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Laster Tech January-September shipments meet 50-60% of orders due to component shortage

LED automotive lighting module maker Laster Tech had shipments in the first three quarters of 2021 fulfilling only 50-60% of the corresponding orders due to the short supply of semiconductor components, according to the company......»»

Category: topSource: digitimesDec 4th, 2021

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report For the second day in a row, an overnight slump in equity futures sparked by concerns about iPhone sales (with Bloomberg reporting at the close on Tuesday that iPhone 13 production target may be cut by 10mm units due to chip shortages) and driven be more weakness out of China was rescued thanks to aggressive buying around the European open. At 800 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.50 points, or 0.4% ahead of the CPI report due at 830am ET. 10Y yields dipped to 1.566%, the dollar was lower and Brent crude dropped below $83. JPMorgan rose as much as 0.8% in premarket trading after the firm’s merger advisory business reported its best quarterly profit. On the other end, Apple dropped 1% lower in premarket trading, a day after Bloomberg reported that the technology giant is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to prolonged chip shortages. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Suppliers Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US), Qorvo (ORVO) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS US) slipped Tuesday postmarket Koss (KOSS US) shares jump 23% in U.S. premarket trading in an extension of Tuesday’s surge after tech giant Apple was rebuffed in two patent challenges against the headphones and speakers firm Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares were up 2.7% in U.S. premarket trading after it announced a $10.0 billion stock buyback International Paper (IP US) in focus after its board authorized a program to acquire up to $2b of the company’s common stock; cut quarterly dividend by 5c per share Smart Global (SGH US) shares rose 2% Tuesday postmarket after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Wayfair (W US) shares slide 1.8% in thin premarket trading after the stock gets tactical downgrade to hold at Jefferies Plug Power (PLUG US) gains 4.9% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley upgrades the fuel cell systems company to overweight, saying in note that it’s “particularly well positioned” to be a leader in the hydrogen economy Wall Street ended lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors grew jittery in the run-up to earnings amid worries about supply chain problems and higher prices affecting businesses emerging from the pandemic. As we noted last night, the S&P 500 has gone 27 straight days without rallying to a fresh high, the longest such stretch since last September, signaling some fatigue in the dip-buying that pushed the market up from drops earlier this year. Focus now turn to inflation data, due at 0830 a.m. ET, which will cement the imminent arrival of the Fed's taper.  "A strong inflation will only reinforce the expectation that the Fed would start tapering its bond purchases by next month, that's already priced in," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "Yet, a too strong figure could boost expectations of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and that is not necessarily fully priced in." The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, due later in the day, will also be scrutinized for signals that the days of crisis-era policy were numbered. Most European equities reverse small opening losses and were last up about 0.5%, as news that German software giant SAP increased its revenue forecast led tech stocks higher. DAX gained 0.7% with tech, retail and travel names leading. FTSE 100, FTSE MIB and IBEX remained in the red. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entra shares gain as much as 10% after Balder increases its stake and says it intends to submit a mandatory offer. Spie jumps as much as 10%, the biggest intraday gain in more than a year, after the French company pulled out of the process to buy Engie’s Equans services unit. Man Group rises as much as 8.3% after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund announced quarterly record inflows. 3Q21 net inflows were a “clear beat” and confirm pipeline strength, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Barratt Developments climbs as much as 6.3%, with analysts saying the U.K. homebuilder’s update shows current trading is improving. Recticel climbs 15% to its highest level in more than 20 years as the stock resumes trading after the company announced plans to sell its foams unit to Carpenter Co. Bossard Holding rises as much as 9.1% to a record high after the company reported 3Q earnings that ZKB said show strong growth. Sartorius gains as much as 5.9% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to hold from sell and raises its price target, saying it expects “impressive earnings growth” to continue for the lab equipment company. SAP jumps as much as 5% after the German software giant increased its revenue forecast owing to accelerating cloud sales. Just Eat Takeaway slides as much as 5.8% in Amsterdam to the lowest since March 2020 after a 3Q trading update. Analysts flagged disappointing orders as pandemic restrictions eased, and an underwhelming performance in the online food delivery firm’s U.S. market. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks posted a modest advance as investors awaited key inflation data out of the U.S. and Hong Kong closed its equity market because of typhoon Kompasu. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after fluctuating between gains and losses, with chip and electronics manufacturers sliding amid concerns over memory chip supply-chain issues and Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets. Hong Kong’s $6.3 trillion market was shut as strong winds and rain hit the financial hub.  “Broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Katy L. Huberty wrote in a note. The most significant iPhone production bottleneck stems from a “shortage of camera modules for the iPhone 13 Pro/Pro Max due to low utilization rates at a Sharp factory in southern Vietnam,” they added. Wednesday’s direction-less trading illustrated the uncertainty in Asian markets as traders reassess earnings forecasts to factor in inflation and supply chain concerns. U.S. consumer price index figures and FOMC minutes due overnight may move shares. Southeast Asian indexes rose thanks to their cyclical exposure. Singapore’s stock gauge was the top performer in the region, rising to its highest in about two months, before the the nation’s central bank decides on monetary policy on Thursday. Japanese stocks fell for a second day as electronics makers declined amid worries about memory chip supply-chain issues and concerns over Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets.  The Topix index fell 0.4% to 1,973.83 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.3% to 28,140.28. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 608 rose and 1,489 fell, while 84 were unchanged. Japanese Apple suppliers such as TDK, Murata and Taiyo Yuden slid. The U.S. company is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units as prolonged chip shortages hit its flagship product, according to people with knowledge of the matter Australian stocks closed lower as banks and miners weighed on the index. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,272.50, dragged down by banks and miners as iron ore extended its decline. All other subgauges edged higher. a2 Milk surged after its peer Bubs Australia reported growing China sales and pointed to a better outlook for daigou channels. Bank of Queensland tumbled after its earnings release. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 13,025.18. In rates, Treasuries extended Tuesday’s bull-flattening gains, led by gilts and, to a lesser extent, bunds. Treasuries were richer by ~2bps across the long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s by about that much; U.K. 30-year yield is down nearly 7bp, with same curve flatter by ~6bp. Long-end gilts outperform in a broad-based bull flattening move that pushed 30y gilt yields down ~7bps back near 1.38%. Peripheral spreads widen slightly to Germany. Cash USTs bull flatten but trade cheaper by ~2bps across the back end to both bunds and gilt ahead of today’s CPI release. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.2% and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers; the Treasury curve flattened, mainly via falling yields in the long- end, The euro advanced to trade at around $1.1550 and the Bund yield curve flattened, with German bonds outperforming Treasuries. The euro’s volatility skew versus the dollar shows investors remain bearish the common currency as policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains for now. The pound advanced with traders shrugging off the U.K.’s weaker-than-expected economic growth performance in August. Australia’s sovereign yield curve flattened for a second day while the currency underperformed its New Zealand peer amid a drop in iron ore prices. The yen steadied after four days of declines. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range with WTI near $80, Brent dipping slightly below $83. Spot gold pops back toward Tuesday’s best levels near $1,770/oz. Base metals are in the green with most of the complex up at least 1%. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,346.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.04 MXAP up 0.2% to 194.60 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 638.16 Nikkei down 0.3% to 28,140.28 Topix down 0.4% to 1,973.83 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,561.76 Sensex up 0.8% to 60,782.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,272.54 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,944.41 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,768.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 94.30 German 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to -0.127% Euro little changed at $1.1553 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Vladimir Putin wants to press the EU to rewrite some of the rules of its gas market after years of ignoring Moscow’s concerns, to tilt them away from spot-pricing toward long-term contracts favored by Russia’s state run Gazprom, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Russia is also seeking rapid certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany to boost gas deliveries, they said. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street lenders after his title officially expires this week. The EU will offer a new package of concessions to the U.K. that would ease trade barriers in Northern Ireland, as the two sides prepare for a new round of contentious Brexit negotiations. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is on course to raise taxes and cut spending to control the budget deficit, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has warned interest rates are likely to rise in the coming months to curb a rapid surge in prices. Together, those moves would mark a simultaneous major tightening of both policy levers just months after the biggest recession in a century -- an unprecedented move since the BoE gained independence in 1997. Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, was charged with bribery in Slovakia. Kazimir, who heads the country’s central bank, rejected the allegations A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside with global risk appetite cautious amid the rate hike bets in US and heading into key events including US CPI and FOMC Minutes, while there were also mild headwinds for US equity futures after the closing bell on reports that Apple is set to reduce output of iPhones by 10mln from what was initially planned amid the chip shortage. ASX 200 (unch.) was little changed as gains in gold miners, energy and tech were offset by losses in financials and the broader mining sector, with softer Westpac Consumer Confidence also limiting upside in the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was pressured at the open as participants digested mixed Machinery Orders data which showed the largest M/M contraction since February 2018 and prompted the government to cut its assessment on machinery orders, although the benchmark index gradually retraced most its losses after finding support around the 28k level and amid the recent favourable currency moves. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) also declined as participants digested mixed Chinese trade data in which exports topped estimates but imports disappointed and with Hong Kong markets kept shut due to a typhoon warning. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with price action contained after the curve flattening stateside and tentative mood heading to upcoming risk events, although prices were kept afloat amid the BoJ’s purchases in the market for around JPY 1tln of JGBs predominantly focused on 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Gold Edges Higher on Weaker Dollar Before U.S. Inflation Report RBA Rate Hike Expectations Too Aggressive, TD Ameritrade Says LG Electronics Has Series of Stock-Target Cuts After Profit Miss The mood across European stocks has improved from the subdued cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) despite a distinct lack of newsflow and heading into the official start of US earnings season, US CPI and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and trade in modest positive territory across the board, with the NQ (+0.5%) narrowly outperforming owing to the intraday fall in yields, alongside the sectorial outperformance seen in European tech amid tech giant SAP (+4.7%) upgrading its full FY outlook, reflecting the strong business performance which is expected to continue to accelerate cloud revenue growth. As such, the DAX 40 (+0.7%) outperformed since the cash open, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is weighed on by underperformance in its heavyweight Banking and Basic Resources sectors amid a decline in yields and hefty losses in iron ore prices. Elsewhere, the CAC 40 (+0.3%) is buoyed by LMVH (+2.0%) after the luxury name topped revenue forecasts and subsequently lifted the Retail sector in tandem. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear bias. In terms of individual movers, Volkswagen (+3.5%) was bolstered amid Handelsblatt reports in which the Co was said to be cutting some 30k jobs as costs are too high vs competitors, whilst separate sources suggested the automaker is said to be mulling spinning off its Battery Cell and charging unit. Chipmakers meanwhile see mixed fortunes in the aftermath of sources which suggested Apple (-0.7% pre-market) is said to be slashing output amid the chip crunch. Top European News The Hut Shares Swing as Strategy Day Feeds Investor Concern U.K. Economy Grows Less Than Expected as Services Disappoint Man Group Gets $5.3 Billion to Lift Assets to Another Record Jeff Ubben and Singapore’s GIC Back $830 Million Fertiglobe IPO In FX, the Dollar looks somewhat deflated or jaded after yesterday’s exertions when it carved out several fresh 2021 highs against rival currencies and a new record peak vs the increasingly beleaguered Turkish Lira. In index terms, a bout of profit taking, consolidation and position paring seems to have prompted a pull-back from 94.563 into a marginally lower 94.533-246 range awaiting potentially pivotal US inflation data, more Fed rhetoric and FOMC minutes from the last policy meeting that may provide more clues or clarity about prospects for near term tapering. NZD/GBP - Both taking advantage of the Greenback’s aforementioned loss of momentum, but also deriving impetus from favourable crosswinds closer to home as the Kiwi briefly revisited 0.6950+ terrain and Aud/Nzd retreats quite sharply from 1.0600+, while Cable has rebounded through 1.3600 again as Eur/Gbp retests support south of 0.8480 yet again, or 1.1800 as a reciprocal. From a fundamental perspective, Nzd/Usd may also be gleaning leverage from the more forward-looking Activity Outlook component of ANZ’s preliminary business survey for October rather than a decline in sentiment, and Sterling could be content with reported concessions from the EU on NI customs in an effort to resolve the Protocol impasse. EUR/CAD/AUD/CHF - Also reclaiming some lost ground against the Buck, with the Euro rebounding from around 1.1525 to circa 1.1560, though not technically stable until closer to 1.1600 having faded ahead of the round number on several occasions in the last week. Meanwhile, the Loonie is straddling 1.2450 in keeping with WTI crude on the Usd 80/brl handle, the Aussie is pivoting 0.7350, but capped in wake of a dip in Westpac consumer confidence, and the Franc is rotating either side of 0.9300. JPY - The Yen seems rather reluctant to get too carried away by the Dollar’s demise or join the broad retracement given so many false dawns of late before further depreciation and a continuation of its losing streak. Indeed, the latest recovery has stalled around 113.35 and Usd/Jpy appears firmly underpinned following significantly weaker than expected Japanese m/m machinery orders overnight. SCANDI/EM - Not much upside in the Sek via firmer Swedish money market inflation expectations and perhaps due to the fact that actual CPI data preceded the latest survey and topped consensus, but the Cnh and Cny are firmer on the back of China’s much wider than forecast trade surplus that was bloated by exports exceeding estimates by some distance in contrast to imports. Elsewhere, further hawkish guidance for the Czk as CNB’s Benda contends that high inflation warrants relatively rapid tightening, but the Try has not derived a lot of support from reports that Turkey is in talks to secure extra gas supplies to meet demand this winter, according to a Minister, and perhaps due to more sabre-rattling from the Foreign Ministry over Syria with accusations aimed at the US and Russia. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures see another choppy session within recent and elevated levels – with the former around USD 80.50/bbl (80.79-79.87/bbl) and the latter around 83.35/bbl (83.50-82.65/bbl range). The complex saw some downside in conjunction with jawboning from the Iraqi Energy Minster, who state oil price is unlikely to increase further, whilst at the same time, the Gazprom CEO suggested that the oil market is overheated. Nonetheless, prices saw a rebound from those lows heading into the US inflation figure, whilst the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for 12:00BST/07:00EDT. Although the release will not likely sway prices amidst the myriad of risk events on the docket, it will offer a peek into OPEC's current thinking on the market. As a reminder, the weekly Private Inventory report will be released tonight, with the DoE's slated for tomorrow on account of Monday's Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices, meanwhile, are relatively stable. Russia's Kremlin noted gas supplies have increased to their maximum possible levels, whilst Gazprom is sticking to its contractual obligations, and there can be no gas supplies beyond those obligations. Over to metals, spot gold and silver move in tandem with the receding Buck, with spot gold inching closer towards its 50 DMA at 1,776/oz (vs low 1,759.50/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper has regained a footing above USD 9,500/t as stocks grind higher. Conversely, iron ore and rebar futures overnight fell some 6%, with overnight headlines suggesting that China has required steel mills to cut winter output. Further from the supply side, Nyrstar is to limit European smelter output by up to 50% due to energy costs. Nyrstar has a market-leading position in zinc and lead. LME zinc hit the highest levels since March 2018 following the headlines US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 5.3%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Sept. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.9%, revised -1.4% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap So tonight it’s my first ever “live” parents evening and then James Bond via Wagamama. Given my daughter (6) is the eldest in her year and the twins (4) the youngest (plus additional youth for being premature), I’m expecting my daughter to be at least above average but for my boys to only just about be vaguely aware of what’s going on around them. Poor things. For those reading yesterday, the Cameo video of Nadia Comanenci went down a storm, especially when she mentioned our kids’ names, but the fact that there was no birthday cake wasn’t as popular. So I played a very complicated, defence splitting 80 yard through ball but missed an open goal. Anyway ahead of Bond tonight, with all this inflation about I’m half expecting him to be known as 008 going forward. The next installment of the US prices saga will be seen today with US CPI at 13:30 London time. This is an important one, since it’s the last CPI number the Fed will have ahead of their next policy decision just 3 weeks from now, where investors are awaiting a potential announcement on tapering asset purchases. Interestingly the August reading last month was the first time so far this year that the month-on-month measure was actually beneath the consensus expectation on Bloomberg, with the +0.3% growth being the slowest since January. Famous last words but this report might not be the most interesting since it may be a bit backward looking given WTI oil is up c.7.5% in October alone. In addition, used cars were up +5.4% in September after falling in late summer. So given the 2-3 month lag for this to filter through into the CPI we won’t be getting the full picture today. I loved the fact from his speech last night that the Fed’s Bostic has introduced a “transitory” swear jar in his office. More on the Fedspeak later. In terms of what to expect this time around though, our US economists are forecasting month-on-month growth of +0.41% in the headline CPI, and +0.27% for core, which would take the year-on-year rates to +5.4% for headline and +4.1% for core. Ahead of this, inflation expectations softened late in the day as Fed officials were on the hawkish side. The US 10yr breakeven dropped -1.9bps to 2.49% after trading at 2.527% earlier in the session. This is still the 3rd highest closing level since May, and remains only 7bps off its post-2013 closing high. Earlier, inflation expectations continued to climb in Europe, where the 5y5y forward inflation swap hit a post-2015 high of 1.84%. Also on inflation, the New York Fed released their latest Survey of Consumer Expectations later in the European session, which showed that 1-year ahead inflation expectations were now at +5.3%, which is the highest level since the survey began in 2013, whilst 3-year ahead expectations were now at +4.2%, which was also a high for the series. The late rally in US breakevens, coupled with lower real yields (-1.6bps) meant that the 10yr Treasury yield ended the session down -3.5bps at 1.577% - their biggest one day drop in just over 3 weeks. There was a decent flattening of the yield curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to 0.34%, its highest level since the pandemic began as the market priced in more near-term Fed rate hikes. In the Euro Area it was a very different story however, with 10yr yields rising to their highest level in months, including among bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+1.0bps). That rise in the 10yr bund yield left it at -0.09%, taking it above its recent peak earlier this year to its highest closing level since May 2019. Interestingly gilts (-4.0bps) massively out-performed after having aggressively sold off for the last week or so. Against this backdrop, equity markets struggled for direction as they awaited the CPI reading and the start of the US Q3 earnings season today. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (-0.24%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) had both posted modest losses as they awaited the next catalyst. Defensive sectors were the outperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. Real estate (+1.34%) and utilities (+0.67%) were among the best performing US stocks, though some notable “reopening” industries outperformed as well including airlines (+0.83%), hotels & leisure (+0.51%). News came out after the US close regarding the global chip shortage, with Bloomberg reporting that Apple, who are one of the largest buyers of chips, would revise down their iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by 10 million units. Recent rumblings from chip producers suggest that the problems are expected to persist, which will make central bank decisions even more complicated over the coming weeks as they grapple with increasing supply-side constraints that push up inflation whilst threatening to undermine the recovery. Speaking of central bankers, Vice Chair Clarida echoed his previous remarks and other communications from the so-called “core” of the FOMC that the current bout of inflation would prove largely transitory and that underlying trend inflation was hovering close to 2%, while admitting that risks were tilted towards higher inflation. Atlanta Fed President Bostic took a much harder line though, noting that price pressures were expanding beyond the pandemic-impacted sectors, and measures of inflation expectations were creeping higher. Specifically, he said, “it is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures — mainly the intense and widespread supply-chain disruptions — will not be brief.” His ‘transitory swear word jar’ for his office was considerably more full by the end of his speech. As highlighted above, while President Bostic spoke US 10yr breakevens dropped -2bps and then continued declining through the New York afternoon. In what is likely to be Clarida’s last consequential decision on monetary policy before his term expires, he noted it may soon be time to start a tapering program that ends in the middle of next year, in line with our US economics team’s call for a November taper announcement. In that vein, our US economists have updated their forecasts for rate hikes yesterday, and now see liftoff taking place in December 2022, followed by 3 rate increases in each of 2023 and 2024. That comes in light of supply disruptions lifting inflation, a likely rise in inflation expectations (which are sensitive to oil prices), and measures of labour market slack continuing to outperform. For those interested, you can read a more in-depth discussion of this here. Turning to commodities, yesterday saw a stabilisation in prices after the rapid gains on Monday, with WTI (+0.15%) and Brent Crude (-0.27%) oil prices seeing only modest movements either way, whilst iron ore prices in Singapore were down -3.45%. That said it wasn’t entirely bad news for the asset class, with Chinese coal futures (+4.45%) hitting fresh records, just as aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (+0.13%) eked out another gain to hit a new post-2008 high. Overnight in Asia, equity markets are seeing a mixed performance with the KOSPI (+1.24%) posting decent gains, whereas the CSI (-0.06%), Nikkei (-0.22%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) have all lost ground. The KOSPI’s strength came about on the back of a decent jobs report, with South Korea adding +671k relative to a year earlier, the most since March 2014. The Hong Kong Exchange is closed however due to the impact of typhoon Kompasu. Separately, coal futures in China are up another +8.00% this morning, so no sign of those price pressures abating just yet following recent floods. Meanwhile, US equity futures are pointing to little change later on, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Here in Europe, we had some fresh Brexit headlines after the UK’s Brexit minister, David Frost, said that the Northern Ireland Protocol “is not working” and was not protecting the Good Friday Agreement. He said that he was sharing a new amended Protocol with the EU, which comes ahead of the release of the EU’s own proposals on the issue today. But Frost also said that “if we are going to get a solution we must, collectively, deliver significant change”, and that Article 16 which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures could be used “if necessary”. Elsewhere yesterday, the IMF marginally downgraded their global growth forecast for this year, now seeing +5.9% growth in 2021 (vs. +6.0% in July), whilst their 2022 forecast was maintained at +4.9%. This masked some serious differences between countries however, with the US downgraded to +6.0% in 2021 (vs. +7.0% in July), whereas Italy’s was upgraded to +5.8% (vs. +4.9% in July). On inflation they said that risks were skewed to the upside, and upgraded their forecasts for the advanced economies to +2.8% in 2021, and to +2.3% in 2022. Looking at yesterday’s data, US job openings declined in August for the first time this year, falling to 10.439m (vs. 10.954m expected). But the quits rate hit a record of 2.9%, well above its pre-Covid levels of 2.3-2.4%. Here in the UK, data showed the number of payroll employees rose by +207k in September, while the unemployment rate for the three months to August fell to 4.5%, in line with expectations. And in a further sign of supply-side issues, the number of job vacancies in the three months to September hit a record high of 1.102m. Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey results came in beneath expectations, with the current situation declining to 21.6 (vs. 28.0 expected), whilst expectations fell to 22.3 (vs. 23.5 expected), its lowest level since March 2020. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

In Deep Ship: What"s Really Driving The Supply-Chain Crisis

In Deep Ship: What's Really Driving The Supply-Chain Crisis By Michael Every and Matteo Iagatti of Rabobank Summary It is impossible to ignore the current shipping crisis and its impact on global supply chains  A common view is that this is all the result of Covid-19. Yet while Covid has played a key role, it is only part of a far larger interconnected set of problems This report examines current shipping market dynamics; overlooked “Too Big to Sail” structural issues; a brewing political tsunami as a backlash; possible Cold War icebergs ahead; and the ‘ship of things to come’ if maritime past is a guide to maritime future  The central argument is that while central banks and governments both insist inflation is transitory and will fall once supply-chain bottlenecks are resolved, shipping dynamics suggest they are closer to becoming systemically entrenched Moreover, both historical and current trends towards addressing such problems suggest potential global market disruptions at least equal to the shocks we have already experienced. Many ports will get caught in this storm, if so Ready to ship off? It is impossible to ignore the current shipping crisis and its impact on global supply chains and economies. Businesses face huge headaches as supply dries up. Consumers see bare shelves and rising prices. Governments have no concrete solutions – save the army? Economists have to discuss the physical economy rather than a model. Central banks still assume this will all resolve itself. And shippers make massive profits. The giant Ever Given, which blocked the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021, is emblematic of these problems, but they run far deeper. This report will explore the shipping issue coast-to-coast, and past-to-present in six ‘containers’: “Are you shipping me?”, a deep-dive into market dynamics and supply-demand causes of soaring shipping prices; “To Big to Sail”, a key structural issue driving things; “Tsunami of politics” of the looming backlash to what is happening; “Cold War icebergs” of fat geopolitical tail risks; “Ship of things to come?”, asking if the maritime past is a potential guide to maritime future; and “Wait and sea?”, a strategic overview and conclusion. Are You Shipping Me? Since 2020, global shipping has been frenetic, with equally frenetic shipping rates (figure 2); difficulties for both businesses and consumers; and container-carrier profits. Is Covid-19 driving these developments, or are there other structural and cyclical factors at play? Let’s take stock. One root of the problem… In 2020, COVID-19 become a global pandemic, and lockdowns ensued: factories, restaurants, and shops all closed, bringing global supply chain almost to a halt. In this context, container carriers had no visibility on future demand and did the only reasonable thing: cut capacity. There is no economic sense in moving half-empty ships across the globe; it is costly, especially for a sector operated on tiny margins for a very long time. The consequence was widespread vessel cancellations, which soared in the first months of 2020 (figure 3). Progressively, more trade lines and ports were involved as containment measures were enacted globally. By H2-2020, virus containment measures were over in China, and many other nations eased them too. Shipping cancellations did not stop, however, just continuing at a slower pace. Indeed, capacity cuts have plagued supply-chains in 2021. Excluding the January-February peaks, from March to September 2021, an average of 9.2 vessels per week were cancelled, four vessels per week more than the previous off-peak period of July to December 2020 (figure 3). Cumulative cancellations (figure 4) underline the problems. Transpacific (e.g., China-US) and Asia-Northern Europe lines saw the largest capacity cuts, but Transatlantic and Mediterranean-North America vessels also reached historic levels of cancellations. Transpacific and Asia-Europe lines are the backbone of global trade, each representing 40% of the total container trade. More than 3 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units, a standard cargo measure) are moved on Transpacific and Asia-Europe lines in total per month. Due to cancellations, more than 10% of that capacity was lost in early 2020. In such a context, it was only normal to expect a rise in container rates. Over January-December 2020 the Global Baltic index (the world reference for box prices) increased by 115% from $1,460 to $3,140/TEU. However, as figure 2 shows, things then changed dramatically in 2021 for a variety of reasons. As can be seen (figure 5), cancellations alone cannot explain the price surge seen in the Baltic Dry Index -- the leading international Freight Rate Index, providing market rates for 12 global trade lines-- and on key global shipping routes (figure 6). So what did? We have instead identified five key themes that have pushed up shipping costs, which we will explore in turn: Suez – and what happened there; Sickness – or Covid-19 (again); Structure – of the shipping market; Stimulus – most so in the US; and “Stuck” – as in logistical congestion. Suez On March 23rd 2021, a 20,000TEU giant vessel, the Ever Given, owned by the Taiwanese carrier Evergreen, was forced by strong winds to park sideways in the Suez Canal, ultimately obstructing it. For the following six days, one of the fundamental arteries of trade between Europe, the Gulf, East Africa, the Indian Ocean, and South East Asia was closed for business. While the world realized how fragile globalized supply chains are, carriers and shippers were counting the costs. 370 ships could not pass the Canal, with cargoes worth around $9.5bn. Every conceivable good was on those ships. The result was more unforeseen delays, more congestions and, of course, more upward pressure on container rates. Sickness New COVID-19 Delta variant outbreaks in 20201 forced the closure of major Chinese ports such as Ningbo and Yantian causing delays and congestion that reverberated both in the region and globally. Vietnamese ports also suffered similar incidents. These closures, while not decisive blows, contributed to taking shipping capacity off the global grid, hindering the recovery trend. They were also signals of how thin the ice is that global supply chain are walking on. Indeed, Chinese and South-east Asian ports are still suffering the consequences of those earlier closures, with record queues of ships waiting to unload. Structure When external shocks cause price spikes it is always wise to look at structure of the sector in which disruption caused the price spike. This exercise provides precious hints on what the “descent” from the spike might look like. Crucially, in the shipping sector, consolidation and concentration has achieved levels that few other sectors of the economy reach. In the last five years, carriers controlling 80% of global capacity became more concentrated, with fewer operators of even larger size (figure 7). However, this is just the most obvious piece of the puzzle. In our opinion, the real change started in 2017, when the three main container alliances (2M, THE, and Ocean) were born. This changed horizontal cooperation between market leaders in shipping. The three do not fix prices, but via their networks capacity is shared and planned jointly, fully exploiting economies of scale that are decisive to making a capital-intensive business profitable and efficient. Unit margins can stay low as long as you move huge volume with high precision, and at the lowest cost possible. To be able to move the huge volumes required by a globalized and increasingly e-commerce economy at the levels of efficiency and speed demanded by operators up and down supply chains, there was little other options than to cooperate and keep goods flowing for the lowest cost possible at the highest speed possible. A tight discipline of cost was imposed on carriers, who also had to get bigger. This strategy more than paid off in the Covid crisis, when shippers demonstrated clear minds, efficiency in implementing capacity control, and a key understanding of the elements they could use to their advantage: in other words – how capitalism actually works. Carriers did not decide on the lockdowns or port closures; but they exploited their position in the global market when the pandemic erupted. In a recent report, Peter Sands from BIMCO (the Baltic and International Maritime Council) put it as follows: “Years of low freight rates resulting in rigorous cost-cutting by carriers have left them in a great position to maximise profits now that the market has turned.” Crucially, this market structure is here to stay - for now. It is a component of the global system. Carriers will continue to exert pressure and find ways to make profit but, most importantly, they will make more than sure that, this time, it is not only them that end up paying the costs of rebalancing within the global system. In short, the current market allows carriers to make historic levels of profits. However, in our view this is not the end of the story – as shall be shown later. Stimulus 2020 and 2021 saw unprecedented economic shocks from Covid-19, as well as unprecedented economic stimulus from some governments. In particular, the US government sent out direct stimulus cheques to taxpayers. With few services to spend the money on, it was instead centred on goods. Hence, consumer demand for some items is red-hot (figures 8-10). The consequences of this surge in buying on top of a workforce still partly in rolling lockdowns, and against a backlog of infrastructure decades in the making, was obvious: logistical gridlock. Moreover, with the US importing high volumes, and not exporting to match, and its own internal logistics log-jammed, there has been a build-up of shipping containers inside the US, and a shortage elsewhere. Shippers are, in some cases, even dropping their cargo and returning to Asia empty: the same has been reported in Australia. Against this backdrop, the US is perhaps close to introducing further major fiscal stimulus, with little of this able to address near-term infrastructure/logistical shortfalls. Needless to say, the impact on shipping, if such stimulus is passed, could be enormous. As such, while central banks and governments still insist that inflation is transitory, supply-chain dynamics suggest it is in fact closer to becoming systemically entrenched. Stuck In normal times, a surge in consumer spending would be a bonanza for everyone: raw material producers, manufacturers, carriers, shippers, and retailers alike. In Covid times, this is all a death-blow to global supply chains. Due to misplaced global capacity, high export volumes cannot be moved fast enough, intermediate goods cannot reach processors in time, and everybody is fighting to get a container spot on the ships available. Ports cannot handle the throughput given the backlog of containers that are still waiting to be shipped inland or loaded on a delayed boat. It is not by chance that congestion hit record peaks at the same time in Los Angeles – Long beach (LALB), and in the main ports in China, the two main poles of transpacific trade. Clearly, LALB cannot handle the surge in imports, the arrival queue keeps on growing by the day (figure 11). There are now plans to shift to working 24/7. However, critics note that all this would do is to shift containers from ships to clog other already backlogged areas of the port, potentially reducing efficiency even further. Meanwhile, in Shanghai and Ningbo there were also 154 ships waiting to unload at time of writing. The power-cuts seeing Chinese factories only operating 3-4 day weeks in many locations suggest a slow-down in the pace of goods accumulating at ports, but also imply disruption, shortages, and delays in loading, still making problems worse overall. Imagine large-scale US stimulus on top of a drop in supply! Overall, “endemic congestion” is the perfect definition for the state of the global shipping market. It is the results of many factors: vessels cancellations and capacity control; Covid; bursts of demand in some trade lines; imbalances in container distribution; regular disruption in key arteries and ports; a backlog and increasing volumes cannot be dealt with at the same time, all creating an exponentially amplifying effect. The epicenter is in the Pacific, but the problem is global. At present 10% of global container capacity is waiting to be unloaded on ship at the anchor outside some port. Solutions need to be found quickly – but can they be? The Transpacific situation is particularly delicate, stemming from a high number of cancellations, ongoing disruption, and the highest demand surge in the global economy. However, this perfect recipe for a disaster is also affecting Asia–Europe lines where shipping rates hikes also do not show any signs of slowing down. …and unstuck? The shipping business would logically seem best-placed to get out of this situation by increasing vessel capacity. Indeed, orders of new ships spiked in 2021, and in coming years 2.5m TEUs will come on stream (figure 12). However, this will not arrive for some time, and may not sharply reduce shipping prices when it does. Indeed, the industry --which historically operates on thin margins, and has seen many boom and bust cycles—knows all too well the old Greek phrase: “98 ships, 101 cargoes, profit; 101 ships, 98 cargoes, disaster”. They will want to preserve as much of the current profitability as possible, which a concentrated ‘Big 3’ makes easier. Tellingly, a recent article stressed: “Ship-owners and financiers should avoid sinking money into new container vessels despite a global crunch because record orders have driven up prices, according to industry insiders.” True, CMA CGM just froze shipping spot rates until February 2022, joining Hapag-Lloyd. Yet in both cases the new implied benchmark is of price freezes at what were once unthinkable levels – not price falls. To conclude, shipping prices are arguably very high for structural reasons, and are likely to stay high ahead – if those structures do not change. On which, we even need to look at the structure of ships themselves. Too Big to Sail Shipping, like much else, has become much larger over the years. Small feeder ships of up to 1,000TEU are dwarfed by the largest Ultra-Large Container Vessels (ULCVs), which start from 14,501 TEUS up, and are larger than the US Navy’s aircraft carriers. Of course, there is a reason for this gigantism: economy of scale. It is a sound argument. However, the same was said in other industries where painful experience, after the fact, has shown such commercial logic is not the best template for systemic stability. In banking we are aware of the phenomenon, and danger, of “Too Big to Fail”. In shipping, ULCVs and their associated industry patterns could perhaps be seen as representing “Too Big to Sail”. After all, there are downsides to so much topside beyond the obvious incident with the Ever Given earlier in the year: ULVCs cannot fit through the Panama Canal; Not all ports can handle ULCVs; They are slow at sea; They are slow to load and unload; They require more complex cargo placement / handling; They force carriers to maximize efficiency to cover costs; They force all in-land logistics to adapt to their scale; They force a hub-and-spokes global trade model; and They are vulnerable to accident or disruption, i.e., they were designed for an entirely peaceful shipping environment at a time of rising geopolitical tensions (which we will return to later). In short, current ULCV hub-and-spokes trade models are the antithesis of a nimble, distributed, flexible, resilient system, and actually help create and exacerbate the cascading supply-chain failures we are currently experiencing. However, we do not have a global shipping regulator to order shippers to change their commercial practices! Specifically, building ULVCs takes time, and shipyard capacity is more limited. As shown, the issue is not so much a lack of ULCVs, but limited capacity from ports onwards. That means we need to expand ports, which is a far slower and more difficult process than adding new containers or ships, given the constraints of geography, and the layers of local and international planning and politics involved in such developments. There is also then a need for matching warehousing, roads, trucks, truckers, rail, and retailer warehousing, etc. As we already see today, just finding truckers is already a huge issue in many  economies. Meanwhile, any incident that impacts on a ULCV port --a Covid lockdown, a weather event, power-cuts, or a physical action-- exacerbates feedback loops of supply-chain disruption more than any one, or several, smaller ports servicing smaller feeder ships would do. So why are we not adapting? Economic thinking, partly dictated by the need to survive in a tough industry; massive sunk costs; and equally massive vested interests – which we can collectively call “Too Big to Sail”. Naturally, some parties do not wish to move to a nimbler, less concentrated, more widely-distributed, locally-produced, more resilient supply-chain system --with lower economies of scale-- while some do: and this is ultimately a political stand-off. Crucially, nobody is going to make much-needed new investments in maritime logistics until they know what the future map of global production looks like. Post-Covid, do we still make most things in China, or will it be back in the US, EU, and Japan – or India, etc.? Are we Building Back Better? Where? Resolving that will help resolve our shipping problems: but it will of course create lots of new ones while doing so. Tidal Wave of Politics Against this backdrop, is it any surprise that a tsunami of politics could soon sweep over global shipping? In July, US President Biden introduced Executive Order 14036, “Promoting Competition in the American Economy”. This puts forward initiatives for federal agencies to establish policies to address corporate consolidation and decreased competition - which will include shipping. Ironically, the US encouraged “Too Big to Sail” for decades, but real and political tides both turn. Indeed, in August a bipartisan bill was introduced in Congress --“The Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2021”-- which proposes radical changes to: Establish reciprocal trade to promote US exports as part of the Federal Maritime Commission’s (FMC) mission; Require ocean carriers to adhere to minimum service standards that meet the public interest, reflecting best practices in the global shipping industry; Require ocean carriers or marine terminal operators to certify that any late fees --known in maritime parlance as “detention and demurrage” charges-- comply with federal regulations or face penalties; Potentially eliminate “demurrage” charges for importers; Prohibit ocean carriers from declining opportunities for US exports unreasonably, as determined by the FMC in new required rulemaking; Require ocean common carriers to report to the FMC each calendar quarter on total import/export tonnage and TEUs (loaded/empty) per vessel that makes port in the US; and Authorizes the FMC to self-initiate investigations of ocean common carrier’s business practices and apply enforcement measures, as appropriate. Promoting reciprocal US trade would either slow global trade flows dramatically and/or force more US goods production. While that would help address the global container imbalance, it would also unbalance our economic and financial architecture. Fining carriers who refuse to pick up US exports would also rock many boats. Moreover, forcing carriers to carry the cost of demurrage would change shipping market dynamics hugely. At the moment, the profits of the shipping snarl sit with carriers and ports, and the rising costs with importers: the US wants to reverse that status quo. While global carriers and US ports obviously say this bill is “doomed to fail”, and will promote a “protectionist race to the bottom”, it is bipartisan, and has been endorsed by a large number of US organisations, agricultural producers and retailers. Even smaller global players are responding similarly. For example, Thailand is considering re-launching a national shipping carrier to help support its economic growth: will others follow suite ahead? Meanwhile, shipping will also be impacted by another political decision - the planned green energy transition. The EU will tax carbon in shipping from 2023, and new vessels will need to be built. For what presumed global trade map, as we just asked? The green transition will also see a huge increase in the demand for resources such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. Economies that lack these, e.g., Japan and the EU, will need to import them from locations such as Africa and Australia. That will require new infrastructure, new ports, and new shipping routes – which is also geopolitical. Indeed, the US, China, the EU, UK, and Japan have all made clear that they wish to hold commanding positions in new green value chains - yet not all will be able to do so if resources are limited. Therefore, green shipping threatens to be a zero-sum game akin to the 19th century scramble for resources. As Foreign Affairs noted back in July: “Electricity is the new oil” – meant in terms of ugly power politics, not more beautiful power production. Before the green transition, energy prices are soaring (see our “Gasflation” report). On one hand, this may lift bulk shipping rates; on another, we again see the need for resilient supply chains, in which shipping plays a key role. In short, current zero-sum supply-chains snarls, already seeing a growing backlash, are soon likely to be matched by a zero-sum shift to new green industrial technologies and related raw materials. In both dimensions, shipping will become as (geo)political as it is logistical. Notably, while tides may be turning, we can’t ‘just’ reshape the global shipping system, or get from “just in time” to “just in case”, or to a more localized “just for me” just like that: it will just get messy in the process. Cold War Icebergs The US is now pushing “extreme competition” between “liberal democracy and autocracy”; China counters that US hegemony is over. For both, part of this will run through global shipping. Both giants are happy to decouple supply chains from the other where it benefits them. However, the larger geostrategic implications are even more significant. Piracy and national/imperial exclusion zones used to be maritime problems, but post-WW2, the US Navy has kept the seas safe and open to trade for all carriers equally. This duty is extremely expensive, and will get more so as new ships have to be built to replace an ageing fleet. Meanwhile, China is building its own navy at breath-taking speed, and a maritime Belt and Road (BRI). As a result, a clear shift has occurred in US maritime strategy: 2007’s “A Co-operative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power”, stressed: “We believe that preventing wars is as important as winning wars.” 2015’s update argued: “Our responsibility to the American people dictates an efficient use of our fiscal resources.” 2020’s title was changed to “Advantage at Sea: Prevailing with Integrated All-Domain Naval Power”, and stressed: “...the rules-based international order is once again under assault. We must prepare as a unified Naval Service to ensure that we are equal to the challenge.” The US is also pressing ahead with the AUKUS defence alliance and the ‘Quad’ of Japan, India, and Australia to maintain naval superiority in the Indo-Pacific. This is generating geopolitical frictions, and fears of further escalation of maritime clashes in the region. The Quad has also agreed to key tech and supply-chain cooperation, with Australia a key part of a new green minerals strategy – a race in which China is still well ahead, and the EU lags. Should any kind of major incident occur, shipping costs would escalate enormously, as can easily be seen in the case of US-UK shipping from 1887-1939: this leaped 1,600% during WW1, and these shipping data stopped entirely in September 1939 due to WW2. Crucially, US naval strategy is rooted in the post-WW2 power structure in which it benefitted from such control commercially. That architecture is crumbling - and there is a matching US consensus to shift towards “America First”, or “Made in America”. The thought progression from here is surely: “Why are we paying to protect shipping from China, or economies that do not support us against China?” In short, the strategic and financial logic is: surrender control of the seas, or ensure commercial gains from it. There are enormous implications for shipping if such a shift in thinking were to occur - and such discussions are already taking place. July 2020’s “Hidden Harbours: China’s State-backed Shipping Industry” from the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued: “The time is long overdue for the US to reinvigorate its maritime industries and challenge the Chinese in the same game by using the very same techniques the Chinese have used to gain dominance in the global maritime industry. The private-sector maritime industry cannot do this alone—the US maritime industry simply cannot compete against the power of the Chinese state. The US and allied governments must bring to bear substantial and sustained political action, policies, and financial support. To do anything less is to cede control of the world’s maritime industry and global supply chains to China, and perhaps to force the US and its allies to enter their own ‘century of shame.’” Meanwhile, stories link ports and shipping to national security (see here and here), underlining logistics are no longer seen as purely commercial areas, but rather fall within the “grey zone” between war and peace – as was the case pre-WW2. This again has major implications for the shipping business. Expect that trend to continue ahead if the maritime past as guide, as we shall now explore. The Ship of Things to Come? US maritime history in particular holds some clear lessons for today’s shipping world if looked at carefully. First, the importance of the sea to what we now think of as a land-based US: the US merchant marine helped it win independence from the powerful naval forces of the British, and the first piece of legislation Congress passed in 1789 was a 10% tariff on British imports, both to build US industry and merchant shipping. Indeed, the underlying message of US maritime history is that the US is a major commercial force at sea – but only when it sees this as a national-security goal. Following independence, US commercial shipping and industry surged in tandem, with an understandable dip only due to war with the British in 1812. The gradual normalisation of maritime trade with the UK after that saw a gradual decline in the share of trade US shipping carried, which accelerated with the end of steamship subsidies --which the British maintained-- and the US Civil War. By the start of the 20th century, W. L. Marvin was arguing: “A nation which is reaching out for the commercial mastery of the world cannot long suffer nine-tenths of its ocean-carrying to be monopolized by its foreign rivals.” Yet 1915 saw the welfare-focused US Seaman’s Act passed and US flags move to Panama, where costs were lower. However, WW1 saw US shipping surge, and the Jones Act in 1920 reaffirmed ‘cabotage’ – only US flagged and crewed vessels can trade cargo between US ports. The 1930s saw global trade and the US maritime marine dwindle again – until 1936, when the Federal Maritime Commission was set up "to promote the commerce of the US, and to aid in the national defense." WW2 then saw US mass production of Liberty Ships account for over a third of global merchant shipping – and then post-1945, this lead slipped away again, and the US merchant marine now stands at around just 0.4% of the world fleet. Indeed, in 2020, US sealift capability was reported short on personnel, hulls, and strategy such that the commercial fleet would be unlikely to meet the Pentagon’s needs for a large-scale troop build-up overseas. As we see, the US has been here several times before. If the past is any guide for the future response, this suggests the following US actions could be seen ahead: Use its market size to force shippers to change pricing – which may already be happening; Raise tariffs again (on green grounds?); Refuse to take goods from some foreign ships or ports; Force vessels to re-flag in the US, at higher cost; Build a rival to China’s marine BRI with allies; Massive ship-building, for the 3rd time in the last century; Charter US private firms to bring in green materials; or The US Navy stops protecting some sea lanes/carriers, or forces the costs of their patrols onto others. It goes without saying that any of these steps would have enormous implications for global shipping and the global economy – and yet most of them are compatible with both the strategic military/commercial logic previously underlined, as well as the lessons of history. Wait and Sea? We summarize what we have shown in the key points below: Markets For markets, there are obvious implications for inflation. How can it stay low if imported prices stay high? How will central banks respond? Rate hikes won’t help. Neither will loose monetary policy – and less it is directed to a directly-related government response on supply chains and logistics. This suggests greater impetus for a shift to more localised production on cost grounds, at least at the lower end of the value chain, if not the more-desirable higher end. Yet once this wave starts to build, it may be hard to stop. Look at EU plans for strategic autonomy in semiconductors, for example, which are echoed in the US, China, and Japan. For FX, the countries that ride that wave best will float; the ones that don’t will sink. Helicopter view of ships Clearly, shipping will continue to boom. There are huge opportunities in capex on ships, ports, logistics, and infrastructure ahead – as well as in new production and supply chains. Yet one first needs to be sure what, or whose, map of production will be used for them! As the industry sits and waits for the wind and tide to change, logically one wants to position oneself best for what may be coming next. That implies global consolidation and/or vertical integration: Large shippers looking at smaller shippers to snuff out alternative routes and capacity; shippers looking at ports; ports looking at shippers; giant retailers/producers looking at shippers; importers banding together for negotiating power in ultra-tight markets. Of course, nationally, governments are looking at shippers, or at starting new carriers. If this is to be a realpolitik power struggle for who rules the waves --“Too Big to Sail”, or a new more national/resilient map of production-- then having greater scale now increases your fire-power. Of course, it also makes you a larger target for others. Let’s presume current trends continue. Could we even end up with a return to older patterns of production, e.g., where oil used to be produced by company X, refined in its facilities, shipped on its vessels, to its de facto ports, and on to its retail distribution network. Might we even see the same for consumer goods? That is the logic of globalisation and geopolitics, as well as the accumulation of capital. However, if history is a guide, and (geo)politics is a tsunami, things will look very different on both the surface and at the deepest depths of the shipping industry and the global economy. Much we take as normal today could become flotsam and jetsam. To conclude, who benefits from the huge profits of the current shipping snarl, and who will pay the costs, is ultimately a (geo)political issue, not a market one. Many ports are likely going to be caught up in that storm. Tyler Durden Sun, 10/03/2021 - 12:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 3rd, 2021

Supply Chain Woes Catalyzing A New Era Of Retail Logistics Transparency

The “just in time” supply chain worked well enough to paper over the cracks, but since COVID-19, retailers have been grappling with a supply chain crisis. The pandemic closed ports, caused goods and containers to pile up, and crippled air freight. Since the economy started reopening, demand has shot up, and the flaws yawned into […] The “just in time” supply chain worked well enough to paper over the cracks, but since COVID-19, retailers have been grappling with a supply chain crisis. The pandemic closed ports, caused goods and containers to pile up, and crippled air freight. Since the economy started reopening, demand has shot up, and the flaws yawned into gaping chasms. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Containers left on the wrong side of the world caused a shortage that drove prices sky high. A shortage of truck drivers, train drivers, and port workers added to the delays, with unloaded containers creating blockages at ports. There’s reportedly only one driver for every nine job postings, and 77% of the major ports are experiencing “abnormally long” turnaround. As a result, online shoppers saw more than 2 billion out-of-stock messages in October. Headlines warning about major shipping delays heading into the holiday shopping season led consumers to order early, which disrupted the normal shipping rhythms even more. The impact on retailers is significant. Independent sellers are getting squeezed out because they can’t compete with big chains who pay over the odds to get their goods. “It’s very unpredictable. I don’t know what I’m getting, or when,” says Kim Mitchell, an independent toy shop owner, while an outfitters’ business in Pennsylvania hadn’t received around 25% of its holiday orders as of early November. The big names are also suffering. Clothing retailer Gap saw share prices crash in November due to product shipment delays, reporting losses of $152 million in Q3 2021, compared with a profit of $95 million for Q3 2020. While the supply chain crisis could be finally ending, there’s still anxiety about supply chain crisis 2.0, as a new variant rises and more people are unable to come in to work, which could leave ports and routes closed again due to lacanpower. Niko Polvinen, CEO of logistics tech company Logmore, says that there are steps retailers can take to minimize the damage of ongoing delays. “This is a global shipping problem that’s going to take months to sort out,” he acknowledges. “But we’re also seeing retailers and the logistics companies that serve them taking steps to change their management approaches in ways that could result in a better, smoother, and more reliable supply chain for the long term.” Polvinen is adamant that the right tools, together with the right attitude, can mitigate the impact of the supply chain crisis, make retailers more resilient to future disasters, and help the supply chain run more smoothly even when there’s no crisis. “We believe that the changes in shipping that can help retailers cope with the crisis, can also make them more resilient and help them improve the customer experience that they offer,” he tells me. Smoother Supply Chains Start With Visibility Retailers need real time data, to track each shipment across the entire route. Logistics companies need to deliver visibility into the conditions, progress and potential upcoming bottlenecks of each package on a minute by minute basis – and to their credit, they are stepping up to the plate. “We’re seeing a real change in the way that retailers and logistics teams relate to data. There’s been a significant uptake in the number of queries we’ve had from retail suppliers who see the need to offer their clients complete data and insights about their shipments,” reports Polvinen. Logistics companies need to be able to rely on shipment data, which requires trackers that keep working in all temperatures and conditions and can be read easily without expensive or error-prone equipment. Data needs to be not just collected from multiple sources, but also shared with upstream and downstream partners. Retailers should have access to reports about progress, conditions, etc. in real time, so they are informed, aligned with other stakeholders, and able to make decisions from a position of strength. That, Polvinen points out, is why logistics data collection and sharing should be automated — because manual processes are unreliable. It’s easy for someone to forget to check a tracker, or an update to be delayed, etc. “I often say, let the packages tell their story,” says Polvinen with a smile. “When data gathering and sharing is automated, nothing gets overlooked.” Transparency Breeds Trust And Loyalty Customers naturally get frustrated when their orders don’t arrive on time, with 58% of respondents to an Oracle survey saying they’d stop buying from a brand after one to three delays or disruptions. But the way you handle it can make a big difference to their loyalty. When asked what would improve their purchase experience at a time of frequent delays and shortages, 63% of consumers said they want more regular updates about shipping status, 59% want more transparency about inventory, and 54% want more information about potential supply chain issues. What’s more, 78% would be more willing to buy from a company if they knew it used advanced technologies like artificial intelligence to manage its supply chain. There’s a vast difference between telling a customer that their new gaming console has been delayed, and telling them that it will arrive three weeks late due to a bottleneck at the Port of Los Angeles. Everyone is happier when they feel like someone’s in control, so retailers who are upfront and honest about current and potential delays enjoy more trust and loyalty from their customers. Logistics Reliability Requires The Full Picture “As much as real time, reliable data is a game-changer, it’s not enough on its own,” observes Polvinen. “You need the wider picture. Not just where this shipment is at the moment, but what’s coming up ahead, what is happening to all your shipments over time, where there’s bad weather brewing, where the normal ‘best route’ is closed because of natural events or geopolitics or even a local holiday.” Companies with smart data analytics capabilities know how to slice data into the insights that underpin better decisions. You’re in far better shape if you can, for example, identify which vendors or regions are plagued with more delays, so you can change routes and/or vendors as necessary; see if high delays are seasonal for certain areas so you can avoid them; and compare logistics service providers’ relative efficiency, to select the best option at each time. Accessing this information with dynamic dashboard visualizations means you can see the best choice for each shipment at a glance, removing friction from decision-making. Deeper insights reveal opportunities to provide better CX. For example, one route might be free from bottlenecks at the moment, but the price is high. With this information, you can offer your customers the option of paying more for on-time delivery, something for which 81% say they would pay a premium, according to Oracle. Opportunities For Retailers To Build Back Better Nobody welcomed the supply chain crisis, but the way that retailers respond could lay the groundwork for a more efficient and resilient supply chain for a long time to come. By improving visibility, transparency, and agility across the entire supply chain, and keeping customers fully informed, retailers and logistics providers can stop being slaves to the unexpected and optimize supply across the board. Updated on Dec 27, 2021, 1:52 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 27th, 2021

Key Events This Quiet Week: Lower-Tier Data Releases

Key Events This Quiet Week: Lower-Tier Data Releases As we arrive at the final week before Christmas when markets are their most illiquid, there’s plenty of newsflow from the weekend for markets to digest this morning as DB's Henry Allen recaps this morning. In particular, there was the announcement from the US that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia wouldn’t be able to support the Build Back Better Bill, which has been the subject of intense negotiations over recent weeks and marks a significant blow for President Biden’s economic agenda. Meanwhile on the Covid front, there was a further ratcheting up of concerns about the Omicron variant, with the Netherlands becoming the latest European country to go back into lockdown as of yesterday, as cases continue to spread elsewhere. But otherwise, the events calendar is looking fairly quiet for now in this holiday-shortened week, with just a few lower-tier data releases and the occasional central bank speaker. As shown in the chart below, this week the focus will be on the US PCE core prices, current account, leading indicators, housing data and consumer confidence. CPI in Japan. Current account and consumer confidence in the Euro area. GDP in the UK and Canada. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in the Czech Republic and Thailand. Since there are few market moving events on deck, let's take a closer look at the recent Omicron developments, since that remains one of the biggest issues for markets right now and has significantly clouded the outlook moving into year-end. In a nutshell, the news over the weekend from Europe has only pointed in the direction of further restrictions across multiple countries, with the Netherlands being the most severe as a full lockdown was announced by the Prime Minister on Saturday that leaves just supermarkets and essential shops open, with even schools shut. When it comes to socializing, people will not be allowed to receive more than 2 visitors aged 13 and over per day, although over 24-26 December, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, this will be raised to 4 people. Elsewhere in Europe there was a similar pattern towards tougher measures, with the Irish PM announcing on Friday evening that there would be an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants and theaters, among others, which would last from today until January 30. Over in Spain, Prime Minister Sánchez said in a televised address yesterday that he’d be meeting with regional leaders virtually on Wednesday to look at measures for the weeks ahead. In Italy, it’s been widely reported that the government is looking at further measures to contain the spread as well, and they’re set to meet on Thursday to discuss these, whilst here in the UK, Health Secretary Javid was not ruling out further restrictions this side of Christmas. Separately in the US, President Biden is set to deliver a speech about Covid and the steps that the administration will be taking, with Press Secretary Jen Psaki tweeting that Biden would also be “issuing a stark warning of what the winter will look like for Americans that choose to remain unvaccinated.” For those after a bit more optimism ahead of Christmas, then a couple of DB research notes out on Friday about the new variant will definitely be of interest. The first by FX Strategist Shreyas Gopal looks at London, which is the epicentre of Omicron infections in the UK, and tracks cases there against those in the South African province of Gauteng a couple of weeks back. The good news is that if the relationship is similar, then that does suggest a peak in cases soon. The other note comes from DB's head of rates research Francis Yared who shows that although deaths are starting to increase in South Africa, they’re currently on a much lower trajectory relative to cases compared to previous waves. An important question for markets is whether these patterns from South Africa can be extrapolated over to the advanced economies, which have much higher vaccination rates on the one hand, but also much older populations on the other, so there are factors that could push in either direction. Keep an eye out on these leading indicators from South Africa, as well as London, since they’ll have implications for what could occur in the coming weeks elsewhere. Away from Covid, the other main piece of news over the weekend came from the US, where the moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin said that he couldn’t support the Build Back Better package that forms a key part of President Biden’s economic agenda, with much of his proposals on social programs and climate change. The news broke in an interview from Manchin on Fox News Sunday, when Manchin said “I can’t get there” when it comes to supporting the package, and follows direct negotiations that he’d been having with the president. Manchin’s support is crucial for the bill’s passage, since the Senate is split 50-50 between the Democrats and Republicans, with the Democrats having control only by virtue of Vice President Harris’ casting vote. So with zero Republican support for the package, that required every single Democratic senator on board with the proposals, giving Manchin enormous influence. A statement from White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in response to Manchin did not sound impressed, saying that his comments “are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.” It went on to say that “we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.” Nevertheless, Manchin’s own written statement wasn’t using the language of compromise, saying that his “Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face.” So the implication from Manchin is that Build Back Better won’t be happening this side of the mid-terms in its current form, and would require a fundamental rethink and meaningful slimming down were it to have any chance of passing. * * * With that in mind, let's take another quick look at the relatively sparse key economic data releases around the globe, courtesy of Deutsche Bank: Monday December 20 Data: UK December CBI industrial trends survey, US November Conference Board leading index Earnings: Nike, Micron Tuesday December 21 Data: Germany January GfK consumer confidence, UK November public finances, December CBI distributive trades survey, Italy November PPI, US Q3 current account balance, Euro Area advance December consumer confidence Wednesday December 22 Data: UK final Q3 GDP, France November PPI, US third estimate Q3 GDP, November Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, December Conference Board consumer confidence Central Banks: ECB’s Holzmann speaks Thursday December 23 Data: Italy December consumer confidence index, US November personal income, personal spending, preliminary November durable goods orders, core capital goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Japan November nationwide CPI (23:30 UK time) Central Banks: BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks Politics: Russian President Putin annual news conference * * * Finally, looking at just the US, key events this week are the durable goods report and the core PCE inflation report on Wednesday. There are no major speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Monday, December 20 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Tuesday, December 21 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q3 (consensus -$206.0bn, last -$190.3bn) Wednesday, December 22 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q3 (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We estimate no revision on net in the third vintage of the Q3 GDP report (previously reported at +2.1% qoq ar). 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, December (GS 110.0, consensus 111.0, last 109.5): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index increased by 0.5pt to 110.0 in December, reflecting modestly positive signals from other confidence measures. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, November (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.0%, last +0.8%): We estimate that existing home sales increased by 3.0% in November. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, December 23 08:30 AM Personal income, November (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Personal spending, November (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.3%); PCE price index, November (GS +0.54%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.63%); Core PCE price index, November (GS +0.38%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.43%); PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +5.60%, consensus +5.7%, last +5.05%); Core PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +4.52%, consensus +4.5%, last +4.12%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.38% month-over-month in November, corresponding to a 4.52% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.54% in November, corresponding to a +5.60% increase from a year earlier. We expect that personal income increased by 0.2% and personal spending increased by 0.5% In November. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 18 (GS 210k, consensus 205k, last 206k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 11 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,845k): We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 210k in the week ended December 18. 8:30 AM Durable goods orders, November preliminary (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.0%, last -0.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, November preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, November preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, November preliminary (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.4%): We estimate durable goods rebounded 2.5% in the preliminary November report, reflecting strong commercial aircraft orders. We also expect firm gains in core capital goods orders (+0.5%) and core capital goods shipments (+0.8%), reflecting strong goods demand and higher prices. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (GS 70.6, consensus 70.4, last 70.4): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased by 0.2pt to 70.6 in the final December reading. 10:00 AM New home sales, November (GS +3.8%, consensus +3.4%, last +0.4%): We estimate that new home sales increased by 3.8% in November, reflecting increases in housing permits and mortgage applications. Friday, December 24 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Source: DB, Goldman, BofA Tyler Durden Mon, 12/20/2021 - 10:26.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 20th, 2021

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga Much of the overnight session was a snooze fest with stocks drifting first higher then lower after surging on Tuesday, as the narrative meandered from "omicron fears ease" optimism to "vaccines won't work" pessimism, before futures took a sudden leg lower, dropping into the red just after 530am ET, following news that UK's Boris Johnson would introduce new restrictions in England to curb Omicron spread, sparking fears that Omicron is more dangerous that expected (and than futures reflected). However, this episode of pessimism proved short-lived because just an hour later, the WSJ confirmed that Omicron is really just a pitch for covid booster shots when it reported that even though the covid vaccine loses significant effectiveness against Omicron in an early study, this is miraculously reversed with a booster shot as three doses of the vaccine were able to neutralize the variant in an initial laboratory study, and the companies said two doses may still protect against severe disease. Futures quickly shot up on the news, spiking above the gamma "all clear" level of 4,700 in a move best summarized with the following chart. And so, after going nowhere, S&P futures climbed for a third day, last seen 12 points, or 0.3% higher, just around 4,700 after rising the most since March on Tuesday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose following the biggest jump in more than a year. In addition to the omicron soap opera, which as we noted yesterday turns out was just one staged covid booster shot advertisement (because Pfizer and Moderna can always do with a bigger yacth), sentiment was also lifted by Chinese authorities' reversal to "easing mode" and aggressive efforts to limit the fallout from property market woes which lifted risk assets in Asia even as key debt deadlines at China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. passed without any sign of payment. "Clearly in the very short term uncertainty has risen over the Omicron virus... but overall at this stage we do not believe it will derail the macro picture in the medium-term," said Jeremy Gatto, multi-asset portfolio manager at Unigestion. Treasury yields were little changed after rising across the curve Tuesday. The VIX spiked first on the FT news, then dropped back into the red, while the dollar was flat and crude rose after turning red. Besides macro, micro was also in play and here are some other notable premarket movers Apple (AAPL US) ticks 1% higher in premarket trading following a Nikkei report that the tech giant told suppliers to speed up iPhone output for Nov.-Jan, citing people it didn’t identify. Amazon.com (AMZN US) shares in focus after an Amazon Web Services outage is wreaking havoc on the e-commerce giant’s delivery operation Stitch Fix (SFIX US) tumbles 25% in U.S. premarket trading after a 2Q forecast miss that analysts called “surprising,” while customer additions also disappointed Pfizer (PFE US) shares drop 2% in U.S. premarket trading after an early study showed that the company’s vaccine provides less immunity to the omicron variant Dare Bioscience (DARE US) soars 41% in premarket trading after Xaciato gets FDA approval for treating bacterial vaginosis EPAM Systems (EPAM US) soars 8% in premarket after S&P Dow Jones Indices said co. will replace Kansas City Southern in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Dec. 14 Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT US) upgraded to buy from hold and target boosted to Street-high $32 from $29 at Deutsche Bank with the company seen as a major beneficiary from the shift to electric vehicles. Shares up 4.3% in premarket trading NXP Semiconductor (NXPI US) shares slide 2.2% in U.S. premarket trading after the chipmaker got a new sell rating at UBS Dave & Buster’s (PLAY US) gained 3.5% postmarket after the dining and entertainment company reported EPS that beat the average analyst estimate and authorized a $100 million share buyback program "Every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won't be the curveball to throw the recovery off course," wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index initially drifted both higher and lower then bounced 0.3% on the favorable Pfizer and BioNTech news one day after posting its bigger surge in a year. European benchmark index earlier rose as much as 2%, dropped 2.1%. Health care sub-index leads gains, rising 1.2%, followed by travel stocks. The Stoxx 600 closed 2.5% higher on Tuesday, biggest gain since November 2020 Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also rose for a second day as concerns about the omicron variant and China’s economic slowdown eased. The MSCI AsiaPacific Index climbed as much as 0.9% after capping its biggest one-day gain in more than three months on Tuesday. Technology and health-care shares provided the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in New Zealand and India -- where the central bank held rates at a record low -- were among the day’s best performers. “The biggest point appealing to investors is that the Omicron variant doesn’t seem to be too fatal,” which is encouraging to those who had been going short to close out their positions, said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities in Tokyo. “Worry that the Chinese economy will lose its growth momentum has subsided quite a bit.” Thus far, Omicron cases haven’t overwhelmed hospitals while vaccine developments indicate some promise in dealing with the variant. While vaccines like the one made by Pfizer and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new strain, protection can be fortified with boosters. The two-day rally in the Asian stock benchmark marks a sharp turnaround following weeks of declines since mid-November. Stocks in China also climbed for a second day. The nation’s central bank said Monday it will cut the amount of cash most banks must keep in reserve from Dec. 15, providing a liquidity boost and helping restore investor confidence In FX, news on the Omicron variant rippled through G-10 currencies after a report the Pfizer vaccine could neutralize the Omicron variant boosted risk appetite. The pound underperformed other Group-of-10 peers, extending declines after reports that the U.K. government is poised to introduce new Covid-19 restrictions.  A gauge of the dollar’s strength fluctuated as Treasuries pare gains and stocks rally after a report that said Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1277; USD/NOK falls as much as 0.8% to 8.9459, lowest since Nov. 25 Sterling fell against the euro and the dollar, as traders pare bets on the path of Bank of England rate hikes following reports that the U.K. could introduce fresh Covid-19 restrictions such as working from home and vaccine passports for large venues. Money markets pare rate hike bets, with just six basis points of interest rate hikes priced in for the BOE meeting next week. GBP/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 1.3163, testing the key level of 1.3165, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of gains since March 2020. EUR/GBP gains as much as 0.7% to 0.85695, the highest since Nov. 11. “The market will probably see this as more U.K. specific and therefore an issue for the pound at least in the short term,” said Stuart Bennett, FX strategist at Santander. In rates, Treasuries were mixed with markets reacting in a risk-on manner to the Dow Jones report that Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. Yields remain richer by less than 1bp across long-end of the curve while front-end trades cheaper on the day, flattening curve spreads. Session’s focal points include $36b 10-year note reopening at 1pm ET, following Tuesday’s strong 3-year note auction. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.475%, near flat on the day; gilts outperform slightly after Financial Times report that further Covid restrictions will be announced imminently to curb the variant’s spread. U.S. 2-year yields were cheaper by 1bp on the day, rose to new 2021 high following Pfizer vaccine report; 2s10s spread erased a flattening move In commodities, crude futures turned red, WTI falling 0.8%, popping back below $72. Spot gold holds Asia’s modest gains, adding $8 to trade near $1,792/oz. Looking at the day ahead, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,693.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 480.55 MXAP up 0.7% to 194.84 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 632.78 Nikkei up 1.4% to 28,860.62 Topix up 0.6% to 2,002.24 Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,996.87 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,637.57 Sensex up 1.8% to 58,654.25 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,405.45 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,001.80 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,790.33 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 96.20 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.38% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1286 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The omicron variant of Covid-19 must inflict significant damage on the euro-area economy for European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks to back additional stimulus “The current phase of higher inflation could last longer than expected only some months ago,” ECB vice president Luis de Guindos says at event The earliest studies on omicron are in and the glimpse they’re providing is cautiously optimistic: while vaccines like the one made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new variant, protection can be fortified with boosters U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce new Covid-19 restrictions in England, known as “Plan B,” to stop the spread of the Omicron variant, the Financial Times reported, citing three senior Whitehall officials familiar with the matter. French economic activity will continue to rise in December, despite another wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and fresh uncertainty over the omicron variant, according the Bank of France The Kingdom of Denmark will sell a sovereign green bond for the first time next month to help the Nordic nation meet one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets Tom Hayes, the former UBS Group AG and Citigroup Inc. trader who became the face of the sprawling Libor scandal, has lost his bid to appeal his U.K. criminal conviction Poland is poised for a hefty increase in interest rates after a spike in inflation to a two- decade high convinced central bankers that spiraling price growth isn’t transitory. Of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 20 expect a 50 basis-point hike to 1.75% today and 10 see the rate rising to 2%. The other two expect a 25 basis-point increase Australia is weighing plans for a central bank-issued digital currency alongside the regulation of the crypto market as it seeks to overhaul how the nation’s consumers and businesses pay for goods and services Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya dropped a strong hint that big firms are in less need of funding support, a comment that will likely fuel speculation the BOJ will scale back its pandemic buying of corporate bonds and commercial paper A detailed summary of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded positively as the region took impetus from the global risk momentum following the tech-led rally in the US, where Apple shares rose to a record high and amid increased optimism that Omicron could be less dangerous than prior variants. This was after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID and NIH's Fauci also suggested that Omicron was 'almost certainly' not more severe than Delta, although there were some slight headwinds in late Wall Street trade after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) was underpinned in which tech led the broad gains across sectors as it found inspiration from the outperformance of big tech stateside, and with energy bolstered by the recent rebound in underlying oil prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) conformed to the upbeat mood although further advances were capped after USD/JPY eased off the prior day’s highs and following a wider-than-expected contraction to the economy with the final annualised Q3 GDP at -3.6% vs exp. -3.1%. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were less decisive and initially lagged behind their peers as sentiment was mired by default concerns due to the failure by Evergrande to pay bondholders in the lapsed 30-day grace period on two USD-denominated bond payments and with Kaisa Group in a trading halt after missing the deadline for USD 400mln in offshore debt which didn’t bode well for its affiliates. Furthermore, China Aoyuan Property Group received over USD 650mln in repayment demands and warned it may not be able to meet debt obligations, while a subdued Hong Kong debut for Weibo shares which declined around 6% from the offer price added to the glum mood for Hong Kong’s blue-chip tech stocks, as did reports that China is to tighten rules for tech companies seeking foreign funding. Finally, 10yr JGBs languished after spillover selling from T-notes and due to the heightened global risk appetite, but with downside stemmed by support at the key psychological 152.00 level and amid the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.0tln of JGBs. Top Asian News China Clean Car Sales Spike as Consumers Embrace Electric Gold Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Vaccine Efficacy, Geopolitics Paint Maker Avia Avian Falls in Debut After $763 Million IPO Tokyo Prepares to Introduce Same-Sex Partnerships Next Year Equities in Europe shifted to a lower configuration after a mixed open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%; Stoxx 600 -0.1%) as sentiment was dented by rumours of tightening COVID measures in the UK. Markets have been awaiting the next catalyst to latch onto for direction amidst a lack of fresh fundamentals. US equity futures have also been dented but to a lesser extent, with the YM (-0.1%) and ES (Unch) straddling behind the NQ (+0.2%) and RTY (+0.2%). Sources in recent trade suggested an 85% chance of the UK implementing COVID Plan B, according to Times' Dunn; reports indicate such restrictions could be implemented on Thursday, with the potential for an announcement today. In terms of the timings, the UK cabinet is penciled in for 15:45GMT and presser for 17:30GMT on Plan B, according to BBC's Goodall. Note, this will not be a formal lockdown but more so work-from-home guidance, vaccine passports for nightlife and numerical restrictions on indoor/outdoor gatherings. APAC closed in the green across the board following the tech-led rally in the US. The upside overnight was attributed to a continuation of market optimism after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID, albeit after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. Participants will be closely watching any updates from the vaccine-makers, with the BioNTech CEO stating the drugmaker has data coming Wednesday or Thursday related to the new COVID-19 variant, thus markets will be eyeing a potential update this week ahead of the Pfizer investor call next Friday. Back to European, the UK’s FTSE 100 (Unch) and the Swiss SMI (+0.8%) are largely buoyed by their defensive stocks, with sectors seeing a defensive formation, albeit to a slightly lesser extent vs the open. Healthcare retains its top spot closely followed by Food & Beverages, although Personal & Household Goods and Telecoms have moved down the ranks. On the flip side, Retail, Banks and Travel & Leisure trade at the bottom of the bunch, whilst Tech nursed some earlier losses after opening as the lagging sector. In terms of individual movers, Nestle (+1.8%) is bolstered after announcing a CHF 20bln share repurchase programme alongside a stake reduction in L'Oreal (+1.0%) to 20.1% from 23.3% - worth some EUR 9bln. L’Oreal has shrugged off the stake sale and conforms to the firm sectoral performance across the Personal & Household Goods. Meanwhile, chip names are under pressure after Nikkei sources reported that Apple (+0.8% pre-market) was forced to scale back the total output target for 2021, with iPhone and iPad assembly halted for several days due to supply chain constraints and restrictions on the use of power in China, multiple sources told Nikkei. STMicroelectronics (-1.7%) and Infineon (-5.0%) are among the losers, with the latter also weighed on by a broker downgrade at JPM. Top European News ECB’s Kazaks Sets High Bar for Omicron-Driven Extra Stimulus Biden Is Left Guessing Over Putin’s Ultimate Aim in Ukraine Byju’s Buys Austria’s GeoGebra to Bolster Online Math Courses Scholz Elected by Parliament to Take Charge as German Chancellor In FX, the Dollar index continues to hold above 96.000, but bounces have become less pronounced and the range so far today is distinctly narrower (96.285-130) in fitting with the generally restrained trade in pairings within the basket and beyond, bar a few exceptions. Price action suggests a relatively muted midweek session unless a major game-changer arrives and Wednesday’s agenda does not bode that well in terms of catalysts aside from JOLTS and the BoC policy meeting before the second leg of this week’s refunding in the form of Usd 36 bn 10 year notes. AUD/EUR - Notwithstanding the largely contained currency moves noted above, the Aussie is maintaining bullish momentum on specific factors including strength in iron ore prices and encouraging Chinese data plus PBoC easing that should have a positive knock-on effect for one of its main trading partners even though diplomatic relations between the two nations are increasingly strained. Aud/Usd has also cleared a couple of technical hurdles on the way up to circa 0.7143 and Aud/Nzd is firmer on the 1.0500 handle ahead of the RBA’s latest chart pack release and a speech by Governor Lowe. Elsewhere, the Euro has regained composure after its sub-1.1250 tumble on Tuesday vs the Buck and dip through 0.8500 against the Pound, but still faces psychological resistance at 1.1300 and the 21 DMA that comes in at 1.1317 today, while Eur/Gbp needs to breach the 100 DMA (0.8513) convincingly or close above to confirm a change in direction for the cross from a chart perspective. CHF/CAD/JPY/GBP/NZD - All sitting tight in relation to their US counterpart, with the Franc paring some declines between 0.9255-30 parameters and the Loonie straddling 1.2650 in the run up to the aforementioned BoC that is widely seen as a non-event given no new MPR or press conference, not to mention the actual changes in QE and rate guidance last time. Nevertheless, implied volatility is quite high via a 63 pip breakeven for Usd/Cad. Meanwhile, Sterling lost grip of the 1.3200 handle amidst swirling speculation about the UK reverting to plan B and more Tory MPs calling for PM Johnson to resign, the Yen is rotating around 113.50 eyeing broad risk sentiment and US Treasury yields in context of spreads to JGBs, and the Kiwi is lagging after touching 0.6800 awaiting independent impetus from NZ manufacturing sales for Q3. SCANDI/EM - The Nok extended its advantage/outperformance against the Sek as Brent rebounded towards Usd 76/brl in early trade and Riksbank’s Jansson retained reservations about flagging a repo rate hike at the end of the forecast horizon, while the Mxn and Rub also initially derived some support from oil with the latter also taking on board latest hawkish talk from the CBR. However, the Cny and Cnh are outpacing their rivals again with some assistance from a firmer PBoC midpoint fix to hit multi-year peaks vs the Usd and probe 6.3500 ahead of option expiry interest at 6.3000 and a Fib retracement at 6.2946, in stark contrast to the Try that is unwinding recent recovery gains with no help from the latest blast from Turkish President Erdogan - see 10.00GMT post in the Headline Feed for more. Conversely, the Czk has taken heed of CNB’s Holub underscoring tightening signals and expectations for the next rate convene and the Pln and Brl are anticipating hikes from the NBP and BCB. In commodities, crude futures have been hit on the prospect of imminent COVID-related measures in the UK, albeit the measures do not involve lockdowns. Brent and WTI front month futures slipped from European highs to breach APAC lows. The former dipped below USD 74.50/bbl from a USD 76.00/bbl European peak while its WTI counterpart tested USD 71.00/bbl from USD 72.50/bbl at best. Overnight the benchmarks traded on either side the USD 75/bbl mark and just under USD 72/bbl after the weekly Private Inventories printed a larger-than-expected draw (-3.6mln vs exp. -3.1mln), albeit the internals were less bullish. Yesterday also saw the release of the EIA STEO, cut its 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by an insignificant 10k BPD but raised the 2022 metric by 200k BPD – with the IEA and OPEC monthly reports poised to be released next week. On the vaccine front, a small preliminary study of 12 people showed a 40x reduction in neutralization capacity of the Pfizer vaccine against Omicron, but early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID. BioNTech CEO said they have data coming in on Wednesday or Thursday related to the new Omicron variant. The geopolitical space is also worth keeping on the radar, with US President Biden yesterday warning Russian President Putin that gas exports via Nord Stream 2 will be targeted and more troops will be deployed if he orders an invasion of Ukraine. Further, reports suggested, an Indian army helicopter crashed in Tamil Nadu, with Chief of Defence staff reportedly on board, according to Sputnik. Note, Tamil Nadu is located towards the south of the country and away from conflict zones. Elsewhere spot gold was supported by the overnight pullback in the Dollar, but the recent risk aversion took the yellow metal above the 100 DMA around USD 1,790/oz, with nearby upside levels including the 200 DMA (1,792/oz) and the 50 DMA (1,794/oz). Copper prices meanwhile consolidated within a tight range, with LME copper holding onto a USD 9,500/t handle (just about). Dalian iron ore extended on gains in a continuation of the upside seen in recent trade. US Event Calendar 7am: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -7.2% 10am: Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.5m, prior 10.4m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that we are currently conducting our special 2022 survey. We ask about rates, equities, bond yields and the path of covid in 2022, amongst other things, and also return to a festive question we asked in 2019, namely your favourite ever Christmas songs. The link is here and it’ll be open until tomorrow. All help filling in very much appreciated. My optimism for life has been shattered this morning. Not from the markets or the virus but just as I woke this morning England cricketers finally surrendered and collapsed in a heap on the first day of the Ashes - one the oldest international rivalries in sport. It was all I could do not to turn round and go back to bed. However out of duty I’m soldering on. After the twins nativity play went without incident yesterday, this morning it’s Maisie’s turn. Given she’s in a wheelchair at the moment she can’t get on stage so they’ve given her a solo singing spot at the start. I’m going so I can bring a bucket for all my wife’s tears as she sings!! If I shed a tear I’ll pretend it’s because of the cricket. The global market rebound continued to gather strength yesterday as investors became increasingly optimistic that the Omicron variant wouldn’t prove as bad as initially feared. To be honest, it was more the absence of bad news rather than any concrete good news helping to drive sentiment. Late in the US session we did see some headlines suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine may provide some defence against Omicron but also that the new variant does evade some of the immunity produced by this vaccine. This report of the small study (12 people!!) from South Africa lacked substance but you could take positives and negatives from it. More information is clearly needed. For the markets though, every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won’t be the curveball to throw the recovery off course. Indeed, to get a sense of the scale of the market rebound, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 in Europe have now clocked in their strongest 2-day performances of 2021 so far, with the indices up by +3.27% and +3.76% respectively since the start of the week. Meanwhile, the VIX fell below 25 for the first time in a week. On the day, the S&P 500 (+2.07%) put in its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the STOXX 600 (+2.45%) saw its strongest daily performance since the news that the Pfizer vaccine was successful in trials back in November 2020. Once again the gains were incredibly broad-based, albeit with cyclical sectors leading the way. The Nasdaq (+3.03%) outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time in a week as tech shares led the rally. Small cap stocks also had a strong day, with the Russell 2000 up +2.28%, on the back of Omicron optimism. This recovery in risk assets was also seen in the bounceback in oil prices, with Brent crude (+3.23%) and WTI (+3.68%) now both up by more than $5.5/bbl since the start of the week, which puts them well on the way to ending a run of 6 consecutive weekly declines. For further evidence of this increased optimism, we can also look at the way that investors have been dialling back up their estimates of future rate hikes from the Fed, with yesterday seeing another push in this direction. Before the Omicron news hit, Fed fund futures were fully pricing in an initial hike by the June meeting, but by the close on the Monday after Thanksgiving they’d moved down those odds to just 61% in June, with an initial hike not fully priced until September. Fast forward just over a week however, and we’re now not only back to pricing in a June hike, but the odds of a May hike are standing at +78.8%, which is actually higher than the +66.1% chance priced before the Omicron news hit. A reminder that we’re just a week away now from the Fed’s next decision, where it’s hotly anticipated they could accelerate the pace at which they’ll taper their asset purchases. With investors bringing forward their bets on monetary tightening, front-end US Treasury yields were hitting post-pandemic highs yesterday, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +5.8bps to 0.69%, a level we haven’t seen since March 2020. Longer-dated yield increases weren’t as large, with the 10yr yield up +3.9bps to 1.47%, and the 5s30s curve flattened another -1.8bps to 54.4bps, just above the post-pandemic low of 53.7bps. Over in Europe there was similarly a rise in most countries’ bond yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all moving higher, though incidentally, the 5s30s curve in Germany was also down -2.2bps to its own post-pandemic low of 50.0bps. One pretty big news story that markets have been relatively unperturbed by so far is the rising tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine. Yesterday saw a video call between US President Biden and Russian President Putin. The US readout from the call did not offer much in the way of concrete details, but if you’re looking for any optimistic news, it said that both sides tasked their teams with following up. Setting the background for the call, there were reports immediately beforehand that the US was considering evacuating their citizens and posturing to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ruble appreciated +0.42% against the dollar, and is now only slightly weaker versus the dollar on the week. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly higher led by the Nikkei (+1.49%), CSI (+1.11%), Shanghai Composite (+0.86%) and the KOSPI (+0.78%) as markets respond positively to the Pfizer study mentioned at the top. The Hang Seng (-0.12%) is lagging though. In Japan, the final Q3 GDP contracted -3.6% quarter on quarter annualised against consensus expectations of -3.1% on lower consumer spending than initially estimated. In India, the RBI left the key policy rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting today while underscoring increasing headwinds from the Omicron variant. Futures markets indicate a positive start in the US and Europe with S&P 500 (+0.41%) and DAX (+0.12%) futures trading in the green. Back on the pandemic, despite the relative benign news on Omicron, rising global case counts mean that the direction of travel is still towards tougher restrictions across a range of countries. In fact here in the UK, we saw the 7-day average of reported cases move above 48,000 for the first time since January. In terms of fresh restrictions, yesterday saw Canada announce that they’d be extending their vaccine mandate, which will now require employees in all federally regulated workplaces to be vaccinated, including road transportation, telecommunications and banking. In Sweden, the government is preparing a bill that would see Covid passes introduced for gyms and restaurants, while Poland put further measures in place, including remote schooling from December 20 until January 9, while vaccines would become mandatory for health workers, teachers and uniformed services from March 1. One move to ease restrictions came in Austria, where it was confirmed shops would be reopening on Monday, albeit only for those vaccinated, while restaurants and hotels would reopen the following week. If you see our daily charts you’ll see that cases in Austria have dropped sharply since the peaks a couple of weeks ago, albeit still high internationally. In DC, Congressional leaders apparently agreed to a deal that would ultimately lead to the debt ceiling being increased, after some procedural chicanery. Senate Majority Leader McConnell voiced support for the measure, which is a good sign for its ultimate prospects of passing, but it still needs at least 10 Republican votes in the Senate to pass. McConnell indicated the votes would be there when the Senate ultimately takes it up, which is reportedly set to happen this week. The House passed the measure last night. Yields on Treasury bills maturing in December fell following the headlines. Looking ahead, today will mark the end of an era in Germany, as Olaf Scholz is set to become Chancellor in a Bundestag vote later on, marking an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. That vote will simply be a formality given the three parties of the incoming coalition (the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP) have a comfortable majority between them, and the new cabinet will feature 7 SPD ministers, 5 Green ministers, and 4 from the FDP. Among the positions will include Green co-leader Robert Habeck as Vice Chancellor, Green co-leader Annalena Baerbock as foreign minister, and FDP leader Christian Lindner as finance minister. Running through yesterday’s data, the US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1bn in October (vs. $66.8bn expected), marking its smallest level since April. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, the latest Q3 growth estimate was left unchanged at +2.2%, but both Q1 and Q2’s growth was revised up a tenth. Over in Germany, industrial production grew by a stronger-than-expected +2.8% in October (vs. +1.0% expected), with the previous month’s contraction also revised to show a smaller -0.5% decline. In addition, the expectations component of the December ZEW survey fell by less than expected to 29.9 (vs. 25.4 expected), but the current situation measure fell to a 6-month low of -7.4 (vs. 5.7 expected). To the day ahead now, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/08/2021 - 07:58.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 8th, 2021

Apple has told suppliers demand for the iPhone 13 is falling ahead of the holidays, Bloomberg reports

The tech giant had already cut its iPhone 13 production target for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to the ongoing global chip shortage. iPhone 13Apple Apple is telling component suppliers that demand has slowed, according to a Bloomberg report. Apple had already cut its iPhone 13 production target for 2021 by as many as 10 million units. The production cut is due to the ongoing global chip shortage. Apple has told its component suppliers that demand for the iPhone 13 is falling ahead of the holidays, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.The tech giant had already cut its iPhone 13 production target for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to the ongoing global chip shortage, per Bloomberg.Apple had initially planned to make 90 million units of its newest smartphone in Q4 2021, but told partners it was cutting the target as supply-chain partners Broadcom and Texas Instruments may not be able to deliver enough components for that many devices, Bloomberg reported in October.The plan was to ramp up production to make up for the shortfall in 2022, when component supply is expected to improve, Bloomberg reported. But Apple is now informing vendors that it may not be receiving those orders, Bloomberg added.Apple was projecting a strong quarter ending December, but expected to be short of demand, CEO Tim Cook said in the company's earnings call in October. He told analysts then that supply chain issues had already cost Apple $6 billion in sales in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter ending September 25.Apple did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 2nd, 2021

The Fed Finally Fights Inflation

In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on inflation, Louis Navellier wrote: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Markets are manic crowds and like to panic from time to time. However, our survey this week shows that only 27% of retail investors believe the Omicron variant will cause a market sell off by […] In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on inflation, Louis Navellier wrote: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Markets are manic crowds and like to panic from time to time. However, our survey this week shows that only 27% of retail investors believe the Omicron variant will cause a market sell off by the end of the year. Consumer Confidence Down Viruses mutate and tend to become less deadly over time, just like the Spanish Flu fizzled out within a couple of years.  Although Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. should be prepared to do “anything and everything” to fight the Covid-19 Omicron variant, he also added that it is “too early to say” whether we need new lockdowns or mandates.  However, it would be political suicide to impose new domestic lockdowns or mandates, so I do not expect fears over the Covid-19 Omicron variant to impact consumer confidence and spending.  Although Black Friday sales were reported to be down 28% compared to last year, the Black Friday sales this year started early, so I still expect this holiday shopping season is shaping up to set all-time records.  As an example, Commerce Department reported personal income rose 0.5% in October, while consumer spending rose 1.3%.  The personal savings rate declined to 7.3% in October.  Anytime consumers are willing to incur debt bodes well for both consumer confidence and holiday spending.  I should add that the Atlanta Fed is now estimating 8.6% annual GDP growth for the fourth quarter, which will largely be driven by robust consumer spending. The manufacturing sector also remains strong.  As an example, the Commerce Department announced that durable goods orders rose 0.5% in October.  Durable goods have risen for 15 of the past 18 months since the April 2020 pandemic low.  Core capital goods rose 0.6% in October as business spending rebuilding inventories and consumer spending remained strong.  Year to date, durable goods orders have risen 22.1%, but shipments have risen 13.1%, so businesses continue to have robust order backlogs that have been complicated by component and part shortages. When both consumers and businesses are healthy, it is effectively acting as a “one-two” punch to propel the U.S. economy and the stock market dramatically higher.  The Fed remains dovish and although the monthly quantitative easing has been curtailed from $120 billion per month to $105 billion, the decrease in quantitative easing was lower than many economists anticipated.  Furthermore, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was reappointed for a second four-year term, so the Fed is expected to remain dovish. As a result, the “Goldilocks” environment of low-interest rates and persistent quantitative easing persists.  The Wall Street Journal had a fascinating article about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and how deficit-financed governments, including the U.S., have gone beyond the point of no return without any “fear of debt.”  The fact that all the money pumping in recent years has not driven interest rates significantly higher has lured politicians into compliancy and put many central bankers in a corner where they cannot raise key interest rates too much. As an example that there is no government fear of debt, the infrastructure bill that passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be extensively modified by Senate in 2022, will be largely financed by more MMT, since hiking taxes in an election year is political suicide.  This essentially means that the Biden Administration will be putting more pressure on the Fed to continue its quantitative easing and money printing so it can continue to boost the federal government’s spending. Strong USD The other “force” helping to keep Treasury bonds low is a strong U.S. dollar.  Since late June, the WSJ Dollar index has appreciated almost 6% against major currencies.  The primary reason the U.S. dollar is rallying is due to higher government bond yields than Japan and Europe, plus a strong economic outlook.  Eventually, a stronger U.S. dollar helps to lower the prices on most important goods as well as commodities (since they are priced in U.S. dollars).  So the Fed’s argument that inflation is “transitory” has some merit, since a strong U.S. dollar will help to push down the prices of imported goods and some commodities. In the meantime, the fear of the Covid-19 Omicron variant and reduced international travel has pushed crude oil prices below $70 per barrel.  Natural gas prices are much more dependent on winter weather, since a cold winter can cause natural gas prices to surge, so energy inflation may persist a bit longer.  The good news is most of our inflation is related to food (high natural gas prices impact fertilizer costs), energy and used vehicle prices (due to the shortage of new cars due to the semiconductor chip shortage).  So much of this inflation is expected to eventually moderate by late 2022. The National Association of Realtors this week announced that existing home sales rose 7.5% in October compared to September.  In the past 12 months, existing home sales have declined 1.4%.  Mortgage rates have risen to an average of 3.22% at the end of October according to Mortgage News Daily. There are only 1.25 million homes for sale, which represents a 2.4-month inventory at the current sales pace.  Median home prices are expected to continue to rise due to tight inventories and continued low mortgage rates. The Conference Board on Tuesday announced that its consumer confidence index declined a bit to 109.5 in November.  The present situation component declined to 142.5, while the expectations component fell to 87.6.  This drop in consumer confidence is very minor and consumers were likely perturbed by the prices at the pump and other inflation that is finally starting to moderate as crude oil prices decline on the Covid-19 Omicron fear. Fed Finally Fights Inflation ADP reported on Wednesday that private payrolls rose by 534,000 in November.  I should add that economists are expecting that the Labor Department will be reporting 548,000 new November payroll jobs on Friday.  The labor force participation rate and average hourly wages will be closely scrutinized.  Clearly, everyone that wants a job can get a job in the currently ultra-tight labor market, so I hope the Fed concludes that its unemployment mandate has been fulfilled. Speaking of the Fed, Chairman Jerome Powell, who was just reappointed for a second term, before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday admitted that “The risk of higher inflation has increased.”  Furthermore, Powell also said “To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need … price stability,” then concluded by saying “To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need … price stability.”  Translated from Fedspeak, Chairman Powell basically admitted that the Fed is finally getting ready to pivot from its unemployment mandate to its inflation mandate. Chairman Powell also hinted that the Fed may further reduce its quantitative easing by saying “The economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases … perhaps a few months sooner.”  So the Fed Chairman is starting to lay the groundwork for fighting inflation in the New Year.  Amazingly, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.5% as the Fed Chairman spoke in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday announced that its manufacturing index rose to 61.1 in November.  The new orders component rose to 61.5, while the production component surged to 62.2.  The backlog of orders component slipped to 61.9 in November, which is still very healthy since any reading over 50 signals an expansion.  Overall, 13 of the 15 industries that ISM surveyed expanded in November and the manufacturing sector remains very healthy. Heard & Notable Canada taps into its strategic reserves to deal with a massive shortage of maple syrup. Worldwide demand jumped 21% prompting The Canadian group Quebec Maple Syrup Producers to release about 50 million pounds of its strategic maple syrup reserves — about half of the total stockpile. Source: NPR Updated on Dec 1, 2021, 5:09 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 1st, 2021

Learning From James Dyson

When you look back in history at some of mankind’s greatest achievements, one of the things that stands out in almost every case is that those successes came with a lot of blood, sweat and tears and an incredible amount of persistence. Often what appeared on the surface to be an “overnight success’’ actually took […] When you look back in history at some of mankind’s greatest achievements, one of the things that stands out in almost every case is that those successes came with a lot of blood, sweat and tears and an incredible amount of persistence. Often what appeared on the surface to be an “overnight success’’ actually took years to achieve. Henry Ford and his self-propelled vehicle, Walt Disney and his animated pictures, Alexander Bell and his telephone and even the Wright Brothers and their aeroplane; all were examples of people who failed many, many times before they eventually succeeded, often facing distressing financial hardship along the way. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Icahn eBook! Get our entire 10-part series on Carl Icahn and other famous investors in PDF for free! Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet or print it! Sign up below. NO SPAM EVER (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more But if you were one of these people and were inventing something that could be potentially momentous and change things forever, at what point would you give up after encountering multiple failures? After 10 attempts? 50? What about 1,000? You’d have to think you were on a road to nowhere if you had failed that many times. So how about 5,127 times? How does that grab you? Incredibly, that’s the number of hand-made prototypes James Dyson built over a four year period before he finally achieved success with his cyclonic vacuum cleaner. Labouring through trial and error, Dyson overcame a brutal patent abuse, endless rejections from both venture capitalists and the world’s leading appliance manufacturers whilst managing an ever expanding overdraft he didn’t extinguish until the age of forty-eight. Contrast that with today, Sir James Dyson is the UK’s fourth richest resident with a net worth of c.US$9.7 billion. Dyson struck on the idea of a cyclonic vacuum from his experience manufacturing his first product, the ‘Ballbarrow.’ Applying paint to the metal frame created havoc in the factory - excess waste and mess. Seeking a solution, Dyson asked around the trade and eventually arrived at a cyclonic separator. He recalled, ‘I found the centrifuge dust extraction principle of the cyclonic separator utterly fascinating.’ James Dyson’s recently published memoir, ‘James Dyson - Invention: A Life,’ is a tale of constant innovation, incredible challenges overcome and the deep resilience required to create one of today’s leading technology companies. One of my favourite insights from the book relates to the opportunity set afforded Dyson by the vacuum industry’s incumbent players. Hamilton Helmer labelled this power ‘Counter-Positioning’ in his best-selling book on competitive strategy, ‘7 Powers.’ The opportunity arises when a newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent doesn’t mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business. In the case of vacuum cleaners, the incumbents were making billions selling replacement bags to their customers. Why create a product which puts at risk that perpetual revenue stream? If there’s one thing I’ve noticed about successful business founders, it’s that there is no straight line to success. Without perseverance and resilience beyond the scope of all but the rarest of people, these businesses would die on the vine. I’ve included some of my favourite extracts below. Failure and 'Trial & Error' “This might sound boring and tedious to the outsider. I get that. But when you have set yourself an objective that, if reached, might pioneer a better solution to existing technologies and products, you become engaged, hooked and even one-track-minded. Folklore depicts invention as a flash of brilliance. That eureka moment! But it rarely is, I’m afraid. It is more about failure than ultimate success. I even thought about calling this book ‘James Dyson: Failure’, but was talked out of it because it might give the wrong impression.” “The failures began to excite me. ‘Wait a minute, that should have worked, now why didn’t it?’” “Research is about conducting experiments, accepting and even enjoying failures, but going on and on, following a theory garnered from observing the science. Invention is often more about endurance and patient observation than brainwaves.” “Learning by trail and error, or experimentation, can be exciting, the lessons learned deeply ingrained. Learning by failure is a remarkably good way of gaining knowledge. Failure is to be welcomed, rather than avoided. It should not be feared by the engineer or scientist or indeed by anyone else.” “The Ballbarrow - my first consumer product, my first solo effort - was a failure but one from which I learned valuable lessons. There was a lesson about assigning patents, another about not having shareholders. I learned the importance of having absolute control of my company and not undervaluing it.” “One of the really important principles I learned to apply was changing only one thing at a time to see what difference that one change made. People think that a breakthrough is arrived by a spark of brilliance or even a eureka thought in the bath. I wish it were for me. Eureka moments are very rare. More usually, you start off by testing a particular set-up, and by making one change at a time you start to understand what works and what fails. By that empirical means you begin the journey towards making the breakthrough, which usually happens in an unexpected way.” “I worked on the [production] line for two weeks to understand how to make the vacuum cleaner more efficiently and have watched all of our lines ever since .. I learned which components were difficult to assemble and encouraged our engineers to visit lines frequently. Most importantly, this experience helped me look as all our subsequent products to understand where production inefficiencies fell.” “Of the 5,127 prototypes I made in the coach house of the cyclone technology for my first vacuum cleaner, all but the very last one were failures. And yet, as well as painstakingly solving a problem, I was also going through a process of self-education and learning. Each failure taught me something and was a step towards a working model. I have been questioning things and learning every day ever since.” “Learning by doing, Learning by trial and error. Learning by failing. These are all effective forms of education.” “When I was trying, unsuccessfully, to raise capital to start my vacuum cleaner business, all the venture capitalists turned me down, with one even saying that they might consider the opportunity if I had someone heading up the company from the domestic appliance industry. This was at a time when that industry was vanishing from Britain because, taken as a whole, its products were uncompetitive.” Life Lessons “Every day is a form of education.” “It was playing games, however, that taught me the need to train hard and to understand teamwork and tactics. The planning of surprise tactics, and the ability to adapt to circumstance, are vital life lessons. These virtues are unlikely to be learned from academic life and certainly not from learning by rote.” “Long-distance running taught me to overcome the pain barrier: when everyone else feels exhausted, that is the opportunity to accelerate, whatever the pain, and win the race. Stamina and determination along with creativity are needed in overcoming seemingly impossible difficulties in research and other life challenges.” “Doing things with my hands, often as an autodidact and with an almost absence of fear, became second nature. Learning by making things was as important as learning by the academic route. Visceral experience is a powerful teacher. Perhaps we should pay more attention to this form of learning. Not everyone learns in the same way.” Creativity & Invention “In order to stay ahead we need to focus increasingly on our creativity.” “At Dyson, we don’t particularly value experience. Experience tells you what you ought to do and what you’d do best to avoid. It tells you how things should be done when we are much more interested in how things shouldn’t be done. If you want to pioneer and invent new technology you need to step into the unknown and, in that realm, experience can be a hindrance.” “[You] need to listen to your customers, aiming to improve products wherever necessary and, if you are an inventor, simply for improvements sake. This is not to say we at Dyson ask our customers what they want and build it. That type of focus-group-led designing may work inn the very short term, but not for long.” “I still find myself saying and putting into practice some of the same things Jeremy Fry [an early mentor/employer] said and did when I worked for him half a century ago. As an inventor, engineer and entrepreneur, he believed in taking on young people with no experience because this way he employed those with curious, unsullied and open minds.” “The inventing mind knows instinctively that there are always further questions to be asked and new discoveries to be made.” “The Land Rover, the Swiss Army penknife, the Citroen 2CV, the Bell 47 helicopter and Alec Issigoni’s Mini - what I liked so much about these machines - and my affection for them remains undimmed - is their ingenuity and the fact that the power of invention invested in them made for designs that re-imagined and revolutionised their market sectors and even created wholly new markets. And yet, for all their functionality, each is a highly individual product with a character and charm of its own. What is equally interesting is that these radical machines made use of pre-existing ideas and components.” “A design might be considered ahead of its time and, sometimes because of this, even ridiculous. The hugely successful Sony Walkman was dismissed when first launched because who could possibly want a tape recorder that couldn’t record. And it was received knowledge, until Volkswagen and, later, Honda crossed the Atlantic with the Beetle and the Accord that Americans were wedded resolutely to big cars.” “The Sony Walkman is another fascinating success story because, at first, its design appeared to defy common sense. Priced at $150, the compact silver and blue Walkman wasn’t cheap, while within Sony it was controversial and brave because it was unable to record, and no one made a ‘tape recorder’ that wouldn’t do so before… With lightweight foam headphones and no function other than playback, the Walkman emerged. The press lampooned it. Even the name was ridiculous. The Japanese press was wrong, although the market hadn’t known it wanted a tiny personal stereo. When it saw the attractive little device, and heard it in action, it fell in love with it… By the mid-1980’s, the word had entered the Oxford English Dictionary. Sony’s Masura Ibuka - one of the Japanese company’s founders - hoped to sell 5,000 Walkmans a month. He sold 50,000 in the first two months. By the time production ended in Japan in 2010, more than 400 million had been sold worldwide.” “Without entrepreneurship, an inventor may not be able to bring their radical or revolutionary products to the marketplace or at least not under their own control. Without becoming an entrepreneur, they have to licence their technology, putting them at the mercy of other companies that may or may not have a long-term commitment to a particular new idea or way of thinking about the future.” “The idea [for the cyclonic vacuum cleaner] had been in my head since welding up the giant metal cyclone for the Ballbarrow factory. Now it made increasing sense. Here was a field - the vacuum cleaner industry - where there has been no innovation for years, so the market ought to be ripe for something new. And, because houses need cleaning throughout the year, a vacuum cleaner is not, like my Ballbarrow, a seasonal product. It is also recession proof. Every household needs one. It seemed to tick all the boxes. In any case, I’d used one since childhood and knew from experience that there had to be a better vacuum cleaner.” “If you believe you can achieve something - whether as a long distance runner or maker of a wholly new type of vacuum cleaner - then you have to give the project 100% of your creative energy. You have to believe that you’ll get there in the end. You need determination, patience and willpower.” “Bio-mimicry is clearly a powerful weapon in an engineer’s armoury.” “It’s a part of the Dyson story that I made 5,127 prototypes to get a model I could set about licensing. This is indeed the exact number. Testing and making one change after another was time-consuming. This, though, was necessary as I needed to follow up and prove or disprove every theory I had. And, however frustrating, I refused to be defeated by failure. All of the 5,126 I rejected - 5,126 so-called failures - were part of the process of discovery and improvement before getting it right on the 5,127th time. Failure, as I had already begun to learn with my experience with the Ballbarrow business is very important. I find it important to repeat that we do, or certainly should, learn from our mistakes and we should be free to make them.” “Every judgement in science stands on the edge of error and is personal… I have long had great admiration for engineers like Alec Issigonis [designed the Mini] and Andrew Lefebvre of Citroen .. they questioned orthodoxy, experimented, took calculated risks, stood on the edge of error and got things right. And when they got there, they continued to ask questions.” “One of the ways we made Dyson distinctive is by not allowing ourselves to rest on our laurels.” “A jet engine spins at 15,000 rpm, a Formula 1 engine at 19,000 rpm and a conventional vacuum cleaner motor at 30,000 rpm. Why go very much faster? Although at the time we were neither designers nor manufacturers of electric motors, we wanted to come up with a breakthrough in their design, creating a quantum leap in performance: many times faster, much lighter and smaller, brushless for a longer life and no emissions, more electrically efficient and above all controllable for speed, power and consumption.. The turbine speed we initially aimed for was 120,000 rpm.. Today, Dyson pioneers the world’s smallest high-speed motors. These have enabled us to reinvent the vacuum cleaner again with a pioneering new Dyson format. They have also allowed us to improve products in wholly new areas.” “People often ask if we would supply other companies with our motors. Although it might be profitable to do so, we supply no one other than ourselves. This is because I want Dyson engineers to be 100% focused on our next exciting motor development and not retrofitting our motors to someone else’s product.” “With each new motor we aimed to double its power output and halve it’s weight.” “We had been experimenting for some time with blades of air and working with sophisticated computational fluid-dynamics models for a project that remains secret… We had accidentally developed a new form of hand dryer. What’s more it didn’t need a heater… It has a carbon footprint six times smaller than that of paper towels… Despite our inroads, the paper towel industry retains 90% of the hand-drying market, worth billions of dollars each year. The big players want to defend a highly lucrative status quo.” “As often happens, our observations during the development of the Dyson Airblade hand dryer led us to the principles used in other products, like our Air Multiplier fans and, in turn, to heaters, humidifiers and air purifiers.” “For me, [the hairdryer] was another of those products, used frequently by hundreds of millions of people, stuck in a technological time warp. Existing hairdryers were heavy and uncomfortable to use.” “Ever since the Industrial Resolution, inventions had tended to compound inventions.” “It is hard for other people to understand or get excited about an entirely new idea. This requires self-reliance and faith on part of the inventor. I can also see that it is hard for an outsider to understand the challenge and thrill of inventing new technology, designing and manufacturing the product then selling it to the world.” “After the event, a revolutionary new idea can look so obvious - surely no one could possibly have doubted it? At their conception, though, new ideas are not blindingly obvious. They are fragile things in need of encouragement and nurturing against doubting Thomases, know-it-alls and so-called experts. Just as Frank Whittle discovered, it is easy for people to say ‘no,’ to dismiss new ideas and to be stick-in-the-muds, pessimists, or even cynics. It is much harder to see how something unexpected might be a success.” “We certainly have taken big risks, with the digital electric motors, the washing machine, the electric car and our research into solid-state batteries. Not all have been commercially successful. That is the point. By its very nature, pioneering will not always be successful, otherwise it would be all too easy. We don’t start these ventures with the inevitability of success - we are all to aware we may well fail.” Obliquity “Inventors rarely set out to make money per se, and if they do theirs is more often than not a pipe dream.” “I didn’t work on those 5,127 vacuum cleaner prototypes or even set up Dyson to make money. I did it because I had a burning desire to do so. And as do my thousands of colleagues, I find inventing, researching, testing, designing and manufacturing both highly creative and deeply satisfying.” Focus Groups & Experts “Just before the launch of the Mini car, Austin Morris did indeed consult a focus group, and nobody wanted this tiny car with small wheels. So they cut the production lines down to one. When the public saw it on the street, they were most enthusiastic for it. Austin Morris never caught up with demand, missing out on serious profits.” “The bestselling British car of all time is the Mini - If market research had ruled Alec Issigoni’s roost at BMC, it would never had existed… Alec’s view [was] that ‘market research is bunk’ and that one should ‘never copy the opposition.’” “I am cautious of experts .. Experts tend to be confident that they have all the answers and because of this trait, they can kill new ideas. But when you are trying to break new ground, you have no interest in getting stuck in engineering conventions or intellectual mud.” “Venture capitalists proved to be no help. [Six] venture capitals turned me down.” “I had been warned that at £200, or at least three times as expensive as most other vacuum cleaners, the DC01 would prove to be too expensive. It sold really well.” “The marketing team, who I listened to, said to me, ‘If you make it £200 cheaper you will sell a lot more [Dyson washing machines],’ and I believed them. We made it £200 cheaper and sold exactly the same number at £899.99 as we had a £1,089 and ended up losing even more money. I had made a classic mistake. This might sound counter-intuitive, but I should have increased the price. The Contrarotator was not meant to be a low cost washing machine.” “Although there is no guarantee of success, disruptive ideas can revolutionise a company and its finances through intuition, imagination and risk-taking as opposed to market research, business plans and strategic investment.” “Early on in our story, the [Dyson vacuum cleaner’s] clear bin was another ‘clear’ example of going our own way regardless. Trusting our own instincts, we decided to ignore the research and the retailers. Pete and I had been developing the vacuum cleaner and we loved seeing the dust and the dirt. We didn’t want to hide all the hard work the machine had done. Going against established ‘experts’ was a huge risk. No one could confirm that what we were doing was a good idea. Everyone, in fact, confirmed the reverse. The data were all against it. If, however, we had believed ‘the science’ and not trusted our instincts, we would have ended up following the path of dull conformity.” Innovation, Constant Improvement & Change “I greatly admire Soichiro Honda for his addiction to the continuous improvement of products. and Takeo Fujisawa. Their genius was to think against the grain while focusing on continuous improvement. The company [Honda] continues to invest a sizeable chunk of its income into R&D, aiming for constant improvement and innovation.” “Rather like the way some sharks have to keep moving to stay alive, innovative engineering-led manufacturers need continuous innovation to stay competitive. Striving for new and better products is often what defines such companies. At Dyson, we never stand still. In a quarter of a century, we have gone from making a revolutionary vacuum cleaner to prototypes of a radical electric car. Invention tends to compound invention and companies need to be set up for this.” “What was exciting is that, although our main focus was the vacuum cleaner, our thinking was that of a tech company. How else could we evolve cyclonic technology? What other uses could we put it to?” “Investment in new technologies requires many leaps of faith and huge financial commitment over long periods.” “I believe that it is critical to keep on improving and never to relax with a product that appears to be selling well. Permanently dissatisfied is how an engineer should feel.” “Our product development process is now truly a twenty-four hours a day process.” “What I can say is that if you came back to see what Dyson’s up to in five, ten, twenty or a hundred years from now, whether with our products or through our farms, things will be very different indeed. It’s all tremendously exciting and we should have cause for optimism.” “Every day is an adventure and a response to the unexpected. Even if things appear to be in some kind of stasis, a company must move on. It has to get better, evolve and improve in order to survive. There is no greater danger than satisfaction.” “What we do know is that companies always have to change to get better at what they do, plan to do and even dream of doing in the future. The adage that the only certainty is change is true, and this means not being afraid of change even if, for a company, it means dismantling what you have built in order to rebuild it stronger or killing your own successful product with a better one, as we did with our new format battery vacuum cleaners.” Counter-Positioning “Anyone watching me at work might reasonably have wondered why Electrolux and Hoover weren’t making and selling a vacuum cleaner like mine. With all their resources, surely they could have leaped ahead of me - one man and his dog, as it were, in a rural coach house - and cornered the market between them. There were though, at least three good reasons why they didn’t even think of pursuing a similar path to me. One, which went without saying, was that the ‘No Loss of Suction’ vacuum cleaner had yet to be invented. The second was that the vacuum cleaner bag replacement business was highly profitable. And the third, to my surprise, was that well established electrical goods companies seemed remarkably uninterested in new technology. With no outside challenges, they could afford to rest on their laurels. For the moment at least.” “I went to see Electrolux, Hotpoint, Miele, Siemens, Bosch, AEG, Philips - the lot - and was rejected by every one of them. Although frustrating, what I did learn is that none of them was interested in doing something new and different. They were, as I had already understood, more interested in defending the vacuum cleaner bag market, worth more than $500 million in Europe alone at the time. Here, though was an opportunity. Might consumers be persuaded to stop spending so much on replacement bags, which, by the way, are made of spun plastic and are not biodegradable, and opt for a bag-less vacuum cleaner that offered constant suction instead? If so, I might stand a chance against these established companies.” Multi-Disciplinary Approach “I loved my time at the Royal College of Art not least because of its lively and inventive cross-disciplinary approach. Here, as I progressed, I realised that art and science, inventing and making, thinking and doing could be one and the same thing. I dared to dream that I could be an engineer, designer and manufacturer at one and the same time.” Commerciality & The ‘Art of Selling’ “Inventions, though, no matter how ingenious and exciting, are of little use unless they can be translated through engineering and design into products that stimulate or meet a need and can sell.” “Even the most worthwhile and world changing inventions, from ballpoint pen to the Harrier Jump Jet, need to be a part of the process of making and selling to succeed.” “Selling goes with manufacturing as wheels do with a bicycle. It is far more than flogging second-hand cars or contraband wristwatches. Products do not walk off shelves and into people’s homes, And when a product is entirely new, the art of selling is needed to explain it. What it is. How it works. Why you might need and want it.” “Jeremy Fry taught me not to try to pressure people into buying but to ask them lots of questions about what they did, how they worked and what they might expect of a new product. Equally, I learned that most people don’t really know exactly what they want, or if they do it’s only from what they know , what is available or possible at the time. As Henry Ford said, famously if he asked American farmers what they wanted in terms of future transport, they would have answered ‘faster horses.’ You need to show them new possibilities, new ideas and new products and explain these as lucidly as possible. Dyson advertising focuses on how our products are engineered and how they work, rather than on gimmicks and snappy sales lines.” “Word of mouth and editorial remain the best way to tell people what you have done. It is far more believable than advertising and a real compliment when intelligent journalists want to go off and talk about your product on their own free will. If you have new technology and a new product, a journalist’s opinion and comment is far more important and believable than an advertisement.” “Within eighteen months, the DC01 vacuum cleaner was the biggest seller in the UK market. Our first sales were through hefty mail order catalogues. These devoted a few pages to vacuum cleaners. We were among the last pages, at the bottom, with a small, square picture of the DC01… Ours was the most expensive in these catalogues by some margin and they were not the sort of place you would expect expensive items to be sold. Both we and the buyers at the catalogue were, in fact, astonished that DC01 did so well through their pages, with repeat orders coming in. I have never, though, believed that someone’s income is a bar to them wanting to buy the best product and a vacuum cleaner is an important purchase.” “We decided to highlight the Achilles’ heel of other vacuums - the bag and its shortcomings.” “I love the fact we tackled prosaic products, making the vacuum cleaner into a high-performance machine.” “From the beginning we decided that we would create our own publicity materials and advertising. We would not use outside agencies. This is because we want to talk fearlessly about technology, which, of course is what had driven Dyson into being. Since we have developed the technology, we should know how to explain it to others.” “I didn’t want anyone to buy our vacuum cleaner through slick advertising. I wanted them to buy it because it performed. We could be straightforward in what we said, explaining things simply and clearly.” “I believe that trustworthiness and loyalty come from striving to develop and make high performing products and then looking after customers who have bought them. I am not a believer in the theory that great marketing campaigns can replace great products. What you say should be true to who you are.” Manufacturing “Experience taught me that, ideally, a manufacturer - Dyson certainly - should aim to source as little as possible from outside the company. Those of us who drove British cars made in the 1970’s know pretty much exactly why. Poor assembly aside, what often let these cars down were components sourced from poor-quality external suppliers. Electrical failures were legion.” “Obviously at Dyson we cannot make absolutely everything on own own, but we work with suppliers so that they are in tune with us, with our manufacturing standards and our values. Because what we’re doing is special and different, we can’t go to a company like Foxconn, for example. which makes well known American, Canadian, Chinese, Finnish & Japanese electronic products. Those products are mostly made from off-the-shelf components. We design our own components. We don’t buy them off the shelf.” “You can manufacture good-quality, pioneering technology much more readily when you sit side by side with your suppliers rather than 10,000 miles away in a different time zone.” “We build close relationships with owners of factories so we can build our machines in their premises. The tooling, assembly lines and test stations are ours and we control the purchasing and quality. We don’t approach a sub-contractor and say, ‘Make me a product of this or this design.’ We tend to go to outfits which have never made vacuum cleaners before or hairdryers, robots, fans and heaters or purifiers or lights, and we teach their people to make things using our production methods. It’s a heavily engaged and involved process of learning and improvement.” “We need other factories because, expanding at the rate of 25% each year, we simply couldn’t cope with the planning and building of new factories even in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philiipines.” Going Global “I knew that if Dyson was to be a successful technology company, rather than just a British vacuum cleaner manufacturer, we couldn’t be Little Englanders. We needed to become global, and quickly. England, and the rest of the United Kingdom, is simply not a big enough market on its own to sustain the constant and huge investment technology requires.” “In 2004, we took the DC12 cylinder vacuum to Japan, calling it the ‘Dyson City.’ It was engineered specifically for the tiny, perfectly formed homes of Japan. We were amazed by its success. Within three months it had captured 20% of the Japanese market.” “Dyson has become as much an Asian business as a British one: our products are sold in eighty-three countries around the world, so we are arguably a truly global company. Having started in Britain and consistently grown in Britain, we, for some time now, sell over 95% of our products in our global markets.” Acquisitions “We are not in the business of buying up other companies. It may be a quick way to acquire technology or a business that would augment a company, but it can be difficult to assimilate the people and their ways of doing things. Usually, I feel, it’s better to start your own research project or your own business, which, although slower to begin with, develops organically and is stronger for it.” Dyson Electric Car “Because of the shifting commercial sand, we made the decision to pull out of production [of our electric car] at the very last minute. N526 was a brilliant car. Very efficient motors. Very aerodynamic. Wonderful to drive and be driven in. We just couldn’t ever have made money from it, and for all our enthusiasm for the project we were not prepared to risk the rest of Dyson.” “Fortunately, we were able to stomach the £500 million cost and survive. We did, though, push ourselves to learn a great deal in areas including batteries, robotics, air treatment, and lighting. We also learned more about virtual engineering as a tool in the design process and how, we would be able to make products more quickly and less expensively. These were all valuable lessons for the future.” Private Company & Long Term Thinking “Today, Dyson is a global company. I own it, and this really matters to me. It remains a private company. Without shareholders to hold back, we are free to take long-term and radical decisions. I have no interest in going public with Dyson because I know that this would spell the end of the company’s freedom to innovate in the way it does.” “When you own the whole company, and especially if you are free of debt, from the early days and for better or worse, all decisions are your own. So you take these very seriously and follow your own view of risk balanced, hopefully, with reward. This certainly sharpens the mind.” “We’re one family-owned company following its interest and passions.” “The advantages of a family business are that they can think in the very long term, and invest in the long term, in ways public companies are unable to do. I also believe that family-owned enterprises have a spirit, conscience and philosophy often lacking in public companies.” Win-Win & ESG “In our first year in Currys [retailer], Mark Souhami, one of the bosses alongside the founder Stankley Kalms, invited me to lunch with them both. They explained that because of Dyson they were now making a profit in their vacuum cleaner section and he wanted more Dyson products.” “I have always loathed companies that use ‘greenwash’ as part of their marketing. I would rather reduce our environmental impact quietly and by action. We were, and remain, a company primarily of engineers and because of this we have sought from the outset to use as little energy or materials as possible to solve or complete one particular task. Lean engineering is good engineering.” “For me, as for all Dyson engineers, lightness - lean engineering and material efficiency - is a guiding principle. Using less material means using less energy in the process of making things. It also means lighter products that need less energy to power them and are easier to handle and so more pleasurable to use.” “Dyson has always focused on making long-lasting machines that use fewer resources while achieving higher performance. Lighter machines resulting from developing new technology and reinventing the format, consumer less energy and are not only better for the planet but also more pleasurable to use. Our cord-free vacuum cleaners, for instance, are a fraction of the weight and use a fraction of the electricity than their predecessors did. This has come about by taking an entirely different approach and developing new technology, motors and batteries, from the ground up.” “We must move ever closer to a culture whereby we minimise the use of materials through lean engineering along with the recycling of products at the end of their lives. It’s not just okay to politely offset our carbon footprint. We have to deal with it at source.” “As Dyson, we are trying at every turn to touch the ground lightly in everything we do, to make more from less and to create a circular system through which we aim to recycle everything we use.” Removing Middlemen “Over the past three years we had been striving to sell more products direct to our customers ourselves, either online or through Dyson Demo stores. By early 2021 we had 356 Dyson stores. We have been opening them around the world so that customers can try our Dyson products in the best possible way. There are two reasons for this. First, we like to have a direct relationship with our customers, who are buying our product for which we are responsible, and we want to know how we can help them. Secondly, retailers around the world are declining in numbers and sales. They are nothing like the force they were, due of course to the decline of the high street and the rise of internet shopping. If you want to buy from a website, why not buy from the Dyson website! Why not deal directly with the manufacturer?’” “When I started out with the vacuum cleaner business, wholesales and retailers made most of the money .. which is why today a lot of our sales at Dyson are direct.” “Cutting out the middleman, and those who add no value, ought to be a popular national campaign. It would mean a possibility of profit for risk takers and producers, and lower prices for consumers.” Listen to Customers “Listening to what our users say is gold dust and I really enjoy reading or hearing about complaints. We devised a system of reporting all remarks heard by customers in stores or by store salespeople from all over the world, so that everyone in the company can see this priceless intelligence.” Optimism “I have great faith that science and technology can solve problems, from more sustainable and efficient products to the production of more and better food, and a more sustainable world. It is technological and scientific breakthroughs, far more than messages of doom, that will lead to this world. We need to go forwards optimistically into the future as if into the light, and with bright new ideas rather than darkness and end to human ingenuity portrayed by doomsayers.” “The depressing thing is that harbingers of doom and gloom get far more attention than optimists and problem solvers. I feel very strongly that progress should be embraced and encouraged, and it is a duty of governments and companies to catalyse the ideas of the progressive and harness them to achieve good ends.” Summary Most people would consider someone who’d failed 5,126 times and succeeded just once, a failure. Yet, that’s exactly what James Dyson did. That one success was the acorn that grew into a $US10 billion dollar fortune (talk about asymmetric returns!) There’s a myriad of lessons for inventors, investors and entrepreneurs in the pages of this book. Many of the lessons are equally applicable to each endeavour; maintaining focus, taking a long term view, continuously learning, challenging conventional wisdom and adopting a multi-disciplinary mindset. As you delve into the story an investment case emerges and the pieces of the puzzle start to fit together. An inventive fanatic full of passion, tenacity, resilience and self-belief recognises a prosaic industry that’s been neglected by technology and ripe for disruption. The target market is huge and somewhat immune from the vagaries of the economic cycle. A kernel of inventive insight, a variant perception on consumers preparedness to pay more for quality products and constant iteration leads to the development of a revolutionary product. Driven by a purpose beyond wealth accumulation (obliquity), a ‘technology’ business emerges. Full control of the ecosystem and intellectual property become further competitive attributes difficult to challenge. As technology compounds (a’la Brian Arthur) the barriers to competition widen. The tone is set from the top - a culture of continuous innovation and rejecting the status quo flourishes. Risk taking on a scale where failure is tolerable (a’la Palchinsky principle) is encouraged, creating new possibilities. Private ownership and low debt affords a long term view - no one is watching the quarterly shot clock. While there is no spreadsheet or financial model, there is a full scale mental model, or theory, developing. The component mental models, together, shed light on the Dyson company’s extraordinary success. My contention is this latter model will prove more useful in determining whether Dyson will continue to prosper in the future. Let’s not forget however, that without James Dyson, there would be no Dyson. Like many of the great businesses we’ve studied, it started with a fanatic. Source: ‘James Dyson - Invention: A Life,’ James Dyson, Simon & Schuster, 2021. Further Learning: ‘James Dyson - Invention: A Life - Interactive Portal.’ Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest * NEW * Visit the Blog Archive Article by Investment Masters Class Updated on Nov 22, 2021, 3:44 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 22nd, 2021

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low Price action has been generally uninspiring, with US index futures and European stocks flat after UK inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, while Asian markets fell as investors fretted over early rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after strong retail earnings dented the stagflation narrative.  Ten-year Treasury yields held around 1.63% and the dollar was steady. Cryptocurrencies suffered a broad selloff, while oil extended losses amid talk of a coordinated U.S.-China release of reserves to tame prices. Gold rose. At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.0.3% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.15%, boosted by gains in Tesla and other electric car-makers amid growing demand for EV makers. Target Corp was the latest big-name retailer to report positive results, as it raised its annual forecasts and beat profit expectations, citing an early start in holiday shopping. But similar to Walmart, shares of the retailer fell 3.1% in premarket trade as its third-quarter margins were hit by supply-chain issues. Lowe's rose 2.2% after the home improvement chain raised its full-year sales forecast on higher demand from builders and contractors, as well as a strong U.S. housing market. Wall Street indexes had ended higher on Tuesday after data showed retail sales jumped in October, and Walmart and Home Depot both flagged strength in consumer demand going into the holiday season. While the readings showed that a rise in inflation has not stifled economic growth so far, any further gains in prices could potentially dampen an economic recovery. Indeed, even as global stocks trade near all-time highs, worries are rising that growth could be derailed by inflation, the resurgent virus, or both. The question remains whether the jump in costs will prove transitory or become a bigger challenge that forces a sharper monetary policy response, roiling both shares and bonds. The market now sees a 19% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in their March 2022 meet, up from 11.8% probability last month. “The markets are still driven by uncertainty regarding how transitory inflation is,” according to Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “The market is assessing the situation about inflation -- what is in the price and what is not.” On the earnings front, Baidu reported a 13% jump in sales after growth in newer businesses such as the cloud helped offset a slowdown in its main internet advertising division. Nvidia and Cisco Systems are scheduled to report results later today In premarket trading, Tesla inexplicably rose as much as 2.4% in U.S. pre-market trading, extending a bounce from the previous session after CEO Elon Musk disclosed even more stock sales. Peers Rivian and Lucid added 0.9% and 8.8%, respectively. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Electric-vehicle makers Rivian Automotive (RIVN US), Lucid (LCID US) and Canoo (GOEV US) all move higher in U.S. premarket trading on heavy volumes, extending their gains and after Rivian and Lucid notched up milestones in their market values on Tuesday. The gains for Rivian on Tuesday saw its market capitalization surpass Germany’s Volkswagen, while Lucid’s market value leapfrogged General Motors and Ford. Tesla (TSLA US) shares rise 1.3% in U.S. premarket trading, extending the bounce the EV maker saw in the prior session and after CEO Elon Musk disclosed more share sales. Visa (V US) shares slip in U.S. premarket trading after Amazon.com said it will stop accepting payments using Visa credit cards issued in the U.K. starting next year. Boeing (BA US) gains 1.9% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo upgrades the airplane maker to overweight from equal weight in a note, saying the risk-reward is now skewed positive. Citi initiates a pair trade of overweight Plug Power (PLUG US) and underweight Ballard Power Systems (BLDP US), downgrading the latter to neutral on weak sales in China and likely delay in meaningful fuel cell adoption. Ballard Power falls 3.4% in premarket trading. La-Z-Boy (LZB US) climbed 7% in postmarket trading after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal second quarter of 2022 that beat the average analyst estimate and boosted its quarterly dividend. StoneCo’s (STNE US) shares fall as much as 9% in postmarket trading Tuesday after the fintech reported a weaker-than-expected adjusted results for the third quarter. Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI US) rose 11% in extended trading after saying it submitted an Emergency Use Authorization application to the U.S FDA for its new DPP SARS-CoV-2 Antigen test. European stocks treaded water with U.S. equity futures as the worst outbreak of Covid infections since the start of the pandemic held the rally in check. In the U.K., inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, pressing on the FTSE 100 to lag peer markets. Asian stocks fell, halting a four-day rally, as investors factored in higher Treasury yields and the outlook for U.S. monetary policy to assess whether the region’s recent gains were excessive.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.7%, pulling back from a two-month high reached Tuesday. The banking sector contributed the most to Wednesday’s drop as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported cash earnings that were below some estimates. South Korea led the region’s decline, with the Kospi falling more than 1%, weighed down by bio-pharmaceutical firms. Asia’s stocks are taking a breather from a run-up driven by expectations for earnings to improve and economies to recover from quarters of pandemic-induced weakness. The benchmark is coming off a two-week gain of 1.5%.  “Shares are correcting recent gains, although I’d say it’s not much of a correction as the drop is mild,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “The relatively solid economic performances in the U.S. and Europe signal positive trends for Asian exporters,” which will support equities over the long term, he said.  U.S. stocks climbed after data showed the biggest increase in U.S. retail sales since March, while results from Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. showed robust demand. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.64%, gaining for a fourth day. Japanese equities fell, cooling off after a four-day advance despite the yen’s drop to the lowest level against the dollar since 2017. Service providers and retailers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which dropped 0.6%. Recruit and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.4% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended its decline after tumbling 0.6% against the greenback on Tuesday. The value of Japan’s exports gained 9.4% in October, the slowest pace in eight months, adding to signs that global supply constraints are still weighing on the economy. Indian stocks fell, led by banking and energy companies, as worries over economic recovery and inflation hurt investors’ sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 60,008.33 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by 0.6%. The benchmark index has now dropped for five of seven sessions and is off 3.7% its record level reached on Oct. 18. All but five of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of real estate companies.  Fitch Ratings kept a negative outlook on India’s sovereign rating, already at the lowest investment grade, citing concerns over public debt that’s the highest among similar rated emerging-market sovereigns.  While high-frequency data suggests India’s economic recovery is taking hold, central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at an event on Tuesday that the recovery is uneven. “Feeble global cues are weighing on sentiment,” Ajit Mishra, a strategist with Religare Broking, said in a note. He expects indexes to slide further but the pace of decline to be gradual with Nifty having support at 17,700-17,800 level. Shares of Paytm are scheduled to start trading on Thursday after the digital payment company raised $2.5b in India’s biggest initial share sale. Local markets will be closed on Friday for a holiday.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.1%. The index heavyweight has lost 5% this week, headed for the biggest weekly drop since June 27. In rates, Treasuries were steady with yields slightly richer across the curve and gilts mildly outperforming after paring early losses. Treasury yields except 20-year are richer by less than 1bp across curve with 30-year sector outperforming slightly; 10-year yields around 1.63% after rising as high as 1.647% in early Asia session. Focal points for U.S. session include 20-year bond auction -- against backdrop of Fed decision to not taper in the sector, made after last week’s poorly bid 30-year bond sale, and seven Fed speakers scheduled. The $23BN 20-year new issue at 1pm ET is first at that size after cuts announced this month; WI yield at 2.06% is 4bp richer than last month’s, which tailed the WI by 2.5bp. In Europe, gilts richen slightly across the short end, short-sterling futures fade an open drop after a hot inflation print. Peripheral spreads are marginally wider to core. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drifted after earlier rising to its highest level in over a year, spurred by strong U.S. retail sales and factory output data Tuesday; the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers though most currencies were consolidating recent losses against the greenback. The pound reached its strongest level against the euro in nearly nine months after U.K. inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The Australian dollar hit a six-week low as third quarter wage data missed the central bank’s target, prompting offshore funds to sell the currency; the three-year yield fell back under 1%. The yen declined to its lowest level in more than four years as growing wagers of quicker policy normalization in the U.S. contrasted with the outlook in Japan, where interest rates are expected to be kept low. Super-long bonds fell. Volatility broke through the recent calm in currency markets, where the cost of hedging against volatility in the euro against the dollar over the next month climbed the most since the pandemic struck in March 2020. The move comes as traders bake in bets on faster rate hikes to curb inflation. The Turkish lira extended the week’s downward move, weakening another 2% against the dollar after comments from Erdogan sent the USDTRY hitting record highs of 10.5619 The Chinese yuan advanced to its highest level since 2015 against a basket of trading partners’ currencies following the dollar’s surge. Bloomberg’s replica of the CFETS basket index rises 0.3% to 101.9571, closer to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the PBOC in 2015, testing the central bank’s tolerance before stepping in with intervention. In commodities, crude futures dropped as the market weighs the potential for a join U.S.-China stockpile-reserve release. WTI is down more than 1%, back on a $79-handle; Brent slips back toward $81.50, trading near the middle of this week’s range. Most base metals are under pressure with LME copper down as much as 1.4%. Spot gold adds $10 near $1,860/oz. European gas surged to the highest level in a month as delays to a controversial new pipeline from Russia stoked fears of a supply shortage with winter setting in. Cryptocurrencies remained lower after a tumble, with Bitcoin steadying around the $60,000 level. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,696.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 489.79 MXAP down 0.5% to 200.06 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 656.01 Nikkei down 0.4% to 29,688.33 Topix down 0.6% to 2,038.34 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 25,650.08 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,537.37 Sensex down 0.4% to 60,064.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,369.93 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,962.42 Brent Futures down 0.8% to $81.79/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,859.93 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.95 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.25% Euro little changed at $1.1310 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Bond traders are bracing for a key test Wednesday as the Treasury looks to sell its first long-dated debt since inflation worries spooked buyers at last week’s poorly received 30-year auction Increasingly stretched prices in property and financial markets, risk-taking by non-banks and elevated borrowing pose a threat to euro-area stability, the European Central Bank warned Germany is giving investors a rare chance to grab some of Europe’s safest and positive-yielding debt. The country will sell one billion euros ($1.13 billion) of its longest-dated debt at 10:30 a.m. London on Wednesday. The country’s 30-year notes are currently trading with a yield 0.09%. It’s a paltry rate, but probably the last time for a while that Germany will offer the maturity ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn says euro- area inflation is accelerating due to increasing demand pushing up the price of energy and supply bottlenecks, according to interview in Finland’s Talouselama magazine The yuan’s advance to a six-year high versus China’s trading partners this week has investors asking how far the central bank will let the rally run. The yuan extended gains on Wednesday against a basket of 24 currencies of the nation’s trading partners, bringing it close to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the People’s Bank of China in 2015 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to continue fighting for lower interest rates, sending a clear signal to investors a day before the central bank sets its policy. The lira weakened A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed and struggled to sustain the positive lead from the US where better than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data spurred the major indices, in which the S&P 500 reclaimed the 4,700 level and briefly approached to within four points of its all-time high. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was led lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector amid weakness in the largest lender CBA despite a 20% jump in quarterly cash profit, as operating income was steady and it noted that loan margins were significantly lower. Mining related stocks also lagged in Australia due to the recent declines in global commodity prices amid the stronger USD and higher US yields. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) retraced its opening gains after disappointing Machinery Orders and miss on Exports which grew at the slowest pace in eight months, while the KOSPI (-1.2%) suffered due to virus concerns with daily infections at the second highest on record for South Korea. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were varied with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech stocks including NetEase post-earnings, while the mainland was choppy as markets continued to digest the recent Biden-Xi meeting that was described by President Biden as a 'good meeting' and in which they discussed the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks. US and China also agreed to provide access to each other’s journalists, although there were also comments from Commerce Secretary Raimondo that China is not living up to phase 1 trade commitments and it was reported that China is to speed up plans to replace US and foreign tech. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand hampered following the declines in T-notes, although downside was stemmed amid the flimsy sentiment across Asia-Pac trade and with the BoJ also in the market for JPY 925bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Set to Snap Four-Day Advance as Kospi Leads Decline Gold Rises as Fed Officials Feed Debate on Inflation Response Deadly Toxic Air Chokes Delhi as India Clings to Coal Power PBOC May Start Raising Rates by 10bps Every Quarter in 2022: TD European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) trade with little in the way of firm direction as the Stoxx 600 lingers around its ATH printed during yesterday’s session. The handover from the APAC session was mostly a softer one after the region failed to sustain the positive lead from the US which saw the S&P 500 approach within four points of its all-time high. Stateside, US futures are just as uninspiring as their European counterparts (ES flat) ahead of another busy day of Fed speak and pre-market earnings from retail names Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJK) with Cisco (CSCO) and NVIDIA (NVDA) due to report after-hours. Markets still await a decision on the next Fed Chair which President Biden said will come in around four days yesterday; as it stands, PredictIt assigns a circa 65% chance of Powell winning the renomination. Sectors in Europe have a marginal positive tilt with Media names outperforming peers alongside gains in Vivendi (+1.0%) after Italian prosecutors asked a judge to drop a case against Vivendi's owner and CEO for alleged market manipulation. Travel & Leisure names are the notable underperformer amid losses in sector heavyweight Evolution Gaming (-9.6%) who account for 14% of the sector with the Co. accused of taking illegal wagers. In terms of individual movers, Siemens Healthineers (+4.6%) is one of the best performers in the region after the Co. noted that revenues are on track to grow 6-8% between 2023 and 2025. UK Banking names such as Lloyds (+1.3%) and Natwest (+1.1%) have benefitted from the favourable rate environment in the UK with today’s inflation data further cementing expectations for a move in rates by the BoE next month. Conversely, this acted as a drag on the UK homebuilder sector at the open before moves were eventually scaled back. SSE (-4.5%) underperforms after announcing a GBP 12.5bln investment to accelerate its net zero ambitions. Top European News Epstein’s Paris Apartment Listed for $14 Million, Telegraph Says Volkswagen Shares Stall as Analysts Doubt Its EV Street Cred Germany to Move Ahead With Tighter Covid Curbs Amid Record Cases U.K. Urges EU Not to Start Trade War If Brexit Deal Suspended In FX, the Greenback extended Tuesday’s post-US retail sales and ip gains to set new 2021/multi-year highs overnight when the index hit 96.266 and several Dollar pairs probed or crossed psychological round numbers. However, the latest bull run has abated somewhat amidst some recovery gains in certain rival currencies and a general bout of consolidation ahead of housing data, another raft of Fed speakers and Usd 23 bn 20 year supply that will be of note after a bad debut for new long londs last week, not to mention tepid receptions for 3 and 10 year offerings prior to that. NZD/AUD - A marked change in the tide down under as the Aud/Nzd cross reverses sharply from around 1.0450 to sub-1.0400 and gives the Kiwi enough impetus to regain 0.7000+ status vs its US peer with extra incentive provided by NZ PM Ardern announcing that the entire country is expected to end lockdown and move to a new traffic light system after November 29, while Auckland’s domestic borders will reopen from December 15 for the fully vaccinated and those with negative COVID-19 tests. Conversely, the Aussie is struggling to stay within sight of 0.7300 against its US counterpart in wake of broadly in line Q3 wage prices that leaves the y/y rate still some way short of the 3% pace deemed necessary to lift overall inflation by the RBA. GBP/CAD - Sterling is striving to buck the overall trend with help from more forecast-topping UK data that should give the BoE a green light for lifting the Bank Rate in December, as headline CPI came in at 4.2% y/y, core at 3.4% and PPI prints indicate more price pressure building in the pipeline. Cable printed a minor new w-t-d peak circa 1.3474 in response before waning and Eur/Gbp fell below the prior y-t-d low and 0.8400, but is now back above awaiting more news on the Brexit front and a speech from one of the less hawkish MPC members, Mann. Elsewhere, the Loonie is hovering around 1.2550 vs the Greenback and looking toward Canadian inflation for some fundamental direction as oil prices continue to fluctuate near recent lows, but Usd/Cad may also be attracted to decent option expiry interest between 1.2540-55 in 1.12 bn. CHF/EUR/JPY - All straddling or adjacent to round numbers against the Dollar, but the Franc lagging below 0.9300 on yield differentials, while the Euro has recovered from a fresh 2021 trough under 1.1300 and Fib support at 1.1290 to fill a gap if nothing else, and the Yen just defended 115.00 irrespective of disappointing Japanese machinery orders and internals within the latest trade balance. In commodities, WTI and Brent benchmarks are pressured this morning but the magnitude of the action, circa USD 0.70/bbl at the time of writing, is less pronounced when compared to the range of the week thus far and particularly against last week’s moves. Newsflow has been slim and the downside action has arisen without fresh catalysts or drivers; note, participants are cognisant of influence perhaps being exerted by today’s WTI Dec’21 option expiry. To briefly surmise the morning’s action, Vitol executives provided bullish commentary citing limited capacity to deal with shocks and on that theme, there were reports of an explosion at an oil pipeline in Southern Iran, said to be due to aging equipment. This, alongside reports that Belarus is restricting oil flows to Poland for three-days for maintenance purposes, have not steadied the benchmarks. Elsewhere, last night’s private inventories were mixed but bullish overall, with the headline a smaller than expected build and gasoline a larger than expected draw. On gasoline, some desks posit that this draw may serve to increase pressure for a US SPR release, and as such look to today’s EIA release which is expected to print a gasoline draw of 0.575M. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer this morning but, in a similar vein to crude, remain well within familiar ranges as specific catalysts have been light and initial USD action has largely fizzled out to the index pivoting the U/C mark. More broadly, base metals are pressured as inventories of iron ore are at their highest for almost three years in China as demand drops, with this having a knock-on impact on coking coal, for instance. US Event Calendar 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.5% 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits, est. 1.63m, prior 1.59m, revised 1.59m 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits MoM, est. 2.8%, prior -7.7%, revised -7.8% 8:30am: Oct. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -1.6%; Housing Starts, est. 1.58m, prior 1.56m DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap Even as inflation jitters remained on investors’ radars, that didn’t prevent risk assets pushing onto fresh highs yesterday, as investor sentiment was bolstered by strong economic data and decent corporate earnings releases. In fact by the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.39%) had closed just -0.02% beneath its all-time closing record, in a move that also brought the index’s YTD gains back above +25%, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.17%) hit an all-time high as it posted its 16th gain in the last 18 sessions. Starting with the data, we had a number of positive US releases for October out yesterday, which echoed the strength we’d seen in some of the other prints, including the ISMs and nonfarm payrolls that had both surprised to the upside in the last couple of weeks. Headline retail sales posted their biggest gain since March, with a +1.7% advance (vs. +1.4% expected), whilst the measure excluding autos and gas stations was also up by a stronger-than-expected +1.4% (vs. +0.7% expected). Then we had the industrial production numbers, which showed a +1.6% gain in October (vs. +0.9% expected), though it’s worth noting around half of that increase was a recovery from Hurricane Ida’s effects. And that came against the backdrop of solid earnings results from Walmart and Home Depot as well earlier in the session. They saw Walmart raise their full-year guidance for adjusted EPS to around $6.40, up from $6.20-$6.35 previously, whilst Home Depot reported comparable sales that were up +6.1%. To be honest it was difficult to find much in the way of weak data, with the NAHB’s housing market index for November up to a 6-month high of 83 (vs. 80 expected). Amidst the optimism however, concerns about near-term (and longer-term) inflation pressures haven’t gone away just yet, and the 5yr US breakeven rose again, increasing +1.1bps yesterday to an all-time high of 3.21%. Bear in mind that just 12 days ago (before the upside CPI release) that measure stood at 2.89%, so we’ve seen a pretty sizeable shift in investor expectations in a very short space of time as they’ve reacted to the prospect inflation won’t be as transitory as previously believed. The increase was matched by a +1.3bps increase in nominal 5yr yields to a post-pandemic high of 1.27%. The 10yr yield also saw a slight gain of +1.9bps to close at 1.63%, and this morning is up a further +0.7bps. Against this backdrop, the dollar index (+0.58%) strengthened further to its highest level in over a year yesterday, though the reverse picture has seen the euro weaken beneath $1.13 this morning for the first time since July 2020. Speaking of inflation, there were fresh pressures on European natural gas prices yesterday, which surged by +17.81% to €94.19 per megawatt-hour. That’s their biggest move higher in over a month, and follows the decision from the German energy regulator to temporarily suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, adding further short-term uncertainty to the winter outlook. UK natural gas futures (+17.15%) witnessed a similar surge, and their US counterparts were also up +3.19%. Elsewhere in the energy complex, Brent crude (+0.46%) oil prices moved higher as well. Overnight in Asia, equity indices are trading lower this morning including the CSI (-0.05%), the Nikkei (-0.45%) and the Hang Seng (-0.55%), though the Shanghai Composite (+0.19%) has posted a modest advance. There were also some constructive discussions in the aftermath of the Biden-Xi summit the previous day, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying that the two had spoken about the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks, which could offer the prospect of a further easing in tensions if they do come about. Looking forward, futures are indicating a muted start in US & Europe later on, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) and the DAX (-0.15%) pointing to modest declines. Elsewhere, markets are still awaiting some concrete news on who might be nominated as the next Fed Chair, though President Biden did say to reporters that an announcement would be coming “in about four days”, so investors will be paying close attention to any announcements. Senator Sherrod Brown, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, who earlier in the week noted a pick was imminent, followed up by proclaiming he was “certain” that the Senate would confirm either of Chair Powell or Governor Brainard. Staying on the US, as Congress waits for the Congressional Budget Office’s score on Biden’s social and climate spending bill, moderate Democratic Senator Manchin noted continued uncertainty about the bill’s anti-inflationary bona fides. Elsewhere, the impending debt ceiling has worked its way back into the spotlight, with Treasury Secretary Yellen saying that she’ll soon provide updates on how much cash the Treasury will have to pay the government’s bills. The market has started to price in at least some risk, with yields on Treasury bills maturing in mid-to-late December higher than neighbouring maturities, and the Washington Post’s Tony Romm tweeted yesterday that the new deadline that the Treasury was expected to share soon was on December 15. Turning to Germany, coalition negotiations are continuing between the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP, and yesterday saw SPD general secretary Lars Klingbeil state that “The goal is very clear, to have a completed coalition agreement in the next week”. We’ve heard similar comments from the Greens’ general secretary, Michael Kellner, who also said that “We aim to achieve a coalition agreement next week". One issue they’ll have to grapple with is the resurgence in Covid-19 cases there, and Chancellor Merkel and Vice Chancellor Scholz (who would become chancellor if agreement on a traffic-light coalition is reached) are set to have a video conference with regional leaders tomorrow on the issue. Staying on the pandemic, it’s been reported by the Washington Post that the Biden administration will announce this week that it plans to purchase 10 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid pill. The company will submit data for the pill to regulators before Thanksgiving. It’s not just the US that will benefit from Pfizer’s pill however, as the pharmaceutical company will also license generic, inexpensive versions of the pill to low- and middle-income countries, which should be a global boost in the fight against the virus. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the main release came from the UK employment numbers, which showed that the number of payrolled employees rose by +160k in October, whilst the unemployment rate in the three months to September fell to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected). That release was better than the Bank of England’s MPC had expected in their November projections, and sterling was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday (+0.06% vs. USD) as the statistics were seen strengthening the case for a December rate hike. In response to that, gilts underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr yields up +2.7bps. That contrasted with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps), OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-2.6bps), which all moved lower on the day. Interestingly, that divergence between bunds and treasury yields widened further yesterday, moving up to 188bps, the widest since late-April. To the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/17/2021 - 07:50.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytNov 17th, 2021

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling Announces Third Quarter 2021 Results

CLEVELAND, Nov. 2, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Quarter Highlights:  Q3 2021 bookings increased 63.4% over Q3 2020 levels, but were down 20.9% from Q2 2021 record levels as the global lift truck market moderated Q3 2021 revenues increased 14.7% over Q3 2020 due to a 12.6% increase in shipments Despite improved shipments and record backlog levels, Q3 2021 production and shipments continue to be severely disrupted by component availability Q3 2021 consolidated operating loss of $54.3 million due to the following: At the Lift Truck and Bolzoni businesses, material and freight cost inflation and manufacturing variances driven by component shortages and higher operating expenses resulting from the elimination of cost containment actions put in place in 2020 At Nuvera, inventory and fixed asset adjustments totaling $24.8 million were recorded in Q3 2021 due to reduced near-term sales prospects. Q3 2021 consolidated net loss of $77.2 million includes a $38.4 million charge to establish a valuation allowance primarily on certain U.S. deferred tax assets, as well as the after-tax impact of the Nuvera adjustments Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. (NYSE:HY) today announced consolidated revenues of $748.2 million, an operating loss of $54.3 million and a net loss of $77.2 million, or a loss of $4.59 per share, for the third quarter of 2021 compared with consolidated revenues of $652.4 million, operating profit of $7.3 million and net income of $5.1 million, or $0.30 per share, for the third quarter of 2020. For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, the Company reported consolidated revenues of $2.2 billion, an operating loss of $45.3 million and a net loss of $69.7 million, or a loss of $4.15 per share, compared with consolidated revenues of $2.1 billion, operating profit of $36.2 million and net income of $24.0 million, or $1.43 per share, for the first nine months of 2020. At September 30, 2021, the Company's cash on hand was $61.4 million and debt was $428.0 million compared with cash on hand of $87.5 million and debt of $345.7 million at June 30, 2021. As of September 30, 2021, the Company had unused borrowing capacity of approximately $245.9 million under the Company's revolving credit facilities compared with $313.9 million at June 30, 2021. Segment Financial Results Summary results for the Company's three business segments were as follows for the third quarter of 2021 and 2020: (in millions) *Hyster-Yale Group *Bolzoni *Nuvera Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Revenues $ 703.8 $ 618.7 $ 90.0 $ 63.3 $ 0.2 $ 0.7 Gross Profit (Loss) $ 66.9 $ 94.3 $ 15.2 $ 12.1 $ (16.5) $ (2.7) Operating Profit (Loss) $ (21.3) $ 16.2 $ — $ 0.1 $ (32.5) $ (8.7) Net Income (Loss) $ (34.8) $ 11.6 $ 2.2 $ 0.1 $ (38.1) $ (6.1) *For purposes of this release, Hyster-Yale Group refers to the Company's Lift Truck business, Bolzoni is the Attachment business and Nuvera is the Fuel Cell business. Hyster-Yale Group Results Hyster-Yale Group unit shipments, bookings and backlog were as follows: ($ in millions) Quarter Ended September 30, 2021 Quarter Ended June 30, 2021 Quarter Ended September 30, 2020 Unit Shipments 23,200 22,700 20,600 Unit Bookings 37,100 46,900 22,700 Unit Bookings $ Value $910 $1,070 $545 Unit Backlog 98,800 84,900 33,600 Unit Backlog $ Value $2,450 $2,070 $910 The lift truck market continued to grow in the 2021 third quarter, increasing approximately 23% over the prior year quarter but at a more moderate pace than in the first half of the year. Compared with the 2021 second quarter, the market decreased more than 14% due to downturns in all markets except Latin America. In the third quarter of 2021, bookings increased significantly compared with the prior year third quarter due to a higher market as a result of increased economic activity, share gains, long lead times and the pull forward of orders ahead of price increases, but were lower than the record levels experienced in the second quarter of 2021. Despite continued high bookings levels, unit shipments were only modestly higher than the 2021 second quarter due to significant component shortages caused by ongoing global supply chain and logistics constraints. These factors led to a large increase in backlog compared with the 2021 second quarter, and to a new historically high backlog level, which has extended delivery lead times substantially. The average bookings sales price per unit increased compared with the 2021 second quarter and the prior-year quarter because the Company continued to increase prices to offset material and freight cost inflation. The increase in prices also translated into a modest increase in the current average sales price per unit of backlog compared with the 2021 second quarter, but the average value decreased from the prior year third quarter because of a change in the mix of products due in part to a significant increase in orders for lower-priced trucks in the Americas over the past year. Throughout the first nine months of the year, the Company's ability to ship product was significantly constrained by parts shortages. These shortages, which worsened in the third quarter, arose due to shipping space availability in China, congestion at U.S. ports and a shortage of trucks available to move the goods once they are received at U.S. ports as a result of a general lack of truck availability and labor shortages. All of these factors have limited the Company's ability to receive parts at their originally scheduled times. The Company has put significant effort into securing components through other channels including different shipping methods and other vendors. However, the limited availability of alternative shipping methods and the build-to-order, highly configured nature of the Company's components means that alternative vendors that can provide the necessary components are very limited, and therefore counteracting these constraints successfully is very difficult. Despite these component shortage, revenues in the Lift Truck segment increased 13.8% in the third quarter of 2021 over the third quarter of 2020 primarily as a result of higher unit and parts volumes, mainly due to a 2,600 unit increase in shipments in all classes except Class 1 electric trucks. Favorable currency movements of $6.7 million and the favorable effect of price increases put in place to mitigate the impact of material and freight cost inflation also contributed to the improvement in Lift Truck revenues. Geographic Segment Results (in millions, except units) Americas** EMEA** JAPIC** Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Unit Shipments 13,700 12,000 6,200 5,400 3,300 3,200 Revenues $ 494.3 $ 426.9 $ 153.4 $ 143.8 $ 56.1 $ 48.0 Gross Profit $ 44.5 $ 65.7 $ 18.5 $ 22.4 $ 3.9 $ 6.2 Operating Profit (Loss) $ (16.9) $ 16.1 $ (0.9) $ 3.3 $ (3.5) $ (3.2) **The Americas segment includes the North America, Latin America and Brazil markets, EMEA includes operations in the Europe, Middle East and Africa markets, and JAPIC includes operations in the Asia and Pacific markets, including China. Overall, the Lift Truck business generated an operating loss of $21.3 million compared with operating profit of $16.2 million in the third quarter of 2020 despite higher revenues. The substantial decline was primarily due to a significant decrease in gross profit and higher operating expenses in the Americas and EMEA segments. Gross profit declined primarily due to cost increases of $37.2 million driven by significant material cost and freight inflation, net of price increases of $5.5 million, and a shift in sales mix to lower-margin lift trucks. Additionally, component shortages resulting from supply chain and logistics constraints had a severe impact on the Company's ability to produce and ship products out of backlog, resulting in manufacturing costs $6.4 million higher than the 2020 third quarter. The realization of higher margins on parts sales and higher unit volumes partly offset these significantly increased material and freight costs. Operating expenses increased mainly as a result of the reinstatement of pre-pandemic salaries and benefits that were suspended in 2020. While all three of the geographic Lift Truck segments were affected by these unfavorable increases in material and freight costs, the Americas segment experienced the greatest impact. Despite a 15.8% increase in revenues resulting from higher unit and parts volumes in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the prior year quarter, the Americas generated an operating loss of $16.9 million compared to operating profit of $16.1 million in the third quarter of 2020. The Americas loss was largely due to a $32.8 million increase in material and freight costs and higher manufacturing costs as a result of inefficiencies associated with component shortages that constrained the Americas' ability to ship product. In the third quarter of 2021, the EMEA segment experienced production delays and higher costs, but to a lesser extent than in the Americas. Revenues increased 6.7% compared with the 2020 third quarter. EMEA reported an operating loss of $0.9 million compared with an operating profit of $3.3 million in the third quarter of 2020. In addition to the component shortages due to supply chain constraints and material and freight cost inflation, the absence of pandemic-related government support incentives of $1.5 million received in the prior year and the reinstatement of pre-pandemic salaries and benefits also contributed to the lower EMEA results. Revenues in the JAPIC segment during the third quarter of 2021 increased 16.9% over the third quarter of 2020. JAPIC generated an operating loss of $3.5 million in the third quarter of 2021 compared with an operating loss of $3.2 million in the third quarter of 2020. Unlike in the Americas and EMEA, lower gross profit due to material and freight cost inflation and additional manufacturing costs were largely offset by lower operating expenses. Hyster-Yale Group Strategic Perspective The global lift truck market is expected to decline in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the prior year fourth quarter, but still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Markets in 2022 are expected to recede from the historical highs of 2021, but still be higher than pre-pandemic levels. As a result of this market outlook, the Lift Truck business is anticipating a substantial decrease in bookings in the 2021 fourth quarter compared with the third quarter of 2021, and in the succeeding 2022 quarters compared with the respective 2021 quarters. In the first nine months of 2021, the Company has experienced production and shipment levels which are far lower than its objectives due to supply chain logistics constraints. This is anticipated to continue in the 2021 fourth quarter and in at least the first half of 2022. Nonetheless, shipments are expected to increase over the prior year fourth quarter and the third quarter of 2021. Significant material cost inflation and higher freight costs, which continued to worsen in the 2021 third quarter, and the current non-renewal of tariff exclusions are expected to continue to affect the cost of components and freight negatively over the remainder of 2021 compared with the prior year fourth quarter. The Lift Truck business has implemented price increases several times over the course of 2021 to moderate the effect of material cost inflation, but many of the orders in the backlog slotted for production in the remainder of 2021 and the first half of 2022 do not reflect the full effect of all these price increases. As a result, the Company expects to continue to experience low margins in the fourth quarter of 2021 and, at best, in the first half of 2022, due to the lag between when unit price increases went into effect and when they are realized as the units are shipped. The Company will continue to work aggressively to manage supply chain and logistics costs and component availability and tariff exclusions, and will adjust prices accordingly. As a result of these factors, and the increase in costs associated with the reinstatement of pre-pandemic salaries and benefits, significant operating and net losses are expected in the Lift Truck business in the 2021 fourth quarter and in the first half of 2022. From a strategic perspective, Hyster-Yale Group has three core strategies that are expected to have a ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 2nd, 2021

Douglas Dynamics Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results

Highlights: Produced Net Sales of $127.6 million Recorded Diluted GAAP Earnings per Share of $0.30 Attachments segment continued strong year-to-date performance Strong demand continues in Solutions segment driving record backlog; Production impacted by significant supply chain constraints Paid $0.285 per share cash dividend on September 30, 2021 MILWAUKEE, Nov. 01, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE:PLOW), North America's premier manufacturer and upfitter of work truck attachments and equipment, today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021. "On a year-to-date basis, both segments have shown improved performance over last year, with Attachments again producing strong results," explained Bob McCormick, President and CEO. "Our teams are striving to deliver for our customers while facing well-documented macroeconomic challenges, which are hindering our ability to effectively address the robust demand we are seeing across all of our businesses." "McCormick added, "The supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures, and labor market challenges we have previously discussed have all increased in recent months, and are expected to continue into 2022. We continue to implement short-term cost cutting measures including rolling plant shutdowns at certain of our Solutions locations, while positioning ourselves to address the record backlog, ultimately driving significant medium to long-term growth potential for the segment." Consolidated Third Quarter 2021 Results $ in millions (except Margins & EPS) Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Net Sales $127.6 $133.8 Gross Profit Margin 24.0% 27.5%       Income from Operations $10.4 $17.6 Net Income $7.0 $9.2 Diluted EPS $0.30 $0.39       Adjusted EBITDA $15.5 $23.1 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 12.1% 17.2% Adjusted Net Income $7.0 $9.8 Adjusted Diluted EPS $0.29 $0.42 Net Sales were lower compared to the same period last year, driven primarily by global supply chain constraints impacting production and delivery in the Solutions segment. Profitability decreased year-over-year due to supply chain disruption, temporary shutdowns, labor market constraints and the timing of material and freight inflation.   Selling, general and administrative expense increased $1.2 million when compared to the same quarter in the prior year due to wage and benefit inflation, plus the return of more normalized travel and marketing in our Attachments segment. These increases were slightly offset by a decrease in incentive-based compensation based on operating performance in the quarter. Interest expense decreased $2.8 million to $2.2 million when compared to the same quarter in the prior year primarily due to lower interest on the term loan resulting from the June 2021 refinancing. The effective tax rate was 14.6% for the quarter and 8.2% for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, due to discrete tax benefits related to favorable income tax audit results. Work Truck Attachments Segment Third Quarter 2021 Results $ in millions (except Adjusted EBITDA Margin) Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Net Sales $81.4 $76.9 Adjusted EBITDA $14.8 $20.2 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 18.2% 26.2% Net Sales increased by 6% primarily due to preseason price actions which were outpaced by inflation. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 27% compared to the prior year due to repeated increases in input costs during the preseason period. In addition, the manufacturing operations experienced inefficiencies due to the tight labor market. Following price increases taken at the start of pre-season, an additional price increase was implemented at the start of the fourth quarter to address this issue. Despite another season of below average snowfall, 2021 preseason shipments were very strong. We are entering the fourth quarter with a larger than typical backlog of preseason orders that were delayed due to labor challenges experienced particularly in the third quarter. Last year, third quarter shipments were strong due to the shift from the second quarter when operations were partially shut down due to the pandemic.   In 2021, the timing of preseason orders shifted back towards pre-pandemic levels, with a 55/45 ratio between second quarter and third quarter pre-season orders, versus an approximate 50/50 ratio in 2020. McCormick commented, "The resiliency of our Attachments segment is remarkable. Our 2021 year-to-date results are excellent despite the last two years of both pandemic driven headwinds and below average snowfall." In addition, dealer inventories are at their lowest levels for six years, which bodes well as we enter the snow season." Work Truck Solutions Segment Third Quarter 2021 Results $ in millions (except Adjusted EBITDA Margin) Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Net Sales $46.3 $56.9 Adjusted EBITDA $0.7 $2.9 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 1.5% 5.1% Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA both decreased compared to the prior year primarily due to global supply chain constraints, which impacted production and deliveries. Rolling shutdowns continued at several facilities during the quarter to mitigate the impact. Adjusted EBITDA was also negatively impacted by the escalation of inflation experienced during the quarter. Price increases have been implemented in Solutions, but the escalation of the costs exceeded the price realized in the quarter. In light of the shortage of labor across the economy, retaining skilled employees is increasingly important for the long-term health of the business, despite the negative impact on margins. Demand trends remain strong, creating record backlog levels which are more than 140% of the already record level we experienced at the end of 2020. Dividend, Balance Sheet & Liquidity A quarterly cash dividend of $0.285 per share of the Company's common stock was declared on September 7, 2021, and paid on September 30, 2021, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 18, 2021. Net Cash used in Operating Activities for the first nine months of 2021 decreased to ($19.5) million from ($27.1) million cash used during the first nine months of 2020, due to improved operating results, slightly offset by an increase in accounts receivable related to increased sales, and higher inventories due to pulling forward purchases in anticipation of inflationary price increases and supply chain disruptions. Free Cash Flow for the first nine months of 2021 increased to ($26.8) million from ($36.5) million in the corresponding period in 2020, which was primarily a result of lower cash used in operating activities and lower capital expenditures. As of September 30, 2021, Douglas Dynamics maintained $69.4 million of total liquidity, comprised of $7.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and $62.1 million of borrowing availability under its revolving credit facility. Outlook McCormick noted, "Based on the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds impacting the entire economy, we are lowering the top end of our guidance ranges. As we look ahead to 2022, demand remains exceptionally strong, with record backlog in our Solutions segment. Coupled with the ongoing resilience of our Attachments segment, we are focused on addressing the long-term growth opportunities in our businesses." The 2021 financial outlook is as follows: Net Sales are expected to be between $525 million and $565 million. Adjusted EBITDA is predicted to range from $75 million to $90 million. Adjusted Earnings Per Share are expected to be in the range of $1.40 per share to $1.90 per share. The effective tax rate is now expected to be approximately 15% to 17%, recognizing the discrete tax benefits that will lower the effective tax rate for 2021. The outlook assumes relatively stable economic conditions, no significant deterioration in COVID-19 pandemic conditions, and that the Company's core markets will experience close to average snowfall levels in 4Q21. Earnings Conference Call Information A conference call will occur on Tuesday, November 2, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Central Time). To join the conference call, please dial (877) 369-6591 domestically, or (253) 237-1176 internationally. The call will also be available via the Investor Relations section of the website at www.douglasdynamics.com. For those who cannot listen to the live broadcast, replays will be available for one week following the call. About Douglas Dynamics Home to the most trusted brands in the industry, Douglas Dynamics is North America's premier manufacturer and up-fitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment. For more than 70 years, the Company has been innovating products that not only enable people to perform their jobs more efficiently and effectively, but also enable businesses to increase profitability. Through its proprietary Douglas Dynamics Management System (DDMS), the Company is committed to continuous improvement aimed at consistently producing the highest quality products, at industry-leading levels of service and delivery that ultimately drive shareholder value. The Douglas Dynamics portfolio of products and services is separated into two segments: First, the Work Truck Attachments segment, which includes commercial snow and ice control equipment sold under the FISHER®, SNOWEX® and WESTERN® brands. Second, the Work Truck Solutions segment, which includes the up-fit of market leading attachments and storage solutions under the HENDERSON® brand, and the DEJANA® brand and its related sub-brands. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures This press release contains financial information calculated other than in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP").  The non-GAAP measures used in this press release are Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted Earnings (Loss) Per Share, and Free Cash Flow.  The Company believes that these non-GAAP measures are useful to investors and other external users of its consolidated financial statements in evaluating the Company's operating performance as compared to that of other companies.  Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures can be found immediately following the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows included in this press release. Adjusted EBITDA represents net income (loss) before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, as further adjusted for certain charges consisting of unrelated legal and consulting fees, pension termination costs, stock-based compensation, certain purchase accounting expenses, impairment charges, expenses related to debt modifications, loss on extinguishment of debt, and incremental costs incurred related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such COVID-19 related costs include increased expenses directly related to the pandemic, and do not include either production related overhead inefficiencies or lost or deferred sales. We believe these costs are out of the ordinary, unrelated to our business and not representative of our results. The Company uses Adjusted EBITDA in evaluating the Company's operating performance because it provides the Company and its investors with additional tools to compare its operating performance on a consistent basis by removing the impact of certain items that management believes do not directly reflect the Company's core operations. The Company's management also uses Adjusted EBITDA for planning purposes, including the preparation of its annual operating budget and financial projections, and to evaluate the Company's ability to make certain payments, including dividends, in compliance with its senior credit facilities, which is determined based on a calculation of "Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA" that is substantially similar to Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted Earnings (Loss) Per Share (calculated on a diluted basis) represents net income (loss) and earnings (loss) per share (as defined by GAAP), excluding the impact of stock based compensation, pension termination costs, non-cash purchase accounting adjustments, impairment charges, expenses related to debt modifications, loss on extinguishment of debt, certain charges related to unrelated legal fees and consulting fees, incremental costs incurred related to the COVID-19 pandemic, adjustments on derivatives not classified as hedges, net of their income tax impact. Such COVID-19 related costs include increased expenses directly related to the pandemic, and do not include either production related overhead inefficiencies or lost or deferred sales. We believe these costs are out of the ordinary, unrelated to our business and not representative of our results. Adjustments on derivatives not classified as hedges are non-cash and are related to overall financial market conditions; therefore, management believes such costs are unrelated to our business and are not representative of our results.  Management believes that Adjusted Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted Earnings (Loss) Per Share are useful in assessing the Company's financial performance by eliminating expenses and income that are not reflective of the underlying business performance. Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP financial measure that we define as net cash provided by (used in) operating activities less capital expenditures.  Free Cash Flow should be evaluated in addition to, and not considered a substitute for, other financial measures such as Net Income (Loss) and Net Cash Used in Operating Activities.  We believe that free cash flow represents our ability to generate additional cash flow from our business operations. Forward Looking Statements This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements include information relating to future events, future financial performance, strategies, expectations, competitive environment, regulation, product demand, the payment of dividends, and availability of financial resources. These statements are often identified by use of words such as "anticipate," "believe," "intend," "estimate," "expect," "continue," "should," "could," "may," "plan," "project," "predict," "will" and similar expressions and include references to assumptions and relate to our future prospects, developments, and business strategies. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, weather conditions, particularly lack of or reduced levels of snowfall and the timing of such snowfall, our ability to manage general economic, business and geopolitical conditions, including the impacts of natural disasters, pandemics and outbreaks of contagious diseases and other adverse public health developments, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, our inability to maintain good relationships with our distributors, our inability to maintain good relationships with the original equipment manufacturers with whom we currently do significant business, lack of available or favorable financing options for our end-users, distributors or customers, increases in the price of steel or other materials, including as a result of tariffs, necessary for the production of our products that cannot be passed on to our distributors, increases in the price of fuel or freight, a significant decline in economic conditions, the inability of our suppliers and original equipment manufacturer partners to meet our volume or quality requirements, inaccuracies in our estimates of future demand for our products, our inability to protect or continue to build our intellectual property portfolio, the effects of laws and regulations and their interpretations on our business and financial condition, our inability to develop new products or improve upon existing products in response to end-user needs, losses due to lawsuits arising out of personal injuries associated with our products, factors that could impact the future declaration and payment of dividends, our inability to compete effectively against competition, our inability to achieve the projected financial performance with the assets of Dejana Truck & Utility Equipment Company, Inc., which we acquired in 2016, and unexpected costs or liabilities related to such acquisitions or any future acquisitions, as well as those discussed in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 and any subsequent Form 10-Q filings. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. In addition, the forward-looking statements in this release speak only as of the date hereof and we undertake no obligation, except as required by law, to update or release any revisions to any forward-looking statement, even if new information becomes available in the future. For further information contact:Douglas Dynamics, Inc.Nathan Elwell847-530-0249investorrelations@douglasdynamics.com Financial Statements Douglas Dynamics, Inc.   Consolidated Balance Sheets   (In thousands)                     September 30, December 31,      2021  2020     (unaudited) (unaudited)           Assets       Current assets:       Cash and cash equivalents $ 7,340 $ 41,030   Accounts receivable, net   124,135   83,195   Inventories   100,134   79,482   Inventories - truck chassis floor plan   7,916   8,146   Refundable income taxes paid   2,552   -   Prepaid and other current assets   5,552   5,334   Total current assets   247,629   217,187           Property, plant, and equipment, net   64,612   64,320   Goodwill   113,134   113,134   Other intangible assets, net   144,739   152,791   Operating lease - right of use asset   19,080   21,441   Non-qualified benefit plan assets   9,837   9,041   Other long-term assets   1,203   1,288   Total assets $ 600,234 $ 579,202           Liabilities and stockholders' equity       Current liabilities:       Accounts payable $ 16,861 $ 16,284   Accrued expenses and other current liabilities   32,652   30,831   Floor plan obligations   7,916   7,885   Operating lease liability - current   4,623   4,326   Income taxes payable   -   5,214   Short term borrowings   37,000   -   Current portion of long-term debt   11,137   1,666   Total current liabilities   110,189   66,206           Retiree benefits and deferred compensation   17,245   15,804   Deferred income taxes   27,553   26,681   Long-term debt, less current portion   208,747   236,676   Operating lease liability - noncurrent   14,840   17,434   Other long-term liabilities   11,431   16,197           Total stockholders' equity   210,229   200,204   Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 600,234 $ 579,202           Douglas Dynamics, Inc.   Consolidated Statements of Income (Loss)   (In thousands, except share and per share data)                   Three Month Period Ended   Nine Month Period Ended     September 30, 2021 September 30, 2020   September 30, 2021 September 30, 2020     (unaudited)   (unaudited)                               Net sales $ 127,636   $ 133,761     $ 388,508   $ 321,994     Cost of sales   97,001     97,033       282,823     241,501     Gross profit   30,635     36,728       105,685     80,493.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 1st, 2021

Daimler performance resilient in third quarter

STUTTGART, Germany, Oct. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Unit sales at Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans decreased due to semiconductor shortage Group revenue of €40.1 billion (Q3 2020: €40.3 billion) at prior-year level EBIT of €3,579 million (Q3 2020: €3,070 million) Industrial free cash flow of €2,249 million (Q3 2020: €5,139 million) Net industrial liquidity of €23.5 billion (end of Q2 2021: €20.9 billion) Group net profit of €2,573 million (Q3 2020: €2,158 million) Outlook for fiscal year 2021 (Daimler Trucks & Buses included for 12 months): Group EBIT to be significantly above the prior-year level. Free cash flow of the industrial business is now expected to be at the prior-year level Daimler AG's (ticker symbol: DAI) business performance demonstrated resilience in the third quarter ending September 30, 2021. Despite considerably lower production and sales due to the semiconductor shortage, revenue remained at the prior-year level. Group EBIT increased thanks to improved product mix, revenue quality and a tight grip on fixed costs. Demand for all products remains strong in all markets as the world's pre-eminent luxury brand continues its global rollout of electric-only vehicles. Total unit sales decreased by 25% to 577,800 passenger cars and commercial vehicles (Q3 2020: 772,700) mainly due to the global supply constraints. Group revenue remained at €40.1 billion (Q3 2020: €40.3 billion). The share from discontinued operations was €8.4 billion (Q3 2020: €8.7 billion). Group EBIT was €3,579 million (Q3 2020: €3,070 million). The share from discontinued operations was €680 million (Q3 2020: €559 million). Adjusted EBIT, reflecting the underlying business, was €3,611 million (Q3 2020: €3,479 million). Group net profit was €2,573 million (Q3 2020: €2,158 million). The share from discontinued operations was €549 million (Q3 2020: €347 million). "We remain on track to meet our full-year targets thanks to a more robust business – resulting in an EBIT increase despite a challenging environment," stated Harald Wilhelm, Chief Financial Officer of Daimler AG. "At the same time, we made substantial progress with our strategic agenda: continuing the rollout of highly desirable electric vehicles, laying the groundwork for scaled up battery cell production with our intended stake in ACC, and through gaining shareholder approval for creating two pure-play companies." On July 30, 2021, the Board of Management of Daimler AG, with the approval of the Supervisory Board, resolved to spin off the former Daimler Trucks & Buses division, including the associated financial services business (Daimler Commercial Vehicles business). At the Extraordinary General Meeting on October 1, 2021, the shareholders of Daimler AG approved the spin-off with 99.9% of the represented share capital. As a result, the criteria for classification as discontinued operations and as assets and liabilities held for distribution or sale, have been met. Group figures within financial statements have been split into continued and discontinued operations. Continued operations are presented in the consolidated income statement; the result of the discontinued operations after taxes is shown in a separate line. The previous year's figures have been adjusted accordingly. Investments, free cash flow and liquidity A tight grip on fixed costs, working capital and investment translated into a comfortable level of free cash flow. The free cash flow of the industrial business was €2,249 million (Q3 2020: €5,139 million), including important upfront investments in future products. The adjusted free cash flow of the industrial business was €2,833 million (Q3 2020: €5,345 million). The net liquidity of the industrial business amounted to €23.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, compared with €20.9 billion at the end of the second quarter 2021 and €17.9 billion at year-end 2020. The Group's investments in property, plant and equipment in the third quarter totaled €1,106 million (Q3 2020: €1,193 million). Research & development expenditure amounted to €2,212 million (Q3 2020: €2,126 million). Divisional results Sales at the Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans division decreased by 30% to 471,400 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3 2020: 673,400). High-end vehicles including Mercedes-Maybach, Mercedes-AMG, the S-Class and G-Class as well as the GLE and GLS showed strong growth, with favorable mix and net pricing helping to partially offset semiconductor-driven supply constraints and raw material headwinds. Revenue was €25.6 billion (Q3 2020: €25.8 billion). EBIT amounted to €2,004 million (Q3 2020: €2,118 million) and the return on sales was 7.8% (Q3 2020: 8.2%). Adjusted EBIT reached €2,175 million (Q3 2020: €2,417 million) with the adjusted return on sales at 8.5% (Q3 2020: 9.4%). Cash flow before interest and taxes (CFBIT) was €3,652 million (Q3 2020: €4,617 million). Adjusted CFBIT amounted to €4,127 million (Q3 2020: €4,821 million). The adjusted cash conversion rate (CCR) was 1.9 (Q3 2020: 2.0). Sales at Mercedes-Benz Cars declined by 32% to 383,500 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3 2020: 566,600). The presentation of four new electric concepts and vehicles at the Munich IAA underlined the brand's unrelenting focus on luxury and tech in the area of passenger cars. Mercedes-Benz Vans' sales decreased by 18% to 88,000 vehicles (Q3 2020: 106,900). In the Vans segment, Mercedes-Benz introduced its new Citan and eCitan, launched a new battery variant for its eVito Tourer and started sales of its Sprinter 4x4. For Daimler Trucks & Buses the third quarter was also a challenging one. The division's operations and financial performance were impacted by supply chain constraints, mainly shortages of semiconductors, affecting especially the heavy duty segment. The division showed an increase in unit sales of 7% to 106,400 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3 2020: 99,300). Revenue was €8.9 billion (Q3 2020: €9.2 billion). EBIT amounted to €482 million (Q3 2020: €541 million) and the return on sales was 5.4% (Q3 2020: 5.9%). Adjusted EBIT was €489 million (Q3 2020: €603 million) and adjusted return on sales was 5.5% (Q3 2020: 6.5%). Cash flow before interest and taxes (CFBIT) showed an outflow of €576 million (Q3 2020: inflow of €1,142 million). Adjusted CFBIT amounted to an outflow of €527 million (Q3 2020: inflow of €1,142 million). The adjusted cash conversion rate (CCR) was minus 1.1 (Q3 2020: 1.9). Unit sales at Daimler Trucks increased by 8% to 101,700 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3 2020: 94,100). Headwinds from raw materials were partially offset through increased net pricing. The North America order book for 2022 showed record incoming orders. Daimler Buses sold 4,700 vehicles, a decrease of 8% (Q3 2020: 5,100). At Daimler Mobility, new business decreased by 22% to €14.6 billion in the third quarter (Q3 2020: €18.7 billion) due to the semiconductor related lower sales level. Contract volume was €148.1 billion at the end of the quarter (end of the second quarter 2021: €150.6 billion / end of 2020: €150.6 billion). Revenue was €6.9 billion (Q3 2020: €6.9 billion). The division's EBIT amounted to €943 million (Q3 2020: €589 million). At 23.3%, return on equity was much higher than the 16.2% in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBIT was €943 million (Q3 2020: €601 million) and adjusted return on equity was 23.3% (Q3 2020: 16.5%). The financial performance of the division strongly benefitted from lower refinancing costs and the strong credit quality of the portfolio. Daimler Mobility is expanding its offering of support for EV sales but these remain at a level equivalent to ICE vehicles. Outlook for Daimler and the divisions The economic conditions for worldwide demand for cars are likely to remain favorable during the rest of the year. It remains difficult to deliver an accurate forecast on how the supply situation will continue to develop. Daimler assumes that strained supply chains and bottlenecks for key components will continue to have a considerable impact on worldwide vehicle production also in the fourth quarter of the year. Daimler assumes in the fourth quarter an improved semiconductor supply situation compared with Q3, despite limited visibility and high volatility. The overriding structural shortage of semiconductors is expected to remain an issue in 2022 but should improve compared to 2021. Based on the divisions' current assessments, Daimler now expects Group revenues and Group EBIT in full-year to be significantly above the level of the previous year. Daimler assumes that the worldwide semiconductor shortage will affect Mercedes-Benz Cars and Mercedes-Benz Vans unit sales in the fourth quarter. Mercedes-Benz Cars now anticipates slightly lower unit sales in the full-year 2021 than in the previous year. Mercedes-Benz Vans now expects its unit sales in 2021 to be at the prior-year level. Following the drop in demand in 2020, major truck markets are expected to recover in 2021, which should also benefit the sales of Daimler Trucks & Buses. The division continues to anticipate a significant increase in unit sales, mainly reflecting the expectations for the markets in North America, Indonesia and the EU region. Based on the performance in the first nine month of the year and the above mentioned assumptions, the divisions expect the following adjusted returns in the year 2021: Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans: adjusted return on sales of 10 - 12% (unchanged) Daimler Trucks & Buses: adjusted return on sales of 6 - 8% (unchanged, excluding effects from the spin-off) Daimler Mobility: adjusted return on equity of 20 - 22% (previously: 17 - 19%) The calculation of the adjusted return on equity of the Daimler Mobility division does not include any impact on division EBIT from the deconsolidation ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaOct 29th, 2021

How Long Until Supply Chains Finally Normalize: Three Things To Watch

How Long Until Supply Chains Finally Normalize: Three Things To Watch Earlier today, Morgan Stanley showed that more than inflation, more than concerns about the historic labor crisis, definitely more than covid, one thing has preoccupied the minds of most management teams this quarter: "supply chain issues", a topic which has seen an explosion of mentions on Q3 earnings calls. But while by now everyone is aware that the global supply-chain shock is truly historic and getting worse by the day, with used car prices rising sharply again and over 30 million tons of cargo waiting outside US ports ahead of the holiday season, few have considered what realistically could normalize these frayed supply chains. To address this topic, in a research report published overnight, Goldman's economists assessed the three key drivers of supply chain normalization and their most likely timing: improved chip supply driven by post-Delta factory restarts (4Q21) and eventually by expanded production capacity (2H22 and 2023); improved US labor supply (4Q21 and 1H22); and the wind-down of US port congestion (2H22). And speaking of used car prices, in the first 15 days of October, the Manheim used vehicle index surged 8.3% due to yet another global supply shock: this time due to Delta-variant factory shutdowns in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. Here, in a rare mea culpa, the Goldman economists admit that while previously they had expected improved microchip availability by 1H22 on the back of normalizing Japanese automotive shipments (post-factory fire) and a US supply response, with these catalysts now behind us — the Naka factory in Japan resumed normal shipments activity in July and US semiconductor plant hours jumped to 73 hours per week in the first half of the year vs. 46 in 2019 — Goldman now expects a "more extended timeline." So with that demonstration of how thoroughly unpredictable the non-linear cascading consequences of such s diffuse, global phenomenon as international production pathways and supply chains are, Goldman proceeds to assess the three key drivers of supply chain normalization listed above, their likely timing, and the key indicators to track progress. We start by reviewing one unique aspect of the global semiconductor industry that sets it apart from most other manufacturing and services industries of today’s economy: outside of Southeast Asian plant shutdowns, both output and capacity utilization have already returned to quite elevated levels. So while the supply of dress shirts and haircuts is likely to rise sharply if demand returns, higher utilization of existing semiconductor capacity is not a viable path toward resolving the chip shortage. Additionally, much needed moderation in US and global goods demand has alleviated (and will continue to alleviate) goods-sector imbalances. As shown in the left panel of the next chart, real retail spending has already normalized in major foreign economies. And while it picked back up domestically in August and September, US goods consumption has nonetheless declined by 5% since March. That said, from the perspective of the key bottlenecks contributing to inflation, demand for consumer electronics, business tech, and other semiconductor-intensive products has remained elevated—both globally and in the US (right chart above). Furthermore, one should hardly expect the increased digitization of society and consumer preferences to reverse post-pandemic: Goldman's equity analysts forecast demand for semiconductor-intensive consumer goods to remain strong in 2022 (smartphones +4% after +12% in 2021, autos +5% after +6%, PCs -12% after +28% cumulatively in 2020 and 2021). So returning to supply constraints, here is a summary of the three key resolution channels in turn (global chip production, US labor supply, reduced port congestion). Channel 1, Step 1: Improved Chip Supply from East Asia Reboot Goldman's expected timeline: 4Q21 Key indicators to watch: Effective Lockdown Indices (ELI) particularly in Malaysia, Vietnam, Mainland China, and Taiwan East Asian industrial production and exports of semiconductors, electrical components, and consumer electronics Automaker commentary on near-term chip availability China industrial policy, with respect to power cuts and the Delta variant Early- and mid-month trade reports (Japan, Taiwan, and Korea) As shown in the next chart, three supply shocks weighed heavily on auto production this year, starting in February with severe winter storms and power outages in the southern United States and followed by a March fire at the Renesas automotive chip factory in Naka, Japan. While the plant was fully rebuilt in Q2 and auto production was set to return to near-normal levels in Q3, the arrival of the Delta variant and “zero covid” policies in some East Asian economies combined to produce another sharp drop in US semiconductor supply. The red line in the same exhibit shows the mid-year stepdown in automotive semiconductor units imported from key East Asian suppliers (data derived from granular Census trade records that include unit counts). Looking ahead, there are several key drivers for optimism, starting with the vaccination-led drop in infection rates (chart below, left and center). As a result, lockdown severity is also now approaching pre-Delta levels in both Malaysia and Vietnam (right panel). Going forward, it's important to track the semiconductor output and trade statistics of these key suppliers, as well as closely watch Chinese output and export data to monitor possible disruptions to chip or consumer goods supplies, for example related to power cuts or covid restrictions. For example, imports of integrated circuits from Vietnam and semiconductor devices and diodes from Malaysia declined 34% year-on-year in August, but Chinese production has so far remained firm. These developments coupled with better near-term production commentary from General Motors and Toyota, would argue for some microchip relief in Q4, and Goldman estimates the removal of this supply bottleneck could return US auto production to or near the 10-11mn SAAR range achieved in late 2020 (vs. 7.8mn in September and 8.6mn in Q3). Increases beyond that pace would likely require additional supply improvements, in part because today’s smart cars utilize more and more automotive systems with microchips and in part because of the continued mix shift towards SUVs and electric vehicles (EVs), both of which are relatively chip-intensive. The next chart plots the ratio of global automotive semiconductor shipments to global vehicle production (both on a unit basis.) The secular increase in chip intensity continued in 2021 and suggests demand for automotive semiconductors will continue to rise even with flattish unit vehicle demand. Channel 1, Step 2: Improved Chip Supply from New Capacity Goldman's expected timeline: 2H22, with a more normal environment in 2023 Key indicators to watch: Global semiconductor shipments, particularly automotive: Microcontroller Units (MCUs), power semiconductor, analog devices GS equity research forecasts for semiconductor capacity growth 2022 auto production forecasts (GS equity research, IHS) US industrial production of computers, communication equipment, and semiconductors Foreign production and US imports of auto and consumer electronics A key step towards easing supply constraints and lowering core goods prices is the build out of global microchip production capacity. But despite the dramatic impact of the chip shortages on US economic output and consumer prices, automotive semiconductor capex only rose back above the 2019 pace in Q3 And with 2-3 quarter lags between equipment capex and chip production—and several-year lead times for new foundries—the rise in capex to above-normal levels in Q4 may not meaningfully boost chip supply until the second half of next year. Reasons for the slow and restrained capex response include the long lead times and high fixed costs of new foundries and the likelihood that downstream industries will shift production away from the semis currently in short supply—many of which are older generation products to begin with. High industry concentration is another factor contributing to restrained capital deployment in the face of very strong near-term demand. With Goldman analysts tracking capacity growth of just 5-10% per year in 2021-22 among the semiconductor industries that supply the auto and consumer electronics sectors, and with consumer demand for these products also likely growing at that horizon and given the rising semiconductor content of motor vehicles, Goldman expects chip supply to remain constrained through at least mid-2022. This reduces the scope for automakers to sustain above-normal production, and restock heavily depleted vehicle inventories. Accordingly, Goldman also expects auto dealer inventories to remain very low through mid-2022. Channel 2: Improved US Labor Supply Goldman's expected timeline: Q421 and 1H22 Key indicators to watch: Payrolls, particularly manufacturing and transportation JOLTS, particularly manufacturing and transportation Industrial production of consumer goods, excluding autos and high tech Supplier deliveries components of ISMs and regional Fed surveys Labor force participation rate Labor shortages are another important bottleneck, but labor supply constraints are expected to ease substantially in coming months for several reasons. First, the September expiration of unemployment insurance benefits will boost Q4 job growth by around 1.0 million according to Goldman economists. Second, workers who have left their jobs because of child care concerns to return to work now that schools have reopened. Third, virus concerns will continue to fade as vaccinations increase further and infection rates fall—this would encourage some of the 2-3 million individuals staying away from the workplace because of health concerns to return to the job market. Taken together, Goldman expects total employment to increase by about 4mn workers by end-2022, a 2.7% boost to non-farm payroll employment. As shown in Exhibit 11, labor demand in these industries is 5.1% and 0.9% above pre-pandemic levels in transportation and manufacturing, respectively. With job openings and wages at new highs for factory and transportation jobs, these labor shortages should ease gradually as the sectors draw workers from lower-paid services industries Channel 3: Unwind of Port Congestion Expected timeline: 1H22 Key indicators to watch: Transportation payrolls, particularly in the marine cargo handling, support activities for transportation, couriers and messengers, and warehousing and storage sectors Ships at anchor and inbound container traffic at US ports Shipments component of the Cass Freight Index US ex-auto manufacturing production US imports of cars and consumer goods Real retail inventories, excluding autos Shipping delays and port congestion are also important bottlenecks for seaborne consumer products like furniture and sporting goods—semiconductors and high-value electronics generally arrive via airfreight. Stranded cargo at the Port of Los Angeles has surged to record highs (left panel of Exhibit 12) due to elevated trade volume—container inflows into US ports are 25% above pre-pandemic levels (see right panel)—and ongoing shortages of transportation-sector labor. We don’t expect significant near-term capacity growth in the goods shipping sector because bottlenecks currently constrain multiple modes of transportation. For example, if ports increased their capacity but the truck-driver shortage is not resolved, total shipping times could remain little changed. Moreover, to the extent transportation companies view shipping demand as temporarily elevated, they are unlikely to boost capacity meaningfully in the near-term. We instead see two other drivers behind an expected easing in shipping and transportation constraints in the first half of 2022. First, demand is seasonally weaker in the fall and winter, bottoming out in February after the Chinese New Year when it is typically about 15-20% below August levels. If port throughput maintains the August not-seasonally-adjusted pace, the seasonal moderation in demand would help clear the backlog. Second, and as discussed in more detail here and in Exhibit 3, we expect US import volumes to normalize somewhat due to waning fiscal stimulus and a consumer rotation back toward services consumption. Inflation and Fed Implications As an aside, since any delays in supply chain normalization means higher prices, Goldman has once again boosted its sequential inflation assumptions for Q4 and early 2022 to reflect these continued upward price pressures, having done so already every month since April. The bank now forecasts year-on-year core PCE inflation of 4.3% at year-end, 3.0% in June 2022, and 2.15% in December 2022 (vs. 4.25%, 2.7% and 2.0% previously). This slower resolution of supply constraints means that year-on-year inflation will be higher in the immediate aftermath of tapering than we had previously expected. While we expect inflation to be on a sharp downward trajectory at that point and to continue falling through the end of the year, this higher-for-longer path increases the risk of an earlier hike in 2022. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/27/2021 - 15:27.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 27th, 2021

Hubbell Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results

Shelton, CT, Oct. 26, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HUBBELL REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS PER DILUTED SHARE OF $1.98 AND ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER DILUTED SHARE OF $2.24 Q3 net sales +9% (organic +5%) Q3 diluted EPS of $1.98; adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24 Update FY21 reported diluted EPS to $6.85-$7.05 Update FY21 adjusted diluted EPS to $8.30-$8.50 SHELTON, CT. (October 26, 2021) – Hubbell Incorporated (NYSE:HUBB) today reported operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021. "Hubbell successfully navigated through a dynamic operating environment in the third quarter," said Gerben Bakker, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. "While material inflation, supply chain disruptions, and increased freight and logistics costs caused operational headwinds in the quarter, the Company actively mitigated through price increases and other productivity initiatives. Price realization of +7% in the third quarter represented a significant acceleration from first half levels, and prior restructuring and organizational efficiency initiatives continue to deliver ongoing cost savings." Mr. Bakker continued, "Customer demand for reliable and efficient critical infrastructure solutions remained strong across our Utility and Electrical businesses, driving another quarter of significant orders growth. While unit volumes were down slightly year-over-year in the quarter due to supply chain constraints, above average backlog visibility gives us confidence in a strong finish to the full year." "In Utility Solutions, demand strength was broad-based across power, gas and water utility customers for T&D components, as well as communications & controls. Although supply chain disruptions limited third quarter shipments, secular trends including grid modernization, hardening of aging infrastructure, and the renewable energy transition are expected to continue driving attractive growth over the long term. In Electrical Solutions, sales and orders growth was led by strong demand for connectors, grounding and wiring products across light industrial verticals, including communications, solar, and industrial manufacturing markets. This strength was partially offset by softness in commercial and residential lighting markets." Mr. Bakker concluded, "We are pleased with the results of the third quarter, as our employees across the enterprise executed with urgency and efficiency to operate with discipline while serving our customers with best-in-class quality and reliability. Looking ahead, we are confident in our ability to deliver for our customers and shareholders as we work to fulfill strong demand while continuing to implement price and productivity initiatives." Certain terms used in this release, including "Net debt", "Free Cash Flow", "Organic net sales", "Organic growth", "Restructuring-related costs", "EBITDA", and certain "adjusted" measures, are defined under the section entitled "Non-GAAP Definitions." See page 8 for more information. THIRD QUARTER FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS The comments and year-over-year comparisons in this segment review are based on third quarter results in 2021 and 2020. Electrical Solutions segment net sales in the third quarter of 2021 increased 11% to $612 million compared to $551 million reported in the third quarter of 2020. Organic sales increased 9% in the quarter while acquisitions contributed 1% and foreign exchange contributed 1%. Operating income was $72.0 million, or 11.8% of net sales, compared to $65.9 million, or 12.0% of net sales in the same period of 2020. Adjusted operating income was $76.1 million, or 12.4% of net sales, in the third quarter of 2021 as compared to $70.1 million, or 12.7% of net sales in the same period of the prior year. Changes in adjusted operating profit and operating margin were driven primarily by strong price realization, modest volume growth, and restructuring benefits, offset by material inflation and higher logistics and supply chain costs. Utility Solutions segment net sales in the third quarter of 2021 increased 8% to $602 million compared to $558 million reported in the third quarter of 2020. Organic sales increased 2% in the quarter, with acquisitions, net of dispositions, contributing approximately 6% growth. Total Utility T&D Components sales increased approximately 10% and Utility Communications and Controls sales increased by approximately 4%. Operating income was $83 million, or 13.8% of net sales, in the third quarter of 2021 as compared to $97 million, or 17.4% of net sales in the same period of 2020. Adjusted operating income was $98 million, or 16.3% of net sales, in the third quarter of 2021 as compared to $111 million, or 20.0% of net sales in the same period of the prior year. Decreases in adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating margin were primarily due to lower volumes, material inflation, and higher logistics and supply chain costs, partially offset by strong price realization and restructuring benefits. Adjusted third quarter 2021 results exclude $0.26 of amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets. Adjusted third quarter 2020 results exclude $0.25 of amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets as well as $0.09 due to a pension settlement charge. Net cash provided by operating activities was $98 million in the third quarter of 2021 versus $151.9 million in the comparable period of 2020. Free cash flow was $70 million in the third quarter of 2021 versus $135.2 million reported in the comparable period of 2020 as the Company built working capital to secure materials and components to serve strong customer demand. SUMMARY & OUTLOOK For the full year 2021, Hubbell anticipates sales growth of 12-13%. This expectation is comprised of 8-9% organic growth, including 5% price realization, bolstered by approximately 3-4% growth from acquisitions and a modest tailwind from foreign exchange. Hubbell anticipates 2021 earnings per diluted share in the range of $6.85-$7.05 and anticipates adjusted diluted earnings per share ("Adjusted EPS") in the range of $8.30-$8.50. Adjusted EPS excludes amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, which the Company expects to be approximately $1.15 for the full year. Adjusted EPS also excludes a loss on the early extinguishment of debt from the 2022 Notes that were redeemed by the Company on April 2, 2021, as well as a loss recognized on the disposal of a business during the second quarter of 2021. The Company believes Adjusted EPS is a useful measure of underlying performance in light of our acquisition strategy and core operations. The earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share ranges are based on an adjusted tax rate of approximately 21% and include approximately $0.20-$0.25 per share of anticipated restructuring and related investment. The ranges also incorporate the impact of acquisitions, which we anticipate adding approximately $0.20 to full year adjusted earnings. The Company expects full year 2021 free cash flow conversion at approximately 100% of adjusted net income. CONFERENCE CALL Hubbell will conduct an earnings conference call to discuss its third quarter 2021 financial results today, October 26, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET. A live audio of the conference call will be available and can be accessed by visiting Hubbell's "Investor Relations - Events/Presentations" section of www.hubbell.com. Audio replays of the recorded conference call will be available after the call and can be accessed two hours after the conclusion of the original conference call by calling (855) 859-2056 and using passcode 6696827. The replay will remain available until November 25, 2021 at 11:59 p.m. ET. Audio replays will also be available at the conclusion of the call by visiting www.hubbell.com and selecting "Investors" from the options at the bottom of the page and then "Events/Presentations" from the drop-down menu. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements about expectations regarding our financial results, condition and outlook, anticipated end markets, near-term volume, continued opportunity for operational improvement, our ability to drive consistent and differentiated performance, the impact of our high quality portfolio of electrical solutions and utility solutions with strong brand value and best in class reliability, and our projected financial results set forth in "Summary & Outlook" above, as well as other statements that are not strictly historic in nature. In addition, all statements regarding anticipated growth, changes in operating results, market conditions and economic conditions are forward-looking, including those regarding the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company's end markets, supply chain disruptions and material costs. These statements may be identified by the use of forward-looking words or phrases such as "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "plan", "estimated", "target", "should", "could", "may", "subject to", "continues", "growing", "projected", "if", "potential", "will likely be", and similar words and phrases. Such forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and involve numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual and future performance or the Company's achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: The scope and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global economic systems, our employees, sites, operations, customers, material costs and supply chain; the outcome of contingencies or costs compared to amounts provided for such contingencies, including those with respect to pension withdrawal liabilities; achieving sales levels to meet revenue expectations; unexpected costs or charges, certain of which may be outside the Company's control; the effects of tariffs and other trade actions taken by the U.S. and other countries; changes in demand for our products, as well as product sales prices and material costs; expected benefits of productivity improvements and cost reduction actions; effects of unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates; the impact of U.S. tax reform legislation; general economic and business conditions; the impact of and the ability to complete and integrate strategic acquisitions; the impact of certain divestitures; the ability to effectively develop and introduce new products, expand into new markets and deploy capital; and other factors described in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including the "Business", "Risk Factors", and "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" Sections in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. About the Company Hubbell Incorporated is a leading manufacturer of utility and electrical solutions enabling customers to operate critical infrastructure reliably and efficiently. With 2020 revenues of $4.2 billion, Hubbell solutions empower and energize communities in front of and behind the meter. The corporate headquarters is located in Shelton, CT. Contact:                    Dan Innamorato Hubbell Incorporated 40 Waterview Drive P.O. Box 1000 Shelton, CT 06484 (475) 882-4000         ####### NON-GAAP DEFINITIONS References to "adjusted" operating measures exclude the impact of certain costs, gains or losses. Management believes these adjusted operating measures provide useful information regarding our underlying performance from period to period and an understanding of our results of operations without regard to items we do not consider a component of our core operating performance. Adjusted operating measures are non-GAAP measures, and include adjusted operating income, adjusted operating margin, adjusted net income, adjusted net income available to common shareholders, adjusted net income attributable to Hubbell, adjusted earnings per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA. These non-GAAP measures exclude, where applicable: Amortization of all intangible assets associated with our business acquisitions, including inventory step-up amortization associated with those acquisitions. The intangible assets associated with our business acquisitions arise from the allocation of the purchase price using the acquisition method of accounting in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 805, "Business Combinations." These assets consist primarily of customer relationships, developed technology, trademarks and tradenames, and patents, as reported in Note 6—Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets, under the heading "Total Definite-Lived Intangibles," within the Company's audited consolidated financial statements set forth in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2020. The Company excludes these non-cash expenses because we believe it (i) enhances management's and investors' ability to analyze underlying business performance, (ii) facilitates comparisons of our financial results over multiple periods, and (iii) provides more relevant comparisons of our results with the results of other companies as the amortization expense associated with these assets may fluctuate significantly from period to period based on the timing, size, nature, and number of acquisitions. Although we exclude amortization of these acquired intangible assets and inventory step-up from our non-GAAP results, we believe that it is important for investors to understand that revenue generated, in part, from such intangibles is included within revenue in determining adjusted net income attributable to Hubbell Incorporated. Losses recognized in the second quarter of 2021 from the early extinguishment of long-term debt and the disposition of a business. The Company excludes these losses because we believe it enhances management's and investors' ability to analyze underlying business performance and facilitates comparisons of our financial results over multiple periods. Pension charges including a settlement charge in the third quarter of 2020. Income tax effects of the above adjustments which are calculated using the statutory tax rate, taking into consideration the nature of the item and the relevant taxing jurisdiction, unless otherwise noted. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that excludes the items noted above and also excludes the Other income (expense), net, Interest expense, net, and Provision for income taxes captions of the Condensed Consolidated Statement of Income, as well as depreciation and amortization expense. Net debt (defined as total debt less cash and investments) to total capital is a non-GAAP measure that we believe is a useful measure for evaluating the Company's financial leverage and the ability to meet its funding needs. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure that we believe provides useful information regarding the Company's ability to generate cash without reliance on external financing. In addition, management uses free cash flow to evaluate the resources available for investments in the business, strategic acquisitions and further strengthening the balance sheet. In connection with our restructuring and related actions we have incurred restructuring costs as defined by U.S. GAAP, which are primarily severance and employee benefits, asset impairments, accelerated depreciation, as well as facility closure, contract termination and certain pension costs that are directly related to restructuring actions. We also incur restructuring-related costs, which are costs associated with our business transformation initiatives, including the consolidation of back-office functions and streamlining our processes, and certain other costs and gains associated with restructuring actions. We refer to these costs on a combined basis as "restructuring and related costs", which is a non-GAAP measure. Organic net sales, a non-GAAP measure, represent net sales according to U.S. GAAP, less net sales from acquisitions and divestitures during the first twelve months of ownership or divestiture, respectively, less the effect of fluctuations in net sales from foreign currency exchange. The period-over-period effect of fluctuations in net sales from foreign currency exchange is calculated as the difference between local currency net sales of the prior period translated at the current period exchange rate as compared to the same local currency net sales translated at the prior period exchange rate. We believe this measure provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of underlying operating results and trends of established, ongoing operations by excluding the effect of acquisitions, dispositions and foreign currency, as these activities can obscure underlying trends. When comparing net sales growth between periods excluding the effects of acquisitions, business dispositions and currency exchange rates, those effects are different when comparing results for different periods. For example, because net sales from acquisitions are considered inorganic from the date we complete an acquisition through the end of the first year following the acquisition, net sales from such acquisition are reflected as organic net sales thereafter. There are limitations to the use of non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP measures do not present complete financial results. We compensate for this limitation by providing a reconciliation between our non-GAAP financial measures and the respective most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Because non-GAAP financial measures are not standardized, it may not be possible to compare these financial measures with other companies' non-GAAP financial measures having the same or similar names. These financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or alternative measures of, reported GAAP financial results, and should be viewed in conjunction with the most comparable GAAP financial measures and the provided reconciliations thereto. We believe, however, that these non-GAAP financial measures, when viewed together with our GAAP results and related reconciliations, provide a more complete understanding of our business. We strongly encourage investors to review our consolidated financial statements and publicly filed reports in their entirety and not rely on any single financial measure. Reconciliations of each of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in the tables below. RECAST SEGMENT INFORMATION As previously disclosed, beginning in the first quarter of 2021, the Company is reporting the results of its Gas Connectors and Accessories business as part of the Utility Solutions segment. This realignment has no impact on the Company's historical consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows. The historical segment information has been recast to conform to the new reporting structure. The recast financial information does not represent a restatement of previously issued financial statements. HUBBELL INCORPORATEDCondensed Consolidated Statement of Income(unaudited)(in millions, except per share amounts)   Three Months Ended September 30,   Nine Months Ended September 30,   2021   2020   2021   2020 Net sales $ 1,213.6        $ 1,108.6        $ 3,483.8        $ 3,148.1      Cost of goods sold 883.3        779.0        2,532.9        2,224.5      Gross profit 330.3        329.6        950.9        923.6      Selling & administrative expenses 175.0        166.7        525.3        510.4      Operating income 155.3        162.9        425.6        413.2      Operating income as a % of Net sales 12.8    %   14.7    %   12.2    %   13.1    % Interest expense, net (13.5 )     (15.0 )     (41.4 )     (45.8 )   Loss on disposition of business (0.1 )     —        (6.9 )     —      Loss on extinguishment of debt —        —        (16.8 )     —      Pension charge —        (6.6 )     —        (6.6 )   Other income (expense), net (1.2 )     (2.3 )     (3.1 )     (8.9 )   Total other expense, net (14.8 )     (23.9 )     (68.2 )     (61.3 )   Income before income taxes 140.5        139.0        357.4        351.9      Provision for income taxes 29.9        30.4        71.1        78.5      Net income 110.6        108.6        286.3        273.4      Less: Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest 2.1        1.5        4.3        3.1      Net income attributable to Hubbell Incorporated $ 108.5        $ 107.1        $ 282.0        $ 270.3      Earnings Per Share:               Basic $ 1.99        $ 1.97        $ 5.18        $ 4.97      Diluted $ 1.98        $ 1.96        $ 5.14        $ 4.95      Cash dividends per common share $ 0.98        $ 0.91        $ 2.94        $ 2.73      HUBBELL INCORPORATEDCondensed Consolidated Balance Sheet(unaudited)(in millions)   September 30, 2021   December 31, 2020 ASSETS       Cash and cash equivalents $ 257.9      $ 259.6    Short-term investments 9.9      9.3    Accounts receivable (net of allowances of $11.6 and $12.5) 798.3      634.7    Inventories, net 700.7      607.3    Other current assets 66.4      76.7    TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 1,833.2      1,587.6    Property, plant and equipment, net 521.2      519.2    Investments 72.1      71.1    Goodwill 1,922.6      1,923.3    Other intangible assets, net 738.0      810.6    Other long-term assets 154.6      173.3    TOTAL ASSETS $ 5,241.7      $ 5,085.1    LIABILITIES AND EQUITY       Short-term debt $ 128.9      $ 153.1    Accounts payable 491.9      378.0    Accrued salaries, wages and employee benefits 81.9      91.5    Accrued insurance 77.1      71.6    Other accrued liabilities 255.6      254.0    TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 1,035.4      948.2    Long-term debt 1,434.9      1,436.9    Other non-current liabilities 593.3      614.6    TOTAL LIABILITIES 3,063.6      2,999.7    Hubbell Incorporated Shareholders' Equity 2,168.8      2,070.0    Noncontrolling interest 9.3      15.4    TOTAL EQUITY 2,178.1      2,085.4    TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY $ 5,241.7      $ 5,085.1    HUBBELL INCORPORATEDCondensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows(unaudited)(in millions)   Nine Months Ended September 30,   2021   2020 Cash Flows From Operating Activities       Net income attributable to Hubbell Incorporated $ 282.0        $ 270.3      Depreciation and amortization 122.6        117.0      Stock-based compensation expense 16.5        20.0      Loss on disposition of business 6.9        —      Loss on extinguishment of debt 16.8        —      Pension charge —        6.6      Provision for bad debt expense (0.1 )     8.3      Deferred income taxes 5.9        (4.3 )   Accounts receivable, net (165.0 )     (42.1 )   Inventories, net (97.9 )     45.1      Accounts payable 120.6        45.0      Current liabilities 5.3        (44.8 )   Contributions to defined benefit pension plans (0.1 )     (2.8 )   Other, net (6.7 )     37.3      Net cash provided by operating activities 306.8        455.6      Cash Flows From Investing Activities       Capital expenditures (66.5 )     (51.7 )   Proceeds from disposal of business 8.5        —      Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired 0.1        (2.0 )   Net change in investments (3.4 )     2.2      Other, net 7.8        5.1      Net cash used in investing activities (53.5 )     (46.4 )   Cash Flows From Financing Activities       Long-term debt issuance (repayment), net (1.3 )     (106.3 )   Short-term debt borrowings (repayments), net (24.2 )     (9.0 )   Payment of dividends (159.8 ).....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaOct 26th, 2021

The US is running out of cardboard and packaging materials as the supply chain crisis drags on, making it harder for retailers to ship online orders

Retailers navigating the supply chain crisis will confront another hurdle - an even shorter supply of cardboard boxes that was already growing scarce. A FedEx worker sorts packages being unloaded from a truck on a conveyor belt at the FedEx Oakland Airport sort facility. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Cardboard boxes and packaging materials are in short supply because of the supply chain crisis. Constraints to containerboard and corrugated cardboard have been a growing issue since early this year. In February, the price of cardboard reached a record high, according to the Producer Price Index and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retailers in the throes of navigating the supply chain crisis will soon confront yet another hurdle - an even shorter supply of cardboard boxes that was already growing scarce. Inventory of packaging materials has grown increasingly limited in recent weeks due to supply-chain bottlenecks prompting shortages on everything including household goods, electronics, and food. The strains are a result of a wide array of factors, including increased demand for online shopping, the national labor shortage, congested shipping ports, and increased costs for freight and raw materials. Low containerboard and corrugated cardboard inventory has been a mounting issue since early this year, thanks to meteoric growth in e-commerce during the pandemic.As concern over supply grew, retailers like Amazon began stockpiling cardboard in January to meet demand, leaving smaller businesses empty-handed.By February, the price of cardboard reached a record high, according to the Producer Price Index and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.International Paper, one of the largest providers of containerboard and corrugated cardboard in the US, told investors in July that supply of cardboard boxes was "severely low," and warned of continued supply chain bottlenecks leading into the rest of the year. "As COVID restrictions began to loosen, the economy started to pick up steam," Thomas Ryan, director of corporate communications at International Paper, told Insider in May regarding the growing cardboard shortage. "Then, the winter storms hit, and inputs began to get tight - for us, fiber, recovered fiber, petroleum derivatives such as chemicals for adhesives. Then, add a tight labor market to the mix."Fang Cheng - CEO of Linc, a consumer experience automation company - told Insider that while the holiday season is expected to be a "strong year for e-commerce," lack of cardboard will prove especially challenging for retailers and customer service providers. "Retailers are expecting additional stress when it comes to delivering solid customer service," she wrote in an email to Insider. "Supply chain challenges faced by many retail verticals are adding to the stress. It is widely anticipated that there will be record levels of out of stock and slow fulfillment challenges, such as the potential cardboard shortage, due to these supply chain issues."Cheng wrote that ultimately retailers may need to get creative when it comes to shipping and to prepare their customer service teams accordingly in advance of an expected influx of queries about delays. "Brands often don't have the means to resolve this fundamental issue in time for the holiday season, therefore they must be prepared for an increased amount of customer service inquiries around product inventory check, back order status, fulfillment delays, and increased second-degree inquiries that are caused by out of stock and fulfillment delay situations," she wrote. As for this holiday season, Joe Stefani, co-founder and president of the Desert Cactus, told NBC News that the e-commerce company is experiencing difficulty obtaining the correct sizes 0f boxes, prompting employees to send out precariously packaged shipments for lack of other options. "The packaging is too expensive right now, or we can't get hold of it," Stefani said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 22nd, 2021

Futures Slide On Stagflation Fears As 10Y Yields Spike

Futures Slide On Stagflation Fears As 10Y Yields Spike US index futures dropped after IBM and Tesla fell after their quarterly results, with investors turned cautious awaiting more reports to see the see the adverse impact of supply chain disruption and labor shortages on companies even as jitters remained over elevated inflation and the outlook for China’s property sector. The dollar reversed an overnight drop, while Treasuries fell pushing the 10Y yield to a 5-month high of 1.68%. At 745 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 98 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.31%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 49.25 points, or 0.32%. In the premarket, Tesla fell 1% in premarket trading as it said on Wednesday its upcoming factories and supply-chain headwinds would put pressure on its margins after it beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter revenue. AT&T rose 1% in pre-market trading after exceeding Wall Street’s expectations for profit and wireless subscriber growth. PayPal Holdings also climbed as it explores a $45 billion acquisition of social media company Pinterest Inc., in what could be the biggest technology deal of the year. Dow gained 1.1% after it posted a more than a five-fold jump in third-quarter profit as economic recovery boosted prices for chemicals. IBM plunged 4.7% after it missed market estimates for quarterly revenue as its managed infrastructure business suffered from a decline in orders. Some other notable premarket movers: Digital World Acquisition (DWAC US) surges 30% after the blank-check company agreed to merge with Trump Media & Technology. Former U.S. President Donald Trump says the new company plans to start a social media firm called Truth Social. Denny’s (DENN US) rises 1.4% as the restaurant chain is upgraded to buy from hold at Truist Securities, which sees upside to 3Q estimates, partly due to expanding operating hours. ESS Tech (GWH US) adds 4.6% as Piper Sandler says the stock offers a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to energy storage, initiating coverage at overweight. As Bloomberg notes, corporate results have tempered but not dissipated worries that cost pressures could slow the pandemic recovery. Among S&P 500 companies that have disclosed results, 84% have posted earnings that topped expectations, a hair away from the best showing ever. Yet, the firms that surpassed profit forecasts got almost nothing to show for it in the market. And misses got punisheddearly, by the widest margin since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 2017. European equities faded early losses but remain in small negative territory. Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.4% lower having dropped ~0.8% at the open. IBEX lags peers. Miners led a retreat in Europe’s Stocks 600 index, while industrial commodities including copper and iron ore reversed earlier gains; retail and banks were also among the weakest sectors. Concerns about the inflationary impact of higher prices have risen in recent days, with everyone from Federal Reserve officials to Tesla weighing in on cost pressures. Unilever Plc pushed rising raw material costs onto consumers, increasing prices by the most in almost a decade. Meanwhile, Hermes International said sales surged last quarter, showing resilience compared to rival luxury-goods makers. European autos dropped after Volvo Group warned that the global semiconductor shortage and supply-chain challenges will continue to cap truckmaking. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Soitec shares gain as much as 7.3% in Paris, the stock’s best day since June, after reporting 2Q results and raising its full- year sales forecast. BioMerieux shares rise as much as 5.9%. Sales in 3Q were well ahead of expectations on strong U.S. demand for BioFire respiratory panels, Jefferies (hold) writes in a note. Randstad shares rise as much as 4.7%, the most intraday since Dec. 2020, with RBC (sector perform) saying the staffing firm’s 3Q earnings topped estimates. Sodexo shares rise as much as 4.8% after activist investor Sachem Head took a stake in the French catering co., saying the investment is passive and that Sodexo is going “activist on itself.” Zur Rose shares fall as much as 8.1% after the Swiss online pharmacy cut its growth guidance and posted 3Q sales that Jefferies says missed consensus expectations. Nordic Semi shares drop as much as 7% before recovering some losses, after results; Mirabaud Securities says any weakness in the stock is a “great buying opportunity.” Eurofins shares drop as much as 7.5%, the most in nearly a year, after the laboratory-testing company left its 2021 Ebitda and free cash flow guidance unchanged, which Morgan Stanley says implies a lower Ebitda margin versus previous guidance. Bankinter shares fell as much as 6.6%, most intraday since December. Jefferies highlighted the weaker trend for the Spanish lender’s 3Q net interest income. Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell in late-afternoon trading as investors sold Japanese and Hong Kong-listed tech shares, which helped trigger broader risk aversion among investors. Ailing China Evergrande Group sank on a worsening cash squeeze, while other developers rallied after regulators said their funding needs are being met. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.8%, with Japanese equities slumping by the most in over two weeks as the yen -- typically seen as a safe haven -- strengthened against the dollar, likely boosted by technical factors. Toyota Motor and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the regional benchmark as higher bond yields weighed on sentiment toward the tech sector. The story “shapes up to be worries about higher inflation and the follow-on policy response,” said Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX. Bucking the downtrend were Chinese developers, which shrugged off China Evergrande Group’s scrapping of a divestment plan and climbed after regulators said risks in the real estate market are controllable and reasonable funding needs are being met. China was one of the region’s top-performing equity markets.  Still, Asian stocks continue to feel pressure from higher U.S. bond yields as the 10-year rate surpassed 1.6%. In addition, earlier optimism about earnings is being muted by the outlook for inflation and supply-chain bottlenecks. Chinese growth, global supply constraints and inflation are “acting as a bit of a brake on markets,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy & chief economist at AMP Capital. However, with U.S. equities trading near a record high, investors are “a bit confused,” he said. Japanese equities fell by the most in over two weeks, extending losses in afternoon trading as the yen strengthened against the dollar. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.3%, with all 33 industry groups in the red. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 1.9% loss in the Nikkei 225. S&P 500 futures and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index similarly extended drops. “There has been a general turn in equity market sentiment evident by the afternoon decline in U.S. equity futures and main regional equity indexes,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign-exchange strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “The reversal in risk-sensitive FX pairs like the AUD is reflecting this u-turn.” The Japanese currency gained 0.2% to 114.05 per U.S. dollar, while the Australian dollar weakened. The yen is still down 9.5% against the greenback this year, the worst among major currencies. Yen Faces Year-End Slump as U.S. Yield Premium Spikes With Oil The gain in the yen on Thursday probably followed technical indicators suggesting the currency was oversold and positioning seen as skewed, said Shusuke Yamada, head of Japan foreign exchange and rates strategy at Bank of America in Tokyo. The rally may be short-lived, as rising oil prices are expected to worsen Japan’s terms of trade, and monetary policies between Japan and overseas are likely to diverge further In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier loss to rise as much as 0.2% as the greenback advanced versus all its Group- of-10 peers apart from the yen; risk-sensitive currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, were the worst performers. The pound weakened against the dollar and was little changed versus the euro into the European session. U.K. government borrowing came in significantly lower than official forecasts, but a surge in debt costs sent a warning to the government ahead of the budget next week. The U.K.’s green gilt may price today, subject to market conditions, after being delayed earlier this week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars reversed intraday gains on sales against the yen following losses in regional stock indexes. A kiwi bond auction attracted strong demand. The yen headed for a second session of gains as a selloff in Japanese equities fuels haven bids. Government bonds consolidated. In rates, the Treasury curve flattened modestly as yields on shorter-dated notes inched up, while those on longer ones fell; the bund curve shifted as yields rose about 1bp across the curve. Yields were richer by less than 1bp across long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~1bp each; 10-year yields rose to a 5 month high of 1.68%, outperforming bunds by 2bp and gilts by 4bp on the day. Long end USTs outperform, richening ~2bps versus both bunds and gilts. Peripheral spreads tighten slightly. U.S. breakevens are elevated ahead of $19b 5Y TIPS new issue auction at 1pm ET. In commodities, oil slipped from 7 year highs, falling amid a broad-based retreat in industrial commodities, though trader focus was glued to a surging market structure as inventories decline in the U.S.; Oil’s refining renaissance is under threat from the natural gas crisis; American drivers will continue to face historically high fuel prices. WTI was lower by 0.5% to trade near $83 while Brent declined 0.8% before finding support near $85. Spot gold is range-bound near $1,785/oz. Base metals are mixed. LME nickel and copper are deep in the red while zinc gains 1.5%.  Bitcoin was volatile and dropped sharply after hitting an all time high just above $66,500. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for September, the Conference Board’s leading index for September, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for October. Central bank speakers will include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Visco, while the Central Bank of Turkey will be making its latest monetary policy decision. Otherwise, earnings releases include Intel, Danaher, AT&T and Union Pacific. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,515.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 469.02 MXAP down 0.7% to 199.61 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 659.34 Nikkei down 1.9% to 28,708.58 Topix down 1.3% to 2,000.81 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 26,017.53 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,594.78 Sensex down 1.1% to 60,560.47 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,415.37 Kospi down 0.2% to 3,007.33 Brent Futures down 1.0% to $84.98/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,785.09 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 93.67 German 10Y yield up 0.7 bps to -0.119% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1639 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group scrapped talks to offload a stake in its property-management arm and said real estate sales plunged about 97% during peak home-buying season, worsening its liquidity crisis on the eve of a dollar-bond deadline that could tip the company into default. Its shares plunged as much as 14% on Thursday. China’s goods imports from the U.S. have only reached about 53% of the $200 billion worth of additional products and services it promised to buy under the trade deal signed last year, far behind its purchasing target. Signs that policy makers are accelerating toward an interest-rate hike have traders fumbling around to figure out what that means for sterling. Money managers at Jupiter Asset Management and Aberdeen Asset Management turned neutral in recent days, following similar moves by Amundi SA and William Blair Investment Management. The price on eight out of 10 bonds sold in the first three quarters of this year by European investment-grade borrowers fell after issuance, wiping almost 23.5 billion euros ($27.3 billion) from portfolios. The Turkish lira is looking vulnerable as speculation grows that policy makers will cut interest rates again despite the deteriorating inflation outlook. Option traders see a more than 60% chance that the currency will weaken to an all-time-low of 9.50 per U.S. dollar over the next month, according to Bloomberg pricing. That’s the next key psychological threshold for a market trading largely in uncharted territory ahead of Thursday’s decision. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac indices traded somewhat mixed after the similar performance stateside where the broader market extended on gains in which the DJIA touched a fresh record high and the S&P 500 also briefly approached within 5 points of its all-time peak as attention remained on earnings, although the Nasdaq lagged with tech and duration-sensitive stocks pressured by higher longer-term yields. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was positive as Victoria state approaches the end of the lockdown at midnight and with the index led by outperformance in mining stocks and real estate. However, gains were capped amid weakness in energy as shares in Woodside Petroleum and Santos were pressured following their quarterly production results in which both posted a decline in output from a year ago, albeit with a jump in revenue due to the rampant energy prices, while Woodside also flagged a 27% drop in Wheatstone gas reserves. Nikkei 225 (-1.9%) felt the pressure from the pullback in USD/JPY and with focus shifting to upcoming elections whereby election consulting firm J.A.G Japan sees the LDP losing 40 seats but win enough to maintain a majority with a projected 236 seats at the 465-strong Lower House. Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were varied despite another respectable PBoC liquidity effort with the mood slightly clouded as Evergrande concerns persisted with Co. shares suffering double-digit percentage losses after it resumed trade for the first time in three weeks and after its deal to sell a stake in Evergrande Property Services fell through, while reports that Modern Land China cancelled its USD 250mln bond repayment plan on liquidity issues added to the ongoing default concerns although it was later reported that Evergrande secured a three-month extension on USD 260mln Jumbo Fortune bond which matured on October 3rd. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded flat with the underperformance in Japanese stocks helping government bonds overlook the pressure in global counterparts and continued losses in T-note futures following the weak 20yr auction stateside, although demand for JGBs was limited by the absence of BoJ purchases. Top Asian News China Vows to Keep Property Curbs, Evergrande Risk Seen Limited Abu Dhabi Funds Hunt for Asian Unicorns Ahead of IPOs: ECM Watch Biden’s Pick for China Envoy Draws Sharp Lines With Beijing Carlyle, KKR Among Firms Said to Mull $2 Billion Tricor Bid Bourses in Europe have held onto the downside bias seen since the cash open, but with losses less pronounced (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%; Stoxx 600 -0.2%) despite a distinct lack of news flow in the EU morning, and as Chinese property woes weighed on APAC markets, but with earnings seasons picking up globally. US equity futures are also softer with modest and broad-based losses ranging from 0.2-0.3%. Back to Europe, the Netherland’s AEX (+0.3%) outperforms as Unilever (+3.3%) also lifts the Personal & Household Goods sector (current outperformer) following its earnings, whereby underlying sales growth of +2.5%, as +4.1% price growth offset a -1.5% decline in volumes, whilst the group noted: "Cost inflation remains at strongly elevated levels, and this will continue into next year". The AEX is also lifted by Randstad (+4.5%) post earnings after underlying EBITDA topped forecasts. Sectors in Europe are mixed with a slight defensive bias. On the downside, there is clear underperformance in Basic Resources as base metals pull back, whilst Oil & Gas names similarly make their way down the ranks. In terms of individual movers. ABB (-5%) resides at the foot of the SMI (+0.2%) as the group sees revenue growth hampered by supply constraints. Nonetheless, flows into Food & Beverages supports heavy-weight Nestle (+1.0%) which in turn supports the Swiss index. Other earnings-related movers include Barclays (-0.4%), SAP (+1.5%), Carrefour (+1.5%), Nordea (-1.8%), and Swedbank (+2.7%). Top European News Volvo Warns More Chip Woes Ahead Will Curtail Truck Production Hermes Advances After Dispelling Worries on China Demand Stagflation Risk Still Means Quick Rate Hikes for Czech Banker Weidmann Exit Could Pave Way for Bundesbank’s First Female Chief In FX, the Dollar has regained some composure across the board amidst a downturn in broad risk sentiment, but also further retracement in US Treasuries from bull-flattening to bear-steepening in wake of an abject 20 year auction that hardly bodes well for the announcement of next week’s 2, 5 and 7 year issuance, or Usd 19 bn 5 year TIPS supply due later today. In index terms, a firmer base and platform around 94.500 appears to be forming between 93.494-701 parameters ahead of initial claims, the Philly Fed and more housing data as the focus switches to existing home sales, while latest Fed speak comes via Daly and Waller. However, the DXY and Greenback in general may encounter technical resistance as the former eyes upside chart levels at 93.884 (23.6% Fib of September’s move) and 93.917 (21 DMA), while a major basket component is also looking in better shape than it has been of late as the Yen reclaims more lost ground from Wednesday’s near 4 year lows to retest 114.00 in the run up to Japanese CPI tomorrow. NZD/AUD/NOK - No real surprise to see the high beta Antipodeans bear the brunt of their US rival’s revival and the Kiwi unwind some of its post-NZ CPI outperformance irrespective of the nation’s FTA accord in principle with the UK, while the Aussie has also taken a deterioration in NAB quarterly business business confidence into consideration. Nzd/Usd is back below 0.7200 and Aud/Usd has retreated through 0.7500 after stalling just shy of 0.7550 before comments from RBA Governor Lowe and the flash PMIs. Elsewhere, the Norwegian Crown has largely shrugged off the latest Norges Bank lending survey showing steady demand for credit from households and non-financial institutions, but seems somewhat aggrieved by the pullback in Brent from just above Usd 86/brl to under Usd 85 at one stage given that Eur/Nok is hovering closer to the top of a 9.7325-9.6625 range. EUR/CHF/GBP/CAD - All softer against their US counterpart, albeit to varying degrees as the Euro retains a relatively secure grip around 1.1650, the Franc straddles 0.9200, Pound pivots 1.3800 and Loonie tries to contain declines into 1.2350 having reversed from yesterday’s post-Canadian CPI peaks alongside WTI, with the spotlight turning towards retail sales on Friday after a passing glance at new housing prices. SEK/EM - Some traction for the Swedish Krona in a tight band mostly sub-10.0000 vs the Euro from a fall in the nsa jobless rate, but the Turkish Lira seems jittery following a drop in consumer confidence and pre-CBRT as another 100 bp rate cut is widely expected, and the SA Rand is on a weaker footing ahead of a speech by the Energy Minister along with Eskom’s CEO. Meanwhile, the Cnh and Cnh have lost a bit more momentum against the backdrop of ongoing stress in China’s property market, and regardless of calls from the Commerce Ministry for the US and China to work together to create conditions for the implementation of the Phase One trade deal, or fees on interbank transactions relating to derivatives for SMEs being halved. In commodities, WTI and Brent Dec futures have gradually drifted from the overnight session peaks of USD 83.96/bbl and USD 86.10/bbl respectively. The downturn in prices seems to have initially been a function of risk sentiment, with APAC markets posting losses and Europe also opening on the back foot. At the time of writing, the benchmark resides around under USD 83/bbl for the former and sub-USD 85/bbl for the latter. Participants at this point are on the lookout for state interventions in a bid to keep prices from running. Over in China, it’s worth keeping an eye on the COVID situation – with China's Beijing Daily stating "citizens and friends are not required to leave the country, do not gather, do not travel or travel to overseas and domestic medium- and high-risk areas", thus translating to lower activity. That being said, yesterday’s commentary from the Saudi Energy Minister indicated how adamant OPEC is to further open the taps. UBS sees Brent at USD 90/bbl in December and March, before levelling off to USD 85/bbl for the remainder of 2022 vs prev. USD 80/bbl across all timelines. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are relatively flat around USD 1,785 and USD 22.25 with nothing new nor interesting to report thus far, and with the precious metals moving in tandem with the Buck. Base metals meanwhile are softer across the board as global market risk remains cautious, with LME copper trading on either side of USD 10k/t. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 2.55m, prior 2.59m 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 297,000, prior 293,000 8:30am: Oct. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 25.0, prior 30.7 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 51.2 10am: Sept. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 3.6%, prior -2.0% 10am: Sept. Leading Index, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9% 10am: Sept. Home Resales with Condos, est. 6.09m, prior 5.88m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I watched the first of the new series of Succession last night. I like this program as it makes me think I’ve got a totally normal and non-dysfunctional family. It’s a good benchmark to have. There are few dysfunctional worries in equities at the moment as even with the pandemic moving back onto investors’ radars, the resurgence in risk appetite showed no sign of diminishing yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.37%) closing just a whisker below early September’s record high. It’s an impressive turnaround from where the narrative was just a few weeks ago, when the index had fallen by over -5% from its peak as concerns from Evergrande to a debt ceiling crunch set the agenda. But the removal of both risks from the immediate horizon along with another round of positive earnings reports have swept away those anxieties. And this has come even as investors have become increasingly sceptical about the transitory inflation narrative, as well as fresh signs that Covid-19 might be a serious issue once again this winter. Starting with the good news, US equities led the way yesterday as a number of global indices closed in on their all-time highs. As mentioned the S&P 500 rallied to close just -0.02% beneath its record, which came as part of a broad-based advance that saw over 75% of the index move higher. Elsewhere, the Dow Jones (+0.43%) also closed just below its all-time high back in August. After the close, Tesla fell short of revenue estimates but beat on earnings, despite materials shortages and port backlogs that have prevented production from reaching full capacity, a common refrain by now. Overall 17 out of 23 S&P 500 companies beat expectations yesterday, meaning that the US Q3 season beat tally is now 67 out of 80. Meanwhile in Europe, equities similarly saw advances across the board, with the STOXX 600 (+0.32%) hitting its highest level in over a month, as it moved to just 1.2% beneath its record back in August. For sovereign bonds it was a more mixed picture, with 10yr Treasury yields moving higher again as concerns about inflation continued to mount. By the close of trade, the 10yr yield had risen +2.0bps to 1.57%, which was driven by a +4.6bps increase in inflation breakevens to 2.60%, their highest level since 2012. That came as oil prices hit fresh multi-year highs after the US EIA reported that crude oil inventories were down -431k barrels, and gasoline inventories were down -5.37m barrels, which puts the level of gasoline inventories at their lowest since November 2019. That saw both WTI (+1.10%) and Brent crude (+0.87%) reverse their earlier losses, with WTI closing at a post-2014 high of $83.87/bbl, whilst Brent hit a post-2018 high of $85.82/bbl. Yields on 2yr Treasuries fell -1.0bps however, after Fed Vice Chair Quarles and President Mester joined Governor Waller in pushing back against the more aggressive path of Fed rate hikes that has recently been priced in. Even so however, money markets are still implying around 1.75 hikes in 2022, about one more hike than was priced a month ago. Separately in Europe, sovereign bonds posted a much stronger performance, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.0bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-3.4bps) all moving lower. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading higher this morning with the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%), CSI (+0.35%) and KOSPI (+0.23%) all advancing, whilst the Hang Seng (-0.20%) and the Nikkei (-0.45%) have been dragged lower by healthcare and IT respectively. Meanwhile Evergrande Group (-12.60%) fell sharply in Hong Kong after news that it ended talks on the sale of a majority stake in its property services division to Hopson Development. And we’ve also seen a second day of sharp moves lower in Chinese coal futures (-11.0%) as the government is mulling measures to curb speculation. And there have also been a number of fresh Covid cases in China, with 21 new cases reported yesterday, as the city of Lanzhou moved to shut down schools in response. Elsewhere in Asia, with just 10 days now until Japan’s general election, a poll by Kyodo News found that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party would likely maintain its parliamentary majority. Futures markets are indicating a slow start for markets in the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and the DAX (-0.05%) both pointing lower. As we’ve been mentioning this week, the Covid-19 pandemic is increasingly returning onto the market radar, with the number of global cases having begun to tick up again. This has been reflected in a number of countries tightening up restrictions, and yesterday saw Russian President Putin approve a government proposal that October 31 to November 7 would be “non-working days”. In the Czech Republic, it was announced that mask-wearing would be compulsory in all indoor spaces from next week, and New York City moved to mandate all municipal workers to get vaccinated, with no alternative negative test result option now available. In Singapore, it was announced that virus restrictions would be extended for another month, which includes a limit on outdoor gatherings to 2 people and a default to work from home. Finally in the UK, the weekly average of cases has risen above 45k per day, up from just under 30k in mid-September. There is lots of talk about the need to put in place some additional restrictions but it feels we’re a fair way from that in terms of government-mandated ones. From central banks, it was announced yesterday that Bundesbank president Weidmann would be stepping down on December 31, leaving his position after just over a decade. He said that he was leaving for personal reasons, and in his letter to the Bundesbank staff, said that “it will be crucial not to look one-sidedly at deflationary risks, but not to lose sight of prospective inflationary dangers either.” It’ll be up to the next government to decide on the new appointment. Staying on Europe, our economists have just released an update to their GDP forecasts, with downgrades to their near-term expectations as supply shortages for goods and energy have created headwinds for the recovery. They now see 2021 growth at +4.9% (down -0.1pp from their previous forecast), whilst 2022 has been downgraded to 4.0% (-0.5pp). Alongside that, they’ve also included the latest oil and gas price movements into their inflation forecasts, and now project Euro Area 2022 HICP at 2.3%, although they don’t see this above-target inflation persisting, with their 2023 HICP forecast remaining unchanged at 1.5%. You can read the full note here. Speaking of inflation, we had a couple of inflation releases yesterday, including the UK’s CPI data for September, which came in slightly beneath expectations at 3.1% (vs. 3.2% expected), whilst core CPI also fell to 2.9% vs. 3.0% expected). As we discussed earlier this week though, there was some downward pressure from base effects, since in September 2020 we had a recovery in restaurant and cafe prices after the government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme in August ended, and that bounce back has now dropped out of the annual comparisons. UK inflation will rise a fair amount in the months ahead. Otherwise, we also had the CPI release from Canada for September, which rose to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected), which is its highest reading since February 2003. Finally, bitcoin hit an all-time high, with the cryptocurrency up +2.92% to close at a record $65,996, which was slightly down from its intraday peak of $66,976. Bitcoin has surged over recent weeks, and as it stands it’s up +49.3% so far this month at time of writing, which would mark its strongest monthly performance so far this year. This latest move has occurred along with the first trading of options on Bitcoin-linked ETFs, which the US first listed the day prior. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for September, the Conference Board’s leading index for September, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for October. Central bank speakers will include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Visco, while the Central Bank of Turkey will be making its latest monetary policy decision. Otherwise, earnings releases include Intel, Danaher, AT&T and Union Pacific. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/21/2021 - 08:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 21st, 2021

Goods that haven"t left China yet won"t be here in time for the holidays

It currently takes an average of 73 days for shipments from China to reach their destination in the US, but Christmas is in 71 days. AP Shipments from China to the US take about 73 days to reach their destination - two days after Christmas. The problem is only expected to get worse in the coming weeks as record backlogs meet soaring demand. Several major retailers have taken steps to side-step the issue, but it might not be enough. It might already be too late to start holiday shopping.The US receives much of its goods from overseas, in particular China, which serves as a primary source for anything from furniture and auto parts to tech and toys. It currently takes an average of 73 days for shipments from China to the US to reach their final destination, according to data from Freightos, an online freight marketplace. But, Christmas is in 71 days. What's more, delays are only expected to lengthen in the weeks leading up to the holiday season, rising from levels that are currently 83% higher than pre-pandemic shipping timelines. For consumers, the lengthened turnaround times mean the longer they wait to shop, the more likely they are to face shortages this holiday season. Shoppers who are ordering goods online might also not be able to receive their items until after the holiday season has passed. While many major retailers like Amazon and Walmart are known for their well-stocked warehouses - even large companies are racing to replenish diminished inventory levels since the pandemic started."Shortages are guaranteed," Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, told Insider. "Retailers are taking a lot of steps, especially going into peak shopping season, but there's only so much you can do." Container ships wait off the coast of the congested ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, in Long Beach, California, U.S., September 29, 2021. Mike Blake/REUTERS Earlier this week, the White House announced a 90-day plan to address the backlogs, but it is only expected to help move an extra 3,500 shipping containers a week from ports in Southern California. Meanwhile, the ports have about 500,000 shipping containers floating along the shore, waiting to dock and unload. Storms and power outages have also slowed down shipments out of China. In the US, massive backlogs at key ports, railroads, and warehouses have companies scrambling to find new ways to bring in goods. At the same time, the entire industry has been faced with a shortage of truckers and warehouse workers.UBS analysts noted Thursday that the supply chain has become so fragile since the coronavirus pandemic started that even minor disruptions of one to two weeks "could result in meaningful disruption" this holiday season. The CEO of a mid-sized toy company, Basic Fun, told Bloomberg earlier this month that his company has about $8 million or 140 shipping containers worth of goods waiting at a single factory in Shenzhen alone."I got Tonka trucks in the south and Care Bears in the north," Jay Foreman, Basic Fun's CEO, said. "We'll blow last year's numbers away [in sales], but the problem is we don't know if we'll get the last four months of the year shipped. The supply chain is a disaster, and it's only getting worse."A recent survey from UKG, a workforce-management group, found that about 85% of retailers expect supply-chain disruptions to affect customers.Many executives were warning customers to order their holiday shopping goods in August and September. Last month, Nike warned investors that they expected there would be shortages of popular products like sneakers due to factory shutdowns overseas and shipping delays. Getty Images/Sasin Tipchai "I half-jokingly tell people, 'Order your Christmas presents now because otherwise on Christmas Day, there may just be a picture of something that's not coming until February or March,'" UPS President Scott Price said in August. On Wednesday, Insider reported "supply chain" has become a hot topic in investor meetings. Several major companies have attempted to side-step supply-chain snags. Earlier this month, Coca-Cola announced it was chartering bulk shipping vessels usually reserved for transporting raw materials like coal and iron.Other companies like Walmart said they have started chartering smaller vessels to avoid backlogged ports like those in Southern California, while Home Depot, Nordstrom, and Levi have shifted to using more air cargo planes."Our intent is to meet consumer demand," Levi CFO Harmit Singh told investors earlier in October. "And economically, if you have to air freight, we will air freight to meet that."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

Apple Tumbles After iPhone Production Goal Slashed On Chip Shortage

Apple Tumbles After iPhone Production Goal Slashed On Chip Shortage So much for all those lofty production forecasts... Hours after Apple announced the date of its next major product event, Bloomberg is reporting that Apple is likely being forced to slash production targets for the iPhone 13 by as many as 10MM units due to "prolonged chip shortages," according to Bloomberg's sources. Per BBG, Apple was previously expected to produce 90MM new iPhones during the last three months of this year, but it's now telling its subcontractors and manufacturing partners the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough component chips. The news sent Apple shares sliding after hours... ...taking the rest of the market with it. Apple is one of the world's largest buyers of chips, and its production needs typically set the tone for the global tech supply chain. But it's already having trouble sourcing enough chips to meet its holiday production target. Here are some key takeaways from the Bloomberg report: Apple gets display parts from Texas Instruments, while Broadcom is its longtime supplier of wireless components. One of the TI chips in short supply for the latest iPhones is needed to power the OLED display. Apple also is facing component shortages from other suppliers, it's not just TI and Broadcom. The shortages have already hampered Apple’s capacity to ship new models to customers who have already placed orders, since the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max went on sale in September. Unfortunately, orders won’t be delivered from Apple’s website for about a month. And the new devices are listed as “currently unavailable” for pickup at many retailers. Current orders are slated to ship around mid-November, so Apple could still get the phones to consumers in time for the crucial holiday season. Previously, Apple has said that this year-end quarter is expected to see its biggest sales blitz yet, with the company hoping to generate $120 billion in sales, what would be a 7% increase from a year earlier (and more money than Apple made in an entire year a decade ago).  A supply chain analysis of Apple shows it has 679 suppliers - of them, Foxconn, Pegatron, and Quanta Computer have the most revenue exposure to the company.  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg published a story examining Apple's fraying relationship with the CCP. China has always been a critical growth market for Apple, and CEO Tim Cook has long won praise from the press and his peers for his ability to balance his relationships in China with priorities in the US, especially during an age of contentious issues like Beijing's crackdown on Hong Kong and the outbreak of the COVID pandemic. Last month, China granted citizens the right to sue Apple for abusing its market power. Now, "Xi's campaign threatens a delicate balance Apple has cultivated in China." The takeaway from all this: Despite its dominance in the global consumer-tech hierarchy, Apple isn't immune to the supply chain woes afflicting the entire global economy. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/12/2021 - 16:14.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 12th, 2021

Your favorite snacks, sweets, and spices may be hard to find as more shortages hit the US

Products like Ben & Jerry's ice cream, Kellogg's cereal, and McCormick spices are expected to be low in stock in stores as more shortages hit the US. REUTERS/Mike Blake Spices, sweets, and snacks made by popular brands may be hard to come by as the US grapples with ongoing supply chain issues. Kellogg's cereal, Ben & Jerry's ice cream, and McCormick spices are the latest items in short supply, according to CNN Business. Everything from food, clothes, cars, and plastics is impacted by delays in transportation and manufacturing. More items are going to be hard to find at grocery stores as shortages hit the US.Spices, sweets, and snacks made by popular brands like certain Kellogg's cereal products, Sour Patch Kids candy, some Ben & Jerry's ice cream flavors, McCormick gourmet spices, and Marie Callender's pot pies are expected to be hard to find as manufacturers are hit with delays, CNN Business reported. Kellogg told at least four grocery distributors last month in an email that Pringles Snacks Stacks, Eggo pancakes, Rice Krispies Treats snacks, and some of the company's meat products "will remain below service expectations" through the end of the year, according to CNN Business.Approximately 1,400 workers at Kellogg are also on strike, demanding better health care, retirement benefits, and holiday and vacation pay. The union indicated workers in these cities produce Rice Krispies, one of the items expected to be impacted by these shortages.Kellogg is currently "implementing contingency plans to mitigate supply disruptions," Kris Bahner, a Kellogg spokesperson, told Insider in an email. "In instances where capacity is constrained, this means limiting orders over certain time periods while also encouraging full truck loads to ensure we service every community, customer and shopper the best we can."Unilever, the manufacturer of Ben & Jerry's ice cream is prioritizing "top-selling items" while they battle a "limited ability to meet demand" caused by labor shortages, according to an email obtained by CNN that Unilever sent to a distributor. Unilever did not respond to Insider's request to comment before publishing.McCormick's Gourmet is the only product line impacted by the ongoing packaging shortage the company is facing, Lori Robinson, a spokesperson for McCormick, said in an email to CNN Business. McCormick did not respond to Insider's request to comment on when shoppers can see its full range of products back on shelves.Recently, shortages have been hitting stores across the US as companies are hit with supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing process. Everything from food, clothes, cars, paper, and plastics has been impacted by delays in transportation and manufacturing, while shortages in workers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing strikes add to the disruptions.Manufacturers have had to find creative solutions to battle these disruptions in the supply chain, such as renting their own container ships to sidestep delays in product shipments and empty shelves in their stores ahead of the holiday shopping season.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 10th, 2021

5 Solid Stocks to Buy on a Thriving Semiconductor Industry

Growing demand for microchips amid supply crunch has been helping companies like NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Semtech Corporation (SMTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Several industries have been hit hard owing to the global semiconductor shortage. Even microchip makers are struggling to meet the global demand. However, that has been working miracles for the semiconductor industry, with sales surging every month.According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global microchip sales rose both month over month and year over year in August. And with no signs of the shortage easing, sales are likely to be high in the coming months.Semiconductor Sales Rise in AugustThe SIA said on Oct 5 that global semiconductor sales reached $47.2 billion in August, jumping 29.7% year over year from $36.4 billion. Moreover, sales rose 3.3% from July’s total of $45.7 billion.According to SIA, chip shipments have been on the rise and hit record highs in recent months as the industry continued to ramp up production owing to a huge demand for microchips across major industries, including auto, computers and electronic goods.Sales grew across all regions on a year-over-year basis in August, with sales jumping 33.5% in Europe, 30.8% in China, 28.2% in the Asia Pacific, 30.6% in the Americas and 23.8% in Japan. Month over month,sales increased 4.9% in Americas, 3.4% in China, 3.3% in Japan, 2.6% in Asia Pacific/All Other,and 1.5% in Europe.Semiconductor Industry BoomingAfter an outstanding 2020, the dream run for the semiconductor industry has continued this year. While the pandemic took its toll on several industries, the semiconductor industry continued to thrive. As more people worked and learned from home, they invested heavily in electronic items, computers and accessories. This gave a thrust to the demand for microchips, thus helping drive sales.However, the problem now seems to be a different one. While microchip has been soaring on higher demand, industries are now facing supply shortages that are affecting them. The auto industry and computer makers seem to be the biggest sufferers of this shortage.According to IHS Markit, microchip shortage will see a cut in production of vehicles by 700,000 in the third quarter, as carmakers continue to halt production temporarily. According to Bloomberg, this could result in a loss of $61 billion in revenues by the end of this year.Industry executives now believe that this supply crunch could continue into 2022 and even 2023. However, this will only benefit the semiconductor industry. Semiconductor sales came in at $133.6 billion in the second quarter, reflecting an increase of 29.2% year over year and a jump of 8.3% from the first quarter of 2021.Our ChoicesGiven the rising demand for semiconductors and continuing supply crunch, the semiconductor industry is only likely to benefit in the near term. Below are five chip stocks that investors can gain from in the current scenario.Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN is an original equipment manufacturer of analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal processing integrated circuits. The company recently announced that it wouldbe introducing a new TI-84 graphing calculator that will support the programing language Python.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 31.7%. Its shares advanced 2.1% in the past 30 days. Texas Instruments carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.NVIDIA Corporation NVDA is the worldwide leader in visual computing technologies and inventor of the graphic processing unit, GPU. Over the years, the company’s focus has evolved from PC graphics to artificial intelligence-based solutions that now support high-performance computing, gaming and virtual reality platforms.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 68%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 5.8% over the past 60 days. Nvidia has a Zacks Rank #2.Analog Devices, Inc. ADI is an original equipment manufacturer of semiconductor devices, specifically analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing integrated circuits.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 30.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 2.2% over the past 60 days. Analog Devices carries a Zacks Rank #2.Semtech Corporation’s SMTC devices are used in a variety of applications including computer, communications, industrial, military-aerospace and automotive. The company also provides a limited amount of wafer foundry services to other electronic component manufacturers.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 45.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 5.8% over the past 60 days. Semtech has a Zacks Rank #1.Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. VSH is a global manufacturer and supplier of semiconductors and passive components. Its products include metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors, Diodes and Optoelectronic Components.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 8.3% over the past 60 days. Vishay Intertechnology has a Zacks Rank #2. Zacks’ Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence This world-changing technology is projected to generate $100s of billions by 2025. From self-driving cars to consumer data analysis, people are relying on machines more than we ever have before. Now is the time to capitalize on the 4th Industrial Revolution. Zacks’ urgent special report reveals 6 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 6 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI): Free Stock Analysis Report Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Semtech Corporation (SMTC): Free Stock Analysis Report Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (VSH): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 6th, 2021