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Peter Schiff And Ben Shapiro: The Government Is Wrecking The Economy

Peter Schiff And Ben Shapiro: The Government Is Wrecking The .....»»

Category: worldSource: nytMay 25th, 2021

3 Promising MedTech Stocks to Snap Up in Second-Half 2021

Backed by robust long-term prospects, investors can add three lucrative MedTech stocks, MMSI, ITGR and OFIX, to their watchlist. After a volatile 2020, economies globally exhibited signs of sustained recovery in the first half of 2021. Although there are concerns regarding the highly-transmissible Delta variant in some parts of the United States and the world, case counts have been on the decline. However, certain states are grappling with rise in the variant cases as the country heads toward fall season and colder weather.Nevertheless, with 70% of adults in the United States having received at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine (according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data), the optimism is palpable.The MedTech sector has shown tremendous strength since the beginning of this year. It has been exhibiting recovery and gaining traction on the back of economy rebounding and normalization based on mass vaccinations.The lingering effects of the pandemic might impact the MedTech space in both positive and negative ways in 2021. It is worth mentioning that the sector showed considerable strength last year despite the pandemic-induced disruption. Therefore, it would be a prudent decision to capitalize on the MedTech space. Let us delve deeper.MedTech Space Gaining SteamAlthough companies involved in diagnostic testing experienced high demand during the peak of the pandemic, these players saw a substantial decline in demand for COVID-19 testing due to the changing testing landscape on account of a significant reduction in coronavirus cases and the rollout of vaccines globally.The Delta variant, however, has brought about changes as President Joe Biden announced a new mandate on Sep 9 aimed at curbing the surge in COVID-19 infections, which signals a sharp rise in testing. The President’s plan on the diagnostic side of the mandate calls for the government to work on ramping up test supply. According to a Reuters report, QIAGEN QGEN has already shown support for this mandate. At the same time, Abbott ABT stated that it is rapidly working to scale up manufacturing of its BinaxNOW and ID NOW test kits, and hiring additional employees.Apart from this, digital health will continue to gain immensely on the back of last year’s momentum. This year is likely to see companies involved in telemedicine and artificial intelligence make necessary technological advancements to better serve patients.The pandemic led to a change in the business models with companies leaning toward virtualized, remote-operated business models for medical care, which in turn, have helped the companies recover and attain pre-COVID-19 levels.With the increasing dependence on self-monitoring tools, the wearable devices space continues to show strength, thereby instilling further optimism in investors.Elective procedures, although, are expected to remain under pressure this year. J.P. Morgan analysts projected (as published in a MedTech Dive report) that vaccination might help in driving volumes but procedure comebacks are not likely to be seen until the second half of 2021.3 Lucrative PicksGiven the MedTech space’s resilience and prevailing prospects, investors can choose to invest in MedTech stocks that have shown tremendous promise despite challenging market conditions and are fundamentally strong. To narrow down the list, we have selected three stocks with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of B. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Merit Medical Systems, Inc. MMSI: In the second quarter of 2021, Merit Medical displayed considerable strength with better-than-expected results. The company saw revenue growth not only in both its segments but also across all product categories within its Cardiovascular unit. Strong execution and improving customer demand trends owing to the gradual business recovery fueled the overall top-line performance. The company stands to benefit from the execution of its global growth and profitability plan. A robust product line and other internally developed products raise investors’ optimism on the stock. Expansion of both margins bodes well. A raised financial outlook for the full year also augurs well. The company’s long-term earnings growth rate is projected at 12.7%.Shares of the company gained 76.7% in the past year, compared with the industry’s growth of 36.9%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInteger Holdings Corporation ITGR: Integer Holdings exited the second quarter of 2021 with better-than-expected results. Robust segmental performances and strength in the majority of the product lines are impressive. Continued business recovery, despite U.S. labor constraints and global supply chain disruptions, is encouraging. Expansion of both margins also bodes well for the stock. A raised financial outlook raises our optimism. Management, during the second-quarter 2021 earnings call in July, reiterated its stance of sustained investment in the execution of its strategy to drive above-market top-line growth and continued margin expansion. For 2021, the company’s earnings growth rate is projected at 43.7%.In the past year, shares of the company appreciated 57.3% compared with the industry’s rally of 21.8%.  Orthofix Medical Inc. OFIX: Orthofix Medical exhibited robust second-quarter 2021 results, wherein it delivered top-line growth on a year-over-year basis and above pre-COVID levels. The company saw significant improvement in U.S. Spinal Implant net sales, and solid performance from its U.S. M6-C artificial cervical disc and FITBONE limb lengthening system with about $9 million in combined sales. A raised 2021 revenue outlook buoys optimism in the stock. For 2021, the company’s earnings growth rate is projected at 200%.In the past year, shares of the company climbed 37.6% compared with the industry’s rise of 21.8%. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Abbott Laboratories (ABT): Free Stock Analysis Report ORTHOFIX MEDICAL INC. (OFIX): Free Stock Analysis Report QIAGEN N.V. (QGEN): Free Stock Analysis Report Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI): Free Stock Analysis Report Integer Holdings Corporation (ITGR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks1 hr. 15 min. ago

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 15 min. ago

Evergrande Rocked By WSJ Report China "Making Preparations For Its Demise"; EV Unit Stops Paying Staff, Suppliers

Evergrande Rocked By WSJ Report China "Making Preparations For Its Demise"; EV Unit Stops Paying Staff, Suppliers Update (0810ET): Piling on to the chaotic swings in Evergrande, Bloomberg reports that the embattled property developer's electric-car unit has missed salary payments to some of its employees and has fallen behind on paying a number of suppliers for factory equipment, according to people familiar with the matter. Most employees at Evergrande NEV are paid at the start of every month and again on the 20th, however for some mid-level managers, the second installment for September hasn’t arrived, the people said. Several equipment suppliers, meanwhile, began withdrawing their on-site personnel from the Shanghai and Guangzhou sites as early as July after payments for machinery in Evergrande NEV’s factories weren’t made. This is clear evidence that the company's financial fragilities are having an impact beyond its core business. *  *  * It has been a rollercoaster session for Evergrande this morning. It started off optimistically enough, with Evergrande stock - which hit an all time low earlier this week in Hong Kong trading - soaring as much as 30% on furious short covering in early trading following news that the company would make an interest payment on local bonds... ... even though the big question for today was whether foreign creditors, who are also owed an $83.5 million interest payment Thursday, would get their money. In a few hours we will learn the fate of Evergrande's offshore bonds — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 22, 2021 Evergrande pared its gains before the close as selling shareholders took advantage of the price spike to continuing unloading shares, although the mood was decidedly more hopeful than on previous day, and pushed US equity futures sharply higher this morning. Said mood became even more euphoric just after 5am ET when Bloomberg blasted a flashing red headline for a report that China had told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default...  ... in which Bloomberg reported that according to "a person familiar with the matter", financial regulators in Beijing "issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds." The report added that "in a recent meeting with Evergrande representatives, regulators said the company should communicate proactively with bondholders to avoid a default but didn’t give more specific guidance." And while even Bloomberg conceded that the regulatory guidance "offers few clues about what an Evergrande endgame might look like, it does suggest China’s government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer that might roil financial markets and drag down economic growth." In other words, even more good news, with Beijing explicitly demanding that Evergrande should make foreign creditors whole and the implication being that an Evergrande collapse may be avoided. Or so the market though, until exactly one hour later when in a separate flashing red headline... .. Bloomberg informed the world of a story published away in the WSJ, which delivered just the opposite news, namely that "China Makes Preparations for Evergrande’s Demise" and that "authorities are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of China Evergrande Group." The report, which also cited anonymous "officials familiar with the discussions" who may or may not have major financial exposure to Evergrande - which we assume are different anonymous sources from the ones Bloomberg used - signaled "a reluctance to bail out the debt-saddled property developer while bracing for any economic and social fallout from the company’s travails." The WSJ then notes that "officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” but it also gives the suggestion that a nationalization of Evergrande is on the table, quoting those same officials as "saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." They said that local governments have been tasked with preventing unrest and mitigating the ripple effect on home buyers and the broader economy, for example by limiting job losses—scenarios that have grown in likelihood as Evergrande’s situation has worsened. The report also notes that local governments have been ordered to "assemble groups of accountants and legal experts to examine the finances around Evergrande’s operations in their respective regions, talk to local state-owned and private property developers to prepare to take over local real-estate projects and set up law-enforcement teams to monitor public anger and so-called “mass incidents,” a euphemism for protests, according to the people." In other words, just as we explained in "How Evergrande Became Too Big To Fail And Why Beijing Will Have To Bail It Out", Beijing will be dragged in -kicking and screaming - with a bailout of Evergrande one way or another, in order to prevent Beijing's biggest nightmare - mass social unrest. That said, a nationalization scenario does not answer today's $640 billion question: will Evergrande's offshore bondholders be made whole, or will the upcoming nationalization  be part of a broader balance sheet restructuring. What we do know is that as of 645am ET this morning, Bloomberg also reported that two holders of a China Evergrande Group dollar bond with a coupon due later Thursday "said they hadn’t received payment as of 5pm Hong Kong time" with Bloomberg adding that "there was no immediate reply from Evergrande to questions about the interest payment."  In short, total chaos continues, market reaction notwithstanding, and we expect it will get far more confusing from here as Chinese "sources" use reputable US mainstream media sources to not only convey what is going on but to allow themselves (and their conflicts of interest) an exit mechanism. After all, it's not as if anyone will prosecute them for insider trading. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 09:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 15 min. ago

Banks Oppose Biden"s New "Total Financial Surveillance" Proposal On IRS Reporting

Banks Oppose Biden's New 'Total Financial Surveillance' Proposal On IRS Reporting Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times, Opposition is growing to a new proposal aimed at curbing tax evasion that would be part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package under consideration by Congress. The proposal, which is being pushed by the Biden administration, would require banks and other financial institutions to report to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) any deposits or withdrawals totaling more than $600 annually to or from all business and personal accounts. The American Bankers Association (ABA), along with over 40 business and financial groups, sent a letter on Sept. 17 to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) objecting to the “ill-advised” reporting proposal. “While the stated goal of this vast data collection is to uncover tax dodging by the wealthy, this proposal is not remotely targeted to that purpose or that population,” the letter stated. “In addition to the significant privacy concerns, it would create tremendous liability for all affected parties by requiring the collection of financial information for nearly every American without proper explanation of how the IRS will store, protect, and use this enormous trove of personal financial information.” The Biden administration has been pushing Democrats to include the proposal in the $3.5 trillion spending bill in an effort to address tax evasion, mainly by wealthy people. With the new reporting rule, “the wealthy can no longer hide what they’re making,” President Joe Biden said on Sept. 16 during a speech on the economy. “That isn’t about raising their taxes,” Biden added. “It’s about the super-wealthy finally beginning to pay what they owe.” The reporting regime aims to close the tax gap, according to the Treasury Department, which is the difference between taxes owed to the government and what’s actually paid. A report released by the Treasury in May stated that the new reporting rule would help “raise $460 billion over the next decade.” Almost every banking transaction and even transfers between one’s accounts would be aggregated and reported to the IRS, according to Paul Merski, group executive vice president at the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), which represents nearly 5,000 community banks in the United States. “It’s a dragnet, it’s a collection of data in the scale that we’ve never seen before in the financial sector,” Merski told The Epoch Times. ICBA is among the financial groups that strongly oppose Biden’s proposal, calling it an “overreach” by the federal government. Banks already report a tremendous amount of data to the IRS. According to a U.S. Government Accountability Office report, more than 3.5 billion information returns were received by the IRS for tax year 2018. A large number of these come from banks, ABA says. These include reporting interest paid on bank accounts, dividend income, brokerage transactions, mortgage interest, and more. Under the Bank Secrecy Act, U.S. financial institutions also report to the government all wire transfers over $10,000 as well as suspicious cash transactions to prevent criminal activities such as money laundering. “Banks are already reporting billions of pieces of information and you’re getting to the point where the banks are becoming the police force for the IRS,” Merski said. “I don’t think people, small business owners know about this profiling that the IRS wants to put together,” he added. “So, it’s basically a profiling; they want to see your transactions and create a profile on you, and if they don’t like what they see, then they can go after you.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) last week, asking Democrats to include a “sufficiently comprehensive” reporting provision in the bill “so that tax evaders are not able to structure financial accounts to avoid it.” It is unclear whether some version of the proposal will make it into the final bill, but the Ways and Means Committee left out the administration’s proposal in the legislation approved by the committee due to the growing backlash. Neal, however, indicated that the committee is in discussions with the administration on various proposals to increase reporting requirements. According to Merski, the provision could be added back to the budget reconciliation bill at any stage in the process, especially at the last minute. The bill only needs a simple majority to pass in the Senate. “Our fear is that this is so onerous that they’re waiting to the last second to put this in, but they’re dead serious about putting this proposal in,” he said. An ICBA poll conducted by Morning Consult found that 67 percent of voters oppose the new IRS reporting proposal. “The provision is a violation of Americans’ privacy rights and would be a crushing burden on community banks and credit unions struggling in the midst of the pandemic,” John Berlau, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told The Epoch Times. “The IRS already gets plenty of data on taxpayers through forms such as 1099s, and does not need instant access to these small transactions to go after tax cheats,” he said. According to the Treasury Department, Biden’s proposal is “integral to addressing evasion.” The tax gap disproportionately benefits wealthy people because their income mainly comes from “non-labor sources where misreporting is common,” the Treasury report stated. “The tax gap totaled nearly $600 billion in 2019 and will rise to about $7 trillion over the course of the next decade if left unaddressed.” Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 10:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 15 min. ago

Rabobank: We"re In A Charlton Heston Movie, But Which One?

Rabobank: We're In A Charlton Heston Movie, But Which One? By Michael Every of Rabobank We're in a Charlton Heston movie: which one? A reference to Charlton Heston means I lose readers who, despite having the sum of human knowledge at their fingertips, don’t know much recent history. Yet we are all in a Heston movie regardless – we just don’t know which one yet. That’s because markets, who also have the sum of human knowledge at their fingertips, don’t know much recent history either. I will run through the news Heston-ally, and suggest what that means for the movie we are all in. Let’s start with the good news on Covid. Bad as it gets, we are not in 1971’s ‘The Omega Man’, about the last-survivor of a Sino-Soviet biological war. However, the Fed flagged QE tapering. Philip Marey expects a formal announcement in November, with the actual start in December. FOMC Chair Powell expects tapering to end around mid-2022, implying a $20bn reduction in QE per meeting. The Fed’s dot plot shifted upward and moved closer to a first rate hike in 2022, with the participants evenly split between zero and 1-2 hikes; after 2022, it’s a steady pace of 3 hikes per year. The economic projections suggest the FOMC is still confident inflation spikes will be over by Q4 2022 – despite a record 73 ships waiting at LA/LB ports. (For the full report, please see here.) The market reaction, after initial confusion, was short US yields up,…and longer yields down and USD up. Recall how Minsky debt dynamics work - the change in the change is what matters; recall how pyramid schemes work; and recall how each previous attempt to normalize away from QE in an economy stronger than it is now has worked out. Taper tantrum fears? Not in DM, because there is no sign of any strength – thus the flattening curve. But for EM, inflation, stagflation, and policy-error deflation all now stalk the land. (Brazil just hiked rates to 6.25%, as expected: see here for more). See the key scene of 1968’s ‘The Planet of the Apes’ – with a lag. In October we could also see both a US government shutdown and a debt default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives yesterday does not pass the Senate. As Philip also notes, this is a game of chicken in which the Democrats try to force the Republicans to share the blame for suspending the debt limit in light of the midterm elections in 2022. He adds that this stand-off is completely unnecessary, and if the Republicans don’t blink, the Democrats can still raise the debt limit and adopt a spending patch through budget reconciliation. However, this will raise the internal pressure in the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s legislative agenda by adding another time constraint (see here). See the chariot race in 1959’s ‘Ben Hur’- but which charioteer is President Biden? “China’s Evergrande to be saved!” says Bloomberg, quoting someone else. “Saved” means being split into three firms and nationalized, with no indication of which investors get how much money back. Given today the struggling firm has to repay $83.5m to USD debt holders, who won’t want cement, unfinished flats, or a nudge-nudge-wink-wink, we shall soon find out. Few observers saw a direct risk of a Lehman moment, despite the dynamic referred to above at play, because there are no truly free actors in Chinese markets. However, this ‘salvation’ is in line with a “Marxification” of the economy. The implications for China and the world are something markets refuse to consider because it would give them indigestion. See the end of 1973’s ‘Soylent Green’ - when markets prefer to see the ‘soy’ and the ‘green’. Energy prices continue to soar, despite official assurances the authorities saw this coming, aren’t surprised, and have clear plans for what to do about it. UK energy firms are toppling, and European economies that were preaching the need for immediate shifts in climate policy are suddenly subsidizing fossil fuels again to prevent a looming 1970’s recessionary-style energy-price shock. Which means other people have to pay more instead. Russia is meanwhile laughing all the way to the bank. See 1976’s ‘The Two-Minute Warning’ - and if you are conversant in Cockney, see 1953’s ‘The Pony Express’. The Biden administration is reportedly to nominate Saule Omarova to run the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the bureau within the Treasury that charters, regulates, and supervises all national banks and thrift institutions and the federally licensed branches and agencies of foreign banks in the US. Omarova is a law professor who has criticized crypto, and advocates for the government to have a much larger role in banking. That comes after the SEC’s Gensler’s comments this week on stablecoins. See 1974’s ‘Earthquake’ or 1975’s imaginatively titled ‘Airport 1975’. US President Biden and French President Macron are attempting to build bridges burned over AUKUS. The French ambassador is now to return to DC, and Biden to come to Europe for talks next month. However, word on the street is that France, and French agriculture, now have the excuse to kick the planned Australia – EU FTA into the long grass even if the rest of the EU is in favour. The UK has also been sent scuttling from any thoughts of joining the USMCA. However, geopolitics leads and trade usually follows in today’s atmosphere. Japan’s outgoing PM Suga has also been exceptionally forthright, stating China’s rapidly growing military influence and unilateral changing of the status quo could present a risk to Japan. That’s ahead of a first in-person Quad meeting to be held on Friday at the White House. See 1976’s ‘The Last Hard Men’ (and for those who prefer fantasy to Western, see ‘“Orcs”, Elves/Hobbits, and Dragons’). In short, the overall market backdrop is perfect for Heston. Yes, the world has changed dramatically from the epoch where a card-carrying member of the NRA and the Republican Party could be a major Hollywood celebrity. But today is again epic; and gritty; and dystopian; with disease; and economic crises; energy crises; political crises; geopolitical crises; ideological crises; inflation; stagflation; and the backdrop of a shift in the global financial architecture. Not that this doesn’t mean most markets, and modern movies, don’t want to ignore it all and keep partying on as in 1992’s “Wayne’s World”, in which Heston also made a guest-appearance. Try doing that with less QE, less gas, less crypto, and more Marxism and geopolitical risks though. “It's been quite a ride. I loved every minute of it.” Charlton Heston (1923 - 2008) Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 10:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 15 min. ago

Retailers jostle over cut-price space as Brooklyn market looks for solid ground

The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY), the City’s leading real estate trade association, today released its Summer 2021 Brooklyn Retail Report which highlights steady leasing in the Brooklyn retail market as tenants capitalize on market opportunities in select trade areas. According to the report, demand is being driven primarily by... The post Retailers jostle over cut-price space as Brooklyn market looks for solid ground appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY), the City’s leading real estate trade association, today released its Summer 2021 Brooklyn Retail Report which highlights steady leasing in the Brooklyn retail market as tenants capitalize on market opportunities in select trade areas. According to the report, demand is being driven primarily by retailers taking fully built spaces, while recently increased activity among national retailers and e-commerce firms supplemented activity in select corridors. Despite the sustained leasing during the last six months, rents continue to slide lower in nearly all corridors. REBNY reported that asking retail rents throughout Brooklyn declined in 11 of the 17 reported corridors, with rents continuing to adjust amid New York City’s ongoing recovery from the pandemic. Average asking price per square foot (PPSF) rents throughout Brooklyn’s retail corridors fell by 10% or more in 10 retail corridors. DUMBO was the retail corridor with the largest year-over-year decline, experiencing a 23% decline in average asking rents in that time period. Corridors with a strong residential base, such as Cobble Hill and Park Slope, have fared better in the current market. A Park Slope corridor, for example, experienced a 10% increase in average asking rent year-over-year. “We continue to see the market adjust, creating new opportunities for both tenants and owners, as well as posing some challenges as we work to rebuild the City’s economy,” said REBNY President James Whelan. “It’s critical the public sector stay laser focused on the City’s recovery by adopting smart policies that drive strong economic development and increased business activity.” Top brokers in Brooklyn noted the marked intensification in tenant lease commitments throughout the spring and summer. Retailers continued to focus on second-generation space. While this was a key driver of leasing, national retailers and some e-commerce firms have also started to jump into the market in a few corridors. During 2020, an unprecedented amount of second-generation space was added along Brooklyn’s prime retail corridors. In 2021, the take-up of this fully built space was the key driver of steady leasing momentum. Realizing an opportunity to capture significant savings on build out-costs, particularly in locations that rarely come available, retailers started to commit to space early this year. This momentum continued throughout the summer. Recent openings include Aldama (91 S 6th St.); Harlem Shake (119 5th Ave); Sup Crab (664 Manhattan Ave); Ninety Nine Franklin (99 Franklin St) Mitzi Flexer “Brooklyn is comprised of many residential neighborhoods and is a melting pot. Since the pandemic, we have seen a proactive movement of leasing in these areas by national brands, who, preceding the pandemic, never looked at Brooklyn as a possibility for their flagship NYC brick and mortar,” said Mitzi Flexer, Senior Director of Brokerage at Cushman and Wakefield. “Though retail prices hit a bottom very early in the year, the softening of prices over the past few years has allowed a lot of local operators to take prime high street space again, as landlords accept softer terms without rigid credit standards,” said Peter Schubert, Managing Director, Commercial Leasing at TerraCRG. “Brooklyn-based retailers have really led the market back, reversing the trend of the last 10 years.” While the findings suggest a continued recovery in Brooklyn’s retail markets, brokers noted that the rebound is still in its early stages. The surging Delta variant of COVID-19, coupled with uncertainty over City and State government changes, could stem the progress. The continued decline in asking rents makes it clear that the market recovery is just starting – retailers may curb their appetite for space if external conditions deteriorate. REBNY’S Biannual Brooklyn Retail Report is a joint effort by the REBNY Brooklyn Retail Advisory Group and the REBNY team. The report provides a snapshot of major retail corridors in the borough based on available ground-floor retail asking rent information. All data is sourced from the respective firms of each REBNY Brooklyn Retail Advisory Group member. The report includes the average price per square foot, median price per square, the lowest price per square foot and highest price per square foot for each of the 17 retail corridors tracked. Download the complete Summer 2021 Brooklyn Retail Report here. The post Retailers jostle over cut-price space as Brooklyn market looks for solid ground appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweekly1 hr. 43 min. ago

Biden reportedly is set to nominate a law professor critical of crypto and big banks to run the OCC

Omarova previously served under President George W. Bush's administration as a special adviser for regulatory policy in the Treasury Department. The White House. Ken Cedeno/Reuters President Joe Biden is set to nominate Cornell University law professor Saule Omarova to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to a Bloomberg report. The banking law professor has been a critic of cryptocurrencies and envisions a larger role for the government in overseeing banks. Omarova needs Senate confirmation to serve a five-year term. See more stories on Insider's business page. President Joe Biden is preparing to nominate a Cornell University law professor who has been critical of cryptocurrencies and envisions a larger role for the government in overseeing banks to run the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to a Bloomberg report.Biden as soon as this week will name Saule Omarova as his choice to head the OCC, Bloomberg reported late Wednesday, citing three unnamed sources familiar with the nomination process. The OCC is a key regulator overseeing consumer banking and supervises large lenders such as Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.Omarova, a banking law professor, is expected to push for tougher oversight and rules in the industry. A native of Kazakhstan, Omarova in an October 2020 academic paper wrote about a blueprint for a "People's Ledger," or a comprehensive restructuring of the central bank balance sheet to democratize money and finance the world's largest economy. By separating the lending function from their monetary function, a proposed reform for banks would "effectively 'end banking,' as we know it," with Omarova making a direct play on the title of the 2014 book, "The End of Banking: Money, Credit, and the Digital Revolution". Biden's aides were vetting Omarova in August, according to The New York Times, noting that Omarova has said cryptocurrency operations could allow banks to conduct more trading activity out of oversight of the Federal Reserve and other regulators. Bloomberg reported that Omarova contends that digital tokens threaten to destabilize the economy and are vulnerable to abuse by private firms at the expense of public safeguards. Omarova served in President George W. Bush's administration as a special adviser for regulatory policy in the Treasury Department. She's practiced law at Davis Polk & Wardwell, specializing in corporate transactions and advisory work in financial regulation.If confirmed by the Senate to a five-year term, Omarova would take over from Michael Hsu, a former Fed official who has been running the OCC on an acting basis since May. Hsu this week told a blockchain panel that crypto and decentralized finance look similar to the financial instruments that sparked the 2008 global financial crisis.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt2 hr. 31 min. ago

"We always do this": Sen. Jon Tester expressed frustration about the battle over raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a government shutdown

If Congress doesn't act in time to avert a federal default, the financial consequences could send the nation into another recession. Sen. Jon Tester. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images Senate Democrats are struggling to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown. Sen. Jon Tester told Politico the fight between Democrats and the GOP was "a ridiculous exercise." "We always do this fucking dance," he told the outlet. See more stories on Insider's business page. Senate Democrats are growing increasingly frustrated as they try to pressure Republicans into accepting a debt-ceiling increase that GOP leaders have forcefully rejected, all while avoiding the political catastrophe of a government shutdown next week, according to Politico.And one Democrat in particular isn't mincing words over the stalemate."We always do this fucking dance," Sen. Jon Tester, a third-generation farmer from Montana, told Politico. "I don't know if people are going to put their sane minds on and do what needs to be done, or shut it down. This is just a ridiculous exercise."He added: "I can't even compare it to anything I do on the farm that's this stupid."Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday cemented his refusal to renew the nation's ability to pay its bills, telling Democrats not to "play Russian roulette" with the economy. But even though the House passed a bill Tuesday night that included both government funding and a debt-ceiling suspension, the legislation is likely to be torpedoed in the Senate, where McConnell has said Republicans will not support it.If Congress doesn't act in time to avert a federal default, the financial consequences could send the nation into another recession.So, while Democrats are eager to keep up their public pressure on Republicans to accept their proposal, in private the politicians are said to be willing to do whatever it takes to avoid a shutdown. According to Politico, doing so would almost certainly require Democrats to drop a borrowing-limit increase from their funding package.Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona told the outlet his party "can't allow the government to shut down." Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia echoed his sentiments. And Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland suggested other alternatives to raising the debt ceiling and securing the spending bill."I don't know which strategy they will use next," Cardin told Politico. "But I know there are other strategies, if this doesn't work."But time is running out. Democratic sources told the outlet the Senate was likely to vote on the House-passed funding bill on Monday, where it will almost certainly fail. Just four days later, on October 1, the government is set to shut down.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider3 hr. 59 min. ago

Here"s why state lawmakers are calling on the federal government to set a baseline for addressing the climate crisis

State lawmakers from Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina came together on Tuesday to talk about ways they were promoting climate action. Insider President Joe Biden called taking action on the climate crisis "code red for humanity" in an address to the UN General Assembly. Reuters/Pawel Kopczynski The federal government must address the climate, state lawmakers said at Climate Week NYC Tuesday. Federal action could help avoid "patchwork regulation" - but it may be difficult in some states. One lawmaker said her state focused on talking about jobs to get bipartisan climate-action support. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter, Insider Sustainability. The federal government must lead the way on broad climate policy, a group of state legislators said during a Climate Week NYC event on Tuesday.The session, titled "Keeping Cool: How States Are Leading on Climate Action" and sponsored by the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators, brought together state lawmakers from Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina to discuss how they were tackling issues like carbon emissions, while engaging their communities."We need federal action to set standards and then allow individual states to take those basic standards and build upon them for their constituencies," state Rep. Alex Valdez, a Colorado Democrat, said during the session. "We need a baseline because without a baseline, we don't have the support of industry. We don't have a place to build from."Federal action would also help avoid "patchwork regulation," something he said big businesses in industries such as oil and gas, which are responsible for emissions, didn't like. But Valdez acknowledged that passing climate-centric legislation may be easier in some states than others.In his address to the UN General Assembly this week, President Joe Biden called taking action on the climate crisis "code red for humanity" and said the world was approaching a "point of no return" when it came to extreme weather events, which are taking lives and causing billions of dollars in damage. Biden said he was working with Congress to create climate investments that would lead to well-paying jobs.State Sen. Reuven Carlyle, a Democrat from Washington, said it was still the states that had a "moral obligation to lead.""States have to envision a sustainable future, ultimately having the courage to tackle the system's issues of building an equitable approach to decarbonizing our economy," he said.Carlyle's hope is that states will set a baseline, which will then be responsibly calibrated at the national level, he said.One of the ways Washington state is taking climate action is through its law for 100% clean energy, which requires the state's utilities to move to a carbon-neutral electric supply by 2030 and hopes to eliminate fossil fuels by 2045. Earlier this year, the state also enacted the Climate Commitment Act, a cap-and-invest bill to reduce pollution in communities disproportionately affected by environmental and public-health issues. Washington engages key stakeholders in its climate initiatives, including for-profit entities, communities of color, low-income residents, and the business community, Carlyle said. Environmental equity is also a key part of climate policy in Oregon, where lawmakers have encouraged communities of color, low-income residents, and others to share their vision for climate action, state Rep. Khanh Pham, a Democrat, said during the session.The state recently passed the Energy Affordability Act to offer discounted rates on utility bills for low-income residents. It also established the Healthy Homes Program to provide weatherization funds focused on reducing energy consumption for residents and has committed to 100% clean electricity by 2040."Those are the goals that we wanted to tackle to make sure that we're not just addressing greenhouse-gas emission as an isolated case of just molecules in the sky, but really recognizing that racism, white supremacy, inequality, economic inequality are really at the heart of it," Pham said.While she echoed the need for a strong federal baseline to support states in climate action, Pham said both state and federal governments needed to focus on building resilient communities."We really have to take an interest, a deeper intersectional look at the challenges we face," she said.Partisanship is one challenge that many states face in taking climate action. Democratic Rep. Pricey Harrison of North Carolina, who moderated the session, said focusing on job creation and the economic influence of climate policy in her state had helped overcome some of these challenges.North Carolina is among the top states in solar-energy installations and has committed to reducing carbon emissions by 70% by 2030 and being carbon-neutral by 2050. These renewable-energy initiatives have received bipartisan support because they've created hundreds of thousands of jobs and promoted business interests, such as tax breaks, Harrison said."It's really hard to talk about climate change too much," she said. "But you can talk about jobs, and that's what we've done."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider3 hr. 59 min. ago

Evergrande Rocked By Report China "Making Preparations For Its Demise", Conflicting With Earlier News

Evergrande Rocked By Report China "Making Preparations For Its Demise", Conflicting With Earlier News It has been a rollercoaster session for Evergrande this morning. It started off optimistically enough, with Evergrande stock - which hit an all time low earlier this week in Hong Kong trading - soaring as much as 30% on furious short covering in early trading following news that the company would make an interest payment on local bonds... ... even though the big question for today was whether foreign creditors, who are also owed an $83.5 million interest payment Thursday, would get their money. In a few hours we will learn the fate of Evergrande's offshore bonds — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 22, 2021 Evergrande pared its gains before the close as selling shareholders took advantage of the price spike to continuing unloading shares, although the mood was decidedly more hopeful than on previous day, and pushed US equity futures sharply higher this morning. Said mood became even more euphoric just after 5am ET when Bloomberg blasted a flashing red headline for a report that China had told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default...  ... in which Bloomberg reported that according to "a person familiar with the matter", financial regulators in Beijing "issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds." The report added that "in a recent meeting with Evergrande representatives, regulators said the company should communicate proactively with bondholders to avoid a default but didn’t give more specific guidance." And while even Bloomberg conceded that the regulatory guidance "offers few clues about what an Evergrande endgame might look like, it does suggest China’s government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer that might roil financial markets and drag down economic growth." In other words, even more good news, with Beijing explicitly demanding that Evergrande should make foreign creditors whole and the implication being that an Evergrande collapse may be avoided. Or so the market though, until exactly one hour later when in a separate flashing red headline... .. Bloomberg informed the world of a story published away in the WSJ, which delivered just the opposite news, namely that "China Makes Preparations for Evergrande’s Demise" and that "authorities are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of China Evergrande Group." The report, which also cited anonymous "officials familiar with the discussions" who may or may not have major financial exposure to Evergrande - which we assume are different anonymous sources from the ones Bloomberg used - signaled "a reluctance to bail out the debt-saddled property developer while bracing for any economic and social fallout from the company’s travails." The WSJ then notes that "officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” but it also gives the suggestion that a nationalization of Evergrande is on the table, quoting those same officials as "saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." They said that local governments have been tasked with preventing unrest and mitigating the ripple effect on home buyers and the broader economy, for example by limiting job losses—scenarios that have grown in likelihood as Evergrande’s situation has worsened. The report also notes that local governments have been ordered to "assemble groups of accountants and legal experts to examine the finances around Evergrande’s operations in their respective regions, talk to local state-owned and private property developers to prepare to take over local real-estate projects and set up law-enforcement teams to monitor public anger and so-called “mass incidents,” a euphemism for protests, according to the people." In other words, just as we explained in "How Evergrande Became Too Big To Fail And Why Beijing Will Have To Bail It Out", Beijing will be dragged in -kicking and screaming - with a bailout of Evergrande one way or another, in order to prevent Beijing's biggest nightmare - mass social unrest. That said, a nationalization scenario does not answer today's $640 billion question: will Evergrande's offshore bondholders be made whole, or will the upcoming nationalization  be part of a broader balance sheet restructuring. What we do know is that as of 645am ET this morning, Bloomberg also reported that two holders of a China Evergrande Group dollar bond with a coupon due later Thursday "said they hadn’t received payment as of 5pm Hong Kong time" with Bloomberg adding that "there was no immediate reply from Evergrande to questions about the interest payment."  In short, total chaos continues, market reaction notwithstanding, and we expect it will get far more confusing from here as Chinese "sources" use reputable US mainstream media sources to not only convey what is going on but to allow themselves (and their conflicts of interest) an exit mechanism. After all, it's not as if anyone will prosecute them for insider trading. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 07:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge5 hr. 59 min. ago

The UK"s Green Gilt Is Marketing Puff & A Pointless Distraction

The UK's Green Gilt Is Marketing Puff & A Pointless Distraction Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com, “Every decent con man knows a simple truth is more powerful than an elaborate lie..” he UK attracted a record £137 bln order book for its £10 bln Green Gilt. But what does the Green Gilt achieve? Its marketing puff. It may disguise how ill-considered and ultimately self-defeating the Government’s rush to looking green has been. No matter how well intentioned a Green Gilt is – its style over substance, papering over the cracks in a confused and contradictory long-term climate-change mitigation strategy.   It fills my heart with joy and makes me proud to be British that the UK Government just received £137 billion of orders for its debut Green Bond – a record historical amount for any UK bond or Green Bond. (US Readers… disinterested sarcasm alert.) Investors were apparently tumbling over themselves to place orders, but I can’t say many will be surprised or disappointed when they got less than 7% of their order. The £10 bln Green Gilt due in 2033 (12 year) will pay a 0.875% and was priced to yield 0.8721%… which is a bit more than the comparable 11year bond was paying at the time…. The proceeds of the new Green Gilt will specifically be earmarked to support green projects including zero-emission transport and offshore wind projects. I don’t quite understand how the spending programme will actually work. I was taught Government funding could not be “hypothecated” (allocated against a specific project or asset) because that would result in political bargaining against good and bad projects, akin to US Pork Barrelling where project money is spent to buy votes. I guess the government must have a very clever super-computer allocating the nice new green coloured pixelated money into a good digital pot that only green civil servants can open to save the planet, while nasty normal money raised from unclean gilts – to fund stuff like building nuclear submarines to sell to Australia to defend Australia’s export chains to China from China – go into a more general dirty digital wallet? (US Readers – mild sarcasm alert.) It would be churlish of me to suggest the only meaningful thing the £10 bln Gilt issue actually does… is reduce the remaining amount of Gilts the UK’s Debt Management Office has to fund this year by about…. let me see if I can work it out… about £10 bln. (Oh, less the marketing and placement fees the govt paid to the banks who lead the deal after persuading Chancellor Rishi Sunak that it would be a brilliant idea for the UK to issue Green Gilts.) It’s reckoned the “greenium” (the premium) the Green Gilt achieved in terms of a lower yield was about 2.5 pence in every hundred pounds – 2.5 basis points. This translates to a saving of around $28 mm pounds in interest rate costs through the life of the bond. Effectively, doing a Green Bond means we got 47 minutes of UK government spending for free! Fantastic…. (Barf…) Oh, and Alok Sharma will be terribly pleased. He is chairing COP26 in November, and will be able to smile and point out how the UK is saving the planet by issuing Green Bonds, and that our green bond is bigger and juicer than Italy’s Green Bond…. I would have been much more impressed if Richy-Rich Sunak had stood up and made honest pledges about how well-considered and properly connected government spending on climate mitigation is a critical objective across all government spending programmes. If he’s as smart as folk seem to think, he’d have been explaining to us that difficult decisions on what can be done immediately, tomorrow and long-term need to be taken. Some of these could look counter-intuitive at first – like a greater reliance on Gas for the next 30-years as the nation’s power infrastructure is re-invented for a carbon neutral age. Such an honest approach would have been way better way than gesture politics like a Green Gilt. Regular readers will be aware Green Bonds impress me slightly less than a raindrop on a rainy day. They are marketing chuff. Some evil banker came up with the idea and persuaded issuers that investors were just desperate to buy anything labelled green, while persuading these same institutional fund managers that their investors were equally desperate to invest in green funds. And thus was spawned the market… (The reality now is retail investors and small savers are faced with a growing plethora of notionally green, but lower yielding funds.) The madness is further illustrated by the number funds now adopting “do-goodyism”. Recently a large fund active in commodities turned down one of my alternative asset ideas on the basis its “too oily for us these days”. They said they’d rather go buy wind-farms because that’s what their investors want. I pointed out that since everyone now wants to own wind-farms to show-off how green they are, the minimal yields on windmills no longer reflect a sensible risk-return, while anything oil-related (even though its effectively carbon-neutral) offers a superb return and are fully climate mitigated! The reality – as any good bond fund manager knows – is green investments depend not on what the label says, but what the money is actually doing and how it is governed and managed. When it comes to the UK’s ability to manage and govern its green spending… Lord preserve us. The way in which the UK has rushed into Green spending and Climate Change mitigation has been about as joined up as a full stop on a blank page. Let’s take the current energy crisis where the UK has “sagely” reduced our gas storage reserves to 1% of yearly need. 3 cold winter days and the UK could run out of power. “Not a problem” says Government – “we can buy it from Yoorp”. No. You can’t. Yoorp is short of gas, and Russia will keep it that way. Ah, retorts the energy minister; “we have lots of windfarms and solar power”… yes, but when there is no wind, which happens when the UK is at the centre of a blocking high sucking in the coldest polar winds from Artic Siberia, windfarms don’t work. Oh, and neither does solar when the day is 8 hours long and its cloudy. (Don’t get me started on offshore wind: looks brilliant on the plans, the due diligence data room and financial projections till you discover trying to replace a broken or cracked turbine blade offshore is massively difficult in a storm, and that booking a boat to do the work from makes it economic to leave it broken till such a time as more boats become available – like next summer, or the summer after that… An engineer could have told you that, but engineers are too clever to work in fund management.) Of course, the UK does have utterly reliable and predictable alternative clean energy resources. The oceans around us produce some of the strongest tides on the planet. They are utterly regular – around the coast there is always tidal energy surging untamed around us. Yet, trying to secure investment for tidal energy projects is a nightmare. Planners aren’t interested in climate mitigation – only on what it might do to the local lug-worm population. Investors aren’t interested – they need their green investments today, so buy wind, no matter how expensive it is. Today, tidal power is between 3-5 times more expensive than wind energy. That will change as more project are tested and succeed – but that will take time and money.. which neither private funders or government show much interest in… In their rush to look green, sound green and be seen doing green they are spending on the immediate but less optimal projects like less-efficient-than-promised wind and socially-dirty lithium rather than building a long-term base in reliable renewables include tide and nuclear, encouraging cleaner energy storage systems (better batteries made from less toxic and socially destructive elements), and missing the opportunity to hydrogenise the economy! But none of that matters, because today The Chancellor will be celebrating a record UK Green Gilt issue, and the investment banks behind it will be counting the fees.. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 05:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge6 hr. 43 min. ago

UK Strikes Emergency Deal With CO2 Producer To Restart Operations Amid Shortage

UK Strikes Emergency Deal With CO2 Producer To Restart Operations Amid Shortage US company CF industries will restart carbon dioxide (CO2) production this week at one of its two shuttered UK plants after the government offered financial support. CF closed both plants last week after soaring natural gas prices made it uneconomical to produce CO2, a byproduct of fertilizer that is derived from natural gas.  According to FT, CF's ammonia plant at Billingham will "immediately restart operations" after the government signed an "exceptional short-term arrangement" with the company.  "The government will provide limited financial support for CF Fertilisers' operating costs for three weeks while the CO2 market adapts to global gas prices," the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said on Tuesday. Sources told FT, financial support could be upwards of £20 million.  British Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the short-term financial agreement with CF will last for several weeks to increase the production of CO2 for critical industries. "This agreement will ensure the many critical industries that rely on a stable supply of CO2 have the resources they require to avoid disruption," Kwarteng said. George Eustice, environment secretary, said with one plant coming back online, it would be enough to divert new CO2 supplies to industries that need it the most, such as the meat industry, food packaging industry, hospitals, and nuclear power plants, among others.  The closure of CF's Billingham and Ince plants is about 45% of the country's commercial production of CO2. The government warned with limited supplies. Companies could pay upwards of 500% more for the CO2. This will make the production or handling of products even more expensive for companies that will either eat costs and experience margin compression or pass the costs on to consumers.  COMMODITY INFLATION: UK government flags massive jump in industrial CO2 prices. “The food industry knows that there’s going to be a sharp rise in the cost of CO2 […] from £200 a ton, eventually closer to £1,000," Environment Secretary George Eustice said pic.twitter.com/B36nO1KQ21 — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 22, 2021 With soaring natural gas prices, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said earlier this week that his government would do everything in its power to prevent an energy crisis from severely disrupting the economy.  There's also been destabilization in energy markets where smaller power companies are folding left and right as a bankruptcy wave appears to have begun.  The disruptive nature of soaring natural gas prices is rippling through the UK economy and may get worse ahead of winter. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 02:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge8 hr. 31 min. ago

Car Rentals Explain What’s Happening In Our Economy

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing how car rentals explain the 2021 economy; how accounting giants craft favorable tax rules from inside government; revolt of the delivery workers. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How Car Rentals Explain The 2021 Economy 1) I think what’s happening in the car rental sector is a […] Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing how car rentals explain the 2021 economy; how accounting giants craft favorable tax rules from inside government; revolt of the delivery workers. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How Car Rentals Explain The 2021 Economy 1) I think what's happening in the car rental sector is a representative case study for what's happening in our economy – extreme dislocations during and in the first phase of the emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a slow return toward normalcy – which bodes well for the future: How Car Rentals Explain the 2021 Economy. Excerpt: Few markets better crystallize the topsy-turvy nature of the American economy during the pandemic than the rental car business. The industry shows how economic decisions made in 2020 keep having serious implications in 2021. While most other industries have experienced less severe swings, the same basic dynamics apply. These dynamics explain why inflation and product shortages spiked earlier in the year – and why they are starting to abate but are not yet close to prepandemic norms. How Accounting Giants Craft Favorable Tax Rules From Inside Government 2) Kudos to the New York Times for exposing this outrageous revolving door that screws all of us: How Accounting Giants Craft Favorable Tax Rules From Inside Government. Excerpt: The largest U.S. accounting firms have perfected a remarkably effective behind-the-scenes system to promote their interests in Washington. Their tax lawyers take senior jobs at the Treasury Department, where they write policies that are frequently favorable to their former corporate clients, often with the expectation that they will soon return to their old employers. The firms welcome them back with loftier titles and higher pay, according to public records reviewed by the New York Times and interviews with current and former government and industry officials. From their government posts, many of the industry veterans approved loopholes long exploited by their former firms, gave tax breaks to former clients and rolled back efforts to rein in tax shelters – with enormous impact. Revolt Of The Delivery Workers 3) Talk about the dark underbelly of capitalism... I wasn't surprised to hear that being a delivery person was a tough job, but hadn't realized just how horrific it is: Revolt of the Delivery Workers. The next time you order from Uber Eats, DoorDash, or Grubhub-Seamless, be sure to tip generously! Excerpt: Even before the thefts started, the city's 65,000 delivery workers had tolerated so much: the fluctuating pay, the lengthening routes, the relentless time pressure enforced by mercurial software, the deadly carelessness of drivers, the pouring rain and brutal heat, and the indignity of pissing behind a dumpster because the restaurant that depends on you refuses to let you use its restroom. And every day there were the trivially small items people ordered and the paltry tips they gave – all while calling you a hero and avoiding eye contact. Cesar [Solano] recently biked from 77th on the Upper East Side 18 blocks south and over the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge, then up through Long Island City and over another bridge to Roosevelt Island, all to deliver a single slice of cake for no tip at all. And now he had to worry about losing his bike, purchased with savings on his birthday. Best regards, Whitney P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 10:28 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk12 hr. 59 min. ago

Sen. Jon Tester expressed frustration about the current "f---ing dance" around raising the debt ceiling to avoiding a government shutdown

If Congress doesn't act in time to avert the federal default, the financial consequences could send the nation into another recession. Sen. Jon Tester Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images Senate Democrats are struggling to hold the line on raising the debt ceiling while avoiding a government shutdown. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana told Politico the fight between Democrats and Republicans is "a ridiculous exercise." "We always do this fucking dance," he told the outlet. See more stories on Insider's business page. Senate Democrats are growing increasingly frustrated as they try to pressure Republicans into accepting a debt ceiling increase that GOP leaders have forcefully rejected, all while avoiding the political catastrophe of a possible government shutdown next week, according to Politico.Ane one Democrat, in particular, isn't mincing words over the stalemate."We always do this fucking dance," Sen. Jon Tester, a third-generation farmer from Montana, told Politico. "I don't know if people are going to put their sane minds on and do what needs to be done, or shut it down. This is just a ridiculous exercise ... I can't even compare it to anything I do on the farm that's this stupid."Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cemented his refusal to renew the nation's ability to pay its bills on Wednesday, warning Democrats not to "play Russian roulette" with the economy. But even though the House passed a bill on Tuesday night that included both government funding and a debt-ceiling suspension, the legislation is likely to be torpedoed in the Senate, where McConnell has said Republicans will not support it. If Congress doesn't act in time to avert the federal default, the financial consequences could send the nation into another recession.So, while Democrats are eager to keep up their public pressure on Republicans to accept their proposal, in private, the politicians are willing to do whatever it takes to avoid a shutdown. According to Politico, doing so would almost certainly require Democrats to drop a borrowing limit increase from their funding package.Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona told the outlet that his party "can't allow the government to shut down." Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia echoed his sentiments. And Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland suggested other alternatives to raising the debt ceiling and securing the spending bill."I don't know which strategy they will use next," Cardin told Politico. "But I know there are other strategies, if this doesn't work."But time is running out. Democratic sources told the outlet that the Senate is likely to vote on the House-passed funding bill on Monday, where it will almost certainly fail. Just four days later, on October 1, the government is set to shut down. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider12 hr. 59 min. ago

Escobar: Eurasia Takes Shape, Part 1 - How The SCO Just Flipped The World Order

Escobar: Eurasia Takes Shape, Part 1 - How The SCO Just Flipped The World Order Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle, As a rudderless West watched on, the 20th anniversary meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was laser-focused on two key deliverables: shaping up Afghanistan and kicking off a full-spectrum Eurasian integration. The two defining moments of the historic 20th anniversary Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan had to come from the keynote speeches of – who else – the leaders of the Russia-China strategic partnership. Xi Jinping: “Today we will launch procedures to admit Iran as a full member of the SCO.” Vladimir Putin: “I would like to highlight the Memorandum of Understanding that was signed today between the SCO Secretariat and the Eurasian Economic Commission. It is clearly designed to further Russia’s idea of establishing a Greater Eurasia Partnership covering the SCO, the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI).” In short, over the weekend, Iran was enshrined in its rightful, prime Eurasian role, and all Eurasian integration paths converged toward a new global geopolitical – and geoeconomic – paradigm, with a sonic boom bound to echo for the rest of the century. That was the killer one-two punch immediately following the Atlantic alliance’s ignominious imperial retreat from Afghanistan. Right as the Taliban took control of Kabul on August 15, the redoubtable Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, told his Iranian colleague Admiral Ali Shamkhani that “the Islamic Republic will become a full member of the SCO.” Dushanbe revealed itself as the ultimate diplomatic crossover. President Xi firmly rejected any “condescending lecturing” and emphasized development paths and governance models compatible with national conditions. Just like Putin, he stressed the complementary focus of BRI and the EAEU, and in fact summarized a true multilateralist Manifesto for the Global South. Right on point, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan noted that the SCO should advance “the development of a regional macro-economy.” This is reflected in the SCO’s drive to start using local currencies for trade, bypassing the US dollar. With Iran's arrival, the SCO member-states now number nine, and they're focused on fixing Afghanistan and consolidating Eurasia. Watch that quadrilateral Dushanbe was not just a bed of roses. Tajikistan’s Emomali Rahmon, a staunch, secular Muslim and former member of the Communist Party of the USSR – in power for no less than 29 years, reelected for the 5th time in 2020 with 90 percent of the vote – right off the bat denounced the “medieval sharia” of Taliban 2.0 and said they had already “abandoned their previous promise to form an inclusive  government.” Rahmon, who has never been caught smiling on camera, was already in power when the Taliban conquered Kabul in 1996. He was bound to publicly support his Tajik cousins against the “expansion of extremist ideology” in Afghanistan – which in fact worries all SCO member-states when it comes to smashing dodgy jihadi outfits of the ISIS-K mold . The meat of the matter in Dushanbe was in the bilaterals – and one quadrilateral. Take the bilateral between Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese FM Wang Yi. Jaishankar said that China should not view “its relations with India through the lens of a third country,” and took pains to stress that India “does not subscribe to any clash of civilizations theory.” That was quite a tough sell considering that the first in-person Quad summit takes place this week in Washington, DC, hosted by that “third country” which is now knee deep in clash-of-civilizations mode against China. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was on a bilateral roll, meeting the presidents of Iran, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The official Pakistani diplomatic position is that Afghanistan should not be abandoned, but engaged. That position added nuance to what Russian Special Presidential Envoy for SCO Affairs Bakhtiyer Khakimov had explained about Kabul’s absence at the SCO table: “At this stage, all member states have an understanding that there are no reasons for an invitation until there is a legitimate, generally recognized government in Afghanistan.” And that, arguably, leads us to the key SCO meeting: a quadrilateral with the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi affirmed: “We are monitoring whether all the groups are included in the government or not.” The heart of the matter is that, from now on, Islamabad coordinates the SCO strategy on Afghanistan, and will broker Taliban negotiations with senior Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara leaders. This will eventually lead the way towards an inclusive government regionally recognized by SCO member-nations. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was warmly received by all – especially after his forceful keynote speech, an Axis of Resistance classic. His bilateral with Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko revolved around a discussion on “sanctions confrontation.” According to Lukashenko: “If the sanctions did any harm to Belarus, Iran, other countries, it was only because we ourselves are to blame for this. We were not always negotiable, we did not always find the path we had to take under the pressure of sanctions.” Considering Tehran is fully briefed on Islamabad’s SCO role in terms of Afghanistan, there will be no need to deploy the Fatemiyoun brigade – informally known as the Afghan Hezbollah – to defend the Hazaras. Fatemiyoun was formed in 2012 and was instrumental in Syria in the fight against Daesh, especially in Palmyra. But if ISIS-K does not go away, that’s a completely different story. Particular important for SCO members Iran and India will be the future of Chabahar port. That remains India’s crypto-Silk Road gambit to connect it to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The geoeconomic success of Chabahar more than ever depends on a stable Afghanistan – and this is where Tehran’s interests fully converge with Russia-China’s SCO drive. What the 2021 SCO Dushanbe Declaration spelled out about Afghanistan is quite revealing: 1. Afghanistan should be an independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs. 2. It is critical to have an inclusive government in Afghanistan, with representatives from all ethnic, religious and political groups of Afghan society. 3. SCO member states, emphasizing the significance of the many years of hospitality and effective assistance provided by regional and neighboring countries to Afghan refugees, consider it important for the international community to make active efforts to facilitate their dignified, safe and sustainable return to their homeland. As much as it may sound like an impossible dream, this is the unified message of Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and the Central Asian “stans.” One hopes that Pakistani PM Imran Khan is up to the task and ready for his SCO close-up. That troubled Western peninsula The New Silk Roads were officially launched eight years ago by Xi Jinping, first in Astana – now Nur-Sultan – and then in Jakarta. This is how I reported it at the time. The announcement came close to a SCO summit – then in Bishkek. The SCO, widely dismissed in Washington and Brussels as a mere talk shop, was already surpassing its original mandate of fighting the “three evil forces” – terrorism, separatism and extremism – and encompassing politics and geoeconomics. In 2013, there was a Xi-Putin-Rouhani trilateral. Beijing expressed full support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear program (remember, this was two years before the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the JCPOA). Despite many experts dismissing it at the time, there was indeed a common China-Russia-Iran front on Syria (Axis of Resistance in action). Xinjiang was being promoted as the key hub for the Eurasian Land Bridge. Pipelineistan was at the heart of the Chinese strategy – from Kazakhstan oil to Turkmenistan gas. Some people may even remember when Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, was waxing lyrical about an American-propelled New Silk Road. Now compare it to Xi’s Multilateralism Manifesto in Dushanbe eight years later, reminiscing on how the SCO “has proved to be an excellent example of multilateralism in the 21stcentury,” and “has played an important role in enhancing the voice of developing countries.” The strategic importance of this SCO summit taking place right after the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok cannot be overstated enough. The EEF focuses of course on the Russian Far East – and essentially advances interconnectivity between Russia and Asia. It is an absolutely key hub of Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership. A cornucopia of deals is on the horizon – expanding from the Far East to the Arctic and the development of the Northern Sea Route, and involving everything from precious metals and green energy to digital sovereignty flowing through logistics corridors between Asia and Europe via Russia. As Putin hinted in his keynote speech, this is what the Greater Eurasia Partnership is all about: the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), BRI, India’s initiative, ASEAN, and now the SCO, developing in a harmonized network, crucially operated by “sovereign decision-making centers.” So if the BRI proposes a very Taoist “community of shared future for human kind,” the Russian project, conceptually, proposes a dialogue of civilizations (already evoked by the Khatami years in Iran) and sovereign economic-political projects. They are, indeed, complementary. Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal, is among the very few top scholars who are analyzing this process in depth. His latest book remarkably tells the whole story in its title:  Europe as the Western Peninsula of Greater Eurasia: Geoeconomic Regions in a Multipolar World. It’s not clear whether Eurocrats in Brussels – slaves of Atlanticism and incapable of grasping the potential of Greater Eurasia – will end up exercising real strategic autonomy. Diesen evokes in detail the parallels between the Russian and the Chinese strategies. He notes how China “is pursuing a three-pillared geoeconomic initiative by developing technological leadership via its China 2025 plan, new transportation corridors via its trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, and establishing new financial instruments such as banks, payment systems and the internationalization of the yuan. Russia is similarly pursuing technological sovereignty, both in the digital sphere and beyond, as well as new transportation corridors such as the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic, and, primarily, new financial instruments.” The whole Global South, stunned by the accelerated collapse of the western Empire and its unilateral “rules-based order," now seems to be ready to embrace the new groove, fully displayed in Dushanbe: a multipolar Greater Eurasia of sovereign equals. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 23:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge13 hr. 43 min. ago

Dan Celia: Weekly Market Trends, China’s Bankruptcy, and the Afghanistan Crisis

PHILADELPHIA – Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia discussed this week’s market trends, the potential issue with China’s bankruptcy, and the situation with Afghanistan and American borders. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Weekly Market Trends Celia stated, “Tuesday was certainly an interesting day in the markets. At one point, the Dell […] PHILADELPHIA – Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia discussed this week’s market trends, the potential issue with China’s bankruptcy, and the situation with Afghanistan and American borders. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Weekly Market Trends Celia stated, “Tuesday was certainly an interesting day in the markets. At one point, the Dell was up over 300 points. The S&P was up as well. They both finished a negative territory, but not by a lot. Once again, the NASDAQ did eke out a bit of a gain, almost a quarter of 1%, to finish in the green, as did the Russell 2000, which is the index of small caps. China's Bankruptcy “Everybody is talking about what's going on in China. All the analysts yesterday were claiming it was merely a problem with China and the bankruptcy of their big real estate trust. The markets are at a point where they're looking for every excuse possible for down days without saying that the total dysfunction in Washington is only going to get worse, which will only make the economy worse, followed by making the markets worse.” The Afghanistan Crisis Celia further commented, “Millions of people are crossing the border again, which is impacting markets and overall cost to the government. The situation with Afghanistan is very negative positioning for the United States. People are watching the U.S. continue to get weaker and weaker. Consumer sentiment is down, and FedEx numbers were not good. They talked about their wage inflation, not to mention a lack of workers. There are many excuses that we are likely to continue to hear, but the one thing we know we won't hear is anything about the ineptitude of this administration.” Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 9:50 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk15 hr. 31 min. ago

How Gavin Newsom beat back the California gubernatorial recall effort

Newsom last week survived the biggest test of his political career, but with nearly all of the votes in, the results reveal some intriguing dynamics. Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to the press while visiting Melrose Leadership Academy in Oakland, Calif., on September 15, 2021. Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California last Tuesday survived the biggest test of his leadership by rallying voters against a gubernatorial recall election fueled by grievances over COVID-19 restrictions, housing affordability, uneven economic opportunities, and homelessness.While the eventual recall was a blowout in the governor's favor, there were underlying issues that seriously threatened his standing earlier in the summer - the lack of urgency among Democratic voters, minimal engagement with the state's growing Latino population, and the conservative buzz surrounding radio talk show host and first-time political candidate Larry Elder, who was able to channel the frustrations of millions of state residents.As California continues to count its remaining ballots, a fuller picture is emerging of Newsom's win.With 92% of the vote in, voters rejected the recall effort by a 63% to 37% margin, nearly identical to the 2018 gubernatorial election results, when Newsom defeated Republican businessman John Cox by a 62% to 38% spread.But the huge victory also exposed Newsom's vulnerability in not connecting with more voters on a personal level.Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at the University of Southern California and the University of California-Berkeley, pointed out that Newsom was able to win despite his fairly average standing among many Democratic voters."The final results obscure the fact that he's never been particularly well-loved, even by the base of his own party," he said.This account, based on interviews with California political observers and the recount data, focuses on the governor's broad victory and what it says about the future of Golden State politics. President Joe Biden speaks during a rally in support of California Gov. Gavin Newsom at Long Beach City College on September 13, 2021. David McNew/Getty Images Newsom overcame complacency and turned out Democrats California has become such a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level that now-President Joe Biden's win over former President Donald Trump (63.5% to 34%) last fall was a foregone conclusion.While Biden received over 11 million votes - a record for a presidential candidate in the state - Trump received over 6 million votes, which was the highest number of votes for any Republican candidate in state history.Democrats currently make up 46.5% of all registered voters in California, while Republicans make up 24% and independents comprise of 23%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California - which by the numbers would indicate a huge advantage for Newsom.However, voter turnout is key, and tepid party support, combined with Republican enthusiasm about Elder's candidacy, threatened to derail Newsom, especially as he struggled to connect with some of the very same voters who sent him to the Governor's Mansion nearly three years ago.In a Berkeley-IGS survey that was released in July, registered Democrats, by a nearly 30% margin, were less likely than Republicans to demonstrate a high level of engagement in the recall election - one of many polls that caused consternation among Democratic leaders.Conservatives, incensed by what they felt were heavy-handed COVID-19 restrictions that hurt small businesses and stifled the economy, were animated over potentially recalling Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor and lieutenant governor. The July Berkeley survey showed that 33% of the voters who were likely to vote in the recall would be Republicans - a troubling sign for the governor.After recalibrating and partaking in a rigorous campaign schedule, including rallies with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Newsom was able to to change the dynamics of the race by emphasizing Elder's opposition to key issues including abortion rights and COVID-19 vaccine mandates. California gubernatorial recall election candidate Larry Elder speaks at his election night party in Costa Mesa on September 14, 2021. ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images Larry Elder was not an appealing candidate to non-RepublicansIn the previous California gubernatorial recall election in 2003, then-Democratic Gov. Gray Davis was booted from office and replaced with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.Schwarzenegger - a Hollywood leading man famous for action movies like "The Terminator" represented a moderate wing of Republicanism that was still influential in the state at the time - won over his party and peeled off independents and even some Democrats. This year, Democrats overwhelmingly opposed against the recall on the first ballot question and largely abandoned picking another candidate to become governor if the recall was successful.Elder, a fierce advocate of small government who opposed the minimum wage, dismissed gender wage gaps, balked at gun-control measures, and supported charter schools and school choice, was unable to garner much support beyond the Republican base, which comprised of roughly 25% of the electorate in the recall election.According to exit polling conducted for CNN and other outlets by Edison Research, 94% of Democrats opposed the recall, while 89% of Republicans supported it, with independents narrowly rejecting the effort by a 52%-48% margin.While Elder currently sits at 47.8% of the vote, having earned over 3.1 million votes on the ballot question designating a gubernatorial successor, the rejection of the recall effort at the top of the ballot kept Newsom in office.Schnur told Insider that Elder's positions allowed Newsom to effectively use Trumpism as a political foil."Newsom was originally having some trouble framing this as a campaign against Donald Trump, primarily because Trump wasn't on the ballot or in the White House," he said. "Elder gave Newsom a way of framing the anti-Trump argument in the present tense. Instead of talking about the former president, he was able to talk about something that voters were facing now, and that helped him immeasurably." A sign at the Modoc National Forest. Bernard Friel/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images California has 'shades of blue in many communities of red'The modern image of California is largely shaped by its glittering Los Angeles skyline and the tech corridors of the San Francisco Bay Area, but the state is much more conservative in its interior stretches, where the election results of many counties largely mirrored the 2020 election.In rural northern California, counties like Lassen (84%), Modoc (78%), Tehama (69%), and Shasta (67%), voted overwhelmingly in favor of the recall - and subsequently these counties strongly backed Elder as their top choice in the second ballot question.While Elder's strong conservative views, including his opposition to broad COVID-19 restrictions, appealed to many in these counties, as well as a significant number of residents in the state's exurban communities, it wasn't enough to appeal to a wider audience - which has been the dilemma of the California GOP for years.The state party, which launched the careers of former Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, has not won a gubernatorial race since Schwarzenegger's reelection bid in 2006.Mindy Romero, the founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, told Insider that while the state's political ideology is more multifaceted than its reputation suggests, the GOP in recent years has continued to elevate candidates that lack appeal on a statewide level."The problem for the Republican Party is that politics is local," she said. "I actually say that we're not deep blue. I say that we're shades of blue in many communities of red. In those red communities, we have a lot of elected officials, including members of Congress, who are Republicans. Some of the messaging that they use that works in those communities is antithetical to many Democrats. But at a local level, the messaging works and helps them politically."She added: "It's hard for Republicans to make ground, because locally, they're going to put forth candidates that are going to be more to the right." Gov. Gavin Newsom greets volunteers who were working the phone banks to help campaign against the gubernatorial recall at Hecho en Mexico restaurant in East Los Angeles on August 14, 2021. Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de León, California state Sen. Maria Elena Durazo, California Assemblyman Miguel Santiago, and other Latino dignitaries were on hand to support the governor. Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Latino voters, a growing slice of the electorate, backed NewsomLatino residents now make up 39% of California's population and are the largest ethnic group in the state - according to the exit polling conducted by Edison Research, they made up 24% of the electorate in the recall election.For much of the summer, Democrats fretted that they weren't doing enough to appeal to this critical slice of the electorate, especially as Elder campaigned hard for Latino, Black, and Asian votes.However, in representing nearly a quarter of the vote in the recall election, the Latino vote was key in the eventual outcome.According to the Edison exit polling, Latino voters rejected the recall effort by a 60%-40% margin.But there were signs of concern for Democrats, even with the broad victory.Newsom actually lost ground with Latinos, albeit slightly, from his 2018 gubernatorial victory, when he carried the group with 64% of the vote, according to NBC exit polling.For Democrats, the question remains: How can the party engage with this diverse slice of the electorate in a meaningful way?Romero told Insider that both parties have a chance to improve their relationship with Latinos, but said that Democrats, who count on the group as part of their base, should have done more outreach this year."Both parties have a chance with the Latino vote because it's not monolithic," she said. "Newsom's campaign did not reach out to Latinos as it could have. There was lot of work by community organizations and by unions that it looks like helped bring out a lot of Latinos, but in terms of the party-driven work, it was either late or it didn't happen in the way that you would expect."She added: "Democrats will have to work on addressing Latino issues and having better relationships with Latino organizations, and essentially not taking the Latino vote for granted."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt19 hr. 15 min. ago

Fed Chair Powell says he"s powerless to protect the economy if Congress lets the US default on its debt

Nobody should assume the Federal Reserve can help if Congress fails to lift the debt limit ahead of a mid-October deadline, Powell said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images Nobody should assume the Fed can save the US economy if Congress fails to raise the debt limit, Jerome Powell said. If the ceiling isn't raised, the US could default on its debt and enter a self-inflicted recession. A debt-ceiling downturn is "just not something we can or should contemplate," the Fed chair said. See more stories on Insider's business page. The Federal Reserve won't come to the economy's rescue if the US defaults on its debt, central bank chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.Congress is, once again, coming dangerously close to a debt-ceiling crisis. Lawmakers have until mid-October to either raise or suspend the borrowing limit or allow the US to default on its debt. The latter outcome would freeze spending on several critical public programs, spark massive job losses, throw financial markets into chaos, and likely plunge the US into a self-inflicted recession.In other words, defaulting on government debt is "just not something we can or should contemplate," Powell told reporters in a press conference. Failure to raise the ceiling could spark "severe damage to the economy," and the ball is solely in lawmakers' hands, the Fed chair added."I think we can agree the United States shouldn't default on any of its obligations and should pay them when due," he said. "No one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure."Debt scares aren't anything new to those on Capitol Hill. The ceiling has already been suspended or lifted 57 times in the last five decades. But the 117th Congress is on track to be the first to break the threshold.Republicans have been adamant that raising the ceiling is Democrats' responsibility alone. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reiterated his opposition to the effort on Wednesday, saying Democrats shouldn't "play Russian roulette with our economy."On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are pinning the blame on Republicans' past actions. Lifting the limit only allows the government to cover its past spending. After the GOP and President Donald Trump added roughly $8 trillion in debt through tax cuts and stimulus, Republicans "are threatening not to pay the bills," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tweeted Wednesday.Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi revealed on Monday a measure that would suspend the limit through December. Yet fervent GOP opposition, a fragile Democratic majority in the Senate, and a looming deadline stand in the way of its passage.What's at stake if the US defaultsAs lawmakers barrel toward the threshold, experts have painted a dismal picture of what a US default would look like. The White House told state and local governments on Friday that failing to lift the ceiling would swiftly freeze funding for programs including Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and FEMA disaster relief. The resulting recession would prompt "economic catastrophe," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen added Monday.Outside the White House, assessments have been even bleaker. Failure to lift or suspend the ceiling would power a downturn reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, Moody's Analytics economists led by Mark Zandi said Tuesday. The US would shed nearly 6 million jobs, and the unemployment rate would leap to 9% from 5.2%.The resulting market crash would also cripple everyday Americans. Stock prices would tumble more than 30% before recovering, the team said. Losses from the selloff would total $15 trillion in household wealth, according to Moody's.Such a slump would also come as the country remains mired in a COVID-slammed economy. The Fed held its ultra-accommodative policy intact on Wednesday, leaving key supports in place as 8.4 million Americans remain unemployed. Powell hinted that a pullback could start in November, but even then, it will likely take years for Fed policy to fully return to pre-crisis norms.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt19 hr. 43 min. ago

Mitch McConnell tells Democrats not to "play Russian roulette with the economy" as the GOP plays Russian roulette with the economy

McConnell started a logjam in Congress. Now he's lecturing Democrats about fixing it, as the US barrels towards a potential default within weeks. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Congress. Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images McConnell said "Democrats shouldn't play Russian roulette" with the economy as his party refuses to help avert a default. "Step up and raise the debt ceiling and cover all that you've been engaged in all year long," he told reporters. There are no signs the debt ceiling standoff will be resolved anytime soon. See more stories on Insider's business page. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says Democrats are playing a dangerous game by not raising the debt ceiling to avoid a default on the US's bills, even though it's one he started. "My advice to this Democratic government, the president, the House and Senate: don't play Russian roulette with our economy," he said at a Wednesday press conference. "Step up and raise the debt ceiling and cover all that you've been engaged in all year long."McConnell isn't budging from his refusal to renew the nation's ability to pay its bills, known as the debt ceiling. He's vowing Senate Republicans won't lend the support needed to pass a measure aimed at averting a federal default, even as he says he doesn't want the US to do so. It may cause a financial meltdown and plunge the nation into another recession if Congress doesn't act in time."If Mitch McConnell wants to say Democrats shouldn't play Russian roulette with the economy, why is he the one that loaded the gun in the first place?" Zach Moller, economic policy director at the center-left Third Way think tank, told Insider. "He's the one that put the slug in the gun and stuck it on the table."Democrats are insisting that Republicans must cooperate in raising the nation's borrowing cap, as they did three times under the Trump administration. "This idea that Republicans are going to intentionally crater the economy to make some political point is so dangerous," Sen. Christopher Murphy of Connecticut told Insider. "We can't do anything on the debt ceiling without it being bipartisan."Democrats could lift the debt ceiling on their own using a standalone measure. But it would require an arduous, lengthy process to complete a pair of voting sessions known as vote-a-ramas - made even trickier as they'd have to approve the measure in both the House and Senate while holding a razor-thin majority.The Treasury Department is employing special measures for the US to continue paying its bills, but those will be exhausted sometime next month. The House passed a measure on Tuesday to avert both a government shutdown and debt default on Wednesday evening, but Senate Republicans led by McConnell are poised to sink it in the upper chamber. House Budget Chair John Yarmuth said Monday it could take "at least" two weeks for Democrats to lift the debt ceiling on their own. But his position shifted on Wednesday and he told reporters that his staff concluded there's not enough time to get it done."Parliamentary obstacles prevent us from altering this reconciliation bill or addressing debt ceiling through reconciliation," Yarmuth said in a statement to Insider. "The House passed legislation just last night to suspend the debt ceiling and keep the government open. The ball is now in Senator McConnell's court."He went on: "If he doesn't support this bill - or at least ensure it is not filibustered - our country will default and our government will shut down. The decision is now his."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt19 hr. 43 min. ago

Former Democratic and GOP treasury secretaries warn of potential economic disaster as McConnell digs in on refusal to raise the debt limit

"Even a short-lived default could threaten economic growth," the group wrote in a letter. McConnell isn't budging on his refusal to help Democrats. Former treasury secretaries Tim Geithner and Henry Paulson speak at the Brookings Institution in 2018. Win McNamee/Getty Images) Six former Democratic and GOP treasury secretaries are urging Congress to renew the US' ability to pay its bills. "Even a short-lived default could threaten economic growth," they wrote in a letter. McConnell is standing firm on his view that Democrats have to raise the debt ceiling on their own. See more stories on Insider's business page. A group of former Democratic and GOP treasury secretaries are urging Congress to immediately raise or suspend the limit on how much debt the US can pay back, as Republicans refuse to cooperate with Democrats and alarm mounts over the potential consequences of a federal default.In a letter sent to Congressional leaders, the group warned that failure to address the debt limit and a default could cause "serious economic and national security harm.""Even a short-lived default could threaten economic growth," they wrote. "It creates the risk of roiling markets, and of sapping economic confidence, and it would prevent Americans receiving vital services."The former treasury secretaries added that brinkmanship was "detrimental."The roster included Robert Rubin, who served in the Clinton administration; Henry Paulson, a treasury secretary during the Bush administration; W. Michael Blumenthal, who served in the Carter administration; Lawrence Summers, a Clinton-era treasury secretary; and Jacob Lew, an Obama-era treasury secretary; and Timothy Geithner, a treasury secretary during President Barack Obama's first term.The letter reflects increasing pressure on Congress to resolve the debt ceiling standoff, particularly Republicans. On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reaffirmed what he's said since July: Senate Republicans will not raise the debt limit and Democrats must do it alone."My advice to this Democratic government, the president, the House and Senate: don't play Russian roulette with our economy," he said at a Wednesday press conference. "Step up and raise the debt ceiling and cover all that you've been engaged in all year long."McConnell is urging Democrats to lift the borrowing cap on a party-line basis using reconciliation. It's the same procedure Democrats are employing to secure the passage of a $3.5 trillion social pending plan. Democrats are insisting Republicans must raise it alongside them, noting the national debt grew $8 trillion during the Trump administration. The GOP also raised it three times under President Donald Trump.Lifting the debt limit doesn't authorize new spending, it only gives the green light for the federal government to pay back what it already owes.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt20 hr. 59 min. ago