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With 2024 U.S. Open in sight, famed hotel at Pinehurst Resort to get major upgrades (Renderings)

"The Queen of the South" first opened in 1901 and is now set to see some big improvements as Pinehurst continues to gain momentum......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsDec 5th, 2021

12 luxury hotels on the Las Vegas Strip that will make you feel like a high roller without spending like one

These are the best luxury hotels in Las Vegas on the Strip in 2021, from the hotel-within-a-hotel The Palazzo at the Venetian to the Four Seasons. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. TripAdvisor Las Vegas hotels offer opulent luxury at surprisingly cheap prices. Many five-star stays on or near the Las Vegas Strip often start under $250 per night. The best luxury hotels in Las Vegas boast spacious suites, private pools, excellent views, and more. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyThere's plenty to gamble on in Las Vegas, but you don't have to risk the odds when it comes to choosing a hotel. Las Vegas is one of the few US cities where a luxury hotel can regularly start under $250 per night, sometimes as low as $75 to $100. Of course, weekends and high seasons will bring increased prices, but with a little sleuthing you might just snag a great deal so you can save those extra dollars for Sin City's casino floors, top-notch restaurants, and world-class entertainment. Browse all the best luxury Las Vegas hotels below, or jump directly to a specific area:The best luxury hotels in Las VegasFAQ: Luxury hotels in Las VegasHow we selected the best Las Vegas luxury hotelsMore of the best places to stay in Las VegasThese are the best luxury hotels in Las Vegas, sorted by price from low to high. Signature at MGM Grand Every room here is a suite with apartment-like features. Tripadvisor Book Signature at MGM GrandTypical starting/peak prices: $89/$320Best for: Families, business travelersOn-site amenities: Pool, restaurants, shopsPros: All rooms are quiet, apartment-style suites with kitchenettes and are close to the action but removed from the party atmosphere.Cons: The walk to MGM Grand is long and some may view the off-Strip location and lack of a casino as a con.The Signature is an all-suite hotel set back from the MGM Grand's main resort and casino but is still easily accessible to it by indoor walkways. There's no casino on-site, which means the crowd is less rowdy, and the hotel feels peaceful. There are fewer amenities too, though all of the restaurants, entertainment, and wellness found at MGM Grand are just steps away. We once used the Chase Sapphire Reserve card to book here and scored extra perks such as free upgrade, late checkout, and complimentary food and beverage credit. Spacious suites are quiet and include spa baths, flat-screen TVs, separate sitting areas, balconies, and kitchenettes for an apartment-like experience. It's a great fit for a family or someone in town for business on an extended stay.COVID-19 procedures are available here. NoMad Las Vegas The luxe NoMad has its own sleek pool that is private from guests at adjacent Park MGM. Trip Advisor Book NoMad Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $99/$345Best for: Couples, friendsOn-site amenities: Spa, salon, fitness center, restaurants, Moroccan-themed pool deck just for NoMad guestsPros: The hotel feels in-the-know and stylish, hidden away from the throngs filling Park MGM, while still offering easy access to its amenities. Cons: The hotel within a hotel concept is intimate, and lacks the big Vegas punch of other big resorts.Located on the upper four floors of the Park MGM Las Vegas, the NoMad Las Vegas is the third location from the luxury NoMad hotel group with properties in New York and Los Angeles.It's one of many hotel-within-a-hotel concepts that are popular in Las Vegas (and within this list) for a more intimate, boutique-quality that feels rare in this town of mega-resorts. Rooms are decadent and design-forward featuring hardwood floors, velvet furnishings, and standalone soaking bathtubs in the bedroom.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Aria Resort & Casino Aria has a 150,000-square-foot casino, 16 restaurants, and more than 4,000 rooms. Trip Advisor Book Aria Resort & Casino Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $107/$359Best for: Groups of friends, couplesOn-site amenities: Casino, 16 restaurants, CityCenter shops, nightclub, huge spa, three pools, fitness centerPros: Rooms boast high-end technology for an exceptionally comfortable stay and the location is very central to the Las Vegas Strip.Cons: Food is pricey on property, as is the resort fee.Located on the Las Vegas Strip within the CityCenter complex, Aria is a glittering curvilinear property with a 150,000-square-foot casino, 16 restaurants, and more than 4,000 rooms. Opened just a decade ago, rooms feature fully tricked-out tech, including a one-touch room control system to adjust lighting, curtains, and more from the touch of a tablet.Hakkasan Group's Jewel nightclub is located here, as is a huge spa with 62 treatment rooms, and three pools, including the Liquid pool club for grown folks.Plus, the location is central, close to the City Center, conference events, and all the Strip action.COVID-19 status and policies available here. The Venetian Resort Las Vegas Even the cheapest standard rooms are suites with separate living areas. The Venetian Book The Venetian Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $113/$399Best for: Families, first-time visitors, couples, business travelersOn-site amenities: Casino, theater, night club, Grand Canal Shoppes, multiple pools, 80 restaurants, bars, spa, fitness centerPros: Even entry-level rooms at this all-suite hotel are impressively large, and it's tough to beat taking an indoor gondola around. Cons: The opulent style might not be to your tastes if you prefer a sleeker, modern look. This five-star Las Vegas Strip resort is one of the most instantly recognizable resorts on the Las Vegas Strip. Drawing inspiration from Italy, it's best known for its indoor canals and gondola rides, modeled off its namesake city. However, vast interiors show off an array of architectural styles and swathes of Renaissance-era aesthetics, and the hotel is one of the most visually impressive in a city of decadent hotels.There are 80 restaurants — including Thomas Keller's Bouchon — a glittering casino, the Grand Canal Shoppes, and a pool deck that covers 1.2 acres, and every room is a suite, and huge, starting at 650 square feet.The Venetian also connects to the Sands Expo & Convention Center, and guests are granted access to the Canyon Ranch Spa Club gym.COVID-19 procedures are available here.Read our full hotel review of The Venetian Encore at Wynn Las Vegas The Encore is the Wynn's take on a boutique hotel. Oyster.com Book the Encore at WynnTypical starting/peak prices: $115/$410Best for: Groups of friends, couples, familiesOn-site amenities: Encore-only pool, access to Wynn's mega-complex of restaurants, bars, nightclubs, spa, pools, gym, and even a golf course.Pros: This hotel has a boutique vibe with all the perks of a huge resort that caters to a sleek set.Cons: Room pricing is volatile and can swing dramatically in either direction.Not to be confused with the Wynn itself, the Encore is the Wynn's take on a boutique offering. It also comes with all the benefits of being housed within a parent property.While guests of the Wynn can't use Encore facilities, such as the pool, all those booked at Encore are allowed privileges at both. I've scored cheaper deals at Encore, though historically it's sometimes more expensive than Wynn. If you like the glitz of the Wynn but think it feels too overwhelming, or prefer a more intimate approach, the Encore offers a solid alternative.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Nobu Hotel at Caesars Palace Nobu Hotel is zen and quiet, with 182 stylish, Japanese-inspired rooms and suites. Trip Advisor Book Nobu Hotel at Caesars Palace Las VegasTypical starting price: $116/$447Best for: Couples, business travelersOn-site amenities: Nobu restaurant, pool, spa, the full slate of dining, shopping, and entertainment available at adjacent Caesars PalacePros: The hotel is quiet and private with a gorgeous Japanese-inspired design by noted architect David Rockwell.Cons: There is a steep resort fee of $45 per night plus tax.Inside the blockbuster 85-acre, 3,960 room resort Caesars Palace, the intimate Nobu Hotel is tucked away as a boutique hotel-within-a-hotel concept, created by the famed sushi chef of the same name. If Caesars is frenetic and bustling, Nobu Hotel is uber-Zen and quiet, with 182 stylish, Japanese-inspired rooms and suites. Staying here feels a bit like being a celebrity, with added VIP perks.Rooms channel Japanese traditions with deep soaking tubs and come with free Wi-Fi, a 55-inch flat-screen TV, an iPod docking station, and Natura Bisse toiletries, as well as priority seating at Nobu Restaurant and Lounge. Nobu Hotel guests also have access to a private front desk and lounge, the Venus Pool at Caesars Palace, expedited line privilege at OMNIA nightclub, a complimentary Friday social hour, and a dedicated hotel concierge.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Bellagio Las Vegas We love the Bellagio for its central location, designer shopping, and iconic fountain show. TripAdvisor Book Bellagio Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $119/$475Best for: Families, first-time visitors, business travelersOn-site amenities: Casino, multiple restaurants and bars, nightlife, spa, pool, designer shoppingPros: This is a fashionable hotel with a classy casino, excellent shopping, and a must-try buffet. Cons: You'll have to brave the summer heat to score cheap prices here.The Bellagio draws a consistent crowd for its central Strip location, popular casino, designer fashion, and curated art, including the signature Dale Chihuly glass installation hanging from the lobby ceiling.It's also a huge draw to those craning for a front-row view of the dancing fountains, and there's no better spot than a room overlooking the action. We've reviewed the balcony room facing the fountains and can confirm it's one of the best rooms on the Strip. Plus, in what's clearly a competitive field, they might have one of the best buffets in Las Vegas, though that's subject to change in a post-pandemic world. COVID-19 procedures are available here.Read our full hotel review of Bellagio Las Vegas Wynn Las Vegas The Wynn is renowned as one of the best on the Strip with world-class amenities, dining, gambling, and entertainment. Booking.com Book the Wynn Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $131/$497Best for: Groups of friends, couples, families, first-time visitors, business travelersOn-site amenities: Casino, designer shops, entertainment theater, fitness center, spa, pools, multiple restaurants and barsPros: No detail is overlooked at this stunning resort with a beautiful pool and spa area, beautiful guest rooms, and plenty to keep you on-site.Cons: Some might view the Strip location as far from other attractions, and prices surge in the high season.I once stayed at this luxury resort and casino and was blown away by the level of detail and thoughtfulness in each generously appointed guest room. The design is immaculate with a clean, modern palette and smart-enabled features that only add to an air of sophistication. Since then, the hotel's reputation has only continued to grow as one of the best on the Strip with world-class resort amenities, dining, gambling, and entertainment. There's a reason it's consistently rated as one of the best places to stay in Vegas and if you can secure a good deal, this might be one of the best places to book.COVID-19 procedures are available here.Read our full hotel review of the Wynn Las Vegas Waldorf Astoria Las Vegas A posh pool deck strikes a serene tone. Trip Advisor Book the Waldorf Astoria Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $139/$384Best for: Couples, business travelersOn-site amenities: French restaurant, 3 pools, spa, fitness center, easy access to CityCenter complexPros: The Waldorf is a leading figure in luxury and this location is no exception.Cons: A major renovation was delayed due to COVID.Travelers accustomed to the highest level of hospitality book this five-star property known for immaculate service and spacious rooms that start at 500 square feet with extravagant soaking tubs.With no casino on-site, it's another great option when you prefer a more blissful stay. If you come to Vegas for luxe spas, pools, and dining, this is a great bet.COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Palazzo at the Venetian Spread out in standard suites with ample living spaces, plush bedding, sleek bathrooms, all the amenities of the Venetian. TripAdvisor Book The Palazzo at The VenetianTypical starting/peak prices: $142/$399Best for: Groups of friends, couples, familiesOn-site amenities: Pool, spa, access to the Venetian's casino, restaurants, bars, and nightclubs, and entertainment.Pros: This is like a higher-end version of The Venetian with close access to all its attractions.Cons: While prices in summer are cheap, expect them to skyrocket at other times when it's more comfortable to visit the desert.While The Venetian is perhaps more well-known, and cheaper, consider a stay at its sister property, The Palazzo.Newer and more low-key but equally refined, even The Palazzo's standard rooms are dubbed Luxury Suites and are not only more up-to-date than entry-level Venetian offerings but significantly larger. Spread out with ample living spaces, plush bedding, sleek bathrooms, and relish in the fact that your room is just steps from tons of the Strip's best attractions, plus all that the Venetian has to offer.COVID-19 status and policies available here. The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, Autograph Collection Bold, sleek, decor shines on the casino floor, especially in the signature Chandelier Bar. Tripadvisor Book The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, Autograph CollectionTypical starting/peak prices: $150/$500Best for: Groups of friends, couplesOn-site amenities: Celebrity chef-driven restaurants, several bars and lounges, a pool deck with dive-in movie nights, gym, Drybar salonPros: Staying at Cosmo offers the trimmings of a Las Vegas resort in a boutique format. The central location is one of the best on the Strip, and balcony views are hard to come by elsewhere.Cons: In high season, expect the starting rate to at least double.The Cosmopolitan is trendy, hip, and sophisticated, and generally feels like you're hanging out inside a chandelier (likely why they have a bar named after one). It's a favorite among those visiting Las Vegas who want to join in on nightlife action over betting at tables, though the latter is readily available too. Plus, it's one of the few hotels with balconies — request one facing Bellagio for a great view of the fountain show.A member of the Autograph Collection of hotels, it's also a great way for Marriott Bonvoy members to earn and redeem points. Book here if you're looking to blur the lines between a glam getaway and a healthy dose of revelry.COVID-19 procedures are available here.Read our full hotel review of The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas The Four Seasons Hotel Las Vegas There's a private, tranquil pool area just for Four Seasons guests, plus all the perks and attention to detail associated with the brand. Trip Advisor Book the Four Seasons Hotel Las VegasTypical starting/peak prices: $250/$495Best for: Couples, business travelersOn-site amenities: Private pool only for Four Seasons guests, all the bars, restaurants, spa of Mandalay Bay.Pros: Enjoy top luxury accommodations with impeccable service and a private pool that is separate from the more raucous Mandalay Bay.Cons: The Mandalay Bay crowd can be rowdy, and you still have to navigate that space to find the Four Seasons. The location is also at the far end of the Las Vegas Strip.The Four Seasons is a symbol of luxury and one that often comes with an accompanying high price tag. However, I've seen deals around $200 per night at this location hidden within Mandalay Bay, and it's widely regarded as one of the nicest hotels in Vegas.Rooms feel like a scintillating oasis of luxury, cocooned away from the frenetic pace of the Strip, though, it's right there when you choose to seek it out. There's a private, tranquil pool area for Four Seasons guests only, plus all the perks and indulgent attention to detail you'd expect from a Four Seasons.COVID-19 procedures are available here. FAQ: Luxury hotels in Las Vegas Westend61/Getty Images Where is Las Vegas?Las Vegas is located in the southern tip of the state of Nevada, near the borders of both California and Arizona. When will I find the best deals on Las Vegas luxury hotels?You'll often find the cheapest hotel prices in Las Vegas midweek in summer, when scorching hot temperatures keep most travelers away, or in the winter, after New Year's Day, when it's still too cool to hit the pool. Once the temperatures turn milder, expect prices to rise.Much of Las Vegas tourism also revolves around an annual convention calendar, which often drives up hotel prices. Holidays also see an influx of crowds.Why are Las Vegas hotels cheap?Because Vegas resorts make most of their profits on the casino floor, cheap room rates are intended to attract guests who will then spend their extra money on slots and tables.As Las Vegas is located in a desert climate, you can expect hot, hot summers and cool winters. No matter when you visit, it's likely to be chilly at night. Early winter and spring, however, offer the nicest, mildest weather when it will be the most comfortable to stroll the Las Vegas Strip or lounge at the pool.Though, if you're planning to spend most of your time indoors on the casino or convention floor, the weather likely won't be a big factor when considering the time of year to visit.Is Las Vegas open?Las Vegas is open, without restrictions involving capacity limits and large gatherings.However, the State of Nevada has mandated that everyone, including fully vaccinated individuals, wear a mask in public indoor settings, including resorts and casinos, restaurants, bars, showrooms, and meeting spaces. Masks are also required on public transportation.Large indoor events also have masks, testing, and vaccination requirements so check before arriving both with local Las Vegas mandates, the Nevada Health Response updates, as well as your individual hotel and destination.Is it safe to stay in hotels right now?The CDC says fully vaccinated people can safely travel in the US. And, with added caution, experts we spoke to said it is safe to stay in a hotel.  How we selected the best Las Vegas luxury hotels All hotels are five-star stays with exceptional luxury service, decor, rooms, amenities, and high-quality attractions.Hotels have been personally visited and/or vetted by our team of reviewers whenever possible, and include accompanying reviews in most cases.Every standard room in this list feels like you've upgraded to a suite or more indulgent offering.Hotels are also loved by guests with top ratings and reviews on sites such as Trip Advisor, Booking.com, and Hotels.com.All of these luxury hotels are priced under $250 per night to start in the low season. For this guide, we looked for hotels on or right near the Strip. However, you may also want to consider some of the best Vegas hotels off the Strip too.All hotels also have updated COVID-19 policies, which we've outlined below.Hotel rooms are sophisticated and spacious, even for entry-level, standard rooms. More of the best places to stay in Las Vegas Airbnb The best cheap hotels in Las VegasThe best Las Vegas hotels off the StripThe best Las Vegas hotel suites for all budgetsThe best Las Vegas Airbnbs Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 24th, 2021

Some of the best hotels in Las Vegas aren"t on the Strip - here"s where to find a great stay starting at $30

Here's where to stay off the Strip in Las Vegas, including cheap and luxury hotels near Downtown, Fremont Street, Summerlin, Henderson, and Red Rocks. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Tripadvisor The Las Vegas Strip draws millions, but locals know that's not the real heart of the city. Downtown Las Vegas, Fremont Street, and suburbs are more authentic with cheaper casinos and hotels. Some of the best Las Vegas hotels are off-Strip, from retro motels to luxury amid the Red Rocks. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyThe Las Vegas Strip is the city's glitzy, showy draw, luring millions of tourists each year. But it's hardly the sole attraction.As a Las Vegas local, I want you to know there's much more to this wonderful city than just what you'll find along Las Vegas Boulevard. And while you can (and should) enjoy time on the Strip, going off-Strip will show you a part of the city you've never experienced, one that's neighborhood-centric, artsy, outdoorsy, and filled with character.As such, the next time you're looking for a Las Vegas hotel, consider an off-Strip hotel. From historic Fremont Street hotels that lean into a vintage Vegas aesthetic to luxurious desert escapes with spas and pools, these off-Strip hotels also boast lower prices and gaming minimums than their Las Vegas Boulevard counterparts. Browse all the best off-Strip Las Vegas hotels below, or jump directly to a specific area:The best off-Strip hotels in Las VegasFAQ: Las Vegas hotelsHow we selected the best off-Strip hotels in Las VegasMore of the best places to stay in Las VegasThese are the best off-Strip hotels in Las Vegas, sorted by price from low to high. El Cortez Hotel & Casino This property dating back to 1941 is the longest continuously-running casino in Las Vegas. Tripadvisor Book El Cortez Hotel & CasinoCategory: BudgetNeighborhood: Downtown Typical starting/peak price: $30/$125Best for: Groups of friends, solo travelers, couplesOn-site amenities: 24-restaurant known for its shrimp cocktail and prime rib, bars with live entertainment, spa, beauty salon, old-school barbershop, casino, sportsbookPros: This is a very budget-friendly option in the heart of the trendy Fremont East District that will be enticing to history buffs. The 1941 era property is the longest continuously-running casino in Las Vegas.Cons: This is an older property that is showing its age. You will either find it charming or hopelessly dated. There's also no pool.Listed on the National Register of Historic Places, the El Cortez and its pink neon cursive sign harken back to the early days of Las Vegas. The Spanish Colonial Revival style architecture stands out in a city increasingly defined by steel and glass.Step inside and find a dimly lit casino, a lobby bar with a live piano, and no-frills rooms. Amenities are limited. There's no pool and the retail space is just a small general store.Most people who appreciate the El Cortez do so because they either like the history or the low prices. For something more modern, book a room at the El Cortez Cabana Suites, the 64-room sister property across the street with tufted white headboards, green walls, marble bathrooms, and a fitness center.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Downtown Grand Hotel & Casino Vibrant, bright colors create a tropical look on the aptly named Citrus Pool Deck. Tripadvisor Book Downtown Grand Hotel & CasinoCategory: BudgetNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak price: $33/$217Best for: Couples, groups of friends, locals On-site amenities: Lively rooftop pool, bars, restaurants, live entertainment, meeting and event spacePros: The 3rd Street location gives easy access to stellar restaurants and the Mob Museum is just across the street. Also, the hotel's rooftop pool has dreamy views come sunset.Cons: The on-site Art Bar, which has paintings hanging from the ceiling, used to be an under-the-radar cocktail lounge, but in recent years, the resort has served continental breakfast there, which feels like a downgrade.Can't decide between the raucous Fremont Street Experience and the slightly more chill East Fremont District? Then try the Downtown Grand, which expertly straddles that line.The recently expanded property (the hotel's 495-room Gallery Tower opened in September 2020) still feels boutique despite the budget price tag. Rooms are simple but comfortable, with white walls, geometric accents, and floor-to-ceiling windows.The real highlight is the Citrus Grand Pool Deck, which was voted the best of Las Vegas' best Downtown hotel pool in 2020. When I first moved to Vegas, I whiled away many a desert afternoon at this rooftop oasis; I love the cocktail program and the city views. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Oasis at Gold Spike Known for its party scene, the pool at Gold Spike is a lively one. Booking.com Book Oasis at Gold SpikeCategory: BoutiqueNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak price: $35/$149Best for: Groups of friends, solo travelers, young professionalsOn-site amenities: Pool, bike rentals, restaurant, bar, coworking space, fitness center, backyard area with gamesPros: This hotel is vibrant and social. It's not just close to the party; this is the party. Plus, unique rooms include a solar-powered trailer and the penthouse where the 31st season of The Real World was filmed.Cons: This hotel can be very loud (especially on weekends) and rooms are small.Like a lot of things in Downtown Las Vegas, the Oasis at Gold Spike (formerly the Gold Spike Hotel & Casino) used to be a little bit seedy. Now, it's a millennial/Gen Z hangout with a vinyl soundtrack, a coworking space that turns into a house party at night, and 130 hotel rooms. Notably absent: a casino.Staying here is like staying at a deliberately cool hostel, minus the bunk beds. You'll have your own room, but it'll be small and basic, simply a place to crash after staying out all night. Then you'll wake up, grab a cocktail from the 24-hour bar, and hit the pool.The Oasis at Gold Spike is also steps from all of the bars and restaurants on Fremont Street, so there's much to explore within walking distance, although to be honest, on most nights, the best party is right here.COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Plaza Hotel & Casino An iconic mural keeps watch over the pool at this equally iconic hotel. Tripadvisor Book The Plaza Hotel & CasinoCategory: BudgetNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak price: $39/$145Best for: Groups of friends, couplesOn-site amenities: Rooftop pool with pickleball court, an outdoor equestrian center that hosts rodeos, bingo, bars, restaurants including a steakhouse that was seen in the movie "Casino"Pros: This budget-friendly hotel has a prime Fremont Street location with unique amenities (name another Downtown hotel that hosts the National Finals Rodeo; you can't) and great views.Cons: The Plaza opened in 1971 and despite a $35 million renovation in 2010, the property still shows signs of wear, particularly in guest hallways and rooms. Nearly every Las Vegas local (and many a visitor) has taken a photo beneath the twinkling gold lights at the entrance to The Plaza. This backdrop, like the hotel itself, is classic Las Vegas.The 995-room property excels by leaning into the 70's vintage vibe hard. From the banana-leaf wallpaper at the coffee shop to the retro Palm Springs-inspired rooftop pool lounge, The Plaza will feel like a Killers music video if you're a young traveler (Spoiler: It was actually in a Killers music video) and you will unironically enjoy the bingo, smoky casino, and showgirl-bespeckled carpet.In some places, The Plaza feels retro in all the right ways — the steakhouse overlooking Fremont Street, the colorful pool area — in other places, such as the 325-square-foot Deluxe rooms, it feels dated and spartan. Spring for a renovated room (especially one of the Pool Patio rooms which includes a private covered patio) or request one of the newer Luxe rooms, which come with voice-activated Amazon Echoes.COVID-19 procedures are available here. M Resort Spa & Casino The 100,000 square-foot pool complex has two infinity pools including a family-friendly pool and a separate day club pool that hosts parties. Tripadvisor Book M Resort Spa & CasinoCategory: Luxury Neighborhood: HendersonTypical starting/peak price: $78/$345Best for: Families, localsOn-site amenities: Pool with summer parties, spa, fitness center, restaurants including a steakhouse and artisan bakery, lounge with UFC viewing partiesPros: M Resort has a locally-loved pool and a location that is convenient for activities in the Henderson area. Rooms are quiet and have unique views.Cons: The surrounding area isn't much of a destination — think suburban sprawl.A staycation favorite among locals, M Resort has a 100,000 square-foot pool complex with two infinity pools. There's a family-friendly pool and a separate day club pool that hosts parties that allow guests to have the option of both a party environment and a more mellow one.Because the property is located south of the Strip in the Henderson area, rooms feature unique views. They're modern and luxe, outfitted with floor-to-ceiling windows, power blinds, and raw wooden decor. On-site restaurants are also a bright spot; find everything from a deli to a steakhouse, and a Raiders-themed bar and grill, which is a popular recent addition.The M Resort is not a place to stay if you want to be close to the action of the Strip and Downtown Las Vegas, but odds are if you're choosing this hotel, a respite from the mayhem is what you're seeking.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino The pool complex here is expansive, with restaurants, bars, and even a 200,000-gallon shark tank. Tripadvisor Book Golden Nugget Hotel & CasinoCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak price: $79/$179Best for: Couples, familiesOn-site amenities: Expansive pool complex with a 200,000-gallon shark tank, wide selection of restaurants and bars, nightclub with patio overlooking Fremont Street, spa, salon, fitness center, retail shopsPros: Multiple fine dining options and comfortable rooms make this a great base, and it's also dog-friendly (not as common Downtown as it is on the Strip). Plus, the shark tank with a slide going through it in the pool area is a fun perk.Cons: Golden Nugget is not as budget-friendly as other Fremont Street hotels and the nightclub may not dazzle guests who are used to the Strip's more opulent ones.Before Circa, the Golden Nugget was the correct answer to, "where can I stay Downtown if I like the vibe of the Strip?" The property, which is in the center of the Fremont Street Experience, has marble floors, upscale restaurants, and a large casino.A large number of the rooms were recently renovated (the Carson Tower and Gold Tower rooms were renovated in 2018 and 2015 respectively) and feature neutral decor, comfortable mattresses, and lots of space. The Rush Tower rooms with California King beds and 439-square feet of space are an excellent value (expect to pay $109-$229 approximately). The pool complex is huge, and even has a shark tank with an adjacent water slide.COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Signature at MGM Grand Every room here is a suite with apartment-like features. Tripadvisor Book The Signature at MGM GrandCategory: Luxury Neighborhood: Near StripTypical starting/peak price: $99/$599Best for: Business travelers, couplesOn-site amenities: Pool, spa, fitness center, lounge, cafePros: All rooms are suites with balconies, which is a real rarity in Las Vegas. It's also slightly removed from the Strip while offering easy access to it.Cons: There are very limited on-site food and drink options unless you walk to the adjacent MGM Grand.If you want to be near the Strip without being directly on the Strip, the Signature at MGM Grand is one of the best options you'll find. This non-gaming property, which is less than a mile from the Strip, is connected to the massive playground that is the MGM Grand (you won't even have to go outside to walk to it) but still feels completely separate.The lobby is tranquil and elegant, and rooms come with kitchenettes, separate living room areas, and in some cases, balconies. Upgrade to a Deluxe Balcony Suite to secure one. They also have spacious spa bathrooms with a rainfall shower, a deep soaking tub, and a TV.While sunning on your balcony, don't be surprised if the view is of a rowdy pool party at the nearby Wet Republic Ultra Pool.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa and Casino This family-friendly resort is located in one of Las Vegas' most desirable suburbs. Tripadvisor Book Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa and CasinoCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: HendersonTypical starting/peak price: $99/$500Best for: Families, locals, foodiesOn-site amenities: Pool, spa, salon, arcade, restaurants, bars, fitness center, concert, event spacePros: Family-friendly and Vegas don't always go hand-in-hand, so the kid-friendly amenities such as the Cyber Quest arcade are a nice touch. Also, locally-acclaimed restaurant Pizza Rock has a location here, which is not to be missed.Cons: Guests complain about long check-in times and long distances between parking areas and rooms. The Las Vegas neighborhood of Green Valley is attractive with locals due to its safety, proximity to the Strip (about a 15-20 minute drive), and The District at Green Valley Ranch, an open-air shopping and dining area. Travelers staying at Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa and Casino, which is just a five-minute walk from The District at Green Valley Ranch, will appreciate these same things.The well-manicured property feels as big as some Strip resorts and has a similar scope of amenities too, including high-end restaurants. Italian restaurant Bottiglia offers a lively brunch with bottomless mimosas, Borracha Mexican Cantina has fresh fish tacos, and Tides Oyster Bar has an outstanding fresh seafood selection.The rooms at Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa and Casino are nothing out of the ordinary, with beige and chocolate brown accents and flat-screen televisions, but they're a good value. Just expect to pay more on weekends.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Virgin Hotels Las Vegas, Curio Collection by Hilton Bright, bold rooms are stylish and new and suites are especially spacious. Virgin Hotels Book Virgin Hotels Las Vegas, Curio Collection by HiltonCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: Near StripTypical starting/peak price: $111/$500Best for: Groups of friends, couples, Hilton loyalistsOn-site amenities: Live music venue, beach club, pool, spa, fitness center, meeting and event space, sportsbook with interactive games, bars, restaurantsPros: The aesthetic throughout the property aims to please, and rooms are bright and modern with just a bit of quirkiness.Cons: Near Strip is definitely not on-Strip. Expect a 25-minute walk to Las Vegas Boulevard if you dare to go on foot. The brand new Virgin Hotels Las Vegas emerged on former the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino site in 2021 and has made a strong case for a pilgrimage away from the Strip. Though, it is a solid mile away from Las Vegas Boulevard.The hotel is colorful and inviting with jewel-toned furniture and bold accent walls. Rooms are white with pops of color and interesting, modern light fixtures. The property also scores major points for embracing its desert location. You'll be greeted with cacti at the entrance, and once inside, you're met with an infusion of color.Dining and drinking feature venues from Todd English and Nobu Matsuhisa, and as long as you aren't counting on an easy stroll to the Strip, this property will impress. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Circa Resort & Casino The epic pool complex dubbed Stadium Swim is a sight to behold. Tripadvisor Book Circa Resort & CasinoCategory: Luxury Neighborhood: Downtown Las VegasTypical starting/peak price: $139/$639Best for: Groups of friends, couples, locals on staycationOn-site amenities: Year-round pool deck with a massive outdoor screen that broadcasts live sports games, swanky 60th-floor rooftop lounge, three-story sportsbook, the longest outdoor bar on Fremont Street, restaurantsPros: Circa opened in 2020 as the first newly-built hotel-casino in Downtown Las Vegas in 40 years, and it shows. Everything feels fresh, from the art installations in the parking garage (which the resort calls Garage Mahal) to sapphire and gold accents in guest rooms. This is a hotel for people who want a luxury Strip resort but in Downtown Las Vegas.Cons: This hotel still comes with a Strip resort price tag; Circa can be pricier than nearby Fremont Street properties.Located on the former site of the Las Vegas Club, Circa dominates the Downtown Las Vegas skyline with an angular design that looks distinctly modern compared to neighboring hotels.The property, owned by locally famous Derek Stevens who also runs the nearby The D Casino and Hotel, is flashy and upscale. For example, there's a display case containing 1,000 ounces of gold on the rooftop lounge and suites come with Balmain products in the bathroom.Instead of one rooftop pool, there are six spread across three levels. Dubbed Stadium Swim, it features six temperature-controlled pools, two swim-up bars, and a 143-foot diagonal, 14-million-megapixel LED screen, always playing the day's biggest sports games and events. Like most Vegas locals, I am partial to Vegas Vickie's, the casino bar that features Vegas Vickie herself, a beloved neon cowgirl who stood watch over Fremont Street for more than three decades. In a hotel that's so intensely modern, it's nice to see this nod to the neighborhood's past. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Red Rock Casino Resort Spa Red Rock's pool complex is serene and lush, lined with palms for ample shade. Hotels.com Book Red Rock Casino Resort SpaCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: SummerlinTypical starting/peak price: $139/$600Best for: Couples, familiesOn-site amenities: lush pool, upscale restaurants, movie theater, bowling alley, spaPros: This hotel is a convenient jumping-off point for outdoor adventures in Red Rock Canyon, and is within walking distance from shops and restaurants in Downtown Summerlin. Plus, the pool is beautiful.Cons: Red Rock Resort is far from the Strip and Downtown Las Vegas. It can also be expensive.Red Rock Resort and Hotel is a true desert escape, located on the western edge of the city near the soaring cliffs of Red Rock Canyon. One could easily spend a day hiking, rock climbing, or mountain biking in the desert and then return to Red Rock for a spa treatment, a margarita by the palm-shaded pool, or fresh pasta from Osteria Fiorella.Conversely, this is also the kind of upscale hotel that makes it easy to spend an entire weekend without leaving the property. It has everything: great room service, cloud-like beds, views of the desert and the Strip, a nice selection of restaurants, and even a bowling alley and movie theater.The pool, in particular, is one of the best in the city and if you're looking for the opposite of a wild Strip pool party, this tranquil oasis is it. Should you feel inclined to wander, shops, restaurants, and even a weekly farmers market are steps away in Downtown Summerlin. COVID-19 procedures are available here. JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort & Spa The JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort & Spa offers a respite from the desert landscape with abundant greenery. Marriott Book JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort & SpaCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: SummerlinTypical starting/peak price: $163/$311Best for: Couples, business travelers, golfersOn-site amenities: Pool, spa, fitness center, golf course, restaurants, business services, meeting spacePros: The Mediterranean-inspired landscaping with trees and waterfalls is beautiful and there is a shuttle to a nearby award-winning golf course.Cons: The on-site Rampart Casino feels notably shabby compared to the high-end feel of the resort.Every time I set foot in the JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort & Spa, it's an immediate escape from the harsh desert landscape. The greenery and water features are abundant, making the resort feel like a haven.I also love the restaurants, especially Jade Asian Kitchen which is great for sushi and cocktails, and Hawthorn Grill, which has an amazing waterside patio shrouded with trees.The rooms are simple and elegant with jetted tubs and large workspace areas, making this a good hotel for business travelers. The concierge can help arrange golf reservations and the surrounding Summerlin area is similarly upscale. The nearby Italian-inspired Tivoli Village offers open-air shopping and dining. Red Rock Canyon is also close. COVID-19 procedures are available here. FAQ: Las Vegas hotels What is the best time of year to visit Las Vegas?The shoulder seasons — fall and spring — bring perfect desert weather and are the best time to visit Las Vegas. Expect pleasant, sunny days with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Of these two seasons, fall tends to be quieter, with spring bringing spring break crowds.Despite the very hot weather, summer is very busy and you may see higher room rates during this time. Winter is the least busy season in Las Vegas (except for New Year's Eve) and it can also be surprisingly chilly, so you might not get that pool day.Which off-Strip neighborhood should I choose?Stay Downtown or near the Strip if you want to still experience the casinos, restaurants, bars, and delightful mayhem that makes the city so special. Or choose Downtown if you want to experience historic Las Vegas, Fremont Street, and go where the locals go. Choose near-Strip if you want access to Las Vegas Boulevard without the noise and traffic.If you are traveling for business or with young children (or are sensitive to loud noise) consider the suburbs of Henderson or Summerlin. Henderson has outdoor shopping malls, big box stores, quiet neighborhoods, and nice city parks where families picnic. Summerlin will speak to you if you're the outdoorsy type, as Red Rock Canyon is just a stone's throw away. What is there to do off-Strip in Las Vegas?There's a whole world outside of the Las Vegas Strip (not to mention a couple of million people who call Clark County home). You can browse the shops at the Downtown Container Park, catch an intimate live concert at an East Fremont Street bar, or check out First Friday in the Arts District.Dine at a neighborhood restaurant that rivals the ones on the Strip and hit the trails at Red Rock Canyon, Mt. Charleston, Lake Mead, or Valley of Fire. From art galleries, museums, boutiques and craft cocktail bars to hiking, rock climbing, and kayaking, there's much to explore in Southern Nevada.Why should I stay off-Strip?If you've visited Las Vegas a million times and only ever experience one street, you owe it yourself to see another part of the city at least once. You might also find lower rates, though not at every property. Don't expect to pay less for a room at Red Rock Casino than you would for a room at a budget Strip property like Excalibur.You may also find fewer crowds, less vehicle traffic, less noise, and less price-gouging when you shop, eat, and drink. Whether it's your first or tenth time to Vegas, if any of that appeals to you, consider going off the beaten path.Staying off Strip also balances the experience of Las Vegas Boulevard.  Hike through the stark, wild beauty of the desert complemented by a fancy dinner at a sleek steakhouse. An intimate cocktail bar in the Arts District can serve as a prelude to a crowded evening at a nightclub. Is it worth staying off-Strip in Las Vegas?You can still find all of the classic Las Vegas amenities you love such as pools and poolside bars, spas, casinos, buffets, and sportsbooks, plus other surprising extras, like movie theaters, bowling alleys, kid-focused amenities, and community events.And if you miss the Strip, it's not hard to get there. You can be as close as a half-mile away if you stay near Strip, or as far as 12-15 miles away if you stay in Henderson or Summerlin.Do off-Strip hotels have resort fees?Sadly, you would be hard-pressed to find a hotel in Las Vegas without a resort fee. Every hotel on this list with the exception of Virgin Hotels Las Vegas charges one. Some properties may waive these fees for special promotions (M Resorts is currently offering a no resort fee stay to locals on staycation), but for the most part, you can expect to shell out an extra $20 to $40 on average per night. What are current Las Vegas COVID-19 travel restrictions and protocols? Las Vegas is open, without restrictions involving capacity limits and large gatherings.However, the State of Nevada has mandated that everyone, including fully vaccinated individuals, wear a mask in public indoor settings, including resorts and casinos, restaurants, bars, showrooms, and meeting spaces. Masks are also required on public transportation.Large indoor events also have masks, testing, and vaccination requirements so check before arriving both with local Las Vegas mandates, the Nevada Health Response updates, as well as your individual hotel and destination. How we selected the best off-Strip hotels in Las Vegas As a Las Vegas local travel writer, I'm personally familiar with every hotel on this list and stand behind all of these hotels. I have either stayed at the hotel or have spent significant time exploring the property and the surrounding neighborhood. Hotels are located in desirable Las Vegas neighborhoods, including near-Strip, Downtown, Summerlin, and Henderson. Each hotel holds a TripAdvisor rating of between 3 to 4.5 (the average rating on this list is 4 out of 5) with a high volume of recent honest, unbiased reviews.Rates range between $30 and $163 to start and do not include resort fees. Las Vegas room rates fluctuate based on the season and major events usually drive up prices. Las Vegas room rates tend to fluctuate wildly. On one night a room might be below a hundred dollars, on another night it might be approaching a thousand. This is why value is so key.Standard hotel rooms at each property are known to be comfortable with classic or unique Vegas views.    The hotel features must-have Vegas amenities, such as a pool, great on-site restaurants and bars, a casino, spa, fitness center, plus entertainment offerings, and events.You don't want to stay in a quiet, spa-like environment if you've come to Vegas to party, and you don't want to stay in the middle of a party if you're traveling with small kids. We've noted who we think would enjoy each hotel, such as solo travelers, groups of friends, couples, families, business travelers, and locals on staycations.The hotel keeps guests safe by instituting COVID-19 policies in accordance with the most recent CDC guidelines. More of the best places to stay in Las Vegas Prayitno/Flickr The best Las Vegas luxury hotels on or near the StripThe best cheap hotels in Las VegasThe most incredible hotel suites in Las Vegas for every budgetThe best Las Vegas Airbnbs Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 21st, 2021

Stocks, Futures, Oil Tumble On Omicron Lockdowns, Manchin Shockwave

Stocks, Futures, Oil Tumble On Omicron Lockdowns, Manchin Shockwave Global stocks and US equity futures are sharply lower to start the otherwise very quiet holiday week, dragged lower by Manchin's shock decision to kill Biden's economic agenda (which Goldman said would cut US Q1 GDP from 3% to 2%), accelerating government measures to counter the fast-spreading omicron variant and fears over the growth outlook amid a tightening Fed. US equity futures tumbled almost 100 points from their Friday close (and more than 200 points from Thursday's all time high before paring some losses buoyed by optimism from news that Moderna’s booster vaccine increases antibodies 37-fold against omicron. Treasury yields also pared a sharp drop as low as 1.35% and the dollar held a jump from Friday, while crude oil slid on worries that mobility curbs to tackle the strain will hurt demand. As of 730am S&P 500 futures were down down 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 -1.3%, and Dow -1.0%. Global stocks have retreated from record highs in recent weeks amid concerns about Covid-19 hurting the economic recovery and as central banks pivot toward fighting inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a faster wind-down of the central bank’s bond-buying program puts it in a position to start lifting interest rates as early as March. “In our view, markets can look through omicron concerns, and the gradual pace of monetary tightening won’t bring the equity rally to an end,” UBS Global Wealth Management wrote in a note. “Overall, the latest news does not change our outlook for equities.” Luke Hickmore, investment director at Standard Life Investments, also recommended buying the dip. “The prospects for growth will improve rapidly from here,” he said. “The market will likely see a recovery in the new year when liquidity returns.” In the weekend's biggest news, senator Joe Manchin blindsided the White House on Sunday by rejecting Biden’s $1.75 trillion tax-and-spending package, prompting a sharply critical statement from the White House which called Manchin’s decision a “sudden and inexplicable reversal.”  Biden and top Democrats must now regroup to see if a scaled-back version remains possible with little more than 10 months before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. As noted late last night, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth for next year after Manchin’s move (more below). On Monday, Chuck Schumer said the Senate will still vote “very early” in 2022 on Biden’s economic agenda, although it was unclear just what the new plan will look like now that Build Back Better is dead. Not helping matters were the latest development in the Omicron front where the biggest European countries are introducing more curbs, with U.K. officials keeping open the possiblity of stronger measures before Christmas and the Netherlands returning to lockdown, even as Biden’s chief medical advisor said further U.S. lockdowns are unlikely. In some "good" news, said a third dose of its Covid-19 vaccine saw a 37-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against omicron. Ironically. While investors remain on edge over the outlook for economic activity, there remains little evidence that the new variant causes illness as severe as the delta variant, especially among those already vaccinated. “The main reason behind the market sell off today is the rejection of Biden’s $2 trillion tax-and-spending package, which will lead to a reduction in U.S. economic growth forecasts,” said Michel Keusch, a portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management. “With trading volumes getting thinner and thinner into the year end, this is the catalyst creating some short-term nervousness.”  Then there are tightening concerns: the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the pace of tapering last week is also adding to investor nerves about the outlook for 2022. And now, without either fiscal or monetary support, economists see a policy-induced slowdown in the economy where Goldman on Sunday cut its real GDP forecast for 2022: 2% in Q1 (vs. 3% prior), 3% in Q2 (vs. 3.5% prior), and 2.75% in Q3 (vs. 3% prior). One place which is convinced the Fed will not meet its targets it the bond market where traders of eurodollar futures price rates much lower than FOMC targets for the end of 2023 and 2024. Finally, as Bloomberg notes, there is also the issue of divergent global monetary policy to contend with, as the People’s Bank of China stepped up easing overnight with the first rate cut in 20 months. Looking at the premarket, travel stocks fell the most with United Airlines down 3.4% leading declines among major U.S. carriers, while a 4% slide in Royal Caribbean Cruises led the fall among cruise operators. Energy and industrial bellwethers also declined, with Chevron, 3M and Caterpillar falling over 2% each. Major U.S. tech and internet stocks slumped hitting shares in most highly valued names, as well as in cyclicals. Apple fell as much as 2.1% premarket while fellow large- cap tech names also drop, with Facebook-owner Meta Platforms down 1.9%, Alphabet -1.2%, Amazon.com -1.7%, Twitter -2.1%, Microsoft -1.6%. Here are some of the other big U.S. movers today: Major U.S. tech and internet stocks drop in premarket trading as risk appetite sours globally amid worries over further pandemic- related restrictions, hitting shares in most highly valued names, as well as in cyclicals. Shares in U.S. renewables firms drop in premarket after U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s surprise rejection of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion package. Moderna (MRNA US) rises 6% in U.S. premarket after the company said that a booster dose of its Covid-19 vaccine increased antibody levels against the omicron variant. Society Pass (SOPA US) surges 22% in premarket after the loyalty platform operator said in a statement it has been added to the Russell 2000 Index. Boston Beer (SAM US) upgraded to hold at Jefferies following pullback of more than 60% in the shares related to “massive” reset in expectations for hard seltzers, removing the only negative rating on the stock. Shares up 0.3% on low volume in premarket. "After battling endless headwinds in recent weeks, markets have finally been knocked over as the rapid spread of Omicron finally reaches panic mode," Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, wrote in a client note. Europe's Stoxx 600 also stumbled, now down about 1.4% after falling as much as 2.6%, weighed down the most by travel and insurance. All sectors are in red. FTSE 100 recovers slightly as energy gets a leg up, but is still off by 1.2%. Dax -2%. Germany’s new coalition government picked Joachim Nagel, a Bank for International Settlements official, as the central bank’s next president. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set for the biggest drop since March, as the spread of the omicron variant and a surprising setback to U.S. President Joe Biden’s economic agenda forced traders to take bets off the table. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank as much as 2%, headed for its lowest close since November 2020, with tech and consumer shares the biggest drags. Relatively thin trading ahead of the year-end exacerbated declines in the region, as investors grapple with fresh outbreaks of Covid-19 and monetary policy tightening globally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 15% from a peak in February, compared with an 18% gain in the S&P 500. “Omicron’s spread over the festive holidays and Manchin” are driving the risk-off mood, said Wai Ho Leong, strategist at Modular Asset Management (Singapore). “But most of all, it is the lack of liquidity in all markets.” India was the worst performer around the region, with its benchmark index poised to enter a correction amid the spread of the omicron variant. Chinese stocks also dropped despite a cut to bank borrowing costs for the first time in 20 months In FX, the dollar reversed gains and was little changed. The pound fell in line with other risk- sensitive currencies as global market sentiment soured; gilts advanced. Hedging the major currencies over the next month comes at a similar cost, yet the pound turns expensive further out as it holds a higher beta on monetary policy divergence. The Australian and New Zealand dollars followed a broader move lower in commodity FX amid a slide in oil and stocks. The yen advanced with Japanese government bonds. The lira tumbled to another record low after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to continue cutting interest rates. In rates, Treasury yields fell by ~3bp in 5-year sector, steepening 5s30s spread by 3bp on the day as long-end yields were little changed; 10-year yields 1bp lower around 1.39%, outperforming bunds and gilts. Treasuries drifted higher Monday as global stocks extended losses. Gains were led by front- and belly of the curve, while eurodollars advanced and the amount of Federal Reserve rate-hike premium for 2024 and 2024 eased. Long-end lagged the move ahead of a 20-year bond auction Tuesday.  Bund and gilt curves are mixed. Italy lags in the peripheral complex, widening ~2bps to Germany. In commodities, Brent crude extends dropped to trade down as much as 5.3%, trading as low as $69.60/bbl before paring some losses, with Brent down 3% to $71 per barrel, and WTI -4% to around the $68-handle. Spot gold drifts below the $1,800-handle. Base metals complex under pressure; LME aluminum and nickel decline the most.  There is nothing on the economic calendar today except that Nov. Leading Index, which is estimated to print at  0.9%. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 4,535.75 MXAP down 1.8% to 187.95 MXAPJ down 1.8% to 607.98 Nikkei down 2.1% to 27,937.81 Topix down 2.2% to 1,941.33 Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 22,744.86 Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,593.60 Sensex down 2.0% to 55,848.23 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,292.16 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,963.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.2% to 463.29 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.40% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1259 Brent Futures down 3.9% to $70.67/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,800.19 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.61 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg President Joe Biden faces the unexpected task of quickly rewriting his policy agenda in a crucial election year after a key Senate Democrat abruptly rejected his signature $1.75 trillion economic plan Germany’s new coalition government picked Joachim Nagel, a former Bundesbank senior official, as the central bank’s next chief, according to a person with knowledge of the matter The ECB will not raise interest rates in 2022 if inflation behaves as expected, governing council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos told Expansion newspaper in an interview Europe’s biggest countries are introducing more curbs to fight a surge in Covid-19 infections, from another lockdown in the Netherlands to stricter travel restrictions at the height of the holiday period Chinese property stocks tumbled close to a fresh five-year low after a series of asset sales underscored concern that equity investors will bear the brunt of losses as developers offload projects to repay debt Chinese banks lowered borrowing costs for the first time in 20 months, foreshadowing more monetary support to an economy showing strain from a property slump, weak private consumption and sporadic virus outbreaks A more detail look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities traded mostly lower following the volatile session on Wall Street on Friday, which saw the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all posting varying degrees of losses, whilst the Russell 2000 outperformed with decent gains. Overnight, US equity futures opened with a mild upside bias, albeit the optimism faded in early trade as risk aversion materialised, with the ES Mar 2022 contract falling below its 50 DMA (4,596) whilst the NQ and RTY saw losses of over 1% apiece. Sentiment was hit by the slew of concerning COVID headlines over the weekend, whilst Friday saw further hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials - with Fed’s Waller suggesting the whole point of accelerating the bond taper was to make the March Fed meeting a live meeting for the first hike, and under his base case March is very likely for lift-off, although it could be pushed back to May. The ASX 200 (-0.3%) was pressured by some large-cap miners and banks, whilst the Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) and KOSPI (-1.8%) conformed to the downbeat tone, with upside in the former also capped by recent JPY strength. The Hang Seng (-1.9%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.1%) initially saw shallower losses after the PBoC opted to cut the 1yr Loan Prime Rate by 5bps, whilst the 5yr rate was maintained, although the property sector faced more woes after S&P downgraded Evergrande to Selective Default, whilst Kaisa shares slumped after trade resumed following a two-week hiatus, with the Co. in discussions regarding a debt restructuring plan. The Hang Seng dipped below 23,000 for the first time since May 2020. Elsewhere, US 10yr futures continued edging higher as APAC risk aversion supported the haven, whilst Goldman Sachs also cut its US real GDP Growth forecasts on the Build Back Better blockade. Top Asian News Coal India Defends Quality Level of Shipments After Complaints Hong Kong Eyes New Security Law After Electing Loyalist Council Asian Stocks Drop to Lowest in 13 Months on Virus Woes, Manchin Best Way for China to Lower Market Rates is to Sell Yuan: Nomura European bourses commenced the week on the backfoot, continuing the broad pressure seen in APAC trade, as focus is firmly fixed on the Omicron variant. The downside in APAC hours was also a feature of the choppy trade in the US on Friday, and amid non-COVID catalysts such as US Senator Manchin presenting a stumbling block to BBB which effectively ends the chances it can be passed this year, while hawkish central banks is also a theme traders are cognizant of for next year. Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%, benchmarks are lower across the board as further COVID-19 restrictions are imposed/touted; thus far, the most stringent has seen the Netherlands return to lockdowns, while the likes of the UK and Germany are mulling measures. Vaccine producer Moderna (+5.5% in premarket trade) released preliminary booster data vs Omicron, which saw a modest paring of the risk-off conditions; the vaccine boosts neutralising antibody levels by 37-fold vs pre-boost levels. All sectors remain in the red however, with underperformance in those most exposed to COVID restrictions, such as Travel & Leisure, Oil & Gas and Autos. Individual movers were predominantly dictated by the broader price action; however, THG (+12.5%) is the morning’s outperformer following reports that a notable short on the name has removed its position. Meanwhile, US futures are softer across the board (ES -1.3%) ahead of a very sparse docket where focus will, as it is in European hours, centre around the fiscal narrative and COVID. On the latter, President Biden is due to speak on the situation on Tuesday, calling for individuals to get vaccinated. Top European News Johnson Appoints Truss to Key Brexit Role After Torrid Week Germany Picks Bundesbank Veteran Nagel as Central Bank Chief Czech Billionaire Family Faces Final Showdown Over Bank Merger Flashpoints That May Heal or Deepen the Lira’s Pain in 2022 In FX, the Dollar is mixed across the board, but retaining an upward bias overall amidst greater gains vs high beta, activity and cyclical currencies compared to losses against safer havens as broad risk sentiment sours on a number of factors, but mainly COVID-19. Hence, the index is holding quite firmly above 96.500 within a 96.504-680 range even though US Treasury yields are soft and the curve is marginally flatter, with traction or the Greenback coming via hawkish comments in wake of last week’s FOMC from Fed’s Waller who would not object to lifting rates as soon as tapering is done next March. Ahead, a very sparse Monday agenda only comprises November’s leading index. JPY/EUR/CHF/XAU - As noted above, risk-off positioning due to the ongoing spread of Omicron has prompted demand for the Yen, the Euro, with added momentum from bullish Eur/Gbp cross flows, plus the Franc and Gold to lesser extents. Usd/Jpy is tethered around 113.50 in response, though unhindered by imposing option expiries in contrast to last Friday and the headline pair capped by technical resistance in the form of 21 and 50 DMAs that come in at 113.77 and 113.83 respectively today. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd is back above 1.1250 amidst mixed ECB vibes as de Cos underscores guidance for no hikes in 2022, but sources say that GC hawks wanted explicit recognition of upside inflation risks and were shouted down by chief economist Lane. However, Eur/Gbp has bounced even more firmly from sub-0.8500 lows on what looks like a combination of early year end demand or RHS orders and Pound underperformance on pandemic, political and Brexit-related factors. Elsewhere, Usd/Chf is hovering mostly sub-0.9250 and Eur/Chf is pivoting 1.0400 with latest weekly Swiss sight deposits showing no sign of intervention and Gold is rotating around Usd 1800/oz after a false upside breach of Usd 1810, but not quite enough follow-through buying to scale another upside target circa Usd 1815. GBP/AUD/NZD/CAD - The major fall guys, as Sterling loses 1.3200+ status yet again on all the aforementioned negatives, and also feels some contagion from weakness in Brent, while the Aussie is straddling 0.7100, the Kiwi is trying to keep its head above 0.6700 and the Loonie contain declines through 1.2900 alongside the latest retracement in WTI. In commodities, WTI and Brent are also risk-off, moving in tandem with the equity action, on the COVID-19 narrative and implementation/prospect of further restrictions hitting the demand-side of the equation. WTI relinquishes USD 67.00/bbl and Brent gave up the USD 70.00/bbl level. In fitting the broader market move, some easing of the initial downside was seen post-Moderna’s update. Elsewhere, in crude specifics, Libya’s NOC confirmed reports that the Petroleum Facilities Guard was blocking several fields in the region; some suggest production of oil has dropped to 950k BPD due to losses of production at El Sharara field (estimated at 280k BPD). Elsewhere, OPEC+ compliance has reportedly increased marginally in November, in-fitting with the assessments in earlier sourced reports. In metals, spot gold and silver are contained on the session with little evidence of risk-off making its self-known at this point in time, with the yellow metal pivoting USD 1800/oz. Elsewhere, copper is impacted on the risk tone but offset somewhat by Chile’s President-elect Boric saying he will oppose the Dominga copper-iron mine project. US Event Calendar 10am: Nov. Leading Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we arrive at the final week before Christmas, there’s plenty of newsflow from the weekend for markets to digest this morning. In particular, there was the announcement from the US that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia wouldn’t be able to support the Build Back Better Bill, which has been the subject of intense negotiations over recent weeks and marks a significant blow for President Biden’s economic agenda. Meanwhile on the Covid front, there was a further ratcheting up of concerns about the Omicron variant, with the Netherlands becoming the latest European country to go back into lockdown as of yesterday, as cases continue to spread elsewhere. But otherwise, the events calendar is looking fairly quiet for now in this holiday-shortened week, with just a few lower-tier data releases and the occasional central bank speaker. We’ll start with Omicron, since that remains one of the biggest issues for markets right now and has significantly clouded the outlook moving into year-end. In a nutshell, the news over the weekend from Europe has only pointed in the direction of further restrictions across multiple countries, with the Netherlands being the most severe as a full lockdown was announced by the Prime Minister on Saturday that leaves just supermarkets and essential shops open, with even schools shut. When it comes to socialising, people will not be allowed to receive more than 2 visitors aged 13 and over per day, although over 24-26 December, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, this will be raised to 4 people. Elsewhere in Europe there was a similar pattern towards tougher measures, with the Irish PM announcing on Friday evening that there would be an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants and theatres, among others, which would last from today until January 30. Over in Spain, Prime Minister Sánchez said in a televised address yesterday that he’d be meeting with regional leaders virtually on Wednesday to look at measures for the weeks ahead. In Italy, it’s been widely reported that the government is looking at further measures to contain the spread as well, and they’re set to meet on Thursday to discuss these, whilst here in the UK, Health Secretary Javid was not ruling out further restrictions this side of Christmas. Separately in the US, President Biden is set to deliver a speech tomorrow about Covid and the steps that the administration will be taking, with Press Secretary Jen Psaki tweeting that Biden would also be “issuing a stark warning of what the winter will look like for Americans that choose to remain unvaccinated.” For those after a bit more optimism ahead of Christmas, then a couple of DB research notes out on Friday about the new variant will definitely be of interest. The first by FX Strategist Shreyas Gopal (link here) looks at London, which is the epicentre of Omicron infections in the UK, and tracks cases there against those in the South African province of Gauteng a couple of weeks back. The good news is that if the relationship is similar, then that does suggest a peak in cases soon. The other note comes from our head of rates research Francis Yared (link here) who shows that although deaths are starting to increase in South Africa, they’re currently on a much lower trajectory relative to cases compared to previous waves. An important question for markets is whether these patterns from South Africa can be extrapolated over to the advanced economies, which have much higher vaccination rates on the one hand, but also much older populations on the other, so there are factors that could push in either direction. Keep an eye out on these leading indicators from South Africa, as well as London, since they’ll have implications for what could occur in the coming weeks elsewhere. Away from Covid, the other main piece of news over the weekend came from the US, where the moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin said that he couldn’t support the Build Back Better package that forms a key part of President Biden’s economic agenda, with much of his proposals on social programs and climate change. The news broke in an interview from Manchin on Fox News Sunday, when Manchin said “I can’t get there” when it comes to supporting the package, and follows direct negotiations that he’d been having with the president. Manchin’s support is crucial for the bill’s passage, since the Senate is split 50-50 between the Democrats and Republicans, with the Democrats having control only by virtue of Vice President Harris’ casting vote. So with zero Republican support for the package, that required every single Democratic senator on board with the proposals, giving Manchin enormous influence. A statement from White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in response to Manchin did not sound impressed, saying that his comments “are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.” It went on to say that “we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.” Nevertheless, Manchin’s own written statement wasn’t using the language of compromise, saying that his “Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face.” So the implication from Manchin is that Build Back Better won’t be happening this side of the mid-terms in its current form, and would require a fundamental rethink and meaningful slimming down were it to have any chance of passing. Those twin factors of further Omicron restrictions and Manchin’s announcement have weighed heavily on Asian equities overnight, with the Nikkei (-2.17%), KOSPI (-1.66%), Hang Seng (-1.44%), CSI (-0.98%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.75%) all moving lower. In India, the benchmark NIFTY is also down 10% from its peak in October, putting the index in correction territory. However, we did get a policy easing in China, with banks lowering the 1yr prime rate by -5bps to 3.8%. That move came alongside separate remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, who said it was too early to think about policy normalisation, and that discussion should take place once inflation is closer to the 2% target. European and US equities are set to follow Asia lower later on, with futures on both the S&P 500 (-0.97%) and the DAX (-1.63%) both pointing lower this morning. And oil prices been struggling overnight as well in light of the recent virus news, with Brent Crude down -3.02% to $71.30/bbl at time of writing. Recapping last week now, and the main events were the array of central bank meetings ahead of the holidays. In the US, the Fed doubled the pace of their tapering as expected, which would bring net asset purchases to an end in mid-March, and the median dot now expects three rate hikes in 2022. By the close on Friday, Fed funds futures were pricing in a 55% chance of an initial hike by the March meeting, and an 87% chance of one by the May meeting. The ECB was then up next, and started a wind down of net PEPP purchases that are also set to finish in March next year. The ECB is cushioning the landing though, having moved to increase APP purchases until October next year after PEPP ends, following which they’ll maintain a pace of €20bn a month until shortly before liftoff. The ECB maintained some policy optionality through flexibility on PEPP reinvestments, which our Europe economists read as a commitment to smoothing the transmission of monetary policy. In the UK, the BoE hiked Bank Rate by +15bps to 0.25%. The MPC noted the decision was finely balanced due to Covid uncertainty, but the vote was still 8-1 in favour of a hike. Over in Japan, the BoJ rounded out the major DM central bank meetings, keeping rates unchanged and announcing a slow reduction in corporate debt holdings. At the same time, they extended a special covid loans program targeted at small and medium-sized firms to September 2022. When all was said and done, many sovereign bond yields actually ended the week lower, even with the hawkish pivot from the various central banks. 10yr yields on Treasuries (-8.2bps) and bunds (-3.1bps) both declined, although those on gilts did post a small +1.7bps gain over the week. Meanwhile growing Covid pessimism served to dampen risk appetite and send global equity indices lower last week. By Friday the S&P 500 (-1.94%) had fallen for the 3rd week out of the last 4, hampered by an underperformance from tech stocks that saw the NASDAQ (-2.95%) and the FANG+ index (-4.53%) both lose significant ground. Over in Europe the moves were smaller, albeit still lower, and the STOXX 600 ended the week -0.35%.   Tyler Durden Mon, 12/20/2021 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 20th, 2021

Futures Drift Lower In Illiquid Session As Virus Fears Resurface

Futures Drift Lower In Illiquid Session As Virus Fears Resurface After three days of torrid gains, US futures and European markets fell as concerns about economic risks from restrictions to control the new variant outweighed optimism about the efficacy of vaccines after a study from Japan found that the omicron variant is 4.2 times more transmissible (as largely expected) in its early stage than delta. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropped around -0.4% as traders awaited earnings from Broadcom, Oracle and Costco after the market close and tomorrow's key CPI print, while European equities drifted lower in quiet trade with little fresh news flow to drive price action. Uncertainty about monetary policy could keep stocks “significantly volatile,” according to Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades in London. “Investors are likely to remain cautious and keep on monitoring the macro outlook, especially today’s U.S. initial jobless claims, in order to gather more clues on what and when could be the Fed’s next move,” said Veyret. In Asia, China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. officially defaulted on their dollar debt, while the People’s Bank of China raised its foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for a second time this year after the yuan climbed to the highest since 2018. Among individual moves, CVS Health Corp. jumped in pre-market trading after saying it would buy back shares and raise dividends. Drugmakers including Pfizer rose, while travel companies and airlines declined. European stocks erased gains of as much as 0.3% with the Stoxx 600 trading -0.1% in the red as investors weigh new economic restrictions prompted by the omicron variant against earlier optimism. The real estate subgroup was best performer, up 0.7%; energy company shares lead declines with a drop of 1.2%. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.25%, reversing a modest push into the green at the open. Other cash indexes trade either side of flat. Oil & gas and retail names are the weakest sectors. UniCredit SpA rose after saying it will return at least 16 billion euros ($18.1 billion) to shareholders by 2024. Meanwhile, Electricite de France SA fell with the government considering a cap on regulated power tariffs to help curb soaring electricity prices. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: LPP shares rose as much as 12% after its 3Q earnings beat expectations. The figures confirm a rebound of sales in traditional stores and stronger margins, according to analysts. UniCredit shares gain as much as 8.4%, the most since November 2020, after the Italian lender unveiled its new strategic plan that includes the distribution of at least EU16b to shareholders by 2024. Société Marseillaise du Tunnel Prado Carénage (SMTPC) shares rise as much as 5.5% after Vinci Concessions and Eiffage said they reached a pact to act in concert for a tender offer at EU27/share. Zur Rose drops as much as 7.3% in Zurich after an offering of 650,000 shares priced at CHF290 apiece, representing a 12% discount to the last close. Neste Oyj shares slid as much as 5.7% as investors digested the unexpected resignation of Chief Executive Officer Peter Vanacker from the helm of the world’s biggest maker of renewable diesel. FirstGroup shares fall as much as 5.9% after 1H results, with Chairman David Martin saying the U.K.’s work-from- home edict will “clearly have an impact” on commuter trips. There are potential downside risks to estimates in the short term, if Covid restrictions tighten, according to Liberum (buy). Dr. Martens released solid 1H results, but there’s “nothing material to flag” and unlikely to be upgrades to FY Ebitda estimates, Morgan Stanley says in a note. Shares drop as much as 5.2% after initially gaining 8.9%. Electricite de France shares fall as much as 5.1% after Le Figaro said the French government is considering taking additional steps to keep electricity prices from rising too much amid a spike in energy costs. The global equity rally will be tested as traders expect volatility until there’s more clarity on omicron’s threat to the economy, and ahead of U.S. consumer inflation numbers this week and a Federal Reserve meeting next week that may provide clues on the pace of tapering and interest rate increases. “We are looking to potentially have a rise in volatility even if the market continues higher around those events next week,” said Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital portfolio strategist, on Bloomberg Television. “Many of the catalysts that gave us this boom out of Covid are slowing. And then you have the Fed potentially tapering into a decelerating economy.” Geopolitical tensions are also adding to investor concerns. Germany’s new foreign minister Annalena Baerbock doubled down on warnings from western politicians to Russia over Ukraine, saying that Moscow would pay a high price if it went ahead with an invasion of its neighbor. Separately, the U.S. said it will place SenseTime Group Inc. on an investment blacklist Friday, accusing the artificial intelligence startup of enabling human rights abuses. That’s after the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation designed to punish China for its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the country’s Xinjiang province. Asian stocks rose for a third day as investors reassessed concerns over the new virus strain and factored in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will accelerate the end of its quantitative easing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added as much as 0.5%, extending its advance since Tuesday to almost 3%. Information technology and communication services were the sectors providing the biggest support to the climb, with benchmarks in China and Hong Kong among the region’s best performers. The CSI 300 Index gained 1.7% as consumer stocks rallied.   “The market had been initially wary of the Fed’s hawkish tilt in their stance, and a change in how they view inflation, but investors don’t seem too worried about it anymore,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a fund manager at Saison Asset Management Co. “But this isn’t a theme that’s going away in the short term.”  Asia’s benchmark headed for its highest since Nov. 25, set to erase losses since the omicron variant was detected during the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays, but still in negative territory for 2021. The S&P 500 Index is up 25% this year, after gaining Wednesday on announcements by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE that early lab studies showed a third dose of their Covid-19 vaccine neutralizes the omicron variant. “Funds are flowing into growth stocks with high estimated profit growth and ROE levels, a continuation of moves seen from yesterday,” said Takashi Ito, an equity market strategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo. “But there could be some profit taking after the market rose for a few consecutive sessions.” Japanese stocks fell, cooling off after a two-day rally as investors weighed the potential impact of the omicron variant on the global economy. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.6%. Fanuc and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 0.5% loss in the Nikkei 225 Indian stocks ended higher, after swinging between gains and losses several times through the session, as traders shifted their focus to key economic data globally and at home in the days ahead.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to close at 58,807.13 in Mumbai, after falling as much as 0.5% earlier in the day. The gauge has gained 3.6% in the last three sessions, its biggest three-day advance in over a seven-month period, on optimism the economic recovery will be resilient despite the spread of the new Covid variant, with the RBI continuing its policy support intact.  The NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by similar magnitude on Thursday. Reliance Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the Sensex gain, rising 1.6%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, equal number of stocks rose and fell. Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of capital goods companies. The Reserve Bank of India kept borrowing costs at a record-low on Wednesday and voted 5-1 to retain its accommodative policy stance for as long as is necessary, reflecting its bias to support economic growth. The RBI expects the economy to expand 9.5% expansion in the year ending March, one of the fastest paces among the major growing world economies.  Markets’ focus will now shift to U.S. inflation data this week and a Federal Reserve meeting next week, which may provide clues on the pace of tapering and policy tightening. India will release its factory output data on Friday and consumer-price inflation on Monday.  “All eyes will be on crucial macro data (CPI & IIP) outcome which may further provide some direction to the markets,” Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd., wrote in a note. “The focus will remain on the global cues and updates regarding the new variant. We reiterate our cautious yet positive stance on the markets and suggest traders to focus on managing risk.” Australian stocks edged lower as miners, consumer shares retreated. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3% to close at 7,384.50, snapping a four-day winning streak. Miners and consumer discretionary shares contributed the most to the benchmark’s decline. Redbubble was the worst performer, dropping the most since Oct. 14. Sydney Airport was among the top performers after regulators cleared a proposed takeover of the company. The stock also joined a global rally in travel shares after Pfizer and BioNTech said initial lab studies show a third dose of their Covid-19 vaccine may be effective at neutralizing the omicron variant. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 12,771.83 In rates, Treasury yields were mostly lower, led by the long end of the curve, while underperforming German bunds. 10Y TSY yields are lower by ~2bp at 1.4973%, trailing declines of 3bp-5bp for most European 10-year yields but remaining above 200-DMA, which it closed above Wednesday for first time since Nov. 29. Treasury futures trade near session highs, with cash yields lower by 3bp-4bp from the 5-year sector to the long end, inside Wednesday’s bear-steepening ranges. European bond markets lead the move, led by Ireland which cut 2022 issuance plans, as virus concerns weighed on most equity markets. U.S. auction cycle concludes with $22b 30-year reopening at 1pm ET, following two Fed purchase operations. Wednesday’s 10Y reopening auction drew 1.518%, tailing by about 0.4bp; Tuesday’s 3Y, which drew 1.000%, also trades at a profit, yielding 0.989% The WI 30Y yield 1.865% is below auction stops since January as sector has benefited from expectations that Fed rate increases beginning next year may strain the economy, as well as from strong equity-market performance driving increased allocation to bonds In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index resumed its ascent, climbing 0.2% as the dollar advanced versus all Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. TRY and ZAR are the weakest in EMFX.  The euro retreated, nearing the $1.13 handle and after touching a one-week high yesterday. One-week volatility for euro and sterling has risen to multi-month highs, with meetings by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in focus. The British pound fell as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pushed back its forecast for a U.K. rate hike and business groups called for government support after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced restrictions to curb the spread of the variant, which Bloomberg Economics estimates could cost the economy as much as 2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) a month. A study found omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than the delta variant in its early stages.   The pound hovered near its lowest level in more than a year against the dollar as fresh coronavirus restrictions weighed on the U.K.’s economic outlook. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next Thursday continue to wane, with markets pricing less than six basis points of hikes. Goldman pushed back its forecast for a U.K. rate hike and business groups called for government support after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced restrictions to curb the spread of the variant, which Bloomberg Economics estimates could cost the economy as much as 2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) a month. A study found omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than the delta variant in its early stages. Norway’s krone led losses among G-10 currencies as it snapped a three-day rally that had taken it to an almost three-week high against the greenback. In commodities, Crude futures drift lower. WTI slips back near $72 having stalled near $73 during Asian trade. Brent dips 0.5%, finding support just above $75. Spot gold trades flat near $1,782/oz Looking at the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, with data releases including the US weekly initial jobless claims, as well as the German trade balance for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,691.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 478.52 MXAP up 0.4% to 195.63 MXAPJ up 0.7% to 638.47 Nikkei down 0.5% to 28,725.47 Topix down 0.6% to 1,990.79 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 24,254.86 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,673.04 Sensex up 0.3% to 58,839.03 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,384.46 Kospi up 0.9% to 3,029.57 Brent Futures down 0.3% to $75.58/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,783.15 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 96.09 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.34% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1318 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg European Central Bank governors are to discuss a temporary increase in the Asset Purchase Program with limits on the size and time of the commitment at a Dec. 16 meeting, Reuters reports, citing six people familiar with the matter Hungary raised interest rates for a fifth time in less than a month as policy makers try to rein in the fastest inflation in 14 years. The central bank hiked the one-week deposit rate by 20 basis points on Thursday to 3.3%, broadly matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey China’s central bank has signaled a limit to its tolerance for the yuan’s recent advance by setting its reference rate at a weaker-than-expected level China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings were downgraded to restricted default by Fitch Ratings, which cited missed dollar bond interest payments in Evergrande’s case and failure to repay a $400 million dollar bond in Kaisa’s. Evergrande Group’s inability to meet its obligations will be dealt with in a market-oriented way, the head of the nation’s central bank said PBOC is exploring interlinking the e-CNY, as the digital yuan is known, system into the Faster Payment System in Hong Kong, says Mu Changchun, head of the Chinese central bank’s Digital Currency Institute Money managers have shown some tentative signs that they may be willing to start buying more Chinese dollar bonds again, after demand for the securities plunged to a 27-month low in November Greece plans to early repay the total amount of IMF’s bailout loan to the country in the first quarter of 2022, Finance Minister Christos Staikouras says in a Parapolitika radio interview The omicron variant of Covid-19 is 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than delta, according to a study by a Japanese scientist who advises the country’s health ministry, a finding likely to confirm fears about the new strain’s contagiousness Pfizer will have data telling how well its vaccine prevents infections with the omicron variant before the end of the year A detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk Asian equity markets eventually traded mixed as the early tailwinds from the US gradually waned despite the recent encouragement on the vaccine front. All major US indices were underpinned in which the S&P 500 reclaimed the 4,700 level and approached closer to its ATHs, while Apple extended on record levels and moved closer to USD 3tln valuation. The ASX 200 (-0.3%) was initially kept afloat by resilience in defensives, although upside was restricted amid weakness in tech alongside concerns of a further deterioration in ties with China after Australia’s decision to boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics. The Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was rangebound with the Japanese benchmark stalled by resistance ahead of the 29k level, although the downside was cushioned by recent currency weakness and a modest improvement in the Business Survey Index. The Hang Seng (+1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) outperformed after China’s NDRC pledged support measures to boost consumption in rural areas and with some chatter regarding the possibility of another RRR cut in Q1 next year according SGH Macro citing a senior Chinese official. Furthermore, participants digested mixed inflation data from China including firmer than expected factory gate prices. CPI Y/Y was softer than forecast but it still registered the fastest pace of increase since August last year. Finally, 10yr JGBs briefly declined below the 152.00 level following the bear steepening stateside in which T-notes tested 130.00 to the downside and following a somewhat tepid US 10yr offering in which the b/c increased from prior but remained short of the six-auction average, while the results of the 5yr JGB auction were mixed and failed to spur prices with higher accepted prices offset by a weaker b/c. Top Asian News Evergrande Declared in Default as Massive Restructuring Looms China Dollar Junk Bonds Up After Fitch Move on Kaisa, Evergrande Gold Steady as Traders Assess Virus Risk Before Inflation Data China’s Credit Growth Rebounds After Slowing for Almost a Year Stocks in Europe trade have drifted lower in recent trade, giving up the modest gains seen at the open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, Stoxx 600 -0.2%), and following the mixed lead from APAC and amidst a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts. US equity futures are also subdued, with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the ES (-0.3%), NQ (-0.4%), YM (-0.3%) alongside some mild underperformance in the RTY (-0.6%). Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s US CPI metrics, but more importantly, are gearing up for next week’s blockbuster FOMC confab. Desks have attributed this week’s rebound to several factors working in unison, including a milder Omicron variant (thus far), Chinese policy easing, FOMO, buybacks/upbeat corporate commentary alongside the widely telegraphed hawkish Fed pivot. On the last note, it’s also worth keeping in mind that the rotating voters next year on the FOMC will be more hawkish with the addition of George, Mester and Bullard as voters, albeit some empty spots remain – namely Brainard’s spot as she takes over the Vice-Chair position. Back to Europe, sectors are mostly in the green but portray a defensive bias – with Healthcare, Telecoms, Food & Beverages and Personal & Household Goods at the top of the bunch, whilst Oil & Gas, Retail and Travel & Leisure resides on the other end of the spectrum. In terms of individual moves, UniCredit (+7.8%) shot up to the top of the Stoxx 600 after unveiling its 2024 targets – with the Co. looking to return at least EUR 16bln via dividend and buybacks between 2021-24. Sticking with banks, Deutsche Bank (-2.1%) is pressured after the US DoJ reportedly told Deutsche Bank it may have violated a criminal settlement, due to failures in alerting authorities about internal complaints at its asset management unit, according to sources. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (+1.0%) is supported as its long-acting antibody combination received emergency use authorisation in the US for COVID-19 prevention in some individuals. Finally, Rolls-Royce (-3.7%) slipped despite an overall positive trading update. Top European News Rolls-Royce Sinks as Omicron Clouds Outlook for 2022 Comeback Harbour Energy Plans Dividend But Pushes Back Tolmount Again Toxic U.K. Tory Press Is Flashing Warning Sign for Boris Johnson Credit Suisse Chairman Horta-Osorio Broke Quarantine Rules In FX, the Greenback remains rangy amidst undulating US Treasury yields and a fluid flow of Omicron related headlines that are filling the void until this week’s main macro release arrives tomorrow in the form of CPI data. However, the index is drifting down in almost ever decreasing circles having retreated a bit further from peaks to a marginally deeper sub-96.000 trough on Wednesday, at 95.848, and forming a fractionally firmer base currently to stay within contact of the psychological level within a narrow 96.154-95.941 band, thus far. Ahead, latest jobless claims updates and the last refunding leg comprising Usd 22 bn long bonds after a reasonable 10 year outing, overall. CHF/EUR/CAD - No obvious reaction to Swiss SECO forecasts even though supply bottlenecks and stricter COVID-19 measures are putting a strain on the economy internationally in winter 2021/22, according to the Government affiliated body. Similarly, ECB sources reporting that views on the GC are converging on a limited, temporary increase of the APP at December’s policy meeting, via an envelope or time specified increase with more frequent reviews, hardly impacted the Euro, as Eur/Usd remained towards the bottom of a 1.1346-16 range and Usd/Chf continued to straddle 0.9200, albeit mostly on the weaker side. Meanwhile, the Loonie has also slipped to the back of the major ranks following yesterday’s largely non BoC event against the backdrop of softer crude prices and an indifferent risk tone, with Usd/Cad hovering mainly above 1.2650 between 1.2645-80 parameters. JPY/GBP/NZD/AUD - All sticking to tight confines against their US peer, as the Yen rotates around 113.50 again and Pound pivots 1.3200 in limbo awaiting top tier UK data on Friday that might shed more light on what is gearing up to be another tight BoE rate call next week. Moreover, Usd/Jpy looks pretty well and heavily flanked by option expiry interest either side and in between its 113.81-35 extremes given large amounts running off at the NY cut - see 6.59GMT post on the Headline Feed for full details. Elsewhere, the pendulum has swung down under in favour of the hitherto underperforming Kiwi, as Nzd/Usd popped over 0.6800 and Aud/Nzd stalled ahead of 1.0550 alongside a pull back in Aud/Usd from 0.7185+ at best to test support into 0.7150 in wake of comments by RBA’s Harker and the RBNZ rebalancing its TWI. In short, the former said Australia’s economy can run hot while dodging the runaway inflation that’s plaguing much of the world, signaling monetary policy will stay ultra-loose for some time yet, while the latter culminated in a bigger Cny contribution at 27% from 23.5%. SCANDI/EM - Another day and more appreciation for the Cnh and Cny, at least in early hours, with validation via the PBoC setting a sub-6.3500 midpoint fix for the onshore Yuan vs Buck. However, the offshore then re-weakened past 6.3500 per Dollar after the Chinese central bank opted to raise the FX RRR by 2ppts - effective 15th Dec. Meanwhile, the Nok gives back after midweek gains as Brent slips with WTI to the detriment of the Rub and Mxn as well. Conversely, the Huf has a further 20 bp 1 week repo hike from the NBH to lean on and the Brl got a boost from 150 bp tightening on top of the BCB signalling the same again when COPOM delivers its next SELIC rate call. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have drifted lower from their best levels printed overnight, which saw WTI Jan briefly mount USD 73.00/bbl and Brent Feb eclipse 76.50/bbl. The complex was unfazed by WSJ source reports suggesting the Biden administration is said to be moving to tighten enforcement of sanctions against Iran, whilst US officials say if there is no progress in the nuclear talks. This comes ahead of the resumption of nuclear talks today, albeit the US delegation will only travel to Vienne over the weekend. With the likelihood of an imminent deal somewhat slim, participants will be eyeing any further deterioration in relations alongside additional demand/sanctions. Aside from that, price action will likely be dictated by the overall market tone in the absence of macro catalysts. Elsewhere, reports suggested the Marathon pipeline has been shut due to a crude oil leak estimated to be around 10 barrels from the 20-inch diameter Illinois pipeline, but again the headlines failed to spur the oil complex. Over to metals, spot gold trades sideways and remains under that cluster of DMAs which today sees the 100 at 1,790/oz, 200 and 1,792.50/oz and 50 and 1,795/oz. LME copper meanwhile has been drifting lower since the end of APAC trade, but the contract remains north of USD 9,500/t. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 222,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.91m, prior 1.96m 9:45am: Dec. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 51.0 10am: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1% 12pm: 3Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5.85t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap On the theme of advertising, here’s a final reminder about our special monthly survey for 2022, which will be closing today at 1pm London time. We ask about rates, equities, and the path of Covid-19 in 2022, amongst other things, and also return to a festive question we asked in 2019, namely your favourite ever Christmas songs. The link is here and it’s your last chance to complete. All help filling in very much appreciated. Following the strongest 2-day equity performance so far this year, yesterday saw the rally begin to peter out amidst growing concern that another round of restrictions over the coming weeks could set back the economic recovery. Ultimately the issue from a health perspective is that even if Omicron does prove to be less severe, which the initial indications so far have pointed to, a rise in transmissibility could offset that, and ultimately mean that more people are in hospital as a much bigger number of people would actually get Covid-19, even if a lower proportion of them are severely affected. We’ll start with the good news, and one new piece of information yesterday was that Pfizer and BioNTech announced the results from an initial study showing that three doses of their vaccine neutralised the Omicron variant of Covid-19. President Biden tweeted that the new data was “encouraging” and said it reinforced the point that boosters offer the highest protection, whilst Pfizer’s chief executive said that the final verdict would be the real-world efficacy data, which they expect to see toward the end of this year. We also had an update from the EU’s ECDC, who said that of the 337 Omicron cases reported in the EU/EEA so far, all of them were either asymptomatic or mild where severity was available, and that no deaths had yet been reported. Obviously, these sample sizes aren’t big enough to come to concrete conclusions yet, but if things continue this way that’s clearly a promising sign. On the other hand, the spread of infections has continued in South Africa, and the country reported 19,482 cases, which is the highest number since Omicron was first reported. That comes as a study from a Japanese scientist advising the health ministry in Japan said that Omicron was 4.2 times more transmissible than delta in its early stage. That hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet but would certainly back up all the other indications that this is a much more transmissible variant than seen before. These growing warning signs have led governments to keep toughening up restrictions, and here in the UK, the government announced they’d be moving to “Plan B” in England, which will see the reintroduction of guidance to work from home from Monday, and an extension of face masks to most public indoor venues. They will also be making Covid-19 passes mandatory for nightclubs and venues with large crowds, though a negative test will also be sufficient. That comes as cases have continued to rise, with the 7-day average now above 48,000 and at its highest level since January. Separately in Denmark, the government said that schools would close early for the Christmas break, amongst other restrictions. Equities struggled against this backdrop, with Europe’s STOXX 600 down -0.59%, although the S&P 500 managed to pare back its earlier losses to eke out a +0.31% gain. Cyclicals underperformed, but we did see volatility continue to subside, with the VIX down to its lowest closing level since Omicron emerged, at 19.9pts. In addition, there was an outperformance from tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (+0.64%) and the FANG+ index (+0.62%) seeing solid gains. The increasing risk-off tone didn’t bother oil prices either, with Brent crude (+0.50%) and WTI (+0.43%) continuing their run of gains this week, including further gains overnight, whilst European natural gas futures (+5.86%) closed above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time in nearly 2 months. Over in sovereign bond markets, yields moved higher on both sides of the Atlantic for the most part, with those on 10yr Treasuries up +4.8bps to 1.52%, though this morning they’re down by -1.2bps. That’s the first time they’ve closed back above 1.5% since the session just before Thanksgiving, ahead of the news emerging about the Omicron variant. In Europe, there was an even bigger sell-off, with yields on 10yr bunds (+6.3bps), OATs (+6.9bps) and BTPs (+10.4bps) all moving higher, alongside a further widening in peripheral spreads. This more mixed performance has continued overnight in Asia, with a number of indices trading higher including the CSI (+1.76%), the Shanghai Composite (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.89%), and the KOSPI (+0.37%). However, both the Nikkei (-0.27%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.28%) lost ground. On the data front, China’s inflation numbers this morning showed that CPI rose to +2.3% year-on-year in November, slightly lower than forecast +2.5%, albeit still the highest since last August. The PPI readings remained much stronger, but did fall back from a 26-year high last month to +12.9% year-on-year (vs. +12.1% forecast). Looking ahead, futures are indicating a mixed start in the US & Europe with S&P 500 (-0.13%) and DAX (+0.12%) seeing modest moves in either direction. Overnight we also heard from President Biden on Russia, who said that he hoped to announce high-level talks by tomorrow where they would discuss Russian concerns about NATO, and that this would include at least four major NATO allies. President Biden said the meeting was an explicit attempt to “bring down the temperature along the eastern front” that’s ramped up over recent days and weeks. Nevertheless, President Biden reinforced that the US was ready to implement severe economic sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, telling reporters that he said to Putin there would be “economic consequences like none he’s ever seen”. Back to yesterday, and the Bank of Canada kept policy on hold at their meeting, as was expected. The bank reinforced their expectation for the 2 percent inflation target to be sustainably achieved in the “middle quarters of 2022”. Like other DM central banks, they are focused on persistently elevated inflation, which they tied to supply constraints that will take some time to alleviate. We had some rate hikes elsewhere, however, yesterday with Brazil’s central bank taking rates up by 150bps to 9.25%, whilst Poland’s hiked rates by +50bps to 1.75%. The main data of note yesterday were the US job openings for October, which rose to 11.033m (vs. 10.469m expected) after 2 successive monthly declines. Notably the quits rate, which is a good indicator of labour market tightness, saw its first monthly decline since May as it came down to 2.8%, from an all-time record of 3.0%. To the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, with data releases including the US weekly initial jobless claims, as well as the German trade balance for October. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/09/2021 - 07:55.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytDec 9th, 2021

Futures Rebound From Friday Rout As Omicron Fears Ease

Futures Rebound From Friday Rout As Omicron Fears Ease S&P futures and European stocks rebounded from Friday’s selloff while Asian shares fell, as investors took comfort in reports from South Africa which said initial data doesn’t show a surge of hospitalizations as a result of the omicron variant, a view repeated by Anthony Fauci on Sunday. Meanwhile, fears about a tighter Fed were put on the backburner. Also overnight, China’s central bank announced it will cut the RRR by 50bps releasing 1.2tn CNY in liquidity, a move that had been widely expected. The cut comes as insolvent Chinese property developer Evergrande was said to be planning to include all its offshore public bonds and private debt obligations in a restructuring plan. US equity futures rose 0.3%, fading earlier gains, and were last trading at 4,550. Nasdaq futures pared losses early in the U.S. morning, trading down 0.4%. Oil rose after Saudi Arabia boosted the prices of its crude, signaling confidence in the demand outlook, which helped lift European energy shares. The 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 1.40%, while the dollar was little changed and the yen weakened. “A wind of relief may blow the current risk-off trading stance away this week,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at U.K. brokerage ActivTrades. “Concerns related to the omicron variant may ease after South African experts didn’t register any surge in deaths or hospitalization.” As Bloromberg notes, the mood across markets was calmer on Monday after last week’s big swings in technology companies and a crash in Bitcoin over the weekend. Investors pointed to good news from South Africa that showed hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed by the latest wave of Covid cases. Initial data from South Africa are “a bit encouraging regarding the severity,” Anthony Fauci, U.S. President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said on Sunday. At the same time, he cautioned that it’s too early to be definitive. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Alibaba’s (BABA US) U.S.-listed shares rise 1.9% in premarket after a 8.2% drop Friday prompted by the delisting plans of Didi Global. Alibaba said earlier it is replacing its CFO and reshuffling the heads of its commerce businesses Rivian (RIVN US) has the capabilities to compete with Tesla and take a considerable share of the electric vehicle market, Wall Street analysts said as they started coverage with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Shares rose 2.2% initially in U.S. premarket trading, but later wiped out gains to drop 0.9% Stocks tied to former President Donald Trump jump in U.S. premarket trading after his media company agreed to a $1 billion investment from a SPAC Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks tumble amid volatile trading in Bitcoin, another indication of the risk aversion sweeping across financial markets Laureate Education (LAUR US) approved the payment of a special cash distribution of $0.58 per share. Shares rose 2.8% in postmarket Friday AbCellera Biologics (ABCL US) gained 6.2% postmarket Friday after the company confirmed that its Lilly-partnered monoclonal antibody bamlanivimab, together with etesevimab, received an expanded emergency use authorization from the FDA as the first antibody therapy in Covid-19 patients under 12 European equities drifted lower after a firm open. Euro Stoxx 50 faded initial gains of as much as 0.9% to trade up 0.3%. Other cash indexes follow suit, but nonetheless remain in the green. FTSE MIB sees the largest drop from session highs. Oil & gas is the strongest sector, underpinned after Saudi Arabia raised the prices of its crude. Tech, autos and financial services lag. Companies that benefited from increased demand during pandemic-related lockdowns are underperforming in Europe on Monday as investors assess whether the omicron Covid variant will force governments into further social restrictions. Firms in focus include meal-kit firm HelloFresh (-2.3%) and online food delivery platforms Delivery Hero (-5.4%), Just Eat Takeaway (-5.6%) and Deliveroo (-8.5%). Remote access software firm TeamViewer (-3.7%) and Swedish mobile messaging company Sinch (-3.0%), gaming firm Evolution (-4.2%). Online pharmacies Zur Rose (-5.1%), Shop Apotheke (-3.5%). Online grocer Ocado (-2.2%), online apparel retailer Zalando (-1.5%). In Asia, the losses were more severe as investors remained wary over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and the spread of the omicron variant.  The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at the lowest level since its inception. SoftBank Group Corp. fell as much as 9% in Tokyo trading as the value of its portfolio came under more pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.9%, hovering above its lowest finish in about a year. Consumer discretionary firms and software technology names contributed the most to the decline, while the financial sector outperformed.  Hong Kong’s equity benchmark was among the region’s worst performers amid the selloff in tech shares. The market also slumped after the omicron variant spread among two fully vaccinated travelers across the hallway of a quarantine hotel in the city, unnerving health authorities. “People are waiting for new information on the omicron variant,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management in Tokyo. “We’re at a point where it’s difficult to buy stocks.” Separately, China’s central bank announced after the country’s stock markets closed that it will cut the amount of cash most banks must keep in reserve from Dec. 15, providing a liquidity boost to economic growth.  Futures on the Nasdaq 100 gained further in Asia late trading. The underlying gauge slumped 1.7% on Friday, after data showed U.S. job growth had its smallest gain this year and the unemployment rate fell more than forecast. Investors seem to be focusing more on the improved jobless rate, as it could back the case for an acceleration in tapering, Ichikawa said.  Asian equities have been trending lower since mid-November amid a selloff in Chinese technology giants, concern over U.S. monetary policy and the spread of omicron. The risk-off sentiment pushed shares to a one-year low last week.  Overnight, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps (as expected) effective 15th Dec; will release CNY 1.2tln in liquidity; RRR cut to guide banks for SMEs and will use part of funds from RRR cut to repay MLF. Will not resort to flood-like stimulus; will reduce capital costs for financial institutions by around CNY 15bln per annum. The news follows earlier reports via China Securities Daily which noted that China could reduce RRR as soon as this month, citing a brokerage firm. However, a separate Chinese press report noted that recent remarks by Chinese Premier Li on the reverse repo rate doesn't mean that there will be a policy change and an Economics Daily commentary piece suggested that views of monetary policy moves are too simplistic and could lead to misunderstandings after speculation was stoked for a RRR cut from last week's comments by Premier Li. Elsewhere, Indian stocks plunged in line with peers across Asia as investors remained uncertain about the emerging risks from the omicron variant in a busy week of monetary policy meetings.   The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 1.7% to 56,747.14, in Mumbai, dropping to its lowest level in over three months, with all 30 shares ending lower. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also declined by a similar magnitude. Infosys Ltd. was the biggest drag on both indexes and declined 2.3%.  All 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a measure of software exporters.  “If not for the new omicron variant, economic recovery was on a very strong footing,” Mohit Nigam, head of portfolio management services at Hem Securities Ltd. said in a note. “But if this virus quickly spreads in India, then we might experience some volatility for the coming few weeks unless development is seen on the vaccine side.” Major countries worldwide have detected omicron cases, even as the severity of the variant still remains unclear. Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, while the Indian central bank will release it on Dec. 8. the hawkish comments by U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell on tackling rising inflation also weighed on the market Japanese equities declined, following U.S. peers lower, as investors considered prospects for inflation, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt and the omicron virus strain. Telecommunications and services providers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.5%. SoftBank Group and Daiichi Sankyo were the largest contributors to a 0.4% loss in the Nikkei 225. The Mothers index slid 3.8% amid the broader decline in growth stocks. A sharp selloff in large technology names dragged U.S. stocks lower Friday. U.S. job growth registered its smallest gain this year in November while the unemployment rate fell by more than forecast to 4.2%. There were some good aspects in the U.S. jobs data, said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute. “We’re in this contradictory situation where there’s concern over an early rate hike given the economic recovery, while at the same time there’s worry over how the omicron variant may slow the current recovery.” Australian stocks ended flat as staples jumped. The S&P/ASX 200 index closed little changed at 7,245.10, swinging between gains and losses during the session as consumer staples rose and tech stocks fell. Metcash was the top performer after saying its 1H underlying profit grew 13% y/y. Nearmap was among the worst performers after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will be removed from the benchmark as a result of its quarterly review. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.6% to 12,597.81. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gave up a modest advance as the European session got underway; the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers with commodity currencies among the leaders and havens among the laggards. JPY and CHF are the weakest in G-10, SEK outperforms after hawkish comments in the Riksbank’s minutes. USD/CNH drifts back to flat after a fairly well telegraphed RRR cut materialized early in the London session.  The euro fell to a day low of $1.1275 before paring. The pound strengthened against the euro and dollar, following stocks higher. Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent due to speak. Market participants will be watching for his take on the impact of the omicron variant following the cautious tone of Michael Saunders’ speech on Friday. Treasury yields gapped higher at the start of the day and futures remain near lows into early U.S. session, leaving yields cheaper by 4bp to 5bp across the curve. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.395%, cheaper by 5bp vs. Friday’s close while the 2s10s curve steepens almost 2bps with front-end slightly outperforming; bunds trade 4bp richer vs. Treasuries in 10-year sector. November's mixed U.S. jobs report did little to shake market expectations of more aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. Italian bonds outperformed euro-area peers after Fitch upgraded the sovereign by one notch to BBB, maintaining a stable outlook. In commodities, crude futures drift around best levels during London hours. WTI rises over 1.5%, trading either side of $68; Brent stalls near $72. Spot gold trends lower in quiet trade, near $1,780/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME copper outperforms, holding in the green with lead; nickel and aluminum drop more than 1%. There is nothing on today's economic calendar. Focus this week includes U.S. auctions and CPI data, while Fed speakers enter blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,567.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 466.39 MXAP down 0.9% to 189.95 MXAPJ down 1.0% to 617.01 Nikkei down 0.4% to 27,927.37 Topix down 0.5% to 1,947.54 Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 23,349.38 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,589.31 Sensex down 1.5% to 56,835.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,245.07 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,973.25 Brent Futures up 2.9% to $71.89/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,780.09 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 96.26 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.37% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1290 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Speculators were caught offside in both bonds and stocks last week, increasing their bets against U.S. Treasuries and buying more equity exposure right before a bout of volatility caused the exact opposite moves Inflation pressure in Europe is still likely to be temporary, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe said Monday, even if it is taking longer than expected for it to slow China Evergrande Group’s stock tumbled close to a record low amid signs a long-awaited debt restructuring may be at hand, while Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. faces a potential default this week in major tests of China’s ability to limit fallout from the embattled property sector China Evergrande Group is planning to include all its offshore public bonds and private debt obligations in a restructuring that may rank among the nation’s biggest ever, people familiar with the matter said China tech shares tumbled on Monday, with a key gauge closing at its lowest level since launch last year as concerns mount over how much more pain Beijing is willing to inflict on the sector The U.S. is poised to announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics, CNN reported, a move that would create a new point of contention between the world’s two largest economies SNB Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg to retire at the end of July 2022, according to statement Bitcoin has markedly underperformed rivals like Ether with its weekend drop, which may underscore its increased connection with macro developments Austrians who reject mandatory coronavirus vaccinations face 600-euro ($677) fines, according to a draft law seen by the Kurier newspaper Some Riksbank board members expressed different nuances regarding the asset holdings and considered that it might become appropriate for the purchases to be tapered further next year,  the Swedish central bank says in minutes from its Nov. 24 meeting A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities began the week cautiously following last Friday's negative performance stateside whereby the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq closed lower by around 2% apiece, whilst the S&P 500 and Dow Jones saw shallower losses. The Asia-Pac region was also kept tentative amid China developer default concerns and conflicting views regarding speculation of a looming RRR cut by China's PBoC. The ASX 200 (+0.1%) was initially dragged lower by a resumption of the underperformance in the tech sector, and with several stocks pressured by the announcement of their removal from the local benchmark, although losses for the index were later reversed amid optimism after Queensland brought forward the easing of state border restrictions, alongside the resilience in the defensive sectors. The Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) suffered from the currency inflows late last week but finished off worse levels. The Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were mixed with Hong Kong weighed by heavy tech selling and as default concerns added to the headwinds after Sunshine 100 Holdings defaulted on a USD 170mln bond payment, whilst Evergrande shares slumped in early trade after it received a demand for payments but noted there was no guarantee it will have the sufficient funds and with the grace period for two offshore bond payments set to expire today. Conversely, mainland China was kept afloat by hopes of a looming RRR cut after comments from Chinese Premier Li that China will cut RRR in a timely manner and a brokerage suggested this could occur before year-end. However, other reports noted the recent remarks by Chinese Premier Li on the reverse repo rate doesn't mean a policy change and that views of monetary policy moves are too simplistic which could lead to misunderstandings. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady after having marginally extended above 152.00 and with prices helped by the lacklustre mood in Japanese stocks, while price action was tame amid the absence of BoJ purchases in the market today and attention was also on the Chinese 10yr yield which declined by more than 5bps amid speculation of a potentially looming RRR cut. Top Asian News SoftBank Slumps 9% Monday After Week of Bad Portfolio News Alibaba Shares Rise Premarket After Rout, Leadership Changes China PBOC Repeats Prudent Policy Stance With RRR Cut China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio as Economy Slows Bourses in Europe kicked off the new trading week higher across the board but have since drifted lower (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) following a somewhat mixed lead from APAC. Sentiment across markets saw a fleeting boost after the Asia close as China’s central bank opted to cut the RRR by 50bps, as touted overnight and in turn releasing some CNY 1.2tln in liquidity. This saw US equity futures ticking to marginal fresh session highs, whilst the breakdown sees the RTY (+0.6%) outpacing vs the ES (Unch), YM (+0.3%) and NQ (-0.6%), with the US benchmarks eyeing this week’s US CPI as Fed speakers observe the blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC policy decision – where policymakers are expected to discuss a quickening of the pace of QE taper. From a technical standpoint, the ESz1 and NQz1 see their 50 DMAs around 4,540 and 16,626 respectively. Back to trade, Euro-indices are off best levels with a broad-based performance. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.8%) received a boost from base metals gaining impetus on the PBoC RRR cut, with the UK index now the outperformer, whilst gains in Oil & Gas and Banks provide further tailwinds. Sectors initially started with a clear cyclical bias but have since seen a reconfiguration whereby the defensives have made their way up the ranks. The aforementioned Oil & Gas, Banks and Basic Resources are currently the winners amid upward action in crude, yields and base metals respectively. Food & Beverages and Telecoms kicked off the session at the bottom of the bunch but now reside closer to the middle of the table. The downside meanwhile sees Travel & Tech – two sectors which were at the top of the leaderboard at the cash open – with the latter seeing more noise surrounding valuations and the former initially unreactive to UK tightening measures for those travelling into the UK. In terms of individual movers, AstraZeneca (+0.7%) is reportedly studying the listing of its new vaccine division. BT (+1.2%) holds onto gains as Discovery is reportedly in discussions regarding a partnership with BT Sport and is offering to create a JV, according to sources. Taylor Wimpey (Unch) gave up opening gains seen in wake of speculation regarding Elliott Management purchasing a small stake. Top European News Johnson Says U.K. Awaiting Advice on Omicron Risks Before Review Scholz Names Harvard Medical Expert to Oversee Pandemic Policy EU Inflation Still Seen as Temporary, Eurogroup’s Donohoe Says Saudi Crown Prince Starts Gulf Tour as Rivalries Melt Away In FX, the Buck has settled down somewhat after Friday’s relatively frenetic session when price action and market moves were hectic on the back of a rather mixed BLS report and stream of Omicron headlines, with the index holding a tight line above 96.000 ahead of a blank US agenda. The Greenback is gleaning some traction from the firmer tone in yields, especially at the front end of the curve, while also outperforming safer havens and funding currencies amidst a broad upturn in risk sentiment due to perceivably less worrying pandemic assessments of late and underpinned by the PBoC cutting 50 bp off its RRR, as widely touted and flagged by Chinese Premier Li, with effect from December 15 - see 9.00GMT post on the Headline Feed for details, analysis and the initial reaction. Back to the Dollar and index, high betas and cyclicals within the basket are doing better as the latter meanders between 96.137-379 and well inside its wide 95.944-96.451 pre-weekend extremes. AUD/GBP/CAD/NZD - A technical correction and better news on the home front regarding COVID-19 after Queensland announced an earlier date to ease border restrictions, combined to give the Aussie a lift, but Aud/Usd is tightening its grip on the 0.7000 handle with the aid of the PBoC’s timely and targeted easing in the run up to the RBA policy meeting tomorrow. Similarly, the Pound appears to have gleaned encouragement from retaining 1.3200+ status and fending off offers into 0.8550 vs the Euro rather than deriving impetus via a rise in the UK construction PMI, while the Loonie is retesting resistance around 1.2800 against the backdrop of recovering crude prices and eyeing the BoC on Wednesday to see if guidance turns more hawkish following a stellar Canadian LFS. Back down under, the Kiwi is straddling 0.6750 and 1.0400 against its Antipodean peer in wake of a pick up in ANZ’s commodity price index. CHF/JPY/EUR - Still no sign of SNB action, but the Franc has fallen anyway back below 0.9200 vs the Buck and under 1.0400 against the Euro, while the Yen is under 113.00 again and approaching 128.00 respectively, as the single currency continues to show resilience either side of 1.1300 vs its US counterpart and a Fib retracement level at 1.1290 irrespective of more poor data from Germany and a deterioration in the Eurozone Sentix index, but increases in the construction PMIs. SCANDI/EM - The aforementioned revival in risk appetite, albeit fading, rather than Riksbank minutes highlighting diverse opinion, is boosting the Sek, and the Nok is also drawing some comfort from Brent arresting its decline ahead of Usd 70/brl, but the Cnh and Cny have been capped just over 6.3700 by the PBoC’s RRR reduction and ongoing default risk in China’s property sector. Elsewhere, the Try remains under pressure irrespective of Turkey’s Foreign Minister noting that domestic exports are rising and the economy is growing significantly, via Al Jazeera or claiming that the Lira is exposed to high inflation to a degree, but this is a temporary problem, while the Rub is treading cautiously before Russian President Putin and US President Biden make a video call on Tuesday at 15.00GMT. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are firmer on the day with the complex underpinned by Saudi Aramco upping its official selling prices (OSPs) to Asian and US customers, coupled with the lack of progress on the Iranian nuclear front. To elaborate on the former; Saudi Arabia set January Arab light crude oil OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai average +USD 3.30/bbl which is an increase from this month’s premium of USD 2.70/bbl, while it set light crude OSP to North-West Europe at ICE Brent USD -1.30/bbl vs. this month’s discount of USD 0.30/bbl and set light crude OSP to the US at ASCI +USD 2.15/bbl vs this month’s premium of USD 1.75/bbl. Iranian nuclear talks meanwhile are reportedly set to resume over the coming weekend following deliberations, although the likelihood of a swift deal at this point in time seems minuscule. A modest and fleeting boost was offered to the complex by the PBoC cutting RRR in a bid to spur the economy. WTI Jan resides on either side of USD 68/bbl (vs low USD 66.72/bbl) whilst Brent Feb trades around USD 71.50/bbl (vs low 70.24/bbl). Over to metals, spot gold trades sideways with the cluster of DMAs capping gains – the 50, 200 and 100 DMAs for spot reside at USD 1,792/oz, USD 1,791.50/oz and USD 1,790/oz respectively. Base metals also saw a mild boost from the PBoC announcement – LME copper tested USD 9,500/t to the upside before waning off best levels. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We’re really at a fascinating crossroads in markets at the moment. The market sentiment on the virus and the policymakers at the Fed are moving in opposite directions. The greatest impact of this last week was a dramatic 21.1bps flattening of the US 2s10s curve, split almost evenly between 2yr yields rising and 10yrs yields falling. As it stands, the Fed are increasingly likely to accelerate their taper next week with a market that is worried that it’s a policy error. I don’t think it is as I think the Fed is way behind the curve. However I appreciate that until we have more certainly on Omicron then it’s going to be tough to disprove the policy error thesis. The data so far on Omicron can be fitted to either a pessimistic or optimistic view. On the former, it seems to be capable of spreading fast and reinfecting numerous people who have already had covid. Younger people are also seeing a higher proportion of admissions which could be worrying around the world given lower vaccinations levels in this cohort. On the other hand, there is some evidence in South Africa that ICU usage is lower relative to previous waves at the same stage and that those in hospital are largely unvaccinated and again with some evidence that they are requiring less oxygen than in previous waves. It really does feel like Omicron could still go both ways. It seems that it could be both more transmittable but also less severe. How that impacts the world depends on the degree of both. It could be bad news but it could also actually accelerate the end of the pandemic which would be very good news. Lots of people more qualified than me to opine on this aren’t sure yet so we will have to wait for more news and data. I lean on the optimistic side here but that’s an armchair epidemiologist’s view. Anthony Fauci (chief medical advisor to Mr Biden) said to CNN last night that, “We really gotta be careful before we make any determinations that it is less severe or really doesn’t clause any severe illness comparable to Delta, but this far the signals are a bit encouraging….. It does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it.” Anyway, the new variant has taken a hold of the back end of the curve these past 10 days. Meanwhile the front end is taking its guidance from inflation and the Fed. On cue, could this Friday see the first 7% US CPI print since 1982? With DB’s forecasts at 6.9% for the headline (+5.1% for core) we could get close to breaking such a landmark level. With the Fed on their media blackout period now, this is and Omicron are the last hurdles to cross before the FOMC conclusion on the 15th December where DB expect them to accelerate the taper and head for a March end. While higher energy prices are going to be a big issue this month, the recent falls in the price of oil may provide some hope on the inflation side for later in 2022. However primary rents and owners’ equivalent rents (OER), which is 40% of core CPI, is starting to turn and our models have long suggested a move above 4.5% in H1 2022. In fact if we shift-F9 the model for the most recent points we’re looking like heading towards a contribution of 5.5% now given the signals from the lead indicators. So even as YoY energy prices ease and maybe covid supply issues slowly fade, we still think inflation will stay elevated for some time. As such it was a long overdue move to retire the word transitory last week from the Fed’s lexicon. Another of our favourite measures to show that the Fed is way behind the curve at the moment is the quits rate that will be contained within Wednesday’s October JOLTS report. We think the labour market is very strong in the US at the moment with the monthly employment report lagging that strength. Having said that the latest report on Friday was reasonably strong behind the headline payroll disappointment. We’ll review that later. The rest of the week ahead is published in the day by day calendar at the end but the other key events are the RBA (Tuesday) and BoC (Wednesday) after the big market disruptions post their previous meetings, Chinese CPI and PPI (Thursday), final German CPI (Friday) and the US UoM consumer confidence (Friday). Also look out for Congressional newsflow on how the year-end debt ceiling issue will get resolved and also on any progress in the Senate on the “build back better” bill which they want to get through before year-end. Mr Manchin remains the main powerbroker. In terms of Asia as we start the week, stocks are trading mixed with the CSI (+0.62%), Shanghai Composite (+0.37%) and KOSPI (+0.11%) trading higher while the Nikkei (-0.50%) and Hang Seng (-0.91%) are lower. Chinese stock indices are climbing after optimism over a RRR rate cut after Premier Li Kequiang's comments last week that it could be cut in a timely manner to support the economy. In Japan SoftBank shares fell -9% and for a sixth straight day amid the Didi delisting and after the US FTC moved to block a key sale of a company in its portfolio. Elsewhere futures are pointing a positive opening in US and Europe with S&P 500 (+0.46%) and DAX (+1.00%) futures both trading well in the green. 10yr US Treasury yields are back up c.+4.2bps with 2yrs +2.6bps. Oil is also up c.2.2% Over the weekend Bitcoin fell around 20% from Friday night into Saturday. It’s rallied back a reasonable amount since (from $42,296 at the lows) and now stands at $48,981, all after being nearly $68,000 a month ago. Turning back to last week now, and the virus and hawkish Fed communications were the major themes. Despite so many unknowns (or perhaps because of it) markets were very responsive to each incremental Omicron headline last week, which drove equity volatility to around the highest levels of the year. The VIX closed the week at 30.7, shy of the year-to-date high of 37.21 reached in January and closed above 25 for 5 of the last 6 days. The S&P 500 declined -1.22% over the week (-0.84% Friday). The Stoxx 600 fell a more modest -0.28% last week, -0.57% on Friday. To be honest both felt like they fell more but we had some powerful rallies in between. The Nasdaq had a poorer week though, falling -c.2.6%, after a -1.9% decline on Friday. The other main theme was the pivot in Fed communications toward tighter policy. Testifying to Congress, Fed Chair Powell made a forceful case for accelerating the central bank’s asset purchase taper program, citing persistent elevated inflation and an improving labour market, amid otherwise strong demand in the economy, clearing the way for rate hikes thereafter. Investors priced in higher probability of earlier rate hikes, but still have the first full Fed hike in July 2022. 2yr treasury yields were sharply higher (+9.1bps on week, -2.3bps Friday) while 10yr yields declined (-12.0bps on week, -9.1bps Friday) on the prospect of a hard landing incurred from quick Fed tightening as well as the gloomy Covid outlook. The yield curve flattened -21.1bps (-6.8bps Friday) to 75.6bps, the flattest it has been since December 2020, or three stimulus bills ago if you like (four if you think build back better is priced in). German and UK debt replicated the flattening, with 2yr yields increasing +1.3bps (-0.7bps Friday) in Germany, and +0.3bps (-6.7bps) in UK this week, with respective 10yr yields declining -5.3bps (-1.9bps Friday) and -7.8bps (-6.4bps Friday). On the bright side, Congress passed a stopgap measure to keep the government funded through February, buying lawmakers time to agree to appropriations for the full fiscal year, avoiding a disruptive shutdown. Positive momentum out of DC prompted investors to increase the odds the debt ceiling will be resolved without issue, as well, with yields on Treasury bills maturing in December declining a few basis points following the news. US data Friday was strong. Despite the headline payroll increase missing the mark (+210k v expectations of +550k), the underlying data painted a healthy labour market picture, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.2%, and participation increasing to 61.8%. Meanwhile, the ISM services index set another record high. Oil prices initially fell after OPEC unexpectedly announced they would proceed with planned production increases at their January meeting. They rose agin though before succumbing to the Omicron risk off. Futures prices ended the week down again, with Brent futures -3.67% lower (+0.55% Friday) and WTI futures -2.57% on the week (-0.15% Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 12/06/2021 - 07:51.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytDec 6th, 2021

Casinos made Macau one of the wealthiest places in the world — but they also brought heightened inequality and crime. Now, China is cracking down.

Macau's gaming liberalization in 2002 was meant to make the city a world center for tourism. That didn't exactly happen. "Gaming is 70-80% of Macau's GDP. It's shockingly high," said Alidad Tash, who runs a consultancy firm called 2NT8 Macau.Nikada / Getty ImagesThe entire infrastructure of Macau's success has been built on casinos. But under Beijing's regulatory crackdowns, gaming operators will have to abide by new rules — or risk losing their licenses.At 32 square kilometers, Macau is just 5% of Singapore's size. It's about half the size of Manhattan. Yet it has more than 35,000 hotel rooms, 30 Michelin-star restaurants, and 25 UNESCO World Heritage Sites. And it clocks gaming revenues that are six times that of the Las Vegas Strip.It's also one of the wealthiest places in the world.Alidad Tash is an expert in gaming operation and strategy who worked for 10 years in Vegas and Macau with the Sands organization. He said Macau's gaming revenue was $36 billion in pre-pandemic 2019, while Vegas raked in just $6 billion."Gaming is 70-80% of Macau's GDP. It's shockingly high," said Tash, who now runs his own consultancy firm, 2NT8 Macau.But the wealth rests in the hands of a few — and that, in turn, is at odds with the government's "common prosperity" messaging. In September, officials announced a regulatory overhaul. Gaming licenses in Macau expire in June 2022.The timing of the announcement is in line with Beijing's regulatory crackdowns, and it means gaming operators will have to abide by new rules or risk losing their licenses. There were also hints of Chinese officials supervising the world's largest gambling hub. All this caused shares of casino companies, particularly American operators Sands China and Wynn Macau, to plunge.Getting Macau to amp up the non-gaming elements of the island will be a challenge, according to casino development strategists and hospitality consultants Insider spoke to. For one, Macau is tiny. But mainly, it's a victim of its own success for focusing on gaming as its sole cash cow.Macau is a victim of its own success for focusing on gaming as its sole cash cow.Tibor Bognar / Getty ImagesMore money, but not for everyoneVictoria Fuh is the vice president of Macau Meetings, Incentives and Special Events Association. Fuh told Insider that when she arrived in Macau 16 years ago, most meeting planners didn't know where Macau was. Today, it's on the list of venue options for international conferences that rotate globally."Year after year, Macau adds new hotels and attractions, so it's always fresh for our clients," said Fuh.Since 1962, Stanley Ho — the late "King of Macau" — and his family held a monopoly over Macau's gambling industry as the only licensee for casinos. When Macau broke the monopoly in 2002, five more casino operators entered: Sands China, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Entertainment, and MGM China. Collectively, they now operate 41 casinos.With the casinos came a lot of money. Macau is the only place in China where gambling is legal, and casinos have had a strong 20-year run."Macau's GDP per capita shot up from a low of $12,352 in 1992 to $71,974 in 2020," said Ben Lee, managing partner of IGamiX Management & Consulting. "However, most of that wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few."There's a lot of money in Macau, but there's also extreme wealth inequality.polybutmono / Getty ImagesThe government started a one-off annual cash handout to residents in 2008. In 2020, the amount allocated to residents was 15,000 patacas ($1,870).Lee, who has lived in Macau for 16 years, told Insider the annual lump sum is "nominal.""China sees how this creates social problems in Hong Kong and probably wants to avoid the same outcome in Macau," Lee added.Were it not for subsidies and welfare benefits like these, Macau's Gini coefficient — which is used to measure inequality — would have been 0.4% in 2017-2018, hitting the high inequality mark, according to the 2020 Statistics and Census Bureau survey as reported by Macau Business.And while the government reports a low poverty rate — 2.3% in 2017 — the percentage is based solely on income and ignores the growing cost of living that accompanied the casino boom.Wealth inequality isn't the only issue in Macau. For one, there's crime: According to a paper from the Macao Institute for Tourism Studies, since the liberalization of casino licensing in 2002, crime has "increased drastically."There are other social problems, such as a whole generation of young people dropping out of studies to work in the gaming industry because of its financial rewards, according to Robbert van der Mass, director of APAC Hospitality Services Macau. This in turn affects small retail shops and restaurants, many of which have disappeared as they couldn't compete with salaries offered at casino resorts."When casinos make money, no supplier gets rich," said Tash.leungchopan / Getty ImagesOne-trick ponyMacau is well positioned for tourism: At its feet is the massive mainland market and neighboring Hong Kong, which together accounted for 90% of Macau's 39 million arrivals in pre-pandemic 2019, Macau Statistics & Census Service, locally known as DSEC, shows.In 2019, there were 60 times more tourists than locals in Macau, per DSEC figures. But the average length of stay in Macau is just 1.2 days, compared with 2.7 days in Singapore and 3.3 days in Hong Kong. That's partly due to a high number of day-trippers, which accounted for 53% of arrivals in 2019, DSEC data shows.Macau's gaming liberalization in 2002 was meant to make the city a world center for tourism, while Hong Kong became an international financial center, said Lee. That didn't exactly happen."Instead, Macau became China's center for gambling," Lee said. "And despite the anti-corruption campaign [in 2012] and a series of anti-gambling edicts subsequently, casinos' non-gaming revenue never really got off to any significant volume, staying at about 5% of their gross revenue on average."This compares with 50% in Vegas and 30% in Singapore, experts interviewed said.However, non-gaming creates more jobs than gaming does — and it benefits small- and medium-sized suppliers more, said some of the experts."When casinos make money, no supplier gets rich," said Tash. "If I spend money in a hotel room, there is a lot more labor involved. Non-gaming supplies wealth for the overall community far more than gaming."Macau is facing increased competition for Asian customers as the gaming industry develops elsewhere in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.Jui-Chi Chan / Getty ImagesKeeping Macau relevantWith its gaming licenses expiring in eight months, Macau now has a chance to reframe its gaming history."This isn't a renewal, it's a new open tender and anyone can bid for a new concession," said Lee. He said the government will likely offer prescriptive terms and demand clear non-gaming plans that extend beyond restaurants and retail."They want to see real non-gaming, such as the development of meetings and conventions, entertainment, art, and other attractions that go towards building a healthy tourism industry," Lee said of the government's approach to Macau 2.0.A shift to more non-gaming could be beneficial for Macau tourism, said some of the tourism experts Insider spoke to. Some even see it as a chance for the city to redefine itself in line with newer travel trends.Van der Mass of APAC Hospitality Services opened the MGM Grand Macau in 2007. He said that over the years, he has noticed a "huge shift" in Chinese travelers' behavior towards culture and experiences in food, retail, and entertainment."Integrated resorts are under pressure to adapt their offerings here in Asia, because these customers are increasingly exposed to leading trends in the world. To build more retail and meeting facilities without evolving these segments is no longer acceptable," said van der Mass.Macau is facing increased competition for Asian customers as the gaming industry develops elsewhere in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, he said.The demographics of gaming travelers are also changing. "Younger travelers are inclined towards gaming online, and the pandemic only drives more of this behavior. I think we'll see a transition in Asia towards more non-gaming," said Ian Wilson, who worked six years at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore and now runs Wilson Innovation Lab.Attempts at moving beyond gamingCasino operators in Macau appear to be heeding the push for more non-gaming.Sands runs two casino resorts in Macau: The Venetian and The Parisian. The Venetian is the largest casino floor in Asia. Sands also tries to attract leisure visitors with attractions like Venice's canals and a replica of the Eiffel Tower. It's now remodeling the former Sands Cotai Central into a new resort called The Londoner, which will include replicas of London landmarks like the Houses of Parliament, Big Ben, and London-themed suites by David Beckham at one of the four hotel towers.Sands is remodeling the former Sands Cotai Central into a new resort called The Londoner, which will include replicas of London landmarks.Courtesy of Sheraton Macao Hotel MarketingThe project, opening in phases this year, has 351,000 square feet of gaming space and 369,000 square feet of meeting space. That's in addition to a 1,700-seat theater and enough retail space to fit 130 stores and 40 restaurants.While the move does reflect a diversification out of gaming, it does not address another missing element in the island's development: Macau's Euro-Asia history and heritage. "Gaming has overshadowed the development of other potential attractions and eclipsed some of the original character of Macau, such as its Euro-Asian heritage, in both tangible and intangible forms," said Leonardo Dioko, a professor at Macao Institute for Tourism Studies and a director of a tourism research center in Macau.A thinly veiled power playSome skeptics believe the regulatory overhaul is a thinly veiled power play for China to gain more control over the yuan's outflow and to strong-arm Macau — and the casinos — into adopting a digital currency, which is traceable."It's no coincidence that the target date for the implementation of the PRC digital yuan is 2024. China just wants to make sure that Macau is ready for the conversion when China wants it to be," said Ben Hirasawa, founder of BH21, a firm that advises hospitality and real-estate clients on project development in Asia.While the review's timing may be opportune for China, it's a setback for Macau tourism, which has been battered by the pandemic. In the first nine months of 2021, Macau had six million arrivals, a fraction of its 39 million visitors in 2019, according to DSEC."Although there have been times throughout the year where we can see a glimmer of hope and travel recovering, it swiftly changes when there is an outbreak somewhere close by or locally," said Janet McNab, who heads Sheraton Grand and St Regis in Macau.Ultimately, what's at stake is the entire infrastructure upon which Macau's success, unequal though it is, has been built. What's also in question is whether the niche it carved out for itself 20 years ago as Asia's gambling haven will still exist."Macau kind of exists for gaming," Wilson said. "But with gaming options continuing to increase around the world, Chinese nationals might even rather gamble in Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, or the Philippines, where they won't have quite the same level of scrutiny as they would in Macau."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytNov 18th, 2021

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low

Futures Flat Amid Fresh Inflation Jitters; Yen Tumbles To 5 Year Low Price action has been generally uninspiring, with US index futures and European stocks flat after UK inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, while Asian markets fell as investors fretted over early rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after strong retail earnings dented the stagflation narrative.  Ten-year Treasury yields held around 1.63% and the dollar was steady. Cryptocurrencies suffered a broad selloff, while oil extended losses amid talk of a coordinated U.S.-China release of reserves to tame prices. Gold rose. At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.0.3% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.15%, boosted by gains in Tesla and other electric car-makers amid growing demand for EV makers. Target Corp was the latest big-name retailer to report positive results, as it raised its annual forecasts and beat profit expectations, citing an early start in holiday shopping. But similar to Walmart, shares of the retailer fell 3.1% in premarket trade as its third-quarter margins were hit by supply-chain issues. Lowe's rose 2.2% after the home improvement chain raised its full-year sales forecast on higher demand from builders and contractors, as well as a strong U.S. housing market. Wall Street indexes had ended higher on Tuesday after data showed retail sales jumped in October, and Walmart and Home Depot both flagged strength in consumer demand going into the holiday season. While the readings showed that a rise in inflation has not stifled economic growth so far, any further gains in prices could potentially dampen an economic recovery. Indeed, even as global stocks trade near all-time highs, worries are rising that growth could be derailed by inflation, the resurgent virus, or both. The question remains whether the jump in costs will prove transitory or become a bigger challenge that forces a sharper monetary policy response, roiling both shares and bonds. The market now sees a 19% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in their March 2022 meet, up from 11.8% probability last month. “The markets are still driven by uncertainty regarding how transitory inflation is,” according to Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “The market is assessing the situation about inflation -- what is in the price and what is not.” On the earnings front, Baidu reported a 13% jump in sales after growth in newer businesses such as the cloud helped offset a slowdown in its main internet advertising division. Nvidia and Cisco Systems are scheduled to report results later today In premarket trading, Tesla inexplicably rose as much as 2.4% in U.S. pre-market trading, extending a bounce from the previous session after CEO Elon Musk disclosed even more stock sales. Peers Rivian and Lucid added 0.9% and 8.8%, respectively. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Electric-vehicle makers Rivian Automotive (RIVN US), Lucid (LCID US) and Canoo (GOEV US) all move higher in U.S. premarket trading on heavy volumes, extending their gains and after Rivian and Lucid notched up milestones in their market values on Tuesday. The gains for Rivian on Tuesday saw its market capitalization surpass Germany’s Volkswagen, while Lucid’s market value leapfrogged General Motors and Ford. Tesla (TSLA US) shares rise 1.3% in U.S. premarket trading, extending the bounce the EV maker saw in the prior session and after CEO Elon Musk disclosed more share sales. Visa (V US) shares slip in U.S. premarket trading after Amazon.com said it will stop accepting payments using Visa credit cards issued in the U.K. starting next year. Boeing (BA US) gains 1.9% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo upgrades the airplane maker to overweight from equal weight in a note, saying the risk-reward is now skewed positive. Citi initiates a pair trade of overweight Plug Power (PLUG US) and underweight Ballard Power Systems (BLDP US), downgrading the latter to neutral on weak sales in China and likely delay in meaningful fuel cell adoption. Ballard Power falls 3.4% in premarket trading. La-Z-Boy (LZB US) climbed 7% in postmarket trading after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal second quarter of 2022 that beat the average analyst estimate and boosted its quarterly dividend. StoneCo’s (STNE US) shares fall as much as 9% in postmarket trading Tuesday after the fintech reported a weaker-than-expected adjusted results for the third quarter. Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI US) rose 11% in extended trading after saying it submitted an Emergency Use Authorization application to the U.S FDA for its new DPP SARS-CoV-2 Antigen test. European stocks treaded water with U.S. equity futures as the worst outbreak of Covid infections since the start of the pandemic held the rally in check. In the U.K., inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, pressing on the FTSE 100 to lag peer markets. Asian stocks fell, halting a four-day rally, as investors factored in higher Treasury yields and the outlook for U.S. monetary policy to assess whether the region’s recent gains were excessive.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.7%, pulling back from a two-month high reached Tuesday. The banking sector contributed the most to Wednesday’s drop as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported cash earnings that were below some estimates. South Korea led the region’s decline, with the Kospi falling more than 1%, weighed down by bio-pharmaceutical firms. Asia’s stocks are taking a breather from a run-up driven by expectations for earnings to improve and economies to recover from quarters of pandemic-induced weakness. The benchmark is coming off a two-week gain of 1.5%.  “Shares are correcting recent gains, although I’d say it’s not much of a correction as the drop is mild,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “The relatively solid economic performances in the U.S. and Europe signal positive trends for Asian exporters,” which will support equities over the long term, he said.  U.S. stocks climbed after data showed the biggest increase in U.S. retail sales since March, while results from Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. showed robust demand. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.64%, gaining for a fourth day. Japanese equities fell, cooling off after a four-day advance despite the yen’s drop to the lowest level against the dollar since 2017. Service providers and retailers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which dropped 0.6%. Recruit and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.4% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended its decline after tumbling 0.6% against the greenback on Tuesday. The value of Japan’s exports gained 9.4% in October, the slowest pace in eight months, adding to signs that global supply constraints are still weighing on the economy. Indian stocks fell, led by banking and energy companies, as worries over economic recovery and inflation hurt investors’ sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 60,008.33 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by 0.6%. The benchmark index has now dropped for five of seven sessions and is off 3.7% its record level reached on Oct. 18. All but five of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of real estate companies.  Fitch Ratings kept a negative outlook on India’s sovereign rating, already at the lowest investment grade, citing concerns over public debt that’s the highest among similar rated emerging-market sovereigns.  While high-frequency data suggests India’s economic recovery is taking hold, central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at an event on Tuesday that the recovery is uneven. “Feeble global cues are weighing on sentiment,” Ajit Mishra, a strategist with Religare Broking, said in a note. He expects indexes to slide further but the pace of decline to be gradual with Nifty having support at 17,700-17,800 level. Shares of Paytm are scheduled to start trading on Thursday after the digital payment company raised $2.5b in India’s biggest initial share sale. Local markets will be closed on Friday for a holiday.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.1%. The index heavyweight has lost 5% this week, headed for the biggest weekly drop since June 27. In rates, Treasuries were steady with yields slightly richer across the curve and gilts mildly outperforming after paring early losses. Treasury yields except 20-year are richer by less than 1bp across curve with 30-year sector outperforming slightly; 10-year yields around 1.63% after rising as high as 1.647% in early Asia session. Focal points for U.S. session include 20-year bond auction -- against backdrop of Fed decision to not taper in the sector, made after last week’s poorly bid 30-year bond sale, and seven Fed speakers scheduled. The $23BN 20-year new issue at 1pm ET is first at that size after cuts announced this month; WI yield at 2.06% is 4bp richer than last month’s, which tailed the WI by 2.5bp. In Europe, gilts richen slightly across the short end, short-sterling futures fade an open drop after a hot inflation print. Peripheral spreads are marginally wider to core. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drifted after earlier rising to its highest level in over a year, spurred by strong U.S. retail sales and factory output data Tuesday; the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers though most currencies were consolidating recent losses against the greenback. The pound reached its strongest level against the euro in nearly nine months after U.K. inflation climbed faster than expected to the highest in a decade, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The Australian dollar hit a six-week low as third quarter wage data missed the central bank’s target, prompting offshore funds to sell the currency; the three-year yield fell back under 1%. The yen declined to its lowest level in more than four years as growing wagers of quicker policy normalization in the U.S. contrasted with the outlook in Japan, where interest rates are expected to be kept low. Super-long bonds fell. Volatility broke through the recent calm in currency markets, where the cost of hedging against volatility in the euro against the dollar over the next month climbed the most since the pandemic struck in March 2020. The move comes as traders bake in bets on faster rate hikes to curb inflation. The Turkish lira extended the week’s downward move, weakening another 2% against the dollar after comments from Erdogan sent the USDTRY hitting record highs of 10.5619 The Chinese yuan advanced to its highest level since 2015 against a basket of trading partners’ currencies following the dollar’s surge. Bloomberg’s replica of the CFETS basket index rises 0.3% to 101.9571, closer to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the PBOC in 2015, testing the central bank’s tolerance before stepping in with intervention. In commodities, crude futures dropped as the market weighs the potential for a join U.S.-China stockpile-reserve release. WTI is down more than 1%, back on a $79-handle; Brent slips back toward $81.50, trading near the middle of this week’s range. Most base metals are under pressure with LME copper down as much as 1.4%. Spot gold adds $10 near $1,860/oz. European gas surged to the highest level in a month as delays to a controversial new pipeline from Russia stoked fears of a supply shortage with winter setting in. Cryptocurrencies remained lower after a tumble, with Bitcoin steadying around the $60,000 level. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,696.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 489.79 MXAP down 0.5% to 200.06 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 656.01 Nikkei down 0.4% to 29,688.33 Topix down 0.6% to 2,038.34 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 25,650.08 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,537.37 Sensex down 0.4% to 60,064.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,369.93 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,962.42 Brent Futures down 0.8% to $81.79/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,859.93 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.95 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.25% Euro little changed at $1.1310 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Bond traders are bracing for a key test Wednesday as the Treasury looks to sell its first long-dated debt since inflation worries spooked buyers at last week’s poorly received 30-year auction Increasingly stretched prices in property and financial markets, risk-taking by non-banks and elevated borrowing pose a threat to euro-area stability, the European Central Bank warned Germany is giving investors a rare chance to grab some of Europe’s safest and positive-yielding debt. The country will sell one billion euros ($1.13 billion) of its longest-dated debt at 10:30 a.m. London on Wednesday. The country’s 30-year notes are currently trading with a yield 0.09%. It’s a paltry rate, but probably the last time for a while that Germany will offer the maturity ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn says euro- area inflation is accelerating due to increasing demand pushing up the price of energy and supply bottlenecks, according to interview in Finland’s Talouselama magazine The yuan’s advance to a six-year high versus China’s trading partners this week has investors asking how far the central bank will let the rally run. The yuan extended gains on Wednesday against a basket of 24 currencies of the nation’s trading partners, bringing it close to the level that triggered a shock devaluation by the People’s Bank of China in 2015 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to continue fighting for lower interest rates, sending a clear signal to investors a day before the central bank sets its policy. The lira weakened A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed and struggled to sustain the positive lead from the US where better than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data spurred the major indices, in which the S&P 500 reclaimed the 4,700 level and briefly approached to within four points of its all-time high. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was led lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector amid weakness in the largest lender CBA despite a 20% jump in quarterly cash profit, as operating income was steady and it noted that loan margins were significantly lower. Mining related stocks also lagged in Australia due to the recent declines in global commodity prices amid the stronger USD and higher US yields. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) retraced its opening gains after disappointing Machinery Orders and miss on Exports which grew at the slowest pace in eight months, while the KOSPI (-1.2%) suffered due to virus concerns with daily infections at the second highest on record for South Korea. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were varied with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech stocks including NetEase post-earnings, while the mainland was choppy as markets continued to digest the recent Biden-Xi meeting that was described by President Biden as a 'good meeting' and in which they discussed the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks. US and China also agreed to provide access to each other’s journalists, although there were also comments from Commerce Secretary Raimondo that China is not living up to phase 1 trade commitments and it was reported that China is to speed up plans to replace US and foreign tech. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand hampered following the declines in T-notes, although downside was stemmed amid the flimsy sentiment across Asia-Pac trade and with the BoJ also in the market for JPY 925bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Set to Snap Four-Day Advance as Kospi Leads Decline Gold Rises as Fed Officials Feed Debate on Inflation Response Deadly Toxic Air Chokes Delhi as India Clings to Coal Power PBOC May Start Raising Rates by 10bps Every Quarter in 2022: TD European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) trade with little in the way of firm direction as the Stoxx 600 lingers around its ATH printed during yesterday’s session. The handover from the APAC session was mostly a softer one after the region failed to sustain the positive lead from the US which saw the S&P 500 approach within four points of its all-time high. Stateside, US futures are just as uninspiring as their European counterparts (ES flat) ahead of another busy day of Fed speak and pre-market earnings from retail names Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJK) with Cisco (CSCO) and NVIDIA (NVDA) due to report after-hours. Markets still await a decision on the next Fed Chair which President Biden said will come in around four days yesterday; as it stands, PredictIt assigns a circa 65% chance of Powell winning the renomination. Sectors in Europe have a marginal positive tilt with Media names outperforming peers alongside gains in Vivendi (+1.0%) after Italian prosecutors asked a judge to drop a case against Vivendi's owner and CEO for alleged market manipulation. Travel & Leisure names are the notable underperformer amid losses in sector heavyweight Evolution Gaming (-9.6%) who account for 14% of the sector with the Co. accused of taking illegal wagers. In terms of individual movers, Siemens Healthineers (+4.6%) is one of the best performers in the region after the Co. noted that revenues are on track to grow 6-8% between 2023 and 2025. UK Banking names such as Lloyds (+1.3%) and Natwest (+1.1%) have benefitted from the favourable rate environment in the UK with today’s inflation data further cementing expectations for a move in rates by the BoE next month. Conversely, this acted as a drag on the UK homebuilder sector at the open before moves were eventually scaled back. SSE (-4.5%) underperforms after announcing a GBP 12.5bln investment to accelerate its net zero ambitions. Top European News Epstein’s Paris Apartment Listed for $14 Million, Telegraph Says Volkswagen Shares Stall as Analysts Doubt Its EV Street Cred Germany to Move Ahead With Tighter Covid Curbs Amid Record Cases U.K. Urges EU Not to Start Trade War If Brexit Deal Suspended In FX, the Greenback extended Tuesday’s post-US retail sales and ip gains to set new 2021/multi-year highs overnight when the index hit 96.266 and several Dollar pairs probed or crossed psychological round numbers. However, the latest bull run has abated somewhat amidst some recovery gains in certain rival currencies and a general bout of consolidation ahead of housing data, another raft of Fed speakers and Usd 23 bn 20 year supply that will be of note after a bad debut for new long londs last week, not to mention tepid receptions for 3 and 10 year offerings prior to that. NZD/AUD - A marked change in the tide down under as the Aud/Nzd cross reverses sharply from around 1.0450 to sub-1.0400 and gives the Kiwi enough impetus to regain 0.7000+ status vs its US peer with extra incentive provided by NZ PM Ardern announcing that the entire country is expected to end lockdown and move to a new traffic light system after November 29, while Auckland’s domestic borders will reopen from December 15 for the fully vaccinated and those with negative COVID-19 tests. Conversely, the Aussie is struggling to stay within sight of 0.7300 against its US counterpart in wake of broadly in line Q3 wage prices that leaves the y/y rate still some way short of the 3% pace deemed necessary to lift overall inflation by the RBA. GBP/CAD - Sterling is striving to buck the overall trend with help from more forecast-topping UK data that should give the BoE a green light for lifting the Bank Rate in December, as headline CPI came in at 4.2% y/y, core at 3.4% and PPI prints indicate more price pressure building in the pipeline. Cable printed a minor new w-t-d peak circa 1.3474 in response before waning and Eur/Gbp fell below the prior y-t-d low and 0.8400, but is now back above awaiting more news on the Brexit front and a speech from one of the less hawkish MPC members, Mann. Elsewhere, the Loonie is hovering around 1.2550 vs the Greenback and looking toward Canadian inflation for some fundamental direction as oil prices continue to fluctuate near recent lows, but Usd/Cad may also be attracted to decent option expiry interest between 1.2540-55 in 1.12 bn. CHF/EUR/JPY - All straddling or adjacent to round numbers against the Dollar, but the Franc lagging below 0.9300 on yield differentials, while the Euro has recovered from a fresh 2021 trough under 1.1300 and Fib support at 1.1290 to fill a gap if nothing else, and the Yen just defended 115.00 irrespective of disappointing Japanese machinery orders and internals within the latest trade balance. In commodities, WTI and Brent benchmarks are pressured this morning but the magnitude of the action, circa USD 0.70/bbl at the time of writing, is less pronounced when compared to the range of the week thus far and particularly against last week’s moves. Newsflow has been slim and the downside action has arisen without fresh catalysts or drivers; note, participants are cognisant of influence perhaps being exerted by today’s WTI Dec’21 option expiry. To briefly surmise the morning’s action, Vitol executives provided bullish commentary citing limited capacity to deal with shocks and on that theme, there were reports of an explosion at an oil pipeline in Southern Iran, said to be due to aging equipment. This, alongside reports that Belarus is restricting oil flows to Poland for three-days for maintenance purposes, have not steadied the benchmarks. Elsewhere, last night’s private inventories were mixed but bullish overall, with the headline a smaller than expected build and gasoline a larger than expected draw. On gasoline, some desks posit that this draw may serve to increase pressure for a US SPR release, and as such look to today’s EIA release which is expected to print a gasoline draw of 0.575M. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer this morning but, in a similar vein to crude, remain well within familiar ranges as specific catalysts have been light and initial USD action has largely fizzled out to the index pivoting the U/C mark. More broadly, base metals are pressured as inventories of iron ore are at their highest for almost three years in China as demand drops, with this having a knock-on impact on coking coal, for instance. US Event Calendar 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.5% 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits, est. 1.63m, prior 1.59m, revised 1.59m 8:30am: Oct. Building Permits MoM, est. 2.8%, prior -7.7%, revised -7.8% 8:30am: Oct. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -1.6%; Housing Starts, est. 1.58m, prior 1.56m DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap Even as inflation jitters remained on investors’ radars, that didn’t prevent risk assets pushing onto fresh highs yesterday, as investor sentiment was bolstered by strong economic data and decent corporate earnings releases. In fact by the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.39%) had closed just -0.02% beneath its all-time closing record, in a move that also brought the index’s YTD gains back above +25%, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.17%) hit an all-time high as it posted its 16th gain in the last 18 sessions. Starting with the data, we had a number of positive US releases for October out yesterday, which echoed the strength we’d seen in some of the other prints, including the ISMs and nonfarm payrolls that had both surprised to the upside in the last couple of weeks. Headline retail sales posted their biggest gain since March, with a +1.7% advance (vs. +1.4% expected), whilst the measure excluding autos and gas stations was also up by a stronger-than-expected +1.4% (vs. +0.7% expected). Then we had the industrial production numbers, which showed a +1.6% gain in October (vs. +0.9% expected), though it’s worth noting around half of that increase was a recovery from Hurricane Ida’s effects. And that came against the backdrop of solid earnings results from Walmart and Home Depot as well earlier in the session. They saw Walmart raise their full-year guidance for adjusted EPS to around $6.40, up from $6.20-$6.35 previously, whilst Home Depot reported comparable sales that were up +6.1%. To be honest it was difficult to find much in the way of weak data, with the NAHB’s housing market index for November up to a 6-month high of 83 (vs. 80 expected). Amidst the optimism however, concerns about near-term (and longer-term) inflation pressures haven’t gone away just yet, and the 5yr US breakeven rose again, increasing +1.1bps yesterday to an all-time high of 3.21%. Bear in mind that just 12 days ago (before the upside CPI release) that measure stood at 2.89%, so we’ve seen a pretty sizeable shift in investor expectations in a very short space of time as they’ve reacted to the prospect inflation won’t be as transitory as previously believed. The increase was matched by a +1.3bps increase in nominal 5yr yields to a post-pandemic high of 1.27%. The 10yr yield also saw a slight gain of +1.9bps to close at 1.63%, and this morning is up a further +0.7bps. Against this backdrop, the dollar index (+0.58%) strengthened further to its highest level in over a year yesterday, though the reverse picture has seen the euro weaken beneath $1.13 this morning for the first time since July 2020. Speaking of inflation, there were fresh pressures on European natural gas prices yesterday, which surged by +17.81% to €94.19 per megawatt-hour. That’s their biggest move higher in over a month, and follows the decision from the German energy regulator to temporarily suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, adding further short-term uncertainty to the winter outlook. UK natural gas futures (+17.15%) witnessed a similar surge, and their US counterparts were also up +3.19%. Elsewhere in the energy complex, Brent crude (+0.46%) oil prices moved higher as well. Overnight in Asia, equity indices are trading lower this morning including the CSI (-0.05%), the Nikkei (-0.45%) and the Hang Seng (-0.55%), though the Shanghai Composite (+0.19%) has posted a modest advance. There were also some constructive discussions in the aftermath of the Biden-Xi summit the previous day, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying that the two had spoken about the need for nuclear “strategic stability” talks, which could offer the prospect of a further easing in tensions if they do come about. Looking forward, futures are indicating a muted start in US & Europe later on, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) and the DAX (-0.15%) pointing to modest declines. Elsewhere, markets are still awaiting some concrete news on who might be nominated as the next Fed Chair, though President Biden did say to reporters that an announcement would be coming “in about four days”, so investors will be paying close attention to any announcements. Senator Sherrod Brown, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, who earlier in the week noted a pick was imminent, followed up by proclaiming he was “certain” that the Senate would confirm either of Chair Powell or Governor Brainard. Staying on the US, as Congress waits for the Congressional Budget Office’s score on Biden’s social and climate spending bill, moderate Democratic Senator Manchin noted continued uncertainty about the bill’s anti-inflationary bona fides. Elsewhere, the impending debt ceiling has worked its way back into the spotlight, with Treasury Secretary Yellen saying that she’ll soon provide updates on how much cash the Treasury will have to pay the government’s bills. The market has started to price in at least some risk, with yields on Treasury bills maturing in mid-to-late December higher than neighbouring maturities, and the Washington Post’s Tony Romm tweeted yesterday that the new deadline that the Treasury was expected to share soon was on December 15. Turning to Germany, coalition negotiations are continuing between the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP, and yesterday saw SPD general secretary Lars Klingbeil state that “The goal is very clear, to have a completed coalition agreement in the next week”. We’ve heard similar comments from the Greens’ general secretary, Michael Kellner, who also said that “We aim to achieve a coalition agreement next week". One issue they’ll have to grapple with is the resurgence in Covid-19 cases there, and Chancellor Merkel and Vice Chancellor Scholz (who would become chancellor if agreement on a traffic-light coalition is reached) are set to have a video conference with regional leaders tomorrow on the issue. Staying on the pandemic, it’s been reported by the Washington Post that the Biden administration will announce this week that it plans to purchase 10 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid pill. The company will submit data for the pill to regulators before Thanksgiving. It’s not just the US that will benefit from Pfizer’s pill however, as the pharmaceutical company will also license generic, inexpensive versions of the pill to low- and middle-income countries, which should be a global boost in the fight against the virus. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the main release came from the UK employment numbers, which showed that the number of payrolled employees rose by +160k in October, whilst the unemployment rate in the three months to September fell to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected). That release was better than the Bank of England’s MPC had expected in their November projections, and sterling was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday (+0.06% vs. USD) as the statistics were seen strengthening the case for a December rate hike. In response to that, gilts underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr yields up +2.7bps. That contrasted with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps), OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-2.6bps), which all moved lower on the day. Interestingly, that divergence between bunds and treasury yields widened further yesterday, moving up to 188bps, the widest since late-April. To the day ahead now, and data releases include October data on UK and Canadian CPI, as well as US housing starts and building permits. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Mester, Waller, Daly, Evans and Bostic, and the BoE’s Mann. Finally, the ECB will be publishing their Financial Stability Review, and earnings releases today include Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s and Target. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/17/2021 - 07:50.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytNov 17th, 2021

Futures Rebound From Post-CPI Rout As China Property Stocks Soar

Futures Rebound From Post-CPI Rout As China Property Stocks Soar US futures rose and European bourses once again rebounded from overnight lows, this time after concerns that scorching US and Chinese CPI and PPI prints will prompt central banks to tighten much sooner than expected. The bounce was aided by a surge in Chinese property developers which booked their best two-day gain in six years, joined by a jump in technology stocks, as investors speculated Beijing may soften regulatory crackdowns on the two industries. At 730am S&P futures were up 16.75 ot 0.36 to 4,658.50, Dow Jones futs were up 40 points or 0.11% and Nasdaq futures were up 97.50 or 0.61%. The dollar index rose and cash Treasurys are closed today for Veterans day. Wednesday’s stronger-than-forecast data on U.S. consumer prices finally crushed the argument that inflation is transitory and weighed on the tech sector in particular as Treasury yields spiked. Tesla shares rose 5% in premarket trading following filings that showed Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk sold $5 billion in stock in the electric-vehicle maker a few days after the shares hit a record high. Disney dropped 4.8% in premarket trading to lead declines among Dow components after reporting the smallest rise in Disney+ subscriptions since the service's launch and posted downbeat profit at its theme park division. SoFi rose as much as 16% in premarket after Jefferies said the fintech’s third-quarter results were a “strong” beat. Amazon-backed electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive jumped 4.9%, adding to the nearly 30% gain on its blockbuster trading debut. Chinese tech stocks got some comfort from a report that ride-hailing company Didi Global Inc. is getting ready to relaunch its apps in China by the end of the year as an investigation wraps up. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares plunged 20% in premarket after the maker of plant-based meats released a disappointing sales projection for 4Q. Fossil (FOSL US) jumped 33% premarket after the accessory maker boosted its net sales forecast for the full year. Bumble (BMBL US) the dating app that lets women make the first move, reported earnings in the third quarter that missed analysts’ estimates. The shares fell 7% premarket. Disney (DIS US) shares fall as much as 5.3% in premarket, with analysts flagging softness in its Disney+ subscribers and net income in its fiscal fourth quarter. Rivian (RIVN US) jumps 8% in premarket after the electric truck maker soared in its trading debut on Wednesday. Didi (DIDI US) gains 4% in premarket after Reuters reported that the company is preparing to reintroduce its apps in China by the end of the year as regulators wrap up their investigations into the ride- hailing giant. Marqeta (MQ US) gains 17% premarket, with analysts saying the payments platform delivered a strong beat-and-raise report for 3Q. SoFi Technologies (SOFI US) rises 15% premarket with Jefferies saying the fintech’s 3Q results are a “strong” beat. Figs (FIGS US) shares sank 14% in postmarket trading on Wednesday, after the seller of scrubs for health-care workers reported a third-quarter profit in line with analysts’ estimates. Oscar Health (OSCR US) fell 10% postmarket Wednesday after the upstart health insurer projected a deeper adjusted Ebitda loss for the full year. Payoneer Global (PAYO US), the payment solutions company, gained 8% premarket after its full- year revenue forecast beat the average analyst estimate. Wish (WISH US) fell 2% after the e-commerce services company posted an Ebitda loss for the fourth quarter Despite today's mini relief rally, investors are bracing for tighter monetary policy sooner rather than later, after Wednesday’s stronger-than-forecast data on U.S. consumer prices dealt a blow to the argument that inflation is transitory. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the European Central Bank could stop buying bonds as early as next September if inflation looks to have sustainably returned to the official target, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said. “This is the perfect time to gravitate toward defensive plays, to take profit and to be in the sectors that are strategically positioned toward this volatile market that presents a lot of challenges,” Katerina Simonetti, senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. Market participants were also watching developments around the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair, with President Joe Biden still weighing whether to keep Jerome Powell for a second term or elevate Fed Governor Lael Brainard to the post In Europe, equities pushed into the green after a muted start, with the Stoxx 600 Index up 0.1% while the Euro Stoxx 50 is little changed as France's CAC outperformed and the U.K.’s exporter-heavy FTSE 100 Index rose as the pound held near an 11-month low after better-than-expected economic growth data. Basic resources, construction and banking names are the strongest sectors; travel and oil & gas the notable laggards. The Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources sub-index rose as much as 2.9%, the most in about a month, as iron ore rebounds and other metals rise. Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP, Glencore and Norsk Hydro among those leading gains by index points.ArcelorMittal also rallied after 3Q results. Miners are outperforming gains on the Stoxx Europe 600, which is up 0.2%. Iron ore’s rout halted as expectations build for an easing of the real-estate turmoil in China that’s battered demand, while aluminum jumped as supplies of the metal tighten. And speaking of Europe, ECB-dated OIS rates now price ~20bps of hikes by end-2022 as STIRs globally wrestle with the latest hot inflation prints. Here are some of the biggest European movers this morning: Auto Trader jumped as much as 15% to a record high, with Jefferies saying its new guidance should drive mid-single-digit upgrades to consensus estimates for the online car listings platform. Sika shares surge as much as 12% following the acquisition of construction chemicals peer MBCC, with Baader, Vontobel and Morgan Stanley all positive on the deal. ArcelorMittal shares rise as much as 4.4% after the steelmaker’s results, with Citi saying the update has a positive tone despite the numbers missing estimates. Siemens shares rise as much as 2.8% with analysts saying the German industrial group’s update was encouraging, with its dividend among the main positives. Johnson Matthey shares plummet as much as 20% after the company warned on its current trading and said it will exit its battery business. Burberry shares slump as much as 10% after the luxury goods company’s comparable store sales missed market expectations, with analysts saying consensus estimates are likely to remain unchanged, and the focus will be on the upcoming management change. Earlier in the session, Asia’s regional benchmark declined, on track for a third day of losses, after monthly U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace since 1990, raising concerns over costs and monetary policy moves. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6%, before paring most of the losses, with several tech hardware stocks weighing on the benchmark and Tencent the biggest drag after its 3Q revenue missed analyst estimates. Still, the Hang Seng Tech Index ended the day higher after Reuters reported that Didi Global is getting ready to relaunch apps in China by the end of the year. Investors have been cautiously eyeing inflation data as the next market catalyst amid the ongoing pandemic. China helped lead Asian stocks lower Wednesday after reporting a spike in producer prices. “The inflation number spoke to scope for greater and longer-lasting tightening, which understandably hurt the tech sector,” said Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX. “The vulnerability there is to longer-term financing, because near-term is pretty well locked in for the most part,” he said. India, Taiwan and the Philippines posted the steepest declines Thursday, while Australian equities slid after unemployment unexpectedly jumped in October. China was the top performer as property developers rallied, while Japan’s benchmarks posted their first rise in five sessions as the yen weakened.  Japanese equities rose, rebounding after after a four-day loss, as electronics and auto makers climbed while the yen weakened. Trading houses and machinery makers were also among the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 0.3%. Fanuc and SoftBank Group were the biggest contributors to a 0.6% gain in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended its 0.9% overnight loss against the dollar. Tokyo shares fluctuated in early trading after U.S. stocks fell by the most in a month and Treasury yields spiked. Labor Department data showed consumer prices rose last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to end near-zero interest rates sooner than expected “Investors had been selling value stocks and buying up growth stocks, but now that’s being reversed,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. Going forward “the environment will be a favorable one for Japanese equities,” he said, noting the local market’s underperformance against global peers. In rates, Treasury futures are mixed with a curve-flattening bent, remaining near low end of Wednesday’s range, when above-estimate CPI and poor 30-year bond auction caused a selloff across the curve. As noted above, the Cash Treasuries market is closed Thursday for Veteran’s Day. Treasury 10-year yields closed Wednesday at 1.549%, nearly 10bp higher on the day; EGBs and gilts are slightly richer on the day out to the 10-year sector, while curves are mildly steeper. Wednesday’s price action in the U.S. sent ripples through European markets, which now price 20bps of ECB rate hikes in December 2022 for the first time since the start of the month.  Euribor futures add 4-6 ticks in red and green packs. Bunds and gilts bear steepen gently. Peripheral spreads widen at the margin. Short end Italy underperforms despite a decent reception at today’s auctions. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached its strongest level in a year and the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers, with the biggest losses seen among some commodity currencies. Cable inched lower to trade below $1.34 for the first time since December 2020. The U.K. economy grew more strongly than expected in September after a surge in service industries and construction. GDP rose 0.6% from August, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday. That was quicker than the 0.4% pace anticipated by economists. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst G-10 performers; Aussie fell and Australian sovereign yields trimmed an opening spike after the nation’s jobless rate jumped to 5.2%. The initial move was in line with Treasuries, which plunged after U.S. inflation came in at the hottest since 1990. In commodities, crude futures fade a pop higher after quiet Asian trade; WTI is little changed near $81.20, Brent stalls below $83. Spot gold rises back toward Wednesday’s best levels, trading near $1,860/oz. Base metals are in the green with LME aluminum outperforming To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the UK’s preliminary Q3 GDP reading. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin, and speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf, Schnabel and Hernandez de Cos, along with the BoE’s Mann. Otherwise, the European Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts, and it’s the Veterans’ Day Holiday in the United States. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,658.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 484.44 MXAP little changed at 197.72 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 647.07 Nikkei up 0.6% to 29,277.86 Topix up 0.3% to 2,014.30 Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 25,247.99 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,532.79 Sensex down 0.8% to 59,898.81 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,381.95 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,924.92 Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,862.18 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.19% to 95.03 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.24% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1461 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $83.18/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Central Bank could stop buying bonds as early as next September if inflation looks to have sustainably returned to the official target, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said China’s efforts to limit fallout from China Evergrande Group’s crisis are gathering steam. A series of articles published in state media in the past few days signal support measures are on the way to help developers tap debt markets, potentially easing a liquidity crunch that began with Evergrande’s meltdown five months ago Customers of international clearing firm Clearstream received overdue interest payments on three dollar bonds issued by Evergrande, a spokesperson for Clearstream said A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as positive Chinese developer headlines including news of Evergrande payments, helped the region partially shrug off the losses seen stateside where duration sensitive stocks underperformed as yields surged following a hot CPI print and a soft 30yr auction. ASX 200 (-0.6%) declined with the index led lower by tech and energy which followed suit to the heavy losses in their US counterparts and with disappointing jobs data adding to the headwinds. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) coat-tailed on the advances in USD/JPY which briefly climbed above the 114.00 level and with a slew of earnings releases providing a catalyst for individual stock prices. Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were varied with notable strength in property names after Evergrande was reported to have paid the overdue interest on three bonds to avoid a default and with China said to be considering moderating property curbs to help troubled developers unload assets. In addition, the PBoC continued with its mild liquidity efforts and it was also reported that the Biden-Xi virtual meeting is tentatively scheduled for next Monday, although weakness in tech capped upside in the Hong Kong benchmark with shares in index heavyweight Tencent pressured post-earnings as the Beijing crackdown decelerated revenue growth to the slowest pace since the Co. listed in 2004. Finally, 10yr JGBs suffered spillover selling from global peers including T-notes which declined by a point to below 131.00 and with prices also hampered after a weak 30yr auction, while focus in Japan shifted to the enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated government bonds which printed a lower b/c although the highest accepted spread returned positive. Top Asian News Indonesian Stocks Close at Record High on Economic Rebound Signs of Easing as Delayed Bond Coupons Paid: Evergrande Update Asia Stocks Slip After U.S. Inflation Spike, Weak Tencent Sales Kaisa Tells Investors It May Not Make Coupon Payments: REDD European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) broadly trade mixed following on from this week’s firm inflation reports from the US and China. The handover from APAC was also mixed with focus on China amid notable strength in property names after Evergrande was reported to have paid the overdue interest on three bonds to avoid a default. Furthermore, the PBoC continued with its mild liquidity efforts and it was also reported that the Biden-Xi virtual meeting is tentatively scheduled for next Monday. Stateside, futures are a touch firmer (ES +0.2%) in the wake of yesterday’s cash market losses which saw duration sensitive stocks underperform as yields surged. From a macro perspective, Axios reported overnight that inflation concerns could see US Senator Manchin “punt” President Biden's Build Back Better agenda into next year. Eyes on the Wall St. open will be on Tesla after CEO Musk offloaded USD 5bln of stock in the Co. Back to Europe, Goldman Sachs outlook for 2022 sees a price target for the Stoxx 600 of 530 (vs. current 483) which would deliver a total return of around 13% and mark a continuation of the current bull market, albeit at a slower pace. Sectors in Europe are somewhat mixed with Basic Resources a clear outperformer amid broad strength in mining names and following earnings from ArcelorMittal (+2.9%) which sent the Co.’s shares to the top of the CAC. Banking names are also on a firmer footing amid the favourable yield environment post-CPI with Lloyds (+1.3%) and Commerzbank (+3.0%) supported by broker upgrades at Keefe Bruyette and Morgan Stanley respectively. To the downside, Oil & Gas names are softer as the crude complex struggles to recoup recent losses. Retail names have been weighed on by Burberry (-6.2%) post-earnings with the Co. noting that performance in Europe remains under pressure. Renault (-3.1%) sits at the foot of the CAC after Daimler opted to sell its stake in the Co. for USD 364mln. Finally, Johnson Matthey (-16.3%) is the clear laggard in the region after its CEO announced his decision to step down and the Co. announced it is to exit the battery materials business. Top European News U.K. Growth Data Leave December BOE Rate Rise in the Balance Scholz Aims to ‘Winter Proof’ Germany Against New Covid Wave Kering Says Creative Head Daniel Lee to Leave Bottega Veneta Gas Crunch Fuels RWE Profits as Energy Giant Burns Coal In FX, the Dollar took some time out for reflection and a rest after extending yesterday’s post-US CPI gains with the additional thrust of a supply-related ramp up in Treasury yields following a poor new long bond auction. However, the index could not quite muster enough bullish momentum to touch 95.000 until APAC buyers got a chance to respond to the strength of the inflation data and bear-steepening reaction in debt markets that evolved after initial bear-flattening. The DXY subsequently reset, refuelled and cleared the psychological barrier more convincingly, at 95.101 before fading again as several basket components found underlying bids and technical support around key levels, but still seems bid and upwardly mobile in thinner trading volumes due to Veteran’s Day. NZD/AUD - Perhaps perversely given overnight macro fundamentals, the Kiwi is lagging down under with Aud/Nzd cross elevated near 1.0400, though this could be in recognition of a sharp retreat in NZ food prices and mitigating factors leading to Aussie labour metrics missing consensus by some distance right across the board. Whatever the rationale, Nzd/Usd is lower than Aud/Usd in absolute terms even though the former is holding above 0.7100 and latter has now lost 0.7300+ status. CAD - Weaker WTI crude (in relative terms rather than on the day per se) is not helping the Loonie’s cause after it managed to contain losses on Wednesday, as Usd/Cad hovers near the top of a 1.2535-1.2473 range awaiting the BoC’s Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey tomorrow for further direction from a Canadian perspective. CHF/EUR/JPY/GBP - All giving up more ground to the Greenback, but to varying degrees with the Franc trying to keep sight of 0.9200, the Euro defend 1.1450 having closed below 1.1500 and a key Fib retracement just shy of the round number, the Yen stay within touching distance of 114.00 and Sterling stop the rot after letting go of the 1.3400 handle again. On that note, a late December 2020 low in Cable at 1.3361 remains intact ahead of 1.3350 for semi-sentimental reasons and then a deep channel trendline from 1.3330-20, while Usd/Jpy has scope to be drawn to decent option expiry interest at 113.70 (1.6 bn) if not similar size spanning 113.60-00. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy this morning with catalysts limited and conditions thinner than normal on account of Veteran’s Day. Price action thus far has seen the benchmarks print a range in excess of USD 1.00/bbl in a narrow timespan, note, that these parameters remain comfortably within yesterday’s levels; currently, both WTI and Brent are at the lower-end of this band as any initial attempt at a recovery has fizzled out with the USD likely a factor. While newsflow directly for the complex has been sparse attention remains on the monthly oil surveys, COVID-19 and geopolitics. Firstly, the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for release today and as a reminder the EIA STEO, under greater focus given US crude/SPR watch, raised 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by +60k BPD to 5.11mln BPD Y/Y increase this week, but cut its 2022 forecast by 130k BPD to 3.35mln BPD Y/Y increase. On COVID, the demand-side is attentive to increasing cases in areas such as Germany with the effective Chancellor-in-waiting Scholz saying further measures will be needed through Winter; additionally, the Netherlands outbreak team are recommending a short lockdown and Beijing has implemented various local measures. Finally, geopolitics is attentive to the situation in Belarus after Lukashenko said they will respond to any sanctions and has suggested closing gas and goods transit through the area. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver remain towards the top-end of yesterday’s parameters, but are only modestly firmer on the session, as newsflow has been slim and the USD’s more gradual upside and lack-of cash UST action is providing a respite from yesterday’s upside. Action that saw spot gold supported by almost USD 40/oz from opening levels. Elsewhere, ArcelorMittal’s earnings update featured a forecast for global steel demand to increase between 12-13% this year excluding China given a softening of real demand. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Nov. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 49.2 Central Banks Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday was one of those days to just go “wow” at. The headline YoY US CPI rate of 6.2% was the highest since the 6.3% in 1990, which means that unless you’re at least 50 this will be the highest US inflation print of your career. In fact, apart from 2 months in 1990 at 6.3%, you’d have to go back to 1982 to find a higher print. So you’d have to probably be at least 60 to remember anything like this in your work life, other than that brief spike in 1990. In more detail, for the 6th time in the last 8 months, the headline print came in above the consensus estimate on Bloomberg, with prices up by +0.9% on a month-on-month basis (vs. +0.6% expected). If you look at the reading to two decimal places, it was actually the strongest monthly inflation since July 2008, so hardly a sign that those pressures have been dimming as we move towards year end. We’ll go through some of the moves in more depth below, but markets didn’t react well to the prospect of a more inflationary future, with both bonds and equities moving lower as investors moved to price in earlier and a more rapid pace of future rate hikes by the Fed. A horrible 30 year auction 4.5 hours later cemented a big rise in yields on the day. Note US bond markets are closed today for Veterans Day. Equities remain open but trading will be thin. Just completing the inflation picture, the October price rise was a fairly broad-based one that included upward pressure across all the main categories, including components that are tied to more persistent inflation. Admittedly, a big driver was energy inflation (+4.8% on a monthly basis), but even if you stripped out the more volatile factors, core inflation was still up +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected), sending the annual core inflation measure up to its highest since 1991, at +4.6% (vs. +4.3% expected). There were also further signs of pressure from the housing categories, with owners’ equivalent rent (+0.44%) seeing its largest monthly increase since June 2006. This housing inflation is coming in bang on script (see page 19 of my 1970s chart book here). Medical care services (+0.49%) was also a big contributor to the upside surprise. The broad-based price gains drove trimmed mean and median CPI, measures of underlying trend inflation, to their highest levels since 1983. There’ll understandably be questions for the Fed off the back of this release, and markets responded by bringing forward their pricing of the first rate hike to the July 2022 meeting. In fact, by the close of trade, roughly an extra 13bps of hikes were priced in by end-2022 relative to the previous day. It’s also worth noting that the latest CPI release means that the real fed funds rate in October was beneath -6%, which is lower than at any point in the 1970s, where the bottom was -5% (see page 3 in the same 1970s chart book and draw the line down another few tenths of a basis point). So by this measure, monetary policy is even more accommodative now than it was back then, in a decade that saw inflation get progressively out of control. For more on those 1970s comparisons, take a look at our full note from last month (link here.) Treasuries understandably sold off, led by the front end and belly of the curve, as investors brought forward the likely timing of future rate hikes. 5yr Treasuries increased +13.5bps (the biggest one-day increase since February), and 10yrs +11.4bps (largest increase since September). The yield curve flattened, with 5s30s down -4.9bps to 68.5bps, the flattest since March 2020. Longer-dated yields were drifting higher through the New York session but accelerated after a 5.2bp tail in the 30yr Treasury auction. The tail was the highest since 2011, and primary dealer takedown was almost 2 standard deviations above average over the last year. Unlike after less-than-stellar auctions earlier this year, bonds stabilised for the rest of the day, with the 30yr +8.6 bps higher, only +1.7bps above pre-auction trading. After all, 30yr yields have rallied 26.0bps since early October, inclusive of today’s poor auction, as there has been some long-end duration demand. Indeed, even with the policy rate repricing, 5y5y rates, one proxy for long-run or terminal policy rates, remain below 2%, after increasing just +6.2bps. This is also manifest in record low real yields through the curve. 10yr real yields initially sunk to an all-time low intraday at -1.253% after the CPI print before ultimately increasing +3.0bps on the day to -1.17%. Likewise, 5yr real yields touched -1.97% in the aftermath of the CPI print, and closed the day +2.5bps higher than Tuesday’s close at -1.88%. With nominal yields outpacing real yields, inflation compensation increased across the curve: 5yr breakevens increased +11.1bps to 3.10%, an all-time high, whilst 10yr breakevens increased +6.4bps to a post-2006 high of 2.71%. Gold (+0.97%), and other precious metals, including silver (+1.37%) and platinum (+0.75%) gained, as did Bitcoin, which clipped another all-time high, $68,992, intraday. The dollar (+0.90%) also benefitted. The continued prevalence of high inflation is having increasing political ramifications, and President Biden put out a statement following the release, commenting on the inflation data (as well as the more positive weekly jobless claims). He said that reversing the trend in inflation was “a top priority for me” and laid a decent chunk of the blame at rising energy costs. He said that he’d directed the National Economic Council to look at further ways of reducing energy costs, and that he’d also “asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in this sector”. However, we also heard from moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who tweeted that “the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse. … DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.” Manchin is a key swing vote on Biden’s Build Back Better Plan, and he has already influenced cutting the bill from the $3.5tn initially envisaged to a framework half that size, due in part to the potential inflationary impact of additional spending. From the Fed however, the only signal we got came from San Francisco Fed President Daly (one of the most dovish FOMC members), who gave an interview with Bloomberg TV shortly following the CPI print. She notably referred to inflation as “eye-popping”, but demurred when asked about changing the course of Fed policy, asserting that it would be premature to “start changing our calculations about raising rates” or to accelerate the pace of tapering. Higher inflation and pricing of aggressive Fed tightening was not a good combination for US risk. The S&P 500 fell -0.82% in its second consecutive decline (which feels like its own record after the recent run), and was down more than a percent intraday. Energy (-2.97%) led the declines (more below) but, tech (-1.68%) and communication services (-1.25%) each declined more than a percent due to the increase in discount rates. Commensurate with the big rate selloff, the Nasdaq (-1.66%) also underperformed. Meanwhile, European equities outperformed, with the STOXX 600 up +0.22% to reach an all-time high, just as the DAX (+0.17%) and the CAC 40 (+0.03%) also hit new records. To be fair, US equities were only slightly down on the day when European bourses closed. Sovereign bonds echoed the US moves however, and a selloff across the continent saw yields on 10yr bunds (+4.9bps), OATs (+6.8bps) and BTPs (+9.5bps) all move higher. Stocks in Asia are trading mixed overnight with CSI (+0.89%) leading the pack, followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.59%), and the Nikkei (+0.56%) in the green while the Hang Seng (-0.16%) and KOSPI (-0.59%) have lost ground. Staying on inflation, Japan’s PPI for October came out at 8.0% year-on-year (7.0% consensus and 6.3% previous), the highest since 1981. Elsewhere, in Australia the unemployment rate for October saw a big surprise, jumping to 5.2% (4.9% consensus, 4.6% previous) as many people re-entered the labour force after lockdowns. The participation rate rose to 64.7% from 64.5% in September. Futures are indicating a muted start to the day in the US & Europe with S&P 500 futures (+0.08%) up but DAX futures (-0.28%) catching down with the late US sell-off. One solace on the inflation front was a decline in energy prices yesterday, with both Brent crude (-2.52%) and WTI (-3.34%) losing ground. That followed 3 consecutive gains and came after the US EIA reported that crude oil inventories had risen by +1.00m barrels last week. There was also another decline in natural gas prices, with US futures falling -1.99% in their 4th consecutive decline, whilst European futures were down -4.06%. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims for the US over the week through November 6 fell to 267k (vs. 260k expected). That’s their 6th successive weekly decline and takes the measure to a post-pandemic low. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the UK’s preliminary Q3 GDP reading. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin, and speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf, Schnabel and Hernandez de Cos, along with the BoE’s Mann. Otherwise, the European Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts, and it’s the Veterans’ Day Holiday in the United States. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/11/2021 - 07:48.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 11th, 2021

Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 Years

Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 Years For the third day in a row, early weakness in futures - in this case as a result of China's soaring, record producer price inflation - reversed and spoos rose from session lows but were still down on the session as traders awaited inflation data due later on Wednesday. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar and cryptos rose. At 7:45 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 47 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 10.25 points, or 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 68 points, or 0.42%. Earlier, China's Shanghai Composite fell as much as 1.7% and the Hang Seng dropped more than 1% after China’s factory inflation soared to a 26-year high. The number came just hours before today's US CPI print is expected to rise 5.8% in October, the highest level since since December 1990, after a 5.4% increase in the previous month. The report comes a day after producer prices data showed a solid rise in October and will be scrutinized for clues on the extent to which manufacturers were passing on higher costs to consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy Elevated inflationary pressures “would be the latest test for the Fed’s ‘transitory’ view and challenge the central bank’s stance on policy tightening,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, said in written comments. “The worry is that such stubborn inflationary pressures could choke the recovery in global demand or hasten policy tightening by major central banks.” On Tuesday, Wall Street's main indexes ended their long streak of record closing highs on Tuesday as Tesla tumbled and as investors booked profits from the recent run-up in gains, especially in the absence of market-moving catalysts. The declines on Wednesday came after data showed Chinese factory gate prices hit a 26-year high in October, while economic advisers to the German government said they expected the current rise in inflation to continue well into 2022. It has been a busy premarket trading session with lots of movers. We start with Coinbase which fell 11% as analysts said the crypto exchange’s quarterly results were well below expectations. DoorDash shares surged as analysts raised price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and purchase of Finnish food-delivery startup Wolt Enterprises Oy.  Here are some other premarket movers today: DoorDash (DASH US) shares surge 19% in U.S. premarket trading, with analysts raising their price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and its biggest ever acquisition Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. rise premarket after Tencent reported 3Q profit that exceeded expectations even as revenue missed amid China’s crackdown on the tech industry Tesla (TSLA US) shares inch higher 1.9% in premarket trading, set for a positive open after a 16% slump in two days amid several negative headlines for the stock Stran & Co. (STRN US) shares jump as much as 43% in U.S. premarket trading, recovering ground after a sharp drop following the branding solutions firm’s IPO Society Pass (SOPA US) shares drop as much as 54% in U.S. pre trading hours, after the loyalty tech platform had surged following its IPO in the prior session Upstart Holdings (UPST US) plunged 19% in U.S. premarket trading after the company released 3Q earnings and 4Q forecasts; Piper Sandler ascribes share drop to “elevated investor expectations” and lack of quantification of auto opportunity Poshmark (POSH US) shares sink 29% in U.S. premarket trading with Berenberg (buy) saying the online retail platform’s 3Q results and guidance were disappointing PubMatic (PUBM US) surges 22% in U.S. premarket trading after the company’s 4Q sales forecast topped expectations and it posted 3Q results that Jefferies called “impressive” FuboTV (FUBO US) shares drop 4.3% in U.S. premarket trading as a 3Q results beat for the “sports first” streaming-video platform was overshadowed by higher costs and some weakness on its ad revenue Purple Innovation (PRPL US) slumps 31% after it cut its net revenue forecast for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate RingCentral (RNG US) rises 22% premarket, a day after the provider of cloud-based communications services forecast 4Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate Toast (TOST US) slides after reporting financial results that included a net loss that widened compared with the same period last year Turning back to CPI, here is a lenghtier preview courtesy of DB's Jim Reid: I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialized would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure. Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core. Shifting back to markets, we next look at Europe, where equities also recovered off opening lows with the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX recovering to trade flat. FTSE 100 outperformed, rising as much as 0.6%. Sector gains in oil & gas, utilities and insurance names are broadly offset by losses in luxury, tech, household & personal goods and travel. Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a second day after data showed China’s monthly factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6% before paring its loss, with materials and IT the biggest drags. The CSI 300 Index slid as much as 1.9% before sharply paring its drop, after China’s producer and consumer price inflation numbers both exceeded forecasts. Commodity prices have soared globally this year amid expectations for a rebound from the pandemic, with energy getting a further boost from a supply crunch. Traders await Wednesday’s U.S. consumer-price report for further clues on monetary policy and economic growth. “Eyes are now closely watching inflation as that is the next market catalyst,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. For some Asian companies “the candle is burning on both ends -- with the supply chain crisis as a ceiling on revenues while obligations to expenses and liabilities remain.”  The Hang Seng turned higher in late trading as real estate developers climbed on a report that China’s bond-issuance policies may be loosened, while Tencent led a surge in tech stocks ahead of its earnings report. Vietnam and Taiwan showed small gains, while benchmarks in most other markets fell. Japanese equities fell, following Asian peers lower after China reported worse than expected inflation. Electronics makers and trading houses were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.5%. SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 0.6% drop in the Nikkei 225. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5%, while China’s CSI 300 Index tumbled 1.1% after monthly factory-gate prices in Asia’s largest economy grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. U.S. consumer price data is scheduled to be reported later Wednesday. “Asia is on inflation alert, fearing future costs of inputs from goods sourced from the mainland,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “It seems that investors are keen to lower exposure into the U.S. CPI data tonight.” Australian stocks ended lower for a third session as miners tumbled: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,423.90 after a volatile session. Miners were the worst performing industry group as iron ore prices dropped, with eight of the 11 subgauges closing lower.  Bluescope was the day’s biggest laggard after iron ore plunged to a fresh 18-month low as debt troubles in China’s real-estate market deal blow after blow to prospects for steel demand. United Malt advanced after a media report said the company could be a takeover target. Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe is anchoring his bet that he won’t need to raise interest rates until 2024 on a view that unemployment needs to be lower to spur wage gains. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,022.46. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback traded higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Canadian dollar. The euro extended an Asia session loss and traded firmly below the $1.16 handle. The pound slipped against a broadly stronger dollar, and edged higher versus the euro before a speech by the BOE’s Tenreyro; market is focused on the outlook for rate hikes and traders are also turning attention back to Brexit risks, with the European Union preparing a package of retaliatory measures in case the U.K. decides to suspend parts of a trade accord. Australia’s dollar fell to a one-month low as a slump in iron ore prices prompted short-term leveraged funds to cut long positions. The kiwi declined after a preliminary New Zealand business confidence index weakened In rates, Treasuries traded weak in the early U.S. session, following a selloff in gilts as U.K. markets start to price a higher terminal rate, bear-steepening the curve. Treasury yields are mostly cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve with 10-year around 1.475%; gilts lag by additional 1bp vs Treasuries while bunds outperform. During the Asian session, China’s CPI data beat expectations, adding to downside pressure in front eurodollars. Focal points for U.S. session include October CPI expected to show steep increase in y/y rate and final quarterly refunding auction, a $25b 30-year bond sale. Reduced-size U.S. refunding auctions conclude with $25b 30-year bond vs $27b in previous four; Tuesday’s 10- year sale tailed by 1.2bp after steep gains into the bidding deadline. Wednesday's WI 30-year yield around 1.85% is below 30-year stops since January and ~19bp richer than last month’s, which stopped 1.3bp below the WI level at the bidding deadline. In commodities, Crude futures drift lower: WTI drops 0.5% to trade near $83.70. Brent dips back below $85. Base metals are mixed. LME aluminum is the strongest performer; tin and lead are in negative territory. Spot gold drifts lower, losing $5 to trade near $1,826/oz To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,669.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 482.35 MXAP down 0.1% to 198.31 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 648.70 Nikkei down 0.6% to 29,106.78 Topix down 0.5% to 2,007.96 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,996.14 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,492.46 Sensex little changed at 60,399.20 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,423.90 Kospi down 1.1% to 2,930.17 Brent Futures little changed at $84.75/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,825.71 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.29% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1574 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 94.13 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Central Bank would risk exacerbating inequality if it were to raise interest rates before ceasing asset purchases, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinpingare are scheduled to hold a virtual summit next week, although no specific date has been set, according to people familiar with the matter A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports China’s inflation risks are building as producers pass on higher costs to consumers, reigniting a debate over whether the central bank has scope to ease monetary policy to support a weakening economy and potentially adding to the pressure on global consumer prices The U.K. opposition called for a parliamentary investigation into former Conservative cabinet minister Geoffrey Cox, as the scandal over sleaze and lobbying engulfing Boris Johnson’s ruling party gains momentum A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded negatively after a lacklustre handover from Wall Street where the major indices took a break from recent advances and the S&P 500 snapped an eight-day win streak ahead of looming US inflation data. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was rangebound with early strength in financials gradually offset by losses in the commodity-related sectors and with the improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment data doing little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was subdued with exporters pressured by unfavourable currency inflows and with the list of biggest movers in the index dominated by companies that recently announced their earnings, although Nissan and NTT Data Corp were among the success stories on improved results including a surprise return to quarterly profit for the automaker. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) initially underperformed amid ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande has reportedly failed to pay coupon payments at the end of its 30-day grace period. Rating agencies have also downgraded a couple of developers and Fantasia Holdings shares fell as much as 50% on resumption from a one-month trading halt after it missed bond payments due early last month. Furthermore, tensions continued to brew on the Taiwan Strait after US lawmakers made a surprise visit to Taiwan and with China conducting combat readiness patrols in the area ahead of a potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting that could occur next week, which potentially lifted sentiment, while participants also reflected on the firmer than expected inflation data from China which showed consumer prices registered their fastest increase in more than a year and factory gate prices rose at a fresh record pace. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid the lacklustre mood in stocks and presence of the BoJ in the market for over JPY 1.3tln of JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities, although gains were capped by resistance ahead of the 152.00 focal point and a pull-back in T-notes. Top Asian News China SOEs Suggest Govt Ease Debt Rules in Property M&A: Cailian Iron Ore Gloom Deepens as China Property Woes Threaten Demand Chinese Developers Surge on Report Bond Rules May be Eased Tencent’s ‘Other Gains’ Unexpectedly Double, Helping Profit Beat European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) have traded with little in the way of firm direction as a slew of earnings dictate the state of play amid a lack of fresh macro impulses. The handover from Asia was mostly a downbeat one with focus on firmer than expected CPI and PPI prints out of China and ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande bond holders have reportedly not received coupon payments by the end of today's Asia-close grace period, in reference to missed coupon payments totalling USD 148.1mln. Stateside, futures are a touch softer (ES -0.2%) after cash markets saw the S&P 500 snap its eight-day winning streak during yesterday’s session. Ahead, the main event for the US will be the CPI release at 13:30GMT whilst the earnings docket continues to slow down with Disney the main standout after-hours. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed with Oil & Gas outperforming peers alongside price action in the crude complex. Banking names saw initial gains trimmed after earnings from Credit Agricole (-1.1%) and ABN AMRO (+1.9%) were unable to provide sustained support for the sector despite the former exceeding profit expectations. The retail sector has been provided a boost by Marks & Spencer (+11.4%) after the Co. reported stellar earnings and raised guidance. Elsewhere in the UK, ITV (+12.0%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after printing solid revenue metrics and a bullish revenue outlook. To the downside, Personal and Household goods lag in the wake of earnings from Adidas (-6.0%) which saw the Co.’s performance hampered by factory closures in Vietnam and product boycotts in China. Finally, Alstom (+9.6%) sits at the top of the CAC post-earnings with the Co. stating that supply chain shortages had no material impact on H1 sales. Top European News ECB May Aid Rich If Rates Rise Before QE Ends, Schnabel Says Merkel Advisers Urge ECB Exit Strategy as Price Pressures Rise King Sinks Impala Plan to Create World’s No. 1 Platinum Firm Alstom’s Cash Drain Is Less Than Forecast; Shares Jump In FX, the Greenback remains relatively firm in the run up to US inflation data having turned a corner of sorts on Tuesday, with the index extending beyond 94.000 following its rebound from 93.872 and inching closer to the current 94.380 w-t-d peak, at 94.221, thus far. Interestingly, the Buck has regained momentum irrespective of the benign Treasury (and global) yield backdrop, softer than forecast elements in the PPI release and most Fed officials maintaining a distance between the end of tapering and tightening. However, risk sentiment if wavering to the benefit of the Dollar more than others and the aforementioned CPI readings may be supportive if in line or above consensus. Note, initial claims are also scheduled due to tomorrow’s Veteran’s Day holiday and the final leg of supply comes via Usd 25 bn long bonds. NZD/JPY - Ironically perhaps, the Kiwi is struggling to keep sight of 0.7100 vs its US peer on the very day that COVID-19 restrictions were eased in Auckland, and a further deterioration in NZ business sentiment alongside a fall in the activity outlook may be the catalyst, while the Yen has run into resistance again above 113.00 and is now relying on decent option expiry interest between the round number and 113.05 (1.1 bn) to keep its bull run going. GBP/EUR/AUD/CHF - All softer against the Greenback, as Cable hovers below 1.3550, the Euro pivots 1.1575, Aussie meanders within a range just above 0.7350 amidst favourable Aud/Nzd crossflows and an improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment, and the Franc treads water inside 0.9150-00 parameters. However, Eur/Usd appears to be underpinned by heavier option expiries on the downside than upside rather than ostensibly hawkish ECB promptings from Germany’s Government advisors given 2.1 bn between 1.1575-65 and a further 1.2 bn from 1.1555-50 vs 1.5 bn at the 1.1600 strike. CAD - The Loonie is outperforming or holding up better than other majors near 1.2400 vs its US rival even though WTI has backed off from best levels just shy of Usd 85/brl, but Usd/Cad could still be drawn to expiry interest starting at 1.2450 and stretching some way over 1.2500 in the absence of anything Canadian specific, and pending US inflation data of course. WTI and Brent have been somewhat choppy this morning, but remain within reach of overnight ranges and well within yesterday’s parameters as fresh newsflow has been light; a performance that is similar to the morning’s directionless equity trade. Focus has been on last nights/yesterday's events after the EIA’s STEO release seemingly lessened the likelihood of a SPR release followed by the weekly private inventory report, which printed a headline draw of 2.485M against the expected build of 2.1mln – reaction was minimal. Later today, we get the DoE equivalent for which expectations remain at a headline build of 2.13mln, but the components are expected to post draws of around 1mln. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are a touch softer on the session with the US Dollar and yields perhaps weighing, though the previous metals have once again not deviated too far from overnight parameters. On copper, prices were hampered by the Chinese inflation data though LME copper has staged a marginal recovery as the session has progressed. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. CPI YoY, est. 5.9%, prior 5.4%; CPI MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4% 8:30am: Oct. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2% 8:30am: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 269,000 8:30am: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 2.05m, prior 2.11m 8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.8% 8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -0.8% 10am: Sept. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior -1.1%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1% 2pm: Oct. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$179b, prior - $61.5b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After three days in hospital in traction, little Maisie has a 3-hour hip operation this morning. Showing one benefit of the pandemic, she had a zoom call with her class at school yesterday on their big screen where they all got to ask her questions. The best one apparently was one boy who put his hand up and said “will your new wheelchair have an engine?”. I was reading last night about people with Maisie’s condition (perthes) ending up playing international sport as an adult after a long recovery as a kid, including a Danish striker who played in the semi-finals of the Euros this summer and a 132kg American football player. As long as she waits a polite time after her long recovery to beat me at golf then I’ll be very happy. Keeping my mind off things today will undoubtedly be US CPI. Given my inflationary bias views I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialised would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure. Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core. Staying with inflation, China’s year-on-year numbers for October surprised on the upside overnight with CPI +1.5% (consensus +1.4%, last month +0.7%), the highest since September 2020. PPI +13.5% (consensus +12.3%) was also at a 26-year high. Asian stocks are trading lower with the KOSPI (-0.86%), Shanghai Composite (-1.20%), CSI (-1.40%), the Nikkei (-0.49%) and Hang Seng (-1.20%) all down after the China numbers. Futures are pointing to a weak start in the US & Europe too with S&P 500 futures (-0.4%) and DAX futures (-0.23%) both down. As investors look forward to today’s number, the long equity advance finally petered out yesterday as the S&P 500 (-0.35%) snapped a run of 8 successive gains. A 9th day in the green would have marked the longest winning streak since November 2004, but in the end it wasn’t to be.It also prevented an 18th up day out of the last 20 for the first time since September 1954.So reset your counters. Instead, we saw a broader risk-off move as equity indices moved lower on both sides of the Atlantic alongside a fresh rally and flattening in sovereign bond yields and curves. So the S&P 500 (-0.35%), the NASDAQ (-0.60%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.19%) all fell back from their record highs in the previous session although the equal weighted S&P 500 was almost flat (-0.03%) showing that there wasn’t huge breadth to the US weakness. Sector dispersion was tight in the US, with materials (+0.43%) among the leaders again along with the more typically defensive utilities sector (+0.44%). Financials (-0.55%) declined on the flatter curve story but it was discretionary stocks (-1.35%) that took the biggest hit, dragged down by Tesla declining a further -11.99% and now losing c.$200bn of market cap over two days or the equivalent of 8.5 times Ford’s market cap. The VIX index of volatility ticked up another +0.58pts to hit its highest level in nearly 4 weeks, but remains comfortably below the peaks reached during September’s 5% pullback in the S&P. By contrast, Bitcoin proved to be one of the few winners of yesterday as it increased to an all-time high of $67,734, although that was slightly down from its all-time intraday high of $68,513 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the question of the various Federal Reserve appointments has been occupying increasing attention and impacting bond markets, but in spite of the gossip there’s been no fresh news over the last 24 hours we didn’t already know. Earlier this week, Politico cited two sources with knowledge of the process saying that a decision would be made by Thanksgiving. But for those with longer memories, it was reported by Bloomberg back in August that people familiar with the process were saying that President Biden was likely to make his choice around Labor Day in early September, and over two months have passed since. So we’ll have to see what the real deadline is. Nevertheless, the news from late Monday night in the US that Fed Governor Brainard had been interviewed for the Fed Chair position helped support US Treasuries, thanks to the perception that Brainard would be a more dovish pick. Regardless of whether Powell or Brainard is Chair come this time next year, the Board will likely become more dovish as President Biden replaces outgoing Governors (and fills empty seats should he choose to do so). By the close of trade, 10yr yields were down -5.4bps to 1.44%, and the 30yr yield was down -6.4bps to 1.82%, which was its lowest closing level since mid-September. Another striking thing was that the moves lower in Treasury yields were entirely driven by a fresh decline in real yields, with the 10yr real yield down -7.0bps to -1.20%, marking its lowest closing level since TIPS began trading in 1997. Meanwhile, there was another round of curve flattening yesterday, with the 5s30s slope down -2.8bps to 73.5bps, which is the flattest it’s been since the initial market panic over the pandemic back in March 2020. For Europe it was a similar story as yields fell across the continent, and those on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps), OATs (-5.5bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all saw decent moves lower. Ahead of today’s CPI, investors had the PPI numbers to digest yesterday, though there was little market reaction to speak of as they came in almost entirely in line with the consensus. The monthly reading was up by +0.6% in October, which in turn saw the year-on-year measure remain at +8.6%, with both of those in line with expectations. The core measure did come in a touch below, at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected), but again that left the yoy reading at +6.8% as expected. One factor that may help on the inflation front over the coming months was a major decline in natural gas prices yesterday, with both European (-8.16%) and US (-8.26%) futures witnessing substantial declines. This wasn’t reflected elsewhere in the energy complex though, with WTI (+2.71%) and Brent crude (+1.62%) oil prices seeing a further rise following reports that the US would not need to release strategic reserves due to the demand outlook, and gold prices (+0.42%) closed at their highest levels since June. There wasn’t a massive amount of other data yesterday, though the ZEW survey from Germany for November saw the expectations reading unexpectedly rise to 31.7 (vs. 20.0 expected), which is the first increase after 5 consecutive monthly declines. However, the current situation measure did fall to 12.5 (vs. 18.3 expected). Finally out of the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October fell to a 7-month low of 98.2 (vs. 99.5 expected). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/10/2021 - 07:56.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 10th, 2021

I rode the famed Eurostar high-speed train between London and Paris and saw how it"s undeniably better than Amtrak"s Acela

Eurostar offered a premium experience that's unlike anything I've experienced on Amtrak, showing that America has a long way to go with high-speed rail. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Eurostar connects London with cities through mainland Europe in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. A train journey between London and Paris only takes a little more than two hours. America has fallen behind in high-speed rail with Amtrak's Acela pailing in comparison to services like Eurostar. Europe's expansive rail network has long surpassed America's in nearly every aspect, connecting cities across the continent with efficient downtown to downtown service unavailable to most Americans. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Multiple European countries have been working towards greater rail connectivity on the continent while Amtrak has dominated national rail travel in the US. American high-speed rail, as a result, has been limited to a handful of cities with no plans to expand it on a national level. Two European high-speed trains. REUTERS/Charles Platiau Here's why Amtrak isn't prioritizng high-speed rail beyond the Northeastern US.  America's first true foray into European-style high-speed rail came in 2000 with Amtrak's Acela Express, now known simply as Acela. Amtrak's Acela train. Kyodo News Stills via Getty Images But there's been little progress since then. Acela is the only high-speed line operated by Amtrak and takes passengers solely between New York, Boston, and Washington, DC, with stops in major cities in between. Amtrak's Acela train. AP Here's what riding Acela during the pandemic was like. New trainsets are scheduled to debut in 2022 but even still, journey times will only slightly improve as the winding train tracks that prohibit consistent high speeds will remain the same. Amtrak's new Acela trainset. Amtrak Here's how Amtrak is modernizing its Acela fleet. Eurostar, alternatively, connects London with mainland European cities as far south as Nice, France and as far east as Amsterdam, Netherlands. Its trains reach speeds of nearly 186 miles per hour, Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider I took Eurostar between London and Paris after taking three trips on Acela during the pandemic. Here's which one was better. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Eurostar's London-Paris route is arguably its most popular and well-known. The two capital cities are connected in just over two hours through the Channel Tunnel, also known as the Chunnel. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider A round-trip ticket for a Parisian day trip just a few days after the UK opened to French visitors cost $239. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Here's what it was like entering the UK after it opened to vaccinated tourists. Three classes of service are available including "standard," "standard premier," or "business premier," basically the equivalents of economy class, premium economy class, and business class, respectively, on an airplane. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider I booked standard premier class for the London to Paris leg as the upgrade fee was only $13, and standard for the return journey. The upgrade came with more spacious seats as well as a light meal and drinks served at the seat. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Acela, by comparison, only has two classes of service including business class and first class. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider But Acela's business class is more akin to a standard coach class as there are no added perks beyond a large recliner and having a ticket onboard the high-speed trail. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider I arrived at London's St. Pancras International Station around an hour before my Eurostar train's departure to Paris. This is where the process got complicated. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider I collected my ticket from a self-serve kiosk and headed to the departure area. The first step was completing a COVID-19 questionnaire required for travel to France. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Next came the security screening checkpoint which was similar to those found in airports. Amtrak trains, even those bound for foreign countries, do not require these types of screenings. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The security check was followed by a quick stop at the UK Border Force to scan my passport out of the country. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The final stage of the check-in process was clearing French passport control. A major benefit to taking Eurostar is clearing passport control in the departure country. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Once clear of the security formalities, passengers are directed to a seating lounge to wait before the platform is called. On Acela, it isn't uncommon to wait in the main hall of a station until the train is nearing the station. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider There was no shortage of seats in the departure lounge, as well as passengers that prefer to wait by the door to the platform. A small duty-free shop and cafe were also open for passengers. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Both Eurostar and Amtrak offer their top paying customers access to private lounges within stations, similar to premium airline lounges in airports. Eurostar "business premier class" ticket holders can access Eurostar lounges in Paris, Brussels, London, as well as partner lounges at stations in the Netherlands. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Holding a first class ticket also affords Acela riders into Amtrak's Metropolitan Lounges. New York City's new Moynihan Train Hall. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider The platform was opened to passengers 20 minutes before departure and up we went. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Eurostar's trains are massive with 16 cars in total on this trainset. Walking down to my car took quite a bit but I wanted to be closer to the front so I would have a shorter walk upon arrival in Paris. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Red carpeting quite literally guided the way into the standard premier car. There were fewer seats in this car that gave it a more exclusive feel with more space to stretch out. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider All Eurostar seats are reserved so there was no need to rush to find an open spot. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Amtrak, alternatively, just recently introduced reserved seating on all Acela trains. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider The seat map even shows which seats are obstructed by a window, and which offer a view. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The stylish chairs in standard premier are arranged in a 1-2 configuration, with the exception of the tables that offer two pairs of seats that face each other. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Each seat also has amenities including a personal reading lamp... Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider European and UK power outlets and USB charging ports... Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider And storage compartments under the armrests. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider It was exactly what I was expecting from European rail. The seat products looked so modern and clean on my journey that they seemed brand new. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Even standard class has stylish seats arranged in a 2-2 configuration, with table seats spread throughout the car. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Those seats similarly have European and UK power outlets and tray tables. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Acela, by comparison, has a tired interior of blue leather recliners in business class. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider Amtrak has not given Acela the same upgrades that its long-distance trains are currently receiving. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider Here's how Amtrak is upgrading the seating on its long-distance trains.  Our 8:01 a.m. train departed from London on-time and quickly advanced through the city's tunnels bound for the Chunnel. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Eurostar's Siemens British Rail Class 374 trains, also known as the E320, have a top speed of 186 miles per hour. And I could feel that speed as we soared through the countryside. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Acela's Bombardier/Alstom trainsets are limited to 150 miles per hour, which it can only achieve on straight stretches of track north of New York City. Darren McCollester/Getty Images Complimentary WiFi was available throughout the entire journey, even in the Chunnel. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider A light meal was included in the price of my standard premier ticket and it consisted of a croissant, bread roll, yogurt, water, and a selection of coffee and tea for breakfast. It was tasty and I couldn't argue with the value since I only paid $13 for the upgrade. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The one downside was that the silverware still had crumbs on it after it had been cleaned. It was the first thing I noticed after taking the fork, knife, and spoon out of its packaging. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Those in standard class have the option of visiting the cafe car, called "Cafe Metropole," or bringing snacks onboard the train. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The menu is reasonably priced but I could see just as well not having to eat anything since the journey is so short. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Meals on Acela are only served in first class, which is often a substantial buy-up from standard business class. But snacks and drinks can be purchased in Acela's cafe car Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider There isn't much by way of entertainment on Eurostar beyond the WiFi and overhead screens that gave fun facts about things like how deep the Chunnel is. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Acela similarly offers free WiFi but entertainment is limited beyond that. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider Signage onboard the Acela is also more reminiscent of a New York City subway car than it is a premium travel product. Riding Amtrak during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Business Insider The experience on Eurostar did feel quite premium, more so than I've ever felt on Acela. This was a train ride worth dressing up for. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Arriving in Paris, we had made the roughly 200-mile journey in two hours and 16 minutes flat. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Not even Acela's non-stop service between New York City and Washington could beat that time, even though the cities are roughly the same distance apart. Passengers exit an Amtrak Acela train from New York Penn Station as it arrives on a platform at South Station train and bus station, on August 7, 2012 in Boston, Massachusetts.() Photo by Ann Hermes/The Christian Science Monitor via Getty Images If I had to choose between taking Acela or Eurostar with all other things being equal, I wouldn't hesitate to choose Eurostar. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider The major downside to Eurostar is that extra security checks are required for those traveling between the UK and mainland Europe. I made sure to arrive extra early for each Eurostar journey whereas, on Acela, I can get to the station just a few minutes before departure and have time to spare. Taking Eurostar between London, UK and Paris, France. Thomas Pallini/Insider Intra-European Union train lines don't have the same hassle and are arguably as easy to take as Acela. A European high-speed train. Pool/Getty Images But I can't fault Eurostar for international travel requirements. And what its train services lacks in convenience in that aspect, they make up for in incredibly fast and stylish journeys. A Eurostar E320 trainset. Digital News Agency Acela will see improvements when its new Aveila Liberty trainsets arrive. New seating will replace the tired blue leather... Amtrak's new Acela trainset. Amtrak And the cafe car will be modernized with digital menus. Amtrak's new Acela trainset. Amtrak Every seat will also have power outlets, USB charging ports, and adjustable reading lights. Amtrak's new Acela trainset. Amtrak So while Amtrak may never fully catch up to Eurostar in all aspects, Americans will soon get a high-speed upgrade to help bridge the gap. Amtrak's new Acela trainset. Amtrak Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 1st, 2021

Futures Meltup To New All Time High As November Begins With A Bang

Futures Meltup To New All Time High As November Begins With A Bang US futures and European stocks rose to a new record high to start the historically stellar month of November... ... and Asian markets jumped amid positive earnings surprises and as concerns of a global stagflation and central bank policy error faded for a few hours (they will return shortly). TSLA melted up by another $35BN in market cap "because gamma." S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4% after the cash index posted the biggest monthly gain since last November. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the continuing recovery from the pandemic, helping spur gains in equity markets. Health-care shares rallied in Europe. The dollar and Treasury yields advanced as investors awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to announce the start of tapering (which will then lead to rate hikes next July according to Goldman). Oil rebounded on fresh supply concerns. In addition to the now absolutely batshit insane meltup in Tesla, which won't end until the SEC cracks down on gamma squeeze manipulation, other mega-cap technology stocks such as Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.and Apple, aka oddly enough GAMMA, traded mixed. Exxon and Chevron added about 0.7% each as JP Morgan raised its price target on the oil majors following their strong quarterly results last week. Major Wall Street banks gained between 0.2% and 0.8%. The broader S&P 500 financials sector slipped last week, breaking a three-week winning streak. Lucid Group Inc. rose 4.8% in premarket, extending its advance from last week, after the new U.S. tax plan included a proposal to make EV tax credits more widely available. Harley-Davidson Inc jumped 8.2% after the European Union removed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products including whiskey, power boats and company’s motorcycles. Here are the most notable pre-market movers: Tesla shares rise 2.3% in U.S. premarket trading after their biggest monthly gain in almost a year in October ABVC BioPharma jumps more than 700% as thelittle known biotechnology company garners attention from retail traders on social media Ocugen and Zosano (ZSAN US) are some other top gainers among retail trader stocks in premarket A largely upbeat earnings season has helped investors look past a mixed-macro economic picture, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq recording their best monthly performance since November 2020 in October. Of the 279 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, 87% have met or exceeded estimates. Among members of Europe’s Stoxx 600 index, 68% surpassed expectations. On the economic data front, readings on October factory activity data from IHS Markit and ISM are due after market open, followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. Focus is now on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which concludes at 2pm on Nov 3, where the central bank will announce the tapering of its $120 billion monthly bond buying program by $15 billion. With recent U.S. data showing inflation pressures building, the market has also started pricing in rate hikes next year. November and December tend to be among the strongest months for stocks and any hawkish tilt in the Fed’s message could catch equities by surprise.  Meanwhile, Biden’s economic agenda seemed to be on track as Democratic lawmakers worked to overcome their differences on a $1.75 trillion social-spending plan. “Depending on where you are looking, you are getting very different stories on the outlook for global markets,” Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “If you look at equities and the rally you are seeing, you think everything is OK. If you look at the bond market and how yields are moving, there’s obviously a lot more concern around inflation and policy normalization.” European stocks hit the afterburner out of the gate with the Euro Stoxx 50 adding as much as 1% before drifting off best levels. FTSE MIB and IBEX outperform, FTSE 100 lags slightly. Banks, construction and travel are the strongest sectors; tech the sole Stoxx 600 sector in the red. Barclays Plc fell 1.5%. Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley stepped down amid a U.K. regulatory probe into how he characterized his ties to the financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Asian stocks were poised to snap a three-day decline thanks to a rally in Japanese equities, which got a boost from an election victory for the country’s ruling party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.6%, while Japan’s benchmark Topix and the blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average each added more than 2%. Sony Group, Toyota Motor and Tokyo Electron were among the single-largest contributors to the regional measure’s rise. By sector, industrials and information-technology companies provided the biggest boosts.  Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party defied worst-case scenarios to secure a majority by itself in a closely-watched election Sunday. Analysts said the outcome signals political stability, paving the way for economic stimulus to be executed as anticipated (see Street Wrap).  “Indicators of market activity show that there will be a positive market impact to the election, as although it was not greatly different than expectations, the LDP clearly surpassed some of the more dire polls of last week and there will not likely be any party shake-up in the intermediate-term,” John Vail, Tokyo-based chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management wrote in a note.  The market is also “reacting positively” to Friday’s share-price gains in the U.S., Vail said. Futures on the S&P 500 rose during Asian trading hours after the underlying gauge added 0.2%.  Asia’s regional benchmark capped a weekly drop of 1.5%, its worst such performance since early October, as disappointing results weighed on big technology stocks. More than half of the companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have reported results for the latest quarter with about 37% posting a positive surprise, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to 7,370.80, recouping some losses after Friday’s 1.4% plunge. Health and consumer discretionary stocks contributed the most to the benchmark’s gain. WiseTech was among the top performers, snapping a four-day losing streak. Westpac was the worst performer after the bank delivered a smaller share buyback than some had expected. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,030.31. In rates, fixed income trades heavy with gilts leading the long end weakness. Treasuries were slightly cheaper on the long-end of the curve as S&P 500 futures exceed last week’s record highs. Yields are cheaper by 2bp to 2.5bp from belly out to long-end, with front-end slightly outperforming and steepening 2s10s spread by 1.7bp; 10-year yields around 1.58% with gilts underperforming by 1.1bp, Italian bonds by 3.5bp. Gilts and Italian bonds lag, with Bank of England rate decision due Thursday. In the U.S., weekly highlights include refunding announcement and FOMC Wednesday and Friday’s October jobs report. Bund and gilt curves bear steepen with gilts ~1bps cheaper to bunds. Peripheral spreads swing an early tightening to a broad widening to core with Italy the weakest performer. Overnight futures and options flows included block seller in 5-year note futures (3,900 at 3:09am ET) and a buyer of TY Week 1 129.00 puts at 3 on 10,000, says London trader. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index held a narrow range. SEK and CHF top the G-10 score board, GBP lags with cable snapping below 1.3650. TRY outperforms EMFX peers. The BBDXY inched up and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, with many of the risk-sensitive currencies leading gains The pound retraced some losses against the dollar, after dipping earlier in the European session. The yield on 2-year gilts hit the highest since May 2019. Financial markets are almost fully pricing in a 15-basis point increase in the Bank of England’s benchmark lending rate on Nov. 4, while economists increasingly share that view, even as they see the decision as a far closer call. A record share of U.K. businesses are expecting to increase prices, adding to the inflationary pressures confronting Bank of England policy makers ahead of their meeting on Thursday Australian bonds extended opening gains as traders positioned for the Reserve Bank’s policy decision Tuesday. The Aussie fell, tracking losses in iron ore prices following a weak China PMI, which showed signs of further weakness in October The yen fell for a second day after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party retained its outright majority in a lower-house election, reinforcing bets for fiscal stimulus and reforms. Hedge funds boosted net short positions on the yen to the most since January 2019, raising the risk of a squeeze should risk appetite deteriorate suddenly and demand for havens rise The Turkish lira edged higher after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had “positive” talks with U.S. President Joe Biden In commodities, crude futures drift higher. WTI adds 40c to trade near $84; Brent rises ~1% near $84.50. Spot gold is quiet near $1,786/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME nickel and tin outperform, zinc lags. Looking at today's calendar, earnings continue on Monday with PG&E and ON Semiconductor reporting pre-market, and NXP Semiconductors post-market. We also get the latest Mfg PMI print and the October Mfg ISM print. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,612.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 479.40 MXAP up 0.4% to 198.04 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 645.49 Nikkei up 2.6% to 29,647.08 Topix up 2.2% to 2,044.72 Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 25,154.32 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,544.48 Sensex up 1.3% to 60,079.40 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,370.78 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,978.94 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,783.20 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.14 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.091% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1571 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg House Democratic leaders are pushing hard to get Biden’s package finalized, with votes on both that bill and a smaller infrastructure plan this week -- the latest in a string of self- imposed deadlines. The Senate, which already approved the public-works bill, is likely to vote on the larger package later in the month Leaders of the Group of 20 countries agreed on a climate deal that fell well short of what some nations were pushing for, leaving it to negotiators at the COP26 summit in Glasgow this week to try to achieve a breakthrough The U.K. said it will trigger legal action against France within 48 hours unless a dispute over post-Brexit fishing rights is resolved, as the growing spat threatens to overshadow the United Nations’ climate summit Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has taken “significant action” in the wake of revelations over the personal investments of U.S. central-bank policy makers; Yellen dismissed recent moves in the bond market that have signaled concern about monetary policy makers squelching economic growth, and expressed confidence in the continuing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic The U.S. and the European Union have reached a trade truce on steel and aluminum that will allow the allies to remove tariffs on more than $10 billion of their exports each year Asia-Pac bourses traded mostly higher amid tailwinds from last Friday's fresh record highs in the US where Wall St. topped off its best monthly performance YTD, but with some of the advances in the region capped as participants digested mixed Chinese PMI data and ahead of this week’s slew of key risk events including crucial central bank policy announcements from the RBA, BOE and FOMC, as well as the latest NFP jobs data. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was led higher by the consumer-related sectors amid a reopening play after Australia permitted fully vaccinated citizens to travel internationally again and with several M&A related headlines adding to the optimism including the Brookfield-led consortium acquisition of AusNet Services and Seven West Media’s takeover of Prime Media. Conversely, the largest weighted financials sector failed to join in on the spoils with Westpac shares heavily pressured following its FY results which fell short of analyst estimates despite more than doubling on its cash earnings. Nikkei 225 (+2.5%) was the biggest gainer with the index underpinned by favourable currency flows and following the general election in which the ruling LDP maintained a majority in the lower house although won fewer seats than previously for its slimmest majority since 2012, while the KOSPI (+0.4%) was kept afloat but with upside limited by slightly softer than expected trade data. Hang Seng (-1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases and following mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed analysts’ forecasts with the former at a second consecutive contraction, although Caixin Manufacturing PMI was more encouraging and topped market consensus. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially declined amid gains in stocks and recent pressure in T-notes due to rate hike bets with analysts at Goldman Sachs bringing forward their Fed rate hike calls to July 2022 from summer 2023 citing inflation concerns, although 10yr JGBS then recovered despite the mixed results from the 10yr JGB auction which showed a higher b/c amid lower accepted prices and wider tail in price. Top Asian News Japan’s Kishida Mulls Motegi for LDP Secretary General: Kyodo Home Sales Slump; Another Bond Deadline Looms: Evergrande Update Two Thirds of China’s Top Developers Breach a ‘Red Line’ on Debt Hedge Fund Quad Sells Memory Stocks Citing Demand Uncertainty European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) have kicked the week off on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 printing a fresh all-time-high. The handover from the APAC session was a largely constructive one with the Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) the best in class for the region amid favourable currency flows and the fallout from the Japanese general election which saw the ruling LDP party maintain a majority in the lower house. Elsewhere, performance for the Shanghai Composite (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.9%) was less impressive amid a slew of earnings releases and mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed analysts’ forecasts. US equity index futures are trading on a firmer footing (ES +0.5%) ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Friday’s NFP data. The latest reports from Washington suggest that House Democrats are hoping to pass the social spending and bipartisan infrastructure bills as soon as Tuesday. Back to Europe, a recent note from JPM stated that Q3 European earnings “are coming in well ahead of expectations in aggregate”, adding that results are healthy when considering the “trickier operating backdrop”. Sectors in the region are higher across the board with Auto names top of the leaderboard. Renault (+3.3%) sits at the top of the CAC 40 with the name potentially gaining some reprieve from agreement to resolve the US-EU steel and aluminium trade dispute (something which the Co. has previously noted as a negative). Also following the resolution, Thyssenkrupp (+2.8%) and Salzgitter (+4.5%) are both trading notably higher. Barclays (-2.0%) shares are seen lower after news that CEO Staley is to step down with immediate effect following the investigation into his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; Barclays' Global Head of Markets, Venkatakrishnan is to take over. UK homebuilders (Persimmon -2.1%, Taylor Wimpey -1.9%, Barratt Developments -1.9%, Berkeley Group -1.7%) are softer on the session amid concerns that the sector could fall victim to higher mortgage rates given the shape of the UK yield curve. Ryanair (+1%) shares are higher post-earnings which saw the Co. continue its recovery from the pandemic, albeit still expects a loss for the year. Furthermore, the board is considering the merits of retaining its standard listing on the LSE. Finally, BT (+4.2%) is the best performer in the Stoxx 600 ahead of earnings on Thursday with press reports suggesting that the Co. could announce that its GBP 1bln cost savings target will be met a year earlier than the guided March 2023. Top European News SIG Proposed Offering for EU300m Senior Secured Notes Due 2026 Delivery Hero’s Turkey Unit CEO Nevzat Aydin to Step Down Goldman Sachs Says ‘Lost Decade’ Is Looming for 60/40 Portfolios URW Sells Stake in Paris Triangle Tower Project to AXA IM Alts In FX, the Greenback is holding above 94.000 in index terms and gradually ground higher after pausing for breath and taking some time out following its rapid resurgence last Friday to eclipse the 94.302 month end best at 94.313 before waning again. Hawkish vibes going into the FOMC are underpinning the Dollar and helping to offset external factors that are less supportive, including ongoing strength in global stock markets on solid if not stellar Q3 earnings and economic recovery from COVID-19 lockdown or restricted levels. Hence, the DXY is keeping its head above the round number and outperforming most major peers within and beyond the basket, awaiting Markit’s final manufacturing PMI, the equivalent ISM and construction spending ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. JPY/AUD - Little sign of relief for the Yen from victory by Japan’s ruling LDP part at the weekend elections as the 261 seat majority secured is down from the previous 276 and the tightest winning margin since 2012. Moreover, Security General Amari lost his constituency and new PM Kishida concedes that this reflects the public’s adverse feelings towards the Government over the last 4 years. Usd/Jpy is eyeing 114.50 as a result and the Aussie is looking precarious around 0.7500 against the backdrop of weakness in commodity prices even though perceptions for the upcoming RBA have turned markedly towards the potential for YCT to be withdrawn following firm core inflation readings and no defence of the 0.1% April 2024 bond target. NZD/EUR/CHF/CAD/GBP - All narrowly mixed vs their US counterpart, and with the Kiwi also taking advantage of the aforementioned apprehension in the Aud via the cross, while the Euro has pared declines from just under 1.1550, but still looks top-heavy into 1.1600. Elsewhere, the Franc is pivoting 0.9160 and 1.0600 against the Euro with more attention on a rise in Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks as evidence of intervention than a fractionally softer than expected manufacturing PMI, the Loonie is keeping afloat of 1.2400 ahead of Markit’s Canadian manufacturing PMI and Sterling is striving to stay above 1.3600, but underperforming vs the Euro circa 0.8470 amidst the ongoing tiff between the UK and France over fishing rights. SCANDI/EM - Robust Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs plus broad risk appetite is underpinning the Sek and Nok, in contrast to the Cnh and Cny following disappointing official Chinese PMIs vs a more respectable Caixin print, but the EM laggard is the Zar in knock-on reaction to Gold’s fall from grace on Friday, increasingly bearish technical impulses and SA energy supply issues compounded by Eskom’s load-shedding. Conversely, the Try has pared some declines irrespective of a slowdown in Turkey’s manufacturing PMI as the CBRT conducted a second repo op for Lira 27 bn funds maturing on November 11 at 16%. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning with gains of between USD 0.50-1.00/bbl, this upside is in-spite of a lack of fundamental newsflow explicitly for the complex and is seemingly derived from broader risk sentiment, as mentioned above. Nonetheless, Energy Ministers are beginning to give commentary ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ event and so far Angola, Kuwait and Iraq officials have voiced their support for the planned 400k BPD hike to production in December. This reiteration of existing plans is in opposition from calls from non-OPEC members such as the US and Japan that the group should look to increase production quicker than planned, in a bid to quell rising prices. Separately, Saudi Aramco reported Q3 earnings over the weekend in which its net profit doubled given strong crude prices and sales volumes improving by 12% QQ; subsequently, some analysts have highlighted the possibility for a end-2021 special dividend. Elsewhere, base metals are mixed and fairly contained in-spite of the EU and US announcing an agreement to resolve the ongoing aluminium and steel trade dispute. While spot gold and silver are modestly firmer this morning as the yellow metal remains contained after its slip from the USD 1800/oz mark in the tail-end of last week. Currently, spot gold is pivoting its 100-DMA at USD 1786 with the 50- and 200-DMAs residing either side at USD 1780/oz and USD 1791/oz respectively. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Oct. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.2, prior 59.2 10am: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 60.5, prior 61.1 10am: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to November. I had three halloween parties over the weekend which is probably more than the entire number I went to before I had kids. I still have some spooky make up on this morning that I just couldn’t get off from last night. So there’s a reason alone to zoom into the call at 3pm today. As it’s the 1st of November Henry is about to publish our monthly performance review. It was a hectic month of higher inflation expectations and commodities, and also the best S&P 500 month of the year. Bonds underperformed across the board but these small negatives masked great volatility and stress under the surface, especially in the last week. See the report that should be out in the next 30-60mins. With all due respect to our readers in Australia, I’m going to open the market section this morning with a line I don’t think I’ve written in 27 years of market commentary and probably won’t again. And it’s not about England thrashing Australia at cricket on Saturday. Yes the most important event of the week could be the RBA meeting tomorrow. 2 year yields last week rose from 0.15% on Wednesday morning to 0.775% at the close on Friday as the RBA were conspicuous by their absence in defending the 0.1% target on the April 24 bond. I’ve absolutely zero idea what they are going to do tomorrow which should help you all tremendously but their absence again this morning gives a decent indication. I was taught economics in an era where central banks liked to keep an element of mystery and surprise. As such I’ve always disliked the forward guidance era as it encourages markets to pile on to much riskier, one way positions that a normally functioning market should naturally allow. But to go from forward guidance to silence (that rhymes) is a recipe for huge market turmoil if the facts change. It's unclear if the full implications of last week’s carnage at the global front end has yet been cleared out. There is lots of speculation about large unwinds, big stop losses etc. Liquidity was also awful last week. Much might depend on central banks this week. Make no mistake though there is considerable pain out there. The latest this morning in Aussie rates is that the 2y yield is down around -7bps while the 10y yield is down -19.0bps. So we wait with baited breath for tomorrow. Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei 225 (+2.42%) is charging ahead this morning as Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party kept its majority after lower house elections, thus boosting optimism about a potential fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.43%) and the Shanghai composite (+0.07%) are outperforming the Hang Seng (-1.10%). In terms of data, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 to 49.2 (49.7 expected), not helped by commodities price rises and electricity shortages. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 52.4 from 53.2 (consensus 53). The Caixin manufacturing PMI did beat at 50.6 this morning (consensus 50). In terms of virus developments in the region, Shanghai Disneyland is closed amid recent COVID outbreaks, while Singapore is adding ICU beds in response to high levels of serious cases. The S&P 500 mini futures is up +0.23% this morning, the US 10y Treasury is at 1.56% (+1.2bps). It’s strange to have a likely Fed taper announcement on Wednesday be third billing for the week but the BoE on Thursday might be the next most important meeting as it’s still a finely judged call as to whether they hike this week or not. DB (preview here) think they will raise rates by 15bps with two 25bps hikes in February and May. They’ll also end QE a month earlier than planned. So over to the third billing, namely the Fed. They will announce a well flagged taper on Wednesday. In line with recent guidance, DB expect that the Fed will announce monthly reductions of $10bn and $5bn of Treasury and MBS purchases, respectively. With the first cut to purchases coming mid-November, this will bring the latest round of QE to a conclusion in June 2022. The Fed has some flexibility with this timetable but it will be interesting to hear how much Powell pushes back on markets that price in two hikes in 2022, including one almost fully priced for before the taper ends. If markets attacked the Fed in the same way they have the RBA the global financial system would have a lot of issues so it’s a fine balance for the Fed. They won’t want to push back too aggressively on market pricing given the uncertainty but they won’t want an outright attack on forward guidance. Moving on, a lowly fourth billing will be reserved for US payrolls on Friday. DB expect the headline gain (+400k forecast, consensus +425k vs. +194k previously) to modestly outperform that of private payrolls (+350k vs. +317k) and for the unemployment rate to fall by a tenth to 4.7% and average hourly earnings to post another strong gain (+0.4% vs. +0.6%) amidst still-elevated hours worked (34.8hrs vs. 34.8hrs). Outside of all this excitement, we have the COP26 which will dominate all your news outlets. The other main data highlight are the global PMIs (today and Wednesday mostly) which will give insight into how the economic recovery has progressed in the first month of Q4 with the surveys shedding light onto how inflation is affecting suppliers. There is lots more in store for us this week but see the day by day calendar at the end for the full run down The market also enters the second half of the 3Q earnings season. There are 168 S&P 500 and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting this week with 52% of the S&P 500 and 48% of the STOXX 600 having already reported. DB’s Binky Chadha published an update on earnings season over the weekend (link here). In the US, the size of the earnings beat has declined over the course of the season and is on track to hit 7%, well below the record 14-20% range post pandemic. Excluding the lumpy loan-loss reserve releases by banks, the beat is even lower at 5%, bringing it back in line with the historical norm. Quarterly earnings are on track to be down sequentially from Q2 to Q3 by -1.1% (qoq seasonally adjusted), the first drop since Q2 2020. The flat to down read of earnings is broad based across sector groups. Forward consensus estimates have fallen outside of the Energy sector. The S&P 500 nevertheless has seen one of the strongest earning season rallies on record. See much more in Binky’s piece. This week’s highlights include NXP Semiconductors, Zoom, and Tata Motors today before Pfizer, T-Mobile, Estee Lauder, BP, Mondelez, Activision Blizzard, and AP Moller-Maersk tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, CVS, Marriott, Albemarle, and MGM resorts. Thursday sees reports from Toyota, Moderna, Square, Airbnb, Uber, and Deutsche Post and then a busy Friday with Alibaba Group, Dominion Energy, Honda, and Mitsubishi. Looking back now and reviewing last week in numbers, it was a week of heightened intraday volatility within rates, as markets brought forward the expected timing of central bank policy actions across advanced economies while revising down growth expectations. Position stop outs almost certainly played a role as the magnitude of the moves were out of sync with macro developments while FX and equity markets were not nearly as volatile. Global front end rates started moving in earnest on Wednesday, following the Bank of Canada’s surprise decision to end net asset purchases, while bringing forward the timing of liftoff, which sent 2yr Canadian bonds more than +20bps higher. In the following days, the RBA opted not to defend their yield curve control target, and ECB President Lagarde did not use her press conference to provide much of a forceful pushback on recent repricing. All told, almost every DM economy saw their 2 yr bond selloff, including the US (+4.4 bps, +0.8 bps Friday), UK (+4.9 bps, +5.9 bps Friday), Germany (+5.2 bps, +3.2 bps Friday), Canada (+23bps) and Australia (+65bps). The long end went the other direction in the core countries, with many curves twist flattening over the week as negative growth sentiment weighed on the back end. Nominal 10yr yields declined -6.2 bps (-2.8 bps Friday) in the US, -11.1 bps (+2.5 bps Friday) in the UK, and were flat in Germany (+3.0 bps Friday). Unlike the rest of October, the decline in nominal yields coincided with declining inflation breakevens (albeit from historically high levels), with 10yr breakevens declining -5.2 bps (-0.6 bps Friday) in the US, -25.4 bps (-8.5 bps Friday) in the UK, and -16.3 bps (-11.5 bps Friday) in Germany. Note that outside the core there were some bond markets that moved higher in yield with 10yr bonds in Canada (+7bps), Australia (+30bps) and Italy (+19bps) all higher for different reasons. Some of the bond moves above don’t do the intra-day volatility any justice though. Elsewhere Crude oil prices dipped to close out what was otherwise another very good month, with Brent and WTI -1.34% (+0.07% Friday) and -0.23% (+0.92% Friday) lower. Meanwhile, equity markets marched to the beat of a different drum. The S&P 500 (+1.33%, +0.19% Friday), Nasdaq (+2.71%, +0.33% Friday), and DJIA (+0.40%, +.25% Friday) all set new all-time highs, while the STOXX 600 increased +0.77% (+0.07% Friday), cents below the all-time high set in August. Generally strong earnings relative to a worried market prior to the season again supported equity markets. Calls were replete with mentions of supply chain woes and labour shortages though, but companies sounded an optimistic note on end-user demand. Many big tech stocks reported, to more mixed results than the broader index. Alphabet and Microsoft beat on both revenue and earnings, Facebook and Apple missed analyst revenue estimates, while Amazon and Twitter missed revenue and earnings estimates. Ford and Caterpillar, two bellwethers particularly exposed to current supply chain and labour maladies, fared especially well. So far this season 279 companies have reported, with 206 beating on revenue and 237 beating on earnings Out of D.C., after prolonged negotiations within the Democratic Party, US President Biden unveiled a new social and climate spending framework, containing $1.75 trillion in spending measures as well as revenue-raising offsets. Once the text is finalized, it should enable a vote on the social spending package as well as the separately-negotiated bi-partisan infrastructure bill. More is likely to come this week. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/01/2021 - 07:59.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 1st, 2021

3 Cheap Stocks to Buy Now for Big Upside in November

With this backdrop, investors might want to consider buying strong stocks that have yet to return to their previous highs. Today, we also focused on stocks trading for around $30 or less... The Nasdaq broke records Thursday amid strong quarterly showings from technology companies with outsized sway over the market. Wall Street looked beyond slower third quarter GDP growth to focus on positive signs as the economy heads into the heart of the holiday spending season.U.S. GDP grew by 2% last quarter, as the Delta variant dragged down spending and crushed global supply chains. The third quarter represented a substantial slowdown from Q2’s 6.7% growth and Q1’s 6.3%, driven by the massive economic reopening and continued government stimulus. The forward-facing markets have moved way beyond Q3 GDP setbacks, shifting the focus to the improving earnings picture and the solid outlook for S&P 500 margins going forward.On top of that, the U.S. economy is bouncing back in the early weeks of the fourth quarter. Fresh data showed that hotel occupancy hit its highest levels since mid-August in the middle of the month. Plus, reservations site OpenTable figures showed that the number of diners seated at restaurants was down only 5% for the week ended Oct. 27 compared to the same period prior to the pandemic in 2019.Persistent supply chain bottlenecks and rising prices remain. Despite the economic headwinds, U.S. consumer confidence increased in October, after three months of declines. American consumers are shaking off fears and still plan on spending big this season despite rising prices. “While short-term inflation concerns rose to a 13-year high, the impact on confidence was muted,” Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board Lynn Franco said in prepared remarks.“The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased in October. Likewise, nearly half of respondents (47.6%) said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months—the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.”The bulls have taken the helm once again, with all three major U.S. indexes breaking fresh records during the final week of October. Everyone from banking giants to tech firms have posted stronger-than-projected financial results, with many market-movers, including Microsoft MSFT, jumping to new highs after their releases (also read: A Very Strong and Improving Earnings Picture).On top of that, the overall S&P 500 earnings outlook for Q3 has surged in the last several weeks. Plus, interest rates will favor stocks for the foreseeable future, even when the Fed starts to lift its core rate. With this backdrop, investors might want to consider buying strong stocks that have yet to return to their previous highs. Today, we also focused on stocks that are trading for around $30 or less…Levi Strauss & Co. LEVI Levi returned to the public markets in 2019 and investors began to take notice of the iconic denim firm’s growth potential last year. The company’s core business remains jeans for men, women, and kids, and in the cyclical fashion world, denim could be on the cusp of a comeback to fight back against the athleisure wave.The economic reopening has already increased demand for jeans. The company’s Q3 results, which it reported in early October, showcased rebounding denim. Quarterly sales climbed 41% compared to the year-ago period and 3% vs. FY19, while its adjusted earnings surged to easily beat our EPS estimate—digital represented roughly 20% of revenue.Levi executives said on its earnings call that it’s in the midst of a resurgent denim cycle. Nonetheless, the company is diversifying far beyond jeans. CEO Chip Bergh has projected that half of Levi’s sales will come outside of denim bottoms over the next decade, up from just 11% in 2015 and 21% in 2020. Levi is selling clothing to help it compete against Lululemon LULU and other athleisure firms. And it bolstered its non-denim business with its late-September acquisition of Beyond Yoga.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks estimates call for Levi’s revenue to climb over 29% this year to reach its pre-pandemic total of $5.76 billion and then jump another 11% in FY22 to $6.39 billion. Its adjusted EPS are projected to soar 585% to $1.44 a share this year, with FY22 set to pop 5% higher. And analysts have raised their bottom-line estimates to help the stock grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now.Levi is part of the Retail-Apparel and Shoes space that’s in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries. This is a good sign heading into the holiday shopping season. Wall Street is high on the stock, with five of the six brokerage recommendations Zacks has sitting at “Strong Buys” with the other at a “Buy.” The company also boosted its buyback efforts and lifted its dividend payment to its pre-pandemic levels.Levi shares are up 60% in the last year to outpace its industry and the S&P 500’s 40%. The stock has pulled back from its May records and it currently trades 15% below its highs at around $26 a share, even as the market breaks new ground. Levi bounced above some key technical levels recently and it trades at a 30% discount to where it was six months at 17.1X forward earnings. Plus, the Zacks consensus price target of $34.60 a share marks 33% upside to Thursday’s closing price.Sonos SONOSonos is a home audio firm that specializes in wireless and multi-room sound systems. The company competes against Bose and others in the higher-end home speaker market. It sells a range of sleek, connected speakers, subwoofers, soundbars for TVs, and more. Its baseline speaker starts at $179 and packages cost up to $1,900. Earlier this year, Sonos entered the popular portable smart speaker space with its new $169 mass-market Roam speaker.The company has benefited from the larger shift to modern, connected devices and it’s poised to gain as more people spend on home-based upgrades. The firm is also expanding its non-speaker business, with an ad-free streaming tier of its music service dubbed Sonos Radio HD, which costs $7.99 a month and competes against Spotify SPOT, Apple Music AAPL, and various other music platforms.Sonos revenue climbed 11% in FY19 and 5% last year. Zacks estimates call for its 2021 (year ended October 2) sales to surge 29% to $1.71 billion, with FY22 projected to climb 11% higher. And it’s expected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.18 a share last year all the way to +$1.11 in FY21, with FY22 set to climb another 6% higher.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe firm’s strong management team helped it rip off four-straight huge quarterly earnings beats and its positive FY21 and FY22 EPS revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) right now. Sonos grabs an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system and its Audio Video Production space ranks in the top 10% of our 250 Zacks industries.Sonos struggled after its 2018 IPO, but it soared off the coronavirus lows, with its shares now up 110% in the last 12 months alone. It has cooled off a ton in the last six months to help set up a more enticing entry point. Sonos closed regular hours Thursday down around 25% from its April records at $32.01 a share. And its current Zacks consensus price target marks similar upside potential.Sonos does sit below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Luckily, some recent positivity helped it jump above oversold RSI levels (30 or under) to hover below neutral within this often-tracked technical range. Its valuation also appears far more attractive to help provide solid runway. Investors might want to take a chance on the high-end modern speaker firm at its current levels. Though, it is worth pointing out that it’s set to release its Q4 results on November 17.Callaway Golf Company ELYCallaway manufactures and sells high-end golf equipment and apparel. The firm that went public back in the early 1990s has expanded through acquisitions. Its portfolio now features multiple brands, including its namesake, Odyssey, upstart power TravisMathew, and others. Callaway’s biggest move was stepping outside of gear and apparel into the entertainment business when it closed its merger with fast-growing, high-tech driving range company Topgolf in March.The Topgolf purchase could prove to be a hit since the upscale driving range chain attracts tons of “non-golfers.” This is vital for a sport that struggles to grow its consumer base. Still, Callaway posted strong double-digit revenue growth in FY17-FY19, including 36% top-line expansion before the pandemic—FY20 sales did slip around 6%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks estimates call for Callaway's FY21 revenue to soar 94% from $1.6 billion to $3.1 billion, driven by Topgolf’s inclusion. ELY is then projected to follow up this expansion with another 18% growth in FY22. Its adjusted earnings are projected to slip this year and bounce back slightly in 2022. And its bottom-line outlook has continually improved recently to help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now.  Similar to its peers on this list, Callaway is part of a highly-ranked industry, with the Leisure and Recreation Products industry in the top 11% of over 250 Zacks industries. And Wall Street is even more bullish on the stock recently, with eight of the 10 brokerage recommendations Zacks has at “Strong Buys.”Despite the positives, Callaway closed regular trading Thursday 27% below its May highs at $26.93 a share. The current downturn began when it climbed above overbought RSI levels in late May. Investors still haven’t jumped back into the stock and they showed their displeasure for its secondary stock offering that was priced at $29.25 a share and closed on September 20.Callaway shares are still up 75% in the last year and now might be time to consider buying the beaten-down stock with its Q3 earnings in sight. The opportunity is even more appealing given that ELY’s current Zacks consensus price target of $39.10 marks 45% upside to where it trades at the moment. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential: Last years top IPOs surged as much as 299% within the first two months. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year could be even more lucrative. See Zacks’ Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Free Stock Analysis Report lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): Free Stock Analysis Report Sonos, Inc. (SONO): Free Stock Analysis Report Callaway Golf Company (ELY): Free Stock Analysis Report Spotify Technology (SPOT): Free Stock Analysis Report Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 29th, 2021

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report For the second day in a row, an overnight slump in equity futures sparked by concerns about iPhone sales (with Bloomberg reporting at the close on Tuesday that iPhone 13 production target may be cut by 10mm units due to chip shortages) and driven be more weakness out of China was rescued thanks to aggressive buying around the European open. At 800 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.50 points, or 0.4% ahead of the CPI report due at 830am ET. 10Y yields dipped to 1.566%, the dollar was lower and Brent crude dropped below $83. JPMorgan rose as much as 0.8% in premarket trading after the firm’s merger advisory business reported its best quarterly profit. On the other end, Apple dropped 1% lower in premarket trading, a day after Bloomberg reported that the technology giant is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to prolonged chip shortages. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Suppliers Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US), Qorvo (ORVO) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS US) slipped Tuesday postmarket Koss (KOSS US) shares jump 23% in U.S. premarket trading in an extension of Tuesday’s surge after tech giant Apple was rebuffed in two patent challenges against the headphones and speakers firm Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares were up 2.7% in U.S. premarket trading after it announced a $10.0 billion stock buyback International Paper (IP US) in focus after its board authorized a program to acquire up to $2b of the company’s common stock; cut quarterly dividend by 5c per share Smart Global (SGH US) shares rose 2% Tuesday postmarket after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Wayfair (W US) shares slide 1.8% in thin premarket trading after the stock gets tactical downgrade to hold at Jefferies Plug Power (PLUG US) gains 4.9% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley upgrades the fuel cell systems company to overweight, saying in note that it’s “particularly well positioned” to be a leader in the hydrogen economy Wall Street ended lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors grew jittery in the run-up to earnings amid worries about supply chain problems and higher prices affecting businesses emerging from the pandemic. As we noted last night, the S&P 500 has gone 27 straight days without rallying to a fresh high, the longest such stretch since last September, signaling some fatigue in the dip-buying that pushed the market up from drops earlier this year. Focus now turn to inflation data, due at 0830 a.m. ET, which will cement the imminent arrival of the Fed's taper.  "A strong inflation will only reinforce the expectation that the Fed would start tapering its bond purchases by next month, that's already priced in," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "Yet, a too strong figure could boost expectations of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and that is not necessarily fully priced in." The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, due later in the day, will also be scrutinized for signals that the days of crisis-era policy were numbered. Most European equities reverse small opening losses and were last up about 0.5%, as news that German software giant SAP increased its revenue forecast led tech stocks higher. DAX gained 0.7% with tech, retail and travel names leading. FTSE 100, FTSE MIB and IBEX remained in the red. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entra shares gain as much as 10% after Balder increases its stake and says it intends to submit a mandatory offer. Spie jumps as much as 10%, the biggest intraday gain in more than a year, after the French company pulled out of the process to buy Engie’s Equans services unit. Man Group rises as much as 8.3% after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund announced quarterly record inflows. 3Q21 net inflows were a “clear beat” and confirm pipeline strength, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Barratt Developments climbs as much as 6.3%, with analysts saying the U.K. homebuilder’s update shows current trading is improving. Recticel climbs 15% to its highest level in more than 20 years as the stock resumes trading after the company announced plans to sell its foams unit to Carpenter Co. Bossard Holding rises as much as 9.1% to a record high after the company reported 3Q earnings that ZKB said show strong growth. Sartorius gains as much as 5.9% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to hold from sell and raises its price target, saying it expects “impressive earnings growth” to continue for the lab equipment company. SAP jumps as much as 5% after the German software giant increased its revenue forecast owing to accelerating cloud sales. Just Eat Takeaway slides as much as 5.8% in Amsterdam to the lowest since March 2020 after a 3Q trading update. Analysts flagged disappointing orders as pandemic restrictions eased, and an underwhelming performance in the online food delivery firm’s U.S. market. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks posted a modest advance as investors awaited key inflation data out of the U.S. and Hong Kong closed its equity market because of typhoon Kompasu. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after fluctuating between gains and losses, with chip and electronics manufacturers sliding amid concerns over memory chip supply-chain issues and Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets. Hong Kong’s $6.3 trillion market was shut as strong winds and rain hit the financial hub.  “Broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Katy L. Huberty wrote in a note. The most significant iPhone production bottleneck stems from a “shortage of camera modules for the iPhone 13 Pro/Pro Max due to low utilization rates at a Sharp factory in southern Vietnam,” they added. Wednesday’s direction-less trading illustrated the uncertainty in Asian markets as traders reassess earnings forecasts to factor in inflation and supply chain concerns. U.S. consumer price index figures and FOMC minutes due overnight may move shares. Southeast Asian indexes rose thanks to their cyclical exposure. Singapore’s stock gauge was the top performer in the region, rising to its highest in about two months, before the the nation’s central bank decides on monetary policy on Thursday. Japanese stocks fell for a second day as electronics makers declined amid worries about memory chip supply-chain issues and concerns over Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets.  The Topix index fell 0.4% to 1,973.83 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.3% to 28,140.28. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 608 rose and 1,489 fell, while 84 were unchanged. Japanese Apple suppliers such as TDK, Murata and Taiyo Yuden slid. The U.S. company is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units as prolonged chip shortages hit its flagship product, according to people with knowledge of the matter Australian stocks closed lower as banks and miners weighed on the index. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,272.50, dragged down by banks and miners as iron ore extended its decline. All other subgauges edged higher. a2 Milk surged after its peer Bubs Australia reported growing China sales and pointed to a better outlook for daigou channels. Bank of Queensland tumbled after its earnings release. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 13,025.18. In rates, Treasuries extended Tuesday’s bull-flattening gains, led by gilts and, to a lesser extent, bunds. Treasuries were richer by ~2bps across the long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s by about that much; U.K. 30-year yield is down nearly 7bp, with same curve flatter by ~6bp. Long-end gilts outperform in a broad-based bull flattening move that pushed 30y gilt yields down ~7bps back near 1.38%. Peripheral spreads widen slightly to Germany. Cash USTs bull flatten but trade cheaper by ~2bps across the back end to both bunds and gilt ahead of today’s CPI release. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.2% and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers; the Treasury curve flattened, mainly via falling yields in the long- end, The euro advanced to trade at around $1.1550 and the Bund yield curve flattened, with German bonds outperforming Treasuries. The euro’s volatility skew versus the dollar shows investors remain bearish the common currency as policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains for now. The pound advanced with traders shrugging off the U.K.’s weaker-than-expected economic growth performance in August. Australia’s sovereign yield curve flattened for a second day while the currency underperformed its New Zealand peer amid a drop in iron ore prices. The yen steadied after four days of declines. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range with WTI near $80, Brent dipping slightly below $83. Spot gold pops back toward Tuesday’s best levels near $1,770/oz. Base metals are in the green with most of the complex up at least 1%. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,346.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.04 MXAP up 0.2% to 194.60 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 638.16 Nikkei down 0.3% to 28,140.28 Topix down 0.4% to 1,973.83 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,561.76 Sensex up 0.8% to 60,782.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,272.54 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,944.41 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,768.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 94.30 German 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to -0.127% Euro little changed at $1.1553 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Vladimir Putin wants to press the EU to rewrite some of the rules of its gas market after years of ignoring Moscow’s concerns, to tilt them away from spot-pricing toward long-term contracts favored by Russia’s state run Gazprom, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Russia is also seeking rapid certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany to boost gas deliveries, they said. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street lenders after his title officially expires this week. The EU will offer a new package of concessions to the U.K. that would ease trade barriers in Northern Ireland, as the two sides prepare for a new round of contentious Brexit negotiations. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is on course to raise taxes and cut spending to control the budget deficit, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has warned interest rates are likely to rise in the coming months to curb a rapid surge in prices. Together, those moves would mark a simultaneous major tightening of both policy levers just months after the biggest recession in a century -- an unprecedented move since the BoE gained independence in 1997. Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, was charged with bribery in Slovakia. Kazimir, who heads the country’s central bank, rejected the allegations A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside with global risk appetite cautious amid the rate hike bets in US and heading into key events including US CPI and FOMC Minutes, while there were also mild headwinds for US equity futures after the closing bell on reports that Apple is set to reduce output of iPhones by 10mln from what was initially planned amid the chip shortage. ASX 200 (unch.) was little changed as gains in gold miners, energy and tech were offset by losses in financials and the broader mining sector, with softer Westpac Consumer Confidence also limiting upside in the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was pressured at the open as participants digested mixed Machinery Orders data which showed the largest M/M contraction since February 2018 and prompted the government to cut its assessment on machinery orders, although the benchmark index gradually retraced most its losses after finding support around the 28k level and amid the recent favourable currency moves. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) also declined as participants digested mixed Chinese trade data in which exports topped estimates but imports disappointed and with Hong Kong markets kept shut due to a typhoon warning. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with price action contained after the curve flattening stateside and tentative mood heading to upcoming risk events, although prices were kept afloat amid the BoJ’s purchases in the market for around JPY 1tln of JGBs predominantly focused on 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Gold Edges Higher on Weaker Dollar Before U.S. Inflation Report RBA Rate Hike Expectations Too Aggressive, TD Ameritrade Says LG Electronics Has Series of Stock-Target Cuts After Profit Miss The mood across European stocks has improved from the subdued cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) despite a distinct lack of newsflow and heading into the official start of US earnings season, US CPI and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and trade in modest positive territory across the board, with the NQ (+0.5%) narrowly outperforming owing to the intraday fall in yields, alongside the sectorial outperformance seen in European tech amid tech giant SAP (+4.7%) upgrading its full FY outlook, reflecting the strong business performance which is expected to continue to accelerate cloud revenue growth. As such, the DAX 40 (+0.7%) outperformed since the cash open, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is weighed on by underperformance in its heavyweight Banking and Basic Resources sectors amid a decline in yields and hefty losses in iron ore prices. Elsewhere, the CAC 40 (+0.3%) is buoyed by LMVH (+2.0%) after the luxury name topped revenue forecasts and subsequently lifted the Retail sector in tandem. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear bias. In terms of individual movers, Volkswagen (+3.5%) was bolstered amid Handelsblatt reports in which the Co was said to be cutting some 30k jobs as costs are too high vs competitors, whilst separate sources suggested the automaker is said to be mulling spinning off its Battery Cell and charging unit. Chipmakers meanwhile see mixed fortunes in the aftermath of sources which suggested Apple (-0.7% pre-market) is said to be slashing output amid the chip crunch. Top European News The Hut Shares Swing as Strategy Day Feeds Investor Concern U.K. Economy Grows Less Than Expected as Services Disappoint Man Group Gets $5.3 Billion to Lift Assets to Another Record Jeff Ubben and Singapore’s GIC Back $830 Million Fertiglobe IPO In FX, the Dollar looks somewhat deflated or jaded after yesterday’s exertions when it carved out several fresh 2021 highs against rival currencies and a new record peak vs the increasingly beleaguered Turkish Lira. In index terms, a bout of profit taking, consolidation and position paring seems to have prompted a pull-back from 94.563 into a marginally lower 94.533-246 range awaiting potentially pivotal US inflation data, more Fed rhetoric and FOMC minutes from the last policy meeting that may provide more clues or clarity about prospects for near term tapering. NZD/GBP - Both taking advantage of the Greenback’s aforementioned loss of momentum, but also deriving impetus from favourable crosswinds closer to home as the Kiwi briefly revisited 0.6950+ terrain and Aud/Nzd retreats quite sharply from 1.0600+, while Cable has rebounded through 1.3600 again as Eur/Gbp retests support south of 0.8480 yet again, or 1.1800 as a reciprocal. From a fundamental perspective, Nzd/Usd may also be gleaning leverage from the more forward-looking Activity Outlook component of ANZ’s preliminary business survey for October rather than a decline in sentiment, and Sterling could be content with reported concessions from the EU on NI customs in an effort to resolve the Protocol impasse. EUR/CAD/AUD/CHF - Also reclaiming some lost ground against the Buck, with the Euro rebounding from around 1.1525 to circa 1.1560, though not technically stable until closer to 1.1600 having faded ahead of the round number on several occasions in the last week. Meanwhile, the Loonie is straddling 1.2450 in keeping with WTI crude on the Usd 80/brl handle, the Aussie is pivoting 0.7350, but capped in wake of a dip in Westpac consumer confidence, and the Franc is rotating either side of 0.9300. JPY - The Yen seems rather reluctant to get too carried away by the Dollar’s demise or join the broad retracement given so many false dawns of late before further depreciation and a continuation of its losing streak. Indeed, the latest recovery has stalled around 113.35 and Usd/Jpy appears firmly underpinned following significantly weaker than expected Japanese m/m machinery orders overnight. SCANDI/EM - Not much upside in the Sek via firmer Swedish money market inflation expectations and perhaps due to the fact that actual CPI data preceded the latest survey and topped consensus, but the Cnh and Cny are firmer on the back of China’s much wider than forecast trade surplus that was bloated by exports exceeding estimates by some distance in contrast to imports. Elsewhere, further hawkish guidance for the Czk as CNB’s Benda contends that high inflation warrants relatively rapid tightening, but the Try has not derived a lot of support from reports that Turkey is in talks to secure extra gas supplies to meet demand this winter, according to a Minister, and perhaps due to more sabre-rattling from the Foreign Ministry over Syria with accusations aimed at the US and Russia. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures see another choppy session within recent and elevated levels – with the former around USD 80.50/bbl (80.79-79.87/bbl) and the latter around 83.35/bbl (83.50-82.65/bbl range). The complex saw some downside in conjunction with jawboning from the Iraqi Energy Minster, who state oil price is unlikely to increase further, whilst at the same time, the Gazprom CEO suggested that the oil market is overheated. Nonetheless, prices saw a rebound from those lows heading into the US inflation figure, whilst the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for 12:00BST/07:00EDT. Although the release will not likely sway prices amidst the myriad of risk events on the docket, it will offer a peek into OPEC's current thinking on the market. As a reminder, the weekly Private Inventory report will be released tonight, with the DoE's slated for tomorrow on account of Monday's Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices, meanwhile, are relatively stable. Russia's Kremlin noted gas supplies have increased to their maximum possible levels, whilst Gazprom is sticking to its contractual obligations, and there can be no gas supplies beyond those obligations. Over to metals, spot gold and silver move in tandem with the receding Buck, with spot gold inching closer towards its 50 DMA at 1,776/oz (vs low 1,759.50/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper has regained a footing above USD 9,500/t as stocks grind higher. Conversely, iron ore and rebar futures overnight fell some 6%, with overnight headlines suggesting that China has required steel mills to cut winter output. Further from the supply side, Nyrstar is to limit European smelter output by up to 50% due to energy costs. Nyrstar has a market-leading position in zinc and lead. LME zinc hit the highest levels since March 2018 following the headlines US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 5.3%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Sept. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.9%, revised -1.4% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap So tonight it’s my first ever “live” parents evening and then James Bond via Wagamama. Given my daughter (6) is the eldest in her year and the twins (4) the youngest (plus additional youth for being premature), I’m expecting my daughter to be at least above average but for my boys to only just about be vaguely aware of what’s going on around them. Poor things. For those reading yesterday, the Cameo video of Nadia Comanenci went down a storm, especially when she mentioned our kids’ names, but the fact that there was no birthday cake wasn’t as popular. So I played a very complicated, defence splitting 80 yard through ball but missed an open goal. Anyway ahead of Bond tonight, with all this inflation about I’m half expecting him to be known as 008 going forward. The next installment of the US prices saga will be seen today with US CPI at 13:30 London time. This is an important one, since it’s the last CPI number the Fed will have ahead of their next policy decision just 3 weeks from now, where investors are awaiting a potential announcement on tapering asset purchases. Interestingly the August reading last month was the first time so far this year that the month-on-month measure was actually beneath the consensus expectation on Bloomberg, with the +0.3% growth being the slowest since January. Famous last words but this report might not be the most interesting since it may be a bit backward looking given WTI oil is up c.7.5% in October alone. In addition, used cars were up +5.4% in September after falling in late summer. So given the 2-3 month lag for this to filter through into the CPI we won’t be getting the full picture today. I loved the fact from his speech last night that the Fed’s Bostic has introduced a “transitory” swear jar in his office. More on the Fedspeak later. In terms of what to expect this time around though, our US economists are forecasting month-on-month growth of +0.41% in the headline CPI, and +0.27% for core, which would take the year-on-year rates to +5.4% for headline and +4.1% for core. Ahead of this, inflation expectations softened late in the day as Fed officials were on the hawkish side. The US 10yr breakeven dropped -1.9bps to 2.49% after trading at 2.527% earlier in the session. This is still the 3rd highest closing level since May, and remains only 7bps off its post-2013 closing high. Earlier, inflation expectations continued to climb in Europe, where the 5y5y forward inflation swap hit a post-2015 high of 1.84%. Also on inflation, the New York Fed released their latest Survey of Consumer Expectations later in the European session, which showed that 1-year ahead inflation expectations were now at +5.3%, which is the highest level since the survey began in 2013, whilst 3-year ahead expectations were now at +4.2%, which was also a high for the series. The late rally in US breakevens, coupled with lower real yields (-1.6bps) meant that the 10yr Treasury yield ended the session down -3.5bps at 1.577% - their biggest one day drop in just over 3 weeks. There was a decent flattening of the yield curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to 0.34%, its highest level since the pandemic began as the market priced in more near-term Fed rate hikes. In the Euro Area it was a very different story however, with 10yr yields rising to their highest level in months, including among bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+1.0bps). That rise in the 10yr bund yield left it at -0.09%, taking it above its recent peak earlier this year to its highest closing level since May 2019. Interestingly gilts (-4.0bps) massively out-performed after having aggressively sold off for the last week or so. Against this backdrop, equity markets struggled for direction as they awaited the CPI reading and the start of the US Q3 earnings season today. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (-0.24%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) had both posted modest losses as they awaited the next catalyst. Defensive sectors were the outperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. Real estate (+1.34%) and utilities (+0.67%) were among the best performing US stocks, though some notable “reopening” industries outperformed as well including airlines (+0.83%), hotels & leisure (+0.51%). News came out after the US close regarding the global chip shortage, with Bloomberg reporting that Apple, who are one of the largest buyers of chips, would revise down their iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by 10 million units. Recent rumblings from chip producers suggest that the problems are expected to persist, which will make central bank decisions even more complicated over the coming weeks as they grapple with increasing supply-side constraints that push up inflation whilst threatening to undermine the recovery. Speaking of central bankers, Vice Chair Clarida echoed his previous remarks and other communications from the so-called “core” of the FOMC that the current bout of inflation would prove largely transitory and that underlying trend inflation was hovering close to 2%, while admitting that risks were tilted towards higher inflation. Atlanta Fed President Bostic took a much harder line though, noting that price pressures were expanding beyond the pandemic-impacted sectors, and measures of inflation expectations were creeping higher. Specifically, he said, “it is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures — mainly the intense and widespread supply-chain disruptions — will not be brief.” His ‘transitory swear word jar’ for his office was considerably more full by the end of his speech. As highlighted above, while President Bostic spoke US 10yr breakevens dropped -2bps and then continued declining through the New York afternoon. In what is likely to be Clarida’s last consequential decision on monetary policy before his term expires, he noted it may soon be time to start a tapering program that ends in the middle of next year, in line with our US economics team’s call for a November taper announcement. In that vein, our US economists have updated their forecasts for rate hikes yesterday, and now see liftoff taking place in December 2022, followed by 3 rate increases in each of 2023 and 2024. That comes in light of supply disruptions lifting inflation, a likely rise in inflation expectations (which are sensitive to oil prices), and measures of labour market slack continuing to outperform. For those interested, you can read a more in-depth discussion of this here. Turning to commodities, yesterday saw a stabilisation in prices after the rapid gains on Monday, with WTI (+0.15%) and Brent Crude (-0.27%) oil prices seeing only modest movements either way, whilst iron ore prices in Singapore were down -3.45%. That said it wasn’t entirely bad news for the asset class, with Chinese coal futures (+4.45%) hitting fresh records, just as aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (+0.13%) eked out another gain to hit a new post-2008 high. Overnight in Asia, equity markets are seeing a mixed performance with the KOSPI (+1.24%) posting decent gains, whereas the CSI (-0.06%), Nikkei (-0.22%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) have all lost ground. The KOSPI’s strength came about on the back of a decent jobs report, with South Korea adding +671k relative to a year earlier, the most since March 2014. The Hong Kong Exchange is closed however due to the impact of typhoon Kompasu. Separately, coal futures in China are up another +8.00% this morning, so no sign of those price pressures abating just yet following recent floods. Meanwhile, US equity futures are pointing to little change later on, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Here in Europe, we had some fresh Brexit headlines after the UK’s Brexit minister, David Frost, said that the Northern Ireland Protocol “is not working” and was not protecting the Good Friday Agreement. He said that he was sharing a new amended Protocol with the EU, which comes ahead of the release of the EU’s own proposals on the issue today. But Frost also said that “if we are going to get a solution we must, collectively, deliver significant change”, and that Article 16 which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures could be used “if necessary”. Elsewhere yesterday, the IMF marginally downgraded their global growth forecast for this year, now seeing +5.9% growth in 2021 (vs. +6.0% in July), whilst their 2022 forecast was maintained at +4.9%. This masked some serious differences between countries however, with the US downgraded to +6.0% in 2021 (vs. +7.0% in July), whereas Italy’s was upgraded to +5.8% (vs. +4.9% in July). On inflation they said that risks were skewed to the upside, and upgraded their forecasts for the advanced economies to +2.8% in 2021, and to +2.3% in 2022. Looking at yesterday’s data, US job openings declined in August for the first time this year, falling to 10.439m (vs. 10.954m expected). But the quits rate hit a record of 2.9%, well above its pre-Covid levels of 2.3-2.4%. Here in the UK, data showed the number of payroll employees rose by +207k in September, while the unemployment rate for the three months to August fell to 4.5%, in line with expectations. And in a further sign of supply-side issues, the number of job vacancies in the three months to September hit a record high of 1.102m. Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey results came in beneath expectations, with the current situation declining to 21.6 (vs. 28.0 expected), whilst expectations fell to 22.3 (vs. 23.5 expected), its lowest level since March 2020. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

This resort is like an adult summer camp with hiking and archery, but with all the features of a spa hotel

Ojo Santa Fe is a spa resort with all-inclusive activities that feels a lot like summer camp for adults with mineral baths instead of a mess hall. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider I wanted the outdoor fun of summer camp but am too old for a dining hall or forced group activities. I found just that at Ojo Santa Fe in New Mexico with swimming, hiking, archery, and more included. The whole stay was fun but also relaxing with a spa, mineral baths, and my casita with a fireplace. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyAfter a year and a half of feeling locked inside amid the pandemic, I was itching to get outdoors. I craved wide open spaces, crisp air, and invigorating activities. What I wanted it felt like, were the summer camps I experienced as a kid. While summer camps for adults do exist, it seemed like each one was meant for day drinking 20-somethings whose idea of fun was a three-legged race followed by a boisterous meal in the dining hall.Being well north of that age, I knew I needed more privacy, high thread count sheets, and the ability to choose my activities.I decided to design my own adult summer camp at Ojo Santa Fe in New Mexico where camp-inspired activities like swimming, archery, hikes, and animal interactions were all-inclusive alongside a spa, mineral baths, and a restaurant. Designing my own summer camp was a great experience and one I'd gladly replicate throughout the year.Keep reading to see how I designed my own adult summer camp. Choosing the location Ojo Santa Fe sits on 77 sprawling, lush acres. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider I've been to New Mexico many times and knew the confluence of Native American and Mexican American cultures and the mountains would make an ideal setting.I landed on Ojo Santa Fe, with a spa, restaurant, and all-inclusive camp-inspired activities with no extra resort fee. As children under 16 were not permitted it also had an adults-only feel.The 77-acre resort is a 20-minute drive southwest of Santa Fe, with 52 rooms ranging from $290 for a garden room with a balcony or patio to $395 for a stand-alone casita. I booked a casita for four nights with my boyfriend, who planned to work and needed the extra room. Getting there A car is essential to reach Ojo Santa Fe, though you won't need one once you're on-site. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider My boyfriend and I flew from Chicago O'Hare International Airport to Albuquerque International Sunport, from where we rented a car to reach Ojo Santa Fe.Ojo Santa Fe offers complimentary shuttle service to and from the Santa Fe Regional Airport. Direct commercial flights to Santa Fe are only available from Dallas, Denver, and Phoenix.Driving to Ojo Santa Fe, GPS was essential on the winding country roads. I was grateful we arrived in the daytime. The security guard at the entrance to the hotel confirmed our reservation before letting us in. The grounds Picturesque hotel grounds felt plucked from a Monet painting. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider Walking to the small building that houses the front desk, we passed a bubbling fountain surrounded by native plants. Just beyond was the patio of the on-site restaurant, Blue Heron, perched above a mineral spring-fed pond. The idyllic scene felt plucked out of Monet's garden at Giverny. Mineral baths shimmered, hammocks swayed, and it was clear that the pictures on the website do not do this place justice.Check-in was easy and the staff was courteous. We were given our keys and driving directions to our casita.  Guest rooms Casitas are standalone lodgings with private patios. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider Our casita was located at the far end of the resort with a private entrance lined with native lavender and sage. The decor was classic Southwest with adobe walls, earth-tone furnishings, and artful driftwood. The casita counted 600 square feet, but the layout made it feel bigger. There was a sitting area, a desk, a gas fireplace (AC, too), and a bedroom with a Queen bed. The bathroom had a separate dressing area with a mirror, good lighting, and a mini-fridge. Coffee, tea, bath, and body products were provided and we also had a private patio.A central ice machine and shared microwave were available for casitas but there are no TVs. Wi-Fi, however, was provided and fast enough for video streaming.Sadly, there were no views to be enjoyed from our casita. From what I could see of the garden rooms, all overlooked the well-kept grounds, and from some, you could catch a glimpse of the mountains. Except for a few minutes of stargazing every night, our patio became a depository for wet bathing suits and pool towels. The space was pin-drop quiet and plenty big for a couple but could also easily work for a family. Adjusting to the elevation Lisa Marion Smith/Insider After settling in, we headed out to explore but quickly felt exhausted as Santa Fe is 7,000 feet above sea level.  The dramatic change in altitude required adaptation. If you are coming from a place with lower elevation, be prepared to spend a couple of days adjusting. Altitude sickness is not uncommon. Mineral baths and spa During our altitude adjustment days, I found myself in an endless loop, going from one bathing area to the next. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider As such, we started with low-exertion activities such as the three mineral spring-fed bathing areas that are the star of Ojo Santa Fe.I strolled the grounds in the provided white bathrobes, starting the day by the spa and moving between the hot baths that ranged in temperature from 98 to 104 degrees.These tubs overlook the pond, a gas fire pit, and hammocks. Private soaking tubs are available. Swimwear is optional in the private tubs but required everywhere else.  The pool After swimming a few laps, I'd walk to the shaded plunge pool with in-water seating. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider When I was ready to move on, I headed to the comparatively cool 85-degree, Olympic-sized saltwater pool. It was the only area with music playing, though the mood was still refined. Private poolside cabanas were available for an additional fee. Here, I noticed my fellow guests, which included couples, women for friends' getaways, solo travelers, and large groups. At the spa, I perused treatments like the Cactus Flower Massage and Scrub and the CBD Massage, but settled on the Bamboo Massage, which used heated bamboo rolling pins of different sizes to access deep tissue. It was one of the best massages I've ever had. Checking out the Puppy Patch The dogs are kept in their own small house and before entering the Puppy Patch, guests were required to sanitize their hands and take off their shoes. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider Ojo Santa Fe had one major advantage over the summer camp of my youth: it came with puppies. The Puppy Patch was open daily each morning, where guests could play with puppies in a fenced-in yard to socialize the animals while providing a calming, restorative effect for us humans.Ojo Santa Fe has fostered over 250 puppies for adoption through the Puppy Patch. At any given time, there are one to six puppies in residence. In the days I was there, three dogs found homes, and several new puppies arrived. Feeding hens in the Chicken Chat The hotel says the chickens will plop themselves in your lap to be pet, but I found most of the fowl to be skittish. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider There was also a daily Chicken Chat, where guests and I — many in our bathrobes — sat among the flock on stools in an outdoor coop with 25 Silky chickens with names like Bok Choy. I fed a few grains out of my hand, though most were a bit skittish.  Going for hikes The views from our hikes were stunning. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider Once we were acclimated to the altitude, we signed up for a guided morning group hike, which started with a drive to a trailhead about 25 minutes away, just outside of downtown Santa Fe. We enjoyed a moderate, shaded hike, and we were so impressed, we signed up to do another trail the next day. Having a guide to take us on hikes was something we would have paid for; the fact that the guide and transportation were included was a big bonus. Trying out archery The guide did his best to help us hit the target once or twice. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider This same guide led target arts in the afternoon. It turns out archery is a lot harder than I remembered from kids' camp. The guide did his best to help us hit the target once or twice.  Other things to do and winter activities Air rifles was one of many interactive activities offered. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider We did better with the air rifles. I have never shot anything and was squeamish at the thought of holding the thing, but soon took great satisfaction in making mincemeat of the paper targets.Alas, ax throwing was not available due to construction.Yoga and Pilates classes were also offered and required reservation,  and there was a small gym with basic cardio and weight equipment. When I peeked inside, there was only one guest using it and he wasn't wearing a mask. Since I can do all these things at home in Chicago, I opted to spend time doing outside activities instead.It's also worth noting that Ojo Santa Fe is a worthy place to design a winter camp, too. When snow makes hiking untenable, activities shift to feature snowboarding, cross country and downhill skiing, and interactive art experience at museums and galleries in the city. Dining at Blue Heron restaurant There is enough variety at Blue Heron to there every night, and we often had enough left over for lunch the next day. Lisa Marion Smith/Insider The resort had only one on-site dining option, the Blue Heron restaurant. The menu featured a range of food skewing healthy-ish, but with plenty of variety. They did not serve hard alcohol, only wine, even in their cocktails, which I decided were not worth the calories or money. The view overlooking the pond from the outdoor patio was stunning. Waiting for our food to arrive, I watched enormous carp lazily skim the water's surface while an actual Blue Heron looked on from the branches of a nearby tree. COVID-19 precautions Ojo Santa Fe follows the CDC recommendations for COVID precautions. I saw all staff wearing masks indoors, 100% of the time. Hand sanitizer was readily available in public areas as well.At the restaurant and spa, the staff wore masks outside, too. Prior to my massage, I had to answer health screening questions and keep my mask on throughout the treatment. None of the guests wore masks at the bathing areas, and some outdoor activities, such as the Puppy Patch, required masks. Others, like target arts and the chicken chat, did not.When indoors, guests were expected to wear masks in the spa and restaurant. Most followed the rules; some did not. The bottom line We loved the upscale, adult summer camp atmosphere and well-maintained grounds of Ojo Santa Fe.Ojo Santa Fe is for people whose idea of a party is going for a hike, followed by a dip in a mineral bath, puppy playtime, and capping the day sitting by a fire. This is not for those seeking a rollicking stay.If I were to go back with girlfriends, I would skip the casita and get a garden room since the extra space was nice, but not necessary, and lacked any views.For those seeking to replicate the feeling of summer camp as an adult, Ojo Santa Fe offered a variety of all-inclusive outdoor activities with the amenities of an upscale spa for a stay that felt like I received a lot of value for the cost. I loved designing my own summer camp here and I'd gladly do it again in fall, winter, or spring, too.Book Ojo Santa Fe starting at $290 per night Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 1st, 2021

El Salvador Is Betting on Bitcoin to Rebrand the Country — and Strengthen the President’s Grip

Will the country's adoption of the digital currency help its people, or just its president? When Roman Martinez was growing up in El Zonte, a small coastal village in El Salvador, the American Dream loomed large. Beyond the local fishing industry, which Martinez’s parents worked in, there weren’t a lot of opportunities. “Young people just wanted to leave, to go to the U.S.,” he says. “But now we have a Salvadoran dream.” It’s a dream about Bitcoin. Two years ago an anonymous American donor sent more than $100,000 in the decentralized digital currency, or cryptocurrency, to an NGO that Martinez works for in El Zonte to pay for social programs. As the team began encouraging families and businesses to use Bitcoin, many of the town’s residents, most of whom had never had a bank account, began saving their money in the currency, making gains as its value surged. Curious tourists flooded into the town and foreign businesses set up shop. The project gave El Zonte the nickname “Bitcoin beach,” simultaneously a philanthropic endeavour and one of the world’s largest experiments in cryptocurrency. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] “People with little income, who didn’t have access to a financial system, with $5 worth of Bitcoin they can start building something that can be the legacy they leave to their children,” Martinez says, over video call, wearing a black T-shirt emblazoned with Bitcoin’s orange logo. It was partly El Zonte’s experiment that inspired El Salvador last month to become the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender—alongside the U.S. dollar, which El Salvador has used as its currency since 2001. The Bitcoin law, which came into force on Sept. 7, makes taxes payable in Bitcoin, obliges all businesses to accept it, and paves the way for the government to disburse subsidies in it. The government has built a network of 200 Bitcoin ATMs and a digital Bitcoin wallet app, called Chivo, through which it has distributed $30 worth of Bitcoin to every Salvadoran citizen in a bid to kickstart the Bitcoin economy. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele claims 2.1 million Salvadorans have used Chivo so far, in a country of 6 million people. Bukele is touting Bitcoin as a way for Salvadorans to reduce the fees they pay to send and receive remittances—which make up 22% of El Salvador’s GDP, mostly from the U.S.—and as a way for the 70% of Salvadorans who are unbanked to access financial services. He’s not alone in advocating for cryptocurrencies as a way for developing economies to bypass a global financial system in which access to services and investment are geared towards the world’s richer countries and individuals. Crypto has achieved its highest penetration mostly in countries where banking systems are costly and complicated to use, or where local economies and currencies are unstable. But critics say making Bitcoin—notoriously volatile and not subject to controls by any central bank—into legal tender is an unjustifiable gamble for El Salvador’s already ailing economy. The $200 million of taxpayer money congress has devoted to the project equates to 2.7% of the government’s total budget for 2021, or almost three times the agriculture ministry’s budget for the year. The uncertainty introduced by the Bitcoin policy has sent the price of government bonds tumbling, and halted negotiations for a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the country is seeking to plug a $1.5 billion hole in its public finances. ‘The coolest dictator in the world’ For the President, a 40 year-old with the casual wardrobe and cheeky communication style of a tech entrepreneur, Bitcoin is about more than its immediate economic impact, though. It’s a chance to rebrand El Salvador, from a country known primarily for gang violence and a sluggish economy that drives emigration to the U.S., to an independent, modern crypto pioneer. For young Salvadorans like Martinez, that means creating a Salvadoran dream. For the international community, it’s a rebuke to a world order that casts El Salvador as the backyard to the U.S.—which Bukele has increasingly railed against since taking power in 2019. Instead, he casts El Salvador as an independent hub of innovation, aligned with the anti-establishment crypto community, members of which have flooded and celebrated the country in recent months and will return for a large crypto conference in November. Envisioning the transformation he witnessed in El Zonte taking place across the country, Martinez is excited—despite doubts among the wider population. “We’re used to new things happening in the U.S. or Canada or Europe,” Martinez says. “Now we’ve changed the narrative about El Salvador and started moving forward. Michael Nagle—Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, speaks in a prerecorded video during the United Nations General Assembly via live stream in New York on Sept. 23, 2021. But there’s another narrative unfolding in El Salvador. Since Bukele’s party, New Ideas, won a landslide victory at parliamentary elections in February, he has moved rapidly to undermine the structures of El Salvador’s democracy. In May, parliament voted to replace opposition-linked judges on the supreme court with Bukele allies, bringing all levers of power under his control. In September—a few days before the Bitcoin launch—the same court ruled that Bukele can run for a second term in 2024, in defiance of El Salvador’s constitution, triggering sanctions from the U.S. He has also stepped up attacks on the media, including launching criminal investigations into news organizations and kicking critical journalists out of the country. Analysts say the Bitcoin experiment is part of Bukele’s proto-strongman trajectory. “He’s fallen in love with his own power and wants to nurture this cool millennial President image through this adventure into the Bitcoin world,” says Tiziano Breda, a Central America analyst at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. It’s working for him, largely. The Bitcoin law has sparked the first major protests of his presidency, with 8,000 people marching in San Salvador on Sept. 15— a significant number of people in a country where street protest is unusual. But the President’s approval ratings still stand above 85%. With that backing, Bukele is deeply dismissive of global concern about his leadership. On Sept 18, he changed his bio on Twitter to “Dictator of El Salvador,” clearly trolling the international press. Then, a couple of days later he changed it again, to “The coolest dictator in the world.” El Salvador’s rapid transformation On the night that Bitcoin launched in El Salvador, Nelson Rauda, a reporter for independent newspaper El Faro, went to a party. At a sleek hotel bar next to an infinity pool overlooking the pacific ocean in the department of La Libertad, crypto enthusiasts and internet celebrities from the U.S., including YouTuber Logan Paul, danced and let off fireworks to celebrate a major moment for the cryptocurrency. Some wore headdresses and carried orange signs featuring Bitcoin’s white B logo. Almost everyone was speaking English. ”The scenery, and the location was a beach in El Salvador, but it could have been anywhere else in the world,” Rauda says. “[The crypto community] want to portray themselves as bringing a future and development to El Salvador through Bitcoin— a kind of white saviorism in that sense. But most of them are not interested in the country, just business.” Bukele’s government welcomes their business. The President claims that if 1% of the world’s Bitcoin were invested in El Salvador, it would raise GDP by 25%. He has offered permanent residency to anyone who spends three Bitcoin (currently around $125,000). He has also highlighted the fact that, since Bitcoin is legal tender, rather than an investment asset, foreigners who move to El Salvador will not have to pay capital gains tax in the country on any profits made if the cryptocurrency’s value increases. To that he adds, in English, “Great weather, world class surfing beaches, beach front properties for sale” as reasons that crypto entrepreneurs should move to El Salvador. This pragmatic, salesman-like tone is something that Salvadorans appear to appreciate from their President. Though he served as mayor of the capital, San Salvador until 2018, Bukele ran for the presidency in 2019 as a political outsider. He used his direct link with millions of followers on social media to pit himself against the right and leftwing parties that had ruled the country since its civil war in the 1980s. That conflict, in which the U.S. played a decisive role by funding opponents of leftist rebels, sowed the seeds of many of El Salvador’s current problems: chronically low economic growth, weak institutions vulnerable to corruption, the world’s worst rates of gang violence and one of the lowest rates of direct foreign investment in Central America. Bukele argued, convincingly, that the postwar governments had failed to meaningfully address those woes over three decades. Since taking office, Bukele has projected an image of ruthless efficiency. In February 2020, he and a group of armed soldiers stormed into parliament in order to pressure lawmakers to pass his budget plan. He has slashed rates of gang violence, with the country’s homicide rate falling from 51 per 100,000 in 2018 to 19 per 100,000 in 2020 (Experts debate whether this is a result of Bukele’s security policy, gang trends independent of him, or a secretive quid pro quo deal he may have struck with gang leaders). He adopted a hardline response to COVID-19, ordering one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns and giving security forces the right to put any rule-breakers in detention centers, a move human rights watchdogs say led to violent repression. The unprecedented popularity Bukele has enjoyed has allowed him to move faster than Latin America observers expected to take anti-democratic steps, such as intervening in the judiciary, Breda says. “For many other sort of authoritarian governments in the region, it took [many] years to do the things that Bukele has done in such a sweeping way. The pace is definitely surprising.” Marvin Recinos—AFP/Getty ImagesIlluminated drones form figures inspired by the Bitcoin logo in El Sunzal Beach, El Salvador, on Sept. 7, 2021. ‘Bitcoin is costing the country dearly’ Those who are most sceptical of Bukele—conservative economists—see his Bitcoin law as new packaging for an old move for populist authoritarian leaders in Latin America. The policy was labelled a “Bitcoin scam” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. “They’re always trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat,” says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at the John Hopkins University and director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the libertarian think tank, the Cato Institute. “They say: ‘We’ve had all these financial problems because of all these irresponsible leaders we’ve had in the past. And now here I am riding a white horse and I’ve got some new gimmick that’s going to solve it all. It’s called Bitcoin.’” Hanke helped advise the Salvadoran government on the country’s dollarization, when it adopted the U.S. dollar as its sole currency in 2001. From 1993 the Salvadoran colón had been pegged to the U.S. dollar on a fixed exchange rate, in a successful effort to keep previously rampant inflation under control. After eight years, the government opted to fully replace the colón with the dollar. That made the economy more stable and lowered the cost of borrowing, but limited Salvadoran governments’ freedom to spend money, particularly in times of financial crisis. Hanke and others have speculated that the Bitcoin move is a first step towards scrapping dollarization altogether and issuing a national digital currency. That would both enable looser public spending, and reduce the impact of U.S. sanctions. But for local economists, the immediate concern is how Bitcoin could complicate El Salvador’s path out of a deep pandemic recession. “Public finances in El Salvador are on a knife edge. Public debt stands at close to 90% of GDP and the government needs to find almost $1.5 billion to close the year and pay its obligations,” says Alvaro Trigueros Arguello, director of economic studies at FUSADES, a San Salvador-based development thinktank. Though El Salvador’s economy is growing—with the Central Bank saying Sept. 29 that GDP is on course to surge by 9% this year—Trigueros Arguello says this is mostly due to a temporary factors, including the reopening of businesses after COVID-19 restrictions and a surge in remittances after the disbursement of pandemic aid packages in the U.S. The Bitcoin rollout has complicated El Salvador’s relationship with the IMF, from which it is seeking a $1 billion assistance package. In June the fund denied a request by El Salvador to assist in its Bitcoin rollout. It cited the lack of transparency in cryptocurrencies, arguing that the difficulty of tracing who makes Bitcoin transactions has facilitated criminal activity elsewhere, as well as environmental concerns about widening the use of Btcoin, which requires vasts amount of energy to produce. Fears over the cryptocurrency’s impact on El Salvador’s macroeconomic stability have stalled negotiations between El Salvador and the IMF, Trigueros Arguello says. “The government needs international credit and because of Bitcoin, it’s not getting it,” Trigueros Arguello says. “Bitcoin is costing the country dearly.” Camilo Freedman—Bloomberg/Getty ImagesDemonstrators hold signs during a protest against President Bukele and Bitcoin in San Salvador on Sept. 15, 2021. The backdrop to El Salvador’s experiment hasn’t undermined the excitement for those who want crypto currencies to be more widely used. Bitcoin Twitter has filled with tweets celebrating how easy it is for Salvadorans to use the currency in places like Starbucks, and praising Bukele’s foresight. “I’m totally excited about what’s happening in El Salvador. [Particularly] the fact that it’s happening in Latin America,” says Cristóbal Pereira, CEO of Blockchain Summit LatAm, a regional conference covering the blockchain technology that underlies Bitcoin, which will host events at El Salvador’s own Bitcoin conference in November. “If people end up using it widely, there’s a good chance other countries and people will end up using it more too.” It’s too early to tell if the buzz will be matched by the significant investments Bukele is hoping for. Analysts say businesses will likely wait and see how the bitcoin rollout affects El Salvador’s economic stability before striking any major deals. Mike Petersen, an American who moved to El Zonte in 2005 and helped found the Bitcoin beach, says he’s received a “a huge flood of [enquiries from] businesses that want to set up shop here, because, for the first time they are realizing, hey, Salvador is a forward looking country.” Those include companies in the Bitcoin space, such as exchanges and ATM networks, but also real estate developers, manufacturing companies and “some lighting and architectural companies that are now outsourcing, hiring architectural students here to do design and and put together bids for them. Because they can pay them in Bitcoin.” Peterson says he doubts that concern about the political situation in El Salvador will have any impact on investors. “Elite media circles are the ones that are more focused on that. I think, in the business climate, people are more pragmatic and practical about things. And they see that Bukele is extremely popular.” What’s not necessarily popular, so far, is Bitcoin. Bukele claims that a third of Salvadorans are actively using Chivo, but it is unclear how many are only using the app to access the initial $30 gift from the government. Media outlets in El Salvador reported long queues for the ATMs, where most people were converting their Bitcoin to take dollars home with them. In the first week of the rollout, one of the country’s largest banks told The Financial Times that the cryptocurrency accounted for fewer than 0.0001 % of its daily transactions. Rauda, the El Faro reporter, says he knows “no one” who’s using Bitcoin on a regular basis. Teething troubles The government gave itself just three months after parliament approved its Bitcoin law in June to introduce the currency, leading to a series of technical issues with the Chivo wallet app. Crypto bloggers reported cash taking days to show up in their Chivo accounts after being transferred by other users, bugs making the app unusable, and an initial inability to transfer any sum below $5. Bukele, who took to Twitter throughout the launch to offer emoji-laden tech support messages, claimed most of the technical problems were resolved within a few days. The bumpy rollout helped trigger a 10% fall in the value of Bitcoin against the day it became legal tender, and further falls since. On Sept. 20 Bukele said his government had “bought the dip” and acquired 150 more coins, bringing the country’s total holding to 700 (around $22 million). Chaotic rollouts of new government programs are not unique to El Salvador. But some in the Bitcoin community have concerns about the structure of the country’s experiment, beyond the initial hiccups. Marc Falzon, a New Jersey-based Bitcoin YouTuber who visited San Salvador to document the rollout, says he became concerned about Salvadoran taxpayers footing the bill despite opposition to the policy, and about Article 6 of the Bitcoin law, which says that all economic actors in the country must accept Bitcoin if they have the technical capacity to do so. “Forcing people to accept a decentralized currency from a centralized authority ebbs away at the legitimacy of not just Bitcoin, but cryptocurrency in general,” he says. Supporters of the project point out that Salvadorans don’t have to keep their money in Bitcoin if they don’t want to, with the government guaranteeing their ability to transfer them into U.S. dollars via its national development bank and a range of services allowing businesses to make that transfer automatically. But Falzon says that the positive image of EL Salvador’s rollout generated by Bitcoin influencers on Instagram and Twitter didn’t reflect what he saw. In a health store near his hotel, for example, the shopkeeper said she couldn’t afford to restock because so many Bitcoin payments made by customers had simply never shown up in her Chivo app account. “For people in the Bitcoin and crypto community, El Salvador is a ‘told you so moment,’ proof that this isn’t just a fad. And I think that in that enthusiasm, we can lose sight of both the bigger picture—in how future countries may start to follow suit—and also of the individual experiences of the people that are in these countries.” Some individuals are happy though. Martinez, the community activist who grew up in El Zonte, says the town’s experience suggests hesitancy to use Bitcoin—and opposition to the Bitcoin law—will fade as Salvadorans become more used to the technology, and become widespread within a few years. He’s not concerned, he says, by how Bitcoin may play into Bukele’s larger political project. “As an NGO, we’re apolitical. We support anything that can make a better El Salvador. And I think we’re walking towards a better future.”.....»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 1st, 2021

Futures Rebound As Yields Drop

Futures Rebound As Yields Drop U.S. index futures rebounded on Tuesday from Monday's stagflation-fear driven rout as an increase in Treasury yields abated and the greenback dropped from a 10 month high while Brent crude dropped from a 3 year high of $80/barrel after API showed a surprise stockpile build across all products. One day after one of Wall Street’s worst selloff of this year which saw the S&P's biggest one-day drop since May, dip buyers made yet another another triumphal return to global markets, with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 130 points or 0.9% after the tech-heavy index tumbled the most since March on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields rose on tapering and stagflationconcerns. S&P 500 futures rose 28 points or 0.6% after the underlying gauge also slumped amid mounting concern over the debt-ceiling impasse in Washington. A key catalyst for today's easing in financial conditions was the 10-year yield shedding four basis points and the five-year rate falling below 1%. In the past five sessions, the 10Y yield rose by a whopping 25 basis point, a fast enough move to trigger VaR shocks across risk parity investors. "We think (10-year treasury yields) are likely to around 1.5% to 1.75%, so they obviously still have room to go," said Daniel Lam, senior cross-asset strategist at Standard Chartered, who added that the rise in yields was driven by the fact that the United States was almost definitely going to start tapering its massive asset purchases by the end of this year, and that this would drive a shift from growth stocks into value names. Shares of FAAMG gigatechs rose between 1% and 1.3% in premarket trading as the surge in yields eased. Oil firms and supermajors like Exxon and Chevron dipped as a rally in crude prices petered out. The S&P energy sector has gained 3.9% so far this week and is on track for its best monthly performance since February. Among stocks, Boeing rose 2.5% after it said 737 MAX test flight for China’s aviation regulator last month was successful and the planemaker hopes a two-year grounding will be lifted this year. Cybersecurity firm Fortinet Inc. led premarket gains among S&P 500 Index companies. Here are some of the other big movers this morning: Micron (MU US) shares down more than 3% in U.S. premarket trading after the chipmaker’s forecast came in well below analyst expectations. Co. was hurt by slowing demand from personal-computer makers Lucid (LCID US) shares rise 9.7% in U.S. premarket trading after the electric-vehicle company said it has started production on its debut consumer car EQT Corp. (EQT US) shares fell 4.8% in Tuesday postmarket trading after co. reports offering by certain shareholders who received shares as a part of its acquisition of Alta Resources Development’s upstream and midstream units PTK Acquisition (PTK US) rises in U.S. premarket trading after the blank-check company’s shareholders approved its combination with the Israel-based semiconductor company Valens Cal-Maine (CALM US) shares rose 4.4% postmarket Tuesday after it reported net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate as well as a narrower-than-estimated loss Sherwin-Williams (SHW US) dropped 3.5% in Tuesday postmarket trading after its forecasted adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter missed the average analyst estimate Boeing (BA US) and Spirit Aerosystems (SPR US) climb as much as 3% after being upgraded to outperform by Bernstein on travel finally heading to inflection point The S&P 500 is set to break its seven-month winning streak as fears about non-transitory inflation, China Evergrande’s default, potential higher corporate taxes and a sooner-than expected tapering of monetary support by the Federal Reserve clouded investor sentiment in what is usually a seasonally weak month. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are seeking a vote Wednesday on a stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown, but without a provision to increase the federal debt limit. On Tuesday, Jamie Dimon said a U.S. default would be “potentially catastrophic” event, in other words yet another multibillion bailout for his bank. “Many things are in flux: the pandemic is not over, the supply chain bottlenecks we are seeing are affecting all sorts of prices and we’ll need to see how it plays out because the results are not clear in terms of inflation,” Belita Ong, Dalton Investments chairman, said on Bloomberg Television. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gauge rebounded from a two-month low, rising 0.9% and reversing half of yesterday's losses. Semiconductor-equipment company ASM International posted the biggest increase on the index amid positive comments by analysts on its growth outlook. A sharp rebound during the European session marked a turnaround from the downbeat Asian session, when equities extended losses amid concerns over stagflation and China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis. Sentiment improved as a steady flow of buyers emerged in the Treasury market, ranging from foreign and domestic funds to leveraged accounts.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Academedia shares rise as much as 6.9% in Stockholm, the most since June 1, after the company said the number of participants for its higher vocational education has increased 25% y/y. ASM International jumps as much as 7.3%, rebounding from a three-day sell-off, boosted by supportive analyst comments and easing bond yields. GEA Group gains as much as 4.7% after the company published new financial targets through 2026, which Citigroup says are above analysts’ consensus and an encouraging signal. DSV bounces as much as 4.4% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, saying the recent pullback in the shares presents an opportunity. Genova Property Group falls as much as 10% in Stockholm trading after the real estate services company placed shares at a discount to the last close. ITM Power drops as much as 6.4% after JPMorgan downgrades to neutral from overweight on relative valuation, with a more mixed near-term outlook making risk/reward seem less compelling. Royal Mail slides as much as 6.2% after UBS cuts its rating to sell from buy, expecting U.K. labor shortages and wage inflation pressures to hurt the parcel service company’s profit margins. Earlier in the session, Asian equities slumped in delayed response to the US rout. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.43% with Australia off 1.5%, and South Korea falling 2.06%. The Hong Kong benchmark shed 1.2% and Chinese blue chips were 1.1% lower. Japan's Nikkei shed 2.35% hurt by the general mood as the country's ruling party votes for a new leader who will almost certainly become the next prime minister ahead of a general election due in weeks.  Also on traders' minds was cash-strapped China Evergrande whose shares rose as much as 12% after it said it plans to sell a 9.99 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) stake it owns in Shengjing Bank. Evergrande is due to make a $47.5 million bond interest payment on its 9.5% March 2024 dollar bond, having missed a similar payment last week, but it said in the stock exchange filing the proceeds of the sale should be used to settle its financial liabilities due to Shengjing Bank. Chinese real estate company Fantasia Holdings Group is struggling to avoid falling deeper into distress, just as the crisis at China Evergrande flags broader risks to other heavily indebted developers. In Japan, the country's PGIF, or Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pension fund, said it won’t include yuan- denominated Chinese sovereign debt in its portfolio. In rates, as noted above, Treasuries lead global bonds higher, paring large portion of Tuesday’s losses with gains led by intermediates out to long-end of the curve. Treasury yields richer by up to 4bp across long-end of the curve with 10s at around 1.50%, outperforming bunds and gilts both by 2bp; front-end of the curve just marginally richer, flattening 2s10s spread by 3.2bp with 5s30s tighter by 0.5bp. Futures volumes remain elevated amid evidence of dip buyers emerging Tuesday and continuing over Wednesday’s Asia hours. Session highlights include a number of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell.     In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier advancing, and the dollar slipped versus most of its Group-of-10 peers. The yen was the best G-10 performer as it whipsawed after earlier dropping to 111.68 per dollar, its weakest level since March 2020. The Australian dollar also advanced amid optimism over easing of Covid-related restrictions while the New Zealand dollar was the worst performer amid rising infections. The euro dropped to an 11-month low while the pound touched its weakest level since January against the greenback amid a bout of dollar strength as the London session kicked off. Confidence in the euro-area economy unexpectedly rose in September as consumers turned more optimistic about the outlook and construction companies saw employment prospects improve. The yen climbed from an 18-month low as a decline in stocks around the world helps boost demand for the currency as a haven. Japanese bonds also gained. In commodities, oil prices dropped after touching a near three-year high the day before. Brent crude fell 0.83% to $78.25 per barrel after topping $80 yesterday; WTI dipped 1.09% to $74.47 a barrel. Gold edged higher with the spot price at $1,735.6 an ounce, up 0.1% from the seven-week low hit the day before as higher yields hurt demand for the non interest bearing asset. Base metals are under pressure with LME aluminum and copper lagging. Looking at the day ahead, the biggest highlight will be a policy panel at the ECB forum on central banking featuring ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Kuroda and BoE Governor Bailey. Other central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Stournaras, Makhlouf, Elderson and Lane, as well as the Fed’s Harker, Daly and Bostic. Meanwhile, data releases include UK mortgage approvals for August, the final Euro Area consumer confidence reading for September, and US pending home sales for August. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,371.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 455.97 MXAP down 1.2% to 197.38 MXAPJ down 0.7% to 635.17 Nikkei down 2.1% to 29,544.29 Topix down 2.1% to 2,038.29 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,663.50 Shanghai Composite down 1.8% to 3,536.29 Sensex down 0.4% to 59,445.57 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 7,196.71 Kospi down 1.2% to 3,060.27 Brent Futures down 0.7% to $78.53/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,740.79 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.81 German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to -0.210% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1664 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China’s central bank governor said quantitative easing implemented by global peers can be damaging over the long term and vowed to keep policy normal for as long as possible China’s central bank injected liquidity into the financial system for a ninth day in the longest run since December as it sought to meet a surge in seasonal demand for cash China stepped in to buy a stake in a struggling regional bank from China Evergrande Group as it seeks to limit contagion in the financial sector from the embattled property developer The Chinese government is considering raising power prices for industrial consumers to help ease a growing supply crunch Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pension fund, said it won’t include yuan-denominated Chinese sovereign debt in its portfolio. The decision comes as FTSE Russell is set to start adding Chinese debt to its benchmark global bond index, which the GPIF follows, from October Fumio Kishida is set to become Japan’s prime minister, after the ex-foreign minister overcame popular reformer Taro Kono to win leadership of the country’s ruling party, leaving stock traders feeling optimistic ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said policy makers must be ready to respond to persistently higher inflation that could result from lasting supply bottlenecks Inflation accelerated in Spain to the fastest pace in 13 years, evidence of how surging energy costs are feeding through to citizens around the euro-zone economy Sterling-debt sales by corporates exceeded 2020’s annual tally as borrowers rushed to secure ultra-cheap funding costs while they still can. Offerings will top 70 billion pounds ($95 billion) through Wednesday, beating last year’s total sales by at least 600 million pounds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets were pressured on spillover selling from global peers which saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst day since May after tech losses were magnified as yields climbed and with sentiment also dampened by weak data in the form of US Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed indexes. ASX 200 (-1.1%) was heavily pressured by tech and with mining-related stocks dragged lower by weakness in underlying commodity prices, with the mood also clouded by reports that Queensland is on alert for a potential lockdown and that Australia will wind down emergency pandemic support payments within weeks. Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) underperformed amid the broad sell-off and as participants awaited the outcome of the LDP leadership vote which saw no candidate win a majority (as expected), triggering a runoff between vaccine minister Kono and former foreign minister Kishida to face off in a second round vote in which Kishida was named the new PM. KOSPI (-1.2%) was heavily pressured by the tech woes and after North Korea confirmed that yesterday’s launch was a new type of hypersonic missile. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.8%) conformed to the broad risk aversion with tech stocks hit in Hong Kong, although the losses were milder compared to regional peers with Evergrande shares boosted after it sold CNY 10bln of shares in Shengjing Bank that will be used to pay the developer’s debt owed to Shengjing Bank, which is the Co.’s first asset sale amid the current collapse concerns although it still faces another USD 45.2mln in interest payments due today. In addition, the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts and there was also the absence of Stock Connect flows to Hong Kong with Southbound trading already closed through to the National Holidays. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher as risk assets took a hit from the tech sell-off and with T-notes finding some reprieve overnight. Furthermore, the BoJ were also in the market for nearly JPY 1tln of JGBs mostly in 3yr-10yr maturities and there were notable comments from Japan’s GPIF that it is to avoid investments in Chinese government bonds due to concerns over China market. Top Asian News L&T Is Said in Talks to Merge Power Unit With Sembcorp India Prosecutors Seek Two Years Jail for Ghosn’s Alleged Accomplice Japan to Start Process to Sell $8.5 Billion Postal Stake Gold Climbs From Seven Week Low as Yields Retreat, Dollar Pauses Bourses in Europe are attempting to claw back some ground lost in the prior session’s global stocks rout (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%; Stoxx 600 +0.8%). The upside momentum seen at the cash open has somewhat stabilised amid a lack of news flow and with a busy agenda ahead from a central bank standpoint, with traders also cognizant of potential month-end influence. US equity futures have also been gradually drifting higher since the reopen of electronic trade. As things stand, the NQ (+1.0%) narrowly outperforms the ES (+0.7%), RTY (+0.8%) and YM (+0.6%) following the tech tumble in the prior session, and with yields easing off best levels. Back to European cash, major regional bourses see broad-based gains with no standout performers. Sectors are mostly in the green; Oil & Gas resides at the foot of the bunch as crude prices drift lower and following two consecutive sessions of outperformance. On the flip side, Tech resides among today’s winners in what is seemingly a reversal of yesterday’s sector configuration, although ASML (+1.3%) may be offering some tailwinds after upping its long-term outlook whilst suggesting ASML and its supply chain partners are actively adding and improving capacity to meet this future customer demand – potentially alleviating some concerns in the Auto sector which is outperforming at the time of writing. Retail also stands strong as Next (+3.0%) upped its guidance whilst suggesting the longer-term outlook for the Co. looks more positive than it had been for many years. In terms of individual movers, Unilever (+1.0%) is underpinned by source reports that the Co. has compiled a shortlist of at least four bidders for its PG Tips and Lipton Iced Tea brands for some GBP 4bln. HeidelbergCement (-1.4%) is pressured after acquiring a 45% stake in the software firm Command Alko. Elsewhere, Morrisons (+1.3%) is on the front foot as the takeover of the Co. is to be decided via an auction process as touted earlier in the month. Top European News Makhlouf Says ECB Must Be Ready to Act If Inflation Entrenched ASML to Ride Decade-Long Sales Boom After Chip Supply Crunch Spanish Inflation at 13-Year High in Foretaste of Regional Spike U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 74,453 in Aug. Vs. Est. 73,000 In FX, the yield and risk backdrop is not as constructive for the Dollar directly, but the index has posted another marginal new y-t-d best, at 93.891 compared to 93.805 yesterday with ongoing bullish momentum and the bulk of the US Treasury curve remaining above key or psychological levels, in contrast to other global bond benchmarks. Hence, the Buck is still elevated and on an upward trajectory approaching month end on Thursday, aside from the fact that hedge rebalancing flows are moderately positive and stronger vs the Yen. Indeed, the Euro is the latest domino to fall and slip to a fresh 2021 low around 1.1656, not far from big barriers at 1.1650 and further away from decent option expiry interest at the 1.1700 strike (1 bn), and it may only be a matter of time before Sterling succumbs to the same fate. Cable is currently hovering precariously above 1.3500 and shy of the January 18 base (1.3520) that formed the last pillar of support for the Pound before the trough set a week earlier (circa 1.3451), and ostensibly supportive UK data in the form of BoE mortgage lending and approvals has not provided much relief. AUD/JPY - A rather odd couple in many ways given their contrasting characteristics as a high beta or activity currency vs traditional safe haven, but both are benefiting from an element of corrective trade, consolidation and short covering relative to their US counterpart. Aud/Usd is clinging to 0.7250 in advance of Aussie building approvals on Thursday and Usd/Jpy is retracing from its new 111.68 y-t-d pinnacle amidst the less rampant yield environment and weighing up the implications of ex-Foreign Minister Kishida’s run-off win in the LDP leadership contest and the PM-in-waiting’s pledge to put together a Yen tens of trillion COVID-19 stimulus package before year end. CHF/CAD/NZD - All relatively confined vs their US rival, as the Franc continues to fend off assaults on the 0.9300 level with some impetus from a significant improvement in Swiss investor sentiment, while the Loonie is striving to keep its head above 1.2700 ahead of Canadian ppi data and absent the recent prop of galloping oil prices with WTI back under Usd 75/brl from Usd 76.67 at best on Tuesday. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is pivoting 0.6950 pre-NZ building consents and still being buffeted by strong Aud/Nzd headwinds. SCANDI/EM - Not much purchase for the Sek via upgrades to Swedish GDP and inflation forecast upgrades by NIER as sentiment indices slipped across the board, but some respite for the Try given cheaper crude and an uptick in Turkish economic confidence. Conversely, the Cnh and Cny have not received their customary fillip even though the PBoC added liquidity for the ninth day in a row overnight and China’s currency regulator has tightened control over interbank trade and asked market makers to narrow the bid/ask spread, according to sources. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have been trimming overnight losses in early European trade. Losses overnight were seemingly a function of profit-taking alongside the bearish Private Inventory Report – which showed a surprise build in weekly crude stocks of 4.1mln bbls vs exp. -1.7mln bbls, whilst the headline DoE looks for a draw of 1.652mln bbls. Further, there have been growing calls for OPEC+ to further open the taps beyond the monthly 400k BPD hike, with details also light on the White House’s deliberations with OPEC ahead of the decision-making meeting next week. Despite these calls, it’s worth bearing in mind that OPEC’s latest MOMR stated, “increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fuelled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year, resulting in downward adjustments to 4Q21 estimates. As a result, 2H21 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into 1H22.” Brent Dec dipped back under USD 78/bbl (vs low 763.77/bbl) after testing USD 80/bbl yesterday, whilst WTI Nov lost the USD 75/bbl handle (vs low USD 73.37/bbl). Over to metals, spot gold and silver have seen somewhat of divergence as real yields negate some effects of the new YTD peak printed by the Dollar index, whilst spot silver succumbs to the Buck. Over to base metals, LME copper trade is lacklustre as the firmer dollar weighs on the red metal. Shanghai stainless steel meanwhile extended on losses, notching the fourth session of overnight losses with desks citing dampened demand from the Chinese power crunch. US Event Calendar 7am: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.9% 10am: Aug. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -13.8%, prior -9.5% 10am: Aug. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.3%, prior -1.8% Central Bank speakers 9am: Fed’s Harker Discusses Economic Outlook 11:45am: Powell Takes Part in ECB Forum on Central Banking 11:45am: Bailey, Kuroda, Lagarde, Powell on ECB Forum Panel 1pm: Fed’s Daly Gives Speech to UCLA 2pm: Fed’s Bostic Gives Remarks at Chicago Fed Payments DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The main story of the last 24 hours has been a big enough rise in yields to cause a major risk-off move, with 10yr Treasury yields up another +5.0bps to 1.537% yesterday, and this morning only seeing a slight -0.3bps pullback to 1.534%. At the intraday peak yesterday, they did climb as high as 1.565% earlier in the session, but this accelerated the risk off and sent yields somewhat lower intraday as a result, which impacted the European bond closes as we’ll see below. All told, US yields closed at their highest level in 3 months and up nearly +24bps since last Wednesday’s close, shortly after the FOMC meeting. That’s the largest 4-day jump in US yields since March 2020, at the outset of the pandemic and shortly after the Fed announced their latest round of QE. This all led to the worst day for the S&P 500 (-2.04%) since mid-May and the worst for the NASDAQ (-2.83%) since mid-March. The S&P 500 is down -4.06% from the highs now – trading just below the Evergrande (remember that?) lows from last week. So the index still has not seen a -5% sell-off on a closing basis for 228 days and counting. If we make it to Halloween it will be a full calendar year. Regardless, the S&P and STOXX 600 remain on track for their worst monthly performances so far this year. Those moves have continued this morning in Asia, where the KOSPI (-2.05%), Nikkei (-1.64%), Hang Seng (-0.60%), and the Shanghai Comp (-1.79%) are all trading lower. The power crisis in China is further dampening sentiment there, and this morning Bloomberg have reported that the government are considering raising prices for industrial users to ease the shortage. Separately, we heard that Evergrande would be selling its stake in a regional bank at 10 billion yuan ($1.55bn) as a step to resolve its debt crisis, and Fitch Ratings also downgraded Evergrande overnight from CC to C. However, US equity futures are pointing to some stabilisation later, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.49%. Running through yesterday’s moves in more depth, 23 of the 24 industry groups in the S&P 500 fell back yesterday with the lone exception being energy stocks (+0.46%), which gained despite the late pullback in oil prices. In fact only 53 S&P constituents gained on the day. The largest losses were in high-growth sectors like semiconductors (-3.82%), media (-3.08%) and software (-3.05%), whilst the FANG+ index was down -2.52% as 9 of the 10 index members lost ground – Alibaba’s +1.47% gain was the sole exception. Over in Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-2.18%) falling to its worst daily performance since July as bourses across the continent fell back, including the German DAX (-2.09%) and France’s CAC 40 (-2.17%). Back to bonds and the rise in 10yr Treasury yields yesterday was primarily led by higher real rates (+2.1bps), which hit a 3-month high of their own, whilst rising inflation breakevens (+2.3bps) also offered support. In turn, higher yields supported the US dollar, which strengthened +0.41% to its highest level since November last year, though precious metals including gold (-0.92%) fell back as investors had less need for the zero-interest safe haven. Over in Europe the sell-off was more muted as bonds rallied into the close before selling off again after. Yields on 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+3.0bps) and BTPs (+6.1bps) all moved higher but were well off the peaks for the day. 10yr Gilts closed up +4.2bps but that was -6.6bps off the high print. And staying with the UK, sterling (-1.18%) saw its worst day this year and fell to its lowest level since January 11 as sentiment has increasingly been knocked by the optics of the fuel crisis here. Given this and the hawkish BoE last week many are now talking up the stagflation risk. On the petrol crisis it’s hard to know how much is real and how much is like an old fashion bank run fuelled mostly by wild speculation. Regardless it doesn’t look good to investors for now. All this came against the backdrop of yet further milestones on inflation expectations, as the German 10yr breakeven hit a fresh 8-year high of 1.690%, just as the Euro Area 5y5y forward inflation swap hit a 4-year high of its own at 1.789%. Meanwhile 10yr UK breakevens pulled back some, finishing -6bps lower on the day after initially spiking up nearly +5bps in the opening hours of trading. This highlights the uncertainty as to the implications of a more hawkish BoE last week. As we’ve discussed over recent days, part of the renewed concerns about inflation have come from a fresh spike in energy prices, and yesterday saw Brent crude move above $80/bbl in regards intraday trading for the first time since 2018. Furthermore, natural gas prices continued to hit fresh highs yesterday, with European futures up +2.69% to a fresh high of €78.56 megawatt-hours. That said, oil prices did pare back their gains later in the session as the equity selloff got underway, with Brent crude (-0.55%) and WTI (-0.21%) both closing lower on the day, and this morning they’ve fallen a further -1.49% and -1.54% respectively. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell and his predecessor Treasury Secretary Yellen appeared jointly before the Senate Banking Committee. The most notable moment came from Senator Warren who criticized Chair Powell for his track record on regulation, saying he was a “dangerous man” and then saying on the record that the she would not support his re-nomination ahead of his term ending in February. Many senators, mostly Republicans, voiced concerns over inflationary pressures, but both Yellen and Powell maintained their stances that the current high level of inflation was temporary and due to the supply chain issues from Covid-19 that they expect to be resolved in time. Lastly, both Powell and Yellen warned the Senators that a potential US default would be “catastrophic” and Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a letter to Congress that the Treasury Department now estimated the US would hit the debt ceiling on October 18. So we’ve got an important few days and weeks coming up. Last night, Senate Majority Leader Schumer tried to pass a vote that would drop the threshold from 60 to a simple majority to suspend the debt limit, but GOP Senator Cruz amongst others blocked this and went forward with forcing Democrats to use the budget reconciliation measure instead. Some Democrats have pushed back saying that the budget process would take too long and increases the risk of a default. While this is all going on we’re now less than 48 hours from a US government shutdown as it stands, though there seems to be an agreement on the funding measure if it were to be raised as clean bill without the debt ceiling provisions. There is also other business in Washington due tomorrow, with the bipartisan infrastructure bill with $550bn of new spending up for a vote. While the funding bill is the higher short-term priority, there was news yesterday that progressive members of the House of Representatives may try and block the infrastructure bill if it comes up ahead of the budget reconciliation vote. That was according to Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Jayapal who said “Progressives will vote for both bills, but a majority of our members will only vote for the infrastructure bill after the President’s visionary Build Back Better Act passes.” The infrastructure bill could be tabled once again as there is no real urgency to get it voted on until the more pressing debt ceiling and funding bill issues are resolved. Democratic leadership is trying to thread a needle and the key sticking point appears to be if the moderate and progressive wing can agree on the budget quickly enough to beat the clock on the US defaulting on its debt. Shifting back to central bankers, ECB President Lagarde warned against withdrawing stimulus too rapidly as a response to inflationary pressures. She contested that there are “no signs that this increase in inflation is becoming broad-based across the economy,” and continued that the “key challenge is to ensure that we do not overreact to transitory supply shocks that have no bearing on the medium term.” Similar to her US counterpart, Lagarde cited higher energy prices and supply-chain breakdowns as the root cause for the current high inflation data and argued these would recede in due time. The ECB continues to strike a more dovish tone than the Fed and BoE. Speaking of inflation, DB’s chief European economist, Mark Wall, has just put out a podcast where he discusses the ECB, inflation and the value of a flexible asset purchase programme. He and his team have a baseline assumption that the ECB will double the pace of their asset purchases to €40bn per month to smooth the exit from the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, but the upward momentum in the inflation outlook and the latest uncertainty from recent supply shocks puts a premium on policy flexibility. You can listen to the podcast "Focus Europe: Podcast: ECB, inflation and the value of a flexible APP" here. In Germany, there weren’t a great deal of developments regarding the election and coalition negotiations yesterday, but NTV reported that CSU leader Markus Söder had told a regional group meeting of the party that he expected the next government would be a traffic-light coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. Speaking to reporters later in the day, he went onto say that the SPD’s Olaf Scholz had the best chance of becoming chancellor, and that the SPD had the right to begin coalition negotiations. Running through yesterday’s data, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading in the US for September fell to 109.3 (vs. 115.0 expected), which marks the third consecutive decline in the reading and the lowest it’s been since February. Meanwhile house prices continued to rise, with the FHFA’s house price index for July up +1.4% (vs. +1.5% expected), just as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index saw a record +19.7% increase in July as well. To the day ahead now, and the biggest highlight will be a policy panel at the ECB forum on central banking featuring ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Kuroda and BoE Governor Bailey. Other central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Stournaras, Makhlouf, Elderson and Lane, as well as the Fed’s Harker, Daly and Bostic. Meanwhile, data releases include UK mortgage approvals for August, the final Euro Area consumer confidence reading for September, and US pending home sales for August. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/29/2021 - 07:42.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 29th, 2021

September Luxury Home Marketing Report: Future Trends Homeowners and Investors Should Consider

Over the last few months, the luxury real estate market has experienced the return of a more normal pace of doing business for those looking to buy and sell their homes. Initial trends also indicate a moderation in the levels of sales and price increases, according to the latest report from The Institute for Luxury […] The post September Luxury Home Marketing Report: Future Trends Homeowners and Investors Should Consider appeared first on RISMedia. Over the last few months, the luxury real estate market has experienced the return of a more normal pace of doing business for those looking to buy and sell their homes. Initial trends also indicate a moderation in the levels of sales and price increases, according to the latest report from The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. However, while the frenzy may have settled, it’s important to note that prices are still trending upwards. This is because an inventory shortage remains the dominating factor affecting current market dynamics. During the previous 18 months, an extraordinary demand from buyers prioritizing single-family homes with large square footage, extra rooms, outdoor space and privacy above all else, was the dominant trend. In the last six months, demand for attached properties—especially condos which stalled in 2020—started to see an uptick, as buyers realized that greater inventory levels and more reasonable pricing had opened the door of opportunity. As we move into the Fall season, we review both new opportunities and trends that homeowners and investors should consider during their property search. A Return to Urban Living An increasing number of buyers are starting to return to larger metropolitan cities for multiple reasons, whether it’s simply missing the lifestyle they had before circumstances changed, to looking for a potential investment opportunity. These buyers are recognizing that while city prices did not drop significantly, they did soften due to high inventory levels. Similarly, many residents are seeing the chance to buy urban property at comparatively discounted prices against the skyrocketing prices found in their suburban communities. Still, this door may close soon, as also in the mix are foreign investors (now that travel restrictions are easing) and first-time buyers who are heading to urban markets looking for the opportunity to purchase a larger property at more affordable prices. Experts are predicting that city markets may well see stronger returns on investment than their suburban counterparts, which are already reporting a slowdown in the acceleration of their price increases. Emerging City Neighborhoods While cities are starting to experience an influx of new and returning buyers, some of the best deals may be found in the emerging neighborhoods.  Prior to the pandemic, many of these inner, mid-city communities and industrial areas had been on trend for gentrification. Cities from Vancouver and Toronto in Canada to Atlanta, Austin, Chicago and San Francisco in the U.S. saw their emerging neighborhoods stall in 2020, as people chose to purchase away from the more crowded metropolitan communities. Today, emerging neighborhoods not only afford buyers better values, but have the potential to create greater equity returns. These are ideal for buyers ready to invest in a property for the longer term; understanding that they are buying early and will need to wait for the neighborhood to evolve and mature. Opportunity in Compromise In highly popular luxury markets with little to no inventory, compromise might be the only option. However, it could ultimately be the right one. Opting to purchase a condo or fixer-upper rather than a turnkey property may provide buyers other opportunities worth considering. Firstly, less popular properties come without the added pressure of feeling desperate to purchase sight unseen or enter a bidding war. Secondly, the longer a property is on the market the more likely the seller will be open to negotiation. But more importantly, even for highly affluent buyers, getting a foothold in their preferred market despite the property not being ideal, allows them to keep up with price appreciation as well as giving them the advantage of purchasing the property they really want, once it comes on the market. Home Field Advantage Two of the pandemic’s effects on the luxury real estate market have been the purchase of properties sight unseen and multiple-offer situations. Unfortunately, this has created a negative trend in which desperate buyers are often feeling the need to make extraordinary offers in order to secure the property—only to terminate the sale when the house proves not to meet their requirements. While there are usually back-up offers, this still impacts the seller’s timeline and budget, especially if they are already in negotiations for a new property that may be proving equally popular. This can give a local buyer the home field advantage, especially if there is a multiple-offer situation. Sellers are recognizing that local residents not only know the surrounding community and where they want to live, but given their proximity will have had the time to view the property prior to making an offer. A buyer who has seen the property in person and who is able to move quickly will almost always be more appealing to a seller. New Priorities In 2020 and early 2021, the priority was to purchase larger homes offering more space, privacy and safety—and the value of fulfilling these requirements often superseded the cost factor. However, as we enter the latter part of 2021, and mainly as a result of the historic rise in property values over the last 12 months, many affluent are now starting to reprioritise their purchases with a keen eye on market stability and potential returns. Which trends will see better investment return—larger estate-sized homes, properties with views, or those located on expansive land or closer to amenities—are questions being asked of our luxury real estate professionals. The answer may lie in reviewing the sales data for the last six months, which reveals that luxury mid-sized homes ranging from 5,000 to 10,000 sq ft are proving to be in the greatest demand. Although people want extra space, they do not want to be overwhelmed. Equally, land and privacy are still important, but as things return to normal the shift back to living closer to amenities and locations closer to work may become the main priority for some once more. Time to Diversify On the opposite side, the opportunity to work from home, or anywhere, will still play a significant part in the choices of the wealthy. Now that remote working is mainstream, there is an increasing focus on investing in real estate that aligns with people’s lifestyle choices. Vacation and second-home properties are expected to see a continued increase in popularity, especially for those who need escape options from their primary property.  People are continuing to seek diversity in their lifestyle and owning multiple properties, whether they are in the city, mountains or beach locations, is an important facet in meeting that requirement. Demand is predicted to drive more development in resort and vacation markets, so properties in well-established second markets will only see an upward pressure on their values. Growth of Cryptocurrency Buying One of the hottest topics currently is the immense wealth being generated in the cryptocurrency market—despite its ups and downs. As a result, there has been an increase in the number of sellers and developers who are making their properties available to crypto-buyers. For holders of cryptocurrency, looking to diversify their portfolio, real estate’s stability and long-term growth potential is proving to be an asset of choice. The volatility of cryptocurrency has long been its biggest challenge for those looking to divest funds out of this digital currency. Equally how sales are handled using cryptocurrency have not been standardized in the real estate industry yet, so working closely with a broker and an attorney in the negotiation and preparation of the contract is of the utmost importance. Ultimately as different options emerge, including borrowing against the value of crypto currency and the ability to do direct trades within this digital world, we can be assured that crypto-buyers who have generated immense wealth are going to have a major influence on the luxury real estate market. Read the full report here. For more information, please visit www.luxuryhomemarketing.com. The post September Luxury Home Marketing Report: Future Trends Homeowners and Investors Should Consider appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 28th, 2021

8 incredible hotels at Yosemite National Park, including a retro Airstream and a majestic mountain lodge

These are the best hotels inside or near Yosemite National Park in California, from cheap picks to luxury lodges and pet-friendly places to stay. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. tiffanynguyen/Getty Images Camping isn't your only option when visiting Yosemite National Park, there are many hotels, too. From a luxury resort to a retro Airstream or a cozy cabin, there are lots of hotels near Yosemite. We found the best Yosemite hotels with tons of activities, beautiful scenery, and easy park access. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyA trip to a national park might conjure images of tents, sleeping bags, and bugs, but that doesn't have to be the case, especially when planning a visit to Yosemite National Park.Sure, you could rough it with a camping trip, but for those who yearn for a more elevated experience, there are plenty of hotels in or near Yosemite ranging from a quirky refurbished Airstream to full-on luxury.As a native San Franciscan who lives about a four-hour drive away from Yosemite, I try to visit the park as often as I can. Since I am not much of a camper, I always choose from the following hotels, which come with comfortable rooms, stunning views, loads of activities, and perhaps most importantly, easy park access.Keep reading for my picks of the best hotels in or near Yosemite's five park entrances.Browse all of the best hotels near Yosemite National Park below, or jump to a specific area:The best Yosemite National Park hotelsFAQ: Yosemite National Park hotelsHow we selected the best hotels near Yosemite National ParkMore of the best places to stay near national parksThese are the best hotels near Yosemite National Park, sorted by price from low to high. Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite With loads of amenities and activities included, Tenaya is a dream for families looking for an active vacation. Trip Advisor Book Tenaya Lodge at YosemiteCategory: Mid-rangeLocation: Fish Camp, CATypical starting/peak prices: $141/$290On-site amenities: 4 pools, hot tubs, spa, fitness center, game room, sauna, restaurant, bar, Wi-Fi, archery range, bike rentals, rock climbing wall, kid's adventure course, ice skating, sledding, snowshoeingPros: With so many activities and amenities, the Tenaya Lodge is a destination in itself. There is plenty to keep the family entertained without ever having to leave.Cons: Tenaya is a popular place for families, so it can be busy and crowded.Located just two miles from Yosemite National Park's South Gate and amid the Sierra National Forest, the Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite is ideally situated near the park with much to offer families, especially.Beyond the large Lodge, which has over 300 rooms, there are three outdoor swimming pools, including a kid's pool and an adults-only relaxation pool. There's also an indoor swimming pool for colder months, and tons of activities, ranging from a kid's adventure course and a rock-climbing wall to a variety of games, play areas, and ice skating and sledding in winter. There is also a tour service, at an additional charge, that guarantees entry into the national park.The AAA Four-Diamond hotel has a variety of different lodging types including Lodge rooms, suites, cottage rooms, and stand-alone cabins. Standard rooms in the Lodge are about 350 square feet and feature rustic wood furniture and pine barn doors.Cottage rooms have outdoor sitting areas and fireplaces, while the 560-square-foot, two-bedroom cabin Explorer Cabins come with a separate living room, a private deck, and the most privacy and space.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Autocamp Yosemite Choose from luxury canvas tents, tricked-out Airstream trailers, tiny homes, and other whimsical glamping choices. Booking.com Book Autocamp YosemiteCategory: BoutiqueLocation: Midpines, CATypical starting/peak prices: $149/$269On-site amenities: Restaurant, general store, seasonal pool, Wi-Fi, mountain bikes, Yosemite shuttlePros: Luxury tents and Airstream accommodations are modern and beautifully designed for a chic, hip glamping experience.Cons: Autocamp is from Yosemite, about a 40-minute drive to the Arch Rock entrance. The dining options are limited.For a stay immersed in the wilderness but with more luxury than you'll find in a sleeping bag, Autocamp Yosemite offers a fun take on glamping with sleek accommodations that include luxury tents, Airstreams, and tiny homes.Luxury canvas tents feature a King-size memory foam bed, a futon, electric blankets, a heater, mini-refrigerator, sofa, Wi-Fi,  and an outdoor fire pit, though restrooms and showers are shared.For a bit more privacy, opt for their Classic Airstream Suites, housed within polished, retro aluminum trailers that have a bedroom with a Queen bed in luxury linens, a futon for extra sleeping space, rain showers, a kitchenette, and a private patio with a fire pit and dining area.If you're coming with a large crew, you can choose the Premium BaseCamp Mini Suite, which features a 31-foot custom-designed Airstream Suite as well as a custom TeePee with two extra child-sized Twin beds.There's a cafe on-site, though offerings are limited, likely because all accommodations come with cookware, plates, and utensils for guests to prepare their own meals (just remember to arrive with all the ingredients you'll need). A general store is also available to purchase charcuterie fixings, BBQ-ready meats, as well as beer and wine.For socializing, Autocamp has a midcentury-inspired clubhouse with a fireplace, board games, and happy hour. They also offer yoga classes, live music, and wine tastings.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Wawona Hotel Wawona is one of just a few hotels located inside Yosemite National Park. Hotels.com Book Wawona HotelCategory: Mid-rangeLocation: Yosemite National Park, CATypical starting/peak prices: $157/$231On-site amenities: Restaurant, pool, golf, horse stables, tennis court, free breakfast buffetPros: The Wawona is one of a few hotels located within Yosemite itself, a location that offers one of the best home bases you can choose for exploring the park.Cons: Some rooms don't have private bathrooms and there are no TVs, telephones, or Wi-Fi in guest rooms.The Wawona is a quaint, historic hotel on the southern end of Yosemite National Park. It originally opened in 1856 and now consists of six whitewashed Victorian-style buildings with antique furnishings that make it feel as if you stepped back in time. Musical performances in the lounge add to the atmospheric ambiance.Room decor keeps with the Victorian aesthetic through faux antique white and wood furniture and floral draperies. Most open onto a large veranda with Adirondack chairs, and about half of the Wawona's guest rooms include a private bathroom Those without utilize nearby shared facilities that include showers, sinks, and toilets. Additionally, all rooms don't have TVs, telephones, or Wi-Fi, so this is a place for those looking to disconnect. This hotel is also seasonal; this year it closes on November 29 and opens again on March 25, 2022.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Rush Creek Lodge 8 incredible hotels at Yosemite National Park, including a retro Airstream and a majestic mountain lodge Tripadvisor Book Rush Creek Lodge Category: Mid-rangeLocation: Groveland, CATypical starting/peak suite prices: $165/$360On-site amenities: Restaurants, Pool bar, general store, spa, pool, bocce ball, games, daily activities, nightly s'moresPros: Lodge rooms have balconies and there is a wide range of on-site and nearby activities.Cons: The price can be steep in high season and may not feel worth it. Additionally, past guests have noted that the air conditioning in rooms can be loud.The Rush Creek Lodge is the newest addition to the Yosemite lodging scene joining its sister property, The Evergreen. Located just half a mile from Yosemite's Highway 120 West entrance, the Rush Creek Lodge consists of 143 hillside villas, lodge rooms, and suites spread throughout the 20-acre property.All rooms include private balconies overlooking the surrounding forest and have clean, modern, and simple layouts and furnishings, accented by large format photography of area nature and wildlife. Rooms do not have televisions but are supplied with a radio and a variety of games. If you don't want to miss the big game, there is a big screen TV in the resort's tavern.The Rush Creek Lodge is particularly fitting for families since they offer an eclectic array of activities for kids of all ages. There is a one-of-a-kind nature-oriented playground with a zip line, a 60-foot hillside slide, and a rope swing in addition to crafts and programming.Adults will appreciate the spa area that has a mineral hot tub, warm river rock loungers, and plenty of lounge chairs.The Lodge also offers a variety of tours and events for an extra fee, from guided hikes, yoga, an introduction to glass blowing to whitewater rafting.  COVID-19 procedures are available here. Yosemite Valley Lodge Hotel Rooms are basic and rustic but are much cheaper than other hotels within Yosemite National Park. Tripadvisor Book Yosemite Valley Lodge HotelCategory: Mid-rangeLocation: Yosemite Valley, CATypical starting/peak prices: $183/$251On-site amenities: Restaurants, bar, Starbucks, outdoor swimming pool, park shuttlePros: This hotel has a fantastic location inside of Yosemite National Park.Cons: Rooms don't have air conditioning so it can get hot in the summer, although small fans are provided.Located near Yosemite Falls, The Yosemite Valley Lodge is a popular choice for those looking for a centrally located place to stay within the national park.Yosemite Valley Lodge feels more like a motel than a lodge but is a top pick for its unbeatable location and the fact that it costs about half the price of the Ahwahnee, which is one of the other popular hotels inside of Yosemite National Park.Traditional Rooms are basic but possess a rustic flair with sturdy wood furniture and nature photography on the walls. These entry-level rooms are suitable for up to three people. If you need more room, Family Rooms and Bunk Rooms have extra space to spread out. Some rooms have balconies and patios, which are a nice perk. However, there is no air conditioning in any accommodation, which may be uncomfortable in hotter summer months.On-site dining is offered with a casual cafeteria-type vibe.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Evergreen Lodge at Yosemite Staying at the Evergreen Lodge is kind of like being away at a summer camp with rustic cabins and activities. Tripadvisor Book Evergreen Lodge at YosemiteCategory: Mid-rangeLocation: Groveland, CATypical starting/peak prices: $190/$310On-site amenities: Restaurants, bar, outdoor pool, hot tub, Wi-Fi, massage services, bocce ball, outdoor games, bike rental, daily activities.Pros: There is a wide range of fun activities to enjoy during your stay, which adds significant value to the rate.Cons: Most cabins are in sets of two so odds are you will have a neighbor close by. If you want more privacy, request a stand-alone cabin.Staying at the Evergreen Lodge is akin to being away at a summer camp with rustic cabins and activities galore. There are 88 cabins sprinkled across the 20-acre property located nine miles away from Yosemite's Big Oak Flat entrance.All come with private balconies, and cabins range from cozy offerings for two to family cabins that can sleep six. The standard Deluxe Cabin is 400 square feet with a King-size bed, a Queen-size pull out sofa, and a gas fireplace. The hotel can also set up tents for those who want more of a camping experience ($120 to $155 a night).During the day, sign up for nature crafts, family hikes, forest disc golf, and a variety of games, while and in the evenings, join s'mores by the fire, stargazing, and campfire sing-alongs. Live entertainment and a variety of lectures are also offered.COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Ahwahnee The Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite National Park is the most majestic, well-located place to stay within the park itself littlenySTOCK / Shutterstock.com Book The AhwahneeCategory: LuxuryLocation: Yosemite Valley, CATypical starting/peak suite prices: $478/$699On-site amenities: Restaurant, bar, outdoor swimming pool, Wi-Fi, shuttle access (on hiatus due to COVID), food, wine eventsPros: Location, location, location — the Ahwahnee has the best placement of any hotel within Yosemite National Park.Cons: Even though the rooms were recently updated, they are a bit small and still don't have that luxury feel in line with the price.  The Ahwahnee is a stunning example of the National Park Service's historic hotels and lodging. This grand hotel, located within Yosemite National Park, opened in 1927 and has been a sought-after destination ever since. Presidents, royalty, and movie stars have all stayed here while visiting the breathtaking beauty of Yosemite.The striking hotel offers a luxurious oasis in the middle of the wilderness, with a unique and rustic architectural mix of steel, stone, and concrete, which protects it from the risk of fires. Due to its architectural importance and history, it was declared a National Historic Landmark in 1987.The public spaces with roaring fireplaces, murals, and tapestries are stunning, with a casual elegance evoking the 1920s Arts and Crafts Movement. The hotel has remained timeless and classic after almost 100 years. The Great Lodge is particularly lovely with high-beamed ceilings accented with stencil work inspired by Native American artwork.The hotel's location on the floor of the Yosemite Valley is also a major benefit of staying here. It's one that far outshines any other hotel in the area as you'll be well-placed to explore Half Dome, Yosemite Falls, and Glacier Point, which are all a short stroll from the hotel.Rooms are tastefully appointed with natural hues and vintage art, though they are rather small. For more space, book one of the cottages or splurge on the Library Suite with a wood-paneled sitting room, floor-to-ceiling bookshelves, and a cozy fireplace. For the best views, Featured Hotel Rooms boast stunning vistas of Yosemite's waterfalls and iconic cliffs.  The Ahwahnee Dining Room is a landmark with 34-foot high ceilings, floor-to-ceiling windows, fine dining, and special events such as their Bracebridge Dinner, Vintners' Holidays, and Chefs' Holidays.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Château du Sureau A regal exterior features manicured gardens, a sleek pool, and beautiful scenery. Chateau du Sureau Book Château du SureauCategory: LuxuryLocation: Oakhurst, CATypical starting/peak suite prices: $495/$895On-site amenities: Free breakfast, pool, sauna, yoga, outdoor games, gardensPros: Thoughtful touches such as fresh baked cookies in the afternoon and top-notch breakfasts are included in the rate.Cons: Not all rooms are created equal; make sure to research before you book so you're not disappointed. With so few rooms, they also book up quickly.Château du Sureau, a Relais & Chateaux property, is a 5-star luxury hotel possessing a European fairy tale feel with a majestic stone turret, manicured gardens, and cozy interiors. Located in the foothills of the Sierras near Yosemite, the Château du Sureau is about a 20-minute drive to the South Gate.The nine-acre property is abundant with old-world charm from the grand piano nestled with a mural-covered alcove to French furnishings that feature throughout the property. No two rooms are alike; each is named for a fragrant herb from the South of France and features unique antiques and art, canopied beds, and private balconies overlooking the gardens. Some have fireplaces.Beyond the carefully curated rooms, the hotel is home to the award-winning Elderberry House Restaurant and the Spa du Sureau, both of which are destinations themselves.Contact the hotel for more information on COVID-19 procedures at (559) 683-6860 of chateau@chateausureau.com. FAQ: Yosemite National Park hotels Are there hotels in Yosemite National Park?Yes, there are a variety of hotels within Yosemite National Park, all of which are owned by the national park system. On our list, The Ahwahnee, The Wawona, and the Yosemite Valley Lodge are all located within the park.Do these hotels guarantee entrance to Yosemite National Park?Yosemite National Park utilizes a reservation system for the spring and summer when there are the most visitors. If you stay at the Ahwahnee, the Wawona, or the Yosemite Valley Inn you don't need a reservation. Many of the other hotels on the list do offer park tours, for an extra fee, that includes park admission.Are all of these hotels open in the winter?It does snow in Yosemite National Park so although visiting in the winter is beautiful, you'll need to have chains for your car and plenty of warm clothing. Most of the hotels on the list above are open all year, except for The Wawona.Which Yosemite hotel is best for couples?Many of these hotels cater to families. For those looking for a more romantic experience, the Ahwahnee and the Château du Sureau are the best hotels for couples. Both are beautiful, relaxing, romantic, and offer fine dining.What hotels in Yosemite National Park allow dogs?Autocamp Yosemite, Château du Sureau, and the Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite are the only hotels that allow dogs. In fact, Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite offers pet concierge, pet beds, and an on-property kennel.Is it safe to stay in hotels?At this time, the CDC states that domestic travel is safe if you are fully vaccinated. While the vaccination rates vary by location, the unvaccinated should continue to take extra precautions.It is advisable that all travelers continue to follow CDC and local guidelines such as wearing masks, social distancing, and using hand sanitizer. All of the hotels we included have cleaning and safety protocols in place for guest rooms and public spaces to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. How we selected the best hotels near Yosemite National Park Each hotel or resort is located a short distance, at most a 40-minute drive, from one of the Yosemite National park entrances. There are also a couple of options within the park itself.The hotels boast comfortable, spacious rooms and can accommodate families as well as be a good fit for a couples getaway.Hotels are considered three-stars and up and hold a Trip Advisor rating of four or above with significant, honest recent reviews.The hotels have good on-site amenities such as pools and perks that guests will enjoy.The hotels promote stringent COVID-19 policies to prioritize the health and safety of all guests, which we've noted for each hotel below. More of the best places to stay near national parks TripAdvisor The best hotels near US national parksThe best vacation rentals near US national parksThe best campsites in the USThe best US mountain resorts for all seasons Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 27th, 2021

Asheville boasts one of the longest foliage seasons in the US - these 10 central hotels offer striking views

These are the best hotels in Asheville, NC including Grand Bohemian, the Biltmore, Cambria, the Renaissance, Kimpton, and Omni Grove Park Inn. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Omni Hotels Asheville is a big city with a small-town feel in North Carolina. Asheville is near national parks and is known for vibrant dining, breweries, art, and music. Asheville's best hotels are also varied, from boutique inns to B&Bs and brand name luxury. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyWith unbelievable mountain views, a thriving food and drink scene, an emphasis on nature, and a penchant for the arts, Asheville is a must-visit destination. Sitting on "America's Prettiest Drive," the Blue Ridge Parkway, it has mild seasons year-round and one of the longest, most vibrant fall foliage seaons in the US.I've been visiting Asheville for the past decade, and throughout the pandemic, it made it my go-to road trip for its accessible location, outdoor activities, and how safely it's handled COVID-19. Follow my lead and plan a trip to Asheville with a stay at one of the following standout hotels that range from cozy bed and breakfast in a historic neighborhood to trendy downtown high rise, and the lap of luxury at a five-star spa hotel. Browse the best Asheville hotels below, or jump directly to a specific area here:The best hotels in AshevilleFAQ: Asheville, NC hotelsHow we selected the best hotels in AshevilleMore of the best hotels on the East CoastThese are the best hotels in Asheville, sorted by price from low to high. Cambria Downtown Ashville Floor-to-ceiling windows offer direct views of Pisgah Mountain. Booking.com Book Cambria Downtown AshevilleCategory: BudgetNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak prices: $128/$515Best for: Couples, friends, families, solo travelers, business travelers On-site amenities: Restaurant, bar, fitness room, convenience store, meeting roomsPros: Every room is thoughtfully designed with wide foyers, Bluetooth mirrors in the bathroom, and desks and beds facing floor-to-ceiling windows with mountain views.Cons: TVs only have a few channels and don't connect to streaming services, so don't count on a lot of in-room entertainment.Located next to historic Grove Arcade, the Cambria Downtown Asheville places you in an ideal location to explore Downtown's revered restaurants, bars, breweries, and galleries on foot.The rooms are loft-style, with floor-to-ceiling windows offering direct views of Pisgah Mountain and more space to spread out than most standard hotel rooms. As you walk in, a foyer gradually widens, opening up to a space marked by crisp white beds, a desk, plenty of electrical outlets and USB ports, wood floors, and exposed red brick walls with eye-catching splashes of blue. The bathroom is spacious with a large vanity, walk-in showers, bathtubs in some rooms, and the coolest part, Bluetooth mirrors that can play your music while you get ready.A sundry in the lobby is packed with healthy meals to prepare in your in-room microwave, or head to Hemingway's, a Cuban restaurant and bar on the fourth-floor with a terrace and fire pits. Locals pack this rooftop on weekend nights, so make a reservation to grab a seat. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Renaissance Asheville Hotel Rooms are comfortable, clean, and have mountain views. Marriott Book Renaissance Asheville HotelCategory: Mid-rangeNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak prices: $131/$512Best for: Couples, solo travelers, business travelers, Marriott loyalistsOn-site amenities: Restaurant, fitness room, pool, meeting rooms, marketPros: This Renaissance has the largest Junior Olympic saltwater swimming pool in Asheville.Cons: The restaurant is only open for breakfast, and the only other food served at the hotel are the snacks and packaged meals available at the on-site market. When you need a nice, but moderate Downtown Asheville hotel with a full list of modern amenities from a trusted brand, choose the Renaissance.I stayed here on a whim as I was passing through Asheville in the height of COVID-19 in 2020, and wanted a hotel brand I knew I could trust to handle the pandemic safely. The Renaissance, a Marriott Bonvoy property, did this exceptionally well and impressed me with their levels of safety and cleanliness.The Renaissance is on the edge of Downtown Asheville and every room has floor-to-ceiling windows that allow you to wake up to see the sunrise over the Blue Ridge Mountains. Rooms are spacious and comfortable with plush beds, textured black headboards, a desk, and a sitting area.Asheville was nicknamed "Bee City USA" in 2012 for its honey bee population and commitment to educating the public about how important bees are for the environment. Staying true to this oath, this hotel houses "bee boxes" from the Bee Institute on its roof to promote sustainability.COVID-19 procedures are available here. 1900 Inn on Montford The lavish, spa-like Cloisters Suite is a top pick for romance and relaxation. Booking.com Book 1900 Inn On MontfordCategory: BoutiqueNeighborhood: Montford Historic DistrictTypical starting/peak prices: $145/$605Best for: Couples, luxury travelers, solo travelers, foodiesOn-site amenities: Dining room, daily breakfast and social hour, live music, games, all-day snacksPros: Book the luxurious 1,300-square-foot Cloisters suite, which has a private garden and a large spa room with a two-person Whirlpool, shiatsu massage, air bath, and walk-in shower.Cons: This hotel is not great for families as children under the age of 12 are not permitted.Perched on a hill in a historic residential neighborhood, just eight blocks from the edge of Downtown Asheville, the Inn on Montford is charming, cozy, and well-placed.This Arts and Crafts style bed and breakfast has eight rooms, each with King beds, gas fireplaces, bathrooms with fiber-optic starry floors, Roman baths, and color-changing, LED-lit vanities.Don't miss the daily cookie selection; one of the innkeepers, Shawnie, makes them herself and prepares a mix of mouthwatering flavors like salted chocolate chip, oatmeal raisin, or chocolate-orange.If you're on vacation with your special someone, make it extra romantic and book the Cloisters suite, in the Carriage House, which has 1,300 square feet of space, a private garden, a huge living room, a kitchenette, a bar, a fireplace, and a luxurious 68-square-foot spa room with a two-person Whirlpool tub, shiatsu massage, air bath, and a huge walk-in shower. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Grand Bohemian Hotel Asheville, Autograph Collection Art and design feature prominently, with statement decor in guest rooms. Marriott Book Grand Bohemian Hotel Asheville, Autograph CollectionCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: Biltmore VillageTypical starting/peak prices: $158 /$600Best for: Couples, families, solo travelers, business travelers, Marriott loyalistsOn-site amenities: Restaurant, bar, art gallery, spa, fitness room, meeting roomsPros: Grand Bohemian Asheville is located directly across the street from the entrance to the famed Biltmore Estate, and the on-site art gallery has local and regional art and jewelry for sale.Cons: In some room categories, the bathroom is separated from the bedroom by a thin curtain rather than an actual door, which isn't ideal for privacy or modesty. Request one with a door if you're traveling with mixed company.This art-driven hotel is the best hotel in Biltmore Village, directly across the street from the entrance to famous Biltmore Estate, known as "America's Largest Home," which was built by George Vanderbilt in 1889 and has a world-class winery, historic gardens, popular restaurants, a farm and over 20 miles of nature trails.Like all Kessler boutique properties, this hotel is innately luxurious, but with a vibe that's creative, relaxing, and comfortable enough to make you feel at home. Art also features prominently, with an on-site art gallery filled with paintings, sculptures, glass art, and jewelry by local artists that are also available for sale.As such, the atmosphere is rich and enticing, with an entrance flanked by a Tudor-style driveway, dramatic candelabras, and heavy burgundy drapes.Inside, stylish, but quirky rooms and common areas juxtapose oil and contemporary paintings and historic busts with surprising sculptures, like a wild hog wearing a tacky tourist hat, and bright purple low lighting that matches velvet chairs alongside fixtures that look like antlers. The rooms are big and enticing, with tufted teal headboards, lamps with tree branch bases, brown and teal-patterned carpeting, and sleek bathrooms with views of the Blue Ridge Mountains from the soaking tub.COVID-19 procedures are available here.Read our full hotel review of Grand Bohemian Hotel Asheville Village Hotel Village Hotel is one of three accommodation options housed within the 8,000-acre Biltmore Estate. Booking.com Book Village HotelCategory: Mid-RangeNeighborhood: Biltmore VillageTypical starting/peak prices: $170 /$705Best for: Families, couples, solo travelersOn-site amenities: Restaurants, bars, pool, spa, fitness room, meeting roomsPros: Village Hotel is located in Antler Hill Village, on Biltmore Estate, right next to a slew of family-friendly restaurants, activities, a petting zoo, a winery, and over 20 miles of nature trails. Cons: Transportation around the estate is currently unavailable due to COVID-19, so guests will need to factor a rental car into the cost of their trip.Village Hotel is one of three accommodation options housed within the 8,000-acre Biltmore Estate, and it's the best pick for families. Located in Antler Hill Village, just steps from the winery, the famed Cedric's Tavern (named after the Vanderbilt family dog), a petting zoo, the outdoor adventure center, and over 20 miles of nature trails, the hotel offers tons to do.The entry-level Village Double Rooms are simple, without fancy bells and whistles, but are modern and spacious with a minimalist black, white and gray color scheme, comfortable double beds, a walk-in shower, and a charming window seat for a vantage point over the beautiful grounds.In addition to all of the aforementioned perks of staying at Biltmore Estate, guests can also dine at Village Social for kid-friendly breakfast, lunch, and dinner menus, or go to The Creamery for "Winky Bar sundaes," which is a waffle cone filled with black cherry ice cream, whipped cream, and a cherry.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Kimpton Hotel Arras Kimpton Hotel Arras has a prime downtown location and impressive perks, especially for pets. Booking.com Book Kimpton Hotel Arras Category: Boutique Neighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak prices: $171/$760Best for: Couples, solo travelers, business travelers, travelers with pets, IHG loyalistsOn-site amenities: Restaurant, bar, meeting rooms, fitness center, seasonal book program, free essential toiletriesPros: This hotel boasts a super central location in downtown Asheville, right on Pack Square. Animals may stay at no extra charge and receive special pet amenities.Cons: With its prime downtown location and resident and local foot traffic, this hotel can be loud and crowded.When in Downtown Asheville, look up and you'll spot the Kimpton Hotel Arras; it's the tallest building in all of Asheville.The 128 rooms, suites, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom luxury condos are bright, airy, and filled with natural woods, white and neutral fabrics, textured walls, art by local Asheville artist Catherine Murphy, a desk, and floor-to-ceiling windows facing Downtown Asheville and the Blue Ridge Mountains.In even the most basic Queen Room, the vanity and bathroom area feels luxurious with a huge walk-in glass shower, marble accents, warm lighting, a dark wood vanity, a large mirror, and a separate toilet.Indulge in drinks and a Mediterranean meal at District 42, and when the sun goes down on a pretty evening, grab a seat by the glass fire pits on the terrace and watch life in Downtown Asheville buzz by. All Kimpton hotels are pet-friendly, too, so bring your dog, cat, bird, iguana or any other animal for no charge. All pet companions are also pampered with perks like stylish feeding bowls, pet beds, treat bags, a ball, and more for free.COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Foundry Hotel Asheville Exposed brick and contemporary furnishings give off an industrial-chic vibe. Hilton Book The Foundry Hotel AshevilleCategory: BoutiqueNeighborhood: DowntownTypical starting/peak prices: $182/$684Best for: Couples, luxury travelers, solo travelers, families, Hilton loyalistsOn-site amenities: Restaurant, bar, fitness room, meeting rooms, courtyard with fire pitsPros: It's just two blocks walking distance from the heart of downtown Asheville, and offers Tesla car service and a Southern soul food restaurant by a six-time James Beard Award nominee.Cons: The internet connection was unreliable when I visited, which is hard for business travelers or those who like to be overly connected.Once the foundry and warehouse that forged steel for Asheville's famous Biltmore Estate, The Foundry Hotel Asheville is now a luxury boutique Hilton property next to Pack Square Park.An ode to the city's Black history, it's located in a historical enclave called "The Block," that was once a hub of African American community and business in the late 19th and 20th centuries.After sipping a glass of Champagne at check-in, make your way up to your room, which feels industrially luxe with exposed brick walls, all-white beds with cream tufted leather headboards, floor-to-ceiling mountain views, and eclectic wall art featuring period paintings and newspaper clippings in mixed oval and rectangular frames.Paying homage to its Black heritage, the on-site Benne on Eagle is a Southern soul food restaurant led by six-time James Beard Award nominee John Fleer. The hotel is just a five-minute walk from Downtown Asheville, but if you'd rather drive, The Foundry's Tesla car service can drop you off. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Abbington Green This charming B&B feels plucked from the English countryside. Booking.com Book Abbington GreenCategory: BoutiqueNeighborhood: Montford Historic DistrictTypical starting/peak prices: $229/$469Best for: Couples, luxury travelers, solo travelers, foodiesOn-site amenities: Dining room, spa, English gardens, daily breakfast and social hour, games, all-day snacksPros: Every room has a King bed (which is unique for most historic bed and breakfasts in Asheville) and TVs you can watch from the bathtub.Cons: Children under the age of 12 are not permitted, which isn't ideal for young families.The English-inspired Abbington Green is an award-winning bed and breakfast, sitting atop a hill with whimsical landscaping and prize-winning manicured gardens.The property has both a main and carriage house, seven rooms, one two-bedroom suite, a spa room, a dining room, and a living room with games, a piano, and a guitar.Every guest room has a King bed, which is unique for historic homes like these, as well as towel warmers, a fireplace, and luxury bathtubs with a view of the TV — perfect for a bubble bath with a glass of wine and your favorite movie.There's an on-site charging station for electric cars, daily breakfast, a social hour, and a beautiful veranda where you can watch the sunset over the Blue Ridge mountains. The warmth of innkeepers Dean and Cherie brings it all together, as they love to talk to their guests, swap travel stories, and make everyone feel right at home.For COVID-19 procedures, call (828) 251-2454. Sourwood Inn The owners spent more than 25 years in the wine industry, and their knowledge filters down to the overall experience of staying here. Booking.com Book Sourwood InnCategory: BoutiqueNeighborhood: Greater AshevilleTypical starting/peak prices: $235/$390Best for: Couples, luxury travelers, solo travelers, nature lovers, foodies, oenophilesOn-site amenities: Dining room, library, loop trails, wine and flower packages, gamesPros: The owners spent more than 25 years in the wine industry and brought that culinary experience to the hotel, giving guests farm-to-table dining, curated wine lists, in-room wine programs, and pairing dinners.Cons: The inn is a 20-minute drive from downtown Asheville on remote mountain roads, so you'll have to factor a rental car into your trip.This romantic bed and breakfast is a true hidden gem that sits largely under the radar in Asheville. Located right off the famous Blue Ridge Parkway, it's just 20 minutes from downtown, positioned on 100 acres of hilly landscapes that make it feel as if you're staying in a national park.There are 12 guest rooms in the cedar and stone-trimmed main house, with a separate Sassafras Cabin, all of which underwent a recent head-to-toe renovation. Rooms are airy and bright, welcoming sunlight through tall windows, plus light-colored walls, wood-burning fireplaces, balconies overlooking Reems Creek Valley, and soaking tubs with scenic Bullhead Mountain views.The owners spent a combined 25+ years in the wine industry, and brought that culinary knowledge to the inn through well-executed farm-to-table cuisine, curated wine lists, food pairings, as well as wine of the month and wine and dine packages that add value for serious oenophiles. COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Omni Grove Park Inn Sprawling grounds feel regal and are exceedingly beautiful. Tripadvisor Book The Omni Grove Park InnCategory: LuxuryNeighborhood: Grove ParkTypical starting/peak prices: $239/$1,049Best for: Couples, luxury travelers, business travelers, families On-site amenities: Restaurants, bars, fitness room, pools, spa, meeting rooms, sports complex, outdoor center, golf course, tennis courts, food foraging experiencesPros: Perfect for a honeymoon or couples getaway, this romantic hotel guarantees five-star service, a renowned subterranean spa, and an iconic view of the Blue Ridge Mountains at sunset from its restaurant, Sunset Terrace.Cons: As this is a luxury property, expect to pay premium prices for everything.Few resorts can say they've hosted 10 US presidents and every celebrity you can think of, from Gene Hackman and Helen Carter to Nick Carter and Barack Obama, but The Omni Grove Park Inn is one of them. Additionally, this historic resort, which opened in 1913 is famous for being a World War II internment camp for German diplomats, and served as the hotel and inspiration of choice for author F. Scott Fitzgerald over the course of two summers. Five-star service is unparalleled, with an exterior resembling a majestic stone palace that appears as if it's built right into the mountains. Overlooking 300 acres of hills, woodlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains, the hotel also sits on a Donald Ross-designed championship golf course.From its famous terrace viewpoint, wander down the stone steps to the subterranean spa (it's so popular that you have to book six or eight weeks in advance to get an appointment) and discover hidden waterfalls along the way. Be sure to drink a glass of wine by one of two huge lobby fireplaces, and look up to see original light fixtures from the first day it opened.You'll likely pinch yourself watching the sunset over the mountains from dinner at Sunset Terrace. It's such an iconic view that, whether you stay at the Omni or not, everyone will ask if you saw it.COVID-19 procedures are available here. FAQ: Asheville, NC hotels What is the best area to stay in Asheville?Asheville is a revered food and drink destination and staying in downtown Asheville puts you within walking distance from many award-winning restaurants and breweries.If you're only in town to visit Biltmore Estate, you could stay in Biltmore Village, which is right across the street from the estate entrance, or at the Biltmore itself. Biltmore Village and Downtown Asheville are the two main attraction areas in Asheville and, luckily for visitors, they are only a 10-minute drive apart.Don't worry about not having a car; Uber and Lyft are everywhere in Asheville's popular areas, and it's easy to catch one to get to and from each. When is the best time of year to visit Asheville?Ask the locals, and they'll tell you there's no such thing as a "low season" in Asheville anymore. As such, the best time of year to visit Asheville is anytime. The award-winning restaurant and brewery scene is always available and the famous Biltmore Estate is a top attraction.If you're planning a fall visit, Asheville's 100+ deciduous trees give it one of the nation's longest fall foliage seaons, making it truly spectacular to visit in September and October. At this time of year, the leaves start to change along the iconic Blue Ridge Parkway, apple-picking season is in full swing, and temperatures drop to the 40s and 50s.Prices get slightly cheaper in January and February when snow and ice make driving in the mountains less appealing, and in March when it's cold and rainy. What are COVID-19 protocols in Asheville?Asheville has been very proactive about COVID-19 risk since the beginning of the pandemic, and stores, restaurants, and businesses strictly enforce local mandates. Currently, there are no restrictions on capacity and social distancing in restaurants, bars, and meeting spaces. Masks are required in all indoor locations in Buncombe County based on advice from medical experts and scientists. What is the best hotel in Asheville?I believe that The Omni Grove Park Inn is by far the best hotel in Asheville. It feels like staying in a palace built into the mountain, right on a championship golf course, with five-star service, a subterranean spa, and unbelievable views of 300+ acres of rolling green hills and the Blue Ridge Mountains in the distance. Staying here is the ultimate getaway, whether you're on your honeymoon, planning a girls spa weekend, or looking for a memorable place to spend the holidays. But with rooms hitting peak prices at $1,049 a night, it might not be an option for everyone. However, Asheville is filled with a range of wonderful boutique properties and larger hotels. For the best boutique hotel in Asheville, stay at the Abbington Green, an England-inspired bed and breakfast in the Montford Historic District with large and modern King rooms, daily breakfast, social hours, and beautiful English gardens.For the best hotels in downtown Asheville, the Kimpton Hotel Arras is a dog-friendly hotel right on Pack Square with beautiful and spacious rooms. And across from Grove Arcade, the Cambria Hotel Downtown Asheville offers stylish loft-style rooms with panoramic mountain views, Bluetooth bathroom mirrors, and a terrific terrace restaurant serving authentic Cuban food. What is better in Asheville—a boutique inn or bed and breakfast, or a larger hotel or resort?Both options are wonderful, and the one you choose depends on what your group needs or prefers. Boutique inns or bed and breakfasts are usually in historic residential neighborhoods and offer a cozy and comfortable feel of staying in someone's house. They typically have between six and 16 rooms, so if you're traveling with a small or mid-sized group, you could even rent the entire property.A larger hotel comes with more amenities and usually a more central location within walking distance of great restaurants, bars, breweries, shopping, and entertainment. There are also no age restrictions at larger hotels in Asheville, while most bed and breakfasts don't allow children under the age of 12 so as not to disturb other guests. What is the most romantic hotel in Asheville?With its beautiful stone building, iconic views, luxury service, and intimate feel, there is nowhere more romantic in Asheville than The Omni Grove Park Inn. Make your honeymoon extra special by booking a couples massage at the spa, ordering a tasty steak dinner and a bottle of wine at Sunset Terrace, book a Premium Club Floor Room on the adults-only Club Floor, and end each night with a drink by the lobby fireplace. What is the best hotel for families in Asheville?Village Hotel in Biltmore Estate's Antler Hill Village is great for families. Its basic Village Room starts at $170 and comes with two double beds. If you need more room, upgrade to the Village Double with Living Room, which starts at $320 per night and comes with a bedroom with two double beds, a separate living room with a couch, two twin sleeper sofas, and two full bathrooms.The location is also a huge benefit for families as it is steps away from family-friendly restaurants, the Farmyard petting zoo, 20+ miles of easy nature trails, falconry, and the Biltmore Gardens Railway, which has model trains that kids will love.How cheap or expensive is it to plan a trip to Asheville?Asheville is definitely a top tourist destination in the United States, so prices are constantly rising. That said, there is so much to do and see in Asheville, from hiking, biking, and kayaking to award-winning restaurants, breweries, and the Biltmore. These activities run from free or cheap to quite expensive. Hotels and resorts also run the gamut from $128 to $1,049 per night, and there are also tons of Airbnbs at a variety of price points. If you'd prefer one, we rounded up the best vacation rentals in Asheville as well. How we selected the best hotels in Asheville I chose the properties on this list based on my own deep knowledge of Asheville, supplemented by the research points listed below. I extensively researched and visited each hotel and selected properties with excellent recent reviews and ratings of 4 or higher on trusted traveler sites like Tripadvisor or Booking.com.All properties offer a variety of accommodation types, from boutique bed and breakfasts to brand-name hotels and luxury resorts.They range in starting price from $128 to $1,049 per night to suit a range of budgets. Hotels are located in Asheville's top neighborhoods and historic districts, and are near popular restaurants, breweries, shops, and attractions.All hotels offer COVID-19 safety policies, which we've linked for each property, or provided contact information where you can find out more. More of the best hotels on the East Coast Tripadvisor The best hotels in BostonThe best hotels in New York CityThe best hotels in PhiladelphiaThe best hotels in Washington, DCThe best hotels in Ocean City, MarylandThe best hotels on Hilton Head IslandThe best hotels in Myrtle BeachThe best hotels in CharlestonThe best hotels in SavannahThe best hotels on Tybee IslandThe best hotels in Florida Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytSep 24th, 2021

Pamper yourself at these 10 hotel spas in the US, from Arizona"s hot springs to New York"s Finger Lakes

We found the best hotels with spas in the US for self-care, from restorative treatments to guided meditation and holistic wellness. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Aman Resorts A getaway to de-stress sounds more enticing than ever. Many hotels have incredible spas rooted in helping you relax; some of the best are in the US. The best hotels with spas range from $97 to well over $1,000 - no passport required. Table of Contents: Masthead StickyMany of us are looking to finally return to travel with a focus on much-needed wellness. Fortunately, the US offers some of the best destination spas on the planet in hotels housed everywhere from urban oases in major metros to remote retreats nestled on beaches and islands.As a travel writer with an emphasis on luxury, I've experienced hotels with spas that are simply otherworldly. My top picks boast expansive facilities with soothing designs, innovative technologies, and holistic approaches like meditation and acupuncture. If you're ready to invest in some serious self-care, keep reading for the best hotels with spas in the US. Though, if you're looking for something more far-flung while keeping to a budget, we also rounded up the most affordable hotel spas around the world.Browse all the best hotels with spas below, or jump directly to a specific area here:The best hotels with spas in the USFAQ: Hotels with spasHow we selected the best hotels with spasMore of the most incredible hotelsThese are the best hotels with spas in the US, sorted by price from low to high. Resorts World Las Vegas Resorts World Las Vegas opened in June as the first integrated complex to go up on the Strip in over a decade. Tripadvisor Book Resorts World Las VegasCategory: BudgetLocation: Las Vegas, NevadaTypical starting/peak price: $97/$263Best for: Families, couples, groups of friends, solo travelers, business travelersOn-site amenities: An enormous slate of dining, entertainment, nightlife, and retail options, plus pools, spa, fitness center, casinoSpa features: The theatrical Art of Aufguss experience (the first of its kind in the US), Fountain of Youth experience with six vitality pools, foot spa lounge, bodywork, facialsPros: As the newest full-scale resort-casino property on the strip, Resorts World is a buzzy new option with a full suite of amenities in addition to the next-level spa.Cons: Although it's the newest, this isn't the poshest hotel in Vegas compared with pricier, more upscale resorts with tricked-out guest rooms.The Strip's newest integrated resort (that is, a major resort property that includes a hotel, casino, entertainment, convention facilities, retail, and more) comes with a unique and Vegas-worthy spa experience: Awana Spa. The spa offers an experience not available anywhere else in the country, known as the Art of Aufguss. This unique treatment-slash-show within the spa was inspired by European saunas that provide rejuvenation and socializing with the communal goal of wellness. The spa showcases a theater-inspired heated room with aromatherapy, choreographed music, lighting, and dancing towels, and it's as avant garde as it is relaxing. Here, each "sauna meister" curates a 30-minute themed experience.The Fountain of Youth is an experience within the spa that houses a network of six vitality pools, heated crystal laconium room, tepidarium chairs, vapor-filled steam rooms, cool mist showers, and an experiential "rain walk." The huge co-ed facility features LED screens and immersive experiences that change throughout the day; when the projection transports guests to various picturesque destinations, the room's temperature and other details change to match the displayed setting. The spa also offers traditional facials and body work, and has a foot spa lounge. Resorts World is the first complex like it to be built on the Las Vegas Strip in more than a decade. The $4.3 billion property has 3,500 guest rooms and suites, gaming, more than 40 food and beverage options, and nightlife. Through its partnership with Hilton, the development includes the Las Vegas Hilton, Conrad Las Vegas, and Crockfords Las Vegas. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Inns of Aurora Inns of Aurora is a luxury lakeside boutique resort in the Finger Lakes with a 15,000-square-foot spa. Inns of Aurora Book Inns of AuroraCategory: BoutiqueLocation: Aurora, New YorkTypical starting/peak price: $187/$360Best for: Families, couples, groups of friends, business travelersOn-site amenities: Multiple dining options, spa, activity center, meeting and event spaceSpa features: Indoor and outdoor hydrotherapy pools, meditation spaces, 10 treatment rooms (4 with fireplaces), inclusive gender-neutral spacesPros: The location is dreamy and remote with stunning lake views, and the spa is new and expansive.Cons: While most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, some critical reviewers noted there were limited food options.Founded in 1789, the Village of Aurora is a tiny, serene village in New York's pristine Finger Lakes region. Set on 350 acres of rolling farmland overlooking the lake, the property has five inns in all. Entry-level accommodations at the Aurora Inn have luxurious Queen beds outfitted in Frette linens, a comfortable seating area, and a writer's desk. Balconies with rocking chairs add charm in warmer months, as do gas fireplaces in the cooler ones.Known for its extensive wellness offerings, the Inns of Aurora has a 15,000-square-foot spa and healing center, The Spa at the Inns of Aurora, which takes a holistic approach to wellness. Indoor and outdoor spaces offer views of Cayuga Lake and there are six indoor and outdoor hydrotherapy pools, multiple meditation spaces, 10 treatment rooms (four outfitted with warming fireplaces), and inclusive gender-neutral spaces, along with unobstructed access to lush lavender fields for outdoor massages and relaxing strolls among nature trails. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Carillon Miami Wellness Resort At 70,000 square feet, Carillon Miami Wellness Resort is the largest spa center on the Eastern seaboard. Tripadvisor Book Carillon Miami Wellness ResortCategory: LuxuryLocation: Miami, FloridaTypical starting/peak price: $298/$625Best for: Couples, groups of friendsOn-site amenities: Multiple dining options, spa, wellness activities, fitness classes, beach clubSpa features: 70,000-square-foot Finnish spa and wellness facility with vitality tub, steam room, foot spa, cooling "igloo" room, experiential rain showers, thermal loungers, salt float bathPros: The spa has every treatment you could imagine, including innovative and high-tech approaches. Apartment-style lodgings are large and offer homey comfort.Cons: Critical reviews say the rooms are due for a sprucing.Located on the white sands of Miami Beach, Carillon Miami Wellness Resort is the only fully dedicated wellness resort in South Florida. Indeed, the 70,000-square-foot spa is the largest on the Eastern seaboard.Everything about staying here is plush, starting with well-appointed, apartment-sized accommodations that range from one- to two-bedroom layouts, starting at 720 square feet. They feature floor-to-ceiling windows with ocean views, a separate living room, a fully equipped kitchen, and a spa-like bathroom.Wellness offerings are abundant, including a range of ultra-high-tech services and amenities such as a futuristic cabin with a height-adjustable water bed, heated water mattress, color therapy, steam bath with aromatherapy, Vichy shower with six jets, and Vibro massage.​​Carillon also recently launched a touchless wellness program meant to target a range of issues like sleep health, anxiety, muscle recovery, weight loss, respiratory health, and mental and spiritual wellness.Come here to indulge with a one-of-a-kind thermal therapy experience, or sweat it out in 65 fitness classes held each week. Traditional Chinese medicine and a medical wellness division are also offered. Just note that spa treatments are not included in the room rate.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Peninsula Chicago Peninsula Chicago has 339 guest rooms and a sleek spa with an indoor pool. The Peninsula Chicago Book Peninsula ChicagoCategory: LuxuryLocation: Chicago, IllinoisTypical starting/peak prices: $399/$720Best for: Families, couples, groups of friends, business travelers On-site amenities: Multiple restaurants, rooftop lounge, spa, fitness center, pool, event venuesSpa features: Rejuvenation lounge with fireplace, yoga room, fitness center, half-Olympic poolPros: Peninsula Chicago is known for its top-end service, luxurious accommodations, and supremely walkable location on Chicago's Michigan Mile.Cons: Among mostly glowing reviews, few critical guests expressed higher hopes for the property given other experiences with the Peninsula brand.Located on the Magnificent Mile in the heart of Chicago's premier shopping district, this 339-guest room hotel features three restaurants, a rooftop lounge, and glam rooms. Even the entry-level guest rooms are some of the most spacious accommodations in town. Facing south over Superior Street, the Superior rooms are bright and airy with sophisticated decor in muted earth tones and signature blues alongside rich wood and cream leather accents.The Peninsula Chicago's spa is an exquisite urban retreat, with an indoor half-Olympic length swimming pool surrounded by floor-to-ceiling windows for jaw-dropping views of the city from the 19th floor.This Peninsula Chicago spa is the first hotel spa destination in the city to offer ultra-posh treatments using the famously expensive and splurge-worthy Biologique Recherche. There's also a relaxation lounge with a fireplace, a fully-equipped fitness center, and a yoga room. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Lake Austin Spa Resort Lake Austin Spa Resort covers 19 lakefront acres for a wellness getaway that feels a world away. Tripadvisor Book Lake Austin Spa ResortCategory: LuxuryLocation: Austin, TexasTypical starting/peak prices: $525/$1,450Best for: Couples, groups of friends, solo travelersOn-site amenities: Spa, pool, restaurant, boutique, fitness center, water sportsSpa features: Aster Café, private couples suites, more than 100 treatments and services, day passesPros: Room rates are all-inclusive, meaning your overnight price comes with three gourmet meals per day and all the fitness classes you can handle.Cons: The all-inclusive rate isn't totally all-encompassing as spa treatments are not included.Located 30 minutes from downtown Austin and speak on 19 lakefront acres, the Lake Austin Spa Resort feels tucked far away from any urban bustle. As an all-inclusive resort, the majority of offerings are covered by the rate. While it doesn't include spa treatments, it does include three gourmet meals made from ingredients grown on-site each day, as well as morning yoga classes, water sports on the lake, and stargazing sessions with an astrologer. Think of this as an adult version of a summer camp, where the emphasis is on mindfulness and fitness.Overnight guests stay in one of 40 French country-style accommodations, which range from quaint rooms with private meditation gardens to the elaborate Lady Bird Suite with a private hot tub. Each comes with fresh-cut daily flowers, Veuve Clicquot champagne upon arrival, a De'Longhi Lattissima Pro Espresso Machine, and toiletries with the spa's signature lavender scent, created from plants grown on-site.The 25,000-square-foot LakeHouse Spa offers fresh, seasonal dining at Aster Café, private couples suites, and a range of treatments using ancient and modern therapeutic techniques in a serene setting. COVID-19 procedures are available here. The Ritz-Carlton Bacara, Santa Barbara The Ritz-Carlton Bacara in Santa Barbara has the largest spa of any Ritz-Carlton in the country. Tripadvisor Book The Ritz-Carlton Bacara, Santa BarbaraCategory: LuxuryLocation: Santa Barbara, CaliforniaTypical starting/peak prices: $779/$1,379Best for: Couples, families, groups of friends, business travelersOn-site amenities: Pools, spa, multiple dining options, a 12,000-bottle wine collection and tasting room, event spaceSpa features: 42,000 square feet of indoor-outdoor space with fireside lounges, rooftop terrace, poolPros: The pools, beaches, and gardens here are all spectacular and the views can't be beaten. There is also a full suite of amenities and the service is exceptional.Cons: The large, sprawling property can pose a challenge for travelers with mobility issues.The Spa atThe Ritz-Carlton Bacara, Santa Barbara is a magnificent retreat, sprawling across 78 acres of lush land overlooking the Pacific. It has access to two beaches and offers three infinity-edge pools, two of which have gorgeous ocean views.Guest accommodations also have views of the sea, or the pool or garden from individual patios or balconies, and entry-level rooms start at a generous 450 square feet. The design is coastal, with dark woods and beams, Frette linens, deep soaking tubs, marble showers, and Asprey bath amenities. Newly debuted fireside garden rooms offer patios with private fire pits.The spa, however, is the standout feature, a stunning 42,000-square-foot sanctuary — and the largest out of all the Ritz-Carlton properties in the country. There are abundant indoor and outdoor spaces for relaxation, with fireside lounges, a rooftop terrace, a swimming pool, and more.The spa menu features locally inspired, luxury rituals that pay tribute to the scenic California landscape. For instance, the Hollywood facial is a decadent treatment integrating three of the industry's top-trending technologies: HydraFacialä, Nutraceuticals, and NuFace Microcurrent. Or branch out with the Spirulina Wrap, which uses live spirulina algae to revitalize the skin. Other services include acupuncture, massages, skincare, and hair and nail services.When it's time to eat, on-site restaurants Angel Oak steakhouse and 'O' Bar + Kitchen offer locally sourced cuisine and wines.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Castle Hot Springs Castle Hot Springs dates back to 1896 and was recently renovated. Tripadvisor Book Castle Hot SpringsCategory: LuxuryLocation: Morristown, ArizonaTypical starting/peak prices: $1,500/$2,100Best for: Couples, families, groups of friendsOn-site amenities: Resort pool, hot springs pools, on-property farm, Arizona's first Via Ferrata cable climbing courseSpa features: Multiple mineral pools, spa treatments in alfresco cabanas, yoga, meditationPros: Meals are included at this recently overhauled resort. Deeply steeped in history, it's all about wellness through local, natural means, such as an on-site farm operation and hot springs. Cons: While most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, critical reviewers noted spotty service compared with their expectation for the price point.Castle Hot Springs is Arizona's first luxury resort, originally founded in 1896 as a holistic wellness retreat. Situated 50 miles outside of Phoenix in the Sonoran Desert, the 34-room resort feels a world apart from the demands of urban life and incorporates ancient hot springs and a digital detox philosophy into every stay.Historically, visitors came for the minerals' cures for ailments like rheumatism, gout, arthritis, and general aches and pains, which the pools were said to relieve. More than 200,000 gallons of mineral-rich water still flow through the pools each day.All guest suites (bungalows, cottages, and cabins) feature outdoor stone tubs plumbed with hot springs water, and telescopes outside lodgings encourage stargazing. Wellness features heavily, with a slate of offerings including access to thermal waters, which cascade into three pools ranging from 96 degrees to 86 degrees. The natural waters take on colors that reflect the minerals running through them: Lithium is a deep purple shade, iron looks red, and oxidized copper is in blues and greens. Other wellness spa services, yoga, and meditation are provided in custom cabanas set along the spring water creek under palm trees for a wholly rejuvenating experience.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Miraval Arizona Resort & Spa Arizona's Miraval is known around the world as a go-to destination for wellness enthusiasts. Tripadvisor Book Miraval Arizona Resort & SpaCategory: LuxuryLocation: Tucson, ArizonaTypical starting/peak price: $1,138/$1,518Best for: Couples, groups of friends, solo travelersOn-site amenities: Spa, pool, fitness and wellness classes, tennis, golf, hiking on Camelback MountainSpa features: Ayurveda, energy work, traditional massage, acupuncture, multiple meditation spaces including two labyrinthsPros: Meals and activities are included, which packs the steep nightly room rate with value.Cons: Not everything is included. Expect to splash out a lot more for spa treatments and other extras. Situated on 400 acres outside Tucson, nestled in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Miraval is a well-established and world-renowned domestic wellness getaway.Guests are asked to unplug and tuck their devices away before checking into spacious suites that come with hot tubs, walk-in showers, fireplaces, dining areas, and private patios. Extra wellness-minded touches include an organic pillow menu, a Tibetan singing bowl, coloring books, a community journal, and an essential oil diffuser, available on request. Room rates also include a nightly credit, all meals, and more than 200 classes and activities. Spa treatments are not included, but shouldn't be missed at the Life in Balance Spa, which features a myriad of services including Ayurveda, energy work, traditional massage, and acupuncture.Many spaces on-site encourage reflection and meditation including two labyrinths, an outdoor kiva, and a designated quiet room with mountain views. Experiences here combine yoga, meditation, and wellness, with spiritual journeys, culinary workshops, and outdoor activities.COVID-19 procedures are available here. Four Seasons Resort Lanai and Sensei Lanai, A Four Seasons Resort Four Seasons Resort Lanai and Sensei Lanai offer wellness, activities, and natural beauty on the Hawaiian island. Tripadvisor Book Four Seasons Resort Lanai and Sensei Lanai, A Four Seasons ResortCategory: LuxuryLocation: Lanai, HawaiiTypical starting/peak prices: $1,700/$2,585Best for: Families (Four Seasons Resort Lanai only), couples, business travelers, groups of friends, solo travelers (Sensei Lanai)On-site amenities: Pools, gardens, wellness offerings, activities (including archery and shooting range), food and drink from celebrity chef Nobu Matsuhisa Spa features: Private spa hales with steam and infrared saunas, traditional Japanese soaking tubs, outdoor showers, pools, one-on-one healing sessions like guided meditation or nutrition, couples suites, locally inspired treatmentsPros: Wellness offerings here are unparalleled, especially at Sensei where it's the focus. Airfare from Honolulu on Lanai Air is always included with Sensei Lanai. The natural beauty and service are among the world's most impeccable. Cons: Kids are not permitted at Sensei Lanai, although they are doted upon at Four Seasons Resort Lanai.This secluded 90,000-acre paradise on Hawaii's island of Lanai offers luxe accommodations at the beachfront Four Seasons Resort Lanai or wellness destination, Sensei Lanai, A Four Seasons Resort.The Four Seasons Resort Lanai is perfectly luxe with 213 guest rooms, multiple outdoor restaurants (including Nobu Lanai), Four Seasons' Kids for All Seasons kids' club, a beach and pool with seating areas tucked among tropical gardens, luxury boutiques, and an array of included classes and events.But if wellness is on your mind, and you don't have kids in tow, choose the adults-only Sensei Lanai, A Four Seasons Resort instead, set on 24 acres where spa where wellness is the top priority.Visitors select a curated well-being experience or design their own a la carte itineraries from options that include guided sessions on mindset or nutrition, as well as spa treatments, salon services, and a range of land and sea activities. Daily small-group yoga, fitness, and meditation, as well as guided hikes and weekly lectures are included.The 96-room resort offers Chef Nobu Matsuhisa's classics as well as menu selections that incorporate Sensei's nutritional philosophy created in partnership with Sensei's co-founder Dr. David Agus. The outdoor facilities include a 24-hour fitness center, movement studios, a yoga pavilion and outdoor yoga spaces, an 18-hole putting course, onsen baths, an oasis pool with lap lanes, and gardens with lush flora as well as sculpture and art. COVID-19 procedures are available here. Amangiri Amangiri is the wellness favorite for celebrities and A-listers looking to recharge in the desert. TripAdvisor/emtrip27 Book AmangiriCategory: LuxuryLocation: Canyon Point, UtahTypical starting/peak prices: $1,931/$3,500Best for: Couples, familiesOn-site amenities: Restaurant, 25,000-square-foot Aman Spa, national park tours, private air toursSpa features: Redwood-paneled treatment rooms, movement and fitness studios, 2 steam rooms, yoga, pilates, holistic Navajo-inspired therapiesPros: Amangiri is surrounded by unparalleled natural beauty and privacy. The design and service are otherworldly, equally indulgent for adventurers and luxury lovers.Cons: Though this property is close to flawless, for the over-the-top price point, guests expect impeccable service and are hyper-aware of even the smallest shortcomings.Amangiri is a celeb-adored Utah property situated on 600 acres in a protected valley, famous for sweeping views over towering mesas and dramatically stratified rock facing Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. The resort is built around a spectacular swimming pool defined by a jaw-dropping stone escarpment. There are 34 suites, many with private swimming pools and roof terraces. Suites are large with clean lines and natural materials, reflecting the surrounding Utah desert. Think white stone floors, concrete walls, natural timbers, and blackened steel finishings. Each suite has a fireplace and an outdoor lounge area. The Wellness Center at Amangani is a relaxing retreat with four redwood-paneled treatment rooms, movement and fitness studios and two steam rooms. Book beauty treatments and restorative therapies inspired by the holistic wellbeing traditions of the Navajo, or sign up for a day of wildlife treks, a private yoga, or a pilates session. Nourishing treatments, seasonal rituals, and holistic massages are all designed to help you unwind. In 2021, the resort introduced the Cave Peak Stairway, an installation that rises 400 feet above the ground, for outrageous views of the property. Thrill-seekers can climb the 120 steps leading from the resort's existing Cave Peak Via Ferrata Trail with just open air below.COVID-19 procedures are available here. FAQ: Hotels with spas Can I use a hotel spa without staying overnight?Whether or not you may use a hotel spa without staying overnight depends on the individual hotel and its policies. In some cases, hotels restrict the use of their spas and pool facilities to guests only in order to keep the experience intimate and private. In other cases, non-overnight guests may pay for a day pass to access the facilities, either directly through the hotel or through a third-party platform such as ResortPass, or visit simply by booking a treatment.Does spa access always come with the cost of a room night?Staying at a hotel doesn't always guarantee spa entry. In some cases, such as Awana Spa in Las Vegas, the room night might cost as low as $97 but using the spa is not included in the price, and spa access starts at $100 for hotel guests. Access is included, however, with the purchase of a 50-minute or longer treatment. Most hotels on this list have similar policiesWhere are the best hotels with spas in the US?As demonstrated by this list, there are excellent destination hotel spas throughout the United States, from urban day spas to remote retreats. Many are clustered around destinations known for wellness, such as Arizona and California, or destinations known for healing natural environments, like Hawaii. Others are simply known for providing flat-out luxury to travelers with money to spend, such as in Miami or Las Vegas.Is it safe to stay in a hotel?The CDC advises that fully vaccinated people can safely travel domestically. While hotels do provide opportunities for face-to-face interactions with staff and other guests in common spaces like check-in desks, lobbies, and dining venues, experts say guests who exercise proper precautions can stay safely in hotels. No travel is completely risk-free and we recommend following CDC current guidelines as well as all applicable local protocols at the time of travel. How we selected the best hotels with spas Hotels with spas are located throughout the US only.Each has a Trip Advisor rating of "Very Good" or above with a substantial number of reviews, and is highly rated on other trusted traveler platforms like Booking.com.We focused on amenity-rich properties at a range of price points, starting from just $97 and ranging to well over $1,000 per night for famously posh properties with lavish inclusions.We looked for hotels with spas that had extensive offerings including innovative technologies and holistic wellness approaches. We also sought spas that were large and beautifully designed.In addition to spas, we selected properties with notable amenities like pools, restaurants, and other notable features. And we focused on desirable destinations, from flashy urban to serene natural settings.Each hotel promotes rigorous COVID-19 policies and protocols to reassure and protect guests. More of the most incredible hotels Tripadvisor The best luxury hotels in the USThe most affordable spa hotels in the worldThe best hotel pools in the USThe best hotels with private plunge poolsThe most romantic hotels in the USThe best hotels with affordable overwater bungalowsThe best beach hotels in the USThe best island hotels in the US Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 22nd, 2021