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Urban Outfitters (URBN) Down 11.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Urban Outfitters (URBN) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Urban Outfitters (URBN). Shares have lost about 11.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Urban Outfitters due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Urban Outfitters Q2 Earnings & Sales Beat, Rise Y/YUrban Outfitters reported sturdy second-quarter fiscal 2022 results wherein the top and the bottom line outshone the Zacks Consensus Estimate and also improved on a year-over-year basis. We note that sales across the company’s all brands and segments grew year over year.Deeper InsightThe company delivered earnings per share of $1.28 that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. The bottom line improved significantly from 35 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter and 61 cents earned in the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019.In the reported quarter, net sales of $1,157.7 million soared 44.1% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,080 million. Also, the metric grew 20.3% from the figure reported in the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019. Brandwise, net sales were up 36.3% year over year to $441.6 million at Urban Outfitters, 52.7% to $450.6 million at Anthropologie Group and 40.3% to $249.7 million at Free People. Menus & Venues’ net sales amounted to $5.9 million, significantly up from $1.6 million recorded in the prior-year quarter. Nuuly, the subscription-based rental service for women’s clothes contributed $9.9 million to net sales, reflecting an increase 110.6% from the year-ago period’s level.Segmentwise, net sales at the company’s Retail Segment surged 43.8% year over year to $1,089 million while the same at the Wholesale Segment climbed 43.1% to $58.8 million. Comparable Retail segment net sales rose 40% year over year and 22% from the same-quarter fiscal 2020 level on account of double-digit sales growth across the digital channel. Growth was partly offset by low single-digit negative retail store sales on lower store traffic. Robust consumer demand in majority of the product categories, mainly apparel, as well as solid execution drove double-digit retail segment comps across all brands. When compared to the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019, comparable Retail segment net sales jumped 53% at the Free People Group, 14% at the Anthropologie Group and 20% at Urban Outfitters.An Insight Into MarginsIn the quarter under review, gross profit soared 82.9% year over year to $435.3 million from the year-ago quarter’s level. Also, gross margin expanded 800 basis points (bps) year over year and 478 bps from the second-quarter fiscal 2020 tally to 37.6%. Record low merchandise markdown rates in the Retail segment coupled with leveraged store occupancy expenses on higher penetration of the digital channel in Retail segment net sales aided the gross margin.Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses shot up 59.8% year over year and 13.3% from the second-quarter fiscal 2020 level to $269.4 million. As a percentage of net sales, the metric increased 230 bps year over year while the same decreased 140 bps from the fiscal 2020 figure to 23.3%.The company recorded an operating income of $165.9 million, significantly up from $69.4 million recorded in the prior-year quarter and $78.1 million reported in second-quarter fiscal 2019. As a rate of sales, operating margin expanded 570 bps year over year and 620 bps from the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019 to 14.3%.Other Financial DetailsUrban Outfitters ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $464.8 million and total shareholders’ equity of $1,669.4 million. As of Jul 31, 2021, total inventory increased 37.3% year over year to $483.1 million.This Philadelphia, PA-based company generated net cash of $195.2 million from operating activities during the first half of fiscal 2022. For fiscal 2022, management projects capital expenditures of nearly $285 million, mainly related to expanded distribution and fulfillment capacity to boost digital growth and store launches.Urban Outfitters did not buy back shares in the first six months of fiscal 2022. It repurchased and subsequently retired 0.5 million shares for roughly $7 million in fiscal 2021. As of Jul 31, 2021, the company had 25.9 million shares remaining under its share repurchase programs.OutlookManagement highlighted that comp sales in August at the Free People and Anthropologie brands are almost in line with the reported quarter’s levels while Urban Outfitters’ brand comps slowed down in mid-July. The company expects retail segment comps for the Urban Outfitters’ brand in the fiscal third quarter to moderate by high single-digits. August to date, the overall Urban Outfitters retail segment comp sales are mid-teens positive.Urban Outfitters projects the fiscal third quarter to continue reflecting a healthy sales improvement in comparison to fiscal 2020. It believes that retail segment comp sales will grow in mid teens while the wholesale segment sales are likely to decline at a rate similar to that of the fiscal second quarter. These will result in the overall company sales in low double-digits.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 19.89% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Urban Outfitters has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Urban Outfitters has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

India ETFs Rallying Hard: Is Any Upside Left?

India's stock market is hovering at a record high. Lower COVID-19 cases and pent-up demand have acted as the tailwind to the Indian market. India’s stock market is hovering at a record high. Lower COVID-19 cases and pent-up demand have acted as the tailwind to the Indian market. A rebound in demand has been aiding many industries, starting from autos, where supply is suppressed due to chip shortage, or real estate, which is seeing strong bookings to cash in on the low rates. Better-than-expected gross domestic product and goods and services tax (GST) collection point toward a sustainable rebound in earnings, per a source.“Strong liquidity and positive macroeconomic cues are also likely to support domestic markets to continue their movements to record levels. The consumer demand will be closely monitored as it is expected to pick up, given the festive season has begun and the restrictions are continuing to ease. However, concerns on the third wave of the (COVID-19) pandemic still hover," Motilal Oswal said in its report, as quoted on a source.India is expected to post strong economic growth in the coming quarters, even as inflation, led by food prices, is likely to remain elevated, S&P Global Ratings said recently. The economy is expected to log 9.5% growth in the current fiscal year, followed by 7% expansion in the next year, it predicted. The easing of retail inflation to 5.3% for August is a plus as it would help the Reserve Bank of India maintain its easy monetary policy stance a little longer.Can India Equities Rally Higher?Nifty50’s one-year and two-year forward PE multiples are the highest among emerging market economies. “Episodic shifts in risk appetite have rendered equity markets frothy with stretched valuations,” the Indian central bank said lately, per an Economic Times article.The growing optimism for the Indian stock market is also reflected in the fast fall in the equity risk premia for India. The RBI report said that the equity risk premia for India dropped to 3.2% in September from 6.3% in March 2020.Analysts have suggested that the market needs a healthy correction to prevent the “froth building up in various pockets”, per the above-mentioned Economic Times article. Against this backdrop, we highlight a few India ETFs with relatively lower P/E at the current level. Investors with a strong stomach for risks and those who have faith in further Indian market rally, may tap the below-mentioned ETFs.ETFs in Focus  WisdomTree India Earnings Fund EPI – P/E 17.74XThe WisdomTree India Earnings Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of companies incorporated and traded in India that are profitable and that are eligible to be purchased by foreign investors as of the index measurement date. Weighted Index based on their earnings in their fiscal year prior to the Index measurement date adjusted for foreign investors. The fund charges 84 bps in fees.First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF NFTY – P/E 17.83XThe underlying NIFTY 50 Equal Weight Index is an equally weighted index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid Indian securities listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. The fund charges 80 bps in fees.Nifty India Financials ETF INDF – P/E 22.12XThe underlying Nifty Financial Services 25/50 Index measures the performance of companies in the Indian financial market, including banks, financial institutions, housing finance, insurance companies and other financial services companies. The fund charges 75 bps in fees.Invesco India ETF PIN – P/E 22.19XThe underlying FTSE India Quality and Yield Select Index is comprised of Indian equity securities traded on regulated stock exchanges in India. The India Index is designed to represent the Indian equity markets as a whole. The India Index has 50 constituents, spread among the following sectors: Information Technology, Health Sciences, Financial Services, Heavy Industry, Consumer Products and Other. The fund charges 78 bps in fees.iShares India 50 ETF INDY – P/E 27.68XThe underlying Nifty 50 Index measures the equity performance of the top 50 companies by free float market capitalization whose equity securities trade in the Indian securities markets. The fund charges 90 bps in fees. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI): ETF Research Reports Invesco India ETF (PIN): ETF Research Reports iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports Nifty India Financials ETF (INDF): ETF Research Reports First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF (NFTY): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks9 hr. 16 min. ago

Value Investors Should Aim High

Don't settle for low growth companies. Use the PEG ratio to find top growth and value stocks. (0:45) - Quarantine Discoveries: Safe Stock Plays(6:50) - Finding Cheap Stocks With Growth(11:20) - Tracey’s Top Stock Picks(26:30) - Episode Roundup: BGS, XOM, TPR, ANF, URBN, PVH, M, TLYS, KSS, HIBB, DKS, FL, CHH, BMOPodcast@Zacks.com Welcome to Episode #254 of the Value Investor Podcast.Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio, shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.Value investing is often thought of a the “boring” strategy.Investors only get to buy cheap, slow growth companies.But value investors shouldn’t settle for slow growth. It’s possible to find value stocks that also have strong growth.The combination of value and growth is rare, but that’s what makes it a powerful combination.Value investors should aim high. Don’t settle.Screening for Value and Growth StocksHow do you find stocks that have both value and growth?The PEG ratio is a powerful tool for value investors. It combines both a low P/E ratio and growth.A PEG ratio under 1.0 usually indicates a company has value.Additionally, adding the Zacks Ranks of #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy), the two top Zacks Ranks, to a screen should produce companies where the analysts are raising their earnings estimates.Using just those two fundamentals, the screen produced 95 stocks.5 Stocks with Low PEG Ratios1.       Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM has rallied nearly 50% this year as crude and natural gas prices have risen but it’s still cheap with a forward P/E of just 12.5 and a PEG ratio of 0.7. Investors also get a juicy dividend yielding 5.6%.2.       Tapestry TPR, the parent company of Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman, is expected to grow revenue by 11.6% this fiscal year and another 4.3% next fiscal year as luxury good demand remains strong on the economic reopening. It has a PEG of just 0.9.3.       Manpower Group MAN is in the talent business. When the global economy heats up, so does Manpower Group’s business. Earnings are expected to rise 93% in 2021 and another 21% in 2022. Yet it trades with a PEG ratio of just 0.65.4.       Choice Hotel International CHH has two hot luxury brands in Ascend and Cambria, which are seeing a lot of growth. While earnings are expected to rebound in 2021, up 77% off the coronavirus hit year of 2020, they are also expected to jump another 20% in 2022. It has a PEG ratio of 0.99.5.       Bank of Montreal BMO is a $67 billion market cap Canadian bank. It is expected to grow its revenue by 8.3% this year. While shares are up 37% this year, it is still cheap with a PEG ratio of 0.7. Shareholders are rewarded with a dividend, currently yielding 3.2%.What else should you know about screening for value stocks that also have growth?Listen to this week’s podcast to find out. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH): Free Stock Analysis Report Bank Of Montreal (BMO): Free Stock Analysis Report Tapestry, Inc. (TPR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks19 hr. 44 min. ago

Toll Brothers (TOL) is a Top-Ranked Growth Stock: Should You Buy?

The Zacks Style Scores offers investors a way to easily find top-rated stocks based on their investing style. Here's why you should take advantage. For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.What are the Zacks Style Scores?The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:Value ScoreFinding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.Momentum ScoreMomentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.How Style Scores Work with the Zacks RankA proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.That's where the Style Scores come in.To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.Stock to Watch: Toll Brothers (TOL)Based in Horsham, PA, Toll Brothers Inc. builds single-family detached and attached home communities; master planned luxury residential resort-style golf communities; and urban low, mid, and high-rise communities, principally on the land it develops and improves.TOL is a #2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.Additionally, the company could be a top pick for growth investors. TOL has a Growth Style Score of B, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 80% for the current fiscal year.Three analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.51 to $6.12 per share. TOL boasts an average earnings surprise of 32.6%.With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, TOL should be on investors' short list. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacks19 hr. 44 min. ago

lululemon (LULU) Gains from Initiatives Despite Supply Woes

lululemon (LULU) looks prim on improved store productivity and continued momentum in the digital business. Supply-chain challenges and higher freight are likely to be concerning. lululemon athletica inc. LULU has shown resilience in a tough market, which is plagued with industry-wide supply-chain challenges. The company has been benefiting from the robust response for its products, store productivity and continued digital momentum. Its robust business fundamentals combined with strong brand positioning in the athletic apparel space have also been drivers. These have resulted in the robust top and bottom-line trends for the company.However, lululemon has been witnessing supply-chain challenges, driven by the pandemic-led factory closures, congestion at ports and reduced airfreight capacity, which are likely to impact its business in the second half of fiscal 2021. It also continues to witness higher SG&A expenses.Factors Supporting Growthlululemon’s business momentum can be attributed to the revival of brick-and-mortar stores, driven by improved footfall, as well as the continued expansion in the e-commerce channel. Top-line growth continues to reflect strength across all categories, channels and geographies. The company is witnessing a rebound in brick-and-mortar sales, driven by an increase in-store traffic as consumers returned to stores for shopping.In second-quarter fiscal 2021, revenues at company-operated stores advanced 142% year over year and 9% on a 2-year CARG basis to $695.1 million. It continued to witness strong traffic trends, which increased more than 150% from the last year. Management pointed out that in-store productivity was in line with the comparable fiscal 2019 levels and reflected an improvement from 88% productivity in first-quarter fiscal 2021. As the COVID-led restrictions ease, lululemon had 95% of its stores open across the globe at the end of the fiscal second quarter.The company continues to remain focused on investments to enhance the in-store experience. It is leveraging its stores to facilitate omni-channel capabilities, including the buy online pick up in store and ship from store. It has implemented several strategies to improve the guest experience and reduce wait time. These include virtual waitlists, mobile POS and appointment shopping. The services enable reducing the time of waiting in line to enter the store as well as allow customers to complete some transactions like returns, exchanges and purchase of gift cards without entering the store.The company expects to capture the growing online demand and ensure a robust shopping experience through its accelerated e-commerce investments this year. It has been investing in developing sites, building transactional omni functionality and increasing fulfillment capabilities. The company continues to strengthen omni-channel capabilities such as curbside pickups, same-day deliveries and buy online pick up in store service. It is enhancing features like search, browse, checkout, personalization and payment methods across online platforms. The company plans to boost online category offerings and creative content.Its five-year Power of Three plan also bodes well. The company earlier anticipated delivering sales growth in the low-teens in the next five years (ending 2023) through the execution of this plan. It also expects some annual benefits of this plan, which include modest gross margin improvement, a slight reduction in SG&A costs, operating growth in excess of sales growth, earnings per share growth equal to or more than operating income growth, and capital expenditure of 6-8% of sales.lululemon provided expectations for the third quarter and raised its view for fiscal 2021. Management noted that its strong business momentum continued in the second half of fiscal 2021. Despite the headwinds related to COVID-19, including supply-chain disruptions, the company raised its guidance for fiscal 2021. Its financial position also keeps it on track to exceed targets under its Power of Three growth strategy.For third-quarter fiscal 2021, the company expects net sales of $1.4-$1.43 billion, indicating two-year CAGR growth of 24-25%. Adjusted earnings are anticipated to be $1.33-$1.38 per share, whereas it reported $1.16 in the prior-year quarter and 96 cents in third-quarter fiscal 2019.For fiscal 2021, the company expects net revenues of $6.19-$6.26 billion compared with $5.83-$5.91 billion stated earlier. The sales guidance implies a 2-year CAGR of 25%, which is higher than the 3-year CARG of 19%, leading up to 2020 and is significantly ahead of the low-teens CAGR targeted in the Power of Three growth plan. The fiscal 2021 sales view assumes phased reopening of the factories used for sourcing products in Vietnam in mid-September. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $7.38-$7.48 compared with $6.73-$6.86 mentioned earlier. This includes a modest dilution of 3-5% related to the MIRROR acquisition.Near-Term HurdlesThe company’s near-term outlook is mainly hampered by the ongoing supply-chain headwinds and the factory closures in some regions. These headwinds have also hurt the performance of biggies like NIKE NKE, PVH Corp PVH and Ralph Lauren RL in recent months.On its last reported quarter’s earnings call, management noted that some of the Vietnam factories, which used to source lululemon’s products, have closed due to another wave of COVID-19 outbreak. This has delayed deliveries of products in recent months. The factors impacted the company’s margins to some extent in second-quarter fiscal 2021.The company also continues to face headwinds related to capacity constraints and supply-chain challenges at ports and reduced air freight capacity. On a 2-year CAGR basis, inventory grew 26%. The company continues to anticipate further delayed inventory receipts, owing to issues related to port congestions and COVID impacts in some regions.At the end of third-quarter fiscal 2021, lululemon expects inventory levels to increase 15-20% from that reported in third-quarter fiscal 2020. The company is witnessing some delayed inventory receipts due to congestion at ports and the recent COVID-related closures of certain factories in Southern Vietnam. While the expected inventory level is enough to support its revenue projection, it is lower than the initially targeted levels due to supply-chain challenges.The company’s gross margin guidance for third-quarter fiscal 2021 includes a 200-bps impact of higher airfreight costs, owing to port congestions and capacity constraints. The gross margin view for fiscal 2021 includes an estimated 150-200-bps negative impact of additional freight costs compared with a 50-bps impact mentioned earlier. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): Free Stock Analysis Report lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): Free Stock Analysis Report PVH Corp. (PVH): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks19 hr. 44 min. ago

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck US equity futures, already sharply higher overnight, jumped this morning as a risk-on mood inspired by stellar bank earnings, overshadowed concern that supply snarls. a China property crunch, a tapering Fed and stagflation will weigh on the global recovery. Nasdaq futures jumped 1%, just ahead of the S&P 500 which was up 0.9%. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower to about 1.5%, and with the dollar lower as well, oil jumped. Bitcoin and the broader crypto space continued to rise. Shares in Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America jumped as their deal-making units rode a record wave of M&A. On the other end, Boeing shares fell more than 1% after a Dow Jones report said the plane maker is dealing with a new defect on its 787 Dreamliner. Here are some of the biggest other U.S. movers today: Occidental (OXY US) rises 1.6% in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to sell its interests in two Ghana offshore fields for $750m to Kosmos Energy and Ghana National Petroleum Plug Power (PLUG US) rises 3.3% premarket, extending gains from Wednesday, when it announced partnership with Airbus SE and Phillips 66 to find ways to harness hydrogen to power airplanes, vehicles and industry Esports Entertainment (GMBL US) shares rise 16% in U.S. premarket trading after the online gambling company reported its FY21 results and reaffirmed its FY22 guidance Perrigo  (PRGO US) gains 2.8% in premarket trading after Raymond James upgrades to outperform following acquisition of HRA Pharma and recent settlement of Irish tax dispute AT&T (T US) ticks higher in premarket trading after KeyBanc writes upgrades to sector weight from underweight, saying it seems harder to justify further downside from here Avis Budget (CAR US) may be active after getting its only negative rating among analysts as Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight with risk/reward seen pointing toward downside OrthoPediatrics (KIDS US) dipped 2% Wednesday postmarket after it said 3Q revenue was hurt by the surge in cases of Covid-19 delta variant and RSV within children’s hospitals combined with staff shortage Investors continue to evaluate the resilience of economic reopening to supply chain disruptions, a jump in energy prices and the prospect of reduced central bank support. In the earnings season so far, executives at S&P 500 companies mentioned the phrase “supply chain” about 3,000 times on investor calls as of Tuesday -- far higher than last year’s then-record figure. “Our constructive outlook for growth means that our asset allocation remains broadly pro-risk and we continue to be modestly overweight global equities,” according to Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors. “However, we have scaled back that position marginally because of growing pains which could impact sales and margins.” Europe's Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level in almost three weeks, boosted by gains in tech shares and miners. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose over 1% to best levels for the week. FTSE 100 rises 0.75%, underperforming at the margin. Miners and tech names are the strongest sectors with only healthcare stocks in small negative territory. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: THG shares advance as much as 10%, snapping a four-day losing streak, after a non-executive director bought stock while analysts at Goldman Sachs and Liberum defended their buy recommendations. Steico gains as much as 9.9%, the most since Jan., after the insulation manufacturer reported record quarterly revenue, which Warburg says “leaves no doubt” about underlying market momentum. Banco BPM climbs as much as 3.6% and is the day’s best performer on the FTSE MIB benchmark index; bank initiated at buy at Jefferies as broker says opportunity to internalize insurance business offers 9%-16% possible upside to 2023 consensus EPS and is not priced in by the market. Hays rises as much as 4.3% after the recruiter posted a jump in comparable net fees for the first quarter. Publicis jumps as much as 3.7%, the stock’s best day since July, with JPMorgan saying the advertising company’s results show a “strong” third quarter, though there are risks ahead. Kesko shares rise as much as 6.1%. The timing of this year’s third guidance upgrade was a surprise, Inderes says. Ubisoft shares fall as much as 5.5% after JPMorgan Cazenove (overweight) opened a negative catalyst watch, citing short-term downside risk to earnings ahead of results. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, boosted by a rebound in technology shares as traders focused on the ongoing earnings season and assessed economic-reopening prospects in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, as a sub-gauge of tech stocks rose, halting a three-day slide. Tokyo Electron contributed the most to the measure’s climb, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed up 0.4% ahead of its earnings release. India’s tech stocks rose following better-than-expected earnings for three leading firms in the sector. Philippine stocks were among Asia’s best performers as Manila began easing virus restrictions, which will allow more businesses in the capital to reopen this weekend. Indonesia’s stock benchmark rallied for a third-straight day, as the government prepared to reopen Bali to tourists. READ: Commodities Boom, Tourism Hopes Fuel Southeast Asia Stock Rally Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX, said FOMC minutes released overnight provided Asian markets with little direction, which may offer some opportunity for recouping recent losses. The report showed officials broadly agreed last month they should start reducing pandemic-era stimulus in mid-November or mid-December. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stayed below 1.6%, providing support for tech stocks.  “Markets seemed to conclude the near-term narrative is on pause until further evidence,” Spivak said. Shares in mainland China fell as the country reported factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September. Singapore’s stock benchmark pared initial losses as the country’s central bank unexpectedly tightened policy. Hong Kong’s equity market was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were steady to a tad higher, underperforming Bunds which advanced, led by the long end.  Fixed income is mixed: gilts bull steepen with short dates richening ~2.5bps, offering only a muted reaction to dovish commentary from BOE’s Tenreyro. Bunds rise with 10y futures breaching 169. USTs are relatively quiet with 5s30s unable to crack 100bps to the upside. Peripheral spreads widen slightly. In FX, the Turkish lira was again the overnight standout as it weakened to a record low after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired three central bankers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell and the greenback slipped against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen, with risk-sensitive and resource-based currencies leading gains; the euro rose to trade above $1.16 for the first time in a week.  The pound rose to more than a two-week high amid dollar weakness as traders wait for a raft of Bank of England policy makers to speak. Sweden’s krona temporarily came off an almost eight-month high against the euro after inflation fell short of estimates. The euro dropped to the lowest since November against the Swiss franc as banks targeted large option barriers and leveraged sell-stops under 1.0700, traders said; Currency traders are responding to stagflation risks by turning to the Swiss franc. The Aussie advanced to a five-week high versus the greenback even as a monthly jobs report showed employment fell in September; the jobless rate rose less than economists forecast. The kiwi was a among the top performers; RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said inflation pressures were becoming more persistent China’s yuan declined from a four-month high after the central bank signaled discomfort with recent gains by setting a weaker-than-expected reference rate. In commodities, crude futures extend Asia’s gains with WTI up ~$1 before stalling near $81.50. Brent regains a $84-handle. Spot gold drifts through Wednesday’s highs, adding $4 to print just shy of the $1,800/oz mark. Base metals are well bid with LME copper and aluminum gaining as much as 3%.  Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,382.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 464.38 MXAP up 0.7% to 196.12 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 642.66 Nikkei up 1.5% to 28,550.93 Topix up 0.7% to 1,986.97 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,558.28 Sensex up 0.7% to 61,190.63 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,311.73 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,988.64 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $83.98/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 93.84 German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.143% Euro little changed at $1.1615 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $84.13/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A flattening Treasury yield curve signals increasing concern Federal Reserve efforts to keep inflation in check will derail the recovery in the world’s largest economy China’s factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September, potentially adding to global inflation pressure if local businesses start passing on higher costs to consumers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired monetary policy makers wary of cutting interest rates further, driving the lira to record lows against the dollar with his midnight decree Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy settings, strengthening the local dollar, as the city-state joins policymakers globally concerned about risks of persistent inflation Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, the International Energy Agency said A tropical storm that’s lashing southern China mixed with Covid-related supply chain snarls is causing a ship backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, intensifying fears retail shelves may look rather empty come Christmas A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk A constructive mood was seen across Asia-Pac stocks with the region building on the mild positive bias stateside where the Nasdaq outperformed as tech and growth stocks benefitted from the curve flattening, with global risk appetite unfazed by the firmer US CPI data and FOMC Minutes that suggested the start of tapering in either mid-November of mid-December. The ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher as tech stocks found inspiration from the outperformance of US counterparts and with the mining sector buoyed by gains in underlying commodity prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) was the biggest gainer amid currency-related tailwinds and with the latest securities flow data showing a substantial shift by foreign investors to net purchases of Japanese stocks during the prior week. The KOSPI (+1.5%) conformed to the brightening picture amid signs of a slowdown in weekly infections, while the Singapore’s Straits Times Index (+0.3%) lagged for most of the session following weaker than expected Q3 GDP data, and after the MAS surprisingly tightened its FX-based policy by slightly raising the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The Shanghai Comp. (U/C) was initially kept afloat but with gains capped after slightly softer than expected loans and financing data from China and with participants digesting mixed inflation numbers in which CPI printed below estimates but PPI topped forecasts for a record increase in factory gate prices, while there was also an absence of Stock Connect flows with participants in Hong Kong away for holiday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher after the recent curve flattening stateside and rebound in T-notes with the US longer-end also helped by a solid 30yr auction, although gains for JGBs were capped amid the outperformance in Tokyo stocks and mostly weaker metrics at the 5yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Chinese Developer Shares Fall on Debt Crisis: Evergrande Update Japan’s Yamagiwa Says Abenomics Fell Short at Spreading Wealth China Seen Rolling Over Policy Loans to Keep Liquidity Abundant Malaysia’s 2020 Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest in Four Decades Bourses in Europe have modestly extended on the upside seen at the European cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; Stoxx 600 +0.9%) in a continuation of the firm sentiment experienced overnight. US equity futures have also conformed to the broader upbeat tone, with gains seen across the ES (+0.7%), NQ (+0.8%), RTY (+0.8%) and YM (+0.7%). The upside comes despite a lack of overly pertinent newsflow, with participants looking ahead to a plethora of central bank speakers. The major indices in Europe also see a broad-based performance, but the periphery narrowly outperforms, whilst the SMI (Unch) lags amid the sectorial underperformance seen in Healthcare. Overall, the sectors portray somewhat of a cyclical tilt. The Basic Resources sector is the clear winner and is closely followed by Tech and Financial Services. Individual moves are scarce as price action is largely dictated by the macro picture, but the tech sector is led higher by gains in chip names after the world's largest contract chipmaker TSMC (+3.1% pre-market) reported strong earnings and upgraded its revenue guidance. Top European News German 2021 Economic Growth Forecast Slashed on Supply Crunch U.K. Gas Shipper Stops Supplies in Another Blow to Power Firms Christmas Toy Shortages Loom as Cargo Clogs a Major U.K. Port Putin Is Back to Building Financial Fortress as Reserves Grow In FX, the Dollar and index by default have retreated further from Tuesday’s 2021 peak for the latter as US Treasury yields continue to soften and the curve realign in wake of yesterday’s broadly in line CPI data and FOMC minutes that set the schedule for tapering, but maintained a clear differential between scaling down the pace of asset purchases and the timing of rate normalisation. Hence, the Buck is losing bullish momentum with the DXY now eying bids and downside technical support under 94.000 having slipped beneath an early October low (93.804 from the 5th of the month vs 93.675 a day earlier) and the 21 DMA that comes in at 93.770 today between 94.090-93.754 parameters before the next IJC update, PPI data and a heavy slate of Fed speakers. NZD/AUD - No real surprise that the Kiwi has been given a new lease of life given that the RBNZ has already taken its first tightening step and put physical distance between the OCR and the US FFR, not to mention that the move sparked a major ‘sell fact’ after ‘buy rumour’ reaction. However, Nzd/Usd is back on the 0.7000 handle with additional impetus via favourable tailwinds down under as the Aud/Nzd cross is now nearer 1.0550 than 1.0600 even though the Aussie is also taking advantage of the Greenback’s fall from grace to reclaim 0.7400+ status. Note, Aud/Usd may be lagging somewhat on the back of a somewhat labour report overnight as the employment tally fell slightly short of expectations and participation dipped, but the jobless rate fell and full time jobs rose. Moreover, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle repeated that circumstances are different for Australia compared to countries where policy is tightening, adding that employment is positive overall, but there is not much improvement on the wage front. CAD/GBP/CHF - The next best majors in terms of reclaiming losses vs their US counterpart, with the Loonie also encouraged by a firm bounce in oil prices and other commodities in keeping with a general recovery in risk appetite. Usd/Cad is under 1.2400, while Cable is now over 1.3700 having clearly breached Fib resistance around 1.3663 and the Franc is probing 0.9200 for a big figure-plus turnaround from recent lows irrespective of mixed Swiss import and producer prices. EUR/JPY - Relative laggards, but the Euro has finally hurdled chart obstacles standing in the way of 1.1600 and gradually gathering impetus to pull away from decent option expiry interest at the round number and just above (1.5 bn and 1 bn 1.1610-20), and the Yen regrouping around the 113.50 axis regardless of dovish BoJ rhetoric. In short, board member Noguchi conceded that the Bank may have little choice but to extend pandemic relief support unless it becomes clear that the economy has returned to a pre-pandemic state, adding that more easing may be necessary if the jobs market does not improve from pent-up demand, though he doesn't see and immediate need to top up stimulus or big stagflation risk. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are continuing the grind higher seen since the European close yesterday as the risk tone remains supportive and in the aftermath of an overall bullish IEA oil market report. The IEA upgraded its 2021 and 2022 oil demand forecasts by 170k and 210k BPD respectively, which contrasts the EIA STEO and the OPEC MOMR – with the former upping its 2021 but cutting 2022 forecast, whilst the OPEC MOMR saw the 2021 demand forecast cut and 2022 was maintained. The IEA report however noted that the ongoing energy crisis could boost oil demand by 500k BPD, and oil demand could exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022. On this, China has asked Russia to double electricity supply between November-December. The morning saw commentary from various energy ministers, but perhaps the most telling from the Russian Deputy PM Novak who suggested Russia will produce 9.9mln BPD of oil in October (in-line with the quota), but that Russia has no problem in increasing oil output which can go to 11.3mln BPD (Russia’s capacity) and even more than that, but output will depend on market situation. Long story short, Russia can ramp up output but is currently caged by the OPEC+ pact. WTI Nov extended on gain about USD 81/bbl to a current high of USD 81.41/bbl (vs 80.41/bbl low) while its Brent counter topped USD 84.00/bbl to a USD 84.24/bbl high (vs 83.18/bbl low). As a reminder, the weekly DoEs will be released at 16:00BST/11:00EDT on account of the Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices have also moved higher in intraday, with the UK Nat Gas future +5.5% at the time of writing. Returning to the Russian Deputy PM Novak who noted that Nord Stream 2 will be ready for work in the next few days, still expects certification to occur and commercial supplies of gas via Nord Stream 2 could start following certification. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been drifting higher as the Buck wanes, with spot gold topping its 200 DMA (1,7995/oz) and in striking distance of its 100 DMA (1,799/oz) ahead of the USD 1,800/oz mark. Over to base metals, LME copper is again on a firmer footing, owing to the overall constructive tone across the market. Dalian iron ore meanwhile fell for a second straight day in a continuation of the downside seen as Beijing imposed tougher steel output controls for winter. World Steel Association also cut its global steel demand forecast to +4.5% in 2021 (prev. forecast +5.8%); +2.2% in 2022 (prev. forecast 2.7%). US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.3% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%; YoY, est. 7.1%, prior 6.7% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 6.3% 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 326,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.67m, prior 2.71m 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 53.4 Central Banks 8:35am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Virtual Discussion 9:45am: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Panel on Inclusive Growth 12pm: New York Fed’s Logan Gives Speech on Policy Implementation 1pm: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech 1pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Conference on Small Business Credit 6pm: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Inflation dominated the conversation yet again for markets yesterday, after another upside surprise from the US CPI data led to the increasing realisation that we’ll still be talking about the topic for some time yet. Equities were pretty subdued as they looked forward to the upcoming earnings season, but investor jitters were evident as the classic inflation hedge of gold (+1.87%) posted its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the US dollar (-0.46%) ended the session as the worst performer among the G10 currencies. Running through the details of that release, headline US consumer prices were up by +0.4% on a monthly basis in September (vs. +0.3% expected), marking the 5th time in the last 7 months that the figure has come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, though core prices were in line with consensus at +0.2% month-over-month. There were a number of drivers behind the faster pace, but food inflation (+0.93%) saw its biggest monthly increase since April 2020. Whilst some pandemic-sensitive sectors registered soft readings, housing-related prices were much firmer. Rent of primary residence grew +0.45%, its fastest pace since May 2001 and owners’ equivalent rent increased +0.43%, its strongest since June 2006. These housing gauges are something that Fed officials have signposted as having the potential to provide more durable upward pressure on inflation. The CPI release only added to speculation that the Fed would be forced to hike rates earlier than previously anticipated, and investors are now pricing in almost 4 hikes by the end of 2023, which is over a full hike more than they were pricing in just a month earlier. In response, the Treasury yield curve continued the previous day’s flattening, with the prospect of tighter monetary policy seeing the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to a post-pandemic high of 0.358%, whilst the 10yr decreased -4.0bps to 1.537%. That move lower in the 10yr yield was entirely down to lower real rates, however, which were down -7.4bps, suggesting investors were increasingly concerned about long-term growth prospects, whereas the 10yr inflation breakeven was up +3.3bps to 2.525%, its highest level since May. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr sovereign bond yields took a turn lower alongside Treasuries, with those on bunds (-4.2bps), OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-2.3bps) all falling. Recent inflation dynamics and issues on the supply-side are something that politicians have become increasingly attuned to, and President Biden gave remarks last night where he outlined efforts to address the supply-chain bottlenecks. This followed headlines earlier in the session that major ports in southern California would move to a 24/7 schedule to unclog delivery backlogs, and Mr. Biden also used the opportunity to push for the passage of the infrastructure plan. That comes as it’s also been reported by Reuters that the White House has been speaking with US oil and gas producers to see how prices can be brought lower. We should hear from Mr. Biden again today, who’s due to give an update on the Covid-19 response. On the topic of institutions that care about inflation, the September FOMC minutes suggested staff still remained optimistic that inflationary pressures would prove transitory, although Committee members themselves were predictably more split on the matter. Several participants pointed out that pandemic-sensitive prices were driving most of the gains, while some expressed concerns that high rates of inflation would feed into longer-term inflation expectations. Otherwise, the minutes all but confirmed DB’s US economists’ call for a November taper announcement, with monthly reductions in the pace of asset purchases of $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS. Markets took the news in their stride immediately following the release, reflecting how the build-up to this move has been gradually telegraphed through the year. Turning to equities, the S&P 500 managed to end its 3-day losing streak, gaining +0.30% by the close. Megacap technology stocks led the way, with the FANG+ index up +1.13% as the NASDAQ added +0.73%. On the other hand, cyclicals such as financials (-0.64%) lagged behind the broader index following flatter yield curve, and JPMorgan Chase (-2.64%) sold off as the company’s Q3 earnings release showed muted loan growth. Separately, Delta Air Lines (-5.76%) also sold off along with the broader S&P 500 airlines index (-3.51%), as they warned that rising fuel costs would threaten earnings over the current quarter. European indices posted a more solid performance than the US, with the STOXX 600 up +0.71%, though the sectoral balance was similar with tech stocks outperforming whilst the STOXX Banks index (-2.05%) fell back from its 2-year high the previous session. Overnight in Asia equities have put in a mixed performance, with the KOSPI (+1.17%) and the Nikkei (+1.01%) moving higher whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) and the CSI (-0.62%) have lost ground. Those moves follow the release of Chinese inflation data for September, which showed producer price inflation hit its highest in nearly 26 years, at +10.7% (vs. +10.5% expected), driven mostly by higher coal prices and energy-sensitive categories. On the other hand, the CPI measure for September came in slightly below consensus at +0.7% (vs. +0.8% expected), indicating that higher factory gate prices have not yet translated into consumer prices. Meanwhile, equity markets in the US are pointing to a positive start later on with S&P 500 futures up +0.32%. Of course, one of the drivers behind the renewal of inflation jitters has been the recent surge in commodity prices across the board, and we’ve seen further gains yesterday and this morning that will only add to the concerns about inflation readings yet to come. Oil prices have advanced yet again, with Brent Crude up +0.69% this morning to be on track to close at a 3-year high as it stands. That comes in spite of OPEC’s monthly oil market report revising down their forecast for world oil demand this year to 5.8mb/d, having been at 5.96mb/d last month. Elsewhere, European natural gas prices were up +9.24% as they continued to pare back some of the declines from last week, and a further two energy suppliers in the UK collapsed, Pure Planet and Colorado Energy, who supply quarter of a million customers between them. Otherwise, copper (+4.4x%) hit a 2-month high yesterday, and it up a further +1.01% this morning, Turning to Brexit, yesterday saw the European Commission put forward a set of adjustments to the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal that’s caused a significant dispute between the UK and the EU. The proposals from Commission Vice President Šefčovič would see an 80% reduction in checks on animal and plant-based products, as well as a 50% reduction in paperwork by reducing the documentation needed for goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It follows a speech by the UK’s David Frost on Tuesday, in which he said that Article 16 of the Protocol, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures, could be used “if necessary”. Mr. Frost is due to meet with Šefčovič in Brussels tomorrow. Running through yesterday’s other data, UK GDP grew by +0.4% in August (vs. +0.5% expected), and the July number was revised down to show a -0.1% contraction (vs. +0.1% growth previously). The release means that GDP in August was still -0.8% beneath its pre-pandemic level back in February 2020. To the day ahead now, and on the calendar we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 08:29.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) Loses 19.2% in 4 Weeks, Here"s Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend reversal for the stock. A downtrend has been apparent in Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 19.2% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.Guide to Identifying Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefitting from the inevitable rebound.However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.Why a Trend Reversal is Due for HCMThe RSI reading of 29.34 for HCM is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering HCM in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 4.3% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.Moreover, HCM currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hutchison China MediTech Limited (HCM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

After Plunging 8.1% in 4 Weeks, Here"s Why the Trend Might Reverse for Korea Electric Power (KEP)

Korea Electric Power (KEP) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend reversal for the stock. A downtrend has been apparent in Korea Electric Power (KEP) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 8.1% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.Guide to Identifying Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefitting from the inevitable rebound.However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.Here's Why KEP Could Experience a TurnaroundThe heavy selling of KEP shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 27.63. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.The RSI value is not the only factor that indicates a potential turnaround for the stock in the near term. On the fundamental side, there has been strong agreement among the sell-side analysts covering the stock in raising earnings estimates for the current year. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for KEP has increased 100%. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.Moreover, KEP currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEP): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

Growing COVID-19 Testing Demand to Boost Abbott"s (ABT) Q3 Earnings

Through July to September, Abbott's (ABT) Diagnostic business is likely to have benefited from the significant surge in the new COVID-19 case counts. Abbott Laboratories ABT is slated to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 20, before market open.In the last reported quarter, the company posted a negative earnings surprise of 15.84%. Over the trailing four quarters, its earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on one, the average beat being 7.65%.Let's see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.Factors at PlayFrom May through July, a significant reduction in the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States and other major developed countries accelerated the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine globally (with the U.S. health authority’s restrictions for testing on fully-vaccinated individuals), which hurt Abbott’s sales considerably.In such a situation, Abbott had to lower its 2021 guidance in anticipation of the considerable reduction in the recent and projected COVID-19 Diagnostic testing demand.However, the later months of the third quarter saw an entire transformation of the scenario — all thanks to the emergence of the more lethal and more contagious Delta variant of COVID-19. Accordingly, like the other industry players, through July to September, the company‘s Diagnostics business is likely to have benefited from the significant surge in the new COVID-19 case count.As a result, the company is expected to report sequentially stronger diagnostics results in the third quarter.Within Nutrition, from the beginning of the pandemic till the last reported quarter, Abbott gained consistently in terms of adult nutrition products sales. In the third quarter too, the company is anticipated to have registered stellar U.S. and international growth in Ensure (adult complete and balanced nutrition brand) and Glucerna (diabetes nutrition brand). According to the company, the two factors that are driving the adult nutrition growth rate are — the new users entering the category in this period and the existing customers increasing their usage.Abbott Laboratories Price and EPS Surprise Abbott Laboratories price-eps-surprise | Abbott Laboratories QuoteWithin pediatric nutrition, the company, however, witnessed a significant lag in sales from the start of the pandemic till April 2021. We note that paediatric healthcare took a backseat through these months as the earlier variants of COVID-19 did not impact child health at all. Nonetheless, sales improved in the second quarter on a strong demand for Pedialyte, the global rehydration brand of Abbott, driven by the increased investment in direct consumer promotion. With a number of researches coming up on the findings that the new variants of COVID-19 are expected to harm child health more (the still unvaccinated band of the world population), this uptrend within pediatric nutrition is likely to have continued in the third quarter as well.Abbott’s other consumer facing businesses, which include diabetes care and established pharmaceuticals, have been catching up pace backed by a continued strong cadence of new product instructions. This uptrend is likely to have majorly contributed to the company third-quarter performance.Within Established Pharmaceuticals Division (EPD), the company has been witnessing visible signs of a rebound, reflecting sequential improvement based on its stable business model. New product launches across the key emerging markets have been majorly boosting the EPD business in the recent months. The performance in the third quarter is likely to have been driven by growth in India and Brazil, apart from the United States where the COVID-19 cases have been shooting up. The business is anticipated to have grown in these regions where patients are seeking branded generic medicinesRevenues are likely to have improved in the company’s Diabetes Care business, as it has been on a substantially strong growth trajectory in recent times. Abbott has been in the limelight for developments in its flagship, sensor-based continuous glucose monitoring system, widely known as the FreeStyle Libre System.In 2020, the company received the U.S. approval for Freestyle Libre 2 (an integrated continuous glucose monitoring or iCGM system for adults and children), the CE Mark for Libre 3 (integrates Libre's accuracy and performance into the world's smallest fitness disposable sensor) and Libre Sense Glucose Sport (which is Abbott’s initial step in a very intentional approach to pursue mass market biosensor opportunities beyond diabetes).These developments are anticipated to have led to full-quarter contributions to the Diabetes Care business’ top line during the third quarter.Abbott, in July, projected third-quarter 2021 reported earnings per share from continuing operations of at least 90 cents. However, this took into consideration the company’s apprehension of a sequential reduction in the COVID-19 testing-related sales compared to the second quarter.EstimatesFor third-quarter 2021, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues of $9.43 billion indicates a 6.5% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 92 cents, suggesting a 6.1% decline year on year.Earnings WhispersPer our proven model, a stock with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), has higher chances of beating estimates. That is not the case here as you can see:Earnings ESP: Abbott has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks Worth a LookHere are a few medical stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH has an Earnings ESP of +1.95% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2, currently. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 14.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX has an Earnings ESP of +12.10% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct 21.West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WST has an Earnings ESP of +1.93% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked stock. The company will announce third-quarter figures on Oct 28. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Abbott Laboratories (ABT): Free Stock Analysis Report UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Free Stock Analysis Report Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX): Free Stock Analysis Report West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

Thermo Fisher (TMO) to Report Q3 Earnings: What"s in Store?

Thermo Fisher's (TMO) recent launches within Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry like Thermo Scientific Orbitrap IQ-X Tribrid Mass Spectrometer should have contributed to its Q3 top line. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO is slated to release third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 20, before market open.In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of $5.60 per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.63%. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.40%.Let's discuss the factors that are likely to get reflected in the upcoming results.Factors at PlayThrough the first half of 2021, Thermo Fisher’s Analytical Instruments segment registered a strong rebound despite the negative impact of COVID-19 in the form of muted demand on global economic slowdown. In the third quarter too, we expect this segment to have registered strong growth in Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry, and the Materials and Structural Analysis businesses.The company’s recent launches like the new Thermo Scientific Orbitrap IQ-X Tribrid Mass Spectrometer (which further extends the impact of industry-leading Orbitrap platform to accelerate small molecule analysis from metabolites and other complex compounds) should have contributed to its Q3 top line.Further, the end markets for chemical analysis are gradually returning to growth. In materials and structural analysis, Thermo Fisher launched the Thermo Scientific Spectra Ultra, a new-generation scanning transmission electron microscope for material science applications. Given the fact that customer demand is high, we expect the businesses to have performed sequentially better in Q3.Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. price-eps-surprise | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. QuoteWithin the Life-Science Solutions segment, the company is expected to have registered robust growth in genetic sciences, biosciences and bioproduction businesses on the ramp-up of economic activity globally and the company’s pandemic response. Within biosciences, Thermo Fisher recently launched several new products, including two instruments to advance cell analysis — the Invitrogen Bigfoot Spectral Sorter and the Invitrogen Attune CytPix Flow Cytometer. These are expected to have strongly contributed to the company’s Q3 revenues.Most of the company’s COVID-19 response revenues are likely to have been recognized in the Life-Science Solutions segment. With the emergence of the Delta variant through the third-quarter months, this segment is likely to have also registered top-line contributions from growing demand for COVID-19 testing. Further, vaccine and therapy production supplies (recognized in the BioProduction and Biosciences businesses) should also have contributed strongly to the company’s growth in Q3.The Specialty Diagnostics segment (Clinical Diagnostics business from the molecular controls that go into testing kits) too is expected to have registered positive contributions in the form of continued growth in the immunodiagnostics and transplant diagnostics businesses. Looking at the consistently growing resurgence of the virus-led healthcare needs, the Microbiology, Healthcare Market Channel and Clinical Diagnostics businesses are expected to have witnessed strong growth.Within the Laboratory Products and Services segment, the company is expected to have gained from strong productivity and volume leverage within the pharma services business and the research and safety market channel. Also, the PPE business in the research and safety market channel as well as plastics used in testing workflows and cold storage equipment manufactured by the lab products business are expected to have generated strong sales growth in the second quarter.Q3 EstimatesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues of $8.77 billion for the third quarter suggests a 3% dip from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings of $4.60 per share indicates an 18.3% plunge from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.What Our Quantitative Model PredictsPer our proven model, stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of beating estimates. This is exactly the case as you can see:Earnings ESP: Thermo Fisher has an Earnings ESP of +8.27%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.Other Stocks Worth a LookHere are three other medical stocks with the right mix of elements to surpass expectations this earnings season.UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH has an Earnings ESP of +1.95% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to release its third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 14.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX has an Earnings ESP of +12.10% and a Zacks Rank of 2, at present. The company is slated to release its third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 21.West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WST has an Earnings ESP of +1.93% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked stock. The company is slated to release its third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 28. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Free Stock Analysis Report Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX): Free Stock Analysis Report Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO): Free Stock Analysis Report West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report For the second day in a row, an overnight slump in equity futures sparked by concerns about iPhone sales (with Bloomberg reporting at the close on Tuesday that iPhone 13 production target may be cut by 10mm units due to chip shortages) and driven be more weakness out of China was rescued thanks to aggressive buying around the European open. At 800 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.50 points, or 0.4% ahead of the CPI report due at 830am ET. 10Y yields dipped to 1.566%, the dollar was lower and Brent crude dropped below $83. JPMorgan rose as much as 0.8% in premarket trading after the firm’s merger advisory business reported its best quarterly profit. On the other end, Apple dropped 1% lower in premarket trading, a day after Bloomberg reported that the technology giant is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to prolonged chip shortages. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Suppliers Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US), Qorvo (ORVO) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS US) slipped Tuesday postmarket Koss (KOSS US) shares jump 23% in U.S. premarket trading in an extension of Tuesday’s surge after tech giant Apple was rebuffed in two patent challenges against the headphones and speakers firm Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares were up 2.7% in U.S. premarket trading after it announced a $10.0 billion stock buyback International Paper (IP US) in focus after its board authorized a program to acquire up to $2b of the company’s common stock; cut quarterly dividend by 5c per share Smart Global (SGH US) shares rose 2% Tuesday postmarket after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Wayfair (W US) shares slide 1.8% in thin premarket trading after the stock gets tactical downgrade to hold at Jefferies Plug Power (PLUG US) gains 4.9% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley upgrades the fuel cell systems company to overweight, saying in note that it’s “particularly well positioned” to be a leader in the hydrogen economy Wall Street ended lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors grew jittery in the run-up to earnings amid worries about supply chain problems and higher prices affecting businesses emerging from the pandemic. As we noted last night, the S&P 500 has gone 27 straight days without rallying to a fresh high, the longest such stretch since last September, signaling some fatigue in the dip-buying that pushed the market up from drops earlier this year. Focus now turn to inflation data, due at 0830 a.m. ET, which will cement the imminent arrival of the Fed's taper.  "A strong inflation will only reinforce the expectation that the Fed would start tapering its bond purchases by next month, that's already priced in," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "Yet, a too strong figure could boost expectations of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and that is not necessarily fully priced in." The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, due later in the day, will also be scrutinized for signals that the days of crisis-era policy were numbered. Most European equities reverse small opening losses and were last up about 0.5%, as news that German software giant SAP increased its revenue forecast led tech stocks higher. DAX gained 0.7% with tech, retail and travel names leading. FTSE 100, FTSE MIB and IBEX remained in the red. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entra shares gain as much as 10% after Balder increases its stake and says it intends to submit a mandatory offer. Spie jumps as much as 10%, the biggest intraday gain in more than a year, after the French company pulled out of the process to buy Engie’s Equans services unit. Man Group rises as much as 8.3% after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund announced quarterly record inflows. 3Q21 net inflows were a “clear beat” and confirm pipeline strength, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Barratt Developments climbs as much as 6.3%, with analysts saying the U.K. homebuilder’s update shows current trading is improving. Recticel climbs 15% to its highest level in more than 20 years as the stock resumes trading after the company announced plans to sell its foams unit to Carpenter Co. Bossard Holding rises as much as 9.1% to a record high after the company reported 3Q earnings that ZKB said show strong growth. Sartorius gains as much as 5.9% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to hold from sell and raises its price target, saying it expects “impressive earnings growth” to continue for the lab equipment company. SAP jumps as much as 5% after the German software giant increased its revenue forecast owing to accelerating cloud sales. Just Eat Takeaway slides as much as 5.8% in Amsterdam to the lowest since March 2020 after a 3Q trading update. Analysts flagged disappointing orders as pandemic restrictions eased, and an underwhelming performance in the online food delivery firm’s U.S. market. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks posted a modest advance as investors awaited key inflation data out of the U.S. and Hong Kong closed its equity market because of typhoon Kompasu. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after fluctuating between gains and losses, with chip and electronics manufacturers sliding amid concerns over memory chip supply-chain issues and Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets. Hong Kong’s $6.3 trillion market was shut as strong winds and rain hit the financial hub.  “Broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Katy L. Huberty wrote in a note. The most significant iPhone production bottleneck stems from a “shortage of camera modules for the iPhone 13 Pro/Pro Max due to low utilization rates at a Sharp factory in southern Vietnam,” they added. Wednesday’s direction-less trading illustrated the uncertainty in Asian markets as traders reassess earnings forecasts to factor in inflation and supply chain concerns. U.S. consumer price index figures and FOMC minutes due overnight may move shares. Southeast Asian indexes rose thanks to their cyclical exposure. Singapore’s stock gauge was the top performer in the region, rising to its highest in about two months, before the the nation’s central bank decides on monetary policy on Thursday. Japanese stocks fell for a second day as electronics makers declined amid worries about memory chip supply-chain issues and concerns over Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets.  The Topix index fell 0.4% to 1,973.83 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.3% to 28,140.28. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 608 rose and 1,489 fell, while 84 were unchanged. Japanese Apple suppliers such as TDK, Murata and Taiyo Yuden slid. The U.S. company is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units as prolonged chip shortages hit its flagship product, according to people with knowledge of the matter Australian stocks closed lower as banks and miners weighed on the index. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,272.50, dragged down by banks and miners as iron ore extended its decline. All other subgauges edged higher. a2 Milk surged after its peer Bubs Australia reported growing China sales and pointed to a better outlook for daigou channels. Bank of Queensland tumbled after its earnings release. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 13,025.18. In rates, Treasuries extended Tuesday’s bull-flattening gains, led by gilts and, to a lesser extent, bunds. Treasuries were richer by ~2bps across the long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s by about that much; U.K. 30-year yield is down nearly 7bp, with same curve flatter by ~6bp. Long-end gilts outperform in a broad-based bull flattening move that pushed 30y gilt yields down ~7bps back near 1.38%. Peripheral spreads widen slightly to Germany. Cash USTs bull flatten but trade cheaper by ~2bps across the back end to both bunds and gilt ahead of today’s CPI release. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.2% and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers; the Treasury curve flattened, mainly via falling yields in the long- end, The euro advanced to trade at around $1.1550 and the Bund yield curve flattened, with German bonds outperforming Treasuries. The euro’s volatility skew versus the dollar shows investors remain bearish the common currency as policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains for now. The pound advanced with traders shrugging off the U.K.’s weaker-than-expected economic growth performance in August. Australia’s sovereign yield curve flattened for a second day while the currency underperformed its New Zealand peer amid a drop in iron ore prices. The yen steadied after four days of declines. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range with WTI near $80, Brent dipping slightly below $83. Spot gold pops back toward Tuesday’s best levels near $1,770/oz. Base metals are in the green with most of the complex up at least 1%. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,346.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.04 MXAP up 0.2% to 194.60 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 638.16 Nikkei down 0.3% to 28,140.28 Topix down 0.4% to 1,973.83 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,561.76 Sensex up 0.8% to 60,782.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,272.54 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,944.41 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,768.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 94.30 German 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to -0.127% Euro little changed at $1.1553 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Vladimir Putin wants to press the EU to rewrite some of the rules of its gas market after years of ignoring Moscow’s concerns, to tilt them away from spot-pricing toward long-term contracts favored by Russia’s state run Gazprom, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Russia is also seeking rapid certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany to boost gas deliveries, they said. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street lenders after his title officially expires this week. The EU will offer a new package of concessions to the U.K. that would ease trade barriers in Northern Ireland, as the two sides prepare for a new round of contentious Brexit negotiations. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is on course to raise taxes and cut spending to control the budget deficit, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has warned interest rates are likely to rise in the coming months to curb a rapid surge in prices. Together, those moves would mark a simultaneous major tightening of both policy levers just months after the biggest recession in a century -- an unprecedented move since the BoE gained independence in 1997. Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, was charged with bribery in Slovakia. Kazimir, who heads the country’s central bank, rejected the allegations A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside with global risk appetite cautious amid the rate hike bets in US and heading into key events including US CPI and FOMC Minutes, while there were also mild headwinds for US equity futures after the closing bell on reports that Apple is set to reduce output of iPhones by 10mln from what was initially planned amid the chip shortage. ASX 200 (unch.) was little changed as gains in gold miners, energy and tech were offset by losses in financials and the broader mining sector, with softer Westpac Consumer Confidence also limiting upside in the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was pressured at the open as participants digested mixed Machinery Orders data which showed the largest M/M contraction since February 2018 and prompted the government to cut its assessment on machinery orders, although the benchmark index gradually retraced most its losses after finding support around the 28k level and amid the recent favourable currency moves. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) also declined as participants digested mixed Chinese trade data in which exports topped estimates but imports disappointed and with Hong Kong markets kept shut due to a typhoon warning. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with price action contained after the curve flattening stateside and tentative mood heading to upcoming risk events, although prices were kept afloat amid the BoJ’s purchases in the market for around JPY 1tln of JGBs predominantly focused on 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Gold Edges Higher on Weaker Dollar Before U.S. Inflation Report RBA Rate Hike Expectations Too Aggressive, TD Ameritrade Says LG Electronics Has Series of Stock-Target Cuts After Profit Miss The mood across European stocks has improved from the subdued cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) despite a distinct lack of newsflow and heading into the official start of US earnings season, US CPI and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and trade in modest positive territory across the board, with the NQ (+0.5%) narrowly outperforming owing to the intraday fall in yields, alongside the sectorial outperformance seen in European tech amid tech giant SAP (+4.7%) upgrading its full FY outlook, reflecting the strong business performance which is expected to continue to accelerate cloud revenue growth. As such, the DAX 40 (+0.7%) outperformed since the cash open, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is weighed on by underperformance in its heavyweight Banking and Basic Resources sectors amid a decline in yields and hefty losses in iron ore prices. Elsewhere, the CAC 40 (+0.3%) is buoyed by LMVH (+2.0%) after the luxury name topped revenue forecasts and subsequently lifted the Retail sector in tandem. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear bias. In terms of individual movers, Volkswagen (+3.5%) was bolstered amid Handelsblatt reports in which the Co was said to be cutting some 30k jobs as costs are too high vs competitors, whilst separate sources suggested the automaker is said to be mulling spinning off its Battery Cell and charging unit. Chipmakers meanwhile see mixed fortunes in the aftermath of sources which suggested Apple (-0.7% pre-market) is said to be slashing output amid the chip crunch. Top European News The Hut Shares Swing as Strategy Day Feeds Investor Concern U.K. Economy Grows Less Than Expected as Services Disappoint Man Group Gets $5.3 Billion to Lift Assets to Another Record Jeff Ubben and Singapore’s GIC Back $830 Million Fertiglobe IPO In FX, the Dollar looks somewhat deflated or jaded after yesterday’s exertions when it carved out several fresh 2021 highs against rival currencies and a new record peak vs the increasingly beleaguered Turkish Lira. In index terms, a bout of profit taking, consolidation and position paring seems to have prompted a pull-back from 94.563 into a marginally lower 94.533-246 range awaiting potentially pivotal US inflation data, more Fed rhetoric and FOMC minutes from the last policy meeting that may provide more clues or clarity about prospects for near term tapering. NZD/GBP - Both taking advantage of the Greenback’s aforementioned loss of momentum, but also deriving impetus from favourable crosswinds closer to home as the Kiwi briefly revisited 0.6950+ terrain and Aud/Nzd retreats quite sharply from 1.0600+, while Cable has rebounded through 1.3600 again as Eur/Gbp retests support south of 0.8480 yet again, or 1.1800 as a reciprocal. From a fundamental perspective, Nzd/Usd may also be gleaning leverage from the more forward-looking Activity Outlook component of ANZ’s preliminary business survey for October rather than a decline in sentiment, and Sterling could be content with reported concessions from the EU on NI customs in an effort to resolve the Protocol impasse. EUR/CAD/AUD/CHF - Also reclaiming some lost ground against the Buck, with the Euro rebounding from around 1.1525 to circa 1.1560, though not technically stable until closer to 1.1600 having faded ahead of the round number on several occasions in the last week. Meanwhile, the Loonie is straddling 1.2450 in keeping with WTI crude on the Usd 80/brl handle, the Aussie is pivoting 0.7350, but capped in wake of a dip in Westpac consumer confidence, and the Franc is rotating either side of 0.9300. JPY - The Yen seems rather reluctant to get too carried away by the Dollar’s demise or join the broad retracement given so many false dawns of late before further depreciation and a continuation of its losing streak. Indeed, the latest recovery has stalled around 113.35 and Usd/Jpy appears firmly underpinned following significantly weaker than expected Japanese m/m machinery orders overnight. SCANDI/EM - Not much upside in the Sek via firmer Swedish money market inflation expectations and perhaps due to the fact that actual CPI data preceded the latest survey and topped consensus, but the Cnh and Cny are firmer on the back of China’s much wider than forecast trade surplus that was bloated by exports exceeding estimates by some distance in contrast to imports. Elsewhere, further hawkish guidance for the Czk as CNB’s Benda contends that high inflation warrants relatively rapid tightening, but the Try has not derived a lot of support from reports that Turkey is in talks to secure extra gas supplies to meet demand this winter, according to a Minister, and perhaps due to more sabre-rattling from the Foreign Ministry over Syria with accusations aimed at the US and Russia. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures see another choppy session within recent and elevated levels – with the former around USD 80.50/bbl (80.79-79.87/bbl) and the latter around 83.35/bbl (83.50-82.65/bbl range). The complex saw some downside in conjunction with jawboning from the Iraqi Energy Minster, who state oil price is unlikely to increase further, whilst at the same time, the Gazprom CEO suggested that the oil market is overheated. Nonetheless, prices saw a rebound from those lows heading into the US inflation figure, whilst the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for 12:00BST/07:00EDT. Although the release will not likely sway prices amidst the myriad of risk events on the docket, it will offer a peek into OPEC's current thinking on the market. As a reminder, the weekly Private Inventory report will be released tonight, with the DoE's slated for tomorrow on account of Monday's Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices, meanwhile, are relatively stable. Russia's Kremlin noted gas supplies have increased to their maximum possible levels, whilst Gazprom is sticking to its contractual obligations, and there can be no gas supplies beyond those obligations. Over to metals, spot gold and silver move in tandem with the receding Buck, with spot gold inching closer towards its 50 DMA at 1,776/oz (vs low 1,759.50/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper has regained a footing above USD 9,500/t as stocks grind higher. Conversely, iron ore and rebar futures overnight fell some 6%, with overnight headlines suggesting that China has required steel mills to cut winter output. Further from the supply side, Nyrstar is to limit European smelter output by up to 50% due to energy costs. Nyrstar has a market-leading position in zinc and lead. LME zinc hit the highest levels since March 2018 following the headlines US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 5.3%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Sept. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.9%, revised -1.4% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap So tonight it’s my first ever “live” parents evening and then James Bond via Wagamama. Given my daughter (6) is the eldest in her year and the twins (4) the youngest (plus additional youth for being premature), I’m expecting my daughter to be at least above average but for my boys to only just about be vaguely aware of what’s going on around them. Poor things. For those reading yesterday, the Cameo video of Nadia Comanenci went down a storm, especially when she mentioned our kids’ names, but the fact that there was no birthday cake wasn’t as popular. So I played a very complicated, defence splitting 80 yard through ball but missed an open goal. Anyway ahead of Bond tonight, with all this inflation about I’m half expecting him to be known as 008 going forward. The next installment of the US prices saga will be seen today with US CPI at 13:30 London time. This is an important one, since it’s the last CPI number the Fed will have ahead of their next policy decision just 3 weeks from now, where investors are awaiting a potential announcement on tapering asset purchases. Interestingly the August reading last month was the first time so far this year that the month-on-month measure was actually beneath the consensus expectation on Bloomberg, with the +0.3% growth being the slowest since January. Famous last words but this report might not be the most interesting since it may be a bit backward looking given WTI oil is up c.7.5% in October alone. In addition, used cars were up +5.4% in September after falling in late summer. So given the 2-3 month lag for this to filter through into the CPI we won’t be getting the full picture today. I loved the fact from his speech last night that the Fed’s Bostic has introduced a “transitory” swear jar in his office. More on the Fedspeak later. In terms of what to expect this time around though, our US economists are forecasting month-on-month growth of +0.41% in the headline CPI, and +0.27% for core, which would take the year-on-year rates to +5.4% for headline and +4.1% for core. Ahead of this, inflation expectations softened late in the day as Fed officials were on the hawkish side. The US 10yr breakeven dropped -1.9bps to 2.49% after trading at 2.527% earlier in the session. This is still the 3rd highest closing level since May, and remains only 7bps off its post-2013 closing high. Earlier, inflation expectations continued to climb in Europe, where the 5y5y forward inflation swap hit a post-2015 high of 1.84%. Also on inflation, the New York Fed released their latest Survey of Consumer Expectations later in the European session, which showed that 1-year ahead inflation expectations were now at +5.3%, which is the highest level since the survey began in 2013, whilst 3-year ahead expectations were now at +4.2%, which was also a high for the series. The late rally in US breakevens, coupled with lower real yields (-1.6bps) meant that the 10yr Treasury yield ended the session down -3.5bps at 1.577% - their biggest one day drop in just over 3 weeks. There was a decent flattening of the yield curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to 0.34%, its highest level since the pandemic began as the market priced in more near-term Fed rate hikes. In the Euro Area it was a very different story however, with 10yr yields rising to their highest level in months, including among bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+1.0bps). That rise in the 10yr bund yield left it at -0.09%, taking it above its recent peak earlier this year to its highest closing level since May 2019. Interestingly gilts (-4.0bps) massively out-performed after having aggressively sold off for the last week or so. Against this backdrop, equity markets struggled for direction as they awaited the CPI reading and the start of the US Q3 earnings season today. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (-0.24%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) had both posted modest losses as they awaited the next catalyst. Defensive sectors were the outperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. Real estate (+1.34%) and utilities (+0.67%) were among the best performing US stocks, though some notable “reopening” industries outperformed as well including airlines (+0.83%), hotels & leisure (+0.51%). News came out after the US close regarding the global chip shortage, with Bloomberg reporting that Apple, who are one of the largest buyers of chips, would revise down their iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by 10 million units. Recent rumblings from chip producers suggest that the problems are expected to persist, which will make central bank decisions even more complicated over the coming weeks as they grapple with increasing supply-side constraints that push up inflation whilst threatening to undermine the recovery. Speaking of central bankers, Vice Chair Clarida echoed his previous remarks and other communications from the so-called “core” of the FOMC that the current bout of inflation would prove largely transitory and that underlying trend inflation was hovering close to 2%, while admitting that risks were tilted towards higher inflation. Atlanta Fed President Bostic took a much harder line though, noting that price pressures were expanding beyond the pandemic-impacted sectors, and measures of inflation expectations were creeping higher. Specifically, he said, “it is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures — mainly the intense and widespread supply-chain disruptions — will not be brief.” His ‘transitory swear word jar’ for his office was considerably more full by the end of his speech. As highlighted above, while President Bostic spoke US 10yr breakevens dropped -2bps and then continued declining through the New York afternoon. In what is likely to be Clarida’s last consequential decision on monetary policy before his term expires, he noted it may soon be time to start a tapering program that ends in the middle of next year, in line with our US economics team’s call for a November taper announcement. In that vein, our US economists have updated their forecasts for rate hikes yesterday, and now see liftoff taking place in December 2022, followed by 3 rate increases in each of 2023 and 2024. That comes in light of supply disruptions lifting inflation, a likely rise in inflation expectations (which are sensitive to oil prices), and measures of labour market slack continuing to outperform. For those interested, you can read a more in-depth discussion of this here. Turning to commodities, yesterday saw a stabilisation in prices after the rapid gains on Monday, with WTI (+0.15%) and Brent Crude (-0.27%) oil prices seeing only modest movements either way, whilst iron ore prices in Singapore were down -3.45%. That said it wasn’t entirely bad news for the asset class, with Chinese coal futures (+4.45%) hitting fresh records, just as aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (+0.13%) eked out another gain to hit a new post-2008 high. Overnight in Asia, equity markets are seeing a mixed performance with the KOSPI (+1.24%) posting decent gains, whereas the CSI (-0.06%), Nikkei (-0.22%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) have all lost ground. The KOSPI’s strength came about on the back of a decent jobs report, with South Korea adding +671k relative to a year earlier, the most since March 2014. The Hong Kong Exchange is closed however due to the impact of typhoon Kompasu. Separately, coal futures in China are up another +8.00% this morning, so no sign of those price pressures abating just yet following recent floods. Meanwhile, US equity futures are pointing to little change later on, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Here in Europe, we had some fresh Brexit headlines after the UK’s Brexit minister, David Frost, said that the Northern Ireland Protocol “is not working” and was not protecting the Good Friday Agreement. He said that he was sharing a new amended Protocol with the EU, which comes ahead of the release of the EU’s own proposals on the issue today. But Frost also said that “if we are going to get a solution we must, collectively, deliver significant change”, and that Article 16 which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures could be used “if necessary”. Elsewhere yesterday, the IMF marginally downgraded their global growth forecast for this year, now seeing +5.9% growth in 2021 (vs. +6.0% in July), whilst their 2022 forecast was maintained at +4.9%. This masked some serious differences between countries however, with the US downgraded to +6.0% in 2021 (vs. +7.0% in July), whereas Italy’s was upgraded to +5.8% (vs. +4.9% in July). On inflation they said that risks were skewed to the upside, and upgraded their forecasts for the advanced economies to +2.8% in 2021, and to +2.3% in 2022. Looking at yesterday’s data, US job openings declined in August for the first time this year, falling to 10.439m (vs. 10.954m expected). But the quits rate hit a record of 2.9%, well above its pre-Covid levels of 2.3-2.4%. Here in the UK, data showed the number of payroll employees rose by +207k in September, while the unemployment rate for the three months to August fell to 4.5%, in line with expectations. And in a further sign of supply-side issues, the number of job vacancies in the three months to September hit a record high of 1.102m. Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey results came in beneath expectations, with the current situation declining to 21.6 (vs. 28.0 expected), whilst expectations fell to 22.3 (vs. 23.5 expected), its lowest level since March 2020. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

5 Solid Retail Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Holiday Season

Retailers with a strong online presence like Walmart (WMT), Macy's (M), and Gap (GPS) are likely to benefit in the near term. The holiday season is around the corner and retailers are upbeat about sales getting a boost from aggressive buying on important days like Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas Eve. Retail sales had taken a hit last year but the holiday season proved to be good.With economic reopening in progress and the vaccination drive in full swing, the picture looks a lot brighter this year. This is likely to further aid the retail sector this year as predictions are of record sales both in percentage points and dollars spent.Holiday Season to Boost Retail SalesDespite the pandemic hitting retailers hard last year, the holiday season came as a savior, with sales hitting record high. E-commerce was largely responsible for this. Experts predict that this year too will be equally great, with the holiday season starting early. According to Deloitte, retail sales are projected to jump between 7% and 9% and will exceed 2020’s increase of 5.8%. However, Deloitte isn’t the only one that sees retail sales getting a boost this holiday season.According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, holiday season retail sales are projected to grow 7.4% on a year-over-year basis and grow 11.1% from 2019. One of the major reasons for the jump will be due to a rebound in in-store shopping, which was not possible last year due to the pandemic. The ‘75 Days of Christmas’ holiday season will begin in October, with sales expected to grow 6.8% during this period, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse.Much like these two firms, Bain also predicts 7% year-over-year growth in retail sales this holiday season, reaching $800 billion.Great Holiday Season AheadRetailers bank heavily on the holiday season every year. This time they are likely to flourish particularly after a difficult 2020. Black Friday is projected to be the biggest shopping day this holiday season. Pent-up savings and government stimulus are expected to further strengthen the spending power of consumers.That said, e-commerce will continue to play an important role in this year’s sales. Last year, e-commerce came as a savior not only during the holiday season but all through the pandemic. Although in-store sales will pick up this year following the economic reopening, people will prefer shopping online given that the fears of the pandemic are far from over. Moreover, shopping habits have also changed since the onset of the pandemic, as people have realized the ease of shopping online.According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, online revenues are projected to grow 7.6% year over year and a whopping 57% from 2019.  In fact, retail sales are being driven by e-commerce for the past several months now. Online sales in August jumped 8.1% month over month and 82% from the previous year.Our ChoicesGiven this scenario, it would be ideal to invest in retail stocks with a strong online presence. We have hand-picked five stocks for you. Each of the stocks carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Walmart Inc. WMT has evolved from just being a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer into an omnichannel player. In this regard, the acquisitions of Bonobos, Moosejaw and Parcel; partnership with Shopify and Goldman Sachs; delivery programs like Walmart + and Express Delivery; and investment in the online e-commerce platform Flipkart are noteworthy. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 15.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 6% over the past 60 days. Macy's, Inc. M is in the process of a complete makeover and has outlined plans under its three-year Polaris Strategy to adapt better to the new retail ecosystem. Notably, the company is banking on Backstage locations, Vendor Direct, Store Pickup, Loyalty Program, Growth150 stores, ‘mobile first’ strategy and Destination Businesses. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 74.4% over the past 60 days.  Buckle, Inc. The BKE is a leading retailer of medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear and accessories for fashion-conscious young men and women.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 59.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 13.1% over the past 60 days. Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY is a multinational specialty retailer of consumer electronics, home office products, entertainment software, communication, food preparation, wellness, health, security, appliances and related services. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for next year is 26.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 17.3% over the past 60 days.The Gap, Inc. GPS is a premier international specialty retailer offering a diverse range of clothing, accessories, and personal care products. It offers products for men, women and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix and Hill City brands.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 27.3% over the past 60 days. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Macy's, Inc. (M): Free Stock Analysis Report Walmart Inc. (WMT): Free Stock Analysis Report Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): Free Stock Analysis Report The Gap, Inc. (GPS): Free Stock Analysis Report Buckle, Inc. The (BKE): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

Buy These 2 Tech Stocks Before Q3 Earnings for Long-Term Growth?

Is it time to buy Netflix (NFLX) and Snap (SNAP) stock ahead of their Q3 financial results next week... Today’s episode of Full Court Finance at Zacks takes a look at where the broader market stands as Wall Street prepares to enter the busy portion of the third quarter earnings season during the week of October 11. The episode then dives into two technology and modern entertainment companies, Netflix NFLX and Snap SNAP, ahead of their Q3 financial results next week to see if investors might want to buy either stock.Last week marked another up and down stretch for the market, with a big drop followed by a quick rebound. The S&P 500 currently sits around 3.5% below its early September records, while the Nasdaq is roughly 5% under its peaks. Both these major indexes sit below their 50-day moving averages, but well above their 200-day as the bulls jump in seemingly every time stocks come close to some oversold technical levels.The positivity that popped up later last week stemmed from debt ceiling progress and some solid unemployment figures. September’s jobs report, which came out Friday, then came well under expectations amid supply chain setbacks and delta variant worries.There are multiple reasons for the setback, but the market didn’t react in any significant way to September’s report. This could signal Wall Street is sanguine about the U.S. economy as we enter the holiday shopping season that impacts everyone from Target TGT to Apple AAPL.On top of that, the S&P 500 earnings and margins picture for Q3 and beyond remains strong despite a recent slowdown in positive revisions. Plus, the overall interest rate environment will keep investors chasing returns in equities for the foreseeable future (also read: What Will Q3 Bank Earnings Show).The big Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan JPM and Bank of America BAC unofficially kick off Q3 earnings season this week, with reports from tech giants set to slowly start coming out next week. Two of the first notable technology names set to report during the busy stretch of corporate earnings are Netflix and Snap.Netflix stock has surged to new highs in the past few months, after lagging far behind the market and fellow big tech names throughout 2021 and the last year. The streaming TV company continues to expand within a growth market despite competition from Disney DIS, Amazon AMZN, and many others. And some of NFLX’s other fundamentals make it a potentially attractive buy with it set to report its Q3 earnings results on Oct. 19.   Snap trades at a roughly 10% discount to its records at the moment, heading into quarterly financial release on Oct. 21. The company has expanded its offerings to include entrainment far beyond disappearing photos and videos and it’s become a hit with advertisers for its ability to reach large chunks of the U.S. population within key younger age groups. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential In the past few years, many popular platforms and like Uber and Airbnb finally made their way to the public markets. But the biggest paydays came from lesser-known names. For example, electric carmaker X Peng shot up +299.4% in just 2 months. Think of it this way… If you had put $5,000 into XPEV at its IPO in September 2020, you could have cashed out with $19,970 in November. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year’s lineup could be even more lucrative.See Zacks Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Bank of America Corporation (BAC): Free Stock Analysis Report JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report Target Corporation (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Free Stock Analysis Report Snap Inc. (SNAP): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 12th, 2021

Sealed Air (SEE) Gains from Healthy Demand Amid Rising Costs

Sealed Air (SEE) is poised to benefit from the solid end-market demand, savings from the Reinvent SEE strategy and focus on investments in automated equipment. Sealed Air Corporation SEE is benefiting from strong demand for its automated equipment and sustainable packaging solutions. Anticipated benefits from its Reinvent SEE Strategy, focus on acquisitions and product innovations will also stoke growth.The company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 10.9%.Segments Poised to Grow on Solid End-Market DemandStrong demand for automated equipment and sustainable packaging solutions continues to drive growth in the food and protected packaging segments. In food, the retail channel and protein exports are expected to be solid. Sealed Air has been witnessing higher food service demand compared to last year owing to the reopening of restaurants and other public venues. In fact, its fluid solutions portfolio, which comprises Cryovac Barrier Bags and pouches for condiments, soups and sauces, is seeing growth on this demand rebound. The Food segment’s 50% of sales are generated from these categories. In protective, continued growth in e-commerce and fulfillment, and higher demand in the industrial end markets are likely to fuel growth. E-commerce sales, which contribute around 14% to the company’s sales, have been on the rise amid the stay-at-home scenario.Reinvent SEE Strategy to Drive MarginSealed Air’s Reinvent SEE Strategy, which is focused on innovations, SG&A productivity, product-cost efficiency, channel optimization and customer-service enhancements, has been driving its earnings growth. One of the most vital aspects of this strategy involves investment in technology and resources, and focusing on the new and existing high-growth markets. The company achieved $28-million benefits from Reinvent SEE in the first half of the current year and is on track to realize benefits of around $65 million in the remaining period of the year.Focus on Investments in Automated EquipmentSealed Air’s focus on automation, digital and sustainability is likely to boost market-topping growth in its core business, allowing it to expand into new and adjacent markets. The company’s SEE automated solutions strategy is driving growth for the next phase of its Reinvent SEE business transformation. Sealed Air is meeting customers' most critical needs for safety, productivity and labor scarcity with its touchless automated solutions. It expects equipment sales to be up 12% in 2021 to more than $250 million. The company’s pipeline for automated equipment continues to improve, and it has set a target of more than $500 million by 2025. Sealed Air is investing more than $30 million in capacity expansion to meet the strong demand for equipment solutions. These investments, along with the company’s acquisitions of Automated Packaging Systems, AFP, Inc, and Fagerdala will stoke growth.Meanwhile, Sealed Air’s margins continue being affected by the rising raw material and freight costs. Therefore, the company announced to hike prices by 5-10% across all products effective Sep 15 to counter the impact of rising input costs. Some other prominent companies in the Industrial Products sector like Greif, Inc. GEF, Amcor PLC AMCR and Berry Global Group, Inc. BERY are also implementing cost-control actions due to the rising raw-material costs. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Sealed Air Corporation (SEE): Free Stock Analysis Report Greif, Inc. (GEF): Free Stock Analysis Report Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY): Free Stock Analysis Report Amcor PLC (AMCR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 12th, 2021

Down 42.1% in 4 Weeks, Here"s Why PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend reversal for the stock. PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 42.1% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.Guide to Identifying Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefitting from the inevitable rebound.However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.Why PAGS Could Bounce Back Before LongThe RSI reading of 12.8 for PAGS is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.This technical indicator is not the only factor that calls for a potential rebound for the stock. There is a fundamental indicator as well. A strong agreement among sell-side analysts covering PAGS in raising earnings estimates for the current year has led to an increase in the consensus EPS estimate by 116.8% over the last 30 days. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.Moreover, PAGS currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 12th, 2021

After Plunging 25.6% in 4 Weeks, Here"s Why the Trend Might Reverse for Athenex (ATNX)

Athenex (ATNX) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend reversal for the stock. Athenex (ATNX) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 25.6% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.Guide to Identifying Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefitting from the inevitable rebound.However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.Why ATNX Could Bounce Back Before LongThe RSI reading of 25.65 for ATNX is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.The RSI value is not the only factor that indicates a potential turnaround for the stock in the near term. On the fundamental side, there has been strong agreement among the sell-side analysts covering the stock in raising earnings estimates for the current year. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for ATNX has increased 2.1%. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.Moreover, ATNX currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Athenex, Inc. (ATNX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 12th, 2021

MaxLinear: A $4Bn Roll-Up That’s About To Roll-Over – Jehoshaphat Research

Jehoshaphat Research is short MaxLinear, Inc. (NYSE:MXL). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more MaxLinear: A $4Bn Roll-Up That’s About To Roll-Over MaxLinear (MXL) is a semiconductor company whose shareholders and analysts believe that it is growing. In reality, MXL’s organic growth today is zero. Management has successfully covered up MXL’s long-term spiral with […] Jehoshaphat Research is short MaxLinear, Inc. (NYSE:MXL). .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more MaxLinear: A $4Bn Roll-Up That's About To Roll-Over MaxLinear (MXL) is a semiconductor company whose shareholders and analysts believe that it is growing. In reality, MXL’s organic growth today is zero. Management has successfully covered up MXL’s long-term spiral with increasingly large and desperate acquisitions of other declining assets. This culminated in a huge 2020 deal that created a brief honeymoon period, which investors have mistaken for sustainable growth. Consensus has unwittingly set estimates that would require heroic and sustained improvement in this stagnant business: double-digit growth in future quarters and 9% growth in 2022. To hit such aggressive expectations would also fly in the face of the defining pattern of this company. We’ve dissected MXL’s acquisition history and found a consistent template: acquire declining asset, exceed short-term expectations with sudden, short-lived surges of growth from said asset, and then suffer the predictable evaporation of that growth. The Entropic and Exar acquisitions – two disasters that enjoyed short-term, post-acquisition “pops” followed by structural decay across disparate categories – exemplify this pattern. But no structurally declining asset that MXL has acquired has enjoyed such a “transitory” holiday as one, the prototypical COVID beneficiary: the Intel Home Gateway (IHG) business, acquired in 2020. IHG was a home networking chip supplier that catered directly to the work-from-home explosion. Sure enough, we’ve discovered that like other MXL acquisitions, IHG’s growth has hit the wall after a few banner quarters. The 0% growth rate that post-merger MXL now suffers may be surprising, but it shouldn’t be. MXL doesn’t go around shouting this, but IHG was a structurally declining asset to begin with. Management merely created the impression of its sudden growth by sandbagging: they “estimated” $65m/quarter of revenues for a business that they knew had been doing $97m/quarter in 2019. And then, surprise! They “beat and raised” several times. We’ve also identified a strikingly consistent record of broken promises by MXL. Its various product portfolios inevitably disappoint, and miserably so, because management overpromises so wildly. This is how you ended up with today’s double-digit organic growth expectations for a declining roll-up. We calculate that MXL’s historical organic growth rate is approximately negative -10% over a long period of time. But MXL’s terrible underlying fundamentals only revisit investors when the company is in between large acquisitions – so 0% organic growth is becoming visible only now, as we are about to lap the IHG deal. MXL’s own executives and directors, of course, are wise to this unflattering setup. The CEO has sold more stock in the past 12 months than he had sold in the prior six years combined. Various other insiders have also been selling stock at unprecedented rates (and in huge percentages of their ownership in some cases). MXL has only 3% short interest, not a single Sell rating, and after a ~400% run since the IHG acquisition announcement it is near an all-time high. Similar to the disappointments for FDX, NTGR, ZM and other “COVID” stocks, we expect MXL to round-trip its way back to a level fitting its fundamentals (around -60%). We invite readers to contact us with questions at www.jehoshaphatresearch.com. Executive Summary MXL’s History Reflects Chronic Organic Decline Obscured by Acquisitions and COVID: MXL has done a lot of M&A over the years and has failed to disclose all inorganic contributions, so its organic growth hasn’t always been obvious. We went over the last six years, quarter-by-quarter and deal-by-deal, and found that legacy (pre-IHG) MXL’s average YOY organic growth over this time is around negative -10%. Another way to see that MXL’s long-term decline has been horrific: MXL was doing $133m in revenues in 2014. From then until Q220, the last quarter before it bought IHG, it acquired companies generating a combined ~$364m in annual revenues. So if MXL’s long-term organic growth were merely zero, its revenue would be ~$497m just before buying IHG (legacy $133m + acquired $364m). In reality, MXL’s LTM revenues as of Q220 were only $277m, a shortfall of 44%. It’s not easy to see this at first glance because MXL’s total revenues grew so much via acquisition between 2014 and 2020. But if you dissect these numbers, you’ll see the business is nothing but a pile of rolled-up assets in terminal decline, purchased on the cheap because they’re all garbage. Further, thanks to pro forma historical disclosures and other publicly available information, we can also back into the historical growth rate of the recently acquired IHG business. IHG was similarly a roll-up of multiple businesses in long-term organic decline. It was declining at an approximately mid-teens rate in 2019 and similarly in 1H20, the last period before MXL bought it. IHG did enjoy a brief, powerful holiday from decline during the work-from-home boom, but that “COVID boost” is now over, just like it is for other WFH-exposed businesses. We think this is why MXL’s organic growth for Q321 is approximately zero percent. There’s a reason why Intel was willing to unload its Home Gateway business onto MXL for 0.4x 2019 revenues. It’s not because Intel doesn’t know how to value its own assets. • Don’t get us wrong; there is nothing inherently wrong with buying declining assets at cheap prices. But melting ice cubes should be valued, and forecasted, as such. At ~$50/share, MXL is getting credit for being a hot, high-growth business, rather than the cold, slimy mashup of melting ice cubes it actually is. MXL is Doing Approximately 0% Organic Growth Today, but Consensus Estimates Require 9%+ Organic Growth: (*Q321 growth rate of 0% reflects midpoint of guidance compared to Q320 pro forma revenue for MXL if IHG were included for the full quarter. Other quarters without bars represent unknown organic growth due to incomplete company disclosures.) MXL completed a major acquisition (IHG) in Q320. The combined companies’ revenue run rate for that quarter, if they had included the stub period before the deals closed, was $219.4m. This number was buried in the notes of a 10-Q issued almost a year ago, and it had very little significance at the time. One year later, MXL has given Q321 revenue guidance of almost exactly this amount at the midpoint, which implicitly means 0.0% organic growth YOY. This is a problem, because the Street is estimating 7-17% YOY growth in the quarters after Q3, estimates which are entirely organic. Analysts don’t realize the amount of acceleration embedded in their estimates. MXL needs its organic growth to accelerate from zero to phenomenal, and then stay there, to make its numbers after Q321. MXL is constrained by its balance sheet after its latest deal, so another huge acquisition that would allow it to dig out from this hole is unlikely. We have seen this movie before with this company. After the last acquisition that took debt to this level, MXL had to sit out from M&A for years while it paid down that debt. During this time while the company could not buy growth, total revenues fell sharply and the stock underperformed by over 100%. Broken Promises Galore! Management Walks Investors off the Cliff with Remarkable Consistency: We’ll walk through a series of broken promises by MXL: product lines or major portfolios that management claimed had healthy, durable growth outlooks but were in the midst of chronic or even terminal decline. Management’s lack of credibility has obvious implications, considering their recent string of promises of long-term, double-digit growth. MXL has gotten some predictions of its business so bizarrely wrong that it strikes us as intentional. For instance, continually promising a rebound in the home satellite business despite a secular downward trend in underlying subscriber demand, or promising sustained, high-single-digit growth from the acquired Exar portfolio which was an insane proposition for anyone familiar with that asset. Insiders Dump Shares at Unpredecented Rates While Promising an Acceleration in Organic Growth: The CEO of MXL has been a smart buyer and seller of his stock since the company’s IPO 11 years ago. Unsurprisingly, today he is a seller. In fact, he’s been selling at his most aggressive rate ever, worth about $20m in the past twelve months which is around seven times his annual average. While many insiders are selling, three stand out with recent (2H21) sales worth anywhere from ~35-75% of their personal holdings. One of these insiders, selling for the first time since joining MXL’s board years ago, used to run the Intel Connected Home business that the recent IHG acquisition came from. Gallingly, these same insiders decided to initiate MXL’s first-ever corporate buyback, right in the middle of this unusual insider selling frenzy. MXL has no organic growth, but almost all the companies in its comp set are achieving mid-single-digit growth or better. It does not have a special gross margin profile, and it is levered while most of its peers in this cyclical industry are not. It therefore deserves a solid discount to the valuation of its semiconductor peer group. Instead, MXL trades at a large premium on book value and cash flows, and roughly in line on earnings and revenues.ii These metrics indicate that the market writ large simply doesn’t realize that MXL is a declining business, so it takes consensus growth numbers at face value. Given the starkly different growth and leverage profile for MXL, we would put a 15x multiple of FCF, or a 3.5x multiple of book value, on MXL, for a market cap of about $1.5bn or a price target of about $20 per share. Read the full report here by Jehoshaphat Research Updated on Oct 12, 2021, 12:25 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 12th, 2021

Futures Rebound From Overnight Slide As Oil Keeps Rising

Futures Rebound From Overnight Slide As Oil Keeps Rising US equity-index futures erased earlier declines, rebounding from a loss of as much as 0.8% helped by the start of the European session and easing mounting concerns about stagflation from rising energy prices, signs of widening regulatory scrutiny by China, and the upcoming third-quarter earnings which is expected to post a sharply slower pace of growth and beats than recent record quarters. At 730am ET, Dow e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.25 points, or 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 46.75points, or 0.31%. Oiil rose 0.3% to $83.86/bbl while the dollar dipped and 10Y yield drifted back under 1.60%. Gains in tech stocks kept Nasdaq futures afloat on Tuesday, while energy names rose as Brent resumed gains, trading around $84/bbl on expectations that a power crisis from Asia to Europe will lift demand and tighten global balances. Higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions have set off alarm bells for businesses and consumers ahead of the third-quarter reporting season that kicks off on Wednesday with JPMorgan results.  "We believe that market participants could stay concerned over high energy prices translating into further acceleration in inflation, and thereby faster tightening by major central banks," said Charalambos Pissouros, head of research at JFD Group. In the pre-market, Tesla rose 0.7% after data showed the electric vehicle maker sold 56,006 China-made vehicles in September, the highest since it started production in Shanghai about two years ago. Oil firms including Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp gained 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, as Brent crude hit a near-three year high on energy crunch fears. Here are the notable movers: China’s Internet sector is one of the “most undervalued” in Morningstar’s coverage, says Ivan Su, an analyst, adding that Tencent (TCEHY US) and Netease (NTES US) are top picks MGM Resorts (MGM US) rises 2% in U.S. premarket trading after stock was upgraded to outperform from neutral and price target more than doubled to a Street-high $68 at Credit Suisse Quanterix (QTRX US) jumped 20% in Monday postmarket trading after the digital-health company announced that its Simoa phospho-Tau 181 blood test has been granted breakthrough device designation by the U.S. FDA as an aid in diagnostic evaluation of Alzheimer’s disease Relay Therapeutics (RLAY US) fell 7% in Monday postmarket trading after launching a $350 million share sale via Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Cowen, Guggenheim Securities Westwater Resources (WWR US) rose as much as 26% in Monday postmarket trading after its board of directors approved construction of the first phase of a production facility in Alabama for battery ready graphite products TechnipFMC (FTI US) in focus after co. was awarded a substantial long-term charter and services contract by Petrobras for the pipelay support vessel Coral do Atlântico Fastenal, which was one of the first companies to report Q3 earnings, saw its shares fall 2.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday, after the industrial distributor said the Covid-related boost was fading. The company said growth in the quarter was slightly limited by either slower expansion or contraction in sales of certain products related to the pandemic, when compared to the previous year quarter. While there was an uptick in sales of certain Covid-related supplies, the unit price of many products was down significantly, the company said in a statement.  Third-quarter sales and profit were in line with the average analyst estimate "While investors want to believe the narrative that stock markets can continue to move higher, this belief is bumping up against the reality of how the continued rise in energy prices, as well as supply-chain pressures, are likely to impact company profit margins,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. In Europe, losses led by basic resources companies and carmakers outweighed gains for utilities and tech stocks, pulling the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 0.1%. Metals miner Rio Tinto was among the worst performers, dropping 2.7%. European equities climbed off the lows having lost over 1% in early trade. Euro Stoxx 600 was down -0.35% after dropping as much as 1.3% initially, led by basic resources companies and carmakers outweighed gains for utilities and tech stocks. The DAX is off 0.3%, FTSE 100 underperforms in a quiet morning for news flow. Miners, banks and autos are the weakest sectors after China reported a sharp drop in auto sales; utilities, tech and real estate post modest gains. European tech stocks slide, with the Stoxx Tech Index dropping as much as 1.4% in third straight decline, as another broker downgrades TeamViewer, while Prosus and chip stocks come under pressure. TeamViewer shares fall as much as 5.1% after Deutsche Bank downgrades the remote software maker to hold from buy following recent guidance cut. Asian stocks fell, halting a three-day rally as uncertainty over earnings deepened amid elevated inflation, higher bond yields and the risk of a widening Chinese crackdown on private industry. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, led by technology and communication shares. Alibaba plunged 3.9% following a rally over the past week, while Samsung Electronics tumbled to a 10-month low after at least five brokers slashed their price targets, as China’s power crisis is seen worsening supply-chain disruptions. “Given the run-up in tech so far, it’s not difficult for investors to harvest profits first before figuring out if techs can maintain their growth when yields rise,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. Shares in Hong Kong and the mainland were among the worst performers after Chinese authorities kicked off an inspection of the nation’s financial regulators and biggest state-run banks in an effort to root out corruption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 12% from a February peak, with a global energy crunch lifting input prices and the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group weighing on the financial sector. Investors are waiting to see how this impacts earnings, according to Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia.  “Increasing concerns on inflation potentially being more persistent have started to show up,” he said. “This comes along with the global risk-off mood overnight, as investors look for greater clarity from the earnings season on how margins are holding up, along with the corporate economic outlook.” Japan’s Topix index also fell, halting a two-day rally, amid concerns about a global energy crunch and the possibility of a widening Chinese crackdown on private industry. The Topix fell 0.7% to 1,982.68 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.9% to 28,230.61. SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s drop, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 373 rose and 1,743 fell, while 65 were unchanged. “Market conditions were improving yesterday, but pushing for higher prices got tough when the Nikkei 225 approached its key moving averages,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.  The Nikkei’s 75-day moving average is about 28,500 and the 200-day moving average is about 28,700, so some investors were taking profits, he said. Japan’s spot power price increased to the highest level in nine months, as the global energy crisis intensifies competition for generation fuel before the winter heating season. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an overnight gain as the greenback slipped against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk sensitive Scandinavian currencies led gains, followed by the New Zealand and Australian dollars. The pound was little changed while speculators ramped up wagers on sterling’s decline at the fastest rate in more than two years, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show, further breaking the link between anticipated rate increases and currency gains. The yen steadied after three days of declines. The Turkish lira extended its slide to a record low after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted at a possible military offensive into neighboring Syria. Fixed-income was quiet by recent standards: Treasury futures were off lows of the day, improving as S&P 500 futures pare losses during European morning, and as cash trading resumed after Monday’s holiday. The 10Y yield dipped from 1.61% to 1.59% after hitting 1.65% based on futures pricing on Monday, but the big mover was on the front end, where 2-year yields climbed as much as 4bps to 0.35% the highest level since March 2020 reflecting increased expectations for Fed rate hikes, as Treasury cash trading resumed globally. Two coupon auctions during U.S. session -- of 3-and 10-year notes -- may weigh on Treasuries however.  Treasury and gilt curves bull-flatten with gilts outperforming at the back end. Bunds have a bull-steepening bias but ranges are narrow. Peripheral spreads tighten a touch with long-end Italy outperforming peers. In commodities, Crude futures drift higher in muted trade. WTI is up 0.25% near $80.70, Brent trades just shy of a $84-handle. Spot gold remains range-bound near $1,760/oz. Base metals are mixed with LME lead and nickel holding small gains, copper and aluminum in the red. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida,Bostic and Barkin, as well as theECB’s President Lagarde, Makhlouf, Knot, Villeroy, Lane and Elderson. Data highlights from the US include the JOLTS job openings for August, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for September which came in at 99.1, below last month's 100.1. The IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,351.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 454.90 MXAP down 0.9% to 194.41 MXAPJ down 1.0% to 635.42 Nikkei down 0.9% to 28,230.61 Topix down 0.7% to 1,982.68 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,546.94 Sensex little changed at 60,149.85 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,280.73 Kospi down 1.4% to 2,916.38 German 10Y yield fell 6 bps to -0.113% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1565 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.01/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,757.84 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.29 Top Overnight Headlines from Bloomberg The EU drew record demand for its debut green bond, in the sector’s biggest-ever offering. The bloc registered more than 135 billion euros ($156 billion) in orders Tuesday for a sale of 12 billion euros of securities maturing in 2037 Investors are dumping negative-yielding debt at the fastest pace since February as concerns about inflation and reduced central bank stimulus propel global interest rates higher French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a 30-billion-euro ($35 billion) plan to create the high-tech champions of the future and reverse years of industrial decline in the euro area’s second-largest economy British companies pushed the number of workers on payrolls above pre-coronavirus levels last month, an indication of strength in the labor market that may embolden the Bank of England to raise interest rates. As the Biden administration and governments around the world celebrate another advance toward an historic global tax accord, an obscure legal question in the U.S. threatens to tear it apart Chinese property developers are suffering credit rating downgrades at the fastest pace in five years, as a recent slump in new-home sales adds to concerns about the sector’s debt woes German investor confidence declined for a fifth month in October, adding to evidence that global supply bottlenecks and a surge in inflation are weighing on the recovery in Europe’s largest economy Social Democrat Olaf Scholz’s bid to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor is running into its first test as tensions emerge in talks to bridge policy differences with the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats A more detailed breakdown of global markets from Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following the indecisive mood stateside where the major indices gave back initial gains to finish negative amid lingering inflation and global slowdown concerns, with sentiment overnight also hampered by tighter Beijing scrutiny and with US equity futures extending on losses in which the Emini S&P retreated beneath its 100DMA. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued as weakness in energy, tech and financials led the declines in Australia and with participants also digesting mixed NAB business survey data. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) was on the backfoot after the Japan Center for Economic Research noted that GDP contracted 0.9% M/M in August and with retailers pressured after soft September sales updates from Lawson and Seven & I Holdings, while the KOSPI (-1.4%) was the laggard on return from holiday with chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix subdued as they face new international taxation rules following the recent global minimum tax deal. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) adhered to the downbeat picture following a continued liquidity drain by the PBoC and with Beijing scrutinising Chinese financial institutions’ ties with private firms, while default concerns lingered after Evergrande missed yesterday’s payments and with Modern Land China seeking a debt extension on a USD 250mln bond to avoid any potential default. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked minimal gains amid the weakness in stocks but with demand for bonds limited after the recent subdued trade in T-note futures owing to yesterday’s cash bond market closure and following softer results across all metrics in the 30yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Alibaba Stock Revival Halted on Concerns of Rising Bond Yields Iron Ore Rally Pauses as China Steel Curbs Cloud Demand Outlook China’s Star Board Sees Rough Start to Fourth Quarter: ECM Watch Citi Lists Top Global Stock Picks for ‘Disruptive Innovations’ European bourses kicked the day off choppy but have since drifted higher (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%; Stoxx 600 Unch) as the region remains on standby for the next catalyst, and as US earnings season officially kicks off tomorrow – not to mention the US and Chinese inflation metrics and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and reside in relatively flat territory at the time of writing, with broad-based performance seen in the ES (Unch), NQ (+0.2%), RTY (-0.2%), YM (Unch). From a technical standpoint, some of the Dec contracts are now hovering around their respective 100 DMAs at 4,346 for the ES, 14,744 for the NQ, whilst the RTY sees its 200 DMA at 2,215, and the YM topped its 21 DMA at 34,321. Back to Europe, cash markets see broad-based downside with the SMI (-0.1%) slightly more cushioned amid gains in heavyweight Nestle (+0.6%). Sectors kicked off the day with a defensive bias but have since seen a slight reconfiguration, with Real Estate now the top performer alongside Food & Beverages, Tech and Healthcare. On the flip side, Basic Resources holds its position as the laggard following yesterday's marked outperformance and despite base metals (ex-iron) holding onto yesterday's gains. Autos also reside at the bottom of the bunch despite constructive commentary from China's Auto Industry Body CAAM, who suggested the chip supply shortage eased in China in September and expected Q4 to improve, whilst sources suggested Toyota aims to make up some lost production as supplies rebound. In terms of individual movers, GSK (+2.3%) shares spiked higher amid reports that its USD 54bln consumer unit has reportedly attracted buyout interest, according to sources, in turn lifting the FTSE 100 Dec future by 14 points in the immediacy. Elsewhere, easyJet (-1.9%) gave up its earlier gains after refraining on guidance, and despite an overall constructive trading update whereby the Co. sees positive momentum carried into FY22, with H1 bookings double those in the same period last year. Co. expects to fly up to 70% of FY19 planned capacity in FY22. In terms of commentary, the session saw the Germany ZEW release, which saw sentiment among experts deteriorate, citing the persisting supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products. The release also noted that 49.1% of expects still expect inflation to rise further in the next six months. Heading into earnings season, experts also expect profits to go down, particularly in export-tilted sectors such a car making, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. State-side, sources suggested that EU antitrust regulators are reportedly likely to open an investigation into Nvidia's (+0.6% Pre-Mkt) USD 54bln bid from Arm as concessions were not deemed sufficient. Top European News Soybeans Near 10-Month Low as Supply Outlook Expected to Improve EasyJet Boosts Capacity as Travel Rebound Gathers Pace Currency Traders Are Betting the BOE Is About to Make a Mistake Citi Lists Top Global Stock Picks for ‘Disruptive Innovations’ In FX, the Buck has reclaimed a bit more lost ground in consolidatory trade rather than any real sign of a change in fundamentals following Monday’s semi US market holiday for Columbus Day and ahead of another fairly light data slate comprising NFIB business optimism and JOLTS. However, supply awaits the return of cash Treasuries in the form of Usd 58 bn 3 year and Usd 38 bn 10 year notes and Fed commentary picks up pace on the eve of FOMC minutes with no less than five officials scheduled to speak. Meanwhile, broad risk sentiment has taken a knock in wake of a late swoon on Wall Street to give the Greenback and underlying bid and nudge the index up to fresh post-NFP highs within a 94.226-433 band. NZD/AUD - A slight change in fortunes down under as the Kiwi derives some comfort from the fact that the Aud/Nzd has not breached 1.0600 to the upside and Nzd/Usd maintaining 0.6950+ status irrespective of mixed NZ electric card sales data, while the Aussie takes on board contrasting NAB business conditions and confidence readings in advance of consumer sentiment, with Aud/Usd rotating either side of 0.7350. EUR/CAD/GBP/CHF/JPY - All rangy and marginally mixed against their US counterpart, as the Euro straddles 1.1560, the Loonie meanders between 1.2499-62 with less fuel from flat-lining crude and the Pound tries to keep sight of 1.3600 amidst corrective moves in Eur/Gbp following a rebound through 0.8500 after somewhat inconclusive UK labour and earnings data, but hardly a wince from the single currency even though Germany’s ZEW survey missed consensus and the institute delivered a downbeat assessment of the outlook for the coming 6 months. Elsewhere, the Franc continues to hold within rough 0.9250-90 extremes and the Yen is striving to nurse outsize losses between 113.00-50 parameters, with some attention to 1 bn option expiries from 113.20-25 for the NY cut. Note also, decent expiry interest in Eur/Usd and Usd/Cad today, but not as close to current spot levels (at the 1.1615 strike in 1.4 bn and between 1.2490-1.2505 in 1.1 bn respectively). SCANDI/EM - The Nok and Sek have bounced from lows vs the Eur, and the latter perhaps taking heed of a decline in Sweden’s registered jobless rate, but the Cnh and Cny remain off recent highs against the backdrop of more Chinese regulatory rigour, this time targeting state banks and financial institutions with connections to big private sector entities and the Try has thrown in the towel in terms of its fight to fend off approaches towards 9.0000 vs the Usd. The final straw for the Lira appeared to be geopolitical, as Turkish President Erdogan said they will take the necessary steps in Syria and are determined to eliminate threats, adding that Turkey has lost its patience on the attacks coming from Syrian Kurdish YPG controlled areas. Furthermore, he stated there is a Tal Rifaat pocket controlled by YPG below Afrin and that an operation could target that area which is under Russian protection. However, Usd/Try is off a new ATH circa 9.0370 as oil comes off the boil and ip came in above forecast. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are choppy and trade on either side of the flat mark in what is seemingly some consolidation and amid a distinct lack of catalysts to firmly dictate price action. The complex saw downticks heading into the European cash open in tandem with the overall market sentiment at the time, albeit the crude complex has since recovered off worst levels. News flow for the complex has also remained minimal as eyes now turn to any potential intervention by major economies in a bid to stem the pass-through of energy prices to consumers heading into winter. On that note, UK nat gas futures have been stable on the day but still north of GBP 2/Thm. Looking ahead, the weekly Private Inventory data has been pushed back to tomorrow on account of yesterday's Columbus Day holiday. Tomorrow will also see the release of the OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO. Focus on the former will be on any updates to its demand forecast, whilst commentary surrounding US shale could be interesting as it'll give an insight into OPEC's thinking on the threat of Shale under President Biden's "build back better" plan. Brent Dec trades on either side of USD 84/bbl (vs prev. 83.13-84.14 range) whilst WTI trades just under USD 81/bbl after earlier testing USD 80/bbl to the downside (USD 80-80.91/bbl range). Over to metals, spot gold and silver hold onto modest gains with not much to in the way of interesting price action, with the former within its overnight range above USD 1,750/oz and the latter still north of USD 22.50/oz after failing to breach the level to the downside in European hours thus far. In terms of base metals, LME copper is holding onto most of yesterday's gains, but the USD 9,500/t mark seems to be formidable resistance. Finally, Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures retreated after a four-day rally, with traders citing China's steel production regaining focus. US Event Calendar 6am: Sept. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 99.1,  est. 99.5, prior 100.1 10am: Aug. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11m, prior 10.9m 11:15am: Fed’s Clarida Speaks at IIF Annual Meeting 12:30pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Inflation at Peterson Institute 6pm: Fed’s Barkin Interviewed for an NPR Podcast DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It’s my wife’s birthday today and the big treat is James Bond tomorrow night. However, I was really struggling to work out what to buy her. After 11.5 years together, I ran out of original ideas at about year three and have then scrambled round every year in an attempt to be innovative. Previous innovations have seen mixed success with the best example being the nearly-to-scale oil portrait I got commissioned of both of us from our wedding day. She had no idea and hated it at the closed eyes big reveal. It now hangs proudly in our entrance hall though. Today I’ve bought her a lower key gamble. Some of you might know that there is a US website called Cameo that you can pay famous people to record a video message for someone for a hefty fee. Well, all her childhood heroes on it were seemingly too expensive or not there. Then I saw that the most famous gymnast of all time, Nadia Comăneci, was available for a reasonable price. My wife idolised her as a kid (I think). So after this goes to press, I’m going to wake my wife up with a personalised video message from Nadia wishing her a happy birthday, saying she’s my perfect ten, and praising her for encouraging our three children to do gymnastics and telling her to keep strong while I try to get them to play golf instead. I’m not sure if this is a totally naff gift or inspired. When I purchased it I thought the latter but now I’m worried it’s the former! My guess is she says it’s naff, appreciates the gesture, but calls me out for the lack of chocolates. Maybe in this day and age a barrel of oil or a tank of petrol would have been the most valuable birthday present. With investor anticipation continuing to build ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release from the US, yesterday saw yet another round of commodity price rises that’s making it increasingly difficult for central banks to argue that inflation is in fact proving transitory. You don’t have to be too old to remember that back in the summer, those making the transitory argument cited goods like lumber as an example of how prices would begin to fall back again as the economy reopened. But not only have commodity aggregates continued to hit fresh highs since then, but lumber (+5.49%) itself followed up last week’s gains to hit its highest level in 3 months. Looking at those moves yesterday, it was a pretty broad-based advance across the commodity sphere, with big rises among energy and metals prices in particular. Oil saw fresh advances, with WTI (+1.47%) closing above $80/bbl for the first time since 2014, whilst Brent Crude (+1.53%) closed above $83/bbl for the first time since 2018. Meanwhile, Chinese coal futures (+8.00%) hit a record after the flooding in Shanxi province that we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which has closed 60 of the 682 mines there, and this morning they’re already up another +6.41%. So far this year, the region has produced 30% of China’s coal supply, which gives you an idea as to its importance. And when it came to metals, aluminium prices (+3.30%) on the London Metal Exchange rose to their highest level since the global financial crisis, whilst Iron Ore futures in Singapore jumped +7.01% on Monday, and copper was also up +2.13%. The one respite on the inflation front was a further decline in natural gas prices, however, with the benchmark European future down -2.73%; thus bringing its declines to over -47% since the intraday high that was hit only last Wednesday. With commodity prices seeing another spike and inflation concerns resurfacing, this proved bad news for sovereign bonds as investors moved to price in a more hawkish central bank reaction. Yields in Europe rose across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds up +3.0bps to 0.12%, their highest level since May. The rise was driven by both higher inflation breakevens and real rates, and leaves bund yields just shy of their recent post-pandemic closing peak of -0.10% from mid-May. If they manage to surpass that point, that’ll leave them closer to positive territory than at any point since Q2 2019 when they last turned negative again. It was a similar story elsewhere, with 10yr yields on OATs (+2.6bps), BTPs (+3.9bps) and gilts (+3.1bps) likewise reaching their highest level in months. The sell-off occurred as money markets moved to price in further rate hikes from central banks, with investors now expecting a full 25 basis point hike from the Fed by the end of Q3 2022. It seems like another era, but at the start of this year before the Georgia Senate race, investors weren’t even pricing in a full hike by the end of 2023, whereas they’re now pricing in almost 4. So we’ve come a long way over 2021, though pre-Georgia the consensus CPI forecast on Bloomberg was just 2.0%, whereas it now stands at 4.3%, so it does fit with the story of much stronger-than-expected inflation inducing a hawkish response. Yesterday’s repricing came alongside a pretty minimal -0.15% move in the Euro versus the dollar, but that was because Europe was also seeing a similar rates repricing. Meanwhile, the UK saw its own ramping up of rate hike expectations, with investors pricing in at least an initial 15bps hike to 0.25% happening by the December meeting in just two months’ time. Overnight in Asia, stocks are trading in the red with the KOSPI (-1.46%), Shanghai Composite (-1.21%), Hang Seng (-1.20%), the Nikkei (-0.93%) and CSI (-0.82%) all trading lower on inflation concerns due to high energy costs and aggravated by a Wall Street Journal story that Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasing scrutiny of state-run banks and big financial institutions with inspections. Furthermore, there were signs of a worsening in the Evergrande debt situation, with the firm missing coupon payments on a 9.5% note due in 2022 and a 10% bond due in 2023. And there were fresh indications of a worsening situation more broadly, with Sinic Holdings Group Co. saying it doesn’t expect to pay the principal or interest on a $250m bond due on October 18. Separately in Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Monday that he will raise pay for public workers and boost tax breaks to firms that boost wages to try and improve the country’s wealth distribution. Back to yesterday, and the commodity rally similarly weighed on thin-volume equity markets, though it took some time as the S&P 500 had initially climbed around +0.5% before paring back those gains to close down -0.69%. Before the late US sell-off, European indices were subdued, but the STOXX 600 still rose +0.05%, thanks to an outperformance from the energy sector (+1.49%), and the STOXX Banks Index (+0.13%) hit a fresh two-year high as the sector was supported by a further rise in yields. On the central bank theme, we heard from the ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane, at a conference yesterday, where he said that “a one-off shift in the level of wages as part of the adjustment to a transitory unexpected increase in the price level does not imply a trend shift in the path of underlying inflation.” So clearly making a distinction between a more persistent pattern of wage inflation, which comes as the ECB’s recent forward guidance commits them to not hiking rates “until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon”, as well as having confidence that “realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term”. Turning to the political scene, Brexit is likely to be in the headlines again today as the UK’s Brexit negotiator David Frost gives a speech in Lisbon where he’s expected to warn that the EU’s proposals on the Northern Ireland Protocol are insufficient. That comes ahead of a new set of proposals that are set to come from the EU tomorrow, with the two sides disagreeing on the extent of border controls required on trade from Northern Ireland with the rest of the UK. Those controls were put in place as part of the Brexit deal to prevent a hard border being put up between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, whilst also preserving the integrity of the EU’s single market. But the UK’s demands for adjustments have been met with opposition by the EU, and speculation has risen that the UK could trigger Article 16, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures, if the protocol’s application “leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”. On the data front, there wasn’t much data to speak of with the US holiday, but Italy’s industrial production contracted by -0.2% in August, in line with expectations. To the day ahead now, andcentral bank speakers include the Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida,Bostic and Barkin, as well as theECB’s President Lagarde, Makhlouf, Knot, Villeroy, Lane and Elderson. Data highlights from the US include the JOLTS job openings for August, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for September. In Europe, there’s also UK unemployment for August and the German ZEW Survey for October. Lastly, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook.     Tyler Durden Tue, 10/12/2021 - 07:56.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 12th, 2021

Inflation Concerns; China Won’t Harm Taiwan

In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on the inflation concerns, Louis Navellier wrote: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Inflation Concerns After rising 4.6% last week, oil continued its rise, now above $82 a barrel. Gasoline is at a 7 year high too at $3.27 a gallon. US drillers added […] In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on the inflation concerns, Louis Navellier wrote: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Inflation Concerns After rising 4.6% last week, oil continued its rise, now above $82 a barrel. Gasoline is at a 7 year high too at $3.27 a gallon. US drillers added 5 new drilling rigs, the 5th weekly increase in a row. This is the high-profile category regarding inflation concerns. It touches everyone and may force the hands of Central banks to move quicker to wind down quantitative easing and consider raising interest rates. It still won't be a surprise if Jay Powell hesitates in starting tapering given the recent soft jobs numbers. Other concerns remain beyond inflation, including the debt ceiling dance where Mitch McConnell sent a warning that further cooperation by Republicans will not be easy to come by.  The pandemic issues continue, with Southwest airlines canceling 2,150 flights this past weekend in an apparent vaccine protest with rumors about Amtrak being next. Despite these inflation concerns, optimism remains high that the estimated +27% growth in S&P 500 3rd quarter earnings is realized along with strong outlooks for 2022. Without a Black Swan event, such as a domino-ing of the Chinese Evergrande debt collapse, stocks should be heading towards new all-time highs by the end of the earnings season. Shipping Consolidation You may have noticed that shipping companies consolidated after the crude oil pipeline break in South California was blamed on a containership anchor dragging the pipe 4,000 feet.  The alleged containership with the anchor incident has not been identified, but I expect the entire shipping group to rebound strongly due to ongoing supply chain glitches.  Like Britain, the U.S. also has an acute shortage of truck drivers, which just exasperates the supply chain bottleneck. China Won't Harm Taiwan I get a lot of questions about what is going to happen when China takes over Taiwan after tormenting the island nation an untold number of times with the Chinese air force invading Taiwanese airspace.  My standard answer is that “China will not harm Taiwan’s infrastructure, since they need the semiconductor chips too!” This was reconfirmed by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he recently called for a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan.  Not surprisingly, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that Taiwan would not bow to Chinese pressure. China currently has its own economic problems and based on the official Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI), both its service and manufacturing sectors are now in a recession.  Furthermore, the Trump Administration’s sanctions on 5G pioneer Huawei have been severely hurt by these sanctions, so its 5G market share is shrinking.  Since the Biden Administration did not lift modify the Trump Administration’s tariffs on China, if China invaded Taiwan, they not only risk a military reprisal but also potentially more tariffs from the Biden Administration.  So conclusion, my Taiwanese semiconductor companies, like TMC and UMC, remain great near-term buys since I do not expect China to invade Taiwan. Heard & Notable: China leads the world in posted packages, shipping 83.4 billion packages in 2020 alone. The U.S. and Japan lagged considerably behind with about 20 billion and 9 billion parcels, respectively. Source: Statista Updated on Oct 11, 2021, 1:01 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 11th, 2021

The Market Loves When a Problem is Resolved... or Postponed

The Market Loves When a Problem is Resolved... or Postponed The rebound rally that started yesterday afternoon continued on Thursday, as Congress agreed to a short-term debt ceiling extension. The major indices rose for a third straight session today and are now all in the green for the week as we get ready for the main event. The deal doesn’t solve the problem, of course, but it does delay the deadline to early December. Congress now has a lot more breathing room to get something done, compared to the October 18th deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. And investors can relax… about this issue at least. The NASDAQ rose 1.05% (or about 152 points) to 14,654.02. The index started this week with a more than 2% plunge on Monday as tech was getting shellacked, but it’s now up for the week heading into Friday. It’s all set for a nice reversal from last week’s stiff decline of more than 3%. The Dow rose 0.98% (or around 337 points) on Thursday to 34,754.94, while the S&P advanced 0.83% to 4399.76. “The bulls continued to buy into the relief rally as the debt ceiling issue is all but gone now. To follow up what I said yesterday, we are kicking the can down the road, but time is a negotiators friend,” said Jeremy Mullin in today’s Counterstrike. “I don’t think we go straight back to highs as there is too much supply chain risk for upcoming earnings.” Tomorrow is the main event of the week when the Government Employment Situation is released. The number could go a far way in helping the Fed decide when to start tapering asset purchases, which Chair Jerome Powell said “may soon be warranted” in late September. Last month’s report was surprisingly soft with only 235K jobs added, compared to expectations of more than 700K. The market sees about 500,000 jobs added in September. We’ve already received some positive jobs data recently, including today’s jobless claims number of 326,000 for last week. The result was better than expectations of 345K and an improvement on the previous week’s 364K. Furthermore, yesterday’s ADP employment report beat forecasts as well. Of course, these other reports are not necessarily harbingers of the big number tomorrow. So let’s see what happens… Today's Portfolio Highlights: Commodity Innovators: A surge in fertilizer prices really turned things around for CF Industries (CF), which was almost stopped out not too long ago. But today Jeremy sold the stock for 21.2% in two months and considers it a “lucky win”. The new buy is American staple Deere & Company (DE), which you already know is the largest producer of agricultural equipment and manufacturing agricultural machinery. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) reported a positive surprise of more than 18% in its last quarterly report, but shares are down about 15% from highs. That gives the editor a great entry point. He considers this a long-term hold and will collect a dividend of 1.25%. See the complete write-up for more on today's action. Home Run Investor: This portfolio sold five positions earlier this week, so it’s got some space to fill. On Thursday, Brian picked up Timken Steel Corp. (TMST), which he considers “a little defensive in nature but also has good growth numbers”. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) easily beat earnings estimates for three straight quarters, amassing an average surprise of 30% over the past four quarters. The editor also thinks that TMST has a great valuation, especially for a company that posted topline growth of 112% in its most recent report. Make sure to read the complete commentary for more on this new pick.   Counterstrike: Surging natural gas prices made a lot of money for Jeremy in his Commodity Traders portfolio... and now he plans to profit from the decline. The editor thinks that natural gas prices have topped out, so he bought a 5% position in ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) on Thursday. This inverse ETF moves opposite the commodity’s price. Jeremy warns that this move will be extremely volatile, but it will be a big winner if prices fall back under $5 (which he thinks will happen). By the way, the service also doubled its position in Roku (ROKU) by adding another 4%. The $300 level held and the editor believes it could get to $350 rather quickly. Read the full write-up for more on today’s moves. Options Trader: "But it all leads up to tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While last month’s miss, and persistent worker shortages, has generated some anxiety over this month’s report, the improvement that other labor force reports have shown this week bodes well for this one. "Tomorrow morning’s report is expected to show 475,000 new jobs were created last month (445K for the private sector and 30,000 for the public), while the unemployment rate is expected to have ticked down from 5.2% to 5.1%. But after Wednesday’s ADP report, many are going into the BLS report expecting a similar upside surprise. We shall see. "After the jobs report, the focus will shift to Q3 earnings, which is expected to show another robust quarter of corporate profits." -- Kevin Matras See You Friday, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. 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Category: topSource: zacksOct 11th, 2021

Futures Slide As Soaring Oil Nears $85

Futures Slide As Soaring Oil Nears $85 While cash bonds may be closed today for Columbus Day, which may or may not be a holiday - it's difficult to know anymore with SJW snowflakes opinions changing by the day - US equity futures are open and they are sliding as soaring oil prices add to worries over growing stagflation (Goldman and Morgan Stanley both slashed their GDP estimates over the weekend even as they both see rising inflation), fueling concern that a spreading energy crisis could hamper economic recovery (as a reminder, yesterday we had one, two, three posts on stagflation, showing just how freaked out Wall Street suddenly is). Rising raw material costs, labor shortages and other supply chain bottlenecks have raised concerns of elevated prices hammering corporate profits while rising rates are suggesting that a tidal wave of inflation is coming. And while cash bonds may be closed, one can easily extrapolate where they would be trading based on TSY futures which are currently trading at a 1.65% equivalent. But while cash bonds may be closed, the big mover on Monday was oil, with WTI surging nearly 3% and touched a seven-year high as an energy crisis gripping the major economies showed no sign of easing. Meanwhile, Brent rose just shy of $85, rising to the highest since late 2018 when the Fed abruptly reversed tightening course. Over in China, coal futures reached a record as flooding shuttered mines. The surge in oil lifted shares of Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and APA Corp between 1.2% and 3% in premarket trading. At the same time, rising rates hit FAAMGs, with Apple, Microsoft and Amazon all falling between 0.6% and 0.8%. The surge above 1.6% for 10-year Treasury yields is intensifying debate among strategists over how to position investor portfolios amid anxiety over whether transitory inflation is transitioning into stagflation. Lucid Group rose 2.2% and Occidental Petroleum climbed 3.1%, leading gains in the U.S. premarket session. Here are some of the biggest movers and stocks to watch today: U.S.-listed Chinese tech stocks soar 2% to 5% in premarket trading, extending their recent rebound. Rally supported by Beijing slapping a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan and last week’s news that U.S. President Joe Biden was planning to meet with Xi Jinping before the end of the year. Alibaba (BABA US +5%) leads gains, while JD.com (JD US) and Baidu (BIDU US) rise 2% apiece Watch U.S. energy stocks as oil surges past $80 a barrel as the global power crunch rattled a market in which OPEC+ has only been restoring output at a modest pace. Exxon Mobil (XOM US +1.1%), Chevron (CVX US +1%) and Occidental (OXY US +3.1%) among top risers in premarket trading. Robinhood (HOOD US) dropped 2%; the company was under pressure in U.S. premarket trading as a looming share sale by early investors and a toughening regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies are adding to the headwinds in the stock market for the darling of the U.S. retail trading mania. ChemoCentryx (CCXI US) up 2% in U.S. premarket trading, adding to Friday’s massive gains after the drug developer won U.S. approval for Tavneos as a treatment for a rare autoimmune disorder Cloudflare (NET US) slides 1.8% in U.S. premarket trading after Piper Sandler downgraded stock to neutral Akerna Corp. (KERN US) gained in Friday postmarket trading after Matthew Ryan Kane, a board member, bought $346,032 of shares, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. “We see rising risks to global growth and evidence of more persistent inflation, which makes us more cautious on the outlook for global markets overall,” Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, wrote in a note to clients. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.2%, led by declines in travel and property firms. Miners and energy stocks were the two strongest-performing sectors in Europe on Monday on rising prices for iron ore and oil. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index climbed as much as 2.4%, while the Energy Index gains as much as 1.5% to the highest since Feb. 24, 2020. European banking stocks also advanced on Monday, following four weeks of gains, and traded about 1.3% below pre-pandemic high. The sector has gained 36% ytd, is the best performer among 20 European sectors in 2021. Up 0.7% today, outperforming a slightly weaker broader Stoxx 600 Index and as investors tilt toward cyclical sectors. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped, buoyed by Hong Kong-listed technology shares including Meituan, which was consigned a lower-than-expected regulatory fine. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.9%, driven by the consumer-discretionary and communication sectors. Alibaba and Meituan were the top contributors to the gauge, each surging about 8% in the first trading in Hong Kong after the food-delivery giant was handed a $533 million fine for violating anti-monopolistic practices.  The result of the investigation into Meituan is “a relief and likely to provide closure to the share price overhang,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note Friday, when the penalty was announced.  Hong Kong’s stock gauge was among the top performing in the region. Japan’s benchmarks also climbed as the yen weakened to an almost three-year low against the dollar and new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he’s not considering changes to the country’s capital-gains tax at present. Improved sentiment in China is providing much-needed support to Asian equities, which declined for four straight weeks amid uncertainty circling global markets. Power shortages in China and India, supply-chain woes, inflation risks and rising bond yields are all on the radar as the earnings season kicks off. “We are still in a market that is very, very concerned about the growth outlook,” said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at IG Markets. These sort of rallies that appear almost inexplicable are “symptomatic of the market still trying to piece together all pieces of the puzzle,” he added. Australia The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,299.80, with most subgauges taking a hit. Miners advanced, posting gains for a third session, offsetting losses in healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks.  Star Entertainment was the worst performer after a report saying the company had enabled suspected money laundering, organized crime and fraud at its Australian casinos for years. Fortescue surged after the company said it plans to build a green energy factory to rival China.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.5% to 13,019.37. In FX, the pound crept higher to touch an almost 2-week high versus the dollar and the Gilt curve shifted higher, led by the front-end, after the Bank of England’s Michael Saunders, one of the most hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, suggested in remarks published Saturday that investors were right to bring forward bets on rate hikes. Hours earlier, Governor Andrew Bailey warned of a potentially “very damaging” period of inflation unless policy makers take action. Australia’s dollar led gains among G-10 currencies on the back of increases in oil, natural gas and iron ore prices and as Sydney emerges from a 15- week lockdown on Monday. Iron ore futures extended gains as improved rebar margins at Chinese steel mills buoyed demand prospects. The yen dropped against the dollar, with analysts forecasting more weakness ahead as the nation’s yield differentials widen. As noted above, treasury futures slumped in U.S. trading Monday, with the cash market closed for Columbus Day; they implied a yield of 1.65% on the 10Y. 10-year note futures price is down 8+/32, a price change equivalent to a yield increase of about 3bp. Benchmark 10-year yield ended Friday at 1.615%, its highest closing level since June, as investors focused on the inflationary aspects in mixed September employment data. China's10-year government bond futures declined to a three-month low while the yuan advanced as the central bank’s latest liquidity draining weakened expectations of fresh monetary policy easing. Futures contracts on 10-year notes fall 0.4% to 99.14, the lowest level since July 12. It dropped 0.4% on Friday. 10-year sovereign bond yields rose 5bps, the biggest gains in two months, to 2.96%. Looking ahead, upcoming reports on third-quarter company profits which start this week are seen as the next potential pressure point in a market already under siege from slowing global growth, sticky inflation and tighter monetary policies. Global earnings revisions are sliding - an omen for U.S. stocks that have taken their cue from rising earnings estimates all year. “The coming earnings’ season in the U.S. will be heavily scrutinized for pricing power, margins and clues on the shortage situation, as well as wage pressures,” according to Geraldine Sundstrom, a portfolio manager at  Pacific Investment Management Co. in London. “Already a number of large multinationals have issued warnings about production cuts and downgraded their Q3 outlook due to supply chain and labor shortages.” Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,371.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 456.41 German 10Y yield up 1.5 bps to -0.135% Euro little changed at $1.1568 MXAP up 0.8% to 196.45 MXAPJ up 0.7% to 642.13 Nikkei up 1.6% to 28,498.20 Topix up 1.8% to 1,996.58 Hang Seng Index up 2.0% to 25,325.09 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,591.71 Sensex up 0.5% to 60,358.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,299.79 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,956.30 Brent Futures up 1.9% to $83.98/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,755.02 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 94.17 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The U.S. labor market will see “ups and downs” as the pandemic lingers, but it’s premature to judge that the recovery is in peril, said San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she expects Congress to take action soon to bring the U.S. into line with a global minimum tax agreed on last week by 136 countries Chinese builders are looking to payment extensions or debt exchanges to avoid default on imminent bond obligations as liquidity conditions tighten for the real estate sector Austria will get a new chancellor, though the career diplomat stepping into Sebastian Kurz’s shoes is a close ally of the departing conservative leader who resigned over a corruption scandal Just because pandemic inflation is transitory doesn’t mean it’s going away anytime soon. That’s the awkward conclusion that policy makers and investors are arriving at, as prices accelerate all over the world. European natural gas has climbed 25% in two weeks, and oil topped $80 for the first time since 2014. Fertilizers hit a record on Friday, which means food prices -- already at a 10- year peak -- will likely rise even higher A more detailed summary of overnight news from Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive but ended the day somewhat mixed after having shrugged off the early weakness stemming from last Friday’s lacklustre performance stateside and disappointing NFP jobs data. Note, markets in Taiwan and South Korea were closed. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was the laggard with underperformance in tech, consumer stocks and defensives overshadowing the gains in commodities and with Star Entertainment the worst hit with losses of more than 20% after media outlets alleged that it enabled suspected money laundering, organised crime, fraud and foreign interference which the Co. said were misleading reports. However, downside for the index was limited as New South Wales businesses reopened from the lockdown that lasted for over three months. Nikkei 225 (+1.6%) reversed opening losses as exporters cheered a weaker currency and with the government mulling over JPY 100bln financial support for chip factory construction. Hang Seng (+2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch) were both positive following talks between China's Vice Premier Liu He and USTR Tai on Saturday in which China was said to be negotiating for a cancellation of tariffs and sanctions. The advances in Hong Kong were led by tech stocks including Meituan despite the Co. being fined CNY 3.4bln by China’s market regulator for monopolistic behaviour, as the amount was seen to be a slap on the wrist, while the gains in the mainland were only mild as participants also reflected on the substantial liquidity drains by the PBoC totalling a net CNY 510bln since Saturday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured amid the gains in Japanese stocks and lack of BoJ purchases in the market, while price action was also not helped by the continued weakness in T-note futures amid the semi-holiday conditions in US for Columbus Day in which the NYSE and the Nasdaq will open but bonds trading will remain shut. Top Asian News Australian IPOs Heading for Biggest Haul Since 2014: ECM Watch Syngenta’s Shanghai IPO Proposal Suspended For Earnings Update China Junk-Rated Dollar Bond Rout Deepens Amid Builder Worries China’s 10-Year Bond Yield Jumps By The Most Since August Bourses in Europe are mostly but modestly lower (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, Stoxx 600 -0.2%) whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) bucks the trend, owing to firm performances in its heavyweight sectors. US equity futures meanwhile trade within tight ranges with broad-based losses of some 0.3-0.4%. Fresh fundamental catalysts have remained light, although inflation and stagflation remain on traders' minds heading into this week's US and Chinese inflation metrics and against the backdrop of rising energy prices. Thus, the sector configuration sees Basic Resources, Oil & Gas and Banks at the top of the bunch, whilst the downside sees Travel & Leisure, Real Estate and Retail, with no overarching theme to be derived. Basic Resources is the marked outperformer as base metals are bolstered in what seems to be a function of the coal shortage in Asia, with iron ore contracts also surging overnight and copper following suit, in turn boosting the likes of Rio Tino (+3.2%), Antofagasta (+3.1%), Glencore (+3.1%), BHP (+2.8%). The top of the Stoxx 600 is dominated by metal names. In terms of individual movers, Carrefour (-2.2%) is softer after sources stated that exploratory talks over a Carrefour-Auchan tie-up ended due to the complexity of the deal. Evotec (+0.7%) holds onto gains as it seeks a Nasdaq listing. Roche (+0.6%) and Morphosys (+3.7%) underpin the health sector after the Cos received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the US FDA for gantenerumab for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Top European News BOE Officials Double Down on Signals of Imminent Rate Hike Brexit Clash on Northern Ireland Means Headaches for Johnson Asos CEO Beighton Steps Down as Sales Growth Slows Adler Shares Flounder After Asset Disposal Plan, Past M&A Report In FX, the Aussie has secured a considerably firmer grip of the 0.7300 handle vs its US rival as COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed in NSW and base metals tread water after a mostly positive APAC equity session overnight. However, Aud/Usd is also firmer on the back of ongoing Greenback weakness and long liquidation from what some are calling ‘stretched’ levels of IMM positioning going in to Friday’s NFP release, while the Aud/Nzd cross has rebounded further above 1.0550 in wake of a rise in NZ virus cases that has prompted the PM to keep Auckland on level 3 alert for another week pending review. Hence, Nzd/Usd is capped around 0.6950 and continues to lag on the unwinding of Kiwi longs built up in advance of last week’s universally anticipated 25 bp RBNZ hike. Back to the Buck, but looking at the index in relation to where it was before and after the latest BLS report, 94.000 is providing some underlying support on Columbus Day that is not a full US market holiday, but will see cash Treasuries remain closed. Moreover, the DXY is gleaning momentum within a narrow 94.028-214 range via marked Yen underperformance amidst the latest rout in bonds and more pronounced technical impulses as Usd/Jpy extends beyond 112.50 and sets yet another 2021 peak around 112.95. GBP - Sterling is taking up post-payrolls Dollar slack as well, but firmer in its own right too as comments from BoE Governor Bailey and MPC member Saunders add to the growing expectation that rate hikes may be delivered sooner than had been expected before the former revealed that policy-setters were evenly divided at 4-4 in August on the subject of minimum criteria being achieved for tightening. Cable is hovering under 1.3650 and Eur/Gbp is sub-0.8500 in response, with the latter not really fazed by the UK-EU rift on NI protocol. CAD/NOK - The Loonie remains firm against its US peer after the stellar Canadian jobs data and Usd/Cad continues to probe support/bids at 1.2450 against the backdrop of strength in oil prices that is also keeping the Norwegian Krona afloat and Eur/Nok eyeing deeper sub-10.0000 lows irrespective of marginally mixed vs consensus inflation metrics. CHF/EUR/SEK - All rather rangy, aimless and looking for inspiration or clearer direction as the Franc straddles 0.9275 vs the Greenback, but remains firmer against the Euro above 1.0750 following only a faint rise in Swiss domestic bank sight deposits. Meanwhile, the Euro is pivoting 1.1575 vs the Buck and looks hemmed in by decent option expiry interest just outside the range given.1 bn rolling off between 1.1540-50 and 1.6 bn from 1.1590-1.1600 at the NY cut. Elsewhere, the Swedish Crown is slipping on risk-off grounds towards 10.1250 having tested resistance circa 10.1000. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures continue the upward trajectory seen during the APAC session, with the complex underpinned heading into the winter period and against the backdrop of higher gas prices. The gains have been more pronounced in the US counterpart vs the global benchmark with no clear catalysts behind the outperformance, although this may be a continuation of the unwind seen after reports suggested a release of the US SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is unlikely. For context, reports of such a release last week took the WTI-Brent arb to almost USD 4.2/bbl vs USD 2.7/bbl at the time of writing. Furthermore, there have also been reports of lower US production under President Biden's "build back better" initiative, which puts more weight on renewable energy, with some energy analysts also suggesting that OPEC+ sees less of a threat from a "shale boom" as a result. Back to price action, WTI has been in the limelight after topping the USD 80/bbl overnight and extending gains to levels north of USD 81.50/bbl (vs low 79.55/bbl), whilst the Brent Dec contract topped USD 84.00/bbl (vs low USD 82.50/bbl). In terms of other news flow, sources suggested the fire at Lebanon's Zahrani fuel tank has been put out after the energy minister suggested the fire was contained – the cause of the fire is not yet known. Gas prices also remain elevated with UK nat gas futures relatively flat on the day but still north of GBP 2/Thm vs GBP 1/Thm mid-August and vs GBP 4/Thm last week, whilst the Qatari Energy Minister said he is unhappy about gas prices being high amid negative follow-through to customers. Over to metals, spot gold and silver are somewhat lacklustre, but with magnitudes of price action contained, with the former meandering just north of USD 1,750/oz and the latter above USD 22.50/oz heading into this week's key risk events. Overnight, iron ore futures were bolstered some 10% in Dalian and Singapore Exchanges amid fears of coking coal supply shortages - coking coal is an essential input to produce iron and steel. Traders should also be cognizant of the Chinese metrics released this week as another elevated PPI metric could see the release of more state reserves, as had been the case over the recent months. Using the Caixin PMIs as a proxy for the release, the PMI suggested sharp increases in both input costs and output prices – largely owed to supply chain delays, with the "rate of inflation was the quickest seen for four months, amid reports of greater energy and raw material costs. This, in turn, led to a solid increase in prices charged". The measure for output prices its highest in three months, whilst "the pressure of rising costs was partly transmitted downstream to consumers, as the demand was not weak." US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that it’s Columbus Day today where US bond markets are closed. Equity markets are open but expect it to be quiet. Ahead of this, this morning we have published our latest monthly survey results covering over 600 global market participants. See here for more. For the first time since June, the biggest perceived risk to markets is now higher yields and inflation, whilst direct Covid-19 risks are out of the top 3 for the first time. A further equity correction before YE remains the consensus now. 71% expect at least another 5% off equities at some point before YE (68% correctly suggested that last month). A very overwhelming 84% thought the next 25bps move in 10yr US Treasury yields would be up. Of some additional interest is that the definition of stagflation is varied but that the majority think it’s a high or very high risk for the next 12 months. The extreme of this view surprised me. While I’ve long thought the market has underestimated the inflation risks I would still say there is enough of a growth cushion for 2022. However it’s clear the risks have built. Anyway, lots more in the survey. Thanks for filling it in and see the results for details. The week ahead will centre around the US CPI release on Wednesday but it might be a touch backward looking given that energy has spiked more recently and that used car prices are again on the march after a late summer fall that will likely be captured in this week’s release. Elsewhere, we’ve got a potentially more challenging US earnings season than that seen over the last year will commence with the big financials from Wednesday. In addition minutes from the last FOMC will give clues to the latest taper thinking on Wednesday as well. The IMF/World Bank meetings will generate plenty of headlines this week with their latest world outlook update tomorrow the highlight. The best of the rest data wise consists of JOLTS (Tuesday),which we think is a better labour market indicator than payrolls albeit a month behind, US PPI (Thursday) which will give a scale of building pipeline price pressures, US retail sales and UoM consumer sentiment (Friday), and China’s CPI and PPI (Thursday). With all that to look forward to, markets have started the week on a strong note, with equity indices including the Hang Seng (+2.02%), Nikkei (+1.57%), CSI (+0.32%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.32%) all moving higher, whilst the Kospi (-0.11%) has seen a slight decline. Japanese stocks have been buoyed by comments from new PM Kishida over the weekend that he isn’t currently considering changes to the country’s capital-gains tax. That comes with just 20 days remaining until the country’s general election. Separately in China, the country’s energy woes continue with 60 of 682 coal mines closed in the Shanxi province due to heavy floods, with Chinese coal futures up +8.00% this morning. And the property market issues are continuing to persist, with a new Chinese developer Modern Land seeking a 3 month extension to a $250 million dollar bond due to mature on October 25. By the end of last week, a Bloomberg index of Chinese junk-rated dollar bonds had seen yields climb to a decade-high above 17%, so clearly one to still look out for. Unlike in Asia, equity futures are pointing lower in the US and Europe this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.21%. In terms of the main highlight it’s clearly US CPI mid-week. Given my views that inflation risks have been massively understated this year I’ve been saying for months that these reports have potentially been the most important monthly data we have seen for years. But since they mostly come and go with a “meh… mostly transitory” and a relative whimper, I’ve clearly been wrong to over hype them. So ignore me when I say that this month’s report might not be that interesting. With energy soaring over the last month and signs of inflation pressures continuing to build elsewhere then I’m not sure we can read too much into this month’s figures. Take used cars. Given the 2-3 month lag between actual prices and their CPI impact, this month will more than likely reflect a softening of prices in the summer. However September saw prices rise +5.4% so this will probably show up towards the end of the year along with the recent rise in energy costs. Our economists expect a +0.41% headline (vs. +0.27% previously) and +0.27% core (vs. +0.10%) mom rate. This is a bit above consensus and would take the yoy rate to 5.4% (up a tenth) and 4.1% (unch) respectively. Speaking of inflationary pressures, this morning has seen energy prices take a further leg higher, with WTI oil (+1.90%) moving back above $80/bbl for the first time since late 2014, whilst Brent crude (+1.42%) has moved above $83/bbl. European natural gas prices will continue to be an important one to follow amidst the astonishing price surge there, but the declines at the end of last week mean prices finished the week down by more than -45% since their intraday peak on Wednesday, before the comments from Russian President Putin that brought down prices. The rest of the day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual but although it’s a second tier release normally, tomorrow’s JOLTS will be interesting in as far as it might confirm that the main labour problems in August were a lack of supply rather than demand. The report’s full value is reduced by it being a number of weeks out of date but there’s a reasonable argument for saying that this is a better gauge of the state of the labour market than the payroll release. We go through Friday’s mixed report at the end when looking back at last week. Outside of data, it’s that time again as earnings season gets going, with a number of US financials kicking things off from mid-week. In terms of the highlights, we’ll hear from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, we’ll get UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs. For more info on the upcoming earnings season, you can read DB’s equity strategists Q3 S&P 500 preview here. Back to markets, it was interesting over the weekend that the BoE’s Saunders chose to endorse market expectation of an earlier start to the hiking cycle in the UK rather than push back against it. He is on the more hawkish end of the spectrum but it was an important statement. Earlier, Governor Bailey suggested that there could potentially be a very damaging period of higher inflation ahead if policy makers didn’t react. Interestingly our survey showed that the market thinks the BoE is likely to make a policy error by being too hawkish so a battle seems likely to commence over policy here in the UK over the coming weeks and months. The November meeting appears live. Those comments have helped to support the pound this morning, which is up by +0.16% against the US Dollar. Looking back to last week now, risk sentiment was supported in the first full week of Q4 by easing European energy prices and a cease fire on the debt ceiling that avoided disaster and bought Washington lawmakers 8 weeks to find a more permanent solution. Global equity indices thus gained on the week: the S&P 500 picked up +0.79%, with a slight -0.19% pullback on Friday, and European equities kept pace with the STOXX 600 rallying +0.97% (-0.28% on Friday). Cyclical stocks led the way on both sides of the Atlantic; energy stocks were among the best performers whist financials benefitted from higher yields and a steeper curve. Speaking of which, US 10yr Treasury yields gained a punchy +14.1bps to close the week at 1.603%, their highest levels since early June. The benchmark gradually increased 3.0bps after Friday’s employment data. Inflation compensation continued to drive rate increases, as US 10yr breakevens gained +13.5 bps to finish the week at 2.515%. We need to go back to May to find higher levels. The sovereign yield increases were global in nature, with German bunds gaining +7.3bps and UK gilts +15.6bps higher. German 10yr breakevens gained +3.9bps while UK breakevens were +12.0bps higher. US nonfarm payrolls increased +194k in September, well below consensus expectations of a +500k gain, though private payrolls increased +317k and net two month revisions were up +169k. The unemployment rate ticked down to a post-pandemic low of 4.8% on the back of a declining labour force participation rate. Average hourly earnings were robust, increasing +0.6% mom (+0.4% expected). Taken in concert, the print likely cleared the (admittedly low) bar to enable the FOMC to announce tapering at the November meeting, whilst also feeding the creeping stagflation narrative (see survey results). Elsewhere, building on a preliminary July deal, the OECD said 136 nations have signed up to implement a 15% minimum global tax rate to address adequate taxation of multinational tech firms. As part of the deal, countries agreed not to impose any additional digital services taxes.       Tyler Durden Mon, 10/11/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 11th, 2021