level of innovation and ambition is required to win in this climate campaign. Other areas of breakthroughs or innovations, I’m even becoming a believer that we’ll see nuclear fusion. That’s the kind of clean energy that comes from the sun, practical within a decade. Concrete and steel that’s carbon free, long duration storage, the opportunities to reimagine and reinvent how we create, share, transmit and use energy in every facet of our lives is as big an opportunity as we’ll see in our lifetime. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s stay focused on that opportunity for a minute. This isn’t a charity or a foundation that’s doing this for free. When we look around, there are actual venture investments that you’ve been making successfully. So, you past on Tesla but somebody put money into Tesla. Wind turbines, solar, Beyond Meat is now public company. You are an early investor into that. You’re looking at this as more than just, hey, we have to do this in order to make sure that we don’t have a runaway greenhouse effect and Earth turns into Venus and becomes uninhabitable. But there are also very legitimate economic opportunities here also. Expound on those a little bit. DOERR: Well, there’s no better example than Tesla which had gone from a struggling company reliant on loans, thank you, United States taxpayers, to the sought most valuable company in the world. And by some measures, Elon Musk is the most — is the richest individual in the world. He took on huge risks and he delivered for his customers and shareholders, his country and his planet. And the best of the work that Elon has done is inspire, perhaps, through fear but certainly by example the rest of the automobile industry to accelerate their shift to clean and electric vehicles. So, this is, how I like to say, the mother of all markets. It’s a monster market. Batteries alone, the batteries to move from internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles, are estimated to be $400 billion per year, Barry, for 20 years. We are going to — we must recreate all the infrastructure that we use to power out planet. RITHOLTZ: Let’s talk about something we haven’t gotten to when we were talking about those larger waves of innovation. Lots of folks are excited about blockchain and crypto and Web 3.0. But when we look at things like Bitcoin, it’s a big energy hog, how do we reconcile all the wealth that’s being created there with its massive electricity consumption? DOERR: Its electricity consumption is sustainable and so, we’re going to have to move to clean Bitcoin, green Bitcoin and we’ll get there by regulation, if not, by other market forces I would predict. Today, I believe that Bitcoin uses as much energy as the entire nation of Sweden. So, Bitcoin, I believe, is here to stay but it — we can’t fuel it through dirty electricity. RITHOLTZ: You mentioned concrete earlier and I also read in the book that you want to end single-use plastics. What does the world of material science promised us for replacing things in those spaces? How do you replace concrete? How do you replace single-use plastic? DOERR: Concrete is probably the hardest problem of all because in the production of the concrete, you almost must create carbon emissions. We can reduce the energy use to make concrete. There are some concrete innovations that absorb the CO2 into the material. But that’s an area where we need more innovation. What was your second area? RITHOLTZ: Single-use plastics. DOERR: Single-use plastics. The plan calls for the banning and really the replacement of single-use plastics. The banning of single-use plastics and in general to replace plastics with compostable materials that can be recycled and I am confident that with investment and entrepreneurial work, we can get that done. RITHOLTZ: So, we haven’t really talked about pulling carbon out of the atmosphere. I get the sense from some people that they’re expecting some technological magic bullet that’s going to solve climate change. Tell us about how we can remove carbon from the atmosphere and is there a magic bullet coming. DOERR: The speed and scale plan calls for us to remove 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide per year. I emphasize remove. This will be gigatons of CO2 emissions that we were not able to eliminate, we were not able to cut, we were not able to slash. They’ll be some uses of aviation fuel as an example or other stubborn carbon. Two approaches to this, one of which is to innovate around nature-based ways of removing CO2. For example, growing greater kelp forest in the oceans. But the other that has captured a lot of attention is called direct air capture or that’s engineered removal of carbon. Think of them as kind of mechanical trees and this technology works today but only at small scale. It sucks the CO2 out of the air. It requires a lot of electricity in order to do that. And so, it’s very expensive today, some $600 per ton. If we’ve got to remove five gigatons per year at $600 per ton, that’s $3 trillion a year and it’s hard to see how that’s affordable. So, entrepreneurs are hard at work to lower those costs and I hope they do. RITHOLTZ: So, there’s a quote I like from another venture capitalist who said venture capital properly deployed can solve the biggest problems, filling the void left by shrinking scientific ambitions of governments, foundations and international organizations. What are your thoughts on that approach? How crucial is venture capital to our future and can it replace these other entities? DOERR: Venture capital is crucial and it’s stepping up to the challenge. There will be an estimated $30 billion invested venture capital in climate technologies this year. Our plan calls for 50 billion this year. But venture capital is not going to get this job done on its own. We need government-funded research and development to grow in the U.S. alone to 40 billion a year. Other countries have got to triple their funding. We need project financing. We need philanthropic investing. Jeff Bezos’ commitment of $10 billion to the Bezos Earth Fund is the largest philanthropic commitment to climate crisis that we’ve ever witnessed or enjoyed. There’s really four accelerators that will get this job done. One of them is investing. Another is innovation, the work of entrepreneurs. But I think the hardest are going to be to turn our movements into actions so we get the politics and the policy correct because it’s going to take a massive, collective, coordinated effort to achieve our ultimate OKR and that’s to take 59 gigatons of emissions to net zero by 2050. RITHOLTZ: That’s an ambitious target and if we miss that target, what are the ramifications? DOERR: We’ll leave our kids and our grandkids an uninhabitable planet. We’ll see the Arctic sea ice surely melts away. We’ll have — estimates are up to a billion climate refugees. There’s 10 million of them already. Hundreds of millions of people will starve. It’s unthinkable. And so, we must get this done. RITHOLTZ: So, let me turn this back to what’s going on in the world of venture now. When the early decades of you work at Kleiner Perkins was into a very friendly IPO market, how much does timing matter broadly, meaning, hey, if there’s an exit available, if there’s a big IPO market that makes it more likely people are going to invest in these companies and have a successful exit. Tell us a little bit about timing. DOERR: Well, investors, myself included, will stop at nothing to copy success. So, the timing of today’s markets for climate technologies whether it’s Tesla or Rivian or better batteries or Beyond Meat, it’s good and I would say in the long run, it’s going to continue to be good because the size of the markets and the need, the economic need, the opportunity, and the planetary pressures. RITHOLTZ: So, if a younger venture capitalist or a newfound venture fund came to you and ask for advice, what would you tell them about this opportunity? DOERR: There’s so many different venture firms and strategies. I would say to them that this is the greatest opportunity with 21st century that they should be strategic about their contribution. Is it to work with early-stage entrepreneurs and removing technical risks or at the other extreme, is it to be smart and sharp about project financing? But the overall costs of the transition from a dirty fossil economy to a clean new energy economy is $4 trillion per year, per year. That sounds like a big number until you compare it with the cost of dirty energy, the social cost, the disruption, the premature deaths. One in five deaths are premature due to carbon pollution. Those come in at about $10 billion per year. So, it’s literally cheaper to save the Earth than it is to ruin it. RITHOLTZ: And there’s just seems to be endless amounts of cash pouring into the venture capital sector. Arguably, it’s never been higher. What are your thoughts on this? Does it worry you? What’s the driver of all this money sloshing around? DOERR: Some people say that we’re experiencing a bubble, a bubble in fintech or Bitcoin or climate technologies. I see it very differently. I think it’s a boom and historically, whether it was the advent of transcontinental railroads or the automobiles, we saw booms which led to full employment, overinvestment, rapid innovation. And, no, not all those car companies survive. But I think the same will be true of the other fields of innovation. I think one of the things that gives me great hope is the power of human ingenuity. We got ourselves into these specs and, Barry, I’m betting, we’re going to figure our way out. RITHOLTZ: So, what do you say to people who sort of posture Silicon Valley’s best days are behind it? Do you have a response to any of those folks? DOERR: I think they’re wrong. I think provided we deal with this existential threat, the climate crisis, and that is not guaranteed, but provided we do that and we get a 50% reduction in the next decade, I think we’re on track for a wonderful, prosperous, healthy planet. RITHOLTZ: Can I tell you and I should have mentioned this earlier but I read a ton of books for the show and I found the book really quite fascinating and it’s pretty obvious to me that an engineer was behind this. There’s just a lot of great slides and charts and graphs and it’s not just all texts. Parts of it are narrative and parts of it are historical and it reminds me of a well-made slide deck. So, nice job on the book. DOERR: Well, thanks for sharing that. I want to send you a bound version of the book if you’ll email me your physical mailing address. There’s one other thing — other story I might tell you about the book. RITHOLTZ: Sure. DOERR: I was talking the other day with a reader, a mom who told me that every night, she takes two or three pages of the book and she reads them together with her daughter and then they talk about together what that means for the world her daughter is going to inherit, and I thought, wow, that’s the use of the book I never imagined and one that I’m honestly proud of. RITHOLTZ: How — it looks like this was the work of a lot of different people. How did you end up researching and writing this? DOERR: We talked to hundred different leaders in the field, policymakers, researchers, modelers, activists and from those, selected some 35 stories. We ended up with a thousand different data points that we needed to verify and collected those into 500 end notes, which are in the book. And I did it with an amazing small team of three or four on research and writing stuf. I’m an engineer as you know and so I’m not so good with words and I had the benefit of a writing team that helped make this much more readable. RITHOLTZ: Well, it shows, you can see the book is a fast read. I sat down with a bunch of stickies and highlighter and found myself just plowing through chapter after chapter. It was a relatively quick read and very easy to put down and then pick back up again. Each chapter is very distinct and you’ve really laid out a plan to prevent climate catastrophe from taking place. So, thank you for that. DOERR: One thing I want to make sure your audience know is this, they can get a free infographic, it’s a single poster-sized piece of paper that has on both sides of it all the objectives, all the key results, all the measures. And it’s reassuring for people who are fearful that there is a plan and that if we do these things, we can find a way to a habitable planet. That’s what we’ve got to do. RITHOLTZ: So, I know I only have you for a limited amount of time. Let me jump to my favorite questions that I ask all of my guests starting with tell us what you’ve been streaming these days, give us your favorite Netflix or Amazon Prime or whatever podcast you’re listening to. DOERR: So, I haven’t had time for streaming on Netflix. I’ve been doing research, reading books and papers on the climate crisis itself. But getting this word out, I’ve listened to a — I’ve started listening to a couple of new podcast, John Heilemann’s Hell & High Water … RITHOLTZ: Sure. DOERR: … and Tim Ferriss Show, both of which, I think, have a distinctive imprint from their hosts (ph). RITHOLTZ: Tell us about your mentors who helped to shape your career. DOERR: So, the biggest influence on my life was my dad Lou Doerr, an engineer, entrepreneur and hero and I’ve been blessed by a number of mentors, perhaps most notable of them, Andy Grove, and what I learned from him at Intel prompted me to write a first book called “Measure What Matters” and that tells stories of a dozen different organizations using OKRs, which is what then I applied to the climate crisis. I would tell you Al Gore is a hero of mine. He’s wonderfully resolute man who’s impassioned, effective and funny. He and I talked regularly about the climate crisis. RITHOLTZ: Tell us about some of your favorite books, what are your all-time favorites and what are you reading right now. DOERR: So, my current reading, no surprise, is largely around the climate crisis. I love Elizabeth Colbert’s “Under a White Sky” which described climate futures. And two other books are “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster” by Bill Gates, very accessible book, and a profile — a new profile of Winston Churchill called “The splendid and the Vile.” RITHOLTZ: Two good recommendations. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad who wanted to pursue a career in venture investing? DOERR: I would say to her gain experience as an entrepreneur. I’d repeat the advice that I was given early in my career which was go get a real job in a real growing tech company and sharpen your skills in the real hard world of business economics and then take that experience to help other entrepreneurs succeed. RITHOLTZ: And our final question, what do you know about the world of venture investing today that you wish you knew 40 years ago? DOERR: I wish I knew 40 years ago how important the team is, the leadership of the team, the recruiting of the team, the growing of the team because in the end, it’s more than large market, it’s more than compelling technologies. It’s teams who know how to execute well. RITHOLTZ: Really, really fascinating stuff. Thanks, John, for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with John Doerr. He is a partner at famed venture firm Kleiner Perkins and the author of the new book, “Speed and Scale: An Action Plan for Solving our Climate Crisis Now.” If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and check out all of our previous discussions. You can find those wherever you find your favorite podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Acast, wherever. We love your comments, feedback and suggestions. Write to us at mibpodcast@bloomberg.net. Sign up for my daily reads @ritholtz.com. Follow me on Twitter, @Ritholtz. I would be remiss if I do not thank our crack staff that helps with these conversations together each week, Michael Batnick is my head of research, Atika Valbrun is our project manager, Paris Wald is our producer, I’m Barry Ritholtz, you’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.   ~~~   The post Transcript: John Doerr appeared first on The Big Picture......»»

Category: blogSource: TheBigPictureDec 6th, 2021

After Sparks Fly At Bridgewater, Dalio "Clarifies" His China Comments

After Sparks Fly At Bridgewater, Dalio 'Clarifies' His China Comments Update (1440ET): Amid the shitstorm (both external in the world and internal to Bridgewater) ignited by Ray Dalio's comments on the equivalence of Communist China's human rights abuses and America, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund decided to put pen to digital paper to explain himself... well to explain that it's all our faults for misunderstanding him... Clarifying My Recent China Comments Now that things have calmed down I want to clarify what I meant when I sloppily answered a question about China from Andrew Ross Sorkin that created a misunderstanding of my views. I assure you that I didn’t mean to convey that human rights aren’t important because I certainly believe they are and I didn’t mean to convey that the US and China deal with these issues similarly because they certainly don’t. I am an American who has lived my whole life in the US, experiencing the American Dream, and I believe in our system. At the same time, I have spent more than half my life in contact with China which has helped me understand their system as well. In trying to answer Andrew's questions, I was attempting to explain what a Chinese leader told me about how they think about governing – about how Confucianism is based on the family and that extends into their governance, which is a more autocratic approach that is like a strict parent. I was not expressing my own opinion or endorsing that approach. My overriding objective is to help understanding. Understanding and agreeing are two different things, and that’s what was lost in the interview. I'm sorry my answer lacked that nuance and caused confusion. I also want to clarify how I weigh the pros and cons of investing in China in light of the human rights issue. This is not a challenge that Bridgewater alone faces. There are more than 40,000 investors and an untold numbers of banks and companies from the US and other countries facing the same issue. While commercial considerations are part of the equation, they are not paramount. It is a reality that many Americans and Chinese are intertwined, and that separating them would be terrible for just about everyone. Besides the direct functional synergies of producing things together that benefit Americans, Chinese, and the rest of the world, these connections produce mutual understandings and mutual influences that promote peace and progress globally. So, we have responsibilities to different constituencies that we have to balance, creating complex nuances for a broad number of stakeholders. In Bridgewater's case, we invest in about 40 countries, and our clients rely on us to invest in the best possible ways in all the countries that make sense from an investment standpoint. For Bridgewater, and for all of those who deal with China and many other countries, there are many other geopolitical and regulatory issues that are constantly changing and are beyond our capacity to weigh against the responsibilities we have to our clients. We want to get these things right, not just based on what we think, but, much more importantly, based on what the regulators think is right. These considerations lead us to rely most heavily on the guidance of both the US government and the governments of the countries we are in.   Having said all this, what I think and what Bridgewater does are of minuscule importance relative to the rapidly growing risk of US war with China due to misunderstandings and inclinations to fight, so I hope that thoughtful attention will be paid to that issue and that mutual understandings will increase and inclinations to fight will diminish. I have comprehensively expressed my concerns about what is happening now and the historical precedents for it in my book, so these thoughts are available to you if you care to read them. I should point out that they are not just my own – I know that speaking out publicly on these issues can be uncomfortable, and there are many like-minded thought leaders who share these views, even if they don't speak about them as openly as I do. So that's it then - we're all just too dumb to understand the nuance in his statement that clearly laid out the fact that Dalio doesn't care what China does, he has money to make. *  *  * As we detailed earlier, American attitudes towards China remain extremely mixed (and apparently stratified by 'wealth'). As we first noted some time ago, Negative views of China have increased substantially since 2018: "Today, 67% of Americans have “cold” feelings toward China on a “feeling thermometer,” rating the country less than 50 on a 0 to 100 scale. This is up from just 46% who said the same in 2018." The picture is very different on the corporate side of America with most recent examples including Jamie Dimon flip-flopping and bending the knee to Beijing about a 'joke', NBA and LeBron James ignoring Enes Kanter Freedom's warnings about Uyghur genocide, and Ray Dalio - founder of the world's largest hedge fund - who this week drew an odd equivalence between China and US when asked about investing in the communist nation amid human-rights' abuses: “I look at the United States, and I say, well, what’s going on in the United States and should I not invest in the United States” because of “our own human-rights issues, or other things?” "What they have is an autocratic system and one of the leaders described it that the U.S. is a country of individuals and individualism...in China it is an extension of the family," says @RayDalio. "As a top down country what they are doing is--they behave like a strict parent." pic.twitter.com/MNZKMdtPy2 — Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) November 30, 2021 This remark triggered both silence and outrage among the two pro/anti-China camps, and prompted Bridgewater CEO David McCormick, who also happens to be considering a US Senate run as a Republican candidate, to make it clear that he disagrees with Dalio's views. During a company-wide call, McCormick addressed the controversial remarks that Dalio had made this week on television. As Bloomberg reports citing people with knowledge of the matter, McCormick told staff he's had lots of arguments about China over the years with Dalio and that he disagrees with the billionaire's views (not that it has stopped him from investing in China, that is). The fact of the matter is that Dalio is not an idealist, but a pragmatic capitalist (who unlike so many of his Wall Street peers does not preach and moralize on the topic of China while doing precisely the opposite) and wants simply to put his capital to work in the place where it will garner the best return adjusted for risk. To him, it appears China is among those opportunities for growth - never mind the genocide, 'disappearances', totalitarianism, and increasingly weak property right. In other words, he is merely looking after his own and his investors interests. Of course,  this 'Wall Street' perspective is verboten in a world of political correctness and SWJness, which makes Dalio's public expression of 'greed uber alles' all the more notable in a world seemingly tearing itself apart over wealth inequality, income inequality, outcome inequality... and willing to virtue-signal left, right, and center in order to achieve sainthood even as the money into China keeps flowing to a record degree! As The Wall Street Journal writes, this is the sort of comment that sours Americans on Wall Street and opens executives to accusations of being “citizens of the world” before they are Americans. Mr. Dalio wants freedom to invest where he pleases, but if Wall Street titans convey contempt for America’s system of government, then voters will curtail their prerogatives through the political process. Finally, do not forget that in November, Bridgewater raised 8 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) for a new private fund in China. That brought the firm’s total onshore assets under management to more than 10 billion yuan. Meanwhile, most Wall Street firms are similarly investing aggressively in China, while turning a blind eye to China's epic human rights violations even as they continue to preach and lecture the world on what not to do in the US. Tyler Durden Sun, 12/05/2021 - 14:42.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytDec 5th, 2021

Resist the FOMO. An asset manager has created an ETF for "genuine investments" that shuns market crazes like crypto and meme stocks.

"It enables us to have a very high degree of confidence in the future," said Guy Davis, managing director at GCI Investors. Marianne Ayala/Insider A new exchange-traded fund from GCI Investors is getting back to the basics of investing.  "We are investing in underlying businesses and companies rather than just stocks," said Guy Davis. His potential losses, he said, are much lower than risking investments on meme stocks and crypto. One fund manager wants you to forget about the eye-popping gains from meme stocks and crypto and get back to the basics of investing."We sit very much at the opposite end of the spectrum to meme-stock investing," said Guy Davis, managing director at Houston, Texas-based GCI Investors. "We are investing in underlying businesses and companies rather than just stocks."Two companies he likes are UK-based online-grocery delivery company Ocado, which has rallied 545% in the past five years, and waste-management company GFL Environmental."Waste is an incredibly unsexy industry," he said. "Who would want to invest in a waste company when they can invest in a bitcoin mining company generating thousands of dollars in returns?"But he said the level of stable returns from a waste management company — even during lockdowns spurred by the pandemic — is "incredible." GFL went public in March 2020 when the pandemic was just starting. Since then, it's risen 120% to about $37. "You've got a very solid industry, and you've got something individually wonderful happening at the company that is going to boost your return on top of that. It enables us to have a very high degree of confidence in the future," he said.The firm's first exchange-traded fund, called the Genuine Investors ETF, launched December 1 under the ticker "GCIG." Waste management and grocery delivery may seem like a tough sell next to the massive gains of meme stocks like GameStop and AMC, which have gained 152% and 1,200% so far this year respectively, or the nearly 100% gain in the price of bitcoin. That's not to mention the eye-popping gains of 37,000% for some metaverse-related cryptocurrencies. But to someone who quickly became a bitcoin or meme-stock millionaire, Davis says, "Well done, fantastic news. Go and do something successful with it, because the chances of doing that again are infinitesimally small."He describes his investing approach as simplistic and old-fashioned. His Genuine Investors ETF holds 23 individual companies that the firm knows "inside and out" and that he said generally aren't subject to outside risks like regulatory whims or commodities prices."The potential returns might be slightly lower, but our potential losses are far more contained," he said. Davis said the stock market just provides opportunities, not information about companies. The S&P 500, he said, is no longer a measure of the largest companies but the "most popular" ones. Tesla, a favorite among retail traders excited about EVs and Elon Musk, is in the top five, he noted."The stock is huge; the company is tiny in terms of what it actually generates," he said.Davis said he knows what the companies he's investing in are worth, unlike bitcoin, which he said nobody "has any idea whether it's worth 50 cents or a billion dollars."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytDec 5th, 2021

34 unique and thoughtful gifts your husband will love, from stylish clothes to the latest tech

From sweet treats to items that will get him a better night's rest, these 34 gifts tell your partner how much he means to you. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Inside this curated cocktail kit, he'll find all the top-shelf spirits and ingredients he needs to bring two creative cocktail recipes to life.Saloon Box Celebrate your partner with a gift that he'll love to keep around.  Our 34 gift ideas include blue-light glasses, delicious cakes and cookies, and lounge pants. Still looking for a gift? Check out our list of the All-Time Best products we've ever tested. The holidays are a great time to splurge on a gift for your husband or partner. Whether you're looking for a gift to supplement his hobbies or something you can enjoy together, we have a wide range of ideas that he's sure to love.Whether he has a sweet tooth or needs a better night's sleep, these 34 gifts tell your partner how much he means to you. And if you have kids, some of the gifts might even benefit the whole family. The 2021 holiday shopping season is feeling the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Many manufacturers are experiencing supply-chain issues that limit their stock. Delays in shipping are also widespread. We recommend paying close attention to shipping times when ordering products to ensure they will arrive on time.Here are the best gifts for husbands in 2021A waterproof speakerJBLGift the JBL Clip 3 Portable Bluetooth Speaker, $49.95Portable Bluetooth speakers are ideal for rocking out on the go. The JBL Clip 3 is great because it's affordable and waterproof so he can listen to tunes or catch up on podcasts in the shower.For more great options, check out our guide to portable Bluetooth speakers.A high-quality electric razorBraunGift the Braun Series 7 (7085cc) Electric Razor, $149.94The Braun Series 7 is tops in our guide to the best electric razors for several reasons. It senses the thickness of his beard and automatically adjusts the power for a clean one-pass shave. The shaver has a 50-minute runtime, and it's waterproof for wet use.A GPS smartwatchJames Brains/InsiderGift the Garmin Forerunner 945 GPS Smartwatch, $599.99A good GPS fitness tracker is a must for anyone who runs outdoors. The Garmin Forerunner 945 is as good as it gets. The watch supports hundreds of apps, including Spotify, so he can stream music without having to lug around his phone. I like that I can enable the watch to send my location to my wife when I run. That way, if something happens, she can find me easily.If the 945 is out of your price range, consider one of these fitness tracker watches.A fashionable leather walletBellroyGift the Bellroy Apex Slim Sleeve Wallet, $129Bellroy's Apex Slim Sleeve isn't your dad's wallet. Made of eco-friendly leather, it fits folded bills and up to eight cards. A magnet keeps the sleeve closed. And, it features RFID protection to keep personal information safe. A snack box subscriptionTokyoTreatGift a 3-month TokyoTreat subscription, $106.50Who doesn't love snacks? If your husband is an adventurous eater, he'll love a TokyoTreat subscription. Each month, he receives 17 unique snacks from Japan, including fun KitKat flavors. Check out our guide for other snack subscription box ideas.Stylish, sustainable sneakersNothing NewGift a pair of Nothing New Sneakers, from $95What's better than giving the special eco-conscious guy in your life a stylish pair of shoes? Giving him shoes that are made from 100% post-consumer recycled plastic. With a style similar to Chuck Taylor All-Stars, Nothing New sneakers come in several colors, and each pair saves 160 gallons of water and keeps 5.6 plastic bottles out of landfills.You can read our full review of Nothing New Sneakers here.Waterproof bone-conduction sport headphonesAmazonGift the AfterShokz Aeropex Bone Conduction Sport Headphones, $129.95Any active person who likes to bring their tunes or podcasts on workouts will tell you it's hard to find comfortable headphones. This is especially true if you have unique ears. Bone conduction headphones are fabulous because they don't depend on your ear shape to provide comfortable listening. A smart-home light starter kitPhilipsGift the Philips Hue White and Color LED Smart Button Starter Kit, $275.63One of the biggest gripes many dads have around the house is, "Who left the lights on?" If your partner has a similar commitment to the environment, thrift, and complaining, a smart light kit is the way to go. If the Philips Hue Starter Kit is out of your price range, check out our guide to the best smart light bulbs for more options.A wagyu steak gift boxBlack Hawk MeatsGift a box of American Wagyu steaks, from $49Wagyu steak is prized for its high fat content, which makes it melt-in-your-mouth delicious. The gift boxes from Black Hawk Farms offer an affordable way for the meat lover in your life to experience American Wagyu. Thanks to the extensive marbling, I like that even a cheaper cut of American Wagyu comes off the grill tender, juicy, and flavorful.A portable fire pit and grillBioLiteGift the BioLite FirePit+, $187.46If your husband enjoys camping and grilling, the BioLite FirePit+ is a must-have. It features a built-in fan that allows him to adjust the heat easily and control the smoke. It's our favorite outdoor fireplace and grill because it cooks efficiently, is easy to transport, and protects you from getting a faceful of smoke.A water bottle with a built-in purification systemAmazonGift the Grayl Ultralight Water Purifier [+ Filter] Bottle, $69.95If he's a traveler or adventurer, he'll appreciate this water purifier bottle that lets him access clean drinking water no matter where he is. It doesn't just filter out sediments and chemicals like chlorine; it gets rid of 99.9% of viruses, disease-causing bacteria, and more with a purifying filter that includes positively charged ions to cling into negatively charged pathogens and activated carbon to catch chemicals.   Silicone rings that look like the real thingEnso RingsGift the Enso Rings Classic Elements Silicone Ring, $39.99Silicone rings are great alternatives to metal wedding bands for anyone with an active lifestyle, even if it's just a weekly game of golf. The silicone won't get scratched or bent out of shape, and it's sweatproof and easily washable, too. Delicious cookies and truffle ballsMilk BarGift the Milk Bar Party of Two set that includes a 6-inch B'Day Cake and 12 B'Day Cake Truffles, $75If he lives every day like it's his birthday, he'll love digging into Milk Bar's B'Day Cake Truffles and 6-inch B'Day Cake. Items are packed securely and can be shipped nationwide. There's a $15 flat rate shipping on all orders.A Disney+ subscriptionAlyssa Powell/Business InsiderSubscribe to Disney+ for $79.99/yearDisney+ gives him unlimited access to movies and shows from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and 20th Century Fox and costs $79.99 a year after a free seven-day trial. Read everything there is to know about Disney+ here.And if he needs some binge-spiration, here are all the new movies available to stream.A convenient way for him to discover new productsBirchbox InstagramGift a Birchbox Grooming 3-Month Subscription Gift Card, $45If he doesn't have the time and energy to hunt down new skincare and hair-care products, hand him over to Birchbox. The service will send him five samples catered to his hair, skin, and personal style every month. Breathable, supportive golf socksBombasGift the Bombas Performance Golf Ankle Sock 3-Pack, $49.50Little details, like the mesh under-toe ventilation zone, will make him appreciate these performance socks specially designed to up his golf game. Would it be extreme to attribute his birdie to Bombas? A gift card from one of our favorite activewear brandsRhoneGift a Rhone Gift Card, from $20Rhone makes some of our favorite workout gear for both inside and outside of the gym. Plus, the e-gift card is immediately sent upon purchase, so there's no need to wait for shipping. A vinyl record subscriptionVNYL InstagramGift a Vnyl subscription, from $29Vnyl's curators look at his music tastes, member profile, and Spotify playlists to send three records he'll want to dive into immediately. The included handwritten note explaining the suggestions makes the experience feel more like he's stepped into a record store. A sleek portable charger for his laptop and phoneAmazonGift the Anker PowerCore+ 26800 PD 45W, $159.99 If he travels often, he's probably taking along all his tech — laptop, phone, e-reader, and more. All those gadgets have their own chargers, which can be frustrating to keep track of and take up space in his luggage, too. Anker's device can help him streamline and replace a few of the major chargers. It's a portable battery pack with enough power to charge a laptop and comes with a wall charger and USB-C to C cable so it can replace most, if not all, of his other cords and cables. Silky soft lounge pants that fit like a second skinTommy JohnGift a pair of Tommy John Lounge Pants, from $58The brand's beloved lounge pants are delightfully airy, stretchy, and soft. Matching underwear in a fun printMeUndies InstagramGift a matching set of MeUndies Matching Underwear, from $42Choose your favorite underwear cuts (over 15 options), then go on to the fun part. Find a print so the two of you can match. MeUndies offers solid colors, but we love the adventurous, cartoon-splashed prints more. The actual underwear is very comfortable and soft.A mini cast iron skilletField Company InstagramGift the Field #4 Cast Iron Skillet, $95The smallest version of Field Company's lightweight and smooth vintage-style cast iron is the perfect size for cooking small sides. Cookies that look like himEtsyGift the Custom Portrait Cookie Cutters from Etsy, from $30Having his likeness recreated on these delicious cookies is a gift he'll never forget. Make sure to take a side-by-side photo before he eats them all. A protective spray that keeps his shoes shiny and newAmazonGift the Jason Markk Repel Spray, $17If he loves shoes, he should have the right products to take care of his favorite footwear. This spray protects shoes from water and oil stains, and there are multiple people on our team who swear by it for every new pair of shoes they get. Creatively sentimental cufflinksLove LetterGift Uncommon Goods' Love Letter Cufflinks, from $80The tiny envelopes open up to reveal a small and thoughtful reminder. You can replace it and surprise him with your own sweet message, too.Vitamin-infused body washNecessaire InstagramGift the Necessaire Body Wash, $25Gender-neutral personal care brand Necessaire treats the body with clean, sustainable ingredients and vitamins. He'll love using the Eucalyptus or Sandalwood body washes to nourish his skin without stripping it of moisture. Glasses to reduce eye fatigueFelix Gray InstagramGift a pair of Felix Gray Sleep Glasses, from $145The blue light that comes off our screens affects sleep, so gift him these blue-light-blocking glasses. His eyes won't feel as tired or dry, and he might have an easier time drifting off to sleep. A framed photoMintedGift the Minted Best Dad Ever Frame, from $94.50You can never go wrong with a photo of the family framed by handcrafted wood or metal. The metallic foil gives it a special touch. Dress clothes that fit him perfectlySpier and MackayGift a Spier & MacKay Gift Card, from $50He can get custom-fit suits for surprisingly affordable prices from Canadian startup Spier & Mackay. Insider Reviews reporter Amir Ismael calls it the best choice "if you're having a treat-yourself moment or you need a shirt for a special occasion."A 15-pound weighted blanketJen Gushue/InsiderGift the Brooklinen Weighted Comforter, from $211.65This heavy weighted blanket will ease him to sleep after a long day, thanks to its comforting embrace. If this option doesn't feel quite right, check out our guide to the best weighted blankets.A new electric toothbrushQuipGift the Quip Electric Toothbrush, from $25With Quip's sleek metallic styles, this toothbrush is both a pretty and thoughtful gift. Because he'll always have a new brush head on the way via its subscription, you're also taking one more chore off his plate.A curated cocktail kitInside this curated cocktail kit, he'll find all the top-shelf spirits and ingredients he needs to bring two creative cocktail recipes to life.Saloon BoxGift a SaloonBox Cocktail Kit Box, $172.99Inside he'll find all the top-shelf spirits and ingredients he needs to bring two creative cocktail recipes to life. Rather than regret all the money spent on ingredients he'll only use once, he can refocus his energy to enjoying his boozy creation. A cool phone case and phone grip accessoryAmazonGift a Scooch Wingman Phone Case, $39.99It's a multi-talented force the likes of which the phone accessory world has never seen before — a grip, stand, car mount, and phone case, all in one convenient and sturdy package. Learn more about why we love it in our Scooch Wingman review.A staycationAirbnb/FacebookBook a unique online experience at Airbnb, price variesA staycation is a good excuse to get away from the kids for the weekend and reset, all while staying in your home. It'll help him appreciate a familiar place in a new light, and he'll return to his day-to-day with renewed energy and vigor. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 1st, 2021