Sunday links: the folly of prediction

MarketsHow would ARK Innovation ($ARKK) done if it could have closed to new investors? ('s driving value vs. growth these days? ( Carlson, "So while the Fed has been a big player in the markets since 2008 it would be silly to assume they are the only reason for the upward trajectory of stocks." ( Bernstein, "A suboptimal portfolio you can execute is better than an optimal one you can’t." ( Batnick, "There’s too much money chasing too few deals in private markets, and I’m not sure an interest rate hike or two will change that." ( Morgan Chase ($JPM) is spending big on technology. ( LSE is proposing a special listing status for still private companies. ( more disclosure will cause companies to go public earlier. ( bansMomentum is building for banning lawmakers from buying individual stocks. ( a trading ban on Congress needs to extend to family members as well. ( much of growing wealth inequality is due to the rise of technology? ( policies matter. So does who becomes a police officer. ( gun sales lead to more gun crime. ( enrollment continues to fall. ( 2022 is different than 2020. ( economic schedule for the coming week. ( on Abnormal ReturnsTop clicks last week on the site. ( you missed in our Saturday linkfest. ( links: two years of knowledge. ( you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. ( mediaChoose your personal narrative carefully. ( to make friends with failure. ( ends. (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsJan 16th, 2022

Ben Bernanke On Inflation, ESG And President Biden

Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Monday, May 16th. Following are links to video on The Fed’s Delayed Inflation Response Was A Mistake, Says Former Chair Ben Bernanke Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke On […] Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Monday, May 16th. Following are links to video on The Fed’s Delayed Inflation Response Was A Mistake, Says Former Chair Ben Bernanke Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke On Inflation, ESG And President Biden PART I ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Welcome back to “Squawk Box.” Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is out with a new book this week. It’s titled, “21st Century Monetary Policy: Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to COVID-19.” In an exclusive TV interview, I spoke with Ben Bernanke at his home in Washington, DC. I started out by asking him about the comparison of the great inflation of the 1970s to where we are today and how he thinks about it if we’re, if he were in this seat now. BEN BERNANKE: Well there are some big differences between the 70s and today and one of course being that the inflation in the 70s lasted for more than a decade. It was much higher than we have now so it was a, it was a worse episode. But I think the most important things, first of all, that the Federal Reserve has to take the lead. Arthur Burns, who was chair of the Fed in the 70s felt that other parts of the government, you know, should take the lead on inflation. Secondly, that you have to worry a lot about credibility and inflation expectations. The Fed’s credibility was completely shattered in the 70s. Nobody believed that the Fed was going to take action against inflation. And so, when Paul Volcker did, I mean he had a lot of credibility, but it wasn’t enough and that was part of the reason why the recession which followed his tightening was so much greater. And I think the third lesson from the 70s is that political interference with Fed policy can be very dangerous. In the 70s, Arthur burns again acted more or less as a member of the Nixon administration and Nixon wanted to be reelected in 1972 and so Arthur Burns said, well, we won’t tighten monetary policy then and that led to greater inflation. We have I think today both a more independent central bank and also I’m actually pleasantly surprised if you look at Congress and the President and so on, you’re not seeing a lot of people saying the Fed should not be doing anything about this inflation. There’s a lot of support for the fact that the Fed is tightening now even though obviously we see the effects in markets, you know, we’ll see the effects in house prices, etc. So those are some ways in which the current situation I think is better because we learned a lot from the 70s. SORKIN: And does that mean that we’ve acknowledged that actually you said the Fed should lead this. Is it because there is no other tool? BERNANKE: Well, in theory, the fiscal authorities could play a role. That is, this is what modern monetary theory says, you know, that by raising taxes and cutting spending and reducing aggregate demand and so on, the fiscal authorities could play the same kind of role as the Fed which basically reduce demand and get inflation down. Unfortunately, the Fed is just a lot more nimble and a lot better informed about markets and so on and it can respond quickly and it can provide guidance about its long run policy goals, etc. You know, for there are many advantages to fiscal policy, but nimbleness is not one of them. It takes a long time to come to agreement. only under very extreme circumstances does Congress really react in a powerful way so from a political economy point of view, I think the Fed really is the only game in town. SORKIN: I asked Ben Bernanke whether he thinks that with transparency and the forward guidance that effectively comes with that, if it locks in the Fed, for example, the most recent case of the 50 basis point raise, rate hike. BERNANKE: There’s no strategy that doesn’t have occasional downsides. I think the clearest case in most recent period is that the Fed said they weren’t gonna begin to raise rates until certain criteria were met, first of all, secondly, until they had QE had gotten to a certain point and they were going to taper first, etc, etc. So the forward guidance, I think, overall, on the margin slowed the response of the fed to the inflation problem last year to some extent. SORKIN: So does that mean it was a mistake? BERNANKE: Well, they were they had different. So this is a complicated question. The question is, why did they delay that? I think that why did they delay their response. I think, in retrospect, yes, it was a mistake, and I think they agree it was a mistake. There were a number of reasons for it. One of the reasons was that they wanted not to shock the market. They wanted to avoid, Jay Powell was on my board during the taper tantrum in 2013 which was a very unpleasant experience, he wanted to avoid that kind of thing by giving people as much warning as possible. And so that gradualism was one of several reasons why the Fed didn’t respond more quickly to the inflationary pressure in the middle of 2021. There were other reasons as well. SORKIN: What do you think? BERNANKE: Well, one of them was that in early 2021 after the American Rescue Plan was passed and this was something like $2.8 trillion dollars of new federal spending between the American Rescue Plan and the December program, you know, the Fed could have responded to that point but they looked around and said, well, look, there’s still a lot of slack because the unemployment rate was still close to 6%. The number of people working was still well below where it was before the pandemic. And so they they said that, well, there’s still a lot of slack in the economy, we should we should let this fiscal program do its job and bring the economy back to full employment. What we’ve learned since then is that because of the pandemic with a lot of people staying home, that the unemployment rate, for example, the number of jobs may not be a really good indicator of whether the labor market is hot or not. And so, they’re looking now at things like the number of job vacancies which show that employers are having a terrible time finding enough workers and that the labor market is is distorted. The other issue that they were looking at was the supply chain issue. You know, the pandemic has snarled supply chains around the world that has helped drive up prices. The Fed believed in the middle of 2021 that these factors would likely solve themselves over time that in other words that supply shocks were quote “transitory” and so that they didn’t need to respond to the early stages of inflation because it was going to go away by itself. That proved wrong. So they were they were a couple of, of issues I think that are related primarily to the pandemic itself and the way that it scrambled the usual indicators that made it harder for the Fed to read the economy. SORKIN: We did get into a question about how he read the economy at that time. BERNANKE: I wasn’t particularly on board with the view that the number of jobs was the right indicator of how tight labor market was because I knew first of all that immigration was low. I knew a lot of people were staying home not because they couldn’t find a job but because with the pandemic and Delta variants and so on raging, they weren’t looking for a job. But I I did believe that some of the inflation was coming from factors created by the pandemic including the supply chain problems through reduction in labor supply. The fact that people were shifting their demand away from services like restaurants towards durable goods like cars, and that was putting up the prices tremendously in those durable goods. So, we’ve seen big increases in car prices, for example. So I thought, I don’t know I didn’t have a specific timeframe in mind, but I thought that over this year that those things would begin to reverse. I still think they will reverse eventually but clearly they’ve been more persistent, more problematic than we, than we, I had thought. SORKIN: And over the years former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has written a lot about inequality. I asked him about the debate over a wealth tax. BERNANKE: I’m not against taxing billionaires, but I think a better way to do it would be to raise capital gains taxes. You could, you could tax realized capital gains. I think an important thing what would be helpful would be to eliminate the provision that when you pass appreciated securities on to your heirs, the appreciation is not taxed at any time. So there are there ways to increase the tax burden on both the income and the wealth of rich people, which I think are much more, just more practical than than a straight wealth tax. And I know defenders of the wealth tax would disagree and there’s a great debate about that, but I don’t disagree with the objective but I think that you just need to find a method that will not be impossible to enforce. PART II SORKIN: Welcome back to “Squawk Box.” Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is out with a new book this week. It’s titled, “21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to COVID-19.” In an exclusive TV interview, I spoke with Ben Bernanke at his home in Washington, DC and I asked him about what he thinks of the idea that it is hard for the Fed to say it out loud that it’s just trying to reduce demand and trying to make things right. BERNANKE: Well, I think Powell can say that now because he has argued that we are beyond full employment. We’re not at full employment. We are at a point where work, where employers can’t find workers, where there’s two jobs available for every unemployed person. And so his argument is that we could cool things down a bit, raise the unemployment rate a little bit, reduce that ratio of vacancies to unemployed persons maybe to one to one let’s say without creating a lot of real hardship for workers in America so that you need for long run stability, you need to cool the economy down. SORKIN: We also talked about whether the former Fed chair thinks the Fed is going to become if it hasn’t already become politicized politicized. BERNANKE: I think at the moment that the Fed is pretty independent, and certainly nonpartisan. SORKIN: But you do write about efforts that previous administrations have made to politicize— BERNANKE: Yeah. SORKIN: The Fed and the pressures that have been felt. BERNANKE: Absolutely. And I and I think the changes really began to some extent with the first Bush but mostly with Clinton. And since Clinton until Trump, presidents have been pretty, pretty good about letting the Fed do what it thought was necessary. SORKIN: President Biden has said that inflation is his top domestic priority and has talked about higher taxes on the wealthy as a measure of something that he could do. Here’s what Bernanke thinks about President Biden or any elected official what they can do about inflation to this point. BERNANKE: It’s fairly limited. I mean, I think it’s appropriate that the Fed is taking the lead and I think the most important thing that President can do is support the Fed chair and let the Fed chair do what needs to be done even if it’s a little bit painful. There’s things in this particular case that there’s things that probably could help on the margin. I mean the thing that the White House has done to improve supply chains, for example, work to improve public health so we don’t have another pandemic and the effects of that, you know, things that make critical goods like health and education cheaper, more efficient, it’s not gonna do much for inflation, but it would be good for people who are, you know, feeling like their money is not going far enough. SORKIN: And given the price of oil today, here’s what he had to say about the ESG movement, a debate that we’ve had on this program a lot and some of the new ways that businesses have approached these types of investments. BERNANKE: The fact that people are willing to do ESG investments does suggest that they’re interested in, in helping on that side, but I think real real progress is going to take not just private actions, while we should all do what we can to reduce our carbon footprints and so on, but real progress is going to take a collective effort that would involve, you know, other tools. SORKIN: Do you think there’s real economic theory behind ESG? BERNANKE: There’s always demand for divesting, you know, unpopular stocks, let’s say in university endowments and so on and it’s fine to show your concern about about the way some country is behaving or the way some company is behaving and so on. But when you divest, you’re basically just selling the stock to somebody else who doesn’t have quite the same concerns and the effects on the issuer of the stock tend to be fairly modest. So, I’m not saying it has no effect at all, but it’s it’s a more limited approach than either community level or personal level efforts to reduce say carbon, or even better social wide effort to take strong actions to meet carbon goals. PART III SORKIN: We also talked out with Bernanke about the chances of a recession. Here’s what he had to say. BERNANKE: The more the Fed has to tighten in order to get inflation down, the bigger the chance of a recession and the more severe it will be. How much the Fed has to tighten depends in turn on what happens to these factors they can’t control like the supply chains and the commodity prices. So that prediction requires you to make a prediction not only about the Fed’s behavior but about a lot of other things the Ukraine war, etc. So it’s a very hard thing, very uncertain thing to say. I guess that I still tend to believe that some of these forces pushing up inflation like the supply chains, like the preference for durable goods or services and some of the commodity price increases gas prices and so on, that they will at least stabilize and begin to moderate sometime during this year which would mean that inflation will come down to some extent, not saying by itself, but without the Fed’s direct intervention. If that happens, the Fed would have to raise rates perhaps moderately above neutral. When they do that, they’ll slow demand. But as Jay Powell has pointed out, the economy is pretty strong. We’re not going into recession as often is the case with a troubled economy. In fact, the underlying economy as we recover from the pandemic is quite strong. We have a very strong labor market, for example, we have a strong financial system, we have strong balance sheets. So if if the inflation slows as I expect it ultimately will, although I’ve been disappointed about how slow that process is, than the Fed should not have to raise rates, you know, too far and what we would get that would be a slowing of the economy, maybe even a stall, but not a severe recession. The severe recession would only come if these other factors simply do not cooperate and in particular, the thing the thing people should watch most closely is inflation expectations. If inflation expectations as measured by breakevens in the Inflation-Protected and Securities market, as measured by surveys and so on, begin to move up in a significant way that people have lost confidence in the credibility of the Fed, the Fed will have to react much more strongly and the effects in the economy will be much more deleterious. And SORKIN: And how concerned are you about that? BERNANKE: For the moment, knock on wood. This is a big difference between today the 1970s. In the 1970s, inflation expectations were all over the place and nobody had any confidence in the Fed, that it would bring inflation back down. Today, most indicators suggests that people are still pretty confident that the Fed or maybe some combination of the Fed and the end of the pandemic will lead to more normal inflation in the future. SORKIN: And we couldn’t have a conversation without talking about Bitcoin. Take a look at this Bitcoin right now down a little under 30,000 and in Bernanke’s new book, he writes about the potential of the digital dollar. So of course, I asked him to share his point of view on cryptocurrency these days. This is what he had to say. BERNANKE: So Bitcoin and other currencies, cryptocurrencies whose whose value changes minute to minute, they’ve been successful as a speculative asset and people you’re seeing the downside of that right now. But they were intended to be a substitute for fiat money. And I think in that respect, they have not succeeded because if, if bitcoin were a substitute for fiat money, you could use Bitcoin to go buy your groceries. Nobody buys groceries with Bitcoin because it’s too expensive and too inconvenient to do that. We’re over the price of groceries, the price of celery varies radically day to day in terms of Bitcoin and so there’s no stability either in the value of Bitcoin. The main use of Bitcoin is mostly for underground economy activities and things that often things that are illegal or illicit. So I don’t think that Bitcoin is going to take over as an alternative form of money. It’ll be around as long as people are believers and they want to speculate in this but again, I don’t think it’s going to— SORKIN: And you don’t, you don’t buy into the idea of it as being a store of value or some kind of version of digital gold. BERNANKE: Well, as I said, it’s a speculative asset, but it’s, it’s one that whose underlying use value, gold has underlying use value. You can use it to fill cavities. The underlying use value of a Bitcoin is to do ransomware or something like that. So, one of the other risks that Bitcoin has is that it could at some point be subject to a lot more regulation and the anonymity is also at risk I think at some point. So, you know, investors in Bitcoin should be, should be aware of that. Updated on May 16, 2022, 11:11 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkMay 16th, 2022

Energy Prices Surge Amid Ukraine Crisis

Energy prices surged after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to send what he called “peacekeeping forces” to the two breakaway areas of Ukraine that he officially recognized on Monday. European natural gas led the gains with as much as 13% rise, helped higher by Germany halting the approval process of the controversial Nord… Energy prices surged after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to send what he called “peacekeeping forces” to the two breakaway areas of Ukraine that he officially recognized on Monday. European natural gas led the gains with as much as 13% rise, helped higher by Germany halting the approval process of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Brent oil closed in on $100 a barrel, and power and coal prices rose. Moscow’s move is a dramatic escalation in the standoff, with the U.K. responding by sanctioning five Russian banks and the European Union planning to restrict access to its financial markets. The U.S. said it plans to announce new restrictions as soon as Tuesday. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Read more: Fear Of War Grips Europe As Russia Orders Troops Into Ukraine There were no details on how many troops might go in, or when, but a conflict could threaten Russian energy supplies. The country is the biggest provider of gas to Europe, about a third of which typically travel through pipelines crossing Ukraine, and a major exporter of everything from crude oil to refined products. Sanctions could also disrupt energy flows, with any curbs to Russia’s ability to trade in foreign currency having the potential to upend commodity markets from oil and gas to metals and agriculture. “This means yet higher gas prices for longer as the market has already been very nervous for months,” said Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “Some U.S., EU sanctions are likely to follow.” Dutch gas futures, a European benchmark, were 8.4% higher at 78.63 euros a megawatt-hour by 2:26 p.m. in Amsterdam. Brent crude jumped to a high of $99.50 a barrel, before easing to $97.58. German power for next year increased as much as 6.6% and European coal rose 7.9%. Energy Crisis Energy markets have been on edge for weeks, swinging with every twist and turn in the standoff between the West and Moscow. Europe has been grappling with a gas supply crisis that’s sent prices quadrupling in the past year. The tensions have added to oil’s blistering rally that’s also been driven by output not being able to keep up with steadily rising demand. “The current move higher is a natural knee-jerk reaction on very high levels of uncertainty,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities strategy at Standard Chartered. “Base case is perhaps still a sharp spike higher and then a significant correction lower if energy sanctions prove limited” or countries release strategic oil stockpiles to curb prices. Russia has been keeping gas flows to Europe capped since the summer, having curbed sales in the spot market and failed to fill its storage sites in the European Union before the winter. Europe has avoided the worst prediction for the crisis including rolling blackouts, but the region still depends on Russia for a third of its gas needs. Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov said Tuesday that the country aims to keep gas flows uninterrupted, including LNG shipments. Gas prices also rose after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he has directed the Economy Ministry to withdraw a report on security of supply that is needed for the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to move forward. The certification process of the pipeline, which links Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine, has been on hold since the end of last year as the operator tries to comply with European Union rules as requested by the German energy regulator. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Friday that Nord Stream 2 would be part of a sanctions package if Russia invades Ukraine. Treaties The treaties Putin signed with the two self-declared republics allow Russia to both send troops and build military bases in the separatist zones, according to texts submitted to parliament for ratification. Russia plans to recognize separatists claims over the entire Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, Interfax reported, citing State Duma member Leonid Kalashnikov. Russia denies it plans to invade Ukraine. The European Union proposed an initial package of sanctions, targeting those behind the decision, as well as banks that finance Russian operations in the territories, the bloc said in a statement. It will also “target the ability of the Russian state and government to access the EU’s capital and financial markets and services.” Read More: What Happens Next in Ukraine Could Change Europe Forever The U.S. and its allies continue to warn it could soon invade its neighbor, and just what sanctions the West chooses to impose will be key for commodity markets. Over the weekend British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the U.K and U.S. could stop Russian companies from trading in pounds and dollars if Moscow went through with an attack. But Europe is in a much better position to face gas supply disruptions now than at the end of last year. Mild weather and a fleet of U.S. liquefied natural gas slowed withdraw from storages, and inventories that had fallen to a record should be back within the five-year range before the end of the month. “We believe there is a sufficient inventory buffer for TTF prices to continue to slide lower over the European summer,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report, referring to prices on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s biggest hub. — With assistance from Dina Khrennikova, Olga Tanas and Arne Delfs......»»

Category: topSource: timeFeb 24th, 2022

Thursday links: making stuff simple

MarketsThe current bond market drawdown is not out of historical norms. ( big can prediction markets really get? ('t let the market become your life. ( checklists can reduce avoidable errors. ( stock market forecasters can learn from weather forecasters. ( Capital is launching a new crypto-focused fund. ( crypto outfits attract the attention of SPACs? ( Loeb thinks the market is undervaluing Amazon's ($AMZN) AWS unit. ( ($SHOP) is spending big on its future. ('t underestimate the impact of the professionalization of startups. ( to know if a career in VC is right for you. ( content platforms all go through the same downward spiral. ( managementCharlie Munger is wary of the growing power of index fund managers. ( look at how music royalty funds work. ( initial unemployment claims have stopped going down. ( mortgage rates will soon start hitting supply and demand. ( are set to shift their spending from goods to services, like travel. ( on Abnormal ReturnsLongform links: a weirder world. ( you missed in our Wednesday linkfest. ( finance links: the most precious resource. ( you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. ( mediaTech company recruiters are working overtime to get butts in the seats. ( can get really weird when doing hiring only over Zoom. (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsFeb 24th, 2022

Wednesday links: reliable edges

MarketsIt's official. Financial conditions are tightening. ( funds are off to a bad start to the year. ( debt investors are sitting on a lot of dry powder. ( markets is hard even when you know what will happen. ( isn't about being right or wrong. ( Punxsutawney Phil can teach us about the folly of forecasting. ( cannot buy past returns. ( Revolution That Wasn'tAn excerpt from "The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors" by Spencer Jakab. ( rave review for Spencer Jakab's new book "The Revolution That Wasn't: Gamestop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors." ( ($PYPL) drastically changed its outlook, for the worse. ( much hype, Zelle continues to grow. ( capitalThe stock market pullback is finally working its way through startup valuations. ( in startup naming including 'word combos and puns.' ( the housing market isn't going to normalize any time soon. ( housing supply chain is still stressed. ( prices are not rising uniformly across the U.S. ( you accept free, rural land in Kansas? ( this measure the apartment market is still tight. ( homeownership affects retirement. ( on Abnormal ReturnsPersonal finance links: a non-normal housing market. ( you missed in our Tuesday linkfest. ( links: delightfully weird anomalies. ( ESG links: stakeholder capitalism. ( because sports gambling is legal, doesn't mean you should participate. ( you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. ( mediaRemote work does not solve the problem of too much work. ( checks their voice mail any more. ( to say 'no' better. (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsFeb 6th, 2022

Longform links: how oceans move

Thursdays are all about longform links on Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s linkfest including a look at how we... WorkAn excerpt from Charlie Warzel and Anne Helen Petersen’s forthcoming book "Out of Office: The Big Problem and Bigger Promise of Working From Home." ( paid not work work seems like fun, until it isn't. Inside the world of Infosys. ('s just a matter of time before another lab leak happens. ( story, and high hopes, for the James Webb Space Telescope. ( is selling the location data of its users. ( is just more fun than web2. ( movie dialogue is harder than ever to understand. ( Q&A with Adam McKay director of 'Don't Look Up.' ( professional life in music comes with a physical cost. ( has run out of good ideas. ( the economics of living alone. ('s no such thing as pristine nature. ( brains are big prediction engines. ( to ask for, and take in, feedback. (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsDec 9th, 2021

David Berman And Berna Barshay On Retailers

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing David Berman and Berna Barshay on retailers; Americans are flush with cash and jobs. they also think the economy is awful; don’t let your political views affect your investment or vaccination decisions; his reply to a reader about Aaron Rodgers. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more David […] Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing David Berman and Berna Barshay on retailers; Americans are flush with cash and jobs. they also think the economy is awful; don’t let your political views affect your investment or vaccination decisions; his reply to a reader about Aaron Rodgers. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more David Berman And Berna Barshay On Retailers 1) My friend David Berman of Durban Capital, who I quoted in my e-mail a week ago, is (along with my colleague Berna Barshay) one of the smartest retail sector analysts I know. He was on CNBC on Monday. Here's the four-minute video and his summary: U.S. consumer spending is on fire, according to my proprietary data. The sales growth rate has tripled from pre-pandemic (up 29% over two years), inflation is heading higher, and I expect stronger earnings and higher bond yields. Retailers are flush with cash and have never seen better times. I'm expecting a strong holiday season, high margins with less on sale, offset somewhat by higher wages and freight and shipping costs. Berna is also bullish on retailers and wrote about two of her favorites, Five Below Inc (NASDAQ:FIVE) and Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL), in her Empire Financial Daily from a week ago. Americans Are Flush With Cash and Jobs 2) David and Berna are no doubt correct that the retail sector is white-hot, as is the overall economy, thanks to U.S. households being in a better financial position than they've been in for years. This year alone, employment has risen by more than five million jobs, and a record number of Americans say this is a good time to find a quality job. This New York Times article has some additional bullish data points: Workers have seized the upper hand in the labor market, attaining the largest raises in decades and quitting their jobs at record rates. The unemployment rate is 4.6% and has been falling rapidly. Cumulatively, Americans are sitting on piles of cash; they have accumulated $2.3 trillion more in savings in the last 19 months than would have been expected in the pre-pandemic path. The median household's checking account balance was 50% higher in July of this year than in 2019, according to the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Yet, interestingly, when surveyed, Americans say that the economy is in terrible shape. The same article, Americans Are Flush With Cash and Jobs. They Also Think the Economy Is Awful, notes: Yet, workers' assessment of the economy is scathing. In a Gallup poll in October, 68% of respondents said they thought economic conditions were getting worse. The share who thought things were getting better was lower than in April 2009, when the global financial crisis was still underway. Reasonable people can disagree about the current state of the economy and, even more so, what it's likely to do in the future. But, when thinking about these important issues, it's critical to set aside your emotions and political views. For example, if you're a Republican, you probably think President Joe Biden is a disaster and, because of this, may believe that we're heading into a period of economic (and stock market) decline. But if you are therefore selling stocks, then I think you're likely making as big of a mistake as Democrats did under President Donald Trump, who thought he was a disaster and dumped their stocks. It's remarkable how much people's politics affect their economic views. For instance, in October 2016, just before that year's presidential election, the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment and Component by Political Party was much higher for Democrats (102.1) than for Republicans (74.4). It undoubtedly reflected the assumption of a Democrat in the White House and the widespread expectation that this would continue when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Trump. But when Trump pulled the upset, the numbers more than reversed. The next time the survey broke out results by political party, just after Trump took office in February 2017, consumer sentiment among Democrats had crashed to 77.5, while it soared to 115.7 among Republicans. Similarly, just before the last election in October 2020, consumer sentiment was 72.4 for Democrats and 98 for Republicans. But by February 2021, the numbers had again reversed to 92.4 and 63.6, respectively. Here's a chart showing this post-election shift, published in New York Times' columnist Paul Krugman's recent November 9 newsletter. Of course, most people's political views don't just affect their consumer sentiment but also their investing-related analyses and decision-making. But this is extremely destructive to your long-term returns, so don't let this happen to you! Don't Let Your Political Views Affect Your Investment Or Vaccination Decisions 3) One way I try to reality-test my thinking is to check a New Zealand-based prediction and betting site, PredictIt, which allows people to bet real money on political and economic outcomes. I've found PredictIt's markets to be extremely accurate over time, even though many are small and thinly traded (the site only allows each user to bet a maximum of $850 per market). In my October 26 e-mail, the example I used was the Biden administration's reconciliation bill (also known as Build Back Better). At that time, the PredictIt market showed that there was "about a 21% chance that Democrats fail to pass the bill or that it's smaller than $1.5 trillion..." Interestingly, since then, the odds spiked to 51% (presumably because progressives traded away their biggest negotiating chit when they agreed to vote for the infrastructure bill), as you can see in this 30-day price/odds chart: If you own a stock because you think it will benefit from the passage of this bill, the odds have shifted materially against you in the past 10 days. It's important to recognize this and adjust your investment accordingly, irrespective of whether you want the bill to pass or not. Here's another PredictIt market I follow because it has enormous implications for investors: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? The latest odds show a 66% chance that Republicans take back both the House and Senate: Reply To A Reader About Aaron Rodgers 4) It's even more important not to let your politics influence your medical decisions because the negative outcomes are much worse than losing money: illness, hospitalization, long-term lingering symptoms, and even death. Yet, that's what's happening to an even more extreme degree when it comes to Americans' choices about the COVID-19 vaccines. They were developed in record time thanks in large part to President Trump's Operation Warp Speed. But in one of the most bizarre and tragic reversals I've ever seen, it's his supporters who are disproportionately refusing to get vaccinated. As you can see in this recent survey, 90% of Democrats have already received one dose, and only 2% say they will definitely not get vaccinated, versus 61% and 31%, respectively, for Republicans: I continue to closely follow the pandemic and send periodic updates to my coronavirus e-mail list (which you can sign up for by sending a blank e-mail to: In yesterday's e-mail, I addressed the questions one of my readers raised: "Hi Whitney, In an attempt to precede your future e-mail reaction to [the] Aaron Rodgers interview, I wanted to raise a few issues that you have yet to address in your COVID-19 vaccine e-mails. "1. Natural immunity – many studies have shown that natural immunity far exceeds vaccine-related immunity given its reaction to all parts of the virus rather than only the spike protein which can mutate. "2. Ivermectin – even if you think there is no research-based support of benefit, there is no harm in taking this very cheap drug which has safely been used all over the world. Also, why has there been scant research on Ivermectin? Could it be that Big Pharma controls today's MDs, politics, and the media? "3. Hypocritical – why the same people who championed our medical workers, police, and firefighters who had to brave COVID-19 to save lives before the vaccine are now perfectly OK with firing them from their job if they choose to make a personal choice based on their own health circumstances. "Aaron Rodgers raised many great points that many who are outspoken about the vaccine are unwilling to discuss publicly. Why is that?" – Andrew S. You can read my reply here. Every time I write about the vaccines and encourage people to get vaccinated (my free book offer is still open!), I get plenty of flak from angry readers. So why do I keep returning to this topic? Because I get far more e-mails like these (all just in the past few days): "Appreciate you speaking up on the vaccine. Such a simple thing to do to get our nation past this epidemic. The craziness around this issue is hard to fathom and highlights the destructive qualities of social media." – Chris M. "I'm 59 but had not gotten my booster poke, despite traveling quite a bit and interacting with elderly parents. I was concerned that I might be taking the opportunity away from someone whose needs were greater than my own. But after reading your thoughts/information on the issue, I stopped off at our County Fairgrounds and got the Moderna (MRNA) booster. No lines. Plenty of vaccines. Caring staff. Thanks for the encouragement! Now, if only my adult son would get vaccinated I don't have the right words for him." – Jenn D. "I was planning to hold out to get the vaccine initially, but you convinced me otherwise. I would send you a photo getting my booster, but you have me so pro-vaccination that I got it a while ago" – Nick V. "Your e-mail convinced me to take the booster shot. Thanks." – Shekhar A. "Thanks for reminding me – Moderna booster shot today!" – David S. "I got my booster yesterday based on your recommendation." – Jaison B. Thanks for encouraging me to get my booster COVID-19 Vaccine and I have attached a photo of it here in this e-mail. I am looking forward to receiving the PDF of your new book, The Art of Playing Defense. I know I will benefit greatly from reading it!! I value that you are continuing to closely follow the COVID-19 pandemic and are sending periodic e-mail updates. Many thanks for your encouragement and generosity." – Rosemary I. "I'm so proud of you for doing this as we need everyone that can to get the vaccine. And I think your email stated it nicely." – Linda W. "Your recent email about the booster made it very easy for me to get mine (discussion, links to CVS, etc.). My wife and I even took your advice and got the Moderna booster after initially taking Pfizer (PFE). I have intended to buy the book anyway but thought I might start reading this weekend. Thank you for all that you do." – Gerard B. Best regards, Whitney P.S. I welcome your feedback at Updated on Nov 10, 2021, 5:16 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 10th, 2021

The 7 Malcolm Gladwell books that Goodreads members love the most, from "The Tipping Point" to "Blink"

According to Goodreads, the best Malcolm Gladwell books include "The Tipping Point," "Outliers," and "Blink." When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. According to Goodreads, the best Malcolm Gladwell books include "The Tipping Point," "Outliers," and "Blink." Amazon; Bookshop; Alyssa Powell/Insider Malcolm Gladwell is a bestselling author, journalist, public speaker, and MasterClass instructor. He is best known for his nonfiction writing on psychology and sociology. We used ratings from Goodreads to rank his seven most popular books. Malcolm Gladwell is a Canadian nonfiction writer who is best known for his fascinating psychology and sociology books that shift readers' views of the world and the people around them.His writing is beloved for his clear and accessible presentation of theories, thorough research from a variety of experts and examples, and unique perspectives that leave readers thinking about his writing long after they've closed the book. He also, like many writers, teaches a MasterClass where he shares his best writing tips and secrets.Malcolm Gladwell Teaches Writing (medium)To rank Malcolm Gladwell's most popular books, we turned to Goodreads members. Goodreads is the world's largest book reviewing platform where over 125 million users rate, review, and recommend the books they read to their friends and the community. So whether you're looking for a fascinating new nonfiction read or another popular work from your favorite psychology writer, here are the most popular Malcolm Gladwell books, as ranked by Goodreads members.The 7 most popular Malcolm Gladwell books, as ranked by Goodreads members: "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference" Bookshop; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $9.99With over 700,000 ratings on Goodreads, Malcom Gladwell's debut book, "The Tipping Point," is his most popular book amongst Goodreads members. Loved for Gladwell's concise writing, thorough research, and fresh perspectives, "The Tipping Point" examines the moment when an idea or product reaches a "tipping point" and thus spreads like a wildfire. "Outliers: The Story of Success" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.75In "Outliers," Malcolm Gladwell explores the factors and experiences that contribute to the success of millionaire entrepreneurs, all-star athletes, and inventive geniuses. Both interesting and valuable, Malcolm Gladwell's highly researched theories explore how culture and specific, nurturing circumstances contribute to high levels of success.  "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $11.39Gladwell's second book focuses on the rapid mental processes we use to analyze situations and make decisions in the "blink of an eye." With carefully researched examples and expert interviews, Gladwell presents both the benefits and pitfalls of quick decision-making with anecdotes that present all sides of the argument to readers. "Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know About the People We Don't Know" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.49In this 2019 read, Malcolm Gladwell focuses on our interactions with strangers and the assumptions we make about people we don't know. Using relevant anecdotes from scandals to trials to police brutality, Gladwell pulls from psychology and communication theories to study our relationship with the strangers around us. "Talking to Strangers" also makes for an exciting audiobook, as it follows the structure of Gladwell's podcast and uses interviews and sound bites to enhance listeners' experience. "David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.98In this nonfiction book about underdogs, Malcolm Gladwell studies the probability of seemingly improbable events to show how underdogs achieve the unlikely far more often than we might expect. Combining psychological research with history and science, Gladwell uses anecdotes from throughout history to help readers examine the true meaning of having a hidden advantage. "What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.89"What the Dog Saw" is a compilation of 19 articles Malcolm Gladwell wrote for "The New Yorker" that all aim to change our understanding of the world through the eyes of those around us. Separated into three sections, Malcolm Gladwell discusses lesser-known great people in history, the problems of prediction, and a variety of fascinating sociological topics.  "The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War" Amazon; Lauren Arzbaecher/Insider Available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $24.55"The Bomber Mafia" is Malcolm Gladwell's most recent book, released in April 2021. Differing from his other nonfiction psychology works, this book is a history of the Bomber Mafia in World War II — a group of men who believed they could win the war with a strategic and large number of aircraft bombers. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 3rd, 2021

How the evangelical Christian right seeded the false, yet surprisingly resilient, theory that vaccines contain microchips

Conservative Christian groups have linked the vaccine to the Biblical 'Mark of the Beast' for decades, a claim echoed in current anti-vaxx rhetoric. Anti-vaccine rally protesters hold signs outside of Houston Methodist Hospital in Houston, Texas, on June 26, 2021. MARK FELIX/AFP /AFP via Getty Images The groundless conspiracy theory that vaccines contain microchips is believed by thousands. The narrative has deep roots in the right-wing evangelical movement. Prominent figures turbocharged the theory in the era of COVID-19, helping drive US vaccine hesitancy. See more stories on Insider's business page. Back in August, the right-wing evangelical Mat Staver appeared on an hour-long livestream hosted by the World Prayer Network.In it, he told listeners that vaccines for COVID-19 were not meant to save the world from the pandemic, but instead to radically depopulate it.The groundless theory has no evidence at all to support it, but has proved durable all the same."What is involved in this is depopulation, population control to reduce the population of the planet, and to control everyone, and to do it by force and to have a tracking mechanism to determine whether or not you've had one of these particular injections," Staver said.He linked the fictitious plot to Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who has become a hate figure for right-wing anti-vaccine activists during the pandemic.In an emailed statement to Insider, Staver denied believing the microchip theory, but did not seek to reconcile that with the times he had publicly advocated it.The belief that COVID-19 vaccines are being used to secretly implant tracking mechanisms or microchips has spread far and wide during the pandemic.According to a survey by YouGov for The Economist magazine in July, about half those resistant to getting the shot believe the microchip claim. With about 80 million Americans still unvaccinated, that makes millions of believers in a version of of the conspiracy theory. Some have traced the conspiracy theory back to a Q&A given by Gates on Reddit on March 18, 2020, in the early days of the pandemic.He projected that that "digital certificates" would one day be used to identify who had recovered from the coronavirus, and who had been vaccinated. The reality of today's COVID passports is not far from this prediction.His words were distorted by those who claimed they were evidence of a secret plan to monitor and control people, and gained currency from there. But the conspiracy theory has older and deeper roots, experts have told Insider.A network of right-wing Christian activists and preachers helped seed fears that public-health measures would one day be used as part of a plot to secretly monitor people. It meant that there was fertile ground for conspiracy theorists to plant doubts about the vaccines developed during the pandemic. Multiple surveys suggest that Republicans and white evangelicals are among those least willing to get the shot, overlapping with the most receptive audience for the microchip theory.Andrew Whitehead, an expert on the Christian right who teaches at Indiana University, said: "One reason some groups and individuals on the Christian right champion anti-vax views is their skepticism or even outright rejection of science as a trustworthy source of authority."In their view, science competes with the supremacy of Biblicist authority. Not any and all claims of science, though, just those they perceive to be religiously contested or politically motivated. Vaccines, and especially the COVID-19 vaccine, is in this realm."Vaccines and the 'The Mark of the Beast'Peter Montgomery, a senior researcher at People for the American Way, has for decades monitored right-wing Christian groups and their connections with the Republican Party.He said that many on the Christian right believe that humanity is living through the end of days.They see in public health measures such as vaccine passports evidence of the "Mark of the Beast", proof of widespread allegiance to Satan that predicts the apocalypse in the Bible. Mat Staver in 2015. AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley, File "For many evangelicals who believe that we are living in the 'End Times', there's a strain of rhetoric and thinking out there about the vaccine and the idea of vaccine passports or businesses requiring people to be vaccinated," he said."They connect it all to the 'Mark of the Beast.'" An implanted microchip, on these lines of thinking, would be the ultimate example of such a mark. It's a claim that he sees echoed in the rhetoric of Republican lawmakers who have opposed public-health measures.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in a video in March described Biden administration plans for a vaccine passport as "The Mark of the Beast."-Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) March 30, 2021As far back as a decade ago, Staver's Liberty Counsel, which provides legal support for those challenging federal laws on religious grounds, was drawing links between vaccines and microchip plots.A Liberty Counsel attorney at a public event as far back as 2010 claimed that the Obama administration's swine flu (H1N1) vaccine could be part of a plot to implant microchips.According to Montgomery, the student of the Christian right, the statement was a typical variant of the conspiracy theory that had circulated among right-wing evangelicals, which went on to be cited by preachers at pulpits, on radio shows, and on TV.It emerged again during the pandemic, where it found a vast new audience. Staver, he said, had been among the most prominent opponents of vaccines and other public-health measures as the coronavirus swept the US. In April, Staver appeared on an evangelical podcast to claim that vaccines are part of a plot to "force the submission to the experimental gene therapy," an allusion to a conspiracy theory claiming the vaccines tamper with DNA.A month later he was on the Voice of Christian Youth America radio station, where on its "CrossTalk" program, he claimed, groundlessly, that pregnant women are having miscarriages by being near vaccinated people. Other right-wing Christians have also helped spread the microchips conspiracy theory.An investigation in July by The Verge found that an online sermon by Baptist pastor Adam Fannin played a role in popularizing the theory in the early days of the pandemic. And deep links between the right-wing evangelical movement and the QAnon conspiracy theory movement had also helped boost anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, said Joe Ondrak, head of investigations at LogicallyAI, a UK-based company that uses AI to track disinformation."The 'Mark of the Beast' gets heavily folded into QAnon conspiracy theories as well,' he said, noting that that both movements involve the belief that Satanic elites are plotting against ordinary Americans. Staver in an emailed reply to questions from Insider denied believing that vaccines are used to implant microchips. "This is false. That is not my opinion," he said. On the issue of whether the vaccines cause infertility, he said that "it is unknown whether they cause infertility since this issue was not part of the clinical trials and the data will not be available for some time."The CDC has said there is no evidence that the vaccines harm fertility, and a growing body of evidence that they do not.The agency initially limited it advice on taking the vaccine while pregnant, but in August 2021 updated its position to unambiguously recommend it, citing new data.Staver went on to argue that there were many credible reports of adverse reactions to the vaccines. "We speak with many healthcare workers and doctors to learn about what they are seeing in addition to the data," he said, without giving any specifics."Of course not everyone has adverse events, but the adverse events cannot be ignored and must be investigated rather than merely discounting them."Adverse effects are already subject to monitoring like that described by Staver.The CDC noted that it, the FDA, and other agencies are monitoring such events. On occasion it has acted on them, prompting policies like the pause in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine rollout in April, which was lifted after 11 days.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 24th, 2021

Thursday links: ignoring the prediction racket

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Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsDec 26th, 2019

ESG links: lacking prediction power

We are now publishing ESG links on a monthly basis. You can check out the previous set of links including a l.....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsDec 3rd, 2019

Longform links: the changing nature of volatility

Saturdays are all about longform links on Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s linkfest including a look at political prediction... BusinessSome business lessons from Mark Leonard of Constellation Software fa.....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsApr 14th, 2018

"Prehistoric Planet" uses cutting-edge effects to show incredible details of how dinosaurs lived — here"s how to watch on Apple TV Plus

The nature docuseries is narrated by Sir David Attenborough. You can watch "Prehistoric Planet" exclusively on Apple TV Plus ($5/month). Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Apple TV Plus "Prehistoric Planet" is a new five-part docuseries on Apple TV Plus. The show uses wildlife filmmaking and visual effects to recreate the era of the dinosaurs.  Apple TV Plus subscriptions cost $5/month after a one-week free trial. The first episode of "Prehistoric Planet" premiered on May 23 exclusively on Apple TV Plus. The new five-part series, produced by BBC Studios, will debut one new episode every day through May 27. "Prehistoric Planet" is a natural history miniseries that transports viewers back 66 million years to the age of the dinosaurs. Using wildlife filmmaking techniques and advanced visual effects, the show aims to paint a fuller picture of Earth during the Cretaceous era by showing the dinosaurs in their natural habitats. Check out the trailer for 'Prehistoric Planet'"Prehistoric Planet" is narrated by Sir David Attenborough and features a new original score and theme from Oscar-winning composer Hans Zimmer. The show is executive produced by Jon Favreau (creator of "The Mandalorian") and Mike Gunton (the Creative Director of the BBC Natural History Unit). How to watch 'Prehistoric Planet' You can watch "Prehistoric Planet" exclusively on Apple TV Plus. The first episode debuted on May 23. Apple TV Plus costs $5 a month for ad-free access to the service's entire streaming library of original content. The Apple TV Plus app is supported on most major connected devices, including iOS and Android smartphones, tablets, streaming media players, and smart TVs. For a full list of supported devices, check out the Apple TV website. Apple TV Plus (Monthly Plan)$4.99 FROM APPLE TV+Can I watch 'Prehistoric Planet' for free?You can watch "Prehistoric Planet" for free with an Apple TV Plus trial. New members are eligible for a seven-day free trial before they are charged the monthly price. Since "Prehistoric Planet" is a five-day event series, you can sign up for the free trial on May 23 and catch all five new episodes on the day they're released.Several promotions are available for longer trial periods as well. If you purchase an eligible Apple iPad, iPhone, or Apple TV streaming device, you can get a three month free trial of Apple TV Plus. Additionally, T-Mobile users may be eligible for a year of free Apple TV Plus. To see if you qualify for the promotion, check out the T-Mobile website.How many episodes of 'Prehistoric Planet' are there? There are five episodes of "Prehistoric Planet." A new episode will premiere every day for five days beginning May 23. What time do new episodes of 'Prehistoric Planet' come out? A new episode of "Prehistoric Planet" will be released at 12 a.m. ET/9 p.m. PT on Apple TV Plus every day from May 23-27.What else can I watch on Apple TV Plus? Apple TV Plus is home to a growing library of original series and movies. A few popular Apple TV Plus originals you can stream right now include: "The Essex Serpent" "Severance""Pachinko""Ted Lasso""The Afterparty""Tehran" "WeCrashed""Shining Girls""CODA""The Tragedy of Macbeth"Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider1 hr. 14 min. ago

The 46 best fantasy books to escape into this summer, from the classics to new highly anticipated sequels

Whether you like fantasy books with a dash of drama, historical fiction, romance, or science fiction, these novels are sure to become favorites. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Whether you like fantasy books with a dash of drama, historical fiction, romance, or science fiction, these novels are sure to become favorites.Amazon; Alyssa Powell/Insider Fantasy books are delightfully filled with magic, creatures, and new worlds. This list ranges from classic fantasy novels to exciting new releases. We looked at bestsellers, award-winners, and reader recommendations to find the best fantasy books. Fantasy books are a blissful escape from reality into worlds of magical creatures, mythological heroes, and folklore come to life. They are where we can discover new worlds where heroes and heroines face brutal beasts, travel across distant lands, and unearth forgotten kingdoms. From epic high fantasy to magical realism, the fantasy genre is expansive. Fantasy can include countless different types of magic, characters, and adventurous pursuits and many of these novels intertwine with other genres, especially science fiction and romance. To compile this list of best fantasy books, we looked at all-time fantasy bestsellers, award-winners, and new releases about which readers are raving. So whether you're looking to find a magical first fantasy read or delve deeper into a sub-genre you already love, here are some of the best fantasy novels to read this summer. The 46 best classic and new fantasy books to read in 2022:A historical fantasy retelling of an ancient Indian epicAmazon"Kaikeyi" by Vaishnavi Patel, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.54For fans of "Circe," "Kaikeyi" is the historical fantasy tale of a young woman who discovers her magic while looking for deeper answers in the texts she once read with her mother. When Kaikeyi transforms into a warrior and a favored, feminist queen, darkness from her past resurfaces and the world she has built clashes with the destiny the gods once chose for her family, forcing Kaikeyi to face the consequences of resistance and the legacy she may leave behind. A new exciting fantasy sequelAmazon"Fevered Star" by Rebecca Roanhorse, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $23.49"Fevered Star" is the highly anticipated sequel to "Black Sun," and continues as sea captain Xiala finds new allies with the war in the heavens affecting the Earth. Meanwhile, avatars Serapio and Naranpa must continue to fight for free will despite the wave of destiny and prophecy they face in this fantasy novel loved for its unique cast of characters and incredible world-building. The first epic fantasy novel in an upcoming trilogyAmazon"The Woven Kingdom" by Tahereh Mafi, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.99"This Woven Kingdom" intertwines fantastical Persian mythology and rich romance in the first novel of an upcoming fantasy trilogy about Alizeh, the long-lost heir to the kingdom for which she works as a servant. Kamran, the crown prince, has heard the prophecies his kingdom is destined to face but couldn't imagine the strange servant girl would be the one to uproot everything he's ever known. The most classic fantasy you can getAmazon"The Hobbit" by J. R. R. Tolkien, available on Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.37An introduction to the mystical world of "The Lord of the Rings," "The Hobbit" is one of the most charming adventure fantasies in history. It's the timeless story of Bilbo Baggins meeting Gandalf as they set out to raid the treasure guarded by a dragon — indisputably a classic fantasy novel, and a must-read for any fantasy lover. A fantastical retelling of Chinese mythologyAmazon"Daughter of the Moon Goddess" by Sue Lynn Tan, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.19Inspired by the legend of Chang'e, the Chinese moon goddess, "Daughter of the Moon Goodess" follows Xingyin as her existence is discovered by the feared Celestial emperor and she must flee her home and leave her mother behind. In this mythological retelling, Xingyin must learn archery and magic in the very empire that once exiled her mother and challenge the Celestial Emperor with her life, loves, and the fate of the entire realm at stake. A steamy fantasy retelling of "Beauty and the Beast"Amazon"A Court of Thorns and Roses" by Sarah J. Maas, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.49In this wildly popular series, Feyre is brought to a magical kingdom on the crime of killing a faerie where both she and the secrets of her captor are closely guarded. This series is known for its careful pacing, beautiful romance, and nightmarish fantasy creatures. The final book was just released, so now you can binge-read straight to the end. A historical fantasy that you won’t soon forgetAmazon"The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue" by V.E. Schwab, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.19In 1714, Addie LaRue accidentally prays to the gods that answer after dark and curses herself to a life in which she cannot be remembered. This book spans 300 years as Addie lives without a trace until one day, she meets a boy who remembers her name. Contrary to the premise, Addie's story is one that stays with you long after you finish this book. This was my favorite book of 2020 and remains in my top five of all time. A fantasy book that begins with "It was a dark and stormy night"Amazon"A Wrinkle in Time" by Madeleine L'Engle, available on Amazon and Bookshop, from $5.35This is one of the few books from my childhood that has stood the test of time and remained on my bookshelf to this day. Meg Murry — along with her mother and brother — rushes downstairs in the middle of the night to find a strange visitor in the kitchen, launching an adventure through space and time to save Meg's father and the world. I was whisked away by the magic in this story, along with so many other readers. A fantasy story that will take you to a new worldAmazon"The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe" by C.S. Lewis, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $7.64Though chronologically second, this was the first "Chronicles of Narnia" book to be published and therefore should be read first. It tells the story of three siblings who step through the door of a wardrobe and find themselves in the magical land of Narnia, enchanted by the evil White Witch. They team up with a lion and join the battle to save Narnia. C.S. Lewis wrote: "Some day, you will be old enough to start reading fairy tales again," and that resonates with so many readers who pick this book up and hold it close to their hearts forever.A fantasy series that's quickly become a modern classicAmazon"A Game of Thrones" series by George R. R. Martin, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $26.93The "Game of Thrones" series is hailed as an undeniable classic even though it was just published in 2005. The entire series is iconic. It's about families caught in a never-ending war over who rules over the seven kingdoms. In these books, the good guys don't always win and the heroes don't always live. There are highly complicated characters, tons of subplots, and every kind of conflict imaginable. A powerful and diverse fantasy with contemporary issuesAmaozon"Legendborn" by Tracy Deonn, available at Amazon and Bookshop, $16.29"Legendborn" has quickly become a favorite amongst fantasy readers since it was published in September 2020. It weaves issues of grief, racism, and oppression with Arthurian-inspired magic. Bree enrolls in a college program for gifted high schoolers after an accident that left her mother dead. When an attempt to wipe Bree's memory after she witnesses a magical attack fails, her own magic and memories begin to return to her and leave her wondering if her mother's death was truly an accident. An enchanting, magical fantasy adventureBookshop"The Girl Who Fell Beneath the Sea" by Axie Oh, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.99Mina's homeland has been devastated by storms for generations so every year, a maiden is sacrificed to the sea in the hopes the Sea God will take a true bride and end the villages' suffering. When Shim Cheong, her brother's beloved, is chosen for the next sacrifice, Mina throws herself into the sea in her place and is swept into the Spirit Realm where she seeks to wake the Sea God, confront him — and save her homeland before her time in the realm runs out. A feminist fairy tale classicAmazon"Ella Enchanted" by Gail Carson Levine, available at Amazon and Bookshop, $7.35Whether or not you've seen the hilarious Anne Hathaway movie, this is one to pick up. It's the story of Ella, enchanted as an infant with the "gift" of obedience. It quickly turns into a curse as Ella can't help but do what she's told no matter who orders her or how silly (or dangerous) the order may be. When Ella finds she might be in danger, she sets out to undo the curse and ends up on an adventure with ogres, elves, even the classic pumpkin carriage. I thought this book was just as amusing as the movie and I probably read it a dozen times as a teen. A deadly fantasy tale of three royal sistersAmazon"Three Dark Crowns" series by Kendare Blake, available at Amazon and Bookshop from $14.99In every royal generation on the island of Fennbirn, a set of triplets is born. They are each equal heirs to the throne and possess one of three magics: control of the elements, affinity to nature and animals, or immunity to poison. When the girls turn sixteen, the fight for the crown begins and will only end once only one queen remains. In this dark series about strong women, the tension and twists build with each novel until the action-packed and intensely satisfying ending. The magic in these books is easy to understand and really entertaining to read. I loved seeing this sisterhood grow and change over the four books.A bloody fantasy epic of warrior womenAmazon"The Gilded Ones" by Namina Forna, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.39Deka is already different from the rest of her village, but when she bleeds gold — the mark of a demon girl — during a ceremony, she faces consequences worse than death. She is soon offered a choice: to stay and face her fate or leave and fight in an army of girls like her. This story moves swiftly with a mix of dystopian fantasy, horror, and a touch of romance. It can be quite violent at times, as demon girls suffer death after gruesome death. If you've ever been hesitant about picking up YA fantasy, this is one that won't disappoint. A dark fantasy that's perfect for a rainy dayAmazon"Neverwhere" by Neil Gaiman, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.29While you are probably more familiar with "Coraline," "Neverwhere" is a Neil Gaiman book that just can't be passed over. On the streets of London, Richard Mayhew stops to help a bleeding girl and ends up in Neverwhere — a dark version of London where monsters lurk in the shadows. After finishing this, you'll ask yourself why you haven't read more of his novels. Gaiman also has a series on MasterClass that deconstructs his storytelling yet somehow adds more magic to every book. A classic fantasy novel full of magicAmazon"A Wizard of Earthsea" by Ursula K. Le Guin, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $6.79When Ged was young, he was the reckless Sparrowhawk. Now he's grown into the most powerful sorcerer in Earthsea, but he must face the consequences of the power-hungry actions of his younger self. This book (and the entire six-book series) continues to enchant fantasy readers 50 years after its first publication. Through graceful writing and impeccable character development, Le Guin challenges us to know and embrace our true selves.A high seas pirate adventure storyAmazon"Fable" by Adrienne Young, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.69Fable is a trader, a fighter, and a survivor. Four years ago, she watched her mother drown in a ruthless storm and her father abandon her on an island of thieves. Relying on the skills her mother taught her, Fable enlists West to help her confront her father and demand a place on his crew. When she finally makes it off the island, Fable learns how much more dangerous her father's work has become and finds that the island may have been the safest place for her after all. This is a gritty story with a strong feminist lead and (thankfully) a sequel that was just released.A fantasy series where light and dark magic exist in parallel worldsAmazon"A Darker Shade of Magic" by V.E. Schwab, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $8.99Kell is a smuggler and one of the last magicians able to travel between parallel Londons: red, white, grey, and (long ago) black. After being robbed and then saved by Delilah Bard, the two set out on an adventure to save themselves and the worlds through which they travel. Schwab is a masterful world-builder and you will absolutely travel right along with this pair. Because of this series, I have become a sucker for a parallel universe trope. The fantasy story of a forced marriage between a witch and a witch hunterAmazon"Serpent & Dove" by Shelby Mahurin, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.59In Belterra, witches are feared and burned at the stake by ruthless witch hunters. For two years, Louise hid her magic to stay alive until one mistake set in motion a story of impossible choices, an enemies-to-lover romance, and a tangled battle between right and wrong. With how compelling the writing is, you'd never guess it is a debut novel. I bought this one just for the gorgeous cover and had no idea how extraordinary it would be.A criminal account of a steampunk band of anti-heroesAmazon"Six of Crows" by Leigh Bardugo, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $7.99Kaz is a professional criminal, offered an alluring heist that he can't pass up, but he can't pull off alone. This story is completely brilliant, gritty, and a little messy. With six main characters, "Six of Crows" is a fast-paced heist, a story that leaves you constantly surprised as you'll never fully know any one character's intentions due to its third-person point of view.The fantastical tale of a magical unicornAmazon"The Last Unicorn" by Peter S. Beagle, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.99This is a beautiful fairy tale with poems and songs set throughout the pages. In this book, a unicorn who lives alone in a forest protected from death decides to find what happened to the others. Helped by a magician and a spinster, the unicorn sets out on a journey of love and destiny, faced with an evil king who aims to rid the world of the final unicorn. The life lessons woven throughout this book are bittersweet, but also real and honest. A cherished chronicle of magical children and guarded secretsAmazon"The House in the Cerulean Sea" by T.J Klune, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.29This is one of the few books I refer to as "beautiful." Linus Baker is a quiet caseworker for the Department of Magical Youth — and has just been charged with investigating a highly secretive case that requires him to travel to an island where six dangerous magical orphans (including the actual son of Satan) live under the care of Arthur Parnassus. This book is all about family, filled with comforting magic as you come to care for fictional characters. Plus, reading about a child who is trying to be a good kid while also being the literal Anti-Christ is absolutely hysterical and was the highlight of this book for me.A dark, horror-fantasy book about occult magicAmazon"Ninth House" by Leigh Bardugo, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.55Alex Stern is recovering in the hospital after surviving an unsolved homicide when she's mysteriously offered a full ride at Yale University. The only catch: she has to monitor the activities of the school's secret societies that practice dark magic. Alex, a high school dropout from LA, has no idea why she's been chosen but by the time she finds out, she'll be in too deep. This book won the Goodreads Choice Awards "Best Fantasy" category in 2019 and it absolutely lives up to the hype. It's intense, bloody, and powerful as dangerous magic weaves itself into an everyday school setting. A truly fun Greek mythology storyAmazon"The Lightning Thief" by Rick Riordan, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $5.98Deeply loved, the Percy Jackson books are just as regarded as "The Hunger Games" or "Divergent." Percy has no idea that he is a demigod, son of Poseidon, but he's having trouble in school, unable to focus or control his temper. Percy is sure that his teacher tried to kill him and when his mom finds out, she knows she needs to tell him the truth about where he came from. He goes to a summer camp for demigods and teams up with two friends to reach the Underworld in order to prevent a war between the gods. Percy makes a great hero and it's so easy to root for him as he pushes through his journey, the pages filled with Grade-A characters, action scenes, and monsters. A West-African inspired fantasy world of danger and magicAmazon"Children of Blood and Bone" by Tomi Adeyemi, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.99After a ruthless king left the world without magic and her mother dead, Zélie finds she has only one chance to save her people. On a dangerous journey to restore magic to the land before it is lost forever, Zélie's greatest danger may be herself. Readers agree that the best parts of this book are the characters, who all go on a transformative journey as they fight for peace. This is in TIME's Top 100 Fantasy Books of All Time, which is a huge deal. A captivating vampire fantasy novelAmazon"Crave" by Tracy Wolff, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $11.51It's easy to draw a comparison between "Crave" and "Twilight," especially since the moment "brooding vampires" is mentioned, everyone's first thought is Edward Cullen. Plus, the cover looks like it's part of Stephanie Meyer's famous saga. But the "Crave" series is more sophisticated and literary while embracing the inherent cringe that now seems to accompany any vampire story. This is an engaging read because it blends nostalgia with something fresh and new. Open this book when you're ready to have fun with reading — the cheesy moody vampire moments are absolutely present amongst turf wars, a gothic academy, and dragons. A dark urban fantasy where people hunt the godsAmazon"Lore" by Alexandra Bracken, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.99Greek mythology meets "The Hunger Games" in this world where every seven years, nine Greek gods are forced to walk the earth as mortals, hunted by those eager to steal divine power and immortality for themselves. Lore wants to leave this brutality behind when her help is sought out by two opposing participants: a childhood friend she thought long dead and a gravely wounded Athena. The world created in this standalone is thorough and complex. But if you love crazy twists and that "just one more chapter" feeling, you should give this a shot.An iconic fantasy book that checks every boxAmazon"The Princess Bride" by William Goldman, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.11"The Princess Bride" is a modern classic that has something for everyone: action, beasts, true love, and a whole lot of fighting. A beautiful girl, Buttercup, and her farm boy, Westley, have fallen madly in love. Westley sets off to claim his fortune so he can marry her before he's ambushed by pirates. Thinking he's dead, Buttercup marries an evil prince as Westley plans to return to her. It's riddled with narration from the author that really adds to the passion and humor of this book.A 200-years-later fantasy sequel to "Cinderella"Amazon"Cinderella is Dead" by Kalynn Bayron, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.63200 years after Cinderella found her prince, girls are required to appear at the annual ball where men select their wives. If a girl is not selected, she is never heard from again. Sophia would much rather marry her love, Erin, so she flees the ball where she runs into Constance, the last known descendant of Cinderella. Together, they decide to bring down the king once and for all. This book gathered attention for its Black and queer lead characters that have no intention of waiting for a night in shining armor to save them. It's a story of bravery, anger, and fighting for love.A fantasy that's all about booksAmazon"Inkheart" by Cornelia Funke, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $9.29Meggie's father is reading to her from a book called "Inkheart" one night when an evil stranger from her father's past knocks on their door. When Meggie's dad is kidnapped, she has to learn to control the magic to change the story that's taken over her life, creating a world that she's only read about in books. It's a story about magic, for sure, but also about the unwavering bond between Meggie and her father — a truly heartwarming love that you'll feel as a reader.  A darker collection of fairy talesAmazon"The Complete Grimm's Fairy Tales" by Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $4.95The German brothers who wrote this book aimed to collect stories exactly how they were told. This led to a collection of fairy tales that we all know and love, minus the obligatory "happily ever afters." It has all the classics like "Cinderella" and "Rapunzel" that haven't been softened or brightly colored for younger audiences. This is great for anyone who loves the feeling of discovering all the secrets behind the stories or movies we loved when we were young.A fantasy re-telling of "Romeo and Juliet," set in 1920s ShanghaiAmazon"These Violent Delights" by Chloe Gong, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.99In 1926, a blood feud has left the city starkly divided, Juliette the heir to the Scarlet Gang and Roma the heir to the White Flowers. They were each other's first love, separated by their families and long ago (but not forgotten) betrayal. Now, as a mysterious illness is causing the people to claw their own throats out, Roma and Juliette must put aside their differences to save their city. This one features a river monster, a serious amount of blood and gore, and nods to the original "Romeo and Juliet" throughout. A fantastical tapestry of legends and rivalriesAmazon"The Priory of the Orange Tree" by Samantha Shannon, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.24Told from four points of view, Queen Sabran IX must conceive a daughter, for the legends say that as long as a queen rules, the monster beneath the sea will sleep. But as the assassins close in, the eastern and western kingdoms of Virtudom refuse to unite, even against an ancient and monumental threat that could kill them all. This is 800 pages of high fantasy, charged by dragons, queer representation, and a large cast of characters — but don't worry, you can find a glossary and character list in the back to help you keep it all straight. It's been hailed as "A feminist successor to 'The Lord of the Rings'" and decidedly embraces that praise.A fantasy novel hailed for its romanceAmazon"From Blood and Ash" by Jennifer L. Armentrout, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.67While this absolutely falls into the fantasy genre, it actually won the Goodreads Choice Awards for "Best Romance" in 2020. Poppy is the Maiden, chosen to fulfill a destiny that has never been fully explained to her, living the life of a recluse and awaiting to ascend to prove she is worthy to the gods and can protect her land from the curse. When she can't stand it anymore, she sneaks away from the kingdom and meets Hawke, spurring a desperate secret romance. The beginning of the first book is slow, but the momentum builds quickly. It ends on a huge cliffhanger but the second one has already been released and the third is out on April 20, 2021. A classic Arthurian taleAmazon"The Sword in the Stone" by T. H. White, available on Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.50Before the famous King Arthur, there was a boy named Wart, a wizard named Merlin, and a sword stuck in a stone. In this story, Merlin helps Wart learn valuable coming-of-age lessons as he grows up. It feels both medieval and modern, with an emotional ending as Wart finally faces the sword. If you loved the Disney movie, you should still read this, since they're very different. The witchy prequel to “Practical Magic”Amazon"The Rules of Magic" by Alice Hoffman, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.30Franny, Bridget, and Vincent are growing up in the 1950s, aware that they are different but held under strict parental rules to keep them safe and away from magic. When they visit their Aunt Isabelle in Massachusetts where their family name holds great history, the Owens siblings learn to embrace their magical sides. You don't need to have read "Practical Magic" to love this story of sibling love and finding your identity. The book is simply delightful and the whole thing feels like a cool autumn in Salem. A fantasy series that you'll hold close long after the final bookAmazon"Throne of Glass" series by Sarah J. Maas, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $6.59This entire eight-book series has insanely high reviews, with a ton of fantasy readers picking up anything Sarah J. Maas writes. It follows Celaena Sardothien, an assassin who is offered a chance to serve as the King's Champion and earn her freedom after serving in a camp for her crimes. Celaena is drawn into a series of battles and a deeply woven conspiracy, discovering secrets about the kingdom and herself. This is an epic, powerful, and brilliant journey that might just become your new favorite series.The first in a new "Shadowhunter" seriesAmazon"Chain of Gold" by Cassandra Clare, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.49Cordelia is a Shadowhunter, a warrior who has trained all her life to battle demons. On a mission to prove her father's innocence, she travels to London where she meets James, a childhood friend. She's whisked into his secret and dazzling life when a series of demon attacks hit London. These new monsters seem impossible to kill as they hide in plain sight and close off the city. The characters are what drives this book and if you've read other "Shadowhunter" novels by Cassandra Clare, you'll love getting to know family members you've heard about before. A portal fantasy that all begins with a girl finding magic in a bookAmazon"The Ten Thousand Doors of January" by Alix E Harrow, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.99While serving as the ward to a wealthy man, January finds a strange book that tells a story of secret doors, adventure, and danger. As she reads, January is taken on an imaginative journey of discovery as a book she thought was fiction elaborately bends her reality. It's a portal story of love and enchanting adventure, a book about a book that will mercilessly break your heart but gracefully put it back together. A wintery fairytale story, loosely based on “Rumpelstiltskin”Amazon"Spinning Silver" by Naomi Novik, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.99Miryem quickly earns a reputation for being able to spin silver to gold after setting out to save her family from poverty, capturing the attention of the Ice King. This is a woven story of three women, three mothers, and three marriages. Naomi Novik does an incredible job of helping you follow each story, creating some amazingly strong female protagonists. This is not your typical fairytale, but it's still full of whimsical writing, familial bonds, and tons of charm.  A deep-sea fantasy journey with seven kinds of magicAmazon"All The Stars and Teeth" by Adalyn Grace, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $9.89In a kingdom where you can choose your magic, Amora knows that to be queen, she must master the dangerous but fickle soul magic. When her demonstration fails, Amora flees and strikes a deal with a pirate: she will help him reclaim his magic if he can help her prove that she's fit to rule. "All the Stars and Teeth" is an epic adventure-driven fantasy featuring mermaids, sea monsters, and a kingdom in danger. A fantasy book that will pull you in from the first lineAmazon"A Curse So Dark and Lonely" by Brigid Kemmerer, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $9.89Set in the parallel land of Emberfall, a cursed Prince Rhen has become a destructive, murderous monster. Harper, a regular girl with cerebral palsy, was mistakenly kidnapped and is now the prince's only hope. Yes, this is the second "Beauty and the Beast" retelling in this roundup but they are both so different and so loved. Readers come for the complexity of Rhen and Harper and stay for the snarky, hysterical bickering between the two.A fantasy story of a darkly magical school where you graduate or dieAmazon"A Deadly Education" by Naomi Novik, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $17.41At Scholomance, magically gifted students must survive to graduate — and failure means death. There are no teachers, no breaks, and only two rules: don't walk the halls alone, and beware of the monsters that lurk everywhere. El has no allies, just incredibly strong dark magic that could save her — but might kill all the other students. El's evolution and hilarity during this story plus Novik's thoughtful world-building and extremely diverse cast of characters are what make this a favorite. A fae-centered high fantasyAmazon"The Cruel Prince" by Holly Black, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.9910 years ago, Jude and her sisters were kidnapped after their parents' murder and taken to the land of Faerie, where they are mortal humans amongst fantastical but cruel creatures. In order to belong, Jude must win a place in the high court which will require her to defy the youngest prince. Holly Black (crowned the supreme Faerie-world writer) creates a world so real, you'll forget its magic. A new fantasy duology of a world of enchanted injusticeAmazon"Spellbreaker" by Charlie N. Holmberg, available at Amazon and Bookshop, $8.49There are two kinds of wizards in the world: those who pay for the power to cast spells and those born with the ability to break them. Elise was born a spellbreaker but her gift is a crime. While on a mission to break the enchantments of aristocrats, Elise is discovered and must strike a bargain with an elite wizard to protect herself. It's a fun fantasy mystery with plenty of twists and danger that are sure to keep you intrigued.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider3 hr. 14 min. ago

Hackers target bestselling NFT artist Beeple"s Twitter account and make off with $438,000 from followers through a phishing scam

"Stay safe out there," the NFT artist told his followers after the targeted scam. Beeple in 2021 sold one of his NFTs for $69 million. Beeple"Human One" NFT and sculpture Christie's auction cryptoChristie's Hackers targeted NFT artist Beeple's Twitter account to lure followers into a phishing scam.  A security analyst at MetaMask alerted followers on Sunday about the attack.  The scam was took advantage of Beeple's previous work with luxury fashion house Louis Vuitton.  Beeple, the artist who made history by selling one of his non-fungible tokens for $69 million, was targeted on Twitter by hackers who took more than $400,000 from some of his followers. Beeple said in a Sunday post on Twitter he had regained control of his account, confirming the hack in a message to his 673,000 followers. "Stay safe out there, anything too good to be true IS A FUCKING SCAM," wrote Beeple, who caught the attention of the crypto world last year by when his "Everydays: The First 500 Days" NFT sold for $69.3 million at an auction held by Christie's.The message from Beeple, whose real name is Mike Winkelmann, arrived hours after security analyst Harry Denley at cryptocurrency wallet MetaMask alerted Beeple's followers about the attack. Denley under his harry.eth account on Twitter said Beeple's account had been compromised "to post a phishing website to steal funds." The hackers took advantage of Beeple's collaboration with Louis Vuitton last year under which the artist designed collectible NFTs for a game commemorating the 200th year of the luxury fashion house.Hackers put links in Beeple's account that looked like it was a raffle connected to a Beeple-Vuitton collection. But if clicked, the links siphoned off money from users' crypto wallets.  The "bad actors" through two scams captured $438,000 within about five hours, from followers on Beeple's account, wrote Denley."And as side note," wrote Beeple, "there will never be a SURPRISE MINT I mention one time in one place starting at 6am Sunday morning."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider3 hr. 41 min. ago

Monday links: superficial filler

MarketsTwo extreme market scenarios for the rest of 2022. ( media hype was blaring last week. ( ($AAPL) wants to shift more production out of China. ( more industrial companies are investing outside of their core business. ( is laying off 10% of its workforce. ( Bros. Discover ($WBD) is poised for success. ( much revenue could Netflix ($NFLX) generate from an ad-supported tier? ( does Warren Buffett see in Paramount Global ($PARA)? ('s nothing magic about Netflix's ($NFLX) much vaunted algorithm. ( look at how Morgan Stanley ($MS) is planning to enter the ETF space. ( you need to look inside any ETF you buy, especially when it comes to ESG. ( on Abnormal ReturnsAdviser links: active personalization. ( you missed in our Sunday linkfest. ( clicks last week on the site. ( you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. ( mediaSeth Godin, "Just because they’re easy to measure doesn’t mean they matter." ( people back into the office isn't going to work long term ( to spend less time on your e-mail and get more done. (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns6 hr. 13 min. ago

23 thoughtful yet inexpensive Father"s Day gifts for $25 or less

For Father's Day this year, you don't have to spend more than $25 to show your dad you're thinking of him and appreciate him. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.For Father's Day this year, you don't have to spend more than $25 to show your dad you're thinking of him and appreciate him.YETI/Harry'sYour parents might say to you every year that they don't need a gift for Mother's or Father's Day. Chances are, you still want to get them a gift for everything they do for you, even if it's something simple.For Father's Day this year, you don't have to spend more than $25 to show your dad you're thinking of him and appreciate all that he does. Fresh herbs he doesn't have to babysit, a gourmet hot sauce, and pampering grooming products are all gifts that he'll use all the time — that and won't break the bank. The 23 best Father's Day gifts under $25 in 2022:A curated coffee subscriptionBean BoxGift a Bean Box coffee subscription, starting at $16.50, available at Bean BoxBest for: Dads who get bored with the same coffee every dayChoose how often your dad will receive a fresh bag of whole bean coffee from this popular artisanal brand. A coffee-tasting subscription lets him discover four expertly curated coffees while the coffee bag subscription makes sure a cup of joe is never far from his cupboard.A movie-themed cookbookUncommon GoodsGift "Eat What You Watch" Cookbook, $25, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who love movies *and* cookingRemember the heavenly double-decker New York-style pizza from "Saturday Night Fever" or the blueberry pie in "Stand By Me?" Now, movie buff dads can flip through over 40 recipes inspired by their favorite iconic moments on the big screen. A low-key herb gardenUncommon Goods; Business InsiderGift the Mason Jar Indoor Herb Garden, $24, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who sprinkle fresh herbs on everythingThese planters, which can grow popular herbs such as basil or mint, use a passive hydroponic system that makes it easy for him to maintain his mini garden. All he has to do is pick the seeds, plant them, put water in its reservoir, plop the jars near a sunny window, and the rest is magic.A non-fussy phone chargerAmazonGift the Anker Wireless Charging Stand, $15.99, available at AmazonBest for: Dads who appreciate convenienceWhen he uses this wireless charger, he can drop his phone (phone case and all) onto it and let it charge by touch.A set of dice to inspire easy workoutsUncommon GoodsGift Fitness Dice, $19, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who never skip a workoutAt-home workouts have never been more fun than with this fitness dice set. Every roll is one in 45,000 possible routines, without any equipment required. An upgrade to plastic takeout containersUncommon GoodsGift Handmade Noodle Bowl with Chopsticks, $25, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who love takeout (but not the packaging)Ditch the plastic or paper takeout containers and serve food in this handmade bowl. The glazed bowl and chopstick set will be Dad's new go-to when he prepares his favorite noodle, soup, and rice dishes. A Wi-Fi range extender to prevent any pesky service disruptionsAmazonGift the TP-Link AC750 WiFi Range Extender, $24.99, available at AmazonBest for: Dads who hate Wi-Fi outagesWi-Fi signals sometimes fail to reach every corner of your home, and if the whole family is at home, that can be frustrating and challenging. The TP-Link AC750 WiFi Extender can plug into most common outlets to cover up to 1,500 square feet in Dad's home. After he hits the WPS button on the home router, he'll have to hit the range extender on the TP-Link device. After that, he'll be able to get dual-band speeds of up to 750 Mbps in otherwise difficult-to-reach areas in his home.A high-quality thermos he'll take everywhereYETIGift the YETI Rambler 10 oz Lowball, $20, available at YETIBest for: Dads who hate a lukewarm anythingAn insulated, stainless steel cup that will keep cold drinks cold in the summer and hot ones hot in the winter, the YETI Rambler Lowball was made for campfire and lakeside gatherings. If he's hanging out in the great outdoors, he'll want to keep this cup close at hand. A truly unique hot sauceSmall Axe Peppers Hot SauceGift The Bronx Greenmarket Hot Sauce (Green, 5 oz), $7.99, available at AmazonBest for: Dads who love a bit of spiceThis all-natural, tangy hot sauce is part of the lineup on the popular YouTube series "Hot Ones" and is made from Serrano peppers grown in over 30 community gardens throughout the Bronx. A ticket stub album to collect his favorite memoriesUncommon GoodsGift Ticket Stub Diary, $14, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who cherish every live eventWhether Dad loves a good Broadway show, frequents Yankee games, or went to every showing of the "Avengers" movies, this sleeved ticket stub book preserves his favorite memories. A luxury shaving kitHarry'sGift the Harry's Truman Shave Set, $15, available at Harry'sBest for: Dads who love a nice self-care routineThis shave set from Harry's is as sleek as it gets. The kit includes a signature handle with a textured rubber grip, three German-engineered blade cartridges, foaming shave gel for a rich lather, and a travel cover to protect the blades when he's on the move.A set of ski-themed glassesUncommon GoodsGift the Ski Resort Map Glass, $20, available at Uncommon GoodsBest for: Dads who love to skiRemind Dad of his favorite days skiing backcountry on mountains with fresh powder and bright blue skies. If he's really more of a National Parks kind of Dad, there's an equally good option here. A box of goodies tied to his favorite fandomLoot CrateGift a Loot Crate, from $24.99, available at Loot CrateBest for: Dads who belong to fandomsA well-curated gift box, like a geek culture "crate" from Loot Crate, is far from a cop-out. The gift crates contain collectibles and merch related to fandoms like Marvel, "Harry Potter," and "Star Trek," and the under-$25 options contain socks, shirts, and underwear featuring a variety of pop culture icons. A milk frother for perfect lattesAmazonGift the Powerlix Milk Frother, $15.95, available at AmazonBest for: Dads who love coffee a latteWe love this inexpensive milk frother for creating cafe-level drinks at home, and Dad will too. We actually think it's the best overall milk frother you can buy. A moisture-repelling golf capNikeGift the Nike Legacy91 Golf Hat, $20, available at Dick's Sporting GoodsBest for: Dads who will play all 18 holesNike's special Dri-FIT technology keeps his head dry and comfortable under the glaring sun, while the interior sweatband is soft and absorbent. Whether he's on the first or 18th hole, he'll stay cool and collected. A fun, beer-themed planterEtsyGift the IrishGlass Beer Bottle Glass Planters, from $10, available at EtsyBest for: Dads loyal to their brand of beerHere's a unique indoor garden idea: Choose any beer bottle brand you'd like to be cut, sanded, and polished into a unique planter.A card game that'll become his new favoriteAmazonGift the Exploding Kittens Card Game, $19.99, available at AmazonBest for: Dads who live for game nightIf he's a kid at heart who loves kittens, explosions, and laser beams, then he'll love the cult-favorite, Kickstarter sensation of Exploding Kittens. Buying this gift is almost like a gift to yourself since he'll need to enlist multiple players to enjoy the game. Beard oil that reduces flakiness or itchinessOars + AlpsGift the Oars + Alps Cedarwood Forest Beard Oil, $20, available at Oars + AlpsBest for: Bearded dadsContaining nourishing oils like jojoba and argan, this beard oil will revive his scruff in no time. It quickly relieves any flaky, itchy skin under his hair and smells good while doing it. A fresh set of Allbirds lacesAllbirdsGift the Allbirds Runner Lace Kit, $10, available at Allbird'sBest for: Dads with well-worn AllbirdsIf he owns a pair of Allbirds already, a simple lace refresh will make them feel brand new. This kit contains gray, white, and black, but check out its four limited-edition packs with brighter colors. A custom photo bookArtifact UprisingGift the Artifact Uprising 5"x 5" Instagram Photo Book, $14, available at Artifact UprisingBest for: Dads who insist they just want "time with the kids"Bring all your mobile photos with Dad to life in this softcover book that looks like a classy coffee table magazine. It has a textured eggshell cover and interior matte pages, which bring out the best of your favorite memories. Comfy socks specifically designed for golfingBombasGift the Men's Performance Golf Ankle Socks, $16.50, available at BombasBest for: Dads who love to golfSocks are a universally pleasing gift. A cult favorite among direct-to-consumer brands and the Insider Reviews team, Bombas socks offer cushioned support and practicality. This pair is designed especially for performance wear when playing golf.A gift card to see all the summer blockbustersFandangoGift a Fandango Gift Card, from $15, available at FandangoBest for: Dads who love a movie nightNothing beats going to the movies with his kids. If you're unable to make a trip to the local movie theater right now, Fandango gift cards also work for movie and TV show rentals found on simple yet supremely useful money clipLeatherologyGift the Leatherology Money Clip, $30, available at LeatherologyBest for: Dads who have everything elseThis simple but chic full-grain leather clip can hold up to 20 bills. An added plus is that Leatherology will take care of the gift packaging for you for free. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider6 hr. 26 min. ago

Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried just handed $16 million to Super PACs as primaries swing into gear

FTX chief Sam Bankman-Fried, who has urged lawmakers to bring in crypto regulation, has put $31.5 million into super PACS in the current election cycle. Sam Bankman-Fried co-founded the crypto exchange FTX in 2019.FTX Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried ploughed $16 million into super PACs in April.  According to Bloomberg, a hefty $10 million was donated to a pandemic-preventing super PAC.  In total, the FTX chief has given away $31.5 million to super PACs in the current election cycle.  Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried injected $16 million into political outside spending groups in April, Bloomberg reported, in the run-up to the US midterm elections later in the year.Of those donations to super political action committees, $10 million went to Protect Our Future, the report said, citing filings from the Federal Election Commission. The remaining $6 million went to the House Majority PAC, which has links to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Bankman-Fried made the donations to heading into a busy summer season of primary races. Super PACs can raise unlimited funding from backers including individuals and companies, which is then used in candidates' campaigns.The FTX chief executive's latest injection brings his total in this election cycle to as high as $31.5 million, per Bloomberg. That has ended up funding a stream of ads and other promos, leading some to complain that Bankman-Fried is trying to "buy" elections.Protect Our Future, which says it is dedicated to preventing the next pandemic, has spent almost $24 million on campaigns in 2022, according to ProPublica data. It laid out a big chunk of that — $13.5 million — to promote Democrat Carrick Flynn's bid in an Oregon primary, which the former researcher in artificial intelligence lost.Crypto exchange boss Bankman-Fried has urged lawmakers to bring more federal oversight to the crypto industry, given concerns about scams. He believes that better regulation will draw more interest from institutions such as big banks to digital assets.July and August are the busiest months for holding state primaries, though the season runs from March to September, ahead of the elections across 46 states in November.Protect Our Future is not the only super PAC Bankman-Fried has given money to. He has dropped millions of dollars to other committees, including a $5 million contribution to Future Forward, a group that supported Joe Biden's presidential campaign.He ranked 47th among top donors to outside spending groups during the 2020 election cycle and is 27th in 2022 so far, according to OpenSecrets. Read more: Retail traders are getting burned and even big players are taking a hit from tether's limited depeg, according to a crypto prop shop co-founder. Here's the 2 catalysts that could revive retail interest — and a safe haven to turn toRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt7 hr. 26 min. ago

Adviser links: active personalization

Mondays are all about financial adviser-related links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at... PodcastsMichael Kitces talks with Duncan Kelm, managing partner for Arrow Point Wealth Management, about the power of integrated tax planning. ( Crosby talks behavioral design with Kurt Nelson who is president and founder of The Lantern Group. ( Bruno talks with Jim Dickson, founder and CEO of Sanctuary Wealth, about adviser M&A. ( Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Ric Edelman about his new book "The Truth About Crypto: A Practical, Easy-to-Understand Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, NFTs, and Other Digital Assets." ( volatility is making some advisers anxious. ( has raised a new round of capital. ( how different are the financial lives of the childless? ( every client has big, hairy audacious life goals. ( want to know why you became an adviser. ( working with increasingly wealthy clients can affect your outlook on life. ( are still, somewhat, in denial about the new SECURE Act IRA rules. ( laws were designed a long time ago for the traditional, nuclear family. ( helping clients optimize Medicare is important in retirement planning. ( a niche practice takes time. ( is no “safe withdrawal rate.” (»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns8 hr. 14 min. ago

Jared Kushner and Steve Mnuchin cashed in fast on their Trump-era work, raising $3.5 billion from Arab states for private funds, report says

Steve Mnuchin launched Liberty Capital, his own fund, while Jared Kushner launched Affinity Partners, shortly after leaving the Trump White House. Jared Kushner (L) and former Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin (R) seen in the White House on August 13, 2020, in Washington, DC.Brendan Smialowski / AFP Kushner and Mnuchin raised $3.5 billion from Arab states since leaving office, per the NYT. Saudi Arabia put $2 billion and $1 billion respectively into Kushner and Mnuchin's funds, it said. The report said both held meetings with their future investors while working in the White House.  Jared Kushner, former senior advisor to President Donald Trump, and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin raised a combined $3.5 billion from Arab monarchies within six months of leaving the office, The New York Times reported.Shortly after President Donald Trump left office, Mnuchin launched his own fund, Liberty Capital, and Kushner followed soon after, launching Affinity Partners in July.Within six months, Affinity Partners had reportedly secured a $2 billion investment from the Saudi sovereign-wealth fund.Liberty Capital raised more than $1.5 billion from the sovereign-wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, within three months of Mnuchin leaving office, The Times reported.Political commentators and ethics experts were concerned that the investments may be a way for the investors to gain footing with those close to Trump, should he run for and win the 2024 election. Trump is yet to declare whether he will run. The Times reported that Kushner and Mnuchin made a string of visits to the Middle East while still in office, meeting those who would ultimately invest billions in their funds. Kushner made three trips to the Middle East shortly after the November 2020 US election, The Times said, including a January 5 meeting with leaders of the Gulf states in Saudi Arabia.On January 5, 2021, Mnuchin started his own Middle East tour, with scheduled stops with the heads of the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, The Times reported.All three were future investors in his funds.Kushner managed to secure the $2 billion investment from the Saudis despite The Times reporting that fund's internal investor screening board warned against the investment.The board flagged that its background check found that Affinity Partners was "unsatisfactory in all aspects" and that there were "public relations risks" given Kushner was a former senior adviser to Trump, The Times said.But the panel was overruled by the board of the fund, The Times reported. The chairman of the board is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto leader who has formed a close bond with Kushner since 2017.According to The Intercept, Affinity Partner's pitch deck to investors boasted of its strong links to Saudi Arabia, also citing the success of the Abraham Accords, a groundbreaking project founded by Kushner while in office to forge new ties between the UAE, Israel, and the US.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider13 hr. 27 min. ago

Coup against Putin would be triggered if one of his top officials refused to carry out a nuclear strike, Bellingcat expert says

"Because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly," said Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends Orthodox Easter mass in Moscow, Russia, on April 24, 2022.Contributor/Getty Images Putin would face a coup if he orders a nuclear strike and is disobeyed, a Bellingcat expert said. Defying his command would signal insubordination that may lead to "the death of Putin," he said. Some leading Russian officials already believe Putin is losing his grip on power, the expert said. Russian President Vladimir Putin would face a coup if one of his top officials ever disobeyed an order to launch a nuclear strike, according to Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev.The coup would take place if just one of the "five hands" needed for a Russian nuclear launch defied Putin, Grozev told Radio Liberty, per the Metro news outlet."Because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly," he said, the outlet reported.According to Metro, Grozev said Putin may be under pressure from some in his inner circle to escalate the invasion of Ukraine via the mass mobilization of troops or even a nuclear strike. However, the Russian leader must first "be sure everyone along the chain will carry out this order" before he considers sanctioning such a launch, Grozev said, the outlet reported.Per Metro, the investigator said that if one person in the chain of command refused to comply, it would be a "signal of insubordination" that could bring about the "death of Putin.""So until he is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order," Grozev added, per the outlet.It seems likely that leading officials won't follow through with such a command because they believe Putin is losing authority quickly and won't stay in power for three more months, the investigator said, per Metro.To launch a nuclear strike, a decision would need to be made by the Russian president, who always has a small briefcase (or "Cheget") by his side that links him to the country's nuclear forces, Reuters reported citing a 2020 nuclear policy document.While the briefcase doesn't have a launch button, it relays the order to Russia's central military command, per the outlet.Even if Putin decided to launch such an attack, at least two other lead officials would also be needed to follow through with his command.According to several intelligence reports, a nuclear strike can only be carried out if Russia's defence minister and chief of the general staff — positions currently by Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, respectively — also authorize the launch with their own codes and "Cheget" briefcases.Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov attend a meeting in Moscow on February 27, 2022.ALEXEY NIKOLSKY/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty ImagesAccording to the Arms Control Association, Russia claims it has an inventory of 6,257 nuclear warheads, compared with the 5,500 estimated warheads in the US.Last week, Ukraine's military intelligence chief said that a coup against Putin is underway and that the Russian leader is battling cancer. Western intelligence agencies have not publicly verified the claims.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider15 hr. 59 min. ago