Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon Might Be Headed To East Coast

Reuters reported that at least 31 migrants were dead, two are in critical condition, and one is missing. A RNLI (Royal National Lifeboat Institution) lifeboat carrying migrants approaches a beach in Dungeness on the south-east coast of England on November 24, 2021, after they are picked up crossing the English Channel.Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images At least 31 migrants died while trying to cross the English Channel, Reuters said.  Their boat sank off the coast of France while trying to reach the shores of the United Kingdom.  At least 31 migrants died while trying to cross the English Channel and reach the shores of the United Kingdom, Reuters reported on Wednesday.There were 34 people aboard the ship — two are "suffering from severe hypothermia" and one is missing, according to French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, Reuters reported.The identities of the migrants are currently unknown, but the dead include five women and one female child, according to Reuters.Authorities launched a rescue operation near the French coastal city of Calais. Authorities have also arrested four human traffickers for suspected connection with the shipwreck and are investigating "aggravated manslaughter" among other potential charges, AFP reported.As The Washington Post reported, this is shipwreck has resulted in the "largest known loss of life in the Channel" since 2014, when it started counting, but more than 300 people have lost their lives trying to cross the Channel since 1999.The wreck occurred during British and French government attempts to stop migrants from traveling across the channel, NBC News notes.Some compare the channel to the US-Mexico border, according to The Washington Post."Please let this be the moment we provide safe routes to welcome refugees to Britain, instead of endlessly whipping up hate and fear," British MP Zarah Sultana said on Twitter.French Prime Minister Jean Castex on Twitter called the shipwreck is a "tragedy.""My thoughts are with the many missing and injured, victims of criminal smugglers who exploit their distress and misery," he added. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Earlier this year, a Chinese spy balloon was shot down in the US. But it wasn't the first time aerial surveillance was used to spy on other countries. A man is being instructed how to use an aerial camera on a plane during World War II.Culture Club/Getty A Chinese spy balloon in the US is the latest in a long history of governments spying on each other from the sky. Aerial surveillance dates back to the French Revolution to UFO rumors to the Cuban Missile Crisis. It's gone from hot air balloons to CIA gadgets to sophisticated live-streaming drones. Last month, the US government shot down a Chinese spy balloon floating near a South Carolina beach. The Pentagon said it was there gathering intelligence. China said it was doing civilian research. Regardless, it was nothing new. Governments have been spying on each other for hundreds of years. They've used all sorts of techniques, from the German army using pigeon-carrying cameras to the US releasing hundreds of balloons in the hope they would float across the entirety of Russia and get to Japan. Here's how surveillance from the sky has developed over the years.The first record of aerial surveillance happened toward the end of the 18th century. During the Revolutionary War, the French successfully used hot air balloons to monitor combat during the Battle of Fleurus against Britain, Germany, and Holland.A French officer is seen mapping terrain aboard a balloon gondola as he performs aerial reconnaissance before the introduction of aerial cameras in the 1870s.Bettmann/Getty ImagesSources: History.com, Fox5During the Civil War in the US, both sides used balloons to survey battlefields. They got as high as 1,000 feet and were usually tethered so they could be pulled back down and balloonists onboard could convey the intelligence they gathered.A balloon is inflated before being used to watch over a battle known as the Battle of Fair Oaks in 1862.Buyenlarge/Getty ImagesSources: Time, PopSciIn 1903, a German man named Julius Neubronner attached cameras to pigeons so he could figure out where they were flying. His technique would be copied by the German army during World War I.A pigeon with a camera attached to its body in France in 1910.Boyer/Roger Viollet/Getty ImagesInternational Spy Museum historian and curator Dr. Andrew Hammond told Fox5 that despite the novelty of the idea, the "utility of the imagery was limited."Sources: Time, Fox5, Atlas ObscuraAlongside pigeons, hot air balloons continued to play an essential role during World War I. They were used to find enemy locations, direct troops, and aim the artillery.A sergeant of the Royal Flying Corps demonstrates a C type aerial reconnaissance camera fixed to the fuselage of a BE2c aircraft, 1916.Imperial War Museums/Getty ImagesSource: New York TimesScientists worked on improving the spy balloons. One new type used in the war was the "dirigible balloon," designed to get as long as 700 feet long and float up to about 6,000 feet. But what made them so useful was that they were engine-powered and steerable.Passengers aboard a ship below watch a zeppelin crossing the Atlantic Ocean in 1932.Keystone-France/Gamm-Keystone/Getty ImagesSource: GridBoth sides knew how valuable balloons were, so they quickly became targets and were often shot down.Soldiers run away from a burning observation balloon that crashed at Fort Sill in Lawton, Oklahoma, in 1918.Photoquest/Getty ImagesSource: PopSciOne US army pilot named Frank Luke Jr. became known as the "Arizona Balloon Buster" after he shot down 18 German balloons.American World War I fighter ace, Frank Luke Jr (1897 - 1918), with his SPAD S.XIII biplane, France, 18th September 1918.Getty ImagesSource: PopSci, InsiderBy 1935, the technology had developed further. Cameras were now used on planes. Here, an airman uses a rapid-action, automatic aerial camera while flying. It could be used for vertical or oblique shots.An airman using a Fairchild F 14 rapid-action, automatic military aerial camera, circa 1935.FPG/Hulton Archive/Getty ImagesArmies began to set up photographic trailers at different bases, and soldiers even sometimes developed photos in darkrooms onboard planes.Airmen photographers inspect developed reconnaissance film from an aerial camera at a landing ground in Egypt in 1941.Royal Air Force Official Photographer/Imperial War Museums/Getty ImagesSource: History.comIn World War II, the US used untethered blimps called K-ships for surveillance. They were especially useful for finding submarines since they could hover above the sea for long periods, while soldiers watched for any movement in the water below.Two unidentified merchant cargo ships from a convoy as they are escorted by a K-Class patrol blimp in the 1940s.PhotoQuest/Getty ImagesSource: New York TimesAfter World War II, the US focused its aerial surveillance on Russia. Though no one knew it at the time, the first public record of its new mission happened when a balloon crashed into the ground near Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947.Jesse Marcel, a head intelligence officer, holds some of the debris from the “flying disc” crash in Roswell in 1947.Universal History Archive/ Universal Images Group/Getty ImagesThe US government didn't want it known that they were spying on Russia, so it released a statement calling it a "flying disc." But the public thought this meant aliens.In the resulting panic, the government had to change its tune and call it a "weather balloon." But it was actually a high-altitude balloon that had been monitoring audio levels to see if Russia was detonating nuclear bombs. The strange crash and the government's reluctance to explain the truth was one of the reasons the town became known for aliens. The real story wasn't made public until 1994.Sources: PopSci, Washington Post, IndependentIn 1953, the US began the Moby Dick program. Authorized by President Dwight Eisenhower, it was a plan to use balloons to spy on Russia. The US government rated it as its highest priority. The only other project on the same level was the hydrogen bomb.Dwight Eisenhower.AP PhotoThe US had discovered that, thanks to wind currents, balloons would usually float west to east meaning the balloons could be released in Europe and would theoretically float across Russia to be retrieved in Japan.Sources: Sydney Morning Herald, Atlas ObscuraThree years later, the US sent 516 balloons over China, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Each carried a new type of film that would work in freezing temperatures.A Russian colonel during a press conference discussing the US’s tactic of sending balloons over its country.Bettmann/Getty ImagesThe balloons were not exactly subtle. Russia called it a "gross violation" of its air space.The Russian air force soon started shooting them down. About 90% of the balloons either crashed or were shot down, but the US recovered 44 balloons and obtained 13,813 photos from the campaign. It documented a million square miles of Russia and discovered a new nuclear facility in Siberia.Sources: Grid, Sydney Morning HeraldIronically, when Russia took the first ever photo of the moon's dark side, it was taken with the same film it had gotten from one of the crashed balloons.Photograph of the far side of the moon taken by a crew member on Apollo 16 (not the original photo captured by Russia).WOtP on WikipediaSources: Grid, Sydney Morning HeraldIn 1957, the US launched the U-2 plane to replace balloons. During the Cold War, it played a crucial role keeping surveillance on Russia. It could fly at 70,000 feet — double the altitude of what commercial jets fly today — which was too high for Russia to shoot them down.A U-2 plane is photographed at Edwards Air Force Base in 1960.John Bryson/Getty ImagesYet even from such a height, the photos taken by a Hycon 73B camera could catch details of objects as small as 2 and a half feet wide.Sources: History.com, New York Times, History.comIn 1962, it was a U-2 aircraft that was responsible for confirming there were Russian nuclear weapons in Cuba, just 90 miles from the US. This led to the Cuban Missile Crisis.Photographic evidence of ballistic missile base in Cuba which President John F. Kennedy ordered a naval blockade of Cuba in the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.Keystone/Getty ImagesSource: History.comThe U-2 was flown by a US Air Force major named Rudolf Anderson Jr., who flew over the site 13 days later and was shot and killed by Russian missiles.The debris of an American U-2 airplane shot down by the Cubans during the 1962 missile crisis is scattered over the ground.Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone/Getty ImagesHis death escalated the crisis, and within 24 hours, a deal had been offered to Russia which Russia agreed to. Source: History.comFrom the 1950s to the 1970s, the Space Race became a key focus for Russia and the US. The point was to get to space, but it also led to the development of satellite imagery, which changed aerial surveillance forever.One of the first shots of Earth from space taken in 1954, plainly showing the curvature, photographed near the end of the Navy Viking Rocket's trip.Bettmann/Getty ImagesSources: Vice, TimeIn 1958, the US launched a covert operation known as the Corona Project. Officially, it was a space exploration program called the "Discoverer." But in reality, it was once again about spying on Russia.Earth observation from Space Shuttle Discovery showing twin lakes on the Tibetan Plateau north of the country's border with Nepal, Tibet, January 1992.Space Frontiers/Archive Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty ImagesSources: Vice, TimeSatellites were sent into space with a mile and a half of 70mm film.An artist’s sketch of a Corona satellite.National Reconnaissance OfficeSources: Time, New York TimesWhen the film was finished, it was dropped in a heat shield from about 60,000 feet in the sky. A parachute would be released on its descent, and the film would be caught by planes at around 15,000 feet.A plane catches film released from a satellite.National Reconnaissance OfficeSources: Time, New York TimesFrom the outside, the competition was still about getting to space, but the US also got about 850,000 photos of Russia during the 1960s and 1970s as part of the Corona Project.An image of a runway in Russia taken on the first Corona mission in August 1960.National Reconnaissance Office"If we get nothing else from the space program but the photographic satellite, it is worth ten times over the money we've spent," President Lyndon B. Johnson said at the time.Sources: Time, New York TimesOne of the main problems with the early satellites was that they couldn't last long in orbit, so both the US and Russia had to launch new satellites almost every fortnight.A shot showing the interior mechanisms of one of the Corona satellites.National Reconnaissance OfficeBy the early 1980s, developments in technology and a move to digital photography meant they could stay in space for years, though they had to come down to transfer the images. Source: Deutsche WelleIn the 1970s, the CIA built a drone that weighed less than a gram and looked like a dragonfly. It was called the "Insectothopter" and could fly across two football fields in a minute.A shot of the Insectothopter from the 1970s.Central Intelligence AgencyBut that was as good as it got. It never made it out onto the field because it was too easily blown about. The CIA had originally wanted to design the drone to be a bee, but bees fly too erratically so they settled on the dragonfly. Sources: History.com, Eurasian TimesThe first modern drones began appearing in the 1980s in Israel. The Israeli government used drones to watch citizens of interest.People are seen working on an Israeli army spy drone in the 1990s.Jean-Luc Manaud/Gamma-Rapho/Getty ImagesSource: TimeIn 1991, the US used its own drone called the Pioneer during the Gulf War. While these drones were primarily used to convey enemy locations, it also videoed Iraqi soldiers as they surrendered in a historic first.Crew members aboard the battleship USS Wisconsin prepare a Pioneer remotely piloted vehicle for launch during the Gulf War.Corbis/Getty ImagesSources: Time, Baltimore SunIn 1995, General Atomics, a defense contractor based in San Diego, created the Gnat, a remote-controlled drone that carried a video camera. It was later renamed the Predator and was used to capture Osama Bin Laden in 2000.A Predator drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle, takes off on a US Customs Border Patrol mission from Fort Huachuca, Arizona.Ross D. Franklin/APSource: Smithsonian MagazineIn the 21st century, airborne surveillance became even more sophisticated. New technology made it possible for drones to transmit a live-stream from anywhere in the world.A member of US military watches footage from a Predator drone in Afghanistan in 2006.Veronique de Viguerie/Getty ImagesSource: Smithsonian MagazineDespite all of these advances, China doesn't rely on drones for its aerial surveillance. In a case of history repeating itself, China's been using balloons this year to spy on more than 40 countries on five continents.A US Air Force U-2 pilot looks down at a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon as it hovers over the United States on February 3, 2023.Department of Defense/APAccording to Hammond, the reason for this is that it provided "plausible deniability.""If it's a plane with a pilot, and it's got military markings, you can't really say 'that wasn't us," he said. Sources: Fox5, InsiderRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

The Minerva Julie, a Greek tanker, hovered for 7 days, repeatedly passing Nord Stream attack sites, according to a researcher's analysis. Gas bubbles up from a rupture in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on September 27. Nearly six months later, the identity of the saboteurs remains unknown.Swedish Coast Guard via Getty Images Days before the explosions, a tanker called the Minerva Julie was drifting nearby in the Baltic Sea. The ship's curious stopover could interest investigators looking for witnesses. The Julie's owners told Insider that the tanker had stopped "while awaiting her next voyage instructions." The question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines is likely to remain an unsolved mystery for some time.Even as new details surface from European investigators, one of the most intriguing clues to recently emerge comes not from official probes but via a 29-year-old open-source analyst based in Denmark. Oliver Alexander spent months analyzing data from the maritime Automatic Identification System, or AIS, from vessels that passed near the site of three out of the four pipeline ruptures shortly before the damage. He discovered that the Minerva Julie, a 600-foot Greek-flagged tanker, was headed east from Rotterdam when, on September 6, it came to an abrupt stop in the middle of the Baltic Sea.From September 6 through September 13, the Minerva Julie drifted near the site of the September 26 explosions, AIS data show.MarineTraffic with annotations by Insider.The Minerva Julie stayed there, alternately idling and crossing a roughly 200-square-nautical-mile area above the two natural-gas pipelines, for seven days, from September 6 until September 12. From there, the Julie traveled on to Tallinn, Estonia before anchoring at Saint Petersburg, Russia on September 18. Then, on September 26, the two pipelines burst.The coincidence discovered by Alexander has sparked a wave of speculation online among a committed group of amateur sleuths and maritime experts. At the same time, it's difficult to imagine that the official investigators tasked with getting to the truth of the Nord Stream sabotage wouldn't want to know more about the Minerva Julie since the vessel spent a week circling above what was about to become a massive geopolitical crime scene. The data uncovered by Alexander does not indicate that the vessel was in any way involved with the destruction of the pipelines. It does, however, raise the question of what the crew might have witnessed.In an emailed statement to Insider, a spokesperson for Minerva Marine confirmed the Julie's location over the 7-day period, and said that the vessel had stopped "while awaiting her next voyage instructions," in accordance with "standard shipping practice." The statement did not say whether Minerva had been contacted by investigators. It said the company "always been and remains at the disposal of all competent public authorities in respect to any inquiry, acting always in a legitimate and transparent manner."Investigators say the Nord Stream breakage was an act of sabotage, caused by what they've estimated to be hundreds of pounds of military-grade explosives attached to the pipelines at around 80 meters in depth, or roughly 260 feet. The undersea pipelines were financed by a consortium of companies from Russia, Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The pipelines bypassed Ukraine to deliver Russian natural gas directly to Germany.Alexander found that the three explosions, marked below by black darts, occurred almost exactly where the Julie had taken its long pause a few days before. To date, there is no indication that either the Minerva Julie's owners or its crew are the subject of the investigations, which reports suggest are focusing on a rented yacht. —Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) March 7, 2023Insider verified Alexander's findings regarding the Julie's location using MarineTraffic, which compiles global AIS data from the location transponders used by commercial shipping vessels. Not all vessels show up on AIS databases, and the data can be vulnerable to manipulation.European investigators have reportedly linked the pipeline attacks to a rented boat. The yacht, believed to be a 50-foot sailboat equipped with a 75-horsepower engine, is said to have embarked on September 6, the same day the Minerva Julie stopped at the future site of the explosions. Authorities reportedly searched the yacht where they found traces of explosives. On Thursday, Der Spiegel identified that yacht as the Andromeda. Several photos of the Andromeda were posted to Twitter on Thursday by Aric Toler, a researcher at Bellingcat.Among the questions raised by Alexander's discovery of the Minerva Julie's AIS locational data is whether the tanker came into contact with the smaller Andromeda. While floating near the attack site, to northeast of the island of Bornholm, the Julie's pilothouse would likely have had a visibility of roughly 10 to 15 miles. It's unclear whether investigators have obtained the Julie's logbook, navigational charts or radar history, which could have records of activity around the attack sites during that seven-day period. For the Julie to suddenly pause for seven days in the midst of a voyage, immediately above the future attack site, is a striking coincidence, perhaps the most serious case of a vessel being at the wrong place and time since the container ship Ever Given ran aground in the middle of the Suez Canal, blocking traffic for six days in 2021.But an innocuous explanation for the Julie's whereabouts is far from impossible, shipping experts told Insider."Ships don't always go full speed from point A to point B," said Steve Richter, a marine consultant and veteran docking pilot. "For example, if a ship is bound for a refinery in Philadelphia, they might not have a berth available for them. So they might drift slowly to kill time off the coast of Delaware on their way up the coast. At the same time, it is uncommon for a tank ship to stop enroute and sail in a circle, unless they have a change in orders or perhaps a mechanical issue onboard."A second shipping expert told Insider that the Julie could have been awaiting orders about where to go next. "From where I sit, it's likely that there was only one vessel involved in the attack, and hundreds of others in the area," they said. "In other words, there is a large volume of hay. Is this the needle? Could be, but it isn't likely."The Minerva Julie, a 600-foot oil and chemical tanker, near the port of Rotterdam in 2020.Alf van Beem / Wikimedia CommonsThe Julie would be an unlikely choice for saboteurs, as the tanker self-reported its position throughout. And to be sure, the Julie has not been named by any details yet public from the ongoing probes. For Alexander, the close proximity of the Julie to the explosion in both space and time warrants further scrutiny. He he told Insider: "To me, it's too much of a coincidence."Various reports have tried to attribute the attacks to Americans, Russians, Ukrainians, and pro-Ukrainian irregulars. All three countries have denied involvement. After a meeting early last year with the German chancellor, President Joe Biden promised to "bring an end" to the Nord Stream 2, should Russia move ahead with what was then an apparent plan to cross the border into Ukraine, which it did in late February 2022. For now, the best evidence of who was behind the attacks is in the hands of authorities from Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, which all have ongoing investigations into the sabotage.Mattathias Schwartz is a senior correspondent at Insider and a contributing writer at the New York Times Magazine. He can be reached at mschwartz@insider.com and schwartz79@protonmail.com.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

America Misses The Power Objective Authored by Francis Sempa via RealClear Wire, The ideology that drives U.S. policy in Ukraine is eroding our strategic position abroad. On February 20, President Biden made a “surprise” visit to Kyiv, where he announced another half-billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, and stated, “Kyiv stands, Ukraine stands, Democracy stands.” “Americans stand with you,” Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “and the world stands with you.” Biden further remarked that U.S. support for Ukraine is “not just about freedom in Ukraine, it’s about freedom of democracy at large.”   What’s lacking in all of this rhetoric is a reasoned assessment of U.S. national interests in the outcome of the Ukraine War. Some supporters of increased U.S. involvement on Ukraine’s side claim that if we do not stop Putin in Ukraine, some NATO ally will be next—a revival of the “domino theory” and the “lessons of Munich” that contributed significantly to our increased involvement in the Vietnam War. The notion of Putin’s Russia, which has an economy the size of Italy’s and whose armed forces are having a difficult time holding on to two eastern provinces of Ukraine, sweeping across the European plain to the English channel is a fantasy.   Contrast eastern Europe with the western Pacific, where American interests are clearly geopolitical in nature. China has the second-largest economy in the world, a huge reserve of manpower, a strong and ever-growing military power at both the conventional and nuclear levels (including, according to the Pentagon, more ICBM missile silos than the U.S.), and a geopolitical program that seeks to unite huge portions of the Eurasian landmass against the United States. China’s economic and political influence extends across Central Asia and into Africa and the Middle East via the Belt and Road Initiative. Its naval power extends from the East and South China Seas, through the South Sea, and into the Indian Ocean, where it has developed ports called the “String of Pearls” that threaten to outflank southern India. One of America’s top Air Force Generals recently revealed in a leaked memo that China’s Central Military Commission under the leadership of President Xi held a “war council” last October related to Taiwan. And, China recently launched what is being called a “surveillance balloon” across America’s heartland, which U.S. fighters belatedly shot down off the coast of South Carolina after it had traversed the Aleutian Islands, parts of Alaska, Canada, and much of the continental United States. Naval War College Professor James Holmes called this a Chinese “trial balloon” designed to gauge U.S. reaction to this blatant invasion of its airspace. Senator Tom Cotton remarked that the balloon should have been shot down or captured once it was discovered over the Aleutians. American leaders, Holmes writes, need to recognize that China is at war with us all of the time. In the tradition of Sun Tzu and Mao Zedong, China views peacetime as nothing more than “war without bloodshed.” Most troubling of all is the strategic partnership between the two Eurasian giants, which is only gaining strength in response to the foreign policy of the Biden Administration. Therein lies America’s strategic dilemma of pursuing our interests or our values. The two motives of U.S. foreign policy—interests or values—sometimes coincide but often clash. Henry Kissinger, among others, has written about this foreign policy dilemma, most profoundly in his book Diplomacy. Kissinger says that given America’s peculiar domestic political evolution, a foreign policy that ignores one or the other of these motives will eventually lose the support of the American people and therefore become politically unsustainable. Historically when U.S. policymakers have been faced with the dilemma, they have chosen geopolitics over liberal values, even as they have cloaked that choice with value-laden rhetoric. Consider two examples. During the First World War, President Woodrow Wilson publicly promoted the idea of peace without annexations and national self-determination for all peoples, even as he secretly countenanced Great Britain and France carving-up territories in the Middle East. And, during the Second World War, President Franklin Roosevelt publicly promoted the Four Freedoms and a postwar world where peace would be enforced by the United Nations, even as he provided massive aid and military supplies to Stalin’s Soviet regime, the very antithesis of freedom and peace. In both examples, geopolitical interests trumped liberal values but the rhetoric of liberal values persisted. However, one looks in vain to find an American president from George Washington through Theodore Roosevelt who thought it necessary to couch geopolitical interests in the language of liberal values. The late Angelo Codevilla made this the principal theme of his last book America’s Rise and Fall Among Nations. Codevilla highlighted the foreign policy wisdom of George Washington and John Quincy Adams, statesmen who never confused geopolitical interests with liberal values, and who never thought it necessary to disguise hardheaded realism with soft-headed rhetoric. That notion changed in the early twentieth century, when the Progressive Movement introduced and promoted the idea that human nature was perfectible. There is no doubt that George Washington, John Quincy Adams and every other nineteenth century president would have ridiculed this idea as ahistorical and unempirical. When the idea of human perfectibility was translated into foreign policy, the ideology of “democratism” emerged, which held that Western values were universal and should be spread throughout the globe.  Democratism led to related ideas that human rights were universal and that American foreign policy should work to bring about an earthly Utopia. As Robert Nisbet noted in his masterful book The Present Age, “Ever since [Woodrow] Wilson, with only rarest exceptions, American foreign policy has been tuned not to national interests but to national morality.” This idea grew in strength after World War II and perhaps reached its apogee during the presidency of Jimmy Carter. Carter, at least initially, made human rights the centerpiece of his foreign policy, though he applied it more vigorously to America’s allies (the Shah in Iran, Somoza in Nicaragua) than her enemies (the Soviet Union, Cuba). But democratism’s most vigorous champion was President George W. Bush, who reacted to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, by launching a crusade for democracy in the Middle East and southwest Asia. Beyond launching failed wars based on values over interests, the Bush administration supported the further expansion of NATO towards Russia’s borders, including public support for the admission of Georgia and Ukraine to the Western alliance. Bush appeared to be oblivious to traditional notions of spheres of influence, and appeared to be equally oblivious to Russian history. Bush’s successors only compounded the problem by expanding NATO further. A comparison of maps of Europe in 1990 and 2022 reveals the geography of NATO expansion as viewed from Russia, showing, with the lone exception of Belarus, hostile and potentially hostile countries in an arc stretching from Scandinavia to the Balkans and Turkey.    The most strategically significant consequence of America’s unbounded democratism in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century has been to push Russia into the arms of China. The old Sino-Soviet bloc split in the 1960s due to internal rivalries. Richard Nixon’s diplomacy exploited and widened that split. Now, the bloc has effectively reformed—not based on ideology but on geopolitical rivalry with the United States. As Alexander Korolev points out in the feature article in The Diplomat, that Sino-Russian strategic partnership stems not only from the cordial relationship between Xi Jinping and Putin, but from long-term structural trends that have been building since the end of the Cold War. These trends are based on geopolitics, not values. Korolev write that America’s antagonism toward both China and Russia “further contributes to the consolidation of China-Russia alignment” because “[c]onfrontation with both China and Russia results in a convergence of the two countries’ views of the U.S. as their greatest security threat.” Washington’s hostile approach to both Eurasian great powers is a strategic error. The Biden administration has framed both the Ukraine War and China’s actions in the South China Sea as part of a broader ideological competition between democratic and autocratic powers. Somehow, the country that once sided with Josef Stalin to defeat Hitler, and sided with Mao Zedong to help bring down the Soviet empire, is loath to even consider ending or at least softening its hostility to Putin’s Russia in order to lessen China’s strategic threat. This is the triumph of democratism and liberal values over geopolitical interests. Unfortunately, we have been the author of our current strategic dilemma. We have suffered the fate of other great nations who, after achieving victories in great conflicts—in America’s case, the Cold War—approached the rest of the world with hubris and arrogance. During the previous three decades, our foreign policy has helped fuel China’s rise, pushed Russia closer to China, and overextended our commitments and resources in peripheral conflicts that did little or nothing to enhance our security. We have forgotten the wise counsel of perhaps America’s greatest geopolitical thinker Nicholas Spykman, who cautioned:              The statesman who conducts foreign policy can concern               himself with values of justice, fairness, and tolerance only               to the extent that they contribute to or do not interfere               with the power objective. They can be used instrumentally               as moral justification for the power quest, but they must be               discarded the moment their application brings weakness.               The search for power is not made for the achievement of               moral values; moral values are used to facilitate the               attainment of power.    America’s primary geopolitical interest should be to maintain the political pluralism of Eurasia, not foster a closer relationship between the two most powerful Eurasian countries. Francis P. Sempa writes on foreign policy and geopolitics. His Best Defense columns appear at the beginning of each month.  Tyler Durden Tue, 03/07/2023 - 22:05.....»»

UFOs aren't screaming "aliens" to scientists. Close calls in the hunt for extraterrestrials include loud radio blasts and surprise molecules on Venus. Two people dressed as extraterrestrials with aluminum foil costumes walk in the streets near the Peak of Bugarach, in France.Jean-Philippe Arles/Reuters Extraterrestrial life could exist, but mysterious objects in the sky aren't evidence of aliens. Scientists have thought they were close to discovering alien life a few times — none of it via UFOs. Alien close-calls include an object flying through our solar system and signals from the distant cosmos. Alien theorists have been going wild on the internet, but scientists aren't on board.As the US discovered a flurry of UFOs — officially called "unidentified anomalous phenomena," or UAPs — in early February, Google searches for "extraterrestrial life" and "are aliens real" spiked. The Associated Press reported that online posts mentioning extraterrestrials increased by nearly 300% after the first object was identified as a balloon from China. Even Elon Musk weighed in with an alien joke.The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina.Randall Hill/ReutersMost recently, a mysterious giant metal ball washed up on the shores of Japan, inspiring new online rumors.No scientific research has suggested that any of these mystery objects belong to aliens (though NASA is working on its own framework for assessing UFO incidents). No prominent scientists have come forward to cry "aliens" either.There have been incidents in the past where some researchers thought they'd come close to discovering signs of alien life — or even extraterrestrial intelligence — but none were UFOs.Here are the mysteries that have really made scientists think they found aliens.A radio blast from the cosmos that made alien hunters go 'Wow!'The Allen Telescope Array, designed specifically for radio-based SETI projects.Seth Shostak/SETI InstituteOne of the first deliberate searches for extraterrestrial intelligence nearly struck gold in 1977, when the Big Ear radio telescope at Ohio State University picked up a sudden, strong signal.It was 30 times louder than the background noise and, unlike natural radio sources like quasars, it only hit one frequency on the radio spectrum.Astronomer Jerry Ehman first spotted it as he flipped through pages of data, and he made a notation beside the sudden jump in numbers: "Wow!"The famous — or infamous — "Wow!" signal detected in 1977.Big Ear Radio Observatory and North American AstroPhysical ObservatoryEnthusiasts of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) speculated that the Wow! signal came from an alien technology. Ehman himself remained skeptical.Nobody ever heard the Wow! signal again, though astronomers combed the skies to pick it back up. It's still not clear what caused it.The first interstellar object: Shiny rock, or alien space junk?Artist's impression of 'Oumuamua.ESO/M. KornmesserIn 2017, for the first time ever, astronomers confirmed that an object zipping past the sun had come from beyond our solar system.They dubbed the first interstellar object 'Oumuamua, which is a Hawaiian term meaning "a messenger from afar arriving first."The interstellar visitor was shaped like a cigar. It was about 10 times more reflective than asteroids in our solar system. Most curiously, as it zoomed away from the sun, it sped up faster than it should have based on the pure physics of its trajectory.All this led Avi Loeb, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, to conclude that aliens could have manufactured the object. He published a paper arguing that 'Oumuamua had an "artificial origin," and may have been an adrift, defunct spacecraft from an alien civilization, with a light sail that uses solar energy to accelerate.Other astronomers argued against his theory, saying that observations of 'Oumuamua are "consistent with a purely natural origin."A false alarm in the clouds of VenusVenus and its thick clouds, as imaged by NASA's Mariner 10 mission.Kevin M. Gill/NASA/JPL-CaletechThe gas phosphine isn't very impressive on Earth, but when scientists found traces of it in the clouds of Venus, it was a big deal.That's because, on Earth, the garlicky, fish-smelling phosphine comes from microbes. Venus's surface is too hellish to be habitable, but its clouds could be mild enough to harbor communities of microbial life, scientists speculated after the blockbuster study published in the journal Nature Astronomy in 2020.But that discovery has been mired in controversy after independent reanalysis found issues with the data. NASA tried to confirm the existence of phosphine in Venus's atmosphere, and found none.Fast, repeating radio signals are still befuddling scientistsA superdense neutron star, the remains of a supernova explosion, as captured by three NASA observatories.NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/CXC/Univ. of Ariz./Univ. of SzegedSomewhere beyond our galaxy, mysterious entities have been sending out bright bursts of radio waves. They last only a millisecond, and some of them repeat at regular intervals.These "fast radio bursts," or FRBs, have perplexed scientists since 2007, when the first one was detected.Though most astronomers who study FRBs believe they have a natural cause, Loeb was once again unafraid to say he thought it was alien technology.One FRB has been traced back to a magnetar — a dead star with an extremely powerful magnetic field, which causes explosions of energy.Bubbly Mars dirt hinted at live microbesA model of NASA's Viking Mars lander.NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of ArizonaGilbert Levin was an engineer working on a Mars life-detection experiment with NASA's Viking mission in 1976. He wrote in Scientific American in 2019 that he still believes his experiment discovered signs of life on the red planet.The instrument dunked Mars dirt in a broth and waited for bubbles, which could indicate microbial respiration. It got positive results at both of its test sites near the Viking lander, but the mission failed to detect organic material to support the results."The collective general opinion of the large majority of the scientific community does not believe the results of the Viking experiments alone rise to the level of extraordinary evidence," Allard Beutel, a NASA spokesperson, told The Daily Beast in response to Levin's claims in 2019.He was likely referring to Carl Sagan's famous words, which apply to any potential alien discovery: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

UFOs aren't screaming "aliens" to scientists. Close calls in the hunt for extraterrestrials include loud radio blasts and surprise molecules on Venus. Two people dressed as extraterrestrials with aluminum foil costumes walk in the streets near the Peak of Bugarach, in France.Jean-Philippe Arles/Reuters Extraterrestrial life could exist, but mysterious objects in the sky aren't evidence of aliens. Scientists have thought they were close to discovering alien life a few times — none of it via UFOs. Alien close-calls include an object flying through our solar system and signals from the distant cosmos. Alien theorists have been going wild on the internet, but scientists aren't on board.As the US discovered a flurry of UFOs — officially called "unidentified anomalous phenomena," or UAPs — in early February, Google searches for "extraterrestrial life" and "are aliens real" spiked. The Associated Press reported that online posts mentioning extraterrestrials increased by nearly 300% after the first object was identified as a balloon from China. Even Elon Musk weighed in with an alien joke.The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina.Randall Hill/ReutersMost recently, a mysterious giant metal ball washed up on the shores of Japan, inspiring new online rumors.No scientific research has suggested that any of these mystery objects belong to aliens (though NASA is working on its own framework for assessing UFO incidents). No prominent scientists have come forward to cry "aliens" either.There have been incidents in the past where some researchers thought they'd come close to discovering signs of alien life — or even extraterrestrial intelligence — but none were UFOs.Here are the mysteries that have really made scientists think they found aliens.A radio blast from the cosmos that made alien hunters go 'Wow!'The Allen Telescope Array, designed specifically for radio-based SETI projects.Seth Shostak/SETI InstituteOne of the first deliberate searches for extraterrestrial intelligence nearly struck gold in 1977, when the Big Ear radio telescope at Ohio State University picked up a sudden, strong signal.It was 30 times louder than the background noise and, unlike natural radio sources like quasars, it only hit one frequency on the radio spectrum.Astronomer Jerry Ehman first spotted it as he flipped through pages of data, and he made a notation beside the sudden jump in numbers: "Wow!"The famous — or infamous — "Wow!" signal detected in 1977.Big Ear Radio Observatory and North American AstroPhysical ObservatoryEnthusiasts of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) speculated that the Wow! signal came from an alien technology. Ehman himself remained skeptical.Nobody ever heard the Wow! signal again, though astronomers combed the skies to pick it back up. It's still not clear what caused it.The first interstellar object: Shiny rock, or alien space junk?Artist's impression of 'Oumuamua.ESO/M. KornmesserIn 2017, for the first time ever, astronomers confirmed that an object zipping past the sun had come from beyond our solar system.They dubbed the first interstellar object 'Oumuamua, which is a Hawaiian term meaning "a messenger from afar arriving first."The interstellar visitor was shaped like a cigar. It was about 10 times more reflective than asteroids in our solar system. Most curiously, as it zoomed away from the sun, it sped up faster than it should have based on the pure physics of its trajectory.All this led Avi Loeb, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, to conclude that aliens could have manufactured the object. He published a paper arguing that 'Oumuamua had an "artificial origin," and may have been an adrift, defunct spacecraft from an alien civilization, with a light sail that uses solar energy to accelerate.Other astronomers argued against his theory, saying that observations of 'Oumuamua are "consistent with a purely natural origin."A false alarm in the clouds of VenusVenus and its thick clouds, as imaged by NASA's Mariner 10 mission.Kevin M. Gill/NASA/JPL-CaletechThe gas phosphine isn't very impressive on Earth, but when scientists found traces of it in the clouds of Venus, it was a big deal.That's because, on Earth, the garlicky, fish-smelling phosphine comes from microbes. Venus's surface is too hellish to be habitable, but its clouds could be mild enough to harbor communities of microbial life, scientists speculated after the blockbuster study published in the journal Nature Astronomy in 2020.But that discovery has been mired in controversy after independent reanalysis found issues with the data. NASA tried to confirm the existence of phosphine in Venus's atmosphere, and found none.Fast, repeating radio signals are still befuddling scientistsA superdense neutron star, the remains of a supernova explosion, as captured by three NASA observatories.NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/CXC/Univ. of Ariz./Univ. of SzegedSomewhere beyond our galaxy, mysterious entities have been sending out bright bursts of radio waves. They last only a millisecond, and some of them repeat at regular intervals.These "fast radio bursts," or FRBs, have perplexed scientists since 2007, when the first one was detected.Though most astronomers who study FRBs believe they have a natural cause, Loeb was once again unafraid to say he thought it was alien technology.One FRB has been traced back to a magnetar — a dead star with an extremely powerful magnetic field, which causes explosions of energy.Bubbly Mars dirt hinted at live microbesA model of NASA's Viking Mars lander.NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of ArizonaGilbert Levin was an engineer working on a Mars life-detection experiment with NASA's Viking mission in 1976. He wrote in Scientific American in 2019 that he still believes his experiment discovered signs of life on the red planet.The instrument dunked Mars dirt in a broth and waited for bubbles, which could indicate microbial respiration. It got positive results at both of its test sites near the Viking lander, but the mission failed to detect organic material to support the results."The collective general opinion of the large majority of the scientific community does not believe the results of the Viking experiments alone rise to the level of extraordinary evidence," Allard Beutel, a NASA spokesperson, told The Daily Beast in response to Levin's claims in 2019.He was likely referring to Carl Sagan's famous words, which apply to any potential alien discovery: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A top Pentagon official told reporters that they can "confirm the photo's authenticity" after it began circulating online. A U-2 over the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California in March 2016.US Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Robert M. Trujillo) A US Air Force pilot took a selfie with the Chinese spy balloon before it was shot down. The Pentagon confirmed the photo's authenticity after it began circulating online this week. The pilot, flying a U-2 spy aircraft, took the image a day before the balloon was downed by an F-22. A US Air Force pilot managed to capture a selfie with a high-altitude Chinese surveillance balloon the day before it was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean earlier this month, the Pentagon confirmed on Wednesday. A U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane under US Northern Command authority was sent to monitor the balloon as it flew over the continental US during the final days of January and into early February. A pilot took a picture of the balloon from the cockpit, and it began circulating online earlier this week. Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters at a Wednesday briefing that she can "confirm the photo's authenticity, and we are planning to release it," when asked about the selfie. Insider obtained a copy of the selfie from the Air Force, which said the photo was taken over the "Central Continental" US on February 3, a day before it was shot down by an F-22 Raptor off the coast of South Carolina.  The image has since been released on the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service.A US Air Force pilot looks down at the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon as it hovers over the central continental US on February 3.Photo courtesy of the Department of DefenseThe U-2's involvement in gathering intelligence on the spy balloon was first reported by The Drive on February 6. CNN later reported two days later that the selfie actually existed. Officials told the outlet that the photo had "already gained legendary status" at NORAD and in the Pentagon.Dragon Lady Today obtained the image and published it on February 21, a day before the US military confirmed its authenticity.U-2 spy planes are single-seat aircraft that can provide surveillance and reconnaissance from extremely high altitudes at over 70,000 feet. Because of this, pilots typically wear full-pressure suits like those worn by astronauts. The plane first flew in 1955, but it has been upgraded throughout its service life. The 33 in service now were built in the 1980s.A balloon flies in the sky over Billings, Montana, on February 1, 2022.Chase Doak/via REUTERSIt's unclear where, exactly, the selfie was taken. Senior US defense officials previously said the balloon entered Alaskan airspace on January 28 before entering Canada's airspace two days later and reentering US airspace on January 31 over the Pacific Northwest. The balloon then traveled southeast across the country before it was shot down on February 4 by an F-22, an fifth-generation stealth fighter, using a single AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missile, sending the system plummeting into the Atlantic Ocean from an altitude of over 60,000 feet.US sailors recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on February 5.Petty Officer 1st Class Tyler ThompsonThe US military, including the Coast Guard, worked with federal and local law-enforcement agencies to recover the remains of the balloon and its payload, which US officials said carried intelligence-gathering equipment.The search was concluded on February 16, and Singh told reporters Wednesday that "the majority of the balloon, including the payload, was recovered."This incident stoked tensions between Washington and Beijing, which US officials say has been operating a global network of similar spy balloons for years. The program has sent balloons over 40 countries across five continents, a State Department official said on February 9."We know these balloons are all part of a PRC fleet of balloons developed to conduct surveillance operations," the State Department official added, referring to the People's Republic of China. "These kinds of activities are often undertaken at the direction of the People's Liberation Army."US Air Force fighter jets downed three unidentified objects in North American airspace in three engagements on February 10, 11, and 12. Officials have yet to reveal what the objects were, but President Joe Biden said last week that they were not related to any country's surveillance program and were most likely civilian objects. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Inside China's Military Balloon Program Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Years before a gigantic white spy balloon from China captured America’s attention, a top Chinese aerospace scientist was keenly tracking the path of an unmanned airship making its way across the globe. Chinese home-made airship AS700 takes off for a test flight at Jingmen Zhanghe Airport in Jingmen, Hubei Province of China, on Sept. 16, 2022. (Shen Ling/VCG via Getty Images) On a real-time map, the white blimp appeared as a blinking red dot, although in real life its size was formidable, weighing several tons and measuring 328 feet (100 meters) in length—about 80 feet longer than a Boeing 747-8, one of the largest passenger aircraft in the world. “Look, here’s America,” the vessel’s chief architect, Wu Zhe, told the state-run newspaper Nanfang Daily. He excitedly pointed to a red line marking the airship’s journey at about 65,000 feet in the air, noting that in 2019, that flight was setting a world record. Named “Cloud Chaser,” the airship had been flying for just shy of a month over three oceans and three continents, including what appears to be Florida. At the time of Wu’s interview in August, the airship was hovering above the Pacific Ocean, days away from completing its mission. An illustration of Cloud Chaser. (Nanfang Daily) Wu, a veteran aerospace researcher, has played a key role in advancing the Chinese regime in what it describes as the “near space” race, referring to the layer of the atmosphere sitting between 12 and 62 miles above the earth. This region, which is too high for jets but too low for satellites, had been deemed ripe for exploitation in the regime’s bid to achieve military dominance. Despite having existed for decades, the regime’s military balloon program came into the spotlight recently when the United States shot down a high-altitude surveillance balloon that drifted across the country for a week and hovered above multiple sensitive U.S. military sites. That balloon, the size of three buses, was smaller than Cloud Chaser. The U.S. and Canadian militaries have since taken down three flying objects over North American airspace, although President Joe Biden on Feb. 16 said those are likely linked to private companies. The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, S.C., on Feb. 4, 2023. (Randall Hill/Reuters) Wu is turning 66 this month. He has ties to at least four of the six Chinese entities Washington recently sanctioned for supporting Beijing’s sprawling military balloon program, which the U.S. administration said has reached over 40 countries on five continents. As a specialist in aircraft design, Wu has helped develop the Chinese regime’s homegrown fighter jets and stealth technology during his more than three decades in the aerospace field, taking home at least one award for his contribution to the military. He was the vice president at Beihang University in Beijing, a prestigious state-run aeronautics school, until he voluntarily gave up the title for teaching and research in 2004, and he once served on the scientific advisory committee for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Armaments Department, a now-dissolved agency in charge of equipping the Chinese military. Public records show that Wu is well-connected in the aerospace field, with stakes in many aviation firms. He is the chairman of Beijing-based Eagles Men Aviation Science, one of the six firms that, along with its branch in Shanxi, Washington has named as culprits in the balloon sanctions. Both Beihang and the Harbin Institute of Technology, Wu’s alma mater and dubbed “China’s MIT,” are on a U.S. trade blacklist, the former for aiding China’s military rocket and unmanned air vehicle systems, and the latter for using U.S. technology to support Chinese missile programs. ‘Silent Killer’ The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long vied for dominance in near space, which Chinese scientists see as a region for a variety of applications, from high-altitude balloons to hypersonic missiles. From high above, there’s a wealth of information that an aerostat, equipped with an electronic surveillance system, can intercept and turn into an intelligence asset. “If you’re flying a balloon that is 100,000 feet up in the air, you’ve got … visibility on the ground of hundreds and hundreds of miles over several states, because it’s up so high,” said Art Thompson, co-founder of California aerospace company Sage Cheshire Aerospace. During his three decades in the aerospace industry, Thomspon has worked on the B-2 stealth bomber and was technical director for the Red Bull Stratos project that broke the record for the highest balloon flight and the largest manned balloon. Art Thompson, CEO of Sage Cheshire and president of A2ZFX, sits inside a model capsule he built for Red Bull Stratos in Lancaster, Calif., on Aug. 13, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times) “Whether it’s phone data, radio data, transmissions from aircraft, as to what the airplanes are, who owns it, all that data is available,” Thompson said. As early as the 1970s, efforts were underway at the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences to explore high-altitude balloons, according to a state media report. Lacking the aid of computers, Chinese researchers drew inspiration from German and Japanese aerospace books and cut up newspapers to piece together prototypes. The result was a helium balloon with an aluminum basket, altogether about the size of a typical hot air balloon. The team triumphantly named it HAPI and flew it into the stratosphere in 1983 to observe signals from a neutron star. For the Chinese military, there’s high strategic value in aerostats, a technology that was in use as early as the late 1700s by the French as lookouts. Compared to airplanes or satellites, balloons are cheaper and easier to maneuver, can carry heavier payloads and cover a wider area, and are harder to detect, two regular columnists wrote in a 2021 article for PLA Daily, the Chinese military’s official newspaper. They consume less energy, allowing them to loiter in a target area for an extended period. And critically, they are often not caught by radars, so they can easily evade an enemy’s air defense system or be classified as UFOs. Read more here... Tyler Durden Sat, 02/18/2023 - 22:30.....»»

Mystery flying objects shot down from US skies aren't aliens. But if extraterrestrial life is real, NASA could discover evidence in your lifetime. A time-lapse of the Milky Way Galaxy as seen from the International Space Station.NASA/Kjell Lindgren UFOs (or UAPs) shot down over North America probably aren't aliens, but that hasn't stopped rumors. Extraterrestrial life likely wouldn't show up as flying objects, but finding it could cause similar chaos. NASA's greatest challenge could be explaining any alien discovery to the public, the agency's planetary-science chief said. NASA isn't announcing the existence of extraterrestrial life. But if the last two weeks show anything, it's if the agency ever breaks such news, the world may have trouble understanding.The latest UFO mania started with the "Chinese spy balloon" flying across the US. China's government has insisted it was just a weather balloon that blew off course. The US military shot it down off the coast of South Carolina, later saying the balloon was part of a global network Beijing uses to collect surveillance on other militaries.The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina.Randall Hill/ReutersSuddenly the US seemed to be spotting UFOs (which the Department of Defense now refers to as "unidentified anomalous phenomena," or UAPs) everywhere.By Sunday, US fighter jets had gunned down three more mysterious "objects" in the skies over Alaska, Canada, and Lake Huron.There's no evidence that these UFOs — sorry, UAPs — are alien technology from space. Still, speculation abounds.Google searches for "extraterrestrial life" and "are aliens real" spiked. The Associated Press reported that online posts mentioning extraterrestrials increased by nearly 300% after the first balloon. Even Elon Musk weighed in with an alien joke.A woman looks at a UFO display outside of the Little A'Le'Inn, in Rachel, Nevada.AP Photo/John Locher, File"I know there have been questions and concerns about this, but there is no — again, no — indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns," Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said at a briefing on Monday, adding: "It was important for us to say that from here because we've been hearing a lot about it."The breathless rumors are just a peek at what Lori Glaze, who leads NASA's planetary science division, might face should scientists ever discover true evidence of life beyond Earth.An apparently unidentified object detected on a Navy plane’s infrared camera.US Department of Defense/Navy Times"You can't overstate just how important that discovery would be. How we're going to confirm that and announce it responsibly, I think is a really, really important question," Glaze told Insider at the American Geophysical Union's meeting in December."The biggest challenge is trying to keep that communication on an even keel, right? With an excitement, and yet also understanding that we need to set the expectations that we have to follow the scientific process."How NASA scientists might explain any alien findings — graduallyNASA’s Perseverance Mars rover took this selfie on September 10, 2021.NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSSMaybe the James Webb Space Telescope detects a telltale molecule in the atmosphere of a distant Earth-like planet. Maybe Mars samples from the Perseverance rover reach Earth in a decade, and scientists find fossils of ancient microbes inside them.Many astrobiologists (exactly what it sounds like — people who study the idea of biology beyond Earth) think that evidence of extraterrestrial life could turn up soon.But it's unlikely that any evidence would be completely, irrefutably, obviously aliens. Scientists will probably disagree, and won't be 100% confident. That could be hard to explain to the public.Two people dressed as extra-terrestrials with aluminum foil costumes walk in the streets near the Peak of Bugarach, in France.Jean-Philippe Arles/Reuters"This is going to be a very, very hard thing to actually get the scientific community, I think, to agree upon — unless we actually see something moving around and waving at us, which is unlikely," Glaze told Insider.That's why NASA has tried to develop a procedure for assessing and sharing such a monumental, sensitive discovery. The conversation is still ongoing, Glaze said, but in 2021, the agency published a framework as a starting point. It could help scientists, journalists, and NASA itself explain the science.It's called the "confidence of life detection" (CoLD) scale, rating scientific confidence in any potential alien-life discovery on a scale of one to seven. A possible detection can climb to higher levels of confidence as evidence builds.An illustration of the CoLD scale for determining confidence in a detection of alien life.NASA/Aaron GronstalFor example, a level one detection might be the discovery of a molecule that could be related to life inside a Perseverance Mars sample. The evidence would graduate to level two once scientists confirm there was no contamination in the sample, or the instruments involved, that could have influenced their findings. By ruling out non-biological sources of the molecule, or by confirming that it came from an environment suitable for life, scientists could move it further up the scale.Other scientific teams would have to measure the Mars sample themselves, with different methods, and confirm the initial finding to graduate to level six.According to NASA, in this Mars molecule example, additional evidence from a different part of the red planet may be necessary to bring it up to level seven — where it's probably life.Each new level of confidence could mean a new public announcement.The discovery of extraterrestrial life is likely to be a slow build-up, rather than an explosive eureka moment."Until now, we have set the public up to think there are only two options: it's life or it's not life," Mary Voytek, head of NASA's Astrobiology Program, said in a press release when the new scale was published. "We need a better way to share the excitement of our discoveries, and demonstrate how each discovery builds on the next, so that we can bring the public and other scientists along on the journey."The president or other countries could be involved in announcing extraterrestrial life existsPresident Joe Biden speaks at Delaware State University.Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesAnnouncing the existence of alien life would be an "administration-level" affair, Glaze said, referring to the US presidency. It wouldn't just be NASA explaining itself at press conferences.NASA might not even be the first entity to discover evidence of life on another planet. Another nation's space agency could find it first.A Chinese Long March 5 Y-4 rocket lifts off, carrying a mission to Mars.Carlos Garcia Rawlins/ReutersThe discovery of intelligent alien life would be even more Earth-shattering. That would come with its own conundrums: How do we communicate with them? What do we say? And how might they respond?Even beaming little hints of ourselves into the void has been controversial. In 1974, astronomers sent out radio signals containing the numbers one through 10, information about the composition and structure of DNA, a figure of a human and our global population, and a graphic of the solar system with Earth highlighted.Critics like Stephen Hawking have said that contacting any extraterrestrial intelligence could pose an existential risk for humanity.Needless to say, any discovery of alien life would likely lead to chaos — at least in public discourse.Glaze said NASA's goal is to be a trusted, transparent source of clear scientific information. It could be the agency's biggest challenge yet."I'm not sure we even have words to describe it," she said. "The confirmation that we're not alone in the universe is, I think, going to be akin to realizing that the universe doesn't rotate around Earth. It's a very different way of thinking about who we are, where we came from."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Former officials who received a briefing included Mike Pompeo, John Ratcliffe, Robert O'Brien, and John Bolton, NBC reported and a source confirmed for Insider. Former President Donald Trump (left) and a suspected Chinese spy balloon before it was shot down off the coast of Garden City, South Carolina, on February 4, 2023.Joe Raedle/Getty Images/Travis Huffstetler/Handout via Reuters The Biden administration has briefed key former Trump administration officials on China's spy balloons. An official said the balloons traversed US airspace while Trump was in office. He has denied that. Former officials who received a briefing included Mike Pompeo, John Ratcliffe, Robert O'Brien, and John Bolton. The Biden administration has briefed key former Trump administration officials on China's spy balloons, which an official said traversed US airspace while the ex-president was in office.Donald Trump has said that never happened.Former officials who received a briefing included former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former National Intelligence Director John Ratcliffe, former national security adviser Robert O'Brien, as well as former national security adviser John Bolton, NBC reported and a national intelligence director's office spokesperson confirmed for Insider.The spokesperson did not immediately respond when asked whether Trump has or will receive a briefing.The Biden administration discovered Chinese spy balloon incursions "at least on three occasions" during the Trump administration while carrying out a broad assessment of Chinese intelligence capabilities that Biden ordered when he first came into office, according to White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.China's high-altitude spy balloon program "was operating during the previous administration, but they did not detect it,"  Kirby said on Monday"We detected it," he said.  "We tracked it.  And we have been carefully studying it to learn as much as we can."Trump called that "disinformation" in an interview with Fox News Digital."It never happened with us under the Trump administration and if it did, we would have shot it down immediately," he said on Sunday.The US military shot down a Chinese spy balloon over the Atlantic Ocean on February 4, a week after it first entered US airspace, and has since downed three other unidentified objects that officials say may have been "benign."Bolton tweeted on Wednesday that he remains "profoundly troubled" by the Biden administration's handling of the incidents after meeting with intelligence community officials for about an hour. He referenced "recent balloon/"object" incidents," but nothing from the Trump administration.—John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) February 15, 2023Ratcliffe tweeted that the briefing confirmed his prior statements "regarding the unprecedented, alarming scope and gravity of the Chinese spycraft incursion."During a February 6 briefing, Kirby told reporters that the Chinese surveillance balloons transited US airspace "for brief periods of time" during the Trump administration. It was "nothing at all" like what happened in recent weeks in terms of duration, Kirby said then.Biden officials reached out to key officials from the Trump administration to offer briefings on the forensics they did."And we expressed our willingness to walk them through what we learned," he said then. "We did that in good faith."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A U.S. F-22 fighter jet on Friday shot down an unidentified object flying high over Alaska. This happened a week after U.S. military brought down a Chinese spy balloon. The U.S. military shot down a suspected Chinese 'spy' balloon off the Carolina coast in early February after it crossed sensitive military areas across North America. China claimed that the overpass was an accident. China also responded that it reserved the right to “take further actions” and criticized the U.S. for “an obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.”A week after, again President Joe Biden ordered the Pentagon to shoot down an unidentified "high-altitude object" off Alaska on Friday. The car-sized object, which was unable to move, “posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight,” the White House said.Then, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau announced that an unidentified object was shot down in its airspace on Saturday. If these were not enough, President Joe Biden ordered yet another unidentified object to be downed near Lake Huron, in the vicinity of the Canadian border, on Sunday afternoon, indicating the fourth such aerial invasion into North American airspace this month.The U.S. Commerce Department already announced a new round of sanctions last Friday against six Chinese aerospace companies as those are identified as supporting China’s military’s reconnaissance balloon program. No wonder, such incidents are likely to worsen the relationship between North America and China in the coming days.Following are the ETF areas that are at risk amid escalating tensions between the United States (as well as Canada) and China.ChinaChinese markets are likely to underperform in reaction to the conflict. China ETFs like iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI, China A iShares MSCI ETF CNYA and CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF (AFTY) are likely to come under pressure. China’s technology sector is especially likely to suffer as more U.S. sanctions may be in the cards. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) should thus be under close watch.CasinoU.S. casino companies like Wynn Resorts WYNN and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) have considerable exposure to China. Along with these stocks, the casino gaming ETF VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF BJK should thus suffer.AgricultureNotably, China purchases about half of the U.S. soybean and is the second-largest buyer of American cotton. So, Teucrium Soybean ETF SOYB and the broader agriculture ETF Invesco DB Agriculture DBA may face risks.SemiconductorU.S. chipmakers also have huge sales exposure to China. So, renewed tensions with China could bring back pain in the semiconductor space. iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX is thus in a vulnerable position.Dow Jones & IndustrialsSince the tensions may leave a significant negative impact on the industrial and manufacturing sector, such stocks may slump. U.S. aerospace giant Boeing is striving to revive its business in China but faces stiff competitive headwinds from France’s Airbus and the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). Boeing has good exposure to SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA and aerospace ETFs like iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA. Hence, these ETFs may fall prey to the latest aerial conflict.   Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN): Free Stock Analysis Report SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI): ETF Research Reports iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): ETF Research Reports Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA): ETF Research Reports VanEck Gaming ETF (BJK): ETF Research Reports Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (DBA): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI China A ETF (CNYA): ETF Research ReportsTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Back in 2009, MIT solved the hunt in less than seven hours using some techniques recognizable from multi-level marketing schemes. On December 5, 2009, in less than seven hours, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Red Balloon Challenge Team found all ten balloons.DARPA The Pentagon's DARPA group once challenged people to find 10 giant red balloons across the US. The 2009 challenge involved using the internet and social media to request tips from people. MIT won the $40,000 prize in 7 hours by creating monetary incentives for recruiting participants. The Pentagon once hid 10 giant red balloons across the US, offering $40,000 to whoever located them all — and a group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology won the 2009 competition in less than seven hours.The competition was put on by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) on December 5, 2009.Popular Science reported at the time that the MIT group won by creating monetary incentives similar to a multi-level marketing scheme for help finding the balloons: $2000 per balloon to the first person with correct location coordinates, $1000 to whoever recruited the person, $500 to whoever recruited the recruiter, and $250 to the recruiter of the recruiter. The last $250 reportedly went to charity. In an online post describing the event. DARPA said the Network Challenge was designed to mark the 40th anniversary of the invention of the internet. Participants sought information from people across the web, requesting tips and leads about where the eight-foot balloons were located. Those locations included Union Square in San Francisco, Collins Avenue in Miami, Lee Park in Memphis, Tennessee, and Katy Park in Katy, Texas, Popular Science reported.The competition "explored the roles that the Internet and social networking play in the timely communication, wide-area team-building, and urgent mobilization required to solve broad-scope, time-critical problems," DARPA said.For some participants, false tips were difficult to sift through. MIT Media Lab Postdoctoral Human Dynamics researcher Riley Crane, who led MIT's successful group, told Popular Science. "It became clear early on that there were a lot of people submitting false information. That was definitely the biggest challenge," Crane told the magazine.Peter Lee, the director of DARPA's Transformational Convergence Technology Office, told Popular Science that one of the goals was to see how teams navigated unverified information on online social networks."The general question was the establishment of trust in adversarial situations in social networks," he told the magazine.Popular Science reported that some teams repeatedly guessed locations hoping that some coordinates would stick, while community sites like Fark relied on smaller groups of verified individuals to locate any suspected balloons. Twitter also proved to be useful for the challenge, allowing quick and widespread conversation about the possible locations of the balloons, Popular Science reported. As the challenge went viral, more people wanted to be involved. Part of that viral-ness, especially for MIT, might have been thanks to their recruitment strategy. The monetary incentive to invite others to be involved in the balloon hunt is reminiscent of a pyramid scheme business model.But Crane told Popular Science that MIT's strategy focused more on creating a trusted team with goals of helping themselves, science, and charity. "Your reward was directly based on whether you were responsible for getting us key information," Crane said. "It didn't matter if you were the first or millionth to sign up. What mattered was whether you found a balloon, or if you signed up someone who found a balloon."DARPA said that MIT found all 10 balloons in less than seven hours.In the last two weeks, the US has been dealing with issues surrounding a number of unknown flying objects.It all started when a suspected Chinese spy balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina. Since then, the US has shot down unknown floating objects over Lake Michigan and Alaska. Unidentified objects have also been seen in Canada and Latin America this month.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Futures Rebound, Trade Near Session Highs Amid Global UFO Hullaballoon US index futures reversed an earlier drop and traded near session highs as traders braced for inflation data that will may support the Fed’s commitment to further policy tightening (or it may not), and as the world was transfixed by a global UFO hullaballoo(n). S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% at 8:00am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% after the underlying index suffered its first weekly loss of 2023. European stocks rose to trade near session highs, lifted by construction, industrial goods and consumer stocks while energy and real estate underperformed. The dollar pushed higher, Treasuries were little changed and oil slipped after Friday’s jump; bitcoin slumped. In premarket trading, Sorrento Therapeutics slumped after the drug developer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Texas.  Shares of major US tech and internet companies rose premarket, meanwhile Evercore ISI upgraded Zillow Group to outperform from in line. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Advance Auto Parts Inc. is cut to neutral from buy at Roth, with the broker saying it can no longer dismiss the company’s “serial under-performance” against peers, adding its market share is “unwinding quickly.” Shares decline 0.9%. BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI (SOUN lead fellow artificial intelligence-related stocks higher. This rebound comes after several stocks faltered on Friday as caution toward AI-related shares set in.  Bigbear.ai gains 3.7%. SoundHound AI is up 2.5bbai%. Capri Holdings is downgraded to market perform from outperform at Cowen, with the broker saying it has concerns about the company’s wholesale channel and the Michael Kors brand. Shares decline 0.8%. Coinbase could ultimately benefit over the long term from the increased scrutiny that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is putting on the staking of digital assets, according to Piper Sandler. Coinbase drops 1.7%. Gracell Biotechnologies climbs 1.4% after the company says the Center for Drug Evaluation of China’s National Medical Products Administration has cleared Gracell’s Investigational New Drug application for GC012F, an autologous CAR-T therapeutic candidate, for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Immunovant Inc. gains 3.1% after Guggenheim upgraded it to buy from neutral, with analyst Yatin Suneja optimistic for its new drug candidate IMVT-1402. Microsoft shares are up 1.4% with analysts optimistic about the software company’s long-term growth potential. Ocular Therapeutix Inc. rises 14% after the company announced 10-month interim data from an early-stage study of its experimental treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration. Proto Labs Inc.shares are up 2.5% after Benchmark Co upgraded the 3D printing company to buy from hold. Zillow Group Inc. shares are up 4.4% after Evercore ISI upgraded the online real estate platform to outperform from in line. Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) sinks 2.1% after the shipping company was cut to underweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which anticipates a global shipping down- cycle in 2023-2024 due to “significant oversupply” across the industry. Shares of China’s cross-border brokerage Futu (FUTU US) falls 0.5% in US premarket trading after Hong Kong-based Bright Smart Securities says it will suspend accounts held by mainland Chinese clients starting Feb. 16. Signa Sports United NV (SSU US) is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with the broker predicting an “uphill climb” for the online sports retailer due to the challenging macroeconomic backdrop. On Sunday, the US downed yet another flying object, the fourth so far - over Michigan yesterday, following those over northern Canada, Alaska and off the South Carolina coast - after deciding to be more cautious. The Pentagon doesn’t yet know what the most recent objects are and isn’t ruling out anything at this point. Meanwhile, China said US balloons have flown over its airspace more than 10 times since 2022. The January CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show an increase of 0.5% from a month earlier, spurred in part by higher gasoline costs. That would mark the biggest gain in three months. Excluding fuels and foods, so-called core prices — which better reflect underlying inflation — are seen rising 0.4% for a second month. The BLS changed how CPI is calculated. They changed some weightings which had the effect of showing that less progress was made on inflation than previously thought. Amid the new data, investors will be reassessing how high US interest rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. That has fueled bets for the Fed rate to peak at 5.2% in July, up from less than 5% a month ago. “We are certainly continuing to be very cautious on equities,” Nannette Hechler-Fayd’Herbe, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse International Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We find at the moment there is a disconnect in valuations versus where interest rates by the Fed — but also by other central banks — are going to be for the remainder of the year.” The rally in US equities lost steam last week over concerns that the Fed will stick to its hawkish resolve amid a strong labor market and relatively elevated inflation. Traders will parse this week’s data for clues on the path of monetary policy and the impact it could have on the US economy. “We’re looking for a correction over the next few months to take us back down to the lower 3,000s area in the S&P 500,” Saed Abukarsh, chief portfolio manager at Ark Capital Management Dubai Ltd., told Bloomberg Television. “The incentive for the Fed to be hawkish is still there. There is no incentive for them to be less hawkish.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's downbeat in house permabear argued that US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes. “While the recent move higher in front-end rates is supportive of the notion that the Fed may remain restrictive for longer than appreciated, the equity market is refusing to accept this reality,” Michael Wilson wrote in a note (more shortly). Wilson — the top-ranked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey — expects deteriorating fundamentals, along with Fed hikes that are coming at the same time as an earnings recession, to drive equities to an ultimate low this spring. “Price is about as disconnected from reality as it’s been during this bear market,” the strategists said. European stocks rose as the EU Commission lifts its growth forecast for the euro-area in 2023 while lowering estimates for inflation. The Stoxx 600 trade higher by 0.6%, rising to session highs, with outperformance seen in the industrial, construction and consumer product sectors. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: Kape Technologies shares rise as much as 13%, to 292.5p, and trade above the 285p offer made by majority holder Teddy Sagi to buy the remaining shares in the UK software company Smiths shares rise as much as 2.6% in early trading, Weir gains as much as 2.5% and Epiroc rises as much as 3.4%, after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on 10 European capital goods stocks Credit Suisse shares fall as much as 3.2%, resuming their slide following a Friday bounce after Vontobel trims its price target on the Swiss lender and Kepler Chevreux downgraded its recommendation to reduce from hold. The latter also cut its price target to a level implying a 26% fall from the last price Castellum falls as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, before paring losses after the Swedish real estate group announced a SEK10 billion ($955 million) rights offering Nel shares fall as much as 4%, as Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the electrolyzer firm to neutral following recent outperformance, though the broker remains bullish on the clean hydrogen outlook Network International shares fall as much as 4.1% on Monday, after Barclays downgraded the payment firm to equal-weight from overweight, citing the sharp slowdown in the firm’s card issuing business in the fourth quarter Asian stocks fell, heading to their lowest level in about a month, as investors awaited key inflation data from the world’s largest economy.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2%, extending losses after a two-week rout. Tech stocks led the slump with TSMC and Tokyo Electron dragging the gauge the most. Benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore slid while those in Hong Kong fluctuated.  Asian stocks have declined over the past two weeks as strong US jobs data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials dashed hopes of an interest-rate pivot. Investors are reassessing how high US rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. “Part of the reason for the overall decline goes to a lack of economic reports to offset the chorus of central bankers chanting ‘higher for longer,’” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, adding that investor nervousness may decrease after the release of US inflation figures due Tuesday.  China’s defense stocks gained after domestic news outlet The Paper reported that the nation is getting ready to take down an unidentified object flying over waters near the port city of Qingdao. Meanwhile, equities in Japan underperformed amid expectations that Kazuo Ueda, who is expected to be nominated as Japan’s central bank governor, will adopt faster policy normalization Japanese stocks fell as investors turned cautious ahead of US inflation data due Tuesday. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the outcome of the official BOJ governor nomination, with the market weighing Kazuo Ueda’s potential policy stance.  The Topix Index fell 0.5% to 1,977.67 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 27,427.32. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.9%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 702 rose and 1,356 fell, while 105 were unchanged. “Stocks are down partly to reflect the adjustment in US tech stocks last week and the market seems to still be digesting information regarding the potential new BOJ chief,” said Takeru Ogihara, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “Regardless of who the new governor is, BOJ seems to be moving towards monetary policy normalization, which would lead the interest rate and bank stocks to rise.” Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to 7,417.80 as investors assess earnings and brace for a critical US inflation report due this week. Consumer discretionary shares led sector losses, dragged lower by Star Entertainment after the casino operator said its Sydney trading has been hit by operating restrictions and competition from Crown. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.9% to 12,075.18 India stocks also declined for a second day ahead of the release of consumer-price data later on Monday which came in hotter than expected (6.52% vs exp. 6.50% and up sharply from 5.72% for December). India’s central bank remains watchful of inflation and is open to using monetary policy action to tame price pressures further.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 60,431.84 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5%. All but three of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges traded lower, led by service industry stocks. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.5%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 11 rose and 18 fell, while 1 was unchanged. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.3% before reversing gains, with the greenback trading mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The USD/JPY gained 0.9% to 132.60 as the Japanese yen underperforms its G-10 counterparts. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer, adding 0.4% versus the greenback. The euro was steady at $1.0677. Bunds and Italian bonds reversed opening losses as money markets pared ECB tightening wagers. The New Zealand dollar was the best performer and the yen was the worst. The Treasury curve twist-flattened very modestly. Data on Tuesday are expected to show US consumer price index for January increased 0.5% from a month earlier. The pound dipped against the dollar and the euro ahead of a busy week of UK data including jobs and inflation figures for January. Gilts inched lower The yen dropped as much as 1.1% 132.77 per dollar ahead of the nomination of a new BOJ governor and before the US inflation print Australian sovereign bonds slipped, following Treasuries amid mounting anxiety over how high the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates in its battle with inflation In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the curve flatter and long-end slightly richer on the day while front-end trades slightly cheaper vs Friday’s close. In Europe, gilts underperform with busy week of issuance lined-up. US 10-year yields little changed on the day at 3.735% with bunds and gilts underperforming by 1bp and 3bp in the sector; long-end outperformance on Treasury curve flattens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.7bp and 2.5bp on the day. Bund futures are in the green while Gilts are slightly lower. According to Bloomberg, the dollar issuance slate is empty so far (so no rate lock trades); preliminary estimate suggests $25 billion in new issues this week with bulk of the deals expected Monday before Tuesday’s inflation data. US session light for risk events, with price action relatively calm ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data. In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier decline with WTI now flat just shy of $80, after sliding down almost 2% lower. Spot gold falls roughly 0.3% to trade near $1,859. In cryptos, stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin. India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters. There is no macro on today's calendar; Bowman is the only Fed speaker at 8am ET this morning Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,102.50 MXAP down 0.8% to 165.06 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 539.31 Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,427.32 Topix down 0.5% to 1,977.67 Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 21,164.42 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,284.16 Sensex down 0.4% to 60,459.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,417.75 Kospi down 0.7% to 2,452.70 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.84 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36% Euro little changed at $1.0672 Brent Futures down 1.4% to $85.17/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,857.17 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.12% to 103.76 Top Overnight News The BOJ's expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won't rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member. RTRS The euro-zone economy will fare better this year than previously feared as a mild winter and high levels of gas storage help to ease the energy crisis, and the labor market holds up, according to the European Commission. European Union officials in Brussels raised their forecast for growth this year, predicting a 0.9% expansion in the currency bloc, and said it would narrowly avoid a recession. They also cut their projection for consumer price growth, though it remains high at 5.6%. BBG Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said it could take Russia up to another two years to capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and up to three if Moscow decides to take land east of the Dnipro River. WSJ Russia lost 1140 troops on Friday, a new single-day record, bringing the total death toll to nearly 137K (and Russian casualties over the last two weeks are likely the highest of the war). Also, Russia is witnessing an historic exodus of its citizens, with 500K-1M people leaving the country since the Ukraine war began (a departure on par with the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union collapse in 1991). Insider / WA Po “No landing” scenario gains traction among economists, raising fears the Fed still has more work to do on rates before inflation is sustainably on a path to the 2% target. WSJ Americans with college degrees saw a 7.4% inflation-adjusted drop in income last year, the steepest fall since 2004 and one that erases nearly all pandemic-era gains. BBG Walmart tells suppliers "no more price hikes" as it begins worrying about the effects of inflation on its customers (Walmart can also see that input costs are falling, which means suppliers have less need for incremental price increases). RTRS Meta has delayed finalizing multiple teams’ budgets while it prepares a fresh round of job cuts (11k employees, 13% of workforce) as Mark Zuckerberg’s plan to contain costs in his “year of efficiency” causes disruption at the social media company. Also, AMZN has cut ~20% of the headcount at its Zappos subsidiary. FT / WSJ Ford is set to announce as soon as Monday it plans to build a $3.5 billion lithium iron phosphate battery plant in Michigan, sources told Reuters. Ford is expected to own and operate the plant with Chinese battery company China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) (300750.SZ) as a technology partner to help develop the batteries. RTRS Investors have pulled a net $31 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past six weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data through Wednesday. That marks the longest streak of weekly net outflows since last summer and the most money pulled in aggregate from domestic equity funds to start a year since 2016. WSJ A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered after the US shot down a fourth flying object and with markets bracing for Tuesday's US CPI data, while the region also digested earnings releases and news that Japan's government is likely to nominate academic and former BoJ member Ueda to head the central bank. ASX 200 was lacklustre with earnings in focus and the Consumer Discretionary sector was pressured alongside a more than 20% drop in Star Entertainment shares after it flagged an impairment charge of up to AUD 1.6bln. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants pondered over the future of the BoJ with the government likely to nominate Ueda as the next central bank chief after dovish continuation candidate and BoJ’s QE policy architect Amamiya was said to turn down the role. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong pressured early on by weakness in property and tech, while the mainland was kept afloat after China’s recent loans and aggregate financing data topped forecasts with New Yuan Loans at a record high for January. Top Asian News PBoC and CBIRC published rules on the risk classification of banks’ financial assets which will take effect on July 1st, with the tightened management regulations aimed at assessing banks’ credit risks more accurately, reflecting lenders’ real asset quality, according to Reuters. Japan's Upper House of Parliament is to hold confirmation hearings on the government's nominations for the BoJ Governor and Deputy Governors on February 27th, according to sources cited by Reuters. BoJ's expected next chief Ueda is likely to allow the data to guide the exit timing, according to Tetsuya Inoue who was Ueda's former staff secretary during his time as a BoJ board member, according to Reuters. China's Foreign Ministry says senior diplomat Wang Yi will visit France, Italy, Russia and Hungary this month and attend the Munich Security Conference. European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with fresh developments limited and the schedule relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday's key events. Sectors are predominantly in the green, featuring outperformance in Travel and Construction names while Energy and Real Estate lag on benchmark pricing and broker activity respectively. US futures are incrementally in the green with the NQ leading slightly though overall performance is contained as we look towards Tuesday's CPI with Fed's Bowman due beforehand. Turkey is reportedly considering extending its stock market closure, according to Bloomberg sources. Top European News UK PM Sunak has reportedly asked ministers and officials to draw up plans for rebuilding the UK's relations with the EU, according to Bloomberg. UK employers are expected to increase wages by the most since 2012 with median expectations for a 5% pay rise, while 55% of recruiters were planning to lift base or variable pay this year, according to a CIPD survey cited by Reuters. Germany’s CDU is set to win in the repeat election in Berlin with 28% of votes, while Chancellor Scholz’s SDP party received just 18% of votes in a blow for the party which has governed the city-state for 22 years, according to ZDF. Moody’s affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable on Friday. EU Commission Forecasts: EZ to avoid the prev. expected technical recession, 0.1% QQ growth in Q4-2022 and 0.00% QQ in Q1-2023. Click here for more detail. Ship traffic has Turkey's Bosphorus strait has been suspended amid salvage operations of a ship, according to Tribeca shipping agency. FX USD is bid though peers, ex-JPY, are generally fairly contained after Friday's DXY rebound and ahead of US Tier 1 data and Fed speak throughout the week. At best, the USD has been up to 103.84 with USD/JPY as high as 132.76 as we await confirmation of Ueda's nomination for the BoJ and after reports indicate he will be data-driven when deciding on the appropriate point to end ultra-accommodation. At the other end of the spectrum, NZD is the relative outperformer and holding above 0.6300 as it pares losses vs AUD with data due overnight for the region; AUD/USD holding near 0.6900. CHF saw some fleeting strength in wake of hot domestic CPI while both EUR and GBP were unreactive to respective Central Bank speakers; around 0.923, 1.067 and 1.204 vs USD respectively. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8151 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.7884) Central Banks ECB’s Visco said there is no question that the restriction of the euro area monetary stance must continue and reiterated the pace of any further rate hike will continue to be decided based on incoming data and their impact on the inflation outlook, according to Reuters. ECB's Centeno says they need to be open minded with data, via Bloomberg TV; inflation surprised the ECB to the downside. Smaller hikes would need mid-term (i.e. 2024/2025) inflation nearing 2%. Labour market is a positive surprise, no signs of second round effects re. wages. BoE's Haskel says "it is true that when we raise rates that is not good for investment. I absolutely accept that, and therefore we are potentially contributing to that very poor capital investment", according to an interview with Matthew Klein; would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months. Fixed Income EGBs have experienced a firm bounce with Bunds comfortably above 136.00 to a peak circa. 30 ticks above, with technicals and perhaps ECB speak factoring. Amidst this, Gilts are more contained as they struggle to convincingly eclipse 104.00 while USTs reside at the top-end of narrow 112.18 to 11224 intra-day parameters. As such, EGB yields are modestly softer while the US curve is flat to mixed pre-Bowman. Commodities WTI March and Brent April futures are softer and towards the bottom of intraday ranges as the complex takes a breather from last week’s gains. While today's commodity-related schedule is limited, we do have the Olso Energy Conference (14-16th Feb) and the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium (15th Feb) in the near term. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC remain committed to stabilising global oil prices and their latest forecast shows oil demand will exceed pandemic levels this year to reach nearly 102mln bpd, while oil demand is expected to reach 110mln bpd by 2025, according to Reuters. Azerbaijani oil shipments at Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal resumed after the recent earthquake, according to a (BP/ LN) representative cited by Reuters. IEA sees the power sector set for a tipping point on emissions in 2025 and for electricity demand to increase by an average 3% through to 2025 with more than 70% of the global electricity demand increase over the next 3 years to come from China, India and south-east Asia, according to FT. Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia is looking to sell over 80% of its oil exports and 75% of its oil product exports to "friendly" nations in 2023; sees potential for increase of Russian natural gas exports to the APAC region. China's CNPC is reportedly close to sealing a long-term agreement to purchase LNG from QatarEnergy's north field expansion, via Reuters citing sources. Spot gold is slightly softer with a stronger USD factoring and pressuring the yellow metal to a test of Friday's USD 1852/oz trough at worst, while base metals are softer amid the tentative tone and USD. Geopolitics EU set to propose new Russia sanctions, potentially targeting tech exports used for military purposes, heavy vehicles and rubber, as well as dozens of listings, according to Bloomberg's Nardelli citing sources. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine but without preconditions and noted that any negotiations should take into account current realities on the field, according to TASS. Russia said it hit energy facilities in Ukraine on Friday, according to RIA. it was also reported that Russian troops took the village of Krasna Hora which is north of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Reuters. Canada’s Defence Minister announced that a fighter jet shot down an object about 100 miles from the US-Canadian border which was a small cylindrical object and had posed a reasonable threat to civilian aviation, while the Defence Minister added it is not prudent to speculate on the origin of the object, according to Reuters. US military shot down a fourth flying object over Lake Huron in Michigan which was an octagonal structure with no discernible payload, while the US did not assess the latest object to be a military threat and was shot down due to its potential surveillance capabilities after it flew in proximity to sensitive military sites, according to Reuters. China spotted a mystery flying object over the waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the Shandong province which authorities were preparing to shoot down, according to SCMP. China's Foreign Ministry says that since last year US high-altitude balloons flew over Chinese airspace without their permission on over 10 occasions. Taiwan has observed dozens of Chinese military balloon flights in its airspace in recent years, according to FT. UK is to launch a security review related to China's spy balloons, according to The Telegraph China is reportedly contemplating tripling its stockpile of nuclear warheads to 900 by 2035, according to sources cited by Japan Times. Crypto Stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin. India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters. Binance and TRON reached an agreement in which Binance will reduce transaction fees on the Tron network with withdrawal frees returned to previous levels, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled Central Bank Speakers 08:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I was left alone with Maisie yesterday morning while the twins went to "Ninja Warriors" which is basically a venue aimed at making children as tired as they possibly can be to give their parents a rest later. However my wife came back more tired than the boys as she had to join in! Anyway I used the couple of hours to try to write a surprise Valentine's Day song from Maisie to her mum. However I did it slightly differently. I asked ChatGPT to come up with some song lyrics given a selection of information about the family. The results were fairly spectacular and although I didn't use it all, I used it a starting point and tweaked around it. I'm pretty sure AI will revolutionise the written word in the years ahead. So if you've forgotten a present for your loved one for tomorrow why not ask chatGPT to write a poem for and about them. What could be more romantic than letting a robot and algorithm work out the words to express your love! On the most romantic day of the year tomorrow, the pheromones in the financial community might be dictated by a pretty important US CPI print. Sadly chatGPT can't give us any guidance there. It only feels like yesterday that US inflation prints were seen as last year’s news given the recent falls. In addition, forecasts and breakevens suggested we were on a glide path to normality over the next few months and quarters. However that view has received a bit of a jolt in the last 10 days. First we had payrolls print which raised the prospect that core services ex-shelter could stay stronger for longer. Then we had lots of hawkish central bank speak that the market had previously ignored but was now slowly waking up to. Then Manheim suggested US used cars (+2.5% mom in January) climbed at their fastest rate for 14-months and finally we had US CPI revisions on Friday that have rewritten the last year of history and in turn reduced core inflation by around a tenth each month leading up to June and have increased it by an average of around a tenth in each month since August. As such the trend in core CPI hasn’t fallen as much as expected and we now haven’t seen any month less than +0.3% MoM. In addition 3m annualised core CPI ran at 4.3% in December rather than the 3.1% reported at the January 12th release. So although year on year hasn’t changed the momentum is notably different. This feeds into work done by our economists over the last few weeks suggesting that inflation is going to be edging up again before it falls. See their chart book “The rise before the fall” (link here) for more on this. For tomorrow’s reading, higher gas prices should boost headline MoM CPI (+0.42% DB forecast, consensus +0.5%). Last month this printed at -0.1% but got revised up to +0.1% on Friday. Core MoM should be stable (DB +0.36% vs. +0.4% consensus) but only because Friday’s revisions saw it edge up from 0.3% to 0.4% last month. As strong prints from this time last year edge out of the data, the YoY rates should fall around two tenths each to 6.2% and 5.5% (consensus unchanged at 5.7%), respectively. If you want to get more into the weeds see DB’s Justin Weidner’s preview here. Staying with inflation, US PPI on Thursday is also important as the medical services component feeds directly into the equivalent within the core PCE number (out Feb 24th). Elsewhere in the US we have leading indicators (LEI) on Friday which are expected to pickup, but stay in negative territory in January after an awful print for December. January retail sales on Wednesday is also expected to bounce back after a poor end to the year. There are also a couple of regional factory surveys (NY on Weds and Philli Thurs) which along with industrial production (Weds) are also all expected to bounce to varying degrees. Thursday will also see the usual jobless claims alongside housing starts and building permits (1.350 vs. 1.337k). Fed speakers will have plenty of opportunity to address the data throughout the week, with at least ten appearances scheduled so far. There are a number of appearances from ECB officials as well. See the highlights in the day by day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Shifting to Europe, UK CPI (Weds) and labour market data (tomorrow) will be in focus following the recent more dovish BoE meeting. This week's CPI will also be calculated with new weights so our UK economists put out a note on the potential impact of the changes here. Turning to earnings now, with nearly 350 of the S&P 500 members having reported, there will still be a few notable corporates releasing results but the reality is that we are past the biggest potential market movers for the macro world. Asian equity markets are starting an important week on the back foot. The Nikkei (-0.98%) is leading losses with the KOSPI (-0.91%) and Hang Seng (-0.47%) losing ground. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are bucking the regional trend with the CSI (+0.62%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.53%) seeing decent gains. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.49%) trading lower following a disappointing week on Wall Street. In FX markets, the Japanese yen (-0.57%) continues to remain volatile, trading at 132.11 to the dollar ahead of the Japanese government’s official nomination on the new BOJ Governor scheduled tomorrow. On the oil front, prices are lower this morning with Brent futures (-1.03%) trading at $85.50/bbl and WTI (-1.17%) at $78.79/bbl after a strong past week. Looking back on that week now, markets moved to price in more aggressive rate hikes from both the Fed and the ECB than had previously been expected. In the US, the fed futures market ended the week pricing a 5.188% rate for July meeting, marking the highest close of this cycle so far. That was an increase of +18.0bps on the week and +4.5bps on Friday. The prospect of more rate hikes reverberated in fixed income markets, with 10yr Treasuries yields up +7.4bps on Friday and +20.7bps over the week, reaching their highest levels since the end of December. Over in Europe, overnight index swaps similarly moved to price in a higher terminal rate for the ECB at the July meeting, increasing by +18.4bps over the week (+5.8bps on Friday) to 3.501%, the highest level since the end of December. Fixed income markets extended their hawkish shift, with 2yr German bund yields jumping to their highest since 2008, up +7.2bps on Friday. This added to earlier increases, with 2yr bunds up +21.4bps over the week. 10yr bunds also fell back, as yields jumped +17.1bps over the week (+6.1bps on Friday). Over in equity markets, last week was the worst of 2023 so far following a very strong start to the year. The S&P 500 was down -1.11% over the week (-0.22% on Friday), its largest decline in weekly terms since mid-December. The NASDAQ also saw its largest weekly loss since December, falling back -2.41% (-0.61% on Friday). The STOXX 600 also fell back, down -0.63% (-0.96% on Friday). In other news from Friday, it was widely reported that Kazuo Ueda was set to be appointed as the BoJ's next governor. Ueda is an academic economist and former policy board member of the BoJ. According to our Japanese economists (link), Ueda is not considered to be hawkish and he would be wary of lifting monetary easing too early. However, foreign exchange markets saw Ueda in a more hawkish light, with the Yen reacting positively to the news, rallying + 1.33% against the US Dollar following the news, before reversing over the course of the day. The Nikkei closed up +0.59% on the week (+0.31% on Friday) In other data releases on Friday, we had a downward surprise for UK GDP growth for December, which printed at -0.5% month-on-month (vs -0.3% expected). However, a technical recession (2 consecutive quarterly contractions) was just avoided with zero growth in Q4 as a whole, following a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Against this backdrop, the FTSE 100 was down -0.36% on Friday and fell back -0.24% on the week. Over in commodities, oil prices saw further gains on Friday following the news that Russia would be cutting output from next month. WTI was up +8.63% for the week (+2.13% on Friday) to $79.72/bbl, and Brent crude rose up +8.07% (+2.24% on Friday) to $86.39/bbl. European natural gas futures fell -6.81% over the week (+2.30% on Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 02/13/2023 - 08:11.....»»

Spy balloons are creating new diplomatic tensions, with both the US and China accusing each other of sending them over their territory. The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina, February 4, 2023.Randall Hill/Reuters China accused the US of sending spy balloons over the country at least 10 times since January 2022. This comes after the US shot down an apparent Chinese spy balloon over the US earlier this month. Other countries have also accused China of sending spy balloons over their territory.  China said that the US has flown more than 10 high-altitude spy balloons over its airspace since January 2022, as it responded to US outrage over an alleged Chinese spy balloon that flew over the United States.During a briefing on Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that many balloons were flown over China without its permission, Reuters reported.Wang, responding to questions, said that China had shot down the balloons in a responsible and professional way.This comes after the US accused China of sending spy balloons over its airspace and those of other countries.On February 4, US F22 jets shot down the first balloon, triggering a strong response from China. The Chinese foreign ministry said that it was "unacceptable and irresponsible" to shoot it down, calling it an overreaction.China acknowledged that the balloon was one its own, but said it was a "meteorological research" tool that had ended up over the US by accident.A State Department official told CNN that the balloon was part of a fleet that had flown over "more than 40 countries across five continents."The US also claimed to have shot down other objects this month, but has not said whether it believes they came from China.Other countries have also accused China of encroaching on their airspace.Canada said the spy balloon that the US shot down also crossed Canadian territory.Meanwhile, Taiwan said that China had sent dozens of surveillance balloons over its airspace in recent years, according to the Financial Times.A senior Taiwanese official told the outlet that "they come very frequently, the last one just a few weeks ago," with the publication suggesting that the revelation provided new insight into China's "extensive military balloon programme." A UK government minister also said on Monday that it was "possible" China had sent spy balloons over the United Kingdom.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

The object downed over Lake Michigan-Huron was the third suspicious object shot down by the US in three days. The shoreline of Lake Michigan.iStock/Getty Images Plus Another unknown object was shot down over Lake Michigan-Huron on Sunday. The FAA briefly declared a "national defense airspace" over part of the lake while it was downed. The object was the third item shot down by the US in three days. The Federal Aviation Administration temporarily restricted airspace above Lake Michigan on Sunday for "national defense" as a suspicious object was shot down — the third such object downed by the US in three days."Today at 2:42 p.m. ET, at the direction of President Biden, and based on the recommendations of Secretary Austin and military leadership, an F-16 fired an AIM9x to successfully shoot down an airborne object flying at approximately 20,000 feet altitude in U.S. airspace over Lake Huron in the State of Michigan," a statement from the Pentagon read. "Its path and altitude raised concerns, including that it could be a hazard to civil aviation."Prior to shooting the object down, the FAA declared a "national defense airspace" over Lake Michigan-Huron, Fox News reported the agency said in a notice. The FAA said that it "briefly closed some airspace over Lake Michigan to support Department of Defense activities" in a statement to Insider on Sunday."The airspace has been reopened," the statement said.The United States military also closed airspace in Montana on Saturday and sent fighter jets to investigate a "radar anomaly," according to Reuters. The North American Aerospace Defense Command said the pilots didn't see anything in the area of the corresponding radar hits, according to the outlet.Montana Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale said on Twitter that he is in "constant communication" with officials who "advised me that they have confidence there IS an object, and it WAS NOT an anomaly."—Matt Rosendale (@RepRosendale) February 12, 2023 Rosendale's office did not immediately return Insider's request for comment."Based on its flight path and data we can reasonably connect this object to the radar signal picked up over Montana, which flew in proximity to sensitive DOD sites," a Sunday statement from the Pentagon read. "We did not assess it to be a kinetic military threat to anything on the ground, but assess it was a safety flight hazard and a threat due to its potential surveillance capabilities. Our team will now work to recover the object in an effort to learn more."The closure of Lake Michigan's airspace follows the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon by an F-22 off the coast of South Carolina on February 4. F-22 jets also shot down another unidentified object over Alaska on Friday. Then, another unknown object, described as "cylindrical" by Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand, was shot down over Canada.Sen. Chuck Schumer said on Sunday that the US believes the objects shot down over Alaska and Canada were also balloons.The US Department of Defense said that the FBI and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police will be working "very closely" to investigate the object shot down over Canada in a statement.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena shot down over Alaska and Canada this weekend have not been officially linked to the Chinese spy balloon. Map showing the approximate locations of UAP across North America in Jan/Feb 2023Insider US fighter aircraft shot down an object threatening airspace over Alaska on Friday. F-22 pilots who saw the object said it "interfered with their sensors" and had no propulsion system. On Saturday and Sunday, additional objects were shot down over Canada and near the US border. A week after shooting down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that floated over the country, F-22 jets shot down an unidentified object threatening flights over Alaska on Friday. Reports offer conflicting details about the object's capabilities and origin, and US intelligence officials have released limited information about its design or intended purpose.Recently, Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have been observed not just over the United States, but floating above Canada, Colombia, and Costa Rica. It's been an extraordinary week for UAPs in North AmericaIn addition to the first surveillance balloon seen over the country beginning January 31, a second balloon was spotted floating over Latin America on February 4, and two unidentified objects were shot down over Alaska and Canada on Friday and Saturday.An additional object was shot down on Sunday over Lake Huron, near the US-Canadian border, prompting a brief closure of the airspace around Michigan to "support Department of Defense activities." The Wall Street Journal reported the object, the third shot down in three days, was shaped like an octagon and hovered at an altitude of 20,000 feet.Airspace over Montana was also briefly restricted on Saturday after reports of radar anomalies in the region, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said in a statement posted to Twitter, but after an investigation, no additional object was found.US officials say China has a global operation of surveillance balloons collecting data on military bases, including the balloon downed last week, but the object shot down Friday has not been confirmed to be linked to Chinese officials — or anyone else. Here is what we know about the object shots down over the weekend.3 UAP were at an altitude that conflicted with commercial flights"I can confirm that the Department of Defense was tracking a high-altitude object over Alaska airspace in the last 24 hours," White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at a Friday briefing. "The object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight."The balloon seen floating above the country last week hovered at around 60,000 feet, according to the Pentagon — which is well out of the general cruising altitude of commercial aircraft, which normally operate between 33,000 and 42,000 feet. Officials haven't confirmed the origin of the objectsKirby said officials first became aware of the item on Thursday night, but even after shooting it down could not confirm its origin, saying: "We do not know who owns it, whether it's state-owned or corporate-owned or privately owned. We just don't know.""If it was another Chinese spy balloon, that indicates that China is either incompetent in operating these platforms or potentially deliberately provoking the US," Michael P. Mulroy, a former Pentagon official, told The New York Times. "It is also important for the US and China to maintain direct communications during times like this. Especially between the militaries."Officials confirmed the origin of last week's Chinese surveillance balloon two days after it was first sighted. Chinese officials have acknowledged the first balloon came from their country, but maintain it was a civilian airship used mainly for "meteorological research." "We're calling this an object because that's the best description we have right now," Kirby said Friday. China has not made any claims regarding the objects shot down in Canada and Alaska, but authorities in the eastern Shandong province said Sunday they had also seen an "unidentified flying object" near the Yellow Sea and planned to shoot it down, according to China's state-affiliated tabloid, The Global Times.During a Sunday interview with ABC News, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he had been briefed on the objects shot down on Friday and Saturday and had been told they were likely balloons."But much smaller than the first one," Schumer said, reiterating that the object's altitude could have interfered with commercial airspace, prompting the decision to bring it down immediately. "The first balloon, there was a much different rationale, which I think was the appropriate rationale. We got enormous intelligence information from surveilling the balloon as it went over the United States."Schumer did not confirm whether the objects shot down Friday or Saturday had come from China.Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Feb. 5, 2023.Petty Officer 1st Class Tyler ThompsonThere may be surviving evidence in the debrisOfficials are working to recover the debris from the object shot down on Friday, which landed on frozen water off the Alaskan coast near the Canadian border. CBS News reported the object was downed near Prudhoe Bay.The object shot down on Saturday was spotted in the Northern Canadian territory of Yukon. Reuters reported Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canadian officials would recover and analyze the debris.The Yukon high-altitude object was described by Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand as cylindrical in shape, Reuters reported, though no other details have yet been released. It is unclear if the object shot down off the Alaskan coast was of similar size or shape.The debris field in the Atlantic Ocean after the first balloon was shot down measured "15 football fields by 15 football fields," with a depth of around 50 feet, General Glen VanHerck, commander of NORAD and US Northern Command, told reporters on Monday. He added that the balloon was about 200 feet tall with a payload the size of a "jet airliner" and estimated it weighed a few thousand pounds. Schumer told ABC News on Sunday it remains unclear what intelligence China was able to gather from the balloon shot down on February 4, but the debris would be pieced back together to determine what information may have been collected."So that's a huge coup for the United States," Schumer said.Conflicting reports from pilotsPrior to shooting down the object, Kirby told reporters, the pilots of the F-22 jets that took it down circled it and determined it was unmanned and lacked the ability to maneuver midair and change its speed like previous balloons have been seen doing.He did not share additional details about the object.While official government sources are quiet on the object, others are sharing reports from the pilots who tracked it."Some of the F-22 Pilots who Tracked the Aircraft that was downed over Alaska yesterday said that it 'Interfered with their Sensors' and that 'They could see No Propulsion Systems on the Aircraft not knowing how it could possibly be staying in the Air,'" according to the public military and intelligence scanner, Open Source Intelligence Monitor.Some of the pilots, OSIM reported, did not experience interference with their systems and could not agree on a description of the object.Open Source Intelligence Monitor did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.CNN reported an anonymous source with knowledge of the briefing said the pilots shared conflicting observations about the object, including that it had interfered with their systems and that they could not explain how it stayed in the air.An F-22 Raptor from Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., flies over Nellis AFB, Nev., during Red Flag 16-1, Feb. 5, 2016. Twelve Tyndall F-22s participated in Red Flag 16-1, a joint-training, full-spectrum readiness exercise designed to provide the most realistic combat training possible.US Air ForceUnidentified Anomalous Phenomena are showing up in more places than the skyIn December, the Department of Defense established the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office to identify "unidentified anomalous phenomena" — in space, in the air, on land, or in the sea — that may threaten national security. The term UAP replaces the traditional "unidentified flying object" or UFO designation, as officials expect to evaluate anomalies "across all domains."While it is unclear if unknown terrestrial objects have been seen recently, former Navy pilots David Fravor and Alex Dietrich told CBS News in 2021 about an encounter with an unknown object while conducting pre-deployment training in 2004.The pair described flying their aircraft over the ocean, and seeing an area of roiling whitewater on the surface below. Just above the whitewater was a "white Tic Tac looking" object with "no predictable trajectory." "It was unidentified," Dietrich said. "And that's why it was so unsettling to us. Because we weren't expecting it. We couldn't classify it."Footage released by the Pentagon in 2020 also revealed unknown objects speeding across the ocean surface that had been spotted by Navy pilots. "Dude, this is a f--king drone, bro," CBS News reported one of the pilots exclaims in the video. Another person says "there's a whole fleet of them.""They're all going against the wind," the first pilot said. "The wind's 120 knots to the west. Look at that thing, dude! It's rotating!"A 2021 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said "in 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings."The 2022 report noted that, among the 171 uncharacterized incidents, "some of these uncharacterized UAP appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis."Representatives for the Pentagon and US Northern Command did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Officials have acknowledged surveillance balloons have been seen floating in US airspace several times over the last few years, though they have not always been immediately identified — three devices spotted during the Trump administration were initially classified as UFOs.This story has been updated.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Rep. Matt Rosendale said Sunday that officials advised the lawmaker that "there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly." The shoreline of Lake Michigan.iStock/Getty Images Plus The Federal Aviation Administration declared a "national defense airspace" over part of Lake Michigan. There was a flight restriction in the area on Sunday, but that had been abruptly lifted. Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale said Sunday that officials advised him that "there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly." The Federal Aviation Administration temporarily restricted airspace above Lake Michigan on Sunday for "national defense."The FAA declared a "national defense airspace" over Lake Michigan, the agency said in a notice according to Fox News. The FAA said that it "briefly closed some airspace over Lake Michigan to support Department of Defense activities" in a statement to Insider on Sunday."The airspace has been reopened," the statement said.The United States military also closed airspace in Montana on Saturday and sent fighter jets to investigate a "radar anomaly," according to Reuters. The North American Aerospace Defense Command said the pilots didn't see anything in the area of the corresponding radar hits, according to the outlet.Montana Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale said on Twitter that he is in "constant communication" with officials who "advised me that they have confidence there IS an object, and it WAS NOT an anomaly."—Matt Rosendale (@RepRosendale) February 12, 2023 Rosendale's office did not immediately return Insider's request for comment.The closure of Lake Michigan's airspace follows the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon by an F-22 off the coast of South Carolina last week. F-22 jets also shot down another unidentified object over Alaska on Friday. Then, another unknown object, described as "cylindrical" by Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand, was shot down over Canada.Sen. Chuck Schumer said on Sunday that the US believes the objects shot down over Alaska and Canada were also balloons.The US Department of Defense said that the FBI and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police will be working "very closely" to investigate the object shot down over Canada in a statement.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Now China Claims It's Tracking Unidentified Object Over Port City Now China is jumping in on the trend, apparently, as authorities in China say they have spotted and are tracking an unidentified object over waters near the port city of Qingdao. Scant details have been given, but the claim was briefly detailed in Bloomberg on Sunday, with the publication saying authorities are preparing to down the object. Qingdao, via Xinhua Area fisherman and boats in the port waters have been alerted and told to follow safety precautions due to the object, which is hovering at an unknown altitude. According to the report:  An employee at the marine development authority of Qingdao’s Jimo district said “relevant authorities” are preparing to bring down the object, the report said. The employee was not informed what the object was. By the vague description, it could be a balloon of some type, or alternately perhaps the Chinese are attempting to hype their own "foreign threat" news story as a counter following the Pentagon shooting down the Chinese 'spy' balloon, which Beijing has maintained all along was just a weather research platform. As for the now recovered balloon which was shot down over a week ago Saturday off the US east coast, it is undergoing FBI analysis. However, the undercarriage, which US officials say contained surveillance gear, has yet to be lifted from the ocean, and is said to be large - at least 30 feet across.  And then there's the bizarre couple of incidents over far northern parts of the American continent... The object shot down above Alaska was an actual UFO: "Other pilots saying that when they looked at the object they could identify no identifiable propulsion system and they did not know how it was actually staying in the air cruising at that altitude“ pic.twitter.com/k47jM99rdk — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) February 11, 2023 According to the latest this weekend, the US has said it shot down a third high-altitude object over northern Canada, just a day following a similar intercept of a mysterious object over far northeast Alaska.  Tyler Durden Sun, 02/12/2023 - 09:55.....»»

Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena shot down over Alaska and Canada on Friday and Saturday have not been linked to the Chinese spy balloon. Map showing the approximate locations of UAP across North America in Jan/Feb 2023Google Maps US fighter aircraft shot down an object threatening airspace over Alaska yesterday. F-22 pilots who saw the object said it "interfered with their sensors" and had no propulsion system. On Saturday, another unknown object, described as "cylindrical," was shot down over Canada. A week after shooting down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that floated over the country, F-22 jets shot down an unidentified object threatening flights over Alaska on Friday. Reports offer conflicting details about the object's capabilities and origins, and US intelligence officials have released limited information about its design or intended purpose.Recently, Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have been observed not just over the United States, but floating above Canada, Colombia, and Costa Rica. It's been an extraordinary week for UAPs in North AmericaIn addition to the first surveillance balloon seen over the country beginning January 31, a second balloon was spotted floating over Latin America on February 4, while another unidentified object was shot down over Canada on Saturday. Airspace over Montana was also briefly restricted on Saturday after reports of radar anomalies in the region, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said in a statement posted to Twitter, but after an investigation, no additional object was found.US officials say China has a global operation of surveillance balloons collecting data on military bases, including the balloon downed last week, but the object shot down Friday has not been confirmed to be linked to Chinese officials — or anyone else. Here is what we know about the object shot down on Friday.The object over Alaska was at an altitude that conflicted with commercial flights"I can confirm that the Department of Defense was tracking a high-altitude object over Alaska airspace in the last 24 hours," White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at a Friday briefing. "The object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight."The balloon seen floating above the country last week hovered at around 60,000 feet, according to the Pentagon — which is well out of the general cruising altitude of commercial aircraft, which normally operate between 33,000 and 42,000 feet. We don't know the origin of objects shot down on Friday or SaturdayKirby said officials first became aware of the item on Thursday night, but even after shooting it down could not confirm its origin, saying: "We do not know who owns it, whether it's state-owned or corporate-owned or privately owned. We just don't know.""If it was another Chinese spy balloon, that indicates that China is either incompetent in operating these platforms or potentially deliberately provoking the US," Michael P. Mulroy, a former Pentagon official, told The New York Times. "It is also important for the US and China to maintain direct communications during times like this. Especially between the militaries."Officials confirmed the origin of last week's Chinese surveillance balloon two days after it was first sighted. Chinese officials have acknowledged the first balloon came from their country, but maintain it was a civilian airship used mainly for "meteorological research." China has not made any claims regarding the objects shot down in Canada and Alaska."We're calling this an object because that's the best description we have right now," Kirby said. There may be surviving evidence in the debrisOfficials are working to recover the debris from the unknown object shot down on Friday, which landed on frozen water off the Alaskan coast near the Canadian border. CBS News reported the object was downed near Prudhoe Bay.The object shot down on Saturday was spotted in the Northern Canadian territory of Yukon. Reuters reported Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canadian officials would recover and analyze the debris.The Yukon high-altitude object was described by Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand as cylindrical in shape, Reuters reported, though no other details have yet been released. It is unclear if the object shot down off the Alaskan coast was of similar size or shape.The debris field in the Atlantic Ocean after the first balloon was shot down measured "15 football fields by 15 football fields," with a depth of around 50 feet, General Glen VanHerck, commander of NORAD and US Northern Command, told reporters on Monday. He added that the balloon was about 200 feet tall with a payload the size of a "jet airliner" and estimated it weighed a few thousand pounds. An F-22 Raptor from Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., flies over Nellis AFB, Nev., during Red Flag 16-1, Feb. 5, 2016. Twelve Tyndall F-22s participated in Red Flag 16-1, a joint-training, full-spectrum readiness exercise designed to provide the most realistic combat training possible.US Air ForceConflicting reports from pilotsPrior to shooting down the object, Kirby told reporters, the pilots of the F-22 jets that took it down circled it and determined it was unmanned and lacked the ability to maneuver midair and change its speed like previous balloons have been seen doing.He did not share additional details about the object.While official government sources are quiet on the object, others are sharing reports from the pilots who tracked it."Some of the F-22 Pilots who Tracked the Aircraft that was downed over Alaska yesterday said that it 'Interfered with their Sensors' and that 'They could see No Propulsion Systems on the Aircraft not knowing how it could possibly be staying in the Air,'" according to the public military and intelligence scanner, Open Source Intelligence Monitor.Some of the pilots, OSIM reported, did not experience interference with their systems and could not agree on a description of the object.Open Source Intelligence Monitor did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.CNN reported an anonymous source with knowledge of the briefing said the pilots shared conflicting observations about the object, including that it had interfered with their systems and that they could not explain how it stayed in the air.Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena are showing up in more places than the skyIn December, the Department of Defense established the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office to identify "unidentified anomalous phenomena" — in space, in the air, on land, or in the sea — that may threaten national security. The term UAP replaces the traditional "unidentified flying object" or UFO designation, as officials expect to evaluate anomalies "across all domains."While it is unclear if unknown terrestrial objects have been seen recently, former Navy pilots David Fravor and Alex Dietrich told CBS News in 2021 about an encounter with an unknown object while conducting pre-deployment training in 2004.The pair described flying their aircraft over the ocean, and seeing an area of roiling whitewater on the surface below. Just above the whitewater was a "white Tic Tac looking" object with "no predictable trajectory." "It was unidentified," Dietrich said. "And that's why it was so unsettling to us. Because we weren't expecting it. We couldn't classify it."Footage released by the Pentagon in 2020 also revealed unknown objects speeding across the ocean surface that had been spotted by Navy pilots. "Dude, this is a f--king drone, bro," CBS News reported one of the pilots exclaims in the video. Another person says "there's a whole fleet of them.""They're all going against the wind," the first pilot said. "The wind's 120 knots to the west. Look at that thing, dude! It's rotating!"A 2021 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said "in 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings."The 2022 report noted that, among the 171 uncharacterized incidents, "some of these uncharacterized UAP appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis."Representatives for the Pentagon and US Northern Command did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Officials have acknowledged surveillance balloons have been seen floating in US airspace several times over the last few years, though they have not always been immediately identified — three devices spotted during the Trump administration were initially classified as UFOs.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

The balloon that appeared last week over the US couldn't have been "a more toxic example" of China's incursions, an expert told Insider. Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Feb. 5, 2023.Petty Officer 1st Class Tyler Thompson The Chinese spy balloon "put a missile" through an already strained relationship with the US, an expert said. It symbolized "an increasingly hostile relationship" with Beijing, said the expert in Chinese-US relations. The balloon appeared over the US last week and was ultimately shot down by a fighter jet.  The Chinese spy balloon that floated above America and sparked a diplomatic crisis was a "clumsy" move by Beijing that "put a missile" through an already strained relationship with the United States, a China expert said. The 200-foot-tall, high-altitude balloon — which first appeared last week over continental America and was ultimately shot down by a US fighter jet — symbolized "for everyone in the world, particularly in America, that we are in an increasingly hostile relationship," Orville Schell, the director of the Center on US-China Relations at Asia Society in New York told Insider. The balloon incident also torpedoed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's high-stakes trip to China. The US indefinitely postponed the visit just hours before he was due to depart and further stripped the two superpower countries of a chance to ease tensions.Schell explained that the US-China relationship has been on a "downward spiral," and Blinken's visit to Beijing was supposed to try to "slow down" that trend. The Chinese balloon was an "incredibly clumsy gesture" on Beijing's part and it "deprived us of a very important moment to arrest the downward spiral," Schell said."The balloon incident put a missile not only through the balloon," Schell said, "But through what we hoped would be an interaction with Blinken, [Chinese President Xi Jinping, and senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi] that could have slowed down this process and possibly altered the course of the downward spiral."Antony Blinken (left) and Xi Jinping.Anusak Laowilas/NurPhoto via Getty Images; Ju Peng/Xinhua via Getty ImagesAdditionally, the presence of the massive surveillance balloon allowed Americans across the country "to see in the most dramatic way … Chinese incursion into American airspace," said Schell. "You couldn't have a more toxic example that would inflame everyone," the longtime China observer added. Former President Donald Trump and GOP lawmakers were quick to call for the US to shoot down the balloon before the US Air Force used its top air superiority fighter, the F-22 Raptor, to fire a single air-to-air missile at the balloon, downing it after it passed over the Atlantic Ocean. "Every human being on the North American continent sees this symbol of China's animosity towards America and that they're spying on America," Schell said, "And it makes it harder and harder and harder to do diplomacy."The Biden administration revealed this week that the Chinese military has targeted more than 40 countries across five continents with high-altitude surveillance balloons like the one the US shot down. And though Beijing has admitted that the downed balloon belonged to China, it has insisted it was a weather balloon that blew off course. China has even put blame on the US, saying that it "overreacted" by shooting down the balloon and accused it of waging information "warfare" against Beijing. The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina, U.S. February 4, 2023.Randall Hill/ReutersThe situation, Schell said, has been "very poorly managed by China.""China has a face issue. And it has a very difficult time acknowledging any fault," said the foreign policy scholar.  "And this has a lot to do with the stature of a big leader like Xi Jinping who's supposed to be infallible."Another China expert, Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund think tank, called the balloon incident "unfortunate" and said it "sets back" progress between the US and China, but explained that there are indications that China wants to get the relationship "back on what they consider to be at least a more stable track.""There's enormous mutual distrust and both sides are always trying to identify vulnerabilities in the other and advantages. That said, all the signals coming from China is that while they don't want to look weak to their domestic audience, they don't want this incident to rupture the relationship," Glaser told Insider.Glaser added that it is also not in the US' interests "to completely rupture" its relationship with China. "But it is going to take time to begin to re-engage in dialogue with China," said Glaser. "I don't think anybody's thinking right now about when Blinken should go."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»