F-35 Stealth Fighter Only Mission Capable About Half The Time, Government Report Finds Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times, A new government report has found that U.S. F-35 fighter jets are only ready for a mission about half of the time, with the remaining time spent awaiting maintenance. On Thursday, the the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report (pdf) which concluded that the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, was only mission capable about 50 percent of the time for the A and B variants and 57 percent for the C variant of the fighter. These mission capability rates, the GAO report states, are "far below program goals" of 90 percent for the F-35A variant and 85 for the B and C variants. The F-35—which is operated by the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, as well as a host of U.S. allies—is one of the most advanced systems in Western arsenals. The 5th Generation fighter jet is made with an array of special radar-absorbent materials and other "stealth" features. The multirole fighter jet boasts capabilities for a range of different mission types, and the F-35B variant operated by the Marine Corps has unique short take-off and vertical landing capabilities. The F-35 is also one of the most expensive systems in Western arsenals. The U.S. Department of Defense has estimated the F-35 program will cost the department about $1.7 trillion over its life cycle. A majority of this estimated lifetime cost, $1.3 trillion, is expected to go toward maintenance. The GAO said it conducted this latest sustainment study of the F-35 in part because of this high program cost. Contributing to this low mission capability rate, the GAO report concluded the F-35 program is heavily reliant on contractors for maintenance work and the DOD has been slow to take over the program's responsibilities. The GAO report said the DOD is still working to determine the right balance of government and outside contractor roles to sustain the F-35 program going forward. The DOD also lacks both the technical data and training to support its desired program sustainment model. While the GAO report identifies challenges with the F-35 program, it also describes an opportunity to overhaul the program to both bring down costs and improve the maintenance process that drags on it. "The military services must take over management of F35 sustainment by October 2027 and have an opportunity to make adjustments—specifically to the contractor-managed elements," the report states. "Reassessing its approach could help DOD address its maintenance challenges and reduce costs." Repairs Department on Secretive Spare Parts List The new GAO report derived its conclusions about the F-35 program over the course of visits to two military F-35 depots and three military installations that host F-35 squadrons. A recurring problem for military aircraft maintainers at these depots and installations have limited information about the spare parts needed to keep their aircraft running. The list of parts for the F-35 program is maintained in a database that is proprietary to the program's prime contractor, Lockheed Martin Corporation. With all this proprietary information, the military has to outsource much of its maintenance to Lockheed Martin and its subcontractors. Not having ready access to part numbers hinders the repair of the aircraft because it delays the ordering and receipt of needed parts," the GAO report states. "Maintainers at one installation we visited told us that they would not need contractors on the flight line if they simply had access to part numbers. However, since access to part numbers is an issue that can affect readiness of the aircraft, units and squadrons need contractors on a daily basis." As of March 2023, the F-35 program had a backlog of over 10,000 F-35 parts in need of repair. In a press statement to NTD News, Lockheed Martin spokesperson Jacqueline Lorenzetti said the corporation provides "all data required under its F-35 government contracts and is committed to providing data required for the Department of Defense to sustain the aircraft under applicable sustainment contracts." Ms. Lorenzetti said the U.S. government has unlimited access to all Operation, Maintenance, Installation, and Training (OMIT) data for the aircraft. She also said 90 percent of parts in the F-35 program are performing better than expected and the average time that parts remain on F-35 aircraft before failure is more than twice that of a typical 4th Generation fighter jet. The GAO report provided a list of recommendations, advising the military to assess whether they or private contractors will take primary responsibility for various components of the F-35 program, as well as what resources and proprietary information the Department of the Air Force and Department of the Navy will require for these revised responsibilities. Ms. Lorenzetti said Lockheed Martin is partnering with the government to increase repair capacity for the F-35 fleet. "We stand ready to partner with the government as plans are created for the future of F-35 sustainment ensuring mission readiness and enabling deterrence," Ms. Lorenzetti said. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 23:20.....»»

Governments Start Calling For Price Controls, Rationing & CBDCs Come Next Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us, Last month in the middle of the surreal “Bidenomics” hype I published an article titled ‘Nothing Is Over: Inflation Is About To Come Back With A Vengeance.’  I outlined the misconceptions surrounding CPI and how it is not an accurate model for the effects of inflation.  I also noted that the index had been manipulated downwards by Joe Biden as he flooded the market with oil from the strategic reserves.  Because so many elements of the CPI are connected to energy, Biden had created an artificial drop in CPI using this strategy. I argued that as the strategic reserves ran out and Biden lost his leverage, CPI would rise again and prices on a number of necessities would climb.  This is happening now, with the biggest jump in CPI in 14 months and gas prices clawing back towards all-time highs. Inflation is not going away anytime soon, but the bigger issue at hand is who benefits most from inflation and rising prices? The answer might be obvious to some but many people are oblivious to the root cause of inflationary dysfunction and often see it as a consequence of random economic chaos rather than a product of clever engineering. The truth is, banking oligarchs and political authorities revel in the inflationary tidal wave because it is a perfect opportunity to institute far reaching socialist controls over resources. In most cases central bankers are the primary culprits behind the creation of an inflationary event, and the word “creation” best applies because it is nearly impossible for overt inflation to occur without them. While money supply is not the only factor when dealing with inflation (sorry purists, but there are indeed other causes), it is the most important. More money chasing less resources triggers supply-side instability and prices go up. Central banks have a number of excuses as to why they “need” to conjure up more dollars or pesos or pounds or marks, but there is no doubt that they know what the ultimate end result will be. It’s happened too many times for them not to know… These inflation events trigger a predictable set of dominoes in society as well as in economy and finance. Price spikes, diminished savings, rising poverty, rising crime, and rising interest rates – This is then followed in most cases by failed rate hikes, more inflation, then more hikes, diminishing foreign investment in debt, foreign currency dumps (causing more inflation), plunging consumer spending and job losses. This same pattern has been witnessed from 1920s Weimar Germany to 1970s America to 1990s Yugoslavia to 2000s Argentina and Venezuela and beyond. But what happens next? In each case the trend leads first to price controls on producers and distributors, which ultimately fail. Then comes government rationing and the complete takeover of necessities including the food supply. Think it can’t happen in the US? It already has. In 1971 Richard Nixon issued Executive Order 11615, (under the Economic Stabilization Act which was established in 1970); the order demanded a 90 day freeze on wages and prices in order to counter inflation. It was an exceedingly rare action outside of a world war and conveniently took place during the election cycle. Keep in mind, the real inflationary crisis had not happened yet, but the price controls gave markets a short term boost and gave Nixon an election win. In 1973, controls returned during the Arab Oil Embargo. They failed and resulted in long term gas price inflation. Gerald Ford then called for American businesses to institute price controls under his “Whip Inflation Now” campaign; it was the subject of ridicule and was even made fun of by a young Joe Biden (who now falsely claims to have solved his own inflation problem with his useless Inflation Reduction Act). Finally, Jimmy Carter introduced price and wage “guidelines” (controls) which rewarded businesses that raised prices below a set percentage. Any businesses that raised prices above the percentage and made a pre-tax profit above the previous two years would be penalized. In no case could a firm increase its dollar profit by more than 6.5 percent unless the excess was attributable to increased unit sales volume. This plan, of course, also failed to stop inflation. Ultimately, the Fed had to jack rates up to around 20% in 1980-1981 to stop exponential inflation, which led to considerable business losses and high unemployment. The problem is simple, price controls lead to lost profit incentive which leads to less production. Less production leads to less supply and less supply leads to rising prices. This is on top of the root cancer that is fiat money creation. Politicians will rarely if ever address the actual cause of an inflationary crisis:  The government and the central banks. Instead, they try to blame free markets, “greedy” businesses and profit taking in times of distress. Sadly, the pattern is repeating again today as it is now becoming clear to the public that central bank interest rate hikes are not having a significant effect and the public is still paying between 25%-50% more on the majority of goods they purchase compared to three years ago. As inflation grinds forward, multiple leftist governments are now openly discussing price controls. Recently, Canada’s Justin Trudeau ordered top grocery chains in the country to cut prices while admonishing them for making higher profits, insinuating that they are the cause of inflation.  In Canada, profit margins among grocers are actually flat due to rising costs. If one looks only at raw profits without taking into account inflation in producer costs as well as transportation, distribution and wages, then it might look like these companies are pulling in the cash. There is zero evidence to support this claim. What Trudeau is doing is pretending to be stupid while engaging in a very clever strategy of scapegoating. It’s the government and the central bankers that are the foundational cause of inflation, but by blaming individual business sectors he sets the stage for government enforced price controls. When these fail and create a crisis in supply he will then introduce rationing, and once the government has conditioned the public to accept rationing the elites then control the entire population’s access to food and necessities. Some people may say “Well that’s Canada, what about the US?” The same agenda is in progress in America, but is being pursued at a city and state level. For example, the socialist Mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson, just announced a plan for the city (using state and federal tax funds) to build government run grocery stores in “food deserts.” These are places where a combination of inflation and shoplifting has forced grocers to leave certain areas of the city. The Chicago program would include price control measures and there’s ample opportunity for these institutions to use rationing in the future. Similar projects are also being considered in other cities across the country. In other words, leftist cities are scaring away businesses while planning to replace “essential services” with government run operations. I wrote about the inevitability of government rationing after price controls last year in my article ‘The Stagflation Trap Will Lead To Universal Basic Income And Food Rationing.’  Rationing generally comes when price controls fail. It’s been a long time since the US has faced these kinds of conditions but we are likely to in the near future. This time around, I believe that if the establishment is given rationing power they will never let go again. Rationing could also be used to lure the public into accepting Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).  Government run food centers can easily restrict purchases of goods to a limited list of items, and also demand payment using specific methods (like digital currencies).  In a short period of time, cash would be removed because retailers, pressured by government, will refuse to accept it. It’s hard to say what the future will bring in terms of politics, given that the next presidential campaign is looking like a complete circus. Historically speaking, though, both Democrat and Republican presidents have tried price controls in the past. Public pressure must be applied (at the state level at minimum) to stop this from happening. As convenient as it might seem to blame producers and distributors, the real threat is coming from governments and banks. We cannot let the people who caused the crisis also benefit from it by giving them even more power. * * * If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 23:40.....»»

China Says Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Is Unrealistic Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, Phasing out fossil fuels is unrealistic as oil, natural gas, and coal will continue to play a crucial role in global energy supply and energy security, China’s special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said this week in a speech obtained by Reuters. “It is unrealistic to completely phase out fossil fuel energy,” Xie, who will represent China at COP28 in Dubai in November, told ambassadors in Beijing ahead of the climate summit. China is the world’s biggest consumer of coal and the largest importer of crude oil. Despite soaring renewable power capacity installations in recent years, China continues to consume growing volumes of coal, oil, and natural gas and continues to approve the construction of new coal-fired power capacity. China, as well as India, has fought to have “phase down” instead of “phase out” in the language at all summits on climate and energy in recent years. China is also building or planning to build some 366 gigawatts (GW) in new coal generation capacity, accounting for some 68% of global planned new coal capacity as of 2022. This is according to a report earlier this year by climate think tank Global Energy Monitor, which also found that China accounted for more than half of the new global coal generation capacity that came online last year.  During the first half of 2023 alone, China approved more than 50 GW of new coal power, Greenpeace said in a report last month. That’s more than it did in all of 2021, the environmental campaign group said. China is relying on coal to avoid blackouts as the economy reopened after the Covid lockdowns. During the first half of this year, coal production, coal imports, and coal-fired electricity generation surged and offset a significant decline in power output at China’s massive hydropower capacity due to insufficient rainfall and drought. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 13:05.....»»

In Reversal, Biden Agrees To 'Small Number' Of ATACMS Long-Range Missiles For Ukraine Up until this week, the White House has consistently signaled that Biden is not in favor of giving Ukraine long-range missiles, chiefly on fears they would be used to attack deep inside Ukrainian territory. But on Friday it was revealed that as Zelensky visited the Oval Office the day prior, President Biden told him he's willing provide long-range ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles for the first time. But perhaps displaying the administration's reluctance on the issue, this is being reported as a "limited" or "small number" - according to officials. Via AP: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits with wounded Ukrainian soldiers at Staten Island University Hospital, in New York, Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. "Officials said that a small number of ATACMS will be sent in coming weeks and more could be provided later," The Wall Street Journal says. Will the "more" that "could" be provided later be contingent on Kiev not using the initial deliveries to attack Russia?  The WSJ suggests this initial delivery could be more symbolic than anything, given it's meant to encourage European allies to step up:  The U.S. provision of ATACMS could also encourage Germany to provide its Taurus long-range cruise missile. Berlin has indicated that it prefers to move with Washington in providing new types of military aid. Also looming large in the background is Poland's declaration that it will not longer provide arms to Ukraine, and will instead stick to its own defense as the top priority. Kiev no doubt fears that other Western allies could be encouraged to abandon support by Warsaw's surprise about-face. As this fresh decision to give Ukraine the ATACMS, it was only on Wednesday that US sources told Fox News Pentagon correspondent Lucas Tomlinson that the Ukrainians wouldn't get the advanced system "anytime soon". He wrote the following... "Ukraine will not get ATACMS, the 190-mile-range tactical ballistic missiles, urgently requested by Zelensky to destroy Russian forces in Crimea and other Russian-held territory ‘anytime soon,’ officials say. News comes one day before Zelensky visits Biden at the White House." But now with this reversal in White House policy by the week's end... perhaps the Biden team didn't want Zelensky and his delegation to leave Washington completely empty handed, and hence the ATACMS announcement is a consolation prize of sorts. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 13:25.....»»

America Has Fallen, And It Can't Get Up Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Public, The Border Has Fallen During the Trump years, Democrats attacked Trump as cruel for separating migrant parents and children. “A policy that separates young children from their parents isn’t a ‘deterrent.’ It’s unconscionable,”  said Biden in 2018. “A policy that traumatizes children isn’t a bargaining chip. It’s abhorrent.” Two migrants drag another through barbed wire on the border (Getty Images) But Dr. Paul Wise, a pediatrician in charge of monitoring the treatment of migrant children in the custody of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, reports that the Biden administration’s U.S. Customs and Border Protection has been separating children as young as eight from their parents. “Interviews with parents and children found that there were minimal or no opportunities for phone contact or direct interaction between parent and child,” Wise said in the court filing. “The separation of families and the lack of interaction while in custody do significant, and potentially lasting, harm to children, particularly younger children.” There’s no denying the crisis. In some areas, the border between Texas and Mexico looks like a refugee camp in sub-Saharan Africa. There are thousands of African and Latin American migrants coming through daily. More than two million came last year, over 5,000 per day, and nearly as many will come this year. The Biden administration rightly points out that it tried telling migrants not to come. “Do not come,” said Vice President Kamala Harris in Guatemala in 2021. But Biden had made clear from 2018 to 2020 that he would reverse President Trump’s immigration policies. And so, many more migrants are coming. They also do so because they know we won’t turn them away. Doing so would be cruel. Children, babies, and mothers would die. And the photographs and videos of the horror would travel the world in minutes or seconds. If you doubt that this is true, watch the videos of parents sending their children through barbed wire fences and crossing the dangerous Rio Grande River. That hardly means we’re helpless to stop the flow. This year, for the first time, US Border Control is encountering more migrants from outside Latin America than from within it. That means people are flying from Africa to Latin America and entering through Mexico. Is this part of a plan by Democratic leaders to expand the voting rolls? Some Republicans say so. And in California, some progressive politicians want to give undocumented immigrants the right to vote. They already provide official California state driver’s licenses and IDs. But if that was the plan, it’s turning the nation against them The migrants are overwhelming not just the state of Texas but also New York, whose Democratic leaders, both Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul, say bluntly that the city is filled up. “The national government has turned its back on New York City,” said Adams in April. “This is impacting our schools, public safety, our ability to take care of those who were already in shelters. This is impacting the entire city.” Hochul is now proposing eliminating New York’s “right to shelter” law. Maybe the progressive Democrats who run Chicago, Illinois, have more room — or compassion? Not quite. “Let me state this clearly,” said Chicago’s progressive new Mayor. “The city of Chicago cannot go on welcoming new arrivals safely and capably without significant support and immigration policy changes.” What, then, is to be done? The Biden administration doesn’t even bother offering an answer. Democrats can only say what must not be done. We must not build a wall. We must not deport. Anyone. We must instead find jobs for the millions of mostly unskilled and uneducated immigrants to the US who, critics say, will drive down working-class wages and tax already over-stressed housing, educational, and health systems. As a result, we’re seeing a return of child labor to the United States, as slaughterhouses illegally hire teenage migrants on the night shift, who are scalded by caustic chemicals and maimed in industrial accidents. Just a few weeks ago, New York’s Governor Hochul tried to stay above the battle between New York City Mayor Adams and the Biden White House. That all changed late last month when Hochul took off the kid gloves. “We’ve managed thus far without substantive support from Washington,” she said in what her aides billed as a major speech. In the end, nobody will be able to measure how much of the crisis is driven by Biden and how much of it is from the collapse of civilization within the African and Latin American nations themselves. What’s clear is that if we don’t fix this, it won’t be just the border that’s fallen. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 13:45.....»»

McCarthy Throws Fit, Accuses GOP Hardliners Of Wanting To "Burn The Whole Place Down" As Shutdown Looms House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has sent the House home for the week without a resolution on the looming government shutdown, after members of the Freedom Caucus refused to play ball, scuttling plans to pass a Continuing Resolution (a 30-day band-aid to avoid government shutdown), and putting 11 appropriations bills in jeopardy which McCarthy is hoping to pass in the next nine days. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) McCarthy on Thursday accused the (actual) conservatives of wanting to "burn the whole place down." “This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down.” — After House Republicans once again failed to pass a basic procedural rule to fund the Pentagon, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hits some members of his own conference pic.twitter.com/Qt4AR71jP3 — The Recount (@therecount) September 21, 2023  But wait, there's more! Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), meanwhile, has a bill lined up that could form the framework for the Continuing Resolution designed to keep the government operating beyond Sept. 30, according to Punchbowl News. While House Republicans are pointlessly grinding through their version of FY2024 spending bills next week, Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will likely send the House a bipartisan CR. And yes, it’ll probably include billions of dollars in Ukraine aid as well as disaster relief funding and plenty of provisions that conservatives abhor. At that point, McCarthy will have a choice to make. Will he bring up the Senate-approved CR and pass it with a mix of Democratic and Republican votes? Will he try to amend it and see if the Senate will bite? (They probably won’t.) Or will he ignore it and shut the government down? This is a decision that could define McCarthy’s speakership. On Friday, the House Rules Committee is slated to mark up four spending bills, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, Defense and Agriculture, as part of the GOP leadership's plan to get the 11 appropriations bills through the chamber. The four amount to $1.52 trillion in total spending - tens of billions less than what the Senate will accept. After that, House members will return on Tuesday evening according to GOP leadership aides. Punchbowl suggests that a Senate-led CR may have always been in the cards - as any bill to fund the government must be bipartisan, and McCarthy has been unwilling to put a bipartisan solution on the floor out of fear of an open war with his hardline conservatives. When lawmakers return Tuesday, they'll have just five days left to avoid a shutdown. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 10:45.....»»

"That 70s Show" Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s. The irony was that the actors playing the teenagers were not born in the late 70s and had never experienced life during that period. Many alive today cannot fathom a lifestyle devoid of the internet, cable television, mobile phones, and social media. Oh…the horrors. Yet, today, almost 50 years later, financial commentators, many of whom were not alive at the time, suggest that inflation and yields will repeat “That 70s Show.” Understandably, the increase in inflation and interest rates from their historic lows is cause for concern. As James Bullard noted, “Inflation is a pernicious problem,” which is why the Federal Reserve lept into action. “When the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to quash inflation last year, it did so with the goal of avoiding a painful repeat of the 1970s, when inflation spun out of control and economic malaise set in.” – CNN That concern of “spiraling inflation” remains the key concern of the Federal Reserve in its current monetary policy decisions. It has also pushed many economists to point back at history, using “That 70s Show” period as the yardstick for justifying their concerns about a resurgence of inflation. “The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Then, as the economy contracted, he changed course and started cutting rates. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. Volcker brought double-digit inflation to heel — but only by raising borrowing costs high enough to trigger back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s that at one point pushed unemployment above 10%. ‘If they don’t stop inflation now, the historical analogy [indicates] it’s not going to stop, and it’s going to get worse,’ said Richardson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine.” However, such may be an oversimplification to suggest Burns was wrong and Volker was right. The reason is the economy today is vastly different than during “That 70s Show.” Today Is Very Different Than The 1970s During the 70s, the Federal Reserve was entrenched in an inflation fight. The end of the Bretton Woods and the failure of wage/price controls combined with an oil embargo sent inflation surging. That surge sent markets crumbling under the weight of rising interest rates. Ongoing oil price shocks, spiking food costs, wages, and budgetary pressures led to stagflation through the end of that decade. What was most notable was the Fed’s inflation fight. Like today, the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflationary pressures from exogenous factors. In the late 70s, the oil crisis led to inflationary pressures as oil prices fed through a manufacturing-intensive economy. Today, inflation resulted from monetary interventions that created demand against a supply-constrained economy. Such is a critical point. During “That 70s Show,” the economy was primarily manufacturing-based, providing a high multiplier effect on economic growth. Today, the mix has reversed, with services making up the bulk of economic activity. While services are essential, they have a very low multiplier effect on economic activity. One of the primary reasons is that services require lower wage growth than manufacturing. While wages did rise sharply over the last couple of years, such was a function of the economic shutdown, which created a supply/demand gap in the employment matrix. As shown, full-time employment as a percentage of the population fell sharply during the pandemic lockdown. However, with full employment back to pre-pandemic levels, wage growth declines as employers regain control over the labor balance. Furthermore, the economic composite of wages, interest rates, and economic growth remain highly correlated between “That 70s Show” and today. Such suggests that while inflation rose with the supply/demand imbalance created by the shutdown, the return to normalcy will lower inflation as economic activity slows. With a correlation of 85%, the inflationary decline will be coincident with economic growth, interest rates, and wages. Unlike “That 70s Show,” where economic growth and wages were rising steadily, which allowed for higher levels of interest rates and inflation, There is a singular reason why a repeat of that period is quite impossible. The Debt Burden And Economic Weakness What is notable about “That 70s Show” is that it was the culmination of events following World War II. Following World War II, America became the “last man standing.” France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others were devastated, with little ability to produce for themselves. America found its most substantial economic growth as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding a war-ravaged globe. But that was just the start of it. In the late ’50s, America stepped into the abyss as humankind took its first steps into space. The space race, which lasted nearly two decades, led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America. These advances, combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, fostered high levels of economic growth, increased savings rates, and capital investment, which supported higher interest rates. Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while inflation increased and interest rates rose in tandem, the average household could sustain its living standard. The chart shows the difference between household debt versus incomes in the pre- and post-financialization eras. With the Government running a deep deficit with debt exceeding $32 trillion, consumer debt at record levels, and economic growth rates fragile, consumers’ ability to withstand higher inflation and interest rates is limited. As noted previously, the “gap” between income and savings to sustain the standard of living is at record levels. The chart shows the gap between the inflation-adjusted cost of living and the spread between incomes and savings. It currently requires more than $6500 of debt annually to fill the “gap.“ It Is Not The Same While the Fed is currently engaged “in the fight of its life,” trying to quell inflation, The economic differences are vastly different today. Due to the heavy debt burden, the economy requires lower interest rates to sustain even meager economic growth rates of 2%. Such levels were historically seen as “pre-recessionary,” but today, they are something economists hope to maintain. This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels. Such suggests we will witness an economy: Subject to more frequent recessionary spats, Lower equity market returns, and A stagflationary environment as wage growth remains suppressed while the cost of living rises. Changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems. While many want to suggest that the Federal Reserve is worried about “That 70s Show,” we would be lucky to have the economic strength to support such a concern. The Fed’s bigger worry should be when the impact of higher rates causes a financial break in a debt-dependent financial system. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 11:05.....»»

Russia Confirms Ukrainian Missile Strike On Black Sea Fleet HQ, Personnel Missing.....»»

Has The Fed F**ked Up? By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack Has the Federal Reserve fucked up? Markets were a bit unsure of what the decisions would be from the Federal Reserve. Looking at monetary policy history, they would have seemed wise to pause interest rates increases. Looking at the US bond market, with it deeply inverted, this has typically been seen as a sign of “over-tightening” by the Federal Reserve. The 2 year to 10 year spread is its most negative since the 1970s, and previous bouts of yield inversion have preceded financial problems. And if you look around, there are loads of indicators that show the economy is beginning to roll over. US quits rates is one, but you have a huge choice in indicators to choose from to be honest. And with lag in monetary policy effects, it is easy to understand why the Federal Reserve chose caution over action. The economics and the back testing all tell you, now is the time to buy long dated bonds. Many market commentators also recommend bonds. And the market has responded. Inflows into TLT have been huge, even as TLT itself has been poor. The problem with this analysis is not the economics, but the politics. If you think the US government is fully ok with rising unemployment, and/or constrained by fiscal deficits, and will act to reduce these deficit, then buying bonds is completely rational. The problem is that you know that the next Presidential election will be contested between Trump and Biden. Both are proven spenders. There is no more austerity in US politics because Trump proved it’s a losing electoral strategy, just as Reagan and Thatcher proved austerity in the 1980s could be an election winning strategy. In a new pro-labor world, central banks have to act as a restraint, and when they don’t the bond market rebels. You can see despite the pause, the 30 year US treasury yield hit new highs. This is of course a problem, as the US housing market feeds directly off the yield on the 30 year Treasury. The Fed “pause” actually will do nothing much for the economy. I am fairly convinced we have moved back to a big-government, pro labor world, which puts the long end of the yield curve in a bear market. Buying at 4.5% makes very little sense to me. In reality, long dated Treasuries are a structural short, and I read steep inversion as a sign that it is a good time to short! An inverted yield cure, means you can sell a 30 year Treasury, put the proceeds in cash, and make a positive spread! When I think about interest rate policy, the pressure not to increase rates must be intense. The amount of wealth that has been built on transforming credit to equity is vast, and where there is money, there is political power. But the votes are no longer with the wealthy, they are with the poor, so policy is pro-labor for as far out as I can see. My preferred trade of long GLD/Short TLT also took out new highs on the Fed pause. One other trade I recommended for a new pro-labour world was Japanese banks. They continue to steam ahead. Historically speaking they have tended to act as deflationary canaries in the mine. Japanese banks are not point to an imminent slowdown requiring interest rate cuts! In the new political environment, central banks need to be aggressive to keep inflation under control. The pause is already been seen as a mistake by bond markets. I expect the Fed to resume raising rates shortly. I ultimately suspect treasury yields get back to double digits. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 11:45.....»»

Texas Declares "Invasion" As 10s Of 1000s Illegally Cross Southern Border.....»»

Watch: Rand Paul Blasts "Corrupt" Zelensky "Begging For More Money".....»»

Government Shutdown Could Push Unemployment To 4%, Triggering Recession Start Signal According to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, online betting markets see a 69% chance of a federal government shutdown starting Oct. 1, when appropriations will lapse if lawmakers can’t agree on a funding bill (in reality, the odds of a shutdown are just about 100%, although after a few weeks all should go back to normal as it always does after people get bored with the theatrics). What happens then? According to Goldman, a government-wide shutdown would reduce quarterly annualized growth by around 0.2% for each week it lasted after accounting for modest private sector effects. Goldman's baseline is that a shutdown could last for 2-3 weeks (the Trump government shutdown, the longest in history, lasted 35 days, from Dec 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 2019). Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics estimates a month-long government shutdown could temporarily push up the unemployment rate in October, triggering a popular rule for identifying the start of a recession. And while the hit to unemployment and GDP growth will reverse once the funding impasse is resolved, Bloomberg's baseline is for the shutdown to have a mild negative impact overall due to forgone economic activity and uncertainty. Bloomberg also speculates that in an extreme tail event, the maximum hit to 4Q GDP would be a drag of 2.8% if the shutdown lasts for the entire quarter. Considering that the current Bloomberg survey median sees just 0.4% GDP growth for 4Q, a shutdown that lasts all quarter would push 4Q growth deep into negative territory, something we first said on Tuesday. However, as noted above, past shutdowns have, on average, been much shorter. The eight government shutdowns since 1982 have lasted an average of two weeks. The longest one — in 2018 — lasted five weeks. Assuming a two-week duration, the shutdown will knock 0.5% off annualized quarterly GDP growth while it’s ongoing, and raise the unemployment rate by 0.1% in October. The effects will mostly reverse within 4Q once the funding stalemate is resolved, but forgone economic activity and the uncertainty from the shock could produce a net drag of 0.1% on 4Q GDP. In the scenario of a month-long shutdown — and assuming the unemployment rate remains at 3.8% in September — October’s unemployment rate could increase to 4.0%. That would meet the Sahm Rule threshold for identifying a recession. At the same time, a shutdown also would affect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ ability to collect real-time unemployment statistics — potentially affecting the accuracy of those data when they’re ultimately released with a delay (not like that matters since most BLS data is already highly manipulated and "goalseeked"), to wit: A shutdown beginning Oct. 1 and lasting two weeks — well within the normal range based on government shutdowns over the past 30 years — would likely delay the October jobs report, due Nov. 3. That might tip the scales toward an extended hold for a data-dependent Fed that won’t have all the data in hand. Bloomberg's bottom line: In the event of a protracted government shutdown, the FOMC will face a uniquely uncertain economic environment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting — and that may convince officials to hold rates steady again rather than hike. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 12:45.....»»

Green Bubble Burst: US ESG Fund Closures In 2023 Surpass Total Of Previous Three Years For years, green and socially responsible investments, aka ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), have dominated the investing world. However, according to Bloomberg, a seismic shift is underway as BlackRock and other money managers unwound an increasing number of 'green' products amid soaring backlash and investor scrutiny.  Data from Morningstar shows State Street, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Janus Henderson Group, and Hartford Funds Management Group have unwound more than two dozen ESG funds this year. The latest unwind comes from BlackRock, who told regulators last Friday it plans to close two ESG emerging-market bond funds with total assets of $55 million.  Source: Bloomberg So far this year, the number of ESG funds closing is more than the last three years combined. This trend comes as investors pull money out of these funds as the ESG bubble has likely popped.  We asked this question in early summer: Is The ESG Investing Boom Already Over? In January, BlackRock's Larry Fink told Bloomberg TV at the World Economic Forum in Davos that ESG investing has been tarnished:  "Let's be clear, the narrative is ugly, the narrative is creating this huge polarization. " Fink continued: "We are trying to address the misconceptions. It's hard because it's not business any more, they're doing it in a personal way. And for the first time in my professional career, attacks are now personal. They're trying to demonize the issues." By June, Fink's BlackRock dropped the term "ESG" following billions of dollars pulled out of its funds by Republican governors, most notably, $2 billion by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The crux of the issue that Republican lawmakers have with radical ESG funds is that they were trying to impose 'green' initiatives on the corporate level to force change in society, and many of these initiatives would be widely unpopular at the ballot box during elections.  Remember these comments from Fink? Alyssa Stankiewicz, associate director for sustainability research at Morningstar, told Bloomberg, "We have definitely seen demand drop off in 2022 and 2023."  Also, let's not forget about the 'greenwashing' across ESG industry.  Matt Lawton, T. Rowe Price Group Inc.'s sector portfolio manager in the Fixed Income Division, recently concluded: "It's becoming increasingly difficult to find credible sustainability-linked bonds."  The tide is reversing for Fink: "Backfire: World's Fourth Largest Iron Ore Producer Stops Purchasing Carbon Offsets." Don't forget this: "McDonald's Scrubs Mentions Of "ESG" From Its Website." Oops, Mr. Fink.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 06:55.....»»

Teamsters Want Senate Investigation Into Yellow's Bankruptcy By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves The Teamsters union called on the U.S. Senate this week to investigate Yellow’s bankruptcy as part of a broader investigation the lawmaking body’s judiciary committee is conducting on “corporate manipulation of Chapter 11 bankruptcy.” Chapter 11 filings are more and more being used as a path to liquidate assets instead of attempting to restructure operations and outstanding obligations. “Yellow is trying to fast track liquidation,” said Fred Zuckerman, Teamsters general secretary-treasurer, in a statement. “We haven’t had bankruptcy reform in this country for nearly two decades. We need to take this opportunity to right the wrongs at Yellow and prevent them from happening again.” He said that more than 22,000 union employees are out of work even though they conceded to more than $5 billion in wages and benefits concessions over the past 14 years to keep Yellow in business. The statement also took issue with retention bonuses totaling $4.6 million, which the company paid ahead of its bankruptcy petition. The payments are not uncommon in bankruptcy proceedings and are used to retain key executives, who are often integral in helping to wind down an estate. “Yellow approved millions in executive bonuses in June at the same exact time that they were voluntarily choosing not to pay millions in worker health care and pension benefits, said Sean O’Brien, Teamsters general president. “Workers in this country need real protections against corporations who game the system. We need real reform now that puts workers first in this process.” As tensions between Yellow and the Teamsters grew and talks over a proposed change of operations broke down, the company said it would withhold benefits contribution payments totaling more than $50 million in efforts to preserve cash and keep its doors open. Facing a suspension of health benefits, the union issued a strike notice, which resulted in freight fleeing the carrier’s network. Yellow eventually ceased operations on July 30, filing for bankruptcy one week later. The Teamsters statement said “expedited liquidation would preclude a potential purchase of Yellow’s assets from any party that may want to re-establish operations.” However, virtually all of the company’s customers had pulled their shipments by late July, with most employees being dismissed around that time. The few employees remaining currently are helping customers retrieve freight from the network and preparing assets for auction. On Friday, a Delaware bankruptcy court judge approved some key orders, including bidding procedures for the asset sales and a debtor-in-possession financing package to fund the unwinding of the estate. Private less-than-truckload carrier Estes Express Lines has placed the leading bid for Yellow’s portfolio of 174 terminals. It entered a $1.525 billion stalking horse bid that beat out a previous offer from LTL carrier Old Dominion Freight Line. The winner of the stalking horse bid, which sets the price floor for the assets to be sold, is expected to be announced Friday. The rolling stock that Yellow owns, which includes approximately 12,000 tractors and 35,000 trailers, could hit the auction block next month. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 07:20.....»»

With Most Central Banks Ending Their Tightening Cycle, The BOJ Remains Too Terrified To Even Start With a growing number of central banks either ending their hiking cycle (BOE, SNB, Riksbank, and absent an oil price shock, the Fed too), or even actively easing (PBOC, Brazil), Japan remains the glaring monetary policy outlier it has been for the past 30 years, and despite soaring inflation that has been above the 2% inflation target since April 2022 (and even above US CPI at times) overnight the BOJ once again refused to even begin its long overdue policy tightening, when despite growing speculation that the central bank will at least set the groundwork for an end to YCC if not NIRP to tame the imploding Japanese lira yen, the BOJ voted unanimously to maintain its current policy as expected, with its 10-year JGB yield target at about 0%, the policy balance rate at -0.1% and kept yield curve control unchanged. And in a slap to the face of those expecting the central bank to at least hint that it is catastrophically behind the curve when it comes to controlling inflation, It also left its forward guidance unchanged, and noted “extremely high uncertainties” over prices and the economy and forecast inflation to decelerate. The BOJ also made no changes to its assessment of the economy and prices, which were revised upward in the previous Outlook Report. Specifically, its statement maintained the view that "Japan's economy has recovered moderately." In terms of individual items, it again stated that "consumption has increased steadily at a moderate pace," and that business fixed investment has also "increased moderately." On the inflation front, it adjusted its assessment of core CPI inflation, which has started to slow recently, to “has been at around 3 percent recently,” from “has been in the range of 3.0-3.5 percent.” Its view on inflation expectations was unchanged, as “have shown some upward movements again.” The BOJ also made no revisions to its view on risk factors, reiterating that "it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices." During his press conference following the policy announcement, governor Ueda, asked about his recent comments alluding to the possibility of confirming a virtuous inflation trend by year-end, a condition for policy normalization — clarified that the “distance to ending negative rates” hasn’t really changed. He explained he had simply wanted to avoid ruling anything out and limiting the BOJ’s options. Ueda also reiterated that when the goal of sustained 2% inflation is in sight, the BOJ will consider ending its YCC policy as well as raising interest rates. He reiterated that inflation should slow more clearly in coming months, although the recent deceleration was less than previously expected. Kuroda's successor said that the BOJ has long placed a greater emphasis on the risk of tightening too soon over the possibility of being behind the curve in raising rates. He says there’s no change to this “risk management” tendency. Speaking of the currency, Ueda said it’s desirable for currency rates to reflect economic fundamentals and for them to move in a stable fashion, although he declined to comment on "short-term" currency moves, which have seen the yen plunge as the worst performing major this year. Of course, the yen - which has been the Developed World's Turkish lira this year as it has cratered from 130 to 148, weakened even more on what was widely seen as a dovish BOJ stance, sliding 0.5% to about 148.3 per dollar. The drop may have been restrained by comments from government officials that they are ready to act on sharp moves. And indeed, while some were expecting the USDJPY to immediately spike above 150 after anything except a hawkish BOJ statement - with rate differentials to the US entering nosebleed territory - the contained drop may have been explained by what National Australia Bank noted was a warning that the BOJ is ready to intervene in the FX markets on the Ministry of Finance’s behalf at a moment's notice. "There is an addition of a paragraph in the BOJ statement that was not there in July, which concludes ‘it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices’," says Ray Attrill, strategist in Sydney. “Intervention is of course MOF’s not BOJ’s call, but BOJ will evidently be fully onside with this should MOF so choose” Attrill said adding that “taken together with Mr Suzuki’s comments earlier, I think its pretty clear we should expect a burst of FX intervention one side or other of 150.” “As such, risk-reward doesn’t favor being long USD/JPY at current levels”, although with the USDJPY fast approaching 150, it appears that many disagreed. Ultimately, the question of when the BOJ intervenes will be a political one: there is only so much inflation Japan's long-suffering population can sustain, and at some point - quite soon - they will make it very clear that they will demand a different PM if the current one is willing to risk currency collapse just to preserve fake bond market stability for a few months longer. Stocks were also down, however, despite the sliding yen with the Topix closing 0.3% lower and the Nikkei 225 posting a 0.5% decline. JGBs rose, with 10-year futures up 16 ticks to 145.46. Cash bonds were mostly flat, with the 10-year yield holding at 0.745%, the highest since 2013. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 07:39.....»»

Futures Rebound After Three Day Rout As Rates Ease From 2007 High US equity futures rebounded from a furious three-day selloff at the end of a bruising week for investors which sent markets to the lowest level in over a month as investors are forced to accept the idea of higher-for-longer interest rates (at least until the Fed once again breaks something, which it will). As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 added 0.3%, a modest rebound after the index fell the most since March on Thursday; the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.5%.European stocks pared their losses while Asian markets closed week well in the green, except for Japan where not even continued BOJ dovishness and a collapsing yen is enough to support risk. Treasury yields retreated across the curve, after 10-year rates briefly climbed above 4.5% in early trading in Asia. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, with the Japanese yen and British pound leading declines among Group-of-10 currencies. Brent crude climbed 0.5% to $93.80 after a three-day drop. Gold and Bitcoin rose. In premarket trading, megacap tech stocks rose, set to rebound slightly after Thursday’s losses as US 10-year yields dipped slightly from highest since 2007. Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Nvidia were all in the green. Activision Blizzard gained 1.8% as Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of the gaming company looked set to clear its final regulatory hurdle. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Alibaba Group and other US-listed Chinese stocks are rallying, a day after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell to the lowest level since July. BABA is up 3.9%. Coeur Mining is up 5.2% after RBC upgrades to outperform from sector perform. Ralph Lauren shares are up 1.2%, after Raymond James started coverage on the apparel company with an outperform rating and $135 price target, writing that “expectations are relatively low for RL,” while the “below-average valuation creates an attractive entry point.” Roku shares are up 1.4% in premarket trading, after CFRA upgraded the streaming-video platform company to hold from sell. Scholastic shares fall 18% in US premarket trading after the children’s publishing company reported a larger-than-expected adjusted loss per share for the first quarter as the company spent on other areas of its business for growth, and flagged the seasonality of sales in its Education Solutions unit. Sales also declined. Wayfair gains 2.4% in premarket trading after Bernstein raises the online home-furnishings retailer to market perform from underperform, citing improving revenue growth and management’s positive messaging on margins. Global central banks this week stressed that they remain vigilant about the risks of inflation and warned investors against premature expectations of rate cuts. The increasing possibility that monetary policy will lead to recession is prompting investors to dump stocks at the fastest pace since December, BofA's Michael Hartnett said, who noted that equity funds had outflows of $16.9 billion in the week through Sept. 20. Hartnett warned that persistently high rates could lead to a hard economic landing in 2024, and result in “pops and busts” in financial markets. “What matters more than Fed hikes themselves is whether a recession occurs or not,” said Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. “It would be a remarkable accomplishment if it were avoided, yet that seems unlikely. If a recession were to happen, the equity market is not prepared for it.” The latest evidence of resilience in the US labor market reinforced the case for the Fed’s stance of holding interest rates higher for longer. Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since January last week, figures out Thursday showed. “The prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer has given investors a lingering headache and sentiment has worsened as the week progressed,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “Many investors had hoped we would approach the end of 2023 with a clearer picture on when interest rates will start to be cut. That scenario has now been muddied by comments from the Fed that it is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and keep a restrictive policy until there are clear signs that inflation is moving back to target levels.” Always an outlier, amid a hawkish barrage of central bank announcements, overnight the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates, its 10-year yield target and forward guidance unchanged. The central bank reiterated its expectation that inflation is decelerating. European stocks were lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% and almost all sectors in the red. Construction, retail and real estate are the worst performers.  In individual moves in Europe, Adevinta ASA soared after the classifieds company said it received a takeover proposal from private equity investors including Blackstone Inc. and Permira. Meanwhile there were fresh signs of frailty in the euro-area economy Friday as figures showed private-sector activity in France and Germany continued to shrink in September. Here are the most notable European movers: Adevinta shares surge as much as 24% after the European classifieds company confirms it received a takeover offer from Permira and Blackstone, with analysts saying any deal is likely to be at a price well above where the stock is trading. The move also lifts peers including Rightmove and Auto Trader. Ascential shares jump as much as 12%, most since Jan. 25, after earnings that showed a strong performance in the UK firm’s events business, according to Citigroup. Ubisoft shares gain as much as 4.2% on Friday after the UK’s antitrust regulator said a revised proposal from Microsoft to sell some gaming rights to the French video-game maker opens the door for its Activision acquisition to be cleared. BioGaia shares rise as much as 8.6%, the most since April, after Handelsbanken raised its recommendation for the Swedish probiotics firm to buy, saying share price now reflects warranted concerns over customer demand and tough comparables in its 3Q report. Jungheinrich shares gain as much as 3.2% after Barclays initiated coverage of the warehouse machinery company with an ‘overweight’ rating, citing an attractive valuation. Dutch lenders ABN Amro -4.3% and ING Groep -5.2% slide after the parliament’s lower house approved a proposal to increase bank tax to support lower-income households. Alten shares fall as much as 7.8%, the most since January, after the engineering and technology consulting firm reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profitability due to lower activity levels and higher operating expenses. Var Energi shares drop as much as 7.6% as the co’s offering of 157.3m shares by holder prices via Barclays Bank Ireland, DNB Bank, Morgan Stanley & Co. International, SpareBank 1 Markets. Italgas shares decline as much as 2.8%, touching its lowest level since late October, after a placement of about 14.5m shares offered on behalf of buyers of exchangeable bonds who wish to sell shares to hedge market risk, according to terms of the deal seen by Bloomberg. Solutions 30 shares drop as much as 21% after the French technology-services company reported a wider first-half loss and a narrower profit margin. Earlier in the session, Asian stock retraced early declines and closed in the green. Chinese shares rallied, a move that likely reflects “short covering on expectations of more policy support measures over the weekend, just like the government’s moves in every weekend this month,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at Uob Kay Hian Hong Kong Limited. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off early jitters amid supportive measures including Beijing’s draft rules to promote a high level of opening up and encourage foreign investments, while China's market regulator also issued measures to promote the private economy. Japan's Nikkei 225 was pressured following the mostly firmer-than-expected Japanese CPI data but then pared some of the losses following the lack of hawkish surprises from the BoJ. Australia's ASX 200 was dragged lower with real estate and tech among the worst performers after the Australian 10yr yield touched its highest level since 2014, while the flash PMI data was mixed and showed a deeper contraction in manufacturing. In FX, the Japanese yen and British pound are rooted to the bottom of the G-10 rankings today. The yen added to its post-BOJ fall as Governor Ueda tempered expectations they were close to raising interest rates - USD/JPY rises 0.4% to trade near 148.20. Sterling slipped 0.4% after UK retail sales and composite PMI both fell short of estimates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. EURUSD dropped 0.4% to 1.0615, lowest since March 17, after French manufacturing and services PMIs came in below estimates; currency pared losses after German PMI data came stronger-than-expected In rates, 10-year yields fall 2bps to 4.47% after touching a new cycle high above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 during Asian trading hours. The US session includes the first Fed speakers since Wednesday’s policy decision. Yields are lower by 1bp-2bp with curve spreads little changed on the day; in 10-year sector bunds trade cheaper by ~2.5bp vs Treasuries while gilts keep pace. Futures block trade of 5-year contracts at 6:35am New York time appeared consistent with a seller. Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far and expected to be muted; weekly volume stands at around $16b, in line with estimates for $15b to $20b. US economic data slate includes September S&P manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45am. In commodities, oil rose, in part supported by news that Russia would ban exports of diesel-type fuel and gasoline; crude futures advanced, with WTI rising 1% to trade near $90.50. European natural gas prices fell as Chevron and labor unions in Australia agreed to end strikes at major export plants that roiled the market for more than a month. Spot gold adds 0.3%. At 8:50 a.m., Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will give a keynote address at a National Bureau of Economic Research event. At 9:45 a.m., we’ll get the latest reading on S&P Global’s manufacturing and services gauges. San Francisco Fed Mary Daly will speak in a fireside chat at 1 p.m., and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will appear in a separate event at the same time. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,378.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 453.29 Nikkei down 0.5% to 32,402.41 Topix down 0.3% to 2,376.27 Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 18,057.45 Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,132.43 Sensex down 0.1% to 66,136.23 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,068.84 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,508.13 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.72% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0642 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $93.64/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,926.57 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.23% to 105.60 MXAP up 0.3% to 159.89 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 496.80 Top Overnight News The BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged, capping a week of central bank decisions that have roiled financial markets. Kazuo Ueda said the distance toward ending the YCC program and negative rate regime hasn't changed much. Market watchers expect the yen to drop toward 150 per dollar, with intervention possible as it nears that level. BBG China is considering relaxing foreign ownership caps in listed local companies to lure global funds back to its stock market, people familiar said. The country currently caps it at 30%, and subjects a single foreign shareholder to a 10% limit. BBG JPM will include Indian gov’t bonds in its emerging market index, a move that could trigger billions of inflows to the market. Nikkei Euro-area private sector activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting the economy contracted in the current quarter. The composite PMI hit 47.1 in September, an improvement on August but still in contraction. While Germany's downturn eased, it deepened in France. UK figures showed the sharpest decline since January 2021. BBG European gas prices dropped after Chevron and labor unions resolved a dispute at key LNG facilities in Australia that began Sept. 8th. The agreement brings an end to strikes at the Gorgon and Wheatstone plants, which accounted for about 7% of the world's LNG supply last year. BBG Euro zone companies are finally absorbing wage pressures and the labor market has started to soften, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Thursday, suggesting inflation pressures from employee pay rises are finally subsiding. RTRS AAPL cools the pace of compensation increases for retail employees, the latest sign of the labor market easing. BBG Hollywood studios will continue negotiations w/the WGA on Friday amid hopes for a breakthrough that settles the strike relatively soon. WaPo AMZN confirmed recent media reports with a plan to begin running advertisements inside its Prime Video content. The company will sell an ad-free upgrade option for Prime members who pay an additional $2.99/month (given that Prime cost $14.99 per month, this is effectively a ~20% price hike in the US for people who want to keep ads out of their content). WSJ A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed amid a higher yield environment and after this week’s central bank frenzy culminated with a lack of surprises from the BoJ. ASX 200 was dragged lower with real estate and tech among the worst performers after the Australian 10yr yield touched its highest level since 2014, while the flash PMI data was mixed and showed a deeper contraction in manufacturing. Nikkei 225 was pressured following the mostly firmer-than-expected Japanese CPI data but then pared some of the losses following the lack of hawkish surprises from the BoJ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off early jitters amid supportive measures including Beijing’s draft rules to  promote a high level of opening up and encourage foreign investments, while China's market regulator also issued measures to promote the private economy. Top Asian News China mulls easing foreign stake limits to lure global funds, via Bloomberg. PBoC releases list for systemic important banks; will promote stable operations and healthy development of systemically important banks, according to Reuters. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng said China remains committed to opening itself up to the wider world and to an independent foreign policy, while it stays committed to safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to Reuters. China's market regulator issued measures to promote the private economy and China will continue to break down market access barriers for the private economy, according to state media. Japanese PM Kishida said he will reform the asset management sector and will introduce a new programme to assist new entrants to the asset management sector. Furthermore, Kishida said it is important for FX to move stably, reflecting economic fundamentals. European bourses are mostly lower, but have trimmed the losses seen at the cash open. The main macro story for the region thus far has been the flash PMI prints for September. Sectors in Europe are mostly lower with the exception of Basic Resources which is in marginally positive territory thanks to underlying metals prices. On the downside, the Construction & Materials sector lags. US futures are trading slightly firmer following the biggest US stock drop since March, in yesterday's session. Top European News UK Recession Risk Grows as Companies Cut Staff at a Sharp Pace Dutch Lenders Slide After Parliament Approves Bank Tax Increase European Stocks Slide on Interest Rate Woes; Dutch Banks Slide Dutch Lenders Slide as Parliament Approves Share Buyback Tax Grim Euro-Area Private Sector Suggests Quarterly Contraction Alten Falls as Profit Dragged by Expenses, Lower Activity Level Vodafone in Negotiations to Sell Spanish Business to Zegona FX DXY is on a firmer footing following the uneventful BoJ decision overnight coupled with weakness from the EUR post-PMI. EUR and GBP both declined following overall downbeat PMI data in which the overarching theme was growth concerns. USD/JPY hit a high of 148.42 after the BoJ announcement overnight which offered no hawkish surprises whilst Governor Ueda repeated that the central bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary. Antipodeans outperform in tandem with optimism surrounding China which has also propped up commodities. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1729 vs exp. 7.3009 (prev. 7.1730) Fixed Income Debt futures faded from post-French PMI peaks and never really threatened best levels again. Bunds returned to flat on the day within a 130.19-129.50 range and OATs recently dipped below par between 124.87-124.21 parameters, while Gilts are holding above 96.00 having reached 96.37 from their 95.65 early Liffe low. T-note is closer to 108-19+ overnight high than 108-09 base awaiting the fate of preliminary US PMIs and Fed rhetoric from Daly, Cook and Kashkari with an element of pre-weekend short covering probably in mind. Commodities WTI and Brent November futures are choppy in the European morning, with the complex swayed by mixed flash PMI data from France and Germany, with price action within yesterday’s range but underpinned by Russia’s gasoline and diesel export ban which came into effect yesterday. Dutch TTF is on a firmer footing despite Chevron’s Australia LNG workers suspending industrial action after reaching a deal. The upside for the complex could emanate from the Russian gasoline/diesel export ban, whilst recent reports also suggested firmer Chinese LNG demand. Metals are resilient to the firmer Dollar with spot gold rising from a 1,919.12/oz low, above its 200 DMA (1,925.29/oz) to a high just shy of its 50 DMA (1,929.58/oz). Base metals meanwhile have rebounded and trimmed a bulk of yesterday’s losses, with some citing optimism of a Chinese economic rebound amid recent stimulus measures, with desks also pointing to restocking ahead of China’s 8-day long holiday commencing next Friday. Australian unions agreed to endorse recommendations made by the industrial umpire to end the dispute with Chevron (CVX) and agreed to call off strikes at Chevron facilities. Chevron (CVX) Australia spokesperson says unions have advised the Co. and the Fair Work Commission that industrial action has been suspended. Russian Kremlin said the fuel export ban will last for as long as necessary to ensure stability of the fuel market, according to Reuters. Russia's Kremlin said there has been no progress on the Black Sea grain deal issue, with no talks between the Russian and Turkish presidents scheduled, according to Reuters. Geopolitics Belarus Defence Ministry announces that Belarus and Russia are to commence joint military drills, according to Reuters. US President Biden said in a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky that Russia alone stands in the way of peace and Russia is seeking more weapons from Iran and North Korea, while he added that Russia hopes to use winter as a weapon against the Ukrainian people. Biden announced USD 325mln of security aid for Ukraine and that the first US Abrams tanks would be delivered to Ukraine next week. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they reached an agreement to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and that the US will help Ukraine boost air defence during the winter, while they agreed on steps to expand exports of grain from Ukraine, according to Reuters. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng said China supports all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis and stands ready to continue playing a constructive role for an early attainment of peace, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.7, prior 50.5 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 48.2, prior 47.9 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.4, prior 50.2 Central Bank Speakers 08:50: Fed’s Cook Speaks at NBER AI Conference 13:00: Fed’s Daly to Discuss Monetary Policy, Economy 13:00: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets experienced another big sell-off yesterday, with longer-dated yields hitting new highs for the cycle across several countries. In fact, the US 10yr Treasury yield has surpassed the 4.5% mark in trading overnight, which is the first time that’s happened since 2007. And the moves haven’t just been confined to Treasuries, since Bloomberg’s global aggregate bond index closed at its lowest level of 2023 so far yesterday. Meanwhile for equities, the losses gathered pace towards the end of the session, and the S&P 500 (-1.64%) experienced its worst day since March. In large part, those moves have been driven by the prospect that central banks are likely to keep policy rates in restrictive territory for longer than previously thought. That was prompted initially by the Fed’s hawkish dot plot on Wednesday. But the sell-off then got fresh momentum yesterday from theUS weekly jobless claims, which came in at their lowest since January at 201k. That pushed the 4-week moving average to its lowest level since March, offering further evidence that this strength doesn’t just look like a blip. That backdrop led to an intense bond sell-off, since the strong labour market data suggested that any rate cuts were still some way off. By the close yesterday, the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.7bps) was at a post-2007 high of 4.494%, and it remains there overnight after coming down slightly from the 4.5% mark. At the same time, the 10yr real yield (+6.6bps) also hit a post-2009 high of 2.11%. Yesterday’s rise was even stronger at the long-end, with the 30yr yield seeing its sharpest rise since April, up +12.8bps to 4.57%. That said, front-end yields actually fell on the day, with the 2yr yield ending the day -3.1bps lower at 5.15%. As a result, the 2s10s slope saw its most significant steepening since the March banking stress (to -65.4bps), and overnight it’s steepened a bit further to -63.9bps. Over in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.5bps) hitting their highest intraday level since 2011 at one point, although they then pared back those gains somewhat to close at 2.73%. This rise in nominal and real yields meant that equities continued to struggle, and the S&P 500 (-1.64%) seeing its worst day since March and closing at its lowest level in nearly 3 months. It also means that we’ve now had a 5% sell-off in the index since its recent peak at end-July, which is the first time since the SVB sell-off in March that we’ve experienced a decline of that magnitude. At the same time, the VIX index of volatility rose for a 5th consecutive day, up a further +2.4pts to 17.5pts, which is its highest level in a month. The NASDAQ saw an even sharper loss (-1.82%). Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.56%) is now in technical correction territory, having shed more than -10% since its peak in end-July. And over in Europe there were losses across the continent, with the STOXX 600 down -1.37%. Overnight in Asia, the main story is that the Bank of Japan has left policy unchanged at their latest meeting, in line with expectations. We’ll have to see what Governor Ueda says in the press conference, but so far the Japanese Yen has weakened -0.30% against the dollar overnight, since the ongoing stimulus has put further pressure on the Yen. Ahead of the decision, the latest CPI numbers for August were also stronger than expected, with headline CPI at +3.2% (vs. +3.0% expected). Following the decision, Japanese equities have pared back some of their earlier losses, but the Nikkei is still down -0.38%. But outside of Japan the picture has been more mixed, with losses for the KOSPI (-0.41%), but gains for the Hang Seng (+1.21%), the CSI 300 (+1.03%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.77%). Looking forward, there’s also been a stabilisation in US equity futures, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.17% overnight . The other important news overnight has been from the September flash PMIs. In Japan, they’ve weakened relative to August, with the composite PMI down to 51.8, which is its lowest level since February. But in Australia, there’s been a recovery in the composite PMI, which has risen to a 3-month high of 50.2. So all eyes will be on the US and European numbers later to see the direction of travel as we come to the end of Q3. Elsewhere yesterday, t he Bank of England kept their policy rate on hold at 5.25%, which ended a run of 14 successive hikes. It was a narrow 5-4 vote among the committee, with 4 of the members preferring a 25bp hike, and their statement still signalled the potential for more hikes. For instance, it said that “Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.” The other important development came with regards to quantitative tightening, where they voted to reduce the gilt portfolio by £100bn over the year from October, taking the total down to £658bn . For markets, the decision to leave rates unchanged came as something of a surprise, since swaps had been pricing in a 63% likelihood of a hike immediately prior to the decision. As a result, sterling fell against both the US dollar (-0.37%) and the Euro (-0.39%). However, gilt yields followed a pattern similar to the rest of Europe, with a noticeable steepening amidst rises in both the 2yr (+2.5bps) and the 10yr yield (+9.0bps). Looking forward, our UK economist thinks it’s more likely than not that rates have peaked. See his full recap here. Central banks were in the spotlight elsewhere yesterday, with decisions in several other European countries. In Sweden, the Riksbank raised their policy rate to 4%, in line with expectations. Likewise in Norway, the Norges Bank hiked by 25bps to 4.25%, and Governor Bache said “There will likely be one additional policy rate hike, most probably in December”. However, in Switzerland, the SNB left rates unchanged at 1.75%, contrary to the consensus of economists who expected a 25bp hike. As a result, the Swiss Franc was the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, weakening by -0.66% against the US Dollar . Looking at yesterday’s other data, US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 4.04m in August (vs. 4.10m expected), leaving them at a 7-month low. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Leading Index fell by -0.4%, marking its 17th consecutive monthly decline. To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the September flash PMIs from Europe and the US, along with UK retail sales for August. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, along with the Fed’s Cook, Daly and Kashkari. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 08:20.....»»

Chevron LNG Workers End Strike In Australia Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com, The Offshore Alliance trade union has called off a strike at two Chevron LNG projects in Australia after the country’s labor market regulator mediated a settlement between the parties. The strike began on September 8 after they failed to reach an agreement with Chevron about working conditions and wage demands. "The Offshore Alliance will now work with Chevron to finalise the drafting of the agreement and members will soon cease current industrial action," the union said, as quoted by Reuters. Because of the dispute between Chevron and workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects, LNG prices jumped 35% in August and remain highly volatile as autumn begins and importers step up buying for the winter heating season. The Gorgon project has a capacity of 15.6 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually, while the Wheatstone facility can produce 8.9 million tons annually. Together, the two account for over 5% of global LNG production capacity, hence the effect on gas prices. A third Australian LNG project was also under threat of industrial action in August but its operator, Woodside Energy, managed to negotiate a deal with the Offshore Alliance. The North West Shelf is the largest LNG production facility in the country, with a capacity of 16.9 million tons of liquefied gas annually. Even with the danger of supply disruptions now over, however, the LNG market remains volatile because of the surge in demand from Europe last year as it sought to replace Russian pipeline gas with alternative supplies. This year, it has been buying gas less frantically but it has filled its gas storage well ahead of schedule and might need to resort to floating storage to lock in more supply for the winter since the available storage does not cover all consumption. Meanwhile, however, China is stepping up its LNG buying ahead of winter, too, intensifying competition for limited supply. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 08:35.....»»

Commercials Set To Invade Amazon Prime Video Unless You Pay New 'Ad Free' Fee  Amazon Prime announced Friday morning a new plan to start placing "limited advertisements" in TV shows and movies unless customers pay an extra monthly fee.  "To continue investing in compelling content and keep increasing that investment over a long period of time, starting in early 2024, Prime Video shows and movies will include limited advertisement," an Amazon press release read.  The e-commerce giant said its streaming platform would have "fewer ads than linear TV and other streaming TV providers," and ads in Prime Video will be introduced across the US, UK, Germany, and Canada in early 2024. Then, customers in France, Italy, Spain, Mexico, and Australia will see ads in the second half of the year.  Prime Video customers who want the luxury of no ads must pay a new ad-free option for an additional $2.99 per month. Current pricing in the US for Prime memberships is around $14.99 per month, or about $139 per year if paid annually.  The Verge noted, "The introduction of ads comes at a time when Amazon is undergoing cost-cutting across the company, and arrive as price increases and ad-supported tiers launch on competing streaming services."  Amazon already runs ads elsewhere: Its Freevee service, which doesn't require a subscription, allows users to watch movies and TV shows. However, viewers will be bombarded with ads in exchange for free content.  Minimal ad load on streaming platforms has been the norm since debuting a decade ago. The fear is that Prime and others will become too aggressive in monetization.  The days of streaming platforms charging bargain-basement prices in pursuit of fast growth are over.  Source: WSJWe noted last month that 'streamflation' has led to a revolt of Disney+ and Hulu customers as prices are set to hike next month.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 08:50.....»»

Quantitative Tightening Is Not Biggest Threat To Global Yields Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, The Bank of England’s quantitative tightening program shows that unwinding central-bank bond portfolios, even with outright sales, need not be disruptive for markets. The greater risk for US and global yields comes from positive stock-bond correlations driving risk premia wider. The BOE has been a pioneer and a thought leader in QT. While the Fed and ECB have only allowed bonds to run off naturally to help achieve their balance-sheet contraction goals, the BOE has sold gilts outright in addition to allowing bonds to mature. So far, it has not led to any significant market disruption. This enabled the BOE Thursday to increase the pace of reduction in the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) from £80 billion last year to £100 billion over the coming 12 months from October (while holding Bank Rate steady). As colleague Ven Ram also noted, the schedule of maturing bonds next year allowed the bank to keep gilts sales unchanged from last year while increasing the total amount of the APF’s decrease. The QT watchwords from the bank are “gradual and predictable.” If gilt sales are conducted in such a way, then market disruption should be minimized. The chart below shows the BOE’s own assessment of the impact of bond sales on the market. The BOE estimates that of the ~40 bps of term-premium increase since the MPC voted to begin QT in February 2022, about 10-15 bps comes from QT specifically – small in comparison to the overall rise in yields since that time. QT or bond sales, though, are not the most critical risk facing bond prices in the current cycle. Rising and now positive stock-bond correlations threaten to lead to a structural rise in bond risk premium, and lower prices. The correlation is now positive in the US, Japan, and the UK. In a positive stock-bond correlation world, bonds lose their portfolio-hedge and recession-hedge capabilities, and thus become less sought after. The penny has not fully dropped yet, but the negative term premium for bonds is increasing, and is prone to rising much higher as they become less desirable. Yields of developed market countries are biased structurally higher, but QT is unlikely to be the culprit. Instead, it allows central banks to reload their capacity for a future time when they may need to restart quantitative easing, in order to stabilize the market from sharply rising term premia. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 09:10.....»»

Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez, Wife Indicted Over Gold Bar And Other Bribery Schemes Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and his wife Nadine have been indicted in New York for allegedly accepting bribes in relation to an allegedly corrupt relationship they had with three businessmen from their home state. The indictment also charges three businessmen, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes. "Those bribes included cash, gold, payments toward a home mortgage, compensation for a low-or-no-show job, a luxury vehicle, and other things of value," reads the indictment. Daibes, a developer and former bank chairman, allegedly gave Menendez gold bars valued at approximately $400,000, in exchange for assistance in a case in which he faced federal bank charges. Instead of facing over 10 years in prison, Daibes, a felon, only ended up serving probation after striking an agreement with the US Attorney's Office in New Jersey. "For purposes of the Federal Extortion Act, it makes no difference if the senator took an official act so long as he accepted the money and there was knowledge the money was in exchange for that official influence, even if he never carried out what he had promised he would do," according to NBC Legal Analyst Danny Cevallos. Menendez disclosed that his family had accepted gold bars in 2020. Daibes encountered bank fraud charges that could have netted him up to a decade in prison for lying about a nearly $2 million loan from Mariner's Bank, where Daibes served as chairman. Last year, however, New Jersey's U.S. Attorney's Office agreed to let Daibes plead guilty to one count and serve probation. They said Daibes had repaid the loan. -Fox News According to the report, Menendez, 69, is 'close' with US Attorney Philip Sellinger - having supported him for the position, while Sellinger had previously raised funds for Menendez's campaign. Bob Menendez and wife Nadine Officials are also looking at whether Menendez, the former Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, or his wife, had improperly received gifts from a New Jersey food processor who obtained an exclusive contract with the Egyptian government to certify halal food experts around the world. Egyptian officials and the New Jersey businessman who received the contract were hosted by Menendez in his office in 2018, according to the Wall Street Journal. A year later, the businessman became the "sole certifier of halal meat exported from the U.S. to Egypt," the outlet noted. NBC News 4 said the gifts included the usage of a Mercedes and a luxury Washington, D.C., apartment. Investigators are attempting to resolve if Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, used his standing to help the man secure the contract. -Fox News According to the indictment, Menendez provided 'sensitive US Government information to Egypt.' Indictment says this info wasn't classified, but was "highly sensitive." And it was shared very shortly after Menendez allegedly sought it. pic.twitter.com/GQPqXdLgYB — Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) September 22, 2023 Menendez and his wife are charged with three counts: conspiracy to commit bribery, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud, and conspiracy to commit extortion under color of official right. In June of last year, federal agents searched Menendez's New Jersey home, where they found "fruits" of the pair's "corrupt bribery agreement" with the three businessman - including over $480,000 in cash, some of which was stuffed in envelopes, and $70,000 in Nadine Menendez's safe deposit box. They also found gold bars worth over $100,000, "provided by either Hana or Daibes." In the months before his office admitted he was under federal investigation, Menendez's wife sold up to $400,000 in gold bars between April 7, 2022 and June 16, 2022. A press event will be held today at 11:00 a.m. to announce the unsealing of an indictment charging Robert Menendez, U.S. Senator from New Jersey, and his wife, Nadine Menendez, with bribery offenses in connection with their corrupt relationship with three New Jersey businessmen. pic.twitter.com/CLTXnU0mAm — US Attorney SDNY (@SDNYnews) September 22, 2023 This is hardly the first time Menendez has been under federal criminal investigation. If we’ve learned anything from DOJ this year, it’s that if you’re going to take gold or diamonds from foreigners in exchange for official acts, your last name had better be Biden. — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) September 22, 2023 Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 09:30.....»»